Long-term trends in motor vehicle emissions in u.s. urban areas

Los Angeles Basin's air quality transformation: a long-term investigation on the impacts of PM regulations on the trends of ultrafine particles and co-pollutants

This study investigates the long-term trends of ambient ultrafine particles (UFPs) and associated airborne pollutants in the Los Angeles Basin from 2007 to 2022, focusing on the indirect effects of regulations on UFP levels. The particle number concentration (PNC) of UFPs was compiled from previous studies in the area, and associated co-pollutant data, including nitrogen oxides (NOx), carbon monoxide (CO), elemental carbon (EC), organic carbon (OC), and ozone (O3), were obtained from the chemical speciation network (CSN) database. Over the study period, a general decrease was noted in the PNC of UFPs, NOx, EC, and OC, except for CO, the concentration trends of which did not exhibit a consistent pattern. UFPs, NOx, EC, and OC were positively correlated, while O3 had a negative correlation, especially with NOx. Our analysis discerned two distinct subperiods in pollutant trends: 2007-2015 and 2016-2022. For example, there was an overall decrease in the PNC of UFPs at an annual rate of -850.09 particles/cm3/year. This rate was more pronounced during the first sub-period (2007-2015) at -1814.9 particles/cm3/year and then slowed to -227.21 particles/cm3/year in the second sub-period (2016-2023). The first sub-period (2007-2015) significantly influenced pollutant level changes, exhibiting more pronounced and statistically significant changes than the second sub-period (2016-2022). Since 2016, almost all primary pollutants have stabilized, indicating a reduced impact of current regulations, and emphasizing the need for stricter standards. In addition, the study included an analysis of Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) trends from 2007 to 2022 within the Los Angeles Basin. Despite the general increase in VMT, current regulations and cleaner technologies seem to have successfully mitigated the potential increase in increase in PNC. Overall, while a decline in UFPs and co-pollutant levels was observed, the apparent stabilization of these levels underscores the need for more stringent regulatory measures and advanced emission standards.

Spatial and temporal analysis of influential factors on motor vehicle carbon monoxide emissions in China considering emissions trading scheme

The number of cars is increasing every year and the environmental aspects of transport are becoming a hot topic. The spatial and temporal patterns of motor vehicle carbon monoxide (CO) emissions are still unclear due to the unbalanced economic development and heterogeneous geographic conditions of China. With the objective of realizing a reduction in motor vehicle CO emissions, his study explores the transport carbon emission reduction pathways of China from motor vehicle CO emission. Firstly, the entropy method is adopted to comprehensively evaluate the CO emissions from motor vehicles in each province; secondly, the development of a Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) model facilitates the examination of the spatiotemporal dynamics pertaining to the influencing factors of motor vehicle CO emissions within each province.; finally, the characteristics of motor vehicle CO emissions in ETS pilot areas and non-ETS pilot areas are compared. The results show that: (1) After the completion of the six ETS pilot areas in 2011, the CO emission from motor vehicles is reduced by 18% compared with 2010.(2)The entropy method shows that the largest CO emissions from motor vehicles are from Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong and other provinces with high economic levels.(3) The results of the GTWR model show that the positive effects of economic level, population size, road mileage intensity and motor vehicle intensity on motor vehicle CO emissions are decreasing year by year. The negative effect of metro line intensity on CO emission decreases year by year. This study can help decision makers to identify the high emission areas, understand the influencing factors, and formulate emission reduction measures to achieve the purpose of carbon emission reduction in transport.

Revisiting regional and seasonal variations in decadal carbon monoxide variability: Global reversal of growth rate

Carbon monoxide (CO) is one of the important trace gases in the atmosphere capturing the evolution of chemical properties of the troposphere. Here we analyze the growth rates of CO during the period of 1991-2020 using in situ measurements from the World Meteorological Organization's (WMO) Global Atmospheric Watch (GAW) program. The analysis of trends has been done on different spatial and temporal scales. Our analysis supports the decline in the overall CO mixing ratios over the globe but inter-decadal and regional trend analysis has shown heterogeneous changes in the given period of study. On average, there has been a decrease of -16.22 ± 1.92 ppb and -4.5 ± 0.64 ppb observed at the sites in the northern hemisphere (NH) and southern hemisphere (SH), respectively. This decline occurred at rates of -0.80 ± 0.12 ppb yr-1 in the NH and - 0.12 ± 0.03 ppb yr-1 in the SH. Bifurcating the annual trends for seasonal analysis reveals the impact of emissions, chemistry and atmospheric transport on CO variation over different regional clusters of stations. Seasonal trend analysis provides further evidence regarding heterogeneous patterns in the South-East Asia region. Our study highlights a slowdown in CO decline during the 2011-2020 decade when compared to the rate of decrease observed in 2001-2010. This is inferred from the variability and much slower decline of CO emissions across different regions, contributing to a weakening in CO trends.

Urban flask measurements of CO2ff and CO to identify emission sources at different site types in Auckland, New Zealand

As part of the CarbonWatch-NZ research programme, air samples were collected at 28 sites around Auckland, New Zealand, to determine the atmospheric ratio (RCO) of excess (local enhancement over background) carbon monoxide to fossil CO2 (CO2ff). Sites were categorized into seven types (background, forest, industrial, suburban, urban, downwind and motorway) to observe RCO around Auckland. Motorway flasks observed RCO of 14 ± 1 ppb ppm-1 and were used to evaluate traffic RCO. The similarity between suburban (14 ± 1 ppb ppm-1) and traffic RCO suggests that traffic dominates suburban CO2ff emissions during daytime hours, the period of flask collection. The lower urban RCO (11 ± 1 ppb ppm-1) suggests that urban CO2ff emissions are comprised of more than just traffic, with contributions from residential, commercial and industrial sources, all with a lower RCO than traffic. Finally, the downwind sites were believed to best represent RCO for Auckland City overall (11 ± 1 ppb ppm-1). We demonstrate that the initial discrepancy between the downwind RCO and Auckland's estimated daytime inventory RCO (15 ppb ppm-1) can be attributed to an overestimation in inventory traffic CO emissions. After revision based on our observed motorway RCO, the revised inventory RCO (12 ppb ppm-1) is consistent with our observations. This article is part of the Theo Murphy meeting issue 'Radiocarbon in the Anthropocene'.

Diversity of organic components in airborne waste discharged from sewer pipe repairs

Air-discharged waste from commonly used trenchless technologies of sewer pipe repairs is an emerging and poorly characterized source of urban pollution. This study reports on the molecular-level characterization of the atmospherically discharged aqueous-phase waste condensate samples collected at four field sites of the sewer pipe repairs. The molecular composition of organic species in these samples was investigated using reversed-phase liquid chromatography coupled with a photodiode array detector and a high-resolution mass spectrometer equipped with interchangeable atmospheric pressure photoionization and electrospray ionization sources. The waste condensate components comprise a complex mixture of organic species that can partition between gas-, aqueous-, and solid-phases when water evaporates from the air-discharged waste. Identified organic species have broad variability in molecular weight, molecular structures, and carbon oxidation state, which also varied between the waste samples. All condensates contained complex mixtures of oxidized organics, N- and S-containing organics, condensed aromatics, and their functionalized derivatives that are directly released to the atmospheric environment during installations. Furthermore, semi-volatile, low volatility, and extremely low volatility organic compounds comprise 75-85% of the total compounds identified in the waste condensates. Estimates of the component-specific viscosities suggest that upon evaporation of water waste material would form the semi-solid and solid phases. The low volatilities and high viscosities of chemical components in these waste condensates will contribute to the formation of atmospheric secondary organic aerosols and atmospheric solid nanoplastic particles. Lastly, selected components expected in the condensates were quantified and found to be present at high concentrations (1-20 mg L-1) that may exceed regulatory limits.

Anthropogenic Secondary Organic Aerosol and Ozone Production from Asphalt-Related Emissions

Liquid asphalt is a petroleum-derived substance commonly used in construction activities. Recent work has identified lower volatility, reactive organic carbon from asphalt as an overlooked source of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) precursor emissions. Here, we leverage potential emission estimates and usage data to construct a bottom-up inventory of asphalt-related emissions in the United States. In 2018, we estimate that hot-mix, warm-mix, emulsified, cutback, and roofing asphalt generated ~380 Gg (317 Gg - 447 Gg) of organic compound emissions. The impacts of these emissions on anthropogenic SOA and ozone throughout the contiguous United States are estimated using photochemical modeling. In several major cities, asphalt-related emissions can increase modeled summertime SOA, on average, by 0.1 - 0.2 μg m-3 (2-4% of SOA) and may reach up to 0.5 μg m-3 at noontime on select days. The influence of asphalt-related emissions on modeled ozone are generally small (~0.1 ppb). We estimate that asphalt paving-related emissions are half of what they were nearly 50 years ago, largely due to the concerted efforts to reduce emissions from cutback asphalts. If on-road mobile emissions continue their multidecadal decline, contributions of urban SOA from evaporative and non-road mobile sources will continue to grow in relative importance.

