Childhood mortality during and after acute illness in Africa and south Asia: a prospective cohort study

Prediction models for post-discharge mortality among under-five children with suspected sepsis in Uganda: A multicohort analysis

In many low-income countries, over five percent of hospitalized children die following hospital discharge. The lack of available tools to identify those at risk of post-discharge mortality has limited the ability to make progress towards improving outcomes. We aimed to develop algorithms designed to predict post-discharge mortality among children admitted with suspected sepsis. Four prospective cohort studies of children in two age groups (0-6 and 6-60 months) were conducted between 2012-2021 in six Ugandan hospitals. Prediction models were derived for six-months post-discharge mortality, based on candidate predictors collected at admission, each with a maximum of eight variables, and internally validated using 10-fold cross-validation. 8,810 children were enrolled: 470 (5.3%) died in hospital; 257 (7.7%) and 233 (4.8%) post-discharge deaths occurred in the 0-6-month and 6-60-month age groups, respectively. The primary models had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.77 (95%CI 0.74-0.80) for 0-6-month-olds and 0.75 (95%CI 0.72-0.79) for 6-60-month-olds; mean AUROCs among the 10 cross-validation folds were 0.75 and 0.73, respectively. Calibration across risk strata was good: Brier scores were 0.07 and 0.04, respectively. The most important variables included anthropometry and oxygen saturation. Additional variables included: illness duration, jaundice-age interaction, and a bulging fontanelle among 0-6-month-olds; and prior admissions, coma score, temperature, age-respiratory rate interaction, and HIV status among 6-60-month-olds. Simple prediction models at admission with suspected sepsis can identify children at risk of post-discharge mortality. Further external validation is recommended for different contexts. Models can be digitally integrated into existing processes to improve peri-discharge care as children transition from the hospital to the community.

Malnutrition enteropathy in Zambian and Zimbabwean children with severe acute malnutrition: A multi-arm randomized phase II trial

Malnutrition underlies almost half of all child deaths globally. Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM) carries unacceptable mortality, particularly if accompanied by infection or medical complications, including enteropathy. We evaluated four interventions for malnutrition enteropathy in a multi-centre phase II multi-arm trial in Zambia and Zimbabwe and completed in 2021. The purpose of this trial was to identify therapies which could be taken forward into phase III trials. Children of either sex were eligible for inclusion if aged 6-59 months and hospitalised with SAM (using WHO definitions: WLZ <-3, and/or MUAC <11.5 cm, and/or bilateral pedal oedema), with written, informed consent from the primary caregiver. We randomised 125 children hospitalised with complicated SAM to 14 days treatment with (i) bovine colostrum (n = 25), (ii) N-acetyl glucosamine (n = 24), (iii) subcutaneous teduglutide (n = 26), (iv) budesonide (n = 25) or (v) standard care only (n = 25). The primary endpoint was a composite of faecal biomarkers (myeloperoxidase, neopterin, α1-antitrypsin). Laboratory assessments, but not treatments, were blinded. Per-protocol analysis used ANCOVA, adjusted for baseline biomarker value, sex, oedema, HIV status, diarrhoea, weight-for-length Z-score, and study site, with pre-specified significance of P < 0.10. Of 143 children screened, 125 were randomised. Teduglutide reduced the primary endpoint of biomarkers of mucosal damage (effect size -0.89 (90% CI: -1.69,-0.10) P = 0.07), while colostrum (-0.58 (-1.4, 0.23) P = 0.24), N-acetyl glucosamine (-0.20 (-1.01, 0.60) P = 0.67), and budesonide (-0.50 (-1.33, 0.33) P = 0.32) had no significant effect. All interventions proved safe. This work suggests that treatment of enteropathy may be beneficial in children with complicated malnutrition. The trial was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov with the identifier NCT03716115.

Childhood growth during recovery from acute illness in Africa and South Asia: a secondary analysis of the childhood acute illness and nutrition (CHAIN) prospective cohort

Background

Growth faltering is well-recognized during acute childhood illness and growth acceleration during convalescence, with or without nutritional therapy, may occur. However, there are limited recent data on growth after hospitalization in low- and middle-income countries.

Methods

We evaluated growth following hospitalization among children aged 2-23 months in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Between November 2016 and January 2019, children were recruited at hospital admission and classified as: not-wasted (NW), moderately-wasted (MW), severely-wasted (SW), or having nutritional oedema (NO). We describe earlier (discharge to 45-days) and later (45- to 180-days) changes in length-for-age [LAZ], weight-for-age [WAZ], mid-upper arm circumference [MUACZ], weight-for-length [WLZ] z-scores, and clinical, nutritional, and socioeconomic correlates.

Findings

We included 2472 children who survived to 180-days post-discharge: NW, 960 (39%); MW, 572 (23%); SW, 682 (28%); and NO, 258 (10%). During 180-days, LAZ decreased in NW (-0.27 [-0.36, -0.19]) and MW (-0.23 [-0.34, -0.11]). However, all groups increased WAZ (NW, 0.21 [95% CI: 0.11, 0.32]; MW, 0.57 [0.44, 0.71]; SW, 1.0 [0.88, 1.1] and NO, 1.3 [1.1, 1.5]) with greatest gains in the first 45-days. Of children underweight (<-2 WAZ) at discharge, 66% remained underweight at 180-days. Lower WAZ post-discharge was associated with age-inappropriate nutrition, adverse caregiver characteristics, small size at birth, severe or moderate anaemia, and chronic conditions, while lower LAZ was additionally associated with household-level exposures but not with chronic medical conditions.

Interpretation

Underweight and poor linear growth mostly persisted after an acute illness. Beyond short-term nutritional supplementation, improving linear growth post-discharge may require broader individual and family support.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates FoundationOPP1131320; National Institute for Health ResearchNIHR201813.

Identifying neonates at risk for post-discharge mortality in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, and Monrovia, Liberia: Derivation and internal validation of a novel risk assessment tool

INTRODUCTION

The immediate period after hospital discharge carries a large burden of childhood mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. Our objective was to derive and internally validate a risk assessment tool to identify neonates discharged from the neonatal ward at risk for 60-day post-discharge mortality.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective observational cohort study of neonates discharged from Muhimbili National Hospital in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, and John F Kennedy Medical Centre in Monrovia, Liberia. Research staff called caregivers to ascertain vital status up to 60 days after discharge. We conducted multivariable logistic regression analyses with best subset selection to identify socioeconomic, demographic, clinical, and anthropometric factors associated with post-discharge mortality. We used adjusted log coefficients to assign points to each variable and internally validated our tool with bootstrap validation with 500 repetitions.

RESULTS

There were 2344 neonates discharged and 2310 (98.5%) had post-discharge outcomes available. The median (IQR) age at discharge was 8 (4, 15) days; 1238 (53.6%) were male. In total, 71 (3.1%) died during follow-up (26.8% within 7 days of discharge). Leaving against medical advice (adjusted OR [aOR] 5.62, 95% CI 2.40 to 12.10) and diagnosis of meconium aspiration (aOR 6.98, 95% CI 1.69 to 21.70) conferred the greatest risk for post-discharge mortality. The risk assessment tool included nine variables (total possible score=63) and had an optimism corrected area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.77 (95% CI 0.75 to 0.80). A score of ≥6 was most optimal (sensitivity 68.3% [95% CI 64.8% to 71.5%], specificity 72.1% [95% CI 71.5% to 72.7%]).

CONCLUSIONS

A small number of factors predicted all-cause, 60-day mortality after discharge from neonatal wards in Tanzania and Liberia. After external validation, this risk assessment tool may facilitate clinical decision making for eligibility for discharge and the direction of resources to follow-up high risk neonates.

Micronutrient status in children aged 6-59 months with severe wasting and/or nutritional edema: implications for nutritional rehabilitation formulations

Undernutrition remains a global struggle and is associated with almost 45% of deaths in children younger than 5 years. Despite advances in management of severe wasting (though less so for nutritional edema), full and sustained recovery remains elusive. Children with severe wasting and/or nutritional edema (also commonly referred to as severe acute malnutrition and part of the umbrella term "severe malnutrition") continue to have a high mortality rate. This suggests a likely multifactorial etiology that may include micronutrient deficiency. Micronutrients are currently provided in therapeutic foods at levels based on expert opinion, with few supportive studies of high quality having been conducted. This narrative review looks at the knowledge base on micronutrient deficiencies in children aged 6-59 months who have severe wasting and/or nutritional edema, in addition to highlighting areas where further research is warranted (See "Future Directions" section).

