Community-level respiration of prokaryotic microbes may rise with global warming

Predicting bacterial phenotypic traits through improved machine learning using high-quality, curated datasets

Predicting prokaryotic phenotypes-observable traits that govern functionality, adaptability, and interactions-holds significant potential for fields such as biotechnology, environmental sciences, and evolutionary biology. In this study, we leverage machine learning to explore the relationship between prokaryotic genotypes and phenotypes. Utilizing the highly standardized datasets in the BacDive database, we model eight physiological properties based on protein family inventories, evaluate model performance using multiple metrics, and examine the biological implications of our predictions. The high confidence values achieved underscore the importance of data quality and quantity for reliably inferring bacterial phenotypes. Our approach generates 50,396 completely new datapoints for 15,938 strains, now openly available in the BacDive database, thereby enriching existing phenotypic resources and enabling further research. The open-source software we provide can be readily applied to other datasets, such as those from metagenomic studies, and to various applications, including assessing the potential of soil bacteria for bioremediation.

Agricultural soil microbiomes at the climate frontier: Nutrient-mediated adaptation strategies for sustainable farming

The equilibrium transformation of soil microbial community dynamics and succession across various temporal and spatial dimensions plays a critical role in maintaining plant adaptability. Intensive agricultural practices accelerate the succession of plant microbial communities, rendering their restoration function more vulnerable. Climate change, with its variable impacts, affects the resilience of plant microbial communities through regulatory and mediating effects. Investigating the spatiotemporal dynamics of soil microbial communities in the context of climate change offers valuable insights into developing robust and resilient microbial ecosystems. This review examines the regulatory role of soil resources in plant microbial communities, the interactive effects of climate change on soil resource regulation, and the prediction of microbial community structures through resource allocation. Additionally, it explores the mechanisms that sustain ecological resilience in plant microbial community systems, emphasizing the application of the profit-averaging law.

Oxidation state of bioavailable dissolved organic matter influences bacterioplankton respiration and growth efficiency

Oxygen consumption by oceanic microbes can predict respiration (CO2 production) but requires an assumed respiratory quotient (RQ; ΔO2/ΔCO2). Measured apparent RQs (ARQs) can be impacted by various processes, including nitrification and changes in dissolved organic matter (DOM) composition, leading to discrepancies between ARQ and actual RQ. In DOM remineralization experiments conducted in the eastern North Atlantic Ocean, ARQs averaged 1.39 ± 0.14, similar to predictions for complete consumption of plankton biomass. DOM removed with an elevated nominal oxidation state (i.e., more oxidized DOM), as detected by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry, coincided with increased hydrolyzable amino acid removal, increased ARQs and bacterioplankton respiration (BR), and a decreased bacterioplankton growth efficiency (BGE). Across experiments, evidence emerged that nitrification and DOM partial oxidation, driven in part by bacterioplankton members of OM43, SAR92 and Rhodobacteraceae, can elevate BR relative to bacterioplankton consumption of plankton-derived carbon. These rare synoptic measurements of interrelated variables reveal complex biochemical and cellular processes underlying variability in large-scale CO2 production estimates.

Temperature structuring of microbial communities on a global scale

Temperature is a fundamental physical constraint regulating key aspects of microbial life. Protein binding, membrane fluidity, central dogma processes, and metabolism are all tightly controlled by temperature, such that growth rate profiles across taxa and environments follow the same general curve. An open question in microbial ecology is how the effects of temperature on individual traits scale up to determine community structure and function at planetary scales. Here, we review recent theoretical and experimental efforts to connect physiological responses to the outcome of species interactions, the assembly of microbial communities, and their function as temperature changes. We identify open questions in the field and define a roadmap for future studies.

Awakening: Potential Release of Dormant Chemicals from Thawing Permafrost Soils under Climate Change

Permafrost is a crucial part of the Earth's cryosphere. These millennia-old frozen soils not only are significant carbon reservoirs but also store a variety of chemicals. Accelerated permafrost thaw due to global warming leads to profound consequences such as infrastructure damage, hydrological changes, and, notably, environmental concerns from the release of various chemicals. In this perspective, we metaphorically term long-preserved substances as "dormant chemicals" that experience an "awakening" during permafrost thaw. We begin by providing a comprehensive overview and categorization of these chemicals and their potential transformations, utilizing a combination of field observations, laboratory studies, and modeling approaches to assess their environmental impacts. Following this, we put forward several perspectives on how to enhance the scientific understanding of their ensuing environmental impacts in the context of climate change. Ultimately, we advocate for broader research engagement in permafrost exploration and emphasize the need for extensive environmental chemical studies. This will significantly enhance our understanding of the consequences of permafrost thaw and its broader impact on other ecosystems under rapid climate warming.

Divergence of discrete- versus continuous-time calculations of the temperature dependence of maximum population growth rate

The temperature dependence of population fitness( r m ) is key to predicting ectotherm responses to climatic change. Discrete-time matrix projection models (MPMs) are used to calculater m because they capture variation in its underlying life-history trait values and time delays inherent in those traits. However, MPM calculations can be laborious and do not capture time's continuous nature. More complex approaches for calculating temperature-dependentr m may be more accurate but they are notoriously difficult to parameterise. Ordinary differential equation-based models (ODEMs) offer a relatively tractable alternative of intermediate complexity, but it is unknown whether they broadly agree with MPM calculations when environmental variation is introduced. Here we investigate differences in the predicted temperature dependence ofr m obtained from an ODEM with those calculated from MPMs using temperature- and resource dependent life-history trait data for the disease vector, Aedes aegypti. We show that the level of agreement between discrete- and continuous-time representations of temperature-dependentr m can vary with resource availability and is extremely sensitive to juvenile survival characterisations. This finding suggests that ODEMs can only provide comparabler m predictions to standard methods when resources are not limiting, questioning the ability of existing mathematical models to reliably predict arthropod responses to environmental variation.

No universal mathematical model for thermal performance curves across traits and taxonomic groups

In ectotherms, the performance of physiological, ecological and life-history traits universally increases with temperature to a maximum before decreasing again. Identifying the most appropriate thermal performance model for a specific trait type has broad applications, from metabolic modelling at the cellular level to forecasting the effects of climate change on population, ecosystem and disease transmission dynamics. To date, numerous mathematical models have been designed, but a thorough comparison among them is lacking. In particular, we do not know if certain models consistently outperform others and how factors such as sampling resolution and trait or organismal identity influence model performance. To fill this knowledge gap, we compile 2,739 thermal performance datasets from diverse traits and taxa, to which we fit a comprehensive set of 83 existing mathematical models. We detect remarkable variation in model performance that is not primarily driven by sampling resolution, trait type, or taxonomic information. Our results reveal a surprising lack of well-defined scenarios in which certain models are more appropriate than others. To aid researchers in selecting the appropriate set of models for any given dataset or research objective, we derive a classification of the 83 models based on the average similarity of their fits.

