Plants on the move: The role of seed dispersal and initial population establishment for climate-driven range expansions

Morpho-physiological and demographic responses of three threatened Ilex species to changing climate aligned with species distribution models in future climate scenarios

The success of a species in future climate change scenarios depends on its morphological, physiological, and demographic adaptive responses to changing climate. The existence of threatened species against climate adversaries is constrained due to their small population size, narrow genetic base, and narrow niche breadth. We examined if ecological niche model (ENM)-based distribution predictions of species align with their morpho-physiological and demographic responses to future climate change scenarios. We studied three threatened Ilex species, viz., Ilex khasiana Purkay., I. venulosa Hook. f., and I. embelioides Hook. F, with restricted distribution in Indo-Burma biodiversity hotspot. Demographic analysis of the natural populations of each species in Meghalaya, India revealed an upright pyramid suggesting a stable population under the present climate scenario. I. khasiana was confined to higher elevations only while I. venulosa and I. embelioides had wider altitudinal distribution ranges. The bio-climatic niche of I. khasiana was narrow, while the other two species had relatively broader niches. The ENM-predicted potential distribution areas under the current (2022) and future (2050) climatic scenarios (General Circulation Models (GCMs): IPSL-CM5A-LR and NIMR-HADGEM2-AO) revealed that the distribution of highly suitable areas for the most climate-sensitive I. khasiana got drastically reduced. In I. venulosa and I. embelioides, there was an increase in highly suitable areas under the future scenarios. The eco-physiological studies showed marked variation among the species, sites, and treatments (p < 0.05), indicating the differential responses of the three species to varied climate scenarios, but followed a similar trend in species performance aligning with the model predictions.

HELMINTH DIVERSITY OF GREEN TREEFROGS (HYLA CINEREA) IN THEIR EXPANDED GEOGRAPHICAL RANGE

There has been a growing interest in characterizing the parasite faunas of species populations as they expand their geographical ranges as a result of climate change. Expanded-range populations often exhibit lower parasite diversity than historical-range populations, and reduced parasitism may, in part, be attributable to expanded-range populations escaping their native range parasites. The present study compares the helminth faunas of green treefrogs (Hyla cinerea) from 4 historical and 4 expanded-range populations to determine whether these latter populations have undergone parasite escape. Results of this study found relatively high degrees of similarity in species composition among helminth assemblages within historical or within range-expansion locations, with marked differences in the composition of helminth faunas between historical and expanded-range populations of these frogs. Because green treefrogs from expanded-range locations exhibited significant decreases in helminth species diversity compared with those from historical sites, they appear to be escaping levels of parasitism typically experienced by these frogs in their native range. Most notably, there was a decrease in the abundance of helminths with direct life cycles and the absence of trematode assemblages with indirect life cycles among expanded-range populations of H. cinerea. The low prevalence of trematode assemblages among historical populations of green treefrogs could limit these parasites' ability to be introduced and propagated in expanded-range locations. However, the lack of trematode assemblages among populations of H. cinerea in its expanded range may also be due to the absence or limited availability of other aquatic hosts that are required to complete the life cycles of these parasites. The reduction in helminth diversity among expanded-range populations of green treefrogs lends some credence to the notion that individuals at the front of a range expansion often invest less energy in reproduction and in doing so allocate more energy to dispersal and other life-history traits, including resistance to parasites. There may, however, be other explanations for differences in parasite species diversity between historical and expanded-range populations of H. cinerea. Because many of the helminths reported from this study are host generalists of amphibians whose recruitment and transmission among intermediate and paratenic hosts are known to be constrained by water and/or soil moisture conditions, we cannot ignore the role of both local amphibian diversity and local abiotic factors in influencing helminth diversity between the 2 population types of green treefrogs. These latter factors would decrease the role of parasite escape or energy trade-offs in driving helminth diversity among populations of H. cinerea and instead would suggest that local conditions play a more prominent role in structuring their helminth communities.

