Record-breaking wildfires in the world's largest continuous tropical wetland: Integrative fire management is urgently needed for both biodiversity and humans

Ecological implications of the direct effects of fire on neotropical vertebrates

Changes in fire regimes have significantly impacted wildlife, affecting both mortality rates and indirect effects on fauna. Estimating the direct effects of fire on animals is complex and variable, revealing a critical knowledge gap regarding animal mortality and the consequent loss of ecosystem services. To address this gap, we conducted an analysis to identify the taxonomic groups most negatively affected by fire and to assess the ecosystem services provided by impacted mammals. We utilized a Citizen Science-based database containing photographs of animals directly affected by fire in Brazil. Our dataset includes 2638 individuals distributed across five of the six Brazilian biomes. Our results indicate that reptiles were the most affected group (59.02 %), followed by mammals (28.20 %). Among the most compromised ecosystem services are disease sentinelling, the cultural value of charismatic species, ecotourism, and seed dispersal. Additionally, we confirmed the hypothesis that small-bodied and low-mobility animals are the most vulnerable, accounting for 64.78 % of the records. Finally, we recommend strategies to mitigate the negative effects of fire on wildlife and to enhance the understanding of these impacts, such as biodiversity monitoring using genetic methodologies.

Climate, vegetation, people: disentangling the controls of fire at different timescales

Human activities have a major impact on fire regimes. Human activities that cause landscape fragmentation, such as creating roads and other infrastructure or converting areas to agriculture, tend to restrict, rather than promote, fire. The human influence is complex, however, and the impact of fragmentation on the fire regime depends on climate and vegetation conditions. Climate-induced changes in vegetation and fuel loads also affect the natural fire regime in ways independent of human influence. Disentangling the controls of fire regimes is challenging because of the multiple interactions between climate, vegetation, people and fire, and the different timescales over which they operate. We explore these relationships, drawing on statistical and modelling analyses of palaeoenvironmental, historical and recent observations at regional to global scales. We show how these relationships have changed through time and how they vary spatially as a function of environmental and biotic gradients. Specifically, we show that climate and climate-driven changes in vegetation have been the most important drivers of changing fire regimes at least until the Industrial Revolution. Statistical and modelling analyses show no discernible impact of hunter-gatherer communities, and even the time-transgressive introduction of agriculture during the Neolithic had no impact on fire regimes at a regional scale. The post-industrial expansion of agriculture was an important influence on fires, but since the late 19th century, the overwhelming influence of humans has been to reduce fire through progressive landscape fragmentation rather than through influencing ignitions. Model projections suggest that the reduction of fire through fragmentation will be outweighed by climatically driven increases by the end of the 21st century.This article is part of the theme issue 'Novel fire regimes under climate changes and human influences: impacts, ecosystem responses and feedbacks'.

Spatiotemporal analysis of wildfires and their relationship with climate and land use in the Gran Chaco and Pantanal ecoregions

The Gran Chaco and Pantanal ecoregions are the largest remaining dry forest areas in South America. Supporting diverse savanna, woodland and wetland ecosystems, these ecoregions are experiencing rapid changes in land use and fire occurrence with implications for ecosystem integrity. Our study characterizes the spatiotemporal patterns of wildfires in the Gran Chaco and Pantanal, and then examines the relationship between patterns of fire occurrence and climatic and anthropogenic drivers. We evaluated fire data of the last two decades (2001-2020) using the MODIS Collection 6.1 and the Global Fire Atlas products. Results of the fire pattern characterization were then used to model the probability of fire occurrence across each ecoregion (Random Forest, Generalized Linear Model, and Generalized Additive Model). Our results indicated that most of the total burned area belonged to the Humid Chaco, while the largest individual burned areas were mainly observed in the Pantanal. Fires primarily occurred during the dry season, with the majority of burned areas recorded during this period. Findings from the three modelling approaches consistently illustrated the spatial distribution of fire occurrence, depicting a declining probability of fire occurrence from East to West. All models underscored the importance of three variables to predict fire occurrence: temperature, livestock abundance and forest cover. Fire occurrence increased with increasing maximum temperatures and livestock presence and decreased with tree cover. This research helps to clarify the potential consequences of changes in land use, rainfall regime and temperature, and uncontrolled burning practices on the current fire activity in the Gran Chaco and Pantanal ecoregions. Understanding the spatiotemporal patterns of fire occurrence and their relationship with climatic, environmental and anthropogenic drivers can help to design more effective management strategies to mitigate fire impacts and to preserve the ecological integrity of these highly diverse regions.

