Serological survey of 2009 H1N1 influenza in residents of Beijing, China

Seroprevalence of Pandemic A(H1N1) pmd09 Virus Antibodies in Mexican Health Care Workers Before and After Vaccination

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

In April 2009, a new strain of influenza A(H1N1) was identified in Mexico and in the U.S. In June 2009, WHO declared this a pandemic. Health care workers constituted a risk group for their close contact with infected individuals. The aim was to estimate seropositivity for A(H1N1)pdm09 in health staff at the Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social.

METHODS

A two-stage cross-sectional study, before and after vaccination in the same workers, was performed on a random sample of health-care workers. A socio-occupational questionnaire was applied and serum antibodies against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 were determined through neutralization of retroviral pseudotypes; two logistic regression models for both were constructed.

RESULTS

The average (median/mean) age of 1378 participants from 13 work centers was 41.7 years and 68.7% (947) were women. Seroprevalence for the first stage was 26.5% (365) (7.4-43%) vs. 20.8% (11) in a control group from the blood bank; for the second stage, the vaccinated group was 33% (215) (18.2-47%) and 27% (196) (11.6-50%) for the unvaccinated group. In regression models, seropositivity was associated with occupational exposure to suspected influenza infected patients, being physicians, and being vaccinated.

CONCLUSIONS

Seropositivity against pandemic virus is similar to what was reported, both for vaccinated (2.8-40.9%) and unvaccinated (18.8-64.7%). Low seroprevalence in the vaccinated group indicates that between 67% and 73% were susceptible to infection. Given the relatively low vaccine-induced seropositivity, it is imperative to increase, hygiene and safety for health staff and at-risk populations, and strengthen epidemiological surveillance.

Statistical identifiability and sample size calculations for serial seroepidemiology

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We investigate whether disease dynamics can be inferred by repeated serum collections.

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Measuring antibody waning is critical for inference in serological time series.

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Collecting 200 samples every 2 months allows for inference of transmission parameters.

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Low-level seasonality is difficult to detect statistically.

Inference on disease dynamics is typically performed using case reporting time series of symptomatic disease. The inferred dynamics will vary depending on the reporting patterns and surveillance system for the disease in question, and the inference will miss mild or underreported epidemics. To eliminate the variation introduced by differing reporting patterns and to capture asymptomatic or subclinical infection, inferential methods can be applied to serological data sets instead of case reporting data. To reconstruct complete disease dynamics, one would need to collect a serological time series. In the statistical analysis presented here, we consider a particular kind of serological time series with repeated, periodic collections of population-representative serum. We refer to this study design as a serial seroepidemiology (SSE) design, and we base the analysis on our epidemiological knowledge of influenza. We consider a study duration of three to four years, during which a single antigenic type of influenza would be circulating, and we evaluate our ability to reconstruct disease dynamics based on serological data alone. We show that the processes of reinfection, antibody generation, and antibody waning confound each other and are not always statistically identifiable, especially when dynamics resemble a non-oscillating endemic equilibrium behavior. We introduce some constraints to partially resolve this confounding, and we show that transmission rates and basic reproduction numbers can be accurately estimated in SSE study designs. Seasonal forcing is more difficult to identify as serology-based studies only detect oscillations in antibody titers of recovered individuals, and these oscillations are typically weaker than those observed for infected individuals. To accurately estimate the magnitude and timing of seasonal forcing, serum samples should be collected every two months and 200 or more samples should be included in each collection; this sample size estimate is sensitive to the antibody waning rate and the assumed level of seasonal forcing.

Factors associated with post-seasonal serological titer and risk factors for infection with the pandemic A/H1N1 virus in the French general population

The CoPanFlu-France cohort of households was set up in 2009 to study the risk factors for infection by the pandemic influenza virus (H1N1pdm) in the French general population. The authors developed an integrative data-driven approach to identify individual, collective and environmental factors associated with the post-seasonal serological H1N1pdm geometric mean titer, and derived a nested case-control analysis to identify risk factors for infection during the first season. This analysis included 1377 subjects (601 households). The GMT for the general population was 47.1 (95% confidence interval (CI): 45.1, 49.2). According to a multivariable analysis, pandemic vaccination, seasonal vaccination in 2009, recent history of influenza-like illness, asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, social contacts at school and use of public transports by the local population were associated with a higher GMT, whereas history of smoking was associated with a lower GMT. Additionally, young age at inclusion and risk perception of exposure to the virus at work were identified as possible risk factors, whereas presence of an air humidifier in the living room was a possible protective factor. These findings will be interpreted in light of the longitudinal analyses of this ongoing cohort.

