Measurably evolving populations

Ancestral process for infectious disease outbreaks with superspreading

When an infectious disease outbreak is of a relatively small size, describing the ancestry of a sample of infected individuals is difficult because most ancestral models assume large population sizes. Given a set of infected individuals, we show that it is possible to express exactly the probability that they have the same infector, either inclusively (so that other individuals may have the same infector too) or exclusively (so that they may not). To compute these probabilities requires knowledge of the offspring distribution, which determines how many infections each infected individual causes. We consider transmission both without and with superspreading, in the form of a Poisson and a Negative-Binomial offspring distribution, respectively. We show how our results can be incorporated into a new Lambda-coalescent model which allows multiple lineages to coalesce together. We call this new model the Omega-coalescent, we compare it with previously proposed alternatives, and advocate its use in future studies of infectious disease outbreaks.

How does date-rounding affect phylodynamic inference for public health?

Phylodynamic analyses infer epidemiological parameters from pathogen genome sequences for enhanced genomic surveillance in public health. Pathogen genome sequences and their associated sampling dates are the essential data in every analysis. However, sampling dates are usually associated with hospitalisation or testing and can sometimes be used to identify individual patients, posing a threat to patient confidentiality. To lower this risk, sampling dates are often given with reduced date-resolution to the month or year, which can potentially bias inference. Here, we introduce a practical guideline on when date-rounding biases the inference of epidemiologically important parameters across a diverse range of empirical and simulated datasets. We show that the direction of bias varies for different parameters, datasets, and tree priors, while compounding with lower date-resolution and higher substitution rates. We also find that bias decreases for datasets with longer sampling intervals, implying that our guideline is most applicable to emerging datasets. We conclude by discussing future solutions that prioritise patient confidentiality and propose a method for safer sharing of sampling dates that translates them them uniformly by a random number.

Bayesian Inference of Pathogen Phylogeography using the Structured Coalescent Model

Over the past decade, pathogen genome sequencing has become well established as a powerful approach to study infectious disease epidemiology. In particular, when multiple genomes are available from several geographical locations, comparing them is informative about the relative size of the local pathogen populations as well as past migration rates and events between locations. The structured coalescent model has a long history of being used as the underlying process for such phylogeographic analysis. However, the computational cost of using this model does not scale well to the large number of genomes frequently analysed in pathogen genomic epidemiology studies. Several approximations of the structured coalescent model have been proposed, but their effects are difficult to predict. Here we show how the exact structured coalescent model can be used to analyse a precomputed dated phylogeny, in order to perform Bayesian inference on the past migration history, the effective population sizes in each location, and the directed migration rates from any location to another. We describe an efficient reversible jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo scheme which is implemented in a new R package StructCoalescent. We use simulations to demonstrate the scalability and correctness of our method and to compare it with existing software. We also applied our new method to several state-of-the-art datasets on the population structure of real pathogens to showcase the relevance of our method to current data scales and research questions.

Factors Affecting Phage-Bacteria Coevolution Dynamics

Bacteriophages (phages) have coevolved with their bacterial hosts for billions of years. With the rise of antibiotic resistance, the significance of using phages in therapy is increasing. Investigating the dynamics of phage evolution can provide valuable insights for pre-adapting phages to more challenging clones of their hosts that may arise during treatment. Two primary models describe interactions in phage-bacteria systems: arms race dynamics and fluctuating selection dynamics. Numerous factors influence which dynamics dominate the interactions between a phage and its host. These dynamics, in turn, affect the coexistence of phages and bacteria, ultimately determining which organism will adapt more effectively to the other, and whether a stable state will be reached. In this review, we summarize key findings from research on phage-bacteria coevolution, focusing on the different concepts that can describe these interactions, the factors that may contribute to the prevalence of one model over others, and the effects of various dynamics on both phages and bacteria.

Seasonality and interannual stability in the population genetic structure of Batrachospermum gelatinosum (Rhodophyta)

Temporal population genetic studies have investigated evolutionary processes, but few have characterized reproductive system variation. Yet, temporal sampling may improve our understanding of reproductive system evolution through the assessment of the relative rates of selfing, outcrossing, and clonality. In this study, we focused on the monoicous, haploid-diploid freshwater red alga Batrachospermum gelatinosum. This species has a perennial, microscopic diploid phase (chantransia) that produces an ephemeral, macroscopic haploid phase (gametophyte). Recent work focusing on single-time point genotyping suggested high rates of intragametophytic selfing, although there was variation among sites. We expand on this work by genotyping 191 gametophytes sampled from four sites that had reproductive system variation based on single-snapshot genotyping. For this study, we sampled at multiple time points within and among years. Results from intra-annual data suggested shifts in gametophytic genotypes throughout the season. We hypothesize that this pattern is likely due to the seasonality of the life cycle and the timing of meiosis among the chantransia. Interannual patterns were characterized by consistent genotypic and genetic composition, indicating stability in the prevailing reproductive system through time. Yet, our study identified limits by which available theoretical predictions and analytical tools can resolve reproductive system variation using haploid data. There is a need to develop new analytical tools to understand the evolution of sex by expanding our ability to characterize the spatiotemporal variation in reproductive systems across diverse life cycles.

Century-old herbarium specimen provides insights into Pierce's disease of grapevines emergence in the Americas

Fossils and other preserved specimens are integral for informing timing and evolutionary history in every biological system. By isolating a plant pathogen genome from herbarium-preserved diseased grapevine material from 1906 (Herb_1906), we were able to answer questions about an enigmatic system. The emergence of Pierce's disease (PD) of grapevine has shaped viticultural production in North America; yet, there are uncertainties about the geographic origin of the pathogen (Xylella fastidiosa subsp. fastidiosa, Xff) and the timing and route of its introduction. We produced a high-quality, de novo genome assembly of this historical plant pathogen and confirmed degradation patterns unique to ancient DNA. Due to the inclusion of the Herb_1906 sample, we were able to generate a significant temporal signal in the genomic data. This allowed us to build a time-calibrated phylogeny, where we estimate the introduction of Xff into the US between 1734 and 1741 CE, an earlier time frame than previously inferred. In a large collection of >300 Xff genomes, the Herb_1906 sample was genetically most similar to a small population from Northern California but not basal to the entire Xff California clade. Based on phylogenetic placement and a phylogeographic reconstruction, our data support a single introduction of Xff into the Southeastern US from Central America, with multiple subsequent introductions into California.

