Trends in phenology of Betula pubescens across the boreal zone in Finland

Forest wildflowers bloom earlier as Europe warms: lessons from herbaria and spatial modelling

Today plants often flower earlier due to climate warming. Herbarium specimens are excellent witnesses of such long-term changes. However, the magnitude of phenological shifts may vary geographically, and the data are often clustered. Therefore, large-scale analyses of herbarium data are prone to pseudoreplication and geographical biases. We studied over 6000 herbarium specimens of 20 spring-flowering forest understory herbs from Europe to understand how their phenology had changed during the last century. We estimated phenology trends with or without taking spatial autocorrelation into account. On average plants now flowered over 6 d earlier than at the beginning of the last century. These changes were strongly associated with warmer spring temperatures. Flowering time advanced 3.6 d per 1°C warming. Spatial modelling showed that, in some parts of Europe, plants flowered earlier or later than expected. Without accounting for this, the estimates of phenological shifts were biased and model fits were poor. Our study indicates that forest wildflowers in Europe strongly advanced their phenology in response to climate change. However, these phenological shifts differ geographically. This shows that it is crucial to combine the analysis of herbarium data with spatial modelling when testing for long-term phenology trends across large spatial scales.

Grassland Phenology Response to Climate Conditions in Biobio, Chile from 2001 to 2020

Plant phenology is affected by climate conditions and therefore provides a sensitive indicator to changes in climate. Studying the evolution and change in plant phenology aids in a better understanding of and predicting changes in ecosystems. Vegetation Indices (VIs) have been recognized for their utility in indicating vegetation activity. Understanding climatic variables and their relationship to VI support the knowledge base of how ecosystems are changing under a new climatic scenario. This study evaluates grassland growth phenology in the Biobio, Chile, biweekly with Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series. Four growth parameters for the six agro-climatic regions were analyzed from 2001 to 2020: start and end of the season, time and value of maximum NDVI. For this purpose, the NDVI time series were smoothed using Savitzky–Golay filtering. In addition, by using monthly gridded database climate data, we studied correlations between phenology markers and rainfall, maximum temperature and minimum temperature. The results show that both the start and end of the growing season did not significantly change; however, all agro-climatic regions grow faster and more vigorously. Thus, climatic conditions in Biobio have become more conducive to grassland growth over the 2001–2020 period.

Phenological response to temperature variability and orography in Central Italy

Even if the sensitivity of vegetation phenology to climate change has been accepted on global and continental scales, the correlation between global warming and phenotypic variability shows a modulated answer depending on altitude, latitude, and the local seasonal thermal trend. To connect global patterns of change with local effects, we investigated the impact of the observed signal of warming found in Central Italy on two different willow species, Salix acutifolia and Salix smithiana, growing in three phenological gardens of the International Phenological Gardens' network (IPG) located in different orographic positions. The time series of temperatures and phenological data for the period 2005-2018 were analysed first to find trends over time in the three gardens and then to correlate the recent local warming and the change in the two species phenology. The results confirmed the correlation between phenological trends and local trend of temperatures. In particular: budburst showed a trend of advancement of 1.4 days/year on average in all three gardens; flowering showed a divergent pattern between the gardens of either advancement of 1.0 days/year on average or delay of 1.1 days/year on average; while senescence showed a delay reaching even 3.3 days/year, although significant in only two gardens for both species. These trends were found to be correlated mainly with the temperatures of the months preceding the occurrence of the phase, with a shift in terms of days of the year (DOY) of the two species. Our conclusion is that the observed warming in Central Italy played a key role in controlling the phenophases occurrences of the two willow species, and that the orographic forcing leads to the different shift in DOY of phenophases (from 5 to 20 days) due to the local thermal forcing of the three phenological gardens.

Monitoring for Changes in Spring Phenology at Both Temporal and Spatial Scales Based on MODIS LST Data in South Korea

This study aims to monitor spatiotemporal changes of spring phenology using the green-up start dates based on the accumulated growing degree days (AGDD) and the enhanced vegetation index (EVI), which were deducted from moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) land surface temperature (LST) data. The green-up start dates were extracted from the MODIS-derived AGDD and EVI for 30 Mongolian oak (Quercus mongolica Fisch.) stands throughout South Korea. The relationship between green-up day of year needed to reach the AGDD threshold (DoYAGDD) and air temperature was closely maintained in data in both MODIS image interpretation and from 93 meteorological stations. Leaf green-up dates of Mongolian oak based on the AGDD threshold obtained from the records measured at five meteorological stations during the last century showed the same trend as the result of cherry observed visibly. Extrapolating the results, the spring onset of Mongolian oak and cherry has become earlier (14.5 ± 4.3 and 10.7 ± 3.6 days, respectively) with the rise of air temperature over the last century. The temperature in urban areas was consistently higher than that in the forest and the rural areas and the result was reflected on the vegetation phenology. Our study expanded the scale of the study on spring vegetation phenology spatiotemporally by combining satellite images with meteorological data. We expect our findings could be used to predict long-term changes in ecosystems due to climate change.

