The predictive value of resting electrocardiograms for 12-year incidence of coronary heart disease in the Honolulu Heart Program

The prognostic implications of ST-segment and T-wave abnormalities in patients undergoing regadenoson stress SPECT myocardial perfusion imaging

BACKGROUND

The prognostic implications of ST-segment and T-wave (ST/T) abnormalities in patients undergoing stress SPECT-myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) are not well defined.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This was a single-center, retrospective cohort study of consecutive patients who underwent regadenoson stress SPECT-MPI. Patients with baseline electrocardiogram (ECG) abnormalities that impede ST/T analysis or those with known coronary artery disease were excluded. Patients were categorized as having primary ST abnormalities, secondary ST/T abnormalities due to ventricular hypertrophy or right bundle branch block, T-wave abnormalities, or normal ECG. The primary outcome was major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) defined as the composite of cardiac death or myocardial infarction. Among 6,059 subjects, 1912 (32%) had baseline ST/T abnormalities. During a mean follow-up of 2.3 ± 1.9 years, the incidence of MACE was significantly higher among patients with secondary ST/T abnormalities compared to those with normal ECG (HR 2.05; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.04-4.05; P = 0.039). No significant difference in MACE was observed among patients with primary ST abnormalities (HR 1.64; CI 0.87-3.06; P = 0.124) or T-wave abnormalities (HR 1.15; CI 0.62-2.16; P = 0.658) compared with patients who had normal ECG. Among patients with secondary ST/T changes, abnormal MPI was not associated with a significant increase in MACE rates compared to normal MPI (HR 1.18; CI 0.31-4.58; P = 0.808). However, abnormal MPI was associated with higher MACE rates among patients with primary ST abnormalities (HR 4.50; CI 1.44-14.10; P = 0.005) and T-wave abnormalities (HR 3.74; CI 1.20-11.68; P = 0.015). Similarly, myocardial ischemia on regadenoson stress SPECT-MPI was not associated with a significant increase in MACE rates in patients with secondary ST/T abnormalities (HR 1.45; CI 0.38-5.61; P = 0.588), while it was associated with a higher incidence of MACE in patients with primary ST abnormalities (HR 3.012; CI 0.95-9.53; P = 0.049) and T-wave abnormalities (HR 5.06; CI 1.60-15.96; P = 0.002).

CONCLUSION

While patients with secondary ST/T abnormalities had significantly higher MACE risk, abnormal MPI or presence of myocardial ischemia on regadenoson SPECT-MPI in this group does not add prognostic information. Patients with primary ST abnormalities and T-wave abnormalities do not seem to have a significantly higher MACE risk compared to those with normal ECG; however, abnormal MPI or presence of myocardial ischemia, in these groups, correlates with higher MACE rates.

A negative T-wave in electrocardiogram at 50 years predicted lifetime mortality in a random population-based cohort

Background

Severe electrocardiographic (ECG) abnormalities in asymptomatic subjects correlate with cardiovascular risk.

Hypothesis

The role of minor ECG abnormalities is less well‐known. We evaluated the association between a negative T‐wave and mortality, as a possible marker for prognosis.

Methods

A prospective, population‐based cohort, examined at 50 years, and followed until death. Time to death (event rates) and predictive role of a negative T‐wave (Cox regression) were analyzed.

Results

Participants (n = 839) with a negative T‐wave (7.3%) had significantly higher blood pressure (BP) (mean systolic 157.9 mmHg vs 136.8 mmHg without negative T‐wave, P = <.0001). A negative T‐wave correlated with elevated risk (hazard ratio [HR] [95% CI] [confidence interval]) for all‐cause and cardiovascular (CV) death (1.59 (1.20‐2.11) P = .0012 vs 1.91 (1.34‐2.73) P = .0004). The association remained after excluding coexisting Q/QS patterns and ST‐junction/segment depression ECG abnormalities (1.66 [1.13‐2.44] P = .0098 for all‐cause vs 1.87 [1.13‐3.09] P = .015 for CV death). Death from other causes was not associated with a negative T‐wave. A major negative T‐wave carried higher risk than a minor (2.17 [1.25‐3.76] P = .0062 vs 1.78 [1.13‐2.79] P = .012) for CV death.

Conclusion

A negative T‐wave at 50 years, in asymptomatic individuals, carried an increased risk of all‐cause and CV death during lifetime follow‐up.

Relation of Minor Electrocardiographic Abnormalities to Cardiovascular Mortality

Although minor electrocardiographic (ECG) abnormalities are common findings in clinical practice, their prognostic significance remains unclear due to inconsistent reports. We hypothesized that this inconsistency is due to the traditional focus on examining their prognostic significance as a binary variable (i.e., presence vs absence of any abnormality) ignoring the number of abnormalities. We tested this hypothesis in 6,467 participants (mean age 59 years, 53% women) from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey who were free of baseline cardiovascular disease (CVD) and major ECG abnormalities. ECG abnormalities were defined from digitally recorded and centrally processed standard electrocardiograms using the Minnesota ECG Classification. CVD mortality was ascertained using National Death Index. About 38% of participants (n = 2,438) had at least 1 minor ECG abnormality at baseline. During a median follow-up of 13.9 years, 755 CVD deaths occurred. In a multivariable Cox model, presence of at least 1 minor ECG abnormality was marginally associated with increased risk of CVD mortality (hazard ratio (95% confidence interval):1.15(1.00,1.34), p-value = 0.04)). However, as the number of ECG abnormalities increases, the association with CVD mortality showed a dose-response relation (event rate per 1,000 person-year of 7.3, 10.1, and 16.7 in participants with 0, 1, and ≥2 ECG abnormalities, respectively; p-value for trend <0.01). Also, each additional minor ECG abnormality was associated with a 13% increased risk of CVD mortality (hazard ratio (95% confidence interval): 1.13(1.04, 1.24)). In conclusion, the number, not only the mere presence of minor ECG abnormalities should be taken into account to understand the prognostic significance of these common findings.

Electrocardiographic abnormalities and mortality in aging survivors of childhood cancer: A report from the St Jude Lifetime Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Electrocardiography (ECG), predictive of adverse outcomes in the general population, has not been studied in cancer survivors. We evaluated the prevalence of ECG abnormalities and associations with mortality among childhood cancer survivors.

METHODS

Major and minor abnormalities were coded per the Minnesota Classification system for participants in the St Jude Lifetime Cohort Study (n = 2,715) and community controls (n = 268). Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs were calculated using multivariable logistic regression; and hazard ratios, using Cox proportional hazards regression.

RESULTS

Survivors were a median age of 31.3 (range 18.4-63.8) years at evaluation and 7.4 (range 0-24.8) years at diagnosis. Prior therapies included cardiac-directed radiation (29.5%), anthracycline (57.9%), and alkylating (60%) chemotherapies. The prevalence of minor ECG abnormalities was similar among survivors and controls (65.2% vs 67.5%, P = .6). Major ECG abnormalities were identified in 10.7% of survivors and 4.9% of controls (P < .001). Among survivors, the most common major abnormalities were isolated ST/T wave abnormalities (7.2%), evidence of myocardial infarction (3.7%), and left ventricular hypertrophy with strain pattern (2.8%). Anthracyclines ≥300 mg/m² (OR 1.7 95% CI 1.1-2.5) and cardiac radiation (OR 2.1 95% CI 1.5-2.9 [1-1,999 cGy], 2.6 95% CI 1.6-3.9 [2,000-2,999 cGy], 10.5 95% CI 6.5-16.9 [≥3,000 cGy]) were associated with major abnormalities. Thirteen participants had a cardiac-related death. Major abnormalities were predictive of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio 4.0 95% CI 2.1-7.8).

CONCLUSIONS

Major ECG abnormalities are common among childhood cancer survivors, associated with increasing doses of anthracyclines and cardiac radiation, and predictive of both cardiac and all-cause mortality.

The ability of an electrocardiogram to predict fatal and non-fatal cardiac events in asymptomatic middle-aged subjects

INTRODUCTION

The long-term prognostic value of a standard 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) for predicting cardiac events in apparently healthy middle-aged subjects is not well defined.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A total of 9511 middle-aged subjects (mean age 43 ± 8.2 years, 52% males) without a known cardiac disease and with a follow-up 40 years were included in the study. Fatal and non-fatal cardiac events were collected from the national registries. The predictive value of ECG was separately analyzed for 10 and 30 years. Major ECG abnormalities were classified according to the Minnesota code.

RESULTS

Subjects with major ECG abnormalities (N = 1131) had an increased risk of cardiac death after 10-years (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.7; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.1-2.5, p = 0.009) and 30-years of follow-up (HR 1.3, 95% CI, 1.1-1.5, p < 0.001). Model discrimination measured with the C-index showed only a minor improvement with the inclusion of ECG abnormalities: 0.851 versus 0.853 and 0.742 versus 0.743 for 10- and 30-year follow-up, respectively. ECG did not predict non-fatal cardiac events after 10-years or 30-years of follow-up.

DISCUSSION

Major ECG abnormalities are associated with an increased risk of short and long-term cardiac mortality in middle-aged subjects. However, the improvement in discrimination between subjects with and without fatal cardiac events was marginal with abnormal ECG.

