A meta-analysis of the predictive accuracy of postoperative mortality using the American Society of Anesthesiologists' physical status classification system

Leveraging American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status Classification and Surgeon Risk Estimates to Stratify Surgical Risk: A Prospective Observational Study

INTRODUCTION

The American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status Classification (ASA PS class) is generated by the anesthesiologist before surgery. It is correlated with postoperative complications but does not integrate surgery-specific considerations or intraoperative events. We sought to combine ASA PS class with surgeon-generated risk estimates to create an easily deployed and accurate postsurgical risk stratification tool.

METHODS

Surgeons at one academic center were surveyed before surgery to evaluate perceived risk of postsurgery complications. ASA PS class, presurgery clinical features, and clinical postsurgery outcomes were abstracted from an institutional database and the electronic health record. Binomial regression models predicting overall 30-d morbidity were trained using presurgery clinical features, ASA PS class, and surgeon risk estimates, alone and in combination.

RESULTS

Surgeon risk estimates were collected from 11 surgeons for 286 patients undergoing 68 procedure types. One hundred seventy-five (61.89%) patients had ASA PS class 3 or higher. One hundred twenty (41.96%) patients were estimated to be at higher than average risk before surgery. The overall complication rate was 27.27%. ASA PS class and surgeon risk estimates predicted surgery complication with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) 0.79 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.71-0.86) and AUC 0.71 (95% CI 0.63-0.78), respectively. Combining ASA PS class and the surgeon risk estimate resulted in model discrimination (AUC 0.84, 95% CI 0.78-0.89) similar to that of a clinical data-based model (AUC 0.84, 95% CI 0.78-0.88). Subgroup analysis showed that attending surgeons are better able to predict postsurgery complications than senior trainees; risk estimates from both groups were improved by combination with the ASA PS class.

CONCLUSIONS

ASA PS class and surgeon risk estimates are independently predictive of overall 30-d morbidity. Taken together, these assessments resulted in improved anticipation of postsurgery complications with model discrimination on par with a traditional clinical data-based model. Judgment-derived assessments alone can be used to accurately predict a patient's postsurgery risk. Future research should identify scenarios where clinician judgment is especially valuable for postsurgery risk stratification and how to best integrate clinician judgment with risk stratification systems to encourage routine use of these tools and promote optimal postsurgery management.

Regional variation in traumatic brain injury patterns, management and mortality: a nationwide Swedish cohort study

BACKGROUND

Sweden covers a large land area, but is sparsely populated. The country is divided into six heterogenous healthcare regions, each with different geographic conditions and referral patterns when it comes to traumatic brain injury (TBI). This study aimed to explore the variation in demography, injury patterns, care pathways, management, and mortality (30 d) for TBI patients within the country.

METHODS

A nationwide, observational study, using data from the Swedish Trauma Registry (SweTrau) between 2018-2022, was performed. A total of 5036 TBI patients were included. Data on demography, admission status (through Glasgow Coma Scale [GCS] value at arrival at first managing hospital), injury-related variables, and mortality (30 d) were evaluated.

RESULTS

The median age was 65 years (interquartile range 46-78), and the majority of patients were male, had sustained fall-related injuries, and were conscious upon admission. Slight, but significant differences (p < 0.05) existed among the regions in these variables. In multivariate logistic regression models, the healthcare region (p < 0.05) was independently associated with patient referral to a university hospital (as compared to care at a local hospital alone), craniotomy rate, and receiving an intracranial pressure-monitoring device, after adjustment for demographic and injury variables. In similar regressions regarding mortality, specific healthcare regions (p < 0.05) were independently associated with said outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

The study highlights, from a systems-level perspective, that there was a significant variation in care pathways and management among the six healthcare regions in Sweden, which might have impacted on clinical outcome. These findings call for more granular studies to understand which aspects of patient management that were particularly beneficial or detrimental for patient survival and recovery.

Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Outcomes of Patients Undergoing Oncological Surgeries: CORONAL Study

BACKGROUND

The impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on postoperative recovery from oncology surgeries should be understood for the clinical decision-making. Therefore, this study was designed to evaluate the postoperative cumulative 28-day mortality and the morbidity of surgical oncology patients during the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study included patients consecutively admitted to intensive care units (ICU) of three centres for postoperative care of oncologic surgeries between March to June 2019 (first phase) and March to June 2020 (second phase). The primary outcome was cumulative 28-day postoperative mortality. Secondary outcomes were postoperative organic dysfunction and the incidence of clinical complications. Because of the possibility of imbalance between groups, adjusted analyses were performed: Cox proportional hazards model (primary outcome) and multiple logistic regression model (secondary outcomes).

RESULTS

After screening 328 patients, 291 were included. The proportional hazard of cumulative 28-day mortality was higher in the second phase than that in the first phase in the Cox model, with the adjusted hazard ratio of 4.35 (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.15-8.82). The adjusted incidences of respiratory complications (odds ratio [OR] 5.35; 95% CI 1.42-20.11) and pulmonary infections (OR 1.53; 95% CI 1.08-2.17) were higher in the second phase. However, the adjusted incidence of other infections was lower in the second phase (OR 0.78; 95% CI 0.67-0.91).

CONCLUSIONS

Surgical oncology patients who underwent postoperative care in the intensive care unit during the COVID-19 pandemic had higher hazard of 28-day mortality. Furthermore, these patients had higher odds of respiratory complications and pulmonary infections. Trials registration The study is registered in the Brazilian Registry of Clinical Trials under the code RBR-8ygjpqm, UTN code U1111-1293-5414.

Sutureless Repair for Open Treatment of Inguinal Hernia: Three Techniques in Comparison

Currently, groin hernia repair is mostly performed with application of mesh prostheses fixed with or without suture. However, views on safety and efficacy of different surgical approaches are still partly discordant. In this multicentre retrospective study, three sutureless procedures, i.e., mesh fixation with glue, application of self-gripping mesh, and Trabucco's technique, were compared in 1034 patients with primary unilateral non-complicated inguinal hernia subjected to open anterior surgery. Patient-related features, comorbidities, and drugs potentially affecting the intervention outcomes were also examined. The incidence of postoperative complications, acute and chronic pain, and time until discharge were assessed. A multivariate logistic regression was used to compare the odds ratio of the surgical techniques adjusting for other risk factors. The application of standard/heavy mesh, performed in the Trabucco's technique, was found to significantly increase the odds ratio of hematomas (p = 0.014) and, most notably, of acute postoperative pain (p < 0.001). Among the clinical parameters, antithrombotic therapy and large hernia size were independent risk factors for hematomas and longer hospital stay, whilst small hernias were an independent predictor of pain. Overall, our findings suggest that the Trabucco's technique should not be preferred in patients with a large hernia and on antithrombotic therapy.

Development and validation of a machine learning ASA-score to identify candidates for comprehensive preoperative screening and risk stratification

OBJECTIVE

The ASA physical status (ASA-PS) is determined by an anesthesia provider or surgeon to communicate co-morbidities relevant to perioperative risk. Assigning an ASA-PS is a clinical decision and there is substantial provider-dependent variability. We developed and externally validated a machine learning-derived algorithm to determine ASA-PS (ML-PS) based on data available in the medical record.

DESIGN

Retrospective multicenter hospital registry study.

SETTING

University-affiliated hospital networks.

PATIENTS

Patients who received anesthesia at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center (Boston, MA, training [n = 361,602] and internal validation cohorts [n = 90,400]) and Montefiore Medical Center (Bronx, NY, external validation cohort [n = 254,412]).

MEASUREMENTS

The ML-PS was created using a supervised random forest model with 35 preoperatively available variables. Its predictive ability for 30-day mortality, postoperative ICU admission, and adverse discharge were determined by logistic regression.

MAIN RESULTS

The anesthesiologist ASA-PS and ML-PS were in agreement in 57.2% of the cases (moderate inter-rater agreement). Compared with anesthesiologist rating, ML-PS assigned more patients into extreme ASA-PS (I and IV), (p < 0.01), and less patients in ASA II and III (p < 0.01). ML-PS and anesthesiologist ASA-PS had excellent predictive values for 30-day mortality, and good predictive values for postoperative ICU admission and adverse discharge. Among the 3594 patients who died within 30 days after surgery, net reclassification improvement analysis revealed that using the ML-PS, 1281 (35.6%) patients were reclassified into the higher clinical risk category compared with anesthesiologist rating. However, in a subgroup of multiple co-morbidity patients, anesthesiologist ASA-PS had a better predictive accuracy than ML-PS.

