Cost-effectiveness analysis of pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV-1 prevention in the Netherlands: a mathematical modelling study

Cost-effectiveness of cabotegravir versus tenofovir alafenamide plus emtricitabine versus tenofovir disoproxil fumarate plus emtricitabine for pre-exposure prophylaxis to prevent HIV-1 transmission in gay, bisexual and other men that have sex with men

INTRODUCTION

This study aims to compare the cost-effectiveness of currently approved daily PrEP in Spain, with tenofovir disoproxil fumarate plus emtricitabine (TDF/FTC), in gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men (GBMSM) versus newer alternatives like daily tenofovir alafenamide plus emtricitabine (TAF/FTC) or injectable cabotegravir every 2 months (CAB).

METHODS

We fitted a dynamic compartmentalized Markov model that represents the dynamics of HIV-1 transmission in GBMSM in Spain. The model was calibrated to replicate the epidemiological data of the HIV epidemic in GBMSM in Spain from 2013 to 2018. We used the perspective of the national health system and applied a 40-year time horizon. Quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were the health outcome variable, and the cost was accounted for in 2018 Euros (€). Our outcome variable was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for PrEP. We used the 2018 gross domestic product per capita of Spain (€25,854) as the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold.

RESULTS

The 2019 scenario with no PrEP in place would yield 17,424,891 QALYs and a cost of 2018 €17,345,310,254. The present scenario of daily TDF/FTC yields 18,615,325 QALYs, an increase of 1,190,434 QALYs at a cost of 2018 €15,354,878,534 (decrease of -2018 €1,990,431,719), generating an ICER of -2018 €1672 per QALY gained. The introduction of daily TAF/FTC in the present scenario would yield an increase in 449,392 QALYs at an additional cost of 2018 €13,634,260,217. The ICER would thus be 2018 €30,339 per QALY gained. Introducing CAB in the present scenario would yield an increase of 573,007 QALYs at an additional cost of 2018 €16,754,471,790 (average cost-effectiveness ratio=29,239). Compared to TAF, the increase in QALYs would be 123,614 at an additional cost of 2018 €5,707,367,590, yielding an ICER of 2018 €46,170/QALY gained. A one-way sensitivity analysis and a probabilistic sensitivity analysis was carried out.

CONCLUSION

The present Spanish policy of PrEP is a cost-saving strategy. TAF/FTC and CAB are not cost-effective at current market prices.

Interventions for stigma reduction in HIV treatment and prevention designed to enhance antiretroviral uptake and adherence: A systematic review

HIV remains a significant public health burden worldwide, especially in developing countries, despite the availability of effective prevention and treatment modalities, namely PrEP and ART, respectively. HIV-related stigma is a significant barrier to the optimal uptake or adherence to ART or PrEP in vulnerable populations. Therefore, there is a need for effective interventions that can address HIV-related stigma and improve adherence to ART or PrEP in vulnerable populations. This systematic review aimed to identify interventions that can effectively reduce HIV-related stigma and improve adherence to ART or PrEP in vulnerable individuals. A systematic review methodology following the PRISMA guidelines was used. The sources of information included MEDLINE (via PubMed search engine), Embase, Scopus, Web of Science, CINAHL, and PsycINFO. Studies were eligible if they were randomized controlled trials (RCTs) or quasi-experimental studies investigating the effectiveness of any intervention addressing HIV-related stigma among persons living with HIV and improving ART/PrEP adherence. We adopted a narrative synthesis approach to present our findings. For quality appraisal of included studies, we used Cochrane Risk of Bias (RoB 2) tool.Eight RCTs, but no quasi-experimental studies, met the eligibility criteria. Among the seven RCTs on ART adherence, four investigated the effectiveness of cognitive behavioral components (two studies showing positive impact on stigma reduction and ART adherence). Other effective interventions that improved ART adherence while reducing HIV-related stigma included empowerment program and youth peer-mentoring. Only one study focused on PrEP (comprising motivational interviewing, client-centered counseling), which showed stigma reduction and PrEP adherence. Although many interventions have the promise of HIV stigma reduction while simultaneously improving medication adherence, larger scale studies are needed for generalizability. The heterogeneity in measurement instruments for ART/PrEP adherence underscores the need for standardized scales. Cognitive behavioral therapy, empowerment interventions, youth peer-mentoring, motivational interviewing, and client-centered counseling all show effectiveness in reducing HIV self-stigma, while simultaneously improving medication adherence. Future studies should consider the inclusion of diverse populations and refining interventions to address HIV- stigma, especially about PrEP. It is critical to incorporate validated measurement tools to enhance comparability across research endeavors to address the complex interplay between stigma and adherence. PROSPERO number: CRD42023455610.

Model-based evaluation of the impact of a potential HIV cure on HIV transmission dynamics

The development of an HIV cure is a global health priority, with the target product profile (TPP) for an HIV cure guiding research efforts. Using a mathematical model calibrated to data from men who have sex with men (MSM) in the Netherlands, we assessed whether an effective cure could help end the HIV epidemic. Following the TPP, we evaluated two scenarios: (i) HIV remission, where the virus is suppressed in an individual without ongoing antiretroviral therapy (ART) but may rebound, and (ii) HIV eradication, which aims to completely remove the virus from the individual. Here, we show that sustained HIV remission (without rebound) or HIV eradication could reduce new HIV infections compared to a scenario without a cure. In contrast, transient HIV remission with a risk of rebound could increase new infections if rebounds are not closely monitored, potentially undermining HIV control efforts. Our findings emphasize the critical role of cure characteristics in maximizing cure benefits for public health and highlight the need to align HIV cure research with public health objectives to end the HIV epidemic.

A modeling study of pre-exposure prophylaxis to eliminate HIV in Taiwan by 2030

BACKGROUND

The necessity of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for ending the global AIDS epidemic by 2030 remains controversial. In Taiwan, the HIV epidemic predominantly affects young, sexually active men who have sex with men (MSM). This study aimed to model the impact and cost-effectiveness of a high-coverage oral emtricitabine/tenofovir PrEP program in Taiwan from an HIV elimination perspective.

METHODS

We applied stochastic and risk/age-structured deterministic modeling to assess the impact of PrEP scale-up on the basic reproduction number (R0) and the trajectory of the HIV epidemic in Taiwan, respectively. Both models were parameterized using the national HIV registry and cascade data. Cost-effectiveness was evaluated from a societal perspective.

RESULTS

Here we show that an intensive HIV test-and-treat strategy targeting HIV-positive individuals alone would substantially decrease HIV transmission but is not sufficient to eliminate the HIV epidemic among MSM at the estimated mixing level. In contrast, a PrEP program covering 50% of young, sexually active, high-risk, HIV-negative MSM would suppress HIV's R0 below 1, facilitating its elimination. It would also reduce HIV incidence to levels below the World Health Organization's HIV elimination threshold (1/1000 person-years) by 2030 and is highly cost-saving, yielding a benefit-cost ratio of 7.16. The program's effectiveness and cost-effectiveness remain robust even under conditions of risk compensation (i.e., no condom use among PrEP users), imperfect adherence (75%), or low-level emtricitabine/tenofovir resistance (1%).

CONCLUSION

Our findings strongly support scaling up PrEP for young, sexually active, high-risk, HIV-negative MSM as a critical strategy to end the HIV epidemic in Taiwan and globally.

Economic evaluation of short message service intervention for HIV prevention among men who have sex with men in China: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Men who have sex with men (MSM) globally face a high risk of HIV infection. Previous studies indicate that customized short message service (SMS) interventions could reduce high-risk behaviors that associated with HIV transmission. This study aims to evaluate the health and economic impacts of such interventions among MSM in China.

METHODS

A decision tree-Markov model was developed for a simulated cohort of 100,000 MSM of 20 years old. We assessed three intervention strategies: (1) routine strategy with standard health information; (2) SMS strategy with customized messages based on individual high-risk behaviors, with 50.1% efficacy and 50% coverage; (3) LEN-LA (lenacapavir long-acting) strategy as pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), with 100% efficacy lasting for 0.5-year and 50% coverage. The study period was 45 years. Primary outcomes included the number of HIV infections and HIV-related deaths. The cost-effectiveness, cost-utility and cost-benefit analyses were conducted along with sensitivity analyses from the healthcare sector perspective.

RESULTS

The SMS strategy was more effective, averting 6,191 (22.0%) HIV infections and 2,100 (38.5%) HIV-related deaths when compared with routine strategy. The average cost-effectiveness ratios (ACERs) were US$6,361 (95% CI: 5,959-6,613) per HIV infection averted and US$18,752 (95% CI: 17,274 - 20,530) per HIV-related death averted. It had incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of US$1,743 (95% CI: 1,673-1,799) per QALY, with a benefit cost ratio (BCR) of 1.98 (95% CI: 1.94-2.02), compared with routine strategy. While the LEN-LA strategy may be the most effective, its high cost, coupled with the highest ICER, currently presents a considerable obstacle to its widespread adoption. The ICERs were most affected by the probability of HIV infection, intervention cost and coverage.

CONCLUSIONS

SMS strategy for preventing HIV among MSM in China is cost-effective and could be a promising strategy for HIV prevention. These findings may have implications for public health policy and resource allocation in HIV prevention efforts targeting high-risk populations.