KEY MESSAGES

Abnormalities observed on 12-lead electrocardiogram are shown to have prognostic significance for cardiac events in elderly subjects without known cardiac disease. Our results suggest that ECG abnormalities increase the risk of fatal cardiac events also in middle-aged healthy subjects.

High-Sensitivity C-Reactive Protein in Patients with Metabolic Syndrome

,!High-sensitivity C-reactive protein (CRP) has been shown to predict cardiovascular disease. Metabolic syndrome has been found to play a critical role in the development of cardiovascular disease. The purpose of this report is to assess the relationship between CRP and the metabolic syndrome. A total of 50 patients with metabolic syndrome and 40 healthy persons were included in the study. Plasma concentrations of CRP were measured by means of particle-enhanced immunonephelometry with the Behring nephelometer using N Latex CRP mono reagent. CRP levels were higher in patients with metabolic syndrome than control group (10.6 ±5.4 mg/L vs 3.5 ±0.8 mg/L, p<0.001). In partial correlation, plasma CRP positively correlated with body mass index (p<0.001), waist circumference (p<0.001), waist-to-hip ratio (p<0.01), total cholesterol (p<0.001), LDL-cholesterol (p=0.033), triglyceride (p=0.023), and fasting blood glucose (p=0.043) in patients with metabolic syndrome. HDL-cholesterol did not significantly correlate with CRP (p>0.05). In multiple regression analysis, body mass index (p<0.01), waist circumference (p<0.01), and fasting blood glucose (p<0.01) showed independent correlations with plasma CRP. CRP levels were found higher in patients with metabolic syndrome. These results suggest that abdominal obesity is the critical correlates of elevated plasma CRP levels found in patients with metabolic syndrome. These patients carrying high risk for cardiovascular events must be followed closely.

Metabolic syndrome: prevalence and association with electrocardiographic abnormalities in Nigerian hypertensive patients

BACKGROUND

Hypertension is an important component of metabolic syndrome, and a third of hypertensive patients have metabolic syndrome, with the common mechanistic pathway believed to be insulin resistance. It is probable that hypertensive patients with metabolic syndrome will have more severe cardiac abnormalities than those without. Similarly, electrocardiogram (ECG) abnormalities have serious implications for cardiovascular disease outcome. Data on association between metabolic syndrome and ECG abnormalities are scarce in Nigeria. This study aimed to assess the prevalence of metabolic syndrome and its components in hypertensive patients and possible association of metabolic syndrome with ECG abnormalities in them.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

One hundred and thirty-five new adult hypertensive patients were studied in a hospital-based cross-sectional study. Metabolic syndrome prevalence was estimated by National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP ATP III) criteria. ECG abnormalities were divided into minor and major abnormalities based on Novacode. SPSS IBM 20 was used to analyze data.

RESULTS

Mean age was 59.19 ± 13.33 (30-75 years). Metabolic syndrome prevalence was 40.74% (28.85% in males; 48.19% in females). Abnormal waist circumference (58.51%) was the commonest additional component of metabolic syndrome in these patients. ECG abnormalities were in 77.78% of the population, with 49.63% and 28.15% being minor and major abnormalities, respectively. There was no significant association between metabolic syndrome and ECG abnormalities in these patients.

CONCLUSION

Prevalence of metabolic syndrome in hypertensive patients was high, central obesity being the commonest component of the syndrome. The high prevalence of ECG abnormalities may be more a reflection of the presence of hypertension than any other component of the syndrome.

High efficient and cost-effective screening method for diabetic cardiovascular risk

BACKGROUND

The vascular complications of outpatients with diabetes at ordinary hospitals vary. Ischemic heart disease is barely predictable after treatment using previously reported therapeutic indices. We developed a simple and noninvasive screening method to evaluate the possibility of ischemic heart disease in patients with diabetes.

METHODS

Five years of clinical data from 337 outpatients (196 males and 141 females) with diabetes were analyzed. Twenty-three males and 14 females had ischemic heart disease. We examined the possibility of predicting ischemic heart disease after analyzing this population. The analyzed laboratory data included the following: minimum value of right or left ankle-brachial indices (ABI), maximum value of right or left pulse wave velocities (PWV), aortic calcification diagnosed on plain chest radiographs, plaque score (PS), maximum value of intima media thickness at the cervical artery (IMT), electrocardiographic (ECG) ischemic changes (including ST-T changes or abnormal Q waves, which were re-examined by a cardiologist), HbA1c, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), uric acid (UA), urine albumin, age, sex, disease duration, and body mass index. All data were subjected to multivariate logistic regression analyses.

RESULTS

The presence of ECG ischemic changes, aortic calcification, minimum ABI, maximum IMT, LDL-C, and UA were evaluated in multivariate logistic regression analysis with the onset of ischemic heart disease. The receiver operating characteristic curve indicated an area under the curve of 0.879 (0.820 - 0.938; P = 0.00).

CONCLUSIONS

Ischemic heart disease could be predicted in patients with diabetes using a combination of results from conventional physical and laboratory tests.

Major and minor electrocardiographic abnormalities and their association with underlying cardiovascular disease and risk factors in Hispanics/Latinos (from the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos)

The association of electrocardiographic (ECG) abnormalities with cardiovascular disease and risk factors has been extensively studied in whites and African-Americans. Comparable data have not been reported in Hispanics/Latinos. The Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos (HCHS/SOL) is a multicenter, community-based, prospective cohort study of men and women of diverse backgrounds aged 18 to 74 years who self-identified as Hispanic/Latinos. Participants (n = 16,415) enrolled from March 2008 to June 2011. We describe the prevalence of minor and major ECG abnormalities and examined their cross-sectional associations with cardiovascular disease and risk factors. The Minnesota code criteria were used to define minor and major ECG abnormalities. Previous cardiovascular disease and risk factors were based on data obtained at baseline examination. Significant differences in prevalent ECG findings were found between men and women. Major ECG abnormalities were present in 9.2% (95% confidence interval 8.3 to 10.1) of men and 6.6% (95% confidence interval 5.8 to 7.3) of women (p <0.0001). The odds of having major ECG abnormalities significantly increased with age, presence of ≥3 cardiovascular risk factors, and prevalent cardiovascular disease, in both men and women. Significant differences in major ECG abnormalities were found among the varying groups; Puerto Ricans and Dominicans had more major abnormalities compared with Mexican men and women. In conclusion, in a large cohort of Hispanic/Latino men and women, prevalence of major abnormalities was low, yet strong associations of major ECG abnormalities with cardiovascular disease and risk factors were observed in both men and women.

Low diastolic blood pressure was one of the independent predictors of ischemia-like findings of electrocardiogram in patients who underwent coronary angiography

BACKGROUND

The underlying cause of a high cardiovascular event rate in the population with low diastolic blood pressure (DBP) has not been fully elucidated.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The relationship between DBP and ischemia-like findings on electrocardiography (ECG) was investigated in 187 patients who underwent coronary angiography. Patients with conditions affecting ECG (e.g. patients taking digitalis or those with old myocardial infarction, complete right bundle branch block, or hypokalemia) were excluded from the analyses. Ischemia-like ECG was defined as having one or more of the following: borderline Q wave [Minnesota code (MC) I 3], ST depression (MC IV 1-3), negative T wave (MC V 1-3), and complete left bundle branch block (MC VII 1). Based on this definition, 70 of 187 patients (37%) had ischemia-like ECG. Compared with the group without it, the group with ischemia-like ECG included more females (p<0.01), and had lower values of body mass index (p = 0.01), DBP (p<0.01), estimated glomerular filtration rate (p<0.01), left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF; p<0.01), and higher values of age (p<0.01) and left ventricular mass index (LVMI; p<0.01). The severity of coronary artery disease did not differ between the groups. Receiver operating characteristics curve analysis revealed that 74.5 mmHg was the optimal cut-off point of DBP to predict ischemia-like ECG (area under curve, 0.63; 95% confidence interval, 0.55-0.71, p = 0.003). There were no significant relationships between systolic blood pressure and ischemia-like ECG. A multivariate analysis showed that female sex, low DBP (≤ 74.5 mmHg), LVMI, and LVEF were the significant factors for the ischemia-like ECG. The odds ratio of low DBP was 2.53 (95% confidence interval, 1.19-5.40; p = 0.02).

CONCLUSIONS

Low DBP was one of the significant predictors of the ischemia-like ECG in the present study. Myocardial ischemia may be a part of the cause of high cardiovascular morbidity in the population with low DBP.