Bayesian Inference Under the Multispecies Coalescent with Ancient DNA Sequences

Ancient DNA (aDNA) is increasingly being used to investigate questions such as the phylogenetic relationships and divergence times of extant and extinct species. If aDNA samples are sufficiently old, expected branch lengths (in units of nucleotide substitutions) are reduced relative to contemporary samples. This can be accounted for by incorporating sample ages into phylogenetic analyses. Existing methods that use tip (sample) dates infer gene trees rather than species trees, which can lead to incorrect or biased inferences of the species tree. Methods using a multispecies coalescent (MSC) model overcome these issues. We developed an MSC model with tip dates and implemented it in the program BPP. The method performed well for a range of biologically realistic scenarios, estimating calibrated divergence times and mutation rates precisely. Simulations suggest that estimation precision can be best improved by prioritizing sampling of many loci and more ancient samples. Incorrectly treating ancient samples as contemporary in analyzing simulated data, mimicking a common practice of empirical analyses, led to large systematic biases in model parameters, including divergence times. Two genomic datasets of mammoths and elephants were analyzed, demonstrating the method's empirical utility.

Modeling the velocity of evolving lineages and predicting dispersal patterns

Accurate estimation of the dispersal velocity or speed of evolving organisms is no mean feat. In fact, existing probabilistic models in phylogeography or spatial population genetics generally do not provide an adequate framework to define velocity in a relevant manner. For instance, the very concept of instantaneous speed simply does not exist under one of the most popular approaches that models the evolution of spatial coordinates as Brownian trajectories running along a phylogeny. Here, we introduce a family of models-the so-called Phylogenetic Integrated Velocity (PIV) models-that use Gaussian processes to explicitly model the velocity of evolving lineages instead of focusing on the fluctuation of spatial coordinates over time. We describe the properties of these models and show an increased accuracy of velocity estimates compared to previous approaches. Analyses of West Nile virus data in the United States indicate that PIV models provide sensible predictions of the dispersal of evolving pathogens at a one-year time horizon. These results demonstrate the feasibility and relevance of predictive phylogeography in monitoring epidemics in time and space.

Assessing the effect of model specification and prior sensitivity on Bayesian tests of temporal signal

Our understanding of the evolution of many microbes has been revolutionised by the molecular clock, a statistical tool to infer evolutionary rates and timescales from analyses of biomolecular sequences. In all molecular clock models, evolutionary rates and times are jointly unidentifiable and 'calibration' information must therefore be used. For many organisms, sequences sampled at different time points can be employed for such calibration. Before attempting to do so, it is recommended to verify that the data carry sufficient information for molecular dating, a practice referred to as evaluation of temporal signal. Recently, a fully Bayesian approach, BETS (Bayesian Evaluation of Temporal Signal), was proposed to overcome known limitations of other commonly used techniques such as root-to-tip regression or date randomisation tests. BETS requires the specification of a full Bayesian phylogenetic model, posing several considerations for untangling the impact of model choice on the detection of temporal signal. Here, we aimed to (i) explore the effect of molecular clock model and tree prior specification on the results of BETS and (ii) provide guidelines for improving our confidence in molecular clock estimates. Using microbial molecular sequence data sets and simulation experiments, we assess the impact of the tree prior and its hyperparameters on the accuracy of temporal signal detection. In particular, highly informative priors that are inconsistent with the data can result in the incorrect detection of temporal signal. In consequence, we recommend: (i) using prior predictive simulations to determine whether the prior generates a reasonable expectation of parameters of interest, such as the evolutionary rate and age of the root node, (ii) conducting prior sensitivity analyses to assess the robustness of the posterior to the choice of prior, and (iii) selecting a molecular clock model that reasonably describes the evolutionary process.

Examining the molecular clock hypothesis for the contemporary evolution of the rabies virus

The molecular clock hypothesis assumes that mutations accumulate on an organism's genome at a constant rate over time, but this assumption does not always hold true. While modelling approaches exist to accommodate deviations from a strict molecular clock, assumptions about rate variation may not fully represent the underlying evolutionary processes. There is considerable variability in rabies virus (RABV) incubation periods, ranging from days to over a year, during which viral replication may be reduced. This prompts the question of whether modelling RABV on a per infection generation basis might be more appropriate. We investigate how variable incubation periods affect root-to-tip divergence under per-unit time and per-generation models of mutation. Additionally, we assess how well these models represent root-to-tip divergence in time-stamped RABV sequences. We find that at low substitution rates (<1 substitution per genome per generation) divergence patterns between these models are difficult to distinguish, while above this threshold differences become apparent across a range of sampling rates. Using a Tanzanian RABV dataset, we calculate the mean substitution rate to be 0.17 substitutions per genome per generation. At RABV's substitution rate, the per-generation substitution model is unlikely to represent rabies evolution substantially differently than the molecular clock model when examining contemporary outbreaks; over enough generations for any divergence to accumulate, extreme incubation periods average out. However, measuring substitution rates per-generation holds potential in applications such as inferring transmission trees and predicting lineage emergence.

Modeling the velocity of evolving lineages and predicting dispersal patterns

Accurate estimation of the dispersal velocity or speed of evolving organisms is no mean feat. In fact, existing probabilistic models in phylogeography or spatial population genetics generally do not provide an adequate framework to define velocity in a relevant manner. For instance, the very concept of instantaneous speed simply does not exist under one of the most popular approaches that models the evolution of spatial coordinates as Brownian trajectories running along a phylogeny (Lemey et al., 2010). Here, we introduce a new family of models - the so-called "Phylogenetic Integrated Velocity" (PIV) models - that use Gaussian processes to explicitly model the velocity of evolving lineages instead of focusing on the fluctuation of spatial coordinates over time. We describe the properties of these models and show an increased accuracy of velocity estimates compared to previous approaches. Analyses of West Nile virus data in the U.S.A. indicate that PIV models provide sensible predictions of the dispersal of evolving pathogens at a one-year time horizon. These results demonstrate the feasibility and relevance of predictive phylogeography in monitoring epidemics in time and space.

Genomic epidemiology and evolutionary dynamics of the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 during the fifth wave of COVID-19 in Pakistan

Introduction

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has posed extraordinary challenges to global health systems and economies. The virus's rapid evolution has resulted in several variants of concern (VOCs), including the highly transmissible Omicron variant, characterized by extensive mutations. In this study, we investigated the genetic diversity, population differentiation, and evolutionary dynamics of the Omicron VOC during the fifth wave of COVID-19 in Pakistan.

Methods

A total of 954 Omicron genomes sequenced during the fifth wave of COVID-19 in Pakistan were analyzed. A Bayesian framework was employed for phylogenetic reconstructions, molecular dating, and population dynamics analysis.

