Long-term metapopulation study of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia): survey methods, data management, and long-term population trends

Demography and environment modulate the effects of genetic diversity on extinction risk in a butterfly metapopulation

Linking genetic diversity to extinction is a common goal in genomic studies. Recently, a debate has arisen regarding the importance of genetic variation in conservation as some studies have failed to find associations between genome-wide genetic diversity and extinction risk. However, only rarely are genetic diversity and fitness measured together in the wild, and typically demographic history and environment are ignored. It is therefore difficult to infer whether a lack of an association is real or obscured by confounding factors. To address these shortcomings, we analyzed genetic data from 7,501 individuals with extinction data from 279 meadows and mortality of 1,742 larval nests in a butterfly metapopulation. We found a strong negative association between genetic diversity and extinction when considering only heterozygosity in models. However, this association disappeared when accounting for ecological covariates, suggesting a confounding between demography and genetics and a more complex role for heterozygosity in extinction risk. Modeling interactions between heterozygosity and demographic variables revealed that associations between extinction and heterozygosity were context-dependent. For example, extinction declined with increasing heterozygosity in large, but not currently small populations, although negative associations between heterozygosity, extinction, and mortality were detected in small populations with a recent history of decline. We conclude that low genetic diversity is an important predictor of extinction, predicting >25% increase in extinction beyond ecological factors in certain contexts. These results highlight that inferences about the importance of genetic diversity for population viability should not rely on genomic data alone but require investments in obtaining demographic and environmental data from natural populations.

Spatio-temporal metapopulation trends: The coconut crabs of Zanzibar

Species experience a variety of environmental and anthropogenic conditions across their ranges leading to spatial variation in population dynamics. Understanding population dynamics under different conditions is important but it is challenging to allocate limited effort to spatial and temporal subpopulation monitoring. Using GLMMs, we analyze survey data of a metapopulation of coconut crabs spanning 7 years and 15 sites in and near the Pemba archipelago, Zanzibar, to estimate trends in population size (based on catch per unit effort), weight and sex ratio at the meta- and subpopulation level and investigate anthropogenic drivers of these trends. We found that the overall metapopulation has remained stable in terms of size and composition over the survey period, but observed diverging trends in population size and sex ratio at some subpopulations. Formal protection of sites was associated with positive population trends. Of nine sites for which we could estimate site-specific trends, three showed increasing and two decreasing trends, whereas four sites had stable subpopulations. Although anthropogenic factors affected the average weight, and the incidence of small and large individuals, we found no temporal trends in any weight-related measures. Furthermore, there were no apparent patterns between weight-related measures and subpopulation trends. The metapopulation was biased toward males, and exploitation appeared to be associated with declining trends in the proportion of females, likely an artifact of a strong decline in the proportion of females in one of only two exploited sites in the dataset. Educational campaigns implemented in 2020 at six sites were not related to higher population sizes in later surveys. The variable trends in subpopulation sizes and composition highlight the need for spatially replicated monitoring in metapopulations. The analyses further provide a detailed baseline for future subpopulation studies of this vulnerable species in one of its last remaining metapopulations in the Western Indian Ocean.

Hostility prevents the tragedy of the commons in metapopulation with asymmetric migration: A lesson from queenless ants

A colony of the queenless ant species, Pristomyrmex punctatus, can broadly be seen as consisting of small-body sized worker ants and relatively larger body-sized cheater ants. Hence, in the presence of intercolony migration, a set of constituent colonies act as a metapopulation exclusively composed of cooperators and defectors. Such a setup facilitates an evolutionary game-theoretic replication-selection model of population dynamics of the ants in a metapopulation. Using the model, we analytically probe the effects of territoriality induced hostility. Such hostility in the ant metapopulation proves to be crucial in preventing the tragedy of the commons, specifically, the workforce, a social good formed by cooperation. This mechanism applies to any metapopulation-not necessarily the ants-composed of cooperators and defectors where interpopulation migration occurs asymmetrically, i.e., cooperators and defectors migrate at different rates. Furthermore, our model validates that there is evolutionary benefit behind the queenless ants' behavior of showing more hostility towards the immigrants from nearby colonies than those from the far-off ones. In order to calibrate our model's parameters, we have extensively used the data available on the queenless ant species, P. punctatus.

The first arriving virus shapes within-host viral diversity during natural epidemics

Viral diversity has been discovered across scales from host individuals to populations. However, the drivers of viral community assembly are still largely unknown. Within-host viral communities are formed through co-infections, where the interval between the arrival times of viruses may vary. Priority effects describe the timing and order in which species arrive in an environment, and how early colonizers impact subsequent community assembly. To study the effect of the first-arriving virus on subsequent infection patterns of five focal viruses, we set up a field experiment using naïve Plantago lanceolata plants as sentinels during a seasonal virus epidemic. Using joint species distribution modelling, we find both positive and negative effects of early season viral infection on late season viral colonization patterns. The direction of the effect depends on both the host genotype and which virus colonized the host early in the season. It is well established that co-occurring viruses may change the virulence and transmission of viral infections. However, our results show that priority effects may also play an important, previously unquantified role in viral community assembly. The assessment of these temporal dynamics within a community ecological framework will improve our ability to understand and predict viral diversity in natural systems.

Direct and indirect viral associations predict coexistence in wild plant virus communities

Viruses are a vastly underestimated component of biodiversity that occur as diverse communities across hierarchical scales from the landscape level to individual hosts. The integration of community ecology with disease biology is a powerful, novel approach that can yield unprecedented insights into the abiotic and biotic drivers of pathogen community assembly. Here, we sampled wild plant populations to characterize and analyze the diversity and co-occurrence structure of within-host virus communities and their predictors. Our results show that these virus communities are characterized by diverse, non-random coinfections. Using a novel graphical network modeling framework, we demonstrate how environmental heterogeneity influences the network of virus taxa and how the virus co-occurrence patterns can be attributed to non-random, direct statistical virus-virus associations. Moreover, we show that environmental heterogeneity changed virus association networks, especially through their indirect effects. Our results highlight a previously underestimated mechanism of how environmental variability can influence disease risks by changing associations between viruses that are conditional on their environment.

Alternative developmental and transcriptomic responses to host plant water limitation in a butterfly metapopulation

Predicting how climate change affects biotic interactions poses a challenge. Plant-insect herbivore interactions are particularly sensitive to climate change, as climate-induced changes in plant quality cascade into the performance of insect herbivores. Whereas the immediate survival of herbivore individuals depends on plastic responses to climate change-induced nutritional stress, long-term population persistence via evolutionary adaptation requires genetic variation for these responses. To assess the prospects for population persistence under climate change, it is therefore crucial to characterize response mechanisms to climate change-induced stressors, and quantify their variability in natural populations. Here, we test developmental and transcriptomic responses to water limitation-induced host plant quality change in a Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) metapopulation. We combine nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy on the plant metabolome, larval developmental assays and an RNA sequencing analysis of the larval transcriptome. We observed that responses to feeding on water-limited plants, in which amino acids and aromatic compounds are enriched, showed marked variation within the metapopulation, with individuals of some families performing better on control and others on water-limited plants. The transcriptomic responses were concordant with the developmental responses: families exhibiting opposite developmental responses also produced opposite transcriptomic responses (e.g. in growth-associated transcripts). The divergent responses in both larval development and transcriptome are associated with differences between families in amino acid catabolism and storage protein production. The results reveal intrapopulation variability in plasticity, suggesting that the Finnish M. cinxia metapopulation harbours potential for buffering against drought-induced changes in host plant quality.