The Moli-sani project: computerized ECG database in a population-based cohort study

Computerized electrocardiogram (ECG) acquisition and interpretation may be extremely useful in handling analysis of data from large cohort studies and exploit research on the use of ECG data as prognostic markers for cardiovascular disease. The Moli-sani project (http://www.moli-sani.org) is a population-based cohort study aiming at evaluating the risk factors linked to chronic-degenerative disease with particular regard to cardiovascular disease and cancer and intermediate metabolic phenotypes such as hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidemia, obesity, and metabolic syndrome. Between March 2005 and April 2010, 24 325 people aged 35 years or older, living in the Molise region (Italy), were randomly recruited. A follow-up based on linkage with hospital discharge records and mortality regional registry and reexamination of the cohort is ongoing and will be repeated at prefixed times. Each subject was administered questionnaires on personal and medical history, food consumption, quality of life (FS36), and psychometry. Plasma serum, cellular pellet, and urinary spots were stored in liquid nitrogen. Subjects were measured blood pressure, weight, height, and waist and hip circumferences, and underwent spirometry to evaluate pulmonary diffusion capacity, gas diffusion, and pulmonary volumes. Standard 12-lead resting ECG was performed by a Cardiette ar2100-view electrocardiograph and tracings stored in digital standard communication protocol format for subsequent analysis. The digital ECG database of the Moli-sani project is currently being used to assess the association between physiologic variables and pathophyiosiologic conditions and parameters derived from the ECG signal. This computerized ECG database represents a unique opportunity to identify and assess prognostic factors associated with cardiovascular and metabolic diseases.

Preoperative evaluation of the surgical patient

A thorough preoperative evaluation to identify correctable medical abnormalities and understand the residual risk is mandatory for all patients undergoing any surgical procedure, including oral surgery. Routine preoperative evaluation will vary among patients, depending on age and general health. This article addresses the preoperative evaluation of surgical patients in general, and the evaluation for general anesthesia in the operating room.

Evaluation of patients with suspected coronary artery disease

Coronary artery disease affects millions of Americans and is a major cause of global morbidity and mortality. Detection and optimal treatment strategies are needed to reduce the clinical and economic burden of this disease. Chest pain history, risk factor profile, and noninvasive stress test results are used for clinical risk stratification. In high-risk patients, coronary angiography is the standard for anatomic diagnosis and additional risk stratification. All patients with coronary artery disease should be treated with optimal medical therapy. Patients with uncontrolled symptoms or high risk for adverse outcomes benefit from coronary artery revascularization with percutaneous coronary intervention or coronary artery bypass graft surgery.

Variable association between components of the metabolic syndrome and electrocardiographic abnormalities in Korean adults

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Resting electrocardiogram (ECG) abnormalities have been strongly associated with cardiovascular disease mortality. Little is known, however, about the association between individual components of metabolic syndrome and ECG abnormalities, especially in Asian populations.

METHODS

We examined clinical and laboratory data from 31,399 subjects (age 20 to 89 years) who underwent medical check-ups. ECG abnormalities were divided into minor and major abnormalities based on Novacode criteria. Ischemic ECG findings were separately identified and analyzed.

RESULTS

The overall prevalence rates of ECG abnormalities were significantly higher in subjects with than in those without metabolic syndrome (p < 0.01). Ischemic ECG was strongly associated with metabolic syndrome in all age groups of both sexes, except for younger women. In multiple logistic regression analysis, metabolic syndrome was independently associated with ischemic ECG (odds ratio, 2.30 [2.04 to 2.62]; p < 0.01), after adjusting for sex, age, smoking, and family history of cardiovascular disease. Of the metabolic syndrome components, hyperglycemia in younger subjects and hypertension in elderly subjects were major factors for ischemic ECG changes, whereas hypertriglyceridemia was not an independent risk factor in any age group. The association between ischemic ECG findings and central obesity was weaker in women than in men.

CONCLUSIONS

Metabolic syndrome was strongly associated with ECG abnormalities, especially ischemic ECG findings, in Koreans. The association between each component of metabolic syndrome and ECG abnormalities varied according to age and sex.

Quantitative electrocardiographic measures and long-term mortality in exercise test patients with clinically normal resting electrocardiograms

BACKGROUND

Currently, the only function of the resting electrocardiogram (ECG) in patients referred for exercise testing is to determine whether imaging is mandated. It is unknown if subtle ECG findings in those patients with clinically normal resting ECGs have prognostic significance.

METHODS

We performed a single-center cohort study of 18,964 patients without known cardiovascular disease who had a clinically normal resting ECG and who underwent treadmill exercise testing for evaluation of suspected coronary artery disease. Eleven quantitative ECG measures relating to heart rate, conduction, left ventricular mass, or repolarization were collected digitally. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. The prognostic importance of a composite ECG score was assessed by measuring its impact on the c-index (analogous to area under receiver operating characteristic curve) and by measures of reclassification.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 10.7 years, 1,585 patients died. The 4 most predictive digital ECG variables were higher ventricular rate, more leftward QRS axis, more downward ST-segment deviation, and longer QT interval. The ECG score was independently associated with mortality (75th vs 25th percentile hazard ratio 1.36, 95% confidence interval 1.25-1.49, P < .0001). The ECG score had modest impact on discrimination (change in c-index 0.04) and reclassification of risk (3.0% decrease of relative integrated discrimination improvement, P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

Subtle ECG findings relating to heart rate, conduction, left ventricular mass, or repolarization in patients with clinically normal ECGs referred for exercise testing may provide modest additional prognostic information over and above clinical and exercise measures.

Persistent ischaemic ECG abnormalities on repeated ECG examination have important prognostic value for cardiovascular disease beyond established risk factors: a population-based study in middle-aged men with up to 32 years of follow-up

OBJECTIVE

To determine the effect of new, persistent or reverted ischaemic ECG abnormalities at ages 50 and 70 years on the risk of subsequent cardiovascular disease.

DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

A prospective community-based observational cohort of 50-year-old men in Sweden, followed for 32 years. 2322 men of age 50 years participated in 1970-3, and 1221 subjects were re-examined at the age of 70 years.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Myocardial infarction (MI), cardiovascular mortality and overall mortality.

RESULTS

At 50 years of age, after adjusting for established conventional risk factors, T wave abnormalities, ST segment depression, major Q/QS pattern and ECG-left ventricular hypertrophy were all found to be independent risk factors for the main outcome measures during the 32 years of follow-up. When ECG variables were re-measured at 70 years of age, they were still found to be independent risk factors for the mortality outcomes, but lost in significance for prediction of MI. Regarding mortality, it was twice as dangerous to have persistent T wave abnormalities (HR 4.63; 95% CI 2.18 to 9.83) or ST segment depression (HR 5.66; 95% CI 1.77 to 18.1), as with new T wave abnormalities (HR 2.20; 95% CI 1.48 to 3.29) or ST segment depression (HR 2.55; 95% CI 1.74 to 3.75), developing between ages 50 and 70 years. The addition of "ECG indicating ischaemia" significantly increased the predictive power of the Framingham score (p<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

It is worthwhile to obtain serial ECGs for proper risk assessment, since persistent ST-T abnormalities carried twice as high a risk for future mortality compared with new or reverted abnormalities.

Left ventricular hypertrophy, subclinical atherosclerosis, and inflammation

To elucidate mechanisms by which left ventricular (LV) hypertrophy (LVH) increases the risk of atherosclerotic heart disease, we sought to determine whether LVH is independently associated with coronary artery calcium (CAC) and serum C-reactive protein (CRP) levels in the general population. The Dallas Heart Study is a population-based sample in which 2633 individuals underwent cardiac MRI to measure LV structure, electron beam CT to measure CAC, and measurement of plasma CRP. We used univariate and multivariable analyses to determine whether LV mass and markers of concentric LV hypertrophy or dilation were associated with CAC and CRP. Increasing quartiles of LV mass indexed to fat-free mass, LV wall thickness, and concentricity, but not LV volume, were associated with CAC in both men and women (P<0.001). After adjustment for traditional cardiovascular risk factors and statin use, LV wall thickness and concentricity remained associated with CAC in linear regression (P<0.001 for each). These associations were particularly robust in blacks. LV wall thickness and concentricity were also associated with elevated CRP levels (P=0.001 for both) in gender-stratified univariate analyses, although these associations did not persist in multivariable analysis. In conclusion, concentric LVH is an independent risk factor for subclinical atherosclerosis. LVH is also associated with an inflammatory state as reflected in elevated CRP levels, although this relationship appears to be mediated by comorbid conditions. These data likely explain in part why individuals with LVH are at increased risk for myocardial infarction.

Impact of follow-up time and re-measurement of the electrocardiogram and conventional cardiovascular risk factors on their predictive value for myocardial infarction

OBJECTIVE

To explore if the predictive power of mid-life electrocardiogram (ECG) abnormalities and conventional cardiovascular risk factors for future myocardial infarction, change over a 30-year follow-up period and if repeated examination improves their predictive power.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Longitudinal population-based study.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 2322 men aged 50 years, with a total follow-up period of 30 years and 1221 subjects were re-examined at age of 70 years.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Risk for fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction (n = 470) analysed at age 50 and 70 years, and separately for 1-10, 11-20 and 21-30 years after first examination. Investigations included a 12-lead ECG, blood pressure, body mass index, smoking habits, and glucose and lipid variables.

RESULTS

Whilst high blood pressure and dyslipidaemia variables, such as apolipoprotein B/apolipoprotein A1 ratio, measured at age 50 showed an almost unchanged predictive power during the three decades of follow up, ECG abnormalities, insulin and BMI were only significant predictors during the two first decades of follow up. Despite increased prevalences of ECG abnormalities and obesity with age, they predicted for future myocardial infarction in midlife only whilst fasting insulin and smoking regained their predictive power when re-measured at age 70.

