Recent and historical range shifts of two canopy-forming seaweeds in North Spain and the link with trends in sea surface temperature

Lateral carbon export of macroalgae and seagrass from diverse habitats contributes particulate organic carbon in the deep sea of the Northern South China Sea

Our study explored the lateral export of macroalgae and seagrass to the deep sea of the Northern South China Sea (NSCS). Particulate organic carbon (POC) collected from a depth of 500 m off southwestern Taiwan (station T) and Dongsha Atoll (station K) underwent environmental DNA (eDNA) and stable isotope assays. Metabarcoding using 18S V9 rDNA revealed lateral export of macrophyte detritus in NSCS. At station K, seagrass detritus predominated, while at station T, macroalgae-derived detritus was dominant. The consistency in the stable carbon isotope signature between POC and macrophytes indicates that stable carbon is an ideal bio-indicator for tracking macrophyte detritus destination and transformation after it has been laterally exported. Based on robust scientific methods, these findings provide valuable insights into the lateral export of macrophyte detritus to the deep sea in POC, influenced by habitat species, and shaped by distinct oceanographic physics around NSCS.

Temporal variability of sea surface temperature affects marine macrophytes range retractions as well as gradual warming

Record mean sea surface temperatures (SST) during the past decades and marine heatwaves have been identified as responsible for severe impacts on marine ecosystems, but the role of changes in the patterns of temporal variability under global warming has been much less studied. We compare descriptors of two time series of SST, encompassing extirpations (i.e. local extinctions) of six cold-temperate macroalgae species at their trailing range edge. We decompose the effects of gradual warming, extreme events and intrinsic variability (e.g. seasonality). We also relate the main factors determining macroalgae range shifts with their life cycles characteristics and thermal tolerance. We found extirpations of macroalgae were related to stretches of coast where autumn SST underwent warming, increased temperature seasonality, and decreased skewness over time. Regardless of the species, the persisting populations shared a common environmental domain, which was clearly differentiated from those experiencing local extinction. However, macroalgae species responded to temperature components in different ways, showing dissimilar resilience. Consideration of multiple thermal manifestations of climate change is needed to better understand local extinctions of habitat-forming species. Our study provides a framework for the incorporation of unused measures of environmental variability while analyzing the distributions of coastal species.

What if the upwelling weakens? Effects of rising temperature and nutrient depletion on coastal assemblages

Surface temperature of the oceans has increased globally over the past decades. In coastal areas influenced by eastern boundary upwelling systems (EBUS), winds push seawater offshore and deep, cold and nutrient-rich seawater rise towards the surface, partially buffering global warming. On the North coast of Portugal, the NW Iberian upwelling system allows extensive kelp forests to thrive in these "boreal-like" conditions, fostering highly diverse and productive communities. However, the warming of the upper layer of the ocean may weaken this upwelling, leading to higher sea surface temperature and lower nutrient input in the coastal areas. The effects of these changes on the structure and function of coastal ecosystems remain unexplored. The present study aimed to examine the combined effects of elevated temperature and nutrient depletion on semi-naturally structured assemblages. The eco-physiological responses investigated included growth, chlorophyll fluorescence and metabolic rates at the levels of individual species and whole assemblages. Our findings showed interactive effects of the combination of elevated temperature with nutrient depletion on the large canopy-forming species (i.e., kelp). As main contributor to community response, those effects drove the whole assemblage responses to significant losses in productivity levels. We also found an additive effect of elevated temperature and reduced nutrients on sub-canopy species (i.e., Chondrus crispus), while turfs were only affected by temperature. Our results suggest that under weakening upwelling scenarios, the ability of the macroalgal assemblages to maintain high productivity rates could be seriously affected and predict a shift in community composition with the loss of marine forests.