Wildfire-sourced fine particulate matter and preterm birth risks in Brazil: A nationwide population-based cohort study

Wildfire-specific particulate matter with diameters ≤ 2.5 µm (PM2.5) is the key component of wildfire smoke, with potentially higher toxicity than PM2.5 from other sources. In this nationwide population-based cohort study, we included 22,163,195 births from Brazil during 20102019. Daily wildfire-specific PM2.5 was estimated through the chemical transport model. Time-varying Cox proportional hazards models were used to characterize the exposure-time-response (E-T-R) relationship between weekly wildfire-specific PM2.5 exposure and preterm birth (PTB) risks, followed by subgroup analyses. A 10 µg/m3 increment in wildfire-specific PM2.5 was associated with a hazard ratio of 1.047 (95 % confidence interval [CI]: 1.032-1.063) for PTB. Stronger associations between wildfire-specific PM2.5 and PTB were observed during earlier pregnancy, among female infants, and pregnant women < 18 years old, in ethnic minorities, with a length of education ≥ 11 years, from low-income or high-temperature municipalities, and residing in North/Northeast regions. An estimated 1.47 % (95 % CI: 1.01 %1.94 %) of PTBs were attributable to wildfire-specific PM2.5 in Brazil, increasing from 2010 to 2019. The PTBs attributable to wildfire-specific PM2.5 surpassed those attributed to non-wildfire PM2.5 (0.31 %, 95% CI: 0.09 %0.57 %). Wildfire emerged as a critical source contributing to the PM2.5-linked PTBs. Prioritized fire management and emission control strategies are warranted for PTB prevention.

Future fire-smoke PM2.5 health burden under climate change in Paraguay

Recent years have seen a rise in wildfire and extreme weather activity across the globe, which is projected to keep increasing with climate-induced conditions. Air pollution, especially fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentration, is heavily affected by PM2.5 emissions from wildfire activity. Paraguay has been historically suffering from fires, with an average of 2.3 million hectares burnt per year during the 2003-2021 period. Annual PM2.5 concentration in Paraguay is 13.2 μg/m3, more than double the recommended by the WHO. We estimate that, historically, almost 40 % of fine air particulates can be attributed to fires. Using a random forest algorithm, we estimate future fire activity and fire related PM2.5 under different climate change scenarios. With global warming, we calculate that fire activity could increase by up to 120 % by 2100. Annual fire smoke PM2.5 from fires is expected to increase by 7.7 μg/m3 by 2100. Under these conditions, Paraguay is expected to suffer an increase in 3500 deaths per year attributable to fire smoke PM2.5 by 2100. We estimate the economic cost of fire smoke-related mortality by 2100 at US $ 5600 million, equivalent to 2.6 % of Paraguay's GDP, excluding other health- and productivity-related impacts on society.

Irrigation dams threaten Brazilian biodiversity

Brazil is among the main contributors to global biodiversity, which, in turn, provides extensive ecosystem services. Agriculture is an activity that benefits greatly from these ecosystem services, but at the same time is degrading aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems and eroding Brazilian biodiversity. This conflict is growing, as emerging unsustainable legislative proposals that will benefit the agricultural sector are likely to accelerate the decline of biodiversity. One such initiative (Bill 1282/2019) would change Brazil's "Forest Code" (Law 12,651/2012) to facilitate construction of irrigation dams in Permanent Preservation Areas, a category that includes strips (with or without vegetation) along the edges of watercourses. Two other similar bills are advancing through committees in the Chamber of Deputies. Here we provide details of these three bills and discuss their consequences for Brazil's biodiversity if they are approved. Expected negative impacts with changes in the legislation include: increased deforestation; siltation; habitat fragmentation; introduction of non-native species; reduction in the availability of aquatic habitats; and changes in biogeochemical process. These proposals jeopardize biodiversity and may compromise the negotiations for an agreement between Mercosur and the European Union.

Impacts of fire and prospects for recovery in a tropical peat forest ecosystem

Uncontrolled fires place considerable burdens on forest ecosystems, compromising our ability to meet conservation and restoration goals. A poor understanding of the impacts of fire on ecosystems and their biodiversity exacerbates this challenge, particularly in tropical regions where few studies have applied consistent analytical techniques to examine a broad range of ecological impacts over multiyear time frames. We compiled 16 y of data on ecosystem properties (17 variables) and biodiversity (21 variables) from a tropical peatland in Indonesia to assess fire impacts and infer the potential for recovery. Burned forest experienced altered structural and microclimatic conditions, resulting in a proliferation of nonforest vegetation and erosion of forest ecosystem properties and biodiversity. Compared to unburned forest, habitat structure, tree density, and canopy cover deteriorated by 58 to 98%, while declines in species diversity and abundance were most pronounced for trees, damselflies, and butterflies, particularly for forest specialist species. Tracking ecosystem property and biodiversity datasets over time revealed most to be sensitive to recurrent high-intensity fires within the wider landscape. These megafires immediately compromised water quality and tree reproductive phenology, crashing commercially valuable fish populations within 3 mo and driving a gradual decline in threatened vertebrates over 9 mo. Burned forest remained structurally compromised long after a burn event, but vegetation showed some signs of recovery over a 12-y period. Our findings demonstrate that, if left uncontrolled, fire may be a pervasive threat to the ecological functioning of tropical forests, underscoring the importance of fire prevention and long-term restoration efforts, as exemplified in Indonesia.