Comparison and implications of the carbonaceous fractions under different environments in polluted central plains in China: Insight from the lockdown of COVID-19 outbreak

Before and during the COVID-19 outbreak in the heated winter season of 2019, the carbonaceous fractions including organic carbon (OC), elemental carbon (EC), OC1-4, and EC1-5 were investigated between normal (November 1, 2019, to January 24, 2020) and lockdown (January 25, to February 29, 2020) periods in polluted regions of northern Henan Province. In comparison to urban site, four rural sites showed higher concentrations of carbonaceous components, especially secondary OC (SOC); the concentration of SOC in rural sites was 1.5-3.4 times that in the urban site. During the lockdown period, SOC in urban site decreased slightly, while it increased significantly in rural sites. NO₂ has a significant effect on SOC generation, particularly in normal period when NO₂ concentrations were high. Nevertheless, NO₂ significantly decreased, and the elevated O₃ (increased by 103-138%) contributed considerably to the generation of SOC during lockdown. Relative humidity (RH) promoted SOC production when RH was below 60%, but SOC was negatively correlated or uncorrelated with RH when RH exceeded 60%. Additionally, RH has a more pronounced effect on SOC during lockdown. The contribution of gasoline vehicle emissions decreases significantly in both urban and rural sites (3-12%) due to the significant reduction of anthropogenic activities during lockdown, although the urban site remained with the biggest contributions (37%). These results provide innovative insights into the variations in carbonaceous aerosols and SOC generation during the unique time when anthropogenic sources were significantly reduced and illustrate the differences in pollution characteristics and sources of carbonaceous fractions in different environments.

Impact of COVID-19 lockdown on carbonaceous aerosols in a polluted city: Composition characterization, source apportionment, influence factors of secondary formation

Carbonaceous fractions throughout the normal period and lockdown period (LP) before and during COVID-19 outbreak were analyzed in a polluted city, Zhengzhou, China. During LP, fine particulate matters, elemental carbon (EC), and secondary organic aerosol (SOC) concentrations fell significantly (29%, 32% and 21%), whereas organic carbon (OC) only decreased by 4%. Furthermore, the mean OC/EC ratio increased (from 3.8 to 5.4) and the EC fractions declined dramatically, indicating a reduction in vehicle emission contribution. The fact that OC1-3, EC, and EC1 had good correlations suggested that OC1-3 emanated from primary emissions. OC4 was partly from secondary generation, and increased correlations of OC4 with OC1-3 during LP indicated a decrease in the share of SOC. SOC was more impacted by NO2 throughout the research phase, thereby the concentrations were lower during LP when NO2 levels were lower. SOC and relative humidity (RH) were found to be positively associated only when RH was below 80% and 60% during the normal period (NP) and LP, respectively. SOC, Coal combustion, gasoline vehicles, biomass burning, diesel vehicles were identified as major sources by the Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) model. Contribution of SOC apportioned by PMF was 3.4 and 3.0 μg/m3, comparable to the calculated findings (3.8 and 3.0 μg/m3) during the two periods. During LP, contributions from gasoline vehicles dropped the most, from 47% to 37% and from 7.1 to 4.3 μg/m3, contribution of biomass burning and diesel vehicles fell by 3% (0.6 μg/m3) and 1% (0.4 μg/m3), and coal combustion concentrations remained nearly constant. The findings of this study highlight the immense importance of anthropogenic source reduction in carbonaceous component variations and SOC generation, and provide significant insight into the temporal variations and sources of carbonaceous fractions in polluted cities.

Gas- and Particle-Phase Amide Emissions from Cooking: Mechanisms and Air Quality Impacts

The high-temperature cooking of protein-rich foods represents an important but poorly constrained source of nitrogen-containing gases and particles to indoor and outdoor atmospheres. For example, panfrying meat may form and emit these nitrogen-containing compounds through complex chemistry occurring between heated proteins and cooking oils. Here, we simulate this cooking process by heating amino acids together with triglycerides. We explore their interactions across different temperatures, triglyceride types, and amino acid precursors to form amide-containing products. Ammonia, arising from the thermal degradation of amino acids, may react with a triglyceride's ester linkages, forming amides and promoting de-esterification reactions that break the triglyceride into volatilizable products. Additionally, triglycerides may thermally oxidize and fragment as they are heated, and the resulting oxygenated breakdown products may react with ammonia to form amides. We observed evidence for amide formation through both of these pathways, including gas-phase emissions of C_2-11H_5-23NO species, whose emission factors ranged from 33 to 813 μg total gas-phase amides per gram of amino acid precursor. Comparable quantities of particle-phase oleamide (C₁₈H₃₅NO) were emitted, ranging from 45 to 218 μg/g. The observed amide products had variable predicted toxicities, highlighting the importance of understanding their emissions from cooking and their ultimate inhalation exposure risks.

Volatile Chemical Product Enhancements to Criteria Pollutants in the United States

Volatile chemical products (VCPs) are a significant source of reactive organic carbon emissions in the United States with a substantial fraction (>20% by mass) serving as secondary organic aerosol (SOA) precursors. Here, we incorporate a new nationwide VCP inventory into the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model with VCP-specific updates to better model air quality impacts. Model results indicate that VCPs mostly enhance anthropogenic SOA in densely populated areas with population-weighted annual average SOA increasing 15-30% in Southern California and New York City due to VCP emissions (contribution of 0.2-0.5 μg m^-3). Annually, VCP emissions enhance total population-weighted PM_2.5 by ∼5% in California, ∼3% in New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut, and 1-2% in most other states. While the maximum daily 8 h ozone enhancements from VCP emissions are more modest, their influence can cause a several ppb increase on select days in major cities. Printing Inks, Cleaning Products, and Paints and Coatings product use categories contribute ∼75% to the modeled VCP-derived SOA and Cleaning Products, Paints and Coatings, and Personal Care Products contribute ∼81% to the modeled VCP-derived ozone. Overall, VCPs enhance multiple criteria pollutants throughout the United States with the largest impacts in urban cores.

Tailpipe and Nontailpipe Emission Factors and Source Contributions of PM10 on Major Freeways in the Los Angeles Basin

In this study, the emission factors of PM₁₀ and its chemical constituents from various contributing sources including nontailpipe and tailpipe emissions were estimated on two interstate freeways in the Los Angeles basin. PM₁₀ samples were collected on the I-110 and I-710 freeways as well as at the University of Southern California (USC) campus as the urban background site, while freeway and urban background CO₂ levels were measured simultaneously. PM₁₀ samples were analyzed for their content of chemical species which were used to estimate the emission factors of PM₁₀ and its constituents on both I-110 and I-710 freeways. The estimated values were employed to determine the emission factors for light (LDV) and heavy-duty vehicles (HDV). The quantified species were also processed by the positive matrix factorization (PMF) model to produce PM₁₀ freeway source profiles and their contribution to PM₁₀ mass concentrations. Using the PMF factor profiles and emission factors on the two freeways, we characterized the emission factors for light-duty and heavy-duty vehicles by each nontailpipe source. Our findings indicated higher nontailpipe emission factors of PM₁₀ and metal elements on the I-710 freeway compared to the I-110 freeway, due to the higher fraction of heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) on that freeway. Furthermore, the generation of nontailpipe PM₁₀ from resuspension of road dust was twice of tire and brake wear. The results of this study provide significant insights into PM₁₀ freeway emissions and particularly the overall contribution of nontailpipe and tailpipe sources in Los Angeles, which can be helpful to modelers and air quality officials in assessing the importance of individual traffic-related emissions on the overall population exposure.

Carbon Monoxide Emissions from the Washington, DC, and Baltimore Metropolitan Area: Recent Trend and COVID-19 Anomaly

We analyze airborne measurements of atmospheric CO concentration from 70 flights conducted over six years (2015-2020) using an inverse model to quantify the CO emissions from the Washington, DC, and Baltimore metropolitan areas. We found that CO emissions have been declining in the area at a rate of ≈-4.5 % a^-1 since 2015 or ≈-3.1 % a^-1 since 2016. In addition, we found that CO emissions show a "Sunday" effect, with emissions being lower, on average, than for the rest of the week and that the seasonal cycle is no larger than 16 %. Our results also show that the trend derived from the NEI agrees well with the observed trend, but that NEI daytime-adjusted emissions are ≈50 % larger than our estimated emissions. In 2020, measurements collected during the shutdown in activity related to the COVID-19 pandemic indicate a significant drop in CO emissions of 16 % relative to the expected emissions trend from the previous years, or 23 % relative to the mean of 2016 to February 2020. Our results also indicate a larger reduction in April than in May. Last, we show that this reduction in CO emissions was driven mainly by a reduction in traffic.

Aging of Volatile Organic Compounds in October 2017 Northern California Wildfire Plumes

In the western United States, the number and severity of large wildfires have been growing for decades. Biomass burning (BB) is a major source of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) to the atmosphere both globally and regionally. Following emission, BB VOCs are oxidized while being transported downwind, producing ozone, secondary organic aerosols, and secondary hazardous VOCs. In this research, we measured VOCs using proton transfer reaction time-of-flight mass spectrometry (PTR-ToF-MS) in an urban area 55-65 km downwind of the October 2017 Northern California wildfires. Nonaromatic oxygenated compounds were the dominant component of BB VOCs measured. In the smoke plumes, the VOCs account for 70-75% of the total observed organic carbon, with the remainder being particulate matter (with a diameter of <2.5 μm, PM_2.5). We show that the correlation of VOCs with furan (primary BB VOC) and maleic anhydride (secondary BB VOC) can indicate the origin of the VOCs. This was further confirmed by the diurnal variations of the VOCs and their concentration-weighted trajectories. Oxidation during transport consumed highly reactive compounds including benzenoids, furanoids, and terpenoids and produced more oxygenated VOCs. Furthermore, wildfire VOCs altered the ozone formation regime and raised the O₃ levels in the San Francisco Bay Area.