Effects of ocean warming and pollution on Sargassum forests

The combined effects of climate change and ocean pollution have resulted in a noteworthy decline of canopy-forming species, impacting marine biodiversity and ecosystem functioning significantly. In this context, Sargassum cymosum, which is widely distributed along the southwestern Atlantic Ocean, serves as an excellent model among canopy-forming species to investigate these impacts on populations in different regions and environmental conditions. Here, we evaluate the ecophysiological responses of two populations of S. cymosum, from Florianopolis (warm-temperate province; WTP) and Fernando de Noronha (tropical province, TP), through of interaction of temperatures and nutrient concentrations, representing marine heatwaves and acute pollution levels. Our findings revealed a decrease in biomass in both populations, highlighting the significance of nutrient enrichment as an anthropogenic filter that might potentially inhibit the expansion of the populations from tropical regions and temperature for WTP ones. These stressors directly impacted the physiological performance of S. cymosum populations, including relative growth rates, photosynthesis, chlorophylls, carotenoids and phenolic compound levels. Although there was an increase in both parameters for the TP population, a significant loss of biomass was observed, with growth rates reaching -1.5% per day. Our results highlight the need for urgent actions to manage the eutrophication process due to its negative association with global warming, which can enhance the impacts and preclude the settlement and survival of Sargassum in warm-temperate areas considering the observed and predicted tropicalization process.

Rapid tropicalization evidence of subtidal seaweed assemblages along a coastal transitional zone

Anthropogenic climate change, particularly seawater warming, is expected to drive quick shifts in marine species distribution transforming coastal communities. These shifts in distribution will be particularly noticeable in biogeographical transition zones. The continental Portuguese coast stretches from north to south along 900 km. Despite this short spatial scale, the strong physical gradient intensified by the Iberian upwelling creates a transition zone where seaweed species from boreal and Lusitanian-Mediterranean origin coexist. On the northern coast, kelp marine forests thrive in the cold, nutrient-rich oceanic waters. In the south, communities resemble Mediterranean-type seaweed assemblages and are dominated by turfs. Recent evidence suggests that in these coastal areas, marine intertidal species are shifting their distribution edges as a result of rising seawater temperatures. Taking advantage of previous abundance data collected in 2012 from subtidal seaweed communities, a new sampling program was carried out in the same regions in 2018 to assess recent changes. The results confirmed the latitudinal gradient in macroalgal assemblages. More importantly we found significant structural and functional changes in a short period of six years, with regional increases of abundance of warm-affinity species, small seaweeds like turfs. Species richness, diversity, and biomass increase, all accompanied by an increase of community temperature index (CTI). Our findings suggest that subtidal seaweed communities in this transitional area have undergone major changes within a few years. Evidence of "fast tropicalization" of the subtidal communities of the Portuguese coast are strong indication of the effects of anthropic climate change over coastal assemblages.

Alongshore upwelling modulates the intensity of marine heatwaves in a temperate coastal sea

Analyses of long-term temperature records based on satellite data have revealed an increase in the frequency and intensity of marine heatwaves (MHWs) in the world oceans, a trend directly associated with global change according to climate model simulations. However, these analyses often target open ocean pelagic systems and rarely include local scale, field temperature records that are more adequate to assess the impact of MHWs close to the land-sea interface. Here, we compared the incidence and characteristics of open ocean MHWs detected by satellites with those observed in the field over two decades (1998-2019) at two temperate intertidal locations in the central Cantabrian Sea, southern Bay of Biscay. Satellite retrievals tended to smooth out cooling events associated with intermittent, alongshore upwelling, especially during summer. These biases propagated to the characterization of MHWs and resulted in an overestimation of their incidence and duration close to the coast. To reconcile satellite and field records, we developed a downscaling approach based on regression modeling that enabled the reconstruction of past temperatures and analyze MHW trends. Despite the cooling effect due to upwelling, the temperature reconstructions revealed a six-fold increase in the incidence of MHWs in the Cantabrian Sea over the last four decades. A comparison between static (no trend) vs. dynamic (featuring a linear warming trend) MHW detection thresholds allowed us to attribute over half of the increase in MHW incidence to the ocean warming trend. Our results highlight the importance of local processes to fully characterize the complexity and impacts of MHWs on marine coastal ecosystems and call for the conservation of climate refugia associated with coastal upwelling to counter the impacts of climate warming.

A spatially-modelled snapshot of future marine macroalgal assemblages in southern Europe: Towards a broader Mediterranean region?