CONCLUSIONS

We created and validated a machine learning physical status based on preoperatively available data. The ability to identify patients at high risk early in the preoperative process independent of the provider's decision is a part of the process we use to standardize the stratified preoperative evaluation of patients scheduled for ambulatory surgery.

Comparison of the effects of sugammadex versus neostigmine for reversal of neuromuscular block on hospital costs of care

BACKGROUND

Sugammadex reversal of neuromuscular block facilitates recovery of neuromuscular function after surgery, but the drug is expensive. We evaluated the effects of sugammadex on hospital costs of care.

METHODS

We analysed 79 474 adult surgical patients who received neuromuscular blocking agents and reversal from two academic healthcare networks between 2016 and 2021 to calculate differences in direct costs. We matched our data with data from the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project-National Inpatient Sample (HCUP-NIS) to calculate differences in total costs in US dollars. Perioperative risk profiles were defined based on ASA physical status and admission status (ambulatory surgery vs hospitalisation).

RESULTS

Based on our registry data analysis, administration of sugammadex vs neostigmine was associated with lower direct costs (-1.3% lower costs; 95% confidence interval [CI], -0.5 to -2.2%; P=0.002). In the HCUP-NIS matched cohort, sugammadex use was associated with US$232 lower total costs (95% CI, -US$376 to -US$88; P=0.002). Subgroup analysis revealed that sugammadex was associated with US$1042 lower total costs (95% CI, -US$1198 to -US$884; P<0.001) in patients with lower risk. In contrast, sugammadex was associated with US$620 higher total costs (95% CI, US$377 to US$865; P<0.001) in patients with a higher risk (American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status ≥3 and preoperative hospitalisation).

CONCLUSIONS

The effects of using sugammadex on costs of care depend on patient risk, defined based on comorbidities and admission status. We observed lower costs of care in patients with lower risk and higher costs of care in hospitalised surgical patients with severe comorbidities.

Factors associated with posoperative mortality in high perioperative risk patients. Cohort study

Introduction: Determining perioperative risk is part of the strategies implemented with the aim of reducing morbidity and mortality in the surgical population in the world. Although there is no established definition, high perioperative risk is associated with the group of patients with the highest disease burden. Objective: To determine postoperative mortality and its associated factors in patients with high perioperative risk. Methods: Analytical observational cohort study of high perioperative risk patients included in the database (n = 843) of the anesthesia program in a high complexity hospital in Colombia, between January 2011 and April 2018. Pre and postoperative variables were analyzed using uni and multivariate logistic regression per protocol. Overall and stratified mortality were estimated and factors associated with their occurrence were analyzed. Finally, survival was analyzed, the primary outcome being overall cohort mortality and stratified high cardiovascular risk mortality. Results: Cumulative 7-day mortality was 3.68% (95% CI 2.40-4.95%) and 30-day mortality was 10.08% (95% CI 8.05-12.12%). Perioperative mortality in the high cardiovascular risk group in the first 7 days was 3.60% (95% CI 1.13-6.07%) and 14.86% (95% CI 10.15-19.58%) at 30 days. The following preoperative variables were associated with mortality: chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, chronic kidney disease, limited functional class and abdominal aortic aneurysm. A strong association was observed between postoperative complications and a significant increase in mortality rate; the most relevant complications were cerebrovascular events and cardiogenic shock. Conclusions: In this group of high perioperative risk patients,  and in the subgroup of high cardiovascular risk patients, overall mortality at 7 and at 30 days was estimated to be above values reported in various countries. Mortality was significantly increased by the presence of preoperative factors and postoperative complications.

Racial disparities in postoperative morbidity and mortality among high-risk pediatric surgical patients

STUDY OBJECTIVE

With increasing improvement in perioperative care, post-surgical complication and mortality rates have continued to decline in the United States. Nonetheless, not all racial groups have benefitted equally from this transformative improvement in postoperative outcomes. We tested the hypothesis that among a cohort of "sick" (ASA physical status 4 or 5) Black and White children, there would be no systematic difference in the incidence of postoperative morbidity and mortality.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

Institutions participating in the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program-Pediatric (2012-2019).

PATIENTS

Black and White children who underwent inpatient operations and were assigned ASA physical status 4 or 5.

MEASUREMENTS

risk adjusted odds ratios for 30-day postoperative mortality and complications using multivariable logistic regression models, controlling for various baseline covariates.

MAIN RESULTS

There were 16,097 children included in the analytic cohort (77.0% White and 23.0% Black). After adjusting for baseline covariates, Black children were estimated to be 20% more likely than their White counterparts to die within 30 days after surgery (9.3% vs. 7.2%, adjusted-OR: 1.20, 95% CI: 1.05-1.38, P = 0.007). Black children were also more likely to develop pulmonary complications compared to their White peers (52.1% vs. 44.6%, adjusted-OR: 1.13, 95%CI: 1.04, 1.23, P = 0.005). Being Black also conferred an estimated 28% relative greater odds of developing cardiovascular complications (4.6% vs. 3.3%, 95%CI: 1.06, 1.54, P = 0.010). Finally, being Black conferred an estimated 33% relative greater odds of requiring an extended LOS compared to Whites (50.7% vs. 38.7%, adjusted-OR: 1.33, 95% CI: 1.22-1.46, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

In this cohort of children with high ASA physical status, Black children compared to their White peers experienced significantly higher rates of 30-day postoperative morbidity and mortality. These findings suggest that racial differences in postoperative outcomes among the sickest pediatric surgical patients may not be entirely explained by preoperative health status.

Perioperative Risk Stratification and Modification

This article discusses the important topic of perioperative risk stratification and the interventions that can be used in the perioperative period for risk modification. It begins with a brief overview of the commonly used scoring systems, risk-prediction models, and assessments of functional capacity and discusses some of the evidence behind each. It then moves on to examine how perioperative risk can be modified through the use of shared decision making, management of multimorbidity, and prehabilitation programs, before considering what the future of risk stratification and modification may hold.

Tools and scores for general and cardiovascular perioperative risk assessment: a narrative review

The number of surgical procedures in the world is large and in Brazil it has been expressing a growth trend higher than the population growth. In this context, perioperative risk assessment safeguards the optimization of the outcomes sought by the procedures. For this evaluation, anamnesis and physical examination constitute an irreplaceable initial stage which may or may not be followed by complementary exams, interventions for clinical stabilization and application of risk estimation tools. The use of these tools can be very useful in order to obtain objective data for decision making by weighing surgical risk and benefit. Global and cardiovascular risk assessments are of greatest interest in the preoperative period, however information about their methods is scattered in the literature. Some tools such as the American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status (ASA PS) and the Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI) are more widely known, while others are less known but can provide valuable information. Here, the main indices, scores and calculators that address general and cardiovascular perioperative risk were detailed.

Comparison of National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Surgical Risk Calculator, Trauma and Injury Severity Score, and American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status to predict operative trauma mortality in elderly patients

BACKGROUND

The Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS) uses anatomical and physiologic variables to predict mortality. Elderly (65 years or older) trauma patients have increased mortality and morbidity for a given TRISS, in part because of functional status and comorbidities. These factors are incorporated into the American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status (ASA-PS) and National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Surgical Risk Calculator (NSQIP-SRC). We hypothesized scoring tools using comorbidities and functional status to be superior at predicting mortality, hospital length of stay (LOS), and complications in elderly trauma patients undergoing operation.

METHODS

Four level I trauma centers prospectively collected data on elderly trauma patients undergoing surgery within 24 hours of admission. Using logistic regression, five scoring models were compared: ASA-PS, NSQIP-SRC, TRISS, TRISS-ASA-PS, and TRISS-NSQIP-SRC.Brier scores and area under the receiver operator characteristics curve were calculated to compare mortality prediction. Adjusted R2 and root mean squared error were used to compare LOS and predictive ability for number of complications.

