The Sardinian IDDM study: 1. Epidemiology and geographical distribution of IDDM in Sardinia during 1989 to 1994

Peripheral blood mononuclear cells reactivity in recent-onset type I diabetes patients is directed against the leader peptide of preproinsulin, GAD65271-285 and GAD65431-450

Introduction

T cell reactivity against pancreatic autoantigens is considered one of the main contributors to the destruction of insulin-producing cells in type 1 diabetes (T1D). Over the years, peptide epitopes derived from these autoantigens have been described in NOD mice and in both HLA class II transgenic mice and humans. However, which ones are involved in the early onset or in the progressive phases of the disease is still unclear.

Methods

In this work we have investigated, in early-onset T1D pediatric patients and HLA-matched controls from Sardinia, the potential of preproinsulin (PPI) and glutamate decarboxylase 65 (GAD65)-derived peptides to induce spontaneous T cell proliferation responses of peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs).

Results

Significant T cell responses against PPI1-18, PPI7-19 and PPI31-49, the first two belonging to the leader sequence of PPI, and GAD65271-285 and GAD65431-450, were found in HLA-DR4, -DQ8 and -DR3, -DQ2 T1D children.

Conclusions

These data show that cryptic epitopes from the leader sequence of the PPI and GAD65271-285 and GAD65431-450 peptides might be among the critical antigenic epitopes eliciting the primary autoreactive responses in the early phases of the disease. These results may have implications in the design of immunogenic PPI and GAD65 peptides for peptide-based immunotherapy.

The Role of Gut Microbiota and Environmental Factors in Type 1 Diabetes Pathogenesis

Type 1 Diabetes (T1D) is regarded as an autoimmune disease characterized by insulin deficiency resulting from destruction of pancreatic β-cells. The incidence rates of T1D have increased worldwide. Over the past decades, progress has been made in understanding the complexity of the immune response and its role in T1D pathogenesis, however, the trigger of T1D autoimmunity remains unclear. The increasing incidence rates, immigrant studies, and twin studies suggest that environmental factors play an important role and the trigger cannot simply be explained by genetic predisposition. Several research initiatives have identified environmental factors that potentially contribute to the onset of T1D autoimmunity and the progression of disease in children/young adults. More recently, the interplay between gut microbiota and the immune system has been implicated as an important factor in T1D pathogenesis. Although results often vary between studies, broad compositional and diversity patterns have emerged from both longitudinal and cross-sectional human studies. T1D patients have a less diverse gut microbiota, an increased prevalence of Bacteriodetes taxa and an aberrant metabolomic profile compared to healthy controls. In this comprehensive review, we present the data obtained from both animal and human studies focusing on the large longitudinal human studies. These studies are particularly valuable in elucidating the environmental factors that lead to aberrant gut microbiota composition and potentially contribute to T1D. We also discuss how environmental factors, such as birth mode, diet, and antibiotic use modulate gut microbiota and how this potentially contributes to T1D. In the final section, we focus on existing recent literature on microbiota-produced metabolites, proteins, and gut virome function as potential protectants or triggers of T1D onset. Overall, current results indicate that higher levels of diversity along with the presence of beneficial microbes and the resulting microbial-produced metabolites can act as protectors against T1D onset. However, the specifics of the interplay between host and microbes are yet to be discovered.

Global and regional estimates of the morbidity due to type I diabetes among children aged 0-4 years: a systematic review and analysis

Background

Epidemiology of type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) among children aged 0-4 years globally is not well understood. We aim to assess the incidence of T1DM in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) by conducting a systematic review of previous reports. We also aim to address possible contribution to child mortality and to identify any temporal trends.

Methods

A systematic review was performed using a carefully designed search strategy to explore MEDLINE, EMBASE and Global Health databases. Data was extracted from all studies that satisfied the inclusion criteria –a total of 83 records extracted from 26 830 sources that were analysed. We used the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) process to assess quality of evidence and applied meta-analysis approaches to assess global and regional incidence and time trends.

Results

The overall pooled incidence of T1DM in children aged 0-4 years globally is 11.2 (95% CI = 10.0-12.3) per 100 000 child years. The regional incidence were the highest for European Region A (EUR A) at 15.5 (95% CI = 13.5-17.5) per 100 000 child years. EUR C had the incidence of 10.0 (95% CI = 6.5-13.6) and EUR B 5.8 (95% CI = 4.7-7.0), Region of the Americas A (AMR A) 11.4 (95% CI = 7.8-14.9), AMR B of 2.5 (95% CI = 0.2-4.8), Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR B) 7.1 (95% CI = 4.2-10.0) and Western Pacific Region (WPR A) 7.0 (95% CI = 2.9-11.0) per 100 000 child years, while other regions had very low rates or no data. When data points were categorised in the study periods and re-analysed, an increasing trend of the T1DM incidence was observed, with the incidence of 20.9 (95% CI = 7.8-34.1) per 100 000 child years in the years 2010-2015, preceded by 13.2 (95% CI = 11.0-15.5) in 2000-2009 study period, 10.0 (95% CI = 8.4-11.7) in 1990-1999 and 8.3 (95% CI = 5.1-11.6) in 1980-1989, respectively. Although the data are scarce, and variation and uncertainty are large, we estimated that the number of new cases of T1DM among children aged 0-4 years in the world each year is between 100 000 and 150 000.

