Administrative Coding in Electronic Health Care Record-Based Research of NAFLD: An Expert Panel Consensus Statement

Association of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists with serious liver events among patients with type 2 diabetes: A Scandinavian cohort study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Clinical trials suggest that glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists may have beneficial effects on NAFLD, but the impact on hard hepatic end points is unknown. We assessed the association between the use of GLP-1 receptor agonists and the risk of serious liver events in routine clinical practice.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

Cohort study using data from nationwide registers in Sweden, Denmark, and Norway, 2007-2020, including 91,479 initiators of GLP-1 receptor agonists and 244,004 initiators of the active comparator, dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors, without a history of chronic liver disease other than NAFLD/NASH. The primary outcome was serious liver events: a composite of incident compensated and decompensated cirrhosis and HCC. Secondary outcomes were the individual components of the primary outcome. Cox regression was used to estimate HRs, using propensity score weighting to control for confounding. Users of GLP-1 receptor agonists had 608 serious liver events (adjusted incidence rate: 16.9 events per 10,000 person-years), compared with 1770 events among users of dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (19.2 events per 10,000 person-years). The adjusted HR was 0.85 (95% CI: 0.75 to 0.97), and the rate difference was -2.1 (-4.4 to 0.1) events per 10,000 person-years. In secondary outcome analyses, the adjusted HR was 0.85 (0.75 to 0.97) for compensated and decompensated cirrhosis and 1.05 (0.80 to 1.39) for HCC.

CONCLUSIONS

The use of GLP-1 receptor agonists was associated with a significantly reduced risk of serious liver events, driven by a reduction of compensated and decompensated cirrhosis.

Rising hospital admissions for alcohol-related cirrhosis and the impact of sex and comorbidity - a data linkage study

OBJECTIVES

International studies have shown shifting demographic data and rising hospitalizations for alcohol-related cirrhosis (ARC), with a paucity of data from Australia. We examined hospitalizations, mortality and demographic data for people admitted with ARC over the last decade in Queensland, Australia.

STUDY DESIGN

Data linkage study.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of adults hospitalized with ARC during 2008-2019 was performed using state-wide admissions data. International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision, codes identified admissions with the principal diagnosis of ARC based on validated algorithms. Comorbidity was assessed using the Charlson Comorbidity Index.

RESULTS

A total of 7152 individuals had 24,342 hospital admissions with ARC (16,388 were for ARC). There was a predominance of males (72.6%) and age ≥50 years (80.4%) at index admission. Females were admitted at a significantly younger age than men (59% of women and 43% of men were aged <60 years, P < 0.001). Comorbidities were common, with 45.1% of people having at least one comorbidity. More than half (54.6%) of the patients died over the study period (median follow-up time was 5.1 years; interquartile range 2.4-8.6). Women had significantly lower mortality, with 47.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] 45.0-50.2) probability of 5-year survival, compared with 40.1% (95% CI 38.5-41.6) in men. In multivariable analysis, this was attributable to significantly lower age and comorbidity burden in women. Significantly lower survival was seen in people with higher comorbidity burden. Overall, the number of admissions for ARC increased 2.2-fold from 869 admissions in 2008 to 1932 in 2019.

CONCLUSIONS

Hospital admissions for ARC have risen substantially in the last decade. Females were admitted at a younger age, with fewer comorbidities and had lower mortality compared with males. The association between greater comorbidity burden and higher mortality has important clinical implications, as comorbidity-directed interventions may reduce mortality.

Substitutions of saturated fat intakes with other macronutrients and foods and risk of NAFLD cirrhosis and all-cause hepatocellular carcinoma: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Short-term trials have shown a reduction in liver fat when saturated fatty acids (SFA) are substituted with polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA), or with low-glycemic carbohydrates. However, few cohort studies have been conducted to investigate the associations of replacing SFA and SFA-rich foods with different macronutrients and foods on more severe stages of liver disease; non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

OBJECTIVES

To investigate associations between the substitution of SFA and SFA-rich foods with other macronutrients and foods and NAFLD cirrhosis and HCC in a middle-aged to elderly Swedish population of n=77 059 males and females.

METHODS

Time-to-event analyses were performed to investigate associations between the food and macronutrient substitutions and NAFLD cirrhosis and HCC. Multivariable Cox regression models were constructed to estimate hazard ratios (HR) with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI). Statistical isocaloric and equal-mass substitutions were performed using the leave-one-out method. Prespecified nutrient and food substitutions of interest were: SFA with carbohydrates, SFA with fiber, SFA with PUFA, butter with margarine and vegetable oils, unprocessed red meat with fish, and milk with fermented milk.

RESULTS

Over a median follow-up of 24 years, 566 cases of NAFLD cirrhosis and 205 cases of HCC were registered. Overall, dietary substitutions showed no clear associations with neither NAFLD cirrhosis nor HCC. Substituting SFA with carbohydrates showed a HR of 0.87 (95% CI: 0.74-1.02)) for HCC and 1.00 (95% CI: 0.89-1.11) for NAFLD cirrhosis. Substituting milk with fermented milk showed a HR of 0.93 (95% CI: 0.85-1.01) for HCC and 0.97 (95% CI: 0.92-1.03) for NAFLD cirrhosis.

CONCLUSION

No clear associations were observed between diet and NAFLD cirrhosis nor HCC. Although accompanied by low precision, possible lowered risks of HCC by substituting SFA with carbohydrates or milk with fermented milk might be of interest, but needs replication in other cohorts.

Association of statins with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease in patients with diabetes

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the most common cause of chronic liver disease in patients with diabetes; limited data suggested that statins may reduce the risk of NAFLD progression. This study aimed to examine the association between statins and the development or progression of NAFLD in veterans with diabetes. In a new-user negative control design, we conducted a retrospective propensity score (PS)-matched cohort study of patients with diabetes between 2003 and 2015. After excluding patients with other causes of liver disease, we formed PS using 85 characteristics. The primary outcome was a composite NAFLD progression outcome. Primary analysis examined odds of outcome in PS-matched cohort. Post-hoc analysis included a PS-matched cohort of statin users with intensive lowering of low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C) vs low-intensity lowering. We matched 34,102 pairs from 300,739 statin users and 38,038 non-users. The composite outcome occurred in 8.8% of statin users and 8.6% of non-users (odds ratio (OR) 1.02, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.97-1.08). In the post-hoc analysis, intensive lowering of LDL-C compared to low-intensity showed increased NAFLD progression (OR 1.21, 95% CI 1.13-1.30). This study showed that statin use in patients with diabetes was not associated with decreased or increased risk of NAFLD progression. Intensive LDL-C lowering, compared to low-intensity LDL-C lowering, was associated with an increased risk of NAFLD progression.

Intake of the different types of dairy products, genetic predisposition, and the risks of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease and cirrhosis: a prospective cohort study

Background: The association of dairy product consumption with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and cirrhosis remains controversial. This study aimed to prospectively investigate the associations between the consumption of the different types of dairy products, genetic predisposition, and the risks of NAFLD and cirrhosis. Methods: This cohort study included 190 145 participants from the UK Biobank Study. The consumption of the different types of dairy products was assessed based on the Oxford WebQ at baseline and defined as the sum of milk, yogurt, and cheese. NAFLD and cirrhosis were evaluated using hospital inpatient records and death data in the UK Biobank. The weighted genetic risk score (GRS) for NAFLD and cirrhosis was constructed using 5 and 6 single-nucleotide variants (SNVs), respectively. Cox proportional hazards regression models were utilized to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between genetic factors and different types of dairy products with the incidence of NAFLD and cirrhosis. Results: During a median follow-up of 11.6 years, 1512 NAFLD and 556 cirrhosis cases were ascertained. After adjusting for several potential confounders, the HRs (95% CIs) (Q4 vs. Q1) of NAFLD were 0.86 (0.74, 0.995) for total dairy products, 0.96 (0.84, 1.09) for high-fat dairy products, 0.78 (0.67, 0.92) for low-fat dairy products, 0.86 (0.74, 0.99) for unfermented dairy products, and 0.79 (0.68, 0.91) for fermented dairy products. The multivariable-adjusted HRs (95% CIs) (Q4 vs. Q1) of cirrhosis were 0.75 (0.59, 0.96) for total dairy products, 0.97 (0.78, 1.19) for high-fat dairy products, 0.67 (0.51, 0.89) for low-fat dairy products, 0.75 (0.59, 0.96) for unfermented dairy products, and 0.71 (0.56, 0.90) for fermented dairy products. The associations of high-fat dairy products and fermented dairy products with NAFLD and cirrhosis were found to be nonlinear (P for nonlinear <0.05). No interaction was observed between dairy product consumption and NAFLD or cirrhosis genetic susceptibility. Conclusions: Higher consumption of dairy products, except for high-fat dairy, was correlated with lower risks of NAFLD and cirrhosis, regardless of their differences in genetic susceptibility.

Where you live matters: Area deprivation predicts poor survival and liver transplant waitlisting

Social determinants of health (SDOH) are important predictors of poor clinical outcomes in chronic diseases, but their associations among the general cirrhosis population and liver transplantation (LT) are limited. We conducted a retrospective, multiinstitutional analysis of adult (≥18-years-old) patients with cirrhosis in metropolitan Chicago to determine the associations of poor neighborhood-level SDOH on decompensation complications, mortality, and LT waitlisting. Area deprivation index and covariates extracted from the American Census Survey were aspects of SDOH that were investigated. Among 15 101 patients with cirrhosis, the mean age was 57.2 years; 6414 (42.5%) were women, 6589 (43.6%) were non-Hispanic White, 3652 (24.2%) were non-Hispanic Black, and 2662 (17.6%) were Hispanic. Each quintile increase in area deprivation was associated with poor outcomes in decompensation (sHR [subdistribution hazard ratio] 1.07; 95% CI 1.05-1.10; P < .001), waitlisting (sHR 0.72; 95% CI 0.67-0.76; P < .001), and all-cause mortality (sHR 1.09; 95% CI 1.06-1.12; P < .001). Domains of SDOH associated with a lower likelihood of waitlisting and survival included low income, low education, poor household conditions, and social support (P < .001). Overall, patients with cirrhosis residing in poor neighborhood-level SDOH had higher decompensation, and mortality, and were less likely to be waitlisted for LT. Further exploration of structural barriers toward LT or optimizing health outcomes is warranted.

Association of sex hormones with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: An observational and Mendelian randomization study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Sex-specific associations of sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) and bioavailable testosterone (BAT) with NAFLD remain indeterminate. We aimed to explore observational and genetically determined relationships between each hormone and NAFLD.

