Transmission of COVID-19 in 282 clusters in Catalonia, Spain: a cohort study

From intramuscular to nasal: unleashing the potential of nasal spray vaccines against coronavirus disease 2019

Coronavirus disease 2019, caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has affected 700 million people worldwide since its outbreak in 2019. The current pandemic strains, including Omicron and its large subvariant series, exhibit strong transmission and stealth. After entering the human body, the virus first infects nasal epithelial cells and invades host cells through the angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 receptor and transmembrane serine protease 2 on the host cell surface. The nasal cavity is an important body part that protects against the virus. Immunisation of the nasal mucosa produces immunoglobulin A antibodies that effectively neutralise viruses. Saline nasal irrigation, a type of physical therapy, can reduce the viral load in the nasal cavity and prevent viral infections to some extent. As a commonly used means to fight SARS-CoV-2, the intramuscular (IM) vaccine can induce the human body to produce a systemic immune response and immunoglobulin G antibody; however, the antibody is difficult to distribute to the nasal mucosa in time and cannot achieve a good preventive effect. Intranasal (IN) vaccines compensate for the shortcomings of IM vaccines, induce mucosal immune responses, and have a better effect in preventing infection. In this review, we discuss the nasal defence barrier, the harm caused by SARS-CoV-2, the mechanism of its invasion into host cells, nasal cleaning, IM vaccines and IN vaccines, and suggest increasing the development of IN vaccines, and use of IN vaccines as a supplement to IM vaccines.

Carbon nanoparticle-based lateral flow assay for the detection of specific double-tagged DNA amplicons of Paracoccidioides spp

To overcome the limitations of current methods for diagnosing paracoccidioidomycosis (PCM), it is critical to develop novel diagnostic strategies that can be implemented in low-resource settings and dramatically improve turnaround times. This study focused on the development of a portable molecular test to screen for Paracoccidioides spp. The proposed approach integrated double-tagging polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and a paper-based lateral flow assay (LFA) for readout, using carbon nanoparticles as a signal generation system. Primers tagged with biotin and digoxigenin were employed to conduct the double-tagging PCR, which can be conveniently carried out on portable thermocyclers. This method can generate billions of tagged DNA copies from a single target molecule, which can be rapidly detected by the LFA platform, providing results within minutes. Avidin-modified carbon nanoparticles served as a signal generation system, enabling detection in the immunochromatographic assay. The LFA demonstrated the capability to detect double-tagged amplicons as low as 0.21 ng or 0.10 ng, depending on whether the results were assessed visually or with a smartphone equipped with an image processor. These findings suggest that the proposed approach holds great promise as a point-of-care diagnostic tool for the early and accurate detection of PCM in low-resource settings. The diagnostic test is rapid and inexpensive, requires minimal handling and can be easily introduced into the general practitioner's armoury for ambulatory screening of infection. This innovative approach has the potential to make a substantial contribution to PCM diagnosis, ultimately reducing morbidity and mortality associated with this disease.

Concordance between SARS-CoV-2 index individuals and their household contacts on index individual COVID-19 transmission cofactors: a comparison of self-reported and contact-reported information

BACKGROUND

Following the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, several clinical trials have evaluated postexposure prophylaxis (PEP) among close contacts of an index individual with a confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. Because index individuals do not directly inform the efficacy of prevention interventions, they are seldom enrolled in COVID-19 PEP studies. However, adjusting for prognostic covariates such as an index individual's COVID-19 illness and risk behaviors can increase precision in PEP efficacy estimates, so approaches to accurately collecting this information about the index individual are needed. This analysis aimed to assess whether surveying household contacts captures the same information as surveying the index individual directly.

METHODS

REGN 2069/CoVPN 3502, a randomized controlled trial of COVID-19 PEP, enrolled household contacts of SARS-CoV-2 index individuals. CoVPN 3502-01 retrospectively enrolled and surveyed the index individuals. We compared responses to seven similar questions about the index individuals' transmission cofactors that were asked in both studies. We estimated the percent concordance between index individuals and their household contacts on each question, with 50% concordance considered equivalent to random chance.

RESULTS

Concordance between index individuals and contacts was high on the most objective questions, approximately 97% (95% CI: 90-99%) for index individual age group and 96% (88-98%) for hospitalization. Concordance was moderate for symptoms, approximately 85% (75-91%). Concordance on questions related to the index individual's behavior was only slightly better or no better than random: approximately 62% (51-72%) for whether they received COVID-19 treatment, 68% (57-77%) for sharing a bedroom, 70% (59-79%) for sharing a common room, and 49% (39-60%) for mask wearing at home. However, while contacts were surveyed within 96 h of the index individual testing positive for SARS-CoV-2, the median time to enrollment in CoVPN 3502-01 was 240 days, which may have caused recall bias in our results.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest a need to survey index individuals directly in order to accurately capture their transmission cofactors, rather than relying on their household contacts to report on their behavior. The lag in enrolling participants into CoVPN 3502-01 also highlights the importance of timely enrollment to minimize recall bias.

Is It Possible to Test for Viral Infectiousness?: The Use Case of (SARS-CoV-2)

Identifying and managing individuals with active or chronic disease, implementing appropriate infection control measures, and mitigating the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the need for tests of infectiousness. The gold standard for assessing infectiousness has been the recovery of infectious virus in cell culture. Using cycle threshold values, antigen testing, and SARS-CoV-2, replication intermediate strands were used to assess infectiousness, with many limitations. Infectiousness can be influenced by host factors (eg, preexisting immune responses) and virus factors (eg, evolution).

In Support of Universal Admission Testing for SARS-CoV-2 During Significant Community Transmission

Many hospitals have stopped or are considering stopping universal admission testing for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). We discuss reasons why admission testing should still be part of a layered system to prevent hospital-acquired SARS-CoV-2 infections during times of significant community transmission. These include the morbidity of SARS-CoV-2 in vulnerable patients, the predominant contribution of presymptomatic and asymptomatic people to transmission, the high rate of transmission between patients in shared rooms, and data suggesting surveillance testing is associated with fewer nosocomial infections. Preferences of diverse patient populations, particularly the hardest-hit communities, should be surveyed and used to inform prevention measures. Hospitals' ethical responsibility to protect patients from serious infections should predominate over concerns about costs, labor, and inconvenience. We call for more rigorous data on the incidence and morbidity of nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 infections and more research to help determine when to start, stop, and restart universal admission testing and other prevention measures.

Pediatric and Young Adult Household Transmission of the Initial Waves of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States: Administrative Claims Study

BACKGROUND

The correlates responsible for the temporal changes of intrahousehold SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the United States have been understudied mainly due to a lack of available surveillance data. Specifically, early analyses of SARS-CoV-2 household secondary attack rates (SARs) were small in sample size and conducted cross-sectionally at single time points. From these limited data, it has been difficult to assess the role that different risk factors have had on intrahousehold disease transmission in different stages of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, particularly in children and youth.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to estimate the transmission dynamic and infectivity of SARS-CoV-2 among pediatric and young adult index cases (age 0 to 25 years) in the United States through the initial waves of the pandemic.

METHODS

Using administrative claims, we analyzed 19 million SARS-CoV-2 test records between January 2020 and February 2021. We identified 36,241 households with pediatric index cases and calculated household SARs utilizing complete case information. Using a retrospective cohort design, we estimated the household SARS-CoV-2 transmission between 4 index age groups (0 to 4 years, 5 to 11 years, 12 to 17 years, and 18 to 25 years) while adjusting for sex, family size, quarter of first SARS-CoV-2 positive record, and residential regions of the index cases.

RESULTS

After filtering all household records for greater than one member in a household and missing information, only 36,241 (0.85%) of 4,270,130 households with a pediatric case remained in the analysis. Index cases aged between 0 and 17 years were a minority of the total index cases (n=11,484, 11%). The overall SAR of SARS-CoV-2 was 23.04% (95% CI 21.88-24.19). As a comparison, the SAR for all ages (0 to 65+ years) was 32.4% (95% CI 32.1-32.8), higher than the SAR for the population between 0 and 25 years of age. The highest SAR of 38.3% was observed in April 2020 (95% CI 31.6-45), while the lowest SAR of 15.6% was observed in September 2020 (95% CI 13.9-17.3). It consistently decreased from 32% to 21.1% as the age of index groups increased. In a multiple logistic regression analysis, we found that the youngest pediatric age group (0 to 4 years) had 1.69 times (95% CI 1.42-2.00) the odds of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to any family members when compared with the oldest group (18 to 25 years). Family size was significantly associated with household viral transmission (odds ratio 2.66, 95% CI 2.58-2.74).

CONCLUSIONS

Using retrospective claims data, the pediatric index transmission of SARS-CoV-2 during the initial waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States was associated with location and family characteristics. Pediatric SAR (0 to 25 years) was less than the SAR for all age other groups. Less than 1% (n=36,241) of all household data were retained in the retrospective study for complete case analysis, perhaps biasing our findings. We have provided measures of baseline household pediatric transmission for tracking and comparing the infectivity of later SARS-CoV-2 variants.

Intrinsic factors behind long COVID: III. Persistence of SARS-CoV-2 and its components

Considerable research has been done in investigating SARS-CoV-2 infection, its characteristics, and host immune response. However, debate is still ongoing over the emergence of post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC). A multitude of long-lasting symptoms have been reported several weeks after the primary acute SARS-CoV-2 infection that resemble several other viral infections. Thousands of research articles have described various post-COVID-19 conditions. Yet, the evidence around these ongoing health problems, the reasons behind them, and their molecular underpinnings are scarce. These persistent symptoms are also known as long COVID-19. The persistence of SARS-CoV-2 and/or its components in host tissues can lead to long COVID. For example, the presence of viral nucleocapsid protein and RNA was detected in the skin, appendix, and breast tissues of some long COVID patients. The persistence of viral RNA was reported in multiple anatomic sites, including non-respiratory tissues such as the adrenal gland, ocular tissue, small intestine, lymph nodes, myocardium, and sciatic nerve. Distinctive viral spike sequence variants were also found in non-respiratory tissues. Interestingly, prolonged detection of viral subgenomic RNA was observed across all tissues, sometimes in multiple tissues of the same patient, which likely reflects recent but defective viral replication. Moreover, the persistence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA was noticed throughout the brain at autopsy, as late as 230 days following symptom onset among unvaccinated patients who died of severe infection. Here, we review the persistence of SARS-CoV-2 and its components as an intrinsic factor behind long COVID. We also highlight the immunological consequences of this viral persistence.