Conclusions

The identified large variation in incidence estimates for different parts of the world, along with scarcity of information and the identified strong temporal increase in T1DM incidence suggest a clear need for further research into this subject.

Prediction of type 1 diabetes in Sardinian schoolchildren using islet cell autoantibodies: 10-year follow-up of the Sardinian schoolchildren type 1 diabetes prediction study

AIMS

Stable genetic background makes individuals from the Mediterranean island of Sardinia ideal to define the predictive power of islet-related autoantibodies (IRAs): glutamic acid decarboxylase antibodies (GADA), tyrosine phosphatase-like antibodies (IA-2A), islet cell antibodies (ICA) to identify T1DM progressors. The aims of the present study were: (1) determination of IRAs reference limits in healthy non-diabetic Sardinian schoolchildren (SSc). (2) Predictive power evaluation of IRAs as single or combined determination to identify islet to identify T1DM progressors.

METHODS

Between 1986 and 1994, 8448 SSc were tested for IRAs. All were followed up for 10 years. The predictive power of single or combination of IRAs was determined as hazard ratio (HR), sensitivity, specificity, area under the ROC curve, negative and positive predictive value (NPV, PPV).

RESULTS

All 43 progressors to T1DM, but three showed at least one autoantibody positivity. HR for any single-autoantibody positivity was 55.3 times greater when compared to SSc negative for all IRAs. Any single autoantibody performed at least 64.9 % sensitivity with PPV always lower than 16 %. The best performing combination was ICA, plus IA-2A (showing 52.6 % sensitivity, 99.8 % specificity, 0.76 area under the ROC curve, 51.3 % PPV and 99.8 % NPV.

CONCLUSIONS

Determination of IRAs reference limits in healthy SSc by standard statistical methods is crucial to establish the power of IRAs as progression markers to T1DM. Our data offer a solid rationale for future testing of ICA and IA-2A as routine laboratory markers to identify individuals at high risk of T1DM in the general population.

Zinc and Other Metals Deficiencies and Risk of Type 1 Diabetes: An Ecological Study in the High Risk Sardinia Island

Background

Type 1 diabetes incidence presents a decreasing gradient in Europe from the Nordic countries to the Mediterranean ones. Exception to this gradient is represented by Sardinia, the second largest Mediterranean island whose population shows the highest incidence in Europe, after Finland. The genetic features of this population have created a fertile ground for the epidemic of the disease, however, as well as being strikingly high, the incidence rate has suddenly presented a continuous increase from the ‘50s, not explainable by accumulation of new genetic variants. Several environmental factors have been taken into account, possibly interacting with the genetic/epigenetic scenario, but there are no strong evidences to date.

Methods

The present study investigated the hypothesis that geochemical elements could create permissive environmental conditions for autoimmune diabetes. An ecological analysis was performed to test possible correlations between the values of eight elements in stream sediments and type 1 diabetes incidence rate in Sardinia.

Results

Analyses revealed negative associations between elements, such as Co, Cr, Cu, Mn, Ni, Zn, and type 1 diabetes incidence.

Conclusions

The results suggest a possible protective role of some elements against the onset of the disease.

Association of trace elements with lipid profiles and glycaemic control in patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus in northern Sardinia, Italy: An observational study

Sardinia is an Italian region with a high incidence of type 1 diabetes mellitus. This study aimed to determine the associations of trace elements with lipid profiles and glycaemic control in patients with T1DM. A total of 192 patients with T1DM who attended the Unit of Diabetology and Metabolic Diseases in Sassari, Italy, were enrolled. Trace elements zinc, copper, selenium, chromium, and iron were measured in whole blood by sector field inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. The correlations between metabolic variables and the levels of trace elements were determined. Zinc was positively correlated with total cholesterol (P=0.023), low-density lipoprotein (P=0.0015), and triglycerides (P=0.027). Iron as significantly correlated with TC (P=0.0189), LDL (P=0.0121), and high-density lipoprotein (HDL) (P=0.0466). In males, Cr was positively correlated with HDL (P=0.0079) and Se, in females was correlated with TG (P=0.0113). The mean fasting plasma glucose was166.2mgdL(-1). Chromium was correlated with fasting plasma glucose (P=0.0149), particularly in males (P=0.0038). Overall, 63.5% of the patients had moderate HbA1c (7-9%). Copper was significantly correlated with HbA1c% in males (P=0.0155). In conclusion, the results of this study indicate that trace elements show different associations with lipid levels and glycaemic control in T1DM. Zinc, Fe, and Se were associated with lipid levels whereas Cu and Cr were associated with HbA1c%.

Study of factors influencing susceptibility and age at onset of type 1 diabetes: A review of data from Continental Italy and Sardinia

AIM: To investigate the role of protein tyrosin phosphatase 22 (PTPN22), maternal age at conception and sex on susceptibility and age at onset of type 1 diabetes (T1D) in Continental Italy and Sardinian populations.