Spatial distribution of cable bacteria in nationwide organic-matter-polluted urban rivers in China

An overload of labile organic matter triggers the water blackening and odorization in urban rivers, leading to a unique microbiome driving biogeochemical cycles in these anoxic habitats. Among the key players in these environments, cable bacteria interfere directly with C/N/S/O cycling, and are closely associated with phylogenetically diverse microorganisms in anoxic sediment as an electron conduit to mediate long-distance electron transport from deep-anoxic-layer sulfide to oxic-layer oxygen. Despite their hypothesized importance in black-odorous urban rivers, the spatial distribution patterns and roles of cable bacteria in large-scale polluted urban rivers remain inadequately understood. This study examined the diversity and spatial distribution pattern of cable bacteria in sediment samples from 186 black-odorous urban rivers across China. Results revealed the co-existence of two well-characterized cable bacteria (i.e., Candidatus Electrothrix and Candidatus Electronema), with Candidatus Electrothrix exhibiting a comparatively wider distribution in the polluted urban rivers. Concentrations of DOC, SS, sulfate, nitrate, and heavy metals (e.g., Ni and Cr) were correlated with the cable bacteria diversity, indicating their essential role in biogeochemical cycles. The activation energy of cable bacteria was 0.624 eV, close to the canonical 0.65 eV. Furthermore, cable bacteria were identified as key connectors and module hubs, closely associated with denitrifiers, sulfate-reducing bacteria, methanogens and alkane degraders, highlighting their role as keystone functional lineages in the contaminated urban rivers. Our study provided the first large-scale and comprehensive insight into the cable bacteria diversity, spatial distribution, and their essential function as keystone species in organic-matter-polluted urban rivers.

Variation in thermal physiology can drive the temperature-dependence of microbial community richness

Predicting how species diversity changes along environmental gradients is an enduring problem in ecology. In microbes, current theories tend to invoke energy availability and enzyme kinetics as the main drivers of temperature-richness relationships. Here, we derive a general empirically-grounded theory that can explain this phenomenon by linking microbial species richness in competitive communities to variation in the temperature-dependence of their interaction and growth rates. Specifically, the shape of the microbial community temperature-richness relationship depends on how rapidly the strength of effective competition between species pairs changes with temperature relative to the variance of their growth rates. Furthermore, it predicts that a thermal specialist-generalist tradeoff in growth rates alters coexistence by shifting this balance, causing richness to peak at relatively higher temperatures. Finally, we show that the observed patterns of variation in thermal performance curves of metabolic traits across extant bacterial taxa is indeed sufficient to generate the variety of community-level temperature-richness responses observed in the real world. Our results provide a new and general mechanism that can help explain temperature-diversity gradients in microbial communities, and provide a quantitative framework for interlinking variation in the thermal physiology of microbial species to their community-level diversity.

Impact of the Lung Microbiota on Development and Progression of Lung Cancer

The past several years have provided a more profound understanding of the role of microbial species in the lung. The respiratory tract is a delicate ecosystem of bacteria, fungi, parasites, and viruses. Detecting microbial DNA, pathogen-associated molecular patterns (PAMPs), and metabolites in sputum is poised to revolutionize the early diagnosis of lung cancer. The longitudinal monitoring of the lung microbiome holds the potential to predict treatment response and side effects, enabling more personalized and effective treatment options. However, most studies into the lung microbiota have been observational and have not adequately considered the impact of dietary intake and air pollutants. This gap makes it challenging to establish a direct causal relationship between environmental exposure, changes in the composition of the microbiota, lung carcinogenesis, and tumor progression. A holistic understanding of the lung microbiota that considers both diet and air pollutants may pave the way to improved prevention and management strategies for lung cancer.

The global distribution and climate resilience of marine heterotrophic prokaryotes

Heterotrophic Bacteria and Archaea (prokaryotes) are a major component of marine food webs and global biogeochemical cycles. Yet, there is limited understanding about how prokaryotes vary across global environmental gradients, and how their global abundance and metabolic activity (production and respiration) may be affected by climate change. Using global datasets of prokaryotic abundance, cell carbon and metabolic activity we reveal that mean prokaryotic biomass varies by just under 3-fold across the global surface ocean, while total prokaryotic metabolic activity increases by more than one order of magnitude from polar to tropical coastal and upwelling regions. Under climate change, global prokaryotic biomass in surface waters is projected to decline ~1.5% per °C of warming, while prokaryotic respiration will increase ~3.5% ( ~ 0.85 Pg C yr-1). The rate of prokaryotic biomass decline is one-third that of zooplankton and fish, while the rate of increase in prokaryotic respiration is double. This suggests that future, warmer oceans could be increasingly dominated by prokaryotes, diverting a growing proportion of primary production into microbial food webs and away from higher trophic levels as well as reducing the capacity of the deep ocean to sequester carbon, all else being equal.

Bacterial and viral co-infections in aquaculture under climate warming: co-evolutionary implications, diagnosis, and treatment

Climate change and the associated environmental temperature fluctuations are contributing to increases in the frequency and severity of disease outbreaks in both wild and farmed aquatic species. This has a significant impact on biodiversity and also puts global food production systems, such as aquaculture, at risk. Most infections are the result of complex interactions between multiple pathogens, and understanding these interactions and their co-evolutionary mechanisms is crucial for developing effective diagnosis and control strategies. In this review, we discuss current knowledge on bacteria-bacteria, virus-virus, and bacterial and viral co-infections in aquaculture as well as their co-evolution in the context of global warming. We also propose a framework and different novel methods (e.g. advanced molecular tools such as digital PCR and next-generation sequencing) to (1) precisely identify overlooked co-infections, (2) gain an understanding of the co-infection dynamics and mechanisms by knowing species interactions, and (3) facilitate the development multi-pathogen preventive measures such as polyvalent vaccines. As aquaculture disease outbreaks are forecasted to increase both due to the intensification of practices to meet the protein demand of the increasing global population and as a result of global warming, understanding and treating co-infections in aquatic species has important implications for global food security and the economy.