RESULTS

From 122 subjects, 9 (7.4%) died, and the average LOS was 12.9 days (range, 1-110 days). National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Surgical Risk Calculator was superior to ASA-PS and TRISS at predicting mortality (area under the receiver operator characteristics curve, 0.978 vs. 0.768 vs. 0.903; p = 0.007). Furthermore, NSQIP-SRC was more accurate predicting LOS (R2, 25.9% vs. 13.3% vs. 20.5%) and complications (R2, 34.0% vs. 22.6% vs. 29.4%) compared with TRISS and ASA-PS. Adding TRISS to NSQIP-SRC improved predictive ability compared with NSQIP-SRC alone for complications (R2, 35.5% vs. 34.0%; p = 0.046). However, adding ASA-PS or TRISS to NSQIP-SRC did not improve the predictive ability for mortality or LOS.

CONCLUSION

The NSQIP-SRC, which includes comorbidities and functional status, had superior ability to predict mortality, LOS, and complications compared with TRISS alone in elderly trauma patients undergoing surgery.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Prognostic and Epidemiologic; Level III.

Preventing Postoperative Opioid-Induced Respiratory Depression Through Implementation of an Enhanced Monitoring Program

BACKGROUND

Opioid-induced respiratory depression (OIRD) is a serious complication that can lead to negative outcomes. There are known risk factors for OIRD; however, a lack of national guidelines for the prevention and early detection of OIRD exists.

METHODS

An evidence-based practice study was conducted to create an enhanced monitoring (EM) program. The EM program consisted of risk stratification of surgical spine patients, including the use of STOP-BANG screening for obstructive sleep apnea, capnography monitoring, use of home positive airway pressure therapy, capnography alarm optimization, hospitalist consultation, nursing education, and patient education.

RESULTS

Approximately 17% (N = 937/5,462) of surgical spine patients were enrolled in the EM program. Fifty-six percent of EM patients were monitored with capnography and had out of range end-tidal carbon dioxide levels 17% of the time. The rate of transfers to the intensive care unit (ICU) for OIRD decreased, though not statistically significant (p = .151).

CONCLUSIONS

The EM program with risk stratification was found to reduce transfers to the ICU for OIRD. Although not statistically significant, the decreased number of transfers was clinically significant. Engagement of the interprofessional team and capnography alarm parameter optimization helped to reduce nonactionable alarms.

ASA Physical Status Classification and Complications Following Facial Fracture Repair

BACKGROUND

To investigate the association between American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) physical status classification and rates of postoperative complications in patients undergoing facial fracture repair.

METHODS

Patients were divided into 2 cohorts based on the ASA classification system: Class I/II and Class III/IV. Chi-square and Fisher's exact tests were used for univariate analyses. Multivariate logistic regressions were used to assess the independent associations of covariates on postoperative complication rates.

RESULTS

A total of 3575 patients who underwent facial fracture repair with known ASA classification were identified. Class III/IV patients had higher rates of deep surgical site infection (P = .012) as well as bleeding, readmission, reoperation, surgical, medical, and overall postoperative complications (P < .001). Multivariate regression analysis found that Class III/IV was significantly associated with increased length of stay (P < .001) and risk of overall complications (P = .032). Specifically, ASA Class III/IV was associated with increased rates of deep surgical site infection (P = .049), postoperative bleeding (P = .036), and failure to wean off ventilator (P = .027).

CONCLUSIONS

Higher ASA class is associated with increased length of hospital stay and odds of deep surgical site infection, bleeding, and failure to wean off of ventilator following facial fracture repair. Surgeons should be aware of the increased risk for postoperative complications when performing facial fracture repair in patients with high ASA classification.

Risk assessment and risk stratification for perioperative complications and mitigation: Where should the focus be? How are we doing?

Various risk stratification tools are used to predict patients' risk of adverse outcomes. Most of these tools are based on type of surgery and patient comorbidities. Accuracy of risk prediction is improved when additional factors such as functional capacity are included. However, these tools are limited because data are obtained from specific patient populations, are simplified to aid ease of use, and do not account for improved treatment modalities that occur over time. Risk estimation allows for shared decision-making among the perioperative care team and the patient, for perioperative planning, and for opportunity for risk mitigation. Technological advancement in data collection will likely improve existing risk assessment and allow development of new options. Future research should focus on establishing and standardizing perioperative outcomes that include meaningful patient-centric considerations such as quality of life. We review available stratification tools and important risk assessment biomarkers that address the most common causes of adverse outcomes.

The Evolution, Current Value, and Future of the American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status Classification System

The American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) Physical Status classification system celebrates its 80th anniversary in 2021. Its simplicity represents its greatest strength as well as a limitation in a world of comprehensive multisystem tools. It was developed for statistical purposes and not as a surgical risk predictor. However, since it correlates well with multiple outcomes, it is widely used-appropriately or not-for risk prediction and many other purposes. It is timely to review the history and development of the system. The authors describe the controversies surrounding the ASA Physical Status classification, including the problems of interrater reliability and its limitations as a risk predictor. Last, the authors reflect on the current status and potential future of the ASA Physical Status system.

Reliability of the ASA Physical Status Classification System in Predicting Surgical Morbidity: a Retrospective Analysis

The American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) Physical Status Classification System has been used to assess pre-anesthesia comorbid conditions for over 60 years. However, the ASA Physical Status Classification System has been criticized for its subjective nature. In this study, we aimed to assess the correlation between the ASA physical status assignment and more objective measures of overall illness. This is a single medical center, retrospective cohort study of adult patients who underwent surgery between November 2, 2017 and April 22, 2020. A multivariable ordinal logistic regression model was developed to examine the relationship between the ASA physical status and Elixhauser comorbidity groups. A secondary analysis was then conducted to evaluate the capability of the model to predict 30-day postoperative mortality. A total of 56,820 cases meeting inclusion criteria were analyzed. Twenty-seven Elixhauser comorbidities were independently associated with ASA physical status. Older patient (adjusted odds ratio, 1.39 [per 10 years of age]; 95% CI 1.37 to 1.41), male patient (adjusted odds ratio, 1.24; 95% CI 1.20 to 1.29), higher body weight (adjusted odds ratio, 1.08 [per 10 kg]; 95% CI 1.07 to 1.09), and ASA emergency status (adjusted odds ratio, 2.11; 95% CI 2.00 to 2.23) were also independently associated with higher ASA physical status assignments. Furthermore, the model derived from the primary analysis was a better predictor of 30-day mortality than the models including either single ASA physical status or comorbidity indices in isolation (p < 0.001). We found significant correlation between ASA physical status and 27 of the 31 Elixhauser comorbidities, as well other demographic characteristics. This demonstrates the reliability of ASA scoring and its potential ability to predict postoperative outcomes. Additionally, compared to ASA physical status and individual comorbidity indices, the derived model offered better predictive power in terms of short-term postoperative mortality.

A novel risk score for in-hospital perioperative mortality of five major surgeries

BACKGROUND

Risk-scoring tools for perioperative mortality adjustment are essential for inter-hospital quality comparisons, which are still lacking in China. Existing scores had significant disadvantages when applied in managerial practice.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to develop a simple risk score using highly accessible information that could appropriately adjust the perioperative mortality from major surgeries across tertiary Chinese public hospitals and provide a reference for other underdeveloped countries with the same need.

METHODS

A study cohort from 19 hospitals was randomly split into a development set and an internal validation set in the ratio of 7:3. Another cohort from six hospitals was used as an external validation set. All data were obtained from the military-hospital public services database of the National Engineering Laboratory of Application Technology in Medical Big Data. Patients aged above 18 years undergoing one of the five categories of major surgical procedures between 1 January 2010 and 31 December 2020 were identified. The multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to predict the risk of mortality and derive the risk score. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test were used to assess the discrimination and calibration of the model, respectively.

RESULTS

The study set included 45 558 cases, divided into a development set containing 31 891 cases and an internal validation set with 13 667 cases. Another cohort with 14 956 cases was used as an external validation set. The final included predictor variables were age, Elixhauser Comorbidity Index, condition at admission, admission route and the procedure. The predicted risk score ranged from -21.5 to 37.0 points. The model discriminated well in the development set, internal validation set, and external validation set. The AUC for them were 0.753 (Standard Error(SE) 0.016, 95% Confidence Interval(CI): 0.721,0.784), 0.790 (SE 0.025, 95% CI: 0.742,0.839), and 0.766(SE 0.019, 95% CI: 0.728, 0.804), respectively. P values in the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test were all above 0.05, indicating a good calibration.

CONCLUSIONS

This risk-scoring model was proved to have satisfactory performance, allowing the rapid and effective risk adjustment of perioperative mortality when comparing the surgical quality in tertiary hospitals in China and other underdeveloped regions.