METHODS: Three hundred seventy six subjects admitted consecutively to the hospital for T1D and 1032 healthy subjects as controls were studied in Continental Italy and 284 subjects admitted consecutively to the hospital for T1D and 5460 healthy newborns were studied in Sardinia. PTPN22 genotype was determined by DNA analysis. Maternal age at conception and age at onset of disease were obtained from clinical records. χ² test of independence, student t test for differences between means and odds ratio analysis were carried out by SPSS programs. Three way contingency table analysis was carried out according to Sokal and Rohlf.

RESULTS: The pattern of association between PTPN22 and T1D is similar in Continental Italy and Sardinia: the proportion of *T allele carriers is 13.6% in T1D vs 6.7% in controls in Continental Italy while in Sardinia is 7.3% in T1D vs 4.4% in controls. The association between T1D and maternal age at conception is much stronger in Sardinia than in Italy: the proportion of newborn from mother aging more than 32 years is 89.3% in T1D vs 32.7% in consecutive newborn in Sardinia (P < 10^-6) while in Continental Italy is 32.2% in T1D vs 19.1% in consecutive newborns (P = 0.005). This points to an important role of ethnicity. A slight prevalence of T1D males on T1D females is observed both in Continental Italy and Sardinia. PTPN22 genotype does not exert significant effect on the age at onset neither in Continental Italy nor and Sardinia. Maternal age does not influence significantly age at onset in Italy (8.2 years in T1D infants from mothers aging 32 years or less vs 7.89 years in T1D infants from mothers aging more than 32 years: P = 0.824) while in Sardinia a border line effect is observed (5.75 years in T1D infants from mothers aging 32 years or less vs 7.54 years in T1D infants from mothers aging more than 32 years: P = 0.062). No effect of sex on age at onset is observed in Continental Italy while in Sardinia female show a lower age at onset of T1D as compared to males (8.07 years in males vs 6.3 years in females: P = 0.002).

CONCLUSION: The present data confirm the importance of ethnicity on susceptibility and on the age at onset of T1D.

Regional differences in incidence and clinical presentation of type 1 diabetes in children aged under 15 years in Croatia

AIM

To determine regional differences in the incidence, incidence trends, and clinical presentation of type 1 diabetes in children under the age of 15 years in Croatia in a 9-year period (1995-2003).

METHODS

We included the patients who had been diagnosed with the disease and had started the insulin treatment before they were 15 years old. Regional differences between eastern, central, and southern Croatia were observed. The gross incidence was expressed by the number of newly diagnosed type 1 diabetes patients in 100000 children of the same age and sex per year, ie, for the 0-14 age group, and for the 0-4, 5-9, and 10-14 subgroups.

RESULTS

The highest incidence was observed in southern Croatia (10.91 per 100000/y) and the lowest in central Croatia (8.64 per 100000/y), and in eastern Croatia the incidence was 8.93 per 100000/y. All three regions showed a growing incidence trend, which was significant only in eastern and southern Croatia. There was 35.9% of patients with diabetic ketoacidosis in eastern Croatia, 41.7% in central Croatia, and 31.28% in southern Croatia.

CONCLUSION

Croatian regions show differences in the incidence, incidence trends, and disease presentation of type 1 diabetes. A further follow-up is needed to establish whether the regional differences are a consequence of the population dynamics in the observed period or they will continue to exist, pointing to differences in environmental risk factors.

The Sardinian way to type 1 diabetes

Sardinia and Finland are the "hottest" areas for type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) worldwide. Its genetic and epidemiological background make Sardinia an ideal region for investigating environmental, immunological, and genetic factors related to the etiopathogenesis of T1DM. Consequently, in 1990, the Insulin-Dependent Diabetes Mellitus Sardinia Project was launched in order to map the geographical distribution of T1DM in the island and to investigate preclinical phases of T1DM in a large cohort of people genetically at risk. The final goal would be to design models of prediction and to formulate safe preventive measures, especially addressed to the general population living in areas at high risk.

Clustering of cases of type 1 diabetes in high socioeconomic communes in Santiago de Chile: spatio-temporal and geographical analysis

The objective of this study was to describe spatial and space-time patterns of type 1 diabetes in children less than 15 years old, diagnosed between 2000 and 2005 with residence in the Metropolitan Region of Chile. Knox and Mantel tests were used to detect space-time interaction between cases. An ecological Bayesian model adjusted by socioeconomic factor and year was proposed to estimate the incidence by communes. Initially, there was no space-time interaction between cases, but there is evidence of clustering effect in urban areas of the region. The incidence rate for the overall study period was estimated by 6.18/100,000 (95% CI: 5.69-6.70), with a significant annual trend of 8.2% (P < 0.01). The geographical incidence could be explained by the human development index, as a socioeconomic factor. These results suggest that children living in communes with higher socioeconomic levels may be at higher risk of developing type 1 diabetes. Our findings support the hypothesis of an aetiological role of environmental factors in the onset of type 1 diabetes.