Cross sectional survey of influenza antibodies before and during the 2009 pandemic in Shenzhen, China

Much information is available for the 2009 H1N1 influenza immunity response, but little is known about the antibody change in seasonal influenza before and during the novel influenza A pandemic. In this study, we conducted a cross-sectional serological survey of 4 types of major seasonal influenza in March and September 2009 on a full range of age groups, to investigate seasonal influenza immunity response before and during the outbreak of the sH1N1 influenza in Shenzhen – the largest migration city in China. We found that the 0–5 age group had an increased antibody level for all types of seasonal influenza during the pandemic compared to the pre-outbreak level, in contrast with almost all other age groups, in which the antibody level decreased. Also, distinct from the antibodies of A/H3N2, B/Yamagata and B/Victoria that decreased significantly during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, the antibody of A/H1N1 showed no statistical difference from the pre-outbreak level. The results suggest that the antibodies against the 2009 sH1N1 cross-reacted with seasonal H1N1. Moreover, the 0–5 age group was under attack by both seasonal and 2009 H1N1 influenza during the pandemic, hence vaccination merely against a new strain of flu might not be enough to protect the youngest group.

Pre- and post-pandemic prevalence of antibodies to the 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus in Austrian adults

Antibody prevalence to the 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus was determined in a sample of the Austrian population to assess the post-pandemic seropositivity rate, the infection attack rate, and the proportion of subclinical infections during the 2009/2010 influenza pandemic in Austrian adults. A total of 480 sera from individuals aged between 18 and 57 years from all nine federal states of Austria were collected between April and June 2010. Information on demographic characteristics, vaccination history, and history of suspected or verified influenza virus infection was ascertained. Antibodies were determined using a commercial ELISA and compared with 80 age-matched adult sera collected before the pandemic began. The overall seropositivity rate was 28% and was highest among young adults aged 18-29 years, followed by adults aged 50-57 years. Among seropositive unvaccinated individuals, infection was asymptomatic in more than 80%. Extrapolation to the overall Austrian adult population indicates that more than 1.3 million persons aged 18-57 years became infected in 2009. Compared with the pre-pandemic seropositivity rate, the infection rate was highest among young adults but low in those aged 30-57 years. Among 69 individuals previously vaccinated with the 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus, 71% had specific antibodies. The study demonstrates that infection rates based on surveillance of clinical cases considerably underestimated the infection attack rate during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Austria and that vaccination against this virus elicited long-lasting seropositivity in more than 70% of adults.

Seroprevalence of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza and effectiveness of 2010/2011 influenza vaccine during 2010/2011 season in Beijing, China

BACKGROUND

In the post-pandemic period, pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus was expected to circulate seasonally and was introduced into trivalent influenza vaccine during 2010/2011 season in the Northern Hemisphere.

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to examine the evolution of herd immunity against pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus in Beijing, China, during 2010/2011 season and effectiveness of the 2010/2011 trivalent vaccine.

METHODS

Two serological surveys were conducted before and after 2010/2011 season in Beijing. A case-control study was used to investigate vaccine effectiveness against influenza-like illness (ILI) and lower respiratory tract infection (LRI).

RESULTS

A total of 4509 and 4543 subjects participated in the pre- and post-season surveys, respectively. The standardized seroprevalence of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza increased from 22.1% pre-season to 24.3% post-season (P<0.001). Significant elevation in seroprevalence appeared in the ≥ 60 years age-group (P<0.001), but not in others. The 2010/2011 trivalent vaccine contributed to the higher post-seasonal seroprevalence in unvaccinated individuals (P=0.024), but not in those vaccinated with monovalent pandemic vaccine (P=0.205), as well as in those without prior immunity versus those with immunity. The adjusted effectiveness of the 2010/2011 trivalent vaccine was 79% protection against ILI (95% CI, 61-89%) and 95% against LRI (95% CI: 59-99%).

CONCLUSIONS

A slight increase in herd immunity against pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza was observed in Beijing, China, during the 2010/2011 season. Prior vaccination and immunity had a suppressive impact on immune response toward this novel influenza virus, elicited by 2010/2011 trivalent vaccine. This trivalent vaccine conferred good protection against ILI and LRI.

Factors associated with the transmission of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 among hospital healthcare workers in Beijing, China

BACKGROUND

With the increase in patient activity during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, came an associated increase in occupational infections of healthcare workers (HCWs).

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to examine factors associated with the transmission of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 among HCWs.

