Meta-analysis of multidecadal biodiversity trends in Europe

Towards a toolkit for global insect biodiversity monitoring

Insects are the most diverse group of animals on Earth, yet our knowledge of their diversity, ecology and population trends remains abysmally poor. Four major technological approaches are coming to fruition for use in insect monitoring and ecological research-molecular methods, computer vision, autonomous acoustic monitoring and radar-based remote sensing-each of which has seen major advances over the past years. Together, they have the potential to revolutionize insect ecology, and to make all-taxa, fine-grained insect monitoring feasible across the globe. So far, advances within and among technologies have largely taken place in isolation, and parallel efforts among projects have led to redundancy and a methodological sprawl; yet, given the commonalities in their goals and approaches, increased collaboration among projects and integration across technologies could provide unprecedented improvements in taxonomic and spatio-temporal resolution and coverage. This theme issue showcases recent developments and state-of-the-art applications of these technologies, and outlines the way forward regarding data processing, cost-effectiveness, meaningful trend analysis, technological integration and open data requirements. Together, these papers set the stage for the future of automated insect monitoring. This article is part of the theme issue 'Towards a toolkit for global insect biodiversity monitoring'.

The coevolutionary consequences of biodiversity change

Coevolutionary selection is a powerful process shaping species interactions and biodiversity. Anthropogenic global environmental change is reshaping planetary biodiversity, including by altering the structure and intensity of interspecific interactions. However, remarkably little is understood of how coevolutionary selection is changing in the process. Here, we outline three interrelated pathways - change in evolutionary potential, change in community composition, and shifts in interaction trait distributions - that are expected to redirect coevolutionary selection under biodiversity change. Assessing how both ecological and evolutionary rules governing species interactions are disrupted under anthropogenic global change is of paramount importance to understand the past, present, and future of Earth's biodiversity.

Disproportionate declines of formerly abundant species underlie insect loss

Studies have reported widespread declines in terrestrial insect abundances in recent years1-4, but trends in other biodiversity metrics are less clear-cut5-7. Here we examined long-term trends in 923 terrestrial insect assemblages monitored in 106 studies, and found concomitant declines in abundance and species richness. For studies that were resolved to species level (551 sites in 57 studies), we observed a decline in the number of initially abundant species through time, but not in the number of very rare species. At the population level, we found that species that were most abundant at the start of the time series showed the strongest average declines (corrected for regression-to-the-mean effects). Rarer species were, on average, also declining, but these were offset by increases of other species. Our results suggest that the observed decreases in total insect abundance2 can mostly be explained by widespread declines of formerly abundant species. This counters the common narrative that biodiversity loss is mostly characterized by declines of rare species8,9. Although our results suggest that fundamental changes are occurring in insect assemblages, it is important to recognize that they represent only trends from those locations for which sufficient long-term data are available. Nevertheless, given the importance of abundant species in ecosystems10, their general declines are likely to have broad repercussions for food webs and ecosystem functioning.

Weather explains the decline and rise of insect biomass over 34 years

Insects have a pivotal role in ecosystem function, thus the decline of more than 75% in insect biomass in protected areas over recent decades in Central Europe1 and elsewhere2,3 has alarmed the public, pushed decision-makers4 and stimulated research on insect population trends. However, the drivers of this decline are still not well understood. Here, we reanalysed 27 years of insect biomass data from Hallmann et al.1, using sample-specific information on weather conditions during sampling and weather anomalies during the insect life cycle. This model explained variation in temporal decline in insect biomass, including an observed increase in biomass in recent years, solely on the basis of these weather variables. Our finding that terrestrial insect biomass is largely driven by complex weather conditions challenges previous assumptions that climate change is more critical in the tropics5,6 or that negative consequences in the temperate zone might only occur in the future7. Despite the recent observed increase in biomass, new combinations of unfavourable multi-annual weather conditions might be expected to further threaten insect populations under continuing climate change. Our findings also highlight the need for more climate change research on physiological mechanisms affected by annual weather conditions and anomalies.

Revealing uncertainty in the status of biodiversity change

Biodiversity faces unprecedented threats from rapid global change1. Signals of biodiversity change come from time-series abundance datasets for thousands of species over large geographic and temporal scales. Analyses of these biodiversity datasets have pointed to varied trends in abundance, including increases and decreases. However, these analyses have not fully accounted for spatial, temporal and phylogenetic structures in the data. Here, using a new statistical framework, we show across ten high-profile biodiversity datasets2-11 that increases and decreases under existing approaches vanish once spatial, temporal and phylogenetic structures are accounted for. This is a consequence of existing approaches severely underestimating trend uncertainty and sometimes misestimating the trend direction. Under our revised average abundance trends that appropriately recognize uncertainty, we failed to observe a single increasing or decreasing trend at 95% credible intervals in our ten datasets. This emphasizes how little is known about biodiversity change across vast spatial and taxonomic scales. Despite this uncertainty at vast scales, we reveal improved local-scale prediction accuracy by accounting for spatial, temporal and phylogenetic structures. Improved prediction offers hope of estimating biodiversity change at policy-relevant scales, guiding adaptive conservation responses.

Multi-decadal improvements in the ecological quality of European rivers are not consistently reflected in biodiversity metrics

Humans impact terrestrial, marine and freshwater ecosystems, yet many broad-scale studies have found no systematic, negative biodiversity changes (for example, decreasing abundance or taxon richness). Here we show that mixed biodiversity responses may arise because community metrics show variable responses to anthropogenic impacts across broad spatial scales. We first quantified temporal trends in anthropogenic impacts for 1,365 riverine invertebrate communities from 23 European countries, based on similarity to least-impacted reference communities. Reference comparisons provide necessary, but often missing, baselines for evaluating whether communities are negatively impacted or have improved (less or more similar, respectively). We then determined whether changing impacts were consistently reflected in metrics of community abundance, taxon richness, evenness and composition. Invertebrate communities improved, that is, became more similar to reference conditions, from 1992 until the 2010s, after which improvements plateaued. Improvements were generally reflected by higher taxon richness, providing evidence that certain community metrics can broadly indicate anthropogenic impacts. However, richness responses were highly variable among sites, and we found no consistent responses in community abundance, evenness or composition. These findings suggest that, without sufficient data and careful metric selection, many common community metrics cannot reliably reflect anthropogenic impacts, helping explain the prevalence of mixed biodiversity trends.