Inferring long-distance connectivity shaped by air-mass movement for improved experimental design in aerobiology

The collection and analysis of air samples for the study of microbial airborne communities or the detection of airborne pathogens is one of the few insights that we can grasp of a continuously moving flux of microorganisms from their sources to their sinks through the atmosphere. For large-scale studies, a comprehensive sampling of the atmosphere is beyond the scopes of any reasonable experimental setting, making the choice of the sampling locations and dates a key factor for the representativeness of the collected data. In this work we present a new method for revealing the main patterns of air-mass connectivity over a large geographical area using the formalism of spatio-temporal networks, that are particularly suitable for representing complex patterns of connection. We use the coastline of the Mediterranean basin as an example. We reveal a temporal pattern of connectivity over the study area with regions that act as strong sources or strong receptors according to the season of the year. The comparison of the two seasonal networks has also allowed us to propose a new methodology for comparing spatial weighted networks that is inspired from the small-world property of non-spatial networks.

Climate and land-use change will lead to a faunal "savannization" on tropical rainforests

Humans have fragmented, reduced or altered the biodiversity in tropical forests around the world. Climate and land-use change act synergistically, increasing drought and fire frequencies, converting several tropical rainforests into derived savannas, a phenomenon known as "savannization." Yet, we lack a full understanding of the faunal changes in response to the transformation of plant communities. We argue that the composition of vertebrate assemblages in ecotone regions of forest-savanna transitions from South America will be increasingly replaced by open savanna species, a phenomenon we name "faunal savannization." We combined projections from ecological niche models, habitat filter masks and dispersal simulations to forecast the distribution of 349 species of forest- and savanna-dwelling mammal species across South America. We found that the distribution of savanna species is likely to increase by 11%-30% and spread over lowland Amazon and Atlantic forests. Conversely, forest-specialists are expected to lose nearly 50% of their suitable ranges and to move toward core forest zones, which may thus receive an influx of more than 60 species on the move. Our findings indicate that South American ecotonal faunas might experience high rates of occupancy turnover, in a process parallel to that already experienced by plants. Climate-driven migrations of fauna in human-dominated landscapes will likely interact with fire-induced changes in plant communities to reshape the biodiversity in tropical rainforests worldwide.

Using a Trait-Based Approach to Compare Tree Species Sensitivity to Climate Change Stressors in Eastern Canada and Inform Adaptation Practices

Despite recent advances in understanding tree species sensitivities to climate change, ecological knowledge on different species remains scattered across disparate sources, precluding their inclusion in vulnerability assessments. Information on potential sensitivities is needed to identify tree species that require consideration, inform changes to current silvicultural practices and prioritize management actions. A trait-based approach was used to overcome some of the challenges involved in assessing sensitivity, providing a common framework to facilitate data integration and species comparisons. Focusing on 26 abundant tree species from eastern Canada, we developed a series of trait-based indices that capture a species’ ability to cope with three key climate change stressors—increased drought events, shifts in climatically suitable habitat, increased fire intensity and frequency. Ten indices were developed by breaking down species’ response to a stressor into its strategies, mechanisms and traits. Species-specific sensitivities varied across climate stressors but also among the various ways a species can cope with a given stressor. Of the 26 species assessed, Tsuga canadensis (L.) Carrière and Abies balsamea (L.) Mill are classified as the most sensitive species across all indices while Acer rubrum L. and Populus spp. are the least sensitive. Information was found for 95% of the trait-species combinations but the quality of available data varies between indices and species. Notably, some traits related to individual-level sensitivity to drought were poorly documented as well as deciduous species found within the temperate biome. We also discuss how our indices compare with other published indices, using drought sensitivity as an example. Finally, we discuss how the information captured by these indices can be used to inform vulnerability assessments and the development of adaptation measures for species with different management requirements under climate change.

Long-lived larch clones may conserve adaptations that could restrict treeline migration in northern Siberia