Intraoperative management and hemodynamic monitoring for ma- jor abdominal surgery : a narrative review

Background : Several trials suggest that postoperative outcomes may be improved by the use of hemodynamic monitoring, but a survey by the American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) and the European Society of Anaesthesiology (ESA) showed that cardiac output is monitored by only 34% of ASA and ESA respondents and central venous pressure is monitored by 73% of ASA respondents and 84% of ESA respondents. Moreover, 86.5% of ASA respondents and 98.1% of ESA respondents believe that their current hemodynamic management could be improved (1). The interaction of general anesthesia and surgical stress is the main problem and the leading cause for postoperative morbidity and mortality. The choice of a suitable hemodynamic monitoring system for patients at high anesthesiological risk is of crucial importance to reduce the incidence of major postoperative complications. The aim of the present review is to summarize the benefits of a defined path beginning before surgery, and discuss the available evidence supporting the efficacy and safety of an individualized hemodynamic approach for major abdominal surgery. Objective : To evaluate the clinical effectiveness of a perioperative hemodynamic therapy algorithm in high risk patients

Dynamic perioperative variation of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio as an independent prognosis factor following lobectomy for NSCLC

Inflammation plays a key role in malignant tumor progression. The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) is a marker of systemic inflammation and, as such, high isolated pretreatment NLR has been shown to be associated with worse long-term outcomes. The aim of the present study is to evaluate the prognostic value of pre- and post-operative NLR in relation to mortality and recurrence rates in patients undergoing lung lobectomy for NSCLC. A single-center retrospective analysis of 534 lobectomies was performed between 2009 and 2018. NLR was measured in two opportunities: 1 month prior to surgery and 1-4 months after. Primary outcomes were overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS). Secondary outcomes were variables associated with mortality and recurrence. The study sample included 264 lobectomies. Independent predictors of OS were ASA 3/4 (p = 0.041) and open surgical approach (p = 0.042). Adjuvant chemotherapy (p = 0.002) and pathological N 1/2-stage (p = 0.0015) were associated with RFS. Delta NLR correlated with OS (p = 0.042) and RFS (p < 0.001). Patients were divided into three delta NLR categories: delta NLR < 0, delta NLR 0-0.5 and delta NLR > 0.5. Increasing delta NLR was significantly associated with worse OS (p < 0.001) and RFS (p < 0.001). Dynamic behaviour of NLR assessed through delta NLR is a useful tool that potentially allows predicting mortality and recurrence outcomes in patients undergoing lung lobectomy for NSCLC and may be more informative than static baseline values.

Scores for preoperative risk evaluation of postoperative mortality

Preoperative risk evaluation scores are used prior to surgery to predict perioperative risks. They are also a useful tool to help clinicians communicate the risk-benefit balance of the procedure to patients. This review identifies and assesses the existing preoperative risk evaluation scores (also called prediction scores) of postoperative mortality in all types of surgery (emergency or scheduled) in an adult population. We systematically identified studies using the MEDLINE, Ovid EMBASE and Cochrane databases and published studies reporting the development and validation of preoperative predictive scores of postoperative mortality. We assessed usability, the level of evidence of the studies performed for external validation, and the predictive accuracy of the scores identified. We found 26 scores described within 60 different reports. The most suitable scores with the highest validity identified for anaesthesia practice were the Preoperative Score to Predict Postoperative Mortality (POSPOM), the Universal ACS NSQIP surgical risk calculator (ACS-NSQUIP), the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) and the American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status (ASA-PS) classification system. While other scores identified in this review could also be endorsed, their level of validity and generalizability to the general surgical population should be carefully considered.

Does Preoperative Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment and Frailty Predict Postoperative Complications?

BACKGROUND

The influence of preoperative comprehensive geriatric assessment and frailty on postoperative morbidity, mortality, delirium were examined.

METHODS

A total of 108 patients were evaluated. The Katz Index of Independence in Activities of Daily Living (ADL), the Lawton Brody Instrumental Activities of Daily Living Scale (IADL), the Mini-Nutrition Assessment test (MNA), the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), Yesavage Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS) were performed. Fried Criteria were used to assess physical frailty. We used the Physiological and Operative Severity Scores for the Enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity score (POSSUM), the American Society of Anesthesiologists Score (ASA), and the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) to determine the risk of postoperative morbidity and mortality. Assessment Test for Delirium (4AT) was applied for detection of delirium.

RESULTS

The median age was 71 years (min-max: 65-84). IADL (p = 0.032), MNA (p = 0.01), MMSE scores (p = 0.026) were found to be significantly lower in patients with morbidity. POSSUM physiology score (p = 0.005), operative score (p = 0.015) and CCI (p = 0.029) were significantly higher in the patients with morbidity. Patients developed morbidity were found to be more frail (p < 0.001). The patients with delirium were found to have lower IADL (p = 0.049) and MMSE scores (p = 0.004), higher POSSUM physiology score (p = 0.005) and all of them were frail. It was found that frailty (OR = 23.695 95% CI: 6.912-81.231 p < 0.001), POSSUM operative score (OR:1.118 95% CI: 1.021-1.224 p = 0.016) and preoperative systolic blood pressure (OR:0.937%95 CI: 0.879-0.999 p = 0.048) were independently related factors for postoperative morbidity.

CONCLUSION

In our study, CGA and frailty in preoperative period were found to be indicators for postoperative morbidity and delirium.

Association Between Heart Failure and Postoperative Mortality Among Patients Undergoing Ambulatory Noncardiac Surgery

Importance

Heart failure is an established risk factor for postoperative mortality, but how heart failure is associated with operative outcomes specifically in the ambulatory surgical setting is not well characterized.

Objective

To assess the risk of postoperative mortality and complications in patients with vs without heart failure at various levels of echocardiographic (left ventricular systolic dysfunction) and clinical (symptoms) severity who were undergoing ambulatory surgery.

Design, Setting, and Participants

In this US multisite retrospective cohort study of all adult patients undergoing ambulatory, elective, noncardiac surgery in the Veterans Affairs Surgical Quality Improvement Project database during fiscal years 2009 to 2016, a total of 355 121 patient records were identified and analyzed with 1 year of follow-up after surgery (final date of follow-up September 1, 2017).

Exposures

Heart failure, left ventricular ejection fraction, and presence of signs or symptoms of heart failure within 30 days of surgery.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcomes were postoperative mortality at 90 days and any postoperative complication at 30 days.

Results

Among 355 121 total patients, outcome data from 19 353 patients with heart failure (5.5%; mean [SD] age, 67.9 [10.1] years; 18 841 [96.9%] male) and 334 768 patients without heart failure (94.5%; mean [SD] age, 57.2 [14.0] years; 301 198 [90.0%] male) were analyzed. Compared with patients without heart failure, patients with heart failure had a higher risk of 90-day postoperative mortality (crude mortality risk, 2.00% vs 0.39%; adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.95; 95% CI, 1.69-2.44), and risk of mortality progressively increased with decreasing systolic function. Compared with patients without heart failure, symptomatic patients with heart failure had a greater risk of mortality (crude mortality risk, 3.57%; aOR, 2.76; 95% CI, 2.07-3.70), as did asymptomatic patients with heart failure (crude mortality risk, 1.85%; aOR, 1.85; 95% CI, 1.60-2.15). Patients with heart failure had a higher risk of experiencing a 30-day postoperative complication than did patients without heart failure (crude risk, 5.65% vs 2.65%; aOR, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.02-1.19).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this study, among patients undergoing elective, ambulatory surgery, heart failure with or without symptoms was significantly associated with 90-day mortality and 30-day postoperative complications. These data may be helpful in preoperative discussions with patients with heart failure undergoing ambulatory surgery.

Pre-operative assessment of 30-day mortality risk after major surgery: the role of the quick sequential organ failure assessment: A retrospective observational study

BACKGROUND

The quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) is intended for the assessment of the prognosis and risk of sepsis. It may also help predict the mortality risk of nonseptic patients.

OBJECTIVE

This study investigated the relationship between pre-operative qSOFA scores and 30-day mortality after major surgery. It also evaluated the predictive value of qSOFA scores combined with the American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) physical status and Charlson comorbidity index (CCI).

DESIGN

A retrospective observational study.

SETTING

Single tertiary academic hospital.