Stochastic optimal control of pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV infection for a jump model

We analyze a stochastic optimal control problem for the PReP vaccine in a model for the spread of HIV. To do so, we use a stochastic model for HIV/AIDS with PReP, where we include jumps in the model. This generalizes previous works in the field. First, we prove that there exists a positive, unique, global solution to the system of stochastic differential equations which makes up the model. Further, we introduce a stochastic control problem for dynamically choosing an optimal percentage of the population to receive PReP. By using the stochastic maximum principle, we derive an explicit expression for the stochastic optimal control. Furthermore, via a generalized Lagrange multiplier method in combination with the stochastic maximum principle, we study two types of budget constraints. We illustrate the results by numerical examples, both in the fixed control case and in the stochastic control case.

Engagement Along the PrEP Care Continuum Among Men Who Have Sex with Men in China: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), including daily oral, on-demand, and long-acting injectable (LAI), is a promising HIV prevention intervention for men who have sex with men (MSM). We conducted a systematic review on engagement with the PrEP continuum among MSM in China. A total of 756 studies were initially identified and 36 studies were included (N = 26,021). In the 20 studies (N = 13,886) examining PrEP awareness, 32.4% (95% CI: 25.1-40.7) of MSM were aware of PrEP. In the 25 studies (N = 18,587) examining willingness, 54.5% (95% CI: 41.9-66.5) MSM indicated they were willing to use PrEP. The pooled prevalence of PrEP uptake from 9 studies (N = 6,575) was 4.9% (95% CI: 1.4-15.8%), while pooled estimates of adequate adherence from five studies (N = 2,344) among MSM on PrEP was 40.7% (95% CI: 20.0-65.2%). Subgroup analyses suggested studies conducted after 2015 (versus before) tended to report higher awareness and uptake. Awareness was highest for daily oral PrEP, followed by on-demand, and LAI PrEP; willingness to use was highest for LAI PrEP. The operationalization of willingness and adherence constructs varied across studies and complicated the interpretation of pooled estimates. This review revealed gaps in the PrEP care continuum among MSM in China, with relatively low awareness and uptake (in contrast to willingness and adherence) as the major potential barriers to widespread implementation and the need for a unified approach to defining and measuring PrEP outcomes.

Awareness, Intention to Use Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis, and Factors Associated with Awareness among Men Who Have Sex with Men in the Republic of Korea

This study assessed pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) awareness, knowledge, and attitudes in a sample of 1389 men who have sex with men (MSM). Using a self-report survey, we measured PrEP knowledge mean scores, attitudes toward PrEP, and awareness rates to identify the key influences on PrEP uptake. PrEP awareness among participants was 66.3%, with 33.7% having never heard of PrEP. Approximately 4.5% had previous experience with PrEP but were not current users, while only 2.7% reported that they were currently taking it. Logistic regression analysis revealed that the significant predictors of PrEP awareness were educational attainment, marital status, prior HIV testing knowledge, and attitudes toward PrEP. Several demographic factors were not significant predictors of intention to use PrEP; however, using the internet to meet partners, number of partners, HIV testing, positive attitudes, and reduced perceived barriers played a critical role in shaping PrEP use intentions. These findings highlight the critical role of targeted educational strategies and tailored public health messaging in enhancing the awareness and intention to use PrEP among MSM.

Pre-exposure prophylaxis against HIV infection

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) decreases the risk for HIV transmission in high-risk populations. PrEP has been available in Denmark since 2019 and consists of antiretroviral drugs in a combination tablet taken daily or on demand. The effect of this prophylaxis in Denmark is summarized in the review. PrEP is indicated in men and transgender persons with unprotected anal intercourse with multiple male partners in the latest 12 weeks or recent diagnoses of syphilis, chlamydia, or gonorrhoea. PrEP is provided by infectious disease specialists. Continued implementation could significantly reduce HIV transmission and potentially end the epidemic in Denmark.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis in Japan

BACKGROUND

While global efforts have been made to prevent transmission of HIV, the epidemic persists. Men who have sex with men (MSM) are at high risk of infection. Despite evidence of its cost-effectiveness in other jurisdictions, pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for MSM is neither approved nor reimbursed in Japan.

METHOD

The cost-effectiveness analysis compared the use of once daily PrEP versus no PrEP among MSM over a 30-year time horizon from a national healthcare perspective. Epidemiological estimates for each of the 47 prefectures informed the model. Costs included HIV/AIDS treatment, HIV and testing for sexually transmitted infections, monitoring tests and consults, and hospitalization costs. Analyses included health and cost outcomes, as well as the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) reported as the cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) for all of Japan and each prefecture. Sensitivity analyses were performed.

FINDINGS

The estimated proportion of HIV infections prevented with the use of PrEP ranged from 48% to 69% across Japan, over the time horizon. Cost savings due to lower monitoring costs and general medical costs were observed. Assuming 100% coverage, for Japan overall, daily use of PrEP costs less and was more effective; daily use of PrEP was cost-effective at a willingness to pay threshold of ¥5,000,000 per QALY in 32 of the 47 prefectures. Sensitivity analyses found that the ICER was most sensitive to the cost of PrEP.

INTERPRETATION

Compared to no PrEP use, once daily PrEP is a cost-effective strategy in Japanese MSM, reducing the clinical and economic burden associated with HIV.

Prevalence of HIV in Kazakhstan 2010-2020 and Its Forecasting for the Next 10 Years

Background

HIV is a growing public health burden that threatens thousands of people in Kazakhstan. Countries around the world, including Kazakhstan, are facing significant problems in predicting HIV infection prevalence. It is crucial to understand the epidemiological trends of infectious diseases and to monitor the prevalence of HIV in a long-term perspective. Thus, in this study, we aimed to forecast the prevalence of HIV in Kazakhstan for 10 years from 2020 to 2030 by using mathematical modeling and time series analysis.

Methods

We use statistical Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models and a nonlinear epidemic Susceptible-Infected (SI) model to forecast the HIV infection prevalence rate in Kazakhstan. We estimated the parameters of the models using open data on the prevalence of HIV infection among women and men (aged 15-49 years) in Kazakhstan provided by the Kazakhstan Bureau of National Statistics. We also predict the effect of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) control measures on the prevalence rate.

Results

The ARIMA (1,2,0) model suggests that the prevalence of HIV infection in Kazakhstan will increase from 0.29 in 2021 to 0.47 by 2030. On the other hand, the SI model suggests that this parameter will increase to 0.60 by 2030 based on the same data. Both models were statistically significant by Akaike Information Criterion corrected (AICc) score and by the goodness of fit. HIV prevention under the PrEP strategy on the SI model showed a significant effect on the reduction of the HIV prevalence rate.

Conclusion

This study revealed that ARIMA (1,2,0) predicts a linear increasing trend, while SI forecasts a nonlinear increase with a higher prevalence of HIV. Therefore, it is recommended for healthcare providers and policymakers use this model to calculate the cost required for the regional allocation of healthcare resources. Moreover, this model can be used for planning effective healthcare treatments.

Population-level impact of expanding PrEP coverage by offering long-acting injectable PrEP to MSM in three high-resource settings: a model comparison analysis

INTRODUCTION

Long-acting injectable cabotegravir (CAB-LA) demonstrated superiority to daily tenofovir disoproxil fumarate/emtricitabine (TDF/FTC) for HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in the HPTN 083/084 trials. We compared the potential impact of expanding PrEP coverage by offering CAB-LA to men who have sex with men (MSM) in Atlanta (US), Montreal (Canada) and the Netherlands, settings with different HIV epidemics.

METHODS

Three risk-stratified HIV transmission models were independently parameterized and calibrated to local data. In Atlanta, Montreal and the Netherlands, the models, respectively, estimated mean TDF/FTC coverage starting at 29%, 7% and 4% in 2022, and projected HIV incidence per 100 person-years (PY), respectively, decreasing from 2.06 to 1.62, 0.08 to 0.03 and 0.07 to 0.001 by 2042. Expansion of PrEP coverage was simulated by recruiting new CAB-LA users and by switching different proportions of TDF/FTC users to CAB-LA. Population effectiveness and efficiency of PrEP expansions were evaluated over 20 years in comparison to baseline scenarios with TDF/FTC only.

RESULTS

Increasing PrEP coverage by 11 percentage points (pp) from 29% to 40% by 2032 was expected to avert a median 36% of new HIV acquisitions in Atlanta. Substantially larger increases (by 33 or 26 pp) in PrEP coverage (to 40% or 30%) were needed to achieve comparable reductions in Montreal and the Netherlands, respectively. A median 17 additional PYs on PrEP were needed to prevent one acquisition in Atlanta with 40% PrEP coverage, compared to 1000+ in Montreal and 4000+ in the Netherlands. Reaching 50% PrEP coverage by 2032 by recruiting CAB-LA users among PrEP-eligible MSM could avert >45% of new HIV acquisitions in all settings. Achieving targeted coverage 5 years earlier increased the impact by 5-10 pp. In the Atlanta model, PrEP expansions achieving 40% and 50% coverage reduced differences in PrEP access between PrEP-indicated White and Black MSM from 23 to 9 pp and 4 pp, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Achieving high PrEP coverage by offering CAB-LA can impact the HIV epidemic substantially if rolled out without delays. These PrEP expansions may be efficient in settings with high HIV incidence (like Atlanta) but not in settings with low HIV incidence (like Montreal and the Netherlands).