Results

Using a population genomics approach, we analyzed Pakistani Omicron samples, revealing low within-population genetic diversity and significant structural variation in the spike (S) protein. Phylogenetic analysis showed that the Omicron variant in Pakistan originated from two distinct lineages, BA.1 and BA.2, which were introduced from South Africa, Thailand, Spain, and Belgium. Omicron-specific mutations, including those in the receptor-binding domain, were identified. The estimated molecular evolutionary rate was 2.562E-3 mutations per site per year (95% HPD interval: 8.8067E-4 to 4.1462E-3). Bayesian skyline plot analysis indicated a significant population expansion at the end of 2021, coinciding with the global Omicron outbreak. Comparative analysis with other VOCs showed Omicron as a highly divergent, monophyletic group, suggesting a unique evolutionary pathway.

Conclusions

This study provides a comprehensive overview of Omicron's genetic diversity, genomic epidemiology, and evolutionary dynamics in Pakistan, emphasizing the need for global collaboration in monitoring variants and enhancing pandemic preparedness.

Interrogating Genomes and Geography to Unravel Multiyear Vesicular Stomatitis Epizootics

We conducted an integrative analysis to elucidate the spatial epidemiological patterns of the Vesicular Stomatitis New Jersey virus (VSNJV) during the 2014-15 epizootic cycle in the United States (US). Using georeferenced VSNJV genomics data, confirmed vesicular stomatitis (VS) disease cases from surveillance, and a suite of environmental factors, our study assessed environmental and phylogenetic similarity to compare VS cases reported in 2014 and 2015. Despite uncertainties from incomplete virus sampling and cross-scale spatial processes, patterns suggested multiple independent re-invasion events concurrent with potential viral overwintering between sequential seasons. Our findings pointed to a geographically defined southern virus pool at the US-Mexico interface as the source of VSNJV invasions and overwintering sites. Phylodynamic analysis demonstrated an increase in virus diversity before a rise in case numbers and a pronounced reduction in virus diversity during the winter season, indicative of a genetic bottleneck and a significant narrowing of virus variation between the summer outbreak seasons. Environment-vector interactions underscored the central role of meta-population dynamics in driving disease spread. These insights emphasize the necessity for location- and time-specific management practices, including rapid response, movement restrictions, vector control, and other targeted interventions.

shinyTempSignal: an R shiny application for exploring temporal and other phylogenetic signals

The molecular clock model is fundamental for inferring species divergence times from molecular sequences. However, its direct application may introduce significant biases due to sequencing errors, recombination events, and inaccurately labeled sampling times. Improving accuracy necessitates rigorous quality control measures to identify and remove potentially erroneous sequences. Furthermore, while not all branches of a phylogenetic tree may exhibit a clear temporal signal, specific branches may still adhere to the assumptions, with varying evolutionary rates. Supporting a relaxed molecular clock model better aligns with the complexities of evolution. The root-to-tip regression method has been widely used to analyze the temporal signal in phylogenetic studies and can be generalized for detecting other phylogenetic signals. Despite its utility, there remains a lack of corresponding software implementations for broader applications. To address this gap, we present shinyTempSignal, an interactive web application implemented with the shiny framework, available as an R package and publicly accessible at https://github.com/YuLab-SMU/shinyTempSignal. This tool facilitates the analysis of temporal and other phylogenetic signals under both strict and relaxed models. By extending the root-to-tip regression method to diverse signals, shinyTempSignal helps in the detection of evolving features or traits, thereby laying the foundation for deeper insights and subsequent analyses.

Fast Bayesian Inference of Phylogenies from Multiple Continuous Characters

Time-scaled phylogenetic trees are an ultimate goal of evolutionary biology and a necessary ingredient in comparative studies. The accumulation of genomic data has resolved the tree of life to a great extent, yet timing evolutionary events remain challenging if not impossible without external information such as fossil ages and morphological characters. Methods for incorporating morphology in tree estimation have lagged behind their molecular counterparts, especially in the case of continuous characters. Despite recent advances, such tools are still direly needed as we approach the limits of what molecules can teach us. Here, we implement a suite of state-of-the-art methods for leveraging continuous morphology in phylogenetics, and by conducting extensive simulation studies we thoroughly validate and explore our methods' properties. While retaining model generality and scalability, we make it possible to estimate absolute and relative divergence times from multiple continuous characters while accounting for uncertainty. We compile and analyze one of the most data-type diverse data sets to date, comprised of contemporaneous and ancient molecular sequences, and discrete and continuous morphological characters from living and extinct Carnivora taxa. We conclude by synthesizing lessons about our method's behavior, and suggest future research venues.

Assessing the emergence time of SARS-CoV-2 zoonotic spillover

Understanding the evolution of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) and its relationship to other coronaviruses in the wild is crucial for preventing future virus outbreaks. While the origin of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic remains uncertain, mounting evidence suggests the direct involvement of the bat and pangolin coronaviruses in the evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 genome. To unravel the early days of a probable zoonotic spillover event, we analyzed genomic data from various coronavirus strains from both human and wild hosts. Bayesian phylogenetic analysis was performed using multiple datasets, using strict and relaxed clock evolutionary models to estimate the occurrence times of key speciation, gene transfer, and recombination events affecting the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 and its closest relatives. We found strong evidence supporting the presence of temporal structure in datasets containing SARS-CoV-2 variants, enabling us to estimate the time of SARS-CoV-2 zoonotic spillover between August and early October 2019. In contrast, datasets without SARS-CoV-2 variants provided mixed results in terms of temporal structure. However, they allowed us to establish that the presence of a statistically robust clade in the phylogenies of gene S and its receptor-binding (RBD) domain, including two bat (BANAL) and two Guangdong pangolin coronaviruses (CoVs), is due to the horizontal gene transfer of this gene from the bat CoV to the pangolin CoV that occurred in the middle of 2018. Importantly, this clade is closely located to SARS-CoV-2 in both phylogenies. This phylogenetic proximity had been explained by an RBD gene transfer from the Guangdong pangolin CoV to a very recent ancestor of SARS-CoV-2 in some earlier works in the field before the BANAL coronaviruses were discovered. Overall, our study provides valuable insights into the timeline and evolutionary dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.

B cell phylogenetics in the single cell era

The widespread availability of single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) has led to the development of new methods for understanding immune responses. Single-cell transcriptome data can now be paired with B cell receptor (BCR) sequences. However, RNA from BCRs cannot be analyzed like most other genes because BCRs are genetically diverse within individuals. In humans, BCRs are shaped through recombination followed by mutation and selection for antigen binding. As these processes co-occur with cell division, B cells can be studied using phylogenetic trees representing the mutations within a clone. B cell trees can link experimental timepoints, tissues, or cellular subtypes. Here, we review the current state and potential of how B cell phylogenetics can be combined with single-cell data to understand immune responses.

