Sensitivity of wastewater-based epidemiology for detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in a low prevalence setting

Utilizing wastewater surveillance to model behavioural responses and prevent healthcare overload during "Disease X" outbreaks

During the COVID-19 pandemic, healthcare systems worldwide faced severe strain. This study, utilizing wastewater virus surveillance, identified that periodic spontaneous avoidance behaviours significantly impacted infectious disease transmission during rapid and intense outbreaks. To incorporate these behaviours into disease transmission analysis, we introduced the Su-SEIQR model and validated it using COVID-19 wastewater data from Beijing and Hong Kong. The results demonstrated that the Su-SEIQR model accurately reflected trends in susceptible populations and confirmed cases during the COVID-19 pandemic, highlighting the role of spontaneous collective avoidance behaviours in generating periodic fluctuations. These fluctuations helped reduce infection peaks, thereby alleviating pressure on healthcare systems. However, the effect of these spontaneous behaviours on mitigating healthcare overload was limited. Consequently, we incorporated healthcare capacity constraints into the model, adjusting parameters to further guide population behaviours during the pandemic, aiming to keep the outbreak within manageable limits and reduce strain on healthcare resources. This study provides robust support for the development of environmental and public health policies during pandemics by constructing an innovative transmission model, which effectively prevents healthcare overload. Additionally, this approach can be applied to managing future outbreaks of unknown viruses or "Disease X".

Academic institution extensive, building-by-building wastewater-based surveillance platform for SARS-CoV-2 monitoring, clinical data correlation, and potential national proxy

In this work, we report on the performance of an extensive, building-by-building wastewater surveillance platform deployed across 38 locations of the largest private university system in Mexico, spanning 19 of the 32 states, to detect SARS-CoV-2 genetic materials during the COVID-19 pandemic. Sampling took place weekly from January 2021 and June 2022. Data from 343 sampling sites was clustered by campus and by state and evaluated through its correlation with the seven-day average of daily new COVID-19 cases in each cluster. Statistically significant linear correlations (p-values below 0.05) were found in 25 of the 38 campuses and 13 of the 19 states. Moreover, to evaluate the effectiveness of epidemiologic containment measures taken by the institution across 2021 and the potential of university campuses as representative sampling points for surveillance in future public health emergencies in the Monterrey Metropolitan Area, correlation between new COVID-19 cases and viral loads in weekly wastewater samples was found to be stronger in Dulces Nombres, the largest wastewater treatment plant in the city (Pearson coefficient: 0.6456, p-value: 6.36710-8), than in the largest university campus in the study (Pearson coefficient: 0.4860, p-value: 8.288x10-5). However, when comparing the data after urban mobility returned to pre-pandemic levels, correlation levels in both locations became comparable (0.894 for the university campus and 0.865 for Dulces Nombres). This work provides a basic framework for the implementation and analysis of similar decentralized surveillance platforms to address future sanitary emergencies, allowing for an efficient return to priority in-person activities while preventing university campuses from becoming transmission hotspots.

Measuring SARS-CoV-2 RNA in Bangkok wastewater treatment plants and estimating infected population after fully opening the country in 2023, Thailand

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has been employed for monitoring the presence of SARS-CoV-2 infected population. Herein, the study aims to apply the WBE for surveillance and monitoring SARS-CoV-2 in Bangkok, where the highest official covid-19 cases reported in Thailand, during the fully opening for international tourists in early 2023. A total of 200 wastewater samples (100 influent and 100 effluent samples) were collected from 10 wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) during January-May 2023. SARS-CoV-2 RNA was detected by real time qRT-PCR with accounting for 51% (102/200). Of these, 88% (88/100) and 14% (14/100) were detected in influent and effluent samples, respectively. The SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentration was detected in ranged of 4.76 × 102-1.48 × 105 copies/L. The amount of SARS-CoV-2 RNA has increased approximately 4 times from the lag phase (January-March) to the log phase (April-May). Spearman's correlation coefficient revealed that correlation between estimated infected population and weekly reported cases was statistically significant (p-value = 0.017). SARS-CoV-2 RNA in influent had a statistically significant relationship with weekly reported cases (r = 0.481, p-value < 0.001). Lag time analysis revealed early warning 1-3 weeks before rising covid-19 cases observed. GIS was applied for spatial-temporal analysis at the province level, suggesting real time dashboard should be further developed.

Wastewater-based epidemiology framework: Collaborative modeling for sustainable disease surveillance

Many wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) programs are being implemented worldwide due to their usefulness in monitoring residents' health. Modeling wastewater dynamics in outbreak scenarios can provide important data for designing wastewater surveillance plans. For outbreak modeling to be effective, researchers must coordinate with public health authorities and laboratory services, using frameworks to ensure that their modeling and output data are relevant for informed decision-making. However, theoretical and institutional frameworks typically omit modeling, and the connection between theoretical frameworks and models is often unrecognized. A framework that surpasses theoretical conceptualization for promoting collaboration between actors by integrating modeling can achieve the required synchrony toward sustainable wastewater surveillance plans. First, we build on an existing theoretical framework to create a collaborative framework that integrates modeling and suggests stakeholder activities for designing WBE programs. Then, we demonstrate our framework for developing a WBE plan via a COVID-19 case study where we answer when, how often, and where to sample wastewater to detect and monitor an outbreak. We evaluate the results in space and time for three outbreak phases (early detection, peak, and tail). The modeling outputs indicate the need for different sampling strategies for these outbreak phases. Our results also quantify the differences in the likelihood of capturing viral events in wastewater between the sampling hours at different disease phases for COVID-19 and various spatial locations in the sewer network. This framework lays the foundation for sustainable WBE to improve the detection efficiency of wastewater surveillance plans.

Association between confirmed COVID-19 cases at hospitals and SARS-CoV-2 levels in municipal wastewater during the pandemic and endemic phases

COVID-19 is now considered endemic in many countries. On May 8, 2023, Japan reclassified COVID-19 from a pandemic to an endemic status, shifting surveillance from universal to sentinel reporting and transitioning the testing and treatment cost of COVID-19 from public funding to individual health insurance coverage. Restrictions on movement, events, and business hours were lifted, potentially increasing cases and complicating tracking. Monitoring hospital cases remains essential to protect high-risk inpatients from nosocomial infections. In this study, 13,812 COVID-19 cases in 12 hospitals were analyzed and the results revealed a strong correlation between SARS-CoV-2 levels in municipal wastewater and weekly new cases during both the pandemic period (February 15, 2021 - February 26, 2023; Pearson's r = 0.8321) and the endemic period (May 8, 2023 - October 1, 2023; Pearson's r = 0.7501). SARS-CoV-2 RNA levels in wastewater from municipal catchment areas showed a stronger correlation with the number of COVID-19 cases at hospitals than did RNA levels in wastewater from the catchment area where the hospitals are located. The difference in correlations was more pronounced during the endemic period. During the endemic period, measurements of SARS-CoV-2 RNA levels in samples obtained from larger sewersheds may be more effective in capturing the overall trends of COVID-19 cases in a region. In other words, during the endemic period, municipal wastewater surveillance may reflect the number of COVID-19 cases in hospitals. Even for facilities that do not monitor SARS-CoV-2 in their own hospital wastewater, publicly available municipal wastewater data can be used to estimate the number of COVID-19 cases in hospitals. Furthermore, COVID-19 infection control measures within hospitals can be evaluated by comparing the number of nosocomial infection patients based on the concentration of SARS-CoV-2 in municipal wastewater.

