Severity assessment tools to guide ICU admission in community-acquired pneumonia: systematic review and meta-analysis

Comparing Outcomes of Community-Acquired Pneumonia Patients Discharged from General Medicine and Respiratory Units in Australia: A Propensity Score-Matched Analysis

Background/Objectives: Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is a common emergency presentation in Australia, with the choice of admitting specialty unit often influenced by pneumonia severity and comorbidities. However, it remains unclear whether there are between-specialty differences in patient characteristics and outcomes. We sought to address this issue by investigating the characteristics and outcomes of CAP patients admitted to General Medicine (GM) versus Respiratory units. Methods: This retrospective observational study utilised data from the two largest metropolitan hospitals in South Australia, encompassing all non-COVID-19-related CAP admissions throughout 2021 to 2023. The hospital length of stay (LOS), in-patient and 30-day mortality, and 30-day readmission rates were assessed by propensity score matching (PSM) using 17 variables. Results: Of the 3004 cases of non-COVID-19 CAP admitted across the two hospitals during the study period, 2673 (71.8%) were admitted under GM units and 331 (9.1%) under Respiratory units. GM patients were, on average, a decade older, presented with a significantly higher burden of comorbidities, exhibited a greater prevalence of frailty, and had higher pneumonia severity compared to those admitted under a Respiratory unit (p < 0.05). Unadjusted analysis revealed a shorter median LOS among GM-admitted patients (5.9 vs. 4.1 days, p < 0.001). After PSM adjustment, patients admitted under the Respiratory units had an 8-fold higher odds of a longer LOS compared to GM (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 8.53, 95% CI 1.96-37.25, p = 0.004). Other clinical outcomes were comparable between the two groups. Conclusions: Our findings indicate that GM units compared to Respiratory units provide efficient and safe care for patients requiring hospitalisation for CAP.

Antibiotic Strategies for Severe Community-Acquired Pneumonia

Despite advancements in health systems and intensive care unit (ICU) care, along with the introduction of novel antibiotics and microbiologic techniques, mortality rates in severe community-acquired pneumonia (sCAP) patients have not shown significant improvement. Delayed admission to the ICU is a major risk factor for higher mortality. Apart from choosing the appropriate site of care, prompt and appropriate antibiotic therapy significantly affects the prognosis of sCAP. Treatment regimens involving ceftaroline or ceftobiprole are currently considered the best options for managing patients with sCAP. Additionally, several other molecules, such as delafloxacin, lefamulin, and omadacycline, hold promise as therapeutic strategies for sCAP. This review aims to provide a comprehensive summary of the key challenges in managing adults with severe CAP, focusing on essential aspects related to antibiotic treatment and investigating potential strategies to enhance clinical outcomes in sCAP patients.

Severe Community-Acquired Pneumonia: Noninvasive Mechanical Ventilation, Intubation, and HFNT

Severe acute respiratory failure (ARF) is a major issue in patients with severe community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). Standard oxygen therapy is the first-line therapy for ARF in the less severe cases. However, respiratory supports may be delivered in more severe clinical condition. In cases with life-threatening ARF, invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) will be required. Noninvasive strategies such as high-flow nasal therapy (HFNT) or noninvasive ventilation (NIV) by either face mask or helmet might cover the gap between standard oxygen and IMV. The objective of all the supporting measures for ARF is to gain time for the antimicrobial treatment to cure the pneumonia. There is uncertainty regarding which patients with severe CAP are most likely to benefit from each noninvasive support strategy. HFNT may be the first-line approach in the majority of patients. While NIV may be relatively contraindicated in patients with excessive secretions, facial hair/structure resulting in air leaks or poor compliance, NIV may be preferable in those with increased work of breathing, respiratory muscle fatigue, and congestive heart failure, in which the positive pressure of NIV may positively impact hemodynamics. A trial of NIV might be considered for select patients with hypoxemic ARF if there are no contraindications, with close monitoring by an experienced clinical team who can intubate patients promptly if they deteriorate. In such cases, individual clinician judgement is key to choose NIV, interface, and settings. Due to the paucity of studies addressing IMV in this population, the protective mechanical ventilation strategies recommended by guidelines for acute respiratory distress syndrome can be reasonably applied in patients with severe CAP.

Novel pneumonia score based on a machine learning model for predicting mortality in pneumonia patients on admission to the intensive care unit

BACKGROUND

Scores for predicting the long-term mortality of severe pneumonia are lacking. The purpose of this study is to use machine learning methods to develop new pneumonia scores to predict the 1-year mortality and hospital mortality of pneumonia patients on admission to the intensive care unit (ICU).

METHODS

The study population was screened from the MIMIC-IV and eICU databases. The main outcomes evaluated were 1-year mortality and hospital mortality in the MIMIC-IV database and hospital mortality in the eICU database. From the full data set, we separated patients diagnosed with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) and ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) for subgroup analysis. We used common shallow machine learning algorithms, including logistic regression, decision tree, random forest, multilayer perceptron and XGBoost.

RESULTS

The full data set of the MIMIC-IV database contained 4697 patients, while that of the eICU database contained 13760 patients. We defined a new pneumonia score, the "Integrated CCI-APS", using a multivariate logistic regression model including six variables: metastatic solid tumor, Charlson Comorbidity Index, readmission, congestive heart failure, age, and Acute Physiology Score III. The area under the curve (AUC) and accuracy of the integrated CCI-APS were assessed in three data sets (full, CAP, and VAP) using both the test set derived from the MIMIC-IV database and the external validation set derived from the eICU database. The AUC value ranges in predicting 1-year and hospital mortality were 0.784-0.797 and 0.691-0.780, respectively, and the corresponding accuracy ranges were 0.723-0.725 and 0.641-0.718, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The main contribution of this study was a benchmark for using machine learning models to build pneumonia scores. Based on the idea of integrated learning, we propose a new integrated CCI-APS score for severe pneumonia. In the prediction of 1-year mortality and hospital mortality, our new pneumonia score outperformed the existing score.

CD4+ T cells related to disease severity in elderly and frailty community-acquired pneumonia patients: A retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUNDS

Elderly and frailty individuals show a more senescent immune system, which may relate to worse outcome in community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). This study aimed to explore prognostic factors related to immune.

METHODS

Sixty of elderly (≥65 years) and frailty (clinical frailty scale ≥5 scores) nonsevere CAP patients and 60 severe CAP (SCAP) patients were recruited at our center. Clinical and laboratory data, and several assessment scores were collected.

RESULTS

Compared with nonsevere CAP group, the elderly and frailty SCAP patients showed higher level of BMI, PaCO2 and lactate in arterial blood-gas, CURB-65 score, ICU admission, mechanical ventilation, shock accidence, and longer hospital stay using two-tailed t test. The SCAP group also showed increased CRP, IL-6, and PCT, and decreased CD3+ T cells, CD4+ T cells, and CD8+ T cells. Logistic regression analysis showed that CD4+ T cells, IL-6 and PCT were independent prognostic factors for SCAP. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for CD4+ T cells combined with PCT was 0.771 (95% CI 0.683-0.859), and the sensitivity and specificity were both 76.7%. Paired t test analysis showed that low CD4+ T cells in SCAP patients increased after treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

CD4+ T cells decreased in elderly and frailty SCAP patients, and CD4+ T cells combined with PCT were relatively accurate in the prediction of elderly and frailty SCAP.

Development of a new prognostic index PNPI for prognosis prediction of CKD patients with pneumonia at hospital admission

Background

The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between pneumonia and chronic kidney disease (CKD), to elucidate potential risk factors, and to develop a new predictive model for the poor prognosis of pneumonia in CKD patients.

Method

We conducted a retrospective observational study of CKD patients admitted to Tongji Hospital between June 2012 and June 2022. Demographic information, comorbidities or laboratory tests were collected. Applying univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses, independent risk factors associated with a poor prognosis (i.e., respiratory failure, shock, combined other organ failure, and/or death during hospitalization) for pneumonia in CKD patients were discovered, with nomogram model subsequently developed. Predictive model was compared with other commonly used pneumonia severity scores.

Result

Of 3,193 CKD patients with pneumonia, 1,013 (31.7%) met the primary endpoint during hospitalization. Risk factors predicting poor prognosis of pneumonia in CKD patients were selected on the result of multivariate logistic regression models, including chronic cardiac disease; CKD stage; elevated neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and D-dimer; decreased platelets, PTA, and chloride iron; and significant symptom presence and GGO presentation on CT. The nomogram model outperformed other pneumonia severity indices with AUC of 0.82 (95% CI: 0.80, 0.84) in training set and 0.83 (95% CI: 0.80, 0.86) in testing set. In addition, calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA) proved its efficiency and adaptability.