Infectious virus shedding duration reflects secretory IgA antibody response latency after SARS-CoV-2 infection

Infectious virus shedding from individuals infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is used to estimate human-to-human transmission risk. Control of SARS-CoV-2 transmission requires identifying the immune correlates that protect infectious virus shedding. Mucosal immunity prevents infection by SARS-CoV-2, which replicates in the respiratory epithelium and spreads rapidly to other hosts. However, whether mucosal immunity prevents the shedding of the infectious virus in SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals is unknown. We examined the relationship between viral RNA shedding dynamics, duration of infectious virus shedding, and mucosal antibody responses during SARS-CoV-2 infection. Anti-spike secretory IgA antibodies (S-IgA) reduced viral RNA load and infectivity more than anti-spike IgG/IgA antibodies in infected nasopharyngeal samples. Compared with the IgG/IgA response, the anti-spike S-IgA post-infection responses affected the viral RNA shedding dynamics and predicted the duration of infectious virus shedding regardless of the immune history. These findings highlight the importance of anti-spike S-IgA responses in individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 for preventing infectious virus shedding and SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Developing medical countermeasures to shorten S-IgA response time may help control human-to-human transmission of SARS-CoV-2 infection and prevent future respiratory virus pandemics.

Relationship of close contact settings with transmission and infection during the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2 epidemic in Shanghai

INTRODUCTION

We analysed case-contact clusters during the Omicron BA.2 epidemic in Shanghai to assess the risk of infection of contacts in different settings and to evaluate the effect of demographic factors on the association of infectivity and susceptibility to the Omicron variant.

METHODS

Data on the settings and frequency of contact, demographic characteristics and comorbidities of index cases, contacts and secondary cases were analysed. Independent effect of multiple variables on the risk for transmission and infection was evaluated using generalised estimating equations.

RESULTS

From 1 March to 1 June 2022, we identified 450 770 close contacts of 90 885 index cases. The risk for infection was greater for contacts in farmers' markets (fixed locations where farmers gather to sell products, adjusted OR (aOR): 3.62; 95% CI 2.87 to 4.55) and households (aOR: 2.68; 95% CI 2.15 to 3.35). Children (0-4 years) and elderly adults (60 years and above) had higher risk for infection and transmission. During the course of the epidemic, the risk for infection and transmission in different age groups initially increased, and then decreased on about 21 April (17th day of citywide home quarantine). Compared with medical workers (reference, aOR: 1.00), unemployed contacts (aOR: 1.77; 95% CI 1.53 to 2.04) and preschoolers (aOR: 1.61; 95% CI 1.26 to 2.05) had the highest risk for infection; delivery workers (aOR: 1.90, 95% CI 1.51 to 2.40) and public service workers (aOR: 1.85; 95% CI 1.64 to 2.10) had the highest risk for transmission. Contacts who had comorbidities (aOR: 1.10; 95% CI 1.09 to 1.12) had a higher risk for infection, particularly those with lung diseases or immune deficiency.

CONCLUSION

Farmers' markets and households were the main setting for transmission of Omicron. Children, the elderly, delivery workers and public service workers had the highest risk for transmission and infection. These findings should be considered when implementing targeted interventions.

Rural populations facilitated early SARS-CoV-2 evolution and transmission in Missouri, USA

In the United States, rural populations comprise 60 million individuals and suffered from high COVID-19 disease burdens. Despite this, surveillance efforts are biased toward urban centers. Consequently, how rurally circulating SARS-CoV-2 viruses contribute toward emerging variants remains poorly understood. In this study, we aim to investigate the role of rural communities in the evolution and transmission of SARS-CoV-2 during the early pandemic. We collected 544 urban and 435 rural COVID-19-positive respiratory specimens from an overall vaccine-naïve population in Southwest Missouri between July and December 2020. Genomic analyses revealed 53 SARS-CoV-2 Pango lineages in our study samples, with 14 of these lineages identified only in rural samples. Phylodynamic analyses showed that frequent bi-directional diffusions occurred between rural and urban communities in Southwest Missouri, and that four out of seven Missouri rural-origin lineages spread globally. Further analyses revealed that the nucleocapsid protein (N):R203K/G204R paired substitutions, which were detected disproportionately across multiple Pango lineages, were more associated with urban than rural sequences. Positive selection was detected at N:204 among rural samples but was not evident in urban samples, suggesting that viruses may encounter distinct selection pressures in rural versus urban communities. This study demonstrates that rural communities may be a crucial source of SARS-CoV-2 evolution and transmission, highlighting the need to expand surveillance and resources to rural populations for COVID-19 mitigation.

Isolation may select for earlier and higher peak viral load but shorter duration in SARS-CoV-2 evolution

During the COVID-19 pandemic, human behavior change as a result of nonpharmaceutical interventions such as isolation may have induced directional selection for viral evolution. By combining previously published empirical clinical data analysis and multi-level mathematical modeling, we find that the SARS-CoV-2 variants selected for as the virus evolved from the pre-Alpha to the Delta variant had earlier and higher peak in viral load dynamics but a shorter duration of infection. Selection for increased transmissibility shapes the viral load dynamics, and the isolation measure is likely to be a driver of these evolutionary transitions. In addition, we show that a decreased incubation period and an increased proportion of asymptomatic infection are also positively selected for as SARS-CoV-2 mutated to adapt to human behavior (i.e., Omicron variants). The quantitative information and predictions we present here can guide future responses in the potential arms race between pandemic interventions and viral evolution.

Correlation between specific antibody response to wild-type BNT162b2 booster and the risk of breakthrough infection with omicron variants: Impact of household exposure in hospital healthcare workers

BACKGROUND

The emergence of omicron variants exhibiting antigenic changes has led to an increase in breakthrough infection among individuals with a wild-type SARS-CoV-2 vaccine booster. The correlation between post-booster spike-specific antibodies and omicron infection risk remains unclear.

METHODS

This prospective cohort study included SARS-CoV-2-naive healthcare workers with three-dose BNT162b2. Post-booster spike-specific IgG and interferon-γ levels were measured. Breakthrough infection was documented during a 10-month omicron-predominant period. Household and healthcare contacts were followed to identify subsequent infections. The IgG titers were additionally measured at the end of follow-up, and the titers at exposure were estimated from the two-point titers.

RESULTS

Of 333 participants, 89 developed infection, of whom 37 (41.6 %) were household contacts. Kaplan-Meier curves indicated that higher IgG titers were significantly correlated with lower cumulative infection incidence (p = 0.029), whereas the interferon-γ levels were not (p = 0.926). Multivariate Cox analysis showed that increasing IgG titers were associated with a reduced hazard ratio (HR) of 0.26 (95% CI, 0.12-0.55). Household exposure posed a greater infection risk than healthcare exposure (HRs, 11.24 [6.88-18.40] vs. 2.82 [1.37-5.44]). The difference in geometric mean IgG titers of infected and uninfected participants was significant among household contacts (20,244 AU/mL vs. 13,842 AU/mL, p = 0.031). Estimation of IgG titers at exposure showed a significantly higher infection incidence in those exposed with titers of <3,000 AU/mL than in those with higher titers (79.2 % vs. 32.3 %, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Spike-specific antibodies induced by a wild-type SARS-CoV-2 vaccine booster are suggested to be effective in protecting against omicron infection. Household exposure would be a significant source of infection for hospital healthcare workers.

Determining the impact of vaccination on SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR cycle threshold values and infectious viral titres

Background

As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, efforts to better understand severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) viral shedding and transmission in both unvaccinated and vaccinated populations remain critical to informing public health policies and vaccine development. The utility of using real time RT-PCR cycle threshold values (CT values) as a proxy for infectious viral litres from individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 is yet to be fully understood. This retrospective observational cohort study compares quantitative infectious viral litres derived from a focus-forming viral titre assay with SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR CT values in both unvaccinated and vaccinated individuals infected with the Delta strain.

Methods

Nasopharyngeal swabs positive for SARS-CoV-2 by RT-PCR with a CT value <27 collected from 26 June to 17 October 2021 at the University of Vermont Medical Center Clinical Laboratory for which vaccination records were available were included. Partially vaccinated and individuals <18 years of age were excluded. Infectious viral litres were determined using a micro-focus forming assay under BSL-3 containment.

Results

In total, 119 specimens from 22 unvaccinated and 97 vaccinated individuals met all inclusion criteria and had sufficient residual volume to undergo viral titring. A negative correlation between RT-PCR CT values and viral litres was observed in both unvaccinated and vaccinated groups. No difference in mean CT value or viral titre was detected between vaccinated and unvaccinated groups. Viral litres did not change as a function of time since vaccination.

Conclusions

Our results add to the growing body of knowledge regarding the correlation of SARS-CoV-2 RNA levels and levels of infectious virus. At similar CT values, vaccination does not appear to impact an individual's potential infectivity when infected with the Delta variant.