Wildfire-related PM2.5 and cardiovascular mortality: A difference-in-differences analysis in Brazil

Brazil has experienced unprecedented wildfires recently. We aimed to investigate the association of wildfire-related fine particulate matter (PM2.5) with cause-specific cardiovascular mortality, and to estimate the attributable mortality burden. Exposure to wildfire-related PM2.5 was defined as exposure to annual mean wildfire-related PM2.5 concentrations in the 1-year prior to death. The variant difference-in-differences method was employed to explore the wildfire-related PM2.5-cardiovascular mortality association. We found that, in Brazil, compared with the population in the first quartile (Q1: ≤1.82 μg/m3) of wildfire-related PM2.5 exposure, those in the fourth quartile (Q4: 4.22-17.12 μg/m3) of wildfire-related PM2.5 exposure had a 2.2% (RR: 1.022, 95% CI: 1.013-1.032) higher risk for total cardiovascular mortality, 3.1% (RR: 1.031, 95% CI: 1.014-1.048) for ischaemic heart disease mortality, and 2.0% (RR: 1.020, 95% CI: 1.002-1.038) for stroke mortality. From 2010 to 2018, an estimation of 35,847 (95% CI: 22,424-49,177) cardiovascular deaths, representing 17.77 (95% CI: 11.12-24.38) per 100,000 population, were attributable to wildfire-related PM2.5 exposure. Targeted health promotion strategies should be developed for local governments to protect the public from the risk of wildfire-related cardiovascular premature deaths.

Health of Holochilus chacarius (Rodentia: Cricetidae) in rice agroecosystem in a neotropical wetland assessed by histopathology

Small mammals have a short lifetime and are strictly associated with their environment. This work aimed to use histopathology to assess the health of Holochilus chacarius in a rice agroecosystem in the Pantanal of Mato Grosso do Sul. During necropsy, fragments of the lung, kidney, skin, liver, and reproductive system of 33 animals were collected and submitted to histological processing. Tissue damages were evaluated as mild, moderate, and severe and arranged in a matrix for further statistical analysis. Furthermore, we used generalized linear models to verify the influence of tissue changes on the body condition, obtained by a regression between body mass and length. In the lungs, we found an intense inflammatory infiltrate associated with anthracosis that had a negative influence on the body's condition. Also, we observed degenerative and inflammatory changes in the liver, kidneys, skin, and reproductive system that ranged from mild to moderate. The histopathological lesions observed in this study may be associated with environmental alterations of anthropic origin such as the exposure to soot from wildfires and heavy metals, evidenced by lesions in the lung, kidney, and liver. The present study provided a histopathological matrix as a new approach that allows to classify and quantify the tissue alterations. Tissue changes when associated with body condition demonstrated to be an effective tool to assess the health of small free-living mammals, showing that these animals can be used as bioindicators of environmental condition.

Neotropical mammal responses to megafires in the Brazilian Pantanal

The increasing frequency and severity of human-caused fires likely have deleterious effects on species distribution and persistence. In 2020, megafires in the Brazilian Pantanal burned 43% of the biome's unburned area and resulted in mass mortality of wildlife. We investigated changes in habitat use or occupancy for an assemblage of eight mammal species in Serra do Amolar, Brazil, following the 2020 fires using a pre- and post-fire camera trap dataset. Additionally, we estimated the density for two naturally marked species, jaguars Panthera onca and ocelots Leopardus pardalis. Of the eight species, six (ocelots, collared peccaries Dicotyles tajacu, giant armadillos Priodontes maximus, Azara's agouti Dasyprocta azarae, red brocket deer Mazama americana, and tapirs Tapirus terrestris) had declining occupancy following fires, and one had stable habitat use (pumas Puma concolor). Giant armadillo experienced the most precipitous decline in occupancy from 0.431 ± 0.171 to 0.077 ± 0.044 after the fires. Jaguars were the only species with increasing habitat use, from 0.393 ± 0.127 to 0.753 ± 0.085. Jaguar density remained stable across years (2.8 ± 1.3, 3.7 ± 1.3, 2.6 ± 0.85/100 km2), while ocelot density increased from 13.9 ± 3.2 to 16.1 ± 5.2/100 km2. However, the low number of both jaguars and ocelots recaptured after the fire period suggests that immigration may have sustained the population. Our results indicate that the megafires will have significant consequences for species occupancy and fitness in fire-affected areas. The scale of megafires may inhibit successful recolonization, thus wider studies are needed to investigate population trends.

