Prognostic models including the Child-Pugh, MELD and Mayo risk scores--where are we and where should we go?

Association between lactate-to-albumin ratio and all-cause mortality in cirrhosis patients: Analysis of the MIMIC-IV database

OBJECTIVE

This study evaluates the predictive value of the lactate/albumin ratio (LAR) for all-cause mortality in cirrhosis patients.

DESIGN

Retrospective observational study.

SETTING

Intensive care unit (ICU).

PATIENTS OR PARTICIPANTS

626 first-time ICU-admitted cirrhosis patients in the USA (MIMIC-IV v2.2).

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MAIN VARIABLES OF INTEREST

LAR index, 28-day, and 90-day all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

Of 626 patients (60.86% male), 27.80% and 39.14% died within 28 and 90 days, respectively. Multivariate Cox analysis showed a significant association between higher LAR and mortality. Adjusted for confounders, elevated LAR increased the 28-day mortality risk [HR: 1.31 (1.21-1.42), P < 0.001]. A restricted cubic spline analysis revealed non-linear relationships between LAR and mortality. For 28-day mortality, the inflection point was 1.583: below this, HR was 2.29 (95% CI: 1.61-3.27, P < 0.001); above, HR was 1.16 (95% CI: 1.02-1.31, P = 0.021; P = 0.002). For 90-day mortality, the inflection point was 1.423: below, HR was 1.60 (95% CI: 1.04-2.47, P = 0.033); above, HR was 0.94 (95% CI: 0.75-1.16, P = 0.542; P = 0.012).

CONCLUSIONS

LAR predicts 28-day and 90-day mortality with a segmented effect. An LAR ≥1.583 signals high 28-day mortality risk, necessitating intensified monitoring and potential ICU admission. For 90-day mortality, LAR near 1.423 serves as an early warning for high-risk patients and guides interventions. Continuous LAR monitoring aids management, but prospective studies are needed to confirm clinical utility.

Optic nerve sheath diameters predict mortality and severity in hepatic encephalopathy

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to compare the predictive power of optic nerve sheath diameter (ONSD) measured by brain computed tomography (CT) in patients diagnosed with hepatic encephalopathy (HE) in the emergency department, with other factors for mortality and disease severity.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A total of 217 patients aged 18 years and older with acute decompensation of cirrhosis diagnosed with HE in the emergency department were included in the study. To compare with patients diagnosed with HE, a total of 217 individuals were included in the study as the healthy control group. ONSD measurements were performed on both the HE patients and the healthy control group in the brain CT.

RESULTS

The mortality rate of HE patients was 32.7%. Regarding the severity of the disease, 53% of the patients had late-stage HE. The presence of acute-on-chronic liver failure was detected in 51.4% of patients. The mortality rate among acute-on-chronic liver failure patients was 56.6%. According to the study data, ONSD, creatinine, lactate, and procalcitonin were independent predictors of mortality. Meanwhile, Child-Pugh score, direct bilirubin, ONSD, ammonia, and total bilirubin were independent predictors of disease severity. In the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, the ONSD had the highest predictive power for mortality and disease severity among the determined predictive values.

CONCLUSION

The data from the study suggests that assessing the ONSD through brain CT scans in individuals diagnosed with HE in the emergency department may provide valuable insights for clinicians, aiding in the prediction of both mortality rates and the severity of the disease.

Prospect and Challenges of Volatile Organic Compound Breath Testing in Non-Cancer Gastrointestinal Disorders

Breath analysis, despite being an overlooked biomatrix, has a rich history in disease diagnosis. However, volatile organic compounds (VOCs) have yet to establish themselves as clinically validated biomarkers for specific diseases. As focusing solely on late-stage or malignant disease biomarkers may have limited relevance in clinical practice, the objective of this review is to explore the potential of VOC breath tests for the diagnosis of non-cancer diseases: (1) Precancerous conditions like gastro-esophageal reflux disease (GERD) and Barrett's esophagus (BE), where breath tests can complement endoscopic screening; (2) endoluminal diseases associated with autoinflammation and dysbiosis, such as inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), irritable bowel syndrome (IBS), and coeliac disease, which currently rely on biopsy and symptom-based diagnosis; (3) chronic liver diseases like cirrhosis, hepatic encephalopathy, and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, which lack non-invasive diagnostic tools for disease progression monitoring and prognostic assessment. A literature search was conducted through EMBASE, MEDLINE, and Cochrane databases, leading to an overview of 24 studies. The characteristics of these studies, including analytical platforms, disorder type and stage, group size, and performance evaluation parameters for diagnostic tests are discussed. Furthermore, how VOCs can be utilized as non-invasive diagnostic tools to complement existing gold standards is explored. By refining study designs, sampling procedures, and comparing VOCs in urine and blood, we can gain a deeper understanding of the metabolic pathways underlying VOCs. This will establish breath analysis as an effective non-invasive method for differential diagnosis and disease monitoring.

Development and validation of prealbumin-bilirubin score (preALBI score) for predicting long-term survival after hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma: A multicenter analysis versus ALBI score

BACKGROUND

The Albumin-Bilirubin (ALBI) score, widely used in predicting long-term prognosis for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), has limitations due to serum albumin variability. This study aimed to develop and validate the Prealbumin-Bilirubin (preALBI) score as a reliable alternative.

METHODS

A multicenter cohort of HCC patients who underwent hepatectomy was randomly divided into the training and validation cohorts. The preALBI score was developed using Cox regression models within the training cohort, incorporating serum prealbumin and bilirubin levels as crucial determinants. The survival predictive accuracy was evaluated and compared between the preALBI score with two other staging systems, including the ALBI score and the Child-Pugh grade.

RESULTS

A total of 2409 patients were enrolled. In the training cohort, the preALBI score demonstrated superior performance in predicting long-term survival after hepatectomy. The preALBI score was associated with the best monotonicity of gradients (linear trend χ2: 72.84) and homogeneity (likelihood ratio χ2: 74.69), and the highest discriminatory ability (the areas under curves for 1-, 3-, and 5-year mortality: 0.663, 0.654, and 0.644, respectively). In addition, the preALBI was the most informative staging system in predicting survival (Akaike information criterion: 11325.65).The results remained consistent in both training and validation cohorts, indicating its reliable performance across different populations.

CONCLUSION

The preALBI score, leveraging the stability of prealbumin, represents a promising tool for better patient stratification, providing more accurate prognostic predictions than the ALBI score and the Child-Pugh grade.

Development and validation of a nomogram to predict allograft survival after pediatric liver transplantation

BACKGROUND

Liver transplantation is the main treatment for cholestatic liver disease and some metabolic liver diseases in children. However, no accurate prediction model to determine the survival probability of grafts prior to surgery exists. This study aimed to develop an effective prognostic model for allograft survival after pediatric liver transplantation.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study included 2032 patients who underwent pediatric liver transplantation between January 1, 2006, and January 1, 2020. A nomogram was developed using Cox regression and validated based on bootstrap sampling. Predictive and discriminatory accuracies were determined using the concordance index and visualized using calibration curves; net benefits were calculated for model comparison. An online Shiny application was developed for easy access to the model.

RESULTS

Multivariable analysis demonstrated that preoperative diagnosis, recipient age, body weight, graft type, preoperative total bilirubin, interleukin-1β, portal venous blood flow direction, spleen thickness, and the presence of heart disease and cholangitis were independent factors for survival, all of which were selected in the nomogram. Calibration of the nomogram indicated that the 1-, 3-, and 5-year predicted survival rates agreed with the actual survival rate. The concordance indices for graft survival at 1, 3, and 5 years were 0.776, 0.757, and 0.753, respectively, which were significantly higher than those of the Pediatric End-Stage Liver Disease and Child-Pugh scoring systems. The allograft dysfunction risk of a recipient could be easily predicted using the following URL: https://aspelt.shinyapps.io/ASPELT/ / CONCLUSION: The allograft survival after pediatric liver transplantation (ASPELT) score model can effectively predict the graft survival rate after liver transplantation in children, providing a simple and convenient evaluation method for clinicians and patients.

The value of periportal hyperintensity sign from gadobenate dimeglumine-enhanced hepatobiliary phase MRI for predicting clinical outcomes in patients with decompensated cirrhosis

OBJECTIVES

To determine the value of periportal hyperintensity sign from gadobenate dimeglumine (Gd-BOPTA)-enhanced hepatobiliary phase (HBP) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for predicting clinical outcomes in patients with decompensated cirrhosis.

METHODS

A total of 199 cirrhotic patients who underwent Gd-BOPTA-enhanced MRI were divided into control group (n  =  56) and decompensated cirrhosis group (n  =  143). The presence of periportal hyperintensity sign on HBP MRI was recorded. The Cox regression model was used to investigate the association between periportal hyperintensity sign and clinical outcomes.