Synthesis reveals approximately balanced biotic differentiation and homogenization

It is commonly thought that the biodiversity crisis includes widespread declines in the spatial variation of species composition, called biotic homogenization. Using a typology relating homogenization and differentiation to local and regional diversity changes, we synthesize patterns across 461 metacommunities surveyed for 10 to 91 years, and 64 species checklists (13 to 500+ years). Across all datasets, we found that no change was the most common outcome, but with many instances of homogenization and differentiation. A weak homogenizing trend of a 0.3% increase in species shared among communities/year on average was driven by increased numbers of widespread (high occupancy) species and strongly associated with checklist data that have longer durations and large spatial scales. At smaller spatial and temporal scales, we show that homogenization and differentiation can be driven by changes in the number and spatial distributions of both rare and common species. The multiscale perspective introduced here can help identify scale-dependent drivers underpinning biotic differentiation and homogenization.

Recent range shifts of moths, butterflies, and birds are driven by the breadth of their climatic niche

Species are altering their ranges as a response to climate change, but the magnitude and direction of observed range shifts vary considerably among species. The ability to persist in current areas and colonize new areas plays a crucial role in determining which species will thrive and which decline as climate change progresses. Several studies have sought to identify characteristics, such as morphological and life-history traits, that could explain differences in the capability of species to shift their ranges together with a changing climate. These characteristics have explained variation in range shifts only sporadically, thus offering an uncertain tool for discerning responses among species. As long-term selection to past climates have shaped species' tolerances, metrics describing species' contemporary climatic niches may provide an alternative means for understanding responses to on-going climate change. Species that occur in a broader range of climatic conditions may hold greater tolerance to climatic variability and could therefore more readily maintain their historical ranges, while species with more narrow tolerances may only persist if they are able to shift in space to track their climatic niche. Here, we provide a first-filter test of the effect of climatic niche dimensions on shifts in the leading range edges in three relatively well-dispersing species groups. Based on the realized changes in the northern range edges of 383 moth, butterfly, and bird species across a boreal 1,100 km latitudinal gradient over c. 20 years, we show that while most morphological or life-history traits were not strongly connected with range shifts, moths and birds occupying a narrower thermal niche and butterflies occupying a broader moisture niche across their European distribution show stronger shifts towards the north. Our results indicate that the climatic niche may be important for predicting responses under climate change and as such warrants further investigation of potential mechanistic underpinnings.

A synthesis of anthropogenic stress effects on emergence-mediated aquatic-terrestrial linkages and riparian food webs

Anthropogenic stress alters the linkage between aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems in various ways. Here, we review the contemporary literature on how alterations in aquatic systems through environmental pollution, invasive species and hydromorphological changes carry-over to terrestrial ecosystems and the food webs therein. We consider both the aquatic insect emergence and flooding as pathways through which stressors can propagate from the aquatic to the terrestrial system. We specifically synthesize and contextualize results on the roles of pollutants in the emergence pathway and their top-down consequences. Our review revealed that the emergence and flooding pathway are only considered in isolation and that the overall effects of invasive species or pollutants on food webs at the water-land interface require further attention. While very few recent studies looked at invasive species, a larger number of studies focused on metal transfer compared to pesticides, pharmaceuticals or PCBs, and multiple stress studies up to now left aquatic-terrestrial linkages unconsidered. Recent research on pollutants and emergence used aquatic-terrestrial mesocosms to elucidate the effects of aquatic stressors such as the mosquito control agent Bti, metals or pesticides to understand the effects on riparian spiders. Quality parameters, such as the structural and functional composition of emergent insect communities, the fatty acid profiles, yet also the composition of pollutants transferred to land prove to be important for the effects on riparian spiders. Process-based models including quality of emergence are useful to predict the resulting top-down directed food web effects in the terrestrial recipient ecosystem. In conclusion, we present and recommend a combination of empirical and modelling approaches in order to understand the complexity of aquatic-terrestrial stressor propagation and its spatial and temporal variation.

Scratching the tip of the iceberg: integrative taxonomy reveals 30 new species records of Microgastrinae (Braconidae) parasitoid wasps for Germany, including new Holarctic distributions

Substantial parts of the European and German insect fauna still remain largely unexplored, the so-called "dark taxa". In particular, midges (Diptera) and parasitoid wasps (Hymenoptera) are abundant and species-rich throughout Europe, yet are often neglected in biodiversity research. One such dark taxon is Microgastrinae wasps (Hymenoptera: Braconidae), a group of parasitoids of lepidopteran caterpillars with 252 species reported in Germany so far. As part of the German Barcode of Life Project GBOL III: Dark Taxa, reverse DNA barcoding and integrative taxonomic approaches were used to shed some light on the German Fauna of Microgastrinae wasps. In our workflow, DNA barcoding was used for molecular clustering of our specimens in a first step, morphological examination of the voucher specimens in a second step, and host data compared in a third step. Here, 30 species are reported for the first time in Germany, adding more than 10% to the known German fauna. Information for four species is provided in a new Holarctic context, reporting them for the Nearctic or, respectively, Palaearctic region, and 26 additional country records are added from sequenced material available in the collections accessible to us. Molecular clusters that show signs of discrepancies are discussed. Results show that we are just scratching the tip of the iceberg of the unexplored Microgastrinae diversity in Germany.

Earlier and more uniform spring green-up linked to lower insect richness and biomass in temperate forests

Urbanization and agricultural intensification are considered the main causes of recent insect decline in temperate Europe, while direct climate warming effects are still ambiguous. Nonetheless, higher temperatures advance spring leaf emergence, which in turn may directly or indirectly affect insects. We therefore investigated how Sentinel-2-derived start of season (SOS) and its spatial variability (SV-SOS) are affected by spring temperature and whether these green-up variables can explain insect biomass and richness across a climate and land-use gradient in southern Germany. We found that the effects of both spring green-up variables on insect biomass and richness differed between land-use types, but were strongest in forests. Here, insect richness and biomass were higher with later green-up (SOS) and higher SV-SOS. In turn, higher spring temperatures advanced SOS, while SV-SOS was lower at warmer sites. We conclude that with a warming climate, insect biomass and richness in forests may be affected negatively due to earlier and more uniform green-up. Promising adaptation strategies should therefore focus on spatial variability in green-up in forests, thus plant species and structural diversity.