Accumulated metagenomic studies reveal recent migration, whole genome evolution, and undiscovered diversity of orthomyxoviruses

IMPORTANCE

The number of known virus species has increased dramatically through metagenomic studies, which search genetic material sampled from a host for non-host genes. Here, we focus on an important viral family that includes influenza viruses, the Orthomyxoviridae, with over 100 recently discovered viruses infecting hosts from humans to fish. We find that one virus called Wǔhàn mosquito virus 6, discovered in mosquitoes in China, has spread across the globe very recently. Surface proteins used to enter cells show signs of rapid evolution in Wǔhàn mosquito virus 6 and its relatives which suggests an ability to infect vertebrate animals. We compute the rate at which new orthomyxovirus species discovered add evolutionary history to the tree of life, predict that many viruses remain to be discovered, and discuss what appropriately designed future studies can teach us about how diseases cross between continents and species.

Herbarium specimen sequencing allows precise dating of Xanthomonas citri pv. citri diversification history

Herbarium collections are an important source of dated, identified and preserved DNA, whose use in comparative genomics and phylogeography can shed light on the emergence and evolutionary history of plant pathogens. Here, we reconstruct 13 historical genomes of the bacterial crop pathogen Xanthomonas citri pv. citri (Xci) from infected Citrus herbarium specimens. Following authentication based on ancient DNA damage patterns, we compare them with a large set of modern genomes to estimate their phylogenetic relationships, pathogenicity-associated gene content and several evolutionary parameters. Our results indicate that Xci originated in Southern Asia ~11,500 years ago (perhaps in relation to Neolithic climate change and the development of agriculture) and diversified during the beginning of the 13th century, after Citrus diversification and before spreading to the rest of the world (probably via human-driven expansion of citriculture through early East-West trade and colonization).

Estimating the fitness cost and benefit of antimicrobial resistance from pathogen genomic data

Increasing levels of antibiotic resistance in many bacterial pathogen populations are a major threat to public health. Resistance to an antibiotic provides a fitness benefit when the bacteria are exposed to this antibiotic, but resistance also often comes at a cost to the resistant pathogen relative to susceptible counterparts. We lack a good understanding of these benefits and costs of resistance for many bacterial pathogens and antibiotics, but estimating them could lead to better use of antibiotics in a way that reduces or prevents the spread of resistance. Here, we propose a new model for the joint epidemiology of susceptible and resistant variants, which includes explicit parameters for the cost and benefit of resistance. We show how Bayesian inference can be performed under this model using phylogenetic data from susceptible and resistant lineages and that by combining data from both we are able to disentangle and estimate the resistance cost and benefit parameters separately. We applied our inferential methodology to several simulated datasets to demonstrate good scalability and accuracy. We analysed a dataset of Neisseria gonorrhoeae genomes collected between 2000 and 2013 in the USA. We found that two unrelated lineages resistant to fluoroquinolones shared similar epidemic dynamics and resistance parameters. Fluoroquinolones were abandoned for the treatment of gonorrhoea due to increasing levels of resistance, but our results suggest that they could be used to treat a minority of around 10% of cases without causing resistance to grow again.

Signatures of natural selection in tree topology shape of serially sampled viral phylogenies

Tree shape metrics can be computed fast for trees of any size, which makes them promising alternatives to intensive statistical methods and parameter-rich evolutionary models in the era of massive data availability. Previous studies have demonstrated their effectiveness in unveiling important parameters in viral evolutionary dynamics, although the impact of natural selection on the shape of tree topologies has not been thoroughly investigated. We carried out a forward-time and individual-based simulation to investigate whether tree shape metrics of several kinds could predict the selection regime employed to generate the data. To examine the impact of the genetic diversity of the founder viral population, simulations were run under two opposing starting configurations of the genetic diversity of the infecting viral population. We found that four evolutionary regimes, namely, negative, positive, and frequency-dependent selection, as well as neutral evolution, were successfully distinguished by tree topology shape metrics. Two metrics from the Laplacian spectral density profile (principal eigenvalue and peakedness) and the number of cherries were the most informative for indicating selection type. The genetic diversity of the founder population had an impact on differentiating evolutionary scenarios. Tree imbalance, which has been frequently associated with the action of natural selection on intrahost viral diversity, was also characteristic of neutrally evolving serially sampled data. Metrics calculated from empirical analysis of HIV datasets indicated that most tree topologies exhibited shapes closer to the frequency-dependent selection or neutral evolution regimes.

Genetic analysis of infectious bronchitis virus (IBV) in vaccinated poultry populations over a period of 10 years

Infectious bronchitis virus (IBV) is an avian pathogen from the Coronavirus family causing major health issues in poultry flocks worldwide. Because of its negative impact on health, performance, and bird welfare, commercial poultry are routinely vaccinated by administering live attenuated virus. However, field strains are capable of rapid adaptation and may evade vaccine-induced immunity. We set out to describe dynamics within and between lineages and assess potential escape from vaccine-induced immunity. We investigated a large nucleotide sequence database of over 1700 partial sequences of the S1 spike protein gene collected from clinical samples of Dutch chickens submitted to the laboratory of Royal GD between 2011 and 2020. Relative frequencies of the two major lineages GI-13 (793B) and GI-19 (QX) did not change in the investigated period, but we found a succession of distinct GI-19 sublineages. Analysis of dN/dS ratio over all sequences demonstrated episodic diversifying selection acting on multiple sites, some of which overlap predicted N-glycosylation motifs. We assessed several measures that would indicate divergence from vaccine strains, both in the overall database and in the two major lineages. However, the frequency of vaccine-homologous lineages did not decrease, no increase in genetic variation with time was detected, and the sequences did not grow more divergent from vaccine sequences in the examined time window. Concluding, our results show sublineage turnover within the GI-19 lineage and we demonstrate episodic diversifying selection acting on the partial sequence, but we cannot confirm nor rule out escape from vaccine-induced immunity.RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTSSuccession of GI-19 IBV variants in broiler populations.IBV lineages overrepresented in either broiler, or layer production chickens.Ongoing episodic selection at the IBV S1 spike protein gene sequence.Several positively selected codons coincident with N-glycosylation motifs.

