Vitamin D deficiency in Kazakhstan: Cross-Sectional study

Vitamin D Status, VDR, and TLR Polymorphisms and Pulmonary Tuberculosis Epidemiology in Kazakhstan

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis (TB) and vitamin D deficiency remain major public health problems in Kazakhstan. Due to the high incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis in the country and based on the importance of vitamin D in the modulation of the immune response and the association of its deficiency with many health conditions, the aim of our research was to study the vitamin D status, VDR and TLR gene polymorphisms, and pulmonary tuberculosis epidemiology in Kazakhstan.

METHODS

A case-control study included 411 individuals diagnosed with pulmonary TB and 686 controls with no family history of pulmonary tuberculosis. Concentrations of serum vitamin D (25-(OH)D) levels were measured by electrochemiluminescence immunoassay. The gene polymorphisms were determined by real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) allelic discrimination assay using TaqMan probes. The association between the risk of pulmonary TB and polymorphisms was evaluated using multimodal logistic regression and assessed with the ORs, corresponding to 95% Cis, and the significance level was determined as p < 0.05.

RESULTS

1097 individuals were recruited from 3 different regions of Kazakhstan. Biochemical data showed vitamin D deficiency (25-(OH)D < 20 ng/mL) was present in both groups, with the case group accounting for almost 95% and 43.7% in controls. Epidemiological data revealed that socioeconomic factors such as BMI < 25 kg/m2 (p < 0.001), employment (p < 0.001), diabetes (p < 0.001), and vitamin D deficiency (p < 0.001) were statistically different between case and control groups. Logistic regression analysis, adjusted by sex, age, BMI, residence, employment, smoking, alcohol consumption, and diabetes, showed that T/T polymorphism of the VDR gene (rs1544410, OR = 1.97, 95% CI: 1.04-3.72, p = 0.03) and A/A polymorphism of the TLR8 gene (rs3764880, OR = 2.44, 95% CI: 1.20-4.98, p = 0.01) were associated with a high risk of developing pulmonary tuberculosis.

CONCLUSIONS

Vitamin D deficiency remains prevalent in our study cohort and is associated with TB progression. Socioeconomic determinants such as unemployment, BMI under 25 kg/m2, and diabetes are the main risk factors for the development of pulmonary TB in our study. A/A polymorphism of TLR8 (rs3764880) and T/T polymorphism (BsmI, rs1544410) of VDR genes may act as biomarkers for pulmonary tuberculosis in the Kazakh population.

The effect of vitamin D on adolescents' primary dysmenorrhea

Vitamin D receptor (VDR) expression in the female reproductive tract explains the regulatory role of vitamin D on inflammatory cytokine and prostaglandin (PGD) synthesis. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of vitamin D on adolescents' primary dysmenorrhea and the relationship between Vit. D and adolescents' primary dysmenorrhea. Eighty-five adolescents were included in the current study. After a detailed evaluation, pelvic sonography was performed for all participants to rule out any pelvic pathology. Blood samples were collected to measure thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH), prolactin, glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1C), and 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D). Participants were administered vitamin D (50,000 IU weekly for five months), and their dysmenorrhea symptoms were evaluated before and after this period using the Visual Analog Scale (VAS) and the Verbal Multidimensional Scoring (VMS). The mean VAS and VMS scores of dysmenorrhea statistically decreased from 8.7±0.91 and 2.65±0.93 to 4.8±0.75 and 0.80±0.75, respectively, after vitamin D intake (p=0.03 and 0.025, respectively). Significant negative associations between 25(OH)D and VAS (R = -0.886; p<0.00001) and VMS of dysmenorrhea (R = -0.885; p<0.00001) were detected in this study. Vit. D could be a useful therapeutic option to reduce the severity of primary dysmenorrhea and could limit the use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs.