Health Economics Research on Non-surgical Biomedical HIV Prevention: Identifying Gaps and Proposing a Way Forward

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Although HIV prevention science has advanced over the last four decades, evidence suggests that prevention technologies do not always reach their full potential. Critical health economics evidence at appropriate decision-making junctures, particularly early in the development process, could help identify and address potential barriers to the eventual uptake of future HIV prevention products. This paper aims to identify key evidence gaps and propose health economics research priorities for the field of HIV non-surgical biomedical prevention.

METHODS

We used a mixed-methods approach with three distinct components: (i) three systematic literature reviews (costs and cost effectiveness, HIV transmission modelling and quantitative preference elicitation) to understand health economics evidence and gaps in the peer-reviewed literature; (ii) an online survey with researchers working in this field to capture gaps in yet-to-be published research (recently completed, ongoing and future); and (iii) a stakeholder meeting with key global and national players in HIV prevention, including experts in product development, health economics research and policy uptake, to uncover further gaps, as well as to elicit views on priorities and recommendations based on (i) and (ii).

RESULTS

Gaps in the scope of available health economics evidence were identified. Little research has been carried out on certain key populations (e.g. transgender people and people who inject drugs) and other vulnerable groups (e.g. pregnant people and people who breastfeed). Research is also lacking on preferences of community actors who often influence or enable access to health services among priority populations. Oral pre-exposure prophylaxis, which has been rolled out in many settings, has been studied in depth. However, research on newer promising technologies, such as long-acting pre-exposure prophylaxis formulations, broadly neutralising antibodies and multipurpose prevention technologies, is lacking. Interventions focussing on reducing intravenous and vertical transmission are also understudied. A disproportionate amount of evidence on low- and middle-income countries comes from two countries (South Africa and Kenya); evidence from other countries in sub-Saharan Africa as well as other low- and middle-income countries is needed. Further, data are needed on non-facility-based service delivery modalities, integrated service delivery and ancillary services. Key methodological gaps were also identified. An emphasis on equity and representation of heterogeneous populations was lacking. Research rarely acknowledged the complex and dynamic use of prevention technologies over time. Greater efforts are needed to collect primary data, quantify uncertainty, systematically compare the full range of prevention options available, and validate pilot and modelling data once interventions are scaled up. Clarity on appropriate cost-effectiveness outcome measures and thresholds is also lacking. Lastly, research often fails to reflect policy-relevant questions and approaches.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite a large body of health economics evidence on non-surgical biomedical HIV prevention technologies, important gaps in the scope of evidence and methodology remain. To ensure that high-quality research influences key decision-making junctures and facilitates the delivery of prevention products in a way that maximises impact, we make five broad recommendations related to: improved study design, an increased focus on service delivery, greater community and stakeholder engagement, the fostering of an active network of partners across sectors and an enhanced application of research.

Temporal trends in inequalities of the burden of HIV/AIDS across 186 countries and territories

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has reported that HIV/AIDS continues to take a disproportionate toll on global health. However, the trends in global inequality of HIV/AIDS burden have remained ambiguous over the past two decades. The objectives of our study were to assess the socioeconomic inequalities, and temporal trends of HIV/AIDS across 186 countries and territories from 2000 to 2019.

METHODS

We extracted data from the GBD 2019, and conducted a cross-national time-series analysis. Age-standardized disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) rates were used to measure the global burden of HIV/AIDS. Gross national income (GNI) per capita was used to approximate the national socioeconomic status. Linear regression analysis was conducted to investigate the relationship between age-standardized DALY rates due to HIV/AIDS and GNI per capita. The concentration curve and concentration index (CI) were generated to evaluate the cross-national socioeconomic inequality of HIV/AIDS burden. A joinpoint regression analysis was used to quantify the changes in trends in socioeconomic inequality of HIV/AIDS burden from 2000 to 2019.

RESULTS

A decrease in age-standardized DALY rates for HIV/AIDS occurred in 132 (71%) of 186 countries/territories from 2000 to 2019, of which 52 (39%) countries/territories achieved a decrease in DALYs of more than 50%, and 27 (52%) of the 52 were from sub-Saharan Africa. The concentration curves of the age-standardized DALY rates of HIV/AIDS were above the equality line from 2000 to 2019. The CI rose from - 0.4625 (95% confidence interval - 0.6220 to -0.2629) in 2000 to -0.4122 (95% confidence interval - 0.6008 to -0.2235) in 2019. A four-phase trend of changes in the CIs of age-standardized DALY rates for HIV/AIDS was observed across 2000 to 2019, with an average increase of 0.6% (95% confidence interval 0.4 to 0.8, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Globally, the burden of HIV/AIDS has decreased over the past two decades, accompanied by a trend of narrowing cross-country inequalities of HIV/AIDS burden. Moreover, the burden of HIV/AIDS continues to fall primarily in low-income countries.

Costs and Cost-Effectiveness of Biomedical, Non-Surgical HIV Prevention Interventions: A Systematic Literature Review

BACKGROUND

Considerable evidence on the costs and cost-effectiveness of biomedical, non-surgical interventions to prevent human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission has been generated over the last decade. This study aims to synthesize findings and identify remaining knowledge gaps to suggest future research priorities.

METHODS

A systematic literature review was carried out in August 2020 using the MEDLINE, Embase, Global Health and EconLit databases to retrieve economic evaluations and costing studies of oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), injectable long-acting PrEP, vaginal microbicide rings and gels, HIV vaccines and broadly neutralizing antibodies. Studies reporting costs from the provider or societal perspective were included in the analysis. Those reporting on behavioural methods of prevention, condoms and surgical approaches (voluntary medical male circumcision) were excluded. The quality of reporting of the included studies was assessed using published checklists.

RESULTS

We identified 3007 citations, of which 87 studies were retained. Most were set in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs; n = 53) and focused on the costs and/or cost-effectiveness of oral PrEP regimens (n = 70). Model-based economic evaluations were the most frequent study design; only two trial-based cost-effectiveness analyses and nine costing studies were found. Less than half of the studies provided practical details on how the intervention would be delivered by the health system, and only three of these, all in LMICs, explicitly focused on service integration and its implication for delivery costs. 'Real-world' programme delivery mechanisms and costs of intervention delivery were rarely considered. PrEP technologies were generally found to be cost-effective only when targeting high-risk subpopulations. Single-dose HIV vaccines are expected to be cost-effective for all groups despite substantial uncertainty around pricing.

CONCLUSIONS

A lack of primary, detailed and updated cost data, including above-service level costs, from a variety of settings makes it difficult to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of specific delivery modes at scale, or to evaluate strategies for services integration. Closing this evidence gap around real-world implementation is vital, not least because the strategies targeting high-risk groups that are recommended by PrEP models may incur substantially higher costs and be of limited practical feasibility in some settings.

Multi-dimensional mismatch and barriers for promoting PrEP among men who have sex with men in China: a cross sectional survey from the Demand-side

BACKGROUND

Men who have sex with men (MSM) is a key population for preventing HIV in China, yet pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is not widely accepted in this population. The objective of this manuscript was to assessed the barriers in the acknowledgement and uptake focusing the demand side.

METHODS

An online questionnaire survey was conducted from December 2018 to January 2019. All participants were required to scan two-dimensional code which was the online crowdsourcing survey platform to complete the electronic questionnaire anonymously.

RESULTS

Among 1915 MSM from thirty-four cities of China, 512 (26.7%) versus 1617 (84.4%) had an objective or subjective need of PrEP, respectively. One hundred and six (5.5%) reported affordability and only 23 (1.2%) had ever taken it. Age, living alone and occupation were associated with the objective needs. Age, income, sexual behavior were associated with actual usage. The participants who they had objective need to use PrEP are the population which we should focus on.

CONCLUSION

A wide disconnect exists among the objective need, willingness, affordability and uptake of PrEP. Cost was the most prevalent barrier, accounting for 78.22% of individuals who needed and wished for PrEP but finally failed to receive it. The findings might facilitate optimizing future allocation of resources to better promote PrEP in Chinese MSM.

Awareness and use of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis and factors associated with awareness among MSM in Beijing, China

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) sexual transmission among men who have sex with men (MSM) has increased markedly in Beijing, China in the past decade. Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is a highly efficacious biomedical prevention strategy that remarkably reduces HIV-transmission risk. This study examined PrEP awareness among MSM and the factors influencing it. From April to July 2021, respondent-driven sampling was used to conduct a cross-sectional survey among MSM in Beijing, China. Demographic, behavior, and awareness data regarding PrEP were collected. The factors influencing PrEP awareness were assessed using univariate and multivariable logistic regression. In total, 608 eligible responders were included in the study. Among the respondents, 27.9% had PrEP awareness, 3.3% had taken PrEP, and 57.9% expressed interest in receiving PrEP, if required. Greater odds of PrEP awareness were associated with higher education level (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 3.525, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.013-6.173, P < 0.0001), greater HIV-related knowledge (aOR 3.605, 95% CI 2.229-5.829, P < 0.0001), HIV testing (aOR 2.647, 95% CI 1.463-4.788, P = 0.0013), and sexually transmitted infections (aOR 2.064, 95% CI 1.189-3.584, P = 0.0101). Lower odds of PrEP awareness were associated with higher stigma score (aOR 0.729, 95% CI 0.591-0.897, P = 0.0029). The findings indicate sub-optimal awareness and low utilization of PrEP in Beijing and highlight PrEP inequities among MSM with stigma. Strengthening the training of peer educators in disseminating PrEP knowledge and reducing stigma are critical for improving PrEP awareness.

