Mesic vegetation persistence: A new approach for monitoring spatial and temporal changes in water availability in dryland regions using cloud computing and the sentinel and Landsat constellations

Climate change and anthropogenic activity pose severe threats to water availability in drylands. A better understanding of water availability response to these threats could improve our ability to adapt and mitigate climate and anthropogenic effects. Here, we present a Mesic Vegetation Persistence (MVP) workflow that takes every usable image in the Sentinel (10-m) and Landsat (30-m) archives to generate a dense time-series of water availability that is continuously updated as new images become available in Google Earth Engine. MVP takes advantage of the fact that mesic vegetation can be used as a proxy of available water in drylands. Our MVP workflow combines a novel moisture-based index (moisture change index - MCI) with a vegetation index (Modified Chlorophyll Absorption Ratio Vegetation Index (MCARI2)). MCI is the difference in soil moisture condition between an individual pixel's state and the dry and wet reference reflectance in the image, derived using 5th and 95th percentiles of the visible and shortwave infra-red drought index (VSDI). We produced and validated our MVP products across drylands of the western U.S., covering a broad range of elevation, land use, and ecoregions. MVP outperforms NDVI, a commonly-employed index for mesic ecosystem health, in both rangeland and forested ecosystems, and in mesic habitats with particularly high and low vegetation cover. We applied our MVP product at case study sites and found that MVP more accurately characterizes differences in mesic persistence, late-season water availability, and restoration success compared to NDVI. MVP could be applied as an indicator of change in a variety of contexts to provide a greater understanding of how water availability changes as a result of climate and management. Our MVP product for the western U.S. is freely available within a Google Earth Engine Web App, and the MVP workflow is replicable for other dryland regions.

Associations of meteorological factors and dynamics of scrub typhus incidence in South Korea: A nationwide time-series study

Scrub typhus, also known as Tsutsugamushi disease, is a climate-sensitive vector-borne disease that poses a growing public health threat. However, studies on the association between scrub typhus epidemics and meteorological factors in South Korea need to be complemented. Therefore, we aimed to analyze the association among ambient temperature, precipitation, and the incidence of scrub typhus in South Korea. First, we obtained data on the weekly number of scrub typhus cases and concurrent meteorological variables at the city-county level (Si-Gun) in South Korea between 2001 and 2019. Subsequently, a two-stage meta-regression analysis was conducted. In the first stage, we conducted time-series regression analyses using a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) to investigate the association between temperature, precipitation, and scrub typhus incidence at each location. In the second stage, we employed a multivariate meta-regression model to combine the association estimates from all municipalities, considering regional indicators, such as mite species distribution, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and urban-rural classification. Weekly mean temperature and weekly total precipitation exhibited a reversed U-shaped nonlinear association with the incidence of scrub typhus. The overall cumulative association with scrub typhus incidence peaked at 18.7 C° (with RRs of 9.73, 95% CI: 5.54-17.10) of ambient temperature (reference 9.7 C°) and 162.0 mm (with RRs of 1.87, 95% CI: 1.02-3.83) of precipitation (reference 2.8 mm), respectively. These findings suggest that meteorological factors contribute to scrub typhus epidemics by interacting with vectors, reservoir hosts, and human behaviors. This information serves as a reference for future public health policies and epidemiological research aimed at controlling scrub typhus infections.

Multiple interacting factors affect seed predation in an African savanna small mammal community

Multiple factors affect seed predation, including seed traits, habitat type, seed predator community composition, predation risk, and seasonality. How all these factors and their interactions simultaneously influence seed predation has rarely been tested experimentally in situ. Here, we assessed the relative contribution of the factors driving seed predation in an African savanna rodent community, comprising six ecologically similar species. We first conducted seed preference tests under semicaptive conditions to determine which seed trait (size, shell hardness, nutritional content) influenced seed predation. Then we performed in situ experiments to establish whether rodent community composition (diversity and abundance), seed type, habitat type, seasonality, predation risk, and their interactions affected seed predation. Semicaptive experiments showed that rodents preferred smaller, lighter seeds, containing relatively high water content. In situ experiments showed that predation risk was an important factor influencing seed predation, with rodents removing considerably more seeds in areas where predation risk was lower. Habitat type also affected seed predation, but its effects were strongly linked to predation risk. In areas where predation risk was higher, rodents removed more seeds in more heterogeneous habitats, whereas in areas where predation risk was lower, rodents removed more seeds in less heterogeneous habitats. Seasonality was the least influential factor shaping seed predation. Rodents removed more seeds in winter compared to other seasons, but only in areas where predation risk was low. We provide experimental evidence for a multifaceted approach to understanding the relative contribution of the different factors driving variation in seed predation in natural communities and show that these factors are likely hierarchically arranged.