Spatially structured eco-evolutionary dynamics in a host-pathogen interaction render isolated populations vulnerable to disease

While the negative effects that pathogens have on their hosts are well-documented in humans and agricultural systems, direct evidence of pathogen-driven impacts in wild host populations is scarce and mixed. Here, to determine how the strength of pathogen-imposed selection depends on spatial structure, we analyze growth rates across approximately 4000 host populations of a perennial plant through time coupled with data on pathogen presence-absence. We find that infection decreases growth more in the isolated than well-connected host populations. Our inoculation study reveals isolated populations to be highly susceptible to disease while connected host populations support the highest levels of resistance diversity, regardless of their disease history. A spatial eco-evolutionary model predicts that non-linearity in the costs to resistance may be critical in determining this pattern. Overall, evolutionary feedbacks define the ecological impacts of disease in spatially structured systems with host gene flow being more important than disease history in determining the outcome.

Disturbance and nutrients synchronise kelp forests across scales through interacting Moran effects

Spatial synchrony is a ubiquitous and important feature of population dynamics, but many aspects of this phenomenon are not well understood. In particular, it is largely unknown how multiple environmental drivers interact to determine synchrony via Moran effects, and how these impacts vary across spatial and temporal scales. Using new wavelet statistical techniques, we characterised synchrony in populations of giant kelp Macrocystis pyrifera, a widely distributed marine foundation species, and related synchrony to variation in oceanographic conditions across 33 years (1987-2019) and >900 km of coastline in California, USA. We discovered that disturbance (storm-driven waves) and resources (seawater nutrients)-underpinned by climatic variability-act individually and interactively to produce synchrony in giant kelp across geography and timescales. Our findings demonstrate that understanding and predicting synchrony, and thus the regional stability of populations, relies on resolving the synergistic and antagonistic Moran effects of multiple environmental drivers acting on different timescales.

Multi-surveyor capture-mark-recapture as a powerful tool for butterfly population monitoring in the pre-imaginal stage

For many elusive insect species, which are difficult to cover by standard monitoring schemes, innovative survey methods are needed to gain robust data on abundance and population trends. We suggest a monitoring of overwintering larvae for the endangered nymphalid butterfly Limenitis reducta. We tested different removal and capture-mark-recapture (CMR) approaches in a field study in the "Alb-Donau" region, Germany. Classical removal and CMR studies require movement of the organisms under study, but in our approach, we replaced movement of the study organisms by random movement of multiple different surveyors. We tested the validity of the approach by comparing detection frequencies from our field data with simulated detections. Our results indicate that multi-surveyor removal/CMR techniques are suitable for estimating abundance of overwintering L. reducta larvae. Depending on surveyor experience, the average detection probability ranged between 16% for novices and 35% for experts. The uncertainty of population estimates increased with a decrease in personnel expenditure. Estimated larval densities on a spruce clear-cut varied between one and three individuals per 100 m2, probably related to habitat conditions. We suggest a CMR approach with three to four trained surveyors for the monitoring of L. reducta populations in the overwintering stage. Compared with previous sampling methods, our approach is a powerful tool with clear advantages: long survey period, estimates of the absolute population size accompanied by uncertainty measures, and estimates of overwinter mortality. The proposed method can be adapted and used for several different butterfly species, other insect taxa with specific immobile life stages, and some sessile organisms, for example, elusive plants, fungi, or corals.

Effects of environment and genotype on dispersal differ across departure, transfer and settlement in a butterfly metapopulation

Active dispersal is driven by extrinsic and intrinsic factors at the three stages of departure, transfer and settlement. Most empirical studies capture only one stage of this complex process, and knowledge of how much can be generalized from one stage to another remains unknown. Here we use genetic assignment tests to reconstruct dispersal across 5 years and 232 habitat patches of a Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) metapopulation. We link individual dispersal events to weather, landscape structure, size and quality of habitat patches, and individual genotype to identify the factors that influence the three stages of dispersal and post-settlement survival. We found that nearly all tested factors strongly affected departure probabilities, but that the same factors explained very little variation in realized dispersal distances. Surprisingly, we found no effect of dispersal distance on post-settlement survival. Rather, survival was influenced by weather conditions, quality of the natal habitat patch, and a strong interaction between genotype and occupancy status of the settled habitat patch, with more mobile genotypes having higher survival as colonists rather than as immigrants. Our work highlights the multi-causality of dispersal and that some dispersal costs can only be understood by considering extrinsic and intrinsic factors and their interaction across the entire dispersal process.

Altered within- and between-host transmission under coinfection underpin parasite co-occurrence patterns in the wild

Interactions among parasite species coinfecting the same host individual can have far reaching consequences for parasite ecology and evolution. How these within-host interactions affect epidemics may depend on two non-exclusive mechanisms: parasite growth and reproduction within hosts, and parasite transmission between hosts. Yet, how these two mechanisms operate under coinfection, and how sensitive they are to the composition of the coinfecting parasite community, remains poorly understood. Here, we test the hypothesis that the relationship between within- and between-host transmission of the fungal pathogen, Phomopsis subordinaria, is affected by co-occurring parasites infecting the host plant, Plantago lanceolata. We conducted a field experiment manipulating the parasite community of transmission source plants, then tracked P. subordinaria within-host transmission, as well as between-host transmission to naïve recipient plants. We find that coinfection with the powdery mildew pathogen, Podosphaera plantaginis, causes increased between-host transmission of P. subordinaria by affecting the number of infected flower stalks in the source plants, resulting from altered auto-infection. In contrast, coinfection with viruses did not have an effect on either within- or between-host transmission. We then analyzed data on the occurrence of P. subordinaria in 2018 and the powdery mildew in a multi-year survey data set from natural host populations to test whether the positive association predicted by our experimental results is evident in field epidemiological data. Consistent with our experimental findings, we observed a positive association in the occurrence of P. subordinaria and historical powdery mildew persistence. Jointly, our experimental and epidemiological results suggest that within- and between-host transmission of P. subordinaria depends on the identity of coinfecting parasites, with potentially far-reaching effects on disease dynamics and parasite co-occurrence patterns in wild populations.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10682-022-10182-9.