Prevalence and Correlates of Stunting among a High-Risk Population of Kenyan Children Recently Hospitalized for Acute Illnesses

Stunting (length/height-for-age z-score < -2) is associated with significant morbidity and mortality among children under 5 years of age in sub-Saharan Africa. Children who are stunted and recently hospitalized for acute illness may be at particularly elevated risk for post-discharge mortality. In this cross-sectional analysis, we measured the prevalence of stunting at hospital discharge and identified host, caregiver, and environmental correlates of stunting among children aged 1-59 months in Western Kenya enrolled in the Toto Bora Trial. Child age- and site-adjusted prevalence ratios were estimated using Poisson regression. Of the 1,394 children included in this analysis, 23% were stunted at hospital discharge. Older children (12-23 months and 24-59 months versus 0-5 months) had a higher prevalence of stunting (adjusted prevalence ratio [aPR]: 1.58; 95% CI: 1.04-2.36 and aPR: 1.59; 95% CI: 1.08-2.34, respectively). HIV-exposed, uninfected children (aPR: 1.94; 95% CI: 1.39-2.70), children with HIV infection (aPR: 2.73; 95% CI: 1.45-5.15), and those who were never exclusively breastfed in early life (aPR 2.51; 95% CI: 1.35-4.67) were more likely to be stunted. Caregiver education (primary school or less) and unimproved sanitation (pit latrine without slab floor or open defecation) were associated with increased risk of stunting (aPR: 1.94; 95% CI: 1.54-2.44; aPR: 1.99; 95% CI: 1.20-3.31; aPR: 3.57; 95% CI: 1.77-7.21, respectively). Hospital discharge represents an important opportunity for both identifying and delivering targeted interventions for nutrition-associated poor outcomes among a high-risk population of children.

Risk and rates of hospitalisation in young children: A prospective study of a South African birth cohort

Children in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are disproportionately affected by morbidity and mortality. There is also a growing vulnerable population of children who are HIV-exposed uninfected (HEU). Understanding reasons and risk factors for early-life child hospitalisation will help optimise interventions to improve health outcomes. We investigated hospitalisations from birth to two years in a South African birth cohort study. Mother-child pairs in the Drakenstein Child Health Study were followed from birth to two years with active surveillance for hospital admission and investigation of aetiology and outcome. Incidence, duration, cause, and factors associated with child hospitalisation were investigated, and compared between HEU and HIV-unexposed uninfected (HUU) children. Of 1136 children (247 HEU; 889 HUU), 314 (28%) children were hospitalised in 430 episodes despite >98% childhood vaccination coverage. The highest hospitalisation rate was from 0-6 months, decreasing thereafter; 20% (84/430) of hospitalisations occurred in neonates at birth. Amongst hospitalisations subsequent to discharge after birth, 83% (288/346) had an infectious cause; lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) was the most common cause (49%;169/346) with respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) responsible for 31% of LRTIs; from 0-6 months, RSV-LRTI accounted for 22% (36/164) of all-cause hospitalisations. HIV exposure was associated with increased incidence rates of hospitalisation in infants (IRR 1.63 [95% CI 1.29-2.05]) and longer hospital admission (p = 0.004). Prematurity (HR 2.82 [95% CI 2.28-3.49]), delayed infant vaccinations (HR 1.43 [95% CI 1.12-1.82]), or raised maternal HIV viral load in HEU infants were risk factors for hospitalisation; breastfeeding was protective (HR 0.69 [95% CI 0.53-0.90]). In conclusion, children in SSA experience high rates of hospitalisation in early life. Infectious causes, especially RSV-LRTI, underly most hospital admissions. HEU children are at greater risk of hospitalisation in infancy compared to HUU children. Available strategies such as promoting breastfeeding, timely vaccination, and optimising antenatal maternal HIV care should be strengthened. New interventions to prevent RSV may have additional impact in reducing hospitalisation.

Pediatric post-discharge mortality in resource-poor countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Under-five mortality remains concentrated in resource-poor countries. Post-discharge mortality is becoming increasingly recognized as a significant contributor to overall child mortality. With a substantial recent expansion of research and novel data synthesis methods, this study aims to update the current evidence base by providing a more nuanced understanding of the burden and associated risk factors of pediatric post-discharge mortality after acute illness.

Methods

Eligible studies published between January 1, 2017 and January 31, 2023, were retrieved using MEDLINE, Embase, and CINAHL databases. Studies published before 2017 were identified in a previous review and added to the total pool of studies. Only studies from countries with low or low-middle Socio-Demographic Index with a post-discharge observation period greater than seven days were included. Risk of bias was assessed using a modified version of the Joanna Briggs Institute critical appraisal tool for prevalence studies. Studies were grouped by patient population, and 6-month post-discharge mortality rates were quantified by random-effects meta-analysis. Secondary outcomes included post-discharge mortality relative to in-hospital mortality, pooled risk factor estimates, and pooled post-discharge Kaplan-Meier survival curves. PROSPERO study registration: #CRD42022350975.

Findings

Of 1963 articles screened, 42 eligible articles were identified and combined with 22 articles identified in the previous review, resulting in 64 total articles. These articles represented 46 unique patient cohorts and included a total of 105,560 children. For children admitted with a general acute illness, the pooled risk of mortality six months post-discharge was 4.4% (95% CI: 3.5%-5.4%, I2 = 94.2%, n = 11 studies, 34,457 children), and the pooled in-hospital mortality rate was 5.9% (95% CI: 4.2%-7.7%, I2 = 98.7%, n = 12 studies, 63,307 children). Among disease subgroups, severe malnutrition (12.2%, 95% CI: 6.2%-19.7%, I2 = 98.2%, n = 10 studies, 7760 children) and severe anemia (6.4%, 95% CI: 4.2%-9.1%, I2 = 93.3%, n = 9 studies, 7806 children) demonstrated the highest 6-month post-discharge mortality estimates. Diarrhea demonstrated the shortest median time to death (3.3 weeks) and anemia the longest (8.9 weeks). Most significant risk factors for post-discharge mortality included unplanned discharges, severe malnutrition, and HIV seropositivity.

Interpretation

Pediatric post-discharge mortality rates remain high in resource-poor settings, especially among children admitted with malnutrition or anemia. Global health strategies must prioritize this health issue by dedicating resources to research and policy innovation.

Funding

No specific funding was received.

Strengthening the Diagnosis and Treatment of Malnutrition Through Increased Nurse Involvement: A Quality Improvement Project From Pediatric Wards in Mozambique

BACKGROUND

Childhood acute malnutrition continues to be a serious health problem in many low-resource settings in Africa. On pediatric wards in Mozambique, missed opportunities for timely diagnosis and treatment of malnutrition may lead to poor health outcomes. To improve inpatient nutritional care, a quality improvement (QI) project was implemented that aimed to engage pediatric nurses in inpatient malnutrition diagnosis and treatment.

METHODS

In 2 Mozambican referral hospitals, for 6 months, the Plan-Do-Study-Act framework for QI was implemented to identify key drivers of the following measures: having complete anthropometric evaluation documented at admission, 3 or more weight measurements per hospitalization week, documentation of nutritional therapy for eligible patients, and documentation of referral for outpatient nutritional rehabilitation after discharge. Clinical data were abstracted from hospital charts and entered into an EpiInfo database, including a 3-month observation period after the project, and analyzed retrospectively.

RESULTS

A total of 2,208 children from wards other than malnutrition were included in the analysis. Complete anthropometric evaluation at admission improved from 24.4% 2 months before the QI project to 80.1% during and 75.2% in the 3 months after the project (P<.001). The percentage of patients with 3 or more weight measurements per hospitalization week rose from 22.3% to 82.8% during and 75.0% after the project (P<.001). Documentation of nutritional therapy increased from 58.8% before to 67.1% during and 70.6% after the project (P=.54), and documentation of referral for outpatient nutritional rehabilitation after discharge decreased from 55.9% to 54.9% during and increased to 70.6% after the project, (P<.001).

CONCLUSION

Nurse engagement may lead to important advancements in the diagnosis and treatment of acute malnutrition in pediatric wards other than malnutrition in Mozambique. Task-sharing, particularly nurse engagement, in combination with QI methodology, may be considered for wards in similar settings with a high burden of malnutrition.

Risk factors for mortality in an African pediatric emergency department: case of Sourô Sanou Hospital, a prospective, cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Childhood mortality rates remain high in sub-Saharan Africa. This study aimed to assess the causes and associated factors of pediatric emergency mortality at the Sourô Sanou University Hospital of Bobo-Dioulasso.

METHODOLOGY

This was a cross-sectional study with prospective collection from June to August 2020. We documented and analyzed demographic and clinical characteristics by means or proportions. Logistic regression was performed to identify the factors associated with childhood mortality.