Sustained population decline of rodents is linked to accelerated climate warming and human disturbance

Background

During the past three decades, sustained population decline or disappearance of cycles in small rodents have been observed. Both anthropogenic disturbance and climate warming are likely to be potential drivers of population decline, but quantitative analysis on their distinct effects is still lacking.

Results

Using time series monitoring of 115 populations (80 populations from 18 known rodent species, 35 mixed populations from unknown species) from 1980 in China (spanning 20–33 yrs), we analyzed association of human disturbances and climate warming with population dynamics of these rodent species. We found 54 of 115 populations showed a decreasing trend since 1980, and 16 of 115 showed an increasing trend. Human disturbances and climate warming showed significant positive associations with the population declines of most rodent species, and the population declines were more pronounced in habitats with more intensified human disturbance such as cities and farmlands or in high-latitude regions which experienced more increase of temperature.

Conclusions

Our results indicate that the large-scale sustained population decline of small mammals in various ecosystems driven by the rapid increase of both climate warming and human disturbance is likely a signal of ecosystem dysfunction or transition. There is an urgent need to assess the risks of accelerated climate warming and human disturbance imposes on our ecosystems.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12862-022-02056-z.

Winter diet of Burrowing Owls in the Llano La Soledad, Galeana, Nuevo León, México

The dietary niche breadth of the Burrowing Owl was determined (Athene cunicularia Molina, 1782) in Llano La Soledad, Galeana, Nuevo Leon in northern Mexico, by considering prey type, numerical percentage, weight, weight percentage, frequency of occurrence percentage, and IRI percentage. The study compared data from three winters (2002-2003, 2003-2004, 2004-2005) by analyzing 358 pellets, identifying 850 prey items. Invertebrates constituted 90% of prey items, which mostly included insects (85%); beetles were the most common insects found in pellets (70%). Vertebrates made up 84% of consumed weight, of which 83% were mammals. Most of the mammals were cricetid rodents (41%). Niche breadth based on the numerical and weight percentage confirmed the Burrowing Owl as a generalist species with mean values per year ranging between 0.65 and 0.82. Additionally, there was a strong association between the weight of rodent species in winter. This association was mainly driven by changes in composition and frequency of these prey species during the second winter, probably caused by high annual rainfall. The second season also showed a statistically significant narrower niche (Ro = 0.96) and the smallest overlap (0.45 vs. 0.76) among the three winters.

Timing outweighs magnitude of rainfall in shaping population dynamics of a small mammal species in steppe grassland

Disentangling the effects of rainfall timing and magnitude on animal and plant populations is essential to reveal the biological consequence of diverse climate change scenarios around the world. We conducted a 10-y, large-scale, manipulative experiment to examine the bottom-up effects of changes in rainfall regime on the population dynamics of Brandt’s voles in the steppe grassland of Inner Mongolia, China. We found that a moderate rainfall increase during the early growing season could produce marked increases in vole population size by increasing the biomass of preferred plant species, whereas large increases in rainfall produced no additional increase in vole population growth. Our study highlights the importance of rainfall magnitude and timing on the nonlinear population dynamics of herbivores.

Climate change–induced shifts in species phenology differ widely across trophic levels, which may lead to consumer–resource mismatches with cascading population and ecosystem consequences. Here, we examined the effects of different rainfall patterns (i.e., timing and amount) on the phenological asynchrony of population of a generalist herbivore and their food sources in semiarid steppe grassland in Inner Mongolia. We conducted a 10-y (2010 to 2019) rainfall manipulation experiment in 12 0.48-ha field enclosures and found that moderate rainfall increases during the early rather than late growing season advanced the timing of peak reproduction and drove marked increases in population size through increasing the biomass of preferred plant species. By contrast, greatly increased rainfall produced no further increases in vole population growth due to the potential negative effect of the flooding of burrows. The increases in vole population size were more coupled with increased reproduction of overwintered voles and increased body mass of young-of-year than with better survival. Our results provide experimental evidence for the fitness consequences of phenological mismatches at the population level and highlight the importance of rainfall timing on the population dynamics of small herbivores in the steppe grassland environment.

Heterothermy as a mechanism to offset energetic costs of environmental and homeostatic perturbations

Environmental and biotic pressures impose homeostatic costs on all organisms. The energetic costs of maintaining high body temperatures (T_b) render endotherms sensitive to pressures that increase foraging costs. In response, some mammals become more heterothermic to conserve energy. We measured T_b in banner-tailed kangaroo rats (Dipodomys spectabilis) to test and disentangle the effects of air temperature and moonlight (a proxy for predation risk) on thermoregulatory homeostasis. We further perturbed homeostasis in some animals with chronic corticosterone (CORT) via silastic implants. Heterothermy increased across summer, consistent with the predicted effect of lunar illumination (and predation), and in the direction opposite to the predicted effect of environmental temperatures. The effect of lunar illumination was also evident within nights as animals maintained low T_b when the moon was above the horizon. The pattern was accentuated in CORT-treated animals, suggesting they adopted an even further heightened risk-avoidance strategy that might impose reduced foraging and energy intake. Still, CORT-treatment did not affect body condition over the entire study, indicating kangaroo rats offset decreases in energy intake through energy savings associated with heterothermy. Environmental conditions receive the most attention in studies of thermoregulatory homeostasis, but we demonstrated here that biotic factors can be more important and should be considered in future studies.

