Longitudinal trends in HbA1c patterns and association with outcomes: A systematic review

Heterogeneity in glycaemic control in children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes: A latent class trajectory analysis of Danish nationwide data

AIMS

Suboptimal glycaemic control in children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes is prevalent and associated with increased risk of diabetes-related complications and mortality later in life. First, we aimed to identify distinct glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) trajectories in children and adolescents (2-19 years) with type 1 diabetes. Second, we examined their associations with clinical and socio-demographic factors.

METHODS

Data were obtained from the Danish Registry of Childhood and Adolescent Diabetes (DanDiabKids) comprising all Danish children and adolescents diagnosed with type 1 diabetes from 1996 to 2019. Subgroups of distinct mean trajectories of HbA1c were identified using data-driven latent class trajectory modelling.

RESULTS

A total of 5889 children (47% female) had HbA1c measured a median of 6 times (interquartile range 3-8) and contributing to 36,504 measurements. We identified four mean HbA1c trajectories, referred to as 'Stable but elevated HbA1c' (83%), 'Increasing HbA1c' (5%), 'Late HbA1c peak' (7%), and 'Early HbA1c peak' (5%). Compared to the 'Stable but elevated HbA1c' group, the three other groups presented rapidly deteriorating glycaemic control during late childhood or adolescence, had higher HbA1c at study entry, and included fewer pump users, higher frequency of inadequate blood glucose monitoring, more severe hypoglycaemic events, lower proportions with Danish origin, and worse educational status of parents. The groups also represented significant differences by healthcare region.

CONCLUSIONS

Children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes experience heterogenous trajectories with different timings and magnitudes of the deterioration of HbA1c levels, although the majority follow on average a stable, yet elevated HbA1c trajectory. The causes and long-term health implications of these heterogenous trajectories need to be addressed.

The relationship between glycated haemoglobin and blood glucose-lowering treatment trajectories in type 2 diabetes: The Fremantle Diabetes Study Phase II

AIMS

To examine the relationships between glycaemia and treatment complexity over 6 years in well-characterized community-based people with type 2 diabetes.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Fremantle Diabetes Study Phase II participants who had type 2 diabetes with glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) and blood glucose-lowering therapy (BGLT) data over 6 years were included. Group-based multi-trajectory modelling identified combined HbA1c/BGLT trajectory subgroups for diabetes durations of ≤1.0 year (Group 1; n = 160), >1.0 to 10.0 years (Group 2; n = 382;) and >10.0 years (Group 3; n = 357). Multinomial regression was used to identify baseline associates of subgroup membership.

RESULTS

The optimum numbers of trajectory subgroups were three in Group 1 (low, medium, high) and four in Groups 2 and 3 (low, low/high medium, high). Each low trajectory subgroup maintained a mean HbA1c concentration of <53 mmol/mol (<7.0%) on lifestyle measures, or monotherapy (Group 3). All five medium subgroups had stable HbA1c trajectories at <58 mmol/mol (<7.5%) but required increasing oral BGLT, or insulin (Group 3, high medium). The Group 1 high subgroup showed a falling then increasing HbA1c with steady progression to insulin. The high subgroups in Groups 2 and 3 showed stable HbA1c profiles at means of approximately 64 mmol/mol (8.0%) and 86 mmol/L (10.0%), respectively, on insulin. Non-Anglo Celt ethnicity, central obesity and hypertriglyceridaemia were strongly associated with Group 1 high subgroup membership. Younger age at diagnosis and central obesity were independent associates of the most adverse HbA1c trajectories in Groups 2 and 3.

CONCLUSIONS

These data demonstrate diabetes duration-dependent heterogeneity in glycaemic and treatment profiles and related clinical and laboratory variables, which have implications for management.

Risk factors associated with glycated hemoglobin A1c trajectories progressing to type 2 diabetes

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

The notion of prediabetes, defined by the ADA as glycated hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) of 5.7-6.4%, implies increased vascular inflammatory and immunologic processes and higher risk for developing diabetes mellitus and major cardiovascular events. We aimed to determine the risk factors associated with rapid progression of normal and prediabetes patients to type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study in a single 8-hospital health system in southeast Michigan, between 2006 and 2020. All patients with HbA1c <6.5% at baseline and at least 2 other HbA1c measurements were clustered in five trajectories encompassing more than 95% of the study population. Multivariate linear regression analysis was performed to examine the association of demographic and comorbidities with HbA1c trajectories progressing to diabetes.

RESULTS

A total of 5,347 prediabetic patients were clustered based on their HbA1c progression (C1: 4,853, C2: 253, C66: 102, C12: 85, C68: 54). The largest cluster (C1) had a baseline median HbA1c value of 6.0% and exhibited stable HbA1c levels in prediabetic range across all subsequent years. The smallest cluster (C68) had the lowest median baseline HbA1c value and also remained stable across subsequent years. The proportion of normal HbA1c in each of the pre-diabetic trajectories ranged from 0 to 12.7%, whereas 81.5% of the reference cluster (C68) were normal HbA1c at baseline. The C2 (steady rising) trajectory was significantly associated with BMI (adj OR 1.10, 95%CI 1.03-1.17), and family history of DM (adj OR 2.75, 95%CI 1.32-5.74). With respect to the late rising trajectories, baseline BMI was significantly associated with both C66 and C12 trajectory (adj OR 1.10, 95%CI 1.03-1.18) and (adj OR 1.13, 95%CI 1.05-1.23) respectively, whereas, the C12 trajectory was also significantly associated with age (adj OR 1.62, 95%CI 1.04-2.53) and history of MACE (adj OR 3.20, 95%CI 1.14-8.93).

CONCLUSIONS

We suggest that perhaps a more aggressive preventative approach should be considered in patients with a family history of T2DM who have high BMI and year-to-year increase in HbA1c, whether they have normal hemoglobin A1c or they have prediabetes.KEY MESSAGESProgression to diabetes from normal or prediabetic hemoglobin A1c within four years is associated with baseline BMI.A steady rise in HbA1c during a four-year period is associated with age and family history of T2DM, whereas age and personal history of MACE are associated with a rapid rise in HbA1c.A more aggressive preventative approach should be considered in patients with a family history of T2DM who have high BMI and year-to-year increase in HbA1c.

Longitudinal trajectories of glycemic control among U.S. Adults with newly diagnosed diabetes

AIMS

To identify longitudinal trajectories of glycemic control among adults with newly diagnosed diabetes, overall and by diabetes type.

METHODS

We analyzed claims data from OptumLabs® Data Warehouse for 119,952 adults newly diagnosed diabetes between 2005 and 2018. We applied a novel Mixed Effects Machine Learning model to identify longitudinal trajectories of hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) over 3 years of follow-up and used multinomial regression to characterize factors associated with each trajectory.

RESULTS

The study population was comprised of 119,952 adults with newly diagnosed diabetes, including 696 (0.58%) with type 1 diabetes. Among patients with type 1 diabetes, 52.6% were diagnosed at very high HbA1c, partially improved, but never achieved control; 32.5% were diagnosed at low HbA1c and deteriorated over time; and 14.9% had stable low HbA1c. Among patients with type 2 diabetes, 67.7% had stable low HbA1c, 14.4% were diagnosed at very high HbA1c, partially improved, but never achieved control; 10.0% were diagnosed at moderately high HbA1c and deteriorated over time; and 4.9% were diagnosed at moderately high HbA1c and improved over time.

