Future distribution of Arctic char Salvelinus alpinus in Sweden under climate change: effects of temperature, lake size and species interactions

Resilience and phenotypic plasticity of Arctic char (Salvelinus alpinus) facing cyclic hypoxia: insights into growth, energy stores and hepatic metabolism

Arctic char (Salvelinus alpinus) is facing the decline of its southernmost populations due to several factors including rising temperatures and eutrophication. These conditions are also conducive to episodes of cyclic hypoxia, another possible threat to this species. In fact, lack of oxygen and reoxygenation can both have serious consequences on fish as a result of altered ATP balance and an elevated risk of oxidative burst. Thus, fish must adjust their phenotype to survive and equilibrate their energetic budget. However, their energy allocation strategy could imply a reduction in growth which could be deleterious for their fitness. Although the impact of cyclic hypoxia is a major issue for ecosystems and fisheries worldwide, our knowledge on how salmonid deal with high oxygen fluctuations remains limited. Our objective was to characterize the effects of cyclic hypoxia on growth and metabolism in Arctic char. We monitored growth parameters (specific growth rate, condition factor), hepatosomatic and visceral indexes, relative heart mass and hematocrit of Arctic char exposed to 30 days of cyclic hypoxia. We also measured the hepatic protein synthesis rate, hepatic triglycerides as well as muscle glucose, glycogen and lactate and quantified hepatic metabolites during this treatment. The first days of cyclic hypoxia slightly reduce growth performance with a downward trend in specific growth rate in mass and condition factor variation compared to the control group. This acute exposure also induced a profound metabolome reorganization in the liver with an alteration of amino acid, carbohydrate and lipid metabolisms. However, fish rebalanced their metabolic activities and successfully maintained their growth and energetic reserves after 1 month of cyclic hypoxia. These results demonstrate the impressive ability of Arctic char to cope with its changing environment but also highlight a certain vulnerability of this species during the first days of a cyclic hypoxia event.

Climate warming accelerates somatic growth of an Arctic fish species in high-latitude lakes

High-latitude aquatic ecosystems are responding to rapid climate warming. A longer ice-free season with higher water temperatures may accelerate somatic growth in lake ectotherms, leading to widespread ecological implications. In fish, rising temperatures are expected to boost rates of food intake and conversion, and predictions based on empirical relationships between temperature and growth suggest a substantial increase in fish growth rates during the last decades. Fish abundance negatively affects growth by limiting food availability. This field study addresses the effects of climate warming on growth of a subarctic population of Arctic charr (Salvelinus alpinus (L.) over nearly 40 years. Juvenile growth of 680 individuals of Arctic charr, was reconstructed by sclerochronological analysis using sagittal otoliths sampled annually from the early 1980s to 2016. Statistical modelling revealed a positive effect of water temperature, and a negative effect of abundance on somatic growth in juvenile individuals. Temperature dependence in growth was significant for average and fast-growing individuals across all investigated age classes. These findings suggest that, as temperatures rise, somatic growth of Arctic charr will increase in high latitude lakes. Climate warming will thus influence cold water fish life history and size-structured interactions, with important consequences for their populations and ecosystems.

Temporal stability of polymorphic Arctic charr parasite communities reflects sustained divergent trophic niches

Polymorphic Arctic charr Salvelinus alpinus populations frequently display distinct differences in habitat use, diet, and parasite communities. Changes to the relative species densities and composition of the wider fish community have the potential to alter the habitat niche of sympatric Arctic charr populations. This study evaluated the temporal stability of the parasite community, diet, and stable isotopes (δ¹³C, δ¹⁵N) of three sympatric Arctic charr morphs (piscivore, benthivore, and planktivore) from Loch Rannoch, Scotland, in relation to changes to the fish community. All Arctic charr morphs displayed distinct differences in parasite communities, diet, and stable isotope signatures over time, despite the establishment of four new trophically transmitted parasite taxa, and increased fish and zooplankton consumption by the piscivorous and planktivore morphs, respectively. Native parasite prevalence also increased in all Arctic charr morphs. Overall, Loch Rannoch polymorphic Arctic charr morph populations have maintained their distinct trophic niches and parasite communities through time despite changes in the fish community. This result indicates that re‐stocking a native fish species has the potential to induce shifts in the parasite community and diet of Arctic charr morphs.