Declines in rodent abundance and diversity track regional climate variability in North American drylands

Regional long-term monitoring can enhance the detection of biodiversity declines associated with climate change, improving future projections by reducing reliance on space-for-time substitution and increasing scalability. Rodents are diverse and important consumers in drylands, regions defined by the scarcity of water that cover 45% of Earth's land surface and face increasingly drier and more variable climates. We analyzed abundance data for 22 rodent species across grassland, shrubland, ecotone, and woodland ecosystems in the southwestern USA. Two time series (1995-2006 and 2004-2013) coincided with phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which influences drought in southwestern North America. Regionally, rodent species diversity declined 20%-35%, with greater losses during the later time period. Abundance also declined regionally, but only during 2004-2013, with losses of 5% of animals captured. During the first time series (wetter climate), plant productivity outranked climate variables as the best regional predictor of rodent abundance for 70% of taxa, whereas during the second period (drier climate), climate best explained variation in abundance for 60% of taxa. Temporal dynamics in diversity and abundance differed spatially among ecosystems, with the largest declines in woodlands and shrublands of central New Mexico and Colorado. Which species were winners or losers under increasing drought and amplified interannual variability in drought depended on ecosystem type and the phase of the PDO. Fewer taxa were significant winners (18%) than losers (30%) under drought, but the identities of winners and losers differed among ecosystems for 70% of taxa. Our results suggest that the sensitivities of rodent species to climate contributed to regional declines in diversity and abundance during 1995-2013. Whether these changes portend future declines in drought-sensitive consumers in the southwestern USA will depend on the climate during the next major PDO cycle.

Competition shapes individual foraging and survival in a desert rodent ensemble

Intraspecific variation, including individual diet variation, can structure populations and communities, but the causes and consequences of individual foraging strategies are often unclear. Interactions between competition and resources are thought to dictate foraging strategies (e.g. specialization vs. generalization), but classical paradigms such as optimal foraging and niche theory offer contrasting predictions for individual consumers. Furthermore, both paradigms assume that individual foraging strategies maximize fitness, yet this prediction is rarely tested. We used repeated stable isotope measurements (δ¹³ C, δ¹⁵ N; N = 3,509) and 6 years of capture-mark-recapture data to quantify the relationship between environmental variation, individual foraging and consumer fitness among four species of desert rodents. We tested the relative effects of intraspecific competition, interspecific competition, resource abundance and resource diversity on the foraging strategies of 349 individual animals, and then quantified apparent survival as function of individual foraging strategies. Consistent with niche theory, individuals contracted their trophic niches and increased foraging specialization in response to both intraspecific and interspecific competition, but this effect was offset by resource availability and individuals generalized when plant biomass was high. Nevertheless, individual specialists obtained no apparent fitness benefit from trophic niche contractions as the most specialized individuals exhibited a 10% reduction in monthly survival compared to the most generalized individuals. Ultimately, this resulted in annual survival probabilities nearly 4× higher for generalists compared to specialists. These results indicate that competition is the proximate driver of individual foraging strategies, and that diet-mediated fitness variation regulates population and community dynamics in stochastic resource environments. Furthermore, our findings show dietary generalism is a fitness maximizing strategy, suggesting that plastic foraging strategies may play a key role in species' ability to cope with environmental change.

Some species flourish when many do not: a pattern in data on ecological communities

Patterns in species × sample tables of communities depend above all on the organisms of the data sets and the conditions involved. Patterns that surpass individual sets are of special interest. Our question, looking for a shared pattern in 12 sets, is if relative abundances among species are independent of the sample, or formulated alternatively, if species have abundances that are correlated with total abundances over samples. For exploration we study the overdispersion/aggregation of the data. A relatively high variation in the total abundances of samples is noticed, indicating an effect of environmental variation. Overdispersion imposes constraints on the accommodation of relatively high abundance values to samples with a relatively low total abundance. The null hypothesis of ‘no association’ is modelled by permutation/resampling of the data at the level of the individual. A correlation study of actual and permuted sets is performed. All actual sets contain a significant number of species that defy our question. These species flourish when many do not. The relation of our question with issues in theoretical ecology, such as the assumption of a neutral effect of environmental conditions and/or of neutral characteristics of species, is discussed.