Facing the flames: insect responses to megafires and changing fire regimes

The rise of megafires and extreme fire behaviors poses a significant threat to insect populations, affecting their survival and postfire recolonization. Megafires threaten the entire insect communities by changing fire regimes and habitats. These fires are now burning non-fire-prone ecosystems, endangering non-fire-adapted insects and habitats. While implementing prescribed burn programs can reduce the chances of megafires from developing, some megafires will be unpreventable. Land managers can mitigate the fire impacts by creating refugia and promoting heterogeneity in burn severity through fire control measures. Last, these post-megafire landscapes can provide an opportunity to restore historical fire regimes through subsequent prescribed burn management. This will revitalize ecosystems, benefit insects, and reduce the likelihood of future megafires and subsequent insect loss.

Unraveling the adaptive chemical traits of Rhamnidium elaeocarpum Reissek in response to fire in pantanal wetlands

We conducted a study on the effects of fire on Rhamnidium elaeocarpum, a widely distributed woody species found in the Pantanal wetlands, using LC-MS metabolomics, total phenolic and tannin content analysis, and thermogravimetric behavior. We sampled individuals from four groups: No Fire, Fire 2019, Fire 2020, and APD 20 (individuals whose aerial parts had died during the 2020 fire event). We found that recent fires had no significant impact on the species' phenolic metabolism except for those in the fourth group. These specimens showed a decline in secondary metabolites due to leaching. The high levels of phenolics in R. elaeocarpum suggest that this species has a biochemical tolerance to the stress caused by seasonal fires. Metabolomic profiling revealed the presence of proanthocyanidin oligomers, which protect against oxidative stress and post-fire environmental disturbances. However, the passage of fire also led to a high incidence of toxic karwinaphthopyranone derivatives, which could be a concern for the species' medicinal use. Finally, the thermogravimetric analysis showed that the species is thermotolerant, with an intrinsic relationship between the secondary compounds and thermotolerance. Our research has deepened the comprehension of how fire affects the metabolic processes of woody plants. The challenge now lies in determining if the identified chemical changes are adaptive characteristics that evolved over time or merely transient responses to external environmental stimuli.

Perceptions about massive environmental impacts: a Brazilian study case

The year 2019 brought three such impacts of high socio-environmental proportions in Brazil: the dam collapse in Brumadinho, oil spills on the coast, and fires in the Amazon. We investigated the Brazilian population's perceptions of the country's overall environmental situation, the degree to which Brazilians felt affected by these impacts considering personal and social factors, and the entities they held responsible for these disasters. Through Facebook's social media networks, we disseminated structured online surveys for Brazilian citizens above 18 years. Educational background explained how much the 775 respondents felt affected by the three evaluated events. Age was an explanatory factor for the degree to which the respondents felt affected by the dam collapse, and proximity to the disasters, while income levels were for the dam collapse and the fires in the Amazon. The government, criminal activity, and private companies were considered to be the main responsible for these three impacts. This perception reflects the series of changes in the country's environmental laws and protections that threaten biodiversity and the environment.

Flowering and fruiting show phenological complementarity in both trees and non-trees in mosaic-burnt floodable savanna

The homogenization of fire regimes in a landscape may imply a temporal reduction in the availability of resources, such as flowers and fruits, which affect the fauna, as well as ecosystem services. We hypothesized that maintaining mosaic burning regimes, and thereby pyrodiversity, can diversify phenological patterns, ensuring year-round availability of flowers and fruits. Here we monitored open grassy tropical savanna phenology under different historical fire frequencies and fire seasons in a highly heterogeneous landscape in an Indigenous Territory in Brazil. We evaluated phenological patterns of tree and non-tree plants through monthly surveys over three years. These two life forms responded differently to climate and photoperiod variables and to fire. Different fire regimes led to a continuous availability of flowers and fruits, due to the complementarity between tree and non-tree phenologies. Late-season fires are supposed to be more devastating, but we did not detect a significant reduction in flower and fruit production, especially under moderate fire frequency. However, late burning in patches under high frequency resulted in a low availability of ripe fruits in trees. The fruiting of non-tree plants in patches under low fire frequency and early burning ensure ripe fruit, when there are practically no trees fruiting in the entire landscape. We conclude that maintaining a seasonal fire mosaic should be prioritized over historical fire regimes, which lead to homogenization. Fire management is best conducted between the end of the rainy season and the beginning of the dry season, when the risk of burning fertile plants is lower.