Cold comfort: Arctic seabirds find refugia from climate change and potential competition in marginal ice zones and fjords

Climate change alters species distributions by shifting their fundamental niche in space through time. Such effects may be exacerbated by increased inter-specific competition if climate alters species dominance where competitor ranges overlap. This study used census data, telemetry and stable isotopes to examine the population and foraging ecology of a pair of Arctic and temperate congeners across an extensive zone of sympatry in Iceland, where sea temperatures varied substantially. The abundance of Arctic Brünnich's guillemot Uria lomvia declined with sea temperature. Accessibility of refugia in cold water currents or fjords helped support higher numbers and reduce rates of population decline. Competition with temperate Common guillemots Uria aalge did not affect abundance, but similarities in foraging ecology were sufficient to cause competition when resources are limiting. Continued warming is likely to lead to further declines of Brünnich's guillemot, with implications for conservation status and ecosystem services.

Noteworthy occurrences among six marine species documented with community engagement in the Canadian Arctic

Arctic marine ecosystems are changing, one aspect of which appears to be distributional expansions of sub-arctic species. For Arctic marine systems, there is limited occurrence information for many species, especially those found in restricted habitats (e.g., ice-covered, far north, or deep-water). Increasing observations through on-going Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) community-based monitoring programs (e.g., Arctic Coast, Cambridge Bay Arctic Char stock assessment, Arctic Salmon, and Kugluktuk coastal surveys), community observation networks, and local media have augmented opportunities to document new occurrences of marine fishes. Combined data from historical records and contemporary observations at the local scale can then delineate these among three types of occurrences: gradual distributional expansion, episodic vagrants, and rare endemics. Here we document nine occurrences of unusual sightings across six fish species (Pink Salmon Oncorhynchus gorbuscha, Bering Wolffish Anarhichas orientalis, Greenland Shark Somniosus microcephalus, Broad Whitefish Coregonus nasus, Banded Gunnel Pholis fasciata and Salmon Shark Lamna ditropis) from six northern Canadian communities and classify the nature of each observation as rare, vagrant, or expanding distributions. Uniting scientific and local observations represents a novel approach to monitor distributional changes suitable for a geographically large but sparsely populated area such as the Canadian Arctic. The new occurrences are important for discerning the potential effects of the presence of these species in Arctic ecosystems. These observations more broadly will build on our understanding of northern biodiversity change associated with warming Arctic environments.

Effects of competitive pressure and habitat heterogeneity on niche partitioning between Arctic and boreal congeners

The rapidly changing climate in the Arctic is expected to have a major impact on the foraging ecology of seabirds, owing to changes in the distribution and abundance of their prey but also that of competitors (e.g. southerly species expanding their range into the Arctic). Species can respond to interspecific competition by segregating along different niche axes. Here, we studied spatial, temporal and habitat segregation between two closely related seabird species: common guillemot Uria aalge (a temperate species) and Brünnich's guillemot Uria lomvia (a true Arctic species), at two sympatric sites in Iceland that differ in their total population sizes and the availability of marine habitats. We deployed GPS and temperature-depth recorders to describe foraging locations and behaviour of incubating and chick-rearing adults. We found similar evidence of spatial segregation at the two sites (i.e. independent of population sizes), although segregation in environmental space was only evident at the site with a strong habitat gradient. Unexpectedly, temporal (and, to a limited extent, vertical) segregation appeared only at the least populated site. Overall, our results show complex relationships between the levels of inferred competition and that of segregation.

Predicting anoxia in low-nutrient temperate lakes

Absence of dissolved oxygen (anoxia) in the hypolimnion of lakes can eliminate habitat for sensitive species and may induce the release of sediment-bound phosphorus. Lake anoxia generally results from decomposition of organic matter, which is exacerbated by high nutrient loads. Total phosphorus (TP) in lakes is regulated by static aspects of the lake's watershed, but lake TP can be readily increased by human activities. In some low-nutrient lakes, basin morphometry may induce naturally occurring anoxia. The occurrence of natural anoxia is especially important to consider in lake water quality assessments that compare observed conditions to expected reference conditions. To investigate the occurrence of natural vs. anthropogenically influenced anoxia, we constructed a logistic regression model to calculate the probability of low-nutrient lakes (TP < 15 µg/L) developing aerial anoxic extent ≥10% by testing the predictive potential of variables related to basin morphometry, depths of lake thermal strata, epilimnetic TP, and dissolved organic carbon (DOC). Maximum lake depth and the proportion of lake area under the top of the metalimnion were the most important variables to predict the likelihood of hypolimnetic anoxia, which correctly predicted anoxic condition in 84% of lakes (Model 1). Adding TP as a third variable to Model 1 produced a significantly improved model (Model 2) but the prediction success rate was comparable (86%). We also present a model for lakes with limited bathymetric data, which predicts anoxia with 81% accuracy based on maximum lake depth and mean thermocline depth at peak stratification. DOC was relatively low (4.3 ± 1.5 mg/L [mean ± SD]) in the study lakes and its inclusion did not improve model performance. In Model 1, lakes with an anoxic extent ≥10% of lake area had significantly higher epilimnetic TP than lakes with oxic hypolimnia, regardless of prediction category or success. Our results indicate that including TP as a variable helps refine models based on morphometry alone, but lake morphometry and stratification dynamics are the most important factors in the development of anoxic extent in low-nutrient temperate lakes. Our approach informs studies concerned with identifying key factors that influence regime shifts in a variety of ecosystems.