Conclusion

We designed a clinical prediction model PNPI (pneumonia in nephropathy patients prognostic index) to assess the risk of poor prognosis in CKD patients with pneumonia, which may be generalized after more external validation.

Machine learning-based prediction of in-ICU mortality in pneumonia patients

Conventional severity-of-illness scoring systems have shown suboptimal performance for predicting in-intensive care unit (ICU) mortality in patients with severe pneumonia. This study aimed to develop and validate machine learning (ML) models for mortality prediction in patients with severe pneumonia. This retrospective study evaluated patients admitted to the ICU for severe pneumonia between January 2016 and December 2021. The predictive performance was analyzed by comparing the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AU-ROC) of ML models to that of conventional severity-of-illness scoring systems. Three ML models were evaluated: (1) logistic regression with L2 regularization, (2) gradient-boosted decision tree (LightGBM), and (3) multilayer perceptron (MLP). Among the 816 pneumonia patients included, 223 (27.3%) patients died. All ML models significantly outperformed the Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (AU-ROC: 0.650 [0.584-0.716] vs 0.820 [0.771-0.869] for logistic regression vs 0.827 [0.777-0.876] for LightGBM 0.838 [0.791-0.884] for MLP; P < 0.001). In the analysis for NRI, the LightGBM and MLP models showed superior reclassification compared with the logistic regression model in predicting in-ICU mortality in all length of stay in the ICU subgroups; all age subgroups; all subgroups with any APACHE II score, PaO₂/FiO₂ ratio < 200; all subgroups with or without history of respiratory disease; with or without history of CVA or dementia; treatment with mechanical ventilation, and use of inotropic agents. In conclusion, the ML models have excellent performance in predicting in-ICU mortality in patients with severe pneumonia. Moreover, this study highlights the potential advantages of selecting individual ML models for predicting in-ICU mortality in different subgroups.

The Diagnostic Value of Inflammatory Markers (CRP, IL6, CRP/IL6, CRP/L, LCR) for Assessing the Severity of COVID-19 Symptoms Based on the MEWS and Predicting the Risk of Mortality

Introduction

Various diagnostic tools are used to assess the severity of COVID-19 symptoms and the risk of mortality, including laboratory tests and scoring indices such as the Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS). The diagnostic value of inflammatory markers for assessing patients with different severity of COVID-19 symptoms according to the MEWS was evaluated in this study.

Materials and Methods

The concentrations of CRP (C-reactive protein) (immunoassay) and IL6 (interleukin 6) (electrochemiluminescence assay) were determined, and CRP/IL6, CRP/L, and LCR ratios were calculated in blood serum samples collected from 374 COVID-19 patients.

Results

We demonstrated that CRP, IL6, CRP/IL6, CRP/L, LCR inflammatory markers increase significantly with disease progression assessed based on the MEWS in COVID-19 patients and may be used to differentiating patients with severe and non-severe COVID-19 and to assess the mortality.

Conclusion

The diagnostic value of inflammatory markers for assessing the risk of mortality and differentiating between patients with mild and severe COVID-19 was confirmed.

Acute organ injury and long-term sequelae of severe pneumococcal infections

Streptococcus pneumoniae (Spn) is a major public health problem, as it is a main cause of otitis media, community-acquired pneumonia, bacteremia, sepsis, and meningitis. Acute episodes of pneumococcal disease have been demonstrated to cause organ damage with lingering negative consequences. Cytotoxic products released by the bacterium, biomechanical and physiological stress resulting from infection, and the corresponding inflammatory response together contribute to organ damage accrued during infection. The collective result of this damage can be acutely life-threatening, but among survivors, it also contributes to the long-lasting sequelae of pneumococcal disease. These include the development of new morbidities or exacerbation of pre-existing conditions such as COPD, heart disease, and neurological impairments. Currently, pneumonia is ranked as the 9^th leading cause of death, but this estimate only considers short-term mortality and likely underestimates the true long-term impact of disease. Herein, we review the data that indicates damage incurred during acute pneumococcal infection can result in long-term sequelae which reduces quality of life and life expectancy among pneumococcal disease survivors.

The National Early Warning Score 2(NEWS2) to Predict Early Progression to Severe Community-Acquired Pneumonia

This study aimed to assess the predictive performance of the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) to identify the early progression to severe disease in patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). A prospective-cohort study was conducted among patients with CAP admitted to a university hospital between October 2020 and December 2021. The endpoint of interest was the progression to severe CAP, defined as the requirement for a mechanical ventilator, a vasopressor, or death within 72 h after hospital admission. Among 260 patients, 53 (25.6%) had early progression to severe CAP. The median NEWS2 of the early progression group was higher than that of the non-progression group [8 (6-9) vs. 7 (5-8), p = 0.015, respectively]. The AUROC of NEWS2 to predict early progression to severe CAP was 0.61 (95% CI: 0.52-0.70), while IDSA/ATS minor criteria ≥ 3 had AUROC 0.56 (95% CI 0.48-0.65). The combination of NEWS2 ≥ 8, albumin level < 3 g/dL and BUN ≥ 30 mg/dL improved AUROC from 0.61 to 0.71 (p = 0.015). NEWS2 and IDSA/ATS minor criteria showed fair predictive-accuracy in predicting progression to severe CAP. The NEWS2 cut-off ≥ 8 in combination with low albumin and uremia improved predictive-accuracy, and could be easily used in general practice.

Analysis of Risk Factors for Pneumonia Death in ICU Environment Based on Logistic Regression

Objective

To explore the risk and protect factors for death of pneumonia patients in intensive care unit (ICU), we conducted this logistic regression research.

Methods

We collected demographic and nursing care data for 80 patients form Wuhan fourth hospital, in which 40 patients were dead and the other 40 patients were alive. Difference analysis, Pearson's correlation matrix, and logistic regression were conducted to explore the risk and protective factors for living status of pneumonia patients in ICU.

Results

A total of 40 individuals were dead from pneumonia in ICU. The demographic and nursing information had no difference between death and living groups except age. After that, correlation analysis showed that there were correlations between living status, age, and marriage. Logistic regression showed that age (odds ratio (OR) = 0.94, P < 0.05) and no education (OR = 0.21, P < 0.05) may be harmful for pneumonia patients living status while high-quality nursing (OR = 2.72, P < 0.05) may be helpful for pneumonia patients living status.

Conclusion

High-quality care plays an important role in protecting the survival of patients with pneumonia, and old age and uneducated may be the risk factors for the death of patients with pneumonia.

Clinical profile analysis and nomogram for predicting in-hospital mortality among elderly severe community-acquired pneumonia patients with comorbid cardiovascular disease: a retrospective cohort study

Background

Researchers have linked cardiovascular disease (CVD) with advancing age; however, how it drives disease progression in elderly severe community acquired pneumonia (SCAP) patients is still unclear. This study aims to identify leading risk predictors of in-hospital mortality in elderly SCAP patients with CVD, and construct a comprehensive nomogram for providing personalized prediction.

Patients and methods

The study retrospectively enrolled 2365 elderly patients identified SCAP. Among them, 413 patients were found to have CVD. The LASSO regression and multivariate logistic regression analysis were utilized to select potential predictors of in-hospital mortality in elderly SCAP patients with CVD. By incorporating these features, a nomogram was then developed and subjected to internal validations. Discrimination, calibration, and clinical use of the nomogram were assessed via C-index, calibration curve analysis, and decision plot.

Results

Compared with patients without CVD, elderly SCAP patients with CVD had a significant poor outcome. Further analysis of the CVD population identified 7 independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality in elderly SCAP patients, including age, the use of vasopressor, numbers of primary symptoms, body temperature, monocyte, CRP and NLR. The nomogram model incorporated these 7 predictors showed sufficient predictive accuracy, with the C-index of 0.800 (95% CI 0.758–0.842). High C-index value of 0.781 was obtained in the internal validation via bootstrapping validation. Moreover, the calibration curve indicative a good consistency of risk prediction, and the decision curve manifested that the nomogram had good overall net benefits.

Conclusion

An integrated nomogram was developed to facilitate the personalized prediction of in-hospital mortality in elderly SCAP patients with CVD.