RESULTS

From 618 pediatric patients admitted to pediatric emergency unit, 80 (12.9%) were documented as death outcomes. The mean age was 34.10 ± 36.38 months. The male sex represented 51.25%. The main diagnoses were severe malaria (61.25%), acute gastroenteritis (11.25%) and pneumonia (10%); 48.75% of the patients were malnourished and only 55% were fully immunized. The average length of hospitalization was 2.73 ± 3.03 days. Mortality was a strongly significant association with late come to the emergency unit (AOR = 1.11, CI = 1.04-1.18), young maternal age (AOR = 0.95, CI = 0.92-0.99) and incomplete vaccination (AOR = 1.94, CI = 1.13-3.31).

CONCLUSION

The in-hospital mortality rate was 12.94%; younger maternal age, delay in consultation, unimmunized or incompletely immunized status and shorter hospital stays were significantly associated with death.

Evaluating blood culture collection practice in children hospitalized with acute illness at a tertiary hospital in Malawi

BACKGROUND

Blood culture collection practice in low-resource settings where routine blood culture collection is available has not been previously described.

METHODOLOGY

We conducted a secondary descriptive analysis of children aged 2-23 months enrolled in the Malawi Childhood Acute Illness and Nutrition (CHAIN) study, stratified by whether an admission blood culture had been undertaken and by nutritional status. Chi-square test was used to compare the differences between groups.

RESULTS

A total of 347 children were included, of whom 161 (46%) had a blood culture collected. Children who had a blood culture collected, compared to those who did not, were more likely to present with sepsis (43% vs. 20%, p < 0.001), gastroenteritis (43% vs. 26%, p < 0.001), fever (86% vs. 73%, p = 0.004), and with poor feeding/weight loss (30% vs. 18%, p = 0.008). In addition, hospital stay in those who had a blood culture was, on average, 2 days longer (p = 0.019). No difference in mortality was observed between those who did and did not have a blood culture obtained.

CONCLUSION

Blood culture collection was more frequent in children with sepsis and gastroenteritis, but was not associated with mortality. In low-resource settings, developing criteria for blood culture based on risk factors rather than clinician judgement may better utilize the existing resources.

Inflammation: the driver of poor outcomes among children with severe acute malnutrition?

Severe acute malnutrition (SAM) is the most life-threatening form of undernutrition and underlies at least 10% of all deaths among children younger than 5 years in low-income countries. SAM is a complex, multisystem disease, with physiological perturbations observed in conjunction with the loss of lean mass, including structural and functional changes in many organ systems. Despite the high mortality burden, predominantly due to infections, the underlying pathogenic pathways remain poorly understood. Intestinal and systemic inflammation is heightened in children with SAM. Chronic inflammation and its consequent immunomodulation may explain the increased morbidity and mortality from infections in children with SAM, both during hospitalization and in the longer term after discharge. Recognition of the role of inflammation in SAM is critical in considering new therapeutic targets in this disease, which has not seen a transformational approach to treatment for several decades. This review highlights the central role of inflammation in the wide-ranging pathophysiology of SAM, as well as identifying potential interventions that have biological plausibility based on evidence from other inflammatory syndromes.

Verbal Autopsy to Assess Postdischarge Mortality in Children With Suspected Sepsis in Uganda

BACKGROUND

Reducing child mortality in low-income countries is constrained by a lack of vital statistics. In the absence of such data, verbal autopsies provide an acceptable method to determining attributable causes of death. The objective was to assess potential causes of pediatric postdischarge mortality in children younger than age 5 years (under-5) originally admitted for suspected sepsis using verbal autopsies.

METHODS

Secondary analysis of verbal autopsy data from children admitted to 6 hospitals across Uganda from July 2017 to March 2020. Structured verbal autopsy interviews were conducted for all deaths within 6 months after discharge. Two physicians independently classified a primary cause of death, up to 4 alternative causes, and up to 5 contributing conditions using the Start-Up Mortality List, with discordance resolved by consensus.

RESULTS

Verbal autopsies were completed for 361 (98.6%) of the 366 (5.9%) children who died among 6191 discharges (median admission age: 5.4 months [interquartile range, 1.8-16.7]; median time to mortality: 28 days [interquartile range, 9-74]). Most deaths (62.3%) occurred in the community. Leading primary causes of death, assigned in 356 (98.6%) of cases, were pneumonia (26.2%), sepsis (22.1%), malaria (8.5%), and diarrhea (7.9%). Common contributors to death were malnutrition (50.5%) and anemia (25.7%). Reviewers were less confident in their causes of death for neonates than older children (P < .05).

CONCLUSIONS

Postdischarge mortality frequently occurred in the community in children admitted for suspected sepsis in Uganda. Analyses of the probable causes for these deaths using verbal autopsies suggest potential areas for interventions, focused on early detection of infections, as well as prevention and treatment of underlying contributors such as malnutrition and anemia.

Evaluating the Validity of the Responses to Illness Severity Quantification Score to Discriminate Illness Severity and Level of Care Transitions in Hospitalized Children with Severe Acute Malnutrition

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the validity of the Responses to Illness Severity Quantification (RISQ) score to discriminate illness severity and transitions between levels of care during hospitalization.

STUDY DESIGN

A prospective observational study conducted in Maiduguri, Nigeria, enrolled inpatients aged 1-59 months with severe acute malnutrition. The primary outcome was the RISQ score associated with the patient state. Heart and respiratory rate, oxygen saturation, respiratory effort, oxygen use, temperature, and level of consciousness are summed to calculate the RISQ score. Five states were defined by levels of care and hospital discharge outcome. The states were classified hierarchically, reflecting illness severity: hospital mortality was the most severe state, then intensive care unit (ICU), care in the stabilization phase (SP), care in the rehabilitation phase (RP), and lowest severity, survival at hospital discharge. A multistate statistical model examined performance of the RISQ score in predicting clinical states and transitions.

RESULTS

Of 903 children enrolled (mean age, 14.6 months), 63 (7%) died. Mean RISQ scores during care in each phase were 3.5 (n = 2265) in the ICU, 1.7 (n = 6301) in the SP, and 1.5 (n = 2377) in the RP. Mean scores and HRs for a 3-point change in score at transitions: ICU to death, 6.9 (HR, 1.80); SP to ICU, 2.8 (HR, 2.00); ICU to SP, 2.0 (HR, 0.5); and RP to discharge, 1.4 (HR, 0.91).

CONCLUSIONS

The RISQ score can discriminate between points of escalation or de-escalation of care and reflects illness severity in hospitalized children with severe acute malnutrition. Evaluation of clinical implementation and demonstration of benefit will be important before widespread adoption.

Family MUAC supported by a two-way SMS platform for identifying children with wasting: the Mama Aweza randomised controlled trial

Background

Effective methods of preventing and identifying childhood wasting are required to achieve global child health goals. Family mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) programs train caregivers to screen their child for wasting with MUAC tapes. We assessed the effectiveness of a two-way short message service (SMS) platform (referred to as the Maternally Administered Malnutrition Monitoring System [MAMMS]) in western Kenya.

Methods

In this individual-level randomised controlled trial in two rural countries in western Kenya, children (aged 5-12 months) were randomly allocated (1:1) to receive either standard care (SOC) or MAMMS. Randomisation method was permuted-block randomisation with a block size of 10. Eligible participants were children attending maternal child health clinics in the two counties whom had a MUAC between 12.5 and 14.0 cm. The MAMMS group received two MUAC tapes and weekly SMS reminders to screen their child's MUAC. The SOC group received routine community health volunteer services and additional quarterly visits from the study team. The primary analysis used a cox proportional hazards model to compare SOC and MAMMS time-to-diagnosis of wasting (MUAC <12.5 cm) confirmed by a health professional during 6-months follow-up. Secondary outcomes were days from enrolment to treatment initiation among children with wasting, proportion of all children with wasting who were identified by the two approaches (treatment coverage), mean MUAC at treatment initiation, and duration of wasting treatment. This trial was registered on ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03967015.

Findings

Between August 1, 2019 and January 31, 2022, 1200 children were enrolled, among whom the incidence of confirmed wasting was 37% lower in the MAMMS group (hazard ratio: 0.63, 95% CI: 0.42-0.94, p = 0.022). Among children with wasting, the median number of days-to-diagnosis was similar between study groups (MAMMS: 63 days [interquartile range (IQR): 23-92], SOC: 58 days [IQR: 22-94]). Treatment coverage in the MAMMS group was 83.3% (95% CI: 39.9-100.0) while coverage in the SOC group was 55.6% (95% CI: 22.3-88.9%, p = 0.300). Treatment duration and mean MUAC at treatment initiation were similar between groups.