The occurrence of refugia beyond the arctic treeline and genetic adaptation therein play a crucial role of largely unknown effect size. While refugia have potential for rapidly colonizing the tundra under global warming, the taxa may be maladapted to the new environmental conditions. Understanding the genetic composition and age of refugia is thus crucial for predicting any migration response. Here, we genotype 194 larch individuals from an ~1.8 km2 area in northcentral Siberia on the southern Taimyr Peninsula by applying an assay of 16 nuclear microsatellite markers. For estimating the age of clonal individuals, we counted tree rings at sections along branches to establish a lateral growth rate that was then combined with geographic distance. Findings reveal that the predominant reproduction type is clonal (58.76%) by short distance spreading of ramets. One outlier of clones 1 km apart could have been dispersed by reindeer. In clonal groups and within individuals, we find that somatic mutations accumulate with geographic distance. Clonal groups of two or more individuals are observed. Clonal age estimates regularly suggest individuals as old as 2,200 years, which coincides with a major environmental change that forced a treeline retreat in the region. We conclude that individuals with clonal growth mode were naturally selected as it lowers the likely risk of extinction under a harsh environment. We discuss this legacy from the past that might now be a maladaptation and hinder expansion under currently strongly increasing temperatures.

Environmental context determines the limiting demographic processes for plant recruitment across a species' elevational range

Plant recruitment is a multi-stage process determining population dynamics and species distributions. Still, we have limited understanding of how the successive demographic processes depend on the environmental context across species’ distributional ranges. We conducted a large-scale transplant experiment to study recruitment of Pinus cembra over six years. We quantified the effects of environmental conditions on four demographic processes and identified the most limiting across and beyond the pines’ elevational range over several years. Realized transition probabilities of the demographic processes varied substantially across the species' distributional range. Seed deposition decreased from the lower to the upper elevational range margin by 90%, but this reduction was offset by increased seed germination and seedling survival. Dispersal limitation at the upper range margin potentially stems from unsuitable seed caching conditions for the animal seed disperser, whereas increased seed germination might result from enemy escape from fungal pathogens and favourable abiotic conditions at the upper range margin. Our multi-year experiment demonstrates that environmental context is decisive for the local relevance of particular demographic processes. We conclude that experimental studies identifying the limiting demographic processes controlling species distributions are key for projecting future range dynamics of plants.

Is the central-marginal hypothesis a general rule? Evidence from three distributions of an expanding mangrove species, Avicennia germinans (L.) L

The central-marginal hypothesis (CMH) posits that range margins exhibit less genetic diversity and greater inter-population genetic differentiation compared to range cores. CMH predictions are based on long-held "abundant-centre" assumptions of a decline in ecological conditions and abundances towards range margins. Although much empirical research has confirmed CMH, exceptions remain almost as common. We contend that mangroves provide a model system to test CMH that alleviates common confounding factors and may help clarify this lack of consensus. Here, we document changes in black mangrove (Avicennia germinans) population genetics with 12 nuclear microsatellite loci along three replicate coastlines in the United States (only two of three conform to underlying "abundant-centre" assumptions). We then test an implicit prediction of CMH (reduced genetic diversity may constrain adaptation at range margins) by measuring functional traits of leaves associated with cold tolerance, the climatic factor that controls these mangrove distributional limits. CMH predictions were confirmed only along the coastlines that conform to "abundant-centre" assumptions and, in contrast to theory, range margin A. germinans exhibited functional traits consistent with greater cold tolerance compared to range cores. These findings support previous accounts that CMH may not be a general rule across species and that reduced neutral genetic diversity at range margins may not be a constraint to shifts in functional trait variation along climatic gradients.

Perceptions of U.S. and Canadian maple syrup producers toward climate change, its impacts, and potential adaptation measures

The production of maple syrup is an important cultural and economic activity directly related to the climate of northeastern North America. As a result, there are signs that climate change could have negative impacts on maple syrup production in the next decades, particularly for regions located at the southern margins of the sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.) range. The purpose of this survey study is to present the beliefs and opinions of maple syrup producers of Canada (N = 241) and the U.S. (N = 113) on climate change in general, its impacts on sugar maple health and maple syrup production, and potential adaptation measures. Using conditional inference classification trees, we examined how the socio-economic profile of respondents and the geographic location and size of respondents' sugar bushes shaped the responses of survey participants. While a majority (75%) of respondents are confident that the average temperature on Earth is increasing, less than half (46%) believe that climate change will have negative impacts on maple syrup yield in the next 30 years. Political view was a significant predictor of these results, with respondents at the right right and center-right of the political spectrum being less likely to believe in climate change and less likely to anticipate negative effects of climate change on maple syrup production. In addition, 77% of the participants indicated an interest in adopting adaptation strategies if those could increase maple syrup production. This interest was greater for respondents using vacuum tubing for sap collection than other collection methods. However, for many respondents (particularly in Canada), lack of information was identified as a constraint limiting adaptation to climate change.