Wastewater-Based Epidemiological Surveillance in France: The SUM'EAU Network

Wastewater surveillance is a powerful public health tool which gained global prominence during the COVID-19 pandemic. This article describes the development and implementation of the national wastewater surveillance network in France: SUM'EAU. Preliminary work included defining a sampling strategy, evaluating/optimising analytical methods, launching a call for tenders to select network laboratories and producing wastewater monitoring indicators. SUM'EAU was then deployed in three stages: (i) a pilot study, (ii) the transfer of analytical activities from the National Reference Laboratory to four selected network laboratories, and (iii) the extension of the system to additional sampling sites. Currently, SUM'EAU monitors SARS-CoV-2 across 54 wastewater treatment plants in mainland France. Once a week on business days, 24 h flow-proportional composite samples are collected at plant inlets and transported at 5 °C (±3 °C) to partner laboratories for analysis. The analytical process involves sample concentration, RNA extraction, and digital RT-PCR/q-RT-PCR to detect and quantify the presence of the SARS-CoV-2 genome in wastewater. Subsequently, data are transferred to Santé publique France, the French National Public Health Agency, for analysis and interpretation. While SUM'EAU has been instrumental in monitoring the COVID-19 pandemic and holds significant potential for broader application, securing sustainable funding for its operation remains a major challenge.

Interpretation of COVID-19 Epidemiological Trends in Mexico Through Wastewater Surveillance Using Simple Machine Learning Algorithms for Rapid Decision-Making

Detection and quantification of disease-related biomarkers in wastewater samples, denominated Wastewater-based Surveillance (WBS), has proven a valuable strategy for studying the prevalence of infectious diseases within populations in a time- and resource-efficient manner, as wastewater samples are representative of all cases within the catchment area, whether they are clinically reported or not. However, analysis and interpretation of WBS datasets for decision-making during public health emergencies, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, remains an area of opportunity. In this article, a database obtained from wastewater sampling at wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) and university campuses in Monterrey and Mexico City between 2021 and 2022 was used to train simple clustering- and regression-based risk assessment models to allow for informed prevention and control measures in high-affluence facilities, even if working with low-dimensionality datasets and a limited number of observations. When dividing weekly data points based on whether the seven-day average daily new COVID-19 cases were above a certain threshold, the resulting clustering model could differentiate between weeks with surges in clinical reports and periods between them with an 87.9% accuracy rate. Moreover, the clustering model provided satisfactory forecasts one week (80.4% accuracy) and two weeks (81.8%) into the future. However, the prediction of the weekly average of new daily cases was limited (R2 = 0.80, MAPE = 72.6%), likely because of insufficient dimensionality in the database. Overall, while simple, WBS-supported models can provide relevant insights for decision-makers during epidemiological outbreaks, regression algorithms for prediction using low-dimensionality datasets can still be improved.

Wastewater-based estimation of temporal variation in shedding amount of influenza A virus and clinically identified cases using the PRESENS model

Wastewater-based estimation of infectious disease prevalence in real-time assists public health authorities in developing effective responses to current outbreaks. However, wastewater-based estimation for IAV remains poorly demonstrated, partially because of a lack of knowledge about temporal variation in shedding amount of an IAV-infected person. In this study, we applied two mathematical models to previously collected wastewater and clinical data from four U.S. states during the 2022/2023 influenza season, dominated by the H3N2 subtype. First, we modeled the relationship between the detection probability of IAV in wastewater and FluA case counts, using a logistic function. The model revealed that a 50 % probability of IAV detection in wastewater corresponds to 0.53 (95 % CrI: 0.35-0.78) cases per 100,000 people, as observed in clinical surveillance over two weeks. Next, we applied the previously developed PRESENS model to IAV wastewater concentration data from California, revealing rapid and prolonged virus shedding patterns. The estimated shedding model was incorporated into an extended version of the PRESENS model to assess the variability in the relationship between IAV concentrations and case numbers across other states, including Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Utah. As a result, our analysis demonstrated the effectiveness of normalizing IAV concentrations with PMMoV (Pepper mild mottle virus) to accurately understand spatial distribution patterns of IAV prevalence. We successfully estimated FluA case counts from wastewater concentrations within a factor of two for 80 % of data from a state where 34 % of the state population was monitored by wastewater surveillance. Importantly, wastewater-based estimates provided real-time or leading insights (0-2 days) compared to clinical case detection in the three states, enabling early understanding of the incidence trends by limiting delays in data publication. These findings highlight the potential of wastewater surveillance to detect IAV outbreaks in near real-time and enhance efficiency of the infectious disease management.

Evaluation of wastewater surveillance results for SARS-CoV-2 at the national scale in the Slovak Republic

As the COVID-19 transits to endemicity, the frequency of clinical testing and its utility for determining lineage prevalence has declined. This situation is not unique to Slovakia but reflects a global trend, as attention shifts from COVID-19 to other post-pandemic issues and emerging global health challenges. Nevertheless, the pandemic itself has spurred advancements in monitoring the epidemiological situation. At the beginning of the pandemic, genomic surveillance was carried out through sequencing of individual COVID-19 cases. Subsequently, many countries implemented wastewater surveillance to monitor the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 variants in the community. In the present study, we collected and analysed 1715 virus-positive samples from 64 wastewater treatment plants across Slovakia, serving 69 % of the population connected to the wastewater treatment pipelines. Here, we show that wastewater sequencing is effective in detecting the emergence of new virus lineages. Additionally, we can assume that wastewater surveillance provides results that are approximately consistent when compared with clinical testing at both national and city levels, concurrently providing information on variant lineages which have not been detected in clinical cases due to reduced clinical testing. Our study demonstrates and concludes the value of wastewater-based surveillance strategies in the Slovakia, establishing it as an important and supportive tool for monitoring public health and serving as an early warning system in times when clinical testing is either declining or unavailable.

Wastewater-based effective reproduction number and prediction under the absence of shedding information

Estimating effective reproduction number (Re) and predicting disease incidences are essential to formulate effective strategies for disease control. Although recent studies developed models for inferring Re from wastewater-based data, they require information on shedding dynamics. Here, we proposed a framework of Re estimation and prediction without shedding information. The framework consists of a space-state model for smoothing wastewater-based data and a renewal equation modified for wastewater-based data. The applicability of the framework was tested with simulated data and real-world data on Influenza A virus (IAV) and SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater in 2022/2023 season in the USA. We confirmed the state-space model effectively fits various simulated epidemic curves and real-world data. In simulations, we found wastewater-based Re (Reww) closely aligns with instantaneous clinical Re when shedding dynamics are rapid. For more prolonged shedding, Reww approximates a smoothed Re over time. We also observed the necessary sampling frequency to trace dynamics of wastewater concentration and Reww accurately in the framework varies depending on the precision of detection methods, the epidemic status, the transmissibility of infectious diseases, and shedding dynamics. By applying our framework to real-world data, we found Reww for SARS-CoV-2 showed similar trend and values to clinically-based Re. Reww for IAV ranged from 0.66 to 1.52 with a clear peak in the winter season, which agrees with previously reported Re. We also succeeded in predicting wastewater concentration in a few weeks from available wastewater-based data. These results indicate that our framework potentially enables near real-time monitoring of approximated Re and prediction of infectious disease dynamics through wastewater surveillance, which limits the delay between infection and reporting. Our framework is useful especially for regions where reliable clinical surveillance is not available and notifiable surveillance is abolished, and can be expanded to multiple infectious diseases that have been detected from wastewater.