RESULTS

There was a significant difference in the frequency of periportal hyperintensity sign on HBP between compensated and decompensated cirrhotic patients (p  <  0.05). After a median follow-up of 29.0 months (range, 1.0-90.0 months), nine out of 143 patients (6.2%) with decompensated cirrhosis died. Periportal hyperintensity sign on HBP MRI was a significant risk factor for death (hazard ratio (HR)  =  23.677; 95% confidence interval (CI)  =  4.759-117.788; p  =  0.0001), with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.844 (95% CI  =  0.774-0.899). Thirty patients (20.9%) developed further decompensation. Periportal hyperintensity sign on HBP MRI was also a significant risk factor for further decompensation (HR  =  2.594; 95% CI  =  1.140-5.903; p  =  0.023).

CONCLUSIONS

Periportal hyperintensity sign from Gd-BOPTA-enhanced HBP MRI is valuable for predicting clinical outcomes in patients with decompensated cirrhosis.

CRITICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT

Periportal hyperintensity sign from gadobenate dimeglumine-enhanced hepatobiliary phase magnetic resonance imaging is a new noninvasive method to predict clinical outcomes in patients with decompensated cirrhosis.

KEY POINTS

• There was a significant difference in the frequency of periportal hyperintensity sign on HBP between compensated and decompensated cirrhotic patients. • Periportal hyperintensity sign on the hepatobiliary phase was a significant risk factor for death in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. • Periportal hyperintensity sign on the hepatobiliary phase was a significant risk factor for further decompensation in patients with decompensated cirrhosis.

CHIBA score: a novel model for predicting 3-month mortality in a cohort of Decompensated Liver Disease (DCLD)

Background

Decompensated liver disease (DCLD) has high mortality, and its prediction is important to prognosticate and prioritize patients for liver transplantation. MELD, MELD variants, and CTP were widely tested for mortality prediction with few drawbacks. The aim of the study is to propose a new prognostic model for DCLD which is better than the existing scores.

Materials and methods

Retrospective study with 321 DCLD patients were enrolled. Patient relatives were telephonically contacted regarding date of death, and mortality at 3 months was assessed. Logistic regression was done, coefficient of beta of independent variables were found out, and a new CHIBA score was proposed.

CHIBA score = creatinine × 0.6 + HE × 0.4+ INR × 0.8 + bilirubin × 0.125 + ascites × 1.2) where C stands for creatinine, H for hepatic encephalopathy, I for INR, B for bilirubin, and A for ascites.

Results

CHIBA score has AUROC of 0.793 (at a cutoff of > 5.5, it has a sensitivity of 66% and specificity of 76%) compared to MELD-Na of 0.735 (cutoff > 25, sensitivity 65%, and specificity 72%); MELD of 0.727 (cutoff > 17 sensitivity of 80.37% and specificity of 55.14%); I-MELD of 0.72; MESO index of 0.72; and UKELD of 0.686. For validation, 214 patients were selected, and AUROC of CHIBA score in the validation cohort was 0.77. At a cutoff of > 5.5, it has a sensitivity of 60% and specificity of 77%.

Conclusion

CHIBA score is superior to MELD and MELD variants in predicting 3-month mortality, and it is validated in an external cohort. It can be calculated at bedside as it is a simple score with no logarithmic variables in it.

Elevated lactate/albumin ratio as a novel predictor of in-hospital mortality in hospitalized cirrhotics

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

Novel predictors of prognosis in cirrhotic patients have been emerging in recent years and studies show that the lactate/albumin ratio can serve as an early prognostic marker in different patient groups. We aimed to uncover the clinical significance of the lactate/albumin ratio in hospitalized patients with acutely decompensated cirrhosis.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A retrospective single-center cohort study was conducted in a tertiary medical center. Subjects included had an established diagnosis of liver cirrhosis and were admitted to the ICU or the Internal Medicine department with a clinical picture of acute-on-chronic liver failure between the years 2010 and 2021. The primary outcome was to assess the utility of the lactate/albumin ratio as a prognostic marker to predict mortality in hospitalized cirrhotic patients with acute-on-chronic hepatic failure.

RESULTS

Two hundred seventy-nine patients were included in this study. Univariate analysis revealed that mean WBC count, platelet/creatinine ratio, aspartate transaminase (AST), lactate, and MELD score were all significantly associated with the primary outcome. Multivariate analysis showed that the lactate/albumin ratio was the strongest statistically significant (p < 0.001) predictor of death during hospitalization - OR 13.196 (95% CI 3.6-48.3), followed by mean WBC count, MELD score, and serum lactate levels. A ROC curve was constructed, which resulted in an area under the curve (AUC) equal to 0.77. Crosstabs from the ROC showed a sensitivity of 66.7% and a specificity of 76.2% when the lactate/albumin ratio chosen as a cutoff was 0.9061 CONCLUSIONS: Elevated lactate/albumin ratio predicts in-hospital mortality in hospitalized cirrhotics with acute-on-chronic hepatic failure.

The impact of rifaximin on the hospital burden and infections in patients with hepatic encephalopathy: a retrospective observational study

Background and study aims: Advanced liver disease frequently culminates in hepatic encephalopathy (HE), which can be classified as covert or overt HE, with subtle or clinically obvious changes respectively. 30-40% of patients with cirrhosis develop overt HE, which negatively affects the patients’ quality of life. Next to lactulose, rifaximin-a has been prescribed as a second line therapy to treat and reduce the risk of recurrence of overt HE. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the effect of rifaximin-a therapy, both on the number of occurring infections and on the evolution in hospital admissions of patients with overt HE. Patients and methods: A total of 66 cirrhotic patients, treated for at least 6 months with rifaximin-a at AZ Maria Middelares, between October 1st 2014 and January 1st 2020, were included in the study analysis. Medical records of all patients were evaluated over a period of 6 months prior and after initiation of rifaximin-a therapy. Results: Data analysis revealed that the included cirrhotic patients were severely ill, with a mean model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score of 21, and a median Child Pugh score of 11. Among these patients, rifaximin-a treatment significantly downgraded the total number of infections, with a main effect on respiratory infections. Furthermore, rifaximin-a therapy led to a significant decrease in HE-related, as well as in other liver-related hospital admissions. Conclusions: This study confirms the potential value of rifaximin-a in reducing the number of developing infections and hospital admissions in a severely ill cirrhotic patient population.

The Prognostic Values of Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte Ratio and Platelet-to-Lymphocyte Ratio at Baseline in Predicting the In-hospital Mortality in Black African Patients with Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Palliative Treatment: A Comparative Cohort Study

Background

The prognostic values of the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and the platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) in predicting the in-hospital mortality of Black African patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in palliative treatment is unknown.

Aim

To determine the prognostic value of NLR and PLR compared with that of Child–Turcotte–Pugh (CTP), model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores and the Barcelona clinic liver cancer staging system (BCLC).

Methods

The cutoffs, accuracies and association with the mortality of these prognostic scores were determined using a time-dependent area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC), the log rank test and Cox proportional hazards ratio.

Results

A total of 104 patients with advanced HCC (median age=49.5 years, males=58.7%) were enrolled. All were hospitalized for an enlarged liver mass of at least 15.4 cm in size in the right thoracic quadrant. Overall, 46 (44.2%) patients died in hospital during follow-up. Patients with NLR >2.5 (log rank test=7.11, p=0.01) or PLR >92 (log rank test=5.63, p=0.02) had poor survival. Factors associated with the in-hospital mortality were the MELD score (p=0.01), NLR (p=0.03) and hemoglobin level (p=0.02). NLR exhibits better and stable accuracy in predicting the in hospital mortality at time points of 30 (AUC=0.618), 60 (AUC=0.680) and 90 (AUC=0.613) days of follow-up, compared with CTP, MELD scores, BCLC and PLR. However, PLR displayed an enhanced accuracy over 90 days of follow up (AUC=0.688).

Conclusion

NLR is useful in predicting the in-hospital mortality in Black African patients with advanced stage HCC in clinical practice. NLR and PLR may be used concomitantly for long-term follow-up.

Plasma Cystatin C Level is a Prognostic Marker of Morbidity and Mortality in Hospitalized Decompensated Cirrhotic Patients

Introduction : Cystatin C (CysC) is biomarker for early detection of acute kidney injury (AKI). However, there is limited evidence in decompensated cirrhotic patients without AKI at admission. This study aimed to assess CysC as a predictor of 90-day mortality. Methods : Decompensated cirrhotic patients without AKI were prospectively enrolled. CysC and creatinine were measured within 24 hours of admission and compared between patients with in-hospital complications (AKI, hepatorenal syndrome (HRS), acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF)) vs. those without, and survivors vs. non-survivors. The AUROC and cut-off point of CysC in predicting 90-day mortality were determined. Results : Of 137 decompensated cirrhotic patients, 46 without AKI at admission were included (58.7% male, age 60.8 ± 11.2years, MELD 13.1 ± 5.1, ChildA / B / C 43.5% / 39.1% / 17.4%). The mean CysC level tended to be higher in patients with ACLF (1.52 ± 0.60 vs. 1.11 ± 0.28, p = 0.05), and significantly higher in non-survivors than survivors (1.61 ± 0.53 vs. 1.08 ± 0.28, p = 0.013). The 90-day mortality rate was 21.7%. After adjusting with age and bacterial infection on admission, CysC level  ≥ 1.25 mg / L was significantly associated with 90-day mortality. The CysC cut-off level  ≥ 1.25 mg / L provided 80% sensitivity and 75% specificity for predicting 90-day mortality. Conclusion : Plasma CysC within 24 hours could be used as a predictor for 90-day mortality and development of ACLF in decompensated cirrhotic patients. J. Med. Invest. 68 : 302-308, August, 2021.