Posts Supporting Anti-Environmental Policy in Brazil are Shared More on Social Media

Weakening environmental laws supported by disinformation are currently of concern in Brazil. An example of disinformation is the case of the "firefighter cattle". Supporters of this idea believe that by consuming organic mass, cattle decrease the risk of fire in natural ecosystems. This statement was cited by a member of the Bolsonaro government in response to the unprecedented 2020 fires in the Pantanal, as well as in support of a new law that enables extensive livestock in protected areas of this biome. By suggesting that grazing benefits the ecosystem, the "firefighter cattle" argument supports the interests of agribusiness. However, it ignores the real costs of livestock production on biodiversity. We analysed the social repercussion of the "firefighter cattle" by analysing public reactions to YouTube, Facebook, and Google News posts. These videos and articles and the responses to them either agreed or disagreed with the "firefighter cattle". Supportive posts were shared more on social media and triggered more interactions than critical posts. Even though many netizens disagreed with the idea of "firefighter cattle", it has gone viral, and was used as a tool to strengthen anti-environmental policies. We advocate that government institutions should use resources and guidelines provided by the scientific community to raise awareness. These materials include international reports produced by the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). We need to curb pseudoscience and misinformation in political discourse, avoiding misconceptions that threaten natural resources and confuse global society.

Heatwaves and fire in Pantanal: Historical and future perspectives from CORDEX-CORE

The Pantanal biome, at the confluence of Brazil, Bolivia and Paraguay, is the largest continental wetland on the planet and an invaluable reserve of biodiversity. The exceptional 2020 fire season in Pantanal drew particular attention due to the severe wildfires and the catastrophic natural and socio-economic impacts witnessed within the biome. So far, little progress has been made in order to better understand the influence of climate extremes on fire occurrence in Pantanal. Here, we evaluate how extreme hot conditions, through heatwave events, are related to the occurrence and the exacerbation of fires in this region. A historical analysis using a statistical regression model found that heatwaves during the dry season explained 82% of the interannual variability of burned area during the fire season. In a future perspective, an ensemble of CORDEX-CORE simulations assuming different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5), reveal a significant increasing trend in heatwave occurrence over Pantanal. Compared to historical levels, the RCP2.6 scenario leads to more than a doubling in the Pantanal heatwave incidence during the dry season by the second half of the 21st century, followed by a plateauing. Alternatively, RCP8.5 projects a steady increase of heatwave incidence until the end of the century, pointing to a very severe scenario in which heatwave conditions would be observed nearly over all the Pantanal area and during practically all the days of the dry season. Accordingly, favorable conditions for fire spread and consequent large burned areas are expected to occur more often in the future, posing a dramatic short-term threat to the ecosystem if no preservation action is undertaken.

Human risk assessment of ash soil after 2020 wildfires in Pantanal biome (Brazil)

Wildfires have increased in the last years and, when caused by intentional illegal burnings, are frequently run out of control. Wildfire has been pointed out as an important source of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and trace elements (TEs) — such as, As, Ni, and Pb — to environmental compartments, and thus may pose a risk to human health and to the ecosystem. In 2020, the Brazilian biome, Pantanal, faced the largest losses by wildfires in the last 22 years. Ashes from the topsoil layer in Pantanal were collected after these wildfires at 20 sites divided into the sediment, forest, PF, PS, and degraded sites. Toxicity and associated risks for human health were also evaluated. The areas highly impacted by wildfires and by artisanal gold mining activities showed higher concentrations for TEs and PAHs than the protected areas. Pb varied from 8 ± 4 to 224 ± 81 mg kg⁻¹, and total PAH concentration ranged between 880 ± 314 and 1350 ± 70 ng g⁻¹, at sites impacted by anthropogenic activities. Moreover, health risk assessments for TE and PAH indicated a potentially great risk for children and adults, via ingestion, inhalation, and dermal pathway. The carcinogenic risks exceeded reference values, for both TE and PAH, suggesting harmful conditions, especially for vulnerable groups, such as children and the elderly.

Drought-heatwave nexus in Brazil and related impacts on health and fires: A comprehensive review

Climate change is drastically altering the frequency, duration, and severity of compound drought-heatwave (CDHW) episodes, which present a new challenge in environmental and socioeconomic sectors. These threats are of particular importance in low-income regions with growing populations, fragile infrastructure, and threatened ecosystems. This review synthesizes emerging progress in the understanding of CDHW patterns in Brazil while providing insights about the impacts on fire occurrence and public health. Evidence is mounting that heatwaves are becoming increasingly linked with droughts in northeastern and southeastern Brazil, the Amazonia, and the Pantanal. In those regions, recent studies have begun to build a better understanding of the physical mechanisms behind CDHW events, such as the soil moisture-atmosphere coupling, promoted by exceptional atmospheric blocking conditions. Results hint at a synergy between CDHW events and high fire activity in the country over the last decades, with the most recent example being the catastrophic 2020 fires in the Pantanal. Moreover, we show that HWs were responsible for increasing mortality and preterm births during record-breaking droughts in southeastern Brazil. This work paves the way for a more in-depth understanding on CDHW events and their impacts, which is crucial to enhance the adaptive capacity of different Brazilian sectors.