PATIENTS

Medical records of patients who underwent major surgery (estimated blood loss >500 ml; surgery time >2 h) between January 2010 and December 2017 were examined.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The qSOFA score was measured within 24 h before surgery, and its association with 30-day mortality was analysed using multivariable logistic regression. A receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis was used to investigate the predictive power of the pre-operative qSOFA scores combined with the ASA physical status and with CCI.

RESULTS

A total of 6336 patients were included in the final analysis, and 91 (1.4%) died within 30 days. The multivariable logistic regression analysis including all covariates indicated that 30-day mortality was 2.43-times higher for the score 1 group than for the score 0 group (P = 0.002), and it was 3.54-times higher for the score at least 2 group than for the score 0 group (P < 0.001). The area under the curve (AUC) of the pre-operative qSOFA, ASA physical status and CCI were 0.69, 0.55 and 0.57, respectively. When the pre-operative qSOFA score was combined with the ASA physical status or CCI, the AUCs were 0.73 and 0.72, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Higher pre-operative qSOFA scores within 24 h of surgery were associated with increased 30-day mortality. Pre-operative qSOFA scores have better predictive value for 30-day mortality when combined with the ASA physical status or CCI.

Racial disparities in comorbid conditions among patients undergoing thyroidectomy for Graves' disease: An ACS-NSQIP analysis

BACKGROUND

Studies indicate that racial disparities exist in the presentation and outcomes of patients undergoing thyroidectomy for cancer and benign disease. We examined the relationship between race, pre-operative characteristics and outcomes in patients undergoing thyroidectomy for GD.

METHODS

Patients were identified from the 2013-2016 American College of Surgeons NSQIP database using ICD-9/10 codes consistent with diffuse toxic goiter.

RESULTS

AA patients were more likely to have an ASA classification of ≥3 (41% vs 30%, p < 0.001), a higher rate of CHF (2.1% vs 0.5%, p = 0.01), hypertension (46% vs 32%, p < 0.001) and dyspnea (10% vs 5%, p < 0.001) compared to Non-Hispanic Caucasians (NH-C) patients. Complications were higher in patients with ASA≥3 and CHF but not affected by race.

CONCLUSIONS

Analysis of a national database of thyroidectomy for GD revealed a higher burden of preoperative comorbidities in AA patients compared to other races, although race was not an independent predictor of outcomes.

Impact of preoperative risk factors on outcome after gastrectomy

Background

Gastrectomy is associated with relevant postoperative morbidity. However, outcome of surgery can be improved by careful selection of patients. The objective of the current study was therefore to identify preoperative risk factors that might impact on patients’ further outcome after surgical resection.

Methods

Preoperative risk factors having respectively different surgical risk scores for major complex surgery (including Cologne Risk Score, p-/o-POSSUM, and NSQIP risk score) of patients that underwent gastrectomy for AEG II/III tumors and gastric cancer were correlated with complications according to Clavien-Dindo and outcome. Patients who underwent surgery in palliative intention were excluded from further analysis.

Results

Subtotal gastrectomy was performed in 23%, gastrectomy in 59%, and extended gastrectomy in 18% in a total of 139 patients (mean age: 64 years old). Thirty six percent experienced a minor complication (Dindo I-II) and 24% a major complication (Dindo III-V), which resulted in a prolonged hospital stay (p < 0.001). In-hospital mortality (=Dindo V) was 2.5%. Besides age, type of surgical procedure impacted on complications with extended gastrectomy showing the highest risk (p = 0.005). The o-POSSUM score failed to predict mortality accurately. We observed a highly positive correlation between predicted morbidity respectively mortality and occurrence of complications estimated by p-POSSUM (p = 0.005), Cologne Risk (p = 0.007), and NSQIP scores (p < 0.001).

Conclusion

The results demonstrate a significant association between different risk scores and occurrence of complications following gastrectomy. The p-POSSUM, Cologne Risk, and NSQIP score exhibited superior performance than the o-POSSUM score. Therefore, these scores might allow identification and selection of high-risk patients and thus might be highly useful for clinical decision making.

Root causes and outcomes of postoperative pulmonary complications after abdominal surgery: a retrospective observational cohort study

Background

Postoperative pulmonary complications (PPCs) contribute significantly to overall postoperative morbidity and mortality. In abdominal surgery, PPCs remain frequent. The study aimed to analyze the profile and outcomes of PPCs in patients submitted to abdominal surgery and admitted in a Portuguese polyvalent intensive care unit.

Methods

From January to December 2017 in the polyvalent intensive care unit of Hospital Garcia de Orta, Almada, Portugal, we conducted a retrospective, observational study of inpatients submitted to urgent or elective abdominal surgery who had severe PPCs. We evaluated the perioperative risk factors and associated mortality. Logistic regression was performed to find which perioperative risk factors were most important in the occurrence of PPCs.

Results

Sixty patients (75% male) with a median age of 64.5 [47-81] years who were submitted to urgent or elective abdominal surgery were included in the analysis. Thirty-six patients (60%) developed PPCs within 48 h and twenty-four developed PPCs after 48 h. Pneumonia was the most frequent PPC in this sample. In this cohort, 48 patients developed acute respiratory failure and needed mechanical ventilation. In the emergency setting, peritonitis had the highest rate of PPCs. Electively operated patients who developed PPCs were mostly carriers of digestive malignancies. Thirty-day mortality was 21.7%. The risk of PPCs development in the first 48 h was related to the need for neuromuscular blocking drugs several times during surgery and preoperative abnormal arterial blood gases. Median abdominal surgical incision, long surgery duration, and high body mass index were associated with PPCs that occurred more than 48 h after surgery. The American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status score 4 and COPD/Asthma determined less mechanical ventilation needs since they were preoperatively optimized. Malnutrition (low albumin) before surgery was associated with 30-day mortality.

Conclusion

PPCs after abdominal surgery are still a major problem since they have profound effects on outcomes. Our results suggest that programs before surgery, involve preoperative lifestyle changes, such as nutritional supplementation, exercise, stress reduction, and smoking cessation, were an effective strategy in mitigating postoperative complications by decreasing mortality.

Early Operative Versus Nonoperative Treatment of Fragility Fractures of the Pelvis: A Propensity-Matched Multicenter Study

OBJECTIVE

To compare early operative treatment with nonoperative treatment of fragility fractures of the pelvis regarding mortality and functional outcome.

DESIGN

Retrospective.

SETTING

Two trauma centers.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Two hundred thirty consecutive patients 60 years of age or older with an isolated low-energy fracture of the pelvis and with a follow-up of at least 24 months. In center 1, treatment consisted of a nonoperative attempt and early operative fixation if mobilization was not possible. In center 2, all patients were treated nonoperatively.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS

Primary outcome was mortality. Secondary outcomes were in-hospital complications. Patients who survived were contacted by phone, and a modified Majeed score was obtained to assess functional outcome at the final follow-up.

RESULTS

At the final follow-up (mean 61 months, SD 24), 105/230 (45.7%) patients had died. One year after the initial hospitalization, 34/148 patients [23%, 95% confidence interval (CI): 17%-31%] of the early operative group and 14/82 patients (17%, 95% CI: 10%-27%) of the nonoperative group had died (P = 0.294). Nonoperative treatment had a protective effect on survival during the first 2 years (hazard ratio of the nonlinear effect: 2.86, 95% CI: 1.38-5.94, P < 0.001). Patients in the early operative treatment group who survived the first 2 years had a better long-term survival. The functional outcome at the end of follow-up as measured by a modified Majeed score was not different between the 2 groups (early operative: 66.1, SD 12.6 vs. nonoperative: 65.7, SD 12.5, P = 0.910).

CONCLUSION

Early operative fixation of patients who cannot be mobilized within 3-5 days was associated with a higher mortality rate and complication rate at 1 year but with a better long-term survival after more than 2 years. Hence, patients with a life expectancy of less than 2 years may not benefit from surgery with regard to survival.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Therapeutic Level III. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

General anesthesia safety in progressive leukodystrophies: A retrospective study of patients with Krabbe disease and metachromatic leukodystrophy

BACKGROUND

Krabbe disease and metachromatic leukodystrophy are leukodystrophies characterized by neurologic degeneration and early death. Patients often require general anesthesia for diagnostic and therapeutic interventions.