Plasma 25-Hydroxyvitamin D Level and VDR Gene Single Nucleotide Polymorphism rs2228570 Influence on COVID-19 Susceptibility among the Kazakh Ethnic Group-A Pilot Study

Low plasma levels of the vitamin D metabolite 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] and the vitamin D receptor (VDR) gene single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) have been associated with the body's susceptibility to infectious diseases, including COVID-19. In this pilot retrospective study, representatives of the Kazakh population (central Kazakhstan) were divided into groups based on the test for IgM and IgG for coronavirus infection. We compared the 25(OH)D plasma levels and concluded that the COVID-19-positive group values (25.17 ng/mL ± 16.65) were statistically lower (p = 0.0114) compared to the COVID-19-negative ones (35.58 ng/mL ± 20.67). There was no association between age, gender and 25(OH)D concentration within the groups (p > 0.05). The genotyping of rs2228570 was performed using a TaqMan Real-Time PCR assay. Allele C predominated among the COVID-19-negative participants and significantly reduced the likelihood of coronavirus infection (p < 0.0001; OR = 0.0804; 95% CI 0.02357-0.2798). There were no statistically significant differences in the frequencies of the A, G and T alleles in the studied groups (p > 0.05). The GG genotype of rs2228570 was associated with a 4.131-fold increased likelihood of COVID-19 infection (p = 0.0288; χ2 = 5.364; OR = 4.131; 95% CI 1.223-13.71). Comprehensive studies are required to determine whether low 25(OH)D plasma concentrations and genetic background represent a risk factor for COVID-19 infection.

Sex differences in vitamin D metabolism, serum levels and action

The ubiquity of vitamin D metabolising enzymes and vitamin D receptors in mammalian organisms suggests that vitamin D has pleiotropic effects. There are quite a few studies indicating the anticancer, cardioprotective and antidiabetic effects of vitamin D; however, the best-documented actions of vitamin D are the regulation of Ca-phosphate balance and its effect on immune function.Vitamin D levels in organisms are modulated by many environmental and non-environmental factors. One potential factor that may influence vitamin D levels and effects is the sex of the individuals studied. This review focuses on the scientific evidence indicating different synthesis and metabolism of vitamin D in females and males, mainly from PubMed database sources. The article verifies the sex differences in vitamin D levels reported around the world. Moreover, the different effects of vitamin D on the musculoskeletal, cardiovascular, nervous and immune systems, as well as cancer in males and females, were discussed.Most studies addressing sex differences in vitamin D levels and effects are observational studies with conflicting results. Therefore, carefully designed clinical trials and experiments on animal models should be carried out to determine the role of non-environmental factors that may differentiate vitamin D levels in females and males.

Cost-utility analysis of total knee arthroplasty alone and in comparison with post-surgical rehabilitation and conservative treatment in the Republic of Kazakhstan

BACKGROUND

Despite ample international knowledge on cost-effectiveness of total knee arthroplasty (TKA), it has never been a subject of investigation in Kazakhstan or other post-Soviet economies. Our study aimed to carry-out the cost-utility analysis of TKA alone and in comparison with post-surgical rehabilitation and conservative treatment at health care facilities of Kazakhstan.

METHODS

Two hundred and forty four patients with knee osteoarthritis (KOA) who underwent TKA in orthopedic departments of Almaty, Nur-Sultan and Semey hospitals between January 1, 2019 and September 30, 2019 were followed-up for 12 months. The health-related quality of life was measured by the EQ-5D utility and Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index was used to measure the patients' health status. The costs were estimated from the view of health care provider. We calculated the cost per QALY, the Cost-Utility Ratio and the Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio.

RESULTS

At the time of 12-month follow-up patients who received TKA alone or with the course of rehabilitation showed benefit over patients from the group of conservative treatment in terms of overall health status. Mean QALY gained at 12 months constituted 1.66 for the group that received TKA with rehabilitation, 1.48 for the group that received TKA alone and 0.24 for the group that received conservative treatment. Mean cost per QALY gained was USD 30 795.75 for KOA patients under conservative treatment, USD 6 323.69 for KOA patients subjected to TKA and USD 2 670.32 for KOA patients with rehabilitation course after TKA.

CONCLUSION

Both TKA and TKA with rehabilitation could be considered as highly cost-effective interventions. The data obtained could be of interest for policy makers, medical professionals and KOA patients.

