Analysis of minimum target prices for production of entecavir to treat hepatitis B in high- and low-income countries

Pathway to global elimination of hepatitis B: HBV cure is just the first step

Hepatitis B (HBV) is a major cause of global morbidity and mortality, and the leading cause of liver cancer worldwide. Significant advances have recently been made toward the development of a finite HBV treatment that achieves permanent loss of HBsAg and HBV DNA (so-called "HBV cure"), which could provide the means to eliminate HBV as a public health threat. However, the HBV cure is just one step toward achieving WHO HBV elimination targets by 2030, and much work must be done now to prepare for the successful implementation of the HBV cure. In this review, we describe the required steps to rapidly scale-up future HBV cure equitably. We present key actions required for successful HBV cure implementation, integrated within the World Health Organization (WHO) Global Health Sector Strategy (GHSS) 2022-2030 framework. Finally, we highlight what can be done now to progress toward the 2030 HBV elimination targets using available tools to ensure that we are preparing, but not waiting, for the cure.

Synthesis and biological evaluation of esculetin derivatives as potential anti-HBV agents

Previous in vivo and in vitro studies revealed that esculetin (Fig. 1) has anti-hepatitis B virus (anti-HBV) activity as well as a protective effect on liver damage caused by duck hepatitis B virus. We designed and synthesized a series of esculetin derivatives, introduced side chains containing various amino groups into site 7 of the parent structure, and synthesized C-4 and C-8 substituted derivatives with the goal of investigating their anti-HBV activities. In vitro anti-HBV activity was performed against HepG2.2.15 cells by using Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay(ELISA) kit and cytotoxicity was determined by 3-(4,5-dimethylthiazol-2-yl)-2,5-diphenyl tetrazolium bromide (MTT) assay with lamivudine as the positive control. The results demonstrated that several compounds showed moderate anti-HBV activity, while the introduction of morpholine groups could significantly inhibit the expression of hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) and the introduction of the 2-methylimidazole group could significantly inhibit the expression of Hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg). Among all tested compounds, compound 4a demonstrated the best anti-HBeAg activity (IC₅₀ = 15.8 ± 4.2 μM), while compound 6d demonstrated the best anti-HBsAg activity (IC₅₀ = 21.4 ± 2.8 μM). Compounds 6b and 6c showed moderate anti-HBV activity and HBsAg inhibition. Compounds 4b showed moderate anti-HBV activity and an inhibitory effect on HBeAg. In addition, compounds 4a, 4c, 4d, 6b, 6c and 6d showed improved metabolic stability. This study provides useful guidance for the discovery of anti-HBV drugs, which merits further investigation.

Analysis of antiviral efficacy after switching from brand to generic entecavir in patients with treatment-naïve chronic hepatitis B

Background/Aims

Entecavir (ETV) can suppress chronic hepatitis B (CHB) virus replication as a standard of treatment drugs. For the treatment of CHB, affordable generic drugs may be more widely used in developing and undeveloped countries. However, there is little real-world data regarding the clinical efficacy of switching from entecavir-brand-name drugs (ETV-Brand) to entecavir generic drugs (ETV-Generic) with 0.5 mg once daily. The aim of the study was to evaluate the antiviral activity and safety of ETV-Generic in comparison to ETV-Brand in CHB-patients.

Methods

In this single-center, retrospective, 175 treatment-naïve—CHB-patients were assigned to receive 0.5 mg of ETV-Brand per day for a least 2 years and then switched to ETV-Generic for 6 months for analysis. The primary efficacy endpoint was a sustained virological response in comparison of the rate of undetectable serum Hepatitis B deoxyribonucleic acid (HBV DNA) as the sustained virologic response at baseline and 6 months after switching. Secondary efficacy endpoints were the comparison of the alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels between before and after switching and ALT normalization. Renal safety consideration was reported on changing the estimated glomerular filtration rate.