Interpretation

Family MUAC supported by SMS was associated with a 37% reduction in wasting among young children. Empowering caregivers to monitor their child's nutritional status at home may prevent a substantial proportion of moderate wasting.

Funding

Thrasher Research Foundation and Pamela and Evan Fowler.

Transitions from hospital to home: A mixed methods study to evaluate pediatric discharges in Uganda

The World Health Organization (WHO) Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI) guidelines recognize the importance of discharge planning to ensure continuation of care at home and appropriate follow-up. However, insufficient attention has been paid to post discharge planning in many hospitals contributing to poor implementation. To understand the reasons for suboptimal discharge, we evaluated the pediatric discharge process from hospital admission through the transition to care within the community in Ugandan hospitals. This mixed methods prospective study enrolled 92 study participants in three phases: patient journey mapping for 32 admitted children under-5 years of age with suspected or proven infection, discharge process mapping with 24 pediatric healthcare workers, and focus group discussions with 36 primary caregivers and fathers of discharged children. Data were descriptively and thematically analyzed. We found that the typical discharge process is often not centered around the needs of the child and family. Discharge planning often does not begin until immediately prior to discharge and generally does not include caregiver input. Discharge education and counselling are generally limited, rarely involves the father, and does not focus significantly on post-discharge care or follow-up. Delays in the discharge process itself occur at multiple points, including while awaiting a physical discharge order and then following a discharge order, mainly with billing or transportation issues. Poor peri-discharge care is a significant barrier to optimizing health outcomes among children in Uganda. Process improvements including initiation of early discharge planning, improved communication between healthcare workers and caregivers, as well as an increased focus on post-discharge care, are key to ensuring safe transitions from facility-based care to home-based care among children recovering from severe illness.

Post-Discharge Risk of Mortality in Children under 5 Years of Age in Western Kenya: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Limited evidence suggests that children in sub-Saharan Africa hospitalized with all-cause severe anemia or severe acute malnutrition (SAM) are at high risk of dying in the first few months after discharge. We aimed to compare the risks of post-discharge mortality by health condition among hospitalized children in an area with high malaria transmission in western Kenya. We conducted a retrospective cohort study among recently discharged children aged < 5 years using mortality data from a health and demographic surveillance system that included household and pediatric in-hospital surveillance. Cox regression was used to compare post-discharge mortality. Between 2008 and 2013, overall in-hospital mortality was 2.8% (101/3,639). The mortality by 6 months after discharge (primary outcome) was 6.2% (159/2,556) and was highest in children with SAM (21.6%), followed by severe anemia (15.5%), severe pneumonia (5.6%), "other conditions" (5.6%), and severe malaria (0.7%). Overall, the 6-month post-discharge mortality in children hospitalized with SAM (hazard ratio [HR] = 3.95, 2.60-6.00, P < 0.001) or severe anemia (HR = 2.55, 1.74-3.71, P < 0.001) was significantly higher than that in children without these conditions. Severe malaria was associated with lower 6-month post-discharge mortality than children without severe malaria (HR = 0.33, 0.21-0.53, P < 0.001). The odds of dying by 6 months after discharge tended to be higher than during the in-hospital period for all children, except for those admitted with severe malaria. The first 6 months after discharge is a high-risk period for mortality among children admitted with severe anemia and SAM in western Kenya. Strategies to address this risk period are urgently needed.

A protocol for a proof-of-concept randomized control trial testing increased protein quantity and quality in ready-to-use therapeutic food in improving linear growth among 6-23-month-old children with severe wasting in Malawi

INTRODUCTION

Ready-to-use therapeutic foods (RUTFs) have successfully promoted recovery from severe wasting and increased treatment coverage. However, RUTFs do not sufficiently improve linear growth, leaving many survivors of severe wasting at risk of persistent stunting, which is associated with high mortality risk, poor child development and non-communicable diseases in adulthood. High protein quantity and quality can stimulate linear growth.

AIM

The trial aims to assess whether higher-protein-RUTF leads to higher concentrations of markers of linear growth compared to standard RUTF among 6-23 months old children with severe wasting.

METHODS

We designed a higher protein quantity and quality RUTF for a proof-of-concept (PoC) double-blind randomized controlled trial.

OUTCOMES

The primary outcome is a change in insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1), a hormone positively associated with linear growth after four weeks of treatment. Secondary outcomes include changes in ponderal and linear growth and in body composition from baseline to eight weeks later; plasma amino acid profile at four weeks; acceptability and safety.

IMPLICATIONS

These findings will help in informing the potential impact of increased protein in RUTF on linear growth when treating severe wasting towards conducting a larger clinical trial.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

The trial has been registered on clinicaltrial.gov (NCT05737472).

Plasma proteomic signatures of enteric permeability among hospitalized and community children in Kenya and Pakistan

We aimed to establish if enteric permeability was associated with similar biological processes in children recovering from hospitalization and relatively healthy children in the community. Extreme gradient boosted models predicting the lactulose-rhamnose ratio (LRR), a biomarker of enteric permeability, using 7,500 plasma proteins and 34 fecal biomarkers of enteric infection among 89 hospitalized and 60 community children aged 2-23 months were built. The R2 values were calculated in test sets. The models performed better among community children (R2: 0.27 [min-max: 0.19, 0.53]) than hospitalized children (R2: 0.07 [min-max: 0.03, 0.11]). In the community, LRR was associated with biomarkers of humoral antimicrobial and cellular lipopolysaccharide responses and inversely associated with anti-inflammatory and innate immunological responses. Among hospitalized children, the selected biomarkers had few shared functions. This suggests enteric permeability among community children was associated with a host response to pathogens, but this association was not observed among hospitalized children.

Mortality by Admission Diagnosis in Children 1-60 Months of Age Admitted to a Tertiary Care Government Hospital in Malawi

Diagnosis-specific mortality is a measure of pediatric healthcare quality that has been incompletely studied in sub-Saharan African hospitals. Identifying the mortality rates of multiple conditions at the same hospital may allow leaders to better target areas for intervention. In this secondary analysis of routinely collected data, we investigated hospital mortality by admission diagnosis in children aged 1-60 months admitted to a tertiary care government referral hospital in Malawi between October 2017 and June 2020. The mortality rate by diagnosis was calculated as the number of deaths among children admitted with a diagnosis divided by the number of children admitted with the same diagnosis. There were 24,452 admitted children eligible for analysis. Discharge disposition was recorded in 94.2% of patients, and 4.0% (N = 977) died in the hospital. The most frequent diagnoses among admissions and deaths were pneumonia/bronchiolitis, malaria, and sepsis. The highest mortality rates by diagnosis were found in surgical conditions (16.1%; 95% CI: 12.0-20.3), malnutrition (15.8%; 95% CI: 13.6-18.0), and congenital heart disease (14.5%; 95% CI: 9.9-19.2). Diagnoses with the highest mortality rates were alike in their need for significant human and material resources for medical care. Improving mortality in this population will require sustained capacity building in conjunction with targeted quality improvement initiatives against both common and deadly diseases.

Inflammatory profiles in febrile children with moderate and severe malnutrition presenting at-hospital in Uganda are associated with increased mortality

BACKGROUND

Children in Africa carry a disproportionate burden of malnutrition and infectious disease. Together, malnutrition and infection are major contributors to global child mortality; however, their collective impact on immune activation are not well described.

METHODS

This was a secondary analysis of a prospective cohort study of children hospitalized with acute febrile illness at a single centre in Uganda. We investigated the association between malnutrition (determined using the mid-upper arm circumference, MUAC), immune activation (as measured by inflammatory markers IL-6, IL-8, CXCL10, CHI3L1, sTNFR1, Cystatin C, granzyme B, and sTREM-1), and mortality.

FINDINGS

Of the 1850 children eligible for this secondary analysis, 71 (3.8%) and 145 (11.7%) presented with severe acute malnutrition (SAM, MUAC <115 mm) and moderate malnutrition (MUAC 115 to < 125 mm), respectively. SAM was associated with increased concentrations of CHI3L1, sTNFR1, Cystatin C, and sTREM-1, and decreased concentrations of CXCL10 and granzyme B, even after controlling for age, sex, and disease severity at presentation. There were 77 deaths (4.2%). SAM was associated with a 9.2-fold (95% CI 4.8-46), 17-fold (95% CI 3.9-74), and 13-fold (95% CI 3.5-52) increased odds of death in children with pneumonia, malaria, and diarrheal illness, respectively. Mediation analysis implicated sTREM-1 and CHI3L1 in the effect of SAM on mortality, suggesting that enhanced activation of these inflammatory pathways is associated with the increased mortality in undernourished children with pneumonia and malaria.