CONCLUSIONS

Claims data identified distinct longitudinal trajectories of HbA1c after diabetes diagnosis, which can be used to anticipate challenges and individualize care plans to improve glycemic control.

Glycated haemoglobin trajectories and one-year risk of potentially avoidable hospitalisations among adult type 2 diabetes patients seeking care at specialist outpatient clinics of a tertiary hospital: a cohort study

AIM

To evaluate the association between trajectories of glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) and potentially avoidable hospitalisations (PAH).

METHODS

We performed a cohort study in a tertiary hospital in Singapore among adult type 2 diabetes patients with ≥3HbA1c tests over two years. Then, we followed up for one year after the last HbA1c reading. Glycaemic control was analysed by (1)HbA1c trajectories through group-based trajectory modelling, and (2)mean HbA1c. PAH was defined using the Agency of Healthcare Research and Quality criteria, categorising as overall, acute, chronic, diabetes-composites.

RESULTS

A total of 14923 patients (mean age:62.9±12.8 years;55.2% men)were included. Four HbA1c trajectories were observed; low-stable(n=9854,66.0%), moderate-stable(n=3125,20.9%), high-decrease(n=1017,6.8%) and high-persistent(n=927,6.2%). Compared to the low-stable trajectory, one-year risk ratio(RR) and 95%CI, respectively for moderate-stable, high-decrease and high-persistent trajectories were as follows:(1)overall PAH:1.15(1.00-1.31),1.53(1.31-1.80),1.96(1.58-2.43);(2)diabetes PAH:1.30(1.04-1.64),1.98(1.55-2.53),2.24(1.59-3.15);(3)acute PAH:1.14(0.90-1.44),1.29(0.95-1.77),1.75(1.17-2.62); and (4)chronic PAH:1.21(1.02-1.43),1.62(1.34-1.97),2.14(1.67-2.75). Mean HbA1c was significantly associated with overall and chronic-composites of PAH whilst evidence of a non-linear relationship with diabetes-composite of PAH was noted.

CONCLUSION

Patients with high-decrease trajectory had a risk lower than those with persistently-high HbA1c, highlighting that a greater risk of hospitalisation conferred by poor glycaemic control is potentially reversible. Determining HbA1c trajectories could help to identify the high-risk individuals for targeted and intensive management to improve care and reduce hospitalisations.

Associations between adoption of eHealth management module and optimal control of HbA1c in diabetes patients

In January 2021, the eHealth App was launched in Hong Kong by the Hong Kong government to support the Electronic Health Record Sharing System (eHRSS). A Health Management Module in the eHealth App introduced new functions to record blood pressure, blood sugar, and heart rate, and downloading and sharing records. This study aims to compare the level of glycaemic control between users of the eHealth App and non-users. Type 2 diabetes patients who have joined the eHRSS with existing haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) level records are recruited. Correlations between predictors and optimal HbA1c control (<7%) are examined using logistic regression analyses. A total of 109,823 participants are included, with 76,356 non-users of eHealth App, 31,723 users of eHealth App, and 1744 users of the eHealth Management Module together with the App. We collect HbA1c values from Jan 2021 to May 2022, and they are 6 months after the use of the App on average. Users of the eHealth Management Module are found to have more optimal HbA1c levels across all subgroups, with the strongest effect observed in younger females (aOR = 1.66, 95% CI = 1.27-2.17). eHealth App usage is also positively associated with optimal HbA1c levels, particularly amongst younger females (aOR = 1.17, 95% CI = 1.08-1.26). Overall, users of eHealth App and eHealth Management Module demonstrate more optimal HbA1c levels when compared with non-users, particularly among younger adults and females. These findings support its potential adoption in diabetes patients. Future studies should examine the impact of eHealth interventions on other clinical targets and diabetes complications.

Trajectory of glycated haemoglobin over time, using real-world data, in type 2 diabetes patients with obesity on a U-100 basal-bolus insulin regimen

AIMS

To identify patient clusters with poor glucose control among type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients with obesity who are receiving basal-bolus insulin and to identify the potential therapeutic inertia factors associated with poor control.

METHODS

Glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) trajectories across a 3-year period were structured at 6-month intervals for a retrospective cohort of T2DM patients with obesity on basal-bolus insulin from the Veterans' Health Administration database. Based on each patient's longitudinal HbA1c features, an unsupervised clustering procedure was used to determine the numbers of clusters and associated trajectory patterns. Multinomial logistic regression was used to examine the association between HbA1c trajectory clusters and patient characteristics/treatment patterns.

RESULTS

A total of 51 273 patients were included, of whom 11.2% were in a subgroup with persistent missingness of HbA1c values. For those with sufficient HbA1c observations, cluster analysis indicated six distinct HbA1c trajectories: stable low (35.8%); stable high (20.8%); descending low (10.5%); ascending low (10.2%); descending high (5.7%); and ascending high (5.7%). Being of Black ethnicity, not initiating noninsulin antihyperglycaemic agents (sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors, glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists or thiazolidinediones) or concentrated insulin, low adherence (measured by proportion of days covered), and reduced insulin prescription refills were factors associated with poorer HbA1c clusters; similar factors were associated with persistent HbA1c missingness.

CONCLUSION

The present study found the potential for therapeutic inertia among a significant proportion of T2DM patients with obesity on basal-bolus insulin. Subgrouping T2DM patients based on HbA1c missingness and HbA1c trajectories can inform disease management strategies.

Longitudinal HbA1c trajectory modelling reveals the association of HbA1c and risk of hospitalization for heart failure for patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus

BACKGROUND

Inconsistent conclusions in past studies on the association between poor glycaemic control and the risk of hospitalization for heart failure (HHF) have been reported largely due to the analysis of non-trajectory-based HbA1c values. Trajectory analysis can incorporate the effects of HbA1c variability across time, which may better elucidate its association with macrovascular complications. Furthermore, studies analysing the relationship between HbA1c trajectories from diabetes diagnosis and the occurrence of HHF are scarce.

METHODS

This is a prospective cohort study of the SingHealth Diabetes Registry (SDR). 17,389 patients diagnosed with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) from 2013 to 2016 with clinical records extending to the end of 2019 were included in the latent class growth analysis to extract longitudinal HbA1c trajectories. Association between HbA1c trajectories and risk of first known HHF is quantified with the Cox Proportional Hazards (PH) model.

RESULTS

5 distinct HbA1c trajectories were identified as 1. low stable (36.1%), 2. elevated stable (40.4%), 3. high decreasing (3.5%), 4. high with a sharp decline (10.8%), and 5. moderate decreasing (9.2%) over the study period of 7 years. Poorly controlled HbA1c trajectories (Classes 3, 4, and 5) are associated with a higher risk of HHF. Using the diabetes diagnosis time instead of a commonly used pre-defined study start time or time from recruitment has an impact on HbA1c clustering results.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings suggest that tracking the evolution of HbA1c with time has its importance in assessing the HHF risk of T2DM patients, and T2DM diagnosis time as a baseline is strongly recommended in HbA1c trajectory modelling. To the authors' knowledge, this is the first study to identify an association between HbA1c trajectories and HHF occurrence from diabetes diagnosis time.