The effect of climate change on species distribution has been the focus of much recent research, but the community-level approach remains poorly studied. Our investigation applies a present assemblage-environment relationship model for the first time to the predict changes in subtidal macroalgal assemblages in the northern Iberian Peninsula under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios by 2100. Water temperature is the most relevant factor in shaping assemblage distribution, whilst nutrient availability plays a secondary role. The results partially support our hypothesis that there may well be a potential meridionalisation of northern Iberian assemblages in the future. Under the most pessimistic scenario, the model projects that the north-western assemblages will remain distinct from the rest, whereas the central and eastern assemblages of the north coast of the Iberian Peninsula will come to resemble those of the Mediterranean region more closely than those of the northwest coast. This research may help predict how the biodiversity of the coastal ecosystem will respond to new environmental conditions. This is essential information for developing proper management and conservation policies.

Diversity of marine benthic algae from Cantabria (Eastern Cantabrian, Spain): a historical overview of research and publications

The macroalgal flora of Cantabria (north of Spain) has attracted the interest of many researchers on past occasions. Currently published information only reflects occasional collections from sporadic field visits to this region of the Spanish Atlantic coast. To overcome this, a historical overview of research and publications, encompassing collections and presence data recording, has been undertaken. This work lists the resultant taxonomic records and provides information about macroalgal flora of Cantabria. A total of 425 species (25 Cyanobacteria, 55 Chlorophyta, 81 Ochrophyta, and 264 Rhodophyta) were identified. The number of specific, infraspecific taxa, and stages is 437: 25 Cyanobacteria, 57 Chlorophyta, 89 Ochrophyta, and 266 Rhodophyta. The floristic character of flora from the Cantabrian coast is compared over time and with nearby regions applying Cheney’s ratio [(Rhodophyta+Chlorophyta)/ Ochrophyta, or (R+C)/O]. The present paper aims to provide an overview of the research that has been conducted in the Cantabrian coast, not only found in international publications but also in local publications as well as unpublished theses.

Heatwaves during low tide are critical for the physiological performance of intertidal macroalgae under global warming scenarios

The abundance and distribution of intertidal canopy-forming macroalgae are threatened by the increase in sea surface temperature and in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves caused by global warming. This study evaluated the physiological response of predominant intertidal macroalgae in the NW Iberian Peninsula (Bifurcaria bifurcata, Cystoseira tamariscifolia and Codium tomentosum) to increased seawater temperature during immersion and increased air temperatures during consecutive emersion cycles. We combined field mensuration and laboratory experiments in which we measured mortality, growth, maximum quantum yield and C:N content of the macroalgae. Air temperature was a critical factor in determining physiological responses and survivorship of all species, whereas high seawater temperature had sublethal effects. Cystoseira tamariscifolia suffered the greatest decreases in Fv/Fm, growth and the highest mortality under higher air temperatures, whereas C. tomentosum was the most resistant and resilient species. Two consecutive cycles of emersion under atmospheric heatwaves caused cumulative stress in all three macroalgae, affecting the physiological performance and increasing the mortality. The potential expansion of the warm-temperate species B. bifurcata, C. tamariscifolia and C. tomentosum in the NW Iberian Peninsula in response to increasing seawater temperature may be affected by the impact of increased air temperature, especially in a region where the incidence of atmospheric heatwaves is expected to increase.

The impact of climate change on the geographical distribution of habitat-forming macroalgae in the Rías Baixas

In the current scenario of climate change characterized by a generalized warming, many species are facing local extinctions in areas with conditions near their thermal tolerance threshold. At present, the southern limit of the geographical distribution of several habitat-forming algae of cold-temperate affinities is located in the Northwest Iberian Peninsula, and the Rías Baixas may be acting as contemporary refugia at the range edge. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze future changes induced by ocean warming in this area that may induce changes in macroalgae populations. The Delft3D-Flow model forced with climatic data was used to calculate July-August sea surface temperature (SST) for the present (1999-2018) and for the far future (2080-2099). Mean daily SST was used to develop and calibrate a mechanistic geographical distribution model based on the thermal survival threshold of two intertidal habitat-forming macroalgae, namely Himanthalia elongata (L.) S.F.Gray and Bifurcaria bifurcata R. Ross. Results show that H. elongata will become extinct in the Rías Baixas by the end of the century, while B. bifurcata will persist and may occupy potential free space left by the decline in H. elongata.