Integrated environmental and clinical surveillance for the prevention of acute respiratory infections (ARIs) in indoor environments and vulnerable communities (Stell-ARI): Protocol

The epidemiological relevance of viral acute respiratory infections (ARIs) has been dramatically highlighted by COVID-19. However, other viruses cannot be neglected, such as influenza virus, respiratory syncytial virus, human adenovirus. These viruses thrive in closed spaces, influenced by human and environmental factors. High-risk closed communities are the most vulnerable settings, where the real extent of viral ARIs is often difficult to evaluate, due to the natural disease progression and case identification complexities. During the COVID-19 pandemic, wastewater-based epidemiology has demonstrated its great potential for monitoring the circulation and evolution of the virus in the environment. The "Prevention of ARIs in indoor environments and vulnerable communities" study (Stell-ARI) addresses the urgent need for integrated surveillance and early detection of ARIs within enclosed and vulnerable communities such as long-term care facilities, prisons and primary schools. The rapid transmission of ARIs in such environments underscores the importance of comprehensive surveillance strategies to minimise the risk of outbreaks and safeguard community health, enabling proactive prevention and control strategies to protect the health of vulnerable populations. This study consists of designing and validating tools for integrated clinical and environmental-based surveillance for each setting, coupled with analytical methods for environmental matrices. The clinical surveillance involves specialized questionnaires and nasopharyngeal swabs for virus identification, while the environmental surveillance includes air and surface microbiological and chemical monitoring, and virological analysis of wastewater. Integrating this information and the collection of behavioural and environmental risk factors into predictive and risk assessment models will provide a useful tool for early warning, risk assessment and informed decision-making. The study aims to integrate clinical, behavioural, and environmental data to establish and validate a predictive model and risk assessment tool for the early warning and risk management of viral ARIs in closed and vulnerable communities prior to the onset of an outbreak.

Inter-institutional laboratory standardization for SARS-CoV-2 surveillance through wastewater-based epidemiology applied to Mexico City

OBJECTIVES

Wastewater-based surveillance applied to SARS-CoV-2 viral load quantification for COVID-19 has become one of the most relevant complementary tools in epidemiologic prevention programs worldwide. However, this valuable decision-making tool still requires fine-tuning to produce comparable results between laboratories, especially when applied to the surveillance of megacities.

METHODS

Six laboratories across Mexico and one from the United States executed an interlaboratory study to set up a singular standardized protocol considering method cost, installed infrastructure, materials available, and supply availability for SARS-CoV-2 quantification from five Mexico City sampling sites across this megacity.

RESULTS

Comparable data from processing outcomes in the Mexican laboratories and in the external international laboratory serve as a validating data source. The Bland-Altman comparison showed consistency, with cycle threshold values within ±1.96 SD of SARS-CoV-2 genetic copies for the standard curve quantification, with a mismatch of two laboratories. In addition, MS2 bacteriophage recovery rates varied between 35% and 67% among all participating laboratories. Finally, the efficiency of viral genetic material recovered from all participating laboratories varied between 65% and 93% for the participating laboratories.

CONCLUSION

This work lays the foundation for extensive and continuous wastewater-based surveillance application across independent Mexican laboratories in a time- and resource-effective manner.

Monitoring an Emergent Pathogen at Low Incidence in Wastewater Using qPCR: Mpox in Switzerland

Wastewater-based epidemiology offers a complementary approach to clinical case-based surveillance of emergent diseases and can help identify regions with infected people to prioritize clinical surveillance strategies. However, tracking emergent diseases in wastewater requires reliance on novel testing assays with uncertain sensitivity and specificity. Limited pathogen shedding may cause detection to be below the limit of quantification or bordering the limit of detection. Here, we investigated how the definition of limit of detection for quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) impacts epidemiological insights during an mpox outbreak in Switzerland. 365 wastewater samples from three wastewater treatment plants in Switzerland from 9 March through 31 October 2022 were analyzed for mpox DNA using qPCR. We detected mpox DNA in 22% (79 of 365) wastewater samples based on a liberal definition of qPCR detection as any exponentially increasing fluorescence above the threshold. Based on a more restrictive definition as the lowest concentration at which there is 95% likelihood of detection, detection was 1% (5 of 365). The liberal definition shows high specificity (90%) and accuracy (78%), but moderate sensitivity (64%) when benchmarked against available clinical case reporting, which contrasts with higher specificity (98%) but lower sensitivity (10%) and accuracy (56%) of the 95% likelihood definition. Wastewater-based epidemiology applied to an emergent pathogen will require optimizing public health trade-offs between reporting data with high degrees of uncertainty and delaying communication and associated action. Information sharing with relevant public health stakeholders could couple early results with clear descriptions of uncertainty.Impact Statement: When a novel pathogen threatens to enter a community, wastewater-based epidemiology offers an opportunity to track its emergence and spread. However, rapid deployment of methods for to detect a novel pathogen may rely on assays with uncertain sensitivity and specificity. Benchmarking the detection of mpox DNA in Swiss wastewaters with reported clinical cases in 2022, we demonstrate how definitions of detection of a qPCR assay influence epidemiological insights from wastewater. The results highlight the need for information sharing between public health stakeholders that couple early insights from wastewater with descriptions of methodological uncertainty to optimize public health actions.

Jointly estimating epidemiological dynamics of Covid-19 from case and wastewater data in Aotearoa New Zealand

BACKGROUND

Timely and informed public health responses to infectious diseases such as COVID-19 necessitate reliable information about infection dynamics. The case ascertainment rate (CAR), the proportion of infections that are reported as cases, is typically much less than one and varies with testing practices and behaviours, making reported cases unreliable as the sole source of data. The concentration of viral RNA in wastewater samples provides an alternate measure of infection prevalence that is not affected by clinical testing, healthcare-seeking behaviour or access to care.

METHODS

We construct a state-space model with observed data of levels of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater and reported case incidence and estimate the hidden states of the effective reproduction number, R, and CAR using sequential Monte Carlo methods.

RESULTS

We analyse data from 1 January 2022 to 31 March 2023 from Aotearoa New Zealand. Our model estimates that R peaks at 2.76 (95% CrI 2.20, 3.83) around 18 February 2022 and the CAR peaks around 12 March 2022. We calculate that New Zealand's second Omicron wave in July 2022 is similar in size to the first, despite fewer reported cases. We estimate that the CAR in the BA.5 Omicron wave in July 2022 is approximately 50% lower than in the BA.1/BA.2 Omicron wave in March 2022.

CONCLUSIONS

Estimating R, CAR, and cumulative number of infections provides useful information for planning public health responses and understanding the state of immunity in the population. This model is a useful disease surveillance tool, improving situational awareness of infectious disease dynamics in real-time.

Estimating the COVID-19 prevalence from wastewater

Wastewater based epidemiology has become a widely used tool for monitoring trends of concentrations of different pathogens, most notably and widespread of SARS-CoV-2. Therefore, in 2022, also in Rhineland-Palatinate, the Ministry of Science and Health has included 16 wastewater treatment sites in a surveillance program providing biweekly samples. However, the mere viral load data is subject to strong fluctuations and has limited value for political deciders on its own. Therefore, the state of Rhineland-Palatinate has commissioned the University Medical Center at Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz to conduct a representative cohort study called SentiSurv, in which an increasing number of up to 12,000 participants have been using sensitive antigen self-tests once or twice a week to test themselves for SARS-CoV-2 and report their status. This puts the state of Rhineland-Palatinate in the fortunate position of having time series of both, the viral load in wastewater and the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in the population. Our main contribution is a calibration study based on the data from 2023-01-08 until 2023-10-01 where we identified a scaling factor ( 0.208 ± 0.031 ) and a delay ( 5.07 ± 2.30 days) between the virus load in wastewater, normalized by the pepper mild mottle virus (PMMoV), and the prevalence recorded in the SentiSurv study. The relation is established by fitting an epidemiological model to both time series. We show how that can be used to estimate the prevalence when the cohort data is no longer available and how to use it as a forecasting instrument several weeks ahead of time. We show that the calibration and forecasting quality and the resulting factors depend strongly on how wastewater samples are normalized.