INTERPRETATION

Collectively, these data highlight systemic inflammation as a common pathway associated with malnutrition and infection that could be targeted to mitigate the burden of acute febrile illness in LMICs.

FUNDING

This work was supported in part by the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, and by kind donations from The Tesari Foundation and Kim Kertland. The funders had no role in design, analysis, or reporting of these studies.

Mortality after hospital discharge among children younger than 5 years admitted with suspected sepsis in Uganda: a prospective, multisite, observational cohort study

BACKGROUND

Substantial mortality occurs after hospital discharge in children younger than 5 years with suspected sepsis, especially in low-income countries. A better understanding of its epidemiology is needed for effective interventions to reduce child mortality in these countries. We evaluated risk factors for death after discharge in children admitted to hospital for suspected sepsis in Uganda, and assessed how these differed by age, time of death, and location of death.

METHODS

In this prospective, multisite, observational cohort study, we recruited and consecutively enrolled children aged 0-60 months admitted with suspected sepsis from the community to the paediatric wards of six Ugandan hospitals. Suspected sepsis was defined as the need for admission due to a suspected or proven infectious illness. At admission, trained study nurses systematically collected data on clinical variables, sociodemographic variables, and baseline characteristics with encrypted study tablets. Participants were followed up for 6 months after discharge by field officers who contacted caregivers at 2 months and 4 months after discharge by telephone and at 6 months after discharge in person to measure vital status, health-care seeking after discharge, and readmission details. We assessed 6-month mortality after hospital discharge among those discharged alive, with verbal autopsies conducted for children who had died after hospital discharge.

FINDINGS

Between July 13, 2017, and March 30, 2020, 16 991 children were screened for eligibility. 6545 children (2927 [44·72%] female children and 3618 [55·28%] male children) were enrolled and 6191 were discharged from hospital alive. 6073 children (2687 [44·2%] female children and 3386 [55·8%] male children) completed follow-up. 366 children died in the 6-month period after discharge (weighted mortality rate 5·5%). Median time from discharge to death was 28 days (IQR 9-74). For the 360 children for whom location of death was documented, deaths occurred at home (162 [45·0%]), in transit to care (66 [18·3%]), or in hospital (132 [36·7%]) during a subsequent readmission. Death after hospital discharge was strongly associated with weight-for-age Z scores less than -3 (adjusted risk ratio [aRR] 4·7, 95% CI 3·7-5·8 vs a Z score of >-2), discharge or referral to a higher level of care (7·3, 5·6-9·5), and unplanned discharge (3·2, 2·5-4·0). Hazard ratios (HRs) for severe anaemia (<7g/dL) increased with time since discharge, from 1·7 (95% CI 0·9-3·0) for death occurring in the first time tertile to 5·2 (3·1-8·5) in the third time tertile. HRs for some discharge vulnerabilities decreased significantly with increasing time since discharge, including unplanned discharge (from 4.5 [2·9-6·9] in the first tertile to 2·0 [1·3-3·2] in the third tertile) and poor feeding status (from 7·7 [5·4-11·0] to 1·84 [1·0-3·3]). Age interacted with several variables, including reduced weight-for-age Z score, severe anaemia, and reduced admission temperature.

INTERPRETATION

Paediatric mortality following hospital discharge after suspected sepsis is common, with diminishing, although persistent, risk during the first 6 months after discharge. Efforts to improve outcomes after hospital discharge are crucial to achieving Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 (ending preventable childhood deaths under age 5 years).

FUNDING

Grand Challenges Canada, Thrasher Research Fund, BC Children's Hospital Foundation, and Mining4Life.

Treatment outcomes and associated factors for hospitalization of children treated for acute malnutrition under the OptiMA simplified protocol: a prospective observational cohort in rural Niger

Introduction

Globally, access to treatment for severe and moderate acute malnutrition is very low, in part because different protocols and products are used in separate programs. New approaches, defining acute malnutrition (AM) as mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) < 125 mm or oedema, are being investigated to compare effectiveness to current programs. Optimizing Malnutrition treatment (OptiMA) is one such strategy that treats AM with one product - ready-to-use therapeutic food, or RUTF - at reduced dosage as the child improves.

Methods

This study aimed to determine whether OptiMA achieved effectiveness benchmarks established in the Nigerien National Nutrition protocol. A prospective cohort study of children in the rural Mirriah district evaluated outcomes among children 6-59 months with uncomplicated AM treated under OptiMA. In a parallel, unconnected program in one of the two trial sites, all non-malnourished children 6-23 months of age were provided small quantity lipid-based nutritional supplements (SQ-LNS). A multivariate logistic regression identified factors associated with hospitalization.

Results

From July-December 2019, 1,105 children were included for analysis. Prior to treatment, 39.3% of children received SQ-LNS. Recovery, non-response, and mortality rates were 82.3%, 12.6%, and 0.7%, respectively, and the hospitalization rate was 15.1%. Children who received SQ-LNS before an episode of AM were 43% less likely to be hospitalized (ORa=0.57; 0.39-0.85, p = 0.004).

Discussion

OptiMA had acceptable recovery compared to the Nigerien reference but non-response was high. Children who received SQ-LNS before treatment under OptiMA were less likely to be hospitalized, showing potential health benefits of combining simplified treatment protocols with food-based prevention in an area with a high burden of malnutrition such as rural Niger.

Derivation and external validation of a clinical prognostic model identifying children at risk of death following presentation for diarrheal care

Diarrhea continues to be a leading cause of death for children under-five. Amongst children treated for acute diarrhea, mortality risk remains elevated during and after acute medical management. Identification of those at highest risk would enable better targeting of interventions, but available prognostic tools lack validation. We used clinical and demographic data from the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS) to build clinical prognostic models (CPMs) to predict death (in-treatment, after discharge, or either) in children aged ≤59 months presenting with moderate-to-severe diarrhea (MSD), in Africa and Asia. We screened variables using random forests, and assessed predictive performance with random forest regression and logistic regression using repeated cross-validation. We used data from the Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System (KHDSS) and Kilifi County Hospital (KCH) in Kenya to externally validate our GEMS-derived CPM. Of 8060 MSD cases, 43 (0.5%) children died in treatment and 122 (1.5% of remaining) died after discharge. MUAC at presentation, respiratory rate, age, temperature, number of days with diarrhea at presentation, number of people living in household, number of children <60 months old living in household, and how much the child had been offered to drink since diarrhea started were predictive of death both in treatment and after discharge. Using a parsimonious 2-variable prediction model, we achieved an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.84 (95% CI: 0.82, 0.86) in the derivation dataset, and an AUC = 0.74 (95% CI 0.71, 0.77) in the external dataset. Our findings suggest it is possible to identify children most likely to die after presenting to care for acute diarrhea. This could represent a novel and cost-effective way to target resources for the prevention of childhood mortality.

Predictive value of clinician impression for readmission and postdischarge mortality among neonates and young children in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania and Monrovia, Liberia

BACKGROUND

There are no validated clinical decision aids to identify neonates and young children at risk of hospital readmission or postdischarge mortality in sub-Saharan Africa, leaving the decision to discharge a child to a clinician's impression. Our objective was to determine the precision of clinician impression to identify neonates and young children at risk for readmission and postdischarge mortality.

METHODS

We conducted a survey study nested in a prospective observational cohort of neonates and children aged 1-59 months followed 60 days after hospital discharge from Muhimbili National Hospital in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania or John F. Kennedy Medical Center in Monrovia, Liberia. Clinicians who discharged each enrolled patient were surveyed to determine their perceived probability of the patient's risk of 60-day hospital readmission or postdischarge mortality. We calculated the area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC) to determine the precision of clinician impression for both outcomes.

RESULTS

Of 4247 discharged patients, 3896 (91.7%) had available clinician surveys and 3847 (98.7%) had 60-day outcomes available: 187 (4.8%) were readmitted and 120 (3.1%) died within 60 days of hospital discharge. Clinician impression had poor precision in identifying neonates and young children at risk of hospital readmission (AUPRC: 0.06, 95% CI: 0.04 to 0.08) and postdischarge mortality (AUPRC: 0.05, 95% CI: 0.03 to 0.08). Patients for whom clinicians attributed inability to pay for future medical treatment as the reason for risk for unplanned hospital readmission had 4.76 times the odds hospital readmission (95% CI: 1.31 to 17.25, p=0.02).

CONCLUSIONS

Given the poor precision of clinician impression alone to identify neonates and young children at risk of hospital readmission and postdischarge mortality, validated clinical decision aids are needed to aid in the identification of young children at risk for these outcomes.