Coinfection with a virus constrains within-host infection load but increases transmission potential of a highly virulent fungal plant pathogen

The trade-off between within-host infection rate and transmission to new hosts is predicted to constrain pathogen evolution, and to maintain polymorphism in pathogen populations. Pathogen life-history stages and their correlations that underpin infection development may change under coinfection with other parasites as they compete for the same limited host resources. Cross-kingdom interactions are common among pathogens in both natural and cultivated systems, yet their impacts on disease ecology and evolution are rarely studied. The host plant Plantago lanceolata is naturally infected by both Phomopsis subordinaria, a seed killing fungus, as well as Plantago lanceolata latent virus (PlLV) in the Åland Islands, SW Finland. We performed an inoculation assay to test whether coinfection with PlLV affects performance of two P. subordinaria strains, and the correlation between within-host infection rate and transmission potential. The strains differed in the measured life-history traits and their correlations. Moreover, we found that under virus coinfection, within-host infection rate of P. subordinaria was smaller but transmission potential was higher compared to strains under single infection. The negative correlation between within-host infection rate and transmission potential detected under single infection became positive under coinfection with PlLV. To understand whether within-host and between-host dynamics are correlated in wild populations, we surveyed 260 natural populations of P. lanceolata for P. subordinaria infection occurrence. When infections were found, we estimated between-hosts dynamics by determining pathogen population size as the proportion of infected individuals, and within-host dynamics by counting the proportion of infected flower stalks in 10 infected plants. In wild populations, the proportion of infected flower stalks was positively associated with pathogen population size. Jointly, our results suggest that the trade-off between within-host infection load and transmission may be strain specific, and that the pathogen life-history that underpin epidemics may change depending on the diversity of infection, generating variation in disease dynamics.

Improved chromosome-level genome assembly of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) integrating Pacific Biosciences long reads and a high-density linkage map

BACKGROUND

The Glanville fritillary (Melitaea cinxia) butterfly is a model system for metapopulation dynamics research in fragmented landscapes. Here, we provide a chromosome-level assembly of the butterfly's genome produced from Pacific Biosciences sequencing of a pool of males, combined with a linkage map from population crosses.

RESULTS

The final assembly size of 484 Mb is an increase of 94 Mb on the previously published genome. Estimation of the completeness of the genome with BUSCO indicates that the genome contains 92-94% of the BUSCO genes in complete and single copies. We predicted 14,810 genes using the MAKER pipeline and manually curated 1,232 of these gene models.

CONCLUSIONS

The genome and its annotated gene models are a valuable resource for future comparative genomics, molecular biology, transcriptome, and genetics studies on this species.

Warm-night temperature alters paternal allocation strategy in a North temperate-zone butterfly

Warming temperatures are greatly impacting wild organisms across the globe. Some of the negative impacts of climate change can be mitigated behaviorally, for example, by changes in habitat and oviposition site choice. Temperatures are reportedly warming faster at night than during the day, yet studies assessing the impacts of increasing night temperature are rare. We used the Finnish Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) as study species and exposed adult butterflies of both sexes to warmer night conditions. Under a seminatural outdoor enclosure, we assessed whether females base their oviposition choices primarily on habitat site characteristics (open, suggestive of dry meadows, versus covered by a coarse canopy, suggestive of pastures) or on plant condition (dry vs. lush), and if their choice is altered by the thermal conditions experienced at night. As exposure to warmer environmental conditions is expected to increase resting metabolic rate and potentially reduce life expectancy, we further assessed the fitness implications of warm-night temperatures. We found that females prefer open sites for oviposition and that females do not switch their oviposition strategy based on the thermal conditions they experienced at night prior to the reproductive event. Exposure to warm nights did not influence female lifespan, but the egg hatching success of their offspring was reduced. In addition, we found that males exposed to warm nights sired larger clutches with higher hatching rate. As warm-night exposure reduced male lifespan, this may imply a switch in male resource allocation strategy toward increased offspring quality. The present work adds on to the complex implications of climate warming and highlights the importance of the often-neglected role of males in shaping offspring performance.

Metapopulation capacity determines food chain length in fragmented landscapes

Understanding the persistence of populations in fragmented landscapes is critical for predicting the consequences of habitat destruction, yet analytical tools are largely lacking. Metapopulation capacity provides one such tool, because it summarizes the influences of habitat area and distribution on population persistence in a single metric. However, surprisingly few efforts have extended this theory to multispecies communities. Our analyses demonstrate the power of metapopulation capacity theory in predicting the persistence of prey–predator pairs and food chains in heterogeneous, fragmented landscapes. Such analytic insights serve as a benchmark to predict the consequences of habitat changes. Our findings thus have broad implications for both ecological research and conservation practices.

Metapopulation capacity provides an analytic tool to quantify the impact of landscape configuration on metapopulation persistence, which has proven powerful in biological conservation. Yet surprisingly few efforts have been made to apply this approach to multispecies systems. Here, we extend metapopulation capacity theory to predict the persistence of trophically interacting species. Our results demonstrate that metapopulation capacity could be used to predict the persistence of trophic systems such as prey–predator pairs and food chains in fragmented landscapes. In particular, we derive explicit predictions for food chain length as a function of metapopulation capacity, top-down control, and population dynamical parameters. Under certain assumptions, we show that the fraction of empty patches for the basal species provides a useful indicator to predict the length of food chains that a fragmented landscape can support and confirm this prediction for a host–parasitoid interaction. We further show that the impact of habitat changes on biodiversity can be predicted from changes in metapopulation capacity or approximately by changes in the fraction of empty patches. Our study provides an important step toward a spatially explicit theory of trophic metacommunities and a useful tool for predicting their responses to habitat changes.

Long-term spatiotemporal genetic structure of an accidental parasitoid introduction, and local changes in prevalence of its associated Wolbachia symbiont

Population bottlenecks associated with founder events strongly impact the establishment and genetic makeup of populations. In addition to their genotype, founding individuals also bring along parasites, as well as symbionts that can manipulate the phenotype of their host, affecting the host population establishment, dynamics and evolution. Thus, to understand introduction, invasion, and spread, we should identify the roles played by accompanying symbionts. In 1991, the parasitoid wasp, Hyposoter horticola, and its associated hyperparasitoid were accidentally introduced from the main Åland islands, Finland, to an isolated island in the archipelago, along with their host, the Glanville fritillary butterfly. Though the receiving island was unoccupied, the butterfly was present on some of the small islands in the vicinity. The three introduced species have persisted locally ever since. A strain of the endosymbiotic bacterium Wolbachia has an intermediate prevalence in the parasitoid H. horticola across the main Åland population. The infection increases its susceptibility of to hyperparasitism. We investigated the establishment and spread of the parasitoid, along with patterns of prevalence of its symbiont using 323 specimens collected between 1992 and 2013, from five localities across Åland, including the source and introduced populations. Using 14 microsatellites and one mitochondrial marker, we suggest that the relatively diverse founding population and occasional migration between islands might have facilitated the persistence of all isolated populations, despite multiple local population crashes. We also show that where the hyperparasitoid is absent, and thus selection against infected wasp genotypes is relaxed, there is near-fixation of Wolbachia.