Temperature and CO2 interactively drive shifts in the compositional and functional structure of peatland protist communities

Microbes affect the global carbon cycle that influences climate change and are in turn influenced by environmental change. Here, we use data from a long-term whole-ecosystem warming experiment at a boreal peatland to answer how temperature and CO2 jointly influence communities of abundant, diverse, yet poorly understood, non-fungi microbial Eukaryotes (protists). These microbes influence ecosystem function directly through photosynthesis and respiration, and indirectly, through predation on decomposers (bacteria and fungi). Using a combination of high-throughput fluid imaging and 18S amplicon sequencing, we report large climate-induced, community-wide shifts in the community functional composition of these microbes (size, shape, and metabolism) that could alter overall function in peatlands. Importantly, we demonstrate a taxonomic convergence but a functional divergence in response to warming and elevated CO2 with most environmental responses being contingent on organismal size: warming effects on functional composition are reversed by elevated CO2 and amplified in larger microbes but not smaller ones. These findings show how the interactive effects of warming and rising CO2 levels could alter the structure and function of peatland microbial food webs-a fragile ecosystem that stores upwards of 25% of all terrestrial carbon and is increasingly threatened by human exploitation.

Hotter-is-not-better: A study on the thermal response of a winter active and nocturnal beetle

While there are numerous examples of thermogenesis processes in poikilothermic insects that maintain a stable temperature for a certain time and in certain parts of the body, there is a lack of information on ectothermic insect species capable of remaining active under "cold" conditions that would be challenging for other species. Such a thermal strategy would imply the existence of a metabolism that can operate at different temperatures without the need to increase body temperature when experiencing cold environmental conditions. This "hotter-is-not-better" thermal strategy is considered ancestral and conjectured to be linked to the origin and evolution of endothermy. In this study, we examined the thermal performance of a large-bodied dung beetle species (Chelotrupes momus) capable of being active during the winter nights in the Iberian Mediterranean region. Field and laboratory results were obtained using thermocamera records, thermocouples, data loggers and spectrometers that measured ultraviolet, visible and near-infrared wavelengths. The thermal data clearly indicated that this species can remain active at a body temperature of approximately 6 °C without the need to warm its body above ambient temperature. Comparing the spectrophotometric data of the species under study with that from other previously examined dung beetle species indicated that the exoskeleton of this particular species likely enhances the absorption of infrared radiation, thereby implying a dual role of the exoskeleton in both heat acquisition and heat dissipation. Taken together, these results suggest that this species has morphological and metabolic adaptations that enable life processes at temperatures that are typically unsuitable for most insect species in the region.

Effects of short and long-term thermal exposure on microbial compositions in soils contaminated with mixed benzene and benzo[a]pyrene: A short communication

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene (BTEX) are the most persistent and toxic organic contaminants often found co-contaminated in anthropogenic and petrochemical industrial sites. Therefore, an experiment was performed for the safe biodegradation of benzene and benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) through thermally-enhanced biodegradation, and to explore the influence of elevated thermal treatments on microbial diversity and composition. The results revealed that elevated thermal treatments (15 to 45 °C) significantly enhanced the diversity of both bacteria and fungi. The composition analysis revealed that short-term and long-term elevated temperature conditions can directly enhance the specificity of microorganisms that play a crucial role in the biodegradation of benzene and BaP co-contaminated soil. Moreover, the indirect role of elevated temperature conditions on microbial compositions was through the fluctuations of soil properties, especially soil pH, moisture, TOC, potassium, phosphorous, total Fe, Fe(II), and Fe(III). In addition, the correlation analyses revealed that thermal exposure enhances the synergistic association (fungal-fungal, fungal-bacterial, bacterial-bacterial) of microbes to degrade the toxic contaminants and to cope with harsh environmental conditions. These results concluded that the biodegradation of benzene and BaP co-contamination was efficiently enhanced under the thermally-enhanced biodegradation approach and the elevation of temperature can affect the microbial compositions directly via microbial specificity or indirectly by influencing the soil properties.

Warming effects on grassland soil microbial communities are amplified in cool months

Global warming modulates soil respiration (RS) via microbial decomposition, which is seasonally dependent. Yet, the magnitude and direction of this modulation remain unclear, partly owing to the lack of knowledge on how microorganisms respond to seasonal changes. Here, we investigated the temporal dynamics of soil microbial communities over 12 consecutive months under experimental warming in a tallgrass prairie ecosystem. The interplay between warming and time altered (P < 0.05) the taxonomic and functional compositions of microbial communities. During the cool months (January to February and October to December), warming induced a soil microbiome with a higher genomic potential for carbon decomposition, community-level ribosomal RNA operon (rrn) copy numbers, and microbial metabolic quotients, suggesting that warming stimulated fast-growing microorganisms that enhanced carbon decomposition. Modeling analyses further showed that warming reduced the temperature sensitivity of microbial carbon use efficiency (CUE) by 28.7% when monthly average temperature was low, resulting in lower microbial CUE and higher heterotrophic respiration (Rh) potentials. Structural equation modeling showed that warming modulated both Rh and RS directly by altering soil temperature and indirectly by influencing microbial community traits, soil moisture, nitrate content, soil pH, and gross primary productivity. The modulation of Rh by warming was more pronounced in cooler months compared to warmer ones. Together, our findings reveal distinct warming-induced effects on microbial functional traits in cool months, challenging the norm of soil sampling only in the peak growing season, and advancing our mechanistic understanding of the seasonal pattern of RS and Rh sensitivity to warming.

Microbial regulation of feedbacks to ecosystem change

Microbes are key biodiversity components of all ecosystems and control vital ecosystem functions. Although we have just begun to unravel the scales and factors that regulate microbial communities, their role in mediating ecosystem stability in response to disturbances remains underexplored. Here, we review evidence of how, when, and where microbes regulate or drive disturbance feedbacks. Negative feedbacks dampen the impacts of disturbance, which maintain ecosystem stability, whereas positive feedbacks instead erode stability by amplifying the disturbance. Here we describe the processes underlying the responses to disturbance using a hierarchy of functional traits, and we exemplify how these may drive biogeochemical feedbacks. We suggest that the feedback potential of functional traits at different hierarchical levels is contingent on the complexity and heterogeneity of the environment.

Unraveling prokaryotic diversity distribution and functional pattern on nitrogen and methane cycling in the subtropical Western North Pacific Ocean

Prokaryotes play an important role in marine nitrogen and methane cycles. However, their community changes and metabolic modifications to the concurrent impact of ocean warming (OW), acidification (OA), deoxygenation (OD), and anthropogenic‑nitrogen-deposition (AND) from the surface to the deep ocean remains unknown. We examined here the amplicon sequencing approach across the surface (0-200 m; SL), intermediate (200-1000 m; IL), and deep layers (1000-2200 m; DL), and characterized the simultaneous impacts of OW, OA, OD, and AND on the Western North Pacific Ocean prokaryotic changes and their functional pattern in nitrogen and methane cycles. Results showed that SL possesses higher ammonium oxidation community/metabolic composition assumably the reason for excess nitrogen input from AND and modification of their kinetic properties to OW adaptation. Expanding OD at IL showed hypoxic conditions in the oxygen minimum layer, inducing higher microbial respiration that elevates the dimerization of nitrification genes for higher nitrous oxide production. The aerobic methane-oxidation composition was dominant in SL presumably the reason for adjustment in prokaryotic optimal temperature to OW, while anaerobic oxidation composition was dominant at IL due to the evolutionary changes coupling with higher nitrification. Our findings refocus on climate-change impacts on the open ocean ecosystem from the surface to the deep-environment integrating climate-drivers as key factors for higher nitrous-oxide and methane emissions.