Host-microbiota interaction helps to explain the bottom-up effects of climate change on a small rodent species

The population cycles of small rodents have puzzled biologists for centuries. There is a growing recognition of the cascading effects of climate change on the population dynamics of rodents. However, the ultimate cause for the bottom-up effects of precipitation is poorly understood, from a microbial perspective. Here, we conducted a precipitation manipulation experiment in the field, and three feeding trials with controlled diets in the laboratory. We found precipitation supplementation facilitated the recovery of a perennial rhizomatous grass (Leymus chinensis) species, which altered the diet composition and increase the intake of fructose and fructooligosaccharides for Brandt’s vole. Lab results showed that this nutrient shift was accompanied by the modulation of gut microbiota composition and functional pathways (especially for the degradation or biosynthesis of L-histidine). Particularly, the relative abundance of Eubacterium hallii was consistently increased after feeding voles with more L. chinensis, fructose or fructooligosaccharide. These modulations ultimately increased the production of short chain fatty acids (SCFAs) and boosted the growth of vole. This study provides evidence that the precipitation pulses cascades through the plant community to affect rodent gut microbiome. Our results highlight the importance of considering host-microbiota interaction when investigating rodent population responses to climate change.

Effects of density dependence and climatic factors on population dynamics of Cricetulus barabensis: a 25-year field study

Rodents often act as keystone species in communities and play important roles in shaping structures and functions of many ecosystems. Understanding the underlying mechanisms of population fluctuation in rodents is therefore of great interest. Using the data from a 25-year field survey carried out in Inner Mongolia, China, we explored the effects of density dependence, local climatic factors, and a large-scale climatic perturbation (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) on the population dynamics of the striped hamster (Cricetulus barabensis), a rodent widely distributed in northern China. We detected a strong negative density-dependent effect on the population dynamics of C. barabensis. Rainfall had a significant positive effect on population change with a 1-year lag. The pregnancy rate of C. barabensis was negatively affected by the annual mean temperature in the current year, but positively associated with the population density in the current year and the annual Southern Oscillation Index in the previous year. Moving-window analyses suggested that, with a window length of 12 years, there was a significant interaction between rainfall and density dependence, with increasing rainfall alleviating the negative effect of density dependence. As C. barabensis often causes agricultural damage and can transmit zoonotic diseases to human beings, our results also have implications for pest and disease control.

Foraging strategies of individual silky pocket mice over a boom-bust cycle in a stochastic dryland ecosystem

Small mammals use multiple foraging strategies to compensate for fluctuating resource quality in stochastic environments. These strategies may lead to increased dietary overlap when competition for resources is strong. To quantify temporal contributions of high (C₃) versus low quality (C₄) resources in diets of silky pocket mice (Perognathus flavus), we used stable carbon isotope (δ¹³C) analysis of 1391 plasma samples collected over 2 years. Of these, 695 samples were from 170 individuals sampled ≥ 3 times across seasons or years, allowing us to assess changes in dietary breadth at the population and individual levels across a boom-bust population cycle. In 2014, the P. flavus population increased to 412 captures compared to 8 captures in prior and subsequent years, while populations of co-occurring small mammals remained stable. As intraspecific competition increased, the population-wide dietary niche of P. flavus did not change, but individual specialization increased significantly. During this period, ~ 27% (41/151) of individuals sampled specialized on C₃ resources, which were abundant during the spring and previous fall seasons. Most of the remaining individuals were C₃-C₄ generalists (64%) (96/151), and only 9% (14/151) specialized on C₄ resources. In 2015, P. flavus population density and resource availability declined, individual dietary breadth expanded (84% generalists), no C₃ specialists were found, and specialization on C₄ resources increased (16%). Our results demonstrate a high degree of inter-individual plasticity in P. flavus foraging strategies, which has implications for how this species will respond to environmental change that is predicted to decrease C₃ resources in the future.

Changing landscapes of Southeast Asia and rodent-borne diseases: decreased diversity but increased transmission risks

The reduction in biodiversity from land use change due to urbanization and agricultural intensification appears to be linked to major epidemiological changes in many human diseases. Increasing disease risks and the emergence of novel pathogens result from increased contact among wildlife, domesticated animals, and humans. We investigated the relationship between human alteration of the environment and the occurrence of generalist and synanthropic rodent species in relation to the diversity and prevalence of rodent-borne pathogens in Southeast Asia, a hotspot of threatened and endangered species, and a foci of emerging infectious diseases. We used data from an extensive pathogen survey of rodents from seven sites in mainland Southeast Asia in conjunction with past and present land cover analyses. At low spatial resolutions, we found that rodent-borne pathogen richness is negatively associated with increasing urbanization, characterized by increased habitat fragmentation, agriculture cover and deforestation. However, at a finer spatial resolution, we found that some major pathogens are favored by environmental characteristics associated with human alteration including irrigation, habitat fragmentation, and increased agricultural land cover. In addition, synanthropic rodents, many of which are important pathogen reservoirs, were associated with fragmented and human-dominated landscapes, which may ultimately enhance the opportunities for zoonotic transmission and human infection by some pathogens.

