Human-induced Trophic Cascades and Ecological Regime Shifts in the Baltic Sea

How will the cumulative effects of fishing and climate change affect the health and resilience of the Celtic Sea ecosystem?

Ecosystems are subject to increasing anthropogenic pressures worldwide. Assessing cumulative effects of multiple pressures and their impacts on recovery processes is a daunting scientific and technical challenge due to systems' complexity. However, this is of paramount importance in the context of ecosystem-based management of natural systems. Our study provides major insights into the assessment of cumulative effects on Northeast Atlantic ecosystems. Using an Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) tropho-dynamic model for the Celtic Sea ecosystem including 53 functional groups, we (1) assess individual and cumulative effects of fishing and climate change and (2) explore the impact of fishing intensity and climate change on ecosystem resilience. Various levels of increasing fishing intensities are simulated over the whole 21st century, by forcing the EwE model with time series of sea temperature, primary production and secondary producer's biomass from the regional POLCOMS-ERSEM climate model, under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Cumulative impacts on the ecosystem's health and its capacity to recover after the cessation of fishing activities were assessed through a set of 45 indicators (biomass-based, diversity, trait-based and habitat-based indicators), using a theoretical non-fishing and climate-constant scenario as a reference. Our results reveal climate change impacts on Boreal, pelagic species and on ecosystem stability. Fishing preferentially removes apex predators and is predicted to increase the likelihood of a regime shift by decreasing ecosystems' capacity to recover. Predicted cumulative effects are mainly additive and antagonistic but synergies are observed for high fishing effort levels, and finally climate change had minor impacts on ecosystem recovery to fishing. Fishing is shown to be the main driver of cumulative impacts and of ecosystem resilience over the next decades. Our results suggest that slight reduction in fishing effort is enough to compensate the impact of climate change. Future research should then be directed towards exploring and evaluating ecosystem-based climate-adaptive fisheries management strategies.

Changes in Atlantic climatic regulation mechanisms that underlie mesozooplankton biomass loss in the northern Baltic Sea

The effects of climate-induced, long-term changes on mesozooplankton biomasses were studied based on monitoring data collected since 1966 in the northern Baltic Sea. We found that the biomasses of marine and brackish mesozooplankton had decreased significantly from 1966 to 2019, and a remarkable biomass and functional biodiversity loss took place in the mesozooplankton community. Our results put emphasis on the impact of two climate-driven regime shifts for the region's mesozooplankton community. The regime shifts took place in 1975 and 1976 and in 1989 and 1990, and they were the most important factor behind the abrupt biomass changes for marine mesozooplankton and total and marine Copepoda. Only the latter regime shift influenced the biomasses of brackish Copepoda, marine Cladocera, and total Rotifera. The decreasing length of the ice-cover period drove the decrease of the biomass of limnic Limnocalanus macrurus (Copepoda), while the winter North Atlantic Oscillation was behind biomass changes in the total and the brackish Cladocera. These findings may have important implications for planktivorous fish, such as Baltic herring, particularly in terms of their impact on commercial fishing.

Habitats and Biotopes in the German Baltic Sea

To maintain or enhance biodiversity and sea floor integrity, mapping benthic habitats is a mandatory requirement in compliance with the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD). The EU Commission Decision distinguishes between Broad Habitat Types (BHTs) and Other Habitat Types (OHTs). At the regional level, biotopes in the Baltic Sea region are classified according to the HELCOM underwater biotope and habitat classification (HUB). In this study, the habitats and their benthic communities were mapped for the entire German Baltic Sea at a high spatial resolution of 1 km. In two nature conservation areas of the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) as well as selected focus areas in the coastal waters, the resolution we provide is even more detailed at 50 × 50 m. Hydroacoustic data recording and benthological surveys (using bottom grabs, underwater towing camera technology, and diver sampling) helped identify biotopes in high resolution. Based on these data, together with additional data acquired since 2010 (a total of over 7000 stations and transect sections), we were able to spatially delineate benthic biotopes and their communities via predictive habitat modelling. The results are provided as full-coverage maps each for BHT, OHT, and HUB (9 classes of BHTs, 5 classes of OHTs, and 84 classes of HUB) with a level of spatial detail that does not yet exist for the Baltic Sea, and they form an essential basis for future monitoring, status assessments, and protection and management measures.

New insights into the recent collapse of Eastern Baltic cod from historical data on stock health

The Eastern Baltic cod (Gadus morhua) stock is currently in a very poor state, with low biomass and adverse trends in several life history and demographic parameters. This raises concern over whether and to what level recovery is possible. Here, we look for new insights from a historical perspective, extending the time series of various stock health indicators back to the 1940s, i.e. to the beginning of intensive exploitation of the Eastern Baltic cod. The historical data confirm that the stock deterioration in recent years is unprecedented, as all indicators are presently in their worst states on record. Cod body condition and energy reserves were equally low in the 1940s-1950s, accompanied by high parasitic liver worm infection, comparable to that measured in recent years. However, other stock parameters (size structure, size at maturity, stock distribution) are currently in their worst states over the past 80 years. In contrast, the state of cod in the 1970s to early 1990s that is often perceived as a desirable target, was exceptional, with the most favorable indicator levels in the time series. Long-term observation data reveal concurrent or asynchronous trends in different indicators of stock health and to what extent these have coincided with changes in possible external drivers. In this way, the extended time series contribute to ongoing research on understanding the collapse of the cod and its recovery potential.

Exploring multiple stressor effects with Ecopath, Ecosim, and Ecospace: Research designs, modeling techniques, and future directions

Understanding the cumulative effects of multiple stressors is a research priority in environmental science. Ecological models are a key component of tackling this challenge because they can simulate interactions between the components of an ecosystem. Here, we ask, how has the popular modeling platform Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) been used to model human impacts related to climate change, land and sea use, pollution, and invasive species? We conducted a literature review encompassing 166 studies covering stressors other than fishing mostly in aquatic ecosystems. The most modeled stressors were physical climate change (60 studies), species introductions (22), habitat loss (21), and eutrophication (20), using a range of modeling techniques. Despite this comprehensive coverage, we identified four gaps that must be filled to harness the potential of EwE for studying multiple stressor effects. First, only 12% of studies investigated three or more stressors, with most studies focusing on single stressors. Furthermore, many studies modeled only one of many pathways through which each stressor is known to affect ecosystems. Second, various methods have been applied to define environmental response functions representing the effects of single stressors on species groups. These functions can have a large effect on the simulated ecological changes, but best practices for deriving them are yet to emerge. Third, human dimensions of environmental change - except for fisheries - were rarely considered. Fourth, only 3% of studies used statistical research designs that allow attribution of simulated ecosystem changes to stressors' direct effects and interactions, such as factorial (computational) experiments. None made full use of the statistical possibilities that arise when simulations can be repeated many times with controlled changes to the inputs. We argue that all four gaps are feasibly filled by integrating ecological modeling with advances in other subfields of environmental science and in computational statistics.