Self-reported consumption frequency of meat and fish products among young adults in Kazakhstan

Background: Meat and dairy products are important ingredients in Kazakhstan, although there are indications that high consumption of red and processed meat is associated with a risk of several non-communicable diseases and has an adverse impact on the environment. Aim: The aim of this study was to investigate the dietary habits of young adults in Kazakhstan, particularly meat and fish consumption frequency among university students in five regions of Kazakhstan. Methods: The assessment of meat and fish consumption was based on the food frequency questionnaire. Region of residence, age, sex, weight, height and parental education were also self-reported. Results: Meat consumption among the participants was lower than recommended consumption of 1500 g per week in Kazakhstan but almost two-fold higher than the World Cancer Research Fund recommendations of 500 g per week. Approximately 24% of the participants reported to consume meat every day. Only 8.6% of the participants reported fish consumption in line with the recommendation of approximately 270 g per week in Kazakhstan. Meat and fish consumption was fairly homogeneous across regions and sex. Conclusion: The results from this study contribute to the relatively limited information on meat and fish consumption in Kazakhstan. Further knowledge on dietary habits and probably improved nutrition recommendations on meat consumption in Kazakhstan are needed to protect public health and the environment.

Dietary supplements and bariatric surgery

Bariatric surgery or weight loss surgery has been in practice for achieving significant weight loss in patients who have failed to achieve weight loss after pharmacological interventions. The rising cases of obesity are a triggering factor for more bariatric surgeries worldwide. Interestingly, sustained weight loss achieved post-bariatric surgery offers metabolic advantages, and patients show improved glucose and lipid metabolisms. Bariatric surgery is directly linked to higher incidences of vitamin, mineral, and trace element deficiencies, thus making patients susceptible to anemia, osteoporosis, and cardiomyopathy. Reduced nutrient absorption capacity, dietary changes, dietary restriction, and altered gastrointestinal tract morphology are some reasons for nutritional deficiency observed in post-bariatric surgery procedures. Micro-and-macronutrient deficiency observed in patients during the postoperative phase requires continuous monitoring of nutritional parameters. Therefore, adequate multivitamin and mineral supplements become essential to prevent/overcome micronutrient deficiencies. Bariatric surgery also raises the risk of small for gestational age (SGA) babies. Hence, a 12 - 24 months gap is recommended between bariatric surgery and pregnancy to achieve desired weight loss targets. The topic of this review is the impact of bariatric surgery procedures on vitamin and mineral absorption and the role of dietary supplements in maintaining a healthy nutritional balance during the postoperative phase.

Epitopes specificity of antibodies to thyroid peroxidase in patients with Graves’ disease, Hashimoto’s thyroiditis and overlap-syndrome

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Further research that may shed light on specificity of MAbs in various TAIDs is strongly needed.

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Heterogeneity of epitopes recognized by anti-TPO in patients with HT, GD and overlap-syndrome may help to clarify specificity of MAbs in various TAIDs.

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Various MAbs in HT, GD and overlap-syndrome is different and this might be influenced by concentration of TPO in blood serum.

Background

Antibodies against thyroid peroxidase (anti-TPO) serve as clinical markers of thyroid autoimmune diseases (TAIDs). By trying to elucidate the causes of heterogeneity in autoantibody levels among patients with different TAIDs it becomes possible to clarify the pathophysiology of GD and HT.

Objective

To investigate the heterogeneity of epitopes recognized by anti-TPO in patients with Hashimoto’s thyroiditis (HT), Graves’ disease (GD) and overlap-syndrome.

Methods

We carried out a cross-sectional study on 398 patients with GD, HT and overlap syndrome and analyzed the specificity of epitopes and binding constants of TPO with monoclonal antibodies (MAbs). Ten MAbs to TPO were used, of which five were reactive with native TPO and the rest were reactive with denaturated TPO.

Results

The autoantibodies in blood serum of HT patients inhibited the binding of MAb63 more significantly than those in serum of GD patients: 59.62 % versus 54.02 %, respectively (p = 0.001). The anti-TPOs in serum of GD patients inhibited the binding of MAb77 more significantly than those in serum of HT patients: 54.36 % versus 51.13 %, respectively (p = 0.047). The binding of MAb45 was more inhibited in serum of patients with anti-TPO concentration over 1000 IU/ml (58.36 %). The blood serum of patients with overlap-syndrome showed less significant inhibition of MAb63 binding than that of patients with no overlap-syndrome: 52.47 % versus 58.81 %, respectively (p = 0.043).

Conclusion

Mapping the epitopes to TPO with the help of MAbs may improve the differential diagnosis between different thyroid autoimmunities.