Effect of SARS-CoV-2 Infection and Infection Severity on Longer-Term Glycemic Control and Weight in People With Type 2 Diabetes

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the association of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and severity of infection with longer-term glycemic control and weight in people with type 2 diabetes (T2D) in the U.S.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study using longitudinal electronic health record data of patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection from the National COVID Cohort Collaborative (N3C). Patients were ≥18 years old with an ICD-10 diagnosis of T2D and at least one HbA1c and weight measurement prior to and after an index date of their first coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) diagnosis or negative SARS-CoV-2 test. We used propensity scores to identify a matched cohort balanced on demographic characteristics, comorbidities, and medications used to treat diabetes. The primary outcome was the postindex average HbA1c and postindex average weight over a 1 year time period beginning 90 days after the index date among patients who did and did not have SARS-CoV-2 infection. Secondary outcomes were postindex average HbA1c and weight in patients who required hospitalization or mechanical ventilation.

RESULTS

There was no significant difference in the postindex average HbA1c or weight in patients who had SARS-CoV-2 infection compared with control subjects. Mechanical ventilation was associated with a decrease in average HbA1c after COVID-19.

CONCLUSIONS

In a multicenter cohort of patients in the U.S. with preexisting T2D, there was no significant change in longer-term average HbA1c or weight among patients who had COVID-19. Mechanical ventilation was associated with a decrease in HbA1c after COVID-19.

Trajectory and predictors of HbA1c in children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes-A Danish nationwide cohort study

OBJECTIVES

Poor glycemic control in type 1 diabetes increases the risk of chronic complications and it is essential to identify life periods and predictors associated with deteriorating HbA_1c . The aim was to describe specific HbA_1c trajectories in Danish children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes and study associations with clinical and sociodemographic factors.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

5889 children with type 1 diabetes were included from the nationwide Danish Registry of Childhood and Adolescent Diabetes with annual visits during 1996-2019. Trajectories of HbA_1c were modeled with linear mixed-effects models (using age as time scale, included as cubic spline) and with an individual-specific random intercept and slope. The following cofactors were included stepwise into the model: sex, age at diagnosis, calendar year, parental education, immigrant status, health care region, blood glucose monitoring (BGM) frequency, treatment modalities: continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion (pump) versus multiple daily insulin injection therapy (pen) and continuous glucose monitoring.

RESULTS

HbA_1c overall increased during age while there was a significant decreasing secular trend. Older age at diagnosis was associated with a steeper trajectory, and non-Danish origin and shorter parental education were each associated with higher levels of HbA_1c across age. A lower BGM frequency was associated with a markedly poorer HbA_1c trajectory, while no significant differences were shown for different treatment modalities.

CONCLUSIONS

Glycemic outcome worsened with age during childhood and adolescence, which is of clinical concern. Important predictors for a poorer glycemic trajectory were later age at diabetes diagnosis, shorter parental education, non-Danish origin and, in particular low BGM frequency.

Cardiovascular events after a dramatic reduction of HbA1c in hospitalized subjects with type 2 diabetes and high long-term glucose exposure

OBJECTIVE

In long-lasting diabetes, a dramatic reduction of HbA1c can precede adverse events such as worsening retinopathies or painful neuropathies. We have now analyzed its possible link with later cardiovascular events in subjects with type 2 diabetes, according to their long-term glucose exposure evaluated by skin autofluorescence (SAF) measured with an AGE-READER (Diagnoptics, Groningen, The Netherland).

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We studied retrospectively a cohort of patients hospitalized for uncontrolled and/or complicated type 2 diabetes from 2009 to 2017. A previous dramatic reduction of HbA1c was defined by more than -1.5 %/4 months, and later cardiovascular events as myocardial infarction, stroke, revascularization procedures, and cardiovascular-related death. Survival analyses were performed before and after categorizing the subjects for their SAF.

RESULTS

The 386 subjects were 57.5 % men, 62 ± 9 years old, with a 14 ± 9 years duration of diabetes, most were treated by insulin (63.7 %). The dramatic HbA1c reducers (-3.0 ± 1.5 %) represented 16.5 % of the population. During the 51 months (IQR: 30-71) of follow-up, 53 cardiovascular events occurred and were related to the SAF (2.70 ± 0.64 AUs). Linkage was established between the SAF, the reduction of HbA1c and the cardiovascular events (p = 0.017). With a SAF higher than the median (2.65 AUs), the dramatic reduction of HbA1c was related to later cardiovascular events (HR: 3.84, 95%CI: 1.68-8.76).

CONCLUSIONS

A dramatic decline of HbA1c leads to a higher risk of cardiovascular events in hospitalized subjects with type 2 diabetes and a high long-term glucose exposure.

Health Disparities Likely Emerge Early in the Course of Type-1 Diabetes in Youth

BACKGROUND

Type-1 diabetes (T1D) management and glycemic control the year after diagnosis affects the long-term trajectory of T1D. Disparities in hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) based on race, ethnicity, and socioeconomic status (SES) have been well-documented; however, there has been limited investigation into the timeline with which these disparities develop. This study aims to assess differences in HbA1c by race/ethnicity and SES among youth with T1D over 1 year post diagnosis.

METHODS

HbA1c at onset, and 3, 6, 9, and 12 months following diagnosis was collected from youth with T1D between 2016 and 2020. Mixed-effect models examined associations of HbA1c over time with race/ethnicity and SES.

RESULTS

Of 758 patients, 71% identified as white. Mean (± SD) HbA1c was 11.4% ± 2.2% at diagnosis and 7.3% ± 1.2%, 7.3% ± 1.3%, 7.7% ± 1.4%, and 7.9% ± 1.4% at 3, 6, 9, and 12 months, respectively. HbA1c trajectories over time differed significantly by race (adjusting for sex and zip-code education and poverty levels) with Hispanic and black youth demonstrating higher HbA1c 1 year after diagnosis (8.7% vs 7.7%, p < .001) than white youth.

CONCLUSIONS

These data revealed that youth did not meet glycemic targets at 1 year post diagnosis and that racial/ethnic minority youth had higher HbA1c 1 year post diagnosis, highlighting the need to optimize glycemic control and mitigate disparities early. Understanding the time course of these outcomes helps to inform the need for early interventions, particularly in disadvantaged patient populations, to lay the groundwork for improved control. Further research must also be done to better understand overlapping axes of disparities including race, ethnicity, and SES.

Data-driven long-term glycaemic control trajectories and their associated health and economic outcomes in Finnish patients with incident type 2 diabetes

Background

Treatments should be customized to patients to improve patients’ health outcomes and maximize the treatment benefits. We aimed to identify meaningful data-driven trajectories of incident type 2 diabetes patients with similarities in glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) patterns since diagnosis and to examine their clinical and economic relevance.

Materials and methods

A cohort of 1540 patients diagnosed in 2011–2012 was retrieved from electronic health records covering primary and specialized healthcare in the North Karelia region, Finland. EHRs data were compiled with medication purchase data. Average HbA1c levels, use of medications, and incidence of micro- and macrovascular complications and deaths were measured annually for seven years since T2D diagnosis. Trajectories were identified applying latent class growth models. Differences in 4-year cumulative healthcare costs with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated with non-parametric bootstrapping.

Results

Four distinct trajectories of HbA1c development during 7 years after T2D diagnosis were extracted: patients with “Stable, adequate” (66.1%), “Slowly deteriorating” (24.3%), and “Rapidly deteriorating” glycaemic control (6.2%) as well as “Late diagnosed” patients (3.4%). During the same period, 2.2 (95% CI 1.9–2.6) deaths per 100 person-years occurred in the “Stable, adequate” trajectory increasing to 3.2 (2.4–4.0) in the “Slowly deteriorating”, 4.7 (3.1–6.9) in the “Rapidly deteriorating” and 5.2 (2.9–8.7) in the “Late diagnosed” trajectory. Similarly, 3.5 (95% CI 3.0–4.0) micro- and macrovascular complications per 100 person-years occurred in the “Stable, adequate” trajectory increasing to 5.1 (4.1–6.2) in the “Slowly deteriorating”, 5.5 (3.6–8.1) in the “Rapidly deteriorating” and 7.3 (4.3–11.8) in the “Late diagnosed” trajectory. Patients in the “Stable, adequate” trajectory had lower accumulated 4-year medication costs than other patients.