Agricultural land use disrupts biodiversity mediation of virus infections in wild plant populations

Human alteration of natural habitats may change the processes governing species interactions in wild communities. Wild populations are increasingly impacted by agricultural intensification, yet it is unknown whether this alters biodiversity mediation of disease dynamics. We investigated the association between plant diversity (species richness, diversity) and infection risk (virus richness, prevalence) in populations of Plantago lanceolata in natural landscapes as well as those occurring at the edges of cultivated fields. Altogether, 27 P. lanceolata populations were surveyed for population characteristics and sampled for PCR detection of five recently characterized viruses. We find that plant species richness and diversity correlated negatively with virus infection prevalence. Virus species richness declined with increasing plant diversity and richness in natural populations while in agricultural edge populations species richness was moderately higher, and not associated with plant richness. This difference was not explained by changes in host richness between these two habitats, suggesting potential pathogen spill-over and increased transmission of viruses across the agro-ecological interface. Host population connectivity significantly decreased virus infection prevalence. We conclude that human use of landscapes may change the ecological laws by which natural communities are formed with far reaching implications for ecosystem functioning and disease.

Plantago spp. as Models for Studying the Ecology and Evolution of Species Interactions across Environmental Gradients

AbstractA central challenge in ecology and evolutionary biology is to understand how variation in abiotic and biotic factors combine to shape the distribution, abundance, and diversity of focal species. Environmental gradients, whether natural (e.g., latitude, elevation, ocean proximity) or anthropogenic (e.g., land-use intensity, urbanization), provide compelling settings for addressing this challenge. However, not all organisms are amenable to the observational and experimental approaches required for untangling the factors that structure species along gradients. Here we highlight herbaceous plants in the genus Plantago as models for studying the ecology and evolution of species interactions along abiotic gradients. Plantago lanceolata and P. major are native to Europe and Asia but distributed globally, and they are established models for studying population ecology and interactions with herbivores, pathogens, and soil microbes. Studying restricted range congeners in comparison with those cosmopolitan species can provide insight into abiotic and biotic determinants of range size and population structure. We highlight one such species, P. rugelii, which is endemic to eastern North America. We give an overview of the literature on these focal Plantago species and explain why they are logical candidates for studies of species interactions across environmental gradients. Finally, we emphasize collaborative and community science approaches that can facilitate such research and note the amenability of Plantago for authentic research projects in science education.

Multidimensional plasticity in the Glanville fritillary butterfly: larval performance is temperature, host and family specific

Variation in environmental conditions during development can lead to changes in life-history traits with long-lasting effects. Here, we study how variation in temperature and host plant (i.e. the consequences of potential maternal oviposition choices) affects a suite of life-history traits in pre-diapause larvae of the Glanville fritillary butterfly. We focus on offspring survival, larval growth rates and relative fat reserves, and pay specific attention to intraspecific variation in the responses (G × E × E). Globally, thermal performance and survival curves varied between diets of two host plants, suggesting that host modifies the temperature impact, or vice versa. Additionally, we show that the relative fat content has a host-dependent, discontinuous response to developmental temperature. This implies that a potential switch in resource allocation, from more investment in growth at lower temperatures to storage at higher temperatures, is dependent on the larval diet. Interestingly, a large proportion of the variance in larval performance is explained by differences among families, or interactions with this variable. Finally, we demonstrate that these family-specific responses to the host plant remain largely consistent across thermal environments. Together, the results of our study underscore the importance of paying attention to intraspecific trait variation in the field of evolutionary ecology.

The effect of summer drought on the predictability of local extinctions in a butterfly metapopulation

The ecological impacts of extreme climatic events on population dynamics and community composition are profound and predominantly negative. Using extensive data of an ecological model system, we tested whether predictions from ecological models remain robust when environmental conditions are outside the bounds of observation. We observed a 10-fold demographic decline of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) metapopulation on the Åland islands, Finland in the summer of 2018 and used climatic and satellite data to demonstrate that this year was an anomaly with low climatic water balance values and low vegetation productivity indices across Åland. Population growth rates were strongly associated with spatiotemporal variation in climatic water balance. Covariates shown previously to affect the extinction probability of local populations in this metapopulation were less informative when populations were exposed to severe drought during the summer months. Our results highlight the unpredictable responses of natural populations to extreme climatic events.

Metapopulation dynamics over 25 years of a beetle, Osmoderma eremita, inhabiting hollow oaks

Osmoderma eremita is a species of beetle that inhabits hollows in ancient trees, which is a habitat that has decreased significantly during the last century. In southeastern Sweden, we studied the metapopulation dynamics of this beetle over a 25 year period, using capture-mark-recapture. The metapopulation size had been rather stable over time, but in most of the individual trees there had been a positive or negative trend in population development. The probability of colonisation was higher in well-connected trees with characteristics reflecting earlier successional stages, and the probability of extinction higher in trees with larger diameter (i.e. in later successional stages), which is expected from a habitat-tracking metapopulation. The annual tree mortality and fall rates (1.1% and 0.4%, respectively) are lower than the colonisation and extinction rates (5-7%), indicating that some of the metapopulation dynamics are due to the habitat dynamics, but many colonisations and extinctions take place for other reasons, such as stochastic events in small populations. The studied metapopulation occurs in an area with a high density of hollow oaks and where the oak pastures are still managed by grazing. In stands with fewer than ten suitable trees, the long-term extinction risk may be considerable, since only a small proportion of all hollow trees harbours large populations, and the population size in trees may change considerably during a decade.

Intraspecific host variation plays a key role in virus community assembly

Infection by multiple pathogens of the same host is ubiquitous in both natural and managed habitats. While intraspecific variation in disease resistance is known to affect pathogen occurrence, how differences among host genotypes affect the assembly of pathogen communities remains untested. In our experiment using cloned replicates of naive Plantago lanceolata plants as sentinels during a seasonal virus epidemic, we find non-random co-occurrence patterns of five focal viruses. Using joint species distribution modelling, we attribute the non-random virus occurrence patterns primarily to differences among host genotypes and local population context. Our results show that intraspecific variation among host genotypes may play a large, previously unquantified role in pathogen community structure.

Host-plant availability drives the spatiotemporal dynamics of interacting metapopulations across a fragmented landscape

The dynamics of ecological communities depend partly on species interactions within and among trophic levels. Experimental work has demonstrated the impact of species interactions on the species involved, but it remains unclear whether these effects can also be detected in long‐term time series across heterogeneous landscapes. We analyzed a 19‐yr time series of patch occupancy by the Glanville fritillary butterfly Melitaea cinxia, its specialist parasitoid wasp Cotesia melitaearum, and the specialist fungal pathogen Podosphaera plantaginis infecting Plantago lanceolata, a host plant of the Glanville fritillary. These species share a network of more than 4,000 habitat patches in the Åland islands, providing a metacommunity data set of unique spatial and temporal resolution. To assess the influence of interactions among the butterfly, parasitoid, and mildew on metacommunity dynamics, we modeled local colonization and extinction rates of each species while including or excluding the presence of potentially interacting species in the previous year as predictors. The metapopulation dynamics of all focal species varied both along a gradient in host plant abundance, and spatially as indicated by strong effects of local connectivity. Colonization and to a lesser extent extinction rates depended also on the presence of interacting species within patches. However, the directions of most effects differed from expectations based on previous experimental and modeling work, and the inferred influence of species interactions on observed metacommunity dynamics was limited. These results suggest that although local interactions among the butterfly, parasitoid, and mildew occur, their roles in metacommunity spatiotemporal dynamics are relatively weak. Instead, all species respond to variation in plant abundance, which may in turn fluctuate in response to variation in climate, land use, or other environmental factors.