Detection of Polish cases of highly virulent subtype B of HIV-1 originating in the Netherlands

Infection with the human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) subtype B is most commonly acquired in Poland through men who have sex with men (MSM) comparable to the HIV epidemic in the Netherlands. Following a paper by Chris Wymant et al. on February 4, 2022 in Science on a highly virulent variant of HIV-1 subtype-B (VB-variant) in the Netherlands raised concerns about the possibility of the variant dissemination to other European countries. We aim to report the spread of HIV-1 VB-variant, recently identified in the Netherlands, into other European regions. Subtype B pol gene fragments of protease (P), reverse transcriptase (RT), and integrase (IN) from our laboratory supplemented with publicly available sequences were inferred with VB samples from the Netherlands. For positively clustering samples, clinical observations were compiled. Between May 2009 and August 2014, three cases of VB sequences of Polish origin and one additional from Belgium were identified. Patients presented with elevated viral loads and fast CD4 decline as original characteristics. The mean number of base substitutions per site within the clade versus interclade variability showed a high intragroup sequence similarity, reflecting an ongoing MSM transmission cluster for Polish sequences. The sampling period coincides with the ongoing Dutch VB-variant spread reported between 2003 and 2014. This study informs on phylogenetic descriptions, and clinical symptoms from the rare and emerging VBs placed in Poland. VB is not expanding since 2014 and the Inviduals infected with the VB virus can be treated successfully. Studies on the propagation of novel and potentially virulent virus variants in the undersampled regions add to the understanding of the pan-European HIV-1 transmission dynamics.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of the daily HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis in men who have sex with men in Barcelona

INTRODUCTION

Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV prevention has been implemented in several countries. Previous literature has shown that its cost-effectiveness (and, under some specifications, cost-saving character) is dependent on the reduction in price due to generics, the time-horizon and its effectiveness. The intervention has never been studied in Catalonia after the approval of the PrEP, a territory with extensive implementation.

METHODS

Economic evaluation of the implementation of HIV pre-exposition prophylaxis using administrative data from Men who have Sex with Men (MSM) who receive the treatment (at the generic price) compared with non-implementation. A deterministic compartmental model and a social perspective with a micro-costing approach over the time horizon 2022-2062 are used. A baseline 86% effectiveness of PrEP is assumed.

RESULTS

Daily oral PrEP is found to be cost-saving: discounted savings in costs are attained after 16 years, and after 40 years they reach 81 million euros. In terms of health indicators, 10,322 additional discounted QALYs are generated by the intervention. Results are sensitive to sexual behavioral patterns among MSM, the price of PrEP (reduced if offered on-demand), its effectiveness and the discount rate.

CONCLUSIONS

The use and promotion of PrEP in Catalonia is predicted to result in substantial health and monetary benefits because of reductions in HIV infections. Short-term investments in the promotion of PrEP will result in important cost-savings in the long term.

Eligibility criteria vs. need for pre-exposure prophylaxis: a reappraisal among men who have sex with men in Amsterdam, the Netherlands

To reappraise pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) eligibility criteria towards the men who have sex with men (MSM) with highest HIV-risk, we assessed PrEP need (i.e. HIV-risk) using Amsterdam Cohort Studies data from 2011-2017 for all non-PrEP using MSM. Outcomes were incident HIV-infection and newly-diagnosed anal STI. Determinants were current PrEP eligibility criteria (anal STI and condomless sex (CAS)) and additional determinants (age, education, group sex, alcohol use during sex and chemsex). We used targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE) to estimate the relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of determinants on outcomes, and calculated population attributable fractions (PAFs) with 95% CI using RRs from TMLE. Among 810 included MSM, 22 HIV-infections and 436 anal STIs (n = 229) were diagnosed during follow-up. Chemsex (RR = 5.8 (95% CI 2.0-17.0); PAF = 55.3% (95% CI 43.3-83.4)), CAS with a casual partner (RR = 3.3 (95% CI 1.3-8.7); PAF = 38.0% (95% CI 18.3-93.6)) and anal STI (RR = 5.3 (95% CI 1.7-16.7); PAF = 22.0 (95% CI -16.8 to 100.0)) were significantly (P < 0.05) associated with and had highest attributable risk fractions for HIV. Chemsex (RR = 2.0 (95% CI 1.6-2.4); PAF = 19.5 (95% CI 10.6-30.6)) and CAS with a casual partner (RR = 2.5 (95% CI 2.0-3.0); PAF = 28.0 (95% CI 21.0-36.4)) were also significantly associated with anal STI, as was younger age (16-34/≥35; RR = 1.7 (95% CI 1.4-2.1); PAF = 15.5 (95% CI 6.4-27.6)) and group sex (RR = 1.3 (95% CI 1.1-1.6); PAF = 9.0 (95% CI -2.3 to 23.7)). Chemsex should be an additional PrEP eligibility criterion.

Leveraging Resilience-supportive Strategies to Enhance Protective Factors in Young Sexual Minority Men: A Scoping Review of HIV Behavioral Interventions Implemented in High-income Countries

Behavioral HIV interventions focused on strengthening young sexual minority men's (SMM) internal (assets) and external (resources) protective factors are promising, yet their evaluation as resilience-supportive strategies to minimize or negate HIV-related risks remain understudied. The objective of this scoping review was to describe resilience-supportive intervention strategies that have been used to achieve desired HIV behavioral outcomes and to identify how these strategies have been evaluated using a resilience analytic framework. Our scoping review uncovered 271 peer-reviewed articles, of which 38 were eligible for inclusion based on our review criteria. The majority of interventions relied on social support strategies as their primary resilience-supportive strategy. A third of interventions reviewed analyzed their findings from a deficits-focused model, another third used compensatory resilience models, and the remaining interventions employed a hybrid (i.e., deficit and compensatory model) strategy. None of the interventions evaluated their intervention effects using a risk-protective model. From our synthesis regarding the current state of research around resilience-informed interventions, we propose strategies to inform the design of resilience-supportive approaches and make recommendations to move the field forward on how to develop, implement, and measure young SMM's resiliency processes.

Stochastic optimal control of pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV infection

The aim of the paper is to apply the stochastic optimal control problem in order to optimize the number of individual which will have the pre-exposure prophylaxis (PReP) treatment in the stochastic model for HIV/AIDS with PReP. By using the stochastic maximum principle, we derive the stochastic optimal control of PReP for the unconstrained control problem. Furthermore, by combining the stochastic maximum principle with a version of the Lagrange multiplier method, we solve the PReP problem for two different types of budget constrains with a given constrain for the costs (possible of different kind, transportation, price of the treatment, etc.). Obtained results for the different percentage of the individuals who got the vaccine, as well as results for unconstrained and constrained problems, are illustrated by a numerical example.

Determinants of PrEP Uptake, Intention and Awareness in the Netherlands: A Socio-Spatial Analysis

PrEP uptake in the Netherlands is growing but remains at suboptimal levels. Hence, the analysis of hurdles is paramount. Given the initial focus of PrEP provision among men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM) via a demonstration project that was launched in June 2015, AmPrEP in Amsterdam, and pharmacies in the main urban areas (so called "Randstad", entailing Amsterdam, Utrecht, Leiden, The Hague and Rotterdam), investigating regional differences is necessary. This study seeks to unravel regional differences jointly with the psycho-social determinants of PrEP uptake. This cross-sectional study included 3232 HIV-negative MSM recruited via the Dutch subsample of the European-MSM-Internet-Survey in late 2017 (EMIS-2017), which aimed to inform interventions for MSM who are highly affected by infections with HIV and other sexually transmitted infections. Prevalence and the standardised prevalence ratio (SPR) of PrEP awareness, intention and uptake were measured on a regional level (Randstad vs. the rest of the country). Multi-level logistic modelling was conducted to identify the association of PrEP uptake with PrEP awareness and intention, socio-demographic, psycho-social determinants and random effects from regional differences. MSM from the Randstad used more PrEP (SPR = 1.4 vs. 0.7) compared to the rest of the country, but there were minor differences for awareness and intention. The regional distinction was estimated to explain 4.6% of the PrEP use variance. We observed a greater influence from PrEP intention (aOR = 4.5, 95% CI 2.0-10.1), while there was limited influence from the awareness of PrEP (aOR = 0.4, 95% CI 0.04-4.4). Lower education (aOR = 0.4, 95% CI 0.2-0.9) was negatively associated with PrEP uptake; however, no significant difference was found between middle (aOR = 1.2, 95% CI 0.7-2.0) and high education. We showed that regional differences-MSM in non-urban regions-and other psycho-social determinants account for lower PrEP uptake. Based on these findings, more fine-tuned PrEP access with a focus on non-urban regions can be implemented, and tailored campaigns increasing intention/use can be conducted among target populations.

