The Burden of Influenza: a Complex Problem

Minimal Influenza Virus Transmission From Touching Contaminated Floors and Metal Door Levers: Laboratory Study II

Influenza is generally understood to be transmitted through inhaling virus-contaminating aerosol/droplets or contact with virus-contaminated environmental surfaces (or fomites). However, the risk associated with transmission through contact with fomites is hypothetical, lacking solid quantitative evidence. In our previous paper, we demonstrated through a series of experiments that the probability of influenza virus transmission from touching contaminated surfaces of face masks is minimal (Sci Rep 2024, 14, 20211). In the present study, we expanded upon this study by conducting an experimental evaluation of the likelihood of influenza transmission from dried fomites under three specific scenarios: (1) when a floor/table lies within the trajectory of artificial coughs, (2) when stainless-steel door levers are exposed to viral spraying (simulating cough), and (3) when door levers are exposed to viruses on the grasping hand. The fingertips contacting the above fomites formed on the surfaces were washed into a rinsing medium. Subsequently, we evaluated the rinsing medium for viral content using plaque-forming assay to detect the viable viruses and real-time quantitative PCR assay to detect the viral genes. We found that viable viruses were rarely transmitted to fingertips from the above fomites even when the viral loads in the viral fluid contaminating the fomites far exceeded that seen in real life. Consequently, we conclude that the probability of contact transmission of influenza via dried fomites is negligible or minimal under the scenarios studied here.

The National Burden of Influenza-Associated Respiratory Illness Across Levels of Severity in Egypt, 2016-2019

INTRODUCTION

Influenza burden (IB) estimates are crucial for monitoring disease trends, allocating limited resources, and promoting influenza vaccination. However, IB in Egypt is poorly understood. This study estimates the mean-seasonal IB in Egypt, across levels of severity by age and regions using sentinel surveillance data between 2016 and 2019.

METHODS

Influenza surveillance was implemented among patients hospitalized with severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) at eight sentinel hospitals across Egypt. We estimated the influenza-associated SARI hospitalization in two governorates and then extrapolated nationally using the World Health Organization (WHO)-recommended methods. Thereafter, we estimated IB-associated mild/moderate illness and deaths using IB pyramid tool developed by WHO and the John Hopkins Center for Health Security. Rates were reported per 100,000 population.

RESULTS

The estimated mean seasonal number of influenza-associated mild/moderate illness, hospitalized noncritically and critically ill patients, and deaths was 16,425,938 (95% CI: 1,150,888-40,409,614), 30,335 (95% CI: 9971-670,288), 9110 (95% CI: 580-16,321), and 2660 (95% CI: 154-9908), respectively. The highest rate of influenza-associated mild/moderate illness was among aged 5-14 year (22,932; 95% CI: 825-25,546.3), whereas the highest rates of severe influenza were among aged > 65 years (hospitalizations: 159.4, 95% CI: 121.7-205.0; deaths: 56.0, 95% CI: 0.6-111.0). Children aged < 5 years also experience high rates of influenza-associated hospitalization (52.0, 95% CI: 43.0-62.0).

CONCLUSIONS

The WHO method estimated a high burden of severe influenza among aged ≥ 65 and aged < 5 years in Egypt. To reduce severe IB, increased influenza vaccine uptake together with enhanced immunization strategies implementations among the elderly and children are warranted.

Secondary healthcare resource utilization and related costs associated with influenza-related hospital admissions in adult patients, England 2016 - 2020

INTRODUCTION

This study aims to investigate healthcare resource utilization and related costs for influenza virus infections in adults admitted into secondary care in England across four influenza seasons.

METHODS

This study includes all influenza admissions from the Hospital Episode Statistics database (HES) across England, September 2016 to March 2020. Descriptive analyses and comparative modeling techniques were used to assess the impact of influenza on risk groups of interest.

RESULTS

Influenza admissions were estimated to cost £401 M. Average admission costs were heavily impacted by age and comorbid status, with comorbid patients representing 91% of costs. Additionally, patients with comorbidities treated in secondary care cost twice as much as non-comorbid patients, after adjusting for age and gender. Comorbid patients also had increased length of stay (LOS) and admissions to ICU, with patients' LOS being a core contributing factor to higher costs.

CONCLUSION

The study documents the substantial burden of influenza in England, emphasizing the impact of age and comorbid status on healthcare resource utilization (HCRU) and related costs. The data presented offers critical information to healthcare systems evaluating new strategies to alleviate the winter pressures on the NHS; highlighting the need to implement vaccination campaigns with enhanced vaccinations and increased vaccine coverage.

The role of asymptomatic infections in influenza transmission: what do we really know

Before the COVID-19 pandemic, the role of asymptomatic influenza virus infections in influenza transmission was uncertain. However, the importance of asymptomatic infection with SARS-CoV-2 for onward transmission of COVID-19 has led experts to question whether the role of asymptomatic influenza virus infections in transmission had been underappreciated. We discuss the existing evidence on the frequency of asymptomatic influenza virus infections, the extent to which they contribute to infection transmission, and remaining knowledge gaps. We propose priority areas for further evaluation, study designs, and case definitions to address existing knowledge gaps.

A neonatal piglet model reveals interactions between nasal microbiota and influenza A virus pathogenesis

While vaccination and therapeutics for prevention/treatment of influenza are available, new strategies are needed to combat influenza disease in susceptible populations, particularly young children and newborns. Host associated microbiota play an important role in modulating the virulence of numerous pathogens, including the influenza A virus. In this study, we examined microbiome-influenza interactions in a neonatal piglet model system. The nasal microbiome of newborn piglets was longitudinally sampled before and after intranasal infection with recombinant viruses expressing hemagglutinins (HAs) derived from distinct zoonotic H1 subtypes. We found that viruses expressing different parental HAs manifested unique patterns of pathogenicity, and varied impacts on microbial community diversity. Despite these virus specific differences, a consistent microbial signature of viral infection was detected. Our results indicate that influenza A virus infection associates with the restructuring of nasal microbiome and such shifts in microbial diversity may contribute to outcomes of viral infection in neonatal piglets.

Influenza: cause or excuse? An analysis of flu's influence on worsening mortality trends in England and Wales, 2010-19

BACKGROUND

England and Wales experienced a stagnation of previously improving life expectancy during the 2010s. Public bodies cited influenza as an important cause.

SOURCES OF DATA

We used data from the Office for National Statistics to examine mortality attributed directly to influenza and to all influenza-like diseases for the total population of England and Wales 2010-19. Several combinations of ICD-10 codes were used to address the possibility of under-counting influenza deaths.

AREAS OF AGREEMENT

Deaths from influenza and influenza-like diseases declined between 2010 and 2019, while earlier improvements in mortality from all causes of death were stalling and, with some causes, worsening. Our findings support existing research showing that influenza is not an important cause of the stalling of mortality rates 2010-19.

AREAS OF CONTROVERSY

Influenza was accepted by many as an important cause of stalling life expectancy for much of the 2010s, while few in public office have accepted austerity as a key factor in the changes seen during that time.

GROWING POINTS

This adds to the mounting evidence that austerity damaged health prior to COVID-19 and left the population more vulnerable when it arrived.

AREAS FOR DEVELOPING TIMELY RESEARCH

Future research should explore why so many in public office were quick to attribute the change in trends in overall mortality in the UK in this period to influenza, and why many continue to do so through to 2023 and to deny the key role of austerity in harming population health.

Identify future epidemic threshold and intensity for influenza-like illness in Iraq by using the moving epidemic method

Objectives

Influenza-like illness (ILI) entered the Iraq surveillance system in 2021. The alert threshold was determined using the cumulative sum 2 method, which did not provide other characteristics. This study uses the moving epidemic method (MEM) to describe duration and estimate alert thresholds for ILI in Iraq for 2023-2024.

Methods

MEM default package was used to estimate influenza 2023-2024 epidemic thresholds. Analysis was repeated using optimum parameter of epidemic timing for fixed criteria method, which is 3.3. Arithmetic means and 95% confidence interval upper limit were used to estimate threshold. Geometric mean and 40%, 90%, and 97.3% confidence interval upper limits were used to estimate intensity levels. Aggregated Centers for Disease Control and Prevention surveillance data were used to detect epidemic thresholds, length, sensitivity, and predictive values.

Results

ILI activity starts at week 30 and lasts 7 weeks. Optimized epidemic threshold is 4513 cases, lower than default (4540 cases). Optimized medium-intensity level was higher than default, and high and very high-intensity levels were lower.

Conclusions

MEM is essential to determine an influenza epidemic's threshold and intensity levels. Despite requiring 3-5 years of data, using it on data for 2.5 years has resulted in an epidemic threshold slightly higher than the threshold calculated using the cumulative sum 2 method.