Finnish National Phenological Network 1997-2017: from observations to trend detection

Plant phenological dataset collected at 42 sites across the mainland of Finland and covering the years 1997-2017 is presented and analysed for temporal trends. The dataset of n = 16,257 observations represents eleven plant species and fifteen phenological stages and results in forty different variables, i.e. phenophases. Trend analysis was carried out for n = 808 phenological time-series that contained at least 10 observations over the 21-year study period. A clear signal of advancing spring and early-summer phenology was detected, 3.4 days decade^-1, demonstrated by a high proportion of negative trends for phenophases occurring in April through June. Latitudinal correlation indicated stronger signal of spring and early-summer phenology towards the northern part of the study region. The autumn signal was less consistent and showed larger within-site variations than those observed in other seasons. More than 60% of the dates based on single tree/monitoring square were exactly the same as the averages from multiple trees/monitoring squares within the site. In particular, the reliability of data on autumn phenology was increased by multiple observations per site. The network is no longer active.

Land surface phenology and greenness in Alpine grasslands driven by seasonal snow and meteorological factors

Snow accumulation and melt have multiple impacts on Land Surface Phenology (LSP) and greenness in Alpine grasslands. Our understanding of these impacts and their interactions with meteorological factors are still limited. In this study, we investigate this topic by analyzing LSP dynamics together with potential drivers, using satellite imagery and other data sources. LSP (start and end of season) and greenness metrics were extracted from time series of vegetation and leaf area index. As explanatory variables we used snow accumulation, snow cover melt date and meteorological factors. We tested for inter-annual co-variation of LSP and greenness metrics with seasonal snow and meteorological metrics across elevations and for four sub-regions of natural grasslands in the Swiss Alps over the period 2003-2014. We found strong positive correlations of snow cover melt date and snow accumulation with the start of season, especially at higher elevation. Autumn temperature was found to be important at the end of season below 2000 m above sea level (m asl), while autumn precipitation was relevant above 2000 m asl, indicating climatic growth limiting factors to be elevation dependent. The effects of snow and meteorological factors on greenness revealed that this metric tends to be influenced by temperatures at high elevations, and by snow melt date at low elevations. Given the high sensitivity of alpine grassland ecosystems, these results suggest that alpine grasslands may be particularly affected by future changes in seasonal snow, to varying degree depending on elevation.

Abnormal shoot growth in Korean red pine as a response to microclimate changes due to urbanization in Korea

Impacts of climate change (e.g., abnormal growth in plants, early flowering, and shifting vegetation zones) are being detected throughout the world. Urban land use and its resulting microclimates work in conjunction with the impacts of climate change. Among the principal environmental signals that modulate bud flush, only temperature has changed significantly in recent years. Throughout South Korea, abnormal shoots (usually known as lammas shoots) in Korean red pine (Pinus densiflora), which were once a rare phenomenon, have become notably more common in recent years. The phenomenon is prominent in urban site of each local area. These abnormal shoots appear at a higher frequency and grow to longer lengths in Seoul's hotter urban center than in suburban sites and showed a close positive correlation with urban density and a close negative correlation with vegetation cover expressed as NDVI. Differences in temperature among the urban center, urban edge, and suburban greenbelt were significantly correlated with land-use intensity. Korean red pines planted in urban parks at sites in urban centers showed a lower frequency of abnormal shoots, and the length of the shoots was shorter, compared with those at the other urban sites. Furthermore, the phenology of Korean red pines in an urban park with a fountain showed a spatial difference, depending upon the distance from the fountain: pine trees close to the fountain did not produce abnormal shoots, but abnormal shoot growth increased with the distance from the fountain. These results are noteworthy because they are related to the cooling effects of evapotranspiration from vegetated landscapes and evaporation from a water body. From the results of this study, we could confirm that microclimate change due to urbanization accelerates the impacts of climate change on plant phenology. Furthermore, we identified the possibility that judicious land-use planning could contribute to minimizing the adverse effects of climate change.