METHODS

We included 187 395 men and 170 193 women from the UK Biobank. Linear and nonlinear Cox regression models and Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis were used to test the associations.

RESULTS

During 12.49 years of follow-up, 2209 male and 1886 female NAFLD cases were documented. Elevated SHBG levels were linearly associated with a lower risk of NAFLD in women (HR (95% CI), .71 (.63, .79)), but not in men (a "U" shape, pnon-linear < .001). Higher BAT levels were associated with a lower NAFLD risk in men (HR (95% CI), .81 (.71, .93)) but a higher risk in women (HR (95% CI): 1.25 (1.15, 1.36)). Genetically determined SHBG and BAT levels were linearly associated with NAFLD risk in women (OR (95% CI): .57 (.38, .87) and 2.21 (1.41, 3.26) respectively); in men, an "L-shaped" MR association between SHBG levels and NAFLD risk was found (pnon-linear = .016). The bidirectional MR analysis further revealed the effect of NAFLD on SHBG and BAT levels in both sexes.

CONCLUSIONS

Consistently, linear associations of lower SHBG and higher BAT levels with increased NAFLD risk were both conventionally and genetically found in women, while in men, SHBG acts in a nonlinear manner. In addition, NAFLD may affect SHBG and BAT levels.

Serum ferritin level is associated with liver fibrosis and incident liver-related outcomes independent of HFE genotype in the general population

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Hyperferritinemia reflects iron accumulation in the body and has been associated with metabolic disturbances and alcohol use, and is also a common finding in individuals diagnosed with liver disease. The major genetic regulator of iron metabolism is the HFE gene.

METHODS

The aim of this this study was to investigate the association between serum ferritin and liver fibrosis using the enhanced liver fibrosis (ELF) test, and the association between ferritin and liver-related outcomes in a Finnish population-based cohort of 6194 individuals (45% male, mean [± standard deviation] age, 52.9 ± 14.9 years; body mass index 26.9 ± 4.7 kg/m2). The effects of HFE variants on these associations were also evaluated.

RESULTS

Serum ferritin levels were significantly associated with liver fibrosis, as estimated by enhanced liver fibrosis (ELF) test in weighted linear regression analysis. Serum ferritin was significantly associated with both all liver-related outcomes (n = 92) and severe liver-related outcomes (n = 54) in weighted Cox regression analysis (hazard ratio [HR] per 1 SD, 1.11 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02-1.21]; p = 0.012 and HR 1.11 [95% CI 1.02-1.21]; p = 0.013, respectively). However, there was association neither between HFE risk variants and ELF test nor between HFE risk variants and liver-related outcomes.

CONCLUSION

Serum ferritin levels were associated with liver fibrosis and incident liver disease, independent of HFE genotype in the general population. Furthermore, data demonstrated that metabolic disturbances and alcohol use were major risk factors for hyperferritinemia.

High prevalence of diabetes among young First Nations Peoples with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease: a population-based study in Australia

BACKGROUND

Liver disease is an important contributor to the mortality gap between First Nations Peoples and non-Indigenous Australian adults. Despite a high burden of metabolic comorbidities among First Nations Peoples, data about the epidemiology of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) in this population is scarce.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of all adults hospitalized with MASLD or metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) with/without cirrhosis during 2007-2019 in the state of Queensland was performed. Patients were followed from the first admission with MASLD/MASH (identified based on validated algorithms) to decompensated cirrhosis and overall mortality. We explored differences according to Indigenous status using Multivariable Cox regression.

FINDINGS

439 First Nations Peoples and 7,547 non-Indigenous Australians were followed for a median of 4.6 years (interquartile range 2.7-7.2). Overall, women were overrepresented, but more so in the First Nations cohort (72.7% vs. 57.0%, p < 0.001). First Nations patients were younger, a higher proportion lived in remote and socioeconomic disadvantaged areas, and had higher comorbidity compared to non-Indigenous Australians (all p < 0.001). Diabetes, the most common comorbidity affecting both groups, was overrepresented in First Nations Peoples versus non-Indigenous Australians (43.5% vs. 30.8%, p < 0.001, respectively). Nineteen (4.3%) First Nations Peoples and 332 (4.4%) of non-Indigenous patients progressed to cirrhosis decompensation (9.0% [95%CI 4.5-17.7] vs. 7.7% [95%CI 6.6-8.9; p = 0.956] respectively within 10 years). In multivariable analysis, there was no association between Indigenous status and progression to decompensated cirrhosis (p = 0.759) and survival (p = 0.437).

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides the first population-based epidemiological data on MASLD in First Nations Australians. The high prevalence of diabetes (that is associated with advanced fibrosis and liver disease mortality) among young First Nations Peoples with MASLD raises concern about future risk of progressive liver disease in this patient population. These data highlight the importance of early identification of MASLD, and providing culturally appropriate intervention to reduce disease progression in parallel with the management of cardiometabolic comorbidities.

Rise in First-Time ERCP For Benign Indications >1 Year After Cholecystectomy Is Associated With Worse Outcomes

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Greater availability of less invasive biliary imaging to rule out choledocholithiasis should reduce the need for diagnostic endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) in patients who have a remote history of cholecystectomy. The primary aims were to determine the incidence, characteristics, and outcomes of individuals who undergo first-time ERCP >1 year after cholecystectomy (late-ERCP).

METHODS

Data from a commercial insurance claim database (Optum Clinformatics) identified 583,712 adults who underwent cholecystectomy, 4274 of whom underwent late-ERCP, defined as first-time ERCP for nonmalignant indications >1 year after cholecystectomy. Outcomes were exposure and temporal trends in late-ERCP, biliary imaging utilization, and post-ERCP outcomes. Multivariable logistic regression was used to examine patient characteristics associated with undergoing late-ERCP.

RESULTS

Despite a temporal increase in the use of noninvasive biliary imaging (35.9% in 2004 to 65.6% in 2021; P < .001), the rate of late-ERCP increased 8-fold (0.5-4.2/1000 person-years from 2005 to 2021; P < .001). Although only 44% of patients who underwent late-ERCP had gallstone removal, there were high rates of post-ERCP pancreatitis (7.1%), hospitalization (13.1%), and new chronic opioid use (9.7%). Factors associated with late-ERCP included concomitant disorder of gut-brain interaction (odds ratio [OR], 6.48; 95% confidence interval [CI], 5.88-6.91) and metabolic dysfunction steatotic liver disease (OR, 3.27; 95% CI, 2.79-3.55) along with use of anxiolytic (OR, 3.45; 95% CI, 3.19-3.58), antispasmodic (OR, 1.60; 95% CI, 1.53-1.72), and chronic opioids (OR, 6.24; 95% CI, 5.79-6.52).

CONCLUSIONS

The rate of late-ERCP postcholecystectomy is increasing significantly, particularly in patients with comorbidities associated with disorder of gut-brain interaction and mimickers of choledocholithiasis. Late-ERCPs are associated with disproportionately higher rates of adverse events, including initiation of chronic opioid use.

A natural language processing algorithm accurately classifies steatotic liver disease pathology to estimate the risk of cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Histopathology remains the gold standard for diagnosing and staging metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD). The feasibility of studying MASLD progression in electronic medical records based on histological features is limited by the free-text nature of pathology reports. Here we introduce a natural language processing (NLP) algorithm to automatically score MASLD histology features.

METHODS

From the Mass General Brigham health care system electronic medical record, we identified all patients (1987-2021) with steatosis on index liver biopsy after excluding excess alcohol use and other etiologies of liver disease. An NLP algorithm was constructed in Python to detect steatosis, lobular inflammation, ballooning, and fibrosis stage from pathology free-text and manually validated in >1200 pathology reports. Patients were followed from the index biopsy to incident decompensated liver disease accounting for covariates.

RESULTS

The NLP algorithm demonstrated positive and negative predictive values from 93.5% to 100% for all histologic concepts. Among 3134 patients with biopsy-confirmed MASLD followed for 20,604 person-years, rates of the composite endpoint increased monotonically with worsening index fibrosis stage (p for linear trend <0.005). Compared to simple steatosis (incidence rate, 15.06/1000 person-years), the multivariable-adjusted HRs for cirrhosis were 1.04 (0.72-1.5) for metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH)/F0, 1.19 (0.92-1.54) for MASH/F1, 1.89 (1.41-2.52) for MASH/F2, and 4.21 (3.26-5.43) for MASH/F3.

CONCLUSIONS

The NLP algorithm accurately scores histological features of MASLD from pathology free-text. This algorithm enabled the construction of a large and high-quality MASLD cohort across a multihospital health care system and disclosed an accelerating risk for cirrhosis based on the index MASLD fibrosis stage.

Sex and racial disparities in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease-related cardiovascular events: National inpatient sample analysis (2019)

BACKGROUND

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) increases cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk irrespective of other risk factors. However, large-scale cardiovascular sex and race differences are poorly understood.

AIM

To investigate the relationship between NAFLD and major cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) in subgroups using a nationally representative United States inpatient sample.

METHODS

We examined National Inpatient Sample (2019) to identify adult hospitalizations with NAFLD by age, sex, and race using ICD-10-CM codes. Clinical and demographic characteristics, comorbidities, and MACCE-related mortality, acute myocardial infarction (AMI), cardiac arrest, and stroke were compared in NAFLD cohorts by sex and race. Multivariable regression analyses were adjusted for sociodemographic characteristics, hospitalization features, and comorbidities.

RESULTS

We examined 409130 hospitalizations [median 55 (IQR 43-66) years] with NFALD. NAFLD was more common in females (1.2%), Hispanics (2%), and Native Americans (1.9%) than whites. Females often reported non-elective admissions, Medicare enrolment, the median age of 55 (IQR 42-67), and poor income. Females had higher obesity and uncomplicated diabetes but lower hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and complicated diabetes than males. Hispanics had a median age of 48 (IQR 37-60), were Medicaid enrollees, and had non-elective admissions. Hispanics had greater diabetes and obesity rates than whites but lower hypertension and hyperlipidemia. MACCE, all-cause mortality, AMI, cardiac arrest, and stroke were all greater in elderly individuals (P < 0.001). MACCE, AMI, and cardiac arrest were more common in men (P < 0.001). Native Americans (aOR 1.64) and Asian Pacific Islanders (aOR 1.18) had higher all-cause death risks than whites.

CONCLUSION

Increasing age and male sex link NAFLD with adverse MACCE outcomes; Native Americans and Asian Pacific Islanders face higher mortality, highlighting a need for tailored interventions and care.