Associations between Short-Term Exposure to Ambient Air Pollution and Influenza: An Individual-Level Case-Crossover Study in Guangzhou, China

BACKGROUND

Influenza imposes a heavy burden on public health. Little is known, however, of the associations between detailed measures of exposure to ambient air pollution and influenza at an individual level.

OBJECTIVE

We examined individual-level associations between six criteria air pollutants and influenza using case-crossover design.

METHODS

In this individual-level time-stratified case-crossover study, we linked influenza cases collected by the Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention from 1 January 2013 to 31 December 2019 with individual residence-level exposure to particulate matter (PM 2.5 and PM 10 ), sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ), nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ), ozone (O 3 ) and carbon monoxide (CO). The exposures were estimated for the day of onset of influenza symptoms (lag 0), 1-7 d before the onset (lags 1-7), as well as an 8-d moving average (lag07), using a random forest model and linked to study participants' home addresses. Conditional logistic regression was developed to investigate the associations between short-term exposure to air pollution and influenza, adjusting for mean temperature, relative humidity, public holidays, population mobility, and community influenza susceptibility.

RESULTS

N = 108,479 eligible cases were identified in our study. Every 10 - μ g / m 3 increase in exposure to PM 2.5 , PM 10 , NO 2 , and CO and every 5 - μ g / m 3 increase in SO 2 over 8-d moving average (lag07) was associated with higher risk of influenza with a relative risk (RR) of 1.028 (95% CI: 1.018, 1.038), 1.041 (95% CI: 1.032, 1.049), 1.169 (95% CI: 1.151, 1.188), 1.004 (95% CI: 1.003, 1.006), and 1.134 (95% CI: 1.107, 1.163), respectively. There was a negative association between O 3 and influenza with a RR of 0.878 (95% CI: 0.866, 0.890).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that short-term exposure to air pollution, except for O 3 , is associated with greater risk for influenza. Further studies are necessary to decipher underlying mechanisms and design preventive interventions and policies. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP12145.

Supervised Machine Learning Methods for Seasonal Influenza Diagnosis

Influenza has been a stationary disease in Mexico since 2009, and this causes a high cost for the national public health system, including its detection using RT-qPCR tests, treatments, and absenteeism in the workplace. Despite influenza's relevance, the main clinical features to detect the disease defined by international institutions like the World Health Organization (WHO) and the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) do not follow the same pattern in all populations. The aim of this work is to find a machine learning method to facilitate decision making in the clinical differentiation between positive and negative influenza patients, based on their symptoms and demographic features. The research sample consisted of 15480 records, including clinical and demographic data of patients with a positive/negative RT-qPCR influenza tests, from 2010 to 2020 in the public healthcare institutions of Mexico City. The performance of the methods for classifying influenza cases were evaluated with indices like accuracy, specificity, sensitivity, precision, the f1-measure and the area under the curve (AUC). Results indicate that random forest and bagging classifiers were the best supervised methods; they showed promise in supporting clinical diagnosis, especially in places where performing molecular tests might be challenging or not feasible.

Synthesis of multivalent sialyllactose-conjugated PAMAM dendrimers: Binding to SARS-CoV-2 spike protein and influenza hemagglutinin

Severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) and influenza viruses have spread around the world at an unprecedented rate. Despite multiple vaccines, new variants of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza have caused a remarkable level of pathogenesis. The development of effective antiviral drugs to treat SARS-CoV-2 and influenza remains a high priority. Inhibiting viral cell surface attachment represents an early and efficient means to block virus infection. Sialyl glycoconjugates, on the surface of human cell membranes, play an important role as host cell receptors for influenza A virus and 9-O-acetyl-sialylated glycoconjugates are receptors for MERS, HKU1 and bovine coronaviruses. We designed and synthesized multivalent 6'-sialyllactose-counjugated polyamidoamine dendrimers through click chemistry at room temperature concisely. These dendrimer derivatives have good solubility and stability in aqueous solutions. SPR, a real-time analysis quantitative method for of biomolecular interactions, was used to study the binding affinities of our dendrimer derivatives by utilizing only 200 micrograms of each dendrimer. Three SARS-CoV-2 S-protein receptor binding domain (wild type and two Omicron mutants) bound to multivalent 9-O-acetyl-6'-sialyllactose-counjugated and 6'-sialyllactose-counjugated dendrimers bound to a single H3N2 influenza A virus's HA protein (A/Hong Kong/1/1968), the SPR study results suggest their potential anti-viral activities.

Estimating the full health and economic benefits of current and future influenza vaccines

In the dynamic landscape of respiratory virus vaccines, it is crucial to assess the value of novel mRNA and combination influenza/COVID-19 vaccines in low- and middle-income countries. Modeling studies, such as the one conducted by Waterlow et al., provide vital information about the cost-benefit potential of these products compared to currently licensed vaccines. However, this approach only accounts for directly measured medically attended influenza-associated illnesses and has two major limitations. First, this method fails to capture the full disease burden of influenza (including non-respiratory and non-medically attended influenza illnesses), which are particularly important drivers of disease burden in infants and older adults. Second, the model does not describe the ancillary benefits of influenza vaccination such as the attenuation of severe disease, prevention of severe non-respiratory outcomes (e.g., myocardial infarctions), or reduced antibiotic use. To obtain a comprehensive understanding of the benefits of influenza vaccines, we must strive to improve the inputs for future modeling-based evaluations.

Lymph Node Follicle-Targeting STING Agonist Nanoshells Enable Single-Shot M2e Vaccination for Broad and Durable Influenza Protection

The highly conserved matrix protein 2 ectodomain (M2e) of influenza viruses presents a compelling vaccine antigen candidate for stemming the pandemic threat of the mutation-prone pathogen, yet the low immunogenicity of the diminutive M2e peptide renders vaccine development challenging. A highly potent M2e nanoshell vaccine that confers broad and durable influenza protectivity under a single vaccination is shown. Prepared via asymmetric ionic stabilization for nanoscopic curvature formation, polymeric nanoshells co-encapsulating high densities of M2e peptides and stimulator of interferon genes (STING) agonists are prepared. Robust and long-lasting protectivity against heterotypic influenza viruses is achieved with a single administration of the M2e nanoshells in mice. Mechanistically, molecular adjuvancy by the STING agonist and nanoshell-mediated prolongation of M2e antigen exposure in the lymph node follicles synergistically contribute to the heightened anti-M2e humoral responses. STING agonist-triggered T cell helper functions and extended residence of M2e peptides in the follicular dendritic cell network provide a favorable microenvironment that induces Th1-biased antibody production against the diminutive antigen. These findings highlight a versatile nanoparticulate design that leverages innate immune pathways for enhancing the immunogenicity of weak immunogens. The single-shot nanovaccine further provides a translationally viable platform for pandemic preparedness.

Transmission dynamics of seasonal influenza in a remote island population

Seasonal influenza outbreaks remain an important public health concern, causing large numbers of hospitalizations and deaths among high-risk groups. Understanding the dynamics of individual transmission is crucial to design effective control measures and ultimately reduce the burden caused by influenza outbreaks. In this study, we analyzed surveillance data from Kamigoto Island, Japan, a semi-isolated island population, to identify the drivers of influenza transmission during outbreaks. We used rapid influenza diagnostic test (RDT)-confirmed surveillance data from Kamigoto island, Japan and estimated age-specific influenza relative illness ratios (RIRs) over eight epidemic seasons (2010/11 to 2017/18). We reconstructed the probabilistic transmission trees (i.e., a network of who-infected-whom) using Bayesian inference with Markov-chain Monte Carlo method and then performed a negative binomial regression on the inferred transmission trees to identify the factors associated with onwards transmission risk. Pre-school and school-aged children were most at risk of getting infected with influenza, with RIRs values consistently above one. The maximal RIR values were 5.99 (95% CI 5.23, 6.78) in the 7-12 aged-group and 5.68 (95%CI 4.59, 6.99) in the 4-6 aged-group in 2011/12. The transmission tree reconstruction suggested that the number of imported cases were consistently higher in the most populated and busy districts (Tainoura-go and Arikawa-go) ranged from 10-20 to 30-36 imported cases per season. The number of secondary cases generated by each case were also higher in these districts, which had the highest individual reproduction number (R_eff: 1.2-1.7) across the seasons. Across all inferred transmission trees, the regression analysis showed that cases reported in districts with lower local vaccination coverage (incidence rate ratio IRR = 1.45 (95% CI 1.02, 2.05)) or higher number of inhabitants (IRR = 2.00 (95% CI 1.89, 2.12)) caused more secondary transmissions. Being younger than 18 years old (IRR = 1.38 (95%CI 1.21, 1.57) among 4-6 years old and 1.45 (95% CI 1.33, 1.59) 7-12 years old) and infection with influenza type A (type B IRR = 0.83 (95% CI 0.77, 0.90)) were also associated with higher numbers of onwards transmissions. However, conditional on being infected, we did not find any association between individual vaccination status and onwards transmissibility. Our study showed the importance of focusing public health efforts on achieving high vaccine coverage throughout the island, especially in more populated districts. The strong association between local vaccine coverage (including neighboring regions), and the risk of transmission indicate the importance of achieving homogeneously high vaccine coverage. The individual vaccine status may not prevent onwards transmission, though it may reduce the severity of infection.