Conclusions

Data-driven patient trajectories have clinical and economic relevance and could be utilized as a step towards personalized medicine instead of the common “one-fits-for-all” treatment practices.

Incidence and Characteristics of Remission of Type 2 Diabetes in England: A Cohort Study Using the National Diabetes Audit

OBJECTIVE

To assess the incidence of remission of type 2 diabetes in routine care settings.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

People with type 2 diabetes (HbA1c ≥48 mmol/mol [6.5%] or <48 mmol/mol [6.5%] with a prescription for glucose-lowering medications) alive on 1 April 2018 were identified from a national collation of health records in England and followed until 31 December 2019. Remission was defined as two HbA1c measurements of <48 mmol/mol (6.5%) at least 182 days apart, with no prescription for glucose-lowering medications 90 days before these measurements.

RESULTS

In 2,297,700 people with type 2 diabetes, the overall incidence of remission per 1,000 person-years was 9.7 (95% CI 9.6-9.8) and 44.9 (95% CI 44.0-45.7) in 75,610 (3.3%) people who were diagnosed <1 year. In addition to shorter duration of diagnosis, baseline factors associated with higher odds of remission were no prescription for glucose-lowering medication, lower HbA1c and BMI, BMI reduction, White ethnicity, female sex, and lower socioeconomic deprivation. Among 8,940 (0.4%) with characteristics associated with remission (diagnosed <2 years, HbA1c <53 mmol/mol [7.0%], prescribed metformin alone or no glucose-lowering medications, BMI reduction of ≥10%), incidence of remission per 1,000 person-years was 83.2 (95% CI 78.7-87.9).

CONCLUSIONS

Remission of type 2 diabetes was generally infrequent in routine care settings but may be a reasonable goal for a subset of people who lose a significant amount of weight shortly after diagnosis. Policies that encourage intentional remission of type 2 diabetes should seek to reduce the ethnic and socioeconomic inequalities identified.

Machine learning based study of longitudinal HbA1c trends and their association with all-cause mortality: Analyses from a National Diabetes Registry

OBJECTIVE

The association of long-term HbA1c variability with mortality has been previously suggested. However, the significance of HbA1c variability and trends in different age and HbA1c categories is unclear.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Data on patients with diabetes listed in the Israeli National Diabetes Registry during years 2012-2016 (observation period) were collected. Patients with >4 HbA1c measurements, type 1 diabetes, eGFR < 30mg/ml/min, persistent HbA1c < 6% or malignancy were excluded. Utilizing machine learning methods, patients were classified into clusters according to their HbA1c trend (increasing, stable, decreasing). Mortality risk during 2017-2019 was calculated in subgroups defined by age (35-54, 55-69, 70-89 years) and last HbA1c (≤7% and >7%) at end of observation period. Models were adjusted for demographic, clinical and laboratory measurements including HbA1c, standard deviation (SD) of HbA1c and HbA1c trend.

RESULTS

This historical cohort study included 293,314 patients. Increased HbA1c variability (high SD) during the observation period was an independent predictor of mortality in patients aged more than 55 years (p < 0.01). The HbA1c trend was another independent predictor of mortality. Patients with a decreasing versus stable HbA1c trend had a greater mortality risk; this association persisted in all age groups in patients with HbA1c > 7% at the end of the observation period (p = 0.02 in age 35-54; p < 0.01 in aged >55). Patients with an increasing versus stable HbA1c trend had a greater mortality risk only in the elderly group (>70), yet in both HbA1c categories (p < 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

HbA1c variability and trend are important determinants of mortality risk and should be considered when adjusting glycaemic targets.

Trends in glycaemic control and drug use in males and females with type 2 diabetes: Results of the Australian National Diabetes Audit from 2013 to 2019

AIM

To investigate temporal changes in glycaemic control and the use of antihyperglycaemic therapies in females and males with type 2 diabetes from 2013 to 2019.

METHODS

Data from adult patients with type 2 diabetes (n = 11 930; 44.9% females, mean [SD] age of 62.9 [12.9] years) were analysed from the 2013 to 2019 biennial cross-sectional Australian National Diabetes Audit.

RESULTS

Mean HbA1c remained similar throughout the years examined and between the sexes (7.8%-8.3%, 62-67 mmol/mol; P > .05). The number of antihyperglycaemic agents used by both sexes increased from 2013 to 2019 (P < .001), with more agents used by males (P = .014). From 2013 to 2019, there were increasing proportions of both sexes using dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (females: 11.7%-25.7%, P = .045; males: 11.6%-29.5%, P = .036) and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (females: 5.9%-15.3%; males: 4.9%-11.1%; P = .043 for both). Sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitors were not available in 2013; however, their use increased substantially from 2015 to 2019 in both females (4.9%-26.3%, P = .013) and males (4.7%-32.2%, P = .019).

CONCLUSIONS

From 2013 to 2019, mean HbA1c levels remained unchanged despite a concurrent increase in the number of antihyperglycaemic medications used. Overall, there was a trend towards preferencing newer agents with some differences in treatment regimens relating to sex and renal function.

Lifetime Cost-effectiveness of Oral Semaglutide Versus Dulaglutide and Liraglutide in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Inadequately Controlled With Oral Antidiabetics

PURPOSE

To estimate the incremental cost-utility ratio of oral semaglutide (14 mg once daily) vs other glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonist treatments among adults with type 2 diabetes that was inadequately controlled with 1 to 2 oral antidiabetic drugs from a US payer perspective.

METHODS

A state-transition model with a competing risk approach was developed for diabetic complications and risk of cardiovascular events based on the UK Prospective Diabetes Study Outcomes Model 1 equations. Baseline population characteristics reflect the PIONEER 4 trial (Efficacy and Safety of Oral Semaglutide Versus Liraglutide and Versus Placebo in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus) of oral semaglutide. Model comparators included subcutaneous semaglutide, dulaglutide, and liraglutide. Treatment effects (change in glycosylated hemoglobin, weight, and systolic blood pressure) were estimated by network meta-analysis. Drug, management, and event costs (in 2019 US dollars), survival after nonfatal events, and utilities were obtained from the literature. Costs and quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) outcomes were discounted at 3% annually over a lifetime horizon. Probabilistic and 1-way sensitivity analyses were performed.

FINDINGS

Total estimated costs and QALYs were $144,065 and 12.98 for oral semaglutide, $145,721 and 12.96 for dulaglutide, $145,833 and 12.99 for SC semaglutide, and $149,428 and 12.97 for liraglutide, respectively. Oral semaglutide was less costly and more effective than dulaglutide and liraglutide but less costly than subcutaneous semaglutide with similar effectiveness. Oral semaglutide was favored versus subcutaneous semaglutide in 52.10% of model replications at a willingness-to-pay of $150,000 per QALY.

IMPLICATIONS

Oral semaglutide is predicted to offer health benefits similar to subcutaneous semaglutide and ahead of dulaglutide and liraglutide. Oral semaglutide is a cost-effective glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonist treatment option.