Detecting punctuated evolution in SARS-CoV-2 over the first year of the pandemic

The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) evolved slowly over the first year of the Coronavirus Disease 19 (COVID-19) pandemic with differential mutation rates across lineages. Here, we explore how this variation arose. Whether evolutionary change accumulated gradually within lineages or during viral lineage branching is unclear. Using phylogenetic regression models, we show that ~13% of SARS-CoV-2 genomic divergence up to May 2020 is attributable to lineage branching events (punctuated evolution). The net number of branching events along lineages predicts ~5% of the deviation from the strict molecular clock. We did not detect punctuated evolution in SARS-CoV-1, possibly due to the small sample size, and in sarbecovirus broadly, likely due to a different evolutionary process altogether. Punctuation in SARS-CoV-2 is probably neutral because most mutations were not positively selected and because the strength of the punctuational effect remained constant over time, at least until May 2020, and across continents. However, the small punctuational contribution to SARS-CoV-2 diversity is consistent with the founder effect arising from narrow transmission bottlenecks. Therefore, punctuation in SARS-CoV-2 may represent the macroevolutionary consequence (rate variation) of a microevolutionary process (transmission bottleneck).

Measurably recombining malaria parasites

Genomic epidemiology has guided research and policy for various viral pathogens and there has been a parallel effort towards using genomic epidemiology to combat diseases that are caused by eukaryotic pathogens, such as the malaria parasite. However, the central concept of viral genomic epidemiology, namely that of measurably mutating pathogens, does not apply easily to sexually recombining parasites. Here we introduce the related but different concept of measurably recombining malaria parasites to promote convergence around a unifying theoretical framework for malaria genomic epidemiology. Akin to viral phylodynamics, we anticipate that an inferential framework developed around recombination will help guide practical research and thus realize the full public health potential of genomic epidemiology for malaria parasites and other sexually recombining pathogens.

Distinguishing imported cases from locally acquired cases within a geographically limited genomic sample of an infectious disease

MOTIVATION

The ability to distinguish imported cases from locally acquired cases has important consequences for the selection of public health control strategies. Genomic data can be useful for this, for example, using a phylogeographic analysis in which genomic data from multiple locations are compared to determine likely migration events between locations. However, these methods typically require good samples of genomes from all locations, which is rarely available.

RESULTS

Here, we propose an alternative approach that only uses genomic data from a location of interest. By comparing each new case with previous cases from the same location, we are able to detect imported cases, as they have a different genealogical distribution than that of locally acquired cases. We show that, when variations in the size of the local population are accounted for, our method has good sensitivity and excellent specificity for the detection of imports. We applied our method to data simulated under the structured coalescent model and demonstrate relatively good performance even when the local population has the same size as the external population. Finally, we applied our method to several recent genomic datasets from both bacterial and viral pathogens, and show that it can, in a matter of seconds or minutes, deliver important insights on the number of imports to a geographically limited sample of a pathogen population.

AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION

The R package DetectImports is freely available from https://github.com/xavierdidelot/DetectImports.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Genome Structure, Life Cycle, and Taxonomy of Coronaviruses and the Evolution of SARS-CoV-2

Coronaviruses have a broad host range and exhibit high zoonotic potential. In this chapter, we describe their genomic organization in terms of encoded proteins and provide an introduction to the peculiar discontinuous transcription mechanism. Further, we present evolutionary conserved genomic RNA secondary structure features, which are involved in the complex replication mechanism. With a focus on computational methods, we review the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 starting with the 2019 strains. In that context, we also discuss the debated hypothesis of whether SARS-CoV-2 was created in a laboratory. We focus on the molecular evolution and the epidemiological dynamics of this recently emerged pathogen and we explain how variants of concern are detected and characterised. COVID-19, the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, can spread through different transmission routes and also depends on a number of risk factors. We describe how current computational models of viral epidemiology, or more specifically, phylodynamics, have facilitated and will continue to enable a better understanding of the epidemic dynamics of SARS-CoV-2.

Robust analysis of prokaryotic pangenome gene gain and loss rates with Panstripe

Horizontal gene transfer (HGT) plays a critical role in the evolution and diversification of many microbial species. The resulting dynamics of gene gain and loss can have important implications for the development of antibiotic resistance and the design of vaccine and drug interventions. Methods for the analysis of gene presence/absence patterns typically do not account for errors introduced in the automated annotation and clustering of gene sequences. In particular, methods adapted from ecological studies, including the pangenome gene accumulation curve, can be misleading as they may reflect the underlying diversity in the temporal sampling of genomes rather than a difference in the dynamics of HGT. Here, we introduce Panstripe, a method based on generalized linear regression that is robust to population structure, sampling bias, and errors in the predicted presence/absence of genes. We show using simulations that Panstripe can effectively identify differences in the rate and number of genes involved in HGT events, and illustrate its capability by analyzing several diverse bacterial genome data sets representing major human pathogens.

Global disparities in SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance

Genomic sequencing is essential to track the evolution and spread of SARS-CoV-2, optimize molecular tests, treatments, vaccines, and guide public health responses. To investigate the global SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance, we used sequences shared via GISAID to estimate the impact of sequencing intensity and turnaround times on variant detection in 189 countries. In the first two years of the pandemic, 78% of high-income countries sequenced >0.5% of their COVID-19 cases, while 42% of low- and middle-income countries reached that mark. Around 25% of the genomes from high income countries were submitted within 21 days, a pattern observed in 5% of the genomes from low- and middle-income countries. We found that sequencing around 0.5% of the cases, with a turnaround time <21 days, could provide a benchmark for SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance. Socioeconomic inequalities undermine the global pandemic preparedness, and efforts must be made to support low- and middle-income countries improve their local sequencing capacity.

Connecting the dots: understanding how human mobility shapes TB epidemics

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a leading infectious cause of death worldwide. Reducing TB infections and TB-related deaths rests ultimately on stopping forward transmission from infectious to susceptible individuals. Critical to this effort is understanding how human host mobility shapes the transmission and dispersal of new or existing strains of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb). Important questions remain unanswered. What kinds of mobility, over what temporal and spatial scales, facilitate TB transmission? How do human mobility patterns influence the dispersal of novel Mtb strains, including emergent drug-resistant strains? This review summarizes the current state of knowledge on mobility and TB epidemic dynamics, using examples from three topic areas, including inference of genetic and spatial clustering of infections, delineating source-sink dynamics, and mapping the dispersal of novel TB strains, to examine scientific questions and methodological issues within this topic. We also review new data sources for measuring human mobility, including mobile phone-associated movement data, and discuss important limitations on their use in TB epidemiology.

Using multiple sampling strategies to estimate SARS-CoV-2 epidemiological parameters from genomic sequencing data

The choice of viral sequences used in genetic and epidemiological analysis is important as it can induce biases that detract from the value of these rich datasets. This raises questions about how a set of sequences should be chosen for analysis. We provide insights on these largely understudied problems using SARS-CoV-2 genomic sequences from Hong Kong, China, and the Amazonas State, Brazil. We consider multiple sampling schemes which were used to estimate Rt and rt as well as related R0 and date of origin parameters. We find that both Rt and rt are sensitive to changes in sampling whilst R0 and the date of origin are relatively robust. Moreover, we find that analysis using unsampled datasets result in the most biased Rt and rt estimates for both our Hong Kong and Amazonas case studies. We highlight that sampling strategy choices may be an influential yet neglected component of sequencing analysis pipelines.