Infection- or AZD1222 vaccine-mediated immunity reduces SARS-CoV-2 transmission but increases Omicron competitiveness in hamsters

Limited data is available on the effect of vaccination and previous virus exposure on the nature of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and immune-pressure on variants. To understand the impact of pre-existing immunity on SARS-CoV-2 airborne transmission efficiency, we perform a transmission chain experiment using naïve, intranasally or intramuscularly AZD1222 vaccinated, and previously infected hamsters. A clear gradient in transmission efficacy is observed: Transmission in hamsters vaccinated via the intramuscular route was reduced over three airborne chains (approx. 60%) compared to naïve animals, whereas transmission in previously infected hamsters and those vaccinated via the intranasal route was reduced by 80%. We also find that the Delta B.1.617.2 variant outcompeted Omicron B.1.1.529 after dual infection within and between hosts in naïve, vaccinated, and previously infected transmission chains, yet an increase in Omicron B.1.1.529 competitiveness is observed in groups with pre-existing immunity against Delta B.1.617.2. This correlates with an increase in the strength of the humoral response against Delta B.1.617.2, with the strongest response seen in previously infected animals. These data highlight the continuous need to improve vaccination strategies and address the additional evolutionary pressure pre-existing immunity may exert on SARS-CoV-2.

Rapid antigen tests for SARS-CoV-2-a synopsis of the medical evidence

SARS-CoV-2, the causative agent of the COVID-19 pandemic, continues to influence health, economy, and stability worldwide. Diagnostic testing for SARS-CoV-2 is important to contain the COVID-19 pandemic. With the commercial availability of certified antigen (Ag) rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs), which can be used to identify an infection with SARS-CoV-2 an easy-to-use tool was introduced. Self-tests can offer advantages to complement professionally administered rapid antigen detection or nucleic acid amplification testing (NAAT). Compared to real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), Ag-RDTs are cost inexpensive, do not need specialized laboratory equipment, facilitating high-throughput testing. However, Ag-RDT sensitivities are strongly dependent on the viral load within the specimen, which has limited their application in clinical settings so far. The methodical limitations of Ag-RDTs may produce false negative test results, particularly when specimens with low viral loads are examined. This may facilitate viral transmissions if protective measurements are lifted mistakenly.

Super-spreading social events for COVID-19 transmission: evidence from the investigation of six early clusters in Bahrain

Introduction

This study aimed to characterize six early clusters of COVID-19 and derive key transmission parameters from confirmed cases that were traced between April and June 2020 in Bahrain.

Methods

Pairs of "infector-infectee" allowed us to map the clusters and estimate the incubation period serial interval as the secondary attack rate. The chi-squared test, with a p-value computed using the Monte Carlo test, measured associations between categorical variables. Statistical analysis was performed using R software and the "data.tree, tidyverse" libraries.

Results

From 9 April to 27 June 2020, we investigated 596 individuals suspected of COVID-19, of whom 127 positive cases were confirmed by PCR and linked in six clusters. The mean age was 30.34 years (S.D. = 17.84 years). The male-to-female ratio was 0.87 (276/318), and most of the contacts were of Bahraini citizenship (511/591 = 86.5%). Exposure occurred within the family in 74.3% (411/553), and 18.9% of clusters' cases were symptomatic (23/122 = 18.9%). Mapped clusters and generations increased after 24 May 2020, corresponding to "Aid El-Fitr." The mean incubation period was 4 days, and the mean serial interval ranged from 3 to 3.31 days. The secondary attack rate was 0.21 (95% C.I.) = [0.17-0.24].

Conclusion

COVID-19 transmission was amplified due to the high number of families mixing during "Aid El Fitr" and "Ramadhan," generating important clusters. Estimated serial intervals and incubation periods support asymptomatic transmission.

The binding profile of SARS-CoV-2 with human leukocyte antigen polymorphisms reveals critical alleles involved in immune evasion

The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), astonished the world and led to millions of deaths. Due to viral new mutations and immune evasion, SARS-CoV-2 ranked first in transmission and influence. The binding affinity of human leukocyte antigen (HLA) polymorphisms to SARS-CoV-2 might be related to immune escape, but the mechanisms remained unclear. In this study, we obtained the binding affinity of SARS-CoV-2 strains with different HLA proteins and identified 31 risk alleles. Subsequent structural predictions identified 10 active binding sites in these HLA proteins that may promote immune evasion. Particularly, we also found that the weak binding ability with HLA class I polymorphisms could contribute to the immune evasion of Omicron. These findings suggest important implications for preventing the immune evasion of SARS-CoV-2 and providing new insights for the vaccine design.

SARS-CoV-2 transmission modes: Why and how contamination occurs around shared meals and drinks?

In spite of prevention measures enacted all over the world to control the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak, including mask wearing, social distancing, hand hygiene, vaccination, and other precautions, the SARS-CoV-2 virus continues to spread globally at an unabated rate of about 1 million cases per day. The specificities of superspreading events as well as evidence of human-to-human, human-to-animal and animal-to-human transmission, indoors or outdoors, raise questions about a possibly neglected viral transmission route. In addition to inhaled aerosols, which are already recognized as key contributors to transmission, the oral route represents a strong candidate, in particular when meals and drinks are shared. In this review, we intend to discuss that significant quantities of virus dispersed by large droplets during discussions at festive gatherings could explain group contamination either directly or indirectly after deposition on surfaces, food, drinks, cutlery, and several other soiled vectors. We suggest that hand hygiene and sanitary practices around objects brought to the mouth and food also need to be taken into account in order to curb transmission.

COVID-19 in immunocompromised children: comparison of SARS-CoV-2 viral load dynamics between the first and third waves

SARS-CoV-2 dynamics across different COVID-19 waves has been unclear in immunocompromised children. We aimed to compare the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 RNA viral load (VL) during the first and third waves of COVID-19 in immunocompromised children. A retrospective and longitudinal cohort study was conducted in a pediatric referral hospital of Argentina. The study included 28 admitted immunocompromised children with laboratory confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. Thirteen acquired the infection during COVID-19 first wave (May to August 2020, group 1 (G1)) and fifteen in the third wave (January to March 2022, group 2 (G2)). RNA viral load measure and its dynamic reconstruction were performed in nasopharyngeal swabs by validated quantitative, real time RT-PCR, and linear mixed-effects model, respectively. Of the 28 children included, 54% were girls, most of them had hemato-oncological pathology (57%), and the median age was 8 years (interquartile range (IQR): 3-13). The dynamic of VL was similar in both groups (P = 0.148), starting from a level of 5.34 log10 copies/mL (95% confidence interval (CI): 4.47-6.21) in G1 and 5.79 log10 copies/mL (95% CI: 4.93-6.65) in G2. Then, VL decayed with a rate of 0.059 (95% CI: 0.038-0.080) and 0.088 (95% CI: 0.058-0.118) log10 copies/mL per day since diagnosis and fell below the limit of quantification at days 51 and 39 after diagnosis in G1 and G2, respectively. Our results evidenced a longer viral RNA persistence in immunocompromised pediatric patients and no difference in VL dynamic between COVID-19 first wave-attributed to ancestral infections-and third wave-attributed to Omicron infections.

Excellent Characteristics of Environmentally Friendly 3D-Printed Nasopharyngeal Swabs for Medical Sample Collection

3D-printed nasopharyngeal swabs for medical sample collection have been manufactured via additive manufacturing (AM), evaluated, and characterized in the present study. A multi-part component of nasopharyngeal swabs was proposed, in which the swab and handle were manufactured separately to reach sustainable production and environmentally friendly products. The swab was investigated using tensile, flexural, surface roughness, dimensional accuracy, and sample collection testing. The influence of printing parameters and post-curing time treatment on the mechanical properties, surface roughness, and dimensional accuracy of 3D-printed nasopharyngeal swabs were also evaluated. The result showed that 3D-printed nasopharyngeal swab shows outstanding tensile strength compared to the commercial flock nasopharyngeal swab. Moreover, the swab neck flexibility test showed that both PLA and dental non-castable 3D-printed nasopharyngeal swabs were able to bend 180°. Subsequently, the surface roughness of 3D-printed nasopharyngeal swab was identic with the commercial flock nasopharyngeal swab. The proposed 3D-printed nasopharyngeal swab design could carry an artificial mucus sample of 141.6 mg at a viscosity of 9455.4 mPa.s. The cost to fabricate a 3D-printed nasopharyngeal swab was estimated at USD0.01-0.02 per swab. 3D-printed nasopharyngeal swab shows potential as a feasible option, greener, less medical waste, and more sustainable.

Revisiting the rationale of mandatory masking

In this perspective, we review the evidence for the efficacy of face masks to reduce the transmission of respiratory viruses, specifically severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), and consider the value of mandating universal mask wearing against the widespread negative impacts that have been associated with such measures. Before the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, it was considered that there was little to no benefit in healthy people wearing masks as prophylaxis against becoming infected or as unwitting vectors of viral transmission. This accepted policy was hastily reversed early on in the pandemic, when districts and countries throughout the world imposed stringent masking mandates. Now, more than three years since the start of the pandemic, the amassed studies that have investigated the use of masks to reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2 (or other pathogens) have led to conclusions that are largely inconsistent and contradictory. There is no statistically significant or unambiguous scientific evidence to justify mandatory masking for general, healthy populations with the intention of lessening the viral spread. Even if mask wearing could potentially reduce the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in individual cases, this needs to be balanced against the physical, psychological and social harms associated with forced mask wearing, not to mention the negative impact of innumerable disposed masks entering our fragile environment. Given the lack of unequivocal scientific proof that masks have any effect on reducing transmission, together with the evident harms to people and the environment through the use of masks, it is our opinion that the mandatory use of face masks in the general population is unjustifiable and must be abandoned in future pandemic countermeasures policies.