Temperature and predators as interactive drivers of community properties

The effects of warming on ecological communities emerge from a range of potentially asymmetric impacts on individual physiology and development. Understanding these responses, however, is limited by our ability to connect mechanisms or emergent patterns across the many processes that drive variation in demography. Further complicating this understanding is the gain or loss of predators to many communities, which may interact with changes in temperature to drive community change. Here we conducted a factorial warming and predation experiment to test generalized predictions about responses to warming. We used microcosms with a range of protists, rotifers, and a gastrotrich, with and without the predator Actinosphaerium, to assess changes in diversity, body size, function, and composition in response to warming. We find that community respiration and predator:prey biovolume ratios peak at intermediate temperatures, while species richness declined with temperature. We also found that overall biomass increased with species richness, driven by the effect of temperature on richness. There was little evidence of an interaction between predation and temperature change, likely because the predator was mostly limited to the intermediate temperatures. Overall, our results suggest that general predictions about community change are still challenging to make but may benefit by considering multiple dimensions of community patterns in an integrated way.

High speciation rate of niche specialists in hot springs

Ecological and evolutionary processes simultaneously regulate microbial diversity, but the evolutionary processes and their driving forces remain largely unexplored. Here we investigated the ecological and evolutionary characteristics of microbiota in hot springs spanning a broad temperature range (54.8-80 °C) by sequencing the 16S rRNA genes. Our results demonstrated that niche specialists and niche generalists are embedded in a complex interaction of ecological and evolutionary dynamics. On the thermal tolerance niche axis, thermal (T) sensitive (at a specific temperature) versus T-resistant (at least in five temperatures) species were characterized by different niche breadth, community abundance and dispersal potential, consequently differing in potential evolutionary trajectory. The niche-specialized T-sensitive species experienced strong temperature barriers, leading to completely species shift and high fitness but low abundant communities at each temperature ("home niche"), and such trade-offs thus reinforced peak performance, as evidenced by high speciation across temperatures and increasing diversification potential with temperature. In contrast, T-resistant species are advantageous of niche expansion but with poor local performance, as shown by wide niche breadth with high extinction, indicating these niche generalists are "jack-of-all-trades, master-of-none". Despite of such differences, the T-sensitive and T-resistant species are evolutionarily interacted. Specifically, the continuous transition from T-sensitive to T-resistant species insured the exclusion probability of T-resistant species at a relatively constant level across temperatures. The co-evolution and co-adaptation of T-sensitive and T-resistant species were in line with the red queen theory. Collectively, our findings demonstrate that high speciation of niche specialists could alleviate the environmental-filtering-induced negative effect on diversity.

Climate change-related warming reduces thermal sensitivity and modifies metabolic activity of coastal benthic bacterial communities

Besides long-term average temperature increases, climate change is projected to result in a higher frequency of marine heatwaves. Coastal zones are some of the most productive and vulnerable ecosystems, with many stretches already under anthropogenic pressure. Microorganisms in coastal areas are central to marine energy and nutrient cycling and therefore, it is important to understand how climate change will alter these ecosystems. Using a long-term heated bay (warmed for 50 years) in comparison with an unaffected adjacent control bay and an experimental short-term thermal (9 days at 6-35 °C) incubation experiment, this study provides new insights into how coastal benthic water and surface sediment bacterial communities respond to temperature change. Benthic bacterial communities in the two bays reacted differently to temperature increases with productivity in the heated bay having a broader thermal tolerance compared with that in the control bay. Furthermore, the transcriptional analysis showed that the heated bay benthic bacteria had higher transcript numbers related to energy metabolism and stress compared to the control bay, while short-term elevated temperatures in the control bay incubation experiment induced a transcript response resembling that observed in the heated bay field conditions. In contrast, a reciprocal response was not observed for the heated bay community RNA transcripts exposed to lower temperatures indicating a potential tipping point in community response may have been reached. In summary, long-term warming modulates the performance, productivity, and resilience of bacterial communities in response to warming.

The temperature dependence of microbial community respiration is amplified by changes in species interactions

Respiratory release of CO2 by microorganisms is one of the main components of the global carbon cycle. However, there are large uncertainties regarding the effects of climate warming on the respiration of microbial communities, owing to a lack of mechanistic, empirically tested theory that incorporates dynamic species interactions. We present a general mathematical model which predicts that thermal sensitivity of microbial community respiration increases as species interactions change from competition to facilitation (for example, commensalism, cooperation and mutualism). This is because facilitation disproportionately increases positive feedback between the thermal sensitivities of species-level metabolic and biomass accumulation rates at warmer temperatures. We experimentally validate our theoretical predictions in a community of eight bacterial taxa and show that a shift from competition to facilitation, after a month of co-adaptation, caused a 60% increase in the thermal sensitivity of respiration relative to de novo assembled communities that had not co-adapted. We propose that rapid changes in species interactions can substantially change the temperature dependence of microbial community respiration, which should be accounted for in future climate-carbon cycle models.

Latent functional diversity may accelerate microbial community responses to temperature fluctuations

How complex microbial communities respond to climatic fluctuations remains an open question. Due to their relatively short generation times and high functional diversity, microbial populations harbor great potential to respond as a community through a combination of strain-level phenotypic plasticity, adaptation, and species sorting. However, the relative importance of these mechanisms remains unclear. We conducted a laboratory experiment to investigate the degree to which bacterial communities can respond to changes in environmental temperature through a combination of phenotypic plasticity and species sorting alone. We grew replicate soil communities from a single location at six temperatures between 4°C and 50°C. We found that phylogenetically and functionally distinct communities emerge at each of these temperatures, with K-strategist taxa favored under cooler conditions and r-strategist taxa under warmer conditions. We show that this dynamic emergence of distinct communities across a wide range of temperatures (in essence, community-level adaptation) is driven by the resuscitation of latent functional diversity: the parent community harbors multiple strains pre-adapted to different temperatures that are able to 'switch on' at their preferred temperature without immigration or adaptation. Our findings suggest that microbial community function in nature is likely to respond rapidly to climatic temperature fluctuations through shifts in species composition by resuscitation of latent functional diversity.