SARS-CoV-2 viral titer measurements in Ontario, Canada wastewaters throughout the COVID-19 pandemic

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the Province of Ontario, Canada, launched a wastewater surveillance program to monitor SARS-CoV-2, inspired by the early work and successful forecasts of COVID-19 waves in the city of Ottawa, Ontario. This manuscript presents a dataset from January 1, 2021, to March 31, 2023, with RT-qPCR results for SARS-CoV-2 genes and PMMoV from 107 sites across all 34 public health units in Ontario, covering 72% of the province's and 26.2% of Canada's population. Sampling occurred 2-7 times weekly, including geographical coordinates, serviced populations, physico-chemical water characteristics, and flowrates. In doing so, this manuscript ensures data availability and metadata preservation to support future research and epidemic preparedness through detailed analyses and modeling. The dataset has been crucial for public health in tracking disease locally, especially with the rise of the Omicron variant and the decline in clinical testing, highlighting wastewater-based surveillance's role in estimating disease incidence in Ontario.

Statistical analysis of three data sources for Covid-19 monitoring in Rhineland-Palatinate, Germany

In Rhineland-Palatinate, Germany, a system of three data sources has been established to track the Covid-19 pandemic. These sources are the number of Covid-19-related hospitalizations, the Covid-19 genecopies in wastewater, and the prevalence derived from a cohort study. This paper presents an extensive comparison of these parameters. It is investigated whether wastewater data and a cohort study can be valid surrogate parameters for the number of hospitalizations and thus serve as predictors for coming Covid-19 waves. We observe that this is possible in general for the cohort study prevalence, while the wastewater data suffer from a too large variability to make quantitative predictions by a purely data-driven approach. However, the wastewater data and the cohort study prevalence are able to detect hospitalizations waves in a qualitative manner. Furthermore, a detailed comparison of different normalization techniques of wastewater data is provided.

SARS-CoV-2 wastewater surveillance in the Czech Republic: Spatial and temporal differences in SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations and relationship to clinical data and wastewater parameters

This study presents the results of systematic wastewater monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 RNA and basic wastewater parameters from four different wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) in the Czech Republic over the 2020-2022 epidemic. Two-step reverse-transcription quantitative PCR targeting genes encoding the N and Nsp12 proteins was employed to detect SARS-CoV-2 RNA loading in 420 wastewater samples. The results obtained were used to evaluate the potential of wastewater analysis for describing the epidemiological situation in cities of different sizes and determining temporal differences based on the prevailing SARS-CoV-2 variant. Strong correlations between the number of active and hospitalised COVID-19 cases in each WWTP catchment area and the concentration of SARS-CoV-2 RNA detected in the wastewater clearly demonstrated the suitability of this wastewater-based epidemiological approach for WWTPs of different sizes and characteristics, despite differences in SARS-CoV-2 variant waves, with some WWTPs showing high predictive potential. This study demonstrated on the data from the Czech Republic that targeted systematic monitoring of wastewater provides sufficiently robust data for surveillance of viral loads in sample populations, and thus contributes to preventing the spread of infection and subsequent introduction of appropriate measures.

Fate-and-transport modeling of SARS-CoV-2 for rural wastewater-based epidemiology application benefit

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) for the detection of agents of concern such as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) has been prevalent in literature since 2020. The majority of reported research focuses on large urban centers with few references to rural communities. In this research the EPA-Storm Water Management Model (EPA-SWMM) software was used to describe a small sewershed and identify the effects of temperature, temperature-affected decay rate, flow rate, flush time, fecal shedding rate, and historical infection rates during the spread of the Omicron variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus within the sewershed. Due to the sewershed's relative isolation from the rest of the city, its wastewater quality behavior is similar to a rural sewershed. The model was used to assess city wastewater sampling campaigns to best appropriate field and or lab equipment when sampling wastewater. An important aspect of the assessment was the comparison of SARS-CoV-2 quantification methods with specifically between a traditional microbiological lab (practical quantitation limit, PQL, 1 GC/mL) versus what can be known from a field method (PQL 10 GC/mL). Understanding these monitoring choices will help rural communities make decisions on how to best implement the collection and testing for WBE agents of concern. An important outcome of this work is the knowledge that it is possible to simulate a WBE agent of concern with reasonable precision, if uncertainties are incorporated into model sensitivity. These ideas could form the basis for future mixed monitoring-modeling studies that will enhance its application and therefore adoption of WBE techniques in communities of many sizes and financial means.

Urine biomarkers for Alzheimer's disease: A new opportunity for wastewater-based epidemiology?

While Alzheimer's disease (AD) diagnosis, management, and care have become priorities for healthcare providers and researcher's worldwide due to rapid population aging, epidemiologic surveillance efforts are currently limited by costly, invasive diagnostic procedures, particularly in low to middle income countries (LMIC). In recent years, wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has emerged as a promising tool for public health assessment through detection and quantification of specific biomarkers in wastewater, but applications for non-infectious diseases such as AD remain limited. This early review seeks to summarize AD-related biomarkers and urine and other peripheral biofluids and discuss their potential integration to WBE platforms to guide the first prospective efforts in the field. Promising results have been reported in clinical settings, indicating the potential of amyloid β, tau, neural thread protein, long non-coding RNAs, oxidative stress markers and other dysregulated metabolites for AD diagnosis, but questions regarding their concentration and stability in wastewater and the correlation between clinical levels and sewage circulation must be addressed in future studies before comprehensive WBE systems can be developed.

Wastewater-based reproduction numbers and projections of COVID-19 cases in three areas in Japan, November 2021 to December 2022

BackgroundWastewater surveillance has expanded globally as a means to monitor spread of infectious diseases. An inherent challenge is substantial noise and bias in wastewater data because of the sampling and quantification process, limiting the applicability of wastewater surveillance as a monitoring tool.AimTo present an analytical framework for capturing the growth trend of circulating infections from wastewater data and conducting scenario analyses to guide policy decisions.MethodsWe developed a mathematical model for translating the observed SARS-CoV-2 viral load in wastewater into effective reproduction numbers. We used an extended Kalman filter to infer underlying transmissions by smoothing out observational noise. We also illustrated the impact of different countermeasures such as expanded vaccinations and non-pharmaceutical interventions on the projected number of cases using three study areas in Japan during 2021-22 as an example.ResultsObserved notified cases were matched with the range of cases estimated by our approach with wastewater data only, across different study areas and virus quantification methods, especially when the disease prevalence was high. Estimated reproduction numbers derived from wastewater data were consistent with notification-based reproduction numbers. Our projections showed that a 10-20% increase in vaccination coverage or a 10% reduction in contact rate may suffice to initiate a declining trend in study areas.ConclusionOur study demonstrates how wastewater data can be used to track reproduction numbers and perform scenario modelling to inform policy decisions. The proposed framework complements conventional clinical surveillance, especially when reliable and timely epidemiological data are not available.

Environmental surveillance for COVID-19 using SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentration in wastewater - a study in District East, Karachi, Pakistan

Background

Wastewater-based surveillance is used to track the temporal patterns of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in communities. Viral RNA particle detection in wastewater samples can indicate an outbreak within a catchment area. We describe the feasibility of using a sewage network to monitor SARS-CoV-2 trend and use of genomic sequencing to describe the viral variant abundance in an urban district in Karachi, Pakistan. This was among the first studies from Pakistan to demonstrate the surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 from a semi-formal sewage system.