Viral emissions into the air and environment after SARS-CoV-2 human challenge: a phase 1, open label, first-in-human study

BACKGROUND

Effectively implementing strategies to curb SARS-CoV-2 transmission requires understanding who is contagious and when. Although viral load on upper respiratory swabs has commonly been used to infer contagiousness, measuring viral emissions might be more accurate to indicate the chance of onward transmission and identify likely routes. We aimed to correlate viral emissions, viral load in the upper respiratory tract, and symptoms, longitudinally, in participants who were experimentally infected with SARS-CoV-2.

METHODS

In this phase 1, open label, first-in-human SARS-CoV-2 experimental infection study at quarantine unit at the Royal Free London NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK, healthy adults aged 18-30 years who were unvaccinated for SARS-CoV-2, not previously known to have been infected with SARS-CoV-2, and seronegative at screening were recruited. Participants were inoculated with 10 50% tissue culture infectious dose of pre-alpha wild-type SARS-CoV-2 (Asp614Gly) by intranasal drops and remained in individual negative pressure rooms for a minimum of 14 days. Nose and throat swabs were collected daily. Emissions were collected daily from the air (using a Coriolis μ air sampler and directly into facemasks) and the surrounding environment (via surface and hand swabs). All samples were collected by researchers, and tested by using PCR, plaque assay, or lateral flow antigen test. Symptom scores were collected using self-reported symptom diaries three times daily. The study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04865237.

FINDINGS

Between March 6 and July 8, 2021, 36 participants (ten female and 26 male) were recruited and 18 (53%) of 34 participants became infected, resulting in protracted high viral loads in the nose and throat following a short incubation period, with mild-to-moderate symptoms. Two participants were excluded from the per-protocol analysis owing to seroconversion between screening and inoculation, identified post hoc. Viral RNA was detected in 63 (25%) of 252 Coriolis air samples from 16 participants, 109 (43%) of 252 mask samples from 17 participants, 67 (27%) of 252 hand swabs from 16 participants, and 371 (29%) of 1260 surface swabs from 18 participants. Viable SARS-CoV-2 was collected from breath captured in 16 masks and from 13 surfaces, including four small frequently touched surfaces and nine larger surfaces where airborne virus could deposit. Viral emissions correlated more strongly with viral load in nasal swabs than throat swabs. Two individuals emitted 86% of airborne virus, and the majority of airborne virus collected was released on 3 days. Individuals who reported the highest total symptom scores were not those who emitted most virus. Very few emissions occurred before the first reported symptom (7%) and hardly any before the first positive lateral flow antigen test (2%).

INTERPRETATION

After controlled experimental inoculation, the timing, extent, and routes of viral emissions was heterogeneous. We observed that a minority of participants were high airborne virus emitters, giving support to the notion of superspreading individuals or events. Our data implicates the nose as the most important source of emissions. Frequent self-testing coupled with isolation upon awareness of first symptoms could reduce onward transmissions.

FUNDING

UK Vaccine Taskforce of the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy of Her Majesty's Government.

Visualized Lateral Flow Assay for Dual Viral RNA Fragment Detection

In this technical note, we report an easy-to-produce, reverse-transcription-free, and protein-enzyme-free lateral flow assay for detection of viral RNA fragments by taking SARS-CoV-2 ORF1ab and N as target models. Catalytic hairpin assembly is utilized for dual RNA fragment orthogonal reaction to generate copious amounts of opened hairpin duplexes, which bridge DNA-modified gold nanoparticles and capture strands on the strip to induce coloration. The dual RNA fragments are simultaneously visualized during one time of sample flow, and single-base-mismatched nontarget sequences can be differentiated. The test strip can be flexibly adapted to detect evolutional SARS-CoV-2 variants such as Delta and Omicron. It also shows potential in visually detecting long-sequence virus simulants and achieves a sensitivity comparable to that of RT-qPCR by incorporation with upstream sample amplification. The lateral flow assay should offer a convenient and reliable technique for viral nucleic acid detection.

The dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 infection in unvaccinated and vaccinated populations in Mumbai, India, between 28 December 2020 and 30 August 2021

The emergence and evolution of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants that could compromise vaccine efficacy (VE) with re-infections in immunized individuals have necessitated continuous surveillance of VE. Here, the occurrence and dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the context of vaccination during the second wave of infection in Mumbai were evaluated. RT-PCR cycle threshold (Ct) values of the open reading frame (ORF)/envelope (E)/nucleocapsid (N) genes obtained from a total of 42415 samples, comprising unvaccinated (96.88%) and vaccinated cases (3.12%) were analyzed between December 28, 2020, and August 30, 2021. A lower incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in fully vaccinated cases (5.07%) compared to partially vaccinated cases (6.5%) and unvaccinated cases (13.453%) was recorded. VE was significant after the first dose of vaccination (ORF gene p-value = 0.003429, and E/N gene p-value = 0.000866). Furthermore, VE was observed to be significant when the post-immunization (first dose) period was stratified to within 30 days (ORF gene p-value = 0.0094 and E/N gene p-value = 0.0023) and to 60 days following the second dose of vaccination (ORF gene p-value = 0.0238). Also, significantly higher efficacy was observed within individuals receiving two doses compared to a single dose (ORF gene p-value = 0.0132 and E/N gene p-value = 0.0387). The emergence of breakthrough infections was also evident (odds ratio= 0.34; 95% confidence interval= 0.27-0.43). Interestingly, viral loads trended towards being higher in some groups of partially vaccinated individuals compared to completely vaccinated and unvaccinated populations. Finally, our results delineated a significantly higher incidence of SARS-CoV-2 acquisition in males, asymptomatic individuals, individuals with comorbidities, and those who were unvaccinated.

Bovine Serum Albumin-Protected Gold Nanoclusters for Sensing of SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies and Virus

An approach to assess severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection (and past infection) was developed. For virus detection, the SARS-CoV-2 virus nucleocapsid protein (NP) was targeted. To detect the NP, antibodies were immobilized on magnetic beads to capture the NPs, which were subsequently detected using rabbit anti-SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid antibodies and alkaline phosphatase (AP)-conjugated anti-rabbit antibodies. A similar approach was used to assess SARS-CoV-2-neutralizing antibody levels by capturing spike receptor-binding domain (RBD)-specific antibodies utilizing RBD protein-modified magnetic beads and detecting them using AP-conjugated anti-human IgG antibodies. The sensing mechanism for both assays is based on cysteamine etching-induced fluorescence quenching of bovine serum albumin-protected gold nanoclusters where cysteamine is generated in proportion to the amount of either SARS-CoV-2 virus or anti-SARS-CoV-2 receptor-binding domain-specific immunoglobulin antibodies (anti-RBD IgG antibodies). High sensitivity can be achieved in 5 h 15 min for the anti-RBD IgG antibody detection and 6 h 15 min for virus detection, although the assay can be run in "rapid" mode, which takes 1 h 45 min for the anti-RBD IgG antibody detection and 3 h 15 min for the virus. By spiking the anti-RBD IgG antibodies and virus in serum and saliva, we demonstrate that the assay can detect the anti-RBD IgG antibodies with a limit of detection (LOD) of 4.0 and 2.0 ng/mL in serum and saliva, respectively. For the virus, we can achieve an LOD of 8.5 × 10⁵ RNA copies/mL and 8.8 × 10⁵ RNA copies/mL in serum and saliva, respectively. Interestingly, this assay can be easily modified to detect myriad analytes of interest.

Association Between Cycle Threshold Value and Vaccination Status Among Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Omicron Variant Cases in Ontario, Canada, in December 2021

Background

Increased immune evasion by emerging severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants and occurrence of breakthrough infections raise questions about whether coronavirus disease 2019 vaccination status affects SARS-CoV-2 viral load among those infected. This study examined the relationship between cycle threshold (Ct) value, which is inversely associated with viral load, and vaccination status at the onset of the Omicron wave onset in Ontario, Canada.

Methods

Using linked provincial databases, we compared median Ct values across vaccination status among polymerase chain reaction-confirmed Omicron variant SARS-CoV-2 cases (sublineages B.1.1.529, BA.1, and BA.1.1) between 6 and 30 December 2021. Cases were presumed to be Omicron based on S-gene target failure. We estimated the relationship between vaccination status and Ct values using multiple linear regression, adjusting for age group, sex, and symptom status.

Results

Of the 27 029 presumed Omicron cases in Ontario, the majority were in individuals who had received a complete vaccine series (87.7%), followed by unvaccinated individuals (8.1%), and those who had received a booster dose (4.2%). The median Ct value for post-booster dose individuals (18.3 [interquartile range, 15.4-22.3]) was significantly higher than that for unvaccinated (17.9 [15.2-21.6]; P = .02) and post-vaccine series individuals (17.8 [15.3-21.5]; P = .005). Post-booster dose cases remained associated with a significantly higher median Ct value than cases in unvaccinated individuals (P ≤ .001), after adjustment for covariates. Compared with values in persons aged 18-29 years, Ct values were significantly lower among most age groups >50 years.

Conclusions

While slightly lower Ct values were observed among unvaccinated individuals infected with Omicron compared with post-booster dose cases, further research is required to determine whether a significant difference in secondary transmission exists between these groups.

Positive feedback loops exacerbate the influence of superspreaders in disease transmission

Superspreaders are recognized as being important drivers of disease spread. However, models to date have assumed random occurrence of superspreaders, irrespective of whom they were infected by. Evidence suggests though that those individuals infected by superspreaders may be more likely to become superspreaders themselves. Here, we begin to explore, theoretically, the effects of such a positive feedback loop on (1) the final epidemic size, (2) the herd immunity threshold, (3) the basic reproduction number, R₀, and (4) the peak prevalence of superspreaders, using a generic model for a hypothetical acute viral infection and illustrative parameter values. We show that positive feedback loops can have a profound effect on our chosen epidemic outcomes, even when the transmission advantage of superspreaders is moderate, and despite peak prevalence of superspreaders remaining low. We argue that positive superspreader feedback loops in different infectious diseases, including SARS-CoV-2, should be investigated further, both theoretically and empirically.