Increased Influenza Severity in Children in the Wake of SARS-CoV-2

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and subsequent interruption of influenza circulation has lowered population immunity to influenza, especially among children with few pre-pandemic exposures. We compared the incidence and severity of influenza A/H3N2 and influenza B/Victoria between 2022 and two pre-pandemic seasons and found an increased frequency of severe influenza in 2022.

The Spectrum of Influenza in Children

BACKGROUND

Children constitute an important component of the influenza burden and community transmission, but the frequency of asymptomatic infection and post-influenza sequelae at the community level is poorly understood.

METHODS

Two community-based prospective cohort studies (2011-2020, 2017-2020) and 1 case-ascertained study (2012-2017) were conducted in Managua, Nicaragua. Non-immunocompromised children aged 0-14 years with ≥1 influenza infections, determined by polymerase chain reaction and hemagglutination inhibition assay, were included.

RESULTS

A total of 1272 influenza infections occurred in the household-based portion of the study. Influenza infection was asymptomatic in 84 (6.6%) infections, and the asymptomatic fraction increased with age (1.7%, 3.5%, and 9.1% for ages 0-1, 2-4, and 5-14, respectively; P < .001). Of asymptomatic children, 43 (51.2%) shed virus, compared to 1099 (92.5%) symptomatic children (P < .001). Also, 2140 cases of influenza occurred in the primary care portion of the study. Sequelae of influenza were rare, with the most common being pneumonia (52, 2.4%) and acute otitis media (71, 3.3%). A/H1N1 had higher age-adjusted odds of acute otitis media (odds ratio [OR] 1.99, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.14-3.48; P = .015) and hospitalization (OR 3.73, 95% CI: 1.68-8.67; P = .002) than A/H3N2. B/Victoria had higher age-adjusted odds of pneumonia (OR 10.99, 95% CI: 1.34-90.28; P = .026) than B/Yamagata.

CONCLUSIONS

Asymptomatic influenza infection is much less common in children than adults, although viral shedding still occurs in asymptomatic children. Post-influenza sequelae are rare in children in the community setting, and virus strain may be important in understanding the risk of sequelae.

Towards a Future of Personalized Vaccinology: Study on Individual Variables Influencing the Antibody Response to the COVID-19 Vaccine

The COVID-19 pandemic has hugely impacted many different aspects of human health, and vaccination is one of the most effective weapons to manage it. However, many different factors, such as age, gender, comorbidities and lifestyles, play a role in the response to infections and vaccines. We carried out this study to evaluate the potential role played by some individual factors in the production of anti-COVID-19 antibodies in the light of personalized and future vaccinology. We conducted an observational study consisting of a retrospective phase, exploiting previous data about anti-COVID-19 antibody responses, with a prospective phase to investigate individual variables through the use of a questionnaire. The antibody response after the COVID-19 vaccination was inversely related to old age, increased BMI and the number of smoking years, while a positive correlation was found with moderate alcohol consumption and especially with circulating levels of vitamin D, as clearly shown by the multivariate regression analysis. Our study showed that a number of variables are involved in the COVID-19 vaccine antibody response. These findings are very important and can be considered in the light of a future and personalized vaccinology.

Role of the 1st booster dose of COVID-19 vaccine in the protection against the infection: A fundamental public health tool

Introduction

The COVID-19 pandemic is having a huge impact on human health with high morbidity and mortality rates worldwide. Healthcare Workers (HCWs) are one of the most at risk categories to contract the infection. Effective anti-COVID-19 vaccines were approved in a very short time. Making the 1^st booster dose is essential to induce a good protection against the infection.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective sero-epidemiological survey of already existing data concerning the antibody response of a HCWs sample vaccinated with the primary cycle and the 1^st booster dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 mRNA vaccine and, specifically, after three weeks from the third dose of vaccination.

Results

In our analysis, after the primary cycle, a 95.15% efficacy was detected. Among the non-responders, women were significantly more frequent (69.56%). Moreover, we found a significant reverse correlation between the immune response and the age of the sample, especially in women. However, the 1^st booster dose completely cancelled these differences.

Conclusions

Our data are perfectly in line with what has been declared by the conducted studies in terms of efficacy. However, it is important to highlight that people with only the primary cycle are at high risk to contract the COVID-19 infection. Therefore, it is necessary to not consider people vaccinated with the primary cycle completely risk-free and to stress the importance to perform the 1^st booster dose.

Characteristics and methodological standards across systematic reviews with Meta-analysis of efficacy and/or effectiveness of influenza vaccines: an overview of reviews

BACKGROUND

While systematic reviews (SR) generally suggest that vaccination is an effective way to prevent influenza infection, it is not clear if these conclusions are based on high quality SR methods. As such, we systematically identified, critically appraised, and summarised the characteristics and adherence to methodological standards in SRs with meta-analysis of efficacy/effectiveness of influenza vaccines.

METHODS

We searched MEDLINE, Embase, Scopus, CINAHL, Global Health, and CDSR for English-language SR publications up to July 11, 2022. We summarised the characteristics, adherence to methodological standards and SR quality (AMSTAR 2).

RESULTS

From 11,193 retrieved citations, we included 48 publications (47 SRs). Seventy-five percent were of a critically low quality, 19% of a low quality, 2% of a moderate quality, and 4% of a high quality. Thirteen percent were industry-funded, about 13% co-authored by industry employee(s), and 4% commissioned by an organisation or authority. Only 45% percent reported protocol registration, 6% reported collaboration with a knowledge synthesis librarian/information specialist, and 60% utilised a reporting checklist (e.g. PRISMA).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

SRs with meta-analysis of efficacy/effectiveness of influenza vaccines are mostly of critically low quality and even the more recent reviews did not follow current best SR practices. These findings are significant in view of the controversies that surround influenza vaccines, and the use of SRs in informed decision-making. However, the findings do not justify curtailment or cessation of influenza vaccine use as vaccines continue to offer substantial net public health benefit.HighlightsWe systematically identified, critically appraised, and summarised the characteristics and adherence to methodological standards in 47 systematic reviews with meta-analysis of efficacy/effectiveness of influenza vaccines.13% of the reviews were industry-funded.About 13% of the reviews were co-authored by industry employee(s).4% of the reviews were commissioned by an organisation/authority.45% of the reviews reported protocol registration.6% of the reviews reported collaborating with a knowledge synthesis librarian/information specialist to prepare the search strategy.60% of the reviews reported using the PRISMA (or similar) checklist.75% of the reviews were judged to be of critically low quality; 19% of low quality; 2% of moderate quality; 4% of high quality.

Recent Increases in Influenza-Related Hospitalizations, Critical Care Resource Use, and In-Hospital Mortality: A 10-Year Population-Based Study in South Korea

Background: Long-term trends in influenza-related hospitalizations, critical care resource use, and hospital outcomes since the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic season have been rarely studied for adult populations. Materials and Methods: Adult patients from the Korean Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service who were hospitalized with influenza over a 10-year period (2009−2019) were analyzed. The incidence rates of hospitalization, critical care resource use, and in-hospital death were calculated using mid-year population census data. Results: In total, 300,152 hospitalized patients with influenza were identified (men, 35.7%; admission to tertiary hospitals, 9.4%). Although the age-adjusted hospitalization rate initially decreased since the 2009 H1N1 pandemic (52.61/100,000 population in 2009/2010), it began to increase again in 2013/2014 and reached a peak of 169.86/100,000 population in 2017/2018 (p < 0.001). The in-hospital mortality rate showed a similar increasing trend as the hospitalization, with a peak of 1.44/100,000 population in 2017/2018 (vs. 0.35/100,000 population in 2009/2010; p < 0.001). The high incidence rates of both hospitalization and in-hospital mortality were mainly attributable to patients aged ≥60 years. The rate of intensive care unit admission and the use of mechanical ventilation, continuous renal replacement therapy and vasopressors have also increased from the 2013/2014 season. The incidence of heart failure was the most frequent complication investigated, with a three-fold increase in the last two seasons since 2009/2010. In multivariate analysis adjusted for covariates, among hospitalized patients, type of hospitals and 2009 H1N1 pandemic season were associated with in-hospital mortality. Conclusions: We confirmed that the rates of hospitalization, critical care resource use, and in-hospital mortality by influenza have increased again in recent years. Therefore, strategies are needed to reduce infections and optimize resource use with a greater focus on older people.