Methods

Four sites draining into the Lyari River in District East, Karachi, were identified and included in the current study. Raw sewage samples were collected early morning twice weekly from each site between June 10, 2021 and January 17, 2022, using Bag Mediated Filtration System (BMFS). Secondary concentration of filtered samples was achieved by ultracentrifugation and skim milk flocculation. SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations in the samples were estimated using PCR (Qiagen ProMega kits for N1 & N2 genes). A distributed-lag negative binomial regression model within a hierarchical Bayesian framework was used to describe the relationship between wastewater RNA concentration and COVID-19 cases from the catchment area. Genomic sequencing was performed using Illumina iSeq100.

Findings

Among the 151 raw sewage samples included in the study, 123 samples (81.5%) tested positive for N1 or N2 genes. The average SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations in the sewage samples at each lag (1-14 days prior) were associated with the cases reported for the respective days, with a peak association observed on lag day 10 (RR: 1.15; 95% Credible Interval: 1.10-1.21). Genomic sequencing showed that the delta variant dominated till September 2022, while the omicron variant was identified in November 2022.

Interpretation

Wastewater-based surveillance, together with genomic sequencing provides valuable information for monitoring the community temporal trend of SARS-CoV-2.

Funding

PATH, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and Global Innovation Fund.

Effectiveness of environmental surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 as an early-warning system: Update of a systematic review during the second year of the pandemic

The aim of this updated systematic review was to offer an overview of the effectiveness of environmental surveillance (ES) of SARS-CoV-2 as a potential early-warning system (EWS) for COVID-19 and new variants of concerns (VOCs) during the second year of the pandemic. An updated literature search was conducted to evaluate the added value of ES of SARS-CoV-2 for public health decisions. The search for studies published between June 2021 and July 2022 resulted in 1,588 publications, identifying 331 articles for full-text screening. A total of 151 publications met our inclusion criteria for the assessment of the effectiveness of ES as an EWS and early detection of SARS-CoV-2 variants. We identified a further 30 publications among the grey literature. ES confirms its usefulness as an EWS for detecting new waves of SARS-CoV-2 infection with an average lead time of 1-2 weeks for most of the publication. ES could function as an EWS for new VOCs in areas with no registered cases or limited clinical capacity. Challenges in data harmonization and variant detection require standardized approaches and innovations for improved public health decision-making. ES confirms its potential to support public health decision-making and resource allocation in future outbreaks.

The occurrence, ecological risk, and control of disinfection by-products from intensified wastewater disinfection during the COVID-19 pandemic

Increased disinfection of wastewater to preserve its microbiological quality during the coronavirus infectious disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic have inevitably led to increased production of toxic disinfection by-products (DBPs). However, there is limited information on such DBPs (i.e., trihalomethanes, haloacetic acids, nitrosamines, and haloacetonitriles). This review focused on the upsurge of chlorine-based disinfectants (such as chlorine, chloramine and chlorine dioxide) in wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) in the global response to COVID-19. The formation and distribution of DBPs in wastewater were then analyzed to understand the impacts of these large-scale usage of disinfectants in WWTPs. In addition, potential ecological risks associated with DBPs derived from wastewater disinfection and its receiving water bodies were summarized. Finally, various approaches for mitigating DBP levels in wastewater and suggestions for further research into the environmental risks of increased wastewater disinfection were provided. Overall, this study presented a comprehensive overview of the formation, distribution, potential ecological risks, and mitigating approaches of DBPs derived from wastewater disinfection that will facilitate appropriate wastewater disinfection techniques selection, potential ecological risk assessment, and removal approaches and regulations consideration.

Longitudinal and quantitative fecal shedding dynamics of SARS-CoV-2, pepper mild mottle virus, and crAssphage

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) emerged during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic as a scalable and broadly applicable method for community-level monitoring of infectious disease burden. The lack of high-resolution fecal shedding data for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) limits our ability to link WBE measurements to disease burden. In this study, we present longitudinal, quantitative fecal shedding data for SARS-CoV-2 RNA, as well as for the commonly used fecal indicators pepper mild mottle virus (PMMoV) RNA and crAss-like phage (crAssphage) DNA. The shedding trajectories from 48 SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals suggest a highly individualized, dynamic course of SARS-CoV-2 RNA fecal shedding. Of the individuals that provided at least three stool samples spanning more than 14 days, 77% had one or more samples that tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 RNA. We detected PMMoV RNA in at least one sample from all individuals and in 96% (352/367) of samples overall. CrAssphage DNA was detected in at least one sample from 80% (38/48) of individuals and was detected in 48% (179/371) of all samples. The geometric mean concentrations of PMMoV and crAssphage in stool across all individuals were 8.7 × 104 and 1.4 × 104 gene copies/milligram-dry weight, respectively, and crAssphage shedding was more consistent for individuals than PMMoV shedding. These results provide us with a missing link needed to connect laboratory WBE results with mechanistic models, and this will aid in more accurate estimates of COVID-19 burden in sewersheds. Additionally, the PMMoV and crAssphage data are critical for evaluating their utility as fecal strength normalizing measures and for source-tracking applications. IMPORTANCE This research represents a critical step in the advancement of wastewater monitoring for public health. To date, mechanistic materials balance modeling of wastewater-based epidemiology has relied on SARS-CoV-2 fecal shedding estimates from small-scale clinical reports or meta-analyses of research using a wide range of analytical methodologies. Additionally, previous SARS-CoV-2 fecal shedding data have not contained sufficient methodological information for building accurate materials balance models. Like SARS-CoV-2, fecal shedding of PMMoV and crAssphage has been understudied to date. The data presented here provide externally valid and longitudinal fecal shedding data for SARS-CoV-2, PMMoV, and crAssphage which can be directly applied to WBE models and ultimately increase the utility of WBE.

M. AH, Fernandez S, Huang AT, Vatanaprasan P, Jay DJ, Saethang T, Luk-in S, Storer RJ, Ounjai P, Devanga Ragupathi NK, Kanthawee P, Sano D, Furukawa T, Sei K, Leelahavanichkul A, Kanjanabuch T, Hirankarn N, Higgins PG, Kicic A, Singer AC, Chatsuwan T, Trowsdale S, Abe S, McLellan AD, Ishikawa H. COVID-19 monitoring with sparse sampling of sewered and non-sewered wastewater in urban and rural communities

Equitable SARS-CoV-2 surveillance in low-resource communities lacking centralized sewers is critical as wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) progresses. However, large-scale studies on SARS-CoV-2 detection in wastewater from low-and middle-income countries is limited because of economic and technical reasons. In this study, wastewater samples were collected twice a month from 186 urban and rural subdistricts in nine provinces of Thailand mostly having decentralized and non-sewered sanitation infrastructure and analyzed for SARS-CoV-2 RNA variants using allele-specific RT-qPCR. Wastewater SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentration was used to estimate the real-time incidence and time-varying effective reproduction number (Re). Results showed an increase in SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations in wastewater from urban and rural areas 14-20 days earlier than infected individuals were officially reported. It also showed that community/food markets were "hot spots" for infected people. This approach offers an opportunity for early detection of transmission surges, allowing preparedness and potentially mitigating significant outbreaks at both spatial and temporal scales.

Exploring the depth and breadth of the genomics toolbox during the COVID-19 pandemic: insights from Aotearoa New Zealand

BACKGROUND

Genomic technologies have become routine in the surveillance and monitoring of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, as evidenced by the millions of SARS-CoV-2 sequences uploaded to international databases. Yet the ways in which these technologies have been applied to manage the pandemic are varied.