Long-Term Study of a Hantavirus Reservoir Population in an Urban Protected Area, Argentina

Green spaces in urban areas can play a key role in protecting wildlife. However, the presence of wildlife in urban areas can lead to human health risks. Although the presence of the rodent species Oligoryzomys flavescens (hantavirus reservoir) has been recorded in cities of Argentina, its population dynamics in this type of habitat is still unknown. Here, we evaluated: (1) long-term spatial and temporal patterns of O. flavescens abundance and how these patterns were influenced by weather factors and (2) the seroprevalence of hantavirus and the identity of the viral lineage circulating in the population that inhabits the Costanera Sur Ecological Reserve, a protected area in the city of Buenos Aires. Genetic results confirmed that the pathogenic ANDES Central Lechiguanas virus is present in O. flavescens populations inhabiting this urban reserve. Abundance of O. flavescens showed interannual and seasonal fluctuations, with maximum values in winter and spring and minimum ones in summer and autumn. Summers with the highest abundances of O. flavescens were preceded by warmer winters, while winters with lower abundances were preceded by warmer summers. On the other hand, accumulated precipitations in the previous 6 months positively affected winter abundance. These results could help the authorities in charge of the green spaces of Buenos Aires to identify priority areas and times of the year for the implementation of preventive measures that minimize the contact of rodents with visitors. Such measures could be intensified when winters are warmer than normal, and summers are cooler and wetter than normal.

Effects of tannins on population dynamics of sympatric seed-eating rodents: the potential role of gut tannin-degrading bacteria

Chemical compounds in seeds exert negative and even lethal effects on seed-consuming animals. Tannin-degrading bacteria in the guts of small mammals have been associated with the ability to digest seeds high in tannins. At the population level, it is not known if tannins influence rodent species differently according to the composition of their gut microbiota. Here, we test the hypothesis that sympatric tree species with different tannins exert contrasting effects on population fluctuations of seed-eating rodents. We collected a 10-year dataset of seed crops and rodent population sizes and sequenced 16S rRNA of gut microbes. The abundance of Apodemus peninsulae was not correlated with seed crop of either high-tannin Quercus mongolica or low-tannin Corylus mandshurica, but positively correlated with their total seed crops. Abundance of Tamias sibiricus was negatively correlated with seed crop of Q. mongolica but positively correlated with C. mandshurica. Body masses of A. peninsulae and T. sibiricus decreased when given high-tannin food; however, only the survival of T. sibiricus was reduced. The abundance of microbial genus Lactobacillus exhibiting potential tannin-degrading activity was significantly higher in A. peninsulae than in T. sibiricus. Our results suggest that masting tree species with different tannin concentrations may differentially influence population fluctuations of seed predators hosting different gut microbial communities. Although the conclusion is based on just correlational analysis of a short time-series, seeds with different chemical composition may influence rodent populations differently. Future work should examine these questions further to understand the complex interactions among seeds, gut microbes, and animal populations.

Geographic variation in body size and its relationship with environmental gradients in the Oriental Garden Lizard, Calotes versicolor

Patterns of geographic variation in body size are predicted to evolve as adaptations to local environmental gradients. However, many of these clinal patterns in body size, such as Bergmann's rule, are controversial and require further investigation into ectotherms such as reptiles on a regional scale. To examine the environmental variables (temperature, precipitation, topography and primary productivity) that shaped patterns of geographic variation in body size in the reptile Calotes versicolor, we sampled 180 adult specimens (91 males and 89 females) at 40 locations across the species range in China. The MANOVA results suggest significant sexual size dimorphism in C. versicolor (F_23,124 = 11.32, p < .001). Our results showed that C. versicolor failed to fit the Bergmann's rule. We found that the most important predictors of variation in body size of C. versicolor differed for males and females, but mechanisms related to heat balance and water availability hypotheses were involved in both sexes. Temperature seasonality, precipitation of the driest month, precipitation seasonality, and precipitation of the driest quarter were the most important predictors of variation in body size in males, whereas mean precipitation of the warmest quarter, mean temperature of the wettest quarter, precipitation seasonality, and precipitation of the wettest month were most important for body size variation in females. The discrepancy between patterns of association between the sexes suggested that different selection pressures may be acting in males and females.

Implications of animal water balance for terrestrial food webs

Recent research has documented shifts in per capita trophic interactions and food webs in response to changes in environmental moisture, from the top-down (consumers to plants), rather than solely bottom-up (plants to consumers). These responses may be predictable from effects of physiological, behavioral, and ecological traits on animal water balance, although predictions could be modified by energy or nutrient requirements, the risk of predation, population-level responses, and bottom-up effects. Relatively little work has explicitly explored food web effects of changes in animal water balance, despite the likelihood of widespread relevance, including during periodic droughts in mesic locations, where taxa may lack adaptations for water conservation. More research is needed, particularly in light of climate change and hydrological alteration.