Association of Serum Albumin and Copeptin with Early Clinical Deterioration and Instability in Community-Acquired Pneumonia

Background: There is a paucity of data on biomarkers for the early deterioration and clinical instability of patients in community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), as treatment failure occurs in the first seven days in 90% of patients. Aim: To evaluate serum albumin and copeptin with CURB-65, PSI scoring and ATS/IDSA minor criteria for the prediction of early mortality or ICU-admission (7 days) and clinical instability after 72 h. Methods: In 100 consecutive hospitalized adult CAP patients, PSI-scores, CURB-65 scores, ATS/IDSA 2007 minor criteria, copeptin and albumin on admission were evaluated. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis was performed to assess independent risk factors for early combined mortality or ICU admission. Predictive powers of albumin and copeptin were tested with ROC curves and ICU-free survival probability was tested using Kaplan−Meier analysis. Results: Albumin was lower and copeptin higher in patients with short-term adverse outcomes (p < 0.05). Cox regression analysis showed that albumin [HR (95% CI): 0.41 (0.18−0.94, p = 0.034)] and copeptin [HR (95% CI): 1.94 (1.03−3.67, p = 0.042)] were independent risk factors for early combined mortality or ICU admission (7 days). The Kaplan−Meier analysis observed that high copeptin (>27.12 ng/mL) and low albumin levels (<2.85 g/dL) had a lower (p < 0.001) survival probability. The diagnostic accuracy of albumin was better than copeptin. The inclusion of albumin and copeptin into ATS/IDSA minor criteria significantly improved their predictive power. Conclusions: Both biomarkers serum albumin and copeptin can predict early deterioration and clinical instability in hospitalized CAP patients and increase the prognostic power of the traditional clinical scoring systems.

Comparison of the prognostic performance of the CURB-65 and a modified version of the pneumonia severity index designed to identify high-risk patients using the International Community-Acquired Pneumonia Collaboration Cohort

BACKGROUND

Although the PSI and CURB-65 represent well-validated prediction rules for pneumonia prognosis, PSI was designed to identify patients at low risk and CURB- 65 patients at high risk of mortality. We compared the prognostic performance of a modified version of the PSI designed to identify high-risk patients (i.e., PSI-HR) to CURB-65 in predicting short-term mortality.

METHODS

Using data from 6 pneumonia cohorts, we designed PSI-HR as a 6-class prediction rule using the original prognostic weights of all PSI variables and modifying the risk score thresholds to define risk classes. We calculated the proportion of low-risk and high-risk patients using CURB-65 and PSI-HR and 30-day mortality in these subgroups. We compared the rules' sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values for mortality at all risk class thresholds and assessed discriminatory power using areas under their receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs).

RESULTS

Among 13,874 patients with pneumonia, 1,036 (7.5%) died. For PSI-HR versus CURB-65, aggregate mortality was lower in low-risk patients (1.6% vs. 2.2%, p = 0.005) and higher in high-risk patients (36.5% vs. 32.2%, p = 0.27). PSI-HR had higher sensitivities than CURB-65 at all thresholds; PSI-HR also had higher specificities at the 3 lowest thresholds and specificities within 0.5% points of CURB-65 at the 2 highest thresholds. The AUROC was larger for PSI-HR than CURB- 65 (0.82 vs. 0.77, p < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

PSI-HR demonstrated superior prognostic accuracy to CURB-65 at the lower end of the severity spectrum and identified high-risk patients with nonsignificant higher short-term mortality at the higher end.

A machine learning model for predicting deterioration of COVID-19 inpatients

The COVID-19 pandemic has been spreading worldwide since December 2019, presenting an urgent threat to global health. Due to the limited understanding of disease progression and of the risk factors for the disease, it is a clinical challenge to predict which hospitalized patients will deteriorate. Moreover, several studies suggested that taking early measures for treating patients at risk of deterioration could prevent or lessen condition worsening and the need for mechanical ventilation. We developed a predictive model for early identification of patients at risk for clinical deterioration by retrospective analysis of electronic health records of COVID-19 inpatients at the two largest medical centers in Israel. Our model employs machine learning methods and uses routine clinical features such as vital signs, lab measurements, demographics, and background disease. Deterioration was defined as a high NEWS2 score adjusted to COVID-19. In the prediction of deterioration within the next 7–30 h, the model achieved an area under the ROC curve of 0.84 and an area under the precision-recall curve of 0.74. In external validation on data from a different hospital, it achieved values of 0.76 and 0.7, respectively.

A prediction rule for severe adverse events in all inpatients with community-acquired pneumonia: a multicenter observational study

Background

Prediction of inpatients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) at high risk for severe adverse events (SAEs) requiring higher-intensity treatment is critical. However, evidence regarding prediction rules applicable to all patients with CAP including those with healthcare-associated pneumonia (HCAP) is limited. The objective of this study is to develop and validate a new prediction system for SAEs in inpatients with CAP.

Methods

Logistic regression analysis was performed in 1334 inpatients of a prospective multicenter study to develop a multivariate model predicting SAEs (death, requirement of mechanical ventilation, and vasopressor support within 30 days after diagnosis). The developed ALL-COP-SCORE rule based on the multivariate model was validated in 643 inpatients in another prospective multicenter study.

Results

The ALL-COP SCORE rule included albumin (< 2 g/dL, 2 points; 2–3 g/dL, 1 point), white blood cell (< 4000 cells/μL, 3 points), chronic lung disease (1 point), confusion (2 points), PaO₂/F_IO₂ ratio (< 200 mmHg, 3 points; 200–300 mmHg, 1 point), potassium (≥ 5.0 mEq/L, 2 points), arterial pH (< 7.35, 2 points), systolic blood pressure (< 90 mmHg, 2 points), PaCO₂ (> 45 mmHg, 2 points), HCO₃⁻ (< 20 mmol/L, 1 point), respiratory rate (≥ 30 breaths/min, 1 point), pleural effusion (1 point), and extent of chest radiographical infiltration in unilateral lung (> 2/3, 2 points; 1/2–2/3, 1 point). Patients with 4–5, 6–7, and ≥ 8 points had 17%, 35%, and 52% increase in the probability of SAEs, respectively, whereas the probability of SAEs was 3% in patients with ≤ 3 points. The ALL-COP SCORE rule exhibited a higher area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.85) compared with the other predictive models, and an ALL-COP SCORE threshold of ≥ 4 points exhibited 92% sensitivity and 60% specificity.

Conclusions

ALL-COP SCORE rule can be useful to predict SAEs and aid in decision-making on treatment intensity for all inpatients with CAP including those with HCAP. Higher-intensity treatment should be considered in patients with CAP and an ALL-COP SCORE threshold of ≥ 4 points.

Trial registration

This study was registered with the University Medical Information Network in Japan, registration numbers UMIN000003306 and UMIN000009837.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12890-022-01819-0.

Community-acquired pneumonia

Community-acquired pneumonia is not usually considered a high-priority problem by the public, although it is responsible for substantial mortality, with a third of patients dying within 1 year after being discharged from hospital for pneumoniae. Although up to 18% of patients with community-acquired pneumonia who were hospitalised (admitted to hospital and treated there) have at least one risk factor for immunosuppression worldwide, strong evidence on community-acquired pneumonia management in this population is scarce. Several features of clinical management for community-acquired pneumonia should be addressed to reduce mortality, morbidity, and complications related to community-acquired pneumonia in patients who are immunocompetent and patients who are immunocompromised. These features include rapid diagnosis, microbiological investigation, prevention and management of complications (eg, respiratory failure, sepsis, and multiorgan failure), empirical antibiotic therapy in accordance with patient's risk factors and local microbiological epidemiology, individualised antibiotic therapy according to microbiological data, appropriate outcomes for therapeutic switch from parenteral to oral antibiotics, discharge planning, and long-term follow-up. This Seminar offers an updated view on community-acquired pneumonia in adults, with suggestions for clinical and translational research.