MAIN TEXT

Aotearoa New Zealand was one of a small number of countries to adopt an elimination strategy for COVID-19, establishing a managed isolation and quarantine system for all international arrivals. To aid our response, we rapidly set up and scaled our use of genomic technologies to help identify community cases of COVID-19, to understand how they had arisen, and to determine the appropriate action to maintain elimination. Once New Zealand pivoted from elimination to suppression in late 2021, our genomic response changed to focusing on identifying new variants arriving at the border, tracking their incidence around the country, and examining any links between specific variants and increased disease severity. Wastewater detection, quantitation and variant detection were also phased into the response. Here, we explore New Zealand's genomic journey through the pandemic and provide a high-level overview of the lessons learned and potential future capabilities to better prepare for future pandemics.

CONCLUSIONS

Our commentary is aimed at health professionals and decision-makers who might not be familiar with genetic technologies, how they can be used, and why this is an area with great potential to assist in disease detection and tracking now and in the future.

Prolonged viral shedding from noninfectious individuals confounds wastewater-based epidemiology

Wastewater surveillance has been widely used to track and estimate SARS-CoV-2 incidence. While both infectious and recovered individuals shed virus into wastewater, epidemiological inferences using wastewater often only consider the viral contribution from the former group. Yet, the persistent shedding in the latter group could confound wastewater-based epidemiological inference, especially during the late stage of an outbreak when the recovered population outnumbers the infectious population. To determine the impact of recovered individuals' viral shedding on the utility of wastewater surveillance, we develop a quantitative framework that incorporates population-level viral shedding dynamics, measured viral RNA in wastewater, and an epidemic dynamic model. We find that the viral shedding from the recovered population can become higher than the infectious population after the transmission peak, which leads to a decrease in the correlation between wastewater viral RNA and case report data. Furthermore, the inclusion of recovered individuals' viral shedding into the model predicts earlier transmission dynamics and slower decreasing trends in wastewater viral RNA. The prolonged viral shedding also induces a potential delay in the detection of new variants due to the time needed to generate enough new cases for a significant viral signal in an environment dominated by virus shed by the recovered population. This effect is most prominent toward the end of an outbreak and is greatly affected by both the recovered individuals' shedding rate and shedding duration. Our results suggest that the inclusion of viral shedding from non-infectious recovered individuals into wastewater surveillance research is important for precision epidemiology.

Wastewater-based modeling, reconstruction, and prediction for COVID-19 outbreaks in Hungary caused by highly immune evasive variants

(MOTIVATION)

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has emerged as a promising approach for monitoring the COVID-19 pandemic, since the measurement process is cost-effective and is exposed to fewer potential errors compared to other indicators like hospitalization data or the number of detected cases. Consequently, WBE was gradually becoming a key tool for epidemic surveillance and often the most reliable data source, as the intensity of clinical testing for COVID-19 drastically decreased by the third year of the pandemic. Recent results suggests that the model-based fusion of wastewater measurements with clinical data and other indicators is essential in future epidemic surveillance.

(METHOD)

In this work, we developed a wastewater-based compartmental epidemic model with a two-phase vaccination dynamics and immune evasion. We proposed a multi-step optimization-based data assimilation method for epidemic state reconstruction, parameter estimation, and prediction. The computations make use of the measured viral load in wastewater, the available clinical data (hospital occupancy, delivered vaccine doses, and deaths), the stringency index of the official social distancing rules, and other measures. The current state assessment and the estimation of the current transmission rate and immunity loss allow a plausible prediction of the future progression of the pandemic.

(RESULTS)

Qualitative and quantitative evaluations revealed that the contribution of wastewater data in our computational epidemiological framework makes predictions more reliable. Predictions suggest that at least half of the Hungarian population has lost immunity during the epidemic outbreak caused by the BA.1 and BA.2 subvariants of Omicron in the first half of 2022. We obtained a similar result for the outbreaks caused by the subvariant BA.5 in the second half of 2022.

(APPLICABILITY)

The proposed approach has been used to support COVID management in Hungary and could be customized for other countries as well.

Wastewater surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 at intra-city level demonstrated high resolution in tracking COVID-19 and calibration using chemical indicators

Wastewater-based epidemiology has proven to be a supportive tool to better comprehend the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic. As the disease moves into endemic stage, the surveillance at wastewater sub-catchments such as pump station and manholes is providing a novel mechanism to examine the reemergence and to take measures that can prevent the spread. However, there is still a lack of understanding when it comes to wastewater-based epidemiology implementation at the smaller intra-city level for better granularity in data, and dilution effect of rain precipitation at pump stations. For this study, grab samples were collected from six areas of Seattle between March-October 2021. These sampling sites comprised five manholes and one pump station with population ranging from 2580 to 39,502 per manhole/pump station. The wastewater samples were analyzed for SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations, and we also obtained the daily COVID-19 cases (from individual clinical testing) for each corresponding sewershed, which ranged from 1 to 12 and the daily incidence varied between 3 and 64 per 100,000 of population. Rain precipitation lowered viral RNA levels and sensitivity of viral detection but wastewater total ammonia (NH4+-N) and phosphate (PO43--P) were shown as potential chemical indicators to calibrate/level out the dilution effect. These chemicals showed the potential in improving the wastewater surveillance capacity of COVID-19.

Wastewater-based prediction of COVID-19 cases using a highly sensitive SARS-CoV-2 RNA detection method combined with mathematical modeling

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has the potential to predict COVID-19 cases; however, reliable methods for tracking SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations (CRNA) in wastewater are lacking. In the present study, we developed a highly sensitive method (EPISENS-M) employing adsorption-extraction, followed by one-step RT-Preamp and qPCR. The EPISENS-M allowed SARS-CoV-2 RNA detection from wastewater at 50 % detection rate when newly reported COVID-19 cases exceed 0.69/100,000 inhabitants in a sewer catchment. Using the EPISENS-M, a longitudinal WBE study was conducted between 28 May 2020 and 16 June 2022 in Sapporo City, Japan, revealing a strong correlation (Pearson's r = 0.94) between CRNA and the newly COVID-19 cases reported by intensive clinical surveillance. Based on this dataset, a mathematical model was developed based on viral shedding dynamics to estimate the newly reported cases using CRNA data and recent clinical data prior to sampling day. This developed model succeeded in predicting the cumulative number of newly reported cases after 5 days of sampling day within a factor of √2 and 2 with a precision of 36 % (16/44) and 64 % (28/44), respectively. By applying this model framework, another estimation mode was developed without the recent clinical data, which successfully predicted the number of COVID-19 cases for the succeeding 5 days within a factor of √2 and 2 with a precision of 39 % (17/44) and 66 % (29/44), respectively. These results demonstrated that the EPISENS-M method combined with the mathematical model can be a powerful tool for predicting COVID-19 cases, especially in the absence of intensive clinical surveillance.