Modeled Emission of Hydroxyl and Ozone Reactivity from Evaporation of Fragrance Mixtures

Volatile chemical products (VCPs) account for increasing fractions of organic carbon emitted to the atmosphere, particularly in urban areas. Fragrances are potentially reactive components that are added to many VCPs. To better constrain these emissions, 11 commercially available liquid fragrance mixtures were characterized for their composition and their evaporation modeled. Emissions of mass, hydroxyl reactivity, and ozone reactivity were estimated by modeling under four different scenarios. Fragrance compounds were generally less than one-half the mass of fragrance mixtures, with the balance comprised of solvents and plasticizers and unresolved mass thought to be dominated by plasticizers. The results showed that terpenes and terpenoids account for nearly all of the emitted mass and reactivity while only comprising ∼10% w/w on average of the liquid fragrance mixtures. Most of the reactivity is emitted within hours, with ozone reactivity evolving more rapidly than OH reactivity and comprised almost entirely of terpenes. Limonene, a common fragrance constituent, dominates the reactivity of emitted carbon. Generally, 20-40% of the potential hydroxyl reactivity contained in the fragrance mixture does not evaporate on time scales sufficient to have an impact on local or regional air quality.

Refueling emission of volatile organic compounds from China 6 gasoline vehicles

Vehicular refueling emission is a potential source of urban atmospheric volatile organic compounds (VOCs) that is not well understood and controlled. China 6 vehicles have been equipped with the onboard refueling vapor recovery (ORVR) system to cut down refueling emissions, while the emission characteristics and reduction effectiveness are rarely reported. In this study, we conducted laboratory tests to measure the refueling emissions from ten China 6 vehicles and three China 5 vehicles (refueling-emission-uncontrolled, REU) and developed an inventory in a typical middle-sized Chinese city (Langfang) to explore the emission reduction resulted from relevant policies. Compared with headspace vapor and refueling vapor from REU vehicles, the emission profiles for China 6 vehicles are consist of considerably higher proportions of small alkanes and alkenes (C2-C3) and lower proportions of C6-C8 hydrocarbons. Such differences indicate that the headspace vapor profiles are incapable of representing the refueling emission for China 6 vehicles. The market-share-weighting emission factors (EFs) of total hydrocarbons (THCs) and total VOCs for China 6 vehicles are 11.2 mg/L and 6.4 mg/L, respectively, corresponding to control efficiency of approximately 98.8% compared with the REU vehicles. Based on the real-world EFs and the fuel consumption in Langfang, a refueling emission inventory with high spatiotemporal resolution is developed. The total refueling emission of THCs in Langfang is approximately 190.6 tons in 2018 and will likely decline to 25.0 tons in 2035. The implementation of the ORVR will contribute to 90% of the refueling emission reduction in 2035.

Ambient PM2.5 organic and elemental carbon in New York City: Changing source contributions during a decade of large emission reductions

Fine particle (PM_2.5) exposure is a public health issue affecting millions of people worldwide. In New York State, significant emission reductions occurred during the past decades due to fuel switching, increased renewable energy, and transformations in buildings and transportation. Between 2002 and 2018, anthropogenic emissions of CO, NO_x, SO₂, VOCs, and primary PM_2.5 declined by 58%, 61%, 89%, 47%, and 29%, respectively, in New York and three adjoining states. Ambient PM_2.5 mass concentrations decreased but contributions of source types to changes in PM_2.5 elemental carbon (EC) and organic carbon (OC) are incompletely understood. Receptor modeling was used to estimate changing source contributions to EC and OC in New York City (NYC) between 2007 and 2019. Source identification was facilitated by incorporating measurements of CO, NO, NO₂, O₃, SO_2, and speciated hydrocarbons (1,3-butadiene, n-butane, isobutane, n-pentane, isopentane, isoprene, benzene, toluene, xylenes, acetaldehyde, and formaldehyde). Hydrocarbon species identified mobile-source emissions, evaporative emissions, biogenics, and photochemical secondary organic aerosol. At three study locations, predicted reductions of TC (OC + EC) summed over all source types were 1.3 ± 0.2 μg m^-3, compared with a measured TC reduction of 1.5 ± 0.2 μg m^-3. Declining sulfate concentrations and cleaner mobile sources together reduced the predicted average TC by a combined 1 μg m^-3. Smaller changes occurred in other source contributions, e.g., 0.15 ± 0.01 μg m^-3 reduction likely in response to NYC regulations related to heating fuel oil. Biomass burning PM_2.5 increased between 2007 and 2011, then declined between 2015 and 2019. Reductions contrast with a non-significant increase of 0.05 μg m^-3 in photochemical TC. Further opportunities to decrease PM_2.5 concentrations include wood burning and photochemical-related OC. Continued temporal analysis and source apportionment will be needed to track changes in air quality and source contributions as jurisdictions expand renewable energy and energy efficiency goals.Implications: Large emission reductions that occurred in the eastern U.S. between 2002 and 2019 lowered average fine particle concentrations in New York City by a factor of two. Secondary organic aerosol concentrations declined as sulfate decreased but increased non-significantly with rising ozone. Cleaner mobile-source emissions lowered elemental and organic carbon concentrations. Opportunities for further reductions of PM_2.5 concentrations include biomass burning and photochemical secondary aerosol.

From COVID-19 to future electrification: Assessing traffic impacts on air quality by a machine-learning model

The large fluctuations in traffic during the COVID-19 pandemic provide an unparalleled opportunity to assess vehicle emission control efficacy. Here we develop a random-forest regression model, based on the large volume of real-time observational data during COVID-19, to predict surface-level NO2, O3, and fine particle concentration in the Los Angeles megacity. Our model exhibits high fidelity in reproducing pollutant concentrations in the Los Angeles Basin and identifies major factors controlling each species. During the strictest lockdown period, traffic reduction led to decreases in NO2 and particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters <2.5 μm by -30.1% and -17.5%, respectively, but a 5.7% increase in O3 Heavy-duty truck emissions contribute primarily to these variations. Future traffic-emission controls are estimated to impose similar effects as observed during the COVID-19 lockdown, but with smaller magnitude. Vehicular electrification will achieve further alleviation of NO2 levels.

Evaluation of Nitrogen Oxide Emission Inventories and Trends for On-Road Gasoline and Diesel Vehicles

On-road vehicles continue to be a major source of nitrogen oxide (NO_x) emissions in the United States and in other countries around the world. The goal of this study is to compare and evaluate emission inventories and long-term trends in vehicular NO_x emissions. Taxable fuel sales data and in-use measurements of emission factors are combined to generate fuel-based NO_x emission inventories for California and the US over the period 1990-2020. While gasoline and diesel fuel sales increased over the last three decades, total on-road NO_x emissions declined by approximately 70% since 1990, with a steeper rate of decrease after 2004 when heavy-duty diesel NO_x emission controls finally started to gain traction. In California, additional steps have been taken to accelerate the introduction of new heavy-duty engines equipped with selective catalytic reduction systems, resulting in a 48% decrease in diesel NO_x emissions in California compared to a 32% decrease nationally since 2010. California EMFAC model predictions are in good agreement with fuel-based inventory results for gasoline engines and are higher than fuel-based estimates for diesel engines prior to the mid-2010s. Similar to the findings of recent observational and modeling studies, there are discrepancies between the fuel-based inventory and national MOVES model estimates. MOVES predicts a steeper decrease in NO_x emissions and predicts higher NO_x emissions from gasoline engines over the entire period from 1990 to 2020.

Evolution of Vehicle Emission Factors in a Megacity Affected by Extensive Biofuel Use: Results of Tunnel Measurements in São Paulo, Brazil

Since 2001, four emission measurement campaigns have been conducted in multiple traffic tunnels in the megacity of São Paulo, Brazil, an area with a fleet of more than 7 million vehicles running on fuels with high biofuel contents: gasoline + ethanol for light-duty vehicles (LDVs) and diesel + biodiesel for heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs). Emission factors for LDVs and HDVs were calculated using a carbon balance method, the pollutants considered including nitrogen oxides (NO_x), carbon monoxide (CO), and sulfur dioxide, as well as carbon dioxide and ethanol. From 2001 to 2018, fleet-average emission factors for LDVs and HDVs, respectively, were found to decrease by 4.9 and 5.1% per year for CO and by 5.5 and 4.2% per year for NO_x. These reductions demonstrate that regulations for vehicle emissions adopted in Brazil in the last 30 years improved air quality in the megacity of São Paulo significantly, albeit with a clear delay. These findings, especially those for CO, indicate that official emission inventories underestimate vehicle emissions. Here, we demonstrated that the adoption of emission factors calculated under real-world conditions can dramatically improve air quality modeling in the region.