[Management of Adult Community-Acquired Pneumonia and Prevention - Update 2021 - Guideline of the German Respiratory Society (DGP), the Paul-Ehrlich-Society for Chemotherapy (PEG), the German Society for Infectious Diseases (DGI), the German Society of Medical Intensive Care and Emergency Medicine (DGIIN), the German Viological Society (DGV), the Competence Network CAPNETZ, the German College of General Practitioneers and Family Physicians (DEGAM), the German Society for Geriatric Medicine (DGG), the German Palliative Society (DGP), the Austrian Society of Pneumology Society (ÖGP), the Austrian Society for Infectious and Tropical Diseases (ÖGIT), the Swiss Respiratory Society (SGP) and the Swiss Society for Infectious Diseases Society (SSI)]

The present guideline provides a new and updated concept of the management of adult patients with community-acquired pneumonia. It replaces the previous guideline dating from 2016.The guideline was worked out and agreed on following the standards of methodology of a S3-guideline. This includes a systematic literature search and grading, a structured discussion of recommendations supported by the literature as well as the declaration and assessment of potential conflicts of interests.The guideline has a focus on specific clinical circumstances, an update on severity assessment, and includes recommendations for an individualized selection of antimicrobial treatment.The recommendations aim at the same time at a structured assessment of risk for adverse outcome as well as an early determination of treatment goals in order to reduce mortality in patients with curative treatment goal and to provide palliation for patients with treatment restrictions.

Evaluation of severity scoring systems in patients with severe community acquired pneumonia

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to evaluate the ability of severity scoring systems to predict 30-day mortality in patients with severe community-acquired pneumonia.

METHODS

The study included 98 patients aged ≥18 years with community acquired pneumonia hospitalized at the Intensive Care Unit of the University Clinic for Infectious Diseases in Skopje, Republic of North Macedonia, during a 3-year period. We recorded demographic, clinical and common biochemical parameters. Five severity scores were calculated at admission: CURB 65 (Confusion, Urea, Respiratory Rate, Blood pressure, Age ≥65 years), SCAP (Severe Community Acquired Pneumonia score), SAPS II (Simplified Acute Physiology Score), SOFA (Sequential Organ Failure Assessment Score) and MPM (Mortality Prediction Model). Primary outcome variable was 30-day in-hospital mortality.

RESULTS

The mean age of the patients was 59.08 ± 15.76 years, predominantly males (68%). The overall 30-day mortality was 52%. Charlson Comorbidity index was increased in non-survivors (3.72 ± 2.33) and was associated with the outcome. All severity indexes had higher values in patients who died, that showed statistical significance between the analysed groups. The areas under curve (AUC) values of the five scores for 30-day mortality were 0.670, 0.732, 0,726, 0.785 and 0.777, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Widely used severity scores accurately detected patients with pneumonia that had increased risk for poor outcome, but none of them individually demonstrated any advantage over the others.

Association between body mass index and mortality in hospitalised patients with community-acquired pneumonia

The obesity paradox postulates that increased body mass index (BMI) is protective in certain patient populations. We aimed to investigate the association of BMI and different weight classes with outcomes in hospitalised patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). This cohort study is a secondary data analysis of the University of Louisville Pneumonia Study database, a prospective study of hospitalised adult patients with CAP from June, 2014, to May, 2016, in Louisville, KY, USA. BMI as a predictor was assessed both as a continuous and categorical variable. Patients were categorised as weight classes based on World Health Organization definitions: BMI of <18.5 kg·m^-2 (underweight), BMI of 18.5 to <25 kg·m^-2 (normal weight), BMI of 25.0 to <30 kg·m^-2 (overweight), BMI of 30 to <35 kg·m^-2 (obesity class I), BMI of 35 to <40 kg·m^-2 (obesity class II), and BMI of ≥40 kg·m^-2 (obesity class III). Study outcomes, including time to clinical stability, length of stay, clinical failure and mortality, were assessed in hospital, at 30 days, at 6 months and at 1 year. Clinical failure was defined as the need for noninvasive ventilation, invasive ventilation or vasopressors within 1 week of admission. Patient characteristics and crude outcomes were stratified by BMI categories, and generalised additive binomial regression models were performed to analyse the impact of BMI as a continuous variable on study outcomes adjusting for possible confounding variables. 7449 patients were included in the study. Median time to clinical stability was 2 days for every BMI group. There was no association between BMI as a continuous predictor and length of stay <5 days (chi-squared=1.83, estimated degrees of freedom (EDF)=2.74, p=0.608). Clinical failure was highest in the class III obesity group, and higher BMI as a continuous predictor was associated with higher odds of clinical failure. BMI as a continuous predictor was significantly associated with 30-day (chi-squared=39.97, EDF=3.07, p<0.001), 6-month (chi-squared=89.42, EDF=3.44, p<0.001) and 1-year (chi-squared=83.97, EDF=2.89, p<0.001) mortalities. BMI ≤24.14 kg·m^-2 was a risk factor whereas BMI ≥26.97 kg·m^-2 was protective for mortality at 1-year. The incremental benefit of increasing BMI plateaued at 35 kg·m^-2. We found a protective benefit of obesity on mortality in CAP patients. However, we uniquely demonstrate that the association between BMI and mortality is not linear, and no incremental benefit of increasing BMI levels is observed in those with obesity classes II and III.

Clinical Policy: Critical Issues in the Management of Adult Patients Presenting to the Emergency Department With Community-Acquired Pneumonia

This clinical policy from the American College of Emergency Physicians is a revision of the 2009 "Clinical Policy: Critical Issues in the Management of Adult Patients Presenting to the Emergency Department With Community-Acquired Pneumonia." A writing subcommittee conducted a systematic review of the literature to derive evidence-based recommendations to answer the following clinical questions: (1) In the adult emergency department patient diagnosed with community-acquired pneumonia, what clinical decision aids can inform the determination of patient disposition? (2) In the adult emergency department patient with community-acquired pneumonia, what biomarkers can be used to direct initial antimicrobial therapy? (3) In the adult emergency department patient diagnosed with community-acquired pneumonia, does a single dose of parenteral antibiotics in the emergency department followed by oral treatment versus oral treatment alone improve outcomes? Evidence was graded and recommendations were made based on the strength of the available data.

Role of the inflammatory response in community-acquired pneumonia: clinical implications

INTRODUCTION

Despite adequate antibiotic coverage, community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) remains a leading cause of hospitalization and mortality worldwide. It induces both a local pulmonary and a systemic inflammatory response, particularly significant in severe cases. The intensity of the dysregulated host response varies from patient to patient and has a negative impact on survival and other outcomes.

AREAS COVERED

This comprehensive review summarizes the pathophysiological aspects of the inflammatory response in CAP, briefly discusses the usefulness of biomarkers, and assesses the clinical evidence for modulating the inflammatory pathways. We searched PubMed for the most relevant studies, reviews, and meta-analysis until August 2020.

EXPERT OPINION

Notable efforts have been made to identify biomarkers that can accurately differentiate between viral and bacterial etiology, and indeed, to enhance risk stratification in CAP. However, none has proven ideal and no recommended biomarker-guided algorithms exist. Biomarker signatures from proteomic and metabolomic studies could be more useful for such assessments. To date, most studies have produced contradictory results concerning the role of immunomodulatory agents (e.g. corticosteroids, macrolides, and statins) in CAP. Adequately identifying the population who may benefit most from effective modulation of the inflammatory response remains a challenge.

Clinical and financial burden of hospitalised community-acquired pneumonia in patients with selected underlying comorbidities in England

Background

Hospitalised pneumonia may have long-term clinical and financial impact in adult patients with underlying comorbidities.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective cohort study using the Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) database to determine the clinical and financial burden over 3 years of hospitalised community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) to England’s National Health Service (NHS). Subjects were adults with six underlying comorbidities (chronic heart disease (CHD); chronic kidney disease (CKD); chronic liver disease (CLD); chronic respiratory disease (CRD); diabetes mellitus (DM) and post bone marrow transplant (post-BMT)) with an inpatient admission in 2012/2013. Patients with CAP in 2013/2014 were followed for 3 years and compared with similarly aged, propensity score-matched adults with the same comorbidity without CAP.

Findings

The RR of hospital admissions increased after CAP, ranging from 1.08 (95% CI 1.04 to 1.12) for CKD to 1.38 (95% CI 1.35 to 1.40) for CRD. This increase was maintained for at least 2 years. Mean difference in hospital healthcare costs (£) was higher for CAP patients in 2013/2014; ranging from £1115 for DM to £8444 for BMT, and remained higher for 4/6 groups for 2 more years, ranging from £1907 (95% CI £1573 to £2240) for DM to £11 167 (95% CI £10 847 to £11 486) for CRD.) The OR for mortality was significantly higher for at least 3 years after CAP, ranging from 4.76 (95% CI 4.12 to 5.51, p<0.0001) for CLD to 7.50 (95%CI 4.71 to 11.92, p<0.0001) for BMT.

Interpretation

For patients with selected underlying comorbidities, healthcare utilisation, costs and mortality increase for at least 3 years after being hospitalised CAP.