Sewershed surveillance as a tool for smart management of a pandemic in threshold countries. Case study: Tracking SARS-CoV-2 during COVID-19 pandemic in a major urban metropolis in northwestern Argentina

Wastewater-based epidemiology is an economical and effective tool for monitoring the COVID-19 pandemic. In this study we proposed sampling campaigns that addressed spatial-temporal trends within a metropolitan area. This is a local study of detection and quantification of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater during the onset, rise, and decline of COVID-19 cases in Salta city (Argentina) over the course of a twenty-one-week period (13 Aug to 30 Dec) in 2020. Wastewater samples were gathered from 13 sewer manholes specific to each sewershed catchment, prior to convergence or mixing with other sewer lines, resulting in samples specific to individual catchments with defined areas. The 13 sewershed catchments selected comprise 118,832 connections to the network throughout the city, representing 84.7 % (534,747 individuals) of the total population. The number of COVID19-related exposure and symptoms cases in each area were registered using an application developed for smartphones by the provincial government. Geographical coordinates provided by the devices were recorded, and consequently, it was possible to geolocalise all app-cases and track them down to which of the 13 sampling catchments belonged. RNA fragments of SARS-CoV-2 were detected in every site since the beginning of the monitoring, anticipating viral circulation in the population. Over the course of the 21-week study, the concentrations of SARS-CoV-2 ranged between 1.77 × 104 and 4.35 × 107 genome copies/L. There was a correspondence with the highest viral load in wastewater and the peak number of cases reported by the app for each catchment. The associations were evaluated with correlation analysis. The viral loads of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater were a feasible means to describe the trends of COVID-19 infections. Surveillance at sewershed scale, provided reliable and strategic information that could be used by local health stakeholders to manage the COVID-19 pandemic.

Towards Effective, Sustainable Solution for Hospital Wastewater Treatment to Cope with the Post-Pandemic Era

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) has spread across the globe since the end of 2019, posing significant challenges for global medical facilities and human health. Treatment of hospital wastewater is vitally important under this special circumstance. However, there is a shortage of studies on the sustainable wastewater treatment processes utilized by hospitals. Based on a review of the research trends regarding hospital wastewater treatment in the past three years of the COVID-19 outbreak, this review overviews the existing hospital wastewater treatment processes. It is clear that activated sludge processes (ASPs) and the use of membrane bioreactors (MBRs) are the major and effective treatment techniques applied to hospital wastewater. Advanced technology (such as Fenton oxidation, electrocoagulation, etc.) has also achieved good results, but the use of such technology remains small scale for the moment and poses some side effects, including increased cost. More interestingly, this review reveals the increased use of constructed wetlands (CWs) as an eco-solution for hospital wastewater treatment and then focuses in slightly more detail on examining the roles and mechanisms of CWs' components with respect to purifying hospital wastewater and compares their removal efficiency with other treatment processes. It is believed that a multi-stage CW system with various intensifications or CWs incorporated with other treatment processes constitute an effective, sustainable solution for hospital wastewater treatment in order to cope with the post-pandemic era.

Early detection of local SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks by wastewater surveillance: a feasibility study

Wastewater surveillance and quantitative analysis of SARS-CoV-2 RNA are increasingly used to monitor the spread of COVID-19 in the community. We studied the feasibility of applying the surveillance data for early detection of local outbreaks. A Monte Carlo simulation model was constructed, applying data on reported variation in RNA gene copy concentration in faeces and faecal masses shed. It showed that, even with a constant number of SARS-CoV-2 RNA shedders, the variation in concentrations found in wastewater samples will be large, and that it will be challenging to translate viral concentrations into incidence estimates, especially when the number of shedders is low. Potential signals for early detection of hypothetical outbreaks were analysed for their performance in terms of sensitivity and specificity of the signals. The results suggest that a sudden increase in incidence is not easily identified on the basis of wastewater surveillance data, especially in small sampling areas and in low-incidence situations. However, with a high number of shedders and when combining data from multiple consecutive tests, the performance of wastewater sampling is expected to improve considerably. The developed modelling approach can increase our understanding of the results from wastewater surveillance of SARS-CoV-2.

Hands off the Mink! Using Environmental Sampling for SARS-CoV-2 Surveillance in American Mink

Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, numerous non-human species were shown to be susceptible to natural infection by SARS-CoV-2, including farmed American mink. Once infected, American mink can transfer the virus from mink to human and mink to mink, resulting in a high rate of viral mutation. Therefore, outbreak surveillance on American mink farms is imperative for both mink and human health. Historically, disease surveillance on mink farms has consisted of a combination of mortality and live animal sampling; however, these methodologies have significant limitations. This study compared PCR testing of both deceased and live animal samples to environmental samples on an active outbreak premise, to determine the utility of environmental sampling. Environmental sampling mirrored trends in both deceased and live animal sampling in terms of percent positivity and appeared more sensitive in some low-prevalence instances. PCR CT values of environmental samples were significantly different from live animal samples' CT values and were consistently high (mean CT = 36.2), likely indicating a low amount of viral RNA in the samples. There is compelling evidence in favour of environmental sampling for the purpose of disease surveillance, specifically as an early warning tool for SARS-CoV-2; however, further work is needed to ultimately determine whether environmental samples are viable sources for molecular epidemiology investigations.

Application of neighborhood-scale wastewater-based epidemiology in low COVID-19 incidence situations

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE), an emerging approach for community-wide COVID-19 surveillance, was primarily characterized at large sewersheds such as wastewater treatment plants serving a large population. Although informed public health measures can be better implemented for a small population, WBE for neighborhood-scale sewersheds is less studied and not fully understood. This study applied WBE to seven neighborhood-scale sewersheds (average population of 1471) from January to November 2021. Community testing data showed an average of 0.004 % incidence rate in these sewersheds (97 % of monitoring periods reported two or fewer daily infections). In 92 % of sewage samples, SARS-CoV-2 N gene fragments were below the limit of quantification. We statistically determined 10-2.6 as the threshold of the SARS-CoV-2 N gene concentration normalized to pepper mild mottle virus (N/PMMOV) to alert high COVID-19 incidence rate in the studied sewershed. This threshold of N/PMMOV identified neighborhood-scale outbreaks (COVID-19 incidence rate higher than 0.2 %) with 82 % sensitivity and 51 % specificity. Importantly, neighborhood-scale WBE can discern local outbreaks that would not otherwise be identified by city-scale WBE. Our findings suggest that neighborhood-scale WBE is an effective community-wide disease surveillance tool when COVID-19 incidence is maintained at a low level.

Comparative Analysis of RNA-Extraction Approaches and Associated Influences on RT-qPCR of the SARS-CoV-2 RNA in a University Residence Hall and Quarantine Location

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) provides an early warning and trend analysis approach for determining the presence of COVID-19 in a community and complements clinical testing in assessing the population level, even as viral loads fluctuate. Here, we evaluate combinations of two wastewater concentration methods (i.e., ultrafiltration and composite supernatant-solid), four pre-RNA extraction modifications, and three nucleic acid extraction kits using two different wastewater sampling locations. These consisted of a quarantine facility containing clinically confirmed COVID-19-positive inhabitants and a university residence hall. Of the combinations examined, composite supernatant-solid with pre-RNA extraction consisting of water concentration and RNA/DNA shield performed the best in terms of speed and sensitivity. Further, of the three nucleic acid extraction kits examined, the most variability was associated with the Qiagen kit. Focusing on the quarantine facility, viral concentrations measured in wastewater were generally significantly related to positive clinical cases, with the relationship dependent on method, modification, kit, target, and normalization, although results were variable-dependent on individual time points (Kendall's Tau-b (τ) = 0.17 to 0.6) or cumulatively (Kendall's Tau-b (τ) = -0.048 to 1). These observations can support laboratories establishing protocols to perform wastewater surveillance and monitoring efforts for COVID-19.