A coastal Ramsar site on transition to hypoxia and tracking pollution sources: a case study of south-west coast of India

Coastal lakes and estuaries are considered economic drivers for coastal communities by delivering invaluable economic and ecosystem services. The coastal ecosystems are facing recurrent hypoxia events (dissolved oxygen; DO < 2.0 mg L^-1) and are emerging as a major threat to ecosystem structure and functioning. The Ashtamudi Lake, (area = 56 km²), is one of the Ramsar sites in the State of Kerala and located on the SW coast of India. The waterways are extensively used for backwater tourism and for fishery activities. This paper discusses the spatio-temporal variation of water quality attributes with emphasis on hypoxia during non-monsoon and monsoon seasons. The extent of hypoxia on fishery diversity was discussed. The Southern Zone, adjacent to the urban area, shows the hypoxic condition with higher concentration of BOD, NO₃-N, and NH₄-N. The hypoxic condition is largely limited to the Southern Zone in both seasons. The occurrence of low DO in the lake is highly related to salinity and organic load in the lake system. The tracking of pollution sources in the lake system was also done through identification of pollution potential zones and found that catchments adjacent to Southern and Western Zones (urban regions) are the major source of pollution. The study suggests that hypoxia is chiefly attributed to anthropogenic interventions in the form of discharge of wastes into the lake causing overloading of nutrients and organic effluents, decrease in the freshwater supply, the absence of proper freshwater mixing or dilution, and effluent discharge from nearby urban centers.

Niche partitioning between planktivorous fish in the pelagic Baltic Sea assessed by DNA metabarcoding, qPCR and microscopy

Marine communities undergo rapid changes related to human-induced ecosystem pressures. The Baltic Sea pelagic food web has experienced several regime shifts during the past century, resulting in a system where competition between the dominant planktivorous mesopredatory clupeid fish species herring (Clupea harengus) and sprat (Sprattus sprattus) and the rapidly increasing stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) population is assumed to be high. Here, we investigate diet overlap between these three planktivorous fishes in the Baltic Sea, utilizing DNA metabarcoding on the 18S rRNA gene and the COI gene, targeted qPCR, and microscopy. Our results show niche differentiation between clupeids and stickleback, and highlight that rotifers play an important role in this pattern, as a resource that is not being used by the clupeids nor by other zooplankton in spring. We further show that all the diet assessment methods used in this study are consistent, but also that DNA metabarcoding describes the plankton-fish link at the highest taxonomic resolution. This study suggests that rotifers and other understudied soft-bodied prey may have an important function in the pelagic food web and that the growing population of pelagic stickleback may be supported by the open feeding niche offered by the rotifers.

Heat sensitivity of first host and cercariae may restrict parasite transmission in a warming sea

To predict global warming impacts on parasitism, we should describe the thermal tolerance of all players in host-parasite systems. Complex life-cycle parasites such as trematodes are of particular interest since they can drive complex ecological changes. This study evaluates the net response to temperature of the infective larval stage of Himasthla elongata, a parasite inhabiting the southwestern Baltic Sea. The thermal sensitivity of (i) the infected and uninfected first intermediate host (Littorina littorea) and (ii) the cercarial emergence, survival, self-propelling, encystment, and infection capacity to the second intermediate host (Mytilus edulis sensu lato) were examined. We found that infection by the trematode rendered the gastropod more susceptible to elevated temperatures representing warm summer events in the region. At 22 °C, cercarial emergence and infectivity were at their optimum while cercarial survival was shortened, narrowing the time window for successful mussel infection. Faster out-of-host encystment occurred at increasing temperatures. After correcting the cercarial emergence and infectivity for the temperature-specific gastropod survival, we found that warming induces net adverse effects on the trematode transmission to the bivalve host. The findings suggest that gastropod and cercariae mortality, as a tradeoff for the emergence and infectivity, will hamper the possibility for trematodes to flourish in a warming ocean.

Eutrophication-induced regime shifts reduced sediment burial ability for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons: Evidence from Lake Taihu in China

Regime shifts from a vegetated state with clear water to a turbid state with high contents of phytoplankton and suspended particles have been found in numerous waters worldwide. The fate and risks of hydrophobic organic contaminants (HOCs) in such waters may be altered, and the effects on burial ability of HOCs remain unknown. Influences of regime shifts on sediment burial ability for 16 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) (defined as burial/emission ratio) were investigated based on the evidence from the third largest freshwater lake (Lake Taihu) in China. The results of δ¹³C, δ¹⁵N, atomic ratio of C_org/N, and the content of total organic carbon testing and historical data suggested that the regime shifted abruptly from macrophytes to phytoplankton dominance in Lake Taihu in the late 1980s. The annual burial ability for the PAHs decreased gradually over time by 63.2%-98.9% in the period from 1980 to 2016. Meanwhile, the decrease rates of PAH burial ability varied from -1.65% y^-1 to -2.98% y^-1, depending on the hydrophobicity of the compound. The PAH burial ability varied with the dominant primary producers associated with the trophic level index of the water column. Regime shifts had a stronger influence on the burial ability of PAHs with higher hydrophobicity. This study helps to understand the fate and potential risks of HOCs in waters due to eutrophication-induced regime shifts.