Phylogeographic analysis reveals an ancient East African origin of human herpes simplex virus 2 dispersal out-of-Africa

Human herpes simplex virus 2 (HSV-2) is a ubiquitous, slowly evolving DNA virus. HSV-2 has two primary lineages, one found in West and Central Africa and the other found worldwide. Competing hypotheses have been proposed to explain how HSV-2 migrated out-of-Africa (i)HSV-2 followed human migration out-of-Africa 50-100 thousand years ago, or (ii)HSV-2 migrated via the trans-Atlantic slave trade 150-500 years ago. Limited geographic sampling and lack of molecular clock signal has precluded robust comparison. Here, we analyze newly sequenced HSV-2 genomes from Africa to resolve geography and timing of divergence events within HSV-2. Phylogeographic analysis consistently places the ancestor of worldwide dispersal in East Africa, though molecular clock is too slow to be detected using available data. Rates 4.2 × 10-8-5.6 × 10-8 substitutions/site/year, consistent with previous age estimates, suggest a worldwide dispersal 22-29 thousand years ago. Thus, HSV-2 likely migrated with humans from East Africa and dispersed after the Last Glacial Maximum.

Accounting for errors in data improves divergence time estimates in single-cell cancer evolution

Single-cell sequencing provides a new way to explore the evolutionary history of cells. Compared to traditional bulk sequencing, where a population of heterogeneous cells is pooled to form a single observation, single-cell sequencing isolates and amplifies genetic material from individual cells, thereby preserving the information about the origin of the sequences. However, single-cell data is more error-prone than bulk sequencing data due to the limited genomic material available per cell. Here, we present error and mutation models for evolutionary inference of single-cell data within a mature and extensible Bayesian framework, BEAST2. Our framework enables integration with biologically informative models such as relaxed molecular clocks and population dynamic models. Our simulations show that modeling errors increase the accuracy of relative divergence times and substitution parameters. We reconstruct the phylogenetic history of a colorectal cancer patient and a healthy patient from single-cell DNA sequencing data. We find that the estimated times of terminal splitting events are shifted forward in time compared to models which ignore errors. We observed that not accounting for errors can overestimate the phylogenetic diversity in single-cell DNA sequencing data. We estimate that 30-50% of the apparent diversity can be attributed to error. Our work enables a full Bayesian approach capable of accounting for errors in the data within the integrative Bayesian software framework BEAST2.

Detection of Ancient Viruses and Long-Term Viral Evolution

The COVID-19 outbreak has reminded us of the importance of viral evolutionary studies as regards comprehending complex viral evolution and preventing future pandemics. A unique approach to understanding viral evolution is the use of ancient viral genomes. Ancient viruses are detectable in various archaeological remains, including ancient people's skeletons and mummified tissues. Those specimens have preserved ancient viral DNA and RNA, which have been vigorously analyzed in the last few decades thanks to the development of sequencing technologies. Reconstructed ancient pathogenic viral genomes have been utilized to estimate the past pandemics of pathogenic viruses within the ancient human population and long-term evolutionary events. Recent studies revealed the existence of non-pathogenic viral genomes in ancient people's bodies. These ancient non-pathogenic viruses might be informative for inferring their relationships with ancient people's diets and lifestyles. Here, we reviewed the past and ongoing studies on ancient pathogenic and non-pathogenic viruses and the usage of ancient viral genomes to understand their long-term viral evolution.

The bounded coalescent model: Conditioning a genealogy on a minimum root date

The coalescent model represents how individuals sampled from a population may have originated from a last common ancestor. The bounded coalescent model is obtained by conditioning the coalescent model such that the last common ancestor must have existed after a certain date. This conditioned model arises in a variety of applications, such as speciation, horizontal gene transfer or transmission analysis, and yet the bounded coalescent model has not been previously analysed in detail. Here we describe a new algorithm to simulate from this model directly, without resorting to rejection sampling. We show that this direct simulation algorithm is more computationally efficient than the rejection sampling approach. We also show how to calculate the probability of the last common ancestor occurring after a given date, which is required to compute the probability density of realisations under the bounded coalescent model. Our results are applicable in both the isochronous (when all samples have the same date) and heterochronous (where samples can have different dates) settings. We explore the effect of setting a bound on the date of the last common ancestor, and show that it affects a number of properties of the resulting phylogenies. All our methods are implemented in a new R package called BoundedCoalescent which is freely available online.

Epidemiological inference from pathogen genomes: A review of phylodynamic models and applications

Phylodynamics requires an interdisciplinary understanding of phylogenetics, epidemiology, and statistical inference. It has also experienced more intense application than ever before amid the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. In light of this, we present a review of phylodynamic models beginning with foundational models and assumptions. Our target audience is public health researchers, epidemiologists, and biologists seeking a working knowledge of the links between epidemiology, evolutionary models, and resulting epidemiological inference. We discuss the assumptions linking evolutionary models of pathogen population size to epidemiological models of the infected population size. We then describe statistical inference for phylodynamic models and list how output parameters can be rearranged for epidemiological interpretation. We go on to cover more sophisticated models and finish by highlighting future directions.

PhyCovA - A Tool for Exploring Covariates of Pathogen Spread

Genetic analyses of fast-evolving pathogens are frequently undertaken to test the impact of covariates on their dispersal. In particular, a popular approach consists of parameterizing a discrete phylogeographic model as a generalized linear model to identify and analyse the predictors of the dispersal rates of viral lineages among discrete locations. However, such a full probabilistic inference is often computationally demanding and time-consuming. In the face of the increasing amount of viral genomes sequenced in epidemic outbreaks, there is a need for a fast exploration of covariates that might be relevant to consider in formal analyses. We here present PhyCovA (short for ‘Phylogeographic Covariate Analysis’), a web-based application allowing users to rapidly explore the association between candidate covariates and the number of phylogenetically informed transition events among locations. Specifically, PhyCovA takes as input a phylogenetic tree with discrete state annotations at the internal nodes, or reconstructs those states if not available, to subsequently conduct univariate and multivariate linear regression analyses, as well as an exploratory variable selection analysis. In addition, the application can also be used to generate and explore various visualizations related to the regression analyses or to the phylogenetic tree annotated by the ancestral state reconstruction. PhyCovA is freely accessible at https://evolcompvir-kuleuven.shinyapps.io/PhyCovA/ and also distributed in a dockerized form obtainable from https://hub.docker.com/repository/docker/timblokker/phycova. The source code and tutorial are available from the GitHub repository https://github.com/TimBlokker/PhyCovA.