A risk prediction model for hepatocellular carcinoma in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease without cirrhosis: HCC prediction for non-cirrhotic NAFLD

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Although non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is becoming a leading cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), HCC risk in non-cirrhotic NAFLD received little attention. We aimed to develop and validate an HCC risk prediction model for non-cirrhotic NAFLD.

METHODS

A nationwide cohort of non-cirrhotic NAFLD patients in Korea was recruited to develop a risk prediction model and validate it internally (n = 409 088). A model using a simplified point system was developed by Cox proportional hazard model. K-fold cross-validation assessed the accuracy, discrimination and calibration. The model was validated externally using a hospital cohort from Asan Medical Center (n = 8721).

RESULTS

An 11-point HCC risk prediction model for non-cirrhotic NAFLD was developed using six independent factors of age, sex, diabetes, obesity, serum alanine aminotransferase level and gamma-glutamyl transferase level (c-index 0.75). The average area under receiver operating curves (AUROCs) of the model was 0.72 at 5 years and 0.75 at 10 years. In the external validation cohort, the AUROCs were 0.79 [95% confidence interval [CI], 0.59-0.95] at 5 years and 0.84 (95% CI, 0.73-0.94) at 10 years. The calibration plots showed the expected risks corresponded well with the observed risks. Risk stratification categorized patients into the low (score 0-6), moderate (7, 8) and high (9-11; estimated incidence rate >0.2%/year) risk groups.

CONCLUSIONS

A novel HCC risk prediction model for non-cirrhotic NAFLD patients was developed and validated with fair performance. The model is expected to serve as a simple and reliable tool to assess HCC risk and assist precision screening of HCC.

Association of five diet scores with severe NAFLD incidence: A prospective study from UK Biobank

AIM

This study aimed to contrast the associations of five common diet scores with severe non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) incidence.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

In total, 162 999 UK Biobank participants were included in this prospective population-based study. Five international diet scores were included: the 14-Item Mediterranean Diet Adherence Screener (MEDAS-14), the Recommended Food Score (RFS), the Healthy Diet Indicator (HDI), the Mediterranean Diet Score and the Mediterranean-DASH Intervention for Neurodegenerative Delay score. As each score has different measurements and scales, all scores were standardized and categorized into quartiles. Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for confounder factors investigated associations between the standardized quartiles and severe NAFLD incidence.

RESULTS

Over a median follow-up of 10.2 years, 1370 participants were diagnosed with severe NAFLD. When the analyses were fully adjusted, participants in quartile 4 using the MEDAS-14 and RFS scores, as well as those in quartiles 2 and 3 using the HDI score, had a significantly lower risk of severe incident NAFLD compared with those in quartile 1. The lowest risk was observed in quartile 4 for the MEDAS-14 score [hazard ratio (HR): 0.76 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.62-0.94)] and the RFS score [HR: 0.82 (95% CI: 0.69-0.96)] and as well as in quartile 2 in the HDI score [HR: 0.80 (95% CI: 0.70-0.91)].

CONCLUSION

MEDAS-14, RFS and HDI scores were the strongest diet score predictors of severe NAFLD. A healthy diet might protect against NAFLD development irrespective of the specific approach used to assess diet. However, following these score recommendations could represent optimal dietary approaches to mitigate NAFLD risk.

Increasing prevalence of cirrhosis among insured adults in the United States, 2012-2018

BACKGROUND

Liver cirrhosis is a chronic disease that is known as a "silent killer" and its true prevalence is difficult to describe. It is imperative to accurately characterize the prevalence of cirrhosis because of its increasing healthcare burden.

METHODS

In this retrospective cohort study, trends in cirrhosis prevalence were evaluated using administrative data from one of the largest national health insurance providers in the US. (2011-2018). Enrolled adult (≥18-years-old) patients with cirrhosis defined by ICD-9 and ICD-10 were included in the study. The primary outcome measured in the study was the prevalence of cirrhosis 2011-2018.

RESULTS

Among the 371,482 patients with cirrhosis, the mean age was 62.2 (±13.7) years; 53.3% had commercial insurance and 46.4% had Medicare Advantage. The most frequent cirrhosis etiologies were alcohol-related (26.0%), NASH (20.9%) and HCV (20.0%). Mean time of follow-up was 725 (±732.3) days. The observed cirrhosis prevalence was 0.71% in 2018, a 2-fold increase from 2012 (0.34%). The highest prevalence observed was among patients with Medicare Advantage insurance (1.67%) in 2018. Prevalence increased in each US. state, with Southern states having the most rapid rise (2.3-fold). The most significant increases were observed in patients with NASH (3.9-fold) and alcohol-related (2-fold) cirrhosis.

CONCLUSION

Between 2012-2018, the prevalence of liver cirrhosis doubled among insured patients. Alcohol-related and NASH cirrhosis were the most significant contributors to this increase. Patients living in the South, and those insured by Medicare Advantage also have disproportionately higher prevalence of cirrhosis. Public health interventions are important to mitigate this concerning trajectory of strain to the health system.

The sulfur microbial diet and risk of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease: a prospective gene-diet study from the UK Biobank

BACKGROUND

The gut microbiota is closely related to liver diseases. The dietary pattern associated with sulfur-metabolizing bacteria in stool has been found to influence intestinal health.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to investigate whether consuming the sulfur microbial diet is associated with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD).

METHODS

We included 143,918 participants of European descent from the UK Biobank. Information on serving sizes used per diet component was recorded by an online 24-h dietary assessment tool (Oxford WebQ). The total sulfur microbial diet score was constructed by summing the product of β-coefficients and corresponding serving sizes. NAFLD was ascertained using hospital inpatient and death records. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). Mediation analyses were used to investigate underlying mediators including body mass index, waist circumference, glucose, triglyceride, urate, and C-reactive protein. A polygenic risk score for NAFLD was constructed and stratified to assess whether the association is modified by genetic predisposition.

RESULTS

After a median follow-up of 11.7 y (interquartile range: 11.3-12.5 y), we documented 1540 incident cases of NAFLD. After adjustment for covariates, we observed an overall J-shaped relationship between the sulfur microbial diet and risk of NAFLD. Those in the highest quartile of sulfur microbial diet score had a 46% increased risk of NAFLD [HRQ4vsQ1 (95% CI): 1.46 (1.26, 1.69)]. We also found that this association is partly mediated by metabolic disorders and systemic inflammation. In addition, the positive association was stronger among individuals at higher genetic risk for NAFLD (Pinteraction = 0.044).

CONCLUSIONS

The sulfur microbial diet had adverse associations with incident NAFLD, particularly in those at a higher genetic risk. Our study may provide evidence on the role of sulfur-metabolizing bacteria in the diet-NAFLD association.

The future of International Classification of Diseases coding in steatotic liver disease: An expert panel Delphi consensus statement

BACKGROUND

Following the adoption of new nomenclature for steatotic liver disease, we aimed to build consensus on the use of International Classification of Diseases codes and recommendations for future research and advocacy.

METHODS

Through a two-stage Delphi process, a core group (n = 20) reviewed draft statements and recommendations (n = 6), indicating levels of agreement. Following revisions, this process was repeated with a large expert panel (n = 243) from 73 countries.

RESULTS

Consensus ranged from 88.8% to 96.9% (mean = 92.3%).

CONCLUSIONS

This global consensus statement provides guidance on harmonizing the International Classification of Diseases coding for steatotic liver disease and future directions to advance the field.

Long-term major adverse liver outcomes in 1,260 patients with non-cirrhotic NAFLD

Background & Aims

Long-term studies of the prognosis of NAFLD are scarce. Here, we investigated the risk of major adverse liver outcomes (MALO) in a large cohort of patients with NAFLD.

Methods

We conducted a cohort study with data from Swedish university hospitals. Patients (n = 1,260) with NAFLD without cirrhosis were diagnosed through biopsy or radiology, and had fibrosis estimated through vibration-controlled transient elastography, biopsy, or FIB-4 score between 1974 and 2020 and followed up through 2020. Each patient was matched on age, sex, and municipality with up to 10 reference individuals from the general population (n = 12,529). MALO were ascertained from Swedish national registers. The rate of events was estimated by Cox regression.

Results

MALO occurred in 111 (8.8%, incidence rate = 5.9/1,000 person-years) patients with NAFLD and 197 (1.6%, incidence rate = 1.0/1,000 person-years) reference individuals during a median follow up of 13 years. The rate of MALO was higher in patients with NAFLD (hazard ratio = 6.6; 95% CI = 5.2-8.5). The risk of MALO was highly associated with the stage of fibrosis at diagnosis. In the biopsy subcohort (72% of total sample), there was no difference in risk between patients with and without non-alcoholic steatohepatitis. The 20-year cumulative incidences of MALO were 2% for the reference population, 3% for patients with F0, and 35% for F3. Prognostic information from biopsy was comparable to FIB-4 (C-indices around 0.73 vs. 0.72 at 10 years).

Conclusions

This study provides updated information on the natural history of NAFLD, showing a high rate of progression to cirrhosis in F3 and a similar prognostic capacity of non-invasive tests to liver biopsy.

Impact and implications

Several implications for clinical care and future research may be noted based on these results. First, the risk estimates for cirrhosis development are important when communicating risk to patients and deciding on clinical monitoring and treatment. Estimates can also be used in updated health-economic evaluations, and for regulatory agencies. Second, our results again highlight the low predictive information obtained from ascertaining NASHstatus by histology and call for more objective means by which to define NASH. Such methods may include artificial intelligence-supported digital pathology. We highlight that NASH is most likely the causal factor for fibrosis progression in NAFLD, but the subjective definition makes the prognostic value of a histological NASH diagnosis of limited value. Third, the finding that prognostic information from biopsy and the very simple Fibrosis-4 score were comparable is important as it may lead to fewer biopsies and further move the field towards non-invasive means by which to define fibrosis and, importantly, use non-invasive tests as outcomes in clinical trials. However, all modalities had modest discriminatory capacity and new risk stratification systems are needed in NAFLD. Repeated measures of non-invasive scores may be a potential solution.

NHS Health Check attendance is associated with reduced multiorgan disease risk: a matched cohort study in the UK Biobank

BACKGROUND

The NHS Health Check is a preventive programme in the UK designed to screen for cardiovascular risk and to aid in primary disease prevention. Despite its widespread implementation, the effectiveness of the NHS Health Check for longer-term disease prevention is unclear. In this study, we measured the rate of new diagnoses in UK Biobank participants who underwent the NHS Health Check compared with those who did not.