Persistence of avian influenza virus (H9N2) on plastic surface

Plastics have been found to be colonized with pathogens and may become vectors for transmission of diseases. In this study, we evaluated the persistence of H9N2 avian influenza virus (AIV) on the surfaces of various plastics (PP, PE, PS, PET, PVC, PMMA) under different environmental conditions using glass and stainless steel for comparison. Our results showed that the RNA abundance of AIV on plastics was decreased over time but still detectable 14 days after AIV had been dropped on plastic surfaces. Low temperature (4 °C) was more favorable for AIV RNA preservation and infectivity maintenance. The abundance of AIV RNA was significantly greater on polyethylene terephthalate (PET) than that on glass and stainless steel at higher temperature (i.e., 25 °C and 37 °C) and lower humidity (<20% and 40-60%) (p < 0.05). Infectivity assay showed that AIV infectivity was only maintained at 4 °C after 24 h of incubation. Taken together, the persistence of AIV was more affected by environmental factors than material types. Plastics were able to preserve viral RNA more effectively in relatively high-temperature or low-humidity environments. Our study indicates that environmental factors should be taken into consideration when we evaluate the capacity of plastics to spread viruses.

ProbeTools: designing hybridization probes for targeted genomic sequencing of diverse and hypervariable viral taxa

BACKGROUND

Sequencing viruses in many specimens is hindered by excessive background material from hosts, microbiota, and environmental organisms. Consequently, enrichment of target genomic material is necessary for practical high-throughput viral genome sequencing. Hybridization probes are widely used for enrichment in many fields, but their application to viral sequencing faces a major obstacle: it is difficult to design panels of probe oligo sequences that broadly target many viral taxa due to their rapid evolution, extensive diversity, and genetic hypervariability. To address this challenge, we created ProbeTools, a package of bioinformatic tools for generating effective viral capture panels, and for assessing coverage of target sequences by probe panel designs in silico. In this study, we validated ProbeTools by designing a panel of 3600 probes for subtyping the hypervariable haemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) genome segments of avian-origin influenza A viruses (AIVs). Using in silico assessment of AIV reference sequences and in vitro capture on egg-cultured viral isolates, we demonstrated effective performance by our custom AIV panel and ProbeTools' suitability for challenging viral probe design applications.

RESULTS

Based on ProbeTool's in silico analysis, our panel provided broadly inclusive coverage of 14,772 HA and 11,967 NA reference sequences. For each reference sequence, we calculated the percentage of nucleotide positions covered by our panel in silico; 90% of HA and NA references sequences had at least 90.8 and 95.1% of their nucleotide positions covered respectively. We also observed effective in vitro capture on a representative collection of 23 egg-cultured AIVs that included isolates from wild birds, poultry, and humans and representatives from all HA and NA subtypes. Forty-two of forty-six HA and NA segments had over 98.3% of their nucleotide positions significantly enriched by our custom panel. These in vitro results were further used to validate ProbeTools' in silico coverage assessment algorithm; 89.2% of in silico predictions were concordant with in vitro results.

CONCLUSIONS

ProbeTools generated an effective panel for subtyping AIVs that can be deployed for genomic surveillance, outbreak prevention, and pandemic preparedness. Effective probe design against hypervariable AIV targets also validated ProbeTools' design and coverage assessment algorithms, demonstrating their suitability for other challenging viral capture applications.

The dark side of Tregs during aging

In the last century, we have seen a dramatic rise in the number of older persons globally, a trend known as the grey (or silver) tsunami. People live markedly longer than their predecessors worldwide, due to remarkable changes in their lifestyle and in progresses made by modern medicine. However, the older we become, the more susceptible we are to a series of age-related pathologies, including infections, cancers, autoimmune diseases, and multi-morbidities. Therefore, a key challenge for our modern societies is how to cope with this fragile portion of the population, so that everybody could have the opportunity to live a long and healthy life. From a holistic point of view, aging results from the progressive decline of various systems. Among them, the distinctive age-dependent changes in the immune system contribute to the enhanced frailty of the elderly. One of these affects a population of lymphocytes, known as regulatory T cells (Tregs), as accumulating evidence suggest that there is a significant increase in the frequency of these cells in secondary lymphoid organs (SLOs) of aged animals. Although there are still discrepancies in the literature about modifications to their functional properties during aging, mounting evidence suggests a detrimental role for Tregs in the elderly in the context of bacterial and viral infections by suppressing immune responses against non-self-antigens. Interestingly, Tregs seem to also contribute to the reduced effectiveness of immunizations against many pathogens by limiting the production of vaccine-induced protective antibodies. In this review, we will analyze the current state of understandings about the role of Tregs in acute and chronic infections as well as in vaccination response in both humans and mice. Lastly, we provide an overview of current strategies for Treg modulation with potential future applications to improve the effectiveness of vaccines in older individuals.

Immune ageing at single-cell resolution

Ageing leads to profound alterations in the immune system and increases susceptibility to some chronic, infectious and autoimmune diseases. In recent years, widespread application of single-cell techniques has enabled substantial progress in our understanding of the ageing immune system. These comprehensive approaches have expanded and detailed the current views of ageing and immunity. Here we review a body of recent studies that explored how the immune system ages using unbiased profiling techniques at single-cell resolution. Specifically, we discuss an emergent understanding of age-related alterations in innate and adaptive immune cell populations, antigen receptor repertoires and immune cell-supporting microenvironments of the peripheral tissues. Focusing on the results obtained in mice and humans, we describe the multidimensional data that align with established concepts of immune ageing as well as novel insights emerging from these studies. We further discuss outstanding questions in the field and highlight techniques that will advance our understanding of immune ageing in the future.

Homotypic protection against influenza in a pediatric cohort in Managua, Nicaragua

The period of protection from repeat infection following symptomatic influenza is not well established due to limited availability of longitudinal data. Using data from a pediatric cohort in Managua, Nicaragua, we examine the effects of natural influenza virus infection on subsequent infection with the same influenza virus subtype/lineage across multiple seasons, totaling 2,170 RT-PCR-confirmed symptomatic influenza infections. Logistic regression models assessed whether infection in the prior influenza season protected against homologous reinfection. We sequenced viruses from 2011-2019 identifying dominant clades and measuring antigenic distances between hemagglutinin clades. We observe homotypic protection from repeat infection in children infected with influenza A/H1N1pdm (OR 0.12, CI 0.02-0.88), A/H3N2 (OR 0.41, CI 0.24-0.73), and B/Victoria (OR 0.00, CI 0.00-0.14), but not with B/Yamagata viruses (OR 0.60, CI 0.09-2.10). Overall, protection wanes as time or antigenic distance increases. Individuals infected with one subtype or lineage of influenza virus have significantly lower odds of homologous reinfection for the following one to two years; after two years this protection wanes. This protection is demonstrated across multiple seasons, subtypes, and lineages among children.

Clinical validation of a multiplex PCR-based detection assay using saliva or nasopharyngeal samples for SARS-Cov-2, influenza A and B

The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in significant diversion of human and material resources to COVID-19 diagnostics, to the extent that influenza viruses and co-infection in COVID-19 patients remains undocumented and pose serious public-health consequences. We optimized and validated a highly sensitive RT-PCR based multiplex-assay for the detection of SARS-CoV-2, influenza A and B viruses in a single-test. This study evaluated clinical specimens (n = 1411), 1019 saliva and 392 nasopharyngeal swab (NPS), tested using two-assays: FDA-EUA approved SARS-CoV-2 assay that targets N and ORF1ab gene, and the PKamp-RT-PCR based assay that targets SARS-CoV-2, influenza viruses A and B. Of the 1019 saliva samples, 17.0% (174/1019) tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 using either assay. The detection rate for SARS-CoV-2 was higher with the multiplex assay compared to SARS-specific assay [91.9% (160/174) vs. 87.9% (153/174)], respectively. Of the 392 NPS samples, 10.4% (41/392) tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 using either assay. The detection rate for SARS-CoV-2 was higher with the multiplex assay compared to SARS-specific assay [97.5% (40/41) vs. 92.1% (39/41)], respectively. This study presents clinical validation of a multiplex-PCR assay for testing SARS-CoV-2, influenza A and B viruses, using NPS and saliva samples, and demonstrates the feasibility of implementing the assay without disrupting the existing laboratory workflow.