A Prospective Multicenter Study of the Chinese Scoring System for Hepatitis B Liver Failure

Objective: To evaluate the clinical utility of a Chinese scoring system for hepatitis B liver failure in a prospective and multicenter study. Methods: Clinical data for 1,143 patients with hepatitis B liver failure who had been followed up for a minimum of 6 months were collected from seven liver disease centers across China. The disease severity and prognosis for the patients were predicted using the Chinese scoring system and compared to those predicted with the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, MELD-Na score, and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score. Results: The Chinese scoring system was more effective at predicting the outcomes of survival and mortality than the MELD score. In the peak disease stage, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the Chinese scoring system was 0.954, significantly higher than that (0.896) for the MELD scoring system (P < 0.001). The positive prediction at 30, 90, and 180 days with the Chinese scoring system was 0.764 (95% CI: 0.714-0.808), 0.731 (95% CI: 0.694-0.769), and 0.724 (95% CI: 0.679-0.765), also significantly higher than that with the MELD, MELD-Na, and CTP scores (P < 0.001). In addition, the Chinese scoring system was superior to the MELD, MELD-Na, and CTP scores (P < 0.001) at predicting the prognosis of patients with hepatitis B liver failure at both 30 and 180 days. Conclusion: The Chinese scoring system demonstrated superior performance to the three established scoring systems in assessing the severity and outcomes of hepatitis B liver failure in this cohort.

Convolutional Neural Network Model for Intensive Care Unit Acute Kidney Injury Prediction

INTRODUCTION

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is common among hospitalized patients and has a significant impact on morbidity and mortality. Although early prediction of AKI has the potential to reduce adverse patient outcomes, it remains a difficult condition to predict and diagnose. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the ability of a machine learning algorithm to predict for AKI as defined by Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) stage 2 or 3 up to 48 hours in advance of onset using convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and patient electronic health record (EHR) data.

METHODS

A CNN prediction system was developed to use EHR data gathered during patients' stays to predict AKI up to 48 hours before onset. A total of 12,347 patient encounters were retrospectively analyzed from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC-III) database. An XGBoost AKI prediction model and the sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) scoring system were used as comparators. The outcome was AKI onset. The model was trained on routinely collected patient EHR data. Measurements included area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve, positive predictive value (PPV), and a battery of additional performance metrics for advance prediction of AKI onset.

RESULTS

On a hold-out test set, the algorithm attained an AUROC of 0.86 and PPV of 0.24, relative to a cohort AKI prevalence of 7.62%, for long-horizon AKI prediction at a 48-hour window before onset.

CONCLUSION

A CNN machine learning-based AKI prediction model outperforms XGBoost and the SOFA scoring system, revealing superior performance in predicting AKI 48 hours before onset, without reliance on serum creatinine (SCr) measurements.

Gadoxetic acid-enhanced MRI in primary sclerosing cholangitis: added value in assessing liver function and monitoring disease progression

PURPOSE

To investigate the added value of gadoxetic acid-enhanced MRI in monitoring liver function and disease progression in patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC).

METHODS

We retrospectively identified 104 consecutive patients (75 males; mean age 41.98 ± 12.5 years) with confirmed diagnosis of PSC who underwent 227 gadoxetic acid-enhanced MRI examinations between January 2008 and May 2019. Relative enhancement (RE) of the liver was correlated with the results of liver function tests (LFTs), scoring models (Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score, Mayo Risk Score (MRS), Amsterdam-Oxford model (AOM)), and qualitative MRI findings. In addition, results were analyzed separately for excretory MRI examinations (n = 164) and nonexcretory examinations (n = 63) depending on excretion of gadoxetic acid into the common bile duct in the hepatobiliary phase (HBP).

RESULTS

There was a significant correlation of RE with MRS (r = - 0.652), MELD score (r = - 0.474), AOM (r = - 0.468), and LFTs (P < 0.001). RE and albumin were significantly higher in the excretory group whereas scoring models, bilirubin, aspartate aminotransferase, alkaline phosphatase, and international normalized ratio were lower (P < 0.001). RE was lower in segments with absent HBP gadoxetic acid excretion into dilated bile ducts, reduced HBP parenchymal enhancement, atrophy, T2 hyperintensity, and bile duct abnormalities (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Relative enhancement of the liver in gadoxetic acid-enhanced MRI can be used to evaluate global and regional liver function and monitor disease progression in patients with PSC. Hepatobiliary phase gadoxetic acid biliary excretion appears to be a reproducible qualitative parameter for evaluating disease severity that can be easily integrated into routine clinical practice.

A noninvasive index to predict liver cirrhosis in biliary atresia

BACKGROUND

Biliary atresia is a progressive obliterative cholangiopathy affecting both extrahepatic and intrahepatic biliary trees, resulting in fibrous obliteration of the biliary tract and subsequent development of cirrhosis.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to find noninvasive indices to predict the status of hepatic fibrosis in children with biliary atresia.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We retrospectively measured the volume of the hepatic lobes and spleen from MR images, obtained biochemical data and analyzed the relationship between the imaging and biochemical indices, and the pathological status of hepatic fibrosis in 35 children with biliary atresia.

RESULTS

A combined index was obtained by logistic regression: logit (likelihood of cirrhosis) = 0.00043 x age at MR examination + 1.67 x aspartate aminotransferase and platelet ratio index (APRI) + 0.0029 x body-surface-area-adjusted left liver lobe volume (BSA adLLV) - 6.57 (log-likelihood chi-square P<0.05, pseudo-R²=0.59). The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve of age at MR examination, APRI, BSA adLLV and the combined index for prediction of cirrhosis were 0.91, 0.86, 0.83 and 0.94, respectively. The optimal cut-off value (sensitivity and specificity) of age at MR examination, APRI, BSA adLLV and combined index were 132 (86% and 92%), 1.3 (91% and 85%), 855.5 (96% and 62%) and 0.689 (91% and 92%). The accuracy of age at MR examination, APRI, BSA adLLV and combined index were 89%, 89%, 83% and 91%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

A combined noninvasive index of age, aspartate aminotransferase and platelet ratio index, and the body-surface-area-adjusted left liver lobe volume measured from MR images is a potential marker of liver cirrhosis in children with biliary atresia.

A New Recalibrated Four-Category Child-Pugh Score Performs Better than the Original Child-Pugh and MELD Scores in Predicting In-Hospital Mortality in Decompensated Alcoholic Cirrhotic Patients with Acute Variceal Bleeding: a Real-World Cohort Analysis

BACKGROUND

There currently is no consensus on how to accurately predict early rebleeding and death after a major variceal bleed. This study investigated the relative predictive performances of the original Child-Pugh (CP), model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and a four-category recalibrated Child-Pugh (rCP).

METHODS

This prospective study included all adult patients admitted to Groote Schuur Hospital with acute esophageal variceal bleeding secondary to alcoholic cirrhosis, between January 2000 and December 2017. CP and rCP grades and MELD score were calculated on admission, and the predictive ability in discriminating in-hospital rebleeding and death was compared by area under receiver-operating characteristic (AUROC) curves.

RESULTS

During the study period, 403 consecutive adult patients were treated for bleeding esophageal varices of whom 225 were secondary to alcoholic cirrhosis. Twenty-four (10.6%) patients were CP grade A, 88 (39.1%) grade B and 113 (50.2%) grade C on hospital admission. MELD scores ranged from 6 to 40. Thirty-one (13.8%) patients rebleed, and 41 (18.2%) patients died. There was no difference in the discriminatory capacity of the CP (AUROC 0.59, 95% CI 0.50-0.670) and MELD (AUROC 0.62, 95% CI 0.51-0.73) to predict rebleeding (p = 0.72), or between the Child-Pugh (AUROC 0.75, 95% CI 0.71-0.81) and MELD (AUROC 0.71, 95% CI 0.62-0.80) to predict death (p = 0.35). The rCP classification (A-D) had a significantly improved discriminatory capacity (AUROC 0.83 95% CI 0.77-0.89) compared to the CP score (A-C) and MELD to predict death (p = 0.004).

CONCLUSION

A recalibrated Child-Pugh score outperforms the original Child-Pugh grade and MELD score in predicting in-hospital death in patients with bleeding esophageal varices secondary to alcoholic cirrhosis.