Vegetation Phenological Changes in Multiple Landforms and Responses to Climate Change

Vegetation phenology is highly sensitive to climate change, and the phenological responses of vegetation to climate factors vary over time and space. Research on the vegetation phenology in different climatic regimes will help clarify the key factors affecting vegetation changes. In this paper, based on a time-series reconstruction of Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data using the Savitzky–Golay filtering method, the phenology parameters of vegetation were extracted, and the Spatio-temporal changes from 2001 to 2016 were analyzed. Moreover, the response characteristics of the vegetation phenology to climate changes, such as changes in temperature, precipitation, and sunshine hours, were discussed. The results showed that the responses of vegetation phenology to climatic factors varied within different climatic regimes and that the Spatio-temporal responses were primarily controlled by the local climatic and topographic conditions. The following were the three key findings. (1) The start of the growing season (SOS) has a regular variation with the latitude, and that in the north is later than that in the south. (2) In arid areas in the north, the SOS is mainly affected by the temperature, and the end of the growing season (EOS) is affected by precipitation, while in humid areas in the south, the SOS is mainly affected by precipitation, and the EOS is affected by the temperature. (3) Human activities play an important role in vegetation phenology changes. These findings would help predict and evaluate the stability of different ecosystems.

Antagonistic effects of growing season and autumn temperatures on the timing of leaf coloration in winter deciduous trees

Autumn phenology remains a relatively neglected aspect in climate change research, which hinders an accurate assessment of the global carbon cycle and its sensitivity to climate change. Leaf coloration, a key indicator of the growing season end, is thought to be triggered mainly by high or low temperature and drought. However, how the control of leaf coloration is split between temperature and drought is not known for many species. Moreover, whether growing season and autumn temperatures interact in influencing the timing of leaf coloration is not clear. Here, we revealed major climate drivers of leaf coloration dates and their interactions using 154 phenological datasets for four winter deciduous tree species at 89 stations, and the corresponding daily mean/minimum air temperature and precipitation data across China's temperate zone from 1981 to 2012. Results show that temperature is more decisive than drought in causing leaf coloration, and the growing season mean temperature plays a more important role than the autumn mean minimum temperature. Higher growing season temperature and lower autumn minimum temperature would induce earlier leaf coloration date. Moreover, the mean temperature over the growing season correlates positively with the autumn minimum temperature. This implies that growing season mean temperature may offset the requirement of autumn minimum temperature in triggering leaf coloration. Our findings deepen the understanding of leaf coloration mechanisms in winter deciduous trees and suggest that leaf life-span control depended on growing season mean temperature and autumn low temperature control and their interaction are major environmental cues. In the context of climate change, whether leaf coloration date advances or is delayed may depend on intensity of the offset effect of growing season temperature on autumn low temperature.

The rise of phenology with climate change: an evaluation of IJB publications

In recent decades, phenology has become an important tool by which to measure both the impact of climate change on ecosystems and the feedback of ecosystems to the climate system. However, there has been little attempt to date to systematically quantify the increase in the number of scientific publications with a focus on phenology and climate change. In order to partially address this issue, we examined the number of articles (original papers, reviews and short communications) containing the terms 'phenology' and 'climate change' in the title, abstract or keywords, published in the International Journal of Biometeorology in the 60 years since its inception in 1957. We manually inspected all issues prior to 1987 for the search terms and subsequently used the search facility on the Web of Science online database. The overall number of articles published per decade remained relatively constant (255-378) but rose rapidly to 1053 in the most recent decade (2007-2016), accompanied by an increase (41-172) in the number of articles containing the search terms. A number of factors may have contributed to this rise, including the recognition of the value of phenology as an indicator of climate change and the initiation in 2010 of a series of conferences focusing on phenology which subsequently led to two special issues of the journal. The word 'phenology' was in use from the first issue, whereas 'climate change' only emerged in 1987 and peaked in 2014. New technologies such as satellite remote sensing and the internet led to an expansion of and greater access to a growing reservoir of phenological information. The application of phenological data included determining the impact of warming of phenophases, predicting wine quality and the pollen season, demonstrating the potential for mismatch to occur and both reconstructing and forecasting climate. Even though this analysis was limited to one journal, it is likely to be indicative of a similar trend across other scientific publications.