Characterising paediatric mortality during and after acute illness in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia: a secondary analysis of the CHAIN cohort using a machine learning approach

BACKGROUND

A better understanding of which children are likely to die during acute illness will help clinicians and policy makers target resources at the most vulnerable children. We used machine learning to characterise mortality in the 30-days following admission and the 180-days after discharge from nine hospitals in low and middle-income countries (LMIC).

METHODS

A cohort of 3101 children aged 2-24 months were recruited at admission to hospital for any acute illness in Bangladesh (Dhaka and Matlab Hospitals), Pakistan (Civil Hospital Karachi), Kenya (Kilifi, Mbagathi, and Migori Hospitals), Uganda (Mulago Hospital), Malawi (Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital), and Burkina Faso (Banfora Hospital) from November 2016 to January 2019. To record mortality, children were observed during their hospitalisation and for 180 days post-discharge. Extreme gradient boosted models of death within 30 days of admission and mortality in the 180 days following discharge were built. Clusters of mortality sharing similar characteristics were identified from the models using Shapley additive values with spectral clustering.

FINDINGS

Anthropometric and laboratory parameters were the most influential predictors of both 30-day and post-discharge mortality. No WHO/IMCI syndromes were among the 25 most influential mortality predictors of mortality. For 30-day mortality, two lower-risk clusters (N = 1915, 61%) included children with higher-than-average anthropometry (1% died, 95% CI: 0-2), and children without signs of severe illness (3% died, 95% CI: 2-4%). The two highest risk 30-day mortality clusters (N = 118, 4%) were characterised by high urea and creatinine (70% died, 95% CI: 62-82%); and nutritional oedema with low platelets and reduced consciousness (97% died, 95% CI: 92-100%). For post-discharge mortality risk, two low-risk clusters (N = 1753, 61%) were defined by higher-than-average anthropometry (0% died, 95% CI: 0-1%), and gastroenteritis with lower-than-average anthropometry and without major laboratory abnormalities (0% died, 95% CI: 0-1%). Two highest risk post-discharge clusters (N = 267, 9%) included children leaving against medical advice (30% died, 95% CI: 25-37%), and severely-low anthropometry with signs of illness at discharge (46% died, 95% CI: 34-62%).

INTERPRETATION

WHO clinical syndromes are not sufficient at predicting risk. Integrating basic laboratory features such as urea, creatinine, red blood cell, lymphocyte and platelet counts into guidelines may strengthen efforts to identify high-risk children during paediatric hospitalisations.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates FoundationOPP1131320.

Pediatric post-discharge mortality in resource-poor countries: A protocol for an updated systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

More than 50 countries, mainly in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, are not on course to meet the neonatal and under-five mortality target set by the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for the year 2030. One important, yet neglected, aspect of child mortality rates is deaths occurring during the post-discharge period. For children living in resource-poor countries, the rate of post-discharge mortality within the first several months after discharge is often as high as the rates observed during the initial admission period. This has generally been observed within the context of acute illness and has been closely linked to underlying conditions such as malnutrition, HIV, and anemia. These post-discharge mortality rates tend to be underreported and present a major oversight in the efforts to reduce overall child mortality. This review will explore recurrent illness following discharge through determination of rates of, and risk factors for, pediatric post-discharge mortality in resource-poor settings.

METHODS

Eligible studies will be retrieved using MEDLINE, EMBASE, and CINAHL databases. Only studies with a post-discharge observation period of more than 7 days following discharge will be eligible for inclusion. Secondary outcomes will include post-discharge mortality relative to in-hospital mortality, overall readmission rates, pooled estimates of risk factors (e.g. admission details vs discharge factors, clinical vs social factors), pooled post-discharge mortality Kaplan-Meier survival curves, and outcomes by disease subgroups (e.g. malnutrition, anemia, general admissions). A narrative description of the included studies will be synthesized to categorize commonly affected patient population categories and a random-effects meta-analysis will be conducted to quantify overall post-discharge mortality rates at the 6-month time point.

DISCUSSION

Post-discharge mortality contributes to global child mortality rates with a greater burden of deaths occurring in resource-poor settings. Literature concentrated on child mortality published over the last decade has expanded to focus on the fatal outcomes of children post-discharge and associated risk factors. The results from this systematic review will inform current policy and interventions on the epidemiological burden of post-discharge mortality and morbidity following acute illness among children living in resource-poor settings.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO Registration ID: CRD42022350975.

What are the risk factors for death among children with pneumonia in low- and middle-income countries? A systematic review

Background

Knowledge of the risk factors for and causes of treatment failure and mortality in childhood pneumonia is important for prevention, diagnosis, and treatment at an individual and population level. This review aimed to identify the most important risk factors for mortality among children aged under ten years with pneumonia.

Methods

We systematically searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and PubMed for observational and interventional studies reporting risk factors for mortality in children (aged two months to nine years) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We screened articles according to specified inclusion and exclusion criteria, assessed risk of bias using the EPHPP framework, and extracted data on demographic, clinical, and laboratory risk factors for death. We synthesized data descriptively and using Forest plots and did not attempt meta-analysis due to the heterogeneity in study design, definitions, and populations.

Findings

We included 143 studies in this review. Hypoxaemia (low blood oxygen level), decreased conscious state, severe acute malnutrition, and the presence of an underlying chronic condition were the risk factors most strongly and consistently associated with increased mortality in children with pneumonia. Additional important clinical factors that were associated with mortality in the majority of studies included particular clinical signs (cyanosis, pallor, tachypnoea, chest indrawing, convulsions, diarrhoea), chronic comorbidities (anaemia, HIV infection, congenital heart disease, heart failure), as well as other non-severe forms of malnutrition. Important demographic factors associated with mortality in the majority of studies included age <12 months and inadequate immunisation. Important laboratory and investigation findings associated with mortality in the majority of studies included: confirmed Pneumocystis jirovecii pneumonia (PJP), consolidation on chest x-ray, pleural effusion on chest x-ray, and leukopenia. Several other demographic, clinical and laboratory findings were associated with mortality less consistently or in a small numbers of studies.

Conclusions

Risk assessment for children with pneumonia should include routine evaluation for hypoxaemia (pulse oximetry), decreased conscious state (e.g. AVPU), malnutrition (severe, moderate, and stunting), and the presence of an underlying chronic condition as these are strongly and consistently associated with increased mortality. Other potentially useful risk factors include the presence of pallor or anaemia, chest indrawing, young age (<12 months), inadequate immunisation, and leukopenia.

Depressive symptoms among mothers with hospitalized children in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa

BACKGROUND

Poor maternal mental health during childhood hospitalization is associated with post-discharge child mortality. We aimed to establish if maternal PHQ-9 scores during hospitalization are associated with acute stressors or longer trends in mental health status.

METHOD

Mothers of children admitted to nine hospitals in six countries completed a PHQ-9 assessment during hospitalization and 45-days post-discharge. Community participants were recruited from homes near the hospitalized children. The prevalence and correlates of high PHQ-9 scores among hospitalized and community mothers were compared.

OUTCOMES

Among 2762 mothers of hospitalized children, 514 (19 %) had PHQ-9 scores ≥10, significantly more than the 116 (10 %, p < 0·001) of 1159 community participants. Recruitment site and food insecurity were PHQ-9 correlates in both groups. Correlates of higher mean PHQ-9 scores among the hospitalized cohort included maternal illness (mean difference [MD]: 1·27, 95%CI: 0·77, 1·77), pregnancy (MD: 0·77, 95%CI: 0·27, 1·28), child HIV-infection (MD: 2·51. 95%CI: 1·55, 3·52), and lower child weight-for-height (MD: 0·21, 95%CI: 0·32, 0·11). Marriage (MD -0·92, 95%CI: -1·36, -0·48) and a positive malaria test (MD: -0·63, 95%CI: -1·15, -0·10) were associated with lower PHQ-9 scores among mothers of hospitalized children. Among mothers with PHQ-9 ≥10 during admission, 410 had repeat assessments 45-days after their child's discharge, and 108 (26 %) continued to meet the high PHQ-9 criterion.

INTERPRETATION

Among mothers of hospitalized children, there are subgroups with transient and persistent depressive symptoms. Interventions tailored to address acute stressors may improve post-discharge pediatric and maternal health outcomes.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation OPP1131320.