Metformin Use and Cognitive Function in Older Adults With Type 2 Diabetes Following a Mediterranean Diet Intervention

Background and Purpose: Both adherence to the Mediterranean diet (MedDiet) and the use of metformin could benefit the cognitive performance of individuals with type 2 diabetes, but evidence is still controversial. We examined the association between metformin use and cognition in older adults with type 2 diabetes following a MedDiet intervention. Methods: Prospective cohort study framed in the PREDIMED-Plus-Cognition sub-study. The PREDIMED-Plus clinical trial aims to compare the cardiovascular effect of two MedDiet interventions, with and without energy restriction, in individuals with overweight/obesity and metabolic syndrome. The present sub-study included 487 cognitively normal subjects (50.5% women, mean ± SD age of 65.2 ± 4.7 years), 30.4% of them (N = 148) with type 2 diabetes. A comprehensive battery of neurocognitive tests was administered at baseline and after 1 and 3 years. Individuals with type 2 diabetes that exhibited a good glycemic control trajectory, either using or not using metformin, were compared to one another and to individuals without diabetes using mixed-effects models with inverse probability of treatment weights. Results: Most subjects with type 2 diabetes (83.1%) presented a good and stable glycemic control trajectory. Before engaging in the MedDiet intervention, subjects using metformin scored higher in executive functions (Cohen's d = 0.51), memory (Cohen's d = 0.38) and global cognition (Cohen's d = 0.48) than those not using metformin. However, these differences were not sustained during the 3 years of follow-up, as individuals not using metformin experienced greater improvements in memory (β = 0.38 vs. β = 0.10, P = 0.036), executive functions (β = 0.36 vs. β = 0.02, P = 0.005) and global cognition (β = 0.29 vs. β = -0.02, P = 0.001) that combined with a higher MedDiet adherence (12.6 vs. 11.5 points, P = 0.031). Finally, subjects without diabetes presented greater improvements in memory than subjects with diabetes irrespective of their exposure to metformin (β = 0.55 vs. β = 0.10, P < 0.001). However, subjects with diabetes not using metformin, compared to subjects without diabetes, presented greater improvements in executive functions (β = 0.33 vs. β = 0.08, P = 0.032) and displayed a higher MedDiet adherence (12.6 points vs. 11.6 points, P = 0.046). Conclusions: Although both metformin and MedDiet interventions are good candidates for future cognitive decline preventive studies, a higher adherence to the MedDiet could even outweigh the potential neuroprotective effects of metformin in subjects with diabetes.

Hemoglobin A1c Patterns of Youth With Type 1 Diabetes 10 Years Post Diagnosis From 3 Continents

OBJECTIVES

Distinct hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) trajectories during puberty are identified in youth with established type 1 diabetes (T1D). We used data from 3 international registries to evaluate whether distinct HbA1c trajectories occur from T1D onset.

METHODS

Participants were <18 years old at diagnosis with at least 1 HbA1c measured within 12 months post diagnosis, along with ≥3 duration-year-aggregated HbA1c values over 10 years of follow-up. Participants from the Australasian Diabetes Data Network (n = 7292), the German-Austrian-Luxembourgian-Swiss diabetes prospective follow-up initiative (Diabetes Patienten Verlaufsdokumentation) (n = 39 226) and the US-based Type 1 Diabetes Exchange Clinic Registry (n = 3704) were included. With group-based trajectory modeling, we identified unique HbA1c patterns from the onset of T1D.

RESULTS

Five distinct trajectories occurred in all 3 registries, with similar patterns of proportions by group. More than 50% had stable HbA1c categorized as being either low stable or intermediate stable. Conversely, ∼15% in each registry were characterized by stable HbA1c >8.0% (high stable), and ∼11% had values that began at or near the target but then increased (target increase). Only ∼5% of youth were above the target from diagnosis, with an increasing HbA1c trajectory over time (high increase). This group differed from others, with higher rates of minority status and an older age at diagnosis across all 3 registries (P ≤ .001).

CONCLUSIONS

Similar postdiagnostic HbA1c patterns were observed across 3 international registries. Identifying the youth at the greatest risk for deterioration in HbA1c over time may allow clinicians to intervene early, and more aggressively, to avert increasing HbA1c.

Peripheral Neuropathy: Comparison of Symptoms and Severity Between Colorectal Cancer Survivors and Patients With Diabetes

BACKGROUND

Peripheral neuropathy (PN) is a common symptom in colorectal cancer (CRC) survivors and patients with diabetes. However, the differences in PN symptoms between CRC survivors and patients with diabetes are not clear.

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of this study was to examine the differences in PN between CRC survivors and patients with diabetes.

METHODS

Secondary data were analyzed from two cross-sectional studies consisting of 81 CRC survivors and 86 patients with diabetes from two hospitals in northern and central Taiwan. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, analysis of covariance, and multiple logistic regression.

FINDINGS

Significant differences in severity and prevalence of PN and neuropathic pain between CRC survivors and patients with diabetes were found. Patients with diabetes had significantly more severe PN and sensory PN compared to CRC survivors. In addition, the prevalence of PN and neuropathic pain was significantly higher in CRC survivors compared to patients with diabetes after control of covariates.

HbA1c trajectory and cardiovascular outcomes: an analysis of data from the Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes (ACCORD) study

Background:

We investigated the associations between glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) trajectories and cardiovascular outcomes using data from the Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes (ACCORD) study.

Methods:

We used HbA1c values within the first 2 years of treatment for modeling with a latent class growth model. Groups of HbA1c trajectories were modeled separately in the standard (group 1–group 4) and intensive (group 5–group 8) treatment arms. The primary outcome in the ACCORD study was a composite of non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, or death from cardiovascular causes. Effects of HbA1c trajectories on cardiovascular outcomes were analyzed using a Cox-proportional hazard model.

Results:

Baseline HbA1c levels for the eight trajectories (group 1–group 8) were 7.8 ± 0.8, 8.2 ± 0.9, 9.3 ± 1.1, 9.6 ± 1.2, 7.8 ± 0.7, 10.1 ± 0.8, 8.3 ± 0.7, and 9.5 ± 1.1%, respectively. The respective values after 2 years of treatment were 7.0 ± 0.6, 7.7 ± 0.7, 8.5 ± 0.9, 10.3 ± 1.3, 6.2 ± 0.4, 6.5 ± 0.6, 7.2 ± 0.6, and 8.5 ± 1.1%. After a median follow-up of 4.8 years, group 5 and group 6 had similar outcomes compared with group 1 (reference group). In contrast, group 3, group 4, and group 8 had higher risks of the primary composite outcome compared with group 1.

Conclusion:

HbA1c trajectory was associated with cardiovascular outcomes in type 2 diabetes patients with high cardiovascular risk.

Trends in known and undiagnosed diabetes, HbA1c levels, cardiometabolic risk factors and diabetes treatment target achievement in repeated cross-sectional surveys: the population-based Tromsø Study 1994-2016

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to investigate time trends in known and undiagnosed diabetes, glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) levels and other cardiometabolic risk factors in the general population as well as treatment target achievement among those with diabetes.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Repeated cross-sectional surveys in the population-based Tromsø Study.

METHODS

We used age-adjusted generalised estimating equation models to study trends in self-reported and undiagnosed (HbA1c ≥6.5%) diabetes, cardiometabolic risk factors and the metabolic syndrome in 27 281 women and men aged 40-84 years examined in up to four surveys of the Tromsø Study between 1994 and 2016. Further, we analysed trends in diabetes treatment target achievement.