Reactive organic carbon emissions from volatile chemical products

Volatile chemical products (VCPs) are an increasingly important source of anthropogenic reactive organic carbon (ROC) emissions. Among these sources are everyday items, such as personal care products, general cleaners, architectural coatings, pesticides, adhesives, and printing inks. Here, we develop VCPy, a new framework to model organic emissions from VCPs throughout the United States, including spatial allocation to regional and local scales. Evaporation of a species from a VCP mixture in the VCPy framework is a function of the compound-specific physiochemical properties that govern volatilization and the timescale relevant for product evaporation. We introduce two terms to describe these processes: evaporation timescale and use timescale. Using this framework, predicted national per capita organic emissions from VCPs are 9.5 kg per person per year (6.4 kg C per person per year) for 2016, which translates to 3.05 Tg (2.06 Tg C), making VCPs a dominant source of anthropogenic organic emissions in the United States. Uncertainty associated with this framework and sensitivity to select parameters were characterized through Monte Carlo analysis, resulting in a 95 % confidence interval of national VCP emissions for 2016 of 2.61-3.53 Tg (1.76-2.38 Tg C). This nationwide total is broadly consistent with the U.S. EPA's 2017 National Emission Inventory (NEI); however, county-level and categorical estimates can differ substantially from NEI values. VCPy predicts higher VCP emissions than the NEI for approximately half of all counties, with 5 % of all counties having greater than 55 % higher emissions. Categorically, application of the VCPy framework yields higher emissions for personal care products (150 %) and paints and coatings (25 %) when compared to the NEI, whereas pesticides (-54 %) and printing inks (-13 %) feature lower emissions. An observational evaluation indicates emissions of key species from VCPs are reproduced with high fidelity using the VCPy framework (normalized mean bias of -13 % with r =0.95). Sector-wide, the effective secondary organic aerosol yield and maximum incremental reactivity of VCPs are 5.3 % by mass and 1.58 gO3 g-1, respectively, indicating VCPs are an important, and likely to date underrepresented, source of secondary pollution in urban environments.

Assessment of mobile source air toxics in an Environmental Justice Denver community adjacent to a freeway

Air pollutant concentrations are often higher near major roadways than in the surrounding environments owing to emissions from on-road mobile sources. In this study, we quantified the gradient in black carbon (BC) and air toxics concentrations from the I-70 freeway in the Elyria-Swansea environmental justice neighborhood in Denver, Colorado, during three measurement campaigns in 2017-2018. The average hourly upwind-downwind gradient of BC concentrations from the roadway was 500-800 ng/m³, equal to an increment of approximately 30-80% above local background levels within 180 m of the freeway. When integrated over all wind directions, the gradients were smaller, approximately 150-300 ng/m³ (~11-18%) over the course of nearly four months of measurements. No statistically significant gradient in air toxics (e.g., benzene, formaldehyde, etc.) was found, likely because the uncertainties in the mean concentrations were larger than the magnitude of the gradient (<25%). This finding is in contrast to some earlier studies in which small gradients of benzene and other VOCs were found. We estimate that sample sizes of at least 100 individual measurements would have been required to estimate mean concentrations with sufficient certainty to quantify gradients on the order of ±10% uncertainty. These gradient estimates are smaller than those found in previous studies over the past two decades; more stringent emissions standards, the local fleet age distribution, and/or the steady turnover of the vehicle fleet may be reducing the overall impact of roadway emissions on near-road communities. Implications: Gradients of near-road pollution may be declining in the near-road environment as tailpipe emissions from the vehicle fleet continue to decrease. Near-road concentration gradients of mobile source air toxics, including benzene, 1,3-butadiene, and ethylbenzene, will require higher sample sizes to quantify as emissions continue to decline.

Humidity-Dependent Phase State of Gasoline Vehicle Emission-Related Aerosols

The phase states of primarily emitted and secondarily formed aerosols from gasoline vehicle exhausts were investigated by quantifying the particle rebound fraction (f). The rebound behaviors of gasoline vehicle emission-related aerosols varied with engines, fuel types, and photochemical aging time, showing distinguished differences from biogenic secondary organic aerosols. The nonliquid-to-liquid phase transition of primary aerosols emitted from port fuel injection (PFI) and gasoline direct injection (GDI) vehicles started at a relative humidity (RH) = 50 and 60%, and liquefaction was accomplished at 60 and 70%, respectively. The RH at which f declined to 0.5 decreased from 70 to 65% for the PFI case with 92# fuel, corresponding to the photochemical aging time from 0.37 to 4.62 days. For the GDI case, such RH enhanced from 60 to 65%. Our results can be used to imply the phase state of traffic-related aerosols and further understand their roles in urban atmospheric chemistry. Taking Beijing, China, as an example, traffic-related aerosols were mainly nonliquid during winter with the majority ambient RH below 50%, whereas they were mostly liquid during the morning rush hour of summer, and traffic-related secondary aerosols fluctuated between nonliquid and liquid during the daytime and tended to be liquid at night with increased ambient RH.

Identifying Volatile Chemical Product Tracer Compounds in U.S. Cities

With traffic emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) decreasing rapidly over the last decades, the contributions of the emissions from other source categories, such as volatile chemical products (VCPs), have become more apparent in urban air. In this work, in situ measurements of various VOCs are reported for New York City, Pittsburgh, Chicago, and Denver. The magnitude of different emission sources relative to traffic is determined by measuring the urban enhancement of individual compounds relative to the enhancement of benzene, a known tracer of fossil fuel in the United States. The enhancement ratios of several VCP compounds to benzene correlate well with population density (R² ∼ 0.6-0.8). These observations are consistent with the expectation that some human activity should correlate better with the population density than transportation emissions, due to the lower per capita rate of driving in denser cities. Using these data, together with a bottom-up fuel-based inventory of vehicle emissions and volatile chemical products (FIVE-VCP) inventory, we identify tracer compounds for different VCP categories: decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5-siloxane) for personal care products, monoterpenes for fragrances, p-dichlorobenzene for insecticides, D4-siloxane for adhesives, para-chlorobenzotrifluoride (PCBTF) for solvent-based coatings, and Texanol for water-based coatings. Furthermore, several other compounds are identified (e.g., ethanol) that correlate with population density and originate from multiple VCP sources. Ethanol and fragrances are among the most abundant and reactive VOCs associated with VCP emissions.

Long-term trends in the contribution of PM2.5 sources to organic carbon (OC) in the Los Angeles basin and the effect of PM emission regulations

This study aimed to investigate the long-term variations in the contributions of emission sources to ambient PM_2.5 organic carbon (OC) in central Los Angeles (CELA) and Riverside using the Chemical Speciation Network (CSN) database in the 2005-2015 period, during which several federal and state PM-based regulations were implemented to reduce tailpipe emissions in the region. The measured concentrations of OC, OC volatility fractions (i.e., OC₁, OC₂, and OC₃), elemental carbon (EC), ozone (O₃), sulfate, the ratio of potassium ion to potassium (K⁺/K), and selected metal elements were used as the input to the positive matrix factorization (PMF) model. PMF resolved tailpipe emissions, non-tailpipe emissions, secondary organic aerosols (SOA), biomass burning, and local industrial activities as the main sources contributing to ambient OC at both sampling sites. Vehicular exhaust emissions, non-tailpipe emissions, and SOA were dominant sources of OC across our sampling sites, accounting cumulatively for more than 80% of total OC mass throughout the study period. Our findings showed a significant reduction in the absolute and relative contributions of tailpipe emissions to the ambient OC levels in CELA and Riverside over the time period of 2005-2015. The contribution of exhaust emissions to total OC in CELA decreased from 3.5 µg m^-3 (49%) in 2005 to 1.5 µg m^-3 (34%) in 2015, while similar trends were observed at Riverside during this period. These reductions are mainly attributed to the implementation of several federal, state, and local air quality regulations targeting tailpipe emissions in the area. The implementation of these regulations furthermore reduced the emissions of primary organic precursors of secondary aerosols, resulting in an overall decrease (although not statistically significant, P values ranging from 0.4 to 0.6) in SOA mass concentration in both locations over the study period. In contrast to the tailpipe emissions, we observed an increasing trend (by ∼4 to 14%) in the relative contribution of non-tailpipe emissions to OC over this time period at both sites. Our results demonstrated the effectiveness of air quality regulations in reducing direct tailpipe emissions in the area, but also underpinned the need to develop equally effective mitigation policies targeting non-tailpipe PM emissions.

Vehicle Exhaust Remote Sensing Device Method to Screen Vehicles for Evaporative Running Loss Emissions

Vehicle hydrocarbon (HC) emissions can be emitted from either tailpipe or nontailpipe locations, and understanding their fleet apportionment is important for a successful air pollution policy. Vehicles initially misidentified as having elevated tailpipe HC emissions first indicated that roadside exhaust sensors could detect the presence of evaporative HC emissions as increased noise in the HC/carbon dioxide (CO₂) correlation measurement. The 90th percentile of the largest residual of the HC/CO₂ correlation is defined as a running loss index (RLI) for each measurement. An RLI that is three standard deviations or greater above the instrument noise indicates possible evaporative running loss emissions with the probability increasing with larger RLI values. Two databases of vehicle emission measurements previously collected in West Los Angeles in 2013 and 2015 were screened using this method. The screening estimated that 0.09% (31/33,806) and 0.18% (49/27,413) of the attempted measurements indicated evaporative running loss emissions from a 9-year-old fleet. California LEV I certified vehicles (1994-2003 model years) accounted for the largest age group for both. The minimum detection limits for the instrument used were estimated at 2.8 and 1.6 g/mile on a propane basis for the 2013 and 2015 data, respectively, or 32-56 times the Federal Tier 2 and Tier 3 standards of 0.05 g/mile.