Holocene extinctions of a top predator-Effects of time, habitat area and habitat subdivision

Loss of habitat and changes in the spatial configuration of habitats are major drivers of species extinctions, but the responses to these drivers differ between organisms. To advance theory on how extinction risk from different types of habitat alteration relates to species-specific traits, there is a need for studies of the long-term extinction dynamic of individual species. The goal of this study was to quantify how habitat area and the spatial configuration of habitats affect extinction rate of an aquatic top predator, the northern pike Esox lucius L. We recorded the presence/absence of northern pike in 398 isolated habitat fragments, each one consisting of a number of interconnected lakes. Time since isolation of the habitat fragments, caused by cut-off from the main dispersal source in the Baltic Sea, varied between 0 and 10,000 years. Using survival regression, we analysed how pike population survival was affected by time since isolation, habitat size and habitat subdivision. The approach builds on the assumptions that pike colonized all fragments before isolation and that current absences result from extinctions. We verified these assumptions by testing (a) if pike was present in the region throughout the entire time period when the lakes formed and (b) if pike typically colonize lakes that are formed today. We also addressed the likelihood that unrecorded anthropogenic introductions could bias our estimates of extinction rate. Our results supported the interpretation that current patterns of presence/absence in our study system are shaped by extinctions. Further, we found that time since isolation and fragment area had strong effects on pike population survival. In contrast, spatial habitat subdivision (i.e. if a fragment contained few large lakes or many small lakes) and other environmental covariates describing climate and productivity were unrelated to pike survival. Over all, extinction rate was high in young fragments and decreased sharply with increasing fragment age. Our study demonstrates how the link between extinction rate and habitat size and spatial structure can be quantified. More similar studies may help us find generalizations that can guide management of habitat size and connectivity.

Characterizing neutral and adaptive genomic differentiation in a changing climate: The most northerly freshwater fish as a model

Arctic freshwater ecosystems have been profoundly affected by climate change. Given that the Arctic charr (Salvelinus alpinus) is often the only fish species inhabiting these ecosystems, it represents a valuable model for studying the impacts of climate change on species life-history diversity and adaptability. Using a genotyping-by-sequencing approach, we identified 5,976 neutral single nucleotide polymorphisms and found evidence for reduced gene flow between allopatric morphs from two high Arctic lakes, Linne'vatn (Anadromous, Normal, and Dwarf) and Ellasjøen (Littoral and Pelagic). Within each lake, the degree of genetic differentiation ranged from low (Pelagic vs. Littoral) to moderate (Anadromous and Normal vs. Dwarf). We identified 17 highly diagnostic, putatively adaptive SNPs that differentiated the allopatric morphs. Although we found no evidence for adaptive differences between morphs within Ellasjøen, we found evidence for moderate (Anadromous vs. Normal) to high genetic differentiation (Anadromous and Normal vs. Dwarf) among morphs within Linne'vatn based on two adaptive loci. As these freshwater ecosystems become more productive, the frequency of sympatric morphs in Ellasjøen will likely shift based on foraging opportunities, whereas the propensity to migrate may decrease in Linne'vatn, increasing the frequency of the Normal morph. The Dwarf charr was the most genetically distinct group. Identifying the biological basis for small body size should elucidate the potential for increased growth and subsequent interbreeding with sympatric morphs. Overall, neutral and adaptive genomic differentiation between allopatric and some sympatric morphs suggests that the response of Arctic charr to climate change will be variable across freshwater ecosystems.