Conceptualizing alternate regimes in a large floodplain-river ecosystem: Water clarity, invasive fish, and floodplain vegetation

Regime shifts - persistent changes in the structure and function of an ecosystem - are well-documented for some ecosystems and have informed research and management of these ecosystems. In floodplain-river ecosystems, there is growing interest from restoration practitioners in ecological resilience, yet regime shifts remain poorly understood in these ecosystems. To understand how regime shifts may apply to floodplain-river ecosystems, we synthesize our understanding of ecosystem dynamics using an alternate regimes conceptual framework. We present three plausible sets of alternate regimes relevant to natural resource management interests within the Upper Mississippi River and Illinois River. These alternate regimes include: 1) a clear water and abundant vegetation regime vs. a turbid water and sparse vegetation regime in lentic, off-channel areas, 2) a diverse native fish community regime vs. an invasive-dominated fish community regime, and 3) a regime characterized by a diverse and dynamic mosaic of floodplain vegetation types vs. one characterized as a persistent invasive wet meadow monoculture. For each set of potential alternate regimes, we review available literature to synthesize known or hypothesized feedback mechanisms that reinforce regimes, controlling variables that drive regime transitions, and current restoration pathways. Our conceptual models provide preliminary support for the existence of alternate regimes in floodplain-river ecosystems. Quantitatively testing hypotheses contained within the conceptual model are important next steps in evaluating the model. Ultimately, the synthesis and evaluation of alternate regimes can inform the utility of resilience concepts in restoration and management on the Upper Mississippi River and Illinois River and improve our understanding of ecosystem dynamics in other large, heavily managed floodplain-river ecosystems.

Temporal Trends (1981-2013) of Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances and Total Fluorine in Baltic cod (Gadus morhua)

Temporal trends from 1981 to 2013 of 28 per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) were investigated in liver tissue of cod (Gadus morhua) sampled near southeast Gotland, in the Baltic Sea. A total of 10 PFASs were detected, with ∑₂₈ PFAS geometric mean concentrations ranging from 6.03 to 23.9 ng/g ww. Perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) was the predominant PFAS, which increased at a rate of 3.4% per year. Most long-chain perfluoroalkyl carboxylic acids increased at rates of 3.9 to 7.3% per year except for perfluorooctanoate (PFOA), which did not change significantly over time. The perfluoroalkyl acid precursors perfluorooctane sulfonamide (FOSA) and 6:2 fluorotelomer sulfonic acid were detected, of which the former (FOSA) declined at a rate of -4.4% per year, possibly reflecting its phase-out starting in 2000. An alternate time trend analysis from 2000 to 2013 produced slightly different results, with most compounds increasing at slower rates compared to the entire study period. An exception was perfluorohexane sulfonate (PFHxS), increasing at a faster rate of 3.7% measured from 2000 on, compared to the 3.0% per year measured starting from 1981. Analysis of the total fluorine content of the samples revealed large amounts of unidentified fluorine; however, its composition (organic or inorganic) remains unclear. Significant negative correlations were found between concentrations of individual PFASs (with the exception of PFOS) and liver somatic index. In addition, body length was negatively correlated with PFOA and perfluorononanoate, but positively correlated with perfluorododecanoate (PFDoDA) and FOSA. Additional studies on endocrine, immunological, and metabolic effects of PFAS in marine fish are essential to assess the environmental risk of these substances. Environ Toxicol Chem 2020;39:300-309. © 2019 SETAC.

Age-related changes in size, bone microarchitecture and volumetric bone mineral density of the mandible in the harbor seal (Phoca vitulina)

Detailed knowledge of age-related changes in the structure and mineralization of bones is important for interpreting osseous changes in wild mammals caused by exposure to environmental contaminants. This study analyzed mandibular size, microarchitecture and volumetric bone mineral density (vBMD) in harbor seals (n = 93, age range 0.5 months to 25 years) from the German North Sea. Bone microarchitecture and vBMD were assessed using high-resolution peripheral quantitative computed tomography (HR-pQCT). Significant differences were observed between the analyzed age classes (i) young juveniles (0.5–10 months), (ii) yearlings (12–23 months), and (iii) adults (12–25 years) for several of the variables, indicating an overall increase in cortical and trabecular area, cortical thickness and total and cortical vBMD with age. Furthermore, for juvenile animals (≤ 23 months), significant positive correlations with age were observed for mandible length and perimeter, cortical area, cortical thickness, trabecular separation, and total and cortical vBMD. The findings demonstrate a rapid increase in overall size, cortical dimensions and the degree of mineralization of the harbor seal mandible during the first two years after birth. Negative correlations with age existed for trabecular number and thickness as well as for trabecular bone volume fraction in the juveniles. The findings suggest a reduction in trabecular bone volume fraction with age, due to the bone trabeculae becoming thinner, less numerous and more widely spaced. Given the strong age dependence of most analyzed parameters, it is recommended to standardize samples with respect to age in future studies comparing microarchitecture and mineralization of harbor seal mandibles from different populations or different collection periods.

Synergy of Satellite, In Situ and Modelled Data for Addressing the Scarcity of Water Quality Information for Eutrophication Assessment and Monitoring of Swedish Coastal Waters

Monthly CHL-a and Secchi Depth (SD) data derived from the full mission data of the Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS; 2002–2012) were analysed along a horizontal transect from the inner Bråviken bay and out into the open sea. The CHL-a values were calibrated using an algorithm derived from Swedish lakes. Then, calibrated Chl-a and Secchi Depth (SD) estimates were extracted from MERIS data along the transect and compared to conventional monitoring data as well as to data from the Swedish Coastal zone Model (SCM), providing physico-biogeochemical parameters such as temperature, nutrients, Chlorophyll-a (CHL-a) and Secchi depth (SD). A high negative correlation was observed between satellite-derived CHL-a and SD (ρ = −0.91), similar to the in situ relationship established for several coastal gradients in the Baltic proper. We also demonstrate that the validated MERIS-based estimates and data from the SCM showed strong correlations for the variables CHL-a, SD and total nitrogen (TOTN), which improved significantly when analysed on a monthly basis across basins. The relationship between satellite-derived CHL-a and modelled TOTN was also evaluated on a monthly basis using least-square linear regression models. The predictive power of the models was strong for the period May-November (R2: 0.58–0.87), and the regression algorithm for summer was almost identical to the algorithm generated from in situ data in Himmerfjärden bay. The strong correlation between SD and modelled TOTN confirms that SD is a robust and reliable indicator to evaluate changes in eutrophication in the Baltic proper which can be assessed using remote sensing data. Amongst all three assessed methods, only MERIS CHL-a was able to correctly depict the pattern of phytoplankton phenology that is typical for the Baltic proper. The approach of combining satellite data and physio-biogeochemical models could serve as a powerful tool and value-adding complement to the scarcely available in situ data from national monitoring programs. In particular, satellite data will help to reduce uncertainties in long-term monitoring data due to its improved measurement frequency.