RESULTS

During 1994-2016, diabetes prevalence increased in women (2.3% to 4.6%) and men (2.4% to 5.8%) and in all age groups, while the proportion of undiagnosed diabetes in women (32% to 17%) and men (37% to 24%) decreased. Blood pressure and total cholesterol decreased, while waist circumference increased in participants with and without diabetes, leading to a relatively stable prevalence of the metabolic syndrome throughout the study period. There was a marginal increase in HbA1c levels among participants without diabetes. Only half of those with diabetes achieved the treatment target of HbA1c ≤7.0%.

CONCLUSION

In the last two decades, diabetes prevalence increased, while the proportion of undiagnosed diabetes declined. The prevalence of the metabolic syndrome remained stable throughout, driven by opposing trends with an increase in obesity and a decrease in other cardiometabolic risk factors. HbA1c treatment target achievement did not improve.

Predictors of HbA1c Trajectories in Predominantly Black Adolescents With Type 1 Diabetes

OBJECTIVE

Following the Journal of Pediatric Psychology's special edition on health disparities, calling for Phase 2 research exploring mechanisms of racial groups in health disparities, this study aims to explore social information processing predictors of longitudinal hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) trajectories in a racially diverse group of adolescents. The social information processing model of glycemic control in type 1 diabetes (T1D) posits that adolescents who make negative attributions about reactions of friends are likely to find adherence difficult in social situations, have increased stress, and have suboptimal glycemic control.

METHODS

One hundred eighty-four youth with T1D completed self-report measures and HbA1c at three time points within 1 year was extracted from medical records. Growth mixture modeling empirically derived classes of HbA1c trajectories and explored predictive relationships of social information processing variables, demographics, and diabetes characteristics.

RESULTS

Three classes emerged: High Decelerating, Mid-High Accelerating, and Near-Optimal Accelerating. Black/African American participants were highly likely to be in the High and Mid-High groups. Higher anticipated adherence difficulties in social situations predicted increased odds of being in the Mid-High versus Near-Optimal HbA1c group. Increased diabetes stress predicted increased odds of being in the High versus Near-Optimal and Mid-High groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Continuing research on mechanisms behind this health disparity is necessary with more representation from varied racial and ethnic groups. Equal access to diabetes technology and psychosocial treatments are recommended and implications for clinical intervention development are discussed.

Diabetes distress and peripheral neuropathy are associated with medication non-adherence in individuals with type 2 diabetes in primary care

BACKGROUND

Psychosocial factors like diabetes distress and social support, as well as the presence of complications, affect an individual's self-management ability; however, their role in adherence behaviours is not yet clear. We examined the role of psychosocial factors and complications in non-adherence behaviours in individuals with diabetes in primary care.

METHODS

Baseline survey with nine-month follow up through medical records of patients with type 2 diabetes attending primary care. Medication adherence and diabetes distress were assessed using Morisky Green Levine Medication Adherence Scale and Problem Areas in Diabetes, respectively. Appointment adherence was assessed through medical records.

RESULTS

Of the 448 participants studied, 59.8% had medication non-adherence and 21.7% were non-adherent to scheduled appointments. PAID score (odds ratio (OR) 1.01, 95% confidence interval 1.00-1.03, p = 0.013), peripheral neuropathy (OR 1.99, 95%CI 1.18-3.37, p = 0.01), home glucose monitoring (OR 0.46, 95%CI 0.30-0.69, p < 0.001), HbA1c (OR 1.34, 95%CI 1.13-1.61, p = 0.001), and age (OR 0.96, 95%CI 0.93-0.98, p = 0.001) were associated with medication non-adherence. Indian ethnicity (OR 2.93, 95%CI 1.59-5.39, p = 0.001), secondary or higher education (OR 1.94, 95%CI 1.14-3.27, p = 0.014), and HbA1c (OR 1.38, 95%CI 1.18-1.63, p < 0.001) were associated with appointment non-adherence.

CONCLUSIONS

Non-adherence behaviours were prevalent and significantly associated with higher HbA1c. Medication non-adherence was more likely in younger individuals, those with higher diabetes distress or peripheral neuropathy. Appointment non-adherence was more likely in individuals of Indian ethnicity or those with higher education. Greater support for these groups may help improve adherence behaviours and outcomes.

Clinical Inertia and 2-Year Glycaemic Trajectories in Patients with Non-Newly Diagnosed Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in Primary Care: A Retrospective Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE

To analyse diabetes treatment, treatment change and self-management behaviours in association with 2-year glycaemic trajectories in patients with non-newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes mellitus in Chinese primary care.

METHODS

This was an observational, multi-centre, longitudinal, retrospective cohort study. Clinical data of 4690 subjects were extracted from electronic medical records, including serial glycated haemoglobin A_1c (HbA_1c) measurements, antidiabetic medication records and compliance to exercise, diet, medications and self-monitoring of blood glucose (SMBG). Patterns of longitudinal HbA1c trajectories were identified using the percentage of HbA_1c measurements <7.5% from the second available HbA_1c measurement. Clinical relevance of the clusters was assessed through multivariable analysis.

RESULTS

Approximately half of the participants demonstrated good glycaemic control; of these, 34.5% demonstrated stable, good control, and 13.7% demonstrated relatively good control. About 16.2% demonstrated moderate control, and 35.6% demonstrated poor control. From the good to poor control groups, the percentage of subjects treated with insulin at baseline and during the follow-up period increased gradually, while the percentage of subjects adhering to exercise, diet, medications and SMBG decreased gradually. Compared with baseline, the adherence to exercise, diet, medications and SMBG improved significantly. Approximately 50% and 26% of subjects in the two poorest control groups, respectively, experienced treatment changes. After multivariable adjustments, baseline HbA_1c ≥7.5%, HbA_1c change ≥-0.5% from baseline to visit 1, insulin treatment, treatment change, poor adherence to diet, exercise, SMBG during the follow-up period and HbA_1c measurements <3 per year were significantly associated with poorer glycaemic control.

CONCLUSION

We identified four longitudinal HbA_1c trajectories in patients with non-newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes. Even if baseline HbA_1c is suboptimal, aggressive treatment changes, good adherence during the follow-up period, ≥3 HbA_1c measurements per year and reducing HbA_1c levels to a certain extent by the first follow-up visit were important for good, stable, long-term glycaemic control.

Time in suboptimal glycemic control over 10 years for patients newly diagnosed with type 2 diabetes

OBJECTIVE

To estimate time in suboptimal glycemic control among patients with incident type 2 diabetes (T2D) over 10 years.

METHODS

We calculated percent of time in suboptimal glycemic control using three A1C thresholds (8%, 7.5%, 7%) following T2D diagnosis. Stratified analyses were conducted based on age and A1C levels at T2D diagnosis.

RESULTS

We identified 28,315 patients with incident T2D. Percent of time in suboptimal glycemic control increased with T2D duration. Mean percent time in suboptimal A1C control in the first 2 years following diagnosis was 30%, 34% and 40% for the 8%, 7.5%, and 7% thresholds, respectively. In the 6-10 years following T2D diagnosis, the percent time in suboptimal A1C control increased to 39%, 48% and 61%, for the 8%, 7.5%, and 7% thresholds, respectively. Time in suboptimal glycemic control was longer among younger patients aged 20-44 versus ≥65 years and those with higher A1C (>8%) versus lower A1C (<7%) at diagnosis.

CONCLUSIONS

Over 10 years following diagnosis, T2D patients spent one-third to over one-half of their time in suboptimal glycemic control. Reducing time spent above desired A1C targets could lower risk of microvascular and macrovascular complications.