The Cost-Effectiveness of HIV/STI Prevention in High-Income Countries with Concentrated Epidemic Settings: A Scoping Review

The purpose of this scoping review is to establish the state of the art on economic evaluations in the field of HIV/STI prevention in high-income countries with concentrated epidemic settings and to assess what we know about the cost-effectiveness of different measures. We reviewed economic evaluations of HIV/STI prevention measures published in the Web of Science and Cost-Effectiveness Registry databases. We included a total of 157 studies focusing on structural, behavioural, and biomedical interventions, covering a variety of contexts, target populations and approaches. The majority of studies are based on mathematical modelling and demonstrate that the preventive measures under scrutiny are cost-effective. Interventions targeted at high-risk populations yield the most favourable results. The generalisability and transferability of the study results are limited due to the heterogeneity of the populations, settings and methods involved. Furthermore, the results depend heavily on modelling assumptions. Since evidence is unequally distributed, we discuss implications for future research.

PrEP user profiles, dynamics of PrEP use and follow-up: a cohort analysis at a Belgian HIV centre (2017-2020)

Introduction

The number of individuals initiating antiretroviral pre‐exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is increasing, but we do not fully understand who is coming forward for PrEP, how they use it and how they are followed‐up. The objective of this study was to examine PrEP user profiles, dynamics in PrEP use and follow‐up over time.

Methods

We conducted a cohort analysis of longitudinally collected clinical record and questionnaire data among PrEP users at an HIV centre in Antwerp, Belgium, between June 2017 and March 2020. PrEP follow‐up and user profiles were examined using descriptive analyses and bivariate logistic regression. We compared early adopting PrEP users (started before June 2018) with late users. We also calculated the probabilities of switching between daily and on‐demand PrEP, and interruption, using a naïve estimator.

Results and discussion

We included 1347 PrEP users in the analysis. After 12 months, retention in care was 72.3%. Median time between PrEP visits was 98 days (IQR 85–119 days). At screening visit, early adopting PrEP users (starting June 2017–May 2018) were significantly more likely to report one or more sexually transmitted infection in the prior 12 months, having used drugs during sex, a higher number of sexual partners and a history of paid sex and PrEP use prior to initiation, compared with PrEP users who initiated later (starting June 2018–February 2020). When taking PrEP daily, the probability of staying on daily PrEP at the next visit was 76%, while this was 73% when taking PrEP on‐demand. Those using on‐demand PrEP had a higher probability (13%) of interrupting PrEP care than daily PrEP users (7%), whereas those returning to PrEP care would mostly re‐start with on‐demand (35% vs. 13% for daily).

Conclusions

The majority of PrEP users in this sample remained in care after 12 months. The probability of remaining on the same PrEP regimen at the subsequent visit was high. Though, we observed a diversity of transitions between regimens and interruptions in between visits. Our findings reaffirm the need to provide tailored PrEP services, counselling PrEP users across their life course.

Cost-effectiveness of oral pre-exposure prophylaxis and expanded antiretroviral therapy for preventing HIV infections in the presence of drug resistance among men who have sex with men in China: A mathematical modelling study

Background

Oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and antiretroviral therapy (ART) can effectively prevent HIV infections among men who have sex with men (MSM), but the emergence and transmission of HIV drug-resistance (HIVDR) may compromise their benefits. The costs and benefits of expanding PrEP and ART coverage in the presence of HIVDR in China remain unknown.

Methods

We developed a comprehensive dynamic transmission model incorporating the transmitted (TDR) and acquired (ADR) HIV drug resistance. The model was calibrated by the HIV surveillance data from 2009 to 2019 among MSM in Jiangsu Province, China, and validated by the dynamic prevalence of ADR and TDR. We aimed to investigate the impact of eight intervention scenarios (no PrEP, 20%, 50% or 80% of PrEP, without (77% coverage) or with (90% coverage) expanded ART) on the HIV epidemic trend and cost-effectiveness of PrEP over the next 30 years.

Findings

20% or 50% PrEP + 90% ART would be cost-effective, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of 25,417 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 12,390–38,445) or 47,243 (23,756–70,729), and would yield 154,949 (89,662–220,237) or 179,456 (102,570–256,342) incremental quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) over the next 30 years. No PrEP + 90% ART would yield 125,211 (73,448–176,974) incremental QALYs and be cost-saving. However, 20–80% PrEP + 77% ART and 80% PrEP + 90% ART with ICER of $77,862–$98,338 and $63,332, respectively, and were not cost-effective. A reduction of 64% in the annual cost of oral PrEP would make it highly cost-effective for 50% PrEP + 90% ART.

Interpretation

20% or 50% PrEP + 90% ART is cost-effective for HIV control in the presence of HIVDR. Expanded ART alone may be the optimal policy under the current limited budgets.

Funding

National Natural Science Foundation of China, the National S&T Major Project Foundation of China.

Non-selective distribution of infectious disease prevention may outperform risk-based targeting

Epidemic control often requires optimal distribution of available vaccines and prophylactic tools, to protect from infection those susceptible. Well-established theory recommends prioritizing those at the highest risk of exposure. But the risk is hard to estimate, especially for diseases involving stigma and marginalization. We address this conundrum by proving that one should target those at high risk only if the infection-averting efficacy of prevention is above a critical value, which we derive analytically. We apply this to the distribution of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) of the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) among men-having-sex-with-men (MSM), a population particularly vulnerable to HIV. PrEP is effective in averting infections, but its global scale-up has been slow, showing the need to revisit distribution strategies, currently risk-based. Using data from MSM communities in 58 countries, we find that non-selective PrEP distribution often outperforms risk-based, showing that a logistically simpler strategy is also more effective. Our theory may help design more feasible and successful prevention.

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is an effective HIV prevention measure but identifying those most at risk to target for treatment is challenging. Here, the authors demonstrate that non-selective PrEP distribution outperforms targeted strategies when use is not consistent, and/or prevalence of untreated HIV is high.

Evaluating the cost-effectiveness of a pre-exposure prophylaxis program for HIV prevention for men who have sex with men in Japan

Men who have sex with men (MSM) have been disproportionally affected by the HIV epidemic in many countries, including Japan. Although pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is a strong prevention tool, it is not yet approved in Japan. A Markov model was developed to describe HIV infection and disease progression in an MSM cohort (N = 1000) in Japan receiving a PrEP program. The model was used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a PrEP program. HIV/AIDS treatment, screening, hospitalization due to AIDS, and PrEP were considered as costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained as utilities. Cost-effectiveness was assessed by comparing the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) over a 30-year period against the willingness to pay (WTP) threshold. One-way sensitivity and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. With 50% PrEP coverage, the PrEP program became dominant against the program without PrEP, using a threshold of 5.0 million JPY/QALY (45,455 USD). The probabilistic sensitivity analysis revealed that the PrEP program was dominant or at least cost-effective in most cases of 10,000 simulations. Therefore, preparing cheaper PrEP pills, which results in PrEP being dominant or ICER being lower than the WTP threshold, is important to make the program cost-effective. Introduction of PrEP to an MSM cohort in Japan would be cost-effective over a 30-year time horizon.

Time for change: Transitions between HIV risk levels and determinants of behavior change in men who have sex with men

As individual sexual behavior is variable over time, the timing of interventions might be vital to reducing HIV transmission. We aimed to investigate transitions between HIV risk levels among men who have sex with men (MSM), and identify determinants associated with behavior change. Participants in a longitudinal cohort study among HIV-negative MSM (Amsterdam Cohort Studies) completed questionnaires about their sexual behavior during biannual visits (2008-2017). Visits were assigned to different HIV risk levels, based on latent classes of behavior. We modelled transitions between risk levels, and identified determinants associated with these transitions at the visit preceding the transition using multi-state Markov models. Based on 7,865 visits of 767 participants, we classified three risk levels: low (73% of visits), medium (22%), and high risk (5%). For MSM at low risk, the six-month probability of increasing risk was 0.11. For MSM at medium risk, the probability of increasing to high risk was 0.08, while the probability of decreasing to low risk was 0.33. For MSM at high risk, the probability of decreasing risk was 0.43. Chemsex, erection stimulants and poppers, high HIV risk perception, and recent STI diagnosis were associated with increased risk at the next visit. High HIV risk perception and young age were associated with decreasing risk. Although the majority of MSM showed no behavior change, a considerable proportion increased HIV risk. Determinants associated with behavior change may help to identify MSM who are likely to increase risk in the near future and target interventions at these individuals, thereby reducing HIV transmission.

A Comparison of Tenofovir Predose Concentrations in Generic Pre-exposure Prophylaxis Formulations: A Short Communication

BACKGROUND

There is extensive evidence to show that pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) using tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF)-based formulations dramatically reduces the risk of HIV acquisition among individuals without HIV infection. Here, the authors aim to compare tenofovir plasma predose concentrations in subjects taking PrEP daily versus on demand and using different TDF-based generic formulations.