Inferring Changes in Summertime Surface Ozone-NOx-VOC Chemistry over U.S. Urban Areas from Two Decades of Satellite and Ground-Based Observations

Urban ozone (O₃) formation can be limited by NO_x, VOCs, or both, complicating the design of effective O₃ abatement plans. A satellite-retrieved ratio of formaldehyde to NO₂ (HCHO/NO₂), developed from theory and modeling, has previously been used to indicate O₃ formation chemistry. Here, we connect this space-based indicator to spatiotemporal variations in O₃ recorded by on-the-ground monitors over major U.S. cities. High-O₃ events vary nonlinearly with OMI HCHO and NO₂, and the transition from VOC-limited to NO_x-limited O₃ formation regimes occurs at higher HCHO/NO₂ value (3 to 4) than previously determined from models, with slight intercity variations. To extend satellite records back to 1996, we develop an approach to harmonize observations from GOME and SCIAMACHY that accounts for differences in spatial resolution and overpass time. Two-decade (1996-2016) multisatellite HCHO/NO₂ captures the timing and location of the transition from VOC-limited to NO_x-limited O₃ production regimes in major U.S. cities, which aligns with the observed long-term changes in urban-rural gradient of O₃ and the reversal of O₃ weekend effect. Our findings suggest promise for applying space-based HCHO/NO₂ to interpret local O₃ chemistry, particularly with the new-generation satellite instruments that offer finer spatial and temporal resolution.

National secular trends in ambient air volatile organic compound levels and biomarkers of exposure in the United States

BACKGROUND

Exposure to air pollution is a leading cause of global mortality. Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are constituents of ambient air that could exert adverse health effects.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the relationship between VOC levels in ambient air and individual-level exposure to VOCs, as assessed by urinary VOC metabolites.

METHODS

Secular trends in 11 ambient air VOCs (2005-2013) and individual-level metabolites of 14 VOCs (2005-2014) were assessed using National Monitoring Programs (NMP) and National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) data, respectively. To isolate environmental exposure, individuals reporting exposure to tobacco smoke were excluded. Quantile regression models were used to assess secular trends in VOC exposure, and survey-weighted regression models were built to identify factors associated with VOC exposure.

RESULTS

All annual levels of ambient VOCs decreased from 2005 to 2013 (Range: 12.5%-77.2%). However, 11 of the corresponding VOC metabolites increased during the same time (Range: 0.3%-53.6%). There was a proportional change in patterns of VOC exposure across NHANES waves, with the middle quantiles of exposure showing the largest increase. VOC exposures were significantly associated with age, sex, race, education, and physical inactivity, but not with secular VOC trends.

DISCUSSION

In the United States, individual-level exposure to several VOCs increased between 2005 and 2014 despite a decline in ambient air VOC levels. This inverse relationship suggests that ambient VOCs are not the primary source of VOC exposure, therefore, decreasing ambient VOCs alone may not be sufficient to protect against the adverse health effects associated with VOC exposure.

A WRF-Chem model-based future vehicle emission control policy simulation and assessment for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, China

Using 2025 as the target year, we quantitatively assessed the reduction potentials of emissions of primary pollutants (including CO, HC, NO_x, PM_2.5 and PM₁₀) under different vehicle control policies and the impacts of vehicle emission control policies in the BTH region on the regional PM_2.5 concentration in winter and the surface ozone (O₃) concentration in summer. Comparing the different scenarios, we found that (1) vehicle control policies will bring significant reductions in the emissions of primary pollutants. Among the individual policies, upgrading new vehicle emission standards and fuel quality in Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei will be the most effective policy, with emission reductions of primary pollutants of 26.3%-54.7%, 38.0%-70.3% and 46.0%-81.6% in 2025, respectively; (2) for PM_2.5 in winter, the Combined Scenario (CS) will lead to a reduction of 0.5-3.9 μg m^-3 (3.5%-11.6%) for the monthly average PM_2.5 concentrations in most areas. The monthly nitrate and ammonium concentrations would reduce by 5.8% and 5.3%, respectively, in the whole BTH region, indicating that vehicle emission control policies may play an important role in the reduction of PM_2.5 concentrations in winter, especially for nitrate aerosols; and (3) for O₃ concentrations in summer, vehicle emission control policies will lead to significant decreases. Under the CS scenario, the maximum reduction of monthly average O₃ concentrations in the summer is approximately 3.6 ppb (5.9%). Most areas in the BTH region have a decrease of 15 ppb (7.5%) in peak values compared to the base scenario. However, in some VOC-sensitive areas in the BTH region, such as the southern urban areas, significant reductions in NO_x may lead to increases in ozone concentrations. Our results highlight that season- and location-specific vehicle emission control measures are needed to alleviate ambient PM_2.5 and O₃ pollution effectively in this region due to the complex meteorological conditions and atmospheric chemical reactions.

Reflecting on progress since the 2005 NARSTO emissions inventory report

Emission inventories are the foundation for cost-effective air quality management activities. In 2005, a report by the public/private partnership North American Research Strategy for Tropospheric Ozone (NARSTO) evaluated the strengths and weaknesses of North American emissions inventories and made recommendations for improving their effectiveness. This paper reviews the recommendation areas and briefly discusses what has been addressed, what remains unchanged, and new questions that have arisen. The findings reveal that all emissions inventory improvement areas identified by the 2005 NARSTO publication have been explored and implemented to some degree. The U.S. National Emissions Inventory has become more detailed and has incorporated new research into previously under-characterized sources such as fine particles and biomass burning. Additionally, it is now easier to access the emissions inventory and the documentation of the inventory via the internet. However, many emissions-related research needs exist, on topics such as emission estimation methods, speciation, scalable emission factor development, incorporation of new emission measurement techniques, estimation of uncertainty, top-down verification, and analysis of uncharacterized sources. A common theme throughout this retrospective summary is the need for increased coordination among stakeholders. Researchers and inventory developers must work together to ensure that planned emissions research and new findings can be used to update the emissions inventory. To continue to address emissions inventory challenges, industry, the scientific community, and government agencies need to continue to leverage resources and collaborate as often as possible. As evidenced by the progress noted, continued investment in and coordination of emissions inventory activities will provide dividends to air quality management programs across the country, continent, and world. Implications: In 2005, a report by the public/private partnership North American Research Strategy for Tropospheric Ozone (NARSTO) evaluated the strengths and weaknesses of North American air pollution emissions inventories. This paper reviews the eight recommendation areas and briefly discusses what has been addressed, what remains unchanged, and new questions that have arisen. Although progress has been made, many opportunities exist for the scientific agencies, industry, and government agencies to leverage resources and collaborate to continue improving emissions inventories.

Long-term lichen trends in a rust belt region

Deindustrialization and national air pollution standards greatly reduced air pollution in the USA since the mid-20th century, particularly in the ‘rust belt’ industrial cities of the Great Lakes and Northeastern regions. Still, sprawling urbanization, vehicular traffic and coal-fired power plants may maintain regional heat islands and NOx and SO2 pollution. Lichens are one of the first, and longest used, bioindicators of urban heat island effects and atmospheric pollution, but there are few long-term studies of lichen bioindications. We examined herbaria records for lichens collected between 1869 and 2016 in the Western New York (WNY) region (USA). We hypothesized a long-term trend of increasing pollution-sensitive lichens in the region as well as increased desiccation-tolerant species from urban heat island effects. We also evaluated local (urban and tree land use cover) and regional (ecological zones) influences on pollution-sensitive and desiccation-tolerant lichens. We found that the WNY lichen communities appear to be shaped by urbanization with desiccation- and pollution-tolerant species dominating areas adjacent to the urbanized/industrialized core, and direct local effects of the urban heat island and vehicle traffic within the urban core. These results suggest that despite deindustrialization and tighter air quality standards, an industrial imprint remains on the lichen communities of WNY. However, despite urban filtering toward desiccation- and pollution-tolerant lichen species, the urban landscape contributed unique lichen species to the region, increasing WNY’s overall lichen biodiversity as much as the relatively pristine Allegheny Plateau. Hence, the urbanized areas of WNY contribute unique species to the regional lichen flora.

On the sources and sinks of atmospheric VOCs: an integrated analysis of recent aircraft campaigns over North America

We apply a high-resolution chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem CTM) with updated treatment of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and a comprehensive suite of airborne datasets over North America to (i) characterize the VOC budget and (ii) test the ability of current models to capture the distribution and reactivity of atmospheric VOCs over this region. Biogenic emissions dominate the North American VOC budget in the model, accounting for 70 % and 95 % of annually emitted VOC carbon and reactivity, respectively. Based on current inventories anthropogenic emissions have declined to the point where biogenic emissions are the dominant summertime source of VOC reactivity even in most major North American cities. Methane oxidation is a 2x larger source of nonmethane VOCs (via production of formaldehyde and methyl hydroperoxide) over North America in the model than are anthropogenic emissions. However, anthropogenic VOCs account for over half of the ambient VOC loading over the majority of the region owing to their longer aggregate lifetime. Fires can be a significant VOC source episodically but are small on average. In the planetary boundary layer (PBL), the model exhibits skill in capturing observed variability in total VOC abundance (R 2 = 0:36) and reactivity (R 2 = 0:54). The same is not true in the free troposphere (FT), where skill is low and there is a persistent low model bias (~ 60 %), with most (27 of 34) model VOCs underestimated by more than a factor of 2. A comparison of PBL: FT concentration ratios over the southeastern US points to a misrepresentation of PBL ventilation as a contributor to these model FT biases. We also find that a relatively small number of VOCs (acetone, methanol, ethane, acetaldehyde, formaldehyde, isoprene C oxidation products, methyl hydroperoxide) drive a large fraction of total ambient VOC reactivity and associated model biases; research to improve understanding of their budgets is thus warranted. A source tracer analysis suggests a current overestimate of biogenic sources for hydroxyacetone, methyl ethyl ketone and glyoxal, an underestimate of biogenic formic acid sources, and an underestimate of peroxyacetic acid production across biogenic and anthropogenic precursors. Future work to improve model representations of vertical transport and to address the VOC biases discussed are needed to advance predictions of ozone and SOA formation.