The challenge of managing threatened invasive species at a continental scale

The European Union's (EU) environmental legislation establishes common measures to prevent the entry and spread of invasive non-native species and to minimize their impacts. However, species that are native to at least one member state but non-native and potentially invasive in others (NPIS) are in limbo because they are neither legally regulated at the EU level nor in most member states. We used the Communication and Information Resource Centre for Administrations, Businesses and Citizens (CIRCABC) raw data on NPIS (317 taxa) to analyze their distribution across the EU and identify which biogeographical regions are the main sources of invasions. We additionally evaluated the conservation challenge posed by NPIS that are threatened within their native ranges. We performed a pairwise analysis summarizing the number of species that are native to a given member state but non-native to another and vice versa. Although distribution patterns of NPIS varied across taxa groups, overall, southern and central EU countries were both donors and recipients of NPIS. Eastern countries were mainly a source, and western and northern countries mostly received NPIS. Around 27% of NPIS were threatened in some of their EU native ranges, which is a challenge for conservation and management because some of them have serious negative effects on European biodiversity, but hitherto remain outside the scope of the EU regulation of invasive non-native species. This highlights an unresolved paradox because efforts to manage species as invasive conflict with efforts to protect them as threatened within the same territory.

Can we meaningfully estimate the impacts of climate on zooplankton biodiversity? A review on uses and limitations of marine time series

Climate events compromise ecosystems functioning and services. Marine zooplankton play a key role linking primary producers and higher consumers, in the carbon export to deeper regions, and respond quickly to environmental change. We conducted a systematic review to assess the effects of climate on marine zooplankton diversity. We describe the major findings, uses and limitations raised in the literature from worldwide time series ≥5 years. Thirty-five studies were included and only 6 presented extractable data (i.e., those that could be extracted from images) for the most studied group (i.e., copepods). Responses to climate were conflicting, and studies were mostly restricted to the global north, applied richness, alpha- and beta-diversity equally, and had a large number of unresolved taxonomic identification. Standardized open long-term data would meaningfully help unveiling assemblage reorganization and allow meta-analyses to improve our understanding of the effects of climate change and variability on zooplankton biodiversity.

The recovery of European freshwater biodiversity has come to a halt

Owing to a long history of anthropogenic pressures, freshwater ecosystems are among the most vulnerable to biodiversity loss1. Mitigation measures, including wastewater treatment and hydromorphological restoration, have aimed to improve environmental quality and foster the recovery of freshwater biodiversity2. Here, using 1,816 time series of freshwater invertebrate communities collected across 22 European countries between 1968 and 2020, we quantified temporal trends in taxonomic and functional diversity and their responses to environmental pressures and gradients. We observed overall increases in taxon richness (0.73% per year), functional richness (2.4% per year) and abundance (1.17% per year). However, these increases primarily occurred before the 2010s, and have since plateaued. Freshwater communities downstream of dams, urban areas and cropland were less likely to experience recovery. Communities at sites with faster rates of warming had fewer gains in taxon richness, functional richness and abundance. Although biodiversity gains in the 1990s and 2000s probably reflect the effectiveness of water-quality improvements and restoration projects, the decelerating trajectory in the 2010s suggests that the current measures offer diminishing returns. Given new and persistent pressures on freshwater ecosystems, including emerging pollutants, climate change and the spread of invasive species, we call for additional mitigation to revive the recovery of freshwater biodiversity.

Looking back on biodiversity change: lessons for the road ahead

Estimating biodiversity change across the planet in the context of widespread human modification is a critical challenge. Here, we review how biodiversity has changed in recent decades across scales and taxonomic groups, focusing on four diversity metrics: species richness, temporal turnover, spatial beta-diversity and abundance. At local scales, change across all metrics includes many examples of both increases and declines and tends to be centred around zero, but with higher prevalence of declining trends in beta-diversity (increasing similarity in composition across space or biotic homogenization) and abundance. The exception to this pattern is temporal turnover, with changes in species composition through time observed in most local assemblages. Less is known about change at regional scales, although several studies suggest that increases in richness are more prevalent than declines. Change at the global scale is the hardest to estimate accurately, but most studies suggest extinction rates are probably outpacing speciation rates, although both are elevated. Recognizing this variability is essential to accurately portray how biodiversity change is unfolding, and highlights how much remains unknown about the magnitude and direction of multiple biodiversity metrics at different scales. Reducing these blind spots is essential to allow appropriate management actions to be deployed. This article is part of the theme issue 'Detecting and attributing the causes of biodiversity change: needs, gaps and solutions'.

Humidity - The overlooked variable in the thermal biology of mosquito-borne disease

Vector-borne diseases cause significant financial and human loss, with billions of dollars spent on control. Arthropod vectors experience a complex suite of environmental factors that affect fitness, population growth and species interactions across multiple spatial and temporal scales. Temperature and water availability are two of the most important abiotic variables influencing their distributions and abundances. While extensive research on temperature exists, the influence of humidity on vector and pathogen parameters affecting disease dynamics are less understood. Humidity is often underemphasized, and when considered, is often treated as independent of temperature even though desiccation likely contributes to declines in trait performance at warmer temperatures. This Perspectives explores how humidity shapes the thermal performance of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission. We summarize what is known about its effects and propose a conceptual model for how temperature and humidity interact to shape the range of temperatures across which mosquitoes persist and achieve high transmission potential. We discuss how failing to account for these interactions hinders efforts to forecast transmission dynamics and respond to epidemics of mosquito-borne infections. We outline future research areas that will ground the effects of humidity on the thermal biology of pathogen transmission in a theoretical and empirical framework to improve spatial and temporal prediction of vector-borne pathogen transmission.

Extreme freshwater discharge events exacerbated by climate change influence the structure and functional response of the chironomid community in a biodiversity hotspot

Global climate change is expected to exacerbate extreme discharge events in freshwater ecosystems as a consequence of changes in precipitation volume and snow cover duration. Chironomid midges were used as a model organism in this study because of their small size and short life cycles, which enable fast colonization of new habitats and great resilience. This resilience is often expressed in easy recolonization after an extreme event. Chironomid samples together with physico-chemical water measurements were collected for 14 years, between 2007 and 2020, in a karst tufa barrier that is part of the Plitvice Lakes National Park in Croatia. More than 13,000 individuals belonging to >90 taxa were collected. Mean annual water temperature increased by 0.1 °C during this period. Multiple change-point analysis revealed three main periods by discharge patterns: the first one from January 2007 to June 2010, the second from July 2010 to March 2013, characterised by extreme low discharge, and the third from April 2013 to December 2020, characterised by an increase in extreme peak discharge values. Based on multilevel pattern analysis, indicator species of the first and the third discharge period were detected. The ecological preferences of these species indicate an environmental change related to the changes in discharge. Along with species composition, functional composition has changed with the abundance of passive filtrators, shredders and predators increasing over time. Species richness and abundance did not change over the period of observation, thus emphasizing the importance of species-level identification in detecting the earliest community response to change that would otherwise be overlooked.