Ecological and functional consequences of coastal ocean acidification: Perspectives from the Baltic-Skagerrak System

Ocean temperatures are rising; species are shifting poleward, and pH is falling (ocean acidification, OA). We summarise current understanding of OA in the brackish Baltic-Skagerrak System, focussing on the direct, indirect and interactive effects of OA with other anthropogenic drivers on marine biogeochemistry, organisms and ecosystems. Substantial recent advances reveal a pattern of stronger responses (positive or negative) of species than ecosystems, more positive responses at lower trophic levels and strong indirect interactions in food-webs. Common emergent themes were as follows: OA drives planktonic systems toward the microbial loop, reducing energy transfer to zooplankton and fish; and nutrient/food availability ameliorates negative impacts of OA. We identify several key areas for further research, notably the need for OA-relevant biogeochemical and ecosystem models, and understanding the ecological and evolutionary capacity of Baltic-Skagerrak ecosystems to respond to OA and other anthropogenic drivers.

Four decades of functional community change reveals gradual trends and low interlinkage across trophic groups in a large marine ecosystem

The rate at which biological diversity is altered on both land and in the sea, makes temporal community development a critical and fundamental part of understanding global change. With advancements in trait-based approaches, the focus on the impact of temporal change has shifted towards its potential effects on the functioning of the ecosystems. Our mechanistic understanding of and ability to predict community change is still impeded by the lack of knowledge in long-term functional dynamics that span several trophic levels. To address this, we assessed species richness and multiple dimensions of functional diversity and dynamics of two interacting key organism groups in the marine food web: fish and zoobenthos. We utilized unique time series-data spanning four decades, from three environmentally distinct coastal areas in the Baltic Sea, and assembled trait information on six traits per organism group covering aspects of feeding, living habit, reproduction and life history. We identified gradual long-term trends, rather than abrupt changes in functional diversity (trait richness, evenness, dispersion) trait turnover, and overall multi-trait community composition. The linkage between fish and zoobenthic functional community change, in terms of correlation in long-term trends, was weak, with timing of changes being area and trophic group specific. Developments of fish and zoobenthos traits, particularly size (increase in small size for both groups) and feeding habits (e.g. increase in generalist feeding for fish and scavenging or predation for zoobenthos), suggest changes in trophic pathways. We summarize our findings by highlighting three key aspects for understanding functional change across trophic groups: (a) decoupling of species from trait richness, (b) decoupling of richness from density and (c) determining of turnover and multi-trait dynamics. We therefore argue for quantifying change in multiple functional measures to help assessments of biodiversity change move beyond taxonomy and single trophic groups.

Complementary methods assessing short and long-term prey of a marine top predator ‒ Application to the grey seal-fishery conflict in the Baltic Sea

The growing grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) population in the Baltic Sea has created conflicts with local fisheries, comparable to similar emerging problems worldwide. Adequate information on the foraging habits is a requirement for responsible management of the seal population. We investigated the applicability of available dietary assessment methods by comparing morphological analysis and DNA metabarcoding of gut contents (short-term diet; n = 129/125 seals, respectively), and tissue chemical markers i.e. fatty acid (FA) profiles of blubber and stable isotopes (SIs) of liver and muscle (mid- or long-term diet; n = 108 seals for the FA and SI markers). The methods provided complementary information. Short-term methods indicated prey species and revealed dietary differences between age groups and areas but for limited time period. In the central Baltic, herring was the main prey, while in the Gulf of Finland percid and cyprinid species together comprised the largest part of the diet. Perch was also an important prey in the western Baltic Proper. The DNA analysis provided firm identification of many prey species, which were neglected or identified only at species group level by morphological analysis. Liver SIs distinguished spatial foraging patterns and identified potentially migrated individuals, whereas blubber FAs distinguished individuals frequently utilizing certain types of prey. Tissue chemical markers of adult males suggested specialized feeding to certain areas and prey, which suggest that these individuals are especially prone to cause economic losses for fisheries. We recommend combined analyses of gut contents and tissue chemical markers as dietary monitoring methodology of aquatic top predators to support an optimal ecosystem-based management.

MERIS observations of phytoplankton phenology in the Baltic Sea

The historical data from the MEdium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS) is an invaluable archive for studying global waters from inland lakes to open oceans. Although the MERIS sensor ceased to operate in April 2012, the data capacities are now re-established through the recently launched Sentinel-3 Ocean and Land Colour Instrument (OLCI). The development of a consistent time series for investigating phytoplankton phenology features is crucial if the potential of MERIS and OLCI data is to be fully exploited for inland water monitoring. This study presents a time series of phytoplankton abundance and bloom spatial extent for the highly eutrophic inland water of the Baltic Sea using the 10-year MERIS archive (2002-2011) and a chlorophyll-a based Summed Positive Peaks (SPP) algorithm. A gradient approach in conjunction with the histogram analysis was used to determine a global threshold from the entire collection of SPP images for identifying phytoplankton blooms. This allows spatio-temporal dynamics of daily bloom coverage, timing, phytoplankton abundance and spatial extent to be investigated for each Baltic basin. Furthermore, a number of meteorological and hydrological variables, including spring excess phosphate, summer sea surface temperature and photosynthetically active radiation, were explored using boosted regression trees and generalised additive models to understand the ecological response of phytoplankton assemblages to environmental perturbations and potential predictor variables of summer blooms. The results indicate that the surface layer excess phosphate available in February and March had paramount importance over all other variables considered in governing summer bloom abundance in the major Baltic basins. This finding allows new insights into the development of early warning systems for summer phytoplankton blooms in the Baltic Sea and elsewhere.