The utility of MEWS for predicting the mortality in the elderly adults with COVID-19: a retrospective cohort study with comparison to other predictive clinical scores

Background

Older adults have been reported to be a population with high-risk of death in the COVID-19 outbreak. Rapid detection of high-risk patients is crucial to reduce mortality in this population. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognositc accuracy of the Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) for in-hospital mortality in older adults with COVID-19.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study was conducted in Wuhan Hankou Hospital in China from 1 January 2020 to 29 February 2020. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to evaluate the predictive value of MEWS, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II), Sequential Organ Function Assessment (SOFA), quick Sequential Organ Function Assessment (qSOFA), Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI), Combination of Confusion, Urea, Respiratory Rate, Blood Pressure, and Age ≥65 (CURB-65), and the Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome Criteria (SIRS) for in-hospital mortality. Logistic regression models were performed to detect the high-risk older adults with COVID-19.

Results

Among the 235 patients included in this study, 37 (15.74%) died and 131 (55.74%) were male, with an average age of 70.61 years (SD 8.02). ROC analysis suggested that the capacity of MEWS in predicting in-hospital mortality was as good as the APACHE II, SOFA, PSI and qSOFA (Difference in AUROC: MEWS vs. APACHE II, -0.025 (95% CI [-0.075 to 0.026]); MEWS vs. SOFA, -0.013 (95% CI [-0.049 to 0.024]); MEWS vs. PSI, -0.015 (95% CI [-0.065 to 0.035]); MEWS vs. qSOFA, 0.024 (95% CI [-0.029 to 0.076]), all P > 0.05), but was significantly higher than SIRS and CURB-65 (Difference in AUROC: MEWS vs. SIRS, 0.218 (95% CI [0.156-0.279]); MEWS vs. CURB-65, 0.064 (95% CI [0.002-0.125]), all P < 0.05). Logistic regression models implied that the male patients (≥75 years) had higher risk of death than the other older adults (estimated coefficients: 1.16, P = 0.044). Our analysis further suggests that the cut-off points of the MEWS score for the male patients (≥75 years) subpopulation and the other elderly patients should be 2.5 and 3.5, respectively.

Conclusions

MEWS is an efficient tool for rapid assessment of elderly COVID-19 patients. MEWS has promising performance in predicting in-hospital mortality and identifying the high-risk group in elderly patients with COVID-19.

Could Xuebijing Injection Reduce the Mortality of Severe Pneumonia Patients? A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

METHODS

Databases including PubMed, Cochrane Library, Web of Science, Embase, CNKI, WanFang, and VIP were searched, from inception to February 2020, to identify randomized controlled trials (RCTs) about XBJ combined with western medicine treatment in treating severe pneumonia. Literature screening, data extraction, and methodological quality assessment were carried out by two researchers back-to-back. RevMan 5.3 software was used for statistical analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 21 articles involving 2072 patients were included. The meta-analysis showed that treatment combined with XBJ has better efficiency compared with western medicine treatment alone. It could also decrease 28-day mortality; shorten the length of intensive care unit (ICU) stay time and mechanical ventilation time; and reduce the levels of C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT), white blood cell (WBC), tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), interleukin-6 (IL-6), and D-dimer in the serum of patients. The incidence of adverse reactions did not increase significantly.

CONCLUSION

XBJ combined with western medicine treatment has significant clinical efficacy and no obvious adverse reactions. A dose of 100 ml bid is recommended to reduce 28-day mortality. The conclusion needs to be further verified with larger-sample size and higher-quality RCTs.

XueBiJing Injection Versus Placebo for Critically Ill Patients With Severe Community-Acquired Pneumonia: A Randomized Controlled Trial

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text.

Objectives:

To investigate whether XueBiJing injection improves clinical outcomes in critically ill patients with severe community-acquired pneumonia.

Design:

Prospective, randomized, controlled study.

Setting:

Thirty-three hospitals in China.

Patients:

A total of 710 adults 18–75 years old with severe community-acquired pneumonia.

Interventions:

Participants in the XueBiJing group received XueBiJing, 100 mL, q12 hours, and the control group received a visually indistinguishable placebo.

Measurements and Main Results:

The primary outcome was 8-day improvement in the pneumonia severity index risk rating. Secondary outcomes were 28-day mortality rate, duration of mechanical ventilation and total duration of ICU stay. Improvement in the pneumonia severity index risk rating, from a previously defined endpoint, occurred in 203 (60.78%) participants receiving XueBiJing and in 158 (46.33%) participants receiving placebo (between-group difference [95% CI], 14.4% [6.9–21.8%]; p < 0.001). Fifty-three (15.87%) XueBiJing recipients and 84 (24.63%) placebo recipients (8.8% [2.4–15.2%]; p = 0.006) died within 28 days. XueBiJing administration also decreased the mechanical ventilation time and the total ICU stay duration. The median mechanical ventilation time was 11.0 versus 16.5 days for the XueBiJing and placebo groups, respectively (p = 0.012). The total duration of ICU stay was 12 days for XueBiJing recipients versus 16 days for placebo recipients (p = 0.004). A total of 256 patients experienced adverse events (119 [35.63%] vs 137 [40.18%] in the XueBiJing and placebo groups, respectively [p = 0.235]).

Conclusions:

In critically ill patients with severe community-acquired pneumonia, XueBiJing injection led to a statistically significant improvement in the primary endpoint of the pneumonia severity index as well a significant improvement in the secondary clinical outcomes of mortality, duration of mechanical ventilation and duration of ICU stay.

Prognostic Prediction Value of qSOFA, SOFA, and Admission Lactate in Septic Patients with Community-Acquired Pneumonia in Emergency Department

Background

Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is a leading cause of sepsis and common presentation to emergency department (ED) with a high mortality rate. The prognostic prediction value of sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) and quick SOFA (qSOFA) scores in CAP in ED has not been validated in detail. The aim of this research is to investigate the prognostic prediction value of SOFA, qSOFA, and admission lactate compared with that of other commonly used severity scores (CURB65, CRB65, and PSI) in septic patients with CAP in ED.

Methods

Adult septic patients with CAP admitted between Jan. 2017 and Jan. 2019 with increased admission SOFA ≥ 2 from baseline were enrolled. The primary outcome was 28-day mortality. The secondary outcome included intensive care unit (ICU) admission, mechanical ventilation, and vasopressor use. Prognostic prediction performance of the parameters above was compared using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Kaplan–Meier survival curves were compared using optimal cutoff values of qSOFA and admission lactate.

Results

Among the 336 enrolled septic patients with CAP, 89 patients died and 247 patients survived after 28-day follow-up. The CURB65, CRB65, PSI, SOFA, qSOFA, and admission lactate levels were statistically significantly higher in the death group (P < 0.001). qSOFA and SOFA were superior and the combination of qSOFA + lactate and SOFA + lactate outperformed other combinations of severity score and admission lactate in predicting both primary and secondary outcomes. Patients with admission qSOFA < 2 or lactate ≤ 2 mmol/L showed significantly prolonged survival than those patients with qSOFA ≥ 2 or lactate > 2 mmol/L (log-rank χ² = 59.825, P < 0.001). The prognostic prediction performance of the combination of qSOFA and admission lactate was comparable to the full version of SOFA (AUROC 0.833 vs. 0.795, Z = 1.378, P=0.168 in predicting 28-day mortality; AUROC 0.868 vs. 0.895, Z = 1.022, P=0.307 in predicting ICU admission; AUROC 0.868 vs. 0.845, Z = 0.921, P=0.357 in predicting mechanical ventilation; AUROC 0.875 vs. 0.821, Z = 2.12, P=0.034 in predicting vasopressor use).

Conclusion

qSOFA and SOFA were superior to CURB65, CRB65, and PSI in predicting 28-day mortality, ICU admission, mechanical ventilation, and vasopressor use for septic patients with CAP in ED. Admission qSOFA with lactate is a convenient and useful predictor. Admission qSOFA ≥ 2 or lactate > 2 mmol/L would be very helpful in discriminating high-risk patients with a higher mortality rate.

Diagnosis and Treatment of Adults with Community-acquired Pneumonia. An Official Clinical Practice Guideline of the American Thoracic Society and Infectious Diseases Society of America

Background: This document provides evidence-based clinical practice guidelines on the management of adult patients with community-acquired pneumonia.

Methods: A multidisciplinary panel conducted pragmatic systematic reviews of the relevant research and applied Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation methodology for clinical recommendations.