Catalyzed Gasoline Particulate Filters Reduce Secondary Organic Aerosol Production from Gasoline Direct Injection Vehicles

The effects of photochemical aging on exhaust emissions from two light-duty vehicles with gasoline direct injection (GDI) engines equipped with and without catalyzed gasoline particle filters (GPFs) were investigated using a mobile environmental chamber. Both vehicles with and without the GPFs were exercised over the LA92 drive cycle using a chassis dynamometer. Diluted exhaust emissions from the entire LA92 cycle were introduced to the mobile chamber and subsequently photochemically reacted. It was found that the addition of catalyzed GPFs will significantly reduce tailpipe particulate emissions and also provide benefits in gaseous emissions, including nonmethane hydrocarbons (NMHC). Tailpipe emissions composition showed important changes with the use of GPFs by practically eliminating black carbon and increasing the fractional contribution of organic mass. Production of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) was reduced with GPF addition, but was also dependent on engine design which determined the amount of SOA precursors at the tailpipe. Our findings indicate that SOA production from GDI vehicles will be reduced with the application of catalyzed GPFs through the mitigation of reactive hydrocarbon precursors.

Detailed Speciation of Intermediate Volatility and Semivolatile Organic Compound Emissions from Gasoline Vehicles: Effects of Cold-Starts and Implications for Secondary Organic Aerosol Formation

Over the past two decades vehicle emission standards in the United States have been dramatically tightened with the goal of reducing urban air pollution. Secondary organic aerosol (SOA) is the dominant contributor to urban organic aerosol. Experiments were conducted at the California Air Resources Board Haagen-Smit Laboratory to characterize exhaust organics from 20 gasoline vehicles recruited from the California in-use fleet. The vehicles spanned a wide range of emission certification standards. We comprehensively characterized intermediate volatility and semivolatile organic compound emissions using thermal desorption two-dimensional gas-chromatography-mass-spectrometry with electron impact (GC × GC-EI-MS) and vacuum-ultraviolet (GC × GC-VUV-MS) ionization. Single-ring aromatic compounds with unsaturated C4 and C5 substituents contribute a large fraction of the intermediate volatility organic compound (IVOC) emissions in gasoline vehicle exhaust. The analyses of quartz filters used in GC × GC-VUV-MS show that primary organic aerosol emissions were dominated by motor oil. We combined our new emissions data with published SOA yield parametrizations to estimate SOA formation potential. After 24 h of oxidation, IVOC emissions contributed 45% of  SOA formation;  BTEX compounds (benzene, toluene, xylenes, and ethylbenzene), 40%;  other VOC aromatics, 15%. The composition of IVOC emissions was consistent across the test fleet, suggesting that future reductions in vehicular emissions will continue to reduce SOA formation and ambient particulate mass levels.

Air quality accountability: Developing long-term daily time series of pollutant changes and uncertainties in Atlanta, Georgia resulting from the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments

The 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments codified major institutional changes relating to the management of air pollutants in the United States. Recent research years has attributed reduced emissions over the past two decades to regulations enacted under these Amendments, but none have separated long-term daily impacts of individual regulatory programs on multiple source categories under a consistent framework. Using daily emissions and air quality measurements along with a detailed review of national and local regulations promulgated after the Amendments, we quantify daily changes in emissions and air quality attributable to regulations on electricity generating units and on-road mobile sources. To quantify daily changes, we develop nine sets of counterfactual emissions and ambient air pollution concentration time series for 10 pollutants that assume individual regulatory programs and combinations thereof were not implemented. In addition to daily impacts, we estimate uncertainties in these results. These counterfactual daily ambient concentrations reveal high seasonality and increasing effectiveness of most regulations between 1999 and 2013. Monthly average counterfactual concentrations in scenarios that assume no new regulations on electricity generating units and mobile sources are greater than observed concentrations for all pollutants except ozone, which has seen increased wintertime concentrations accompany summertime decreases. By the end of the period, electricity generating unit emissions reductions under the Acid Rain Program and Clean Air Interstate Rule and their respective related local programs led to similar PM_2.5 concentration decreases. Of the mobile source regulations, rules on gasoline and diesel vehicles led to similar reductions in annual PM_2.5, and gasoline programs led to double the summertime ozone reductions as diesel programs. The nine sets of daily time series and their uncertainties were designed for use in air pollution accountability health studies.

In-vehicle airborne fine and ultra-fine particulate matter exposure: The impact of leading vehicle emissions

Airborne particulate matter (PM) concentrations inside vehicle cabins are often extremely high compared to background levels. The present study was motivated by the fact that in the last few decades, the implementation of new emission standards has led to the reduction of vehicle particle emissions. This study addresses for the first time the relationship between leading vehicle (LV) emissions and in-cabin PM exposure levels in the immediately following vehicle (henceforth called the study vehicle - SV), with particular emphasis on the role of the LV's emission reduction technologies (e.g., diesel particulate filter-DPF) as an effective risk management measure. The study was performed using an instrumented study vehicle (always to be considered as the following vehicle) on a 26-km fixed route where 10 repeated tests were conducted during 60-minute trips. On-line monitoring of the fine 0.3-1 μm and 1-2.5 μm (PM_0.3-1 and PM_1-2.5) and ultra-fine particle (UFP) concentrations was performed inside the SV's car cabin with fixed ventilation settings (i.e., windows closed, air conditioning off, and recirculation fan off). Simultaneously, the license plate numbers of the LVs along the route were recorded to retrieve information pertaining to their fuel type and Euro emission standard category. The results clearly showed that the in-cabin PM levels were significantly affected by the LV's Euro emission standard. Regarding petrol-fuelled LVs, the median in-cabin particle exposure levels were statistically lower (e.g., -34% for PM_0.3-1) when following vehicles with stricter emission standards (in particular, Euro 6) than when following a low-emission standard vehicle (i.e., Euro 0-2). Concerning diesel-fuelled LVs, a strong and significant decrease in the in-cabin median exposure levels (up to -62%, -44%, and -48% for UFPs, PM_0.3-1, and PM_1-2.5, respectively) was observed for recent-emission standards LVs (i.e., Euro 5-6) with respect to older-emission standard LVs (i.e., Euro 0-4). A specific analysis revealed that the in-cabin median exposure concentrations of PM were highly and significantly reduced by DPF-equipped LVs. For UFPs, this resulted in a 47% reduction compared to diesel-fuelled (non-DPF) LVs. For PM_0.3-1, an approximate 80% reduction was observed compared to both petrol-fuelled and diesel-fuelled (non-DPF) LVs. For PM_1-2.5, an approximate 38% reduction was observed compared to petrol-fuelled LVs and a 46% reduction compared to non-DPF LVs.

Long-term trends in submicron particle concentrations in a metropolitan area of the northeastern United States

Significant changes in emission sources have occurred in the northeastern United States over the past decade, due in part to the implementation of emissions standards, the introduction and addition of abatement technologies for road transport, changes in fuel sulfur content for road and non-road transport, as well as economic impacts of a major recession and differential fuel prices. These changes in emission scenarios likely affected the concentrations of airborne submicron particles. This study investigated the characteristics of 11-500nm particle number concentrations and their size spectra in Rochester, NY during the past 15years (2002 to 2016). The modal structure, diurnal, weekly and monthly patterns of particle number concentrations are analyzed. Long-term trends are quantified using seasonal-trend decomposition procedures based on "Loess", Mann-Kendall regression with Theil-Sen slope and piecewise regression. Particle concentrations underwent significant (p<0.05) downward trends. An annual decrease of -323particles/cm³/y (-4.6%/y) was estimated for the total particle number concentration using Theil-Sen analysis. The trends were driven mainly by the decrease in particles in the 11-50nm range (-181particles/cm³/y; -4.7%/y). Slope changes were investigated annually and seasonally. Piecewise regression found different slopes for different portions of the overall period with the strongest declines between 2005 and 2011/2013, followed by small upward trends between 2013 and 2016 for most size bins, possibly representing increased vehicular traffic after the recovery from the 2008 recession.

Modeling Ozone in the Eastern U.S. using a Fuel-Based Mobile Source Emissions Inventory

Recent studies suggest overestimates in current U.S. emission inventories of nitrogen oxides (NO _x = NO + NO₂). Here, we expand a previously developed fuel-based inventory of motor-vehicle emissions (FIVE) to the continental U.S. for the year 2013, and evaluate our estimates of mobile source emissions with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's National Emissions Inventory (NEI) interpolated to 2013. We find that mobile source emissions of NO _x and carbon monoxide (CO) in the NEI are higher than FIVE by 28% and 90%, respectively. Using a chemical transport model, we model mobile source emissions from FIVE, and find consistent levels of urban NO _x and CO as measured during the Southeast Nexus (SENEX) Study in 2013. Lastly, we assess the sensitivity of ozone (O₃) over the Eastern U.S. to uncertainties in mobile source NO _x emissions and biogenic volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions. The ground-level O₃ is sensitive to reductions in mobile source NO _x emissions, most notably in the Southeastern U.S. and during O₃ exceedance events, under the revised standard proposed in 2015 (>70 ppb, 8 h maximum). This suggests that decreasing mobile source NO _x emissions could help in meeting more stringent O₃ standards in the future.