Evidence of biological recovery from gross pollution in English and Welsh rivers over three decades

Uncertainty around the changing ecological status of European rivers reflects an evolving array of anthropogenic stressors, including climate change. Although previous studies have revealed some recovery from historical pollution in the 1990s and early-2000s, there are contrasting trends among pollutants across Europe and recovery may have stalled or been reversed. To provide more contemporary evidence on trends and status, here we investigate changes in English and Welsh river macroinvertebrate communities over almost 30 years (1991-2019) using a network of nearly 4000 survey locations. Analysis comprised: i) trends in taxonomic and functional richness, community composition and ecological traits, ii) gains, losses and turnover of taxa, and the overall homogeneity of macroinvertebrate communities nationally, and iii) an exploration of how temporal trends varied with catchment characteristics. Taxonomic richness increased, primarily in the 1990s, whilst a shift towards pollution-sensitive taxa continued throughout the study period, accompanied by a growing prevalence in traits such as preferences for fast-flowing conditions, coarser substrata, and 'shredding' or 'scraping' feeding strategies. Changes consistent with improvement occurred in both urbanised and agricultural catchments, but were more pronounced in urban rivers as they gained pollution sensitive taxa that were otherwise more prevalent in rural rivers. Overall, these results indicate continuing biological recovery from organic pollution, consistent with national scale trends in water quality. Results reemphasise the importance of looking at multiple facets of diversity, with periods of near-constant richness disguising changes in taxonomic and functional composition. Whilst this national-scale picture is broadly positive, we highlight the need to investigate more local variations or pollutants that depart from this aggregate picture.

Long-term trends and drivers of biological invasion in Central European streams

Rates of biological invasion continue to accelerate and threaten the structure and function of ecosystems worldwide. High habitat connectivity, multiple pathways, and inadequate monitoring have rendered aquatic ecosystems vulnerable to species introductions. Past riverine invasion dynamics were largely restricted to large rivers, leaving out smaller rivers that commonly harbour high freshwater biodiversity. Moreover, biodiversity time series have rarely been used to investigate invasions across larger spatial-temporal scales, limiting our understanding of aquatic invasion dynamics. Here, we used 6067 benthic invertebrate samples from streams and small rivers from the EU Water Framework Directive monitoring program collected across Central Europe between 2000 and 2018 to assess temporal changes to benthic invertebrate communities as well as non-native species. We assessed invasion rates according to temperature, precipitation, elevation, latitude, longitude, and stream type. Overall, average daily temperatures significantly increased by 0.02 °C per annum (0.34 °C in total) while annual precipitation significantly decreased by 0.01 mm per annum (-67.8 mm over the study period), paralleled with significant increases in overall species richness (12.3 %) and abundance (14.9 %); water quality was relatively stable. Non-native species richness increased 5-fold and abundance 40-fold, indicating an ongoing community shift from native to non-native species. The observed increase in invasions was stronger in low mountain rivers compared to low mountain streams, with the share of non-native species abundance and richness declining with increasing elevation and latitude but increasing with temperature. We found thermophilic non-native species invasion success was greatest in larger sized streams, at lower latitudes, lower elevations and higher temperatures. These results indicate that widespread environmental characteristics (i.e., temperature) could heighten invasion success and confer refuge effects (i.e., elevation and latitude) in higher sites. High altitude and latitude environments should be prioritised for prevention efforts, while biosecurity and management should be improved in lowland areas subject to greater anthropogenic pressure, where non-native introductions are more likely.

Plant disease risk is modified by multiple global change drivers

Plant diseases are strongly influenced by host biodiversity, spatial structure, and abiotic conditions. All of these are undergoing rapid change, as the climate is warming, habitats are being lost, and nitrogen deposition is changing nutrient dynamics of ecosystems with ensuing consequences for biodiversity. Here, I review examples of plant-pathogen associations to demonstrate how our ability to understand, model and predict disease dynamics is becoming increasingly difficult, as both plant and pathogen populations and communities are undergoing extensive change. The extent of this change is influenced via both direct and combined effects of global change drivers, and especially the latter are still poorly understood. Change at one trophic level is expected to drive change also at the other, and hence feedback loops between plants and their pathogens are expected to drive changes in disease risk both through ecological as well as evolutionary mechanisms. Many of the examples discussed here demonstrate an increase in disease risk as a result of ongoing change, suggesting that unless we successfully mitigate global environmental change, plant disease is going to become an increasingly heavy burden on our societies with far-reaching consequences for food security and functioning of ecosystems.

Short and long-term temperature variations drive recruitment variability in marine and estuarine juvenile fishes

Understanding the long-term effects of climatic factors on key species' recruitment is crucial to species management and conservation. Here, we analysed the recruitment variability of key species (Dicentrarchus labrax, Platichthys flesus, Solea solea, Pomatoschistus microps and Pomatoschistus minutus) in an estuary between 2003 and 2019, and related it with the prevailing local and large-scale environmental factors. Using a dynamic factor analysis (DFA), juvenile abundance data were grouped into three common trends linked to different habitat uses and life cycle characteristics, with significant effect of temperature-related variables on fish recruitment: Sea surface temperature and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. In 2010, a regime shift in the North Atlantic coincided with a shift in the common trends, particularly a decline in P. flesus and S. solea trend. This work highlights the thermophilic character of fish recruitment and the necessity to investigate key biological processes in the context of species-specific responses to climate change.

Alien species and climate change drive shifts in a riverine fish community and trait compositions over 35 years

Alien fish substantially impact aquatic communities. However, their effects on trait composition remain poorly understood, especially at large spatiotemporal scales. Here, we used long-term biomonitoring data (1984-2018) from 31 fish communities of the Rhine river in Germany to investigate compositional and functional changes over time. Average total community richness increased by 49 %: it was stable until 2004, then declined until 2010, before increasing until 2018. Average abundance decreased by 9 %. Starting from 198 individuals/m² in 1984 abundance largely declined to 23 individuals/m² in 2010 (-88 %), and then consequently increased by 678 % up to 180 individuals/m² until 2018. Increases in abundance and richness starting around 2010 were mainly driven by the establishment of alien species: while alien species represented 5 % of all species and 0.1 % of total individuals in 1993, it increased to 30 % (7 species) and 32 % of individuals in 2018. Concomitant to the increase in alien species, average native species richness and abundance declined by 26 % and 50 % respectively. We identified increases in temperature, precipitation, abundance and richness of alien fish driving compositional changes after 2010. To get more insights on the impacts of alien species on fish communities, we used 12 biological and 13 ecological traits to compute four trait metrics each. Ecological trait dispersion increased before 2010, probably due to diminishing ecologically similar native species. No changes in trait metrics were measured after 2010, albeit relative shares of expressed trait modalities significantly changing. The observed shift in trait modalities suggested the introduction of new species carrying similar and novel trait modalities. Our results revealed significant changes in taxonomic and trait compositions following alien fish introductions and climatic change. To conclude, our analyses show taxonomic and functional changes in the Rhine river over 35 years, likely indicative of future changes in ecosystem services.