Building university-based boundary organisations that facilitate impacts on environmental policy and practice

Responding to modern day environmental challenges for societal well-being and prosperity necessitates the integration of science into policy and practice. This has spurred the development of novel institutional structures among research organisations aimed at enhancing the impact of environmental science on policy and practice. However, such initiatives are seldom evaluated and even in cases where evaluations are undertaken, the results are rarely made publicly available. As such there is very little empirically grounded guidance available to inform other organisations in this regard. To help address this, the aim of this study is to evaluate the Baltic Eye Project at Stockholm University–a unique team consisting of researchers from different fields, science communicators, journalists and policy analysts–working collectively to support evidence-informed decision-making relating to the sustainable management of the Baltic Sea environment. Specifically, through qualitative interviews, we (1) identify the impacts achieved by the Baltic Eye Project; (2) understand the challenges and barriers experienced throughout the Baltic Eye Project; and (3) highlight the key features that are needed within research organisations to enhance the impact of science on policy and practice. Results show that despite only operating for three years, the Baltic Eye Project has achieved demonstrable impacts on a range of levels: impacts on policy and practice, impacts to individuals working within the organisation and impacts to the broader University. We also identify a range of barriers that have limited impacts to date, such as a lack of clear goals at the establishment of the Baltic Eye Project and existing metrics of academic impact (e.g. number of publications). Finally, based on the experiences of employees at the Baltic Eye Project, we identify the key organisational, individual, financial, material, practical, political, and social features of university-based boundary organisations that have impact on policy and practice. In doing so this paper provides empirically-derived guidance to help other research organisations increase their capacity to achieve tangible impacts on environmental policy and practice.

The Baltic Sea Atlantis: An integrated end-to-end modelling framework evaluating ecosystem-wide effects of human-induced pressures

Achieving good environmental status in the Baltic Sea region requires decision support tools which are based on scientific knowledge across multiple disciplines. Such tools should integrate the complexity of the ecosystem and enable exploration of different natural and anthropogenic pressures such as climate change, eutrophication and fishing pressures in order to compare alternative management strategies. We present a new framework, with a Baltic implementation of the spatially-explicit end-to-end Atlantis ecosystem model linked to two external models, to explore the different pressures on the marine ecosystem. The HBM-ERGOM initializes the Atlantis model with high-resolution physical-chemical-biological and hydrodynamic information while the FISHRENT model analyses the fisheries economics of the output of commercial fish biomass for the Atlantis terminal projection year. The Baltic Atlantis model composes 29 sub-areas, 9 vertical layers and 30 biological functional groups. The balanced calibration provides realistic levels of biomass for, among others, known stock sizes of top predators and of key fish species. Furthermore, it gives realistic levels of phytoplankton biomass and shows reasonable diet compositions and geographical distribution patterns for the functional groups. By simulating several scenarios of nutrient load reductions on the ecosystem and testing sensitivity to different fishing pressures, we show that the model is sensitive to those changes and capable of evaluating the impacts on different trophic levels, fish stocks, and fisheries associated with changed benthic oxygen conditions. We conclude that the Baltic Atlantis forms an initial basis for strategic management evaluation suited for conducting medium to long term ecosystem assessments which are of importance for a number of pan-Baltic stakeholders in relation to anthropogenic pressures such as eutrophication, climate change and fishing pressure, as well as changed biological interactions between functional groups.

When optimization for governing human-environment tipping elements is neither sustainable nor safe

Optimizing economic welfare in environmental governance has been criticized for delivering short-term gains at the expense of long-term environmental degradation. Different from economic optimization, the concepts of sustainability and the more recent safe operating space have been used to derive policies in environmental governance. However, a formal comparison between these three policy paradigms is still missing, leaving policy makers uncertain which paradigm to apply. Here, we develop a better understanding of their interrelationships, using a stylized model of human-environment tipping elements. We find that no paradigm guarantees fulfilling requirements imposed by another paradigm and derive simple heuristics for the conditions under which these trade-offs occur. We show that the absence of such a master paradigm is of special relevance for governing real-world tipping systems such as climate, fisheries, and farming, which may reside in a parameter regime where economic optimization is neither sustainable nor safe.

The Baltic Sea as a time machine for the future coastal ocean

Coastal global oceans are expected to undergo drastic changes driven by climate change and increasing anthropogenic pressures in coming decades. Predicting specific future conditions and assessing the best management strategies to maintain ecosystem integrity and sustainable resource use are difficult, because of multiple interacting pressures, uncertain projections, and a lack of test cases for management. We argue that the Baltic Sea can serve as a time machine to study consequences and mitigation of future coastal perturbations, due to its unique combination of an early history of multistressor disturbance and ecosystem deterioration and early implementation of cross-border environmental management to address these problems. The Baltic Sea also stands out in providing a strong scientific foundation and accessibility to long-term data series that provide a unique opportunity to assess the efficacy of management actions to address the breakdown of ecosystem functions. Trend reversals such as the return of top predators, recovering fish stocks, and reduced input of nutrient and harmful substances could be achieved only by implementing an international, cooperative governance structure transcending its complex multistate policy setting, with integrated management of watershed and sea. The Baltic Sea also demonstrates how rapidly progressing global pressures, particularly warming of Baltic waters and the surrounding catchment area, can offset the efficacy of current management approaches. This situation calls for management that is (i) conservative to provide a buffer against regionally unmanageable global perturbations, (ii) adaptive to react to new management challenges, and, ultimately, (iii) multisectorial and integrative to address conflicts associated with economic trade-offs.

Variation in salinity tolerance between and within anadromous subpopulations of pike (Esox 1ucius)

Environmental heterogeneity is a key determinant of genetic and phenotypic diversity. Stable and homogenous environments tends to result in evolution of specialism and local adaptations, while temporally unpredictable environments may maintain a diversity of specialists, promote generalist strategies, or favour diversified bet hedging strategies. We compared salinity tolerance between two anadromous subpopulations of pike (Esox Lucius) that utilize freshwater spawning sites with different salinity regimes. Eggs from each population were artificially fertilized and incubated in a salinity gradient (0, 3, 5, 7, and 9 psu) using a split-brood design. Effects on embryonic development, hatching success, survival of larvae, and fry body length were compared between populations and families. The population naturally spawning in the stable freshwater habitat showed signs of specialization for freshwater spawning. The population exposed to fluctuating selective pressure in a spawning area with occasional brackish water intrusions tolerated higher salinities and displayed considerable variation in reaction norms. Genetic differences and plasticity of salinity tolerance may enable populations to cope with changes in salinity regimes associated with future climate change. That geographically adjacent subpopulations can constitute separate units with different genetic characteristics must be considered in management and conservation efforts to avoid potentially negative effects of genetic admixture on population fitness and persistence.