Defining and analyzing geoepidemiology and human autoimmunity

Autoimmune diseases cumulatively affect 5-10% of the industrial world population and are a significant cause of morbidity and mortality. In recent decades rates are rising worldwide, and autoimmunity can no longer be associated solely with the more developed "Western" countries. Geoepidemiology of autoimmune diseases portrays the burden of these illnesses across various regions and ethnic populations. Furthermore, Geoepidemiology may yield important clues to the genetic and triggering environmental mechanisms of autoimmunity. In this review we compiled and discuss in depth abundant geoepidemiological data pertaining to four major autoimmune conditions, namely type-1 diabetes mellitus, multiple sclerosis, autoimmune thyroid disease, and inflammatory bowel disease. The following key results manifested in this review: 1) Ethno-geographic gradients in autoimmune disease risk are attributable to a complex interplay of genetic and environmental pressures. 2) Industrial regions, particularly Northern Europe and North America, still exhibit the highest rates for most autoimmune diseases. 3) Methods particularly useful in demonstrating the significant influence of genetic and environmental factors include comparative ethnic differences studies, migration studies, and recognition of 'hotspots'. 4) Key environmental determinants of geographical differences include diminished ultraviolet radiation exposure, Western or affluence-related lifestyle, infection exposure, environmental pollutants, nutritional factors and disease-specific precipitants (e.g., iodine exposure).

A low incidence of Type 1 diabetes between 1977 and 2001 in south-eastern Sweden in areas with high population density and which are more deprived

AIMS

To explore how socioeconomic factors and population density may contribute to the geographical variation of incidence of Type 1 diabetes in children in south-eastern Sweden.

METHOD

All children diagnosed with Type 1 diabetes in south-eastern Sweden during 1977-2001 were defined geographically to their place of residence and were allocated x and y coordinates in the national grid. The population at risk and socioeconomic data were aggregated in 82,000 200-m squares and geocoded likewise. A socioeconomic index was calculated using a signed chi(2) method. Rural-urban gradients were defined by overlay analysis in a geographic information system.

RESULTS

The incidence during the past 25 years has been rising steadily, particularly in the last 6 years. The incidence was highest in areas with a high proportion of small families, of families with a high family income and better education, and this was found both at the time of diagnosis and at the time of birth. In the rural-urban analysis, the lowest incidence was found in the urban area with > 20,000 inhabitants, where there was also a higher frequency of deprivation.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings indicate that geographical variations in incidence rates of Type 1 diabetes in children are associated with socioeconomic factors and population density, although other contributing factors remain to be explained.

Increasing Incidence of Multiple Sclerosis in the Province of Sassari, Northern Sardinia

Sardinia is a high-risk area for multiple sclerosis (MS), with prevalence rates of 150 per 100,000 population. The study included 689 MS patients (female-male ratio 2.6) with disease onset between 1965 and 1999 in the province of Sassari. The mean annual incidence rate increased significantly from 1.1 per 100,000 population in 1965-1969 to 5.8 in 1995-1999, with no significant difference for gender and province sub-areas. The mean age at onset increased significantly during the same period from 25.7 to 30.6 years, while the proportion of patients with progressive initial course declined over time. The marked increase of MS incidence and the change of MS clinical phenotype over time cannot be explained by ascertainment bias only, thus pointing to a corresponding change in the distribution of exogenous risk factors in this highly genetically stable population.

Risk of type 1 diabetes in childhood and maternal age at delivery, interaction with ACP1 and sex

BACKGROUND

We have investigated the possible role of ACP1 (also known as cLMWPTP: cytosolic low molecular weight phosphotyrosine phosphatase), a highly polymorphic enzyme involved in signal transduction of T-cell receptor, insulin receptor and other growth factors in the relationship between maternal age at delivery and risk of type 1 diabetes in the offspring.

METHODS

One hundred and eighty-nine consecutive children with type 1 diabetes (TIDM) diagnosed at the Department of Pediatrics of the University of Sassari (Sardinia) were studied. A control sample of 5460 consecutive newborns from the same population was also studied.

RESULTS

Maternal age at birth of children with type 1 diabetes has shifted towards high values. There is also an effect of birth order on the susceptibility to type 1 diabetes, which is independent of that due to maternal age. The proportion of low activity ACPl genotypes is much higher among children born from older mothers than among diabetic children born from relatively young mothers. There is a significant effect of sex, maternal age, sex-ACPl two-way interaction and sex-ACP1-maternal age three-way interaction on the age at diagnosis of diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS

The present data confirm the strong association between maternal age at delivery and risk of type 1 diabetes in the child. In addition, our analysis suggests a complex interaction among maternal age, sex of infant and ACP1 concerning age at diagnosis of diabetes. Thus, risk and clinical course of type 1 diabetes seem to be dependent on both maternal environment during intrauterine development and foetal genetic factors.

Diabetes incidence in 0- to 14-year age-group in Italy: a 10-year prospective study

OBJECTIVE

The Registry for Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus in Italy (RIDI) Study Group was established to coordinate the registries of type 1 diabetes in Italy. This report is based on 3,606 children younger than 15 years diagnosed with type 1 diabetes and prospectively registered during 1990-1999 by nine centers, covering >35% of the Italian population.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Registries were pooled in four geographic macro-areas: north, central, south, and insular. The completeness of registration was assessed by the capture-recapture method. Poisson regression analysis was used to evaluate temporal trend in incidence.