Results

From baseline to 6 months, the rate of undetectable HBV DNA and ALT levels remained stable as compared ETV-Brand period with ETV-Generic for 6 months. The rate of undetectable HBV DNA were 81.1%in ETV-Brand versus 88.0%in ETV-Generic (p = 0.05 CI 0.1–13.5%). ALT levels were 27.2 IU/L (CI 24.8–29.6 IU/L) in ETV-Brand versus 26.2 IU/L (CI 24.0–28.4 IU/L) in ETV-Generic (p = 0.55). Both endpoints were not significantly different between ETV-Brand and ETV-Generic treatments. Kidney function did not significantly differ from ETV-Brand (80.8, interquartile range [IQR]: 66.6–95.3 mL/min/1.73 m²) to ETV-Generic treatment period (80.3, IQR: 65.6–93.5 mL/min/1.73 m²).

Conclusion

In treatment-naïve CHB-patients, the efficacy and safety profiles of switching from ETV-Brand to ETV-Generic showed no difference. Concluding the ETV-Generic comes to exciting virologic responses and rare adverse events.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12876-022-02317-7.

Editorial: does TAF have a better or worse safety profile than TDF, to treat hepatitis B?

This article is linked to Lim et al papers. To view these articles, visit https://doi.org/10.1111/apt.16788 and https://doi.org/10.1111/apt.16886

The price tag of a potential cure for chronic hepatitis B infection: A cost threshold analysis for USA, China and Australia

BACKGROUND & AIMS

We aim to capture the economic impact of a potential cure for chronic hepatitis B infection (CHB) in three countries (USA, China and Australia) with different health systems and epidemics to estimate the threshold drug prices below which a CHB cure would be cost-saving and/or highly cost-effective.

METHODS

We simulated patients' hepatitis B progression, under three scenarios: current long-term suppressive antiviral therapy, functional cure defined as sustained undetectable HBsAg and HBV DNA, and partial cure defined as sustained undetectable HBV DNA only after a finite, 48-week treatment.

RESULTS

Compared with current long-term antiviral therapy, a 30% effective functional cure among patients with and without cirrhosis in the USA, China and Australia would yield 17.50, 17.32 and 20.42 QALYs per patient, and 20.61, 20.42 and 20.62 QALYs per patient respectively. In financial terms, for CHB patients with and without cirrhosis, this would be cost-saving at a one-time treatment cost under US$11 944 and US$6694, respectively, in the USA, US$1744 and US$1001 in China, and US$12 063 and US$10 983 in Australia.

CONCLUSION

We show that in purely economic terms, a CHB cure will be highly cost-effective even if effective in only 30% of treated patients. The threshold price for cure is largely determined by the current antiviral drug costs, since it will replace a daily antiviral pill that is inexpensive and effective, although not curative. The likely need for combination therapies to achieve cure will also present cost challenges. While cost-effectiveness is important, it cannot be the only consideration, as cure will provide many benefits in addition to reduced liver disease and HCC, including eliminating the need for a long-term daily pill and reducing stigma often associated with chronic viral infection.

A global investment framework for the elimination of hepatitis B

BACKGROUND & AIMS

More than 292 million people are living with hepatitis B worldwide and are at risk of death from cirrhosis and liver cancer. The World Health Organization (WHO) has set global targets for the elimination of viral hepatitis as a public health threat by 2030. However, current levels of global investment in viral hepatitis elimination programmes are insufficient to achieve these goals.

METHODS

To catalyse political commitment and to encourage domestic and international financing, we used published modelling data and key stakeholder interviews to develop an investment framework to demonstrate the return on investment for viral hepatitis elimination.

RESULTS

The framework utilises a public health approach to identify evidence-based national activities that reduce viral hepatitis-related morbidity and mortality, as well as international activities and critical enablers that allow countries to achieve maximum impact on health outcomes from their investments - in the context of the WHO's 2030 viral elimination targets.

CONCLUSION

Focusing on hepatitis B, this health policy paper employs the investment framework to estimate the substantial economic benefits of investing in the elimination of hepatitis B and demonstrates how such investments could be cost saving by 2030.