CONCLUSION

Whilst hypertension and dyslipidaemia were consistent as risk factors, length of follow-up period and age at baseline investigations affected the predictive power of ECG abnormalities, fasting insulin, BMI and smoking. In the elderly, ECG abnormalities did not contribute to the prediction of myocardial infarction but smoking and fasting insulin may be important in the pathophysiology leading to MI especially in this age group.

Blockade of the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system: a key therapeutic strategy to reduce renal and cardiovascular events in patients with diabetes

Diabetes (particularly type 2 diabetes) represents a global health problem of epidemic proportions. Individuals with diabetes are not only more likely to develop hypertension, dyslipidemia, and obesity, but are also at a significantly higher risk for coronary heart disease, peripheral vascular disease, and stroke. Angiotensin II plays a key pathophysiological role in the progression of diabetic renal disease, and blockade of the renin-angiotensin system with angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEi) or angiotensin II antagonists has therefore become an important therapeutic strategy to reduce renal and cardiovascular events in patients with diabetes. Several studies have demonstrated the effects of angiotensin II antagonists on the reduction of albuminuria and the progression of renal disease from microalbuminuria to macroalbuminuria. More importantly, several endpoint trials have shown that the antiproteinuric effects of losartan and irbesartan translate into cardiovascular and renoprotective benefits beyond blood pressure lowering, thereby delaying the need for dialysis or kidney transplantation by several years. These and other studies indicate that angiotensin II antagonists not only improve survival and quality of life of patients with diabetic nephropathy, but also have the potential to reduce the substantial healthcare burden associated with managing these patients. ACEi also appear to exert similar beneficial effects in diabetic patients, but whether clinically significant differences in renoprotection or mortality exist between angiotensin II antagonists and ACEi in patients with type 2 diabetes remains to be fully investigated in appropriate head-to-head studies.

Metabolic syndrome and risk of isolated ST-T abnormalities and type 2 diabetes in Japanese male office workers

Using a modified National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) definition of the metabolic syndrome (MS) with body mass index instead of waist circumference, we examined the associations of the MS with the risk of developing ST-T abnormalities in 3405 Japanese men aged 35-59 yr who did not have a history of cardiovascular disease or ST-T abnormalities. Of 3405 participants, 3166 men without type 2 diabetes (as diagnosed with the revised criteria of American Diabetes Association) also constituted a non-diabetic cohort. Examinations including electrocardiogram and fasting plasma glucose were repeated annually for 7 subsequent years. The subjects were classified as having ST-T abnormalities or type 2 diabetes when evidence of either of these disorders was found during at least 2 consecutive annual examinations. After adjustment for potential risk factors, the relative risks of ST-T abnormalities were 1.0 (referent), 2.66, 3.07, 4.27, and 8.40 for the presence of 0, 1, 2, 3, and > or =24 components of the MS, respectively (P for trend <0.001). The corresponding results for the risk of type 2 diabetes were 1.0 (referent), 3.49, 7.45, 15.00, and 24.04 (P for trend <0.001). The estimated incident rates for men in the low-WBC count (<7.3 x 10(9) cells/L)/no MS, high-WBC count (> or =7.3 x 10(9) cells/L)/no MS, low-WBC count/yes MS, and high-WBC count/yes MS were 3.4%, 4.6%, 7.4%, and 13.1% for ST-T abnormalities, respectively and were 3.6%, 7.1%, 18.0%, and 27.2% for type 2 diabetes, respectively. The respective multivariate-adjusted relative risks were 1.0 (referent), 1.26, 2.07, and 3.45 for ST-T abnormalities and were 1.0 (referent), 1.75, 5.14, and 6.90 for type 2 diabetes. A modified NCEP MS definition predicts ST-T abnormalities and type 2 diabetes. WBC count adds clinically important information to new-onset ST-T abnormalities and type 2 diabetes.

Sex-differences in prevalence of electrocardiographic left ventricular hypertrophy in Type 2 diabetes: the Casale Monferrato Study

AIMS Although left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) defined by either standard 12-lead ECG or echocardiography strongly predicts cardiovascular mortality, its prevalence in Type 2 diabetes is largely unknown. We have assessed prevalence of ECG-LVH and its relationship with clinical and metabolic variables in an Italian population-based cohort of subjects with Type 2 diabetes. METHODS The study-base was 965 (61.3%) subjects with Type 2 diabetes of the population-based cohort living in Casale Monferrato (Italy). LVH was defined by ECG Cornell voltage-duration product. All measurements were centralized. RESULTS ECG-LVH was diagnosed in 165/965 subjects, giving a prevalence of 17.1% (95% CI 14.7-19.5). Large sex differences were found, with higher prevalence in women (23.5%, 19.9-27.0) than in men (8.4%, 5.6-11.0), even after adjustment for age, BMI and hypertension (OR 3.83, 95% CI 2.5-5.9). At the examination, subjects with ECG-LVH were older than those without it. Similar age- and sex-adjusted values of HbA(1c), plasma lipids, fibrinogen, uric acid and creatinine were found in the two subgroups. No differences in prevalence of hypertension, CHD, increased QT duration or dispersion, micro- and macro-albuminuria were found between subjects with ECG-LVH and those without it. In logistic regression analysis, variables independently associated with ECG-LVH, after age-adjustment, were sex and diastolic blood pressure.

CONCLUSIONS

This population-based study shows: (i) a high prevalence of ECG-LVH in Type 2 diabetic subjects; (ii) 3-fold higher risk in women than in men, independently of age, BMI, and blood pressure; (iii) an independent association between ECG-LVH and diastolic blood-pressure. Screening for ECG-LVH in diabetic subjects is therefore recommended, particularly in diabetic women.

Relationship Between Electrocardiographic Abnormalities and Periodontal Disease: The Hisayama Study

BACKGROUND

Recent studies have suggested a relationship between periodontitis and cardiovascular disease (CVD). This study investigated the relationship between periodontitis and electrocardiographic (ECG) abnormalities, which are known predictors of CVD.

METHODS

We examined the periodontal status of 1,111 residents of Hisayama Town, Fukuoka, Japan. Nine hundred fifty-seven (957) subjects (374 males, 583 females) with > or = 10 teeth and without a medical history of CVD were included in the analysis. Probing depth (PD) and clinical attachment level (CAL) were measured on two randomly selected quadrants, one maxillary and one mandibular. A 12-lead ECG was recorded using a standard electrocardiograph. ECG abnormalities included left ventricular hypertrophy (Minnesota code 3-1) and ST depression (4-1, 2, 3). The relation of periodontal condition and ECG abnormalities was assessed with logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

Univariate analysis revealed that mean probing depth, mean attachment loss, number of teeth, and plaque index were significantly associated with ECG abnormalities, as well as with known risk factors of CVD. In multivariate analysis, the subjects with deep pockets (mean probing depth > or = 2 mm) had an increased risk for ECG abnormalities (odds ratio [OR] = 1.6; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.01 to 2.50) compared to the subjects with mean PD < 2 mm. Subjects with severe attachment loss (mean CAL > or = 2.5 mm) had also significant risk for ECG abnormalities (OR = 1.7; 95% CI = 1.07 to 2.67) compared to those whose mean CAL was < 2.5 mm.

CONCLUSION

This study clearly shows the relationship between periodontitis and ECG abnormalities, which are important predictors of CVD.

Mortality and predictors of mortality in a cohort of Brazilian type 2 diabetic patients

OBJECTIVE

To investigate mortality rates and predictors of mortality in Brazilian type 2 diabetic patients.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

A prospective follow-up study was carried out with 471 type 2 diabetic outpatients. Primary end points were all-cause, diabetes-related, and cardiovascular deaths. Excess mortality in this cohort was evaluated by calculating standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) in relation to those of the Rio de Janeiro population. Predictors of mortality were assessed by Kaplan-Meier survival curves and by uni- and multivariate Cox survival analyses.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 57 months (range 2-84 months), 121 (25.7%) patients died, 91 (75.2%) from diabetes-related causes and 44 (36.4%) from cardiovascular diseases. After adjusting for age and sex, the all-cause SMR was 3.36 (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.81-4.02) and the cardiovascular SMR was 3.28 (CI 2.44-4.41). In the Cox multivariate analysis, the predictors of mortality were older age, increased 24-h proteinuria, preexisting vascular disease, presence of frequent ventricular premature contractions and prolonged maximum heart rate-corrected QT interval on baseline electrocardiogram, and decreased serum HDL cholesterol. The use of beta-blockers was a protective factor. In Kaplan-Meier curves, these variables were capable of distinguishing subgroups of patients with significantly different prognoses.

CONCLUSIONS

Brazilian type 2 diabetic patients had a more than threefold excess mortality than the general population, largely because of increased cardiovascular mortality risk. Several clinical, laboratory, and electrocardiographic predictors of mortality were identified that could possibly be modified to decrease the mortality burden of type 2 diabetes in Brazil.

Prognostic significance of isolated, non-specific left ventricular repolarization abnormalities in hypertension

OBJECTIVE

Clinicians are often confronted with the incidental finding of isolated minor, non-specific repolarization changes on the electrocardiogram (ECG) in hypertensive patients. The aim of this study was to investigate the prognostic significance of such changes.