Shift of grey seal subspecies boundaries in response to climate, culling and conservation

Identifying the processes that drive changes in the abundance and distribution of natural populations is a central theme in ecology and evolution. Many species of marine mammals have experienced dramatic changes in abundance and distribution due to climatic fluctuations and anthropogenic impacts. However, thanks to conservation efforts, some of these species have shown remarkable population recovery and are now recolonizing their former ranges. Here, we use zooarchaeological, demographic and genetic data to examine processes of colonization, local extinction and recolonization of the two northern European grey seal subspecies inhabiting the Baltic Sea and North Sea. The zooarchaeological and genetic data suggest that the two subspecies diverged shortly after the formation of the Baltic Sea approximately 4200 years bp, probably through a gradual shift to different breeding habitats and phenologies. By comparing genetic data from 19th century pre-extinction material with that from seals currently recolonizing their past range, we observed a marked spatiotemporal shift in subspecies boundaries, with increasing encroachment of North Sea seals on areas previously occupied by the Baltic Sea subspecies. Further, both demographic and genetic data indicate that the two subspecies have begun to overlap geographically and are hybridizing in a narrow contact zone. Our findings provide new insights into the processes of colonization, extinction and recolonization and have important implications for the management of grey seals across northern Europe.

Regime shifts in marine communities: a complex systems perspective on food web dynamics

Species composition and habitats are changing at unprecedented rates in the world's oceans, potentially causing entire food webs to shift to structurally and functionally different regimes. Despite the severity of these regime shifts, elucidating the precise nature of their underlying processes has remained difficult. We address this challenge with a new analytic approach to detect and assess the relative strength of different driving processes in food webs. Our study draws on complexity theory, and integrates the network-centric exponential random graph modelling (ERGM) framework developed within the social sciences with community ecology. In contrast to previous research, this approach makes clear assumptions of direction of causality and accommodates a dynamic perspective on the emergence of food webs. We apply our approach to analysing food webs of the Baltic Sea before and after a previously reported regime shift. Our results show that the dominant food web processes have remained largely the same, although we detect changes in their magnitudes. The results indicate that the reported regime shift may not be a system-wide shift, but instead involve a limited number of species. Our study emphasizes the importance of community-wide analysis on marine regime shifts and introduces a novel approach to examine food webs.

The Spatial Dynamics of Predators and the Benefits and Costs of Sharing Information

Predators of all kinds, be they lions hunting in the Serengeti or fishermen searching for their catch, display various collective strategies. A common strategy is to share information about the location of prey. However, depending on the spatial characteristics and mobility of predators and prey, information sharing can either improve or hinder individual success. Here, our goal is to investigate the interacting effects of space and information sharing on predation efficiency, represented by the expected rate at which prey are found and consumed. We derive a feeding functional response that accounts for both spatio-temporal heterogeneity and communication, and validate this mathematical analysis with a computational agent-based model. This agent-based model has an explicit yet minimal representation of space, as well as information sharing about the location of prey. The analytical model simplifies predator behavior into a few discrete states and one essential trade-off, between the individual benefit of acquiring information and the cost of creating spatial and temporal correlation between predators. Despite the absence of an explicit spatial dimension in these equations, they quantitatively predict the predator consumption rates measured in the agent-based simulations across the explored parameter space. Together, the mathematical analysis and agent-based simulations identify the conditions for when there is a benefit to sharing information, and also when there is a cost.

When should we work together and when should we work alone? This question is central to our efforts to understand social and ecological systems alike, from lions hunting in the Serengeti to fishermen searching for their catch. Here, we develop a mathematical modeling framework to identify the essential spatial factors controlling the benefits and costs of sharing information. Our approach marries computation with mathematical analysis, and our results highlight that it is only under certain spatial conditions that information sharing is a useful cooperative strategy. Notably, we find conditions for which fully collective and fully individual search are both attractive.

Has eutrophication promoted forage fish production in the Baltic Sea?

Reducing anthropogenic nutrient inputs is a major policy goal for restoring good environmental status of coastal marine ecosystems. However, it is unclear to what extent reducing nutrients would also lower fish production and fisheries yields. Empirical examples of changes in nutrient loads and concurrent fish production can provide useful insights to this question. In this paper, we investigate to what extent a multi-fold increase in nutrient loads from the 1950s to 1980s enhanced forage fish production in the Baltic Sea. We use monitoring data on fish stock dynamics covering the period of the nutrient increase, combined with nutrient concentrations from a 3-dimensional coupled physical-biogeochemical ocean model. The results suggest that nutrient enrichment enhanced the biomass level of forage fish by up to 50 % in some years and areas due to increased body weight of fish. However, the trends in fish biomasses were generally decoupled from changes in nutrient concentrations.

Human responses to social-ecological traps

Social-ecological (SE) traps refer to persistent mismatches between the responses of people, or organisms, and their social and ecological conditions that are undesirable from a sustainability perspective. Until now, the occurrence of SE traps is primarily explained from a lack of adaptive capacity; not much attention is paid to other causal factors. In our article, we address this concern by theorizing the variety of human responses to SE traps and the effect of these responses on trap dynamics. Besides (adaptive) capacities, we theorize desires, abilities and opportunities as important additional drivers to explain the diversity of human responses to traps. Using these theoretical concepts, we construct a typology of human responses to SE traps, and illustrate its empirical relevance with three cases of SE traps: Swedish Baltic Sea fishery; amaXhosa rural livelihoods; and Pamir smallholder farming. We conclude with a discussion of how attention to the diversity in human response to SE traps may inform future academic research and planned interventions to prevent or dissolve SE traps.

Mussels of a marginal population affect the patterns of ambient macrofauna: A case study from the Baltic Sea

In contemporary ecosystems, organisms are increasingly confronted with suboptimal living conditions. We aimed to understand the role of ecosystem engineering species in suboptimal habitats from a population inhabiting the species range margin in naturally stressful conditions. We determined the impact of 2-4 cm sized patches of dwarfed mussels Mytilus trossulus close to its lower salinity limit in the North-Eastern Baltic Sea, on epibenthic community patterns. Mussels affected total macrofaunal abundance and biomass and the taxonomic and functional community structure based on abundances, as well as the species composition of macrofauna. Mussels did not affect ephemeral algae or sediment chlorophyll content, but increased the abundance, biomass, richness, and diversity of grazers, within a radius approximately twelve times the size of mussel patches. We can expect marginal populations of ecosystem engineers in suboptimal habitats to contribute to spatial heterogeneity in biotic patterns and eventual ecosystem stability.