METHODS

A 1:4 matched case-control study by hospital, ward, age, and gender was conducted in HCWs from hospitals in Beijing during February 2010. Cases were diagnosed with pandemic (H1N1) 2009, and controls had neither influenza-like illness nor diagnosis with pandemic (H1N1) 2009 during August 2009 to January 2010. Information during 7 days before symptom onset of case was collected, and controls were queried about the same period.

RESULTS

A total of 51 cases identified via National Notifiable Infectious Disease Surveillance System participated in this study. Controls were matched to cases for a total of 255 individuals. About 19·6% (10/51) of cases and 26·0% (53/204) of controls recalled they had conducted a high-risk procedure on a patient with pandemic (H1N1) 2009. 72·5% (37/51) of cases and 71·6% (146/204) of controls stated they wore medical masks in ≥80% of working time. Only 5·9% (3/51) and 36·3% (74/204) of cases and controls, respectively, reported receiving pandemic vaccination. Participants receiving pandemic vaccination had a significantly lower risk of infection during the pandemic (OR = 0·150, 95% CI: 0·047-0·479, P = 0·001). The estimated vaccine effectiveness was 85·0%.

CONCLUSIONS

We showed a high vaccine effectiveness of the pandemic vaccine and that vaccination was the only factor significantly associated with risk of infection in HCWs.

Personal decision-making criteria related to seasonal and pandemic A(H1N1) influenza-vaccination acceptance among French healthcare workers

BACKGROUND

Influenza-vaccination rates among healthcare workers (HCW) remain low worldwide, even during the 2009 A(H1N1) pandemic. In France, this vaccination is free but administered on a voluntary basis. We investigated the factors influencing HCW influenza vaccination.

METHODS

In June-July 2010, HCW from wards of five French hospitals completed a cross-sectional survey. A multifaceted campaign aimed at improving vaccination coverage in this hospital group was conducted before and during the 2009 pandemic. Using an anonymous self-administered questionnaire, we assessed the relationships between seasonal (SIV) and pandemic (PIV) influenza vaccinations, and sociodemographic and professional characteristics, previous and current vaccination statuses, and 33 statements investigating 10 sociocognitive domains. The sociocognitive domains describing HCWs' SIV and PIV profiles were analyzed using the classification-and-regression-tree method.

RESULTS

Of the HCWs responding to our survey, 1480 were paramedical and 401 were medical with 2009 vaccination rates of 30% and 58% for SIV and 21% and 71% for PIV, respectively (p<0.0001 for both SIV and PIV vaccinations). Older age, prior SIV, working in emergency departments or intensive care units, being a medical HCW and the hospital they worked in were associated with both vaccinations; while work shift was associated only with PIV. Sociocognitive domains associated with both vaccinations were self-perception of benefits and health motivation for all HCW. For medical HCW, being a role model was an additional domain associated with SIV and PIV.

CONCLUSIONS

Both vaccination rates remained low. Vaccination mainly depended on self-determined factors and for medical HCW, being a role model.

The epidemiology of interpandemic and pandemic influenza in Vietnam, 2007-2010: the Ha Nam household cohort study I

Prospective community-based studies have provided fundamental insights into the epidemiology of influenza in temperate regions, but few comparable studies have been undertaken in the tropics. The authors conducted prospective influenza surveillance and intermittent seroprevalence surveys in a household-based cohort in Vietnam between December 2007 and April 2010, resulting in 1,793 person-seasons of influenza surveillance. Age- and sex-standardized estimates of the risk of acquiring any influenza infection per season in persons 5 years of age or older were 21.1% (95% confidence interval: 17.4, 24.7) in season 1, 26.4% (95% confidence interval: 22.6, 30.2) in season 2, and 17.0% (95% confidence interval: 13.6, 20.4) in season 3. Some individuals experienced multiple episodes of infection with different influenza types/subtypes in the same season (n = 27) or reinfection with the same subtype in different seasons (n = 22). The highest risk of influenza infection was in persons 5-9 years old, in whom the risk of influenza infection per season was 41.8%. Although the highest infection risk was in school-aged children, there were important heterogeneities in the age of infection by subtype and season. These heterogeneities could influence the impact of school closure and childhood vaccination on influenza transmission in tropical areas, such as Vietnam.

Pandemic influenza H1N1: reconciling serosurvey data with estimates of the reproduction number

BACKGROUND

During the 2009 pandemic of influenza A (H1N1), many studies reported estimates of the reproduction number from outbreak data. Since then, seroprevalence studies have been conducted in a number of countries to assess the proportion of the population that was infected in the first wave of the pandemic.