LAY SUMMARY

Hepatitis B infection is a major cause of death from liver disease and liver cancer globally. To reduce deaths from hepatitis B infection, we need more people to be tested and treated for hepatitis B. In this paper, we outline a framework of activities to reduce hepatitis B-related deaths and discuss ways in which governments could pay for them.

Maintaining Antiviral Efficacy after Switching to Generic Entecavir 1 mg for Antiviral-resistant Chronic Hepatitis B

Background/Aims

Clinical equivalence of generic antiviral agents for chronic hepatitis B (CHB) has not been demonstrated, particularly in cases with previous antiviral resistance. Entecavir 1 mg is prescribed frequently as a mono- or combination therapy in antiviral-resistant CHB patients. This study evaluated the efficacy and safety of switching to generic entecavir 1 mg (Baracle^®) in CHB patients taking brand-name entecavir 1 mg (Baraclude^®) alone or in combination with other nucleotide analogs after the development of antiviral resistance.

Methods

This study was a single-arm prospective study. The primary endpoint was undetectable HBV DNA (<20 IU/mL) at 12 months after switching treatment. The biochemical and serologic responses, virologic breakthrough, and antiviral resistance rates were also evaluated.

Results

Forty CHB patients with undetectable HBV DNA through the brand-name entecavir 1 mg treatment as a mono- or combination therapy after developing antiviral resistance to nucleos(t)ide analogs were enrolled in this study. No significant difference in the HBV DNA non-detection rate was observed between the baseline and 12 months after switching therapy (p=0.324). Furthermore, non-inferiority of the generic entecavir 1 mg to the brand-name entecavir 1 mg with 10% margin in maintaining undetectable HBV DNA was demonstrated (95% CI -2.80 to 8.20%). Similarly, no difference in the biochemical response rate was observed after switching therapy. Serum hepatitis B e antigen loss was observed in 12.5%. No virologic breakthrough was reported.

Conclusions

Generic entecavir 1 mg is a reasonable alternative to the brand-name entecavir 1 mg in antiviral-resistant CHB patients with viral suppression.

Global hepatitis C elimination: an investment framework

WHO has set global targets for the elimination of hepatitis B and hepatitis C as a public health threat by 2030. However, investment in elimination programmes remains low. To help drive political commitment and catalyse domestic and international financing, we have developed a global investment framework for the elimination of hepatitis B and hepatitis C. The global investment framework presented in this Health Policy paper outlines national and international activities that will enable reductions in hepatitis C incidence and mortality, and identifies potential sources of funding and tools to help countries build the economic case for investing in national elimination activities. The goal of this framework is to provide a way for countries, particularly those with minimal resources, to gain the substantial economic benefit and cost savings that come from investing in hepatitis C elimination.

Introduction of birth dose of hepatitis B virus vaccine to the immunization program in Ethiopia: an economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is an important cause of morbidity and mortality with a very high burden in Africa. The risk of developing chronic infection is marked if the infection is acquired perinatally, which is largely preventable through a birth dose of HBV vaccine. We examined the cost-effectiveness of a birth dose of HBV vaccine in a medical setting in Ethiopia.

METHODS

We constructed a decision analytic model with a Markov process to estimate the costs and effects of a birth dose of HBV vaccine (the intervention), compared with current practices in Ethiopia. Current practice is pentavalent vaccination (DPT-HiB-HepB) administered at 6, 10 and 14 weeks after birth. We used disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted to quantify the health benefits while the costs of the intervention were expressed in 2018 USD. Analyses were based on Ethiopian epidemiological, demographic and cost data when available; otherwise we used a thorough literature review, in particular for assigning transition probabilities.