Spatial scale in environmental risk mapping: A Valley fever case study

Background

Valley fever is a fungal infection occurring in desert regions of the U.S. and Central and South America. Environmental risk mapping for this disease is hampered by challenges with detection, case reporting, and diagnostics as well as challenges common to spatial data handling.

Design and methods.

Using 12,349 individual cases in Arizona from 2006 to 2009, we analyzed risk factors at both the individual and area levels.

Results.

Risk factors including elderly population, income status, soil organic carbon, and density of residential area were found to be positively associated with residence of Valley fever cases. A negative association was observed for distance to desert and pasture/hay land cover. The association between incidence and two land cover variables (shrub and cultivated crop lands) varied depending on the spatial scale of the analysis.

Conclusions

The consistence of age, income, population density, and proximity to natural areas supports that these are important predictors of Valley fever risk. However, the inconsistency of the land cover variables across scales highlights the importance of how scale is treated in risk mapping.

Prey-driven control of predator assemblages: zooplankton abundance drives aquatic beetle colonization

Trophic interactions are critical determinants of community structure and ecosystem function. In freshwater habitats, top predators are traditionally viewed as drivers of ecosystem structure, shaping populations of consumers and primary producers. The temporary nature of small water bodies makes them dependent on colonization by many organisms, particularly insects that form highly diverse predator assemblages. We conducted mesocosm experiments with naturally colonizing populations of aquatic beetles to assess how prey (zooplankton) abundances influenced colonization and assemblages of natural populations of aquatic beetles. We experimentally demonstrate that zooplankton populations can be proximate regulators of predator populations and assemblages via prey-density-dependent predator recruitment. Our results provide support for the importance of prey populations in structuring predator populations and the role of habitat selection in structuring communities. We indicate that traditional views of predators as drivers of ecosystem structure in many systems may not provide a comprehensive picture, particularly in the context of highly disturbed or ephemeral habitats.

Climatic variation modulates the indirect effects of large herbivores on small-mammal habitat use

Large mammalian herbivores (LMH) strongly shape the composition and architecture of plant communities. A growing literature shows that negative direct effects of LMH on vegetation frequently propagate to suppress the abundance of smaller consumers. Indirect effects of LMH on the behaviour of these consumers, however, have received comparatively little attention despite their potential ecological significance. We sought to understand (i) how LMH indirectly shape small-mammal habitat use by altering the density and distribution of understorey plants; (ii) how these effects vary with climatic context (here, seasonality in rainfall); and (iii) the extent to which behavioural responses of small mammals are contingent upon small-mammal density. We tested the effects of a diverse LMH community on small-mammal habitat use using 4 years of spatially explicit small-mammal trapping and vegetation data from the UHURU Experiment, a replicated set of LMH exclosures in semi-arid Kenyan savanna. Small-mammal habitat use was positively associated with tree density and negatively associated with bare (unvegetated) patches in all plots and seasons. In the presence of LMH, and especially during the dry season, small mammals consistently selected tree cover and avoided bare patches. In contrast, when LMH were excluded, small mammals were weakly associated with tree cover and did not avoid bare patches as strongly. These behavioural responses of small mammals were largely unaffected by changes in small-mammal density associated with LMH exclusion. Our results show that LMH indirectly affect small-mammal behaviour, and that these effects are influenced by climate and can arise via density-independent mechanisms. This raises the possibility that anthropogenic LMH declines might interact with changing patterns of rainfall to alter small-mammal distribution and behaviour, independent of numerical responses by small mammals to these perturbations. For example, increased rainfall in East Africa (as predicted in many recent climate-model simulations) may relax constraints on small-mammal distribution where LMH are rare or absent, whereas increased aridity and/or drought frequency may tighten them.

Circulating species of Leishmania at microclimate area of Boulemane Province, Morocco: impact of environmental and human factors

BACKGROUND

Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is widely distributed in Morocco where its geographical range and incidence are related to environmental factors. This study aimed to examine the impact of several factors on the distribution of CL in Boulemane Province, which is characterized by several microclimates, and to identify the Leishmania species circulating in these areas.

METHODS

Ordinary least squares regression (OLSR) analysis was performed to study the impact of poverty, vulnerability, population density, urbanization and bioclimatic factors on the distribution of CL in this province. Molecular characterization of parasites was performed using a previously described PCR-RFLP method targeting the ITS1 of ribosomal DNA of Leishmania.

RESULTS

A total of 1009 cases were declared in Boulemane Province between the years 2000 and 2015 with incidences fluctuating over the years (P = 0.007). Analyzing geographical maps of the study region identified four unique microclimate areas; sub-humid, semi-arid, arid and Saharan. The geographical distribution and molecular identification of species shows that the Saharan microclimate, characterized by the presence of Leishmania major was the most affected (47.78%) followed by semi-arid area where Leishmania tropica was identified in three districts. Among several environmental factors included in the study, poverty had the greatest influence on the spatial extension of the disease in this province.