Beyond thermal melanism: association of wing melanization with fitness and flight behaviour in a butterfly

Cold developmental conditions can greatly affect adult life history of ectotherms in seasonal habitats. Such effects are mostly negative, but sometimes adaptive. Here, we tested how cold conditions experienced during pupal development affect adult wing melanization of an insect ectotherm, the Glanville fritillary butterfly, Melitaea cinxia. We also assessed how in turn previous cold exposure and increased melanization can shape adult behaviour and fitness, by monitoring individuals in a seminatural set-up. We found that, despite pupal cold exposure inducing more melanization, wing melanization was not linked to adult thermoregulation preceding flight, under the conditions tested. Conversely, wing-vibrating behaviour had a major role in producing heat preceding flight. Moreover, more melanized individuals were more mobile across the experimental set-up. This may be caused by a direct impact of melanization on flight ability or a more indirect impact of coloration on behaviours such as mate search strategies and/or eagerness to disperse to more suitable mating habitats. We also found that more melanized individuals of both sexes had reduced mating success and produced fewer offspring, which suggests a clear fitness cost of melanization. Whether the reduced mating success is dictated by impaired mate search behaviour, reduced physical condition leading to a lower dominance status or weakened visual signalling remains unknown. In conclusion, while there was no clear role of melanization in providing a thermal advantage under our seminatural conditions, we found a fitness cost of being more melanized, which potentially impacted adult space use behaviour.

Facilitative priority effects drive parasite assembly under coinfection

Host individuals are often coinfected with diverse parasite assemblages, resulting in complex interactions among parasites within hosts. Within hosts, priority effects occur when the infection sequence alters the outcome of interactions among parasites. Yet, the role of host immunity in this process remains poorly understood. We hypothesized that the host response to the first infection could generate priority effects among parasites, altering the assembly of later-arriving strains during epidemics. We tested this by infecting sentinel host genotypes of Plantago lanceolata with strains of the fungal parasite Podosphaera plantaginis and measuring susceptibility to subsequent infection during experimental and natural epidemics. In these experiments, prior infection by one strain often increased susceptibility to other strains, and these facilitative priority effects altered the structure of parasite assemblages, but this effect depended on host genotype, host population and parasite genotype. Thus, host genotype, spatial structure and priority effects among strains all independently altered parasite assembly. Using a fine-scale survey and sampling of infections on wild hosts in several populations, we then identified a signal of facilitative priority effects, which altered parasite assembly during natural epidemics. Together, these results provide evidence that within-host priority effects of early-arriving strains can drive parasite assembly, with implications for how strain diversity is spatially and temporally distributed during epidemics.

Perturbation drives changing metapopulation dynamics in a top marine predator

Metapopulation theory assumes a balance between local decays/extinctions and local growth/new colonisations. Here we investigate whether recent population declines across part of the UK harbour seal range represent normal metapopulation dynamics or are indicative of perturbations potentially threatening the metapopulation viability, using 20 years of population trends, location tracking data (n = 380), and UK-wide, multi-generational population genetic data (n = 269). First, we use microsatellite data to show that two genetic groups previously identified are distinct metapopulations: northern and southern. Then, we characterize the northern metapopulation dynamics in two different periods, before and after the start of regional declines (pre-/peri-perturbation). We identify source-sink dynamics across the northern metapopulation, with two putative source populations apparently supporting three likely sink populations, and a recent metapopulation-wide disruption of migration coincident with the perturbation. The northern metapopulation appears to be in decay, highlighting that changes in local populations can lead to radical alterations in the overall metapopulation's persistence and dynamics.

The spread of a wild plant pathogen is driven by the road network

Spatial analyses of pathogen occurrence in their natural surroundings entail unique opportunities for assessing in vivo drivers of disease epidemiology. Such studies are however confronted by the complexity of the landscape driving epidemic spread and disease persistence. Since relevant information on how the landscape influences epidemiological dynamics is rarely available, simple spatial models of spread are often used. In the current study we demonstrate both how more complex transmission pathways could be incorpoted to epidemiological analyses and how this can offer novel insights into understanding disease spread across the landscape. Our study is focused on Podosphaera plantaginis, a powdery mildew pathogen that transmits from one host plant to another by wind-dispersed spores. Its host populations often reside next to roads and thus we hypothesize that the road network influences the epidemiology of P. plantaginis. To analyse the impact of roads on the transmission dynamics, we consider a spatial dataset on the presence-absence records on the pathogen collected from a fragmented landscape of host populations. Using both mechanistic transmission modeling and statistical modeling with road-network summary statistics as predictors, we conclude the evident role of the road network in the progression of the epidemics: a phenomena which is manifested both in the enhanced transmission along the roads and in infections typically occurring at the central hub locations of the road network. We also demonstrate how the road network affects the spread of the pathogen using simulations. Jointly our results highlight how human alteration of natural landscapes may increase disease spread.

The microbiome of the Melitaea cinxia butterfly shows marked variation but is only little explained by the traits of the butterfly or its host plant

Understanding of the ecological factors that shape intraspecific variation of insect microbiota in natural populations is relatively poor. In Lepidopteran caterpillars, microbiota is assumed to be mainly composed of transient bacterial symbionts acquired from the host plant. We sampled Glanville fritillary (Melitaea cinxia) caterpillars from natural populations to describe their gut microbiome and to identify potential ecological factors that determine its structure. Our results demonstrate high variability of microbiota composition even among caterpillars that shared the same host plant individual and most likely the same genetic background. We observed that the caterpillars harboured microbial classes that varied among individuals and alternated between two distinct communities (one composed of mainly Enterobacteriaceae and another with more variable microbiota community). Even though the general structure of the microbiota was not attributed to the measured ecological factors, we found that phylogenetically similar microbiota showed corresponding responses to the sex and the parasitoid infection of the caterpillar and to those of the host plant's microbial and chemical composition. Our results indicate high among-individual variability in the microbiota of the M. cinxia caterpillar and contradict previous findings that the host plant is the major driver of the microbiota communities of insect herbivores.