Microbial respiratory thermal adaptation is regulated by r-/K-strategy dominance

Microbial thermal adaptation is considered to be one of the core mechanisms affecting soil carbon cycling. However, the role of microbial community composition in controlling thermal adaptation is poorly understood. Using microbial communities from the rhizosphere and bulk soils in an 8-year warming experiment as a model, we experimentally demonstrate that respiratory thermal adaptation was much stronger in microbial K-strategist-dominated bulk soils than in microbial r-strategist-dominated rhizosphere soils. Soil carbon availability exerted strong selection on the dominant ecological strategy of the microbial community, indirectly influencing respiratory thermal adaptation. Our findings shed light on the linchpin of the dominant ecological strategy exhibited by the microbial community in determining its respiratory thermal adaptation, with implications for understanding soil carbon losses under warming.

Can water composition and weather factors predict fecal indicator bacteria removal in retention ponds in variable weather conditions?

Retention ponds provide benefits including flood control, groundwater recharge, and water quality improvement, but changes in weather conditions could limit the effectiveness in improving microbial water quality metrics. The concentration of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB), which is used as regulatory standards to assess microbial water quality in retention ponds, could vary widely based on many factors including local weather and influent water chemistry and composition. In this critical review, we analyzed 7421 data collected from 19 retention ponds across North America listed in the International Stormwater BMP Database to examine if variable FIB removal in the field conditions can be predicted based on changes in these weather and water composition factors. Our analysis confirms that FIB removal in retention ponds is sensitive to weather conditions or seasons, but temperature and precipitation data may not describe the variable FIB removal. These weather conditions affect suspended solid and nutrient concentrations, which in turn could affect FIB concentration in the ponds. Removal of total suspended solids and total P only explained 5% and 12% of FIB removal data, respectively, and TN removal had no correlation with FIB removal. These results indicate that regression-based modeling with a single parameter as input has limited use to predict FIB removal due to the interactive nature of their effects on FIB removal. In contrast, machine learning algorithms such as the random forest method were able to predict 65% of the data. The overall analysis indicates that the machine learning model could play a critical role in predicting microbial water quality of surface waters under complex conditions where the variation of both water composition and weather conditions could deem regression-based modeling less effective.

Microbial diversity and ecological interactions of microorganisms in the mangrove ecosystem: Threats, vulnerability, and adaptations

Mangroves are among the world's most productive ecosystems and a part of the "blue carbon" sink. They act as a connection between the terrestrial and marine ecosystems, providing habitat to countless organisms. Among these, microorganisms (e.g., bacteria, archaea, fungi, phytoplankton, and protozoa) play a crucial role in this ecosystem. Microbial cycling of major nutrients (carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, and sulfur) helps maintain the high productivity of this ecosystem. However, mangrove ecosystems are being disturbed by the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases within the atmosphere. Both the anthropogenic and natural factors contribute to the upsurge of greenhouse gas concentration, resulting in global warming. Changing climate due to global warming and the increasing rate of human interferences such as pollution and deforestation are significant concerns for the mangrove ecosystem. Mangroves are susceptible to such environmental perturbations. Global warming, human interventions, and its consequences are destroying the ecosystem, and the dreadful impacts are experienced worldwide. Therefore, the conservation of mangrove ecosystems is necessary for protecting them from the changing environment-a step toward preserving the globe for better living. This review highlights the importance of mangroves and their microbial components on a global scale and the degree of vulnerability of the ecosystems toward anthropic and climate change factors. The future scenario of the mangrove ecosystem and the resilience of plants and microbes have also been discussed.

Bacterial diversity and the antimicrobial resistome in the southwestern highlands of Saudi Arabia

Soil is a reservoir of microbial diversity and the most supportive habitat for acquiring and transmitting antimicrobial resistance. Resistance transfer usually occurs from animal to soil and vice versa, and it may ultimately appear in clinical pathogens. In this study, the southwestern highlands of Saudi Arabia were studied to assess the bacterial diversity and antimicrobial resistance that could be affected by the continuous development of tourism in the region. Such effects could have a long-lasting impact on the local environment and community. Culture-dependent, quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR), and shotgun sequencing-based metagenomic approaches were used to evaluate the diversity, functional capabilities, and antimicrobial resistance of bacteria isolated from collected soil samples. Bacterial communities in the southwestern highlands were mainly composed of Proteobacteria, Bacteroidetes, and Actinobacteria. A total of 102 antimicrobial resistance genes (ARGs) and variants were identified in the soil microbiota and were mainly associated with multidrug resistance, followed by macrolide, tetracycline, glycopeptide, bacitracin, and beta-lactam antibiotic resistance. The mechanisms of resistance included efflux, antibiotic target alteration, and antibiotic inactivation. qPCR confirmed the detection of 18 clinically important ARGs. In addition, half of the 49 identified isolates were phenotypically resistant to at least one of the 15 antibiotics tested. Overall, ARGs and indicator genes of anthropogenic activities (human-mitochondrial [hmt] gene and integron-integrase [int1]) were found in relatively lower abundance. Along with a high diversity of bacterial communities, variation was observed in the relative abundance of bacterial taxa among sampling sites in the southwestern highlands of Saudi Arabia.

Anaerobic Ciliates as a Model Group for Studying Symbioses in Oxygen-depleted Environments

Anaerobiosis has independently evolved in multiple lineages of ciliates, allowing them to colonize a variety of anoxic and oxygen-depleted habitats. Anaerobic ciliates commonly form symbiotic relationships with various prokaryotes, including methanogenic archaea and members of several bacterial groups. The hypothesized functions of these ecto- and endosymbionts include the symbiont utilizing the ciliate's fermentative end-products to increase host's anaerobic metabolic efficiency, or the symbiont directly providing the host with energy by denitrification or photosynthesis. The host, in turn, may protect the symbiont from competition, the environment, and predation. Despite rapid advances in sampling, molecular, and microscopy methods, as well as the associated broadening of the known diversity of anaerobic ciliates, many aspects of these ciliate symbioses, including host-specificity and co-evolution, remain largely unexplored. Nevertheless, with the number of comparative genomic and transcriptomic analyses targeting anaerobic ciliates and their symbionts on the rise, insights into the nature of these symbioses and the evolution of the ciliate transition to obligate anaerobiosis continue to deepen. This review summarizes the current body of knowledge regarding the complex nature of symbioses in anaerobic ciliates, the diversity of these symbionts, their role in the evolution of ciliate anaerobiosis and their significance in ecosystem-level processes.