Long-term trends in crayfish invasions across European rivers

Europe has experienced a substantial increase in non-indigenous crayfish species (NICS) since the mid-20th century due to their extensive use in fisheries, aquaculture and, more recently, pet trade. Despite relatively long invasion histories of some NICS and negative impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning, large spatio-temporal analyses of their occurrences are lacking. Here, we used a large freshwater macroinvertebrate database to evaluate what information on NICS can be obtained from widely applied biomonitoring approaches and how usable such data is for descriptions of trends in identified NICS species. We found 160 time-series containing NICS between 1983 and 2019, to infer temporal patterns and environmental drivers of species and region-specific trends. Using a combination of meta-regression and generalized linear models, we found no significant temporal trend for the abundance of any species (Procambarus clarkii, Pacifastacus leniusculus or Faxonius limosus) at the European scale, but identified species-specific predictors of abundances. While analysis of the spatial range expansion of NICS was positive (i.e. increasing spread) in England and negative (significant retreat) in northern Spain, no trend was detected in Hungary and the Dutch-German-Luxembourg region. The average invasion velocity varied among countries, ranging from 30 km/year in England to 90 km/year in Hungary. The average invasion velocity gradually decreased over time in the long term, with declines being fastest in the Dutch-German-Luxembourg region, and much slower in England. Considering that NICS pose a substantial threat to aquatic biodiversity across Europe, our study highlights the utility and importance of collecting high resolution (i.e. annual) biomonitoring data using a sampling protocol that is able to estimate crayfish abundance, enabling a more profound understanding of NICS impacts on biodiversity.

Interannual variability in early life phenology is driven by climate and oceanic processes in two NE Atlantic flatfishes

Early life phenology is a crucial factor for population dynamics in a climate change scenario. As such, understanding how the early life cycle of marine fishes is influenced by key oceanic and climate drivers is of chief importance for sustainable fisheries. This study documents interannual changes in early life phenology of two commercial flatfishes: European flounder (Platichthys flesus) and common sole (Solea solea) from 2010 to 2015 based on otolith microstructure. Using GAMs, we looked for correlations of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Eastern Atlantic pattern (EA), sea surface temperature (SST), chlorophyl a concentration (Chla) and upwelling (Ui) variation with the onset of hatch, metamorphosis, and benthic settlement day. We concluded that higher SST, more intensive upwelling, and EA were coincident with a later the onset of each stage, while increasing NAO induces an earlier onset of each stage. Although similar to S. solea, P. flesus showed a more complex interaction with the environmental drivers, most possibly because it is at its southern limit of its distribution. Our results highlight the complexity of the relationship between climate conditions and fish early life history, particularly those with complex life cycles that include migrations between coastal areas and estuaries.

Population Genomics for Insect Conservation

Insects constitute vital components of ecosystems. There is alarming evidence for global declines in insect species diversity, abundance, and biomass caused by anthropogenic drivers such as habitat degradation or loss, agricultural practices, climate change, and environmental pollution. This raises important concerns about human food security and ecosystem functionality and calls for more research to assess insect population trends and identify threatened species and the causes of declines to inform conservation strategies. Analysis of genetic diversity is a powerful tool to address these goals, but so far animal conservation genetics research has focused strongly on endangered vertebrates, devoting less attention to invertebrates, such as insects, that constitute most biodiversity. Insects' shorter generation times and larger population sizes likely necessitate different analytical methods and management strategies. The availability of high-quality reference genome assemblies enables population genomics to address several key issues. These include precise inference of past demographic fluctuations and recent declines, measurement of genetic load levels, delineation of evolutionarily significant units and cryptic species, and analysis of genetic adaptation to stressors. This enables identification of populations that are particularly vulnerable to future threats, considering their potential to adapt and evolve. We review the application of population genomics to insect conservation and the outlook for averting insect declines.

Insect biomass density: measurement of seasonal and daily variations using an entomological optical sensor

Insects are major actors in Earth's ecosystems and their recent decline in abundance and diversity is alarming. The monitoring of insects is paramount to understand the cause of this decline and guide conservation policies. In this contribution, an infrared laser-based system is used to remotely monitor the biomass density of flying insects in the wild. By measuring the optical extinction caused by insects crossing the 36-m long laser beam, the Entomological Bistatic Optical Sensor System used in this study can evaluate the mass of each specimen. At the field location, between July and December 2021, the instrument made a total of 262,870 observations of insects for which the average dry mass was 17.1 mg and the median 3.4 mg. The daily average mass of flying insects per meter cube of air at the field location has been retrieved throughout the season and ranged between near 0 to 1.2 mg/m³. Thanks to its temporal resolution in the minute range, daily variations of biomass density have been observed as well. These measurements show daily activity patterns changing with the season, as large increases in biomass density were evident around sunset and sunrise during Summer but not during Fall.

Half-century trends in alpha and beta diversity of phytoplankton summer communities in the Helsinki Archipelago, the Baltic Sea

We analyzed phytoplankton biodiversity trends in a 52 year (1967-2018) monitoring time-series from the archipelago of Helsinki, Gulf of Finland, the Baltic Sea. The community ordination revealed strong ordering of samples along the time axis (generalized additive model-gam fit: R ² = 0.9). Species richness increased in time and was the most influential alpha diversity descriptor related to the community structure (gam fit: R ² = 0.56-0.70). Changes in species richness accounted for 35-36% of the mean between-sample beta diversity. The remaining 64-65% was due to species turnover-the dominant component of the biodiversity trend. The temporal beta diversity trend reflected the eutrophication history of the geographically confined region, with a turning point in mid-1990s demarking the adaptation and recovery phases of the phytoplankton community. Trends in spatial beta diversity revealed homogenization of the communities in the outer archipelago zone, but not in the inner bays. The temporal decay of community similarity revealed high turnover rate, with 23.6 years halving time in the outer archipelago and 11.3 years in the inner bays, revealing the differences in eutrophication strength. The observed phytoplankton trends manifest the regional eutrophication history, and dispersal of new species to the unsaturated brackish species pool.