Estimation of metapopulation colonization rates from disturbance history and occurrence-pattern data

Occurrence patterns of many sessile species in dynamic landscapes are not in equilibrium due to their slow rates of metapopulation colonization and extinction. Colonization-extinction data enable the estimation of colonization rates for such species, but collecting the necessary data may require long waiting times between sampling years. Methods for estimating colonization rates of nonequilibrium metapopulations from single occurrence-pattern data have so far relied on additional data on patch ages and on past patch connectivities. We present an approach where metapopulation colonization rates are estimated from occurrence-pattern data and from disturbance history data that inform of past patch dynamics and that can be collected together with occurrence-pattern data. We estimated parameter values regulating patch and metapopulation dynamics by simulating patch network and metapopulation histories that result in present-like patch network configurations and metapopulation occurrence patterns. We tested our approach using occurrence-pattern data of the epiphytic lichen Lobaria pulmonaria in Fennoscandian forests, and fire-scar data that inform of the 400-yr history of fires and host tree dynamics in the same landscapes. The estimated model parameters were similar to estimates obtained using colonization-extinction data. The projected L. pulmonaria occupancy into the future also agreed with the respective projections that were made using the model estimated from colonization-extinction data. Our approach accelerates the estimation of metapopulation colonization rates for sessile species that are not in metapopulation equilibrium with the current landscape structure.

Scaling up the effects of inbreeding depression from individuals to metapopulations

Inbreeding is common in nature, and many laboratory studies have documented that inbreeding depression can reduce the fitness of individuals. Demonstrating the consequences of inbreeding depression on the growth and persistence of populations is more challenging because populations are often regulated by density- or frequency-dependent selection and influenced by demographic and environmental stochasticity. A few empirical studies have shown that inbreeding depression can increase extinction risk of local populations. The importance of inbreeding depression at the metapopulation level has been conjectured based on population-level studies but has not been evaluated. We quantified the impact of inbreeding depression affecting the fitness of individuals on metapopulation persistence in heterogeneous habitat networks of different sizes and habitat configuration in a context of natural butterfly metapopulations. We developed a spatial individual-based simulation model of metapopulations with explicit genetics. We used Approximate Bayesian Computation to fit the model to extensive demographic, genetic and life-history data available for the well-studied Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) metapopulations in the Åland islands in SW Finland. We compared 18 semi-independent habitat networks differing in size and fragmentation. The results show that inbreeding is more frequent in small habitat networks, and consequently, inbreeding depression elevates extinction risks in small metapopulations. Metapopulation persistence and neutral genetic diversity maintained in the metapopulations increase with the total habitat amount in and mean patch size of habitat networks. Dispersal and mating behaviour interact with landscape structure to determine how likely it is to encounter kin while looking for mates. Inbreeding depression can decrease the viability of small metapopulations even when they are strongly influenced by stochastic extinction-colonization dynamics and density-dependent selection. The findings from this study support that genetic factors, in addition to demographic factors, can contribute to extinctions of small local populations and also of metapopulations.

Variable opportunities for outcrossing result in hotspots of novel genetic variation in a pathogen metapopulation

Many pathogens possess the capacity for sex through outcrossing, despite being able to reproduce also asexually and/or via selfing. Given that sex is assumed to come at a cost, these mixed reproductive strategies typical of pathogens have remained puzzling. While the ecological and evolutionary benefits of outcrossing are theoretically well-supported, support for such benefits in pathogen populations are still scarce. Here, we analyze the epidemiology and genetic structure of natural populations of an obligate fungal pathogen, Podosphaera plantaginis. We find that the opportunities for outcrossing vary spatially. Populations supporting high levels of coinfection –a prerequisite of sex – result in hotspots of novel genetic diversity. Pathogen populations supporting coinfection also have a higher probability of surviving winter. Jointly our results show that outcrossing has direct epidemiological consequences as well as a major impact on pathogen population genetic diversity, thereby providing evidence of ecological and evolutionary benefits of outcrossing in pathogens.

The existence of sex – broadly defined as the coming together of genes from different individuals – is one of the big evolutionary puzzles. Reproduction allows an organism to pass on its genes to future generations. However, while asexual and self-fertilizing individuals transmit all of their genes to their offspring, individuals that reproduce through sex transmit only half of their genome. This is considered the cost of sex.

Many pathogens reproduce through sex, despite often also being able to reproduce asexually or by self-fertilization. Typically a pre-requisite of sex in pathogens is for at least two different strains to infect the same host. Aside from this limitation, little is known about when, where and why pathogens have sex. It has been tricky to study due to the microscopic size of pathogens and the difficulties of identifying different sexes. Moreover, sexual reproduction may be triggered by environmental cues that are difficult to mimic under controlled experimental conditions.

Are there any benefits associated with pathogen sex? To find out, Laine et al. analyzed data collected over the course of four years from thousands of populations of a powdery mildew fungus that infected plants across the Åland islands. This revealed that the opportunities for pathogen sex vary in different locations. Areas where multiple strains of the fungus commonly infect the same plants result in hotspots of new genetic diversity. These mixed populations are also more likely to survive winter. This demonstrates the potential for pathogen sexual reproduction to provide an ecological benefit.

Identifying areas and populations where pathogens have sex can help to identify when and where new strains are most likely to emerge. In the future, studies that use similar methods to Laine et al. could help to predict where infections and diseases are highly likely to arise.

Developmental stage-dependent response and preference for host plant quality in an insect herbivore

Larval-derived nutritional reserves are essential in shaping insects' adult fitness. Early larval instars of many Lepidopteran species are often sessile, and the conditions experienced by these larvae are often highly dependent on the mother's oviposition choice. Later larval stages are more mobile and therefore can choose their food whenever alternatives are available. We tested how feeding on a drought-exposed host plant impacts life history in an insect herbivore, and whether the observed responses depended on developmental stage. We used drought to alter host plant quality of the ribwort plantain, Plantago lanceolata, and assessed whether host plant preference of postdiapause larvae and adult females increased their own or their offspring's performance, respectively, in the Glanville fritillary butterfly, Melitaea cinxia. Larval response to drought-exposed host plants varied with developmental stage: early larval stages (prediapause) had decreased survival and body mass on drought-exposed plants, while later larval stages (postdiapause) developed faster, weighed more and had a higher growth rate on the drought-exposed plants. Postdiapause larvae also showed a preference for drought-exposed host plants, i.e. those that increased their performance, but only when fed on well-watered host plants. Adult females, on the other hand, showed an oviposition preference for well-watered plants, hence matching the performance of their prediapause but not their postdiapause offspring. Our results highlight how variation in environmental conditions generates stage-specific responses in insects. Individuals fine-tune their own or their offspring's diet by behavioural adjustments when variation in host plant quality is available.