Island rewilding with giant tortoises in an era of climate change

Replacing recently extinct endemic giant tortoises with extant, functional analogues provide the perhaps best examples of island rewilding to date. Yet, an efficient future application of this conservation action is challenging in an era of climate change. We here present and discuss a conceptual framework that can serve as a roadmap for the study and application of tortoise rewilding in an uncertain future. We focus on three main ecological functions mediated by giant tortoises, namely herbivory, seed dispersal and nutrient cycling, and discuss how climate change is likely to impact these. We then propose and discuss mitigation strategies such as artificial constructed shade sites and water holes that can help drive and maintain the ecosystem functions provided by the tortoises on a landscape scale. The application of the framework and the mitigation strategies are illustrated with examples from both wild and rewilded populations of the Aldabra giant tortoise, Aldabrachelys gigantea, in the Western Indian Ocean.This article is part of the theme issue 'Trophic rewilding: consequences for ecosystems under global change'.

Limited prospects for future alpine treeline advance in the Canadian Rocky Mountains

Treeline advance has occurred throughout the twentieth century in mountainous regions around the world; however, local variation and temporal lags in responses to climate warming indicate that the upper limits of some treelines are not necessarily in climatic equilibrium. These observations suggest that factors other than climate are constraining tree establishment beyond existing treelines. Using a seed addition experiment, we tested the effects of seed availability, predation and microsite limitation on the establishment of two subalpine tree species (Picea engelmannii and Abies lasiocarpa) across four treelines in the Canadian Rocky Mountains. The effect of vegetation removal on seedling growth was also determined, and microclimate conditions were monitored. Establishment limitations observed in the field were placed in context with the effects of soil properties observed in a parallel experiment. The seed addition experiment revealed reduced establishment with increasing elevation, suggesting that although establishment within the treeline ecotone is at least partially seed limited, other constraints are more important beyond the current treeline. The effects of herbivory and microsite availability significantly reduced seedling establishment but were less influential beyond the treeline. Microclimate monitoring revealed that establishment was negatively related to growing season temperatures and positively related to the duration of winter snow cover, counter to the conventional expectation that establishment is limited by low temperatures. Overall, it appears that seedling establishment beyond treeline is predominantly constrained by a combination of high soil surface temperatures during the growing season, reduced winter snowpack and unfavourable soil properties. Our study supports the assertion that seedling establishment in alpine treeline ecotones is simultaneously limited by various climatic and nonclimatic drivers. Together, these factors may limit future treeline advance in the Canadian Rocky Mountains and should be considered when assessing the potential for treeline advance in alpine systems elsewhere.

Lags in the response of mountain plant communities to climate change

Rapid climatic changes and increasing human influence at high elevations around the world will have profound impacts on mountain biodiversity. However, forecasts from statistical models (e.g. species distribution models) rarely consider that plant community changes could substantially lag behind climatic changes, hindering our ability to make temporally realistic projections for the coming century. Indeed, the magnitudes of lags, and the relative importance of the different factors giving rise to them, remain poorly understood. We review evidence for three types of lag: "dispersal lags" affecting plant species' spread along elevational gradients, "establishment lags" following their arrival in recipient communities, and "extinction lags" of resident species. Variation in lags is explained by variation among species in physiological and demographic responses, by effects of altered biotic interactions, and by aspects of the physical environment. Of these, altered biotic interactions could contribute substantially to establishment and extinction lags, yet impacts of biotic interactions on range dynamics are poorly understood. We develop a mechanistic community model to illustrate how species turnover in future communities might lag behind simple expectations based on species' range shifts with unlimited dispersal. The model shows a combined contribution of altered biotic interactions and dispersal lags to plant community turnover along an elevational gradient following climate warming. Our review and simulation support the view that accounting for disequilibrium range dynamics will be essential for realistic forecasts of patterns of biodiversity under climate change, with implications for the conservation of mountain species and the ecosystem functions they provide.