Increased burned area in the Pantanal over the past two decades

Wildfires are behaving differently now compared to other time in history in relation to frequency, intensity and affected ecosystems. In Brazil, unprecedented fires are being experienced in the last decade. Thus, to prevent and minimize similar disasters, we must better understand the natural and human drivers of such extreme events. The Brazilian Pantanal is the largest contiguous wetland in the world and a complex environmental system. In 2020, Pantanal experienced catastrophic wildfires due to the synergy between climate, inadequate fire management strategies and weak environmental regulations. In this study, we analyzed recent patterns and changes in fire behavior across the Pantanal based on land use and cover (LULC) classes. The inter-annual variability of the fire and land cover changes between 2000 and 2021 was assessed using BA from MCD64A1 V.6 product and LULC data from Landsat satellite. Our work reveals that fires in the Pantanal over the last two decades tended to occur more frequently in grassland than in others land cover types, but the 2020 fires have preferentially burned forest regions. Large fire patches are more frequent in forest and grasslands; in contrast, croplands exhibit small patches. The results highlight that a broad scale analysis does not reflect distinct localized patterns, thus stratified and refined studies are required. Our work contributes as a first step to disentangling the role of anthropogenic-related drivers, namely LULC changes, in shaping the fire regime in the Pantanal biome. This is crucial not only to predict future fire activity but also to guide appropriated fire management in the region.

Atmospheric Formaldehyde Monitored by TROPOMI Satellite Instrument throughout 2020 over São Paulo State, Brazil

We aimed to study the daily formaldehyde (HCHO) columns over urban and forested areas in São Paulo State, Brazil, from rhe TROPOMI spectrometer onboard the Sentinel-5P satellite during 2020. Nineteen specific areas were defined in four regions: 3 areas in each of two preserved Atlantic Forests (PEMD and PETAR), 3 in a sugarcane growing region (NERG) and 10 in the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo (MASP), among which 2 areas are in the Morro Grande reserve, which is a significant remnant of Atlantic Forest outside the densely urbanized area of MASP. An analysis of variance and Tukey’s test showed that the mean annual columns over the Morro Grande reserve (1.69±1.05×10−4 mol/m² and 1.73±1.07×10−4 mol/m²) presented greater statistical similarity with the forest and rural areas of the state (<1.70×10−4 mol/m²) than with MASP (>2.00×10−4 mol/m²), indicating few effects from megacity anthropogenic emissions. Case studies addressing selected days in 2020 showed that fires in and around the state were related to episodes of maximum density of HCHO columns. The results showed significant seasonality, with lower concentrations during summer (wet season) and higher concentrations during winter and spring (dry and transition dry–wet seasons).

Mapping Fire Susceptibility in the Brazilian Amazon Forests Using Multitemporal Remote Sensing and Time-Varying Unsupervised Anomaly Detection

The economic and environmental impacts of wildfires have leveraged the development of new technologies to prevent and reduce the occurrence of these devastating events. Indeed, identifying and mapping fire-susceptible areas arise as critical tasks, not only to pave the way for rapid responses to attenuate the fire spreading, but also to support emergency evacuation plans for the families affected by fire-related tragedies. Aiming at simultaneously mapping and measuring the risk of fires in the forest areas of Brazil’s Amazon, in this paper we combine multitemporal remote sensing, derivative spectral indices, and anomaly detection into a fully unsupervised methodology. We focus our analysis on recent forest fire events that occurred in the Brazilian Amazon by exploring multitemporal images acquired by both Landsat-8 Operational Land Imager and Modis sensors. We experimentally confirm that the current methodology is capable of predicting fire outbreaks immediately at posterior instants, which attests to the operational performance and applicability of our approach to preventing and mitigating the impact of fires in Brazilian forest regions.