Setting the basis for a long-term monitoring network of intertidal seaweed assemblages in northwest Spain

A distortion of coastal communities has been reported along the European Atlantic in recent years. In NW Spain, the lack of studies focusing on long-term changes was resolved when several common perennial seaweeds were shown to have diminished in occurrence between 1998/99 and 2014. To ascertain whether their decline reflected a genuine long-term trend, the same network of monitoring locations and the same set of perennial seaweeds was re-surveyed in 2018. Contrary to our expectations, the average number of species per site increased in semi-exposed and semi-sheltered locations to become statistically indistinguishable from 1998/99 estimates. Nevertheless, site occupancy rates continued to be below 1998/99 estimates for several seaweeds, and warming, both from rising average temperatures and from more frequent and intense marine heatwaves in autumn, seems a plausible explanation for their decline. The benefits of routinely monitoring a network of fixed stations, especially when they are subject to different levels of wave exposure, are discussed.

A regime shift in intertidal assemblages triggered by loss of algal canopies: A multidecadal survey

Canopy-forming macroalgae recently experienced a worldwide decline. This is relevant, because canopies sustain complex food webs in temperate coasts. We assessed the die-back of the canopy-forming alga Fucus serratus in N Spain, at its warm distributional range boundary, and its effects on associated assemblages. We combined long-term descriptive surveys with canopy-removal experiments. Results showed that rapid shifts to turf-forming communities were mostly the direct consequence of the canopy loss, rather than a concurrent process directly triggered by climate change. The switch alters the whole food web, as the prominent role of F.serratus and other cold-temperate intertidal fucoids is not being replaced by functionally equivalent species. Canopy loss caused a rapid biotic homogenization at regional scale which is spreading towards the west, from the edge to the central part of the former distributional range of F.serratus in N Spain. The most obvious effect is the ecological and functional impoverishment of the coastal system.

Species better track climate warming in the oceans than on land

There is mounting evidence of species redistribution as climate warms. Yet, our knowledge of the coupling between species range shifts and isotherm shifts remains limited. Here, we introduce BioShifts-a global geo-database of 30,534 range shifts. Despite a spatial imbalance towards the most developed regions of the Northern Hemisphere and a taxonomic bias towards the most charismatic animals and plants of the planet, data show that marine species are better at tracking isotherm shifts, and move towards the pole six times faster than terrestrial species. More specifically, we find that marine species closely track shifting isotherms in warm and relatively undisturbed waters (for example, the Central Pacific Basin) or in cold waters subject to high human pressures (for example, the North Sea). On land, human activities impede the capacity of terrestrial species to track isotherm shifts in latitude, with some species shifting in the opposite direction to isotherms. Along elevational gradients, species follow the direction of isotherm shifts but at a pace that is much slower than expected, especially in areas with warm climates. Our results suggest that terrestrial species are lagging behind shifting isotherms more than marine species, which is probably related to the interplay between the wider thermal safety margin of terrestrial versus marine species and the more constrained physical environment for dispersal in terrestrial versus marine habitats.

Changes in the distribution of intertidal macroalgae along a longitudinal gradient in the northern coast of Spain

The distribution of macroalgal species along the north and northwest coast of the Iberian Peninsula is in a period of change, during which mostly cold-temperate species have decreased in cover and others have disappeared. On the other hand, other species have increased in abundance. These shifts could be related with the modification of environmental factors that determine species distribution caused by climate change. A standardised sampling methodology was applied at 18 sites along the north coast of Spain in 2011 and 2017. The relationship between the coverage of intertidal macroalgal species and abiotic variables (sea surface temperature, air temperature and significant wave height) was analysed in order to detect possible changes in the historical data. Results suggest a modification in the communities in the inner part of the Bay of Biscay, mostly related to an increase in water and air temperature. Each seaweed group (warm-temperate, cold-temperate, opportunistic and exotic species) showed a different pattern of modification. Coralline algae, Bifurcaria bifurcata and Cystoseira baccata have increased, which may be related to the warming trend. The exotic species Asparagopsis armata has also increased, particularly in the Lower Rias. On the other hand, there was a drastic decrease of the cold-temperate species Himanthalia elongata. Data obtained support the relationship of macroalgae species communities and environment in the context of climate change in this particular area.