Multilayer networks reveal the spatial structure of seed-dispersal interactions across the Great Rift landscapes

Species interaction networks are traditionally explored as discrete entities with well-defined spatial borders, an oversimplification likely impairing their applicability. Using a multilayer network approach, explicitly accounting for inter-habitat connectivity, we investigate the spatial structure of seed-dispersal networks across the Gorongosa National Park, Mozambique. We show that the overall seed-dispersal network is composed by spatially explicit communities of dispersers spanning across habitats, functionally linking the landscape mosaic. Inter-habitat connectivity determines spatial structure, which cannot be accurately described with standard monolayer approaches either splitting or merging habitats. Multilayer modularity cannot be predicted by null models randomizing either interactions within each habitat or those linking habitats; however, as habitat connectivity increases, random processes become more important for overall structure. The importance of dispersers for the overall network structure is captured by multilayer versatility but not by standard metrics. Highly versatile species disperse many plant species across multiple habitats, being critical to landscape functional cohesion.

Frugivoría y dispersión de semillas de la palma <i>Oenocarpus bataua</i> en dos regiones con diferente estado de conservación

Se comparó la frugivoría y dispersión de semillas de Oenocarpus bataua en dos áreas en Colombia, con diferente estado de conservación: Porce (departamento de Antioquia), bosque subandino alterado, fragmentado con baja conectividad y defaunado; y Reserva Las Unamas (departamento del Meta), bosque continuo, menos alterado y con presencia de especies de fauna, principalmente mamíferos desaparecidos en áreas transformadas. Se realizaron observaciones focales, fototrampeo y registro de distancias de dispersión. Cuatro de cinco frugívoros en Porce fueron pequeños mamíferos, mientras que en Las Unamas se registraron cuatro especies de tamaño mediano, y de acuerdo a registros de fauna en el área, hasta 24 especies podrían consumir los frutos. El número de semillas dispersadas, las distancias de dispersión y las distancias de semillas y plántulas al árbol parental más cercano, fueron mayores en Porce. Estos resultados sugieren intensa actividad de roedores pequeños, principalmente las ardillas, que posiblemente han aumentado, como producto de la ausencia de depredadores y competidores desaparecidos por cacería y fragmentación del hábitat. Estos roedores ejercen alta presión sobre los frutos de O. bataua, pero a la vez cumplen una función de dispersión de semillas. A pesar de la limitada dispersión de O. bataua, en ambas áreas estudiadas, esta palma es una especie abundante, fuente casi permanente de alimento para la fauna silvestre y un elemento estructurante del bosque. Este tipo de estudio es significativo debido a que permite reconocer la importancia de la conservación de áreas que sustentan interacciones ecológicas, como la dispersión de semillas y en general la funcionalidad de los ecosistemas que están siendo amenazados por la defaunación y fragmentación del hábitat.

Management of Protected Areas and Its Effect on an Ecosystem Function: Removal of Prosopis flexuosa Seeds by Mammals in Argentinian Drylands

The ecological function of animal seed dispersal depends on species interactions and can be affected by drivers such as the management interventions applied to protected areas. This study was conducted in two protected areas in the Monte Desert: a fenced reserve with grazing exclusion and absence of large native mammals (the Man and Biosphere Ñacuñán Reserve; FR) and an unfenced reserve with low densities of large native and domestic animals (Ischigualasto Park; UFR). The study focuses on Prosopis flexuosa seed removal by different functional mammal groups: "seed predators", "scatter-hoarders", and "opportunistic frugivores". Under both interventions, the relative contribution to seed removal by different functional mammal groups was assessed, as well as how these groups respond to habitat heterogeneity (i.e. vegetation structure) at different spatial scales. Camera traps were used to identify mammal species removing P. flexuosa seeds and to quantify seed removal; remote sensing data helped analyze habitat heterogeneity. In the FR, the major fruit removers were a seed predator (Graomys griseoflavus) and a scatter-hoarder (Microcavia asutralis). In the UFR, the main seed removers were the opportunistic frugivores (Lycalopex griseus and Dolichotis patagonum), who removed more seeds than the seed predator in the FR. The FR shows higher habitat homogeneity than the UFR, and functional groups respond differently to habitat heterogeneity at different spatial scales. In the FR, because large herbivores are locally extinct (e.g. Lama guanicoe) and domestic herbivores are excluded, important functions of large herbivores are missing, such as the maintenance of habitat heterogeneity, which provides habitats for medium-sized opportunistic frugivores with consequent improvement of quality and quantity of seed dispersal services. In the UFR, with low densities of large herbivores, probably one important ecosystem function this group performs is to increase habitat heterogeneity, allowing for the activity of medium-sized mammals who, behaving as opportunistic frugivores, did the most significant seed removal.