Global differences in vitamin D status and dietary intake: a review of the data

BACKGROUND

Internationally, concern has been repeatedly raised about the little notable progress in the collection, analysis and use of population micronutrient status and deficiency data globally. The need for representative status and intake data for vitamin D has been highlighted as a research priority for well over a decade.

AIM AND METHODS

A narrative review which aims to provide a summary and assessment of vitamin D nutritional status data globally. This review divides the world into the Food and Agriculture Organisation's (FAO) major regions: the Americas, Europe, Oceania, Africa and Asia. Emphasis was placed on published data on the prevalence of serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) < 25/30 and <50 nmol/L (reflecting vitamin D deficiency and inadequacy, respectively) as well as vitamin D intake, where possible from nationally representative surveys.

RESULTS

Collating data from the limited number of available representative surveys from individual countries might suggest a relatively low overall prevalence of vitamin D deficiency in South America, Oceania and North America, whereas there is more moderate prevalence in Europe and Asia, and possibly Africa. Overall, the prevalence of serum 25(OH)D < 25/30 and <50 nmol/L ranges from ~5 to 18% and 24 to 49%, respectively, depending on FAO world region. Usual intakes of vitamin D can also vary by FAO world region, but in general, with a few exceptions, there are very high levels of inadequacy of vitamin D intake.

CONCLUSIONS

While the burden of vitamin D deficiency and inadequacy varies by world regions and not just by UVB availability, the global burden overall translates into enormous numbers of individuals at risk.

Urinary Phytoestrogen Metabolites Positively Correlate with Serum 25(OH)D Level Based on National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2009-2010

Studies showed that vitamin D (25-hydroxyvitamin D) level in the human blood circulation could be affected by exogenous estrogen exposure. This study aims to explore the relationships between urinary phytoestrogens metabolites and serum total 25(OH)D in general population, urinary phytoestrogens metabolites (daidzein, enterodiol, enterolactone, equol, genistein and o-desmethylangolensin). Totally 2,609 adults ≥6 y old from the 2009-2010 National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES) were recruited into the cross-sectional analyses and information including demographic, socioeconomic, examinations and laboratory test were collected. All analyses were performed using Stata13.0, one-way analysis of variance and multivariable regression were utilised according to data characteristics, respectively. It showed that age, race, education level, body mass index (BMI), and sampling season had significant effects on serum 25(OH)D level (all p<0.001). In the whole population, urinary enterodiol and equol were significantly positively associated with serum total 25(OH)D level (β=0.86, 95%CI=0.08-1.65, p<0.05; β=1.68, 95%CI=0.91-2.45, p<0.001). Equol was also found significantly positively correlated with total 25(OH)D in both female and male separately (β=1.69, 95%CI=0.51-2.87, p<0.05; β=1.66, 95%CI=0.63-2.69, p<0.05). Phytoestrogen concentrations in the urinary and 25(OH)D levels in the serum had proved a positive correlation in our study, which provide theoretical basis and reference for the dietary nutrient intake in the population.

Epidemiology of Gastrointestinal Disease among Children and Adolescents in Kazakhstan: 2012–2019

BACKGROUND: Gastrointestinal diseases are important trigger of public health concern in pediatric population. Non treated pathologies led to chronic inflammatory processes in adulthood. AIM: With respect to the lack of international studies on epidemiology of gastrointestinal disease in pediatric population, this study was aimed at analysis of national and local incidence rates of gastrointestinal disorders among children and adolescents in Kazakhstan over the period from 2012 to 2019. METHODS: This was a retrospective cross-sectional study located on South part of Kazakhstan and based on the data obtained from the Republican Center for Health Development – the major data source on the country’s health statistics. From this, we extracted information on children (0–14 years) and adolescents (15–17 years) with gastrointestinal disease (K00-K95 International Classification of Diseases, Revision 10 codes). We calculated incidence rates for the whole country and Turkestan province. RESULTS: The national incidence of pediatric disease was characterized by relative stability, and was 7760.4 per 100,000 population in 2017. The incidence of peptic ulcers and gallbladder disease in adolescents substantially exceeded that in children. At provincial level the incidence of gastritis/duodenitis and peptic ulcers was gradually declining, while that of gallbladder disease was subjected to growth over the past years. Adolescents had higher rates of gastrointestinal disease both at national and provincial levels. CONCLUSION: The analysis of national and local incidence rates of gastrointestinal disorders among children and adolescents in Kazakhstan showed that more studies are needed to obtain in-depth understanding of risk factors associated with gastrointestinal disease in child and adolescent population of Kazakhstan, including the prevalence of Helicobacter pylori infection. Besides, a national registry on pediatric gastrointestinal disease should be envisaged to overcome the lack of essential data.