Modified Child-Pugh grade vs albumin-bilirubin grade for predicting prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma patients after hepatectomy

BACKGROUND

Hepatectomy is the main treatment for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and it has a high possibility for long-term cure potential. But the postoperative mortality and recurrence rates remain high. Since the long-term prognosis of HCC patients is strongly linked to liver function, preoperative assessment of liver function is very important for HCC patients.

AIM

To compare the predictive power of the modified Child-Pugh (MCP) and albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grades for the long-term outcome of HCC.

METHODS

From January 2010 to June 2017, a total of 204 patients with HCC who underwent surgery at the Second Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University were enrolled in this retrospective study. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to determine the independent predictive factors of survival and relapse. The area under the curve (AUC) was used to evaluate the discriminative performance of the MCP grade and ALBI grade to predict the postoperative overall survival (OS) time and recurrence-free survival (RFS) time.

RESULTS

The median OS and RFS times were 44.0 mo (range: 22.0-74.0 mo) and 22.0 mo (range: 5.0-45.0 mo), respectively. The median OS and RFS times of MCP grades 1, 2, and 3 patients were 60.0, 39.0, and 18.0 mo (P < 0.001) and 36.0, 15.0, and 7.0 mo (P < 0.001), respectively. The median OS and RFS times of ALBI grades 1, 2, and 3 patients were 56.0, 26.0, and 6.0 mo (P < 0.001) and 25.0, 10.0, and 3.0 mo (P = 0.003), respectively. Both the MCP and ALBI grades were more accurate than the Child-Pugh grade for predicting long-term prognosis. Further analysis demonstrated that for both predicting OS and RFS, the MCP grade performed better than the ALBI grade (AUC: 0.642 vs 0.605 for OS; 0.659 vs 0.594 for RFS).

CONCLUSION

The MCP grade is more accurate than the ALBI grade for predicting long-term outcome of patients with HCC.

Assessing the Prognostic Performance of the Child-Pugh, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease, and Albumin-Bilirubin Scores in Patients with Decompensated Cirrhosis: A Large Asian Cohort from Gastroenterology Department

Background and Aim. Various methods, including the Child-Pugh score, the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, the MELD combined with serum sodium concentration (MELD-Na) score, the integrated MELD (iMELD) score, and the albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score, have been widely used for predicting the survival of decompensated cirrhosis (DeCi) patients. In this study, we defined and compared the prognostic value of these scores to predict mortality in DeCi patients.

Frailty, Sarcopenia, and Malnutrition in Cirrhotic Patients

Sarcopenia, frailty, and malnutrition are prevalent complications in patients with end-stage liver disease (ESLD) and are associated with increased risk of morbidity and mortality. It is valuable to measure nutritional status, sarcopenia, and frailty over time in order to create interventions tailored to individuals with ESLD. Evaluating sarcopenia and frailty in patients with ESLD is challenging. Further work is needed to perfect these assessments so that clinicians can incorporate these assessments into their decision-making and management plans for cirrhotic patients.

Atypical neuroimaging findings in patients with acquired hepatocerebral degeneration

BACKGROUND

Acquired hepatocerebral degeneration (AHD) is now widely recognized by physicians. Although hyperintensity in the bilateral globus pallidus in T1-weighted magnetic resonance images (MRIs) are characteristic neuroimaging findings, accumulating reports indicate that atypical neuroimaging findings are not rare. This study aimed to describe the spectrum of atypical neuroimaging findings and related factors in patients with AHD.

METHODS

From February 2017 to January 2019, a retrospective study was conducted of 28 patients with AHD in the Shengjing Hospital of China Medical University. The neurological manifestations, clinical parameters, and biochemical and neuroimaging findings were analyzed.

RESULTS

Among 28 patients, 14 patients were diagnosed with viral hepatitis-caused hepatocirrhosis, which was the most common cause of AHD. Resting tremor, cognitive impairment, and parkinsonian gait were the most common neurologic symptoms. Bilateral globus pallidus T1-weighted hyperintensity was detected in 26 patients (26/28, 92.9%). Ten patients (10/28, 35.7%) were determined to have an atypical neuroimaging finding. Binary logistic regression analysis indicated that age at onset of neurologic symptoms (odds ratio = 1.29, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03-1.61; p = 0.030) and Child-Pugh scores (odds ratio = 2.52, 95% CI, 1.01-6.31; p = 0.048) were independently associated with atypical neuroimaging findings in AHD.

CONCLUSION

The clinical manifestations of AHD are diverse; resting tremor, cognitive impairment, and parkinsonian gait were the most common. More than one third of patients had atypical neuroimaging findings. Age at onset of neurologic symptoms and Child-Pugh scores may be important predictors of atypical neuroimaging findings in patients with AHD.

Risk-benefit point of the Model for End-stage Liver Disease score in patients waiting for deceased-donor liver transplantation: A single-center experience

AIM

To clarify the risk-benefit point of the Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) score in patients waiting for deceased-donor liver transplantation (DDLT).

METHODS

The present study retrospectively investigated 213 patients registered on the waiting list at Kyoto University (Kyoto, Japan) between 2005 and 2016. Patients were stratified by MELD score (6-9/10-14/15-20/21-30/31-40) and classified into two groups: the DDLT group (30 patients) and the waiting group (183 patients). Their post-registration mortality risk and long-term survival were compared.

RESULTS

For all MELD categories, the mortality risk was lower in the DDLT group than in the waiting group. The hazard ratio of post-registration mortality decreased in the DDLT group compared to the waiting group as the MELD score increased (0.36/0.12/0.06/0.042/0.004). Survival was significantly better among patients in the DDLT group with a MELD score of 15 or more than among patients in the waiting group.

CONCLUSION

For all MELD categories, DDLT reduced the mortality risk of patients on the waiting list.

Prioritization for liver transplantation using the MELD score in Chile: Inequities generated by MELD exceptions.: A collaboration between the Chilean Liver Transplant Programs, the Public Health Institute and the National Transplant Coordinator

INTRODUCTION AND AIM

The MELD score has been established as an efficient and rigorous prioritization system for liver transplant (LT). Our study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of the MELD score as a system for prioritization for LT, in terms of decreasing the dropout rate in the waiting list and maintaining an adequate survival post-LT in Chile.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We analyzed the Chilean Public Health Institute liver transplant registry of candidates listed from October 15th 2011 to December 31st 2014. We included adult candidates (>15 years old) listed for elective cadaveric LT with a MELD score of 15 or higher. Statistical analysis included survival curves (Kaplan-Meier), log-rank statistics and multivariate logistic regression.

RESULTS

420 candidates were analyzed. Mean age was 53.6±11.8 years, and 244 were men (58%). Causes of LT included: Liver cirrhosis without exceptions (HC) 177 (66.4%); hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) 111 (26.4%); cirrhosis with non-HCC exceptions 102 (24.3%) and non-cirrhotic candidates 30 (7.2%). LT rate was 43.2%. The dropout rate was 37.6% at 1-year. Even though the LT rate was higher, the annual dropout rate was significantly higher in cirrhotic candidates (without exceptions) compared with cirrhotics with HCC, and non-HCC exceptions plus non-cirrhotic candidates (47.9%; 37.2% and 24.2%, respectively, with p=0.004). Post-LT survival was 84% per year, with no significant differences between the three groups (p=0.95).

CONCLUSION

Prioritization for LT using the MELD score system has not decreased the dropout rate in Chile (persistent low donor's rate). Exceptions generate inequities in dropout rate, disadvantaging patients without exceptions.

Efficacy of ombitasvir/paritaprevir/ritonavir/ribavirin in management of HCV genotype 4 and end-stage kidney disease

BACKGROUND

Till now, pooled data about the safety and efficacy of different direct-acting antiviral (DAAs) regimens in different renal situations are still under evaluation.

AIM

To evaluate a real-life experience of the efficacy and safety of ombitasvir/paritaprevir/ritonavir plus ribavirin (OBV/PTV/r plus RIB) in patients with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Between January 2017 and January 2018, an open-label multicenter prospective study was designed to enroll all consecutive patients with proven CHC genotype 4 infections and concomitant ESKD based on estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) with (HD group) or without hemodialysis (non-HD group). Patients were given a co-formula of OBV/PTV/r (25/150/100 mg) once-daily plus RIB was given for 12 weeks. Sustained virologic response (SVR 12) was the primary endpoint.

RESULTS

A total of 110 patients were enrolled. An overall SVR 12 was reported in 104 (94.5%) patients, and treatment failure were reported in 6 patients [2 patients (1.8%) were relapsed, and 4 patients (3.6%) patients were non-responders]. SVR12 was 96% in HD and 91.4% in non-HD patients (P = 0.286). There were no reported serious adverse events. Anemia was reported in 66.6% (n = 50) in HD group and in 31.4% (n = 11) in non-HD group.