Results: The panel addressed 16 specific areas for recommendations spanning questions of diagnostic testing, determination of site of care, selection of initial empiric antibiotic therapy, and subsequent management decisions. Although some recommendations remain unchanged from the 2007 guideline, the availability of results from new therapeutic trials and epidemiological investigations led to revised recommendations for empiric treatment strategies and additional management decisions.

Conclusions: The panel formulated and provided the rationale for recommendations on selected diagnostic and treatment strategies for adult patients with community-acquired pneumonia.

Community-Acquired Pneumonia. Spanish Society of Pulmonology and Thoracic Surgery (SEPAR) Guidelines. 2020 Update

The guidelines for community-acquired pneumonia, last published in 2010, have been updated to provide recommendations based on a critical summary of the latest literature to help health professionals make the best decisions in the care of immunocompetent adult patients. The methodology was based on 6 PICO questions (on etiological studies, assessment of severity and decision to hospitalize, antibiotic treatment and duration, and pneumococcal conjugate vaccination), agreed by consensus among a working group of pulmonologists and an expert in documentation science and methodology. A comprehensive review of the literature was performed for each PICO question, and these were evaluated in in-person meetings. The American Thoracic Society guidelines were published during the preparation of this paper, so the recommendations of this association were also evaluated. We concluded that the etiological source of the infection should be investigated in hospitalized patients who have suspected resistance or who fail to respond to treatment. Prognostic scales, such as PSI, CURB 65, and CRB65, are useful for assessing severity and the decision to hospitalize. Different antibiotic regimens are indicated, depending on the treatment setting - outpatient, hospital, or intensive care unit - and the resistance of PES microorganisms should be calculated. The minimum duration of antibiotic treatment should be 5 days, based on criteria of clinical stability. Finally, we reviewed the indication of the 13-valent conjugate vaccine in immunocompetent patients with risk factors and comorbidity.

Prognostic value of blood pressure drops during the first 24 h after hospital admission for risk stratification of community-acquired pneumonia: a retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

Current risk stratification in community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) does not incorporate the dynamic nature of CAP evolution. Study aim was to evaluate the predictive value of early blood pressure (BP) drop and its consideration within the CRB-65 score.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study including consecutive adult hospitalized CAP patients 2013-2014 without documented treatment limitations or direct ICU admission. The CRB-65 score was calculated initially and re-calculated including any BP below the threshold (BP drop) within the first 24 h (CRB-65[BP24]). The primary endpoint was need for mechanical ventilation or vasopressors (MVVS) occurring after 24 h. Prognostic values were evaluated by uni- and multivariate and ROC curve analyses.

RESULTS

28/294 patients (9.5%) met the primary endpoint. Only 3 (11%) of them showed an initial BP of < 90 mmHg systolic or ≤ 60 mmHg diastolic, but 21 (75%) developed a BP drop within the first 24 h. 24/178 (13%) with and only 4/116 (3%) without any low BP during the first 24 h needed MVVS (p = 0.004). After multivariate analysis, the predictive value of BP drop was independent of other score parameters and biomarkers (all p < 0.01). In ROC analysis, the new CRB-65(BP24) showed a better prediction than the CRB-65 score (AUC 0.69 vs. 0.62, p = 0.04). 7/13 patients (54%) with MVVS despite an admission CRB-65 of 0 or 1 showed a BP drop.

CONCLUSIONS

In the evaluated cohort, BP drop within the first 24 h was significantly associated with more need for MVVS in CAP, and its consideration improved the prognostic value of the CRB-65 score.

The impact of certain underlying comorbidities on the risk of developing hospitalised pneumonia in England

Background

UK specific data on the risk of developing hospitalised CAP for patients with underlying comorbidities is lacking. This study compared the likelihood of hospitalised all-cause community acquired pneumonia (CAP) in patients with certain high-risk comorbidities and a comparator group with no known risk factors for pneumococcal disease.

Methods

This retrospective cohort study interrogated data in the Hospital Episodes Statistics (HES) dataset between financial years 2012/13 and 2016/17. In total 3,078,623 patients in England (aged ≥18 years) were linked to their hospitalisation records. This included 2,950,910 individuals with defined risk groups and a comparator group of 127,713 people who had undergone tooth extraction with none of the risk group diagnoses. Risk groups studied were chronic respiratory disease (CRD), chronic heart disease (CHD), chronic liver disease (CLD), chronic kidney disease (CKD), diabetes (DM) and post bone marrow transplant (BMT). The patients were tracked forward from year 0 (2012/13) to Year 3 (2016/17) and all diagnoses of hospitalised CAP were recorded. A Logistic regression model compared odds of developing hospitalised CAP for patients in risk groups compared to healthy controls. The model was simultaneously adjusted for age, sex, strategic heath authority (SHA), index of multiple deprivation (IMD), ethnicity, and comorbidity. To account for differing comorbidity profiles between populations the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) was applied. The model estimated odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals of developing hospitalised CAP for each specified clinical risk group.

Results

Patients within all the risk groups studied were more likely to develop hospitalised CAP than patients in the comparator group. The odds ratios varied between underlying conditions ranging from 1.18 (95% CI 1.13, 1.23) for those with DM to 5.48 (95% CI 5.28, 5.70) for those with CRD.

Conclusions

Individuals with any of 6 pre-defined underlying comorbidities are at significantly increased risk of developing hospitalised CAP compared to those with no underlying comorbid condition. Since the likelihood varies by risk group it should be possible to target patients with each of these underlying comorbidities with the most appropriate preventative measures, including immunisations.

Stratified and prognostic value of admission lactate and severity scores in patients with community-acquired pneumonia in emergency department: A single-center retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is a potentially life-threatening condition. The aim of this study is to investigate the stratified and prognostic value of admission lactate and severity scores (confusion, urea >7 mmol/L, respiratory rate ≥30/min, blood pressure <90 mm Hg systolic and/or ≤60 mm Hg diastolic, and age ≥65 years [CURB65], pneumonia severity index [PSI], sequential organ failure assessment [SOFA], qSOFA) in patients with CAP in emergency department.

METHODS

Adult patients diagnosed with CAP admitted between January 2017 and January 2019 were enrolled and divided into severe CAP (SCAP) group and nonSCAP (NSCAP) group according to international guidelines, death group, and survival group according to 28-day prognosis. Predicting performance of parameters above was compared using receiver operating characteristic curves and logistic regression model. Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to identify variables independently associated with 28-day mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 350 patients with CAP were enrolled. About 196 patients were classified as SCAP and 74 patients died after a 28-day follow-up. The levels of CURB65, PSI, SOFA, qSOFA, and admission lactate were higher in the SCAP group and death group. SOFA showed advantage in predicting SCAP, while qSOFA is superior in predicting 28-day mortality. The combination of SOFA and admission lactate outperformed other combinations in predicting SCAP, and the combination of qSOFA and lactate showed highest superiority over other combinations in predicting 28-day mortality.

CONCLUSION

The SOFA is a valuable predictor for SCAP and qSOFA is superior in predicting 28-day mortality. Combination of qSOFA and admission lactate can improve the predicting performance of single qSOFA.

Prognostic and Pathogenic Role of Angiopoietin-1 and -2 in Pneumonia

RATIONALE

During pneumonia, pathogen-host interaction evokes inflammation and lung barrier dysfunction. Tie2 activation by angiopoietin-1 reduces, whereas Tie2 blockade by angiopoietin-2 increases, inflammation and permeability during sepsis. The role of angiopoietin-1/-2 in pneumonia remains unidentified.

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the prognostic and pathogenic impact of angiopoietins in regulating pulmonary vascular barrier function and inflammation in bacterial pneumonia.

METHODS

Serum angiopoietin levels were quantified in pneumonia patients of two independent cohorts (n = 148, n = 395). Human postmortem lung tissue, pneumolysin- or angiopoietin-2-stimulated endothelial cells, isolated perfused and ventilated mouse lungs, and mice with pneumococcal pneumonia were investigated.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

In patients with pneumonia, decreased serum angiopoietin-1 and increased angiopoietin-2 levels were observed as compared with healthy subjects. Higher angiopoietin-2 serum levels were found in patients with community-acquired pneumonia who died within 28 days of diagnosis compared with survivors. Receiver operating characteristic analysis revealed improved prognostic accuracy of CURB-65 for 28-day survival, intensive care treatment, and length of hospital stay if combined with angiopoietin-2 serum levels. In vitro, pneumolysin enhanced endothelial angiopoietin-2 release, angiopoietin-2 increased endothelial permeability, and angiopoietin-1 reduced pneumolysin-evoked endothelial permeability. Ventilated and perfused lungs of mice with angiopoietin-2 knockdown showed reduced permeability on pneumolysin stimulation. Increased pulmonary angiopoietin-2 and reduced angiopoietin-1 mRNA expression were observed in Streptococcus pneumoniae-infected mice. Finally, angiopoietin-1 therapy reduced inflammation and permeability in murine pneumonia.