Benthic ecosystem functioning under climate change: modelling the bioturbation potential for benthic key species in the southern North Sea

Climate change affects the marine environment on many levels with profound consequences for numerous biological, chemical, and physical processes. Benthic bioturbation is one of the most relevant and significant processes for benthic-pelagic coupling and biogeochemical fluxes in marine sediments, such as the uptake, transport, and remineralisation of organic carbon. However, only little is known about how climate change affects the distribution and intensity of benthic bioturbation of a shallow temperate shelf sea system such as the southern North Sea. In this study, we modelled and projected changes in bioturbation potential (BP_p) under a continuous global warming scenario for seven southern North Sea key bioturbators: Abra alba, Amphiura filiformis, Callianassa subterranea, Echinocardium cordatum, Goniada maculata, Nephtys hombergii, and Nucula nitidosa. Spatial changes in species bioturbation intensity are simulated for the years 2050 and 2099 based on one species distribution model per species driven by bottom temperature and salinity changes using the IPCC SRES scenario A1B. Local mean bottom temperature was projected to increase between 0.15 and 5.4 °C, while mean bottom salinity was projected to moderately decrease by 1.7. Our results show that the considered benthic species are strongly influenced by the temperature increase. Although the total BP remained rather constant in the southern North Sea, the BP_p for four out of seven species was projected to increase, mainly due to a simultaneous northward range expansion, while the BP_p in the core area of the southern North Sea declined for the same species. Bioturbation of the most important species, Amphiura filiformis and Echinocardium cordatum, showed no substantial change in the spatial distribution, but over time. The BP_p of E. cordatum remained almost constant until 2099, while the BP_p of A. filiformis decreased by 41%. The northward expansion of some species and the decline of most species in the south led to a change of relative contribution to bioturbation in the southern North Sea. These results indicate that some of the selected key bioturbators in the southern North Sea might partly compensate the decrease in bioturbation by others. But especially in the depositional areas where bioturbation plays a specifically important role for ecosystem functioning, bioturbation potential declined until 2099, which might affect the biochemical cycling in sediments of some areas of the southern North Sea.

Invasion impacts and dynamics of a European-wide introduced species

Globalization has led to the introduction of thousands of alien species worldwide. With growing impacts by invasive species, understanding the invasion process remains critical for predicting adverse effects and informing efficient management. Theoretically, invasion dynamics have been assumed to follow an "invasion curve" (S-shaped curve of available area invaded over time), but this dynamic has lacked empirical testing using large-scale data and neglects to consider invader abundances. We propose an "impact curve" describing the impacts generated by invasive species over time based on cumulative abundances. To test this curve's large-scale applicability, we used the data-rich New Zealand mud snail Potamopyrgus antipodarum, one of the most damaging freshwater invaders that has invaded almost all of Europe. Using long-term (1979-2020) abundance and environmental data collected across 306 European sites, we observed that P. antipodarum abundance generally increased through time, with slower population growth at higher latitudes and with lower runoff depth. Fifty-nine percent of these populations followed the impact curve, characterized by first occurrence, exponential growth, then long-term saturation. This behaviour is consistent with boom-bust dynamics, as saturation occurs due to a rapid decline in abundance over time. Across sites, we estimated that impact peaked approximately two decades after first detection, but the rate of progression along the invasion process was influenced by local abiotic conditions. The S-shaped impact curve may be common among many invasive species that undergo complex invasion dynamics. This provides a potentially unifying approach to advance understanding of large-scale invasion dynamics and could inform timely management actions to mitigate impacts on ecosystems and economies.

Phylogenomic and functional characterization of an evolutionary conserved cytochrome P450-based insecticide detoxification mechanism in bees

Bee pollinator pesticide risk assessment is a regulatory requirement for pesticide registration and is largely based on experimental data collected for surrogate species such as the western honeybee. Recently, CYP9Q3, a honeybee cytochrome P450 enzyme, has been shown to efficiently detoxify certain insecticides such as the butenolide flupyradifurone and the neonicotinoid thiacloprid. Here we analyzed genomic data for 75 bee species and demonstrated by the recombinant expression of 26 CYP9Q3 putative functional orthologs that this detoxification principle is an evolutionary conserved mechanism across bee families. Our toxicogenomics approach has the potential to inform pesticide risk assessment for nonmanaged bee species that are not accessible for acute toxicity testing.

The regulatory process for assessing the risks of pesticides to bees relies heavily on the use of the honeybee, Apis mellifera, as a model for other bee species. However, the validity of using A. mellifera as a surrogate for other Apis and non-Apis bees in pesticide risk assessment has been questioned. Related to this line of research, recent work on A. mellifera has shown that specific P450 enzymes belonging to the CYP9Q subfamily act as critically important determinants of insecticide sensitivity in this species by efficiently detoxifying certain insecticide chemotypes. However, the extent to which the presence of functional orthologs of these enzymes is conserved across the diversity of bees is unclear. Here we used a phylogenomic approach to identify > 100 putative CYP9Q functional orthologs across 75 bee species encompassing all major bee families. Functional analysis of 26 P450s from 20 representative bee species revealed that P450-mediated detoxification of certain systemic insecticides, including the neonicotinoid thiacloprid and the butenolide flupyradifurone, is conserved across all major bee pollinator families. However, our analyses also reveal that CYP9Q-related genes are not universal to all bee species, with some Megachilidae species lacking such genes. Thus, our results reveal an evolutionary conserved capacity to metabolize certain insecticides across all major bee families while identifying a small number of bee species where this function may have been lost. Furthermore, they illustrate the potential of a toxicogenomic approach to inform pesticide risk assessment for nonmanaged bee species by predicting the capability of bee pollinator species to break down synthetic insecticides.

Decadal biodiversity trends in rivers reveal recent community rearrangements

While it is recognized that biodiversity currently declines at a global scale, we still have an incomplete understanding of local biodiversity trends under global change. To address this deficiency, we examined the recent decadal trends in water quality and biodiversity (taxonomic and functional) of key river organisms (diatoms, macroinvertebrates and fish) in France. We implemented regression, RLQ and fourth-corner analyses. Our results showed that nutrient loads tended to decrease, diatom richness tended to decline and macoinvertebrate richness tended to increase. The recovery of sensitive taxa in all three groups suggested a successful outcome of water quality management in France over the past decades. Our study further revealed consistent rearrangements within river communities, with a decrease in the ratio of planktonic to benthic diatoms, and corresponding functional changes in macroinvertebrate and fish trait composition, indicative of a trophic cascade in response to changes in environmental conditions.

Metabolic plasticity can amplify ecosystem responses to global warming

Organisms have the capacity to alter their physiological response to warming through acclimation or adaptation, but the consequence of this metabolic plasticity for energy flow through food webs is currently unknown, and a generalisable framework does not exist for modelling its ecosystem-level effects. Here, using temperature-controlled experiments on stream invertebrates from a natural thermal gradient, we show that the ability of organisms to raise their metabolic rate following chronic exposure to warming decreases with increasing body size. Chronic exposure to higher temperatures also increases the acute thermal sensitivity of whole-organismal metabolic rate, independent of body size. A mathematical model parameterised with these findings shows that metabolic plasticity could account for 60% higher ecosystem energy flux with just +2 °C of warming than a traditional model based on ecological metabolic theory. This could explain why long-term warming amplifies ecosystem respiration rates through time in recent mesocosm experiments, and highlights the need to embed metabolic plasticity in predictive models of global warming impacts on ecosystems.