Effects of Ocean Warming on the Underexplored Members of the Coral Microbiome

The climate crisis is one of the most significant threats to marine ecosystems. It is leading to severe increases in sea surface temperatures and in the frequency and magnitude of marine heatwaves. These changing conditions are directly impacting coral reef ecosystems, which are among the most biodiverse ecosystems on Earth. Coral-associated symbionts are particularly affected because summer heatwaves cause coral bleaching-the loss of endosymbiotic microalgae (Symbiodiniaceae) from coral tissues, leading to coral starvation and death. Coral-associated Symbiodiniaceae and bacteria have been extensively studied in the context of climate change, especially in terms of community diversity and dynamics. However, data on other microorganisms and their response to climate change are scarce. Here, we review current knowledge on how increasing temperatures affect understudied coral-associated microorganisms such as archaea, fungi, viruses, and protists other than Symbiodiniaceae, as well as microbe-microbe interactions. We show that the coral-microbe symbiosis equilibrium is at risk under current and predicted future climate change and argue that coral reef conservation initiatives should include microbe-focused approaches.

Weakened resilience of benthic microbial communities in the face of climate change

Increased ocean temperature associated with climate change is especially intensified in coastal areas and its influence on microbial communities and biogeochemical cycling is poorly understood. In this study, we sampled a Baltic Sea bay that has undergone 50 years of warmer temperatures similar to RCP5-8.5 predictions due to cooling water release from a nuclear power plant. The system demonstrated reduced oxygen concentrations, decreased anaerobic electron acceptors, and higher rates of sulfate reduction. Chemical analyses, 16S rRNA gene amplicons, and RNA transcripts all supported sediment anaerobic reactions occurring closer to the sediment-water interface. This resulted in higher microbial diversities and raised sulfate reduction and methanogenesis transcripts, also supporting increased production of toxic sulfide and the greenhouse gas methane closer to the sediment surface, with possible release to oxygen deficient waters. RNA transcripts supported prolonged periods of cyanobacterial bloom that may result in increased climate change related coastal anoxia. Finally, while metatranscriptomics suggested increased energy production in the heated bay, a large number of stress transcripts indicated the communities had not adapted to the increased temperature and had weakened resilience. The results point to a potential feedback loop, whereby increased temperatures may amplify negative effects at the base of coastal biochemical cycling.

The effects of phylogeny, habitat and host characteristics on the thermal sensitivity of helminth development

Helminth parasites are part of almost every ecosystem, with more than 300 000 species worldwide. Helminth infection dynamics are expected to be altered by climate change, but predicting future changes is difficult owing to lacking thermal sensitivity data for greater than 99.9% of helminth species. Here, we compiled the largest dataset to date on helminth temperature sensitivities and used the Metabolic Theory of Ecology to estimate activation energies (AEs) for parasite developmental rates. The median AE for 129 thermal performance curves was 0.67, similar to non-parasitic animals. Although exceptions existed, related species tended to have similar thermal sensitivities, suggesting some helminth taxa are inherently more affected by rising temperatures than others. Developmental rates were more temperature-sensitive for species from colder habitats than those from warmer habitats, and more temperature sensitive for species in terrestrial than aquatic habitats. AEs did not depend on whether helminth life stages were free-living or within hosts, whether the species infected plants or animals, or whether the species had an endotherm host in its life cycle. The phylogenetic conservatism of AE may facilitate predicting how temperature change affects the development of helminth species for which empirical data are lacking or difficult to obtain.

Thermodynamic constraints on the assembly and diversity of microbial ecosystems are different near to and far from equilibrium

Non-equilibrium thermodynamics has long been an area of substantial interest to ecologists because most fundamental biological processes, such as protein synthesis and respiration, are inherently energy-consuming. However, most of this interest has focused on developing coarse ecosystem-level maximisation principles, providing little insight into underlying mechanisms that lead to such emergent constraints. Microbial communities are a natural system to decipher this mechanistic basis because their interactions in the form of substrate consumption, metabolite production, and cross-feeding can be described explicitly in thermodynamic terms. Previous work has considered how thermodynamic constraints impact competition between pairs of species, but restrained from analysing how this manifests in complex dynamical systems. To address this gap, we develop a thermodynamic microbial community model with fully reversible reaction kinetics, which allows direct consideration of free-energy dissipation. This also allows species to interact via products rather than just substrates, increasing the dynamical complexity, and allowing a more nuanced classification of interaction types to emerge. Using this model, we find that community diversity increases with substrate lability, because greater free-energy availability allows for faster generation of niches. Thus, more niches are generated in the time frame of community establishment, leading to higher final species diversity. We also find that allowing species to make use of near-to-equilibrium reactions increases diversity in a low free-energy regime. In such a regime, two new thermodynamic interaction types that we identify here reach comparable strengths to the conventional (competition and facilitation) types, emphasising the key role that thermodynamics plays in community dynamics. Our results suggest that accounting for realistic thermodynamic constraints is vital for understanding the dynamics of real-world microbial communities.

There is a growing interest in microbial communities due to their important role in biogeochemical cycling as well as plant and animal health. Although our understanding of thermodynamic constraints on individual cells is rapidly improving, the impact of these constraints on complex microbial communities remains largely unexplored theoretically and empirically. Here, we develop a new microbial community model which allows thermodynamic efficiency and entropy production to be calculated directly. We find that availability of substrates with greater free-energy allows for a faster rate of niche generation, leading to higher final species diversity. We also show that when the free-energy availability is low, species with reactions close to thermodynamic equilibrium are favoured, leading to more diverse and efficient communities. In addition to the conventional interaction types (competition and facilitation), our model reveals the existence of two novel interaction types mediated by products rather than substrates. Though the conventional interactions are generally the strongest, the novel interaction types are significant when free-energy availability is low. Our results suggest that non-equilibrium thermodynamics need to be considered when studying microbial community dynamics.

Linking species traits and demography to explain complex temperature responses across levels of organization

Microbial communities regulate ecosystem responses to climate change. However, predicting these responses is challenging because of complex interactions among processes at multiple levels of organization. Organismal traits that determine individual performance and ecological interactions are essential for scaling up environmental responses from individuals to ecosystems. We combine protist microcosm experiments and mathematical models to show that key traits-cell size, shape, and contents-each explain different aspects of species' demographic responses to changes in temperature. These differences in species' temperature responses have complex cascading effects across levels of organization-causing nonlinear shifts in total community respiration rates across temperatures via coordinated changes in community composition, equilibrium densities, and community-mean species mass in experimental protist communities that tightly match theoretical predictions. Our results suggest that traits explain variation in population growth, and together, these two factors scale up to influence community- and ecosystem-level processes across temperatures. Connecting the multilevel microbial processes that ultimately influence climate in this way will help refine predictions about complex ecosystem-climate feedbacks and the pace of climate change itself.