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence of CL in Boulemane Province varies between microclimate areas, and environmental factors partly explain this variation. However, the existence of CL in the most affected districts is mainly related to poverty, population movement and human behavior. To our knowledge, this the first study utilizing molecular techniques to confirm L. tropica and L. major as the causative agents of CL in Boulemane Province. Our findings indicate that the spatial and temporal distribution of CL in Boulemane Province is strongly related to poverty and population movement.

Modeling Late-Summer Distribution of Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) in the Western United States

Increasing development across the western United States (USA) elevates concerns about effects on wildlife resources; the golden eagle (Aquila chrysaetos) is of special concern in this regard. Knowledge of golden eagle abundance and distribution across the western USA must be improved to help identify and conserve areas of major importance to the species. We used distance sampling and visual mark-recapture procedures to estimate golden eagle abundance from aerial line-transect surveys conducted across four Bird Conservation Regions in the western USA between 15 August and 15 September in 2006–2010, 2012, and 2013. To assess golden eagle-habitat relationships at this scale, we modeled counts of golden eagles seen during surveys in 2006–2010, adjusted for probability of detection, and used land cover and other environmental factors as predictor variables within 20-km² sampling units randomly selected from survey transects. We found evidence of positive relationships between intensity of use by golden eagles and elevation, solar radiation, and mean wind speed, and of negative relationships with the proportion of landscape classified as forest or as developed. The model accurately predicted habitat use observed during surveys conducted in 2012 and 2013. We used the model to construct a map predicting intensity of use by golden eagles during late summer across our ~2 million-km² study area. The map can be used to help prioritize landscapes for conservation efforts, identify areas where mitigation efforts may be most effective, and identify regions for additional research and monitoring. In addition, our map can be used to develop region-specific (e.g., state-level) density estimates based on the latest information on golden eagle abundance from a late-summer survey and aid designation of geographic management units for the species.

Animal water balance drives top-down effects in a riparian forest-implications for terrestrial trophic cascades

Despite the clear importance of water balance to the evolution of terrestrial life, much remains unknown about the effects of animal water balance on food webs. Based on recent research suggesting animal water imbalance can increase trophic interaction strengths in cages, we hypothesized that water availability could drive top-down effects in open environments, influencing the occurrence of trophic cascades. We manipulated large spider abundance and water availability in 20 × 20 m open-air plots in a streamside forest in Arizona, USA, and measured changes in cricket and small spider abundance and leaf damage. As expected, large spiders reduced both cricket abundance and herbivory under ambient, dry conditions, but not where free water was added. When water was added (free or within moist leaves), cricket abundance was unaffected by large spiders, but spiders still altered herbivory, suggesting behavioural effects. Moreover, we found threshold-type increases in herbivory at moderately low soil moisture (between 5.5% and 7% by volume), suggesting the possibility that water balance may commonly influence top-down effects. Overall, our results point towards animal water balance as an important driver of direct and indirect species interactions and food web dynamics in terrestrial ecosystems.

Influence of free water availability on a desert carnivore and herbivore

Anthropogenic manipulation of finite resources on the landscape to benefit individual species or communities is commonly employed by conservation and management agencies. One such action in arid regions is the construction and maintenance of water developments (i.e., wildlife guzzlers) adding free water on the landscape to buttress local populations, influence animal movements, or affect distributions of certain species of interest. Despite their prevalence, the utility of wildlife guzzlers remains largely untested. We employed a before-after control-impact (BACI) design over a 4-year period on the US Army Dugway Proving Ground, Utah, USA, to determine whether water availability at wildlife guzzlers influenced relative abundance of black-tailed jackrabbits Lepus californicus and relative use of areas near that resource by coyotes Canis latrans, and whether coyote visitations to guzzlers would decrease following elimination of water. Eliminating water availability at guzzlers did not influence jackrabbit relative abundance. Coyote relative use was impacted by water availability, with elimination of water reducing use in areas associated with our treatment, but not with areas associated with our control. Visitations of radio-collared coyotes to guzzlers declined nearly 3-fold following elimination of water. Our study provides the first evidence of a potential direct effect of water sources on a mammalian carnivore in an arid environment, but the ecological relevance of our finding is debatable. Future investigations aimed at determining water effects on terrestrial mammals could expand on our findings by incorporating manipulations of water availability, obtaining absolute estimates of population parameters and vital rates and incorporating fine-scale spatiotemporal data.