Contrasting seasonal and spatial distribution of native and invasive Codium seaweed revealed by targeting species-specific eDNA

AIM

Codium fragile, an invasive seaweed, has spread widely during the last century, impacting on local seaweed communities through competition and disturbance. Early detection of C. fragile can help on its control and management. Environmental DNA (eDNA) has proved successful for early detection of aquatic invasive species but its potential use for seaweed remains understudied. We used a species-specific eDNA qPCR approach to investigate the spatial distribution, abundance, and coexistence of the invasive C. fragile and three native Codium species (Codium vermilara, Codium tomentosum, and Codium decorticatum) in the Cantabrian Sea.

LOCATION

Bay of Biscay, Northern Atlantic Coast of the Iberian Peninsula; two ports, a beach and a rocky cliff.

METHODS

We designed species-specific primers in barcoding regions targeting short fragments of the rbcL gene for the invasive Codium species, and the elongation factor Tu (tufA) gene for the native species, to assess their spatial and seasonal distributions using quantitative real-time PCR in samples collected during summer, autumn, and winter.

RESULTS

We found seasonal differences in the presence of the invasive Codium fragile and two of the native Codium species, but did not detect C. decorticatum at any point. Species distribution patterns produced with qPCR targeting species-specific eDNA coincided with the known distribution based on previous conventional sampling, with a seasonal alternance of C. fragile and C. vermilara, and a marked dominance of invasive C. fragile in ports, which are known hotspots for invasive species.

MAIN CONCLUSIONS

Our results demonstrate the utility of using eDNA for early detection and monitoring of invasive seaweed. Native and invasive Codium spp. displayed significant seasonal and spatial differentiation that needs to be taken into account in risk management. Regular monitoring of ports and adjacent areas using eDNA should help to assess the potential expansion of invasive Codium and the need for management interventions to avoid the displacement of native seaweed.

Seaweed assemblages under a climate change scenario: Functional responses to temperature of eight intertidal seaweeds match recent abundance shifts

Field evidence is essential to assess the consequences of climate change but a solid causal link often requires additional information obtained under controlled laboratory conditions. Additionally, the functional response to temperature may also help to discriminate species potentially more vulnerable to warming. Using a highly resolved temperature gradient, we examined the temperature dependence of photosynthesis and respiration in eight intertidal seaweeds that recently followed opposite abundance trends in NW Iberia. The temperature dependence of photosynthesis was consistently different between the macroalgae that increased and those that decreased their abundance in the last decade and a half, with photosynthesis twice more sensitive in the upward group. Unlike photosynthesis, the temperature dependence of respiration was unrelated to the abundance trend group, implying that the net metabolic scaling with temperature varied between the two groups of seaweeds. Overall, our results provide experimental support to the role of temperate as a likely driver of the changes in abundance recorded by field-monitoring studies. They also suggest that the temperature dependence of photosynthesis and respiration assessed in short-term experiments may serve as a biomarker of the potential vulnerability of some seaweed to the consequences of water warming.

Physiological responses to variations in grazing and light conditions in native and invasive fucoids