Moderate plant water stress improves larval development, and impacts immunity and gut microbiota of a specialist herbivore

While host plant drought is generally viewed as a negative phenomenon, its impact on insect herbivores can vary largely depending on the species involved and on the intensity of the drought. Extreme drought killing host plants can clearly reduce herbivore fitness, but the impact of moderate host plant water stress on insect herbivores can vary, and may even be beneficial. The populations of the Finnish Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) have faced reduced precipitation in recent years, with impacts even on population dynamics. Whether the negative effects of low precipitation are solely due to extreme desiccation killing the host plant or whether moderate drought reduces plant quality for the larvae remains unknown. We assessed the performance of larvae fed on moderately water-stressed Plantago lanceolata in terms of growth, survival, and immune response, and additionally were interested to assess whether the gut microbial composition of the larvae changed due to modification of the host plant. We found that larvae fed on water-stressed plants had increased growth, with no impact on survival, up-regulated the expression of one candidate immune gene (pelle), and had a more heterogeneous bacterial community and a shifted fungal community in the gut. Most of the measured traits showed considerable variation due to family structure. Our data suggest that in temperate regions moderate host plant water stress can positively shape resource acquisition of this specialized insect herbivore, potentially by increasing nutrient accessibility or concentration. Potentially, the better larval performance may be mediated by a shift of the microbiota on water-stressed plants, calling for further research especially on the understudied gut fungal community.

Diverse and variable virus communities in wild plant populations revealed by metagenomic tools

Wild plant populations may harbour a myriad of unknown viruses. As the majority of research efforts have targeted economically important plant species, the diversity and prevalence of viruses in the wild has remained largely unknown. However, the recent shift towards metagenomics-based sequencing methodologies, especially those targeting small RNAs, is finally enabling virus discovery from wild hosts. Understanding this diversity of potentially pathogenic microbes in the wild can offer insights into the components of natural biodiversity that promotes long-term coexistence between hosts and parasites in nature, and help predict when and where risks of disease emergence are highest. Here, we used small RNA deep sequencing to identify viruses in Plantago lanceolata populations, and to understand the variation in their prevalence and distribution across the Åland Islands, South-West Finland. By subsequent design of PCR primers, we screened the five most common viruses from two sets of P. lanceolata plants: 164 plants collected from 12 populations irrespective of symptoms, and 90 plants collected from five populations showing conspicuous viral symptoms. In addition to the previously reported species Plantago lanceolata latent virus (PlLV), we found four potentially novel virus species belonging to Caulimovirus, Betapartitivirus, Enamovirus, and Closterovirus genera. Our results show that virus prevalence and diversity varied among the sampled host populations. In six of the virus infected populations only a single virus species was detected, while five of the populations supported between two to five of the studied virus species. In 20% of the infected plants, viruses occurred as coinfections. When the relationship between conspicuous viral symptoms and virus infection was investigated, we found that plants showing symptoms were usually infected (84%), but virus infections were also detected from asymptomatic plants (44%). Jointly, these results reveal a diverse virus community with newly developed tools and protocols that offer exciting opportunities for future studies on the eco-evolutionary dynamics of viruses infecting plants in the wild.

Silk properties and overwinter survival in gregarious butterfly larvae

All organisms are challenged by encounters with parasites, which strongly select for efficient escape strategies in the host. The threat is especially high for gregarious species entering immobile periods, such as diapause. Larvae of the Glanville fritillary butterfly, Melitaea cinxia, spend the winter in diapause in groups of conspecifics each sheltered in a silk nest. Despite intensive monitoring of the population, we have little understanding of the ecological factors influencing larval survival over the winter in the field. We tested whether qualitative and quantitative properties of the silk nest contribute to larval survival over diapause. We used comparative proteomics, metabarcoding analyses, microscopic imaging, and in vitro experiments to compare protein composition of the silk, community composition of the silk-associated microbiota, and silk density from both wild-collected and laboratory-reared families, which survived or died in the field. Although most traits assessed varied across families, only silk density was correlated with overwinter survival in the field. The silk nest spun by gregarious larvae before the winter acts as an efficient breathable physical shield that positively affects larval survival during diapause. Such benefit may explain how this costly trait is conserved across populations of this butterfly species and potentially across other silk-spinning insect species.

Multiscale patterns and drivers of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal communities in the roots and root-associated soil of a wild perennial herb

Arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi form diverse communities and are known to influence above-ground community dynamics and biodiversity. However, the multiscale patterns and drivers of AM fungal composition and diversity are still poorly understood. We sequenced DNA markers from roots and root-associated soil from Plantago lanceolata plants collected across multiple spatial scales to allow comparison of AM fungal communities among neighbouring plants, plant subpopulations, nearby plant populations, and regions. We also measured soil nutrients, temperature, humidity, and community composition of neighbouring plants and nonAM root-associated fungi. AM fungal communities were already highly dissimilar among neighbouring plants (c. 30 cm apart), albeit with a high variation in the degree of similarity at this small spatial scale. AM fungal communities were increasingly, and more consistently, dissimilar at larger spatial scales. Spatial structure and environmental drivers explained a similar percentage of the variation, from 7% to 25%. A large fraction of the variation remained unexplained, which may be a result of unmeasured environmental variables, species interactions and stochastic processes. We conclude that AM fungal communities are highly variable among nearby plants. AM fungi may therefore play a major role in maintaining small-scale variation in community dynamics and biodiversity.

Landscape permeability and individual variation in a dispersal-linked gene jointly determine genetic structure in the Glanville fritillary butterfly

There is now clear evidence that species across a broad range of taxa harbor extensive heritable variation in dispersal. While studies suggest that this variation can facilitate demographic outcomes such as range expansion and invasions, few have considered the consequences of intraspecific variation in dispersal for the maintenance and distribution of genetic variation across fragmented landscapes. Here, we examine how landscape characteristics and individual variation in dispersal combine to predict genetic structure using genomic and spatial data from the Glanville fritillary butterfly. We used linear and latent factor mixed models to identify the landscape features that best predict spatial sorting of alleles in the dispersal-related gene phosphoglucose isomerase (Pgi). We next used structural equation modeling to test if variation in Pgi mediated gene flow as measured by Fst at putatively neutral loci. In a year when the population was recovering following a large decline, individuals with a genotype associated with greater dispersal ability were found at significantly higher frequencies in populations isolated by water and forest, and these populations showed lower levels of genetic differentiation at neutral loci. These relationships disappeared in the next year when metapopulation density was high, suggesting that the effects of individual variation are context dependent. Together our results highlight that (1) more complex aspects of landscape structure beyond just the configuration of habitat can be important for maintaining spatial variation in dispersal traits and (2) that individual variation in dispersal plays a key role in maintaining genetic variation across fragmented landscapes.

Role of Temperature and Coinfection in Mediating Pathogen Life-History Traits

Understanding processes maintaining variation in pathogen life-history traits is a key challenge in disease biology, and of importance for predicting when and where risks of disease emergence are highest. Pathogens are expected to encounter tremendous levels of variation in their environment - both abiotic and biotic - and this variation may promote maintenance of variation in pathogen populations through space and time. Here, we measure life-history traits of an obligate fungal pathogen at both asexual and sexual stages under both single infection and coinfection along a temperature gradient. We find that temperature had a significant effect on all measured life-history traits while coinfection only had a significant effect on the number of sexual resting structures produced. The effect of temperature on life-history traits was both direct as well as mediated through a genotype-by-temperature interaction. We conclude that pathogen life-history traits vary in their sensitivity to abiotic and biotic variation in the environment.