RESULTS

Large variations in incidence were confirmed not only between Sardegna and the mainland but also among peninsular areas. In Sardegna, there was an excess of boys (the boy-to-girl incidence ratio was 1.4). The overall incidence showed average increases of 3.6% (P <0.001) and 3.7% (P <0.001) per year in peninsular Italy and in Sardegna, respectively. Significant increases in incidence rates were found in boys aged 10-14 years (6.7%, 95% CI 0.5-13.3) and in girls aged 5-9 years (6.6%, 0.5-13.1) living in the southern area. The incidence rate also increased in boys aged 10-14 years (5.0%, 0.3-10) and in girls aged 0-4 years (4.9%, 0.8-9.1) living in Sardegna.

CONCLUSIONS

Italy is a country with large geographical variations in incidence rates of type 1 diabetes. However, the rates are evenly increasing both in the mainland and Sardegna, suggesting that similar environmental factors are operating over populations that have different genetic backgrounds.

Geographical mapping of type 1 diabetes in children and adolescents in south east Sweden

STUDY OBJECTIVE

As earlier studies have shown space-time clusters at onset of type 1 diabetes in the south east region of Sweden we investigated if there also has been any geographical clusters of diabetes in this region.

DESIGN

The place of residence (coordinates) at the time of diagnosis were geocoded in a geographical information system (GIS). All children diagnosed with type 1 diabetes up to 16 years of age at diagnosis between 1977-1995 were included. The population at risk was obtained directly from the population registry for the respective years and geographical area levels.

SETTING

South east region of Sweden containing 5 counties, 49 municipalities, and 525 parishes.

MAIN RESULTS

A significant geographical variation in incidence rate were found between the municipalities (p<0.001) but not between the counties. The variation became somewhat weaker when excluding the six largest municipalities (p<0.02). In municipalities with increased risk (>35.1/100 000) the major contribution comes from children in age group 6-10 years of age at diagnosis. There were no obvious differences between the age groups in municipalities with decreased risk (<20.1/100 000). Boys and girls had about the same degree of geographical variation.

CONCLUSIONS

Apart from chance, the most probable explanation for the geographical variation in the risk for children and adolescents to develop type 1 diabetes between the municipalities in the region is that local environmental factors play a part in the process leading to the disease.

Type 1 diabetes among sardinian children is increasing: the Sardinian diabetes register for children aged 0-14 years (1989-1999)

OBJECTIVE

The Sardinian type 1 diabetes register represented the basis to determine the most recent trends and the age distribution of type 1 diabetes incidence among Sardinians <15 years of age during 1989-1999. Part of the data (1989-1998) has been already published by the EURODIAB Group with a lower completeness of ascertainment (87%). The geographical distribution of type 1 diabetes risk was also investigated.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

The new cases of type 1 diabetes in children aged 0-14 years in Sardinia were prospectively registered from 1989 to 1999 according to the EURODIAB ACE criteria. The completeness of ascertainment calculated applying the capture-recapture method was 91%. Standardized incidence rates and 95% CI were calculated assuming the Poisson distribution. Trend of type 1 diabetes incidence was analyzed using the Poisson regression model. Maps of the geographical distribution of type 1 diabetes risk for the whole time period and separately for 1989-1994 and 1995-1999 were produced applying a Bayesian method.

RESULTS

A total of 1214 type 1 diabetic patients were registered yielding to an overall age- and sex-standardized incidence rate of 38.8/100000 (95% CI 36.7-41.1). There was a male excess with an overall male-to-female ratio of 1.4 (1.3-1.8). The increase of incidence during the 11 years analyzed was statistically significant (P = 0.002) with a yearly increasing rate of 2.8% (1.0-4.7). No evidence of an effect of age and sex on this trend has been found. The geographical distribution of type 1 diabetes relative risk (RR) showed that the highest risk areas are located in the southern and central-eastern part of the island and the lowest risk in the northeastern part, even if most of these differences were not statistically significant. This geographical distribution seemed to remain mainly the same between 1989-1994 and 1995-1999.

CONCLUSIONS

The homogeneity of diabetes risk and the increase of incidence over the age-groups in the Sardinian population stress the role of an environmental factor uniformly distributed among the genetically high-risk Sardinians.

An increasing trend in the incidence of type 1 diabetes mellitus in children aged 0-14 years in Romania--ten years (1988-1997) EURODIAB study experience

AIM

To assess the incidence of type 1 diabetes mellitus (DM1) in Romanian children aged 0-14 years using EURODIAB Study methodology.

METHODS

Data were collected for a 10-year interval (1988-1997) for the whole country, using the capture-recapture method.

RESULTS

We registered 1,418 newly diagnosed patients. The mean total incidence rate was 3.051/100,000/year. There was a wide geographic variation (6.71-fold) between the highest and the lowest incidence rates in different districts. We noticed a progressive increase of age-specific incidence rates from 1.43/100,000/year for the 0-4 year age subgroup to 4.37/100,000/year (10-14 years). The annual mean incidence rate rose from 1.91/100,000/year (1988) to 3.94/100,000/year (1996).

CONCLUSIONS

Romania is one of the European countries with the lowest incidence rates (3.051/100,000/year) for DM1 in children. There was an evident increasing trend of DM1 incidence in children between 1988 and 1997, with an annual increase of 7.57%.