Poor physiological acclimatization to climate change has led to shifts in the distributional ranges of various species and to biodiversity loss. However, evidence also suggests the relevance of non-climatic physical factors, such as light, and biotic factors, which may act in interactive or additive way. We used a mechanistic approach to evaluate the ecophysiological responses of four seaweed species (three dominant intertidal fucoids, Fucus serratus, Ascophyllum nodosum, Bifurcaria bifurcata, and the invasive Sargassum muticum) to different conditions of grazing, light irradiance and ultraviolet (UV) radiation. We performed a large-scale mesocosm experiment with a total of 800 individual thalli of macroalgae. The factorial experimental design included major algal traits, photoacclimation, nutrient stoichiometry and chemical defence as response variables. Few significant effects of the factors acting alone or in combination were observed, suggesting a good capacity for acclimatization in all four species. The significant effects were generally additive and there were no potentially deleterious synergistic effects between factors. Fucus serratus, a species currently undergoing a drastic contraction of its southern distribution limit in Europe, was the most strongly affected species, showing overall lower photosynthetic efficiency than the other species. The growth rate of F. serratus decreased when UV radiation was filtered out, but only in the presence of grazers. Moreover, more individuals of this species tended to reach maturity in the absence of grazers, and the nitrogen content of tissues decreased under full-spectrum light. Only the phlorotannin content of tissues of B. bifurcata and of exudates of A. nodosum, both slow-growing species, were positively affected by respectively removal of UVB radiation and the presence of grazers. The findings for S. muticum, a well-established invasive seaweed across European coasts, suggested similar physiological response of this fast-growing species to different levels of grazing activity and light quality/intensity. As expected, this species grew faster than the other species. Bifurcaria bifurcata and A. nodosum only showed minor effects of light quality and grazing on phlorotannins content, which suggests good resistance of these two long-lived species to the experimental conditions. Mechanistic approaches that are designed to analyse interactive effects of physical and biotic factors provide an understanding of physiological responses of species and help to improve the confidence of predictive distribution models.

Environmental and phenotypic heterogeneity of populations at the trailing range-edge of the habitat-forming macroalga Fucus serratus

Empirical work on the dynamics of range limits of species distributions often lack replications of edge populations. We compared the local environment and performance of two groups of geographically peripheral populations of the foundation intertidal alga Fucus serratus L. at its southern range boundary in the NW Iberian Peninsula. Two populations were located on the Western Galician coast in large embayments or rias, and the other two on a Northern open coastal stretch in Lugo province. Sharp differences were detected in the local environment and performance of the two groups of populations. While recruitment was quite consistent throughout the year in rias, it was very limited and variable in Lugo. Furthermore, thalli from rias were severely damaged following their transplantation in Lugo, and poor conditions of local adult plants were detected there in subsequent years. These results suggest a higher vulnerability of Lugo populations under new climate conditions, while western rias, strongly influenced by upwelling events, feasibly act as contemporary refugia for this species. If sustained over time, these refugia may mitigate the retreat of the seaweed' rear-edge predicted by large spatial scale models.

Long-term shifts in the north western Mediterranean coastal seascape: The habitat-forming seaweed Codium vermilara

Long-term ecological studies are crucial to understand how and why natural ecosystems change over time and space. Through a revision of historical data and a comparison with current in situ field data, we contribute to the understanding of how the Mediterranean coastal seascape has changed in the last decades. Here we describe the large decrease of the main habitat-forming species Codium vermilara along the Catalan coast (NW Mediterranean). We have analyzed data on presence/absence, abundance and biomass. Since the 70s-80s, when the species reached its highest abundances, the species has totally disappeared from 45% of the revisited sites, and showed a decrease in 95% of its abundance and 97% of its biomass. Codium vermilara has also shown a reduction in its depth range, from 30 to the first 20m depth. This study highlights the importance of having historical data to detect and describe changes in ecological systems.

Decadal changes in the distribution of common intertidal seaweeds in Galicia (NW Iberia)

Seaweed assemblages in Atlantic Europe are been distorted by global change, but the intricate coastal profile of the area suggests that susceptibility may differ between regions. In particular, NW Iberia is an important omission because no study has systematically assessed long-term changes in a large number of species. Using intertidal surveys for 33 common perennial seaweeds, we show that the average number of species per site declined significantly from 1998-99 to 2014 in NW Iberia. The largest drops in site occupancy were detected in kelps, fucoids, and carrageenan-producing Rhodophyta. Parallel analyses revealed significant upward trends in SST, air temperature, and strong waves; meanwhile, nutrients decreased slightly except in areas affected by local inputs. Similar changes reported for subtidal assemblages in other parts of Atlantic Europe suggest that the drivers may be ubiquitous. Nonetheless, a more proper assessment of both global and local impacts, will require further surveys, and the regular monitoring of intertidal perennial seaweeds appears as a cost-effective alternative to discriminate genuine long-term trends from transitory fluctuations.