METHODS

Subjects providing informed signed consent for the measurement of tenofovir plasma levels were included in the study. Predose drug concentrations were stratified according to PrEP administration and the type of TDF-based formulation. The control group consisted of patients with HIV infection who were matched for renal function and were administered branded TDF that was not combined with boosted-antiretroviral drugs.

RESULTS

The study consisted of 100 subjects (mean age, 39 ± 10 years; body weight, 77 ± 11 kg). A wide distribution in tenofovir predose concentrations was observed, with values ranging from 17 to 297 ng/mL (coefficient of variation 77%). No significant differences were noted in tenofovir predose concentrations between subjects who were administered PrEP daily (n = 75) or on demand (n = 25) [94 (35-255) versus 104 (37-287) ng/mL; P = 0.476]. Comparable tenofovir predose concentrations were found between patients with HIV infection (n = 220) who were administered branded TDF and those without HIV infection who were treated with 5 different generic TDF-based formulations with generics-to-branded ratios. These were always within the range of 80%-125% and were used to define bioequivalence.

CONCLUSIONS

The marketed generic formulations of TDF delivered tenofovir plasma predose concentrations comparable with those delivered by branded formulations.

Offering a choice of daily and event-driven preexposure prophylaxis for men who have sex with men in the Netherlands: a cost-effectiveness analysis

OBJECTIVES

To assess the cost-effectiveness of a preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) programme offering a choice of daily and event-driven PrEP for men who have sex with men (MSM) in the Netherlands.

METHODS

We used an agent-based transmission model and an economic model to simulate a programme offering only daily PrEP and a programme offering daily and event-driven PrEP. Use of PrEP medication and preference for daily versus event-driven PrEP were estimated from the Amsterdam PrEP Demonstration Project (AMPrEP). We calculated costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALY), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER), over 2018-2027. An ICER less than €20 000 per QALY gained was considered cost-effective.

RESULTS

Using AMPrEP data, we estimated that 27% of PrEP users chose event-driven PrEP with a median of 12 pills per month; daily PrEP users used a median of 30 pills per month. With PrEP, 3740 HIV infections were averted and 1482 QALYs were gained over 2018-2027, compared to the scenario without PrEP. The probability of the PrEP programme being cost-effective (compared to not having a PrEP programme) increased from 91% with daily PrEP to 94% with a choice of daily and event-driven PrEP. The probability of being cost-saving increased from 42% with only daily PrEP to 48% with choice of daily and event-driven PrEP.

CONCLUSIONS

A daily PrEP programme for MSM would be cost-effective. Providing a choice of daily and event-driven PrEP can result in savings and is more likely to be cost-effective and cost-saving, compared to a programme offering only daily PrEP.

Choosing event-driven and daily HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis - data from two European PrEP demonstration projects among men who have sex with men

INTRODUCTION

Daily and event-driven PrEP are both efficacious in reducing the risk for HIV infection. However, the practice of event-driven PrEP (edPrEP) is less well studied, in particular when provided as an alternative to daily PrEP. We studied regimen preferences and switches, and sexually transmitted infection (STI) incidence.

METHODS

We analysed pooled data from two prospective cohort studies among MSM: Be-PrEP-ared, Belgium and AMPrEP, the Netherlands. In both projects, participants could choose between daily and edPrEP at three-monthly study visits, when they were also screened for sexually transmitted infections including hepatitis C (HCV). We assessed the proportion choosing each regimen, and the determinants of choosing edPrEP at baseline. Additionally, we compared the incidence rates (IRs) of HCV, syphilis and chlamydia or gonorrhoea between regimens using Poisson regression. The study period was from 3 August 2015 until 24 September 2018.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

We included 571 MSM, of whom 148 (25.9%) chose edPrEP at baseline. 31.7% of participants switched regimen at least once. After 28 months, 23.5% used edPrEP. Older participants (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 1.38 per 10 years, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.15 to 1.64) and those unemployed (aOR = 1.68, 95% CI = 1.03 to 1.75) were more likely to initially choose edPrEP. IR of HCV and syphilis did not differ between regimens, but the IR of chlamydia/gonorrhoea was higher among daily users (adjusted incidence rate ratio = 1.61, 95% CI = 1.35 to 1.94).

CONCLUSIONS

A quarter of participants chose edPrEP at baseline and at 28 months this proportion was similar. Although the IR of HCV and syphilis were similar in the two regimens, the lower incidence of chlamydia and gonorrhoea among edPrEP users may suggest that less frequent STI testing of this group could be considered.

Health economics modeling of antiretroviral interventions amongst HIV serodiscordant couples

Antiretroviral treatment (ART) and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV-serodiscordant couples, effectively reduce mortality, transmission events and influence quality of life at the expense of increased costs. We aimed to evaluate health economics of antiretroviral-based strategies for HIV-serodiscordant couples in the China context. A deterministic model of HIV evolution and transmission within a cohort of serodiscordant couples was parameterized using the real-world database of Zhoukou city and published literature. We evaluated the mid-ART (a historical strategy, initiating ART with CD4 < 500 cells/mm³), early-ART (the current strategy, offering ART regardless of CD4 cell counts) and a hypothetical strategy (early-ART combined short-term daily PrEP) versus the late-ART (the baseline strategy, initiating ART with CD4 < 350 cells/mm³) offered by 2008 national guidelines. We estimated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) and incremental cost-utility ratios (ICUR) from a societal perspective, derived by clinical benefits and HIV-caused life quality respectively, and portrayed their changes over a 0-30 year's timeframe. The model projections indicated that the antiretroviral-based interventions were more likely to obtain clinical benefits but difficult to improve quality of life, and cumulative ICER and ICUR were generally decreasing without achieving cost-saving. Scale-up access to ART for the HIV-positive among serodiscordant couples was easily fallen within the range of paying for incremental life-years and quality adjusted life years by the societal willingness. The hypothetical strategy had the potential to prevent most seroconversion events within marriages but required enormous upfront costs, thus it took a long time to reach established thresholds. The current strategy of early-ART is the most cost-effective. Clarifying the obstacles of high cost of PrEP and improving life quality for HIV-serodiscordant couples have emerged as an urgent requisition.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of a National Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) Program in Ireland

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the cost-effectiveness of introducing a publicly funded pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) program in Ireland.

METHODS

We constructed a state-transition Markov model. This was a cross-sectional population model that tracked all HIV-negative men who have sex with men (MSM) in Ireland over their lifetime. Access to a publicly funded PrEP program (medications + frequent monitoring) in high-risk MSM was compared with no PrEP. The primary outcome measure was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER).

RESULTS

In the base case, introducing a PrEP program was considered cost saving and provided significant health benefits to the population. Univariate sensitivity analysis demonstrated that PrEP efficacy and HIV incidence had the greatest impact on cost-effectiveness. Including an increase in sexually transmitted infections had a negligible impact on the results. Efficacy was a significant driver in the model. PrEP was cost saving at all efficacy values above 60%, and at the lowest reported efficacy in MSM (44% in the iPrEX trial), the ICER was €4711/QALY (highly cost-effective). Event-based dosing (administration during high-risk periods only) was associated with additional cost savings. We estimated that 1705 individuals (95% CI: 617-3452) would join the program in year 1. The incremental budget impact was €1.5m (95% CI: €0.5m to €3m) in the first year and €5.4m over 5 years (95% CI: €1.8m to €11.5m), with 173 cases of HIV averted over 5 years.

CONCLUSION

We found that the introduction of a PrEP program would be considered cost saving in the first cost-effectiveness analysis of its kind in Ireland.

Adherence to event-driven HIV PrEP among men who have sex with men in Amsterdam, the Netherlands: analysis based on online diary data, 3-monthly questionnaires and intracellular TFV-DP

INTRODUCTION

Event-driven pre-exposure prophylaxis (edPrEP) with oral tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF)/emtricitabine (FTC) is highly effective for preventing HIV acquisition in men who have sex with men (MSM) and is preferred over daily PrEP by some MSM. However, it is largely unknown how well MSM adhere to edPrEP. We then aimed to assess PrEP protection during CAS among MSM using edPrEP and participating in the Amsterdam PrEP demonstration project (AMPrEP).

METHODS

We analysed data from participants enrolled in AMPrEP who were taking edPrEP. We measured adherence through (1) a mobile application in which sexual behaviour and PrEP-use were recorded daily, (2) three-monthly self-completed questionnaires and (3) dried blood spot (DBS) samples collected around six, twelve and twenty-four months after PrEP initiation. We assessed the proportion of days with condomless anal sex (CAS) acts that were protected by PrEP, per partner type (i.e. steady partners, known casual partners, unknown casual partners), and the proportion of three-month periods during which PrEP was correctly used. Intracellular TFV-diphosphate (TFV-DP) concentrations were determined from DBS. Good adherence was defined as at least one tablet before and one tablet within 48 hours after a CAS act.

RESULTS

Between 11 September 2015 and 6 October 2019, 182 of 376 MSM (48.4%) used edPrEP for at least one three-month period. Of the 8224 CAS days that were reported in the app during edPrEP-use, we observed good protection for most CAS days involving steady partners (n = 1625/2455, 66.9%), known casual partners (n = 3216/3472, 92.6%) and unknown casual partners (n = 2074/2297, 90.3%). Men reported consistently correct PrEP-use in 851 (81.4%) of the 1046 three-month periods of edPrEP-use. The median TFV-DP concentration was 591 fmol/sample (interquartile range = 270 to 896).