Quantifying the Adaptive Cycle

The adaptive cycle was proposed as a conceptual model to portray patterns of change in complex systems. Despite the model having potential for elucidating change across systems, it has been used mainly as a metaphor, describing system dynamics qualitatively. We use a quantitative approach for testing premises (reorganisation, conservatism, adaptation) in the adaptive cycle, using Baltic Sea phytoplankton communities as an example of such complex system dynamics. Phytoplankton organizes in recurring spring and summer blooms, a well-established paradigm in planktology and succession theory, with characteristic temporal trajectories during blooms that may be consistent with adaptive cycle phases. We used long-term (1994–2011) data and multivariate analysis of community structure to assess key components of the adaptive cycle. Specifically, we tested predictions about: reorganisation: spring and summer blooms comprise distinct community states; conservatism: community trajectories during individual adaptive cycles are conservative; and adaptation: phytoplankton species during blooms change in the long term. All predictions were supported by our analyses. Results suggest that traditional ecological paradigms such as phytoplankton successional models have potential for moving the adaptive cycle from a metaphor to a framework that can improve our understanding how complex systems organize and reorganize following collapse. Quantifying reorganization, conservatism and adaptation provides opportunities to cope with the intricacies and uncertainties associated with fast ecological change, driven by shifting system controls. Ultimately, combining traditional ecological paradigms with heuristics of complex system dynamics using quantitative approaches may help refine ecological theory and improve our understanding of the resilience of ecosystems.

An empirical model of the Baltic Sea reveals the importance of social dynamics for ecological regime shifts

Regime shifts triggered by human activities and environmental changes have led to significant ecological and socioeconomic consequences in marine and terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. Ecological processes and feedbacks associated with regime shifts have received considerable attention, but human individual and collective behavior is rarely treated as an integrated component of such shifts. Here, we used generalized modeling to develop a coupled social-ecological model that integrated rich social and ecological data to investigate the role of social dynamics in the 1980s Baltic Sea cod boom and collapse. We showed that psychological, economic, and regulatory aspects of fisher decision making, in addition to ecological interactions, contributed both to the temporary persistence of the cod boom and to its subsequent collapse. These features of the social-ecological system also would have limited the effectiveness of stronger fishery regulations. Our results provide quantitative, empirical evidence that incorporating social dynamics into models of natural resources is critical for understanding how resources can be managed sustainably. We also show that generalized modeling, which is well-suited to collaborative model development and does not require detailed specification of causal relationships between system variables, can help tackle the complexities involved in creating and analyzing social-ecological models.

Ecology, evolution, and management strategies of northern pike populations in the Baltic Sea

Baltic Sea populations of the northern pike (Esox lucius) have declined since the 1990s, and they face additional challenges due to ongoing climate change. Pike in the Baltic Sea spawn either in coastal bays or in freshwater streams and wetlands. Pike recruited in freshwater have been found to make up about 50 % of coastal pike stocks and to show natal homing, thus limiting gene flow among closely located spawning sites. Due to natal homing, sub-populations appear to be locally adapted to their freshwater recruitment environments. Management actions should therefore not involve mixing of individuals originating from different sub-populations. We offer two suggestions complying with this advice: (i) productivity of extant freshwater spawning populations can be boosted by modifying wetlands such that they promote spawning and recruitment; and (ii) new sub-populations that spawn in brackish water can potentially be created by transferring fry and imprinting them on seemingly suitable spawning environments.

Declining coastal piscivore populations in the Baltic Sea: Where and when do sticklebacks matter?

Intraguild predation interactions make fish communities prone to exhibit alternative stable states with either piscivore or prey fish dominance. In the Baltic Sea, local declines of coastal piscivores like perch (Perca fluviatilis) have been observed to coincide with high densities of sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus). Mechanisms behind this shift between piscivore and stickleback dominance were studied both experimentally and in field. Results showed that predation by sticklebacks has a strong negative effect on perch larvae survival, but this effect rapidly decreases with increasing perch size, likely due to gape limitations and digestion constraints in sticklebacks. Large spatial and temporal variations in patterns of stickleback migration into perch spawning sites were observed. Whether or not high density of sticklebacks will cause declines in coastal piscivore populations is suggested to depend on the availability of spawning sites in which sticklebacks do not migrate into or arrive late in the reproduction season of coastal piscivores.

Baltic Sea management: Successes and failures

Severe environmental problems documented in the Baltic Sea in the 1960s led to the 1974 creation of the Helsinki Convention for the Protection of the Marine Environment of the Baltic Sea Area. We introduce this special issue by briefly summarizing successes and failures of Baltic environmental management in the following 40 years. The loads of many polluting substances have been greatly reduced, but legacy pollution slows recovery. Top predator populations have recovered, and human exposure to potential toxins has been reduced. The cod stock has partially recovered. Nutrient loads are decreasing, but deep-water anoxia and cyanobacterial blooms remain extensive, and climate change threatens the advances made. Ecosystem-based management is the agreed principle, but in practice the various environmental problems are still handled separately, since we still lack both basic ecological knowledge and appropriate governance structures for managing them together, in a true ecosystem approach.

Population characteristics, habitat and diet of a recently discovered stingray Dasyatis marianae: implications for conservation

This study examined population density, habitat and diet of Dasyatis marianae, a recently discovered species, in the reef complex of Maracajaú in Rio Grande do Norte state, Brazil. The highest concentration of D. marianae occurred in seagrass beds. Habitat use differed significantly between sex and age classes, with females and juveniles using areas other than reefs. Females utilized primarily seagrass beds and juveniles occurred mainly along the sandy bottom near the beach, highlighting the importance of protecting these areas. Dasyatis marianae diet was characterized primarily by crustaceans (91·9% index of relative importance, I_RI ), including shrimp, crabs and lobsters. The availability of prey in different habitat types influences occupation by D. marianae, but the prey selectivity of D. marianae, among other factors, may affect this relationship. Intense shrimp and lobster fishing in the region probably has an effect on preferred prey resources of this ray. Information on feeding habits of this species contributes to a better understanding of trophic dynamics and food webs, which is critical if ecosystem principles are to be integrated into fisheries management.