DESIGN

Prospective, observational study.

METHODS

A total of 1970 hypertensive patients without prevalent cardiovascular disease were followed for up to 9.1 years (mean 4.7 years). Patients with ECG abnormalities including ischaemia, previous infarction, bundle branch block, atrial fibrillation and ventricular pre-excitation were excluded. Patients were divided into three groups: normal left ventricular (LV) repolarization (n = 1355); minor repolarization changes (n = 504); and typical LV strain (n = 111).

RESULTS

During follow-up, 78 patients developed new-onset ischaemic heart disease. The event rates were 0.50, 1.28 and 3.08 per 100 patient-years in the groups with normal repolarization, minor changes, and typical LV strain, respectively (P < 0.001). After adjustment for the effect of age, sex, diabetes, serum cholesterol, smoking, LV hypertrophy and 24-h pulse pressure, the risk for developing coronary events was higher in patients with minor repolarization changes (hazard ratio 2.07, 95% confidence interval 1.23-3.47; P < 0.01) or LV strain (hazard ratio 4.00, 95% confidence interval 2.09-7.65; P < 0.001) than in patients with normal repolarization (reference category). Population-attributable risks were 21 and 14%, respectively. Minor ST-T changes also retained an adverse prognostic value among patients without LV hypertrophy (hazard ratio 1.90, 95% confidence interval 1.08-3.33; P = 0.026).

CONCLUSION

We have identified minor, non-specific LV repolarization changes as a novel, independent risk factor for ischaemic heart disease in patients with uncomplicated hypertension.

A new Q/QS pattern on the resting electrocardiogram is associated with impaired insulin secretion and a poor prognosis in elderly men independently of history of myocardial infarction

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate risk factors and prognosis of subjects who had developed a new Q/QS pattern on the resting electrocardiogram (ECG) in relation to history of myocardial infarction (MI).

DESIGN

Cross-sectional and prospective population-based cohort study.

SETTING

Uppsala, Sweden.

SUBJECTS

In 1970-73, all 50-year-old men in Uppsala, were invited to participate in a health survey aimed at identifying risk factors for cardiovascular disease. The present study included the 1221 subjects who also were re-examined at age 70.

RESULTS

Subjects with a new Q/QS pattern on the resting ECG at age 70 were characterized by impaired insulin secretion compared with those without Q/QS, and a higher prevalence of diabetes compared with the control group. In Cox proportional hazard analysis a new Q/QS pattern at age 70 was a significant predictor of cardiovascular mortality (hazard ratio : 1.67, 95% CI: 1.22-2.26) and total mortality (hazard ratio: 1.31, 95% CI: 1.04-1.62) (after age 70) during 9.4 years follow-up, also when adjusted for other risk factors and MI diagnosis.

CONCLUSION

The finding of a new Q/QS pattern on the resting ECG, regardless of history of MI was associated with impaired insulin secretion and was an independent predictor of total and cardiovascular mortality. Therefore, these subjects must be given a high priority to preventive measures against both coronary heart disease and diabetes.

Relationship of electrocardiographic left ventricular hypertrophy to mortality and cardiovascular morbidity in high-risk patients

BACKGROUND

The prognostic significance of left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) identified by simple electrocardiographic (ECG) criteria in high-risk patients with established cardiovascular (CV) diseases is not clearly understood.

DESIGN AND METHODS

The Heart Outcomes Prevention Evaluation (HOPE) trial was a randomized trial, which evaluated the effects of ramipril and of vitamin E on major CV outcomes in 9541 men and women aged 55 years or older with a history of coronary artery disease, stroke, peripheral vascular disease or diabetes mellitus with at least one additional CV risk factor. Patients were followed for an average of 4.5 years. We evaluated the association between simple ECG criteria for LVH and the risk for major vascular events, for CV and all-cause mortality and for heart failure.

RESULTS

Electrocardiographic LVH was present in 793 (8.3%) HOPE study participants. Of these, 19.0% sustained a major CV event (MI, stroke or CV death), 15.6% died and 6.1% developed heart failure compared with 15.6%, 10.8% and 2.9% respectively of those without ECG-LVH (P = 0.0023; P < 0.0001 and P < 0.0001). In multivariate analysis ECG-LVH was an independent predictor of CV and all-cause death and of heart failure.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with CV disease simple, easily applicable ECG criteria for LVH identify a subset of individuals at particularly high risk for death and for heart failure.

Age-related changes in risk factor effects on the incidence of thromboembolic and hemorrhagic stroke

We examined the changes in risk factor effects on the incidence of thromboembolic and hemorrhagic stroke as they may occur with age. Findings were based on repeated risk factor measurements at four examinations over a 26-year period in 7589 men in the Honolulu Heart Program. After each examination, 6 years of follow-up were available to assess risk factor effects on the incidence of stroke over a broad range of ages (45-93 years). As compared with normotensive men, the risk of thromboembolic stroke in the presence of hypertension declined from a 7-fold excess in men aged 45 to 54 years to a 1.4-fold excess in men aged > or =75 (P<.001). Adverse effects of diabetes and atrial fibrillation seemed to be equally important across all ages, whereas a protective effect of physical activity increased with age. Except for men with atrial fibrillation, the incidence of thromboembolic stroke increased significantly with age regardless of risk factor status, including men with normal blood pressure (P<.001). Although hemorrhagic events were less common, positive relations with cigarette smoking seemed to strengthen with age, whereas those with hypertension tended to decline. Our findings suggest that strategies for the prevention of stroke may need to account for changes in risk factor effects as they occur with age. Control of diabetes and the encouragement of active lifestyles in the elderly seem to be especially important.

Impact of minor electrocardiographic ST-segment and/or T-wave abnormalities on cardiovascular mortality during long-term follow-up

Minor ST-T abnormalities are common on the resting electrocardiogram of otherwise healthy persons, but the long-term importance of these findings has not been extensively evaluated, especially in women. In a prospective study, 7,985 women and 9,630 men (aged 40 to 64 years at baseline) without other electrocardiographic abnormalities and free of previous coronary heart disease (CHD) were studied using Cox regression for 22-years of follow-up. Primary outcomes were death from CHD and total cardiovascular disease (CVD); total mortality was a secondary outcome. Minnesota Code was employed to assess the presence or absence of electrocardiographic abnormalities. Analyses compared persons with minor Minnesota Code ST-segment (codes 4-3 or 4-4) or T-wave findings (codes 5-3 or 5-4) to those with normal electrocardiographic findings. In combined analyses of men and women adjusted for age, isolated minor T-wave abnormality, minor ST-segment depression, or a combination of minor ST-segment and T-wave abnormalities were each associated with increased mortality risks. For CHD mortality, hazard ratios (HRs) ranged from 1.60 to 2.10; for CVD mortality, HRs ranged from 1.50 to 1.95; and for total mortality, HRs ranged from 1.31 to 1.50 (p <0.05 for all HRs). In separate analyses by gender adjusted for age, increased risks were observed for combined ST-T-wave abnormalities in both genders for CHD and CVD mortality (HR 1.72 to 1.75 for men, p <0.05; HR 2.07 to 2.51 for women, p <0.001). These data indicate that nonspecific (minor) ST-segment depression and/or T-wave abnormalities have a long-term prognostic impact for CHD and CVD death in middle-aged women and men and can be considered markers of heightened CHD and CVD risk.

Microalbuminuria modifies the mortality risk associated with electrocardiographic ST-T segment changes

OBJECTIVES

We sought to investigate whether microalbuminuria, a proposed marker of generalized vascular damage, enhances the prognostic value of ST-T segment changes for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in the general population.

BACKGROUND

ST-T segment changes on the rest electrocardiogram (ECG) predict mortality in the general population. However, the excess risk seems to be low, particularly in nonhospitalized populations with a low cardiovascular risk profile.

METHODS

In a population of 7,330 male and female subjects, a total of 89 deaths (1.2%) occurred during a median three-year follow-up. In 69 of these, the cause of death was obtained from the Central Bureau of Statistics: 25 subjects died of cardiovascular causes (36%). Using computerized Minnesota coding, ST-T segment changes were coded as 4.1-4 and 5.1-4. Microalbuminuria was defined as a urinary albumin excretion of 30 to 300 mg per 24 h.

RESULTS

The combination of ST-T segment changes and microalbuminuria showed a higher hazard ratio (HR) for all-cause mortality (HR 8.6 [95% confidence interval [CI] 4.8 to 15.2, p < 0.0001), as compared with ST-T segment changes in the absence of microalbuminuria (HR 1.3 [95% CI 0.7 to 2.5]), which was independent of other cardiovascular risk factors (HR 3.3 [95% CI 1.5 to 7.1], p = 0.002). The combination showed a higher HR when only cardiovascular deaths were taken into account, as compared with all-cause mortality (HR 24.5 [95% CI 7.9 to 76.0], p < 0.0001), which also counted for ST-T segment changes alone (HR 4.4 [95% CI 1.4 to 14.5], p = 0.02). After controlling for other risk factors, the HRs were 10.4 (95% CI 2.5 to 43.6, p = 0.001) for the combination and 2.7 (95% CI 0.6 to 12.3) for ST-T segment changes alone.