CONCLUSIONS

These data suggest a central role of angiopoietin-1/-2 in pneumonia-evoked inflammation and permeability. Increased angiopoietin-2 serum levels predicted mortality and length of hospital stay, and angiopoietin-1 may provide a therapeutic target for severe pneumonia.

Optimal approaches to preventing severe community-acquired pneumonia

Introduction: Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) has the highest rate of mortality of all infectious diseases, especially among the elderly. Severe CAP (sCAP) is defined as a CAP in which intensive care management is required and is associated with an unfavorable clinical course. Areas covered: This review aims to identify prevention strategies for reducing the incidence of CAP and optimized management of sCAP. We highlight the main prevention approaches for CAP, focusing on the latest vaccination plans and on the influence of health-risk behaviors. Lastly, we report the latest recommendations about the optimal approach for sCAP when CAP has already been diagnosed, including prompt admission to ICU, early empirical antibiotic therapy, and optimization of antibiotic use. Expert opinion: Despite improvements in the diagnosis and treatment of sCAP, more efforts are needed to combat preventable causes, including the implementation and improvement of vaccine coverage, anti-tobacco campaigns and correct oral hygiene. Moreover, future research should aim to assess the benefits of early antimicrobial therapy in primary care. Pharmacokinetic studies in the target population may help clinicians to adjust dosage regimens in critically ill patients with CAP and thus reduce rates of treatment failure.

Predicting the need for ICU admission in community-acquired pneumonia

BACKGROUND

Multiple criteria have been proposed to define community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) severity and predict ICU admission. Validity studies have found differing results. We tested four models to assess severe CAP built upon the criteria included in the 2007 IDSA/ATS guidelines, hypothesizing that a model providing different weights for each individual criterion may be of better predictability.

METHODS

Retrospective analysis of a prospective cohort study of adult hospitalizations for CAP at nine hospitals in Louisville, KY from June 2014 to May 2016. Four models were tested. Model 1: original 2007 IDSA/ATS criteria. Model 2: modified IDSA/ATS criteria by removing multilobar infiltrates and changing BUN threshold to ≥30 mg/dL; adding lactate level >2 mmol/L and requirement of non-invasive mechanical ventilation (NIMV). CAP was severe with 1 major criterion or 3 minor criteria. Model 3: same criteria as model 2, CAP was severe with 1 major criterion or 4 minor criteria. Model 4: multiple regression analysis including the modified criteria as described in models 2 and 3 with a score assigned to each variable according to the magnitude of association between variable and need for ICU.

RESULTS

8284 CAP hospitalizations were included. 1458 (18%) required ICU. Model 4 showed highest prediction of need for ICU with an area under the curve of 0.91, highest accuracy, specificity, positive predictive value, and agreement among models.

CONCLUSION

Assigning differential weights to clinical predictive variables generated a score with accuracy that outperformed the original 2007 IDSA/ATS criteria for severe CAP and ICU admission.

Viral prevalence, clinical profiles and comparison of severity scores for predicting the mortality of adults with severe acute respiratory infections

Background/aim

The aim of this study was to determine the accuracy of severity scores for predicting the 28-day mortality among adults with severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) admitted to the emergency department.

Materials and methods

This study included 159 consecutive adult patients with SARI admitted to the emergency department of a tertiary hospital. A standard form was filled out in order to record demographic information, clinical parameters, laboratory tests, and radiographic findings of the patients. CURB-65, PSI, SIRS, qSOFA, SOFA and APACHE II scores were compared between the survivor and nonsurvivor groups.

Results

Of 159 patients included in the study, 38.4% were positive for respiratory viruses and 28.3% were positive for influenza viruses. 35.8% of the patients were admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU) and the mortality rate was 36.5%. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of CURB-65, PSI, SIRS criteria, qSOFA, SOFA and APACHE II scores were 0.717, 0.712, 0.607, 0.683, 0.755, and 0.748, respectively in predicting mortality and 0.759, 0.744, 0.583, 0.728, 0.741, and 0.731, respectively in predicting ICU admission.

Conclusion

SOFA and APACHE II were more accurate than SIRS in predicting the 28-day mortality among adults with SARI. There was no significant difference among these scores in terms of other multivariate comparisons.

Point of Care eGFR and the Prediction of Outcomes in Pneumonia

Pneumonia is a leading cause of mortality. Severity-assessment scores in pneumonia guide treatment crucially, but the ones currently in existence are limited in their use. Community-based studies demonstrated the association between pre-existing low estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and outcomes in pneumonia. However, whether a single emergency department-eGFR measurement could predict outcomes in pneumonia remains unclear. This retrospective cohort study included 1554 patients hospitalized with pneumonia. The predictor was the first eGFR measurement. Outcomes included mortality, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, durations of hospital and ICU stay, and ventilator use. Receiver operating characteristic curves was used to determine optimal cutoff values to predict mortality. Of 1554 patients, 263 had chronic kidney disease, demonstrated higher C-reactive protein and SMART-COP scores, and had more multilobar pneumonia, acute kidney injury, ICU admission, and mortality. Patients with higher pneumonia severity scores tended to have lower eGFR. For predicting in-hospital mortality, the optimal eGFR cutoff value was 56 mL/min/1.73 m². eGFR < 56 mL/min/1.73 m² had an odds ratio of 2.5 (95% confidence interval, 1.6–4.0) for mortality by multivariate logistic regression. In Conclusion, eGFR < 56 mL/min/1.73 m² is an independent predictor of mortality, indicating that even mild renal impairment affects the outcome of pneumonia adversely.

Circulating sphingosine-1-phosphate as a prognostic biomarker for community-acquired pneumonia

Early determination of the severity of Community-Acquired Pneumonia (CAP) is essential for better disease prognosis. Current predictors are suboptimal, and their clinical utility remains to be defined, highlighting the need for developing biomarkers with efficacious prognostic value. Sphingosine-1-phosphate (S1P) is a bioactive sphingolipid with a documented regulatory role in immune defense and maintenance of endothelial barrier integrity. For early diagnose of CAP and recognition of severe CAP patients, we conduct this pilot study to access the potential utility of the circulating S1P in an Emergency department setting. In the prospective study, plasma S1P levels were quantified in healthy controls and patients with CAP. Also, their discriminating power was assessed by receiver operating characteristic analysis. The association between S1P levels and disease severity indices was assessed by Spearman correlation and logistic regression tests. Patients with CAP had significantly higher plasma S1P levels than healthy individuals (CAP: 27.54 ng/ml, IQR = 14.37–49.99 ng/ml; Controls: 10.58 ng/ml, IQR = 4.781–18.91 ng/ml; p < 0.0001). S1P levels were inversely correlated with disease severity in patients with CAP. Based on multivariate logistic regression analysis, the plasma S1P concentrations showed significant predicting power for mortality (OR: 0.909; CI: 0.801–0.985; p < 0.05), intensive care unit admission (OR: 0.89; CI: 0.812–0.953; p < 0.005) and long hospital stay (OR: 0.978; CI: 0.961–0.992; p < 0.005). Interestingly, significantly elevated levels of S1P were noted in patients who received methylprednisolone treatment during hospitalization. These results suggest that S1P may be associated with the pathogenesis of CAP and may have prognostic utility in CAP and its therapy, especially in the Emergency Department setting.

Biomarkers of Community-Acquired Pneumonia: A Key to Disease Diagnosis and Management

Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is a dangerous disease caused by a spectrum of bacterial and viral pathogens. The choice of specific therapy and the need for hospitalization or transfer to the intensive care unit are determined by the causative agent and disease severity. The microbiological analysis of sputum largely depends on the quality of the material obtained. The prediction of severity and the duration of therapy are determined individually, and existing prognostic scales are used generally. This review examines the possibilities of using specific serological biomarkers to detect the bacterial or viral aetiology of CAP and to assess disease severity. Particular emphasis is placed on the use of biomarker signatures and the discovery of biomarker candidates for a single multiplex analysis.