RESULTS

In Ethiopia, where the prevalence of HBV among pregnant women is 5%, adding a birth dose of HBV vaccine would present an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of USD 110 per DALY averted. The estimated ICER compares very favorably with a willingness-to-pay level of 0.31 times gross domestic product per capita (about USD 240 in 2018) in Ethiopia. Our ICER estimates were robust over a wide range of epidemiologic, vaccine effectiveness, vaccine coverage and cost parameter inputs.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on our cost-effectiveness findings, introducing a birth dose of HBV vaccine in Ethiopia would likely be highly cost-effective. Such evidence could help guide policymakers in considering including HBV vaccine into Ethiopia's essential health services package.

Hepatitis B in sub-Saharan Africa-How many patients need therapy?

Hepatitis B is endemic in sub-Saharan Africa with ~60 million people chronically infected. While prevention, through vaccination, is central to elimination strategies, only 11 countries have birth dose vaccination and full vaccine coverage remains at suboptimal levels. Furthermore, to fully realize elimination, those chronically infected need to be identified, assessed for therapy and then linked to care. Given current treatment criteria, the precise quantum of people warranting therapy, according to criteria, is essentially unknown. The issue is further complicated by data to suggest differences in the numbers of people requiring treatment when applying WHO as compared to European Association for the Study of the Liver, EASL, criteria. Optimal determination of treatment eligibility is further hindered by the lack of available tools to adequately assess individual patients. It is conceivable that accurately determining the number of those requiring treatment, given the heterogeneity of hepatitis B in Africa, is difficult. Better studies and data are required. More signifcantly, improved access and availability to the diagnostic tools needed to assess patients in additon to access to drugs are as, if not more important, to achieve elimination.

Enhancing the hepatitis B care cascade in Australia: A cost-effectiveness model

If Australia is to successfully eliminate hepatitis B as a public health threat, it will need to enhance the chronic hepatitis B (CHB) care cascade. This study used a Markov model to assess the impact, cost and cost-effectiveness of scaling up CHB diagnosis, linkage to care and treatment to reach national and international elimination targets for hepatitis B in Australia. Compared to continued current trends, the model calculated the difference in care cascade projection, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), costs and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), of scaling up CHB diagnosis, linkage to care and treatment to reach: (a) Australia's 2022 national targets and (b) the WHO's 2030 global targets. Achieving the national and WHO targets had ICERs of A$13 435 (A$10 236-A$21 165) and A$14 482 (A$13 031-A$25 641) per DALY averted between 2016 and 2030 in Australia, respectively. However, this excluded implementation and demand generation costs. The ICER for the National Strategy and WHO Strategy remained under A$50 000 per DALY averted if Australia spent up to A$328 or A$538 million, respectively, per annum (for 2016-2030) on implementation and demand generation activities. Sensitivity analysis showed that cost-effectiveness was predominately driven by the cost of CHB treatment and influenced by disease progression rates. Hence for Australia to reach the National Hepatitis B Strategy 2022 targets and WHO Strategy 2030 targets, it requires an improvement in the CHB care cascade. We estimated it is cost-effective to spend up to A$328 million or A$538 million per year to reach the National and WHO Strategy targets, respectively.

Estimation of cost-based prices for injectable medicines in the WHO Essential Medicines List

OBJECTIVES

Challenges remain in ensuring universal access to affordable essential medicines. We previously estimated the expected generic prices based on cost of production for medicines in solid oral formulations (ie, capsules or tablets) on the WHO Model List of Essential Medicines (EML). The objectives of this analysis were to estimate cost-based prices for injectable medicines on the EML and to compare these to lowest current prices in England, South Africa, and India.

DESIGN

Data on the cost of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) exported from India were extracted from an online database of customs declarations (www.infodriveindia.com). A formula was designed to use API price data to estimate a cost-based price, by adding the costs of converting API to a finished pharmaceutical product, including the cost of formulation in vials or ampoules, transportation and an average profit margin.