CONCLUSIONS

Adherence to edPrEP was high as determined from the online app and questionnaire. DBS measurements were consistent with two to three tablets per week on average.

Preference for daily versus on-demand pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV and correlates among men who have sex with men: the China Real-world Oral PrEP Demonstration study

INTRODUCTION

This study explores the preference for daily versus on-demand pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) among men who have sex with men (MSM) in developing countries when both regimens are available.

METHODS

From 11 December 2018 to 19 October 2019, we recruited MSM for an open-label real-world PrEP demonstration study in four major cities in China. Subjects selected their preferred PrEP (oral tenofovir/emtricitabine) regimen (daily vs. on-demand) at recruitment and underwent on-site screening before initiation of PrEP. We used logistic regression to assess preference for daily PrEP and correlates.

RESULTS

Of 1933 recruited MSM, the median age was 29 years, 7.6% was currently married to or living with a female; the median number of male sexual partners was four and 6.1% had used post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) in the previous six months. HIV infection risk was subjectively determined as very high (>75%) in 7.0% of subjects, high (50% to 75%) in 13.3%, moderate (25% to 49%) in 31.5% and low or none (0% to 24%) in 48.1%. On average, participants preferred on-demand PrEP over daily PrEP (1104 (57.1%) versus 829 (42.9%)) at recruitment. In multivariable analysis, currently being married to or living with a female was associated with 14.6 percentage points lower preference for daily PrEP (marginal effect = -0.146 [95% CI: -0.230, -0.062], p = 0.001); whereas the number of male sexual partners (marginal effect = 0.003 [95% CI: 0.000, 0.005], p = 0.034) and a subjective assessment of being very high risk of HIV infection (vs. low and no risk, marginal effect size = 0.105 [95% CI: 0.012, 0.198], p = 0.027) were associated with increased preference for daily versus on-demand PrEP. Among the 1933 potential participants, 721 (37.3%) did not attend the subsequent on-site screening. Lower-income, lower education level, lower subjective expected risk of HIV infection risk and younger age positively correlated with the absence of on-site screening.

CONCLUSIONS

MSM in China prefer both daily and on-demand PrEP when both regimens are provided free. Social structural factors and subjective risk of HIV infection have significant impacts on PrEP preference and use. The upcoming national PrEP guideline should consider incorporating both regimens and the correlates to help implement PrEP in China.

Eligibility for HIV Preexposure Prophylaxis, Intention to Use Preexposure Prophylaxis, and Informal Use of Preexposure Prophylaxis Among Men Who Have Sex With Men in Amsterdam, the Netherlands

BACKGROUND

Before 2019, availability of affordable HIV preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) was limited in the Netherlands. Consequently, some men who have sex with men and transgender persons obtained PrEP informally, that is, without a prescription.

METHODS

Between September 2017 and August 2018, we enrolled informal PrEP users in a cohort study (Informal PrEP [InPrEP]) at the Amsterdam Sexually Transmitted Infections (STI) Clinic. We compared PrEP use, PrEP eligibility and intention, chemsex, and STI positivity between 3 groups: (1) informal PrEP users enrolled in InPrEP, (2) nonenrolled informal PrEP users, and (3) non-PrEP users. Also, we assessed intention and associated characteristics among non-PrEP users who were eligible for PrEP.

RESULTS

During the study period, we enrolled 118 informal PrEP users in InPrEP who were compared with 224 nonenrolled informal PrEP users and 4975 non-PrEP users. Preexposure prophylaxis eligibility rates were 83.1%, 93.4%, and 63.0%; chemsex were reported by 39.1%, 48.1%, and 11.7%; and STI positivity was reported by 28.0%, 42.5%, and 20.3%, respectively. Among PrEP-eligible non-PrEP users, PrEP intention was 16.6% and associated with increasing age, non-Dutch origin, higher educational level, receptive condomless anal sex, increasing number of sex partners, chemsex, and sex with men only.

CONCLUSIONS

Most informal PrEP users are eligible to use PrEP and have a clear sexual health care need. Especially in settings with limited PrEP access, providing the necessary care for informal PrEP users is important. The intention to use PrEP is low among PrEP-eligible STI clinic visitors. Further research should investigate modes to increase PrEP intention among PrEP-eligible persons.

Factors Associated with Preferred Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis Dosing Regimen Among Men Who Have Sex with Men in Real-World Settings: A Mixed-Effect Model Analysis

When provided with both choices of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in MSM, men may choose to use either method based on their sexual practice. The study objective was to describe the switches between dosing regimens and identify factors that predict choice of a dosing regimen among MSM. We performed a multi-center, observational, prospective PrEP cohort study conducted at three study sites in Taiwan between January 2018 and March 2019. A total of 215 participants made 469 visits. In half of the visits (49.7%), participants reported using on-demand PrEP. There were 36 regimen switches: 20 from daily to on-demand and 16 from on-demand to daily. Among 28 participants who switched regimens, 22 switched regimens once and 6 switched more than once. The frequency of condomless anal sex and a history of post-exposure prophylaxis use were associated with taking PrEP on-demand (p < 0.05). PrEP adherence intervention should be tailored specifically to sexual behavior to increase adherence to PrEP.

Number, type and cost of microbiological tests during HIV Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis: The experience of a French hospital

BACKGROUND

Microbiological tests are required for individuals on HIV Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP), but their real-life numbers, types and cost are poorly described.

METHODS

Number, type, and results of microbiological tests performed in a Besançon Hospital-associated laboratory, France, from 2016 to 2019, in the setting of PrEP consultations were retrospectively collected. Costs were estimated by the current reimbursement rate set by the French national protection system.

RESULTS

756 consultations for PrEP initiation or follow-up of 135 persons were performed over 4 years. Among 3434 tests performed in the institution-associated laboratory, 1083 and 2351 were virological and bacteriological tests, respectively. Serology was predominant in virology (98% of virological tests), with HIV, HCV, and HBV screening as the 3 more frequent assays, whereas molecular biology was predominant in bacteriology (63.1% of bacteriological tests) with N. gonorrhoeae and C. trachomatis screening as leader assays. Agar-based culture accounted for 1% of bacterial tests. The global cost of microbiological tests was 45,983.20 euros, corresponding to a mean cost of 60.80 euros per consultation. Virological and bacteriological tests accounted for 37.7% and 62.3% of this budget, respectively. No seroconversion was observed for HIV or HCV. N. gonorrhoeae and C. trachomatis were detected at least once in 39.3% and 22.4% of individuals, respectively, with 15% of symptomatic episodes in both cases. Active syphilis infection was detected in 15.4% of individuals.

CONCLUSIONS

Since numerous microbiological tests are required during PrEP, the availability of specific technical platforms should not be neglected by centers wishing to set up PrEP consultations.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of pre-exposure prophylaxis for the prevention of HIV in men who have sex with men in South Korea: a mathematical modelling study

In February 2018, the Ministry of Food and Drug Safety in Korea approved tenofovir disoproxil fumarate and emtricitabine (TDF/FTC) co-formulate for use in pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for the prevention of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. This study aimed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of PrEP in men who have sex with men (MSM), a major risk group emerging in Korea. A dynamic compartmental model was developed for HIV transmission and progression in MSM aged 15-64 years. With a combined model including economic analysis, we estimated averted HIV infections, changes in HIV prevalence, discounted costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). PrEP was evaluated in both the general MSM and high-risk MSM populations and was assumed to reduce infection risk by 80%. Implementing PrEP in all MSM would avert 75.2% HIV infections and facilitate a gain of 37,372 QALYs at a cost of $274,822 per QALY gained over 20 years relative to the status quo. Initiating PrEP in high-risk MSM with an average of eight partners per year (around 20% of MSM) would improve the cost-effectiveness, averting 78.0% HIV infections and add 29,242 QALYs at a cost of $51,597 per QALY gained, which is within the willingness-to-pay threshold for Korea of $56,000/QALY gained. This result was highly sensitive to annual PrEP costs, quality-of-life for people who are on PrEP, and initial HIV prevalence. Initiating PrEP in a larger proportion of MSM in Korea would prevent more HIV infections, but at an increasing cost per QALY gained. Focusing PrEP on higher risk MSM and any reduction in PrEP cost would improve cost-effectiveness.

Cost-effectiveness and budget effect of pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV-1 prevention in Germany from 2018 to 2058

BackgroundPre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is a highly effective HIV prevention strategy for men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM). The high cost of PrEP has until recently been a primary barrier to its use. In 2017, generic PrEP became available, reducing the costs by 90%.AimOur objective was to assess cost-effectiveness and costs of introducing PrEP in Germany.MethodsWe calibrated a deterministic mathematical model to the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic among MSM in Germany. PrEP was targeted to 30% of high-risk MSM. It was assumed that PrEP reduces the risk of HIV infection by 85%. Costs were calculated from a healthcare payer perspective using a 40-year time horizon starting in 2018.ResultsPrEP can avert 21,000 infections (interquartile range (IQR): 16,000-27,000) in the short run (after 2 years scale-up and 10 years full implementation). HIV care is predicted to cost EUR 36.2 billion (IQR: 32.4-40.4 billion) over the coming 40 years. PrEP can increase costs by at most EUR 150 million within the first decade after introduction. Ten years after introduction, PrEP can become cost-saving, accumulating to savings of HIV-related costs of EUR 5.1 billion (IQR: 3.5-6.9 billion) after 40 years. In a sensitivity analysis, PrEP remained cost-saving even at a 70% price reduction of antiretroviral drug treatment and a lower effectiveness of PrEP.ConclusionIntroduction of PrEP in Germany is predicted to result in substantial health benefits because of reductions in HIV infections. Short-term financial investments in providing PrEP will result in substantial cost-savings in the long term.