Comparison of diagnostic performance of RT-qPCR, RT-LAMP and IgM/IgG rapid tests for detection of SARS-CoV-2 among healthcare workers in Brazil

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 has become a major public health problem after the outbreak caused by SARS-CoV-2 virus. Great efforts to contain COVID-19 transmission have been applied worldwide. In this context, accurate and fast diagnosis is essential.

METHODS

In this prospective study, we evaluated the clinical performance of three different RNA-based molecular tests - RT-qPCR (Charité protocol), RT-qPCR (CDC (USA) protocol) and RT-LAMP - and one rapid test for detecting anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgM and IgG antibodies.

RESULTS

Our results demonstrate that RT-qPCR using the CDC (USA) protocol is the most accurate diagnostic test among those evaluated, while oro-nasopharyngeal swabs are the most appropriate biological sample. RT-LAMP was the RNA-based molecular test with lowest sensitivity while the serological test presented the lowest sensitivity among all evaluated tests, indicating that the latter test is not a good predictor of disease in the first days after symptoms onset. Additionally, we observed higher viral load in individuals who reported more than 3 symptoms at the baseline. Nevertheless, viral load had not impacted the probability of testing positive for SARS-CoV-2.

CONCLUSION

Our data indicates that RT-qPCR using the CDC (USA) protocol in oro-nasopharyngeal swabs samples should be the method of choice to diagnosis COVID-19.

Age-specific transmission dynamics under suppression control measures during SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2 epidemic

BACKGROUND

From March to June 2022, an Omicron BA.2 epidemic occurred in Shanghai. We aimed to better understand the transmission dynamics and identify age-specific transmission characteristics for the epidemic.

METHODS

Data on COVID-19 cases were collected from the Shanghai Municipal Health Commission during the period from 20th February to 1st June. The effective reproductive number (R_t) and transmission distance between cases were calculated. An age-structured SEIR model with social contact patterns was developed to reconstruct the transmission dynamics and evaluate age-specific transmission characteristics. Least square method was used to calibrate the model. Basic reproduction number (R₀) was estimated with next generation matrix.

RESULTS

R₀ of Omicron variant was 7.9 (95% CI: 7.4 to 8.4). With strict interventions, R_t had dropped quickly from 3.6 (95% CI: 2.7 to 4.7) on 4th March to below 1 on 18th April. The mean transmission distance of the Omicron epidemic in Shanghai was 13.4 km (95% CI: 11.1 to 15.8 km), which was threefold longer compared with that of epidemic caused by the wild-type virus in Wuhan, China. The model estimated that there would have been a total 870,845 (95% CI: 815,400 to 926,289) cases for the epidemic from 20th February to 15th June, and 27.7% (95% CI: 24.4% to 30.9%) cases would have been unascertained. People aged 50-59 years had the highest transmission risk 0.216 (95% CI: 0.210 to 0.222), and the highest secondary attack rate (47.62%, 95% CI: 38.71% to 56.53%).

CONCLUSIONS

The Omicron variant spread more quickly and widely than other variants and resulted in about one third cases unascertained for the recent outbreak in Shanghai. Prioritizing isolation and screening of people aged 40-59 might suppress the epidemic more effectively. Routine surveillance among people aged 40-59 years could also provide insight into the stage of the epidemic and the timely detection of new variants.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

We did not involve clinical trial.

SARS-CoV-2 incubation period across variants of concern, individual factors, and circumstances of infection in France: a case series analysis from the ComCor study

BACKGROUND

The incubation period of SARS-CoV-2 has been estimated for the known variants of concern. However, differences in study designs and settings make comparing variants difficult. We aimed to estimate the incubation period for each variant of concern compared with the historical strain within a unique and large study to identify individual factors and circumstances associated with its duration.

METHODS

In this case series analysis, we included participants (aged ≥18 years) of the ComCor case-control study in France who had a SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis between Oct 27, 2020, and Feb 4, 2022. Eligible participants were those who had the historical strain or a variant of concern during a single encounter with a known index case who was symptomatic and for whom the incubation period could be established, those who reported doing a reverse-transcription-PCR (RT-PCR) test, and those who were symptomatic by study completion. Sociodemographic and clinical characteristics, exposure information, circumstances of infection, and COVID-19 vaccination details were obtained via an online questionnaire, and variants were established through variant typing after RT-PCR testing or by matching the time that a positive test was reported with the predominance of a specific variant. We used multivariable linear regression to identify factors associated with the duration of the incubation period (defined as the number of days from contact with the index case to symptom onset).

FINDINGS

20 413 participants were eligible for inclusion in this study. Mean incubation period varied across variants: 4·96 days (95% CI 4·90-5·02) for alpha (B.1.1.7), 5·18 days (4·93-5·43) for beta (B.1.351) and gamma (P.1), 4·43 days (4·36-4·49) for delta (B.1.617.2), and 3·61 days (3·55-3·68) for omicron (B.1.1.529) compared with 4·61 days (4·56-4·66) for the historical strain. Participants with omicron had a shorter incubation period than participants with the historical strain (-0·9 days, 95% CI -1·0 to -0·7). The incubation period increased with age (participants aged ≥70 years had an incubation period 0·4 days [0·2 to 0·6] longer than participants aged 18-29 years), in female participants (by 0·1 days, 0·0 to 0·2), and in those who wore a mask during contact with the index case (by 0·2 days, 0·1 to 0·4), and was reduced in those for whom the index case was symptomatic (-0·1 days, -0·2 to -0·1). These data were robust to sensitivity analyses correcting for an over-reporting of incubation periods of 7 days.

INTERPRETATION

SARS-CoV-2 incubation period is notably reduced in omicron cases compared with all other variants of concern, in young people, after transmission from a symptomatic index case, after transmission to a maskless secondary case, and (to a lesser extent) in men. These findings can inform future COVID-19 contact-tracing strategies and modelling.

FUNDING

Institut Pasteur, the French National Agency for AIDS Research-Emerging Infectious Diseases, Fondation de France, the INCEPTION project, and the Integrative Biology of Emerging Infectious Diseases project.

Assessing the Impact of Vaccination on the Dynamics of COVID-19 in Africa: A Mathematical Modeling Study

Several effective COVID-19 vaccines are administered to combat the COVID-19 pandemic globally. In most African countries, there is a comparatively limited deployment of vaccination programs. In this work, we develop a mathematical compartmental model to assess the impact of vaccination programs on curtailing the burden of COVID-19 in eight African countries considering SARS-CoV-2 cumulative case data for each country for the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. The model stratifies the total population into two subgroups based on individual vaccination status. We use the detection and death rates ratios between vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals to quantify the vaccine's effectiveness in reducing new COVID-19 infections and death, respectively. Additionally, we perform a numerical sensitivity analysis to assess the combined impact of vaccination and reduction in the SARS-CoV-2 transmission due to control measures on the control reproduction number (Rc). Our results reveal that on average, at least 60% of the population in each considered African country should be vaccinated to curtail the pandemic (lower the Rc below one). Moreover, lower values of Rc are possible even when there is a low (10%) or moderate (30%) reduction in the SARS-CoV-2 transmission rate due to NPIs. Combining vaccination programs with various levels of reduction in the transmission rate due to NPI aids in curtailing the pandemic. Additionally, this study shows that vaccination significantly reduces the severity of the disease and death rates despite low efficacy against COVID-19 infections. The African governments need to design vaccination strategies that increase vaccine uptake, such as an incentive-based approach.

Risk factors and vectors for SARS-CoV-2 household transmission: a prospective, longitudinal cohort study

BACKGROUND

Despite circumstantial evidence for aerosol and fomite spread of SARS-CoV-2, empirical data linking either pathway with transmission are scarce. Here we aimed to assess whether the presence of SARS-CoV-2 on frequently-touched surfaces and residents' hands was a predictor of SARS-CoV-2 household transmission.

METHODS

In this longitudinal cohort study, during the pre-alpha (September to December, 2020) and alpha (B.1.1.7; December, 2020, to April, 2021) SARS-CoV-2 variant waves, we prospectively recruited contacts from households exposed to newly diagnosed COVID-19 primary cases, in London, UK. To maximally capture transmission events, contacts were recruited regardless of symptom status and serially tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection by RT-PCR on upper respiratory tract (URT) samples and, in a subcohort, by serial serology. Contacts' hands, primary cases' hands, and frequently-touched surface-samples from communal areas were tested for SARS-CoV-2 RNA. SARS-CoV-2 URT isolates from 25 primary case-contact pairs underwent whole-genome sequencing (WGS).

FINDINGS

From Aug 1, 2020, until March 31, 2021, 620 contacts of PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2-infected primary cases were recruited. 414 household contacts (from 279 households) with available serial URT PCR results were analysed in the full household contacts' cohort, and of those, 134 contacts with available longitudinal serology data and not vaccinated pre-enrolment were analysed in the serology subcohort. Household infection rate was 28·4% (95% CI 20·8-37·5) for pre-alpha-exposed contacts and 51·8% (42·5-61·0) for alpha-exposed contacts (p=0·0047). Primary cases' URT RNA viral load did not correlate with transmission, but was associated with detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA on their hands (p=0·031). SARS-CoV-2 detected on primary cases' hands, in turn, predicted contacts' risk of infection (adjusted relative risk [aRR]=1·70 [95% CI 1·24-2·31]), as did SARS-CoV-2 RNA presence on household surfaces (aRR=1·66 [1·09-2·55]) and contacts' hands (aRR=2·06 [1·57-2·69]). In six contacts with an initial negative URT PCR result, hand-swab (n=3) and household surface-swab (n=3) PCR positivity preceded URT PCR positivity. WGS corroborated household transmission.

INTERPRETATION

Presence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA on primary cases' and contacts' hands and on frequently-touched household surfaces associates with transmission, identifying these as potential vectors for spread in households.