Bayesian approach to study the temporal trend and the geographical variation in the risk of type 1 diabetes. The Sardinian Conscript Type 1 Diabetes Registry

BACKGROUND

A previous analysis of the Sardinian Conscript Type 1 Diabetes Registry indicated an abrupt increase in the risk for type 1 diabetes (T1D) among Sardinian male cohorts starting from the 1946 one.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to update the point prevalence of T1D among Sardinian male army conscripts aged 18 yr from 1992 to 1997 described in the previous survey and to update its secular trend. It also looked at the geographical distribution of prevalence.

SUBJECTS AND METHODS

All male Italian citizens must appear before the Conscript Board for a clinical examination prior to military service. T1D patients are rejected with T1D listed as the reason. We examined, retrospectively, a total of 83807 Sardinian males aged 18, born between 1 January 1974 and 31 December 1979. They virtually represent the whole Sardinian population of that age and sex.

RESULTS

A total of 307 subjects with T1D were identified. T1D point prevalence for the birth cohorts 1974-1979 was 3.66/1000 (95% CI 3.28-4.09). Bayesian analysis of the geographical distribution of prevalence shows the highest rate in the Southern part of the island (Cagliari province) and the lowest in the north-western part (Sassari province). A similar picture was produced by data from the Eurodiab Registry in Sardinia (1989 ongoing). No significant temporal trend of prevalence was seen in the 6 yr examined in the current study; pooling these recent birth cohorts with the previous ones, the increasing trend of prevalence was confirmed.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data confirmed the South to North gradient of T1D and the progressive increase of T1D risk among males in Sardinia.

The incidence of type 1 diabetes among children in Finland—rural–urban difference

The aim of the study was to investigate the incidence of type 1 diabetes among children aged 14 years or under according to the level of urbanization of the place of residence of children at the time of diagnosis in Finland during 1987 to 1996. The analysis was carried out using a Bayesian approach and GIS. The incidence was the highest in the rural heartland areas while the increase in incidence was sharpest in urban areas. The level of urbanization seems to explain only a part of the spatial variation in the incidence in Finland. It is possible that some environmental risk factors for type 1 diabetes have been more prevalent in rural heartland areas than in the rest of the country. These factors might have increased in urban environments in Finland particularly during the first half of 1990s.

High incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes in Liguria, Italy, from 1989 to 1998

OBJECTIVE

Assessing updated incidence of type 1 diabetes in 0- to 14-year-old children in Liguria, a Northwest region of Italy.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Incident cases were recorded prospectively from 1989 to 1998. Incidence rates (IRs) were standardized to the 1999 world population using the direct method. The independent effect of sex, age, residence, and calendar year was estimated with Poisson regression model. The degree of ascertainment was calculated in accordance to capture/recapture method.

RESULTS

During 10 full calendar years, 219 new cases of type 1 diabetes in children were diagnosed in Liguria. The standardized IR over the 10-year period was 12.56 cases per 100,000 per year (95% CI 11.0-14.3). The sex-specific IR among men and women was 14.15 and 10.88, respectively. The age-specific IR was higher in the 10- to 14-year-old age-group (15.01/100,000) than in 0- to 4-year-old age-group (9.01/100,000) and in the 5- to 9-year-old age-group (13.03/100,000).

CONCLUSIONS

The IR of type 1 diabetes in Liguria is among the highest in Southern Europe and approaches IRs of Northern European countries. In particular it is much higher than those reported in the surrounding Italian regions except for Sardinia. Therefore, the geographical distribution of type 1 diabetes does not seem to reflect the simple North-South gradient reported in several previous works.

Increase in the incidence of type 1 diabetes mellitus in children in three cities in Poland, 1987-1999

The aim of this study was to evaluate the trends in the incidence of type 1 diabetes mellitus (DM) in children aged 0-14 years between 1987 and 1999 in three cities in Poland. The study area comprised the provinces of Cracow and Wroclaw and the city of Warsaw. The data were collected prospectively on the basis of the register within the framework of the EURODIAB study up till 1997 and then within the project of the Ministry of Health. During the 13 years of the study period, 766 children (380 girls, 386 boys) with newly diagnosed type 1 DM were identified. The overall age-standardized incidence rates were 8.4/100,000 standardized population/year (95% CI 7.4-9.3) for Cracow province, 6.5/100,000/year (95% CI 5.6-7.4) for Wroclaw province and 7.9/100,000/year (95% CI 6.9-8.8) for Warsaw. A significant trend of increase for children aged 0-14 years was found in the three cities. The analysis of the trend in age subgroups showed a significant increase in incidence in all three age subgroups in Warsaw and Cracow province (0-4 year-old children, p <0.05; 5-9 year-olds, p <0.001 in Cracow province, p <0.05 in Warsaw, and in 10-14 year-olds, p <0.05 in Cracow province, p <0.005 in Warsaw). In the Wroclaw province a significant increase was observed in children aged 0-4 years (p <0.05) and 5-9 years (p <0.001). In children aged 10-14 years the increase was not statistically significant. The results of our study showed that the incidence of type 1 DM in children is rising. A similar phenomenon is occurring in many other countries. The greatest increase of incidence was observed in the 5-9 year-old subgroup of children in Cracow and Wroclaw provinces and in children aged 10-14 years in Warsaw. The incidence rates in excess of 9.0/100,000 per year observed since 1996 have placed Poland in the group of countries with low to medium incidence.