Micronutrients deficiences in patients after bariatric surgery

Bariatric surgery is an effective option for managing obesity and has gained general acceptance among patients in recent years. Generally, despite the high caloric intake, a bad nutritional habit of obese people results in the deficiency of several vitamins, minerals, and trace elements essential for body metabolism and normal physiological processes. Additionally, the current bariatric surgical approaches such as sleeve gastrectomy (SG), Roux-en-Y-gastric bypass (RYGB), laparoscopic adjustable gastric banding (LAGB), and jejunoileal bypass (JIB) can cause or exacerbate these deficiencies. Based on several reports, it appears that the various bariatric surgical procedures affect nutrient absorption differently. Being purely restrictive, LAGB and SG affect the absorption of iron, selenium, and vitamin B₁₂, while RYGB, JIB, and biliopancreatic diversion have a more profound impact on the absorption of essential vitamins, minerals, and trace elements. Nutritional deficiencies in vitamins, minerals, and trace elements may follow bariatric surgery and are associated with clinical manifestations and diseases, including anemia, ataxia, hair loss, and Wernicke encephalopathy. The present review summarizes some of the major vitamin and micronutrient deficiencies associated with bariatric surgery, particularly those presented post-surgically. To avoid any adverse consequences of vitamin and trace element deficiency, proper monitoring and tests are recommended at any stage, from pre- to post-surgery (periodical check-up), followed by specific and individual nutritional supplementation treatments and a proper healthy diet.

Impact of vitamin D deficiency on COVID-19

Background & aims

COVID-19 has emerged as a global pandemic affecting millions of people. Vitamin D deficiency is one of the risk factors for increased susceptibility to COVID-19. This study aimed to examine the correlation between the prevalence of vitamin D deficiency and COVID-19 infection and mortality rates among the adult population in European and Asian continents.

Methods

Prevalence of vitamin D deficiency in each country was retrieved through literature searching on PubMed® database for the last ten years. As of December, 31^st 2020, COVID-19 infections and mortalities per million population were extracted from the ‘real time’ statistics of the Worldometer website. The association between both vitamin D deficiency and COVID-19 infections and mortalities were explored.

Results

Forty seven countries were included in the analysis. The prevalence of vitamin D deficiency ranged from 6.9 to 81.8% in European countries and 2.0–87.5% in Asian countries. Significantly positive correlations were observed for both COVID-19 infection (r = 0.76; p < 0.001) and mortality rates (r = 0.75; p < 0.001) in the Asian continent. The correlation values for the infections and mortality rates in the European continent were (r = 0.37; p = 0.08) and (r = 0.43; p = 0.04) respectively. When both the continents were combined, the correlation results for both infection (r = 0.42; p = 0.003) and mortality (r = 0.35; p = 0.016) rates with vitamin D deficiency values remained significant.

Conclusion

Prevalence of vitamin D deficiency was significantly associated with the mortality rate of COVID-19 in Europe and Asia. The association between the infection rate and prevalence of vitamin D deficiency was significant for Asia only. Both the associations were significant when the two continents were combined in the analysis. Therefore we suggest that vitamin D supplementation could play a key role in the prevention and/or treatment of the COVID-19 patients.

Impact of the vitamin D deficiency on COVID-19 infection and mortality in Asian countries

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

COVID-19 is a pandemic that has affected beyond 100 million and caused nearly 3 million deaths globally. Vitamin D is a known risk factor for COVID-19. Therefore, we aimed to investigate the association of prevalence of vitamin D deficiency and mean vitamin D level with COVID-19 infection and mortality in Asia, predicting with other confounding factors such as median age, obesity, and diabetes.

METHODS

COVID-19 infections and mortalities among the Asian countries were retrieved from the Worldometer website. Information on prevalence of vitamin D deficiency and mean vitamin D values in each Asian country was retrieved through literature searching on PubMed® and Google scholar. The associations between COVID-19 infections and mortalities with prevalence of vitamin D deficiency and mean vitamin D level were explored with correlation coefficients. As a predictive analysis, multiple linear regression was carried out with all confounders.