METHODS

Here, we collate the reproduction number estimates, and use mathematical models to reconcile these with serosurvey data.

RESULTS

Most estimates of the reproduction number from outbreaks are in the range of 1.0-2.0, whereas mean estimates calculated from seroprevalence data range from 1.14 to 1.36. Age-specific analysis of these data suggests that the reproduction number for children was approximately 1.6, whereas the reproduction numbers for adults >25 years of age was less than 1.0.

CONCLUSION

The difference between age-groups may help to explain high estimates of the reproduction number from outbreaks involving a large proportion of child cases.

Transmissibility of seasonal and pandemic influenza in a cohort of households in Hong Kong in 2009

BACKGROUND

The household secondary attack proportion (SAP) is commonly used to measure the transmissibility of an infectious disease.

METHODS

We analyzed the final outbreak size distributions of pandemic A(H1N1), seasonal A(H1N1), and A(H3N2) infections identified in paired sera collected from members of 117 Hong Kong households in April and in August-October 2009.

RESULTS

The estimated community probability of infection overall was higher for children than adults; the probability was similar for pandemic A(H1N1) and seasonal A(H3N2) influenza. The household SAP for pandemic A(H1N1) was higher in children than in adults, whereas for seasonal A(H3N2), it was similar in children and adults. The estimated SAPs were similar for seasonal A(H3N2) and pandemic A(H1N1) after excluding persons with higher baseline antibody titers from analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Pandemic and seasonal influenza A viruses had similar age-specific transmissibility in a cohort of initially uninfected households, after adjustment for baseline immunity.

Age-dependent patterns of infection and severity explaining the low impact of 2009 influenza A (H1N1): evidence from serial serologic surveys in the Netherlands

Despite considerable research efforts in specific subpopulations, reliable estimates of the infection attack rates and severity of 2009 influenza A (H1N1) in the general population remain scarce. Such estimates are essential to the tailoring of future control strategies. Therefore, 2 serial population-based serologic surveys were conducted, before and after the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) epidemic, in the Netherlands. Random age-stratified samples were obtained using a 2-stage cluster design. Participants donated blood and completed a questionnaire. Data on sentinel general practitioner-attended influenza-like illness and nationwide hospitalization and mortality were used to assess the severity of infection. The estimated infection attack rates were low in the general population (7.6%, 95% confidence interval: 3.6, 11) but high in children aged 5-19 years (35%, 95% confidence interval: 25, 45). The estimated hospitalization and mortality rates per infection increased significantly with age (5-19 years: 0.042% and 0.00094%, respectively; 20-39 years: 0.12% and 0.0025%; 40-59 years: 0.68% and 0.032%; 60-75 years: >0.81% and >0.068%). The high infection attack rate in children and the very low attack rate in older adults, together with the low severity of illness per infection in children but substantial severity in older adults, produced an epidemic with a low overall impact.

High incidence of severe influenza among individuals over 50 years of age

Age-specific epidemiological data on asymptomatic, symptomatic, and severe infections are essential for public health policies on combating influenza. In this study, we incorporated data on microbiologically confirmed infections and seroprevalence to comprehensively describe the epidemiology of pandemic H1N1 2009 influenza. Seroprevalence was determined from 1,795 random serum samples collected in our hospital in January 2007 (before the first wave of the pandemic) and March 2010 (after the second wave). Data on microbiologically confirmed infection and severe cases were obtained from the Centre for Health Protection in Hong Kong. Severe cases were most common in the 51- to 60-year-old age group. The microbiologically confirmed incidence rate was highest for children aged ≤10 years and dropped sharply for the adult population (ρ = -1.0; P < 0.01), but the incidence rate for severe disease was highest for the 51- to 60-year-old age group. For the 51- to 60-year-old age group, the seroprevalence was similar to that for the younger age groups, but the proportion of severe cases relative to seroprevalence was significantly higher than that for 11- to 50-year-old age groups. As judged from the percentage of specimens positive for other respiratory viruses compared with that for pandemic H1N1 virus, the impact of symptomatic disease due to pandemic H1N1 virus was higher than that for other respiratory viruses in people aged ≤50 years. In conclusion, the 51- to 60-year-old age group, which had the highest overall incidence and the highest rate of severe disease but is currently not considered by the World Health Organization to be an at-risk group, should be prioritized for influenza vaccination in areas where universal influenza vaccination is not practiced.