Defining the Recipe for an Optimal Rotavirus Vaccine Introduction in a High-Income Country in Europe

Observational data over 15 years of rotavirus vaccine introduction in Belgium have indicated that rotavirus hospitalisations in children aged <5 years plateaued at a higher level than expected, and was followed by biennial disease peaks. The research objective was to identify factors influencing these real-world vaccine impact data. We constructed mathematical models simulating rotavirus-related hospitalisations by age group and year for those children. Two periods were defined using different model constructs. First, the vaccine uptake period encompassed the years required to cover the whole at-risk population. Second, the post-uptake period covered the years in which a new infection/disease equilibrium was reached. The models were fitted to the observational data using optimisation programmes with regression and differential equations. Modifying parameter values identified factors affecting the pattern of hospitalisations. Results indicated that starting vaccination well before the peak disease season in the first year and rapidly achieving high coverage was critical in maximising early herd effect and minimising secondary sources of infection. This, in turn, would maximise the reduction in hospitalisations and minimise the size and frequency of subsequent disease peaks. The analysis and results identified key elements to consider for countries initiating an optimal rotavirus vaccine launch programme.

Influenza circulating viruses, positivity rate and risk factors for influenza associated severe acute respiratory infection during 2018/2019 winter season, Yemen

BACKGROUND

The burden of seasonal influenza in conflict counties is exacerbated due to limited resource and collapse of health system. During 2018 /2019 season, two-fold increase in the incidence of influenza was reported in Yemen with 22% case fatality of severe acute respiratory infection (SARI). The aims are to analyze the influenza circulating viruses, positivity rate and risk factors for hospitalizing influenza associated-SARI.

METHODOLOGY

We used a retrospective analytical study based on surveillance data. All reported patients during 2018/2019 season, fulfilling the WHO cases definition for SARI or influenza like illness (ILI), and had laboratory result from the National Laboratory were included. Influenza positivity rate was calculated, all SARI and ILI patients with positive influenza were included for further analysis by univariate and multivariate binary logistic regression. Crude and adjusted Odds ratio (AOR), 95% confidence interval and P-value < 0.05 were used for statistically significant.

RESULTS

Out of 2186 patients enrolled, 768 patients were tested for influenza viruses,: 19% were children < 15 years, 15% were ≥ 65 years, 69% males and 18% had co-morbidity with chronic diseases. Patients with SARI were 37% and 63% were ILI patients. Influenza viruses were detected in 411 (53.5%), 68% were influenza A subtype (H1N1)pdm09, 27% influenza B and 5% was influenza A not subtyped. The influenza positivity was significantly higher in SARI compared to ILI for patients < 15 years (95% vs, 66%, p < 0.001), and patients ≥ 65 years (83% vs. 56%, p < 0.002), respectively. The highest positivity for influenza type A and B reached 44% and 33% for patients ≥ 65 years and < 15 years, respectively. The risk factors for influenza-associated SARI in multivariate analysis included age < 5 [AOR 2.8] and ≥ 65 years old [AOR 3.1] compared to age 5- < 25 years, diabetes [AOR 4.7], heart diseases [AOR 3.1] and chronic respiratory diseases [AOR 5.0].

CONCLUSION

The influenza positivity during 2018/2019 winter season was high in Yemen and varied by age distribution. Influenza subtype A (H1N1) pdm09 was the predominant and co circulated with influenza B. An influenza vaccination program for the risk group is necessary. Strengthening lab capacity to detect respiratory pathogens and further prospective study for more comprehensive picture are recommended.

Characterizing the transmission patterns of seasonal influenza in Italy: lessons from the last decade

BACKGROUND

Despite thousands of influenza cases annually recorded by surveillance systems around the globe, estimating the transmission patterns of seasonal influenza is challenging.

METHODS

We develop an age-structured mathematical model to influenza transmission to analyze ten consecutive seasons (from 2010 to 2011 to 2019-2020) of influenza epidemiological and virological data reported to the Italian surveillance system.

RESULTS

We estimate that 18.4-29.3% of influenza infections are detected by the surveillance system. Influenza infection attack rate varied between 12.7 and 30.5% and is generally larger for seasons characterized by the circulation of A/H3N2 and/or B types/subtypes. Individuals aged 14 years or less are the most affected age-segment of the population, with A viruses especially affecting children aged 0-4 years. For all influenza types/subtypes, the mean effective reproduction number is estimated to be generally in the range 1.09-1.33 (9 out of 10 seasons) and never exceeding 1.41. The age-specific susceptibility to infection appears to be a type/subtype-specific feature.

CONCLUSIONS

The results presented in this study provide insights on type/subtype-specific transmission patterns of seasonal influenza that could be instrumental to fine-tune immunization strategies and non-pharmaceutical interventions aimed at limiting seasonal influenza spread and burden.

DeepFlu: a deep learning approach for forecasting symptomatic influenza A infection based on pre-exposure gene expression

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Not everyone gets sick after an exposure to influenza A viruses (IAV). Although KLRD1 has been identified as a potential biomarker for influenza susceptibility, it remains unclear whether forecasting symptomatic flu infection based on pre-exposure host gene expression might be possible.

METHOD

To examine this hypothesis, we developed DeepFlu using the state-of-the-art deep learning approach on the human gene expression data infected with IAV subtype H1N1 or H3N2 viruses to forecast who would catch the flu prior to an exposure to IAV.

RESULTS

The results indicated that such forecast is possible and, in other words, gene expression could reflect the strength of host immunity. In the leave-one-person-out cross-validation, DeepFlu based on deep neural network outperformed the models using convolutional neural network, random forest, or support vector machine, achieving 70.0% accuracy, 0.787 AUROC, and 0.758 AUPR for H1N1 and 73.8% accuracy, 0.847 AUROC, and 0.901 AUPR for H3N2. In the external validation, DeepFlu also reached 71.4% accuracy, 0.700 AUROC, and 0.723 AUPR for H1N1 and 73.5% accuracy, 0.732 AUROC, and 0.749 AUPR for H3N2, surpassing the KLRD1 biomarker. In addition, DeepFlu which was trained only by pre-exposure data worked the best than by other time spans and mixed training data of H1N1 and H3N2 did not necessarily enhance prediction. DeepFlu is available at https://github.com/ntou-compbio/DeepFlu.

CONCLUSIONS

DeepFlu is a prognostic tool that can moderately recognize individuals susceptible to the flu and may help prevent the spread of IAV.

Clinical manifestations of influenza and performance of rapid influenza diagnostic test: A university hospital setting

BACKGROUND

Rapid influenza diagnostic test (RIDT) is a diagnostic tool that detects the influenza virus nucleoprotein antigen. The RIDT is widely used in clinical practice because it is simple and cost-effective, and provides results within 10-15 minutes.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed at evaluating the sensitivity and specificity of the Sofia® RIDT compared with the Luminex® multiplex polymerase chain reaction (PCR). The other goal was to determine the predicting factors for diagnosing influenza among individuals with influenza-like illness (ILI).

METHOD

Patients with ILI who had the results of both tests were retrospectively reviewed. We determined the performances of the RIDT.

RESULTS

A total of 473 patients were included with a median age of 58 (interquartile range 41-74) years. Of these, 47.1% were male, and 16.2% were diagnosed with influenza by the RIDT or RT-PCR's positive test. For influenza A, the RIDT showed a sensitivity of 76.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] 59.8-88.6) and a specificity of 97.9% (95% CI 96.1-99.0), whereas for influenza B, it showed a sensitivity of 47.1% (95% CI 23.0-72.2) and a specificity of 97.1% (95% CI 95.2-98.5). Patients with influenza were more likely to present with fever (81.8% vs 63.1%), cough (81.8% vs 66.1%), and rhinorrhea (41.6% vs 26.5%) compared to those without influenza (P < 0.05, all), and had a higher proportion of pneumonia (19.5% vs 10.6%, P = 0.029) and acute respiratory distress syndrome (5.2% vs 1.5%, P = 0.063). The predicting factors for influenza among patients presented with ILI were cough (odds ratio [OR] 2.77; 95% CI 0.21-0.81, P = 0.010), rhinorrhea (OR 1.87; 95% CI 1.03-3.36, P = 0.037), and higher body temperature (OR 1.64; 95% CI 1.23-2.19, P = 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The sensitivity of the RIDT for the diagnosis of influenza is fair in contrast to the specificity. Among patients with ILI, cough, rhinorrhea, and higher body temperature might be factors for predicting influenza.