Single-cell multi-omics reveals dyssynchrony of the innate and adaptive immune system in progressive COVID-19

Dysregulated immune responses against the SARS-CoV-2 virus are instrumental in severe COVID-19. However, the immune signatures associated with immunopathology are poorly understood. Here we use multi-omics single-cell analysis to probe the dynamic immune responses in hospitalized patients with stable or progressive course of COVID-19, explore V(D)J repertoires, and assess the cellular effects of tocilizumab. Coordinated profiling of gene expression and cell lineage protein markers shows that S100Ahi/HLA-DRlo classical monocytes and activated LAG-3hi T cells are hallmarks of progressive disease and highlights the abnormal MHC-II/LAG-3 interaction on myeloid and T cells, respectively. We also find skewed T cell receptor repertories in expanded effector CD8+ clones, unmutated IGHG+ B cell clones, and mutated B cell clones with stable somatic hypermutation frequency over time. In conclusion, our in-depth immune profiling reveals dyssynchrony of the innate and adaptive immune interaction in progressive COVID-19.

Dating Microbial Evolution with MCMCtree

This protocol explains how to use the program MCMCtree to estimate divergence times in microbial phylogenies. The main advantage of MCMCtree is the implementation of an approximation to the molecular data likelihood that dramatically speeds up computation during Bayesian MCMC sampling of divergence times and evolutionary rates. The approximation allows the analysis of large phylogenies with hundreds of taxa and molecular alignments with thousands or millions of sites. Two examples are used to illustrate Bayesian clock dating with MCMCtree. The first is a phylogeny of (mostly) microbial eukaryotes and prokaryotes encompassing the major groups of life on Earth, and for which fossil information, to calibrate the nodes of the phylogeny, is available. The second is a phylogeny of influenza viruses with known sampling times. An overview of Bayesian MCMC sampling is given as well as practical advice on issues such as construction of the time and rate prior and assessment of convergence of MCMC chains. Strategies for estimating times in microbial phylogenies for which neither fossil information nor sampling times are known are discussed.

regentrans: a framework and R package for using genomics to study regional pathogen transmission

Increasing evidence of regional pathogen transmission networks highlights the importance of investigating the dissemination of multidrug-resistant organisms (MDROs) across a region to identify where transmission is occurring and how pathogens move across regions. We developed a framework for investigating MDRO regional transmission dynamics using whole-genome sequencing data and created regentrans, an easy-to-use, open source R package that implements these methods (https://github.com/Snitkin-Lab-Umich/regentrans). Using a dataset of over 400 carbapenem-resistant isolates of Klebsiella pneumoniae collected from patients in 21 long-term acute care hospitals over a one-year period, we demonstrate how to use our framework to gain insights into differences in inter- and intra-facility transmission across different facilities and over time. This framework and corresponding R package will allow investigators to better understand the origins and transmission patterns of MDROs, which is the first step in understanding how to stop transmission at the regional level.

Genomic signatures of pre-resistance in Mycobacterium tuberculosis

Recent advances in bacterial whole-genome sequencing have resulted in a comprehensive catalog of antibiotic resistance genomic signatures in Mycobacterium tuberculosis. With a view to pre-empt the emergence of resistance, we hypothesized that pre-existing polymorphisms in susceptible genotypes (pre-resistance mutations) could increase the risk of becoming resistant in the future. We sequenced whole genomes from 3135 isolates sampled over a 17-year period. After reconstructing ancestral genomes on time-calibrated phylogenetic trees, we developed and applied a genome-wide survival analysis to determine the hazard of resistance acquisition. We demonstrate that M. tuberculosis lineage 2 has a higher risk of acquiring resistance than lineage 4, and estimate a higher hazard of rifampicin resistance evolution following isoniazid mono-resistance. Furthermore, we describe loci and genomic polymorphisms associated with a higher risk of resistance acquisition. Identifying markers of future antibiotic resistance could enable targeted therapy to prevent resistance emergence in M. tuberculosis and other pathogens.

Bayesian inference of clonal expansions in a dated phylogeny

Microbial population genetics models often assume that all lineages are constrained by the same population size dynamics over time. However, many neutral and selective events can invalidate this assumption and can contribute to the clonal expansion of a specific lineage relative to the rest of the population. Such differential phylodynamic properties between lineages result in asymmetries and imbalances in phylogenetic trees that are sometimes described informally but which are difficult to analyze formally. To this end, we developed a model of how clonal expansions occur and affect the branching patterns of a phylogeny. We show how the parameters of this model can be inferred from a given dated phylogeny using Bayesian statistics, which allows us to assess the probability that one or more clonal expansion events occurred. For each putative clonal expansion event, we estimate its date of emergence and subsequent phylodynamic trajectory, including its long-term evolutionary potential which is important to determine how much effort should be placed on specific control measures. We demonstrate the applicability of our methodology on simulated and real data sets. Inference under our clonal expansion model can reveal important features in the evolution and epidemiology of infectious disease pathogens. [Clonal expansion; genomic epidemiology; microbial population genomics; phylodynamics.]

Human B cell lineages associated with germinal centers following influenza vaccination are measurably evolving

The poor efficacy of seasonal influenza virus vaccines is often attributed to pre-existing immunity interfering with the persistence and maturation of vaccine-induced B cell responses. We previously showed that a subset of vaccine-induced B cell lineages are recruited into germinal centers (GCs) following vaccination, suggesting that affinity maturation of these lineages against vaccine antigens can occur. However, it remains to be determined whether seasonal influenza vaccination stimulates additional evolution of vaccine-specific lineages, and previous work has found no significant increase in somatic hypermutation among influenza-binding lineages sampled from the blood following seasonal vaccination in humans. Here, we investigate this issue using a phylogenetic test of measurable immunoglobulin sequence evolution. We first validate this test through simulations and survey measurable evolution across multiple conditions. We find significant heterogeneity in measurable B cell evolution across conditions, with enrichment in primary response conditions such as HIV infection and early childhood development. We then show that measurable evolution following influenza vaccination is highly compartmentalized: while lineages in the blood are rarely measurably evolving following influenza vaccination, lineages containing GC B cells are frequently measurably evolving. Many of these lineages appear to derive from memory B cells. We conclude from these findings that seasonal influenza virus vaccination can stimulate additional evolution of responding B cell lineages, and imply that the poor efficacy of seasonal influenza vaccination is not due to a complete inhibition of vaccine-specific B cell evolution.