Spatial and temporal synchrony in reptile population dynamics in variable environments

Resources are seldom distributed equally across space, but many species exhibit spatially synchronous population dynamics. Such synchrony suggests the operation of large-scale external drivers, such as rainfall or wildfire, or the influence of oasis sites that provide water, shelter, or other resources. However, testing the generality of these factors is not easy, especially in variable environments. Using a long-term dataset (13-22 years) from a large (8000 km(2)) study region in arid Central Australia, we tested firstly for regional synchrony in annual rainfall and the dynamics of six reptile species across nine widely separated sites. For species that showed synchronous spatial dynamics, we then used multivariate follow a multivariate auto-regressive state-space (MARSS) models to predict that regional rainfall would be positively associated with their populations. For asynchronous species, we used MARSS models to explore four other possible population structures: (1) populations were asynchronous, (2) differed between oasis and non-oasis sites, (3) differed between burnt and unburnt sites, or (4) differed between three sub-regions with different rainfall gradients. Only one species showed evidence of spatial population synchrony and our results provide little evidence that rainfall synchronizes reptile populations. The oasis or the wildfire hypotheses were the best-fitting models for the other five species. Thus, our six study species appear generally to be structured in space into one or two populations across the study region. Our findings suggest that for arid-dwelling reptile populations, spatial and temporal dynamics are structured by abiotic events, but individual responses to covariates at smaller spatial scales are complex and poorly understood.

The influence of wildlife water developments and vegetation on rodent abundance in the Great Basin Desert

Rodent communities have multiple functions including comprising a majority of the mammalian diversity within an ecosystem, providing a significant portion of the available biomass consumed by predators, and contributing to ecosystem services. Despite the importance of rodent communities, few investigations have explored the effects of increasing anthropogenic modifications to the landscape on rodents. Throughout the western United States, the construction of artificial water developments to benefit game species is commonplace. While benefits for certain species have been documented, several researchers recently hypothesized that these developments may cause unintentional negative effects to desert-adapted species and communities. To test this idea, we sampled rodents near to and distant from wildlife water developments over 4 consecutive summers. We employed an asymmetrical before-after-control-impact (BACI) design with sampling over 4 summers to determine if water developments influenced total rodent abundance. We performed an additional exploratory analysis to determine if factors other than free water influenced rodent abundance. We found no evidence that water developments impacted rodent abundance. Rodent abundance was primarily driven by vegetation type and year of sampling. Our findings suggested that water developments on our study area do not represent a significant disturbance to rodent abundance and that rodent abundance was influenced by the vegetative community and temporal factors linked to precipitation and primary plant production. Our findings represent one of the 1st efforts to determine the effects of an anthropogenic activity on the rodent community utilizing a manipulation design.

Rapid warming and drought negatively impact population size and reproductive dynamics of an avian predator in the arid southwest

Avian communities of arid ecosystems may be particularly vulnerable to global climate change due to the magnitude of projected change for desert regions and the inherent challenges for species residing in resource limited ecosystems. How arid-zone birds will be affected by rapid increases in air temperature and increased drought frequency and severity is poorly understood because avian responses to climate change have primarily been studied in the relatively mesic northern temperate regions. We studied the effects of increasing air temperature and aridity on a Burrowing Owl (Athene cunicularia) population in the southwestern United States from 1998 to 2013. Over 16 years, the breeding population declined 98.1%, from 52 pairs to 1 pair, and nest success and fledgling output also declined significantly. These trends were strongly associated with the combined effects of decreased precipitation and increased air temperature. Arrival on the breeding grounds, pair formation, nest initiation, and hatch dates all showed significant delays ranging from 9.4 to 25.1 days over 9 years, which have negative effects on reproduction. Adult and juvenile body mass decreased significantly over time, with a loss of 7.9% mass in adult males and 10.9% mass in adult females over 16 years, and a loss of 20.0% mass in nestlings over 8 years. Taken together, these population and reproductive trends have serious implications for local population persistence. The southwestern United States has been identified as a climate change hotspot, with projections of warmer temperatures, less winter precipitation, and an increase in frequency and severity of extreme events including drought and heat waves. An increasingly warm and dry climate may contribute to this species' decline and may already be a driving force of their apparent decline in the desert southwest.

Effects of Humidity Variation on the Hantavirus Infection and Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome Occurrence in Subtropical China

Infection rates of rodents have a significant influence on the transmission of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS). In this study, four cities and two counties with high HFRS incidence in eastern Hunan Province in China were studied, and surveillance data of rodents, as well as HFRS cases and related environmental variables from 2007 to 2010, were collected. Results indicate that the distribution and infection rates of rodents are closely associated with environmental conditions. Hantavirus infections in rodents were positively correlated with temperature vegetation dryness index and negatively correlated with elevation. The predictive risk maps based on multivariate regression model revealed that the annual variation of infection risks is small, whereas monthly variation is large and corresponded well to the seasonal variation of human HFRS incidence. The identification of risk factors and risk prediction provides decision support for rodent surveillance and the prevention and control of HFRS.