Warming-driven migration of core microbiota indicates soil property changes at continental scale

Terrestrial species are predicted to migrate northward under global warming conditions, yet little is known about the direction and magnitude of change in microbial distribution patterns. In this continental-scale study with more than 1600 forest soil samples, we verify the existence of core microbiota and lump them into a manageable number of eco-clusters based on microbial habitat preferences. By projecting the abundance differences of eco-clusters between future and current climatic conditions, we observed the potential warming-driven migration of the core microbiota under warming, partially verified by a field warming experiment at Southwest China. Specifically, the species that favor low pH are potentially expanding and moving northward to medium-latitudes (25°-45°N), potentially implying that warm temperate forest would be under threat of soil acidification with warming. The eco-cluster of high-pH with high-annual mean temperature (AMT) experienced significant abundance increases at middle- (35°-45°N) to high-latitudes (> 45°N), especially under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, likely resulting in northward expansion. Furthermore, the eco-cluster that favors low-soil organic carbon (SOC) was projected to increase under warming scenarios at low-latitudes (< 25°N), potentially an indicator of SOC storage accumulation in warmer areas. Meanwhile, at high-latitudes (> 45°N) the changes in relative abundance of this eco-cluster is inversely related with the temperature variation trends, suggesting microbes-mediated soil organic carbon changes are more responsive to temperature variation in colder areas. These results have vital implications for the migration direction of microbial communities and its potential ecological consequences in future warming scenarios.

Systematic variation in the temperature dependence of bacterial carbon use efficiency

Carbon use efficiency (CUE) is a key characteristic of microbial physiology and underlies community-level responses to changing environments. Yet, we currently lack general empirical insights into variation in microbial CUE at the level of individual taxa. Here, through experiments with 29 strains of environmentally isolated bacteria, we find that bacterial CUE typically responds either positively to temperature, or has no discernible response, within biologically meaningful temperature ranges. Using a global data synthesis, we show that these results are generalisable across most culturable groups of bacteria. This variation in the thermal responses of bacterial CUE is taxonomically structured, and stems from the fact that relative to respiration rates, bacterial population growth rates typically respond more strongly to temperature, and are also subject to weaker evolutionary constraints. Our results provide new insights into microbial physiology, and a basis for more accurately modelling the effects of thermal fluctuations on complex microbial communities.

Seasonal changes dominate long-term variability of the urban air microbiome across space and time

Compared to soil or aquatic ecosystems, the atmosphere is still an underexplored environment for microbial diversity. In this study, we surveyed the composition, variability and sources of microbes (bacteria and fungi) in the near surface atmosphere of a highly populated area, spanning ~ 4,000 Km² around the city center of Madrid (Spain), in different seasonal periods along two years. We found a core of abundant bacterial genera robust across space and time, most of soil origin, while fungi were more sensitive to environmental conditions. Microbial communities showed clear seasonal patterns driven by variability of environmental factors, mainly temperature and accumulated rain, while local sources played a minor role. We also identified taxa in both groups characteristic of seasonal periods, but not of specific sampling sites or plant coverage. The present study suggests that the near surface atmosphere of urban environments contains an ecosystem stable across relatively large spatial and temporal scales, with a rather homogenous composition, modulated by climatic variations. As such, it contributes to our understanding of the long-term changes associated to the human exposome in the air of highly populated areas.

The effect of resource limitation on the temperature dependence of mosquito population fitness

Laboratory-derived temperature dependencies of life-history traits are increasingly being used to make mechanistic predictions for how climatic warming will affect vector-borne disease dynamics, partially by affecting abundance dynamics of the vector population. These temperature-trait relationships are typically estimated from juvenile populations reared on optimal resource supply, even though natural populations of vectors are expected to experience variation in resource supply, including intermittent resource limitation. Using laboratory experiments on the mosquito Aedes aegypti, a principal arbovirus vector, combined with stage-structured population modelling, we show that low-resource supply in the juvenile life stages significantly depresses the vector's maximal population growth rate across the entire temperature range (22-32°C) and causes it to peak at a lower temperature than at high-resource supply. This effect is primarily driven by an increase in juvenile mortality and development time, combined with a decrease in adult size with temperature at low-resource supply. Our study suggests that most projections of temperature-dependent vector abundance and disease transmission are likely to be biased because they are based on traits measured under optimal resource supply. Our results provide compelling evidence for future studies to consider resource supply when predicting the effects of climate and habitat change on vector-borne disease transmission, disease vectors and other arthropods.

The temperature sensitivity of soil: microbial biodiversity, growth, and carbon mineralization

Microorganisms drive soil carbon mineralization and changes in their activity with increased temperature could feedback to climate change. Variation in microbial biodiversity and the temperature sensitivities (Q₁₀) of individual taxa may explain differences in the Q₁₀ of soil respiration, a possibility not previously examined due to methodological limitations. Here, we show phylogenetic and taxonomic variation in the Q₁₀ of growth (5-35 °C) among soil bacteria from four sites, one from each of Arctic, boreal, temperate, and tropical biomes. Differences in the temperature sensitivities of taxa and the taxonomic composition of communities determined community-assembled bacterial growth Q₁₀, which was strongly predictive of soil respiration Q₁₀ within and across biomes. Our results suggest community-assembled traits of microbial taxa may enable enhanced prediction of carbon cycling feedbacks to climate change in ecosystems across the globe.

Diversity of Dominant Soil Bacteria Increases with Warming Velocity at the Global Scale

Understanding global soil bacterial diversity is important because of its role in maintaining a healthy global ecosystem. Given the effects of environmental changes (e.g., warming and human impact) on the diversity of animals and plants, effects on soil bacterial diversity are expected; however, they have been poorly evaluated at the global scale to date. Thus, in this study, we focused on the dominant soil bacteria, which are likely critical drivers of key soil processes worldwide, and investigated the effects of warming velocity and human activities on their diversity. Using a global dataset of bacteria, we performed spatial analysis to evaluate the effects of warming velocity and human activities, while statistically controlling for the potentially confounding effects of current climate and geographic parameters with global climate and geographic data. We demonstrated that the diversity of the dominant soil bacteria was influenced globally, not only by the aridity index (dryness) and pH but also by warming velocity from the Last Glacial Maximum (21,000 years ago) to the present, showing significant increases. The increase in bacterial diversity with warming velocity was particularly significant in forests and grasslands. An effect of human activity was also observed, but it was secondary to warming velocity. These findings provide robust evidence and advance our understanding of the effects of environmental changes (particularly global warming) on soil bacterial diversity at the global scale.