RESULTS

For injectable formulations on the WHO EML, medicines had prices above the estimated cost-based price in 77% of comparisons in England (median ratio 2.54), and 62% in South Africa (median ratio 1.48), while 85% of medicines in India had prices below estimated cost-based price (median ratio 0.30). 19% of injectable medicines in England, 9% in South Africa, and 5% in India had prices more than 10 times the estimated cost-based price. Medicines that appeared in the top 20 by ratio of lowest current price to estimated cost-based price for more than one country included numerous oncology medicines-irinotecan, leuprorelin, ifosfamide, daunorubicin, filgrastim and mesna-as well as valproic acid and ciclosporin.

CONCLUSIONS

Estimating manufacturing costs can identify cases in which profit margins for medicines may be set significantly higher than average.

Accelerating the elimination of viral hepatitis: a Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology Commission

Viral hepatitis is a major public health threat and a leading cause of death worldwide. Annual mortality from viral hepatitis is similar to that of other major infectious diseases such as HIV and tuberculosis. Highly effective prevention measures and treatments have made the global elimination of viral hepatitis a realistic goal, endorsed by all WHO member states. Ambitious targets call for a global reduction in hepatitis-related mortality of 65% and a 90% reduction in new infections by 2030. This Commission draws together a wide range of expertise to appraise the current global situation and to identify priorities globally, regionally, and nationally needed to accelerate progress. We identify 20 heavily burdened countries that account for over 75% of the global burden of viral hepatitis. Key recommendations include a greater focus on national progress towards elimination with support given, if necessary, through innovative financing measures to ensure elimination programmes are fully funded by 2020. In addition to further measures to improve access to vaccination and treatment, greater attention needs to be paid to access to affordable, high-quality diagnostics if testing is to reach the levels needed to achieve elimination goals. Simplified, decentralised models of care removing requirements for specialised prescribing will be required to reach those in need, together with sustained efforts to tackle stigma and discrimination. We identify key examples of the progress that has already been made in many countries throughout the world, demonstrating that sustained and coordinated efforts can be successful in achieving the WHO elimination goals.

Adherence and perceived barriers to oral antiviral therapy for chronic hepatitis B

Background: Globally, of the 248 million people chronically infected with the hepatitis B virus (HBV), 74 million reside in China. Five oral nucleot(s)ide analogs (NUCs) have been approved for the treatment of chronic hepatitis B (CHB) in China.

Objectives: The aims of this study were to determine rates of adherence to NUC therapy in patients with CHB, to identify the self-perceived barriers to adherence, and to examine the factors associated with adherence.

Methods: Questionnaire-based interviews were administered among Chinese patients with CHB at hepatology clinics of a tertiary hospital in the city of Wuhan, China. Adults aged 18 years or older prescribed with NUCs were recruited and interviewed to complete a 27-item questionnaire in a private setting, and adherence was measured using the Morisky Medication Adherence Scale (MMAS-8).

Results: Among 369 participants, only 16.5% had high adherence (score of 8), 32.2% had medium adherence (score of 6 to <8), and 51.2% were measured with low adherence (score of <6). A logistic regression model was used to determine the factors associated with medication adherence. Significant predictors of high adherence consisted of urban residency, non-cirrhotic status, not using prescribed pills other than HBV medications, and reminders from family members. The five most common reasons for skipping NUCs were that medication(s) are expensive (48.7%), forgetfulness (45.1%), have experienced or worry about potential side effects (19.8%), do not want others to know about my medication(s) usage (18.5%), and ran out of pills and do not have time to refill (15.9%).

Conclusions: This study revealed that adherence rates to oral antiviral therapy were far from optimal. This finding should generate public attention, and it would be beneficial for interventional programs to target Chinese patients from rural regions, as well as patients with low socioeconomic status, cirrhosis, and taking multiple medications.

Estimated costs of production and potential prices for the WHO Essential Medicines List

Introduction

There are persistent gaps in access to affordable medicines. The WHO Model List of Essential Medicines (EML) includes medicines considered necessary for functional health systems.