The age-specific cumulative incidence of infection with pandemic influenza H1N1 2009 was similar in various countries prior to vaccination

BACKGROUND

During the influenza pandemic of 2009 estimates of symptomatic and asymptomatic infection were needed to guide vaccination policies and inform other control measures. Serological studies are the most reliable way to measure influenza infection independent of symptoms. We reviewed all published serological studies that estimated the cumulative incidence of infection with pandemic influenza H1N1 2009 prior to the initiation of population-based vaccination against the pandemic strain.

METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We searched for studies that estimated the cumulative incidence of pandemic influenza infection in the wider community. We excluded studies that did not include both pre- and post-pandemic serological sampling and studies that included response to vaccination. We identified 47 potentially eligible studies and included 12 of them in the review. Where there had been a significant first wave, the cumulative incidence of pandemic influenza infection was reported in the range 16%-28% in pre-school aged children, 34%-43% in school aged children and 12%-15% in young adults. Only 2%-3% of older adults were infected. The proportion of the entire population infected ranged from 11%-18%. We re-estimated the cumulative incidence to account for the small proportion of infections that may not have been detected by serology, and performed direct age-standardisation to the study population. For those countries where it could be calculated, this suggested a population cumulative incidence in the range 11%-21%.

CONCLUSIONS AND SIGNIFICANCE

Around the world, the cumulative incidence of infection (which is higher than the cumulative incidence of clinical disease) was below that anticipated prior to the pandemic. Serological studies need to be routine in order to be sufficiently timely to provide support for decisions about vaccination.

Serological survey of antibodies to influenza A viruses in a group of people without a history of influenza vaccination

A serological survey for antibodies to influenza viruses was performed in China on a group of people without a history of influenza vaccination. Using the haemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay, we found seropositivity rates for seasonal H3N2 to be significantly higher than those for seasonal H1N1. Samples positive for antibodies to the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus increased from 0.6% pre-outbreak to 4.5% (p <0.01) at 1 year post-outbreak. Interestingly, HI and neutralization tests showed that 1.4% of people in the group have antibodies recognizing H9N2 avian influenza viruses, suggesting that infection with this subtype may be more common than previously thought.

Epidemiological characteristics of 2009 (H1N1) pandemic influenza based on paired sera from a longitudinal community cohort study

BACKGROUND

While patterns of incidence of clinical influenza have been well described, much uncertainty remains over patterns of incidence of infection. The 2009 pandemic provided both the motivation and opportunity to investigate patterns of mild and asymptomatic infection using serological techniques. However, to date, only broad epidemiological patterns have been defined, based on largely cross-sectional study designs with convenience sampling frameworks.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We conducted a paired serological survey of a cohort of households in Hong Kong, recruited using random digit dialing, and gathered data on severe confirmed cases from the public hospital system (>90% inpatient days). Paired sera were obtained from 770 individuals, aged 3 to 103, along with detailed individual-level and household-level risk factors for infection. Also, we extrapolated beyond the period of our study using time series of severe cases and we simulated alternate study designs using epidemiological parameters obtained from our data. Rates of infection during the period of our study decreased substantially with age: for 3-19 years, the attack rate was 39% (31%-49%); 20-39 years, 8.9% (5.3%-14.7%); 40-59 years, 5.3% (3.5%-8.0%); and 60 years or older, 0.77% (0.18%-4.2%). We estimated parameters for a parsimonious model of infection in which a linear age term and the presence of a child in the household were used to predict the log odds of infection. Patterns of symptom reporting suggested that children experienced symptoms more often than adults. The overall rate of confirmed pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza (H1N1pdm) deaths was 7.6 (6.2-9.5) per 100,000 infections. However, there was substantial and progressive increase in deaths per 100,000 infections with increasing age from 0.66 (0.65-0.86) for 3-19 years up to 220 (50-4,000) for 60 years and older. Extrapolating beyond the period of our study using rates of severe disease, we estimated that 56% (43%-69%) of 3-19 year olds and 16% (13%-18%) of people overall were infected by the pandemic strain up to the end of January 2010. Using simulation, we found that, during 2009, larger cohorts with shorter follow-up times could have rapidly provided similar data to those presented here.