Organisms can alter their physiological response to warming. Here, the authors show that the ability to raise metabolic rate following exposure to warming is inverse to body size and provide a mathematical model which estimates that metabolic plasticity could amplify energy flux through ecosystems in response to warming.

Geographic and taxonomic trends of rising biological invasion costs

Invasive alien species (IAS) are a growing global ecological problem. Reports on the socio-economic impacts of biological invasions are accumulating, but our understanding of temporal trends across regions and taxa remains scarce. Accordingly, we investigated temporal trends in the economic cost of IAS and cost-reporting literature using the InvaCost database and meta-regression modelling approaches. Overall, we found that both the cost reporting literature and monetary costs increased significantly over time at the global scale, but costs increased faster than reports. Differences in global trends suggest that cost literature has accumulated most rapidly in North America and Oceania, while monetary costs have exhibited the steepest increase in Oceania, followed by Europe, Africa and North America. Moreover, the costs for certain taxonomic groups were more prominent than others and the distribution also differed spatially, reflecting a potential lack of generality in cost-causing taxa and disparate patterns of cost reporting. With regard to global trends within the Animalia and Plantae kingdoms, costs for flatworms, mammals, flowering and vascular plants significantly increased. Our results highlight significantly increasing research interest and monetary impacts of biological invasions globally, but uncover key regional differences driven by variability in reporting of costs across countries and taxa. Our findings also suggest that regions which previously had lower research effort (e.g., Africa) exhibit rapidly increasing costs, comparable to regions historically at the forefront of invasion research. While these increases may be driven by specific countries within regions, we illustrate that even after accounting for research effort (cost reporting), costs of biological invasions are rising.

Arthropod dark taxa provide new insights into diversity responses to bark beetle infestations

Natural disturbances are increasing around the globe, also impacting protected areas. Although previous studies have indicated that natural disturbances result in mainly positive effects on biodiversity, these analyses mostly focused on a few well established taxonomic groups, and thus uncertainty remains regarding the comprehensive impact of natural disturbances on biodiversity. Using Malaise traps and meta-barcoding, we studied a broad range of arthropod taxa, including dark and cryptic taxa, along a gradient of bark beetle disturbance severities in five European national parks. We identified order-level community thresholds of disturbance severity and classified barcode index numbers (BINs; a cluster system for DNA sequences, where each cluster corresponds to a species) as negative or positive disturbance indicators. Negative indicator BINs decreased above thresholds of low to medium disturbance severity (20%-30% of trees killed), whereas positive indicator BINs benefited from high disturbance severity (76%-98%). BINs allocated to a species name contained nearly as many positive as negative disturbance indicators, but dark and cryptic taxa, particularly Diptera and Hymenoptera in our data, contained higher numbers of negative disturbance indicator BINs. Analyses of changes in the richness of BINs showed variable responses of arthropods to disturbance severity at lower taxonomic levels, whereas no significant signal was detected at the order level due to the compensatory responses of the underlying taxa. We conclude that the analyses of dark taxa can offer new insights into biodiversity responses to disturbances. Our results suggest considerable potential for forest management to foster arthropod diversity, for example by maintaining both closed-canopy forests (>70% cover) and open forests (<30% cover) on the landscape.

Influences of Climate Change and Variability on Estuarine Ecosystems: An Impact Study in Selected European, South American and Asian Countries

It is well-known that climate change significantly impacts ecosystems (at the macro-level) and individual species (at the micro-level). Among the former, estuaries are the most vulnerable and affected ecosystems. However, despite the strong relations between climate change and estuaries, there is a gap in the literature regarding international studies across different regions investigating the impacts of climate change and variability on estuaries in different geographical zones. This paper addresses this need and reviews the impacts of climate change, variability and extreme weather on estuaries. It emphasises the following: (i) a set of climate parameters governing estuarine hydrology and processes; and (ii) a sample of countries in Asia (Bangladesh), Europe (Portugal) and South America (Uruguay). We reviewed the influences of the climatic drivers of the estuarine hydrology, ecological processes and specific species in estuarine communities across the selected geographical regions, along with an analysis of their long-term implications. The key results from the three estuaries are as following: (i) Hilsa fish, of which the catches contribute to 10% of the total earnings of the fishery sector (1% of GDP), are affected by climate-forced hydrological and productivity changes in the Meghna; (ii) extreme droughts and short-term severe precipitation have driven the long-term abundance and spatial distribution of both fish larvae and juveniles/adults in the Mondego; and (iii) the river inflow and fluctuations increases since the early 1970s have contributed to variations in the salinity, the stratification, the oxygen, nutrient and trophic levels and the spatial pattern for the life stages of planktonic species, fish biomass and captures in the Rio de la Plata. The results suggested that immediate action is needed to reduce the vulnerability of estuaries to climate stressors, mainly the changing river flows, storms and sea-level rise. As a contribution to addressing current problems, we described a set of adaptation strategies to foster climate resilience and adaptive capacity (e.g., early-warning systems, dam management to prevent overflows and adaptive fisheries management). The implications of this paper are two-fold. Firstly, it showcases a variety of problems that estuaries face from changing climate conditions. Secondly, the paper outlines the need for suitable adaptive management strategies to safeguard the integrity of such vital ecosystems.

Impacts of Warming on Reciprocal Subsidies Between Aquatic and Terrestrial Ecosystems

Cross-ecosystem subsidies are important as their recipients often rely on them to supplement in situ resource availability. Global warming has the potential to alter the quality and quantity of these subsidies, but our knowledge of these effects is currently limited. Here, we quantified the biomass and diversity of the invertebrates exchanged between freshwater streams and terrestrial grasslands in a natural warming experiment in Iceland. We sampled invertebrates emerging from the streams, those landing on the water surface, ground-dwelling invertebrates falling into the streams, and those drifting through the streams. Emerging invertebrate biomass or diversity did not change with increasing temperature, suggesting no effect of warming on aquatic subsidies to the terrestrial environment over the 1-month duration of the study. The biomass and diversity of aerial invertebrates of terrestrial origin landing on the streams increased with temperature, underpinned by increasing abundance and species richness, indicating that the greater productivity of the warmer streams may attract more foraging insects. The biomass of ground-dwelling invertebrates falling into the streams also increased with temperature, underpinned by increasing body mass and species evenness, suggesting that soil warming leads to terrestrial communities dominated by larger, more mobile organisms, and thus more in-fall to the streams. The biomass and diversity of terrestrial invertebrates in the drift decreased with temperature, however, underpinned by decreasing abundance and species richness, reflecting upstream consumption due to the higher energetic demands of aquatic consumers in warmer environments. These results highlight the potential for asynchronous responses to warming for reciprocal subsidies between aquatic and terrestrial environments and the importance of further research on warming impacts at the interface of these interdependent ecosystems.