Composition and Dynamics of H1N1 and H7N9 Influenza A Virus Quasispecies in a Co-infected Patient Analyzed by Single Molecule Sequencing Technology

A human co-infected with H1N1 and H7N9 subtypes influenza A virus (IAV) causes a complex infectious disease. The identification of molecular-level variations in composition and dynamics of IAV quasispecies will help to understand the pathogenesis and provide guidance for precision medicine treatment. In this study, using single-molecule real-time sequencing (SMRT) technology, we successfully acquired full-length IAV genomic sequences and quantified their genotypes abundance in serial samples from an 81-year-old male co-infected with H1N1 and H7N9 subtypes IAV. A total of 26 high diversity nucleotide loci was detected, in which the A-G base transversion was the most abundant substitution type (67 and 64%, in H1N1 and H7N9, respectively). Seven significant amino acid variations were detected, such as NA:H275Y and HA: R222K in H1N1 as well as PB2:E627K and NA: K432E in H7N9, which are related to viral drug-resistance or mammalian adaptation. Furtherly, we retrieved 25 H1N1 and 22 H7N9 genomic segment haplotypes from the eight samples based on combining high-diversity nucleotide loci, which provided a more concise overview of viral quasispecies composition and dynamics. Our approach promotes the popularization of viral quasispecies analysis in a complex infectious disease, which will boost the understanding of viral infections, pathogenesis, evolution, and precision medicine.

Estimating the national burden of hospitalizations for influenza-associated severe acute respiratory infection in the Lao People's Democratic Republic, 2016

Objective

Estimates of the burden of influenza are needed to inform prevention and control activities for seasonal influenza, including to support the development of appropriate vaccination policies. We used sentinel surveillance data on severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) to estimate the burden of influenza-associated hospitalizations in the Lao People's Democratic Republic.

Methods

Using methods developed by the World Health Organization, we combined data from hospital logbook reviews with epidemiological and virological data from influenza surveillance from 1 January to 31 December 2016 in defined catchment areas for two sentinel sites (Champasack and Luang Prabang provincial hospitals) to derive population-based estimates of influenza-associated SARI hospitalization rates. Hospitalization rates by age group were then applied to national age-specific population estimates using 2015 census data.

Results

We estimated the overall influenza-associated SARI hospitalization rate to be 48/100 000 population (95% confidence interval [CI]: 44–51) or 3097 admissions (95% CI: 2881–3313). SARI hospitalization rates were estimated to be as low as 40/100 000 population (95% CI: 37–43) and as high as 92/100 000 population (95% CI: 87–98) after accounting for SARI patient underascertainment in hospital logbooks. Influenza-associated SARI hospitalization rates were highest in children aged < 5 years (219; 95% CI: 198–241) and persons aged ³ 65 years (106; 95% CI: 91–121).

Discussion

Our findings have identified age groups at higher risk for influenza-associated SARI hospitalization, which will support policy decisions for influenza prevention and control strategies, including for vaccination. Further work is needed to estimate the burdens of outpatient influenza and influenza in specific high-risk subpopulations.

Burden of Pneumonia Among Hospitalized Patients with Influenza: Real-World Evidence from a US Managed Care Population

Introduction

Pneumonia is among the most prevalent complications of influenza. The purpose of this study is to quantify the burden of pneumonia among hospitalized patients with influenza.

Methods

Real-world retrospective data from 01JAN2014-30JUN2019 (study period) were obtained from Optum’s de-identified Clinformatics® Data Mart Database (2007–2020) for patients who had ≥ 1 diagnosis for influenza during the identification period and ≥ 1 all-cause inpatient visit within 1 day of diagnosis. Cases had ≥ 1 diagnosis claim for an influenza-related pneumonia within the 30 days after the initial influenza diagnosis date. Controls had no evidence of influenza-related pneumonia in the 30 days following the initial influenza diagnosis. Final 1:1 matching was determined using propensity score matching (PSM). Statistical significance between the cohorts was tested.

Results

After PSM, there were 4878 hospitalized patients with influenza in each of the case and control groups. During the index hospitalization, cases vs. controls had longer length of stay [Mean (standard deviation): 6.5 (8.3) vs. 1.9 (3.7)], greater intensive care unit (ICU) use (38.4 vs. 16.8%), and greater mechanical ventilation use (invasive: 11.4 vs. 2.3%; non-invasive: 6.8 vs. 2.6%) (all p < 0.001). Cases also had higher readmission rates than controls (12.3 vs. 3.5% within 30 days; 20.0 vs. 6.1% within 90 days; p < 0.001 for both). Post-index date direct all-cause healthcare costs were higher for cases than for controls (median total cost: $18,428 vs. $621 for 30 days; $21,774 vs. $3312 for 90 days; $25,960 vs. $8699 for 6 months; $35,875 vs. $21,619 for 1 year; all p < 0.001).

Conclusions

Pneumonia as a complication of influenza increases risk of mortality and leads to greater healthcare resource use and direct medical costs among patients hospitalized with influenza. These effects are seen early during the index hospitalization and within the first 30 days after diagnosis, but their impact continues throughout a year of follow-up.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s41030-021-00169-2.

Influenza vaccine acceptance and hesitancy among adults hospitalized with severe acute respiratory illnesses, United States 2019-2020

INTRODUCTION

Understanding patient factors associated with not being vaccinated is essential for successful implementation of influenza vaccination programs.

METHODS

We enrolled adults hospitalized with severe acute respiratory illness at 10 United States (US) hospitals during the 2019-2020 influenza season. We interviewed patients to collect data about influenza vaccination, sociodemographic characteristics, and vaccine perceptions.

RESULTS

Among 679 participants, 264 (38.9%) reported not receiving influenza vaccination. Among those not vaccinated, 135 (51.1%) reported choosing not to receive a vaccine because of perceived ineffectiveness (36.7%) or risk (14.4%) of influenza vaccination. Sociodemographic factors associated with not being vaccinated included no medical insurance (aOR = 6.42; 95% CI: 2.52-16.38) and being non-White or Hispanic (aOR = 1.54, 95% CI: 1.02-2.32).

CONCLUSIONS

Optimizing uptake of influenza vaccination in the US may be improved by educational programs regarding vaccine safety and effectiveness and enhancing vaccine access, particularly among non-White and Hispanic Americans and those without medical insurance.

Considerations for a Respiratory Syncytial Virus Vaccine Targeting an Elderly Population

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is most commonly associated with acute lower respiratory tract infections in infants and children. However, RSV also causes a high disease burden in the elderly that is often under recognized. Adults >65 years of age account for an estimated 80,000 RSV-associated hospitalizations and 14,000 deaths in the United States annually. RSV infection in aged individuals can result in more severe disease symptoms including pneumonia and bronchiolitis. Given the large disease burden caused by RSV in the aged, this population remains an important target for vaccine development. Aging results in lowered immune responsiveness characterized by impairments in both innate and adaptive immunity. This immune senescence poses a challenge when developing a vaccine targeting elderly individuals. An RSV vaccine tailored towards an elderly population will need to maximize the immune response elicited in order to overcome age-related defects in the immune system. In this article, we review the hurdles that must be overcome to successfully develop an RSV vaccine for use in the elderly, and discuss the vaccine candidates currently being tested in this highly susceptible population.

National Prevalence of Influenza Diagnoses and Vaccination Rates Among Patients Presenting to United States Physician Offices and Hospital Outpatient Departments, 2009 to 2016

Background

Influenza health resource utilization studies are important to inform future public health policies and prevent outbreaks. This study aimed to describe influenza prevalence, vaccination, and treatment among outpatients in the United States and to evaluate population-level characteristics associated with influenza health resource utilization.

Methods

Data were extracted from the National Ambulatory and National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Surveys (2009 to 2016). Prevalence rates were described as influenza visits (defined by International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification or International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision code) per 1000 total visits overall and by flu year, month, region, race, and age group. Influenza vaccination and antiviral treatments were identified by Multum code(s) and presented as vaccination visits per 1000 total visits and the percentage of patients diagnosed with influenza receiving antiviral treatment.

Results

In more than 19.2 million patient visits, an influenza diagnosis was made with rates ranging from 1.2 per 1000 during 2014–2015 to 3.7 per 1000 during 2009–2010. Rates were highest in the South (3.6 per 1000), in December (5.2), among black patients (2.8), and those less than 18 years (6.8). Vaccination rates were highest during 2014–2015 (29.3 per 1000) and lowest during 2011–2012 (15.5 per 1000), in the West (23.4), in October (69.2), among “other race” patients (26.2), and age less than 18 years (51.4). Overall, 39.4% of patients with an influenza diagnosis received an antiviral.

Conclusions

Overall, there were no major changes in influenza diagnosis or vaccination rates. Patient populations with lower vaccination rates had higher influenza diagnosis rates. Future campaigns should promote influenza vaccinations particularly in underserved populations.

Value of clinical laboratory test for early prediction of mortality in patients with COVID-19: the BGM score

Background:

COVID-19 causes high mortality and long hospitalization periods. The aim of this study was to search for new early prognostic strategies accessible to most health care centers.