CONCLUSION

Although it is still challenging, achievement of SVR12 in patients with chronic HCV and concomitant end-stage kidney disease in the era of DAAs became possible with a 12 weeks course of a co-formula of ombitasvir/paritaprevir /ritonavir plus ribavirin. CLINICALTRIALS.

GOV ID

NCT03341988.

Prognostic Models in Acute Liver Failure

There is a strong imperative to develop valid and accurate prognostic modeling for acute liver failure (ALF). Despite the numerous clinical models that have been proposed thus far and the use of some such models, that is, King's College Criteria and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease, in clinical practice to aid decision-making, there is a significant need for improvement for determining patients' clinical course, survival, and requirement for liver transplantation. Future prognostic models shall need a stronger statistical foundation and accountability for time and variability in the clinical course of ALF and be applied for pretransplant and posttransplant outcomes.

Model for End-Stage Liver Disease and Seven Derivations to Prioritize Liver Transplant Candidates: Which Is the Winner?

OBJECTIVES

Under the present liver transplant policy, patients with the highest risk of death receive preference for organ placement. The aim of this study was to evaluate the Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) and seven prognostic derivatives of this test for outcome prediction in cirrhotic patients on liver transplant wait lists.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

The study included 416 patients (65.9% male; age 49 ± 13.9 years) who were entered to liver transplant wait lists from January 2013 to October 2016. Study endpoints were 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year mortality.

RESULTS

All prognostic models had acceptable overall performances (0.12 < Brier score < 0.21). The MELD-to-serum sodium ratio test outperformed its counterparts at all 3 endpoints. Estimated C statistics ranged from 0.77 to 0.83. The largest value at 3 months was for the 5-variable MELD score (0.83), and the largest value at 6 months (0.82) and 1 year (0.83) was for the MELD-albumin score. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test and calibration plots revealed underestimation for the entire range of predicted risk (P < .001). With decision curve analysis, the MELD-to-serum sodium ratio and United Kingdom Model for End-Stage Liver Disease scoring tests covered the most extensive range of optimal threshold probabilities.

CONCLUSIONS

Although some derivations, including sodium and albumin, showed effective prioritization of liver transplant candidates, poor calibration statistics highlighted the need for a recalibration process as an inevitable prerequisite before daily clinical use of these tests at the individual level.

ALBI versus Child-Pugh grading systems for liver function in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

The prognostic performance of the albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) as an objective method of assessing liver function was investigated.

METHODS

Data from 2099 patients with HCC in Korea were collected and analyzed retrospectively. The discriminative performance of ALBI grade was compared with Child-Pugh (C-P) grade for different stages or treatments.

RESULTS

The median follow up duration was 16.2 months (range: 1.0-124.9). The median survival times were 49.7 months for C-P grade A (65.8%), 12.4 months for C-P grade B (25.5%), and 4.2 months for C-P grade C (8.6%) (P < 0.001). The median survival times were 84.2 months for ALBI grade 1 (32.8%), 25.5 months for ALBI grade 2 (53.5%), and 7.7 months for ALBI grade 3 (13.7%) (P < 0.001). In early UICC stages, ALBI grade showed better discriminative performance than C-P grade. In curative treatments, ALBI grade also showed better discriminative performance than C-P grade (Harrell's C: 0.624 (C-P grade) vs 0.667 [ALBI grade]).

CONCLUSIONS

ALBI grade provided better prognostic performance in survival analysis and better distribution of the grades than C-P grade in HCC, suggesting that ALBI grade could be a good alternative grading system for liver function in patients with HCC.

Bacterial infections in patients with liver cirrhosis: clinical characteristics and the role of C-reactive protein

Background

The diagnosis of bacterial infection in cirrhotic patients may be difficult, because of the absence of classical signs such as fever and raised white blood cell count. The role of C-reactive protein (CRP) in this context has not been clearly defined.

Methods

Clinical and laboratory characteristics of 210 consecutive cirrhotic patients with (n=100) or without (n=110) bacterial infection were compared with a control group of non-cirrhotic patients with infection (n=106).

Results

Significantly fewer patients with cirrhosis had a body temperature ≥37°C when presenting with bacterial infection (56% cirrhotic vs. 85.5% non-cirrhotic patients, P=0.01). Mean leukocyte count was 6.92 × 10³/mm³ in patients with cirrhosis and infection, 5.75 × 10³/mm³ (P=0.02) in cirrhotic patients without infection, and 11.28 × 10³/mm³ in non-cirrhotic patients with infection (P<0.001). Multivariate analysis revealed that CRP level and model for end-stage liver disease score were significantly associated with the presence of infection in patients with cirrhosis. A cutoff level of CRP>10 mg/L indicated the presence of infection with a sensitivity of 68%, a specificity of 84.5% and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.8197. CRP cutoff level differed according to the severity of the liver disease: Child-Pugh score (CPS) A: 21.3 mg/L, B: 17 mg/L, and C: 5.78 mg/L.

Conclusions

CRP at admission could help diagnose infection in cirrhotic patients. Since the severity of liver disease seems to affect the CRP values, lower CRP levels might indicate infection. Clinical suspicion is necessary to avoid delay in diagnosis and initiate antibiotic treatment.

Low Graft Attenuation at Unenhanced CT: Association with 1-Month Mortality or Graft Failure after Liver Transplantation

Purpose To investigate whether low graft attenuation at unenhanced computed tomography (CT) is associated with 1-month mortality or graft failure after liver transplant and determine its diagnostic performance. Materials and Methods Included were 663 recipients who underwent CT imaging within 7 days after liver transplant between December 2014 and August 2016. Initial poor function (IPF) was diagnosed by using a combination of laboratory values within 7 days after liver transplant and subdivided patients into primary and secondary IPF. At 1 month after the operation, mortality and graft failure or survival in recipients was categorized. Two radiologists who were blinded to clinical data retrospectively and independently evaluated graft attenuation on unenhanced CT images (high or isoattenuation, graft attenuation greater than or equal to that of spleen; low, graft attenuation less than that of spleen). The interobserver agreement was evaluated by using intraclass correlation coefficient and κ statics. Incidence of low graft attenuation between recipients with IPF and those with normal function was compared by using χ² test. The relationship between graft attenuation and outcome in primary and secondary IPF was evaluated by using log-rank test. Results Of 663 recipients, 114 had IPF (80 primary; 34 secondary). After 1 month, 11 had graft failure or died, whereas 652 survived. Low graft attenuation was more common in patients with IPF than in normal-function patients (P < .001). In the primary group (those without identifiable cause), 15 patients had low graft attenuation, which led to mortality or graft failure within 1 month in seven of those patients. No recipient with high or isoattenuation had 1-month mortality or graft failure (P < .001). The secondary group (those with identifiable cause) showed no significant association between graft attenuation and 1-month mortality and graft failure (P = .181). Values of low graft attenuation for 1-month mortality and graft failure in primary IPF were positive predictive value, 46.7%; negative predictive value, 100%; sensitivity, 100%; specificity, 89.0%; and accuracy, 90.0%. There was excellent interobserver agreement in the assessment of graft attenuation (intraclass correlation coefficient, 0.957; κ = 1.00). Conclusion Low graft attenuation can be associated with 1-month mortality or graft failure in liver graft recipients with primary IPF. ^© RSNA, 2017.

N-butyl-2 cyanoacrylate (NBCA) embolus in the graft portal vein after portosystemic collateral embolization in liver transplantation recipient: what is the clinical significance?

Background An N-butyl-2 cyanoacrylate (NBCA) embolus in the graft portal vein was frequently observed after an intraoperative embolization of portosystemic collaterals performed to prevent portal steal in liver transplant (LT) recipients. The radiological and clinical features of NBCA emboli have not yet been described. Purpose To describe radiological and clinical features of NBCA embolus in graft portal vein after portosystemic collateral embolization in LT recipients. Material and Methods A total of 165 consecutive LT recipients who had undergone intraoperative NBCA embolization of varix were found in single institution's computerized databases of a clinical cohort of LT. Patients were evaluated for NBCA emboli (categorized into major and minor emboli according to location) on first postoperative computed tomography (CT). All electronic medical records and radiologic studies including follow-up was evaluated to determine any radiological and clinical abnormality associated with NBCA embolus. Results NBCA emboli were found in 24% (39/165) of recipients. Although most patients had minor emboli (77%, 30/39) without remarkable ultrasonography (US) abnormalities, seven (78%) of nine recipients with major emboli showed intraluminal echogenic lesions in graft portal vein on grayscale US, and five of them (71%) showed partial portal flow obstruction, although none exhibited any abnormality on contrast-enhanced US. Recipients with NBCA portal emboli showed no significant clinical abnormalities and were discharged safely. NBCA embolus eventually disappeared mostly within six months (82%, 32/39). Conclusion NBCA emboli are frequently observed after portosystemic collateral embolization in LT recipients and are not associated with poor clinical outcome. They may mimic ordinary thromboemboli on US.