CONCLUSIONS

This study suggests that, in subjects with ST-T segment changes on their rest ECG, microalbuminuria could identify those at increased risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality.

C-reactive protein and myocardial infarction

C-reactive protein (CRP) has been shown to predict cardiovascular disease. Whether predictions differ across risk factor strata and for short and long-term follow-up has not been clearly examined. The purpose of this report is to assess the relation between CRP and the development of myocardial infarction (MI) over a 20-year period in men in the Honolulu Heart Program. Subjects were aged 48 to 70 years and free of prevalent disease at the time when CRP levels were measured and follow-up began. Using a case-control design, 369 cases of MI were compared with 1,348 control subjects. After risk factor adjustment, the odds of an MI rose with increasing levels of CRP as early as 5 years into follow-up (P = 0.009). Associations appeared to persist beyond this time, but after 15 years, effects became modest. Adverse effects of an elevated CRP level were observed in middle-aged men (< or =55 years), in men without hypertension or diabetes, and in those who were nonsmokers (P < 0.05). Although positive effects were also observed in those who were hypertensive and smoking at the time of CRP measurement, findings suggest that in clinically healthy men, atherosclerosis could have origins more closely linked with inflammation than with other processes.

Age-related changes in risk factor effects on the incidence of coronary heart disease

PURPOSE

The purpose of this report is to examine the potential for risk factor effects on the incidence of CHD to change over a broad range of ages from middle adulthood to late-life.

METHODS

Findings are based on repeated risk factor measurements at four examinations over a 26-year period in men enrolled in the Honolulu Heart Program. After each examination, six years of follow-up were available to assess risk factor effects as the cohort aged from 45 to 93 years.

RESULTS

Based on 18,456 person intervals of follow-up, 677 men developed CHD (3.7%). After risk factor adjustment, a positive relation between hypertension and CHD declined significantly with age (p = 0.013), primarily due to a large increase in the risk of CHD in elderly men (75 to 93) without hypertension. Effects of total cholesterol on CHD also seemed to decline with advancing age, although changes were not statistically significant. In contrast, men with diabetes had a consistent 2-fold excess risk of CHD across all age groups, while a positive association with body mass index in younger men (45 to 54) became negative in those who were the oldest (75 to 93). Due to infrequent smoking in the elderly, associations between smoking and CHD weakened with age. In the oldest men (75 to 93), alcohol intake was unrelated to CHD, while effects of sedentary life-styles on promoting CHD appeared stronger than in those who were younger.

CONCLUSION

Findings suggest that changes in risk factor effects on the incidence of CHD with advancing age may require updated strategies for CHD prevention as aging occurs.

Leg edema, ST-T abnormalities, and high BNP values are important signs of heart failure in the elderly

This study was aimed at the mechanism of the circulatory failure characteristic of the elderly through elucidating the cause of leg edema frequently found in patients under treatment in health care facilities for physical or mental handicaps. ECG and measurement of atrial (ANP) and brain (BNP) natriuretic peptides were carried out on 156 patients (mostly females aged 84 years on average) and echocardiographic assessment was done on 44 patients. Non-specific ST-T abnormalities were frequently found in patients with moderate or severe leg edema (61 vs. 37% in those with slight or no edema). BNP levels were markedly increased in patients with either leg edema or ECG abnormalities (Group B) and with both (Group C) compared with those without either (Group A), with averages of 35.5+/-23.9, 91.3+/-80.1, and 184.3+/-139.0 pg/ml, respectively, for Group A, B, and C. UCG examination revealed marked regurgitation of cardiac valves, more frequently in patients with BNP over 50 pg/ml than in those with less (14/24 vs. 2/20), with a difference in extent of 5.7 versus 1.6 on an arbitrary scale. In addition to left ventricular hypertrophy, dilatation of the left atrium and inferior vena cava was frequently observed in patients with higher BNP levels. It is concluded that both cardiac valve regurgitation and myocardial damage represented by ST-T abnormalities on ECG result in heart failure characteristic of the elderly, and that an increase in BNP is an important sign of such heart failure.

An evidence-based review of the resting electrocardiogram as a screening technique for heart disease

Given renewed interest in the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease, we comprehensively reviewed the utility of the electrocardiogram (ECG) for screening considering the seminal epidemiologic studies. It appears that conventional risk factors relate to long-term risk, while ECG abnormalities are better predictors of short-term risk. For individual ECG abnormalities as well as for pooled categories of ECG abnormalities, the sensitivity of the ECG for future events was too low for it to be practical as a screening tool. This almost certainly relates to the low prevalence of these abnormalities. However, all ECG abnormalities increase with age and pre-test risk. Also screening with the ECG is of minimal cost and likely to decrease further as stand-alone machines are replaced by integration into personal computers (PC). Another potential impact on performing screening ECGs would be distribution and availability of digitized ECG data via the World Wide Web. For clinical utility of ECG data, comparison with previous ECGs can be critical but is currently limited. PC based ECG systems could very easily replace many of the ECG machines in use that only have paper output. PC-ECG systems would also permit interaction with computerized medical information systems, facilitate emailing and faxing of ECGs as well as storage at a centralized web-server. Web-enabled ECG recorders similar to the new generation of home appliances could follow this quick PC solution. A serious goal for the medical industry should be to end the morass of proprietary ECG digital formats and follow a standardized format. This could lead to a network of web-servers from which every patient's ECGs would be available. Such a situation could have a dramatic effect on the advisability of performing screening ECGs.

Informational contribution of noninvasive screening tests for coronary artery disease in patients on chronic renal replacement therapy

The prevalence of coronary artery disease (CAD) is high in patients on renal replacement therapy; therefore, reliable noninvasive screening tests are needed. We retrospectively determined the sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative likelihood ratios (LRs) for a history of chest pain, resting and exercise electrocardiography (ECG), thallium dipyridamole scintigraphy, and echocardiography in 42 patients undergoing chronic hemodialysis and 42 patients after renal transplantation who also underwent coronary angiography. In addition, the prognostic power of each test for the occurrence of a cardiovascular event after angiography (therapeutic intervention, myocardial infarction, or cardiovascular death) was evaluated during a follow-up of 37 months. Forty-three patients had significant CAD on angiography. Angina pectoris had a sensitivity of 65% and specificity of 66%, corresponding to a positive LR of 1.9 and a negative LR of 0.5. A variable number of patients underwent noninvasive tests before angiography. Results were similar in patients undergoing hemodialysis and after renal transplantation and in patients with or without angina pectoris. Exercise ECG could not be performed in the majority of patients, and resting ECG (sensitivity, 67%; specificity, 52%; corresponding to a positive LR of 1.4 and negative LR of 0.6) and scintigraphy (sensitivity, 80%; specificity, 37%; positive LR, 1.3; negative LR, 0.5) in patients on renal replacement therapy were not useful for the diagnosis of CAD. Angina also markedly increased the relative odds for the occurrence of a cardiovascular event during follow-up (relative odds, 4.6) compared with other noninvasive tests. Angina pectoris had the best informational and prognostic value of noninvasive screening methods, but angiography seems to be the only method to clearly document CAD in patients on renal replacement therapy.

Prevalences of ECG findings in large population based samples of men and women

OBJECTIVE

To obtain accurate estimates of the prevalence of ECG abnormalities in the general population and to describe them in relation to age, sex, and some lifestyle related factors.

DESIGN

The results were obtained from the records of 47 358 men and women participating in four large Belgian epidemiological studies during the past 30 years. All tracings were read and coded by two trained cardiologists on the basis of Minnesota code criteria.

RESULTS

Prevalences of coronary heart disease and abnormal ECG findings rose exponentially with age in both sexes, with the exception of atrioventricular block and the Wolff-Parkinson-White (WPW) syndrome. Major ECG findings were observed in 6.0% of all men and 4.3% of women, resulting in a significant adjusted sex ratio of 1.66 (95% confidence interval 1.46 to 1.88). The prevalence of minor ECG changes was slightly higher among men (10.4% v 9.5% in women). The occurrence of ischaemia-like findings on the ECG was comparable between men and women (9.0% v 9.8%). Independent of age, smoking, obesity, diabetes, employment status, positive history of angina or infarction, and region, there were significantly higher prevalences of Q/QS patterns, left ventricular hypertrophy, left axis deviation, arrhythmias, and atrial fibrillation or flutter in men than in women. Right bundle branch block and WPW syndrome both occurred 3.5 times more often in men, while the prevalence of left bundle branch block was comparable between the sexes.

CONCLUSIONS

The large sample size allowed a precise description of the most important ECG abnormalities. These are not rare in the adult population and most are strongly age related. Sex differences occur with some, but not all, abnormalities. The less common ECG abnormalities were more often observed among men.

Debate: Are surrogate end-point studies worth the effort?

Surrogate end-points of cardiovascular disease can provide useful information in cross-sectional, prospective and interventional studies. They provide information on association with risk factors, natural history and factors associated with disease progression. Because every participant can reach an end-point, sufficient power can be attained with much smaller numbers of subjects in surrogate end-point studies than in studies that use clinical endpoints, so that the costs are likely to be substantially less. Measures of carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) by B-mode ultrasonography and of coronary calcification by electron beam computed tomography (EBCT) appear to be the most promising surrogate end-points.