Non-native species and lake warming negatively affect Arctic char Salvelinus alpinus abundance; deep thermal refugia facilitate co-existence

This study finds that non-native species and warming temperatures have significant negative effects on Arctic char Salvelinus alpinus abundance in Irish lakes. Eutrophication was not important at the range of total phosphorus tested (0.005-0.023 mg l^-1 ). Model results predict that S. alpinus occur across the temperature range sampled (8.2-19.7°C) when non-natives are absent, but S. alpinus catch is predicted to be close to zero irrespective of temperature when non-native catch is high. This result indicates that to persist, S. alpinus may require a habitat where non-natives are at low abundance or absent. Salvelinus alpinus segregated from other species along the thermal axis, inhabiting significantly colder water and actively avoided non-native species, which appeared to limit their distribution. The thermal niche realized by S. alpinus in non-native dominated lakes was thus compressed relative to native dominated lakes and S. alpinus population density was significantly lower. These findings were consistent even when the only non-native present was Perca fluviatilis. Temperature appeared to limit the distribution of non-native species, such that the presence of deep thermal refugia is currently facilitating S. alpinus co-existence with non-natives in associated lakes. Diet analysis identified P. fluviatilis as potential predators and competitors. This study provides strong evidence that non-native species are a key driver of low S. alpinus abundance in Irish lakes. Temperature increases associated with climate change are identified as a secondary concern, as they could erode S. alpinus' thermal niche and lead to their extirpation. The lower thermal buffering capacity of shallow lakes identifies these as higher risk systems. Salvelinus alpinus conservation in Ireland should focus on preventing future illegal non-native species introductions because unlike other stressors (e.g., eutrophication etc.), species introductions are rarely reversible.

Conceptualising the interactive effects of climate change and biological invasions on subarctic freshwater fish

Climate change and species invasions represent key threats to global biodiversity. Subarctic freshwaters are sentinels for understanding both stressors because the effects of climate change are disproportionately strong at high latitudes and invasion of temperate species is prevalent. Here, we summarize the environmental effects of climate change and illustrate the ecological responses of freshwater fishes to these effects, spanning individual, population, community and ecosystem levels. Climate change is modifying hydrological cycles across atmospheric, terrestrial and aquatic components of subarctic ecosystems, causing increases in ambient water temperature and nutrient availability. These changes affect the individual behavior, habitat use, growth and metabolism, alter population spawning and recruitment dynamics, leading to changes in species abundance and distribution, modify food web structure, trophic interactions and energy flow within communities and change the sources, quantity and quality of energy and nutrients in ecosystems. Increases in temperature and its variability in aquatic environments underpin many ecological responses; however, altered hydrological regimes, increasing nutrient inputs and shortened ice cover are also important drivers of climate change effects and likely contribute to context-dependent responses. Species invasions are a complex aspect of the ecology of climate change because the phenomena of invasion are both an effect and a driver of the ecological consequences of climate change. Using subarctic freshwaters as an example, we illustrate how climate change can alter three distinct aspects of species invasions: (1) the vulnerability of ecosystems to be invaded, (2) the potential for species to spread and invade new habitats, and (3) the subsequent ecological effects of invaders. We identify three fundamental knowledge gaps focused on the need to determine (1) how environmental and landscape characteristics influence the ecological impact of climate change, (2) the separate and combined effects of climate and non-native invading species and (3) the underlying ecological processes or mechanisms responsible for changes in patterns of biodiversity.

Projected shifts in fish species dominance in Wisconsin lakes under climate change

Temperate lakes may contain both coolwater fish species such as walleye (Sander vitreus) and warmwater fish species such as largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides). Recent declining walleye and increasing largemouth bass populations have raised questions regarding the future trajectories and management actions for these species. We developed a thermodynamic model of water temperatures driven by downscaled climate data and lake-specific characteristics to estimate daily water temperature profiles for 2148 lakes in Wisconsin, US, under contemporary (1989-2014) and future (2040-2064 and 2065-2089) conditions. We correlated contemporary walleye recruitment and largemouth bass relative abundance to modeled water temperature, lake morphometry, and lake productivity, and projected lake-specific changes in each species under future climate conditions. Walleye recruitment success was negatively related and largemouth bass abundance was positively related to water temperature degree days. Both species exhibited a threshold response at the same degree day value, albeit in opposite directions. Degree days were predicted to increase in the future, although the magnitude of increase varied among lakes, time periods, and global circulation models (GCMs). Under future conditions, we predicted a loss of walleye recruitment in 33-75% of lakes where recruitment is currently supported and a 27-60% increase in the number of lakes suitable for high largemouth bass abundance. The percentage of lakes capable of supporting abundant largemouth bass but failed walleye recruitment was predicted to increase from 58% in contemporary conditions to 86% by mid-century and to 91% of lakes by late century, based on median projections across GCMs. Conversely, the percentage of lakes with successful walleye recruitment and low largemouth bass abundance was predicted to decline from 9% of lakes in contemporary conditions to only 1% of lakes in both future periods. Importantly, we identify up to 85 resilient lakes predicted to continue to support natural walleye recruitment. Management resources could target preserving these resilient walleye populations.