Risk Factors for Post-Transplant Death in Donation after Circulatory Death Liver Transplantation

PURPOSE

In spite of the increasing success of liver transplantation, there remains inevitable risk of postoperative complications, re-operations, and even death. Risk factors that correlate with post-transplant death have not been fully identified.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We performed a retrospective analysis of 65 adults that received donation after circulatory death liver transplantation. Binary logistic regression and Cox's proportional hazards regression were employed to identify risk factors that associate with postoperative death and the length of survival period.

RESULTS

Twenty-two recipients (33.8%) deceased during 392.3 ± 45.6 days. The higher preoperative Child-Pugh score (p = .007), prolonged postoperative ICU stay (p = .02), and more postoperative complications (p = .0005) were observed in deceased patients. Advanced pathological staging (p = .02) with more common nerve invasion (p = .03), lymph node invasion (p = .02), and para-tumor satellite lesion (p = .01) were found in deceased group. The higher pre-transplant Child-Pugh score was a risk factor for post-transplant death (OR = 4.38, p = .011), and was correlated with reduced post-transplant survival period (OR = 0.35, p = .009). Nerve invasion was also a risk factor for post-transplant death (OR = 13.85, p = .014), although it failed to affect survival period.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study emphasizes the impact of recipient's pre-transplant liver function as well as pre-transplant nerve invasion by recipient's liver cancer cells on postoperative outcome and survival period in patients receiving liver transplantation.

Predicting AKI in emergency admissions: an external validation study of the acute kidney injury prediction score (APS)

OBJECTIVES

Hospital-acquired acute kidney injury (HA-AKI) is associated with a high risk of mortality. Prediction models or rules may identify those most at risk of HA-AKI. This study externally validated one of the few clinical prediction rules (CPRs) derived in a general medicine cohort using clinical information and data from an acute hospitals electronic system on admission: the acute kidney injury prediction score (APS).

DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

External validation in a single UK non-specialist acute hospital (2013-2015, 12 554 episodes); four cohorts: adult medical and general surgical populations, with and without a known preadmission baseline serum creatinine (SCr).

METHODS

Performance assessed by discrimination using area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCROC) and calibration.

RESULTS

HA-AKI incidence within 7 days (kidney disease: improving global outcomes (KDIGO) change in SCr) was 8.1% (n=409) of medical patients with known baseline SCr, 6.6% (n=141) in those without a baseline, 4.9% (n=204) in surgical patients with baseline and 4% (n=49) in those without. Across the four cohorts AUCROC were: medical with known baseline 0.65 (95% CIs 0.62 to 0.67) and no baseline 0.71 (0.67 to 0.75), surgical with baseline 0.66 (0.62 to 0.70) and no baseline 0.68 (0.58 to 0.75). For calibration, in medicine and surgical cohorts with baseline SCr, Hosmer-Lemeshow p values were non-significant, suggesting acceptable calibration. In the medical cohort, at a cut-off of five points on the APS to predict HA-AKI, positive predictive value was 16% (13-18%) and negative predictive value 94% (93-94%). Of medical patients with HA-AKI, those with an APS ≥5 had a significantly increased risk of death (28% vs 18%, OR 1.8 (95% CI 1.1 to 2.9), p=0.015).

CONCLUSIONS

On external validation the APS on admission shows moderate discrimination and acceptable calibration to predict HA-AKI and may be useful as a severity marker when HA-AKI occurs. Harnessing linked data from primary care may be one way to achieve more accurate risk prediction.

Breath-print analysis by e-nose may refine risk stratification for adverse outcomes in cirrhotic patients

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The spectrum of volatile organic compounds in the exhaled breath (breath-print, BP) has been shown to characterize patients with cirrhosis and with worse hepatic function. However, the association of different BPs with clinically relevant outcomes has not been described yet. Hence, we aimed to evaluate the association between BPs, mortality and hospitalization in cirrhotic patients and to compare it with that of the "classical" prognostic indices (Child-Pugh Classification [CPC] and MELD).

METHODS

Eighty-nine cirrhotic patients (M/F 59/30, mean age 64.8 ± 11.3, CPC A/B/C 37/33/19) were recruited and followed up for a median time of 23 months. Clinical and biochemical data were collected. Breath collection and analysis were obtained through Pneumopipe® and BIONOTE e-nose respectively.

RESULTS

Four different BP clusters (A, B, C, D) were identified. BP clusters A and D were associated with a significantly increased risk of mortality (HR 2.9, 95% confidence intervals [CI] 1.5-5.6) and hospitalization (HR 2.6, 95% CI 1.4-4.6), even in multiple adjusted models including CPC and MELD score (adjusted [a]HR 2.8, 95% CI 1.1-7.0 for mortality and aHR 2.2, 95% CI 1.1-4.2 for hospitalization). CPC C maintained the strongest association with both mortality (aHR 17.6, 95% CI 1.8-174.0) and hospitalization (aHR 12.4, 95% CI 2.0-75.8).

CONCLUSIONS

This pilot study demonstrates that BP clusters are associated with significant clinical endpoints (mortality and hospitalization) even independently from "classical" prognostic indices. Even though further studies are warranted on this topic, our findings suggest that the e-nose may become an adjunctive aid to stratify the risk of adverse outcomes in cirrhotic patients.

CT Features of Primary Graft Nonfunction after Liver Transplantation

Purpose To determine computed tomographic (CT) features of primary graft nonfunction (PNF) after liver transplantation in comparison with those of early graft failure or death by identifiable causes. Materials and Methods Institutional review board approval was obtained and informed consent was waived. Among 3947 adult liver transplantations performed in one institution between May 2002 and May 2015, 72 patients died or had graft failure within 10 days, and 38 of them were evaluated with CT. PNF was diagnosed in 21 patients. The other 17 patients who died or had early graft failure were considered the non-PNF control group. On unenhanced CT images, graft attenuation was compared qualitatively. Graft attenuation was measured quantitatively and, if available, the difference between preoperative and postoperative CT (interval change) attenuation was evaluated. Unenhanced CT was evaluated for relative parenchymal enhancement. Statistical analyses included the Fisher exact and χ² tests with Yates correction and the Student t test. Results On unenhanced CT images, grafts with PNF more commonly showed low (eight of 26 [31%]) or extremely low (18 of 26 [69%]) qualitative attenuation compared with grafts in the non-PNF group (three of 21 [14%], one of 21 [5%]; P < .001). The mean attenuation value (30.5 HU ± 10.8) was significantly lower and the mean interval change (24.7 HU ± 12.5) was significantly higher in the PNF group than in the non-PNF group (49.7 HU ± 8.0 and 9.7 HU ± 10.1, respectively; P < .001 and P = .001). There was no significant difference in the proportion of grafts that showed poor enhancement on postcontrast CT images between the PNF group and the non-PNF group (nine of 24 [38%] vs two of 20 [10%], respectively; P = .08). Conclusion Recipients with PNF after liver transplantation tended to show low or extremely low attenuation on unenhanced CT images, and this finding was seen more frequently in patients with PNF than in those who died of identifiable causes and in those with early graft failure. ^© RSNA, 2016 Online supplemental material is available for this article.

Living donor liver transplantation for high model for end-stage liver disease score: What have we learned?

AIM

To assess the impact of model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score on patient survival and morbidity post living donor liver transplantation (LDLT).

METHODS

A retrospective study was performed on 80 adult patients who had LDLT from 2011-2013. Nine patients were excluded and 71 patients were divided into two groups; Group 1 included 38 patients with a MELD score < 20, and Group 2 included 33 patients with a MELD score > 20. Comparison between both groups was done regarding operative time, intra-operative blood requirement, intensive care unit (ICU) and hospital stay, infection, and patient survival.

RESULTS

Eleven patients died (15.5%); 3/38 (7.9%) patients in Group 1 and 8/33 (24.2%) in Group 2 with significant difference (P = 0.02). Mean operative time, duration of hospital stay, and ICU stay were similar in both groups. Mean volume of blood transfusion and cell saver re-transfusion were 8 ± 4 units and 1668 ± 202 mL, respectively, in Group 1 in comparison to 10 ± 6 units and 1910 ± 679 mL, respectively, in Group 2 with no significant difference (P = 0.09 and 0.167, respectively). The rates of infection and systemic complications (renal, respiratory, cardiovascular and neurological complications) were similar in both groups.

CONCLUSION

A MELD score > 20 may predict mortality after LDLT.

Sex differences in disease presentation, treatment and clinical outcomes of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: a single-centre cohort study

BACKGROUND

Although sex differences in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk are well known, it is unclear whether sex differences also exist in clinical presentation and survival outcomes once HCC develops.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study of 1886 HCC patients seen in a US medical centre in 1998-2015. Data were obtained by chart review with survival data also by National Death Index search.