Phenological patterns of flowering across biogeographical regions of Europe

Long-term changes of plant phenological phases determined by complex interactions of environmental factors are in the focus of recent climate impact research. There is a lack of studies on the comparison of biogeographical regions in Europe in terms of plant responses to climate. We examined the flowering phenology of plant species to identify the spatio-temporal patterns in their responses to environmental variables over the period 1970-2010. Data were collected from 12 countries along a 3000-km-long, North-South transect from northern to eastern Central Europe.Biogeographical regions of Europe were covered from Finland to Macedonia. Robust statistical methods were used to determine the most influential factors driving the changes of the beginning of flowering dates. Significant species-specific advancements in plant flowering onsets within the Continental (3 to 8.3 days), Alpine (2 to 3.8 days) and by highest magnitude in the Boreal biogeographical regions (2.2 to 9.6 days per decades) were found, while less pronounced responses were detected in the Pannonian and Mediterranean regions. While most of the other studies only use mean temperature in the models, we show that also the distribution of minimum and maximum temperatures are reasonable to consider as explanatory variable. Not just local (e.g. temperature) but large scale (e.g. North Atlantic Oscillation) climate factors, as well as altitude and latitude play significant role in the timing of flowering across biogeographical regions of Europe. Our analysis gave evidences that species show a delay in the timing of flowering with an increase in latitude (between the geographical coordinates of 40.9 and 67.9), and an advance with changing climate. The woody species (black locust and small-leaved lime) showed stronger advancements in their timing of flowering than the herbaceous species (dandelion, lily of the valley). In later decades (1991-2010), more pronounced phenological change was detected than during the earlier years (1970-1990), which indicates the increased influence of human induced higher spring temperatures in the late twentieth century.

Seventeen-year trends in spring and autumn phenophases of Betula pubescens in a boreal environment

Trends in the timing of spring and autumn phenophases of Betula pubescens were investigated in the southern, middle, and northern boreal zones in Finland. The field observations were carried out at 21 sites in the Finnish National Phenological Network in 1997-2013. The effective temperature sum of the thermal growth period, i.e. the sum of the positive differences between diurnal mean temperatures and 5 °C (ETS1), increased annually on average by 6-7 degree day units. Timing of bud burst remained constant in the southern and middle boreal zones but advanced annually by 0.5 day in the northern boreal zone. The effective temperature sum at bud burst (ETS2) showed no trend in the southern and middle boreal zones, whereas ETS2 increased on average from 20-30 to 50 degree day units in the northern boreal zone, almost to the same level as in the other zones. Increase in ETS2 indicates that the trees did not start their growth in very early spring despite warmer spring temperatures. The timing of leaf colouring and leaf fall remained almost constant in the southern boreal zones, whereas these advanced annually by 0.3 and 0.6 day in the middle boreal zone and by 0.6 and 0.4 day in the northern boreal zone, respectively. The duration of the growth period remained constant in all boreal zones. The results indicate high buffering capacity of B. pubescens against temperature changes. The study also shows the importance of the duration of phenological studies: some trends in spring phenophases had levelled out, while new trends in autumn phases had emerged after earlier studies in the same network for a shorter observation period.

Changes in autumn senescence in northern hemisphere deciduous trees: a meta-analysis of autumn phenology studies

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Many individual studies have shown that the timing of leaf senescence in boreal and temperate deciduous forests in the northern hemisphere is influenced by rising temperatures, but there is limited consensus on the magnitude, direction and spatial extent of this relationship.

METHODS

A meta-analysis was conducted of published studies from the peer-reviewed literature that reported autumn senescence dates for deciduous trees in the northern hemisphere, encompassing 64 publications with observations ranging from 1931 to 2010.

KEY RESULTS

Among the meteorological measurements examined, October temperatures were the strongest predictors of date of senescence, followed by cooling degree-days, latitude, photoperiod and, lastly, total monthly precipitation, although the strength of the relationships differed between high- and low-latitude sites. Autumn leaf senescence has been significantly more delayed at low (25° to 49°N) than high (50° to 70°N) latitudes across the northern hemisphere, with senescence across high-latitude sites more sensitive to the effects of photoperiod and low-latitude sites more sensitive to the effects of temperature. Delays in leaf senescence over time were stronger in North America compared with Europe and Asia.

CONCLUSIONS

The results indicate that leaf senescence has been delayed over time and in response to temperature, although low-latitude sites show significantly stronger delays in senescence over time than high-latitude sites. While temperature alone may be a reasonable predictor of the date of leaf senescence when examining a broad suite of sites, it is important to consider that temperature-induced changes in senescence at high-latitude sites are likely to be constrained by the influence of photoperiod. Ecosystem-level differences in the mechanisms that control the timing of leaf senescence may affect both plant community interactions and ecosystem carbon storage as global temperatures increase over the next century.