METHODS

Within the UK Biobank prospective study, 48,602 NHS Health Check recipients were identified from linked primary care records. These participants were then covariate-matched on an extensive range of socio-demographic, lifestyle, and medical factors with 48,602 participants without record of the check. Follow-up diagnoses were ascertained from health records over an average of 9 years (SD 2 years) including hypertension, diabetes, hypercholesterolaemia, stroke, dementia, myocardial infarction, atrial fibrillation, heart failure, fatty liver disease, alcoholic liver disease, liver cirrhosis, liver failure, acute kidney injury, chronic kidney disease (stage 3 +), cardiovascular mortality, and all-cause mortality. Time-varying survival modelling was used to compare adjusted outcome rates between the groups.

RESULTS

In the immediate 2 years after the NHS Health Check, higher diagnosis rates were observed for hypertension, high cholesterol, and chronic kidney disease among health check recipients compared to their matched counterparts. However, in the longer term, NHS Health Check recipients had significantly lower risk across all multiorgan disease outcomes and reduced rates of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

The NHS Health Check is linked to reduced incidence of disease across multiple organ systems, which may be attributed to risk modification through earlier detection and treatment of key risk factors such as hypertension and high cholesterol. This work adds important evidence to the growing body of research supporting the effectiveness of preventative interventions in reducing longer-term multimorbidity.

Misclassified Alcohol-related Liver Disease is Common in Presumed Metabolic Dysfunction-associated Steatotic Liver Disease and Highly Increases Risk for Future Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Alcohol overconsumption is a risk factor for disease progression in patients with presumed metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD). How commonly this occurs and how it affects progression to major adverse liver outcomes (MALOs) is not well known.

METHODS

We did a register-based cohort study, including all patients with a diagnosis of MASLD in Sweden between 1987 and 2020. Patients were stratified on co-occurrence of diagnoses of alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) or alcohol use disorder (AUD) prior to MASLD diagnosis. Incident MALOs were derived from national registers. Cox regression was used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) for incident MALO.

RESULTS

A total of 15,107 patients with MASLD were identified. The median age was 55 years, and 52% were female. Of the patients, 1843 (12%) had a prior diagnosis of ALD or AUD. During follow-up, a further 787 patients (5.2%) received a diagnosis of ALD or AUD. Patients with previous ALD or AUD diagnoses at or before baseline had considerably higher rates of MALOs compared with patients without (19.5% vs 7.8%; adjusted HR, 3.12; 95% confidence interval, 2.74-3.55). Acquiring an ALD or AUD diagnosis after MASLD diagnosis was associated with higher rates of MALOs (adjusted HR, 5.81; 95% confidence interval, 4.90-6.88).

CONCLUSIONS

ALD or AUD is commonly diagnosed prior to or after MASLD diagnosis. Such patients have considerably higher rates of progression to MALOs. Correctly separating between MASLD and ALD is vital to assess prognosis.

Hospital frailty risk score is superior to legacy comorbidity indices for risk adjustment of in-hospital cirrhosis cases

Background & Aims

The hospital frailty risk score (HFRS) identifies older patients at risk of poor outcomes and may have value in cirrhosis. We compared the Charlson (CCI), Elixhauser (ECI), and cirrhosis (CirCom) comorbidity indices with the HFRS in predicting outcomes for cirrhosis hospitalisations.

Methods

Using the National Inpatient Sample (quarter 4 of 2015-2019), we analysed cirrhosis hospitalisations. For each index, we described the prevalence of comorbid conditions and inpatient mortality. We compared the ability of CCI, ECI, CirCom, and HFRS to predict inpatient mortality. Raw and adjusted models predicting inpatient mortality were compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and the Akaike information criterion.

Results

The cohort's (N = 626,553) median age was 61 years (IQR 52-68 years), 60% were male, cirrhosis was caused by alcohol in 43%, and 38% had ascites. The median comorbidity scores are as follows: ECI 4 (IQR 3-6), CCI 5 (IQR 4-8), and HFRS 5.6 (IQR 3.0-8.6). The most common CirCom score was 0 + 0 (44%). Across the range of values of each index, we observed different mortality ranges: CCI 1.9-13.1%, ECI 3.2-8.7%, CirCom 4.9-13.8%, and HFRS 1.0-15.2%. An adjusted model with HFRS had the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve in predicting mortality (HFRS 0.782 vs. ECI 0.689, CCI 0.695, and CirCom 0.692). We observed substantial variation in mortality with HFRS within each level of CCI, ECI, and CirCom. For example, for ECI 4, mortality increased from 0.6 to 16.4%, as HFRS increased from 0 to 15.

Conclusions

Comorbidity indices predict inpatient cirrhosis mortality, but HFRS performs better than CCI, ECI, and CirCom. HFRS is an ideal tool for measuring comorbidity burden and disease severity risk adjustment in cirrhosis-related administrative database studies.

Impact and Implications

We compared commonly used comorbidity indices to a more recently described risk score (hospital frailty risk score [HFRS]) in patients with cirrhosis using a national sample of hospital records. Comorbid conditions are common in hospitalised patients with cirrhosis. There is significant variability in mortality across the range of each index. HFRS outperforms the Charlson comorbidity index, Elixhauser comorbidity index, and CirCom (cirrhosis-specific comorbidity scoring system) in predicting inpatient mortality. HFRS is a valuable index for risk adjustment in inpatient administrative database studies.

Venous thromboembolism, chronic liver disease and anticoagulant choice: effectiveness and safety of direct oral anticoagulants versus warfarin

Background

Little to no data exist to guide treatment decision in patients with venous thromboembolism (VTE) and chronic liver disease.

Objectives

To assess the effectiveness and safety of direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs)-individually and as a class-vs warfarin and between 2 DOACs in patients with acute VTE and chronic liver disease.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective, US claims-based, propensity score-matched cohort study in adults with acute VTE and chronic liver disease who had newly initiated oral anticoagulants between 2011 and 2017. The primary outcome was a composite of hospitalization for recurrent VTE and hospitalization for major bleeding.

Results

The cohorts included 2361 DOAC-warfarin, 895 apixaban-warfarin, 2161 rivaroxaban-warfarin, and 895 apixaban-rivaroxaban matched pairs. Lower risk of the primary outcome was seen with DOACs (hazard ratio [HR], 0.72; 95% CI, 0.61-0.85), apixaban (HR, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.35-0.66) or rivaroxaban (HR, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.61-0.88) vs warfarin but not apixaban-rivaroxaban (HR, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.43-1.08). The HRs of hospitalization for major bleeding were 0.69 (95% CI, 0.57-0.84) for DOAC-warfarin, 0.43 (95% CI, 0.30-0.63) for apixaban-warfarin, 0.72 (95% CI, 0.58-0.89) for rivaroxaban-warfarin, and 0.60 (95% CI, 0.35-1.06) for apixaban-rivaroxaban. Recurrent VTE risk was lower with apixaban (HR, 0.47; 95% CI, 0.26-0.86), but not DOACs (HR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.59-1.12) or rivaroxaban vs warfarin (HR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.57-1.14) or apixaban-rivaroxaban (HR, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.42-2.02).

Conclusion

While the magnitude of clinical benefit varied across individual DOACs, in adults with acute VTE and chronic liver disease, oral factor Xa inhibitors (as a class or individually) were associated with lower risk of recurrent VTE and major bleeding.

Risk of Severe Infection in Patients With Biopsy-proven Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease - A Population-based Cohort Study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

It has been suggested that patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) might be at increased risk of severe infections, but large-scale data from cohorts with biopsy-proven NAFLD are lacking.

METHODS

Population-based cohort study including all Swedish adults with histologically confirmed NAFLD (n = 12,133) from 1969 to 2017. NAFLD was defined as simple steatosis (n = 8232), nonfibrotic steatohepatitis (n = 1378), noncirrhotic fibrosis (n = 1845), and cirrhosis (n = 678). Patients were matched to ≤5 population comparators (n = 57,516) by age, sex, calendar year, and county. Swedish national registers were used to ascertain incident severe infections requiring hospital admission. Multivariable adjusted Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios in NAFLD and histopathological subgroups.

RESULTS

Over a median of 14.1 years, 4517 (37.2%) patients with NAFLD vs 15,075 (26.2%) comparators were hospitalized for severe infections. Patients with NAFLD had higher incidence of severe infections than comparators (32.3 vs. 17.0/1000 person-years; adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.71; 95% confidence interval, 1.63-1.79). The most frequent infections were respiratory (13.8/1000 person-years) and urinary tract infections (11.4/1000 person-years). The absolute risk difference at 20 years after NAFLD diagnosis was 17.3%, equal to one extra severe infection in every 6 patients with NAFLD. Risk of infection increased with worsening histological severity of NAFLD (simple steatosis [aHR, 1.64], nonfibrotic steatohepatitis [aHR, 1.84], noncirrhotic fibrosis [aHR, 1.77], and cirrhosis [aHR, 2.32]. Also compared with their full siblings, patients with NAFLD were at increased risk of severe infections (aHR, 1.54; 95% confidence interval, 1.40-1.70).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD were at significantly higher risk of incident severe infection requiring hospitalization both compared with the general population and compared with siblings. Excess risk was evident across all stages of NAFLD and increased with worsening disease severity.

Familial coaggregation of MASLD with hepatocellular carcinoma and adverse liver outcomes: Nationwide multigenerational cohort study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD; formerly NAFLD) is the fastest growing cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) worldwide. However, whether family members of individuals with MASLD also share an increased risk of developing HCC is unknown.

METHODS

This nationwide multigenerational cohort study involved family members of all Swedish adults diagnosed with biopsy-proven MASLD (1969-2017), and matched general population comparators. Using the Swedish Multi-generation Register, we identified 38,018 first-degree relatives (FDRs: parents, siblings, offspring) and 9,381 spouses of patients with MASLD, as well as 197,303 comparator FDRs and 47,572 comparator spouses. We used Cox proportional hazards models to calculate adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) for HCC, major adverse liver outcomes (cirrhosis, decompensated liver disease or liver transplantation), liver-related mortality, extrahepatic cancer, and non-liver-related mortality.