Forest roadsides harbour less competitive habitats for a relict mountain plant (Pulsatilla vernalis) in lowlands

The long-term survival of relict populations depends on the accessibility of appropriate sites (microrefugia). In recent times, due to the mass extinction of rare species that has resulted from the loss of natural habitats, the question is – Are there any human-made sites that can act as refugial habitats? We examined forest roadside populations of the mountain plant Pulsatilla vernalis in the last large lowland refugium in Central Europe. We compared the habitat conditions and community structure of roadsides with P. vernalis against the forest interior. Light availability and bryophyte composition were the main factors that distinguished roadsides. Pulsatilla occurred on sites that had more light than the forest interior, but were also more or less shaded by trees, so more light came as one-side illumination from the road. Roadsides had also a lower coverage of bryophytes that formed large, dense carpets. At the same time, they were characterised by a greater richness of vascular plants and ‘small’ bryophytes, which corresponds to a higher frequency of disturbances. In a warming and more fertile Anthropocene world, competition plays the main role in the transformation of forest communities, which is why relict populations have found refugia in extensively disturbed human-made habitats.

Climate Warming and Seasonal Precipitation Change Interact to Limit Species Distribution Shifts across Western North America

Using an extensive network of occurrence records for 293 plant species collected over the past 40 years across a climatically diverse geographic section of western North America, we find that plant species distributions were just as likely to shift upwards (i.e., towards higher elevations) as downward (i.e., towards lower elevations)–despite consistent warming across the study area. Although there was no clear directional response to climate warming across the entire study area, there was significant region- to region- variation in responses (i.e. from as many as 73% to as few as 32% of species shifting upward). To understand the factors that might be controlling region-specific distributional shifts of plant species, we explored the relationship between the direction of change in distribution limits and the nature of recent climate change. We found that the direction that distribution limits shifted was explained by an interaction between the rate of change in local summer temperatures and seasonal precipitation. Specifically, species were more likely to shift upward at their upper elevational limit when minimum temperatures increased and snowfall was unchanging or declined at slower rates (<0.5 mm/year). This suggests that both low temperature and water availability limit upward shifts at upper elevation limits. By contrast, species were more likely to shift upwards at their lower elevation limit when maximum temperatures increased, but also shifted upwards under conditions of cooling temperatures when precipitation decreased. This suggests increased water stress may drive upward shifts at lower elevation limits. Our results suggest that species’ elevational distribution shifts are not predictable by climate warming alone but depend on the interaction between seasonal temperature and precipitation change.

Usefulness of Species Traits in Predicting Range Shifts

Information on the ecological traits of species might improve predictions of climate-driven range shifts. However, the usefulness of traits is usually assumed rather than quantified. Here, we present a framework to identify the most informative traits, based on four key range-shift processes: emigration of individuals or propagules away from the natal location; the distance a species can move; establishment of self-sustaining populations; and proliferation following establishment. We propose a framework that categorises traits according to their contribution to range-shift processes. We demonstrate how the framework enables the predictive value of traits to be evaluated empirically and how this categorisation can be used to better understand range-shift processes; we also illustrate how range-shift estimates can be improved.

Microrefugia: Not for everyone

Microrefugia are sites that support populations of species when their ranges contract during unfavorable climate episodes. Here, we review and discuss two aspects relevant for microrefugia. First, distributions of different species are influenced by different climatic variables. Second, climatic variables differ in the degree of local decoupling from the regional climate. Based on this, we suggest that only species limited by climatic conditions decoupled from the regional climate can benefit from microrefugia. We argue that this restriction has received little attention in spite of its importance for microrefugia as a mechanism for species resilience (the survival of unfavorable episodes and subsequent range expansion). Presence of microrefugia will depend on both the responses of individual species to local climatic variation and how climate-forcing factors shape the correlation between local and regional climate across space and time.