RESULTS

Positive correlations were observed for prevalence of vitamin D deficiency with COVID-19 infections (r = 0.55; p = 0.01; R² = 0.31) and mortalities (r = 0.50; p = 0.01; R² = 0.25). Moreover, the associations for the COVID-19 infections and mortalities improved to r = 0.76 (p = 0.002; R² = 0.58) and r = 0.65 (p = 0.03; R² = 0.42), respectively, after predicting with confounding factors. Similarly, mean vitamin D level had a significant negative correlation with COVID-19 infections (r = -0.77; p = 0.04; R² = 0.59) and mortalities (r = -0.80; p = 0.03; R² = 0.63) when combining with confounders.

CONCLUSION

Prevalence of vitamin D deficiency is significantly positively associated whereas the mean vitamin D level is significantly negatively associated with both infection and mortality rate of COVID-19 among Asian countries upon predicting with all confounders.

Analysis of the association of BRAFV600E mutation and Ki-67 overexpression with clinical and pathological characteristics in papillary thyroid cancer

In recent years, many studies were dedicated to the search for genetic markers in thyroid malignancies, including papillary thyroid cancer. This study was designed to investigate the prevalence of BRAFV600E mutation in the PTC in the Kazakh population, to evaluate the relationship between BRAF V600E mutation status and the clinicopathological features of PTC. Besides, we aimed at assessing of the relationship between the high proliferation index and the clinicopathological features of PTC and also between the concomitant coexistence of BRAFV600E and the high proliferative index with clinicopathological features of PTC. We carried out a cross-sectional study on 123 patients with PTC of Kazakh ethnicity and analyzed their clinical, laboratory, and genetic findings. The study groups were pooled based on the presence of mutated or wild-type BRAFV600E and quantitative assessment of Ki-67 marker expression. In the course of our study, we found that the age of patients from the group of BRAF gene mutation was significantly higher than that of patients from the wild-type group (48.63 ± 14.07 years versus 40.23 ± 14.34 years) (t = - 3.257; p = 0.001). Correlation analysis between BRAF mutation, Ki-67 expression, their combination and various clinical and pathological parameters in PTC patients showed that older age was positively correlated with higher frequency of mutant BRAF gene (r = 0.284; p < 0.001), while more advanced stage of tumor was positively correlated with higher expression of Ki-67 (r = 0.307; p < 0.001). To understand the significance of detecting the BRAFV600E mutation and an increased level of Ki-67 expression in the choice of patient therapy tactics, larger studies are required with patient survival as one of the primary outcomes.

Clinical characteristics and risk factors for disease severity and mortality of COVID-19 patients with diabetes mellitus in Kazakhstan: A nationwide study

BACKGROUND

Diabetes mellitus (DM) is associated with higher risk of developing infectious disease and COVID-19 is not the exception. There is a need to generate more data on clinical characteristics and risks of COVID19 patients presenting with DM. In this retrospective study we aimed to report on demographic features, clinical data, and outcomes of COVID-19 patients with DM in comparison with age- and sex-matched patients without DM.

METHODS

This was a retrospective study that relied on the nationwide data on all COVID-19 patients who were diagnosed from 14 March to 18 April, 2020. Overall, there were 31 cases with DM for which we randomly matched 4 patients without DM by age and sex.

RESULTS

COVID-19 patients with associated DM had less beneficial outcomes and more severe disease course both at hospital admission and final diagnosis, as compared with the age and sex-matched non-DM patients. Diabetics were more predisposed to impaired breathing (29.0 % versus 4.9 % in controls), nausea/vomiting (6.5 % versus 0 % in controls) and weakness/lethargy (45.2 % versus 26.0 % in controls). Finally, 48.4 % of diabetics showed the signs of pneumonia on CT scans versus 20.3 % of non-diabetics (p = 0.001), and 32.3 % of DM patients were admitted to intensive care units as compared with just 5.7 % of non-DM patients (p<0.001).

CONCLUSION

There is a need to envisage early status monitoring and supportive care in this vulnerable category of patients to enable better prognosis.