Implementing wastewater surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 on a university campus: Lessons learned

Wastewater surveillance, also known as wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE), has been successfully used to detect SARS-CoV-2 and other viruses in sewage in many locations in the United States and globally. This includes implementation of the surveillance on college and university campuses. A two-phase study was conducted during the 2020-2021 academic year to test the feasibility of a WBE system on campus and to supplement the clinical COVID-19 testing performed for the student, staff, and faculty body. The primary objective during the Fall 2020 semester was to monitor a large portion of the on-campus population and to obtain an understanding of the spreading of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. The Spring 2021 objective was focused on selected residence halls and groups of residents on campus, as this was more efficient and relevant for an effective follow-up response. Logistical problems and planning oversights initially occurred but were corrected with improved communication and experience. Many lessons were learned, including effective mapping, site planning, communication, personnel organization, and equipment management, and obtained along the way, thereby paving an opportune guide for future planning efforts. PRACTITIONER POINTS: WBE was successful in the detection of many SARS-CoV-2 variants incl. Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, Lambda, Mu, and Omicron. Careful planning and contingencies were essential for a successful implementation of a SARS-CoV-2 monitoring program. A surveillance program may be important for detection and monitoring of other public health relevant targets in wastewater incl. bacteria, viruses, fungi and viruses. Diverse lessons were learned incl. effective mapping, site planning, communication, personnel organization, and equipment management, thereby providing a guide for future planning efforts.

"pySewage": a hybrid approach to predict the number of SARS-CoV-2-infected people from wastewater in Brazil

It is well known that the new coronavirus pandemic has global environmental, public health, and economic implications. In this sense, this study aims to monitor SARS-CoV-2 in the largest wastewater treatment plant of Goiânia, which processes wastewater from more than 700,000 inhabitants, and to correlate the molecular and clinical data collected. Influent and effluent samples were collected at Dr. Helio de Seixo Britto's wastewater treatment plant from January to August 2021. Viral concentration was performed with polyethylene glycol before viral RNA extraction. Real-time qPCR (N1 and N2 gene assays) was performed to detect and quantify the viral RNA present in the samples. The results showed that 43.63% of the samples were positive. There is no significant difference between the detection of primers N1 (mean 3.23 log10 genome copies/L, std 0.23) and N2 (mean 2.95 log10 genome copies/L, std 0.29); also, there is no significant difference between the detection of influent and effluent samples. Our molecular data revealed a positive correlation with clinical data, and infection prevalence was higher than clinical data. In addition, we developed a user-friendly web application to predict the number of infected people based on the detection of viral load present in wastewater samples and may be applied as a public policy strategy for monitoring ongoing outbreaks.

Year-long wastewater monitoring for SARS-CoV-2 signals in combined and separate sanitary sewers

COVID-19 wastewater-based epidemiology has been performed in catchments of various sizes and sewer types with many short-term studies available and multi-seasonal studies emerging. The objective of this study was to compare weekly observations of SARS-CoV-2 genes in municipal wastewater across multiple seasons for different systems as a factor of sewer type (combined, separate sanitary) and system size. Sampling occurred following the first wave of SARS-CoV-2 cases in the study region (June 2020) and continued through the third wave (May 2021), the period during which clinical testing was widely available and different variants dominated clinical cases. The strongest correlations were observed between wastewater N1 concentrations and the cumulative clinical cases reported in the 2 weeks prior to wastewater sampling, followed by the week prior, new cases, and the week after wastewater sampling. Sewer type and size did not necessarily explain the strength of the correlations, indicating that other non-sewer factors may be impacting the observations. In-system sampling results for the largest system sampled are presented for 1 month. Removing wet weather days from the data sets improved even the flow-normalized correlations for the systems, potentially indicating that interpreting results during wet weather events may be more complicated than simply accounting for dilution. PRACTITIONER POINTS: SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater correlated best with total clinical cases reported in 2 weeks before wastewater sampling at the utility level. Study performed when clinical testing was widespread during the year after the first COVID-19 wave in the region. Sewer type and size did not necessarily explain correlation strength between clinical cases and wastewater-based epidemiology results. Removing wet weather days improved correlations for 3/4 utilities studied, including both separate sanitary and combined sewers.

Year-long wastewater monitoring for SARS-CoV-2 signals in combined and separate sanitary sewers

COVID-19 wastewater-based epidemiology has been performed in catchments of various sizes and sewer types with many short-term studies available and multi-seasonal studies emerging. The objective of this study was to compare weekly observations of SARS-CoV-2 genes in municipal wastewater across multiple seasons for different systems as a factor of sewer type (combined, separate sanitary) and system size. Sampling occurred following the first wave of SARS-CoV-2 cases in the study region (June 2020) and continued through the third wave (May 2021), the period during which clinical testing was widely available and different variants dominated clinical cases. The strongest correlations were observed between wastewater N1 concentrations and the cumulative clinical cases reported in the 2 weeks prior to wastewater sampling, followed by the week prior, new cases, and the week after wastewater sampling. Sewer type and size did not necessarily explain the strength of the correlations, indicating that other non-sewer factors may be impacting the observations. In-system sampling results for the largest system sampled are presented for 1 month. Removing wet weather days from the data sets improved even the flow-normalized correlations for the systems, potentially indicating that interpreting results during wet weather events may be more complicated than simply accounting for dilution. PRACTITIONER POINTS: SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater correlated best with total clinical cases reported in 2 weeks before wastewater sampling at the utility level. Study performed when clinical testing was widespread during the year after the first COVID-19 wave in the region. Sewer type and size did not necessarily explain correlation strength between clinical cases and wastewater-based epidemiology results. Removing wet weather days improved correlations for 3/4 utilities studied, including both separate sanitary and combined sewers.

Modeling infection from SARS-CoV-2 wastewater concentrations: promise, limitations, and future directions

Estimating total infection levels, including unreported and asymptomatic infections, is important for understanding community disease transmission. Wastewater can provide a pooled community sample to estimate total infections that is independent of case reporting biases toward individuals with moderate to severe symptoms and by test-seeking behavior and access. We derive three mechanistic models for estimating community infection levels from wastewater measurements based on a description of the processes that generate SARS-CoV-2 RNA signals in wastewater and accounting for the fecal strength of wastewater through endogenous microbial markers, daily flow, and per-capita wastewater generation estimates. The models are illustrated through two case studies of wastewater data collected during 2020-2021 in Virginia Beach, VA, and Santa Clara County, CA. Median simulated infection levels generally were higher than reported cases, but at times, were lower, suggesting a discrepancy between the reported cases and wastewater data, or inaccurate modeling results. Daily simulated infection estimates showed large ranges, in part due to dependence on highly variable clinical viral fecal shedding data. Overall, the wastewater-based mechanistic models are useful for normalization of wastewater measurements and for understanding wastewater-based surveillance data for public health decision-making but are currently limited by lack of robust SARS-CoV-2 fecal shedding data.

Making waves: Wastewater surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 in an endemic future

Wastewater-based surveillance (WBS) has been widely used as a public health tool to monitor the emergence and spread of SARS-CoV-2 infections in populations during the COVID-19 pandemic. Coincident with the global vaccination efforts, the world is also enduring new waves of SARS-CoV-2 variants. Reinfections and vaccine breakthroughs suggest an endemic future where SARS-CoV-2 continues to persist in the general population. In this treatise, we aim to explore the future roles of wastewater surveillance. Practically, WBS serves as a relatively affordable and non-invasive tool for mass surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 infection while minimizing privacy concerns, attributes that make it extremely suited for its long-term usage. In an endemic future, the utility of WBS will include 1) monitoring the trend of viral loads of targets in wastewater for quantitative estimate of changes in disease incidence; 2) sampling upstream for pinpointing infections in neighborhoods and at the building level; 3) integrating wastewater and clinical surveillance for cost-efficient population surveillance; and 4) genome sequencing wastewater samples to track circulating and emerging variants in the population. We further discuss the challenges and future developments of WBS to reduce inconsistencies in wastewater data worldwide, improve its epidemiological inference, and advance viral tracking and discovery as a preparation for the next viral pandemic.