Genes Left Behind: Climate Change Threatens Cryptic Genetic Diversity in the Canopy-Forming Seaweed Bifurcaria bifurcata

The global redistribution of biodiversity will intensify in the coming decades of climate change, making projections of species range shifts and of associated genetic losses important components of conservation planning. Highly-structured marine species, notably brown seaweeds, often harbor unique genetic variation at warmer low-latitude rear edges and thus are of particular concern. Here, a combination of Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) and molecular data is used to forecast the potential near-future impacts of climate change for a warm-temperate, canopy forming seaweed, Bifurcaria bifurcata. ENMs for B. bifurcata were developed using marine and terrestrial climatic variables, and its range projected for 2040-50 and 2090-2100 under two greenhouse emission scenarios. Geographical patterns of genetic diversity were assessed by screening 18 populations spawning the entire distribution for two organelle genes and 6 microsatellite markers. The southern limit of B. bifurcata was predicted to shift northwards to central Morocco by the mid-century. By 2090-2100, depending on the emission scenario, it could either retreat further north to western Iberia or be relocated back to Western Sahara. At the opposing margin, B. bifurcata was predicted to expand its range to Scotland or even Norway. Microsatellite diversity and endemism were highest in Morocco, where a unique and very restricted lineage was also identified. Our results imply that B. bifurcata will maintain a relatively broad latitudinal distribution. Although its persistence is not threatened, the predicted extirpation of a unique southern lineage or even the entire Moroccan diversity hotspot will erase a rich evolutionary legacy and shrink global diversity to current (low) European levels. NW Africa and similarly understudied southern regions should receive added attention if expected range changes and diversity loss of warm-temperate species is not to occur unnoticed.

Force majeure: Will climate change affect our ability to attain Good Environmental Status for marine biodiversity?

The EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) requires that Good Environmental Status (GEnS), is achieved for European seas by 2020. These may deviate from GEnS, its 11 Descriptors, targets and baselines, due to endogenic managed pressures (from activities within an area) and externally due to exogenic unmanaged pressures (e.g. climate change). Conceptual models detail the likely or perceived changes expected on marine biodiversity and GEnS Descriptors in the light of climate change. We emphasise that marine management has to accommodate 'shifting baselines' caused by climate change particularly during GEnS monitoring, assessment and management and 'unbounded boundaries' given the migration and dispersal of highly-mobile species. We suggest climate change may prevent GEnS being met, but Member States may rebut legal challenges by claiming that this is outside its control, force majeure or due to 'natural causes' (Article 14 of the MSFD). The analysis is relevant to management of other global seas.

Combining physiological threshold knowledge to species distribution models is key to improving forecasts of the future niche for macroalgae

Species distribution models (SDM) are a useful tool for predicting species range shifts in response to global warming. However, they do not explore the mechanisms underlying biological processes, making it difficult to predict shifts outside the environmental gradient where the model was trained. In this study, we combine correlative SDMs and knowledge on physiological limits to provide more robust predictions. The thermal thresholds obtained in growth and survival experiments were used as proxies of the fundamental niches of two foundational marine macrophytes. The geographic projections of these species' distributions obtained using these thresholds and existing SDMs were similar in areas where the species are either absent-rare or frequent and where their potential and realized niches match, reaching consensus predictions. The cold-temperate foundational seaweed Himanthalia elongata was predicted to become extinct at its southern limit in northern Spain in response to global warming, whereas the occupancy of southern-lusitanic Bifurcaria bifurcata was expected to increase. Combined approaches such as this one may also highlight geographic areas where models disagree potentially due to biotic factors. Physiological thresholds alone tended to over-predict species prevalence, as they cannot identify absences in climatic conditions within the species' range of physiological tolerance or at the optima. Although SDMs tended to have higher sensitivity than threshold models, they may include regressions that do not reflect causal mechanisms, constraining their predictive power. We present a simple example of how combining correlative and mechanistic knowledge provides a rapid way to gain insight into a species' niche resulting in consistent predictions and highlighting potential sources of uncertainty in forecasted responses to climate change.