RESULTS

Over a median of 17.6 years, the rate of the primary outcome HCC was higher in MASLD FDRs vs. comparator FDRs (13 vs. 8/100,000 person-years [PY]; aHR 1.80, 95% CI 1.36-2.37). The HCC risk was further increased in FDRs of individuals with liver fibrosis/cirrhosis (aHR 2.14, 95% CI 1.07-4.27; PHeterogeneity = 0.03). MASLD FDRs also had higher rates of major adverse liver outcomes (73 vs. 51/100,000 PY; aHR 1.52, 95% CI 1.36-1.69) and liver-related mortality (20 vs. 11/100,000 PY; aHR 2.14, 95% CI 1.67-2.74). MASLD FDRs with any concomitant chronic liver condition experienced accelerated progression of liver disease (aHR 1.47, 95% CI 1.29-1.67). MASLD spouses were at higher risks of major adverse liver outcomes (86 vs. 74/100,000 PY; aHR 1.23, 95% CI 1.01-1.51) and liver-related mortality (25 vs. 19/100,000 PY; aHR 1.93, 95% CI 1.15-3.23), but not of HCC (aHR 1.43, 95% CI 0.87-2.35).

CONCLUSIONS

There is distinct familial clustering of adverse liver-related outcomes in families of individuals with biopsy-proven MASLD, with higher relative risks of HCC, progressive liver disease, and liver-related mortality, but absolute risks are low.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD; formerly termed NAFLD) clusters in families with high genetic susceptibility and shared environmental risk factors, but the risks of developing hepatocellular carcinoma and other major liver-related outcomes in family members of individuals with MASLD are largely unknown. This large nationwide multigenerational cohort study involving family members (first-degree relatives and spouses) of individuals with biopsy-proven MASLD and of matched general population comparators found slightly increased risks of hepatocellular carcinoma in first-degree relatives, and of developing cirrhosis and liver-related mortality in all family members of individuals with biopsy-proven MASLD. The findings of this study provide large-scale evidence to inform clinical practice guidelines for recommendations on the early identification of individuals at higher risk of liver-related morbidity and mortality.

Duration of type 2 diabetes and liver-related events in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease: A landmark analysis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

We aimed to determine the impact of the duration of type 2 diabetes (T2D) on the risk of liver-related events and all-cause mortality in patients with NAFLD.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

We conducted a territory-wide cohort study of adult patients with NAFLD diagnosed between January 1, 2000, and July 31, 2021, in Hong Kong. T2D was defined by the use of any antidiabetic agents, laboratory tests, and/or diagnosis codes. The primary endpoint was liver-related events, defined as a composite endpoint of HCC and cirrhotic complications. To conduct a more granular assessment of the duration of T2D, we employed landmark analysis in four different ages of interest (biological age of 40, 50, 60, and 70 years). By multivariable analysis with adjustment of non-liver-related deaths, compared with patients without diabetes at age 60 (incidence rate of liver-related events: 0.70 per 1,000 person-years), the adjusted subdistribution HR (SHR) of liver-related events was 2.51 (95% CI: 1.32-4.77; incidence rate: 2.26 per 1,000 person-years) in patients with T2D duration < 5 years, 3.16 (95% CI: 1.59-6.31; incidence rate: 2.54 per 1,000 person-years) in those with T2D duration of 6-10 years, and 6.20 (95% CI: 2.62-14.65; incidence rate: 4.17 per 1000 person-years) in those with T2D duration more than 10 years. A similar association between the duration of T2D and all-cause mortality was also observed.

CONCLUSIONS

Longer duration of T2D is significantly associated with a higher risk of liver-related events and all-cause mortality in patients with NAFLD.

Exposure to Agent Orange and Hepatocellular Carcinoma Among US Military Personnel

Importance

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and its mortality are on the rise. Viral hepatitis and alcohol are leading risk factors; however, other risk factors among veterans are less defined, including Agent Orange (AO), an herbicide linked to several cancers.

Objective

To assess the association of AO exposure and HCC in a national cohort of Vietnam veterans.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This retrospective cohort study included Vietnam veterans who served between 1966 and 1975, were male, were older than 18 years at the time of deployment, and had established follow-up in the Veterans Affairs (VA) between 2000 and 2019. Veterans with AO exposure were identified in the disability data via validated clinical surveys. Relevant clinical risk factors for cirrhosis and HCC were collected. Patients were stratified based on cirrhosis status, as defined by consecutive diagnosis found by documented International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision and International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision scores or calculated Fibrosis-4 scores. Data were collected from January 1, 2019, to December 31, 2020, and analyzed from December 2020 to October 2023.

Main Outcome and Measures

Incident HCC was the primary outcome. AO and HCC association was estimated using a multivariable Cox regression analysis, with death and liver transplant as competing events.

Results

Of the 296 505 eligible veterans (222 545 [75.1%] White individuals and 44 342 [15.0%] Black individuals), 170 090 (57%) had AO exposure (mean [SD] age, 21.62 [3.49] years; 131 552 White individuals [83.2%] and 22 767 Black individuals [14.4%]) and 35 877 (12.1%) had cirrhosis. Veterans who were not exposed to AO were more likely to smoke (109 689 of 126 413 [86.8%] vs 146 061 of 170 090 [85.9%]); use alcohol (54 147 of 126 413 [42.8%] vs 71 951 of 170 090 [42.3%]) and have viral hepatitis (47 722 of 126 413 [37.8%] vs 58 942 of 170 090 [34.7%]). In a multivariable competing risk model, AO exposure was not associated with HCC. Among veterans with cirrhosis, self-identification as Hispanic individuals (aHR, 1.51; 95% CI, 1.30-1.75; P <.001) or Black individuals (aHR, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.05-1.32; P = .004), and having a diagnosis of viral hepatitis (aHR, 3.71; 95% CI, 3.26-4.24; P <.001), alcohol-associated liver disease (aHR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.19-1.46; P <.001), and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) (aHR, 1.92; 95% CI, 1.72-2.15; P <.001) were associated with HCC. Among veterans without cirrhosis, hypertension (aHR, 1.63; 95% CI, 1.23-2.15; P <.001) and diabetes (aHR, 1.52; 95% CI, 1.13-2.05; P = .005) were also associated with HCC. Early smoking and alcohol use were significant risk factors for HCC.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this large nationwide cohort study of Vietnam veterans, AO exposure was not associated with HCC. Smoking, alcohol, viral hepatitis, and NAFLD were the most important clinical risk factors for HCC.

FIB-4 as a Time-varying Covariate and Its Association With Severe Liver Disease in Primary Care: A Time-dependent Cox Regression Analysis

BACKGROUND AND GOALS

The Fibrosis-4 Index (FIB-4) has demonstrated a strong association with severe liver disease (SLD) outcomes in primary care, but previous studies have only evaluated this relationship using 1 or 2 FIB-4 scores. In this study, we determined the association of FIB-4 as a time-varying covariate with SLD risk using time-dependent Cox regression models.

STUDY

This retrospective cohort study included primary care patients with at least 2 FIB-4 scores between 2012 and 2021. The outcome was the occurrence of an SLD event, a composite of cirrhosis, complications of cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and liver transplantation. The primary predictor was FIB-4 advanced fibrosis risk, categorized as low-(<1.3), indeterminate-(1.3≤FIB to 4<2.67), and high-risk (≥2.67). FIB-4 scores were calculated and the index, last, and maximum FIB-4s were identified. Time-dependent Cox regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and their corresponding 95% CI with adjustment for potentially confounding covariates.

RESULTS

In the cohort, 20,828 patients had a median of 5 (IQR: 3 to 11) FIB-4 scores each and 3% (n=667) suffered an SLD outcome during follow-up. Maximum FIB-4 scores were indeterminate-risk for 34% (7149) and high-risk for 24% (4971) of the sample, and 32% (6692) of patients had an increase in fibrosis risk category compared with their index value. The adjusted Cox regression model demonstrated an association between indeterminate- (hazard ratio 3.21; 95% CI 2.33-4.42) and high-risk (hazard ratio 20.36; 95% CI 15.03-27.57) FIB-4 scores with SLD outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Multiple FIB-4 values per patient are accessible in primary care, FIB-4 fibrosis risk assessments change over time, and high-risk FIB-4 scores (≥2.67) are strongly associated with severe liver disease outcomes when accounting for FIB-4 as a time-varying variable.

The association between telomere length and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: a prospective study

BACKGROUND

Research on the association between telomere length (TL) and incident non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is limited. This study examined this association and further assessed how TL contributes to the association of NAFLD with its known risk factors.

METHODS

Quantitative PCR (polymerase chain reaction) was employed to assess leucocyte telomere length. Polygenic risk score (PRS) for NAFLD, air pollution score, and lifestyle index were constructed. Cox proportional hazard models were conducted to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals.

RESULTS

Among 467,848 participants in UK Biobank, we identified 4809 NAFLD cases over a median follow-up of 12.83 years. We found that long TL was associated with decreased risk of incident NAFLD, as each interquartile range increase in TL resulted in an HR of 0.93 (95% CI 0.89, 0.96). TL partly mediated the association between age and NAFLD (proportion mediated: 15.52%). When assessing the joint effects of TL and other risk factors, the highest risk of NAFLD was found in participants with low TL and old age, low TL and high air pollution score, low TL and unfavorable lifestyle, and low TL and high PRS, compared to each reference group. A positive addictive interaction was observed between high PRS and low TL, accounting for 14.57% (2.51%, 27.14%) of the risk of NAFLD in participants with low telomere length and high genetic susceptibility.

CONCLUSIONS

Long telomere length was associated with decreased risk of NAFLD incidence. Telomere length played an important role in NAFLD.

Risk of injuries before and after a diagnosis of cirrhosis: A population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Cirrhosis is often asymptomatic prior to decompensation. Still, cognitive impairment and sarcopenia may be present before decompensation, possibly increasing the risk of injuries. We estimated the risk of injuries during the period shortly before and after cirrhosis diagnosis.

METHODS

All patients (N=59,329) with a diagnosis of cirrhosis from 1997 to 2019 were identified from the Swedish National Patient Register. We used a self-controlled case series design to compare the incidence rates (IR) of injuries during a "diagnostic period" (within 3 months before or after the cirrhosis diagnosis date) to a self-controlled "prediagnostic period" (the same 6 calendar months 3 years before diagnosis), using conditional Poisson regression. Injuries were ascertained from the National Patient Register.

RESULTS

We identified 23,733 (40.0%) patients with compensated and 35,595 (60.0%) with decompensated cirrhosis. There were 975 injuries (IR 2.8/1000 person-months) during the prediagnostic period, and 3610 injuries (IR 11.6/1000 person-months) identified during the diagnostic period. The IR ratio was 8.1 (95% CI 7.5-8.7) comparing the diagnostic period with the prediagnostic period. For patients with compensated cirrhosis, the risk increment of injuries was highest just before the diagnosis of cirrhosis, whereas the risk increase was highest shortly after the diagnosis for those with decompensation.