FUNDING

National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Respiratory Infections, Medical Research Council.

Estimated COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness against seroconversion from SARS-CoV-2 Infection, March-October, 2021

BACKGROUND

Monitoring the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 infections remains important to inform public health responses. Estimation of vaccine effectiveness (VE) against serological evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection might provide an alternative measure of the benefit of vaccination against infection.

METHODS

We estimated mRNA COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE) against development of SARS-CoV-2 anti-nucleocapsid antibodies in March-October 2021, during which the Delta variant became predominant. Participants were enrolled from four participating healthcare systems in the United States, and completed electronic surveys that included vaccination history. Dried blood spot specimens collected on a monthly basis were analyzed for anti-spike antibodies, and, if positive, anti-nucleocapsid antibodies. We used detection of new anti-nucleocapsid antibodies to indicate SARS-CoV-2 infection, and estimated VE by comparing 154 case-participants with new detection of anti-nucleocapsid antibodies to 1,540 seronegative control-participants matched by calendar period. Using conditional logistic regression, we estimated VE ≥ 14 days after the 2nd dose of an mRNA vaccine compared with no receipt of a COVID-19 vaccine dose, adjusting for age group, healthcare worker occupation, urban/suburban/rural residence, healthcare system region, and reported contact with a person testing positive for SARS-CoV-2.

RESULTS

Among individuals who completed a primary series, estimated VE against seroconversion from SARS-CoV-2 infection was 88.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 79.6%-93.9%) after any mRNA vaccine, 87.8% (95% CI, 75.9%-93.8%) after BioNTech vaccine and 91.7% (95% CI, 75.7%-97.2%) after Moderna vaccine. VE was estimated to be lower ≥ 3 months after dose 2 compared with < 3 months after dose 2, and among participants who were older or had underlying health conditions, although confidence intervals overlapped between subgroups.

CONCLUSIONS

VE estimates generated using infection-induced antibodies were consistent with published estimates from clinical trials and observational studies that used virologic tests to confirm infection during the same period. Our findings support recommendations for eligible adults to remain up to date with COVID-19 vaccination.

Simplified within-host and Dose-response Models of SARS-CoV-2

Understanding the mechanistic dynamics of transmission is key to designing more targeted and effective interventions to limit the spread of infectious diseases. A well-described within-host model allows explicit simulation of how infectiousness changes over time at an individual level. This can then be coupled with dose-response models to investigate the impact of timing on transmission. We collected and compared a range of within-host models used in previous studies and identified a minimally-complex model that provides suitable within-host dynamics while keeping a reduced number of parameters to allow inference and limit unidentifiability issues. Furthermore, non-dimensionalised models were developed to further overcome the uncertainty in estimates of the size of the susceptible cell population, a common problem in many of these approaches. We will discuss these models, and their fit to data from the human challenge study (see Killingley et al. (2022)) for SARS-CoV-2 and the model selection results, which has been performed using ABC-SMC. The parameter posteriors have then used to simulate viral-load based infectiousness profiles via a range of dose-response models, which illustrate the large variability of the periods of infection window observed for COVID-19.

Reducing societal impacts of SARS-CoV-2 interventions through subnational implementation

To curb the initial spread of SARS-CoV-2, many countries relied on nation-wide implementation of non-pharmaceutical intervention measures, resulting in substantial socio-economic impacts. Potentially, subnational implementations might have had less of a societal impact, but comparable epidemiological impact. Here, using the first COVID-19 wave in the Netherlands as a case in point, we address this issue by developing a high-resolution analysis framework that uses a demographically stratified population and a spatially explicit, dynamic, individual contact-pattern based epidemiology, calibrated to hospital admissions data and mobility trends extracted from mobile phone signals and Google. We demonstrate how a subnational approach could achieve similar level of epidemiological control in terms of hospital admissions, while some parts of the country could stay open for a longer period. Our framework is exportable to other countries and settings, and may be used to develop policies on subnational approach as a better strategic choice for controlling future epidemics.

SARS-CoV-2 viral load and shedding kinetics

SARS-CoV-2 viral load and detection of infectious virus in the respiratory tract are the two key parameters for estimating infectiousness. As shedding of infectious virus is required for onward transmission, understanding shedding characteristics is relevant for public health interventions. Viral shedding is influenced by biological characteristics of the virus, host factors and pre-existing immunity (previous infection or vaccination) of the infected individual. Although the process of human-to-human transmission is multifactorial, viral load substantially contributed to human-to-human transmission, with higher viral load posing a greater risk for onward transmission. Emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have further complicated the picture of virus shedding. As underlying immunity in the population through previous infection, vaccination or a combination of both has rapidly increased on a global scale after almost 3 years of the pandemic, viral shedding patterns have become more distinct from those of ancestral SARS-CoV-2. Understanding the factors and mechanisms that influence infectious virus shedding and the period during which individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 are contagious is crucial to guide public health measures and limit transmission. Furthermore, diagnostic tools to demonstrate the presence of infectious virus from routine diagnostic specimens are needed.

How time-scale differences in asymptomatic and symptomatic transmission shape SARS-CoV-2 outbreak dynamics

Asymptomatic and symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections can have different characteristic time scales of transmission. These time-scale differences can shape outbreak dynamics as well as bias population-level estimates of epidemic strength, speed, and controllability. For example, prior work focusing on the initial exponential growth phase of an outbreak found that larger time scales for asymptomatic vs. symptomatic transmission can lead to under-estimates of the basic reproduction number as inferred from epidemic case data. Building upon this work, we use a series of nonlinear epidemic models to explore how differences in asymptomatic and symptomatic transmission time scales can lead to changes in the realized proportion of asymptomatic transmission throughout an epidemic. First, we find that when asymptomatic transmission time scales are longer than symptomatic transmission time scales, then the effective proportion of asymptomatic transmission increases as total incidence decreases. Moreover, these time-scale-driven impacts on epidemic dynamics are enhanced when infection status is correlated between infector and infectee pairs (e.g., due to dose-dependent impacts on symptoms). Next we apply these findings to understand the impact of time-scale differences on populations with age-dependent assortative mixing and in which the probability of having a symptomatic infection increases with age. We show that if asymptomatic generation intervals are longer than corresponding symptomatic generation intervals, then correlations between age and symptoms lead to a decrease in the age of infection during periods of epidemic decline (whether due to susceptible depletion or intervention). Altogether, these results demonstrate the need to explore the role of time-scale differences in transmission dynamics alongside behavioral changes to explain outbreak features both at early stages (e.g., in estimating the basic reproduction number) and throughout an epidemic (e.g., in connecting shifts in the age of infection to periods of changing incidence).

Application of ultrasensitive assay for SARS-CoV-2 antigen in nasopharynx in the management of COVID-19 patients with comorbidities during the peak of 2022 Shanghai epidemics in a tertiary hospital

OBJECTIVES

Various comorbidities associated with COVID-19 add up in severity of the disease and obviously prolonged the time for viral clearance. This study investigated a novel ultrasensitive MAGLUMI^® SARS-CoV-2 Ag chemiluminescent immunoassay assay (MAG-CLIA) for diagnosis and monitoring the infectivity of COVID-19 patients with comorbid conditions during the pandemic of 2022 Shanghai.

METHODS

Analytical performances of the MAG-CLIA were evaluated, including precision, limit of quantitation, linearity and specificity. Nasopharyngeal specimens from 232 hospitalized patients who were SARS-CoV-2 RT-qPCR positive and from 477 healthy donors were included. The longitudinal studies were performed by monitoring antigen concentrations alongside with RT-qPCR results in 14 COVID-19 comorbid participants for up to 22 days. The critical antigen concentration in determining virus infectivity was evaluated at the reference cycle threshold (Ct) of 35.

RESULTS

COVID-19 patients were well-identified using an optimal threshold of 0.64 ng/L antigen concentration, with sensitivity and specificity of 95.7% (95% CI: 92.2-97.9%) and 98.3% (95% CI: 96.7-99.3%), respectively, while the Wondfo LFT exhibited those of 34.9% (95% CI: 28.8-41.4%) and 100% (95% CI: 99.23-100%), respectively. The sensitivity of MAG-CLIA remained 91.46% (95% CI: 83.14-95.8%) for the samples with Ct values between 35 and 40. Close dynamic consistence was observed between MAG-CLIA and viral load time series in the longitudinal studies. The critical value of 8.82 ng/L antigen showed adequate sensitivity and specificity in evaluating the infectivity of hospitalized convalescent patients with comorbidities.

CONCLUSIONS

The MAG-CLIA SARS-CoV-2 Ag detection is an effective and alternative approach for rapid diagnosis and enables us to evaluate the infectivity of hospitalized convalescent patients with comorbidities.