Methods

A generic price estimation formula was developed by reviewing published analyses of cost of production for medicines and assuming manufacture in India, which included costs of formulation, packaging, taxation and a 10% profit margin. Data on per-kilogram prices of active pharmaceutical ingredient exported from India were retrieved from an online database. Estimated prices were compared with the lowest globally available prices for HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis (TB) and malaria medicines, and current prices in the UK, South Africa and India.

Results

The estimation formula had good predictive accuracy for HIV/AIDS, TB and malaria medicines. Estimated generic prices ranged from US$0.01 to US$1.45 per unit, with most in the lower end of this range. Lowest available prices were greater than estimated generic prices for 214/277 (77%) comparable items in the UK, 142/212 (67%) in South Africa and 118/298 (40%) in India. Lowest available prices were more than three times above estimated generic price for 47% of cases compared in the UK and 22% in South Africa.

Conclusion

A wide range of medicines in the EML can be profitably manufactured at very low cost. Most EML medicines are sold in the UK and South Africa at prices significantly higher than those estimated from production costs. Generic price estimation and international price comparisons could empower government price negotiations and support cost-effectiveness calculations.

Cost-effectiveness of community-based screening and treatment for chronic hepatitis B in The Gambia: an economic modelling analysis

BACKGROUND

Despite the high burden of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection in sub-Saharan Africa, absence of widespread screening and poor access to treatment leads to most people remaining undiagnosed until later stages of disease when prognosis is poor and treatment options are limited. We examined the cost-effectiveness of community-based screening and early treatment with antiviral therapy for HBV in The Gambia.

METHODS

In this economic evaluation, we combined a decision tree with a Markov state transition model to compare a screen and treat intervention consisting of adult community-based screening using a hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) rapid test and subsequent HBV antiviral therapy versus current practice, in which there is an absence of publicly provided screening or treatment for HBV. We used data from the PROLIFICA study to parameterise epidemiological, primary screening, and cost information, and other model parameter inputs were obtained from a literature search. Outcome measures were cost per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted; cost per life-year saved; and cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. We calculated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) between current practice and the screen and treat intervention. Costs were assessed from a health provider perspective. Costs (expressed in 2013 US$) and health outcomes were discounted at 3% per year.

FINDINGS

In The Gambia, where the prevalence of HBsAg is 8·8% in people older than 30 years, adult screening and treatment for HBV has an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $540 per DALY averted, $645 per life-year saved, and $511 per QALY gained, compared with current practice. These ICERs are in line with willingness-to-pay levels of one times the country's gross domestic product per capita ($487) per DALY averted, and remain robust over a wide range of epidemiological and cost parameter inputs.

INTERPRETATION

Adult community-based screening and treatment for HBV in The Gambia is likely to be a cost-effective intervention. Higher cost-effectiveness might be achievable with targeted facility-based screening, price reductions of drugs and diagnostics, and integration of HBV screening with other public health interventions.

FUNDING

European Commission.

Hepatitis B Infection, Viral Load and Resistance in HIV-Infected Patients in Mozambique and Zambia

Background

Few data on the virological determinants of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection are available from southern Africa.

Methods

We enrolled consecutive HIV-infected adult patients initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) at two urban clinics in Zambia and four rural clinics in Northern Mozambique between May 2013 and August 2014. HBsAg screening was performed using the Determine^® rapid test. Quantitative real-time PCR and HBV sequencing were performed in HBsAg-positive patients. Risk factors for HBV infection were evaluated using Chi-square and Mann-Whitney tests and associations between baseline characteristics and high level HBV replication explored in multivariable logistic regression.