Multiple stressors threatening the future of the Baltic Sea-Kattegat marine ecosystem: implications for policy and management actions

The paper discusses the combined effects of ocean acidification, eutrophication and climate change on the Baltic Sea and the implications for current management strategies. The scientific basis is built on results gathered in the BONUS+ projects Baltic-C and ECOSUPPORT. Model results indicate that the Baltic Sea is likely to be warmer, more hypoxic and more acidic in the future. At present management strategies are not taking into account temporal trends and potential ecosystem change due to warming and/or acidification, and therefore fulfilling the obligations specified within the Marine Strategy Framework Directive, OSPAR and HELCOM conventions and national environmental objectives may become significantly more difficult. The paper aims to provide a basis for a discussion on the effectiveness of current policy instruments and possible strategies for setting practical environmental objectives in a changing climate and with multiple stressors.

The future of the oceans past: towards a global marine historical research initiative

Historical research is playing an increasingly important role in marine sciences. Historical data are also used in policy making and marine resource management, and have helped to address the issue of shifting baselines for numerous species and ecosystems. Although many important research questions still remain unanswered, tremendous developments in conceptual and methodological approaches are expected to contribute to a comprehensive understanding of the global history of human interactions with life in the seas. Based on our experiences and knowledge from the "History of Marine Animal Populations" project, this paper identifies the emerging research topics for future historical marine research. It elaborates on concepts and tools which are expected to play a major role in answering these questions, and identifies geographical regions which deserve future attention from marine environmental historians and historical ecologists.

Shifts in the spring herring (Clupea harengus membras) larvae and related environment in the eastern Baltic Sea over the past 50 years

Because of the high management relevance, commercial fish related aspects have often been central in marine ecosystem investigations. The iterative shiftogram method was applied to detect occurrence, type and timing of shifts in the single and multivariate time series linked to the spring spawning herring larvae in the Gulf of Riga (Baltic Sea). Altogether nineteen larval herring and related environmental variables were utilized during the period of 1957-2010. All the time series investigated, either single or multivariate, exhibited one or more shifts with variable type and timing. Multivariate shiftogram based on all time series identified two distinct states (1957-1983 and 1992-2010) in studied variables, separated by a smooth transition period lasting almost ten years. The observed shift was mainly related to hydroclimate and not to phenology or biota. Significantly increased variability was found in larval herring and recruitment abundances after the shift. While the shift in hydroclimate (1985-1991) was followed by the shift in phenology (1991-1997), the shift in biota occurred remarkably later (2003). It is likely that the dynamics in biota were affected by other drivers than those investigated in the current paper.

Hypoxia in the Baltic Sea: biogeochemical cycles, benthic fauna, and management

Hypoxia has occurred intermittently over the Holocene in the Baltic Sea, but the recent expansion from less than 10 000 km(2) before 1950 to >60 000 km(2) since 2000 is mainly caused by enhanced nutrient inputs from land and atmosphere. With worsening hypoxia, the role of sediments changes from nitrogen removal to nitrogen release as ammonium. At present, denitrification in the water column and sediments is equally important. Phosphorus is currently buried in sediments mainly in organic form, with an additional contribution of reduced Fe-phosphate minerals in the deep anoxic basins. Upon the transition to oxic conditions, a significant proportion of the organic phosphorus will be remineralized, with the phosphorus then being bound to iron oxides. This iron-oxide bound phosphorus is readily released to the water column upon the onset of hypoxia again. Important ecosystems services carried out by the benthic fauna, including biogeochemical feedback-loops and biomass production, are also lost with hypoxia. The results provide quantitative knowledge of nutrient release and recycling processes under various environmental conditions in support of decision support tools underlying the Baltic Sea Action Plan.

Seabird guano fertilizes Baltic Sea littoral food webs

Nutrient enrichment in coastal marine systems can have profound impacts on trophic networks. In the Baltic Sea, the population of Great Cormorant (Phalacrocorax carbo sinensis) has increased nearly exponentially since the mid-1990s, and colonies of these seabirds can be important sources of nitrogen enrichment for nearby benthic communities due to guano runoff. In this study we used stable isotope analyses and diet mixing models to determine the extent of nitrogen enrichment from cormorant colonies, as well as to examine any possible changes in herbivore diet preferences due to enrichment. We found significantly higher levels of δ¹⁵N in samples from colony islands than control islands for producers (the dominant macroalga Fucus vesiculosus, filamentous algae, and periphyton) and herbivores, as well as a positive correlation between enrichment and nest density in colony sites. We also found that enrichment increased over the breeding season of the cormorants, with higher enrichment in late summer than early summer. While the amount of total nitrogen did not differ between colony and control sites, the amount of guano-based nitrogen in algae was >50% in most sites, indicating high nitrogen enrichment from colonies. Herbivores (the isopod Idotea balthica and the gastropod Theodoxus fluviatilis) preferred feeding upon the dominant macroalga Fucus vesiculosus rather than on filamentous algae or periphyton in both control and colony, and there was a significant increase in periphyton consumption near colony sites. Overall, guano from cormorant colonies seems to have effects on both producers and herbivores, as well as the potential to modify algae-herbivore interactions.

Managing artificially drained low-gradient agricultural headwaters for enhanced ecosystem functions

Large tracts of lowlands have been drained to expand extensive agriculture into areas that were historically categorized as wasteland. This expansion in agriculture necessarily coincided with changes in ecosystem structure, biodiversity, and nutrient cycling. These changes have impacted not only the landscapes in which they occurred, but also larger water bodies receiving runoff from drained land. New approaches must append current efforts toward land conservation and restoration, as the continuing impacts to receiving waters is an issue of major environmental concern. One of these approaches is agricultural drainage management. This article reviews how this approach differs from traditional conservation efforts, the specific practices of drainage management and the current state of knowledge on the ecology of drainage ditches. A bottom-up approach is utilized, examining the effects of stochastic hydrology and anthropogenic disturbance on primary production and diversity of primary producers, with special regard given to how management can affect establishment of macrophytes and how macrophytes in agricultural landscapes alter their environment in ways that can serve to mitigate non-point source pollution and promote biodiversity in receiving waters.