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence of injuries increases shortly before and after the diagnosis of cirrhosis. These findings indicate that cirrhosis is frequently diagnosed in conjunction with an injury, and highlight the need for injury prevention after cirrhosis diagnosis, especially in patients with decompensation.

An integrated gene-to-outcome multimodal database for metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is the commonest cause of chronic liver disease worldwide and represents an unmet precision medicine challenge. We established a retrospective national cohort of 940 histologically defined patients (55.4% men, 44.6% women; median body mass index 31.3; 32% with type 2 diabetes) covering the complete MASLD severity spectrum, and created a secure, searchable, open resource (SteatoSITE). In 668 cases and 39 controls, we generated hepatic bulk RNA sequencing data and performed differential gene expression and pathway analysis, including exploration of gender-specific differences. A web-based gene browser was also developed. We integrated histopathological assessments, transcriptomic data and 5.67 million days of time-stamped longitudinal electronic health record data to define disease-stage-specific gene expression signatures, pathogenic hepatic cell subpopulations and master regulator networks associated with adverse outcomes in MASLD. We constructed a 15-gene transcriptional risk score to predict future hepatic decompensation events (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.86, 0.81 and 0.83 for 1-, 3- and 5-year risk, respectively). Additionally, thyroid hormone receptor beta regulon activity was identified as a critical suppressor of disease progression. SteatoSITE supports rational biomarker and drug development and facilitates precision medicine approaches for patients with MASLD.

Machine Learning Enables Single-Score Assessment of MASLD Presence and Severity

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) affects 30% of the global population but is often underdiagnosed. To fill this diagnostic gap, we developed a digital score reflecting presence and severity of MASLD. We fitted a machine learning model to electronic health records from 37,212 UK Biobank participants with proton density fat fraction measurements and/or a MASLD diagnosis to generate a "MASLD score". In holdout testing, our model achieved areas under the receiver-operating curve of 0.83-0.84 for MASLD diagnosis and 0.90-0.91 for identifying MASLD-associated advanced fibrosis. MASLD score was significantly associated with MASLD risk factors, progression to cirrhosis, and mortality. External testing in 252,725 diverse American participants demonstrated consistent results, and hepatologist chart review showed MASLD score identified probable MASLD underdiagnosis. The MASLD score could improve early diagnosis and intervention of chronic liver disease by providing a non-invasive, low-cost method for population-wide screening of MASLD.

Diabetes mellitus and the progression of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease to decompensated cirrhosis: a retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To determine the incidence of decompensated cirrhosis and associated risk factors in people hospitalised with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) or non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) with or without cirrhosis.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study; analysis of linked Queensland Hospital Admitted Patient Data Collection, Queensland Registry of Births, Deaths and Marriages, and Queensland Cancer Register data.

SETTING, PARTICIPANTS

Queensland residents aged 20 years or older admitted to Queensland hospitals with NAFLD/NASH during 1 July 2009 - 31 December 2018.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Progression to decompensated cirrhosis (ascites, hepatic encephalopathy, or oesophageal variceal bleeding).

RESULTS

We included data for 8006 patients in our analysis (10 082 admissions), including 4632 women (58%) and 2514 people with diabetes mellitus (31%); median follow-up time was 4.6 years (interquartile range, 2.7-7.2 years). Three hundred and fifty-one people (4.4%) experienced decompensated cirrhosis during the follow-up period. Of the 6900 people without cirrhosis, 4.5% (95% confidence interval [CI], 3.6-5.7%) experienced decompensated cirrhosis within ten years (mean, 0.5% per year; 95% CI, 0.4-0.6% per year); risk of progression was greater for people aged 70 years or older (v 20-39 years: adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 4.7; 95% CI, 2.0-11.0) and those who had extrahepatic cancers (aHR, 5.0; 95% CI, 3.0-8.2), history of major cardiovascular events (aHR, 1.9; 95% CI, 1.2-3.1), or diabetes mellitus (aHR, 2.8; 95% CI, 2.0-3.9). Of the 1106 people with cirrhosis, 32.4% (95% CI, 27.2-38.3%) experienced decompensated cirrhosis within ten years (mean, 5.5% per year; 95% CI, 4.8-6.3% per year); risk of progression was greater for those with portal hypertension (aHR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.3-2.7), extrahepatic cancer (aHR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.1-2.9), or diabetes mellitus (aHR, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.1-2.0). Compared with people who had neither cirrhosis nor diabetes mellitus, the risk of decompensation was greater for people with cirrhosis (aHR, 10.7; 95% CI, 7.6-15.0) or cirrhosis and diabetes mellitus (aHR, 14.4; 95% CI, 10.1-20.6).

CONCLUSIONS

Given the greater risk of progression to cirrhosis decompensation in people with diabetes mellitus, a disorder common in people with NAFLD/NASH, identifying advanced fibrosis and providing appropriate treatment for averting disease progression is vital.

Residential green and blue spaces with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease incidence: Mediating effect of air pollutants

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to investigate the relationship of residential green and blue spaces with incident nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), and explore the potential mediation effects of air pollutants and modification effect of genetic susceptibility.

METHODS

411,200 UK Biobank participants without prior liver diseases were included. Land use data were used to estimate residential green and blue spaces (land coverage percentage) at 300 m and 1000 m buffer. The study outcome was incident NAFLD, ascertained through linkage to hospital admissions and death registry records.

RESULTS

5198 NAFLD cases were documented after a median follow-up of 12.5 years. Green and blue spaces were inversely associated with the hazard of NAFLD: per standard deviation (SD) increment of green space coverage at 300 m (SD: 14.5 %; HR, 0.88, 95 %CI, 0.86-0.91) and 1000 m (SD: 14.1 %; HR, 0.88, 95 %CI, 0.86-0.91) buffer, and blue space coverage at 300 m (SD: 1.0 %; HR,0.95, 95 %CI, 0.93-0.98) and 1000 m (SD: 1.2 %; HR,0.96, 95 %CI, 0.93-0.99) buffer were related with a 4-12 % reduction of NAFLD incidence. The beneficial effects of approximately 25-52 % of green space exposure and about 5-35 % of blue space exposure on NAFLD incidence were mediated by the reduction of PM2.5, NO2 and NOx (All Pindirect effect <0.05). Moreover, genetic susceptibility of NAFLD did not modify the relationship of green and blue spaces with NAFLD incidence.

CONCLUSION

Residential green and blue spaces were inversely related to NAFLD incidence. These results suggest that green and blue spaces are modifiable factors that may help prevent NAFLD, and therefore, can be considered as a novel environmental strategy to promote liver health at the community level, rather than only at the individual level.

Critical appraisal of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease: Implication of Janus-faced modernity

The existing term non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has raised substantial concerns due to its inherent disadvantages of using exclusionary diagnostic criteria and the stigmatizing word 'fatty.' Three pan-national liver associations set out to explore a new nomenclature to replace both NAFLD and its suggested alternative, metabolic (dysfunction)-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD). They surveyed if a change in nomenclature and/or definition is favored and which nomenclature best communicates disease characteristics and increases awareness. In lieu of NAFLD/MAFLD, metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) has been chosen, and an umbrella term, steatotic liver disease (SLD), encompassing the whole spectrum of liver disease, has been proposed. It has been suggested that cardiometabolic risk factors should be considered when categorizing SLD patients. Furthermore, a new subcategory, MASLD with increased alcohol intake (MetALD), casts light on a neglected group of patients with moderate or more alcohol consumption. The importance of metabolic dysfunction was acknowledged in this new nomenclature, but the precise contribution of metabolic dysfunction and alcohol consumption to the development and progression of SLD remains unclear. Herein, we review hepatologists' and endocrinologists' perspectives on the new nomenclature, along with its possible impact on clinical practice. Although it is premature to predict the settlement of the new nomenclature, this review may help build more evidence for a soft landing of it in the future.

The NAFLD burden on mortality and morbidities in general population: A community-based longitudinal study (NASH-CO study)

BACKGROUND

The impact of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) on morbidity and mortality has yet to be documented at the general population level. This study aimed to assess whether NAFLD was associated with morbidities and mortality and to estimate its impact on health status and mortality.

METHODS

The study population consisted of 137 206 participants from Constances cohort. Non-invasive diagnosis of NAFLD and advanced fibrosis was performed using the fatty liver index and Forns index, respectively. Constances data were linked to health care and hospitalization data to identify liver-related events, cardiovascular diseases (CVD), extrahepatic cancers (EHC), chronic kidney disease (CKD) and all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

The prevalence of NAFLD was 18.3% in subjects without other chronic liver diseases, among whom 2.7% had fibrosis. NAFLD after IPTW-weighted remained associated with an increased risk of death (HR 1.26, 95% CI 1.01-1.57), hepatic-related complications (HR 2.48, 95% CI 1.99-3.29), CVD (HR 1.42, 95% CI 1.30-1.55), EHC (HR 1.11, 95% CI 1.01-1.28) and CKD (HR 1.81, 95% CI 1.53-2.07) compared to those without chronic liver diseases risk factors (Non-NAFLD). In the trend analysis over the study period of inclusion and compared to Non-NAFLD, NAFLD has shown a fastest growing cause of hepatic events (HR 1.38, 95% CI 1.07-1.76 per year), CVD (HR 1.08, 95% CI 1.03-1.12), CKD (HR 1.16, 95% CI 1.07-1.25), and death (HR 1.39, 95% CI 1.39-1.50).

CONCLUSION

This large community-based cohort showed that NAFLD was associated with excess morbidity and mortality and demonstrated a fastest-growing trend.

Risk of infections in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: A nationwide population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Previous literature suggests an association between non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and infections. We aimed to determine the rate and risk of severe infections in NAFLD compared to the general population.

METHODS

In this population-based cohort study, we used national registers to identify all patients with a hospital-based diagnosis of NAFLD in Sweden 1987-2020 (n = 14 869). The patients were matched with ≤10 comparators from the general population for age, sex, municipality, and calendar year (n = 137 145). Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) for infections in patients with NAFLD compared to comparators. Cumulative incidences were calculated while accounting for competing risks (non-infection death and liver transplantation).

RESULTS

Severe infections leading to death or hospitalization occurred in 1990 (13.4%) patients with NAFLD and 9899 (7.2%) comparators during a median of 4.5 and 6.1 years of follow-up, respectively. The rate of severe infections per 1000 person-years was higher in patients with NAFLD (21.0) than comparators (9.1) independently of components related to the metabolic syndrome (adjusted HR 1.9, 95% CI = 1.8-2.0). Infection-related mortality was also higher in NAFLD compared to comparators (adjusted HR 1.8, 95% CI = 1.6-2.2). The 10-year cumulative incidence of severe infections was 16.6% (95% CI = 15.8-17.4) in NAFLD and 8.0% (95% CI = 7.8-8.2) in comparators.