Results

Seventy-eight of 1,032 participants in Mozambique (7.6%, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 6.1–9.3) and 90 of 797 in Zambia (11.3%, 95% CI: 9.3–13.4) were HBsAg-positive. HBsAg-positive individuals were less likely to be female compared to HBsAg-negative ones (52.3% vs. 66.1%, p<0.001). Among 156 (92.9%) HBsAg-positive patients with an available measurement, median HBV viral load was 13,645 IU/mL (interquartile range: 192–8,617,488 IU/mL) and 77 (49.4%) had high values (>20,000 UI/mL). HBsAg-positive individuals had higher levels of ALT and AST compared to HBsAg-negative ones (both p<0.001). In multivariable analyses, male sex (adjusted odds ratio: 2.59, 95% CI: 1.22–5.53) and CD4 cell count below 200/μl (2.58, 1.20–5.54) were associated with high HBV DNA. HBV genotypes A1 (58.8%) and E (38.2%) were most prevalent. Four patients had probable resistance to lamivudine and/or entecavir.

Conclusion

One half of HBsAg-positive patients demonstrated high HBV viremia, supporting the early initiation of tenofovir-containing ART in HIV/HBV-coinfected adults.

Target prices for mass production of tyrosine kinase inhibitors for global cancer treatment

OBJECTIVE

To calculate sustainable generic prices for 4 tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs).

BACKGROUND

TKIs have proven survival benefits in the treatment of several cancers, including chronic myeloid leukaemia, breast, liver, renal and lung cancer. However, current high prices are a barrier to treatment. Mass production of low-cost generic antiretrovirals has led to over 13 million people being on HIV/AIDS treatment worldwide. This analysis estimates target prices for generic TKIs, assuming similar methods of mass production.

METHODS

Four TKIs with patent expiry dates in the next 5 years were selected for analysis: imatinib, erlotinib, lapatinib and sorafenib. Chemistry, dosing, published data on per-kilogram pricing for commercial transactions of active pharmaceutical ingredient (API), and quotes from manufacturers were used to estimate costs of production. Analysis included costs of excipients, formulation, packaging, shipping and a 50% profit margin. Target prices were compared with current prices. Global numbers of patients eligible for treatment with each TKI were estimated.

RESULTS

API costs per kg were $347-$746 for imatinib, $2470 for erlotinib, $4671 for lapatinib, and $3000 for sorafenib. Basing on annual dose requirements, costs of formulation/packaging and a 50% profit margin, target generic prices per person-year were $128-$216 for imatinib, $240 for erlotinib, $1450 for sorafenib, and $4020 for lapatinib. Over 1 million people would be newly eligible to start treatment with these TKIs annually.

CONCLUSIONS

Mass generic production of several TKIs could achieve treatment prices in the range of $128-$4020 per person-year, versus current US prices of $75161-$139,138. Generic TKIs could allow significant savings and scaling-up of treatment globally, for over 1 million eligible patients.

Health disparities in liver disease in sub-Saharan Africa

Disparities in health reflect the differences in the incidence, prevalence, burden of disease and access to care determined by socio-economic and environmental factors. With liver disease, these disparities are exacerbated by a combination of limited awareness and preventable causes of morbidity and mortality in addition to the diagnostic and management costs. Sub-Saharan Africa, comprising 11% of the world's population, disproportionately has 24% of the global disease burden, yet allocates <1% of global spend on health. It has 3% of the global healthcare workforce with a mean of 0.8 healthcare workers per 1000 population. Barriers to healthcare access are many and compounded by limited civil registration data, socio-economic inequalities, discrepancies in private and public healthcare services and geopolitical strife. The UN 2014 report on the Millennium Development Goals suggest that sub-Saharan Africa will probably not meet several goals, however with HIV/AIDS and Malaria (goal 6), many successes have been achieved. A 2010 Global Burden of Disease study demonstrated that cirrhosis mortality in sub-Saharan Africa doubled between 1980 and 2010. Aetiologies included hepatitis B (34%), hepatitis C (17%), alcohol (18%) and unknown in 31%. Hepatitis B, C and alcohol accounted for 47, 23 and 20% of hepatocellular carcinoma respectively. In 10%, the underlying aetiology was not known. Liver disease reflects the broader disparities in healthcare in sub-Saharan Africa. However, many of these challenges are not insurmountable as vaccines and new therapies could comprehensively deal with the burden of viral hepatitis. Access to and affordability of therapeutics remains the major barrier.