METHODS

A retrospective review of medical records was conducted for patients with Krabbe disease and metachromatic leukodystrophy receiving general anesthesia at a large children's hospital between 2012 and 2017. Patient complications and American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status were recorded for all procedures. The Neurodevelopment in Rare Disorders classification system was created to categorize the severity of the patient's disease progression based on clinical markers. Descriptive and inferential statistics were used to compare: (a) complication rate of affected patients vs the general hospital population; (b) the accuracy of the novel Neurodevelopment in Rare Disorders classification system vs American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status regarding the assessment of complication risk; (c) complication rate in patients with hematopoietic stem cell transplantation vs those without transplantation; (d) complication rate in immunosuppressed patients vs nonimmunosuppressed patients; and (e) complication rate of the three most commonly performed procedures.

RESULTS

A total of 96 patients underwent 287 procedures. Of these, 11 cases had complications, yielding a rate of 3.8%. This is significantly higher than the overall complication rate at our institution of 0.246%. Statistical analysis showed better correlation between the Neurodevelopment in Rare Disorders classification system and complication rate than American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status and complication rate. The system also showed better accuracy in differentiating low-risk and high-risk patients. No statistically significant difference in complication rate was found for patients with transplantation vs those without transplantation or for immunosuppressed vs nonimmunosuppressed patients. Of the three most common procedures, central catheter placement/removal exhibited the highest complication rate.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the complication rate for patients with Krabbe disease and metachromatic leukodystrophy is higher than the general population, most complications were mild and self-limiting. These results suggest that, in experienced hands, general anesthesia is well tolerated in most children. Findings show that the Neurodevelopment in Rare Disorders classification system is a better indicator for assessing complication risk in patients with Krabbe and metachromatic leukodystrophy than American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status.

The role of the American Society of anesthesiologists physical status classification in predicting trauma mortality and outcomes

BACKGROUND

Trauma prediction scores such as Revised Trauma Score (RTS) and Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS)) are used to predict mortality, but do not include comorbidities. We analyzed the American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status (ASA PS) for predicting mortality in trauma patients undergoing surgery.

METHODS

This multicenter, retrospective study compared the mortality predictive ability of ASA PS, RTS, Injury Severity Score (ISS), and TRISS using a complete case analysis with mixed effects logistic regression. Associations with mortality and AROC were calculated for each measure alone and tested for differences using chi-square.

RESULTS

Of 3,042 patients, 230 (8%) died. The AROC for mortality for TRISS was 0.938 (95%CI 0.921, 0.954), RTS 0.845 (95%CI 0.815, 0.875), and ASA PS 0.886 (95%CI 0.864, 0.908). ASA PS + TRISS did not improve mortality predictive ability (p = 0.18).

CONCLUSIONS

ASA PS was a good predictor of mortality in trauma patients, although combined with TRISS it did not improve predictive ability.

Who is a high-risk surgical patient?

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Timely identification of high-risk surgical candidates facilitate surgical decision-making and allows appropriate tailoring of perioperative management strategies. This review aims to summarize the recent advances in perioperative risk stratification.

RECENT FINDINGS

Use of indices which include various combinations of preoperative and postoperative variables remain the most commonly used risk-stratification strategy. Incorporation of biomarkers (troponin and natriuretic peptides), comprehensive objective assessment of functional capacity, and frailty into the current framework enhance perioperative risk estimation. Intraoperative hemodynamic parameters can provide further signals towards identifying patients at risk of adverse postoperative outcomes. Implementation of machine-learning algorithms is showing promising results in real-time forecasting of perioperative outcomes.

SUMMARY

Perioperative risk estimation is multidimensional including validated indices, biomarkers, functional capacity estimation, and intraoperative hemodynamics. Identification and implementation of targeted strategies which mitigate predicted risk remains a greater challenge.

Intraoperative Mortality in Malawi

BACKGROUND

Surgical care is essential to improving population health, but metrics to monitor and evaluate the continuum of surgical care delivery have rarely been applied in low-resource settings, and improved efforts at benchmarking progress are needed. The objective of this study was to measure the intraoperative mortality at a Central Referral Hospital in Malawi, evaluate whether there have been changes in intraoperative mortality between 2 time periods, and assess factors associated with intraoperative mortality.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study of patients undergoing surgery at Kamuzu Central Hospital in Lilongwe, Malawi. Data describing daily consecutive operative cases were collected prospectively during 2 time periods: 2004-2006 (early cohort) and 2015-2016 (late cohort). The primary outcome was intraoperative mortality. Inverse probability of treatment weighting was used to analyze the association of intraoperative mortality with time using logistic regression models. Multivariable logistic models were performed to evaluate factors associated with intraoperative mortality.

RESULTS

There were 21,090 surgeries performed during the 2 time periods, with 15,846 (75%) and 5244 (25%) completed from 2004 to 2006 and 2015 to 2016, respectively. Intraoperative mortality in the early cohort was 57 deaths per 100,000 surgeries (95% confidence interval [CI], 26-108) and in the late cohort was 133 per 100,000 surgeries (95% CI, 56-286), with 76 per 100,000 surgeries (95% CI, 44-124) overall. After applying inverse probability of treatment weighting, there was no evidence of an association between time periods and intraoperative mortality (odds ratio [OR], 1.6; 95% CI, 0.9-2.8; P = .08). Factors associated with intraoperative mortality, adjusting for demographics, included American Society of Anesthesiology physical status III or IV versus I or II (OR, 4.4; 95% CI, 1.5-12.5; P = .006) and emergency versus elective surgery (OR, 7.7; 95% CI, 2.5-23.6; P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

Intraoperative mortality in the study hospital in Malawi is high and has not improved over time. These data demonstrate an urgent need to improve the safety and quality of perioperative care in developing countries and integrate perioperative care into global health efforts.

Association of Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction and Symptoms With Mortality After Elective Noncardiac Surgery Among Patients With Heart Failure

IMPORTANCE

Heart failure is an established risk factor for postoperative mortality, but how left ventricular ejection fraction and heart failure symptoms affect surgical outcomes is not fully described.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the risk of postoperative mortality among patients with heart failure at various levels of echocardiographic (left ventricular systolic dysfunction) and clinical (symptoms) severity compared with those without heart failure and to evaluate how risk varies across levels of surgical complexity.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

US multisite retrospective cohort study of all adult patients receiving elective, noncardiac surgery in the Veterans Affairs Surgical Quality Improvement Project database from 2009 through 2016. A total of 609 735 patient records were identified and analyzed with 1 year of follow-up after having surgery (final study follow-up: September 1, 2017).

EXPOSURES

Heart failure, left ventricular ejection fraction, and presence of signs or symptoms of heart failure within 30 days of surgery.

MAIN OUTCOME AND MEASURE

The primary outcome was postoperative mortality at 90 days.

RESULTS

Outcome data from 47 997 patients with heart failure (7.9%; mean [SD] age, 68.6 [10.1] years; 1391 women [2.9%]) and 561 738 patients without heart failure (92.1%; mean [SD] age, 59.4 [13.4] years; 50 862 women [9.1%]) were analyzed. Compared with patients without heart failure, those with heart failure had a higher risk of 90-day postoperative mortality (2635 vs 6881 90-day deaths; crude mortality risk, 5.49% vs 1.22%; adjusted absolute risk difference [RD], 1.03% [95% CI, 0.91%-1.15%]; adjusted odds ratio [OR], 1.67 [95% CI, 1.57-1.76]). Compared with patients without heart failure, symptomatic patients with heart failure (n = 5906) had a higher risk (597 deaths [10.11%]; adjusted absolute RD, 2.37% [95% CI, 2.06%-2.57%]; adjusted OR, 2.37 [95% CI, 2.14-2.63]). Asymptomatic patients with heart failure (n = 42 091) (2038 deaths [crude risk, 4.84%]; adjusted absolute RD, 0.74% [95% CI, 0.63%-0.87%]; adjusted OR, 1.53 [95% CI, 1.44-1.63]), including the subset with preserved left ventricular systolic function (1144 deaths [4.42%]; adjusted absolute RD, 0.66% [95% CI, 0.54%-0.79%]; adjusted OR, 1.46 [95% CI, 1.35-1.57]), also experienced elevated risk.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Among patients undergoing elective noncardiac surgery, heart failure with or without symptoms was significantly associated with 90-day postoperative mortality. These data may be helpful in preoperative discussions with patients with heart failure undergoing noncardiac surgery.