Lightning patterns in the Pantanal: Untangling natural and anthropogenic-induced wildfires

The identification of fire causes and characteristics is of fundamental importance to better understand fire regimes and drivers. Particularly for Brazil, there is a gap in the quantification of lightning-caused fires. Accordingly, this work is a novel probabilistic assessment of the spatial-temporal patterns of lightning-ignited wildfires in the Pantanal wetland. Here, remote sensing information such as VIIRS active fires, MODIS burned area (BA) and STARNET lightning observations from 2012 to 2017, were combined to estimate the location, number of scars and amount of BA associated with atmospheric discharges on a seasonal basis. The highest lightning activity occurs during summer (December-February), and the lowest during winter (June-August). Conversely, the highest fire activity occurred during spring (September-November) and the lowest during autumn (March-May). Our analysis revealed low evidence of an association between fires and lightning, suggesting that human-related activities are the main source of ignitions. Weak evidence of natural-caused fire occurrence is conveyed by the low spatial-temporal match of lightning and fire throughout the studied period. Natural-caused fires accounted for only 5% of the annual total scars and 83.8% of the BA was human-caused. Most of the fires with extension larger than 1000 ha were not related to lighting. Lightning-fires seem an important element of the summer fire regime given that around half of the total BA during this season may be originated by lightning. By contrast, in the rest of the year the lightning-fires represent a minor percentage of the fire activity in the region. The density of lightning-ignited fires varies considerably, being higher in the north part of the Pantanal. This work provides a basis for a better understanding of lightning-related fire outbreaks in tropical ecosystems, particularly wetlands, which is fundamental to improve region-based strategies for land management actions, ecological studies and modeling climatic and anthropogenic drivers of wildfires.

Changes in land use enhance the sensitivity of tropical ecosystems to fire-climate extremes

The Pantanal, the largest contiguous wetland in the world with a high diversity of ecosystems and habitat for several endangered species, was impacted by record-breaking wildfires in 2020. In this study, we integrate satellite and modeling data that enable exploration of natural and human contributing factors to the unprecedented 2020 fires. We demonstrate that the fires were fueled by an exceptional multi-year drought, but dry conditions solely could not explain the spatial patterns of burning. Our analysis reveals how human-caused fires exacerbated drought effects on natural ecosystem within the Pantanal, with large burned fractions primarily over natural (52%), and low cattle density areas (44%) in 2020. The post-fire ecosystem and hydrology changes also had strong ecological effects, with vegetation productivity less than − 1.5 σ over more than 30% of the natural and conservation areas. In contrast to more managed areas, there was a clear decrease in evaporation (by ~ 9%) and an increase in runoff (by ~ 5%) over the natural areas, with long-term impacts on ecosystem recovery and fire risk. This study provides the first tropical evidence outside rainforests of the synergy between climate, land management and fires, and the associated impacts on the ecosystem and hydrology over the largest contiguous wetlands in the world.

Natural history museums and zoological collections of São Paulo State

Abstract Scientific collections constitute a valuable source for contributions to scientific research and the training of human resources in systematics, but also other areas of biological knowledge. In this contribution, we intend to discuss these advancements in collections and the role played by FAPESP in sponsoring them, as well as a general overview of the zoological collections in São Paulo state. We also aim to stress the importance of zoological collections and the need for continuous logistic and financial support from institutions and research agencies to maintain and develop these unique repositories of biodiversity. From 1980 to the present, FAPESP supported 118 research projects focused on several areas of zoology that are directly or indirectly associated with collections. There is a constant growth in the number of projects, and the financial support provided by FAPESP through the Biota Program was paramount for the advancement of our knowledge of biodiversity in Brazil. Parallel to the scientific advances, but not less important, this support allowed curators to increase the number of specimens, and to organize, maintain and digitize them in these valuable and irreplaceable collections. Regarding the lack of new taxonomists, it is essential that FAPESP and universities in São Paulo encourage the formation of new academics in zoological groups where specialists are rare. Considering the investment provided by FAPESP, it is quite important that the institutions that benefited from these resources took greater responsibility to safeguard these collections, and they should consider including resources on their budgets to obtain safety certificates, ensuring their permanence for many generations to come. Zoological collections are a heritage of humanity and are essential not only for the improvement of our knowledge of biodiversity but also with direct applications, among other services provided by these biological resources. It is important that research and teaching institutions in São Paulo that house specimens under their care start to value more this important patrimony and this heritage, as these collections represent the most valuable testimony of our impressive biodiversity, records of our past, and windows to our future, essential to our academic, scientific, cultural and social sovereignty.

Distance sampling surveys reveal 17 million vertebrates directly killed by the 2020's wildfires in the Pantanal, Brazil

Anthropogenic factors have significantly influenced the frequency, duration, and intensity of meteorological drought in many regions of the globe, and the increased frequency of wildfires is among the most visible consequences of human-induced climate change. Despite the fire role in determining biodiversity outcomes in different ecosystems, wildfires can cause negative impacts on wildlife. We conducted ground surveys along line transects to estimate the first-order impact of the 2020 wildfires on vertebrates in the Pantanal wetland, Brazil. We adopted the distance sampling technique to estimate the densities and the number of dead vertebrates in the 39,030 square kilometers affected by fire. Our estimates indicate that at least 16.952 million vertebrates were killed immediately by the fires in the Pantanal, demonstrating the impact of such an event in wet savanna ecosystems. The Pantanal case also reminds us that the cumulative impact of widespread burning would be catastrophic, as fire recurrence may lead to the impoverishment of ecosystems and the disruption of their functioning. To overcome this unsustainable scenario, it is necessary to establish proper biomass fuel management to avoid cumulative impacts caused by fire over biodiversity and ecosystem services.