Anticipating the Need for Healthcare Resources Following the Escalation of the COVID-19 Outbreak in the Republic of Kazakhstan

Objectives

The lack of advance planning in a public health emergency can lead to wasted resources and inadvertent loss of lives. This study is aimed at forecasting the needs for healthcare resources following the expansion of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in the Republic of Kazakhstan, focusing on hospital beds, equipment, and the professional workforce in light of the developing epidemiological situation and the data on resources currently available.

Methods

We constructed a forecast model of the epidemiological scenario via the classic susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) approach. The World Health Organization’s COVID-19 Essential Supplies Forecasting Tool was used to evaluate the healthcare resources needed for the next 12 weeks.

Results

Over the forecast period, there will be 104 713.7 hospital admissions due to severe disease and 34 904.5 hospital admissions due to critical disease. This will require 47 247.7 beds for severe disease and 1929.9 beds for critical disease at the peak of the COVID-19 outbreak. There will also be high needs for all categories of healthcare workers and for both diagnostic and treatment equipment. Thus, Republic of Kazakhstan faces the need for a rapid increase in available healthcare resources and/or for finding ways to redistribute resources effectively.

Conclusions

Republic of Kazakhstan will be able to reduce the rates of infections and deaths among its population by developing and following a consistent strategy targeting COVID-19 in a number of inter-related directions.

Epidemiological Characteristics and Forecast of COVID-19 Outbreak in the Republic of Kazakhstan

BACKGROUND

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic entered Kazakhstan on 13 March 2020 and quickly spread over its territory. This study aimed at reporting on the rates of COVID-19 in the country and at making prognoses on cases, deaths, and recoveries through predictive modeling. Also, we attempted to forecast the needs in professional workforce depending on implementation of quarantine measures.

METHODS

We calculated both national and local incidence, mortality and case-fatality rates, and made forecast modeling via classic susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) model. The Health Workforce Estimator tool was utilized for forecast modeling of health care workers capacity.

RESULTS

The vast majority of symptomatic patients had mild disease manifestations and the proportion of moderate disease was around 10%. According to the SEIR model, there will be 156 thousand hospitalized patients due to severe illness and 15.47 thousand deaths at the peak of an outbreak if no measures are implemented. Besides, this will substantially increase the need in professional medical workforce. Still, 50% compliance with quarantine may possibly reduce the deaths up to 3.75 thousand cases and the number of hospitalized up to 9.31 thousand cases at the peak.

CONCLUSION

The outcomes of our study could be of interest for policymakers as they help to forecast the trends of COVID-19 outbreak, the demands for professional workforce, and to estimate the consequences of quarantine measures.

Plasma 25-Hydroxyvitamin D Levels and VDR Gene Expression in Peripheral Blood Mononuclear Cells of Leukemia Patients and Healthy Subjects in Central Kazakhstan

Low blood levels of the vitamin D metabolite 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] have been associated with an increased risk and poorer outcomes of various cancers, including hematological malignancies. The Central Kazakhstan area has a relatively high incidence rate of leukemia. However, the relationship between vitamin D status and leukemia or other types of cancer in Kazakhstan has not yet been addressed. Therefore, in this first pilot single-center study conducted in Central Kazakhstan, we compared plasma levels of 25(OH)D and the vitamin D receptor (VDR) gene expression levels in peripheral blood mononuclear cells of patients with leukemia and demographically matching healthy volunteers. The levels of 25(OH)D in patients were found to be significantly lower (10.8 ± 7.0 ng/mL; n = 31) than in healthy subjects (21.6 ± 7.8 ng/mL; n = 34; p < 0.0001). A similar difference was observed in both younger (<60 years old) and older (>60 years old) participants, though there was no association between 25(OH)D concentration and age within the patient group. In female patients, 25(OH)D levels were significantly lower than in male patients (p = 0.04). No significant seasonal variations of 25(OH)D were observed in either the patient or the control group. VDR gene expression levels appeared to be similar in leukemia patients and healthy subjects, and no correlation between the cellular VDR expression and plasma 25(OH)D concentrations was observed in either group of participants. We did not observe a significant association of 25(OH)D or VDR levels and overall survival of leukemia patients. This observational study conducted for the first time in Kazakhstan supports previous findings demonstrating reduced blood 25(OH)D levels in cancer (leukemia) patients. Larger studies are required to determine whether low 25(OH)D plasma concentrations represent a risk factor for leukemia development and/or progression.