A ten-year (1989-1998) perspective study of the incidence of Type 1 diabetes in the district of Catania (Sicily) in a 0-14 year age group

The aim of this report was to evaluate the incidence of Type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) in the district of Catania (eastern Sicily) in children under 15 yr of age over a ten-yr period (01/01/1989 - 31/12/1998) in relation to age, sex, monthly-seasonal variability, calendar yr and spatial clustering. The estimated completeness of our register was 99.2%. The overall incidence rate was 12.38 per 100,000 during the period of the study. Twenty-four percent of cases were 0-4 yr at diagnosis, 42% were 5-9 yr and 34% were 10-14 yr. More males (no. 148) than females (no. 125) were newly diagnosed with a male/female ratio similar to the base population ratio in the range 0-14 yr and within age groups. The study revealed a non-random spatial distribution of T1DM incidence in children not accounted for by known demographic factors. A significant seasonal pattern and temporal trend of incidence were also detected.

Incidence, prevalence, and mortality of insulin-dependent (type 1) diabetes mellitus in Lithuanian children during 1983-98

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Our purpose is to analyze interrelations of the incidence, prevalence and mortality of childhood-onset insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (type 1) in Lithuania.

METHODS

Incidence and prevalence rates were based on the national type 1 diabetes register during 1983-98. The cohort study was performed to evaluate the standardized mortality ratios.

RESULTS

The average incidence of type 1 diabetes during the 16-yr study period was 7.36 per 100,000/yr. For both males and females the highest incidence of type 1 diabetes was recorded in the 10-14 yr age group. The regression-based linear trends of the increase in incidence in various age groups and the annual percentage change for both genders was 2.05 (p = 0.0039) and the greatest regression slope is observed for both genders in the 10-14 yr age group. Regression-based linear trends in type 1 diabetes prevalence indicate an even growth in all age groups (3.47; p = 0.001), although the annual percentage change is most prominent in the 5-9 yr age group for girls (4.95%/yr) and in the 10-14 yr age group for boys (4.06%/yr). The standardized mortality ratio of all-cause mortality in people with diabetes is higher than in the common population 7.71 (p < 0.0001). The standard mortality ratio for all causes increases with longer diabetes duration.

CONCLUSION/INTERPRETATION

The significant increasing trend of incidence and prevalence during 1983-98 is observed. The annual percentage change is similar. The young patients with type 1 diabetes have a higher mortality risk.

The Sardinian Autoimmunity Study: 3. Studies on circulating antithyroid antibodies in Sardinian schoolchildren: relationship to goiter prevalence and thyroid function

The relationship among iodine intake, goiter prevalence, and thyroid autoimmunity remains controversial. In the present article, we report the prevalence of antithyroid antibodies (ATA) in relation to iodine intake, frequency of goiter, and thyroid function in a large group of Sardinian schoolchildren living in areas with borderline iodine sufficiency, or mild to moderate iodine deficiency. A total of 8,040 schoolchildren (4,194 males, 3,846 females, ages 6-15 years) from 29 communities were examined between 1986-1994. Thyroid size was assessed by palpation, according to the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) criteria. In all cases antimicrosomal (MAb) or antithyroid peroxidase antibodies (TPOAb) and thyrotropin (TSH) were assayed. Urinary iodine was determined in a subgroup of 820 children. ATA was detected in 235 (2.92%) sera (88 males, 2.12%; 147 females, 3.82%; chi2 = 20.41, p < 0.0001). ATA prevalence ranged between 0.0%-7.3% in the 29 communities without any geographical correlation with goiter prevalence and urinary iodine excretion. However, ATA was more frequently detected in goitrous children, especially in females. The presence of ATA was not age-dependent in males, whereas a significant increase of ATA was observed in females older than 11 years of age. Seventy-seven (0.96%) children showed borderline to slightly increased serum TSH (>5.2-32 mU/L). Increased serum TSH concentration was more frequently found in children with ATA, especially at higher titers. In summary, our study in Sardinian schoolchildren indicates: (1) ATA display geographical heterogeneity, which seems to be unrelated to goiter prevalence and/or to iodine supply; (2) ATA are more frequently detected in females older than 11 years of age, suggesting that puberty has a role in determining the predominance in females of thyroid autoimmunity; (3) although most goitrous children are ATA-negative, the prevalence of ATA is increased in children with enlarged glands; (4) ATA is associated with an increased prevalence of subclinical hypothyroidism.