High preoperative modified frailty index has a negative impact on short- and long-term outcomes of octogenarians with gastric cancer after laparoscopic gastrectomy

BACKGROUND

The proportion of elderly patients who undergo surgery has rapidly increased. However, clinical indicators that predict outcomes are limited. Frailty is thought to estimate physiological reserves, although its use has not been evaluated in laparoscopic surgical patients. This study aimed to evaluate the significance of preoperative modified frailty index (PMFI) in octogenarians undergoing a laparoscopic gastrectomy.

METHODS

We reviewed prospectively collected data from 119 patients with gastric cancer (GC) aged 80 years or older who underwent a radical laparoscopic gastrectomy (RLG) between January 2007 and December 2012. Three baseline frailty traits were measured using routine preoperative laboratory data: albumin < 3.4 g/dL, haematocrit < 35%, and creatinine > 2 mg/dL. Patients were categorized by the number of positive traits as follows: low preoperative modified frailty index (LPMFI): 0-2 traits and high preoperative modified frailty index (HPMFI): 3 traits. We compared patient characteristics, operative outcomes, pathological results, morbidity, and survival.

RESULTS

A total of 43 (36.1%) patients were considered HPMFI, and 76 (63.9%) patients were considered LPMFI. HPMFI was associated with an increased risk of postoperative complications (HPMFI group: odds ratio 2.506; 95% CI, 1.113-5.643, P = 0.027). With a median follow-up of 39.0 months, the 3-year overall survival (OS), recurrence-free survival (RFS), and cancer-specific survival (CSS) rates for the entire cohort were 47.9, 34.3, and 51.7%, respectively. Significant differences were observed in OS (HPMFI group, 37.2%; LPMFI group, 53.9%; P = 0.038) and RFS (HPMFI group, 23.3%; LPMFI group, 40.5%; P = 0.012) between the groups, but no difference was found for CSS (HPMFI group, 43.5%; LPMFI group, 56.4%; P = 0.078).

CONCLUSIONS

HPMFI based on an easily calculable preoperative measure may be useful for predicting postoperative complications and have a negative impact on 3-year OS and RFS after an RLG in octogenarians. Therefore, HPMFI can serve as a low-cost, simple screen for high-risk individuals who might suffer more than expected during the postoperative period after an RLG.

Risk Assessment

Purpose of Review

The central question of preoperative assessment is not “What can be done?” but “What should be done and how?” Predicting a patient’s risk of unwanted outcomes is vital to answering this question. This review discusses risk prediction tools currently available and anticipates future developments.

Recent Findings

Simple, parsimonious risk scales and scores are being replaced by complex risk prediction models as high-capacity information systems become ubiquitous. The accuracy of risk estimation will be further increased by improved assessment of physical fitness, frailty, and incorporation of existing and novel biomarkers. However, the limitations of risk prediction for individual patient care must be recognized.

Summary

Risk prediction is transforming from clinical estimation to statistical science. Predictions should be used within the context of a patient’s baseline risk (life expectancy independent of surgery), personal circumstances, quality of life, their expectations and values, and consideration of outcomes that are meaningful for the patient.

Effect of general anesthesia and intubation on parathyroid levels in normal patients and those with hyperparathyroidism

BACKGROUND

Induction of general anesthesia and endotracheal intubation may precipitate parathyroid hormone (PTH) elevation in patients with primary hyperparathyroidism (HPT). The purposes of this study were to revisit this observation and to study its impact in healthy patients.

METHODS

Patients with primary HPT who underwent parathyroidectomy were retrospectively studied. The PTH was sampled and compared: before, immediately after general anesthesia and endotracheal intubation, and 15 minutes after parathyroidectomy. Healthy adults who underwent elective operations were prospectively studied. The PTH was sampled before general anesthesia and endotracheal intubation, immediately after, and 15 minutes later.

RESULTS

Thirty-one patients, aged 28-89 years (mean 60.1 ± 13 years), were retrospectively studied. The PTH was significantly elevated after general anesthesia and endotracheal intubation (P = .014). Fifty patients, aged 21-86 years (mean 54 ± 15 years), were prospectively studied. The PTH elevation after general anesthesia and endotracheal intubation was not significant.

CONCLUSION

General anesthesia and endotracheal intubation causes an immediate, steep, and significant PTH elevation in patients with primary HPT but only a minor change in healthy adults. The difference may be attributed to an impaired adrenergic response in patients with primary HPT.

Axillobifemoral Bypasses: Reappraisal of an Extra-Anatomic Bypass by Analysis of Results and Prognostic Factors

BACKGROUND

Axillobifemoral bypass (AFB) is method of second choice. It is reserved for patients at high operative risk or to bypass infected vessels or grafts. In this study, we analyzed prognostic factors for AFB patency and limb salvage rate to facilitate the choice of procedure.

METHODS

Between Jan 2006 and Aug 2013, 45 patients underwent AFB surgery in our department, 24 for critical limb ischemia (CLI) and 23 for infection. Endpoints of study were graft occlusion, graft infection, amputation and patient's death. Prognostic factors were compared by univariate analysis for each indication group. Mean follow-up was 40.2 (±23.2) months.

RESULTS

Complication rate was significantly higher in infection group (88.0 vs. 54.4%, p = 0.003) and in emergency surgery (83.3 vs. 56.9%, p = 0.023). Overall primary patency rate after AFB procedures was 66.7% after 1, 3, and 5 years, while secondary patency rate was 91.1% after 1 year, 82.2% after 3 years and 80.0% after 5 years. The primary and secondary patency rates did not significantly differ between the both groups (p = 0.059 and p = 0.136). Following prognostic factors showed a statistically significant influence on patency rates in CLI group: >1 previous vascular surgical intervention, patch angioplasty at the distal anastomosis site, complications after previous vascular surgery, and perioperative intake of platelet aggregation inhibitor. Only the employed bypass material had a statistical significant influence on the secondary patency rates in the infection group. Overall limb salvage rate was 82.2% after 1 year, 80.0% after 3 years and 77.8% after 5 years. There were statistically significant differences in the limb salvage rates depending on emergency surgery and a 3-vessel-run-off in the lower leg in both indication groups.

CONCLUSION

AFB have acceptable patency and limb salvage rates. AFB is a good alternative in patients with CLI at high operative risk or with infections of aortoiliac segments, even with endovascular approaches. They remain essential tools in vascular surgeon's repertoire.

Five-year survival after surgery in nonagenarian patients

AIM

In countries with longer life expectancies, the nonagenarian population is increasing. Therefore, there is greater demand for healthcare, including surgical procedures. The aim of the present study was to determine the outcomes of surgery carried out on nonagenarians in terms of long-term survival after the procedure.

METHODS

We carried out a cross-longitudinal study on a cohort of 159 nonagenarian patients, who underwent a non-cardiac, non-traumatic surgical procedure in our institution between January 1999 and December 2011. The following variables were recorded: sociodemographic characteristics, American Society of Anesthesiologists score, Charlson Comorbidity Index, surgical site, postoperative complications, operative mortality and long-term survival. The output variable was long-term survival.

RESULTS

Of the 159 patients,99 women (62%) and 60 men (38%), with a mean age of 91.8 years (SD ± 2.0 years), 44 cases were operations for malignant disorders (28%), 117 cases (74%) under emergency conditions and 42 cases (26%) were elective treatments. The operative mortality was 29%, 4.8% for elective surgery and 37.6% for emergency surgery (P < 0.001). The postoperative complication rate, including death, was 60%. The probability of survival at 1, 3, and 5 years was 59.6%, 35.8% and 24.1%, respectively. In multivariate analysis, American Society of Anesthesiologists score (HR 2.07, 95% CI 1.58-2.72), emergency surgery (HR 1.64, 95% CI 1.05-2.57) and postoperative medical complications (HR 2.58, 95% CI 1.73-3.85) were independently related to 5-year survival.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings support the perioperative safety of elective general surgery in nonagenarian patients. In selected nonagenarian patients with no cognitive impairment, surgery must not be denied. These data might be useful for surgical decision-making or informed consent for nonagerians. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2017; 17: 2389-2395.

Unplanned readmissions after primary total knee arthroplasty in Korean patients: Rate, causes, and risk factors

BACKGROUND

Unplanned hospital readmissions are indicators of the quality and performance of a health care system, but data on early readmission after primary total knee arthroplasty (TKA) in the Asian population are limited. The purpose of this study was to determine the causes, risk factors, and rate of unplanned readmission after primary TKA at a single institution in Korea.