Identifying Pathogen and Allele Type Simultaneously in a Single Well Using Droplet Digital PCR

In the transmission control of chronic and untreatable livestock diseases such as bovine leukemia virus (BLV) infection, the removal of viral superspreaders is a fundamental approach. On the other hand, selective breeding of cattle with BLV-resistant capacity is also critical for reducing the viral damage to productivity by keeping infected cattle. To provide a way of measuring BLV proviral load (PVL) and identifying susceptible/resistant cattle simply and rapidly, we developed a fourplex droplet digital PCR method targeting the BLV pol gene, BLV-susceptible bovine major histocompatibility complex (BoLA)-DRB3*016:01 allele, resistant DRB3*009:02 allele, and housekeeping RPP30 gene (IPATS-BLV). IPATS-BLV successfully measured the percentage of BLV-infected cells and determined allele types precisely. Furthermore, it discriminated homozygous from heterozygous carriers. Using this method to determine the impact of carrying these alleles on the BLV PVL, we found DRB3*009:02-carrying cattle could suppress the PVL to a low or undetectable level, even with the presence of a susceptible heterozygous allele. Although the population of DRB3*016:01-carrying cattle showed significantly higher PVLs compared with cattle carrying other alleles, their individual PVLs were highly variable. Because of the simplicity and speed of this single-well assay, our method has the potential of being a suitable platform for the combined diagnosis of pathogen level and host biomarkers in other infectious diseases satisfying the two following characteristics of disease outcomes: (i) pathogen level acts as a critical maker of disease progression; and (ii) impactful disease-related host genetic biomarkers are already identified. IMPORTANCE While pathogen-level quantification is an important diagnostic of disease severity and transmissibility, disease-related host biomarkers are also useful in predicting outcomes in infectious diseases. In this study, we demonstrate that combined proviral load (PVL) and host biomarker diagnostics can be used to detect bovine leukemia virus (BLV) infection, which has a negative economic impact on the cattle industry. We developed a fourplex droplet digital PCR assay for PVL of BLV and susceptible and resistant host genes named IPATS-BLV. IPATS-BLV has inherent merits in measuring PVL and identifying susceptible and resistant cattle with superior simplicity and speed because of a single-well assay. Our new laboratory technique contributes to strengthening risk-based herd management used to control within-herd BLV transmission. Furthermore, this assay design potentially improves the diagnostics of other infectious diseases by combining the pathogen level and disease-related host genetic biomarker to predict disease outcomes.

Evaluation of the Rapid Antigen Detection Test for Diagnosing SARS-CoV-2 during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Experience from a Centralized Isolation Site in Shanghai, China

Rapid and reliable diagnosis is important for the management of individuals infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The rapid antigen detection test (RADT) is a rapid, inexpensive, and easy method. Several studies have reported that RADTs performed well in many countries; however, very few studies have been reported in China. In this study, we assessed the performance of the RADT (Ediagnosis COVID-19 antigen test kit). This study was conducted in a centralized isolation site in Shanghai and enrolled 716 patients with COVID-19 and 203 noninfected participants. Nasopharyngeal swabs from all participants were collected on the same day and tested using the RADT and real-time reverse transcription-PCR (RT-PCR). The performance of the RADT was evaluated in different scenarios, such as threshold cycle (C_T) values, symptomatic phase, and symptoms on the day of testing. The results demonstrated that the sensitivity for patients with C_T values lower than 20 was 96.55% (95% confidence interval [CI], 87.05 to 99.4). The sensitivities were 78.4% (95% CI, 69.96 to 85.05) for participants within 5 days after the first RT-PCR-positive result and 90.77% (95% CI, 80.34 to 96.19) within 5 days after symptom onset. Moreover, the sensitivity of the RADT was more than 80% for patients with symptoms on the day of testing, including fever (89.29%), cough (86.84%), stuffy nose (92.59%), runny nose (92%), sore throat (81.25%), and muscle pain (80.77%), especially for those with upper respiratory tract symptoms. The specificity of the RADT was good in all scenarios. During the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic, Ediagnosis performed excellently in individuals with a higher viral load (evidenced by lower C_T values), individuals in the early symptomatic phase, and especially those with upper respiratory tract symptoms. IMPORTANCE RADTs have demonstrated excellent performance in many counties for screening SARS-CoV-2 infection, but very few studies have been conducted in China. The performance of RADTs is largely related to different real-life scenarios. In our study, the performance of the RADT was evaluated in different scenarios, such as C_T values, symptomatic phase, and symptoms on the day of testing. The results demonstrated that Ediagnosis (an RADT made in China) performed excellently for individuals with a higher viral load (evidenced by lower C_T values), individuals in the early symptomatic phase, and especially those with upper respiratory tract symptoms.

Temporal Series Analysis of Population Cycle Threshold Counts as a Predictor of Surge in Cases and Hospitalizations during the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic

Tools to predict surges in cases and hospitalizations during the COVID-19 pandemic may help guide public health decisions. Low cycle threshold (CT) counts may indicate greater SARS-CoV-2 concentrations in the respiratory tract, and thereby may be used as a surrogate marker of enhanced viral transmission. Several population studies have found an association between the oscillations in the mean CT over time and the evolution of the pandemic. For the first time, we applied temporal series analysis (Granger-type causality) to validate the CT counts as an epidemiological marker of forthcoming pandemic waves using samples and analyzing cases and hospital admissions during the third pandemic wave (October 2020 to May 2021) in Madrid. A total of 22,906 SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR-positive nasopharyngeal swabs were evaluated; the mean CT value was 27.4 (SD: 2.1) (22.2% below 20 cycles). During this period, 422,110 cases and 36,727 hospital admissions were also recorded. A temporal association was found between the CT counts and the cases of COVID-19 with a lag of 9-10 days (p ≤ 0.01) and hospital admissions by COVID-19 (p < 0.04) with a lag of 2-6 days. According to a validated method to prove associations between variables that change over time, the short-term evolution of average CT counts in the population may forecast the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Exhaled SARS-CoV-2 RNA viral load kinetics measured by facemask sampling associates with household transmission

OBJECTIVES

No studies have examined longitudinal patterns of naturally exhaled SARS-CoV-2 RNA viral load (VL) during acute infection. We report this using facemask sampling (FMS) and assessed the relationship between emitted RNA VL and household transmission.

METHODS

Between December 2020 and February 2021, we recruited participants within 24 hours of a positive RT-qPCR on upper respiratory tract sampling (URTS) (day 0). Participants gave FMS (for 1 hour) and URTS (self-taken) on seven occasions up to day 21. Samples were analysed by RT-qPCR (from sampling matrix strips within the mask) and symptom diaries were recorded. Household transmission was assessed through reporting of positive URTS RT-qPCR in household contacts.

RESULTS

Analysis of 203 FMS and 190 URTS from 34 participants showed that RNA VL peaked within the first 5 days following sampling. Concomitant URTS, FMS RNA VL, and symptom scores, however, were poorly correlated, but a higher severity of reported symptoms was associated with FMS positivity up to day 5. Of 28 participants who had household contacts, 12 (43%) reported transmission. Frequency of household transmission was associated with the highest (peak) FMS RNA VL obtained (negative genome copies/strip: 0% household transmission; 1 to 1000 copies/strip: 20%; 1001 to 10 000 copies/strip: 57%; >10 000 copies/strip: 75%; p = 0.048; age adjusted OR of household transmission per log increase in copies/strip: 4.97; 95% CI, 1.20-20.55; p = 0.02) but not observed with peak URTS RNA VL.

DISCUSSION

Exhaled RNA VL measured by FMS is highest in early infection, can be positive in symptomatic patients with concomitantly negative URTS, and is strongly associated with household transmission.

Association of SARS-CoV-2 viral load distributions with individual demographics and suspected variant type: results from the Liverpool community testing pilot, England, 6 November 2020 to 8 September 2021

BackgroundThe PCR quantification cycle (C_q) is a proxy measure of the viral load of a SARS-CoV-2-infected individual.AimTo investigate if C_q values vary according to different population characteristics, in particular demographic ones, and within the COVID-19 pandemic context, notably the SARS-CoV-2 type/variant individuals get infected with.MethodsWe considered all positive PCR results from Cheshire and Merseyside, England, between 6 November 2020 and 8 September 2021. C_q distributions were inspected with Kernel density estimates. Multivariable quantile regression models assessed associations between people's features and C_q.ResultsWe report C_q values for 188,821 SARS-CoV-2 positive individuals. Median C_qs increased with decreasing age for suspected wild-type virus and Alpha variant infections, but less so, if not, for Delta. For example, compared to 30-39-year-olds (median age group), 5-11-year-olds exhibited 1.8 (95% CI: 1.5 to 2.1), 2.2 (95% CI: 1.8 to 2.6) and 0.8 (95% CI: 0.6 to 0.9) higher median C_qs for suspected wild-type, Alpha and Delta positives, respectively, in multivariable analysis. 12-18-year-olds also had higher C_qs for wild-type and Alpha positives, however, not for Delta. Overall, in univariable analysis, suspected Delta positives reported 2.8 lower median C_qs than wild-type positives (95% CI: 2.7 to 2.8; p < 0.001). Suspected Alpha positives had 1.5 (95% CI: 1.4 to 1.5; p < 0.001) lower median C_qs than wild type.ConclusionsWild-type- or Alpha-infected school-aged children (5-11-year-olds) might transmit less than adults (> 18 years old), but have greater mixing exposures. Smaller differences in viral loads with age occurred in suspected Delta infections. Suspected-Alpha- or Delta-infections involved higher viral loads than wild type, suggesting increased transmission risk. COVID-19 control strategies should consider age and dominant variant.

Comparison of a novel antigen detection test with reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction assay for laboratory diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection

Molecular diagnosis of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) by real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) in respiratory specimens is considered the gold standard method. This method is highly sensitive and specific but it has some limitations such as being expensive and requiring special laboratory equipment and skilled personnel. RapidFor™ Antigen Rapid Test Kit is a commercially available Ag-RDT which is produced in Turkey and designed to detect the nucleocapsid antigen of SARS-CoV-2 in nasopharyngeal swab samples. The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of this novel SARS-CoV-2 antigen detection considering the RT-PCR method as the gold standard. Four hundred forty-four nasopharyngeal swab samples which were collected from the patients who met clinical criteria of COVID-19 from ten centers in Turkey between September 2020 and February 2021 were included in the study. All the nasopharyngeal swab samples were tested for SARS-CoV-2 RNA using commercial RT-PCR kits (Bioeksen and A1 Lifesciences, İstanbul, Turkey) according to the manufacturer's instructions. Viral loads were assessed according to the cycle threshold (Ct) values. RapidFor™ SARS-CoV-2 antigen test (Vitrosens Biotechnology, Istanbul, Turkey) was used to investigate the presence of SARS-CoV-2 antigen in all samples following the manufacturer's instructions. Out of 444 nasopharyngeal swab samples tested, 346 (77.9%) were positive and 98 (22.1%) were negative for SARS-CoV-2 RNA by RTPCR. Overall sensitivity of the RapidFor™. Antigen Rapid Test Kit was 80.3% whereas specificity was found to be 87.8%. Positivity rate of rapid antigen test in samples with Ct values over 25 and below 30 was 82.7%, while it increased to 95.7% in samples 20 ≤ Ct < 25 and reached 100% in samples with Ct values below 20. RapidFor™ SARS-CoV-2 Ag test might be a good choice in the screening of symptomatic and asymptomatic patients and their contacts for taking isolation measures early, with advantages over RT-PCR as being rapid, easy and being applicable in every laboratory and even at point of care.