CONCLUSION

NAFLD was associated with severe infections and infection-related mortality, independently of components associated with the metabolic syndrome. Increased clinical vigilance of severe infections in NAFLD may diminish the risk of premature death.

Combined use of the ELF test and CLivD score improves prediction of liver-related outcomes in the general population

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Effective and feasible population screening strategies are needed for the early detection of individuals at high risk of future severe liver-related outcomes. We evaluated the predictive performance of the combination of liver fibrosis assessment, phenotype profile, and genetic risk.

METHODS

Data from 5795 adults attending the Finnish Health 2000 Survey were linked with healthcare registers for liver-related outcomes (hospitalization, hepatocellular cancer, and death). Fibrosis was assessed using the enhanced liver fibrosis (ELF) test, phenotype profile by the chronic liver disease (CLivD) risk score, and genetic risk by a validated Polygenic Risk Score (PRS-5). Predictive performance was assessed by competing-risk analyses.

RESULTS

During a median 13-year follow-up, 64 liver-related outcome events were recorded. ELF, CLivD score, and PRS-5 were independently associated with liver-related outcomes. The absolute 10-year risk of liver-related outcomes at an ELF value of 11.3 ranged from 0.3% to 33% depending on the CLivD score. The CLivD score added 51% of new predictive information to the ELF test and improved areas under the curve (AUCs) from 0.91, 0.81, and 0.71 for ELF alone to 0.95, 0.85, and 0.80, respectively, for ELF combined with the CLivD score at 1, 5, and 10 years. The greatest improvement was for 10-year predictions (delta-AUC 0.097, p < .0001). Adding PRS-5 did not significantly increase predictive performance. Findings were consistent in individuals with obesity, diabetes, or alcohol risk use, and regardless of whether gamma-glutamyltransferase was used in the CLivD score.

CONCLUSION

A combination of ELF and CLivD score predicts liver-related outcomes significantly better than the ELF test alone.

The incremental cost of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis and type 2 diabetes in the United States using real-world data

BACKGROUND

Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and type 2 diabetes (T2D) are both linked to substantial healthcare costs and are often co-occurring. We aim to quantify the incremental cost of NASH and T2D using real-world data.

METHODS

Adults (≥18 years old) with ≥2 diagnosis codes for NASH and/or ≥2 diagnosis codes for T2D between 1/1/2016 and 12/31/2021 and ≥24 months of continuous claims enrollment (study period) were identified in electronic health records or claims in the Veradigm Integrated Dataset. Patients were stratified into 3 cohorts: NASH-only, T2D-only, and NASH + T2D. We calculated annualized costs for the 24-month study period and fit a generalized linear model (excluding the most expensive 1%) that controlled for disease cohort, age, sex, and modified Charlson comorbidity index to estimate the per year all-cause healthcare costs and incremental cost of adding T2D to a NASH diagnosis (or vice versa).

RESULTS

We identified 23,111 patients diagnosed with NASH-only, 3,548,786 patients with T2D-only, and 30,339 patients with NASH + T2D. The model-predicted mean costs per year were $7,668 for patients with NASH-only, $11,226 for patients with T2D-only, and $16,812 for patients with NASH + T2D. The incremental increase in costs per year of adding T2D to NASH was 63% (+$4,846), and the incremental increase in costs per year of adding NASH to T2D was 42% (+$4,692).

CONCLUSIONS

Both NASH and T2D contribute to the high healthcare costs among patients with a dual diagnosis. Results from our analysis indicate that NASH comprises a high portion of total healthcare costs among patients with NASH and T2D.

Various ambient air pollutants, residential green spaces, fibrosis 4 scores, genetic susceptibility, and risk of severe liver disease

BACKGROUND

The relationship of air pollutants and residential exposure to greenspace with severe liver disease remains inconclusive.

OBJECTIVE

Our objective was to assess the relationship of joint exposure to air pollutants, residential exposure to greenspaces with new-onset severe liver disease.

METHODS

We included 427,697 participants without prior liver diseases from UK Biobank. A weighted air pollution score was calculated based on PM2.5, PM10, PM2.5-10, NO2, and NOX. The percentage of land coverage by residential greenspaces was estimated using land use data. The primary outcome was new-onset severe liver disease, defined as a composite outcome including hospitalization or death due to compensated or decompensated liver cirrhosis, liver failure, and hepatocellular carcinoma.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 12.0 years, 4572 participants developed severe liver disease. A higher air pollution score was significantly associated with an increased risk of new-onset severe liver disease (per SD increment; adjusted hazard ratio [HR],1.07; 95% confidence interval [CI],1.04-1.10). Moreover, residential greenspace coverage was inversely associated with new-onset severe liver disease (per SD increment; adjusted HR, 0.95; 95% CI,0.92-0.98). Genetic risks of liver cirrhosis did not significantly modify the associations (both P-interactions >0.05). However, we observed a stronger positive association between air pollution scores and new-onset severe liver disease in individuals with higher fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) scores, lower residential greenspaces, hypertension, and smokers (all P-interactions <0.05). Similarly, a more pronounced inverse association between residential exposure to greenspaces and new-onset severe liver disease was found in smokers and individuals with higher FIB-4 scores (both P-interactions<0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest a positive association between air pollution scores and the risk of new-onset severe liver disease, while residential greenspaces show an inverse association. These results underscore the importance of maintaining high exposure to green space and reducing air pollution to prevent serious liver disease.

Plant-based diets, genetic predisposition and risk of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

BACKGROUND

Diets rich in plant-based foods are associated with lower risks of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), while the prospective evidence is limited. We aimed to examine longitudinal associations of plant-based diets and genetic susceptibility with NAFLD risk.

METHODS

This longitudinal cohort study included 159,222 participants (58.0 ± 8.0 years old, 55.7% female) free of NAFLD in the UK Biobank. We calculated the overall plant-based diet index (PDI), the healthful plant-based diet index (hPDI), and the unhealthful plant-based diet index (uPDI). New-onset NAFLD was the primary outcome. The weighted polygenic risk score was calculated based on risk variants associated with NAFLD. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidential intervals (CI) were estimated by Cox proportional hazards model. Magnetic resonance imaging-derived proton density fat fraction (MRI-PDFF) measured liver fat content in a subsample of 20,692 participants (57.5 ± 7.4 years old, 52.6% female) was the secondary outcome. The associations between plant-based diet indices and MRI-PDFF were evaluated using generalized linear models.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 9.5 years, 1541 new-onset NAFLD cases were documented. Compared to the lowest quintile, multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of NAFLD in the highest quintile were 0.78 (95% confidential intervals [CI], 0.66-0.93, p-trend =0.02), 0.74 (95% CI, 0.62-0.87, p-trend <0.0001), and 1.24 (95% CI, 1.05-1.46, p-trend = 0.02) for overall PDI, hPDI, and uPDI, respectively. For liver fat content, higher overall PDI and hPDI were associated with lower MRI-PDFF, while higher uPDI was associated with higher liver fat content. We observed a significant interaction between hPDI and PRS (p-interaction =0.03), and the NAFLD risk was lowest among participants with the highest hPDI and low genetic risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher intake of plant-based diets especially healthful plant-based diets was associated with lower NAFLD risk and liver fat content regardless of genetic susceptibility, whereas an unhealthful plant-based diet was associated with higher NAFLD risk and intrahepatic steatosis. These results suggest that the quality of plant-based foods should be highlighted when adopting a plant-based diet.

Waist-hip ratio is superior to BMI in predicting liver-related outcomes and synergizes with harmful alcohol use

BACKGROUND

Obesity is associated with liver disease, but the best obesity-related predictor remains undefined. Controversy exists regarding possible synergism between obesity and alcohol use for liver-related outcomes (LRO). We assessed the predictive performance for LROs, and synergism with alcohol use, of abdominal obesity (waist-hip ratio, WHR), and compared it to overall obesity (body mass index, BMI).

METHODS

Forty-thousand nine-hundred twenty-two adults attending the Finnish health-examination surveys, FINRISK 1992-2012 and Health 2000 studies, were followed through linkage with electronic healthcare registries for LROs (hospitalizations, cancers, and deaths). Predictive performance of obesity measures (WHR, waist circumference [WC], and BMI) were assessed by Fine-Gray models and time-dependent area-under-the-curve (AUC).

RESULTS

There are 355 LROs during a median follow-up of 12.9 years (509047.8 person-years). WHR and WC emerge as more powerful predictors of LROs than BMI. WHR shows significantly better 10-year AUC values for LROs (0.714, 95% CI 0.685-0.743) than WC (0.648, 95% CI 0.617-0.679) or BMI (0.550, 95% CI 0.514-0.585) both overall and separately among men and women. WHR is predictive also in BMI strata. Absolute 10-year risks of LROs are more dependent on WHR than BMI. Moreover, WHR shows a significant supra-additive interaction effect with harmful alcohol use for liver-related outcomes (excess 10-year cumulative incidence of 2.8% from the interaction), which is not seen between BMI and harmful alcohol use.

CONCLUSIONS

WHR is a better predictor than BMI or WC for LROs, and WHR better reflects the synergism with harmful alcohol use. WHR should be included in clinical assessment when evaluating obesity-related risks for liver outcomes.

Statin prescribing patterns in patient-centered medical home patients with NAFLD

OBJECTIVES

Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of mortality in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), and statins play a pivotal role in the primary prevention of cardiovascular events. This study investigates statin prescribing in primary care patients with NAFLD to identify opportunities to address cardiovascular disease risk in this cohort.

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study of primary care electronic health record data from 2012-2018.

METHODS

This cohort included 652 patients with radiographic evidence of hepatic steatosis and no evidence of competing chronic liver disease. A statin prescription identified at any time during the study period was the primary outcome. Univariate and multivariable analyses were performed to evaluate the association of clinical signals and comorbidities with statin prescribing.

RESULTS

Of the 652 patients in the NAFLD cohort, 56% received a statin prescription during the study period. Elevations in aminotransferases were not associated with statin prescribing (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 1.17; 95% CI, 0.78-1.76), whereas older patients (AOR, 1.06; 95% CI, 1.05-1.08) and those with diabetes (AOR, 2.61; 95% CI, 1.73-3.92), hypertension (AOR, 2.76; 95% CI, 1.70-4.48), and a BMI greater than or equal to 30 kg/m2 (AOR, 1.49; 95% CI, 1.01-2.22) had higher odds of having a statin prescribed. Of the 288 patients without a statin prescription, 49% had an indication for statin therapy by atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk. In total, 16% of included patients did not have lipid panel results during the study period.