Trajectories of glycaemia following acute pancreatitis: a prospective longitudinal cohort study with 24 months follow-up

BACKGROUND

New-onset diabetes is the most common sequela of acute pancreatitis (AP). Yet, prospective changes in glycaemia over time have never been investigated comprehensively in this study population. The primary aim was to determine the cumulative incidence of new-onset prediabetes and new-onset diabetes after AP over 24 months of follow-up in a prospective cohort study. The secondary aim was to identify trajectories of glycaemia during follow-up and their predictors at the time of hospitalisation.

METHODS

Patients with a prospective diagnosis of AP and no diabetes based on the American Diabetes Association criteria were followed up every 6 months up to 24 months after hospital discharge. Incidence of new-onset prediabetes/diabetes over each follow-up period was calculated. Group-based trajectory modelling was used to identify common changes in glycaemia. Multinomial regression analyses were conducted to investigate the associations between a wide array of routinely available demographic, anthropometric, laboratory, imaging, and clinical factors and membership in the trajectory groups.

RESULTS

A total of 152 patients without diabetes were followed up. The cumulative incidence of new-onset prediabetes and diabetes was 20% at 6 months after hospitalisation and 43% over 24 months of follow-up (p trend < 0.001). Three discrete trajectories of glycaemia were identified: normal-stable glycaemia (32%), moderate-stable glycaemia (60%), and high-increasing glycaemia (8%). Waist circumference was a significant predictor of moderate-stable glycaemia. None of the studied predictors were significantly associated with high-increasing glycaemia.

CONCLUSIONS

This first prospective cohort study of changes in glycaemia (determined at structured time points in unselected AP patients) showed that at least one out of five patients develops new-onset prediabetes or diabetes at 6 months of follow-up and more than four out of ten-in the first 2 years. Changes in glycaemia after AP follow three discrete trajectories. This may inform prevention or early detection of critical changes in blood glucose metabolism following an attack of AP and, hence, reduce the burden of new-onset diabetes after acute pancreatitis.

Comparative evaluation of quality of diabetes care within a population using discrete HbA1c thresholds versus longitudinal trends within a defined time period

BACKGROUND

HbA1c is a quality measurement for a population's diabetes care. Currently, discrete values are used to judge the care quality. However, an improved trend may have been achieved without reaching a discrete threshold. We aimed to compare the quality of glycaemic care using discrete thresholds versus longitudinal trends of a patient's HbA1c.

METHODS

We derived a study population of 4062 with two consecutive HbA1c's within 1-6 months. We used current discrete thresholds and then used these to define the longitudinal thresholds (the change in HbA1c between the first and second measurement).

RESULTS

We found that even with discrete thresholds, overall care was improving with 61% (Excellent care), 13% (Good care), 13% (Average care) and 13% (Poor care) turning into 68%, 12%, 11% and 9%, respectively (χ² 3335, p<0.0001). Using longitudinal trends shows a greater improvement of care with the original values achieving 74%, 7%, 9%, 7% and 4%, respectively (χ² 4111.3, p<0.0001). There was an additional 28% (Good care), 15% (Average care) and 12% (Poor and Very poor care) who with longitudinal trends improved to an excellent category without being identified as such.

CONCLUSION

Our study highlights the need to consider longitudinal trends when measuring quality of diabetes care.

Three-Variate Longitudinal Patterns of Metabolic Control, Body Mass Index, and Insulin Dose during Puberty in a Type 1 Diabetes Cohort: A Group-Based Multitrajectory Analysis

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the interrelationship of metabolic control, age- and sex-adjusted body mass index, and daily insulin dose and to identify heterogeneous multivariate developmental curves from childhood to young adulthood in a large cohort of children with type 1 diabetes (T1D) STUDY DESIGN: Data were extracted from the diabetes follow-up registry DPV. Longitudinal data from 9239 participants with T1D age 8-18 years with diabetes duration ≥2 years and ≥5 years of follow-up were analyzed. We applied group-based multitrajectory modeling to identify latent groups of subjects following similar developmental curves across outcomes (hemoglobin A1c [HbA1c], age/sex-standardized body mass index [BMI-SDS], daily insulin dose per kg). Group number was based on Bayes information criterion and group size (≥5%).

RESULTS

The group-based multitrajectory approach revealed 5 heterogeneous 3-variate trajectories during puberty. Individuals with stable good metabolic control, high-normal increasing BMI-SDS, and rising insulin dose patterns were classified as group 1 (33%). Group 2 (20%) comprised youths with intermediate-increasing HbA1c, low BMI-SDS, and steeply increasing insulin dose trajectories. Group 3 (11%) followed intermediate-rising HbA1c and high-normal increasing BMI-SDS developmental curves, while insulin dose increased steeply. In group 4 (14%), both high-increasing HbA1c and insulin dose trajectories were observed, while BMI-SDS was stable-normal. Group 5 (22%) included subjects with intermediate-rising HbA1c patterns, high-increasing BMI-SDS, and increasing insulin dose patterns.

CONCLUSIONS

This study identified 5 distinct 3-variate curves of HbA1c, BMI-SDS, and insulin dose during puberty among youths with T1D. This approach demonstrates a considerable heterogeneity highlighting the importance of personalized medical care.

Long-term follow up of older people on diabetes medications: observational study using linked health databases

There is uncertainty about the long-term benefits and risks of diabetes medications in older people. We investigated differences in hypoglycaemia, cardiovascular disease (CVD) or mortality in older people according to diabetes medication, using linked national hospitalisation and mortality data from New Zealand. Adults aged ≥65 years dispensed diabetes medication in 2010 with a baseline glycated haemoglobulin (HbA1c) level (n=18099, mean age 73 years, 50% female) were included and stratified into four groups: metformin-only (42%); metformin-plus-other-oral-hypoglycaemic/s (27%); other-oral/s-only (11%); and any-insulin (20%). Time to first event was analysed with Cox models adjusted for sociodemographic factors; clinical history (prior hospitalisation for diabetes or CVD, and comorbidities); glycated haemoglobin; and CVD medications. Over 7-year follow up, 16% of participants experienced hypoglycaemia, 36% a CVD event and 31% died. Compared with metformin-only, insulin and other oral hypoglycaemic/s were associated with five- to 10-fold long-term increased risk of hypoglycaemia, and increased risk of CVD and death although adjusted survival curves showed no important separation between medication groups for CVD and death with the possible exception of insulin. Although confounding by indication is unable to be eliminated, this study raises further questions about the use of second-line diabetes medications in older people.

Five heterogeneous HbA1c trajectories from childhood to adulthood in youth with type 1 diabetes from three different continents: A group-based modeling approach

OBJECTIVES

Only a fraction of youth meet established targets for glycemic control; many experience deteriorating control over time. We compared trajectories of hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) among youth from three trans-continental type 1 diabetes (T1D) registries and identified clinical variables associated with the odds of following increasing vs stable trajectories.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Analyses included longitudinal data from 15 897 individuals age 8 to 18 with T1D for at least 2 years and HbA1c measurements in at least 5 years during the observation period. Cohorts were selected from Australasian Diabetes Data Network (ADDN; Australia), German/Austrian/Luxembourgian Diabetes-Patienten-Verlaufsdokumentation initiative (DPV; Germany/Austria/Luxembourga), and the T1D Exchange Clinic Network (T1DX; US) clinic registries. Group-based trajectory modeling and multivariable logistic regression identified unique HbA1c trajectories and their predictors.