Space, time and complexity in plant dispersal ecology

Dispersal of pollen and seeds are essential functions of plant species, with far-reaching demographic, ecological and evolutionary consequences. Interest in plant dispersal has increased with concerns about the persistence of populations and species under global change. We argue here that advances in plant dispersal ecology research will be determined by our ability to surmount challenges of spatiotemporal scales and heterogeneities and ecosystem complexity. Based on this framework, we propose a selected set of research questions, for which we suggest some specific objectives and methodological approaches. Reviewed topics include multiple vector contributions to plant dispersal, landscape-dependent dispersal patterns, long-distance dispersal events, spatiotemporal variation in dispersal, and the consequences of dispersal for plant communities, populations under climate change, and anthropogenic landscapes.

High genetic diversity and distinctiveness of rear-edge climate relicts maintained by ancient tetraploidisation for Alnus glutinosa

Populations located at the rear-edge of a species' distribution may have disproportionate ecological and evolutionary importance for biodiversity conservation in a changing global environment. Yet genetic studies of such populations remain rare. This study investigates the evolutionary history of North-African low latitude marginal populations of Alnus glutinosa Gaertn., a European tree species that plays a significant ecological role as a keystone of riparian ecosystems. We genotyped 551 adults from 19 populations located across North Africa at 12 microsatellite loci and applied a coalescent-based simulation approach to reconstruct the demographic and evolutionary history of these populations. Surprisingly, Moroccan trees were tetraploids demonstrating a strong distinctiveness of these populations within a species otherwise known as diploid. Best-fitting models of demographic reconstruction revealed the relict nature of Moroccan populations that were found to have withstood past climate change events and to be much older than Algerian and Tunisian populations. This study highlights the complex demographic history that can be encountered in rear-edge distribution margins that here consist of both old stable climate relict and more recent populations, distinctively diverse genetically both quantitatively and qualitatively. We emphasize the high evolutionary and conservation value of marginal rear-edge populations of a keystone riparian species in the context of on-going climate change in the Mediterranean region.

Exploring tree species colonization potentials using a spatially explicit simulation model: implications for four oaks under climate change

Climate change impacts tree species differentially by exerting unique pressures and altering their suitable habitats. We previously predicted these changes in suitable habitat for current and future climates using a species habitat model (DISTRIB) in the eastern United States. Based on the accuracy of the model, the species assemblages should eventually reflect the new quasi-equilibrium suitable habitats (~2100) after accounting for the lag in colonization. However, it is an open question if and when these newly suitable habitats will be colonized under current fragmented landscapes and realistic migration rates. To evaluate this, we used a spatially explicit cell-based model (SHIFT) that estimates colonization potentials under current fragmented habitats and several estimates of historical migration rates at a 1 km resolution. Computation time, which was previously the biggest constraint, was overcome by a novel application of convolution and Fast Fourier Transforms. SHIFT outputs, when intersected with future suitable habitats predicted by DISTRIB, allow assessment of colonization potential under future climates. In this article, we show how our approach can be used to screen multiple tree species for their colonization potentials under climate change. In particular, we use the DISTRIB and SHIFT models in combination to assess if the future dominant forest types in the north will really be dominated by oaks, as modelled via DISTRIB. Even under optimistic scenarios, we conclude that only a small fraction of the suitable habitats of oaks predicted by DISTRIB is likely to be occupied within 100 years, and this will be concentrated in the first 10-20 km from the current boundary. We also show how DISTRIB and SHIFT can be used to evaluate the potential for assisted migration of vulnerable tree species, and discuss the dynamics of colonization at range limits.