CONCLUSIONS

This study showed no association between NAFLD and statin prescribing, and the findings highlight opportunities to improve primary prevention of cardiovascular disease in these at-risk patients.

Real-World Primary Care Data Comparing ALT and FIB-4 in Predicting Future Severe Liver Disease Outcomes

BACKGROUND

Alanine aminotransferase (ALT) has long provided a cue for chronic liver disease (CLD) diagnostic evaluation, but the Fibrosis-4 Index (FIB-4), a serologic score used for predicting advanced fibrosis risk in CLD, may provide an alternative signal.

OBJECTIVE

Compare the predictive performance of FIB-4 with ALT for severe liver disease (SLD) events while adjusting for potential confounders.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study of primary care electronic health record data from 2012 to 2021.

PATIENTS

Adult primary care patients with at least two sets of ALT and other lab values necessary for calculating two unique FIB-4 scores, excluding those patients with an SLD prior to their index FIB-4 value.

MAIN MEASURES

The occurrence of an SLD event, a composite of cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and liver transplantation, was the outcome of interest. Categories of ALT elevation and FIB-4 advanced fibrosis risk were the primary predictor variables. Multivariable logistic regression models were developed to evaluate the association of FIB-4 and ALT with SLD, and the areas under the curve (AUC) for each model were compared.

KEY RESULTS

The cohort of 20,828 patients included 14% with an abnormal index ALT (≥40 IU/L) and 8% with a high-risk index FIB-4 (≥2.67). During the study period, 667 (3%) patients suffered an SLD event. Adjusted multivariable logistic regression models demonstrated an association between high-risk FIB-4 (OR 19.34; 95%CI 15.50-24.13), persistently high-risk FIB-4 (OR 23.85; 95%CI 18.24-31.17), abnormal ALT (OR 7.07; 95%CI 5.81-8.59), and persistently abnormal ALT (OR 7.58; 95%CI 5.97-9.62) with SLD outcomes. The AUC of the index FIB-4 (0.847, p < 0.001) and combined FIB-4 (0.849, p < 0.001) adjusted models exceeded the index ALT adjusted model (0.815).

CONCLUSIONS

High-risk FIB-4 scores demonstrated superior performance compared to abnormal ALT in predicting future SLD outcomes.

High serum magnesium is associated with lower risk of hepatocellular carcinoma among patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease

BACKGROUND

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a major contributor to the rising incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Magnesium is a major cation in cellular activities. Epidemiological data on magnesium level and its relation to HCC are sparse. This study aimed to examine the associations between serum levels of magnesium and the risk of HCC among patients with NAFLD.

METHODS

A total of 26,053 patients with NAFLD were identified in the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center Electronic Health Records from 2004 through 2018. After an average of 5.15 years of follow-up, 395 patients developed HCC after the first measurement of serum magnesium. Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs of HCC incidence associated with quartile levels of serum magnesium after adjustment for age, sex, race, body mass index, diuretics use, history of type 2 diabetes, history of hypertension, history of hyperlipidemia, and tobacco smoking.

RESULTS

Patients with NAFLD who developed HCC had a significantly lower mean (± standard deviation) serum magnesium (0.769 ± 0.131 mmol/L) than those who remained free of HCC (0.789 ± 0.125 mmol/L; p = .003). Compared with the lowest quartile, the HRs (95% CIs) of HCC second, third, and fourth quartiles of serum magnesium were 0.87 (0.67-1.12), 0.77 (0.57-1.04), and 0.73 (0.56-0.96), respectively, after adjustment for multiple potential confounders (P trend  = .02).

CONCLUSION

This finding suggests higher levels of serum magnesium were significantly associated with decreased risk of HCC among patients with NAFLD.

Gaps in Confirmatory Fibrosis Risk Assessment in Primary Care Patients with Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease

BACKGROUND

As recommendations for non-invasive fibrosis risk assessment in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) emerge, it is not known how often they are performed in primary care.

AIMS

We investigated the completion of confirmatory fibrosis risk assessment in primary care patients with NAFLD and indeterminate-risk or greater Fibrosis-4 Index (FIB-4) and NAFLD Fibrosis Scores (NFS).

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study of electronic health record data from a primary care clinic identified patients with diagnoses of NAFLD from 2012 through 2021. Patients with a diagnosis of a severe liver disease outcome during the study period were excluded. The most recent FIB-4 and NFS scores were calculated and categorized by advanced fibrosis risk. Charts were reviewed to identify the outcome of a confirmatory fibrosis risk assessment by liver elastography or liver biopsy for all patients with indeterminate-risk or higher FIB-4 (≥ 1.3) and NFS (≥ - 1.455) scores.

RESULTS

The cohort included 604 patients diagnosed with NAFLD. Two-thirds of included patients (399) had a FIB-4 or NFS score greater than low-risk, 19% (113) had a high-risk FIB-4 (≥ 2.67) or NFS (≥ 0.676) score, and 7% (44) had high-risk FIB-4 and NFS values. Of these 399 patients with an indication for a confirmatory fibrosis test, 10% (41) underwent liver elastography (24) or liver biopsy (18) or both (1).

CONCLUSIONS

Advanced fibrosis is a key indicator of future poor health outcomes in patients with NAFLD and a critical signal for referral to hepatology. Significant opportunities exist to improve confirmatory fibrosis risk assessment in patients with NAFLD.

Administrative coding for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease is accurate in Swedish patients

Background and Aims: Epidemiological studies of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) frequently use the International Classification of Disease (ICD) codes to identify patients. The validity of such ICD codes in a Swedish setting is unknown. Here, we aimed to validate the administrative code for NAFLD in Sweden.Methods: In total, 150 patients with an ICD-10 code for NAFLD (K76.0) from the Karolinska University Hospital between 1 January 2015 and 3 November 2021 were randomly selected. Patients were classified as true or false positives for NAFLD by medical chart review and the positive predictive value (PPV) for the ICD-10 code corresponding to NAFLD was calculated.Results: The PPV of the ICD-10 code for NAFLD was 0.82 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.76-0.89). After exclusion of patients with diagnostic coding for other liver diseases or alcohol abuse disorder (n = 14), the PPV was improved to 0.91 (95% CI 0.87-0.96). The PPV was higher in patients with coding for NAFLD in combination with obesity (0.95, 95%CI = 0.87-1.00) or type 2 diabetes (0.96, 95%CI = 0.89-1.00). However, in false-positive cases, a high alcohol consumption was common and such patients had somewhat higher Fibrosis-4 scores than true-positive patients (1.9 vs 1.3, p = 0.16)Conclusions: The ICD-10 code for NAFLD had a high PPV, that was further improved after exclusion of patients with coding for other liver diseases than NAFLD. This approach should be preferred when performing register-based studies to identify patients with NAFLD in Sweden. Still, residual alcohol-related liver disease might risk confound some findings seen in epidemiological studies which needs to be considered.

Lean individuals with NAFLD have more severe liver disease and poorer clinical outcomes (NASH-CO Study)

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The severity of liver injury and clinical outcomes in lean individuals with NAFLD is a subject of debate and very few studies have been performed in the general population. The aim of this study was to compare subject characteristics and mortality between lean and nonlean NAFLD in a community setting.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

The study population included 169,303 participants from the nationwide Constances cohort. Subjects with excessive alcohol consumption, viral hepatitis, or other liver diseases were excluded and 137,206 subjects were analyzed. The diagnosis of NAFLD and fibrosis was performed using the Fatty Liver Index and the Forns Index. The median follow-up was 3.58 years. The prevalence of NAFLD was 5.3% (95% CI: 5.2-5.4) in lean subjects, while 16.3% (95% CI: 15.7-16.8) of NAFLD subjects were lean. Despite their better metabolic profile, the prevalence of advanced fibrosis was significantly higher in lean than in nonlean NAFLD (3.7% vs. 1.7%, respectively, p < 0.01). Among NAFLD subjects and after adjustment for demographics, metabolic risk factors and lifestyle, lean status was associated with advanced fibrosis (OR=1.26, 95% CI: 1.20-1.65, p = 0.005), an increased risk of liver-related events (adjusted HR=5.84, 95% CI: 4.03-8.46), chronic kidney disease (adjusted HR=2.49, 95% CI: 1.49-4.16), and overall mortality (adjusted HR=3.01, 95% CI: 2.21-4.11). Liver-related events and overall mortality were related to the severity of fibrosis, both in lean and nonlean NAFLD subjects, whatever the usual risk factors.

CONCLUSION

This study in a large community-based cohort confirms that NAFLD in lean subjects is more severe for fibrosis, the progression of liver disease, chronic kidney disease, and overall mortality.

Risk of adverse cardiovascular outcomes among people with HIV and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease

OBJECTIVE

To examine and compare the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) between people with HIV (PWH) with and without nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD).

DESIGN

Population-based, multicenter, retrospective cohort study.

METHODS

Data on PWH between January 1, 2008, and December 31, 2020 were extracted from the TriNetX database. Primary outcomes were defined as the first incidence of myocardial infarction (MI), MACE, new-onset heart failure (HF), and a composite of cerebrovascular disease. Cox models were used to obtain hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

A total of 151 868 patients were identified as having HIV. After exclusions, 4969 patients were identified as having NAFLD. Of them, 4463 (90%) were propensity matched to a non-NAFLD control. Patients with NAFLD were older (42.9 versus 40.8 years). Among the NAFLD cohort, most participants were male and had a smoking history (12.3 versus 9.8%) than non-NAFLD. The mean follow-up was 4.8 ± 1.1 years for the NAFLD group and 5.3 ± 1.2 years for the non-NAFLD group. The risk of all outcomes was statistically significantly higher in NAFLD patients compared to those without NAFLD: MI (HR, 1.49; 95% CI, 1.11-2.01) MACE (HR, 1.49; 95% CI, 1.25-1.79), HF (HR, 1.73; 95% CI 1.37-2.19) and, cerebrovascular diseases (HR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.05-1.48) and sensitivity analysis showed similar magnitude to the one generated in the primary analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with NAFLD have an elevated risk of adverse cardiovascular events (CVEs). The results indicate the need for targeted efforts to improve awareness of risks factors associated with adverse CVEs risk in PWH with NAFLD.