Symptomatic and Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Infection and Follow-up of Neutralizing Antibody Levels

OBJECTIVE

To investigate neutralizing antibody levels in symptomatic and asymptomatic patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) at 6 and 10 months after disease onset.

METHODS

Blood samples were collected at three different time points from 27 asymptomatic individuals and 69 symptomatic patients infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Virus-neutralizing antibody titers against SARS-CoV-2 in both groups were measured and statistically analyzed.

RESULTS

The symptomatic and asymptomatic groups had higher neutralizing antibodies at 3 months and 1-2 months post polymerase chain reaction confirmation, respectively. However, neutralizing antibodies in both groups dropped significantly to lower levels at 6 months post-PCR confirmation.

CONCLUSION

Continued monitoring of symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals with COVID-19 is key to controlling the infection.

Main Predictors of COVID-19 Vaccination Uptake among Italian Healthcare Workers in Relation to Variable Degrees of Hesitancy: Result from a Cross-Sectional Online Survey

Background: Hesitancy remains one of the major hurdles to vaccination, regardless of the fact that vaccines are indisputable preventive measures against many infectious diseases. Nevertheless, vaccine hesitancy or refusal is a growing phenomenon in the general population as well as among healthcare workers (HCWs). Many different factors can contribute to hesitancy to COVID-19 vaccination in the HCWs population, including socio-demographic characteristics (female gender, low socio-economical status, lower age), individual beliefs regarding vaccine efficacy and safety, as well as other factors (occupation, knowledge about COVID-19, etc.). Understanding the determinants of accepting or refusing the COVID-19 vaccination is crucial to plan specific interventions in order to increase the rate of vaccine coverage among health care workers. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional online survey on HCWs in seventeen Italian regions, between 30 June and 4 July 2021, in order to collect information about potential factors related to vaccine acceptance and hesitancy. Results: We found an overall vaccine uptake rate of 96.4% in our sample. Acceptance was significantly related to job task, with physicians showing the highest rate of uptake compared to other occupations. At univariate analysis, the HCWs population’s vaccine hesitancy was significantly positively associated with fear of vaccination side effects (p < 0.01), and negatively related to confidence in the safety and efficacy of the vaccine (p < 0.01). Through multivariate analysis, we found that only the fear of possible vaccination side effects (OR: 4.631, p < 0.01) and the confidence in vaccine safety and effectiveness (OR: 0.35 p < 0.05) remained significantly associated with hesitancy. Conclusion: Action to improve operator confidence in the efficacy and safety of the vaccine should improve the acceptance rate among operators.

SARS-CoV-2 nasopharyngeal viral load in individuals infected with BA.2, compared to Alpha, Gamma, Delta and BA.1 variants: A single-center comparative analysis

BACKGROUND

SARS-CoV-2 has evolved, leading to the emergence of new Variants Of Concern (VOCs) with significant impact on transmissibility. Although the transmission process is complex, higher nasopharyngeal viral load (NP-VL) can be considered as a proxy for greater transmissibility.

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this analysis was to compare NP-VL across a set of representative VOCs observed in mildly symptomatic patients.

STUDY DESIGN

Observational single-center comparative analysis of patients with early mild-to-moderate COVID-19, enrolled within the early treatment access program of Lazzaro Spallanzani Institute (March 2021-March 2022). NP-VL before drug administration was estimated through RT-PCR, based on cycle threshold values (CTs); VOCs were identified by Sanger sequencing. VOCs' average treatment effect (ATE) was estimated on the CTs fitted in the log2 scale, controlling for potential confounders.

RESULTS

A total of 707 patients were included. VOCs were: 10% Alpha, 3% Gamma, 34% Delta, 34% BA.1, 19% BA.2. Mean CTs for BA.1 and BA.2 were lower than Delta and BA.1, respectively. After adjusting for calendar time, age, immunodeficiency and vaccination, CTs for Gamma were lower than those seen for Alpha and higher than Delta, for Delta were similar to BA.1, for BA.2 were lower than Delta and BA.1.

CONCLUSIONS

Our analysis shows higher NP-VL of BA.2 compared to previously circulating VOCs, even after controlling for factors potentially contributing to the amount of nasopharyngeal viral RNA, included vaccination, supporting the increased transmissibility of BA.2. Further studies are necessary to clarify this mechanism and to provide guidance for public health measures.

COVID-19 outbreaks analysis in the Valencian Region of Spain in the prelude of the third wave

Introduction

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to unprecedented social and mobility restrictions on a global scale. Since its start in the spring of 2020, numerous scientific papers have been published on the characteristics of the virus, and the healthcare, economic and social consequences of the pandemic. However, in-depth analyses of the evolution of single coronavirus outbreaks have been rarely reported.

Methods

In this paper, we analyze the main properties of all the tracked COVID-19 outbreaks in the Valencian Region between September and December of 2020. Our analysis includes the evaluation of the origin, dynamic evolution, duration, and spatial distribution of the outbreaks.

Results

We find that the duration of the outbreaks follows a power-law distribution: most outbreaks are controlled within 2 weeks of their onset, and only a few last more than 2 months. We do not identify any significant differences in the outbreak properties with respect to the geographical location across the entire region. Finally, we also determine the cluster size distribution of each infection origin through a Bayesian statistical model.

Discussion

We hope that our work will assist in optimizing and planning the resource assignment for future pandemic tracking efforts.

The COVID-19 Sentinel Schools Network of Catalonia (CSSNC) project: Associated factors to prevalence and incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in educational settings during the 2020-2021 academic year

The Sentinel Schools project was designed to monitor and evaluate the epidemiology of COVID-19 in Catalonia, gathering evidence for health and education policies to inform the development of health protocols and public health interventions to control of SARS-CoV-2 infection in schools. The aim of this study was to estimate the prevalence and incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infections and to identify their determinants among students and staff during February to June in the academic year 2020-2021. We performed two complementary studies, a cross-sectional and a longitudinal component, using a questionnaire to collect nominal data and testing for SARS-CoV-2 detection. We describe the results and perform a univariate and multivariate analysis. The initial crude seroprevalence was 14.8% (95% CI: 13.1-16.5) and 22% (95% CI: 18.3-25.8) for students and staff respectively, and the active infection prevalence was 0.7% (95% CI: 0.3-1) and 1.1% (95% CI: 0.1-2). The overall incidence for persons at risk was 2.73 per 100 person-month and 2.89 and 2.34 per 100 person-month for students and staff, respectively. Socioeconomic, self-reported knowledge, risk perceptions and contact pattern variables were positively associated with the outcome while sanitary measure compliance was negatively associated, the same significance trend was observed in multivariate analysis. In the longitudinal component, epidemiological close contact with SARS-CoV-2 infection was a risk factor for SARS-CoV-2 infection while the highest socioeconomic status level was protective as was compliance with sanitary measures. The small number of active cases detected in these schools suggests a low transmission among children in school and the efficacy of public health measures implemented, at least in the epidemiological scenario of the study period. The major contribution of this study was to provide results and evidence that help analyze the transmission dynamic of SARS-CoV-2 and evaluate the associations between sanitary protocols implemented, and measures to avoid SARS-CoV-2 spread in schools.

Quantifying the impact of immune history and variant on SARS-CoV-2 viral kinetics and infection rebound: A retrospective cohort study

Background

The combined impact of immunity and SARS-CoV-2 variants on viral kinetics during infections has been unclear.

Methods

We characterized 1,280 infections from the National Basketball Association occupational health cohort identified between June 2020 and January 2022 using serial RT-qPCR testing. Logistic regression and semi-mechanistic viral RNA kinetics models were used to quantify the effect of age, variant, symptom status, infection history, vaccination status and antibody titer to the founder SARS-CoV-2 strain on the duration of potential infectiousness and overall viral kinetics. The frequency of viral rebounds was quantified under multiple cycle threshold (Ct) value-based definitions.

Results

Among individuals detected partway through their infection, 51.0% (95% credible interval [CrI]: 48.3-53.6%) remained potentially infectious (Ct <30) 5 days post detection, with small differences across variants and vaccination status. Only seven viral rebounds (0.7%; N=999) were observed, with rebound defined as 3+days with Ct <30 following an initial clearance of 3+days with Ct ≥30. High antibody titers against the founder SARS-CoV-2 strain predicted lower peak viral loads and shorter durations of infection. Among Omicron BA.1 infections, boosted individuals had lower pre-booster antibody titers and longer clearance times than non-boosted individuals.

Conclusions

SARS-CoV-2 viral kinetics are partly determined by immunity and variant but dominated by individual-level variation. Since booster vaccination protects against infection, longer clearance times for BA.1-infected, boosted individuals may reflect a less effective immune response, more common in older individuals, that increases infection risk and reduces viral RNA clearance rate. The shifting landscape of viral kinetics underscores the need for continued monitoring to optimize isolation policies and to contextualize the health impacts of therapeutics and vaccines.

Funding

Supported in part by CDC contract #200-2016-91779, a sponsored research agreement to Yale University from the National Basketball Association contract #21-003529, and the National Basketball Players Association.