Photoperiod constraints on tree phenology, performance and migration in a warming world

Increasing temperatures should facilitate the poleward movement of species distributions through a variety of processes, including increasing the growing season length. However, in temperate and boreal latitudes, temperature is not the only cue used by trees to determine seasonality, as changes in photoperiod provide a more consistent, reliable annual signal of seasonality than temperature. Here, we discuss how day length may limit the ability of tree species to respond to climate warming in situ, focusing on the implications of photoperiodic sensing for extending the growing season and affecting plant phenology and growth, as well as the potential role of photoperiod in controlling carbon uptake and water fluxes in forests. We also review whether there are patterns across plant functional types (based on successional strategy, xylem anatomy and leaf morphology) in their sensitivity to photoperiod that we can use to predict which species or groups might be more successful in migrating as the climate warms, or may be more successfully used for forestry and agriculture through assisted migration schemes.

Modeling of bud break of Scots pine in northern Finland in 1908-2014

Bud break and height-growth of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) in the northern boreal zone in Lapland, Finland, was followed through the entire growing seasons in the periods 2001-2003 and 2008-2010 in sapling stands in two different locations in northern Finland set some 250 km apart along a latitudinal transect. Field measurements continued at the southern site also in 2011-2013. Air temperature was recorded hourly at the sites. A simple optimization algorithm (GA) was used to adjust parameters of the models predicting the timing of bud break of Scots pine in order to minimize the difference between observed and predicted dates. The models giving the best performance and century-long daily temperatures were used to reconstruct bud-break time series. The temperature observations were recorded for the period 1908-2014 in Sodankylä, which is located in-between the sapling stands in the north-south direction and for the period 1877-2014 in Karasjok, which is in Norway about 145 km north-west from the northernmost stand of this study. On average buds began to extend in the beginning of May in the southernmost stand and in mid-May in the northernmost stands, and the variation between years was in the range of 3 weeks. A simple day-length-triggered (fixed date) model predicted most accurately the date of bud break; root mean square error (RMSE) was 2 and 4 days in the northern and southern site, respectively. The reconstructed bud-break series indicated that based on temperature observations from Sodankylä, growth onset of Scots pine has clearly advanced since the 1960s, though it currently matches that of the early 1920s and early 1950s. The temperature record from Karasjok indicated a similar variation, though there was a weak linear trend advancing bud break by about 3-4 days over a 100-year period.

Alteration of the phenology of leaf senescence and fall in winter deciduous species by climate change: effects on nutrient proficiency

Leaf senescence in winter deciduous species signals the transition from the active to the dormant stage. The purpose of leaf senescence is the recovery of nutrients before the leaves fall. Photoperiod and temperature are the main cues controlling leaf senescence in winter deciduous species, with water stress imposing an additional influence. Photoperiod exerts a strict control on leaf senescence at latitudes where winters are severe and temperature gains importance in the regulation as winters become less severe. On average, climatic warming will delay and drought will advance leaf senescence, but at varying degrees depending on the species. Warming and drought thus have opposite effects on the phenology of leaf senescence, and the impact of climate change will therefore depend on the relative importance of each factor in specific regions. Warming is not expected to have a strong impact on nutrient proficiency although a slower speed of leaf senescence induced by warming could facilitate a more efficient nutrient resorption. Nutrient resorption is less efficient when the leaves senesce prematurely as a consequence of water stress. The overall effects of climate change on nutrient resorption will depend on the contrasting effects of warming and drought. Changes in nutrient resorption and proficiency will impact production in the following year, at least in early spring, because the construction of new foliage relies almost exclusively on nutrients resorbed from foliage during the preceding leaf fall. Changes in the phenology of leaf senescence will thus impact carbon uptake, but also ecosystem nutrient cycling, especially if the changes are consequence of water stress.

The influence of local spring temperature variance on temperature sensitivity of spring phenology

The impact of climate warming on the advancement of plant spring phenology has been heavily investigated over the last decade and there exists great variability among plants in their phenological sensitivity to temperature. However, few studies have explicitly linked phenological sensitivity to local climate variance. Here, we set out to test the hypothesis that the strength of phenological sensitivity declines with increased local spring temperature variance, by synthesizing results across ground observations. We assemble ground-based long-term (20-50 years) spring phenology database (PEP725 database) and the corresponding climate dataset. We find a prevalent decline in the strength of phenological sensitivity with increasing local spring temperature variance at the species level from ground observations. It suggests that plants might be less likely to track climatic warming at locations with larger local spring temperature variance. This might be related to the possibility that the frost risk could be higher in a larger local spring temperature variance and plants adapt to avoid this risk by relying more on other cues (e.g., high chill requirements, photoperiod) for spring phenology, thus suppressing phenological responses to spring warming. This study illuminates that local spring temperature variance is an understudied source in the study of phenological sensitivity and highlight the necessity of incorporating this factor to improve the predictability of plant responses to anthropogenic climate change in future studies.