Methods:

Laboratory results, demographic and clinical data from 500 patients with positive SARS-CoV-2 infection were included in our study. The data set was split into training and test set prior to generating different multivariate models considering the occurrence of death as the response variable. A final computational method called the BGM score was obtained by combining the previous models and is available as an interactive web application.

Results:

The logistic regression model comprising age, creatinine (CREA), D-dimer (DD), C-reactive protein (CRP), platelet count (PLT), and troponin I (TNI) showed a sensitivity of 47.3%, a specificity of 98.7%, a kappa of 0.56, and a balanced accuracy of 0.73. The CART classification tree yielded TNI, age, DD, and CRP as the most potent early predictors of mortality (sensitivity = 68.4%, specificity = 92.5%, kappa = 0.61, and balanced accuracy = 0.80). The artificial neural network including age, CREA, DD, CRP, PLT, and TNI yielded a sensitivity of 66.7%, a specificity of 92.3%, a kappa of 0.54, and a balanced accuracy of 0.79. Finally, the BGM score surpassed the prediction accuracy performance of the independent multivariate models, yielding a sensitivity of 73.7%, a specificity of 96.5%, a kappa of 0.74, and a balanced accuracy of 0.85.

Conclusions:

The BGM score may support clinicians in managing COVID-19 patients and providing focused interventions to those with an increased risk of mortality.

Impact of seasonal influenza on polyclinic attendances for upper respiratory tract infections in Singapore

Purpose

The burden of influenza on primary health-care services is not well established in tropical countries, where there are no clearly defined influenza seasons. We aimed to estimate the association between influenza infection activity and polyclinic attendance rates for upper respiratory tract infections (URTIs) in the Singapore population.

Methods

We used generalized additive time series models to estimate the association between the proportion of respiratory tests positive for influenza infection in Singapore reported to the World Health Organization every week, and the population rate of polyclinic attendances in Singapore for physician-diagnosed URTI, which includes influenza-like illness (ILI), for six years from 2012 through 2017. Where data were available, we controlled for other infections that can cause fever or respiratory symptoms.

Results

Influenza, dengue fever and chickenpox (varicella) were positively associated with acute URTI polyclinic attendances. The estimated URTI polyclinic attendance rates attributable to influenza, dengue fever and chickenpox were 618.9 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 501.6–736.3), 153.3 (95% CI: 16.5–290.2) and 1751.5 (95% CI: 1246.3–2256.8) per 100 000 population per year, respectively.

Conclusion

Influenza poses a considerable burden on primary health-care services in Singapore. However, a substantial number of polyclinic attendances due to febrile infections such as dengue fever and chickenpox appear to be recorded as URTI in the polyclinic database. These associations require further investigation.

National retrospective cohort study to identify risk factors for in-hospital 30-day lethality in laboratory-confirmed cases of influenza

OBJECTIVE

To identify factors associated with the risk of death in adolescent and adult inpatients with laboratory-positive (reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction) influenza in Mexico during consecutive influenza seasons (2018-2020).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A retrospective cohort study used national surveillance system data, enrolling 3422 individuals. The association between various risk factors and 30-day in-hospital lethality were evaluated through risk ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI).

RESULTS

The lethality rate was 18.1%. Flu vaccination history (RR = 0.56, 95% CI 0.42-0.78), early antiviral drug administration (≤ two days from symptom onset [reference ≥ 5 days], RR = 0.68, 95% CI 0.58-0.81), and a history of asthma (RR = 0.66, 95% CI 0.47-0.95) showed protective effects against influenza-attributable death. Mechanical ventilator support produced the highest increase in death risk (RR = 3.31, 95% CI 2.89-3.79). Male sex, older age, AH1N1 subtype, and other chronic diseases were also associated with fatal in-hospital influenza-related outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings highlight the major relevance of promoting immunization in high-risk individuals, together with ensuring early and effective antiviral management in suspected influenza cases.

Influenza-Specific Lung-Resident Memory CD8+ T Cells

Despite the availability of seasonal vaccines, influenza A (IAV) prevails as a leading cause of respiratory infection worldwide. Current vaccination efforts aim at increasing protection against heterologous and potentially pandemic IAV strains. Lung-resident CD8⁺ T cells (Trm) generated upon IAV infection are vital for heterosubtypic immunity to IAV reexposure and provide quick and robust responses upon reactivation. Yet, protection wanes with time as lung Trm cell numbers decline, a contrasting feature with Trm cells at other mucosal sites such as the skin. In this review, we discuss current data on lung Trm compared to Trm cells in other tissues. Furthermore, major knowledge gaps in the generation and maintenance of IAV-specific lung Trm are addressed and mechanisms that may contribute to their decline are discussed. Further understanding in the mechanisms that govern effector function versus immunopathology is paramount for future IAV vaccine design in enhancing durability of lung Trm cells.

B and T Cell Immunity in Tissues and Across the Ages

B and T cells are key components of the adaptive immune system and coordinate multiple facets of immunity including responses to infection, vaccines, allergens, and the environment. In humans, B- and T-cell immunity has been determined using primarily peripheral blood specimens. Conversely, human tissues have scarcely been studied but they host multiple adaptive immune cells capable of mounting immune responses to pathogens and participate in tissue homeostasis. Mucosal tissues, such as the intestines and respiratory track, are constantly bombarded by foreign antigens and contain tissue-resident memory T (T_RM) cells that exhibit superior protective capacity to pathogens. Also, tissue-resident memory B (B_RM) cells have been identified in mice but whether humans have a similar population remains to be confirmed. Moreover, the immune system evolves throughout the lifespan of humans and undergoes multiple changes in its immunobiology. Recent studies have shown that age-related changes in tissues are not necessarily reflected in peripheral blood specimens, highlighting the importance of tissue localization and subset delineation as essential determinants of functional B and T cells at different life stages. This review describes our current knowledge of the main B- and T-cell subsets in peripheral blood and tissues across age groups.

Influenza in Children

Influenza poses a significant disease burden on children worldwide, with high rates of hospitalization and substantial morbidity and mortality. Although the clinical presentation of influenza in children has similarities to that seen in adults, there are unique aspects to how children present with infection that are important to recognize. In addition, children play a significant role in viral transmission within communities. Growing evidence supports the idea that early influenza infection can uniquely establish lasting immunologic memory, making an understanding of how viral immunity develops in this population critical to better protect children from infection and to facilitate efforts to develop a more universally protective influenza vaccine.

National retrospective cohort study to identify risk factors for in-hospital 30-day lethality in laboratory-confirmed cases of influenza

OBJECTIVE

To identify factors associated with the risk of death in adolescent and adult inpatients with laboratory-positive (reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction) influenza in Mexico during consecutive influenza seasons (2018-2020).

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study used national surveillance system data, enrolling 3.422 individuals. The association between various risk factors and 30-day in-hospital lethality were evaluated through risk ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

The lethality rate was 18.1%. Flu vaccination history (RR=0.56, 95% CI 0.42-0.78), early antiviral drug administration (≤2 days from symptom onset [reference ≥5 days], RR=0.68, 95% CI 0.58-0.81), and a history of asthma (RR=0.66, 95% CI 0.47-0.95) showed protective effects against influenza-attributable death. Mechanical ventilator support produced the highest increase in death risk (RR=3.31, 95% CI 2.89-3.79). Male sex, older age, AH1N1 subtype, and other chronic diseases were also associated with fatal in-hospital influenza-related outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings highlight the major relevance of promoting immunization in high-risk individuals, together with ensuring early and effective antiviral management in suspected influenza cases.

Role of Inflammation in Virus Pathogenesis during Pregnancy

Viral infections during pregnancy lead to a spectrum of maternal and fetal outcomes, ranging from asymptomatic disease to more critical conditions presenting with severe maternal morbidity, stillbirth, preterm birth, intrauterine growth restriction, and fetal congenital anomalies, either apparent at birth or later in life. In this article, we review the pathogenesis of several viral infections that are particularly relevant in the context of pregnancy and intrauterine inflammation. Understanding the diverse mechanisms employed by viral pathogens as well as the repertoire of immune responses induced in the mother may help to establish novel therapeutic options to attenuate changes in the maternal-fetal interface and prevent adverse pregnancy outcomes.