The Story of Ever Diminishing Vehicle Tailpipe Emissions as Observed in the Chicago, Illinois Area

The University of Denver has collected on-road fuel specific vehicle emissions measurements in the Chicago area since 1989. This nearly 30 year record illustrates the large reductions in light-duty vehicle tailpipe emissions and the remarkable improvements in emissions control durability to maintain low emissions over increasing periods of time. Since 1989 fuel specific carbon monoxide (CO) emissions have been reduced by an order of magnitude and hydrocarbon (HC) emissions by more than a factor of 20. Nitric oxide (NO) emissions have only been collected since 1997 but have seen reductions of 79%. This has increased the skewness of the emissions distribution where the 2016 fleet's 99th percentile contributes ∼3 times more of the 1990 total for CO and HC emissions. There are signs that these reductions may be leveling out as the emissions durability of Tier 2 vehicles in use today has almost eliminated the emissions reduction benefit of fleet turnover. Since 1997, the average age of the Chicago on-road fleet has increased 2 model years and the percentage of passenger vehicles has dropped from 71 to 52% of the fleet. Emissions are now so well controlled that the influence of driving mode has been completely eliminated as a factor for fuel specific CO and NO emissions.

Trends in onroad transportation energy and emissions

Globally, 1.3 billion on-road vehicles consume 79 quadrillion BTU of energy, mostly gasoline and diesel fuels, emit 5.7 gigatonnes of CO₂, and emit other pollutants to which approximately 200,000 annual premature deaths are attributed. Improved vehicle energy efficiency and emission controls have helped offset growth in vehicle activity. New technologies are diffusing into the vehicle fleet in response to fuel efficiency and emission standards. Empirical assessment of vehicle emissions is challenging because of myriad fuels and technologies, intervehicle variability, multiple emission processes, variability in operating conditions, and varying capabilities of measurement methods. Fuel economy and emissions regulations have been effective in reducing total emissions of key pollutants. Real-world fuel use and emissions are consistent with official values in the United States but not in Europe or countries that adopt European standards. Portable emission measurements systems, which uncovered a recent emissions cheating scandal, have a key role in regulatory programs to ensure conformity between "real driving emissions" and emission standards. The global vehicle fleet will experience tremendous growth, especially in Asia. Although existing data and modeling tools are useful, they are often based on convenience samples, small sample sizes, large variability, and unquantified uncertainty. Vehicles emit precursors to several important secondary pollutants, including ozone and secondary organic aerosols, which requires a multipollutant emissions and air quality management strategy. Gasoline and diesel are likely to persist as key energy sources to mid-century. Adoption of electric vehicles is not a panacea with regard to greenhouse gas emissions unless coupled with policies to change the power generation mix. Depending on how they are actually implemented and used, autonomous vehicles could lead to very large reductions or increases in energy consumption. Numerous other trends are addressed with regard to technology, emissions controls, vehicle operations, emission measurements, impacts on exposure, and impacts on public health.

IMPLICATIONS

Without specific policies to the contrary, fossil fuels are likely to continue to be the major source of on-road vehicle energy consumption. Fuel economy and emission standards are generally effective in achieving reductions per unit of vehicle activity. However, the number of vehicles and miles traveled will increase. Total energy use and emissions depend on factors such as fuels, technologies, land use, demographics, economics, road design, vehicle operation, societal values, and others that affect demand for transportation, mode choice, energy use, and emissions. Thus, there are many opportunities to influence future trends in vehicle energy use and emissions.

Unexpected slowdown of US pollutant emission reduction in the past decade

Emissions of nitrogen oxides (NO_x) have a large impact on air quality and climate change as precursors in the formation of ozone and secondary aerosols. We find that NO_x emissions have not been decreasing as expected in recent years (2011–2015) when comparing top-down estimates from satellites and surface NO₂ measurements to the trends predicted from the US Environmental Protection Agency’s emission inventory data. The discrepancy can be explained by the growing relative contribution of industrial, area, and off-road mobile sources of emissions, decreasing relative contribution of on-road gasoline vehicles, and slower than expected decreases in on-road diesel NO_x emissions, with implications for air-quality management.

Ground and satellite observations show that air pollution regulations in the United States (US) have resulted in substantial reductions in emissions and corresponding improvements in air quality over the last several decades. However, large uncertainties remain in evaluating how recent regulations affect different emission sectors and pollutant trends. Here we show a significant slowdown in decreasing US emissions of nitrogen oxides (NO_x) and carbon monoxide (CO) for 2011–2015 using satellite and surface measurements. This observed slowdown in emission reductions is significantly different from the trend expected using US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) bottom-up inventories and impedes compliance with local and federal agency air-quality goals. We find that the difference between observations and EPA’s NO_x emission estimates could be explained by: (i) growing relative contributions of industrial, area, and off-road sources, (ii) decreasing relative contributions of on-road gasoline, and (iii) slower than expected decreases in on-road diesel emissions.

Volatile chemical products emerging as largest petrochemical source of urban organic emissions

A gap in emission inventories of urban volatile organic compound (VOC) sources, which contribute to regional ozone and aerosol burdens, has increased as transportation emissions in the United States and Europe have declined rapidly. A detailed mass balance demonstrates that the use of volatile chemical products (VCPs)-including pesticides, coatings, printing inks, adhesives, cleaning agents, and personal care products-now constitutes half of fossil fuel VOC emissions in industrialized cities. The high fraction of VCP emissions is consistent with observed urban outdoor and indoor air measurements. We show that human exposure to carbonaceous aerosols of fossil origin is transitioning away from transportation-related sources and toward VCPs. Existing U.S. regulations on VCPs emphasize mitigating ozone and air toxics, but they currently exempt many chemicals that lead to secondary organic aerosols.

Southeast Atmosphere Studies: learning from model-observation syntheses

Concentrations of atmospheric trace species in the United States have changed dramatically over the past several decades in response to pollution control strategies, shifts in domestic energy policy and economics, and economic development (and resulting emission changes) elsewhere in the world. Reliable projections of the future atmosphere require models to not only accurately describe current atmospheric concentrations, but to do so by representing chemical, physical and biological processes with conceptual and quantitative fidelity. Only through incorporation of the processes controlling emissions and chemical mechanisms that represent the key transformations among reactive molecules can models reliably project the impacts of future policy, energy and climate scenarios. Efforts to properly identify and implement the fundamental and controlling mechanisms in atmospheric models benefit from intensive observation periods, during which collocated measurements of diverse, speciated chemicals in both the gas and condensed phases are obtained. The Southeast Atmosphere Studies (SAS, including SENEX, SOAS, NOMADSS and SEAC4RS) conducted during the summer of 2013 provided an unprecedented opportunity for the atmospheric modeling community to come together to evaluate, diagnose and improve the representation of fundamental climate and air quality processes in models of varying temporal and spatial scales. This paper is aimed at discussing progress in evaluating, diagnosing and improving air quality and climate modeling using comparisons to SAS observations as a guide to thinking about improvements to mechanisms and parameterizations in models. The effort focused primarily on model representation of fundamental atmospheric processes that are essential to the formation of ozone, secondary organic aerosol (SOA) and other trace species in the troposphere, with the ultimate goal of understanding the radiative impacts of these species in the southeast and elsewhere. Here we address questions surrounding four key themes: gas-phase chemistry, aerosol chemistry, regional climate and chemistry interactions, and natural and anthropogenic emissions. We expect this review to serve as a guidance for future modeling efforts.

Urban flux measurements reveal a large pool of oxygenated volatile organic compound emissions

The exchange of nonmethane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) at the surface–atmosphere interface is a fundamental constraint and important boundary condition for atmospheric chemistry and its effects on climate. Anthropogenic emissions are thought to account for about half of the NMVOC flux into the atmosphere of the Northern Hemisphere, yet their budget is considerably uncertain due to the scarcity of appropriate top-down constraints. Here we present direct flux measurements of NMVOCs based on the eddy covariance technique, showing that the contribution of typical urban emission sources is comprised of a surprisingly large portion of oxygenated NMVOC. These results suggest that typical urban NMVOC emission sources could be significantly higher than currently projected in air chemistry and climate models.

Atmospheric chemistry is fueled by a large annual influx of nonmethane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC). These compounds influence ozone formation, lead to secondary organic aerosol production, and play a significant role for the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere. The anthropogenic NMVOC budget is considerably uncertain due to the diversity of urban emission sources. Here, we present comprehensive observations of urban NMVOC eddy covariance fluxes using a newly designed proton-transfer-reaction quadrupole interface time-of-flight mass spectrometer. We found emission fluxes of a surprisingly large pool of oxygenated NMVOCs (OVOCs) with an appreciable fraction of higher oxidized OVOCs that cannot be explained by known fast photochemical turnaround or current primary emission estimates. Measured OVOC/NMVOC bulk flux ratios are two to four times higher than inferred from aggregated anthropogenic emission inventories. Extrapolating these results would double the global anthropogenic NMVOC flux. In view of globally accelerating urbanization, our study highlights the need to reevaluate the influence of anthropogenic NMVOC on atmospheric chemistry, human health, and the climate system.

Air pollution at Rochester, NY: Long-term trends and multivariate analysis of upwind SO2 source impacts

There have been many changes in the air pollutant sources in the northeastern United States since 2001. To assess the effect of these changes, trend analyses of the monthly average values were performed on PM_2.5 and its components including major ions, elemental carbon (EC), organic carbon (OC), and gaseous pollutant concentrations measured between 2001 (in some cases 1999) and 2015 at the NYS Department of Environmental Conservation sites in Rochester, NY. Mann-Kendall regression with Sen's slope was applied to estimate the trends and seasonality. Using piecewise regression, significant reductions in the air pollution of Rochester area were observed between 2008 and 2010 when a 260MW coal-fired power plant was decommissioned, new heavy-duty diesel trucks had to be equipped with catalytic regenerator traps, and the economic recession that began in 2008 reduced traffic and other activities. The monthly average PM_2.5 mass showed a downward trend (-5μg/m³; -41%) in Rochester between 2001 and 2015. This change is largely due to reductions in particulate sulfate that showed a 65% decrease. The sulfate concentrations were compared to changes in SO₂ emissions in seventeen upwind source domains, and other systematic changes by multivariate linear regression. Selectivity ratio obtained from target projection discriminated the most important source domains that are SO₂ emissions from Georgia for winter, North Carolina for transition (spring and fall) and Ohio along with other influences for summer. North Carolina and Michigan were identified as the main sources for entire period. These observations suggest that any further reductions in the specified regional SO₂ emissions would result in a proportional decrease in sulfate in Rochester.