Two Streptomyces species producing antibiotic, antitumor, and anti-inflammatory compounds are widespread among intertidal macroalgae and deep-sea coral reef invertebrates from the central Cantabrian Sea

Streptomycetes are widely distributed in the marine environment, although only a few studies on their associations to algae and coral ecosystems have been reported. Using a culture-dependent approach, we have isolated antibiotic-active Streptomyces species associated to diverse intertidal marine macroalgae (Phyllum Heterokontophyta, Rhodophyta, and Chlorophyta), from the central Cantabrian Sea. Two strains, with diverse antibiotic and cytotoxic activities, were found to inhabit these coastal environments, being widespread and persistent over a 3-year observation time frame. Based on 16S rRNA sequence analysis, the strains were identified as Streptomyces cyaneofuscatus M-27 and Streptomyces carnosus M-40. Similar isolates to these two strains were also associated to corals and other invertebrates from deep-sea coral reef ecosystem (Phyllum Cnidaria, Echinodermata, Arthropoda, Sipuncula, and Anelida) living up to 4.700-m depth in the submarine Avilés Canyon, thus revealing their barotolerant feature. These two strains were also found to colonize terrestrial lichens and have been repeatedly isolated from precipitations from tropospheric clouds. Compounds with antibiotic and cytotoxic activities produced by these strains were identified by high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) and database comparison. Antitumor compounds with antibacterial activities and members of the anthracycline family (daunomycin, cosmomycin B, galtamycin B), antifungals (maltophilins), anti-inflamatory molecules also with antituberculosis properties (lobophorins) were identified in this work. Many other compounds produced by the studied strains still remain unidentified, suggesting that Streptomyces associated to algae and coral ecosystems might represent an underexplored promising source for pharmaceutical drug discovery.

Capacity for recovery of rocky subtidal assemblages following pollution abatement in a scenario of global change

The successful protection and management of marine ecosystems depend on understanding the capability of biota for recovering after stressor mitigation actions are taken. Here we present long-term changes (1984-2012) in degraded subtidal assemblages following the implementation of the sewerage scheme for the metropolitan area of Bilbao (1 million inhabitants). Qualitative and quantitative species composition of disturbed vegetation shifted over time, making it more similar to that of the reference assemblages considered. Species density in the disturbed habitats increased, which is also a positive sign of recovery. However, eleven years after the clean-up was completed, canopy-forming macrophytes showed no signs of recovery. We argue that the ecological resilience of the ecosystem may have been eroded after a long-standing pollution perturbation and that underlying climate change could be influencing the recovery trajectory of the degraded assemblages. The implications of these conclusions for the implementation of European marine environmental legislation are discussed.

Conserving biodiversity in a human-dominated world: degradation of marine sessile communities within a protected area with conflicting human uses

Conservation research aims at understanding whether present protection schemes are adequate for the maintenance of ecosystems structure and function across time. We evaluated long-term variation in rocky reef communities by comparing sites surveyed in 1993 and again in 2008. This research took place in Tigullio Gulf, an emblematic case study where various conservation measures, including a marine protected area, have been implemented to manage multiple human uses. Contrary to our prediction that protection should have favored ecosystem stability, we found that communities subjected to conservation measures (especially within the marine protected area) exhibited the greatest variation toward architectural complexity loss. Between 1993 and 2008, chronic anthropogenic pressures (especially organic load) that had already altered unprotected sites in 1993 expanded their influence into protected areas. This expansion of human pressure likely explains our observed changes in the benthic communities. Our results suggest that adaptive ecosystem-based management (EBM), that is management taking into account human interactions, informed by continuous monitoring, is needed in order to attempt reversing the current trend towards less architecturally complex communities. Protected areas are not sufficient to stop ecosystem alteration by pressures coming from outside. Monitoring, and consequent management actions, should therefore extend to cover the relevant scales of those pressures.