Derivation and external validation of a clinical prognostic model identifying children at risk of death following presentation for diarrheal care

Diarrhea continues to be a leading cause of death for children under-five. Amongst children treated for acute diarrhea, mortality risk remains elevated during and after acute medical management. Identification of those at highest risk would enable better targeting of interventions, but available prognostic tools lack validation. We used clinical and demographic data from the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS) to build predictive models for death (in-treatment, after discharge, or either) in children aged ≤59 months presenting with moderate-to-severe diarrhea (MSD), in Africa and Asia. We screened variables using random forests, and assessed predictive performance with random forest regression and logistic regression using repeated cross-validation. We used data from the Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System (KHDSS) and Kilifi County Hospital (KCH) in Kenya to externally validate our GEMS-derived clinical prognostic model (CPM). Of 8060 MSD cases, 43 (0.5%) children died in treatment and 122 (1.5% of remaining) died after discharge. MUAC at presentation, respiratory rate, age, temperature, number of days with diarrhea at presentation, number of people living in household, number of children <60 months old living in household, and how much the child had been offered to drink since diarrhea started were predictive of death both in treatment and after discharge. Using a parsimonious 2-variable prediction model, we achieve an AUC=0.84 (95% CI: 0.82, 0.86) in the derivation dataset, and an AUC=0.74 (95% CI 0.71, 0.77) in the external dataset. Our findings suggest it is possible to identify children most likely to die after presenting to care for acute diarrhea. This could represent a novel and cost-effective way to target resources for the prevention of childhood mortality.

Diagnostic, Management, and Research Considerations for Pediatric Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome in Resource-Limited Settings: From the Second Pediatric Acute Lung Injury Consensus Conference

OBJECTIVES

Diagnosis of pediatric acute respiratory distress syndrome (PARDS) in resource-limited settings (RLS) is challenging and remains poorly described. We conducted a review of the literature to optimize recognition of PARDS in RLS and to provide recommendations/statements for clinical practice and future research in these settings as part of the Second Pediatric Acute Lung Injury Consensus Conference (PALICC-2).

DATA SOURCES

MEDLINE (Ovid), Embase (Elsevier), and CINAHL Complete (EBSCOhost).

STUDY SELECTION

We included studies related to precipitating factors for PARDS, mechanical ventilation (MV), pulmonary and nonpulmonary ancillary treatments, and long-term outcomes in children who survive PARDS in RLS.

DATA EXTRACTION

Title/abstract review, full-text review, and data extraction using a standardized data collection form.

DATA SYNTHESIS

The Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation approach was used to identify and summarize evidence and develop recommendations. Seventy-seven studies were identified for full-text extraction. We were unable to identify any literature on which to base recommendations. We gained consensus on six clinical statements (good practice, definition, and policy) and five research statements. Clinicians should be aware of diseases and comorbidities, uncommon in most high-income settings, that predispose to the development of PARDS in RLS. Because of difficulties in recognizing PARDS and to avoid underdiagnosis, the PALICC-2 possible PARDS definition allows exclusion of imaging criteria when all other criteria are met, including noninvasive metrics of hypoxemia. The availability of MV support, regular MV training and education, as well as accessibility and costs of pulmonary and nonpulmonary ancillary therapies are other concerns related to management of PARDS in RLS. Data on long-term outcomes and feasibility of follow-up in PARDS survivors from RLS are also lacking.

CONCLUSIONS

To date, PARDS remains poorly described in RLS. Clinicians working in these settings should be aware of common precipitating factors for PARDS in their patients. Future studies utilizing the PALICC-2 definitions are urgently needed to describe the epidemiology, management, and outcomes of PARDS in RLS.

Trends in inpatient and post-discharge mortality among young infants admitted to Kilifi County Hospital, Kenya: a retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To describe admission trends and estimate inpatient and post-discharge mortality and its associated exposures, among young infants (YI) admitted to a county hospital in Kenya.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

Secondary level hospital.

PARTICIPANTS

YI aged less than 60 days admitted to hospital from January 2009 to December 2019: 12 271 admissions in 11 877 individuals. YI who were resident within a Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System (KHDSS): n=3625 with 4421 admissions were followed-up for 1 year after discharge.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Inpatient and 1-year post-discharge mortality, the latter in KHDSS residents.

RESULTS

Of 12 271 YI admissions, 4421 (36%) were KHDSS-resident. Neonatal sepsis, preterm complications and birth asphyxia accounted for 83% of the admissions. The proportion of YI among under-5s admissions increased from 19% in 2009 to 34% in 2019 (P_trend=0.02). Inpatient case fatality was 16%, with 66% of the deaths occurring within 48 hours of admission. The introduction of free maternity care in 2013 was not associated with a change in admissions or inpatient mortality among YI. During 1-year post-discharge, 208/3625 (5.7%) YI died, 64.3 (95% CI 56.2 to 73.7) per 1000 infant-years. 49% of the post-discharge deaths occurred within 1 month of discharge, and 49% of post-discharge deaths occurred at home. Both inpatient and post-discharge deaths were associated with low admission weight. Inpatient mortality was associated with clinical signs of disease severity, while post-discharge mortality was associated with the length of hospitalisation, leaving against advice and referral to a specialised hospital.

CONCLUSIONS

YIs accounted for an increasing proportion of paediatric admissions and their overall mortality remains high. Post-discharge mortality accounts for a lower proportion of deaths but mortality rate is higher than among children aged 2-59 months. Services to address post-discharge mortality are needed and should focus on infants at higher risk.

The significance of MUAC z-scores in diagnosing pediatric malnutrition: A scoping review with special emphasis on neurologically disabled children

This review by a panel of pediatric gastroenterology-hepatology-nutrition and pediatric neurology experts aimed to address the significance of mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) assessment in diagnosis of pediatric malnutrition. Specifically, the potential utility of recently developed MUAC z-score tape in clinical practice for larger patient populations was addressed including the neurologically disabled children. In accordance with the evidence-based data, four statements were identified by the participating experts on the utility of MUAC z-score tape, including (1) MUAC z-scores correlate with body mass index (BMI) and weight for height/length (WFH/l) z-scores in diagnosing malnutrition; (2) MUAC z-score tape offers a higher sensitivity to diagnose the mild and moderate malnutrition and better ability to track the changes in nutritional status over time than the other single datapoint measurements; (3) Using single-step MUAC z-score tape in children with cerebral palsy (CP) seems to provide more reliable data on anthropometry; and (4) The clinical value of the tool in classifying secondary malnutrition in CP should be investigated in large-scale populations. In conclusion, enabling single-step estimation of nutritional status in a large-scale pediatric population regardless of age and within a wide range of weight, without formal training or the need for ancillary reference charts and calculators, MUAC z-tape offers a favorable tool for easier and earlier diagnosis of pediatric malnutrition. Nonetheless, further implementation of MUAC z-score screening in larger-scale and/or special populations is necessary to justify its utility in relation to other primary anthropometric indicators in diagnosis of malnutrition as well as in treatment monitoring in the community and hospital setting.

Enteric Permeability, Systemic Inflammation, and Post-Discharge Growth Among a Cohort of Hospitalized Children in Kenya and Pakistan

OBJECTIVES

To determine whether gut permeability is associated with post-discharge growth and systemic inflammation among hospitalized children in low- and middle-income countries.

METHODS

Children aged 2-23 months being discharged from Civil Hospital Karachi (Pakistan) and Migori County Referral Hospital (Kenya) underwent lactulose-rhamnose ratio (LRR) permeability testing and were compared to age-matched children from their home communities. Linear mixed effect models estimated the associations between LRR among discharged children with change in length-for-age (LAZ) and weight-for-age z score (WAZ) at 45, 90, and 180 days after discharge. Linear regression tested if relationships between LRR, systemic inflammation [C-reative protein (CRP), Cluster of Differentiation 14 (CD14), Tumour Necrosis Factor Alpha (TNFα), Interleukin-6 (IL-6)], and enterocyte damage [Intestinal Fatty-Acid Binding protein (I-FABP)] differed between the hospitalized and community groups.

RESULTS

One hundred thirty-seven hospitalized and 84 community participants were included. The hospitalized group had higher log-LRR [0.43, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.15-0.71, P = 0.003] than the community children. Adjustment for weight-for-length z score at discharge attenuated this association (0.31, 95% CI: 0.00-0.62, P = 0.049). LRR was not associated with changes in WAZ or LAZ in the post-discharge period. Associations between LRR and CRP (interaction P = 0.036), TNFα ( P = 0.017), CD14 ( P = 0.078), and IL-6 ( P = 0.243) differed between community and hospitalized groups. LRR was associated with TNFα ( P = 0.004) and approached significance with CD14 ( P = 0.078) and IL-6 ( P = 0.062) in community children, but there was no evidence of these associations among hospitalized children.

CONCLUSIONS

Although increased enteric permeability is more prevalent among children being discharged from hospital compared to children in the community, it does not appear to be an important determinant of systemic inflammation or post-discharge growth among hospitalized children.