Developing a statistical-weighted index of biotic integrity for large-river ecological evaluations

The efficiency, accuracy and universality of ecological assessment methods comprise an important foundation for comprehensive assessment and restoration of large river ecological health at the watershed scale. New evaluation metrics and methods are urgently needed to be developed to adapt the characteristics of large rivers, including geographical differences in surface runoff, regional ecological complexity, and seasonal changes. In this study, a bacteria-weighted index of biotic integrity was developed to assess the ecological health of large rivers (lrBW-IBI) based on compositional and functional characteristics of sediment bacterial communities from 33 sections of the lower mainstream of Yangtze River. Five key metrics were determined by range, responsiveness, and redundancy tests. Principal component analysis (PCA), entropy method, criteria importance through intercriteria correlation and random forest were applied to calculate weighted coefficients of key metrics. The optimal lrBW-IBI was observed through the sum of PCA weighted-metrics: the relative abundance of Latescibacteria (0.234), Gemmatimonadaceae (0.149), Nitrospira spp. (0.234), Rhizobiales (0.228), and nitrogenase NifH (0.156). According to PCA based lrBW-IBI, 12.12%, 24.24%, 39.39%, and 24.24% of river sections were labeled excellent, good, moderate, and relatively poor, respectively. The ecological status of the lower mainstream of the Yangtze River did not change significantly across seasons but declined gradually from upstream to downstream. This study provides a new assessment tool for the ecological health of large rivers and highlights the importance of microbial ecological index in river ecology.

The thermal response of soil microbial methanogenesis decreases in magnitude with changing temperature

Microbial methanogenesis in anaerobic soils contributes greatly to global methane (CH₄) release, and understanding its response to temperature is fundamental to predicting the feedback between this potent greenhouse gas and climate change. A compensatory thermal response in microbial activity over time can reduce the response of respiratory carbon (C) release to temperature change, as shown for carbon dioxide (CO₂) in aerobic soils. However, whether microbial methanogenesis also shows a compensatory response to temperature change remains unknown. Here, we used anaerobic wetland soils from the Greater Khingan Range and the Tibetan Plateau to investigate how 160 days of experimental warming (+4°C) and cooling (−4°C) affect the thermal response of microbial CH₄ respiration and whether these responses correspond to changes in microbial community dynamics. The mass-specific CH₄ respiration rates of methanogens decreased with warming and increased with cooling, suggesting that microbial methanogenesis exhibited compensatory responses to temperature changes. Furthermore, changes in the species composition of methanogenic community under warming and cooling largely explained the compensatory response in the soils. The stimulatory effect of climate warming on soil microbe-driven CH₄ emissions may thus be smaller than that currently predicted, with important consequences for atmospheric CH₄ concentrations.

Soil microbes produce more methane as temperatures warm, but it is unclear if they acclimate to heat, or keep producing more of the greenhouse gas. Here the authors use artificial wetland warming experiments to show that after initial spikes in methane emissions after warming, emissions level out over time.

Adaptive evolution shapes the present-day distribution of the thermal sensitivity of population growth rate

Developing a thorough understanding of how ectotherm physiology adapts to different thermal environments is of crucial importance, especially in the face of global climate change. A key aspect of an organism's thermal performance curve (TPC)-the relationship between fitness-related trait performance and temperature-is its thermal sensitivity, i.e., the rate at which trait values increase with temperature within its typically experienced thermal range. For a given trait, the distribution of thermal sensitivities across species, often quantified as "activation energy" values, is typically right-skewed. Currently, the mechanisms that generate this distribution are unclear, with considerable debate about the role of thermodynamic constraints versus adaptive evolution. Here, using a phylogenetic comparative approach, we study the evolution of the thermal sensitivity of population growth rate across phytoplankton (Cyanobacteria and eukaryotic microalgae) and prokaryotes (bacteria and archaea), 2 microbial groups that play a major role in the global carbon cycle. We find that thermal sensitivity across these groups is moderately phylogenetically heritable, and that its distribution is shaped by repeated evolutionary convergence throughout its parameter space. More precisely, we detect bursts of adaptive evolution in thermal sensitivity, increasing the amount of overlap among its distributions in different clades. We obtain qualitatively similar results from evolutionary analyses of the thermal sensitivities of 2 physiological rates underlying growth rate: net photosynthesis and respiration of plants. Furthermore, we find that these episodes of evolutionary convergence are consistent with 2 opposing forces: decrease in thermal sensitivity due to environmental fluctuations and increase due to adaptation to stable environments. Overall, our results indicate that adaptation can lead to large and relatively rapid shifts in thermal sensitivity, especially in microbes for which rapid evolution can occur at short timescales. Thus, more attention needs to be paid to elucidating the implications of rapid evolution in organismal thermal sensitivity for ecosystem functioning.

Macroecological laws describe variation and diversity in microbial communities

How the coexistence of many species is maintained is a fundamental and unresolved question in ecology. Coexistence is a puzzle because we lack a mechanistic understanding of the variation in species presence and abundance. Whether variation in ecological communities is driven by deterministic or random processes is one of the most controversial issues in ecology. Here, I study the variation of species presence and abundance in microbial communities from a macroecological standpoint. I identify three macroecological laws that quantitatively characterize the fluctuation of species abundance across communities and over time. Using these three laws, one can predict species' presence and absence, diversity, and commonly studied macroecological patterns. I show that a mathematical model based on environmental stochasticity, the stochastic logistic model, quantitatively predicts the three macroecological laws, as well as non-stationary properties of community dynamics.

Thermal bottlenecks in the life cycle define climate vulnerability of fish

Species' vulnerability to climate change depends on the most temperature-sensitive life stages, but for major animal groups such as fish, life cycle bottlenecks are often not clearly defined. We used observational, experimental, and phylogenetic data to assess stage-specific thermal tolerance metrics for 694 marine and freshwater fish species from all climate zones. Our analysis shows that spawning adults and embryos consistently have narrower tolerance ranges than larvae and nonreproductive adults and are most vulnerable to climate warming. The sequence of stage-specific thermal tolerance corresponds with the oxygen-limitation hypothesis, suggesting a mechanistic link between ontogenetic changes in cardiorespiratory (aerobic) capacity and tolerance to temperature extremes. A logarithmic inverse correlation between the temperature dependence of physiological rates (development and oxygen consumption) and thermal tolerance range is proposed to reflect a fundamental, energetic trade-off in thermal adaptation. Scenario-based climate projections considering the most critical life stages (spawners and embryos) clearly identify the temperature requirements for reproduction as a critical bottleneck in the life cycle of fish. By 2100, depending on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenario followed, the percentages of species potentially affected by water temperatures exceeding their tolerance limit for reproduction range from ~10% (SSP 1-1.9) to ~60% (SSP 5-8.5). Efforts to meet ambitious climate targets (SSP 1-1.9) could therefore benefit many fish species and people who depend on healthy fish stocks.