Animal behaviour shapes the ecological effects of ocean acidification and warming: moving from individual to community-level responses

Biological communities are shaped by complex interactions between organisms and their environment as well as interactions with other species. Humans are rapidly changing the marine environment through increasing greenhouse gas emissions, resulting in ocean warming and acidification. The first response by animals to environmental change is predominantly through modification of their behaviour, which in turn affects species interactions and ecological processes. Yet, many climate change studies ignore animal behaviour. Furthermore, our current knowledge of how global change alters animal behaviour is mostly restricted to single species, life phases and stressors, leading to an incomplete view of how coinciding climate stressors can affect the ecological interactions that structure biological communities. Here, we first review studies on the effects of warming and acidification on the behaviour of marine animals. We demonstrate how pervasive the effects of global change are on a wide range of critical behaviours that determine the persistence of species and their success in ecological communities. We then evaluate several approaches to studying the ecological effects of warming and acidification, and identify knowledge gaps that need to be filled, to better understand how global change will affect marine populations and communities through altered animal behaviours. Our review provides a synthesis of the far-reaching consequences that behavioural changes could have for marine ecosystems in a rapidly changing environment. Without considering the pervasive effects of climate change on animal behaviour we will limit our ability to forecast the impacts of ocean change and provide insights that can aid management strategies.

Temperature dependence of predation depends on the relative performance of predators and prey

The temperature dependence of predation rates is a key issue for understanding and predicting the responses of ecosystems to climate change. Using a simple mechanistic model, we demonstrate that differences in the relative performances of predator and prey can cause strong threshold effects in the temperature dependence of attack rates. Empirical data on the attack rate of northern pike (Esox lucius) feeding on brown trout (Salmo trutta) confirm this result. Attack rates fell sharply below a threshold temperature of +11°C, which corresponded to a shift in relative performance of pike and brown trout with respect to maximum attack and escape swimming speeds. The average attack speed of pike was an order of magnitude lower than the escape speed of brown trout at 5°C, but approximately equal at temperatures above 11°C. Thresholds in the temperature dependence of ecological rates can create tipping points in the responses of ecosystems to increasing temperatures. Thus, identifying thresholds is crucial when predicting future effects of climate warming.

Assessing anthropogenic impact on boreal lakes with historical fish species distribution data and hydrogeochemical modeling

Quantifying the effects of human activity on the natural environment is dependent on credible estimates of reference conditions to define the state of the environment before the onset of adverse human impacts. In Europe, emission controls that aimed at restoring ecological status were based on hindcasts from process-based models or paleolimnological reconstructions. For instance, 1860 is used in Europe as the target for restoration from acidification concerning biological and chemical parameters. A more practical problem is that the historical states of ecosystems and their function cannot be observed directly. Therefore, we (i) compare estimates of acidification based on long-term observations of roach (Rutilus rutilus) populations with hindcast pH from the hydrogeochemical model MAGIC; (ii) discuss policy implications and possible scope for use of long-term archival data for assessing human impacts on the natural environment and (iii) present a novel conceptual model for interpreting the importance of physico-chemical and ecological deviations from reference conditions. Of the 85 lakes studied, 78 were coherently classified by both methods. In 1980, 28 lakes were classified as acidified with the MAGIC model, however, roach was present in 14 of these. In 2010, MAGIC predicted chemical recovery in 50% of the lakes, however roach only recolonized in five lakes after 1990, showing a lag between chemical and biological recovery. Our study is the first study of its kind to use long-term archival biological data in concert with hydrogeochemical modeling for regional assessments of anthropogenic acidification. Based on our results, we show how the conceptual model can be used to understand and prioritize management of physico-chemical and ecological effects of anthropogenic stressors on surface water quality.

Fish introductions reveal the temperature dependence of species interactions

A major area of current research is to understand how climate change will impact species interactions and ultimately biodiversity. A variety of environmental conditions are rapidly changing owing to climate warming, and these conditions often affect both the strength and outcome of species interactions. We used fish distributions and replicated fish introductions to investigate environmental conditions influencing the coexistence of two fishes in Swedish lakes: brown trout (Salmo trutta) and pike (Esox lucius). A logistic regression model of brown trout and pike coexistence showed that these species coexist in large lakes (more than 4.5 km(2)), but not in small, warm lakes (annual air temperature more than 0.9-1.5°C). We then explored how climate change will alter coexistence by substituting climate scenarios for 2091-2100 into our model. The model predicts that brown trout will be extirpated from approximately half of the lakes where they presently coexist with pike and from nearly all 9100 lakes where pike are predicted to invade. Context dependency was critical for understanding pike-brown trout interactions, and, given the widespread occurrence of context-dependent species interactions, this aspect will probably be critical for accurately predicting climate impacts on biodiversity.