RESULTS

The cohort consisted of 1449 male and 437 female patients. At diagnosis, men were significantly younger than women (59.9±10.7 vs 64.0±11.6, p<0.0001). Men had significantly higher rates of tobacco (57.7% vs 31.0%, p<0.001) and alcohol use (63.2% vs 35.1%, p<0.001). Women were more likely to be diagnosed by routine screening versus symptomatically or incidentally (65.5% vs 58.2%, p=0.03) and less likely to present with tumours >5 cm (30.2% vs 39.8%, p=0.001). Surgical and non-surgical treatment utilisation was similar for both sexes. Men and women had no significant difference in median survival from the time of diagnosis (median 30.7 (range=24.5-41.3) vs 33.1 (range=27.4-37.3) months, p=0.84). On multivariate analysis, significant predictors for improved survival included younger age, surgical or non-surgical treatment (vs supportive care), diagnosis by screening, tumour within Milan criteria and lower Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score, but not female sex (adjusted HR=1.01, CI 0.82 to 1.24, p=0.94).

CONCLUSIONS

Although men have much higher risk for HCC development, there were no significant sex differences in disease presentation or survival except for older age and lower tumour burden at diagnosis in women. Female sex was not an independent predictor for survival.

Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score does not predict outcomes of hepatitis B-induced acute-on-chronic liver failure in transplant recipients

BACKGROUND

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a severe clinical entity and liver transplantation is the only definitive therapy to salvage these patients. However, the timing of liver transplant for these patients remains unclear.

METHODS

Seventy-eight patients undergoing liver transplantation because of hepatitis B ACLF were retrospectively analyzed from June 2004 to December 2010. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score for the post-transplantation outcomes were calculated.

RESULTS

The median age was 44 years (range, 25-64 years), serum bilirubin 418.53 μmol/L (range, 112.90-971.40 μmol/L), INR 3.177 (range, 1.470-9.850), and creatinine 70.84 μmol/L (range, 12.39-844.1 μmol/L); the median MELD score was 32 (range, 21-53) and CTP score 12 (8-15). The AUCs of MELD and CTP scores for 3-month mortality were 0.581 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.421-0.742; sensitivity, 87.5%; specificity, 32.8%) and 0.547 (95% CI, 0.401-0.693; sensitivity, 75%; specificity, 41%), respectively. Meanwhile, there were no significant differences in hospital mortality (P = .252) or morbidity (P = .338) between the patients with MELD score ≥30 and those <30.

CONCLUSIONS

MELD score had no predictive ability for the outcomes of patients with hepatitis B ACLF after orthotopic liver transplantation.

Sarcopenia in the prognosis of cirrhosis: Going beyond the MELD score

Estimating the prognosis of patients with cirrhosis remains challenging, because the natural history of cirrhosis varies according to the cause, presence of portal hypertension, liver synthetic function, and the reversibility of underlying disease. Conventional prognostic scoring systems, including the Child-Turcotte-Pugh score or model for end-stage liver diseases are widely used; however, revised models have been introduced to improve prognostic performance. Although sarcopenia is one of the most common complications related to survival of patients with cirrhosis, the newly proposed prognostic models lack a nutritional status evaluation of patients. This is reflected by the lack of an optimal index for sarcopenia in terms of objectivity, reproducibility, practicality, and prognostic performance, and of a consensus definition for sarcopenia in patients with cirrhosis in whom ascites and edema may interfere with body composition analysis. Quantifying skeletal muscle mass using cross-sectional abdominal imaging is a promising tool for assessing sarcopenia. As radiological imaging provides direct visualization of body composition, it is useful to evaluate sarcopenia in patients with cirrhosis whose body mass index, anthropometric measurements, or biochemical markers are inaccurate on a nutritional assessment. Sarcopenia defined by cross-sectional imaging-based muscular assessment is prevalent and predicts mortality in patients with cirrhosis. Sarcopenia alone or in combination with conventional prognostic systems shows promise for a cirrhosis prognosis. Including an objective assessment of sarcopenia with conventional scores to optimize the outcome prediction for patients with cirrhosis needs further research.

Serum tests, liver stiffness and artificial neural networks for diagnosing cirrhosis and portal hypertension

BACKGROUND

The diagnostic performance of biochemical scores and artificial neural network models for portal hypertension and cirrhosis is not well established.

AIMS

To assess diagnostic accuracy of six serum scores, artificial neural networks and liver stiffness measured by transient elastography, for diagnosing cirrhosis, clinically significant portal hypertension and oesophageal varices.

METHODS

202 consecutive compensated patients requiring liver biopsy and hepatic venous pressure gradient measurement were included. Several serum tests (alone and combined into scores) and liver stiffness were measured. Artificial neural networks containing or not liver stiffness as input variable were also created.

RESULTS

The best non-invasive method for diagnosing cirrhosis, portal hypertension and oesophageal varices was liver stiffness (C-statistics=0.93, 0.94, and 0.90, respectively). Among serum tests/scores the best for diagnosing cirrhosis and portal hypertension and oesophageal varices were, respectively, Fibrosis-4, and Lok score. Artificial neural networks including liver stiffness had high diagnostic performance for cirrhosis, portal hypertension and oesophageal varices (accuracy>80%), but were not statistically superior to liver stiffness alone.

CONCLUSIONS

Liver stiffness was the best non-invasive method to assess the presence of cirrhosis, portal hypertension and oesophageal varices. The use of artificial neural networks integrating different non-invasive tests did not increase the diagnostic accuracy of liver stiffness alone.

Variability in bioavailability of small molecular tyrosine kinase inhibitors

Small molecular tyrosine kinase inhibitors (smTKIs) are in the centre of the very quickly expanding area of personalized chemotherapy and oral applicability thereof. The number of drugs in this class is rapidly growing, with twenty current approvals by both the European Medicines Agency (EMA) and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The drugs are, however, generally characterized by a poor oral, and thus variable, bioavailability. This results in significant variation in plasma levels and exposure. The cause is a complex interplay of factors, including poor aqueous solubility, issued permeability, membrane transport and enzymatic metabolism. Additionally, food and drug-drug interactions can play a significant role. The issues related with an impaired bioavailability generally receive little attention. To the best of our knowledge, this article is the first to provide an overview of the factors that determine the bioavailability of the smTKIs.

Transplantation of autologous mesenchymal stem cells for end-stage liver cirrhosis: a meta-analysis based on seven controlled trials

Background. The bone marrow-derived mesenchymal stem cells (BM-MSCs) have demonstrated great potential as regenerative medicine in different therapeutic applications. This study aims to pool previous controlled clinical trials to make an update assessment of the effectiveness of BM-MSC transplantation on end-stage liver cirrhosis. Methods. Relevant studies published between January 1990 and June 2014 were searched among Pubmed, Embase, and ClinicalTrial.gov. A meta-analysis was performed to assess the effect of BM-MSCs on liver function indicators, including Models of End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score, serum albumin (g/L), total bilirubin (mg/dl), Prothrombin concentration (%), and alanine aminotransferase (ALT) (U/L). Results. BM-MSCs therapy could significantly improve liver function in patients with end-stage liver cirrhosis, in terms of MELD score, serum albumin, total bilirubin, and prothrombin concentration, at least during the half year after transplantation. Conclusions. Due to BM-MSCs' immunomodulatory functions and the potential to differentiate into hepatocytes, they are a promising therapeutic agent to liver cirrhosis. Considering currently available evidence, this therapy is relatively safe and effective in improving liver function. However, how different variables should be controlled to optimize the therapeutic effect is still not clear. Thus, future mechanism studies and clinical trials are required for this optimization.

Novel management of acute or secondary biliary liver conditions using hepatically differentiated human dental pulp cells

The current definitive treatment for acute or chronic liver condition, that is, cirrhosis, is liver transplantation from a limited number of donors, which might cause complications after donation. Hence, bone marrow stem cell transplantation has been developed, but the risk of carcinogenesis remains. We have recently developed a protocol for hepatic differentiation of CD117(+) stem cells from human exfoliated deciduous teeth (SHED). In the present study, we examine whether SHED hepatically differentiated (hd) in vitro could be used to treat acute liver injury (ALI) and secondary biliary cirrhosis. The CD117(+) cell fraction was magnetically separated from SHED and then differentiated into hepatocyte-like cells in vitro. The cells were transplanted into rats with either ALI or induced secondary biliary cirrhosis. Engraftment of human liver cells was determined immunohistochemically and by in situ hybridization. Recovery of liver function was examined by means of histochemical and serological tests. Livers of transplanted animals were strongly positive for human immunohistochemical factors, and in situ hybridization confirmed engraftment of human hepatocytes. The tests for recovery of liver function confirmed the presence of human hepatic markers in the animals' blood serum and lack of fibrosis and functional integration of transplanted human cells into livers. No evidence of malignancy was found. We show that in vitro hdSHED engraft morphologically and functionally into the livers of rats having acute injury or secondary biliary cirrhosis. SHED are readily accessible adult stem cells, capable of proliferating in large numbers before differentiating in vitro. This makes SHED an appropriate and safe stem cell source for regenerative medicine.