Temperature and Driving Cycle Significantly Affect Carbonaceous Gas and Particle Matter Emissions from Diesel Trucks

The present study examines the effects of fuel [an ultralow sulfur diesel (ULSD) versus a 20% v/v soy-based biodiesel-80% v/v petroleum blend (B20)], temperature, load, vehicle, driving cycle, and active regeneration technology on gas- and particle-phase carbon emissions from light and medium heavy-duty diesel vehicles (L/MHDDV). The study is performed using chassis dynamometer facilities that support low-temperature operation (-6.7 °C versus 21.7 °C) and heavy loads up to 12 000 kg. Organic and elemental carbon (OC-EC) composition of aerosol particles is determined using a thermal-optical technique. Gas- and particle-phase semivolatile organic compound (SVOC) emissions collected using traditional filter and polyurethane foam sampling media are analyzed using advanced gas chromatograpy/mass spectrometry methods. Study-wide OC and EC emissions are 0.735 and 0.733 mg/km, on average. The emissions factors for diesel vehicles vary widely, and use of a catalyzed diesel particle filter (CDPF) device generally mutes the carbon particle emissions in the exhaust, which contains ~90% w/w gas-phase matter. Interestingly, replacing ULSD with B20 did not significantly influence SVOC emissions, for which sums range from 0.030 to 9.4 mg/km for the L/MHDDVs. However, both low temperature and vehicle cold-starts significantly increase SVOCs in the exhaust. Real-time particle measurements indicate vehicle regeneration technology did influence emissions, although regeneration effects went unresolved using bulk chemistry techniques. A multistudy comparison of the toxic particle-phase polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs; molecular weight (MW) ≥ 252 amu) in diesel exhaust indicates emission factors that span up to 8 orders of magnitude over the past several decades. This study observes conditions under which PAH compounds with MW ≥ 252 amu appear in diesel particles downstream of the CDPF and can even reach low-end concentrations reported earlier for much larger HDDVs with poorly controlled exhaust streams. This rare observation suggests that analysis of PAHs in particles emitted from modern L/MHDDVs may be more complex than recognized previously.

Seasonal Trends of Formaldehyde and Acetaldehyde in the Megacity of São Paulo

The Metropolitan Area of São Paulo (MASP) is the largest megacity in South America, with 21 million inhabitants and more than 8 million vehicles. Those vehicles run on a complex fuel mix, with ethanol accounting for nearly 50% of all fuel sold. That has made the MASP a unique case study to assess the impact of biofuel use on air quality. Currently, the greatest challenge in terms of improving air quality is controlling the formation of secondary pollutants such as ozone, which represents the main air pollution problem in the MASP. We evaluated the temporal trends in the concentrations of ozone, its precursors (formaldehyde, acetaldehyde, and NO2), CO, and NO, from 2012 to 2016. Formaldehyde and acetaldehyde concentrations were frequently higher in winter than in other seasons, showing the importance of meteorological conditions to the distribution of atmospheric pollutants in the MASP. We found no clear evidence that the recent growth in ethanol consumption in Brazil has affected acetaldehyde concentrations, which are associated with emissions from ethanol combustion. In fact, the formaldehyde/acetaldehyde ratio remained relatively constant over the period studied, despite the change in the fuel consumption profile in the MASP.

Spatial and Temporal Variations in Characteristic Ratios of Elemental Carbon to Carbon Monoxide and Nitrogen Oxides across the United States

A ratio-based method is used to characterize anthropogenic elemental carbon (EC_a) using in situ measurements and emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) and nitrogen oxides (NO_x). We use long-term records of ground-based measurements from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Air Quality System and Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments to assess the patterns in anthropogenic combustion ratios (ΔEC_a/ΔCO and ΔEC_a/ΔNO_x) across the U.S. Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD) regions for the years 2000-2015. We investigate the change in these ratios between the periods 2000-2007 and 2008-2015. Overall, ΔEC_a/ΔCO ratios increase by 0.7-82% and ΔEC_a/ΔNO_x by 6.8-104% across the East and West PADD regions. The urban West showed the largest increase relative to other regions. This is mainly attributed to a 13-23% increase in ΔEC_a during the winter and fall seasons and significant reductions in urban ΔNO_x (except in winter). We also find that emission ratios derived from the EPA's National Emission Inventory (NEI) overestimate (underestimate) the increase in the observed enhancement ratios in the East (West). Analyses of changes in NEI emissions in the West reveal (a) smaller reductions in NEI emissions for NO_x from the off-road sector and (b) an increase in PM_2.5 (particulate matter 2.5 μm or less in diameter) emissions from commercial/residential combustion and smaller reductions in nonroad emissions.

An Approach to Developing Local Climate Change Environmental Public Health Indicators in a Rural District

Climate change represents a significant and growing threat to population health. Rural areas face unique challenges, such as high rates of vulnerable populations; economic uncertainty due to their reliance on industries that are vulnerable to climate change; less resilient infrastructure; and lower levels of access to community and emergency services than urban areas. This article fills a gap in public health practice by developing climate and health environmental public health indicators for a local public health department in a rural area. We adapted the National Environmental Public Health Tracking Network's framework for climate and health indicators to a seven-county health department in Western Kentucky. Using a three-step review process, we identified primary climate-related environmental public health hazards for the region (extreme heat, drought, and flooding) and a suite of related exposure, health outcome, population vulnerability, and environmental vulnerability indicators. Indicators that performed more poorly at the county level than at the state and national level were defined as "high vulnerability." Six to eight high vulnerability indicators were identified for each county. The local health department plans to use the results to enhance three key areas of existing services: epidemiology, public health preparedness, and community health assessment.

Review of Urban Secondary Organic Aerosol Formation from Gasoline and Diesel Motor Vehicle Emissions

Secondary organic aerosol (SOA) is formed from the atmospheric oxidation of gas-phase organic compounds leading to the formation of particle mass. Gasoline- and diesel-powered motor vehicles, both on/off-road, are important sources of SOA precursors. They emit complex mixtures of gas-phase organic compounds that vary in volatility and molecular structure-factors that influence their contributions to urban SOA. However, the relative importance of each vehicle type with respect to SOA formation remains unclear due to conflicting evidence from recent laboratory, field, and modeling studies. Both are likely important, with evolving contributions that vary with location and over short time scales. This review summarizes evidence, research needs, and discrepancies between top-down and bottom-up approaches used to estimate SOA from motor vehicles, focusing on inconsistencies between molecular-level understanding and regional observations. The effect of emission controls (e.g., exhaust aftertreatment technologies, fuel formulation) on SOA precursor emissions needs comprehensive evaluation, especially with international perspective given heterogeneity in regulations and technology penetration. Novel studies are needed to identify and quantify "missing" emissions that appear to contribute substantially to SOA production, especially in gasoline vehicles with the most advanced aftertreatment. Initial evidence suggests catalyzed diesel particulate filters greatly reduce emissions of SOA precursors along with primary aerosol.

Evaluating the effectiveness of air quality regulations: A review of accountability studies and frameworks

Assessments of past environmental policies-termed accountability studies-contribute important information to the decision-making process used to review the efficacy of past policies, and subsequently aid in the development of effective new policies. These studies have used a variety of methods that have achieved varying levels of success at linking improvements in air quality and/or health to regulations. The Health Effects Institute defines the air pollution accountability framework as a chain of events that includes the regulation of interest, air quality, exposure/dose, and health outcomes, and suggests that accountability research should address impacts for each of these linkages. Early accountability studies investigated short-term, local regulatory actions (for example, coal use banned city-wide on a specific date or traffic pattern changes made for Olympic Games). Recent studies assessed regulations implemented over longer time and larger spatial scales. Studies on broader scales require accountability research methods that account for effects of confounding factors that increase over time and space. Improved estimates of appropriate baseline levels (sometimes termed "counterfactual"-the expected state in a scenario without an intervention) that account for confounders and uncertainties at each link in the accountability chain will help estimate causality with greater certainty. In the direct accountability framework, researchers link outcomes with regulations using statistical methods that bypass the link-by-link approach of classical accountability. Direct accountability results and methods complement the classical approach. New studies should take advantage of advanced planning for accountability studies, new data sources (such as satellite measurements), and new statistical methods. Evaluation of new methods and data sources is necessary to improve investigations of long-term regulations, and associated uncertainty should be accounted for at each link to provide a confidence estimate of air quality regulation effectiveness. The final step in any accountability is the comparison of results with the proposed benefits of an air quality policy.

IMPLICATIONS

The field of air pollution accountability continues to grow in importance to a number of stakeholders. Two frameworks, the classical accountability chain and direct accountability, have been used to estimate impacts of regulatory actions, and both require careful attention to confounders and uncertainties. Researchers should continue to develop and evaluate both methods as they investigate current and future air pollution regulations.