CONCLUSIONS

Should H1N1pdm evolve to be more infectious in older adults, average rates of severe disease per infection could be higher in future waves: measuring such changes in severity requires studies similar to that described here. The benefit of effective vaccination against H1N1pdm infection is likely to be substantial for older individuals. Revised pandemic influenza preparedness plans should include prospective serological cohort studies. Many individuals, of all ages, remained susceptible to H1N1pdm after the main 2009 wave in Hong Kong. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

The seroprevalence of pandemic influenza H1N1 (2009) virus in China

Background

Mainland China experienced pandemic influenza H1N1 (2009) virus (pH1N1) with peak activity during November-December 2009. To understand the geographic extent, risk factors, and attack rate of pH1N1 infection in China we conducted a nationwide serological survey to determine the prevalence of antibodies to pH1N1.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Stored serum samples (n = 2,379) collected during 2006-2008 were used to estimate baseline serum reactogenicity to pH1N1. In January 2010, we used a multistage-stratified random sampling method to select 50,111 subjects who met eligibility criteria and collected serum samples and administered a standardized questionnaire. Antibody response to pH1N1 was measured using haemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay and the weighted seroprevalence was calculated using the Taylor series linearization method. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to examine risk factors for pH1N1 seropositivity. Baseline seroprevalence of pH1N1 antibody (HI titer ≥40) was 1.2%. The weighted seroprevalence of pH1N1 among the Chinese population was 21.5%(vaccinated: 62.0%; unvaccinated: 17.1%). Among unvaccinated participants, those aged 6-15 years (32.9%) and 16-24 years (30.3%) had higher seroprevalence compared with participants aged 25–59 years (10.7%) and ≥60 years (9.9%, P<0.0001). Children in kindergarten and students had higher odds of seropositivity than children in family care (OR: 1.36 and 2.05, respectively). We estimated that 207.7 million individuals (15.9%) experienced pH1N1 infection in China.

Conclusions/Significance

The Chinese population had low pre-existing immunity to pH1N1 and experienced a relatively high attack rate in 2009 of this virus. We recommend routine control measures such as vaccination to reduce transmission and spread of seasonal and pandemic influenza viruses.

Did modeling overestimate the transmission potential of pandemic (H1N1-2009)? Sample size estimation for post-epidemic seroepidemiological studies

BACKGROUND

Seroepidemiological studies before and after the epidemic wave of H1N1-2009 are useful for estimating population attack rates with a potential to validate early estimates of the reproduction number, R, in modeling studies.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Since the final epidemic size, the proportion of individuals in a population who become infected during an epidemic, is not the result of a binomial sampling process because infection events are not independent of each other, we propose the use of an asymptotic distribution of the final size to compute approximate 95% confidence intervals of the observed final size. This allows the comparison of the observed final sizes against predictions based on the modeling study (R = 1.15, 1.40 and 1.90), which also yields simple formulae for determining sample sizes for future seroepidemiological studies. We examine a total of eleven published seroepidemiological studies of H1N1-2009 that took place after observing the peak incidence in a number of countries. Observed seropositive proportions in six studies appear to be smaller than that predicted from R = 1.40; four of the six studies sampled serum less than one month after the reported peak incidence. The comparison of the observed final sizes against R = 1.15 and 1.90 reveals that all eleven studies appear not to be significantly deviating from the prediction with R = 1.15, but final sizes in nine studies indicate overestimation if the value R = 1.90 is used.

CONCLUSIONS

Sample sizes of published seroepidemiological studies were too small to assess the validity of model predictions except when R = 1.90 was used. We recommend the use of the proposed approach in determining the sample size of post-epidemic seroepidemiological studies, calculating the 95% confidence interval of observed final size, and conducting relevant hypothesis testing instead of the use of methods that rely on a binomial proportion.

Seroprevalence of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 in pregnant women in China: an observational study

Background

We investigated the seropositive rates and persistence of antibody against pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus (pH1N1) in pregnant women and voluntary blood donors after the second wave of the pandemic in Nanjing, China.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Serum samples of unvaccinated pregnant women (n = 720) and voluntary blood donors (n = 320) were collected after the second wave of 2009 pandemic in Nanjing. All samples were tested against pH1N1 strain (A/California/7/2009) with hemagglutination inhibition assay. A significant decline in seropositive rates, from above 50% to about 20%, was observed in pregnant women and voluntary blood donors fifteen weeks after the second wave of the pandemic. A quarter of the samples were tested against a seasonal H1N1 strain (A/Brisbane/59/2007). The antibody titers against pH1N1 strain were found to correlate positively with those against seasonal H1N1 strain. The correlation was modest but statistically significant.

Conclusions and Significance

The high seropositive rates in both pregnant women and voluntary blood donors suggested that the pH1N1 virus had widely spread in these two populations. Immunity derived from natural infection seemed not to be persistent well.