Where do seeds go when they go far? Distance and directionality of avian seed dispersal in heterogeneous landscapes

Seed dispersal at large scales strongly influences plant population dynamics. Still, ecologists have rarely measured seed dispersal at relevant scales, and the role of habitat types in affecting seed dispersal at long distances remains unexplored. We studied seed dispersal of Ilex aquifolium and Crataegus monogyna in northern Spain, hypothesizing that seeds would be recovered at higher rates and at longer distances (LDD) at habitats with fleshy-fruited trees, compared to habitats with other tree types or at open habitats. We tracked seeds in eight landscapes by enriching trees with 15N isotopes at the center of landscapes, and then detected 15N-marked seeds by sampling at distances of up to 700 m. We found that seeds arrive in greater densities and at longer distances in habitats with trees, particularly fleshy-fruited types, producing different LDD probabilities for each habitat. Results also show a disproportional arrival of seeds in habitats similar to those of mother plants, which should affect seed establishment and the genetic diversity of plant neighborhoods. Findings reveal the strong dependence of seed dispersal on the existing templates that guide the movements of avian dispersers in heterogeneous landscapes and also suggest that LDD above tree lines and beyond hard habitat edges can be difficult.

Efficient mitigation of founder effects during the establishment of a leading-edge oak population

Numerous plant species are shifting their range polewards in response to ongoing climate change. Range shifts typically involve the repeated establishment and growth of leading-edge populations well ahead of the main species range. How these populations recover from founder events and associated diversity loss remains poorly understood. To help fill this gap, we exhaustively investigated a newly established population of holm oak (Quercus ilex) growing more than 30 km ahead of the nearest larger stands. Pedigree reconstructions showed that plants belong to two non-overlapping generations and that the whole population originates from only two founder trees. The four first-generation trees that have reached maturity showed disparate mating patterns despite being full-sibs. Long-distance pollen immigration was notable despite the strong isolation of the stand: 6 per cent gene flow events in acorns collected on the trees (n = 255), and as much as 27 per cent among their established offspring (n = 33). Our results show that isolated leading-edge populations of wind-pollinated forest trees can rapidly restore their genetic diversity through the interacting effects of efficient long-distance pollen flow and purging of inbred individuals during recruitment. They imply that range expansions of these species are primarily constrained by initial propagule arrival rather than by subsequent gene flow.

Will plant movements keep up with climate change?

In the face of anthropogenic climate change, species must acclimate, adapt, move, or die. Although some species are moving already, their ability to keep up with the faster changes expected in the future is unclear. 'Migration lag' is a particular concern with plants, because it could threaten both biodiversity and carbon storage. Plant movements are not realistically represented in models currently used to predict future vegetation and carbon-cycle feedbacks, so there is an urgent need to understand how much of a problem failure to track climate change is likely to be. Therefore, in this review, we compare how fast plants need to move with how fast they can move; that is, the velocity of climate change with the velocity of plant movement.

Range expansion of a selfing polyploid plant despite widespread genetic uniformity

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Ongoing and previous range expansions have a strong influence on population genetic structure of plants. In turn, genetic variation in the new range may affect the population dynamics and the expansion process. The annual Ceratocapnos claviculata (Papaveraceae) has expanded its Atlantic European range in recent decades towards the north and east. Patterns of genetic diversity were investigated across the native range to assess current population structure and phylogeographical patterns. A test was then made as to whether genetic diversity is reduced in the neophytic range and an attempt was made to identify source regions of the expansion.

METHODS

Samples were taken from 55 populations in the native and 34 populations in the neophytic range (Sweden, north-east Germany). Using amplified fragment length polymorphism markers an analysis was made of genetic variation and population structure (Bayesian statistical modelling) and population differentiation was quantified. Pollen/ovule ratio was analysed as a proxy for the breeding system.

KEY RESULTS

Genetic diversity at population level was very low (mean H(e) = 0·004) and two multilocus genotypes dominated large parts of the new range. Population differentiation was strong (F(ST) = 0·812). These results and a low pollen/ovule ratio are consistent with an autogamous breeding system. Genetic variation decreased from the native to the neophytic range. Within the native range, H(e) decreased towards the north-east, whereas population size increased. According to the Bayesian cluster analysis, the putative source regions of the neophytic range are situated in north-west Germany and adjacent regions.

CONCLUSIONS

Ceratocapnos claviculata shows a cline of genetic variation due to postglacial recolonization from putative Pleistocene refugia in south-west Europe. Nevertheless, the species has expanded successfully during the past 40 years to southern Sweden and north-east Germany where it occurs as an opportunistic neophyte. Recent expansion was mainly human-mediated by single long-distance diaspore transport and was facilitated by habitat modification.