METHODS

We analyzed all primary TKAs from 2004 to 2013 using the data from our institutional electronic database. A total of 4596 TKAs were performed on 3049 patients. All unplanned readmissions within 30 and 90days of discharge were identified, categorized into arthroplasty-related, medical, and other orthopedic causes.

RESULTS

The overall unplanned readmission rate was 1.9% (n=59) within 30days and 3.3% (n=101) within 90days, and both the 30 and 90day readmission rates remained stable over the entire study period. The majority of readmissions involved arthroplasty-related causes; the most common cause being wound problems, accounting for 22% (13/59) within 30days and 24% (24/101) within 90days. Age (P=0.029) and hypertension (P=0.021) were identified as risk factors for unplanned readmissions after TKA.

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrates that unplanned readmissions after TKA are not infrequent in Korean patients and has identified wound complication as the most frequent cause of unplanned readmissions. Optimized care systems should be established to minimize unplanned readmissions, particularly for patients with high risk factors.

Association between frailty and readmission within one year after gastrectomy in older patients with gastric cancer

OBJECTIVE

The incidence of gastric cancer in older people is increasing. Because older patients are at increased risk of postoperative complications and mortality, preoperative risk assessment in this population is important. This study explored whether preoperative assessment of frailty could be useful for predicting the postoperative outcome in patients with gastric cancer.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We investigated 223 patients (136 men and 87 women) over 65years of age who underwent gastric cancer surgery from April 2012 to March 2015 at a single institution in Korea. Frailty was assessed using the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures (SOF) frailty index. Logistic regression was used to identify factors predicting readmission within one year of discharge following gastrectomy.

RESULTS

Twenty six (11.7%) patients were readmitted within one year after gastrectomy. Patients in the "robust" and "pre-frail and frail" group had a readmission rate of 6.7% and 19.1%, respectively. After adjusting age, gender, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (ECOG PS) (score≥1), histological type and stage (III, IV), frailty (pre-frail and frail) was a predictive factor for readmission within one year of discharge after gastrectomy (Odds Ratio, 5.74, 95%; Confidence Interval, 1.78-18.48; p=0.003).

CONCLUSIONS

Preoperative risk assessment including frailty evaluation can predict the readmission within one year of discharge after gastrectomy. Frailty assessment can help physicians to identify the risk and inform patients and their families of the risk, which should improve decision making in gastric cancer treatment.

New surgical scoring system to predict postoperative mortality

Purpose

There is still no easy and highly useful method to comprehensively assess both preoperative and intraoperative patient statuses to predict postoperative outcomes. We attempted to develop a new scoring system that would enable a comprehensive assessment of preoperative and intraoperative patient statuses instantly at the end of anesthesia, predicting postoperative mortality.

Methods

The study included 32,555 patients who underwent surgery under general or regional anesthesia from 2008 to 2012. From the anesthesia records, extracted factors, including patient characteristics and American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status classification (ASA-PS), and three intraoperative indexes (the lowest heart rate, lowest mean arterial pressure, and estimated volume of blood loss) are used to calculate the surgical Apgar score (sAs). The sAs and ASA-PS, and surgical Apgar score combined with American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status classification (SASA), which combines the sAs and ASA-PS into a single adjusted scale, were compared and analyzed with postoperative 30-day mortality.

Results

Increased severity of the sAs, ASA-PS and SASA was correlated with significantly higher mortality. The risk of death was elevated by 3.65 for every 2-point decrease in the sAs, by 6.4 for every 1-point increase in the ASA-PS, and by 9.56 for every 4-point decrease in the SASA. The ROC curves of the sAs and ASA-PS alone also individually demonstrated high validity (AUC = 0.81 for sAs and 0.79 for ASA-PS, P < 0.001). The SASA was even more valid (AUC = 0.87, P < 0.001).

Conclusions

The sAs and ASA-PS were shown to be extremely useful for predicting 30-day mortality after surgery. An even higher predictive ability was demonstrated by the SASA, which combines these simple and effective scoring systems.

Robot-Assisted Radical Cystectomy for Bladder Cancer in Octogenarians

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate perioperative morbidity and mortality rate, a 3-year recurrence-free survival, and cancer-specific mortality rate in patients older than 80 years undergoing robot-assisted radical cystectomy (RARC).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We retrospectively collected data of 155 consecutive patients who received RARC for muscle-invasive or high-risk nonmuscle-invasive urothelial carcinoma of the bladder between 2003 and 2014 at a high-volume robotic center. Diversion was performed intra- or extracorporeally according to the surgeon's preferences. Complications were graded according to the Clavien-Dindo system. Logistic regression analyses were used to assess the impact of age on postoperative outcomes.

RESULTS

Of 155 consecutive patients, 22 (14.2%) patients were 80 years or older. Octogenarians did not significantly differ from younger patients in ASA score (p = 0.4) and Charlson comorbidity index (p = 0.4). Prevalence of any grade and high-grade complications was similar in both groups (all p ≥ 0.6). Older patients had a significantly higher pathologic tumor grade (p = 0.04) and a lower use of pelvic lymphadenectomy (p < 0.001). No perioperative mortality rate was recorded within 90 days from surgery. Elderly patients had a similar risk of 3-year oncologic recurrence after surgery compared with their younger counterparts (odds ratio [OR] 1.63; p = 0.2). Conversely, the risk of cancer-specific mortality rate was significantly higher (OR 2.78; p = 0.02).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients 80 years or older undergoing RARC for bladder cancer did not have a higher risk of peri- and postoperative morbidity and mortality rate and had a similar 3-year recurrence-free survival, suggesting that RARC can be safely performed in selected elderly patients by experienced surgeons.

How can we identify the high-risk patient?

Purpose of review

Accurate and early identification of high-risk surgical patients allows for targeted use of perioperative monitoring and interventions that may improve their outcomes. This review summarizes current evidence on how information from the preoperative, operative, and immediate postoperative periods can help identify such individuals.

Recent findings

Simple risk indices, such as the Revised Cardiac Risk Index or American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status scale, and online calculators allow risk to be estimated with moderate accuracy using readily available preoperative clinical information. Both specific specialized tests (i.e., cardiopulmonary exercise testing and cardiac stress testing) and promising novel biomarkers (i.e., troponins and natriuretic peptides) can help refine these risk estimates before surgery. Estimates of perioperative risk can be further informed by information acquired during the operative and immediate postoperative periods, such as risk indices (i.e., surgical Apgar score), individual risk factors (i.e., intraoperative hypotension), or postoperative biomarkers (i.e., troponins and natriuretic peptides).

Summary

Preoperative clinical risk indices and risk calculators estimate surgical risk with moderate accuracy. Although novel biomarkers, specialized preoperative testing, and immediate postoperative risk indices show promise as methods to refine these risk estimates, more research is needed on how best to integrate risk information from these different sources.

Predicting outcomes: Is there utility in risk scores?

PURPOSE

This review discusses the utility of risk scores, specifically, the role of preoperative risk scores in guiding the management of surgical patients, approaches to evaluate the quality of risk scores, and limitations to consider when applying risk scores in clinical practice.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

This review shows how accurate predictions of perioperative risk can help inform patients and clinicians with respect to decision-making around surgery; identify patients who warrant further specialized investigations, new interventions intended to decrease risk, modifications in planned operative procedures, or intensification of postoperative monitoring; and facilitate fairer comparisons of outcomes between providers and hospitals. A preoperative risk score formally integrates several pieces of clinical information (e.g., age, comorbid disease, laboratory tests) to arrive at an overall estimate of an individual patient's expected risk for specific postoperative adverse events. A good risk score should be simple to incorporate in clinical practice, reliable when applied by different raters, and accurate at predicting postoperative risk. Several analytical methods (e.g., receiver operating characteristic curves, likelihood ratios, risk reclassification tables, observed vs predicted plots) are required to characterize the relevant domains that encompass the prognostic accuracy of a risk score. External validation is critical in determining whether the predictive accuracy of a risk score is preserved when applied to new settings, populations, or outcome events.

CONCLUSIONS

Preoperative risk scores help inform perioperative clinical decision-making. Future research must determine how estimates of preoperative risk can be updated with information from the intraoperative period, how risk information should be communicated to patients, and which interventions can improve outcomes among patients within newly identified risk strata.