Reasons behind flu vaccine acceptance and suggested interventions to promote flu vaccination acceptance among healthcare workers

The flu vaccination rate is still too low, both among healthcare providers (HCPs) and among health sciences university students. This study aims to assess the reasons of past and future flu vaccination acceptance among health sciences university students, and second, to identify what interventions would be helpful to foster acceptance of the flu vaccination among HCPs. A multicentre cross-sectional study was performed, using a validated questionnaire administered to health sciences students enrolled in 14 Italian universities. A multivariable logistic regression model was used. A total of 3131 questionnaires were collected. The statement that mandatory vaccination is required to increase adhesions to vaccinations (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 1.57; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.25-1.97), being in favour of this obligation (aOR = 7.91; 95% CI = 2.50-25.02) and considering themselves as people at risk of infection (aOR = 1.96; 95% CI = 1.46-2.64), are associated with having received the vaccination in the past flu season; on the other hand, planning to be vaccinated for the next season to avoid infecting patients is protective (aOR = 0.51; 95% CI = 0.38-0.70). This study shows which beliefs are associated with having joined the previous vaccination campaign in a large sample of HCPs. The acceptance of vaccination is an outcome behaviour resulting from a complex decision-making process. In order to implement coverage of the influenza vaccination in HCPs, it is necessary to implement awareness campaigns and provide specific information for this category of workers.

Understanding immunosenescence and its impact on vaccination of older adults

Older adults are more susceptible to viral and bacterial infection, and experience higher incidence and severity of infectious diseases. Although vaccination is the most logical solution in preventing infectious diseases, primary vaccine responses in individuals aged ≥65 years-old fail to generate complete protection. This is presumably attributed to immunosenescence, a term that describes functional differences associated with the immune system and natural age advancement. Both the innate and adaptive immune systems experience age-related impairments that contribute to insufficient protection following vaccination. This review addresses current knowledge of age-related changes that affect vaccine responsiveness; including the deficits in innate cell functions, dampened humoral and cell-mediated immune responses, current vaccination schedules for older adults, and concludes with potential strategies for improving vaccine efficacy specifically for this age group. Due to an age-related decline in immunity and poor vaccine responses, infectious diseases remain a burden among the aged population.

Efficacy, immunogenicity, and safety of a plant-derived, quadrivalent, virus-like particle influenza vaccine in adults (18-64 years) and older adults (≥65 years): two multicentre, randomised phase 3 trials

BACKGROUND

Seasonal influenza remains a substantial public health threat despite the availability of egg-derived and other vaccines. Plant-based manufacturing might address some of the limitations of current vaccines. We describe two phase 3 efficacy studies of a recombinant quadrivalent virus-like particle (QVLP) influenza vaccine manufactured in plants, one in adults aged 18-64 years (the 18-64 study) and one in older people aged 65 years and older (the 65-plus study).

METHODS

We did two randomised, observer-blind, multinational studies in the northern hemisphere in the 2017-18 (the 18-64 study) and 2018-19 (the 65-plus study) influenza seasons. The 18-64 study was done at 73 sites and the 65-plus study was done at 104 sites, both across Asia, Europe, and North America. In the 18-64 study, inclusion criteria were body-mass index less than 40 kg/m²; age 18-64 years at screening visit; and good health. In the 65-plus study, inclusion criteria were body-mass index of maximum 35 kg/m²; aged 65 years or older at screening visit; not living in a rehabilitation centre or care home; and no acute or evolving medical problems. Participants in the 18-64 study were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive either QVLP vaccine (30 μg haemagglutinin per strain) or placebo. Participants in the 65-plus study were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive QVLP vaccine (30 μg haemagglutinin per strain) or quadrivalent inactivated vaccine (QIV; 15 μg haemagglutinin per strain). The primary outcome in the 18-64 study was absolute vaccine efficacy to prevent laboratory-confirmed, respiratory illness caused by antigenically matched influenza strains. The primary outcome in the 65-plus study was relative vaccine efficacy to prevent laboratory-confirmed influenza-like illness caused by any influenza strain. The primary analyses were done in the per-protocol population and safety was assessed in all participants who received the assigned treatment. These studies are registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (18-64 study NCT03301051; 65-plus study NCT03739112).

FINDINGS

In the 18-64 study, between Aug 30, 2017, and Jan 15, 2018, 10 160 participants were randomly assigned to receive either QVLP vaccine (5077 participants) or placebo (5083 participants). The per-protocol population consisted of 4814 participants in the QVLP group and 4812 in the placebo group. The study did not meet its primary endpoint of 70% absolute vaccine efficacy for the QVLP vaccine (35·1% [95% CI 17·9 to 48·7]) against respiratory illness caused by matched strains. 55 (1·1%) of 5064 participants in the QVLP group versus 51 (1·0%) of 5072 in the placebo group had a serious adverse event. Four (0·1%) and six [0·1%] participants had severe treatment-related treatment-emergent adverse events. In the 65-plus study, between Sept 18, 2018, and Feb 22, 2019, 12 794 participants were randomly assigned to receive either QVLP vaccine (6396 participants) or QIV (6398 participants). The per-protocol population consisted of 5996 participants in the QVLP group and 6026 in the QIV group. The study met its primary non-inferiority endpoint with a relative vaccine efficacy of the QVLP vaccine for the prevention of influenza-like illness caused by any strain of 8·8% (-16·7 to 28·7). 263 (4·1%) of 6352 participants in the QVLP group versus 266 (4·2%) of 6366 in the QIV group had serious adverse events (one [<0·1%] vs two [<0·1%] were considered treatment-related); one (<0·1%) versus three (<0·1%) participants had severe treatment-related treatment-emergent adverse events.

INTERPRETATION

These efficacy studies are the first large-scale studies of any plant-derived human vaccine. Together, they show that the plant-derived QVLP vaccine can provide substantial protection against respiratory illness and influenza-like illness caused by influenza viruses in adults. QVLP vaccine was well tolerated and no major safety signal arose in participants who received QVLP vaccine across the two studies.

FUNDING

Medicago.

Quantifying the direct secondary health care cost of seasonal influenza in England

BACKGROUND

The winter pressure often experienced by NHS hospitals in England is considerably contributed to by severe cases of seasonal influenza resulting in hospitalisation. The prevention planning and commissioning of the influenza vaccination programme in the UK does not always involve those who control the hospital budget. The objective of this study was to describe the direct medical costs of secondary care influenza-related hospital admissions across different age groups in England during two consecutive influenza seasons.

METHODS

The number of hospital admissions, length of stay, and associated costs were quantified as well as determining the primary costs of influenza-related hospitalisations. Data were extracted from the Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) database between September 2017 to March 2018 and September 2018 to March 2019 in order to incorporate the annual influenza seasons. The use of international classification of disease (ICD)-10 codes were used to identify relevant influenza hospitalisations. Healthcare Resource Group (HRG) codes were used to determine the costs of influenza-related hospitalisations.

RESULTS

During the 2017/18 and 2018/19 seasons there were 46,215 and 39,670 influenza-related hospital admissions respectively. This resulted in a hospital cost of £128,153,810 and £99,565,310 across both seasons. Results showed that those in the 65+ year group were associated with the highest hospitalisation costs and proportion of in-hospital deaths. In both influenza seasons, the HRG code WJ06 (Sepsis without Interventions) was found to be associated with the longest average length of stay and cost per admission, whereas PD14 (Paediatric Lower Respiratory Tract Disorders without Acute Bronchiolitis) had the shortest length of stay.

CONCLUSION

This study has shown that influenza-related hospital admissions had a considerable impact on the secondary healthcare system during the 2017/18 and 2018/19 influenza seasons, before taking into account its impact on primary health care.

Ecologic association between influenza and COVID-19 mortality rates in European countries

Ecologic studies investigating COVID-19 mortality determinants, used to make predictions and design public health control measures, generally focused on population-based variable counterparts of individual-based risk factors. Influenza is not causally associated with COVID-19, but shares population-based determinants, such as similar incidence/mortality trends, transmission patterns, efficacy of non-pharmaceutical interventions, comorbidities and underdiagnosis. We investigated the ecologic association between influenza mortality rates and COVID-19 mortality rates in the European context. We considered the 3-year average influenza (2014-2016) and COVID-19 (31 May 2020) crude mortality rates in 34 countries using EUROSTAT and ECDC databases and performed correlation and regression analyses. The two variables - log transformed, showed significant Spearman's correlation ρ = 0.439 (P = 0.01), and regression coefficients, b = 0.743 (95% confidence interval, 0.272-1.214; R2 = 0.244; P = 0.003), b = 0.472 (95% confidence interval, 0.067-0.878; R2 = 0.549; P = 0.02), unadjusted and adjusted for confounders (population size and cardiovascular disease mortality), respectively. Common significant determinants of both COVID-19 and influenza mortality rates were life expectancy, influenza vaccination in the elderly (direct associations), number of hospital beds per population unit and crude cardiovascular disease mortality rate (inverse associations). This analysis suggests that influenza mortality rates were independently associated with COVID-19 mortality rates in Europe, with implications for public health preparedness, and implies preliminary undetected SARS-CoV-2 spread in Europe.