Trends in the prevalence of hypertension, antihypertensive therapy, and left ventricular hypertrophy from 1950 to 1989

BACKGROUND

Men and women with hypertension are at increased risk for cardiovascular disease, especially when left ventricular hypertrophy is present. We examined temporal trends in the use of antihypertensive medications and studied the relation between their use, the prevalence of high blood pressure, and the presence of electrocardiographic evidence of left ventricular hypertrophy.

METHODS

A total of 10,333 participants in the Framingham Heart Study who were 45 to 74 years of age underwent a total of 51,756 examinations from 1950 to 1989. Data were obtained on blood pressure and the use of antihypertensive medications, and electrocardiograms were assessed for left ventricular hypertrophy. The generalized-estimating-equation method was used to test for trends over time.

RESULTS

From 1950 to 1989, the rate of use of antihypertensive medications increased from 2.3 percent to 24.6 percent among men and from 5.7 percent to 27.7 percent among women. The age-adjusted prevalence of systolic blood pressure of at least 160 mm Hg or diastolic blood pressure of at least 100 mm Hg declined from 18.5 percent to 9.2 percent among men and from 28.0 percent to 7.7 percent among women. This decline was accompanied by age-adjusted reductions in the prevalence of electrocardiographic evidence of left ventricular hypertrophy, from 4.5 percent to 2.5 percent among men and from 3.6 percent to 1.1 percent among women.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings support the notion that the increasing use of antihypertensive medication has resulted in a reduced prevalence of high blood pressure and a concomitant decline in left ventricular hypertrophy in the general population. Our observations may in part explain the considerable decline in mortality from cardiovascular disease observed since the late 1960s.

T-loop morphology as a marker of cardiac events in the elderly

ST-T wave changes of electrocardiographic (ECG) leads have long been recognized as predictors of future cardiac events, but they only imperfectly characterize T-loop morphology. Using vectorcardiographic (VCG) parameters, we investigated the predictive value of T-loop abnormality for fatal and nonfatal cardiac events in a prospective cohort study among 5,815 elderly. Separately, the predictive value of an easily obtainable T-loop parameter, the T axis, was also assessed. Measurements were determined by a computer program, using VCGs reconstructed from the standard 12-lead ECGs. During the 3 to 6 (mean 4) years of follow-up, 166 fatal and 193 nonfatal cardiac events occurred. Subjects with an abnormal T-loop morphology had increased risks for fatal cardiac events (hazard ratio 4.3; 95% CI 3.0-6.4) and nonfatal cardiac events (3.0; 1.9-4.8). Risks associated with an abnormal T axis alone were only slightly lower. Additional adjustment for established cardiovascular risk indicators resulted in lower, but still highly significant risks. Both T-loop and T-axis abnormalities appear to be strong, independent risk indicators of cardiac events in the elderly.

Prognostic value of ECG findings for total, cardiovascular disease, and coronary heart disease death in men and women

OBJECTIVE

To study abnormalities in the resting ECG as independent predictors for all cause, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality in a population based random sample of men and women, and to explore whether their prognostic value is different between sexes.

DESIGN AND SUBJECTS

An age and sex stratified random sample was selected from the total Belgian population aged 25 to 74 years. Baseline data were gathered and resting ECGs were classified according to Minnesota code criteria. The sample was then followed for at least 10 years with respect to cause specific death. Results are based on observations from 5208 men and 4746 women free from prevalent CHD at the start of the follow up period.

RESULTS

Although the prevalence of major abnormalities in general was comparable between sexes, women had more ischaemic findings, ST segment changes, and abnormal T waves on their baseline ECG, while men showed more arrhythmias, bundle branch blocks, and left ventricular hypertrophy. Fitting the multiplicative effect on subsequent mortality between all ECG classifications under study and sex indicated that the prognostic value of ECG changes was equal in women and men. Independently of other risk factors and other major ECG changes, almost all ECG classifications were significantly related to all cause, CVD, and CHD mortality. The most predictive ECG findings for CVD death were ST segment depression (risk ratio (RR) 4.71), major ECG findings (RR 3.26), left ventricular hypertrophy (RR 2.79), bundle branch blocks (RR 2.58), T wave flattening (RR 2.47), ischaemic ECG findings (RR 2.35), and arrhythmias (RR 2.15). The prognostic value of major ECG findings for CVD and CHD death was more powerful than well established cardiovascular risk factors.

CONCLUSIONS

Abnormalities in the baseline ECG are strongly associated with subsequent all cause, CVD, and CHD mortality. Their predictive value was similar for men and women.

Prognostic value of ischemic electrocardiographic findings for cardiovascular mortality in men and women

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to investigate the independent prognostic value of ischemic electrocardiographic (ECG) findings for cardiovascular mortality and to evaluate a possible sex-differential in this regard.

BACKGROUND

In previous reports, ST segment and T wave changes on the resting ECG were described as independent risk factors for development of coronary heart disease. Although more prevalent in women, they are often given less clinical importance than in men.

METHODS

Ten-year follow-up data from the Belgian Interuniversity Research on Nutrition and Health study were used. The results presented here are based on ECGs of the 4,797 men and 4,320 women, aged 25 to 74 years, who were free of angina pectoris at the start of follow-up, had no history of myocardial infarction (MI) and showed no Q wave evidence of an old MI on their ECG.

RESULTS

At baseline, the age-standardized prevalence of an "ischemic ECG" (Minnesota codes I3, IV1-3, V1-3 or VII1) was 8.4% in men and 10.6% in women. Cardiovascular mortality rates in men and women with an ischemic ECG were respectively 7.7 and 2.6 per 1,000 person-years, compared with 2.3 and 1.0 in those with no such ECG findings. After correction for the potential confounding effects of established cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors, the multivariately adjusted risk ratios were 2.45 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.70 to 3.53) for men and 2.16 (95% CI: 1.30 to 3.58) for women. Testing the interaction between an ischemic ECG and sex on CVD mortality revealed that the risk ratios were not significantly changed (p=0.95). The etiologic fraction of CVD deaths attributable to an ischemic ECG was estimated as 19.3% for men and 22.4% for women. Both men and women with major ischemic findings in their baseline electrocardiogram (Minnesota codes IV1,2, V1,2 or VII1) had a fourfold increased risk of CVD death.

CONCLUSION

These results support the hypothesis that women with ischemic ECG findings are at the same increased risk for CVD mortality as men.

T axis as an indicator of risk of cardiac events in elderly people

BACKGROUND

The T axis was postulated to be a general marker of repolarisation abnormality, indicative of subclinical myocardial damage. The aim of this investigation was to assess the prognostic importance of the T axis for fatal and non-fatal cardiac events, in a prospective cohort study of men and women aged 55 years and older.

METHODS

2352 men and 3429 women from the population-based Rotterdam Study took part in the study. Electrocardiograms were done, and T axes were categorised as normal, borderline, or abnormal. Data were analysed with Cox's proportional-hazards models; adjustment for age and sex was done where appropriate.

FINDINGS

During 3-6 (mean 4) years of follow-up of the 5781 participants, 165 (2.9%) fatal and 192 (3.3%) non-fatal cardiac events occurred. Participants with an abnormal T axis (n=609) had an increased risk of cardiac death (hazard ratio 3.9 [95% CI 2.8-5.6]), sudden cardiac death (4.4 [2.6-7.4]), non-fatal cardiac events (2.7 [1.9-3.9]), and combined fatal or non-fatal cardiac events (3.2 [2.5-4.1]); p<0.001 for each. Additional adjustment for established cardiovascular risk factors resulted in lower, but still significant risk for all endpoints. The risk associated with an abnormal T axis was higher than those for any other cardiovascular risk factor. Additional subgroup analyses indicated that the risk of cardiac death was not substantially modified by age, sex, or history of myocardial infarction.

INTERPRETATION

The T axis is a strong and independent risk indicator of fatal and non-fatal cardiac events in the elderly.

Prognosis following acute myocardial infarction in patients with ECG evidence of left ventricular hypertrophy prior to infarction

This study was designed to determine the relationship between prognosis after myocardial infarction (MI) and left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH). Left ventricular hypertrophy diagnosed by electrocardiography according to the criteria of Sokolow and Lyon was noted in 57 of 223 patients (25.6%) on the pre-MI electrocardiogram (ECG), in 11.2% on an early post-MI ECG, and in 11.3% on the discharge ECG. In-hospital and 1-year postdischarge mortalities were significantly greater in patients with LVH noted on pre-MI ECG than in patients without prior LVH. There was no relationship between the presence of LVH on early post-MI ECGs and in-hospital or postdischarge 1-year mortality. Multivariate analysis revealed that evidence of LVH on a pre-MI ECG and acute congestive heart failure were independent predictors of cardiac death within 1 year of MI in patients over 70 years old. It is concluded that in patients over 70 years of age, the presence of LVH on a pre-MI ECG is a reliable predictor of post-MI prognosis.