Thymosinβ4: a novel assessed biomarker of the prognosis of acute-on-chronic liver failure patient?

BACKGROUND AND AIM

In the previous study, we found serum thymosin β4 (Tβ4) levels were associated with mortality in liver failure patients. In this study, we try to evaluate the prognostic value of Tβ4 in acute-on-chronic liver failure (AoCLF) patients by comparing with the Child-Pugh (CTP) and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores.

METHODS

Serum Tβ4 levels were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), and the CTP and MELD scores were calculated for each patient.

RESULTS

Serum Tβ4 levels of AoCLF patients [0.4120 (0.2447-0.7492)μg/mL] were lower than healthy controls [9.2710 (5.1660-13.2485)μg/mL] (P<0.001). AoCLF patients were divided into survival and death group. Compared to survivors, lower Tβ4 concentrations, higher CTP and MELD scores (P<0.001, respectively) were observed in AoCLF patients who died. There were negative correlations between Tβ4 levels and CTP scores (P<0.001), MELD scores (P<0.001). A CTP score of 11.5, a MELD score of 21.63 and a Tβ4 concentration of 0.3840μg/mL were identified as the cut-off values for the stratification of AoCLF patients. MELD≥21.63 combined with Tβ4<0.3840μg/mL can more exactly discriminate between the patients who would survive and die.

CONCLUSIONS

Serum Tβ4 concentration has appreciable value to evaluate the short-term prognosis of AoCLF patients, although Tβ4 is not superior to MELD. The combination of Tβ4 and MELD scores are more effective in assessing the prognosis of AoCLF patients.

Peripheral vein infusion of autologous mesenchymal stem cells in Egyptian HCV-positive patients with end-stage liver disease

Introduction

We have assessed the utility of autologous mesenchymal stem cell (MSC) peripheral vein infusion as a possible therapeutic modality for patients with end-stage liver diseases.

Methods

Forty patients with post-hepatitis C virus (HCV) end-stage liver disease were randomized into two groups: Group 1 (GI): 20 patients who received granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF) for 5 days followed by autologous MSCs peripheral-vein infusion and group 2 (GII): 20 patients who received regular liver-supportive treatment only (control group).

Results

In MSC-infused patients (GI), 54% showed near normalization of liver enzymes and improvement in liver synthetic function. Significant changes were reported in albumin (P = 0.000), bilirubin (P = 0.002), increased international normalized ratio (INR) (P = 0.017), prothrombin concentration (P = 0.029) and alanine transaminase (ALT) levels (P = 0.029), with stabilization of clinical and biochemical status in 13% of cases. None of the patients in GII showed any significant improvement. Hepatic fibrosis was assessed in GI by detection of procollagen IIIC peptide level (PIIICP) and procollagen III N peptide level (PIIINP). The pretreatment values of s-PIIICP and s-PIIINP were 9.4 ± 4.2 and 440 ± 189, respectively, with a decrease to 8.1 ± 2.6 and 388 ± 102, respectively, 3 months after MSC therapy. However, the difference was statistically nonsignificant (P = 0.7). A significant correlation coefficient was reported after 3 months between the s-PIIINP and prothrombin concentration (P = -0.5) and between s-PIIICP and ascites (P = 0.550).

Conclusions

First, autologous MSC infusion into a peripheral vein is as effective as the previously reported intrahepatic infusion. Second, MSCs have a supportive role in the treatment of end-stage liver disease, with satisfactory tolerability and beneficial effects on liver synthetic functions and hepatic fibrosis. Third, IV infusion of MSCs after G-CSF mobilization improves s-albumin within the first 2 weeks and prothrombin concentration and alanine Taransaminase after 1 month. According to the data from this current study and those previously reported by our group, we recommend further studies on patients’ infusion with pure CD133 and CD34 followed by IV infusion of in vitro-differentiated MSCs within 1 week and another infusion after 3 months.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01729221. Registered 17 November 2012.

Prognostic performance of a series of model for end-stage liver disease and respective Δ scores in patients with hepatitis B acute-on-chronic liver failure

The present study aimed to compare the short-term prognostic performance of a series of model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and respective delta (Δ) scores scoring systems in a population with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure (ACHBLF), and to investigate the potential effects from antivirals. A total of 77 patients with ACHBLF of mean age 46 years, 82% male, with 58.4% receiving antivirals, were recruited for this study. The Δ scores for MELDs were defined as the changes one week after admission. Thirty-eight (49%) patients (22 treated with antivirals) died within three months. The mean MELD and ΔMELD scores of the survival group were 19.5±4.4 and 0.2±3.7 respectively, and those of the mortality group were 23.5±5.5 and 7.9±6, respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for MELD, integrated MELD (iMELD), MELD with the addition of serum sodium (MELD-Na), updated MELD (upMELD), MELD excluding the international normalized ratio (INR; MELD-XI), United Kingdom MELD (UKMELD) and their Δ scores were 0.72, 0.81, 0.77, 0.69, 0.65, 0.77 and 0.86, 0.83, 0.83, 0.82, 0.79 and 0.79, respectively. iMELD and MELD-Na significantly improved the accuracy of MELD (P<0.05). A cut-off value of 41.5 for the iMELD score can prognose 71% of mortalities with a specificity of 85%. In each pair of models, the Δ score was superior to its counterpart, particularly when applied to patients with MELD ≤30. Decreased accuracy was observed for all models in the subset of patients treated with antivirals, although their baseline characteristics were comparable to those of untreated patients, while iMELD, MELD-Na and respective Δ models remained superior with regard to the predictability. The iMELD and MELD-Na models predicted three-month mortality more accurately, while the Δ models were superior to their counterparts when MELD ≤30; however, their performance was altered by antivirals, and thus requires optimization.

Clinical presentation and survival of Asian and non-Asian patients with HCV-related hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is an important cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in Asians; however, it is often overlooked due to the high prevalence of hepatitis B virus in Asians. This study examines HCV-related HCC in Asians.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 792 consecutive Asian (n = 220) and non-Asian (n = 572) patients with HCV-related HCC identified at Stanford University Medical Center using International Classification of Diseases-9 diagnosis between July 1996 and June 2012.

RESULTS

Asian patients were much older [66 (38-88) vs. 56 (31-87) years, P < 0.0001] and more likely to be female (33 vs. 19 %, P < 0.0001). A larger proportion of Asians were diagnosed with HCC within 2 years of HCV diagnosis (35 vs. 20 %, P = 0.001). Asian patients were more likely to undergo palliative therapy (46 vs. 28 %) and less likely to be listed for liver transplantation (20 vs. 48 %, P < 0.001), despite similar rates of meeting Milan criteria (52 vs. 58 %, P = 0.16). Overall, there was a trend for higher median survival rates in Asians (30 vs. 21 months, P = 0.091). Asians had higher long-term survival with palliative therapy only (5-year survival: 28 vs. 10 %, P < 0.0001); however, survival was similar among patients listed for liver transplantation.

CONCLUSIONS

There were distinct differences in clinical presentations of Asian and non-Asian patients with HCV-related HCC. Asians with HCV-related HCC are less likely to undergo liver transplantation and more likely to have delayed HCV diagnosis. Improved strategies in HCV screening in Asians are needed, as it may lead to earlier diagnosis and treatment of HCV infection and possible prevention of HCC development.

Curative Effects of ZHENG-Based Fuzheng-Huayu Tablet on Hepatitis B Caused Cirrhosis Related to CYP1A2 Genetic Polymorphism

Aim. To investigate the correlation of Fuzheng-Huayu tablet (FZHY) efficacy on chronic hepatitis B caused cirrhosis (HBC) and single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of CYP1A2. Methods. After 111 cases of HBC with 69 excess, 21 deficiency-excess, and 21 deficiency ZHENGs (ZHENG, also called traditional Chinese medicine syndrome) were treated by FZHY for 6 months, clinical symptoms, Child-Pugh score, and ZHENG score were observed. Three of the SNPs in CYP1A2 gene were detected and analyzed using SNaPshot assay. Results. In ZHENG efficacy between effective and invalid groups, there was significant difference (P < 0.001). The ZHENG deficiency was significantly correlated with FZHY efficacy (P < 0.05). AA genotype of CYP1A2-G2964A was significantly different with GG genotype (P < 0.05) between CYP1A2 Genotypes and FZHY efficacy on ZHENG. More importantly, GA plus AA genotype of CYP1A2-G2964A was significantly different with deficiency ZHENG (P < 0.05) between CYP1A2 genotypes and FZHY efficacy on ZHENG. Conclusion. FZHY improved ZHENG score of HBC, and these efficacies may relate to CYP1A2-G2964A sites. It was suggested that CYP1A2-G2964A locus is probably a risk factor for ZHENG-based FZHY efficacy in HBC.