RESULTS

Five heterogeneous trajectories of glycemic control in each registry were identified: low, intermediate, high stable; intermediate and high increasing. The overall HbA1c level for each trajectory group tended to be lowest in the DPV, higher in the ADDN, and highest in the T1DX. The absolute level of HbA1c and the proportion of individuals within each trajectory varied across registries: 17% to 22% of individuals followed an increasing trajectory. Compared with maintaining a stable trajectory, following an increasing trajectory was significantly associated with ethnic minority status, lower height z-score, higher BMI z-score, insulin injection therapy, and the occurrence of severe hypoglycemia; however, these factors were not consistent across the three registries.

CONCLUSIONS

We report the first multinational registry-based comparison of glycemic control trajectories among youth with T1D from three continents and identify possible targets for intervention in those at risk of an increasing HbA1c trajectory.

Distinct trajectories of HbA1c in newly diagnosed Type 2 diabetes from the DPV registry using a longitudinal group-based modelling approach

AIM

To identify groups of heterogeneous HbA_1c trajectories over time in newly diagnosed Type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

The study comprised 6355 adults with newly diagnosed Type 2 diabetes (55% men, median age 62 years, baseline BMI 31 kg/m² ) from the Diabetes Patienten Verlaufsdokumentation (DPV) prospective multicentre diabetes registry (Germany, Austria). Individuals were assessed during the first 5 years after diabetes diagnosis if they had ≥ 3 aggregated HbA_1c measurements during follow-up. Latent class growth modelling was used to determine distinct subgroups that followed similar longitudinal HbA_1c patterns (SAS: Proc Traj). Multinomial logistic regression models were used to investigate which variables were associated with the respective HbA_1c trajectory groups.

RESULTS

Four distinct longitudinal HbA_1c trajectory (glycaemic control) groups were found. The largest group (56% of participants) maintained stable good glycaemic control (HbA_1c 42-45 mmol/mol). Twenty-six percent maintained stable moderate glycaemic control (HbA_1c 57-62 mmol/mol). A third group (12%) initially showed severe hyperglycaemia (HbA_1c 97 mmol/mol) but reached good glycaemic control within 1 year. The smallest group (6%) showed stable poor glycaemic control (HbA_1c 79-88 mmol/mol). Younger age at diabetes diagnosis, male sex, and higher BMI were associated with the stable moderate or poor glycaemic control groups. Insulin therapy was strongly associated with the highly improved glycaemic control group.

CONCLUSIONS

Four subgroups with distinct HbA_1c trajectories were determined in newly diagnosed Type 2 diabetes using a group-based modelling approach. Approximately one-third of people with newly diagnosed Type 2 diabetes need either better medication adherence or earlier intensification of glucose-lowering therapy.

Association of diabetes treatment with long-term glycemic patterns in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: A prospective cohort study

AIM

This study aimed to analyze diabetes treatment and treatment changes in association with long-term glycemic patterns in an Asian population with diabetes.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This was a prospective cohort study of 6218 patients with type 2 diabetes managed in public primary care clinics in Singapore. Clinical data from 2011 to 2016 were extracted from electronic medical records, including serial HbA1c measurements and dispensed antidiabetic medication records. Patterns of longitudinal HbA1c trajectories were identified using latent class growth analysis, and patients' annual treatment plans were compared between subgroups with different HbA1c patterns.

RESULTS

We identified four distinct HbA1c patterns. Eighty-one percent of patients were classified in the low-stable group, where monotherapy and dual therapy with oral agents were the most common treatments. We also identified three groups with poorer control, with moderate-stable (14%), moderate-increase (3%), and high-decrease (2%) HbA1c patterns. Insulin treatment was most prevalent in these groups, with 61% to 72% of subjects receiving insulin treatment in 2016. More than 60% of subjects in poorer control groups had experienced treatment intensification during follow-up. Addition of multiple insulin injections was the most common intensification in moderate-increase and high-decrease groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Treatment reflected and was appropriate to the extent of dysglycemia in this population. A small group of patients had deteriorating glycemic control, in spite of being treated with multiple insulin injections, suggesting non-response or non-adherence to treatment. Further investigation is needed to identify reasons for the deteriorating control observed and design effective interventions for these patients.

Improvement in Quality of Care for Patients with Type 2 Diabetes in Hungary Between 2008 and 2016: Results from Two Population-Based Representative Surveys

INTRODUCTION

Due to the increasing trends of recent decades, diabetes prevalence has reached a frequency of 1/11 adults worldwide. However, this disadvantageous trend has not been accompanied by worsened outcome indicators; better short-term (e.g., HbA1c levels) and long-term [e.g., all-cause mortality among type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients] outcomes can be observed globally. We aimed to describe changes in the effectiveness of type 2 diabetes mellitus care between 2008 and 2016 based on outcome indicators.

METHODS

The study is a secondary analysis of data from two previously performed surveys. Both surveys were conducted in the framework of the General Practitioners' Morbidity Sentinel Stations Program (GPMSSP), which maintains a nationally representative registry of T2DM patients.

RESULTS

The largest improvement was observed in achieving fasting blood glucose and HbA1c target values [OR = 0.67, 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.56-0.80 and OR = 0.58; 95% CI, 0.48-0.70, respectively]. Moderate improvement was detected by reaching body mass index (BMI), diastolic blood pressure and total cholesterol target values (OR = 0.78, 95% CI, 0.65-0.93; OR = 0.78, 95% CI, 0.65-0.94 and OR = 0.76, 95% CI, 0.63-0.92, respectively).

CONCLUSION

Our study demonstrated that if standardized indicators are investigated in population-based samples, the effectiveness of T2DM care can be monitored by ad hoc surveys. The systematic application of this approach completed with the detailed documentation of the applied therapies could demonstrate the public health impact of certain modifications in T2DM care. An overall improvement in metabolic control (glycaemic control, lipid status and obesity) was observed, which was not accompanied by improved therapeutic target achievement for systolic blood pressure.

Longitudinal trends in HbA1c patterns and association with outcomes: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to review studies that identified patterns of longitudinal HbA1c trends in patients with diabetes and to summarize factors and outcomes associated with distinct trajectory patterns.

METHODS

PubMed and Web of Science were systematically searched for studies examining HbA1c trends among patients with diabetes from database inception through September 2017. Articles were included if they met the following inclusion criteria: (a) longitudinal study of subjects with diabetes only, (b) use of serial measurements of HbA1c , and (c) analysis of the trend of HbA1c using group-based trajectory approaches.

RESULTS

Twenty studies were included, 11 on type 1 diabetes and 9 on type 2 diabetes. These studies identified 2 to 6 HbA1c trajectory patterns. The most commonly identified patterns included stable HbA1c around 7.0% and at levels between 8.0% and 9.9%, which usually captured the HbA1c pattern among the majority of subjects in the study population. Unstable patterns identified included increasing HbA1c trend, decreasing HbA1c trend, and non-linear patterns. These patterns were associated with differential risk of disease outcomes, over and beyond single-point HbA1c measures. Age, gender, ethnicity, diabetes duration, disease management frequency, cardiovascular risk factors, insulin treatment, family environment, and psychosocial factors were the most frequently reported factors associated with membership of specific HbA1c pattern groups.

CONCLUSION

Common patterns of longitudinal HbA1c trends were identified despite heterogeneity among the studies. A better understanding of what underlies these different patterns may provide opportunities to tailor therapies and care for these patients to reduce adverse outcomes.