Major electrocardiographic abnormalities among American Indians aged 45 to 74 years (the Strong Heart Study)

As part of the Strong Heart Study assessment of prevalent cardiovascular disease in middle-aged to elderly American Indians, the prevalence of major Minnesota code electrocardiographic (ECG) abnormalities was assessed in 4,531 participants aged 45 to 74 years (59% women) in selected tribal communities in Arizona, South and North Dakota, and Oklahoma. The overall prevalence of major ECG abnormalities was lowest in Arizona participants, (e.g., definite ECG myocardial infarction in 0.3% vs 1.8% in the other centers), although nearly two thirds of them had diabetes. One or more major ECG abnormality occurred in progressively more women (10.4% to 21.2%) and men (13.3% to 32%) (both p < 0.0001) from 45- to 54- to 55- to 64- and 65- to 74-year age groups, with the latter prevalence rates exceeding those in predominately white age peers in the Cardiovascular Health Study. Diabetes in women, but not in men, and hypertension in both genders showed positive associations with prevalence rates of major ECG abnormalities compatible with coronary artery disease or hypertensive cardiac hypertrophy. Hypercholesterolemia was not associated with ECG abnormalities except for definite myocardial infarction in women. In conclusion, major ECG abnormalities are common in middle-aged to elderly American Indians ,consistent with recent documentation of higher cardiovascular mortality in this population than in similar aged U.S. whites.

Prevalence of coronary heart disease in Kin-Chen, Kinmen

We estimated the prevalence of coronary heart disease (CHD) by the Minnesota code of a 12-lead resting electrocardiogram, Rose chest pain questionnaire and self-reported previous medical history in Kin-Chen, Kinmen (Quemoy), an island under military control for 40 years and the focal point of confrontation between mainland China and Taiwan. Among the target population of 6346 who accounted for all residents aged over 30, 3826 (60.3%) responded with complete data. The prevalence of probable CHD (Minnesota code 1.1-1.2) was 4.1% (71/1732) in men and 4.0% (84/2094) in women, whereas the prevalence of possible CHD (Minnesota code 1.3, 4.1-4.4, 5.1-5.3 and 7.1.1) was significantly higher in women (21.4%) than in men (11.6%). When compared to Chinese populations elsewhere, the increased overall prevalence may suggest a link to long-term stress conditions under military control. We also found the abnormal ECG was associated with many risk factors of CHD, particularly win women. The prevalence of Rose angina and self-reported angina or myocardial infarction was, however, low and associated poorly with any cardiovascular risk factors. Long-term follow-up studies are needed to determine the predictive value of these electrocardiographic abnormalities for cardiovascular disease morbidity and mortality in this population.

Cardiovascular risk factors, ECG abnormalities and quality of life in subjects with atrial fibrillation

In Central European regions epidemiologic findings for atrial fibrillation (AF) in a randomly selected population are not available. Therefore, information obtained by a standardized examination procedure including resting 12 lead ECG of 4003 participants (2014 men, 1989 women), aged 25 to 64 years, of the MONICA-Augsburg Survey 1984/85 were analysed. Reexamination of 3753 subjects took place three years later (Follow-up Study 1987/88). Persons with AF in the baseline survey (n = 13) were compared with an age-and sex-matched control group (n = 156) without AF, chosen from the same population sample, with regard to cardiovascular risk factors, associated disease and disturbances in the subjects' general well-being. In 1984/85 thirteen cases with AF (6 males, 7 females) were observed, giving an age-standardized prevalence of AF in males of 0.22% and in females of 0.34%. The age of men with AF ranged between 50 and 63 years and of women between 61 and 64 years. No significant differences were observed in persons with AF compared to the control group in risk factor levels and alcohol consumption; however, significant differences could be seen concerning disturbances in quality of life like self-reported health status (p < 0.001), sleep disturbances (p < 0.05), antihypertensive medication (p < 0.001). AF cases were found to have further ECG abnormalities significantly more often (left anterior hemiblock: p < 0.05; ventricular premature beats: p < 0.05). In all subjects with AF in the initial examination 1984/85 AF was found three years later (chronic AF). Overall 13 new cases (7 men, 6 women) were identified in the 1987/88 follow-up. The prevalence of AF in a South German population is comparable with AF prevalences reported from studies in other populations (e.g.) Framingham 1950, Reykjavik 1967/70). Associated ECG abnormalities were found more frequently in subjects with AF. Cases with AF have considerable disturbances in their general well-being.

Age-related changes in stroke risk in men with hypertension and normal blood pressure

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Stroke is a major contributor to total morbidity and mortality in older individuals, and hypertension is an important risk factor for stroke. Relatively few data exist on whether this relationship changes with age.

METHODS

To examine age-related changes in the relationships between risk of stroke and hypertension, we examined the 6-year incidence of stroke among men aged 45 to 81 years using updated blood pressure data from three examinations of Japanese-American men from the Honolulu Heart Program.

RESULTS

Both the prevalence of hypertension (systolic blood pressure > or = 160 mm Hg or diastolic blood pressure > or = 95 mm Hg or the use of antihypertensive medication) and the 6-year incidence of stroke increased significantly with increasing age (P < .01). The increase in thromboembolic stroke incidence with age was more marked in those who were normotensive at baseline (2.7/1000 in those aged 45 to 54 years to 23.9/1000 in those > or = 65 years; P < .001) than in hypertensive men (20.6/1000 in those aged 45 to 54 years to 33.5/1000 in those > or = 65 years; P < .01). The age-related increase in risk of thromboembolic stroke among normotensive men resulted in a decrease in the percentage of strokes attributable to hypertension (50% in those aged 45 to 54 years to 18% in those > or = 65 years; P < .05). Similar trends were seen for hemorrhagic stroke. There were no age-related changes in the relationships of other major atherosclerotic risk factors with stroke. The hypertension/stroke relationships were present after multivariate adjustment for age, smoking, cholesterol, and other factors.

CONCLUSIONS

In view of the greater prevalence of hypertension and the proven efficacy of treatment in the elderly, these findings do not negate the value of aggressive screening and treatment of hypertension in this age group. However, it appears that other unidentified factors have an increasing role in the causation of stroke with advancing age.

Prevalences and correlates of ECG abnormalities in the adult Belgian population

Data from 5,817 men and 5,215 women (age range, 25-74 years) who participated in the Belgian Interuniversity Research on Nutrition and Health were used to determine prevalences and associated variables of different abnormalities on the resting electrocardiogram. Electrocardiographic abnormalities were coded according to the Minnesota classification system. About one third of the subjects showed one or more abnormalities on their electrocardiogram. Major abnormalities occurred in 7.3% of the men and in 4.6% of the women. The prevalence of minor abnormalities was twice as high. Minnesota codes 4 (ST abnormalities) and 5 (T wave changes) were found to be the most prevalent in both sexes (9.6 and 10.5% respectively in women and 8.4 and 9.1% respectively in men), while code 2 (QRS axis deviation, 7.9%) and code 7 (ventricular conduction defect, 8.7%) were quite common in men. Most prevalences were rather log-linearly related with age, except codes 6 (atrioventricular conduction defect) and 9 (miscellaneous items). In the asymptomatic subjects, blood pressure showed the strongest positive correlation with minor ST-T abnormalities in both men and women independent of other factors. Other correlates identified by multivariate analyses were serum potassium, serum phosphor, and serum uric acid levels, as well as the intake of diuretics. However, any major, minor, and ST-T abnormalities were, according to sex, differently related to those correlates.

Glucose intolerance and 22-year stroke incidence. The Honolulu Heart Program

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

This study was conducted to determine whether glucose intolerance and diabetes increase the risk of thromboembolic, hemorrhagic, and total stroke independent of other risk factors.

METHODS

Among 7549 Japanese-American men aged 45 to 68 years and free of coronary heart disease and stroke during 1965 to 1968, history of diabetes, diabetic medication, and nonfasting glucose 1 hour after a 50-g load were used to classify subjects into four glucose tolerance categories. Incidence of stroke over 22 years was ascertained using comprehensive hospital-based surveillance. Age- and risk factor-adjusted relative risks of stroke were determined using a Cox proportional hazards model.

RESULTS

A total of 374 thromboembolic, 128 hemorrhagic, and 36 type-unknown strokes occurred. Incidence of thromboembolic but not hemorrhagic stroke increased with worsening glucose tolerance category. Compared with the "low-normal" (glucose < 151 mg/dL) group, subjects in the "high-normal" (151 to 224 mg/dL), "asymptomatic high" (> or = 225 mg/dL), and "known diabetes" groups all had significantly elevated age-adjusted relative risks of thromboembolic stroke. After adjustment for other risk factors, relative risks remained significantly elevated for the asymptomatic high and known diabetes groups (1.43 and 2.45; 95% confidence intervals, 1.00 to 2.04 and 1.73 to 3.47, respectively). Associations were the same in hypertensive and nonhypertensive subjects and similar but slightly stronger in younger (aged 45 to 54 years) than in older (aged 55 to 68 years) men.

CONCLUSIONS

Subjects with diabetes and elevated glucose appear to be at increased risk of thromboembolic but not hemorrhagic stroke. These associations were largely independent of other cardiovascular disease risk factors. Excess risk is apparent in older as well as younger diabetic individuals and in hypertensive and nonhypertensive subjects with diabetes.