Manipulating host resistance structure reveals impact of pathogen dispersal and environmental heterogeneity on epidemics

Understanding how variation in hosts, parasites, and the environment shapes patterns of disease is key to predicting ecological and evolutionary outcomes of epidemics. Yet in spatially structured populations, variation in host resistance may be spatially confounded with variation in parasite dispersal and environmental factors that affect disease processes. To tease apart these disease drivers, we paired surveys of natural epidemics with experiments manipulating spatial variation in host susceptibility to infection. We mapped epidemics of the wind-dispersed powdery mildew pathogen Podosphaera plantaginis in five populations of its plant host, Plantago lanceolata. At 15 replicate sites within each population, we deployed groups of healthy potted 'sentinel' plants from five allopatric host lines. By tracking which sentinels became infected in the field and measuring pathogen connectivity and microclimate at those sites, we could test how variation in these factors affected disease when spatial variation in host resistance and soil conditions was minimized. We found that the prevalence and severity of sentinel infection varied over small spatial scales in the field populations, largely due to heterogeneity in pathogen prevalence on wild plants and unmeasured environmental factors. Microclimate was critical for disease spread only at the onset of epidemics, where humidity increased infection risk. Sentinels were more likely to become infected than initially healthy wild plants at a given field site. However, in a follow-up laboratory inoculation study we detected no significant differences between wild and sentinel plant lines in their qualitative susceptibility to pathogen isolates from the field populations, suggesting that primarily non-genetic differences between sentinel and wild hosts drove their differential infection rates in the field. Our study leverages a multi-faceted experimental approach to disentangle important biotic and abiotic drivers of disease patterns within wild populations.

Frontiers in Metapopulation Biology: The Legacy of Ilkka Hanski

This review of metapopulation biology has a special focus on Professor Ilkka Hanski's (1953–2016) research. Hanski made seminal contributions to both empirical and theoretical metapopulation biology throughout his scientific career. Hanski's early research focused on ecological aspects of metapopulation biology, in particular how the spatial structure of a landscape influences extinction thresholds and how habitat loss and fragmentation can result in extinction debt. Hanski then used the Glanville fritillary system as a natural laboratory within which he studied genetic and evolutionary processes, such as the influence of inbreeding on extinction risk and variation in selection for dispersal traits generated by landscape variation. During the last years of his career, Hanski's work was in the forefront of the rapidly developing field of eco-evolutionary dynamics. Hanski was a pioneer in showing how molecular-level underpinnings of trait variation can explain why evolutionary change can occur rapidly in natural populations and how these changes can subsequently influence ecological dynamics.

Metapopulation dynamics in a changing climate: Increasing spatial synchrony in weather conditions drives metapopulation synchrony of a butterfly inhabiting a fragmented landscape

Habitat fragmentation and climate change are both prominent manifestations of global change, but there is little knowledge on the specific mechanisms of how climate change may modify the effects of habitat fragmentation, for example, by altering dynamics of spatially structured populations. The long-term viability of metapopulations is dependent on independent dynamics of local populations, because it mitigates fluctuations in the size of the metapopulation as a whole. Metapopulation viability will be compromised if climate change increases spatial synchrony in weather conditions associated with population growth rates. We studied a recently reported increase in metapopulation synchrony of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) in the Finnish archipelago, to see if it could be explained by an increase in synchrony of weather conditions. For this, we used 23 years of butterfly survey data together with monthly weather records for the same period. We first examined the associations between population growth rates within different regions of the metapopulation and weather conditions during different life-history stages of the butterfly. We then examined the association between the trends in the synchrony of the weather conditions and the synchrony of the butterfly metapopulation dynamics. We found that precipitation from spring to late summer are associated with the M. cinxia per capita growth rate, with early summer conditions being most important. We further found that the increase in metapopulation synchrony is paralleled by an increase in the synchrony of weather conditions. Alternative explanations for spatial synchrony, such as increased dispersal or trophic interactions with a specialist parasitoid, did not show paralleled trends and are not supported. The climate driven increase in M. cinxia metapopulation synchrony suggests that climate change can increase extinction risk of spatially structured populations living in fragmented landscapes by altering their dynamics.

Increased fluctuation in a butterfly metapopulation leads to diploid males and decline of a hyperparasitoid

Climate change can increase spatial synchrony of population dynamics, leading to large-scale fluctuation that destabilizes communities. High trophic level species such as parasitoids are disproportionally affected because they depend on unstable resources. Most parasitoid wasps have complementary sex determination, producing sterile males when inbred, which can theoretically lead to population extinction via the diploid male vortex (DMV). We examined this process empirically using a hyperparasitoid population inhabiting a spatially structured host population in a large fragmented landscape. Over four years of high host butterfly metapopulation fluctuation, diploid male production by the wasp increased, and effective population size declined precipitously. Our multitrophic spatially structured model shows that host population fluctuation can cause local extinctions of the hyperparasitoid because of the DMV. However, regionally it persists because spatial structure allows for efficient local genetic rescue via balancing selection for rare alleles carried by immigrants. This is, to our knowledge, the first empirically based study of the possibility of the DMV in a natural host–parasitoid system.

Asymmetric migration decreases stability but increases resilience in a heterogeneous metapopulation

Many natural populations are spatially distributed, forming a network of subpopulations linked by migration. Migration patterns are often asymmetric and heterogeneous, with important consequences on the ecology and evolution of the species. Here we investigate experimentally how asymmetric migration and heterogeneous structure affect a simple metapopulation of budding yeast, formed by one strain that produces a public good and a non-producer strain that benefits from it. We study metapopulations with star topology and asymmetric migration, finding that all their subpopulations have a higher fraction of producers than isolated populations. Furthermore, the metapopulations have lower tolerance to challenging environments but higher resilience to transient perturbations. This apparent paradox occurs because tolerance to a constant challenge depends on the weakest subpopulations of the network, while resilience to a transient perturbation depends on the strongest ones.

Asymmetrical movement among patches could affect the stability of ecological metapopulations, but this is difficult to test empirically. Here, Limdi et al. use experimental yeast metapopulations to show that asymmetric migration decreases stability but increases resilience to transient shocks.

Rising synchrony controls western North American ecosystems

Along the western margin of North America, the winter expression of the North Pacific High (NPH) strongly influences interannual variability in coastal upwelling, storm track position, precipitation, and river discharge. Coherence among these factors induces covariance among physical and biological processes across adjacent marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we show that over the past century the degree and spatial extent of this covariance (synchrony) has substantially increased, and is coincident with rising variance in the winter NPH. Furthermore, centuries-long blue oak (Quercus douglasii) growth chronologies sensitive to the winter NPH provide robust evidence that modern levels of synchrony are among the highest observed in the context of the last 250 years. These trends may ultimately be linked to changing impacts of the El Niño Southern Oscillation on midlatitude ecosystems of North America. Such a rise in synchrony may destabilize ecosystems, expose populations to higher risks of extinction, and is thus a concern given the broad biological relevance of winter climate to biological systems.