Fires dynamics in the Pantanal: Impacts of anthropogenic activities and climate change

Anthropogenic activities responsible for modifying climatic regimes and land use and land cover (LULC) have been altering fire behavior even in regions with natural occurrences, such as the Pantanal. This biome was highlighted in 2020 due to the record number of fire foci and burned areas registered. Thus, this study aimed to understand how changes in LULC and climate affect the spatial, temporal and magnitude dynamics of fire foci. The Earth Trends Modeler (ETM) was used to identify trends in spatiotemporal bases of environmental and climatic variables. No trend was identified in the historical series of precipitation data. However, an increasing trend was observed for evapotranspiration, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and temperature. For soil moisture, a decreasing trend was observed. The comparison between the mean of the historical series and the year 2020 showed that the variables precipitation, temperature, soil moisture and evapotranspiration had atypical behavior. Such behavior may have contributed to creating a drier environment with available combustible material, leading to a record number of burned areas, about three million hectares (248%) higher than the historical average. The 2020 fire foci data were used in two types of spatial statistical analyses: Grouping, showing that 76% of the registered fire foci were at high risk of fire and; Hot and Cold Spots, indicating high concentrations of Hot Spots in the northern region of the Pantanal, close to Cerrado and Amazon biomes agricultural frontier. The results of the Land Change Modeler (LCM) tool evidenced a strong transition potential from the natural vegetation to agriculture and pasture in the eastern region of the Pantanal, indicating that this could be, in the future, a region of high concentration of fire foci and possibly high risk of fire. This tool also allowed the prediction of a scenario for 2030 that showed that if measures for environmental protection and combating fires are not adopted, in this year, 20% of the Pantanal areas will be for agricultural and pasture use. Finally, the results suggest that the advance of agriculture in the Pantanal and changes in climatic and environmental variables boosted the increase in fire foci and burned areas in the year 2020.

Reconciling biome-wide conservation of an apex carnivore with land-use economics in the increasingly threatened Pantanal wetlands

Conservation of carnivores involves finding solutions to minimize habitat loss and human-wildlife conflict. Understanding the nature of land-use economics can allow us to mitigate both threats. In the Pantanal, the two main economic activities are cattle ranching and ecotourism, each of which directly and indirectly affect the persistence of jaguars (Panthera onca). To understand how the geography of these economic activities is related to jaguar populations, we developed a jaguar distribution model (JDM), livestock density model, and ecotourism lodge density model for the Pantanal. Due to the recent wildfires within the Pantanal, we also assess the impact of burnt areas that are suitable for jaguars, cattle ranching, and tourism. Our JDM indicate that 64% of the Pantanal holds suitable habitat for jaguars. However, jaguar habitat suitability was positively correlated with ecotourism, but negatively correlated with areas most suitable for intensive cattle-ranching. This demonstrates a biome-wide scenario compatible with jaguar conservation. Of particular concern, recent wildfires overlap most suitable areas for jaguars. If wildfires become increasingly frequent, this would represent a serious threat to jaguars and many other wildlife populations. We emphasize the global importance of the Pantanal wetland ecoregion as a key stronghold for long-term jaguar conservation.

The Pantanal under Siege—On the Origin, Dynamics and Forecast of the Megadrought Severely Affecting the Largest Wetland in the World

The Pantanal is the largest wetland of the world and one of the most important biodiversity hotspots in South America. An unprecedented ongoing megadrought is severely affecting its ecological functioning, flood pulse dynamics, and fire regime. Regarding this problematic, the present study generates reliable information about the following key issues: 1—Evolution and dynamics, 2—Origin and determinants, and 3—Forecast based on identified determinants and current trends. Results show that the evolution of the megadrought has been differentiable in both, space and time. As for its origin and determinants, Climate Change was ratified as one of the most important threats to the Pantanal, and to vast areas of South America, since a strong correlation was identified between megadrought’s dynamics and the occurrence of intense marine heatwaves at Northern Hemisphere oceanic waters, and more specifically, at the Northeast Pacific. Results also show that the megadrought is expected to continue at both the Pantanal and the surrounding Highlands, at least until December 2023. Thus, an intensification of fires risk, extending now to areas historically flooded or perhumid should be expected, concomitantly to a very negative impact on non-fire-resistant vegetation cover, as well as ecosystem functioning and biodiversity, perhaps even worse than those from 2020, widely covered by the international media.