Empirical evidence of the impact of study characteristics on the performance of prediction models: a meta-epidemiological study

OBJECTIVES

To empirically assess the relation between study characteristics and prognostic model performance in external validation studies of multivariable prognostic models.

DESIGN

Meta-epidemiological study.

DATA SOURCES AND STUDY SELECTION

On 16 October 2018, we searched electronic databases for systematic reviews of prognostic models. Reviews from non-overlapping clinical fields were selected if they reported common performance measures (either the concordance (c)-statistic or the ratio of observed over expected number of events (OE ratio)) from 10 or more validations of the same prognostic model.

DATA EXTRACTION AND ANALYSES

Study design features, population characteristics, methods of predictor and outcome assessment, and the aforementioned performance measures were extracted from the included external validation studies. Random effects meta-regression was used to quantify the association between the study characteristics and model performance.

RESULTS

We included 10 systematic reviews, describing a total of 224 external validations, of which 221 reported c-statistics and 124 OE ratios. Associations between study characteristics and model performance were heterogeneous across systematic reviews. C-statistics were most associated with variation in population characteristics, outcome definitions and measurement and predictor substitution. For example, validations with eligibility criteria comparable to the development study were associated with higher c-statistics compared with narrower criteria (difference in logit c-statistic 0.21(95% CI 0.07 to 0.35), similar to an increase from 0.70 to 0.74). Using a case-control design was associated with higher OE ratios, compared with using data from a cohort (difference in log OE ratio 0.97(95% CI 0.38 to 1.55), similar to an increase in OE ratio from 1.00 to 2.63).

CONCLUSIONS

Variation in performance of prognostic models across studies is mainly associated with variation in case-mix, study designs, outcome definitions and measurement methods and predictor substitution. Researchers developing and validating prognostic models should realise the potential influence of these study characteristics on the predictive performance of prognostic models.

Severity scoring systems for pneumonia: current understanding and next steps

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

To describe the current understanding and clinical applicability of severity scoring systems in pneumonia management.

RECENT FINDINGS

Severity scores in community-acquired pneumonia are strong markers of mortality, but are not necessarily clinical decision-aid tools. The use of severity scores to support outpatient care in low-risk patients has moderate-to-strong evidence available in the literature, mainly for the pneumonia severity index, and must be applied together with clinical judgment. It is not clear that severity scores are helpful to guide empiric antibiotic treatment. The inclusion of biomarkers and performance status might improve the predictive performance of the well known severity scores in community-acquired pneumonia. We should improve our methods for score evaluation and move toward the development of decision-aid tools.

SUMMARY

The application of the available evidence favors the use of severity scoring systems to improve the delivery of care for pneumonia patients. The incorporation of new methodologies and the formulation of different questions other than mortality prediction might help the further development of severity scoring systems, and enhance their support to the clinical decision-making process for the pneumonia-management cascade.

A new prediction model for assessing the clinical outcomes of ICU patients with community-acquired pneumonia: a decision tree analysis

PURPOSE

We aimed to develop a new scoring index based on decision-tree analysis to predict clinical outcomes of patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU).

METHODS

Data of 3519 ICU patients with CAP were obtained from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC III) 2001-2012 database and analysed between 30-d survivors and non-survivors. Accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity of the new decision tree model were compared with those of CURB-65 and SOAR.

RESULTS

The newly developed classification and regression tree (CART) model identified coexisting illnesses as the most important single discriminating factor between survivors and non-survivors. The CART model area under the curve (AUC) 0.661 was superior to that of CURB-65 (0.609) and SOAR (0.589). CART sensitivity was 73.4%, and specificity 49.0%. CURB-65 and SOAR sensitivity for predicting 30-d mortality were 74.5 and 80.7%, and specificity was 42.3 and 33.9%, respectively. After smoothing, the CART model had higher sensitivity and specificity than both CURB-65 and SOAR.

CONCLUSIONS

The new CART prediction model has higher specificity and better receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves than CURB-65 and SOAR score indices although its accuracy and sensitivity are only moderately better than the other systems. Key messages The new CART prediction model has higher specificity and better ROC curves than CURB-65 and SOAR score indices. However, accuracy and sensitivity of the new CART prediction model are only moderately better than the other systems in predicting 30-day mortality in CAP patients.

Challenges in severe community-acquired pneumonia: a point-of-view review

Purpose

Severe community-acquired pneumonia (SCAP) is still associated with substantial morbidity and mortality. In this point-of-view review paper, a group of experts discuss the main controversies in SCAP: the role of severity scores to guide patient settings of care and empiric antibiotic therapy; the emergence of pathogens outside the core microorganisms of CAP; viral SCAP; the best empirical treatment; septic shock as the most lethal complication; and the need for new antibiotics.

Methods

For all topics, the authors describe current controversies and evidence and provide recommendations and suggestions for future research. Evidence was based on meta-analyses, most recent RCTs and recent interventional or observational studies. Recommendations were reached by consensus of all the authors.

Results and conclusions

The IDSA/ATS criteria remain the most pragmatic tool to predict ICU admission. The authors recommend a combination of a beta-lactam/beta-lactamase inhibitor or a third G cephalosporin plus a macrolide in most SCAP patients, and to empirically cover PES (P. aeruginosa, extended spectrum beta-lactamase producing Enterobacteriaceae, methicillin-resistant S. aureus) pathogens when at least two specific risk factors are present. In patients with influenza CAP, the authors recommend the use of oseltamivir and avoidance of the use of steroids. Corticosteroids can be used in case of refractory shock and high systemic inflammatory response.

[Community-acquired pneumonia]

Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is a frequent and potentially fatal disorder. Due to the notably high mortality within the first days, the immediate initiation of rational diagnostic pathways and treatment is of tremendous prognostic impact. In this review article, the current German guideline on the diagnosis and therapy of CAP is presented. Special focus is put on structured patient management based on the individual risk for early identification of critically ill patients. In particular, risk assessment directly influences rational diagnostics and adequate therapy. New recommendations concerning preventive strategies are also discussed in this article.

Risk stratification and prediction value of procalcitonin and clinical severity scores for community-acquired pneumonia in ED

OBJECTIVE

Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is a common presentation to the emergency department (ED) and has high mortality rates. The aim of our study is to investigate the risk stratification and prognostic prediction value of precalcitonin (PCT) and clinical severity scores on patients with CAP in ED.

METHODS

226 consecutive adult patients with CAP admitted in ED of a tertiary teaching hospital were enrolled. Demographic information and clinical parameters including PCT levels were analyzed. CURB65, PSI, SOFA and qSOFA scores were calculated and compared between the severe CAP (SCAP) and non-severe CAP (NSCAP) group or the death and survival group. Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves for 28-day mortality were calculated for each predictor using cut-off values. Logistic regression models and area under the curve (AUC) analysis were performed to compare the performance of predictors.

RESULTS

Fifty-one patients were classified as SCAP and forty-nine patients died within 28days. There was significant difference between either SCAP and NSCAP group or death and survival group in PCT level and CURB65, PSI, SOFA, qSOFA scores (p < 0.001). The AUCs of the PCT and CURB65, PSI, SOFA and qSOFA in predicting SCAP were 0.875, 0.805, 0.810, 0.852 and 0.724, respectively. PCT is superior in predicting SCAP and the models combining PCT and SOFA demonstrated superior performance to those of PCT or the CAP severity score alone. The AUCs of the PCT and CURB65, PSI, SOFA and qSOFA in predicting 28-day mortality were 0.822, 0.829, 0.813, 0.913 and 0.717, respectively. SOFA achieved the highest AUC and the combination of PCT and SOFA had the highest superiority over other combinations in predicting 28-day mortality.

CONCLUSION

Serum PCT is a valuable single predictor for SCAP. SOFA is superior in prediction of 28-day mortality. Combination of PCT and SOFA could improve the performance of single predictors. More further studies with larger sample size are warranted to validate our results.

Hospitalized Patients with Acute Pneumonia

Pneumonia is one of the leading causes of mortality and hospitalization among US adults. The decision to admit patients from the emergency department is a major one because of its impact on patients and the hospital. The diagnosis of pneumonia is often clinical and based on symptoms and signs combined with radiographic findings. There are multiple severity assessments available that can guide treatment, prognosis, and disposition. Viruses are an important cause of pneumonia and require early recognition and treatment. The recommended treatment for community-acquired pneumonia includes a beta lactam plus a macrolide or a respiratory fluoroquinolone.