The Childhood Acute Illness and Nutrition (CHAIN) network nested case-cohort study protocol: a multi-omics approach to understanding mortality among children in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia

Introduction: Many acutely ill children in low- and middle-income settings have a high risk of mortality both during and after hospitalisation despite guideline-based care. Understanding the biological mechanisms underpinning mortality may suggest optimal pathways to target for interventions to further reduce mortality. The Childhood Acute Illness and Nutrition (CHAIN) Network ( www.chainnnetwork.org) Nested Case-Cohort Study (CNCC) aims to investigate biological mechanisms leading to inpatient and post-discharge mortality through an integrated multi-omic approach. Methods and analysis; The CNCC comprises a subset of participants from the CHAIN cohort (1278/3101 hospitalised participants, including 350 children who died and 658 survivors, and 270/1140 well community children of similar age and household location) from nine sites in six countries across sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Systemic proteome, metabolome, lipidome, lipopolysaccharides, haemoglobin variants, toxins, pathogens, intestinal microbiome and biomarkers of enteropathy will be determined. Computational systems biology analysis will include machine learning and multivariate predictive modelling with stacked generalization approaches accounting for the different characteristics of each biological modality. This systems approach is anticipated to yield mechanistic insights, show interactions and behaviours of the components of biological entities, and help develop interventions to reduce mortality among acutely ill children. Ethics and dissemination. The CHAIN Network cohort and CNCC was approved by institutional review boards of all partner sites. Results will be published in open access, peer reviewed scientific journals and presented to academic and policy stakeholders. Data will be made publicly available, including uploading to recognised omics databases. Trial registration NCT03208725.

Neurodevelopment and Recovery From Wasting

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Acute illness with malnutrition is a common indication for hospitalization among children in low- and middle-income countries. We investigated the association between wasting recovery trajectories and neurodevelopmental outcomes in young children 6 months after hospitalization for an acute illness.

METHODS

Children aged 2 to 23 months were enrolled in a prospective observational cohort of the Childhood Acute Illness &amp; Nutrition Network, in Uganda, Malawi, and Pakistan between January 2017 and January 2019. We grouped children on the basis of their wasting recovery trajectories using change in mid-upper arm circumference for age z-score. Neurodevelopment was assessed with the Malawi Developmental Assessment Tool (MDAT development-for-age z-score [DAZ]) at hospital discharge and after 6 months.

RESULTS

We included 645 children at hospital discharge (mean age 12.3 months ± 5.5; 55% male); 262 (41%) with severe wasting, 134 (21%) with moderate wasting, and 249 (39%) without wasting. Four recovery trajectories were identified: high-stable, n = 112; wasted-improved, n = 404; severely wasted-greatly improved, n = 48; and severely wasted-not improved, n = 28. The children in the severely wasted-greatly improved group demonstrated a steep positive MDAT-DAZ recovery slope. This effect was most evident in children with both wasting and stunting (interaction wasted-improved × time × stunting: P &lt; .001). After 6 months, the MDAT DAZ in children with wasting recovery did not differ from community children. In children who never recovered from wasting, there remained a significant delay in MDAT DAZ scores.

CONCLUSIONS

Neurodevelopment recovery occurred in parallel with wasting recovery in children convalescing from acute illness and was influenced by stunting.

The Role of Food Insecurity and Dietary Diversity on Recovery from Wasting among Hospitalized Children Aged 6-23 Months in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia

Background: Current guidelines for the management of childhood wasting primarily focus on the provision of therapeutic foods and the treatment of medical complications. However, many children with wasting live in food-secure households, and multiple studies have demonstrated that the etiology of wasting is complex, including social, nutritional, and biological causes. We evaluated the contribution of household food insecurity, dietary diversity, and the consumption of specific food groups to the time to recovery from wasting after hospital discharge. Methods: We conducted a secondary analysis of the Childhood Acute Illness Network (CHAIN) cohort, a multicenter prospective study conducted in six low- or lower-middle-income countries. We included children aged 6−23 months with wasting (mid-upper arm circumference [MUAC] ≤ 12.5 cm) or kwashiorkor (bipedal edema) at the time of hospital discharge. The primary outcome was time to nutritional recovery, defined as a MUAC > 12.5 cm without edema. Using Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for age, sex, study site, HIV status, duration of hospitalization, enrollment MUAC, referral to a nutritional program, caregiver education, caregiver depression, the season of enrollment, residence, and household wealth status, we evaluated the role of reported food insecurity, dietary diversity, and specific food groups prior to hospitalization on time to recovery from wasting during the 6 months of posthospital discharge. Findings: Of 1286 included children, most participants (806, 63%) came from food-insecure households, including 170 (13%) with severe food insecurity, and 664 (52%) participants had insufficient dietary diversity. The median time to recovery was 96 days (18/100 child-months (95% CI: 17.0, 19.0)). Moderate (aHR 1.17 [0.96, 1.43]) and severe food insecurity (aHR 1.14 [0.88, 1.48]), and insufficient dietary diversity (aHR 1.07 [0.91, 1.25]) were not significantly associated with time to recovery. Children who had consumed legumes and nuts prior to diagnosis had a quicker recovery than those who did not (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR): 1.21 [1.01,1.44]). Consumption of dairy products (aHR 1.13 [0.96, 1.34], p = 0.14) and meat (aHR 1.11 [0.93, 1.33]), p = 0.23) were not statistically significantly associated with time to recovery. Consumption of fruits and vegetables (aHR 0.78 [0.65,0.94]) and breastfeeding (aHR 0.84 [0.71, 0.99]) before diagnosis were associated with longer time to recovery. Conclusion: Among wasted children discharged from hospital and managed in compliance with wasting guidelines, food insecurity and dietary diversity were not major determinants of recovery.

The Childhood Acute Illness and Nutrition (CHAIN) network nested case-cohort study protocol: a multi-omics approach to understanding mortality among children in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia

Introduction: Many acutely ill children in low- and middle-income settings have a high risk of mortality both during and after hospitalisation despite guideline-based care. Understanding the biological mechanisms underpinning mortality may suggest optimal pathways to target for interventions to further reduce mortality. The Childhood Acute Illness and Nutrition (CHAIN) Network ( www.chainnnetwork.org) Nested Case-Cohort Study (CNCC) aims to investigate biological mechanisms leading to inpatient and post-discharge mortality through an integrated multi-omic approach. Methods and analysis; The CNCC comprises a subset of participants from the CHAIN cohort (1278/3101 hospitalised participants, including 350 children who died and 658 survivors, and 270/1140 well community children of similar age and household location) from nine sites in six countries across sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Systemic proteome, metabolome, lipidome, lipopolysaccharides, haemoglobin variants, toxins, pathogens, intestinal microbiome and biomarkers of enteropathy will be determined. Computational systems biology analysis will include machine learning and multivariate predictive modelling with stacked generalization approaches accounting for the different characteristics of each biological modality. This systems approach is anticipated to yield mechanistic insights, show interactions and behaviours of the components of biological entities, and help develop interventions to reduce mortality among acutely ill children. Ethics and dissemination. The CHAIN Network cohort and CNCC was approved by institutional review boards of all partner sites. Results will be published in open access, peer reviewed scientific journals and presented to academic and policy stakeholders. Data will be made publicly available, including uploading to recognised omics databases. Trial registration NCT03208725.

Changing mortality amongst hospitalised children with Severe Acute Malnutrition in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, 2009 - 2018

Background

The under-five mortality rates of children in South Africa (SA) remain high despite successful HIV prevention and treatment programs. The in-hospital mortality of children with severe acute malnutrition remains a key obstacle. This study identifies and describes changes in the mortality of under-five children with severe acute malnutrition (SAM) following the implementation of HIV and malnutrition prevention and treatment programmes.

Methods

This was a retrospective review of in-hospital mortality records and databases. The study was based at a large referral hospital in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), where HIV and malnutrition rates are high, and SAM children are managed with standard WHO guidelines. Records of children under five years old who died from 2009 to 2018 were analysed.

Results

Of the 698 under-five children who died in this period, 285 (40, 8% of all under-5 deaths) were classified as having SAM. The number of HIV-infected SAM deaths dropped significantly, especially those below six months of age, mirroring the expansion of HIV treatment and prevention programmes. Despite this and a significant drop in the proportion of SAM admissions identified, there was no change in SAM case fatality rates over the ten years. Septicaemia remained the most common cause of death in children with SAM.

Conclusions

Despite significant decreases in HIV-related malnutrition deaths over ten years, the lack of change in SAM case fatality rates is a concern at this referral hospital. Standardised WHO inpatient management protocols, may require review, especially where underlying medical conditions may contribute to SAM deaths in HIV-negative children.