The sardinian autoimmunity study. 4. Thyroid and islet cell autoantibodies in sardinian pregnant women at delivery: a cross-sectional study

A high incidence of autoimmune Type 1 diabetes mellitus (DM) has been clearly established in Sardinia. Although systematic epidemiological studies are still not available, an increased prevalence of thyroid autoantibodies (ATA) has been documented in the Sardinian adult population as compared to other Italian regions, suggesting that thyroid autoimmune disease may also have increased. We carried out a preliminary study with the aim of determining the prevalence of serological markers of thyroid (anti-thyroperoxydase antibodies, TPOAb) and islet cell (ICA) autoimmunity in a large number (no.=2249) of sera obtained from cord-blood of Sardinian pregnant women at delivery. The prevalence of TPOAb was 11.9%, while ICA were detected in 59 cases (2.6%). A higher prevalence of TPOAb (6/17=35.3%) was found in sera with high ICA titers (> or = 20 JDF-U), as compared to sera with low ICA titers (5-19 JDF-U) and to ICA-negative sera (3/42=7,1%; chi2=5.4, p=0.02 and 258/2190=11,8%; chi2=6.8, p=0.009 respectively). Fourteen women (all ICA-negative) were diabetic: 4 had Type 1 and 10 had gestational DM; due to the low number, no correlation could be established between DM type and TPOAb prevalence and/or titer. These preliminary data indicate that ATA are frequently observed in the general population of Sardinian pregnant women at term. As a consequence, even the frequency of postpartum thyroiditis is expected to be high. Although ATA were not increased in women with clinical overt diabetes, a higher prevalence of ATA was found in women with high titers of circulating ICA. Our results also confirm that Sardinia represents, perhaps for its peculiar genetic characteristics, an ideal place to study organ-specific autoimmunity.

Diffusion and prediction of Leishmaniasis in a large metropolitan area in Brazil with a Bayesian space-time model

We present results from an analysis of human visceral Leishmaniasis cases based on public health records of Belo Horizonte, Brazil, from 1994 to 1997. The main emphasis in this study is on the development of a spatial statistical model to map and project the rates of visceral Leishmaniasis in Belo Horizonte. The model allows for space-time interaction and it is based on a hierarchical Bayesian approach. We assume that the underlying rates evolve in time according to a polynomial trend specific to each small area in the region. The parameters of these polynomials receive a spatial distribution in the form of an autonormal distribution. While the raw rates are extremely noisy and inadequate to support decisions, the resulting smoothed rates estimates are considerably less affected by small area issues and provide very clear directions to implement public health actions.

Seasonality of birth in children (0-14 years) and young adults (0-29 years) with type 1 diabetes mellitus in Sardinia differs from that in the general population. The Sardinian Collaborative Group for Epidemiology of IDDM

A cohort of 1,118 children (0-14 years) and 810 adolescents and young adults (15-29 years) with type 1 diabetes mellitus (DM) diagnosed in Sardinia between 1989 and 1998 were analyzed for seasonality of month of birth, and compared to the pattern registered in 314,084 live births. Patients with DM of both age groups had a statistically significant different seasonality pattern from the general population, revealing an increased birth rate during the summer months, a mirror image of the seasonality of onset of disease.

The rising incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes in New South Wales, Australia

OBJECTIVES

1. To determine the incidence of type 1 (insulin dependent) diabetes in children aged 0-14 years who were resident in the state of New South Wales, Australia over the period 1992-1996. 2. To analyse the trends in incidence over the period 1990-1996.

METHODS

Primary ascertainment of patients was performed using a prospective incidence register established in 1990. The secondary source of ascertainment was the National Diabetes Supply Scheme, a government subsidised scheme for diabetic supplies.

RESULTS

There were 1,230 patients identified over the five-year period. Using the capture-recapture method, ascertainment was estimated to be 99% complete. The lowest incidence occurred in 1992 (16.9 per 10(5) person years) and the highest incidence was in 1995 (21.7 per 10(5)). The crude incidence of IDDM from 1990-1996 was 17.8 per 10(5) and there was a statistically significant rise in the incidence of type 1 diabetes over this period (p=0.0003). The annual incidence has increased on average by 3.2% per year since 1990.

CONCLUSION

The incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes in NSW has increased significantly since 1990.

Migrant populations and the incidence of type 1 diabetes mellitus: an overview of the literature with a focus on the Spanish-heritage countries in Latin America

Type 1 diabetes mellitus (DM) is a 'chronic' autoimmune disorder leading to the destruction of the pancreatic beta cell. The natural history of diabetes includes a long subclinical (prediabetes) period. The pathogenesis is multifactorial and characterized by the interaction of environmental factors, with predisposing genes, most of which are associated with the HLA DR DQ loci. The relatively recent development of worldwide incidence registries for Type 1 DM has allowed us to compare the epidemiological results obtained in most parts of the world. This approach is particularly valuable in analysing the effects of migration of populations from one area of the world where the incidence of Type 1 DM is different (usually lower) to a new geographic setting. Properly designed migrant studies may be valuable in uncovering whether the genetic background remains more important than the new 'exposure' as illustrated by the Sardinian migration to Lazio and Lombardy. The presence of some putative 'protective' environmental exposures or the absence of those prevalent in the country of origin may explain the usually lower Type 1 DM incidence observed in most countries (Chile, Peru, Mexico) sharing a 'Spanish caucasoid genetic pool', and even in relatively genetically homogeneous groups such as Japanese populations migrating to Hawaii. In fact, the disease is caused by both genetic and environmental factors and to convince the scientific community of this fact is a primary responsibility for epidemiologists.