A review of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) programmes by delivery models in the Asia-Pacific through the healthcare accessibility framework

INTRODUCTION

In the Asia-Pacific, pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is a newly introduced public health intervention for minimizing HIV transmission, the coverage of which has remained limited. The best delivery models and strategies for broadening access of the vulnerable communities are not fully known. This review identified PrEP programmes reported in the Asia-Pacific, which were classified by delivery models and assessed with a healthcare accessibility framework.

METHODS

We performed a literature search on PubMed and Ovid MEDLINE using relevant search terms, manual searched grey literature by visiting relevant websites, examined reference lists and contacted authors for clarification of included PrEP programmes reported through July 2019. A structured table was used for data extraction and summarizing findings in accordance with the five constructs of approachability, acceptability, availability, affordability and appropriateness grounded in the conceptual framework of Healthcare Accessibility.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

This literature search yielded a total of 1308 publications; 119 full texts and abstracts were screened, and 24 publications were included in the review. We identified 11 programmes implemented in seven cities/countries in the Asia-Pacific. A typology of four PrEP delivery models was delineated: (a) fee-based public service model; (b) fee-based community setting model; (c) free public service model; and (d) free community setting model. Overall, the free community setting model was most commonly adopted in the Asia-Pacific, with the strength to boost the capacity of facility and human resources, which enhanced "approachability", "availability" and "acceptability." The free public service model was characterized by components designed in improving "approachability," "availability" and "appropriateness," with attention on equity in accessing PrEP. Among free-based models, long-term affordability both to the government and PrEP users would need to be maximized to increase accessibility. Alongside the need for raising awareness, supportive environments and ensuring timely access were means for enabling the development of a sustainable PrEP service.

CONCLUSION

PrEP programmes could be classified by delivery models through the five constructs of healthcare accessibility. While the coverage of PrEP remains limited in the Asia-Pacific, an evaluation of these models could benchmark best practices, which would in turn allow effective models to be designed.

Preexposure prophylaxis for men who have sex with men in the Netherlands: impact on HIV and Neisseria gonorrhoeae transmission and cost-effectiveness

OBJECTIVES

To assess the impact of a preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) programme for high-risk men who have sex with men (MSM), which includes gonorrhoea testing and treatment, on the transmission of HIV and Neisseria among MSM in the Netherlands and the cost-effectiveness of such programme with and without risk compensation (in the form of reduced condom use).

METHODS

We developed a stochastic agent-based transmission model of HIV and gonorrhoea. We simulated a capped (max 2.5% of MSM) and uncapped (5.5% of MSM in 2018 declining to 3% in 2027) daily PrEP programme for high-risk MSM, with 3-monthly HIV and gonorrhoea testing, with and without risk compensation. Epidemiological outcomes were calculated from the transmission model and used in an economic model to calculate costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALY), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER), over 2018-2027, taking a healthcare payer perspective.

RESULTS

Without risk compensation, PrEP can lead to a reduction of 61 or 49% in the total number of new HIV infections in 2018-2027, if the programme is uncapped or capped to 2.5% of MSM, respectively. With risk compensation, this reduction can be 63 or 46% in the uncapped and capped programmes, respectively. In all scenarios, gonorrhoea prevalence decreased after introducing PrEP. Without risk compensation, 92% of simulations were cost-effective (of which 52% cost-saving). With risk compensation, 73% of simulations were cost-effective (of which 23% was cost-saving).

CONCLUSION

A nationwide PrEP programme for high-risk MSM can result in substantial reductions in HIV and gonorrhoea transmission and be cost-effective, even with risk compensation.

Cost utility analysis of HIV pre exposure prophylaxis among men who have sex with men in Israel

Background

Between 2011 and 2015, Men who have sex with men (MSM) accounted for nearly half of new HIV cases among men in Israel. This study carries out a cost-utility analysis of PrEP (HIV Pre Exposure Prophylaxis), an antiretroviral medication that can protect against the acquisition of HIV infection, whose incidence rate in Israel is around 1.74 per 1000 MSM.

Method

Epidemiological, demographic, health service utilisation and economic data were integrated into a spread-sheet model in order to calculate the cost per averted disability-adjusted life year (DALY) of the intervention from a societal perspective, in mid-2018 US$ using a 3% discount rate. Cost utility analyses were performed for both types of PrEP delivery (continuous regimen and on-demand), together with sensitivity analyses on numbers of condom users who take up PrEP (baseline 25%) and subsequently abandon condom use (baseline 75%), PrEP efficacy (baseline 86%), PrEP prices and monitoring costs.

Results

Around 21.3% of MSM are high risk (as defined by having unprotected anal intercourse). Offering PrEP to this group would have a ten year net cost of around 1563 million USD, preventing 493 persons from becoming HIV-positive, averting around 1616 DALYs at a cost per averted DALY of around 967,744 USD. This will render the intervention to be not cost-effective. PrEP drug prices would have to fall dramatically (by 90.7%) for the intervention to become cost-effective (i.e. having a cost per averted DALY less than thrice GNP per capita) in Israel. PrEP remains not cost-effective (at 475,673 USD per averted DALY) even if intervention costs were reduced by using an “on demand” instead of a daily schedule. Even if there were no changes in condom use, the resultant 411,694 USD cost-utility ratio is still not cost-effective.

Conclusions

Despite PrEPs high effectiveness against HIV, PrEP was found not to be cost-effective in the Israeli context because of a combination of relatively low HIV incidence, high PrEP costs, with a likelyhood that some low-risk MSM (ie: who use condoms) may well begin taking PrEP and as a consequence many of these will abandon condom use. Therefore, ways of minimizing these last two phenomena need to be found.

Achieving 90-90-90 Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Targets Will Not Be Enough to Achieve the HIV Incidence Reduction Target in Australia

Background

We estimated the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) incidence reduction in Australia that would correspond to achieving the United Nations Program on HIV and AIDS (UNAIDS) 90-90-90 targets by 2020 and extended targets of 95-95-95 by 2030. This was done in combination with various scale-ups of HIV testing, primary prevention, and preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) among high-risk men who have sex with men (MSM). These projections were evaluated against the target of achieving a 90% reduction in HIV incidence by 2030 compared with 2010 levels.

Methods

A mathematical model.

Results

Achieving 90-90-90 by 2020 was estimated to reduce incidence by 10% from 2010 levels. Achieving 95-95-95 by 2030 was estimated to reduce incidence by 17% from 2010 levels, with the first "95" being achievable by testing low- and high-risk MSM 2 and 4 times per year, respectively. This was improved to a 34% reduction by including a 5-year scale-up of PrEP to 30% coverage among high-risk MSM and to 45% by also increasing MSM condom use from 42% to 60%. However, even with 95-95-95, 2 and 4 tests per year for low- and high-risk MSM, 100% high-risk MSM PrEP coverage, and 100% MSM condom use, only an 80% reduction in incidence was possible by 2030.

Conclusions

Many countries, particularly those with low HIV prevalence, will struggle to achieve a 90% reduction in HIV incidence by 2030, even if UNAIDS targets are met. Most will require substantially higher levels of prevention coverage and higher testing frequencies to reach this target.

Cost-effectiveness of increased HIV testing among MSM in The Netherlands

OBJECTIVES

To assess the cost-effectiveness of increased consistent HIV testing among MSM in the Netherlands.

METHODS

Among MSM testing at sexually transmitted infection clinics in the Netherlands in 2014-2015, approximately 20% tested consistently every 6 months. We examined four scenarios with increased percentage of MSM testing every 6 months: a small and a moderate increase among all MSM; a small and a moderate increase only among MSM with at least 10 partners in the preceding 6 months. We used an agent-based model to calculate numbers of HIV infections and AIDS cases prevented with increased HIV testing. These numbers were used in an economic model to calculate costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) due to increased testing, over 2018-2027, taking a healthcare payer perspective.

RESULTS

A small increase in the percentage testing every 6 months among all MSM resulted in 490 averted HIV infections and an average ICER of &OV0556;27 900/QALY gained. A moderate increase among all MSM, resulted in 1380 averted HIV infections and an average ICER of &OV0556;36 700/QALY gained. Both were not cost-effective, with a &OV0556;20 000 willingness-to-pay threshold. Increasing the percentage testing every 6 months only among MSM with at least 10 partners in the preceding 6 months resulted in less averted HIV infections than increased testing among all MSM, but was on average cost-saving.

CONCLUSION

Increased HIV testing can prevent considerable numbers of new HIV infections among MSM, but may be cost-effective only if targeted at high-risk individuals, such as those with many partners.