Quantifying bacterial evolution in the wild: A birthday problem for Campylobacter lineages

Measuring molecular evolution in bacteria typically requires estimation of the rate at which nucleotide changes accumulate in strains sampled at different times that share a common ancestor. This approach has been useful for dating ecological and evolutionary events that coincide with the emergence of important lineages, such as outbreak strains and obligate human pathogens. However, in multi-host (niche) transmission scenarios, where the pathogen is essentially an opportunistic environmental organism, sampling is often sporadic and rarely reflects the overall population, particularly when concentrated on clinical isolates. This means that approaches that assume recent common ancestry are not applicable. Here we present a new approach to estimate the molecular clock rate in Campylobacter that draws on the popular probability conundrum known as the 'birthday problem'. Using large genomic datasets and comparative genomic approaches, we use isolate pairs that share recent common ancestry to estimate the rate of nucleotide change for the population. Identifying synonymous and non-synonymous nucleotide changes, both within and outside of recombined regions of the genome, we quantify clock-like diversification to estimate synonymous rates of nucleotide change for the common pathogenic bacteria Campylobacter coli (2.4 x 10-6 s/s/y) and Campylobacter jejuni (3.4 x 10-6 s/s/y). Finally, using estimated total rates of nucleotide change, we infer the number of effective lineages within the sample time frame-analogous to a shared birthday-and assess the rate of turnover of lineages in our sample set over short evolutionary timescales. This provides a generalizable approach to calibrating rates in populations of environmental bacteria and shows that multiple lineages are maintained, implying that large-scale clonal sweeps may take hundreds of years or more in these species.

Fundamental Identifiability Limits in Molecular Epidemiology

Viral phylogenies provide crucial information on the spread of infectious diseases, and many studies fit mathematical models to phylogenetic data to estimate epidemiological parameters such as the effective reproduction ratio (Re) over time. Such phylodynamic inferences often complement or even substitute for conventional surveillance data, particularly when sampling is poor or delayed. It remains generally unknown, however, how robust phylodynamic epidemiological inferences are, especially when there is uncertainty regarding pathogen prevalence and sampling intensity. Here, we use recently developed mathematical techniques to fully characterize the information that can possibly be extracted from serially collected viral phylogenetic data, in the context of the commonly used birth-death-sampling model. We show that for any candidate epidemiological scenario, there exists a myriad of alternative, markedly different, and yet plausible "congruent" scenarios that cannot be distinguished using phylogenetic data alone, no matter how large the data set. In the absence of strong constraints or rate priors across the entire study period, neither maximum-likelihood fitting nor Bayesian inference can reliably reconstruct the true epidemiological dynamics from phylogenetic data alone; rather, estimators can only converge to the "congruence class" of the true dynamics. We propose concrete and feasible strategies for making more robust epidemiological inferences from viral phylogenetic data.

Phylodynamic analysis in the understanding of the current COVID-19 pandemic and its utility in vaccine and antiviral design and assessment

Over the last decades, the use of phylogenetic methods in the study of emerging infectious diseases has gained considerable traction in public health. Particularly, the integration of phylogenetic analyses with the understanding of the pathogen dynamics at the population level has provided powerful tools for epidemiological surveillance systems. In the same way, the development of statistical methods and theory, as well as improvement of computational efficiency for evolutionary analysis, has expanded the use of these tools for vaccine and antiviral development. Today with the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), this seems to be critical. In this article, we discuss how the application of phylodynamic analysis can improve the understanding of current pandemic dynamics as well as the design, selection, and evaluation of vaccine candidates and antivirals.

Genetic lineage characterization and spatiotemporal dynamics of classical insect-specific flaviviruses: outcomes and limitations

The genus Flavivirus incorporates bona fide arboviruses, as well as others viruses with restricted replication in insect cells. Among the latter, a large monophyletic cluster of viruses, known as cISF (classical insect-specific flaviviruses), has been sampled in many species of mosquitoes collected over a large geographic range. In this study, we investigated nucleotide and protein sequences with a suite of molecular characterization approaches including genetic distance, Shannon entropy, selective pressure analysis, polymorphism identification, principal coordinate analysis, likelihood mapping, phylodynamic reconstruction, and spatiotemporal dispersal, to further characterize this diverse group of insect-viruses. The different lineages and sub-lineages of viral sequences presented low sequence diversity and entropy (though some displayed lineage-specific polymorphisms), did not show evidence of frequent recombination and evolved under strong purifying selection. Moreover, the reconstruction of the evolutionary history and spatiotemporal dispersal was highly impacted by overall low signals of sequence divergence throughout time but suggested that cISF distribution in space and time is dynamic and may be dependent on human activities, including commercial trading and traveling.

First historical genome of a crop bacterial pathogen from herbarium specimen: Insights into citrus canker emergence

Over the past decade, ancient genomics has been used in the study of various pathogens. In this context, herbarium specimens provide a precious source of dated and preserved DNA material, enabling a better understanding of plant disease emergences and pathogen evolutionary history. We report here the first historical genome of a crop bacterial pathogen, Xanthomonas citri pv. citri (Xci), obtained from an infected herbarium specimen dating back to 1937. Comparing the 1937 genome within a large set of modern genomes, we reconstructed their phylogenetic relationships and estimated evolutionary parameters using Bayesian tip-calibration inferences. The arrival of Xci in the South West Indian Ocean islands was dated to the 19th century, probably linked to human migrations following slavery abolishment. We also assessed the metagenomic community of the herbarium specimen, showed its authenticity using DNA damage patterns, and investigated its genomic features including functional SNPs and gene content, with a focus on virulence factors.

Unifying Phylogenetic Birth-Death Models in Epidemiology and Macroevolution

Birth–death stochastic processes are the foundations of many phylogenetic models and are widely used to make inferences about epidemiological and macroevolutionary dynamics. There are a large number of birth–death model variants that have been developed; these impose different assumptions about the temporal dynamics of the parameters and about the sampling process. As each of these variants was individually derived, it has been difficult to understand the relationships between them as well as their precise biological and mathematical assumptions. Without a common mathematical foundation, deriving new models is nontrivial. Here, we unify these models into a single framework, prove that many previously developed epidemiological and macroevolutionary models are all special cases of a more general model, and illustrate the connections between these variants. This unification includes both models where the process is the same for all lineages and those in which it varies across types. We also outline a straightforward procedure for deriving likelihood functions for arbitrarily complex birth–death(-sampling) models that will hopefully allow researchers to explore a wider array of scenarios than was previously possible. By rederiving existing single-type birth–death sampling models, we clarify and synthesize the range of explicit and implicit assumptions made by these models. [Birth–death processes; epidemiology; macroevolution; phylogenetics; statistical inference.]