Multidecadal changes in functional diversity lag behind the recovery of taxonomic diversity

While there has been increasing interest in how taxonomic diversity is changing over time, less is known about how long-term taxonomic changes may affect ecosystem functioning and resilience. Exploring long-term patterns of functional diversity can provide key insights into the capacity of a community to carry out ecological processes and the redundancy of species' roles. We focus on a protected freshwater system located in a national park in southeast Germany. We use a high-resolution benthic macroinvertebrate dataset spanning 32 years (1983-2014) and test whether changes in functional diversity are reflected in taxonomic diversity using a multidimensional trait-based approach and regression analyses. Specifically, we asked: (i) How has functional diversity changed over time? (ii) How functionally distinct are the community's taxa? (iii) Are changes in functional diversity concurrent with taxonomic diversity? And (iv) what is the extent of community functional redundancy? Resultant from acidification mitigation, macroinvertebrate taxonomic diversity increased over the study period. Recovery of functional diversity was less pronounced, lagging behind responses of taxonomic diversity. Over multidecadal timescales, the macroinvertebrate community has become more homogenous with a high degree of functional redundancy, despite being isolated from direct anthropogenic activity. While taxonomic diversity increased over time, functional diversity has yet to catch up. These results demonstrate that anthropogenic pressures can remain a threat to biotic communities even in protected areas. The differences in taxonomic and functional recovery processes highlight the need to incorporate functional traits in assessments of biodiversity responses to global change.

Bird population declines and species turnover are changing the acoustic properties of spring soundscapes

Natural sounds, and bird song in particular, play a key role in building and maintaining our connection with nature, but widespread declines in bird populations mean that the acoustic properties of natural soundscapes may be changing. Using data-driven reconstructions of soundscapes in lieu of historical recordings, here we quantify changes in soundscape characteristics at more than 200,000 sites across North America and Europe. We integrate citizen science bird monitoring data with recordings of individual species to reveal a pervasive loss of acoustic diversity and intensity of soundscapes across both continents over the past 25 years, driven by changes in species richness and abundance. These results suggest that one of the fundamental pathways through which humans engage with nature is in chronic decline, with potentially widespread implications for human health and well-being.

Butterfly declines in protected areas of Illinois: Assessing the influence of two decades of climate and landscape change

Despite increasing concern regarding broad-scale declines in insects, there are few published long-term, systematic butterfly surveys in North America, and fewer still that have incorporated the influence of changing climate and landscape variables. In this study, we analyzed 20 years of citizen science data at seven consistently monitored protected areas in Illinois, U.S.A. We used mixed models and PERMANOVA to evaluate trends in butterfly abundance, richness, and composition while also evaluating the effects of temperature and land use. Overall butterfly richness, but not abundance, increased in warmer years. Surprisingly, richness also was positively related to percent impervious surface (at the 2 km radius scale), highlighting the conservation value of protected areas in urban landscapes (or alternately, the potential negative aspects of agriculture). Precipitation had a significant and variable influence through time on overall butterfly abundance and abundance of resident species, larval host plant specialists, and univoltine species. Importantly, models incorporating the influence of changing temperature, precipitation, and impervious surface indicated a significant overall decline in both butterfly abundance and species richness, with an estimated abundance decrease of 3.8%/year and richness decrease of 1.6%/year (52.5% and 27.1% cumulatively from 1999 to 2018). Abundance and richness declines were also noted across all investigated functional groups except non-resident (migratory) species. Butterfly community composition changed through time, but we did not find evidence of systematic biotic homogenization, perhaps because declines were occurring in nearly all functional groups. Finally, at the site-level, declines in either richness or abundance occurred at five of seven locations, with only the two largest locations (>300 Ha) not exhibiting declines. Our results mirror those of other long-term butterfly studies predominantly in Europe and North America that have found associations of butterflies with climate variables and general declines in butterfly richness and abundance.

Relationship of insect biomass and richness with land use along a climate gradient

Recently reported insect declines have raised both political and social concern. Although the declines have been attributed to land use and climate change, supporting evidence suffers from low taxonomic resolution, short time series, a focus on local scales, and the collinearity of the identified drivers. In this study, we conducted a systematic assessment of insect populations in southern Germany, which showed that differences in insect biomass and richness are highly context dependent. We found the largest difference in biomass between semi-natural and urban environments (-42%), whereas differences in total richness (-29%) and the richness of threatened species (-56%) were largest from semi-natural to agricultural environments. These results point to urbanization and agriculture as major drivers of decline. We also found that richness and biomass increase monotonously with increasing temperature, independent of habitat. The contrasting patterns of insect biomass and richness question the use of these indicators as mutual surrogates. Our study provides support for the implementation of more comprehensive measures aimed at habitat restoration in order to halt insect declines.

Drought effects on invertebrate metapopulation dynamics and quasi-extinction risk in an intermittent river network

Ecological communities can remain stable in the face of disturbance if their constituent species have different resistance and resilience strategies. In turn, local stability scales up regionally if heterogeneous landscapes maintain spatial asynchrony across discrete populations-but not if large-scale stressors synchronize environmental conditions and biological responses. Here, we hypothesized that droughts could drastically decrease the stability of invertebrate metapopulations both by filtering out poorly adapted species locally, and by synchronizing their dynamics across a river network. We tested this hypothesis via multivariate autoregressive state-space (MARSS) models on spatially replicated, long-term data describing aquatic invertebrate communities and hydrological conditions in a set of temperate, lowland streams subject to seasonal and supraseasonal drying events. This quantitative approach allowed us to assess the influence of local (flow magnitude) and network-scale (hydrological connectivity) drivers on invertebrate long-term trajectories, and to simulate near-future responses to a range of drought scenarios. We found that fluctuations in species abundances were heterogeneous across communities and driven by a combination of hydrological and stochastic drivers. Among metapopulations, increasing extent of dry reaches reduced the abundance of functional groups with low resistance or resilience capacities (i.e. low ability to persist in situ or recolonize from elsewhere, respectively). Our simulations revealed that metapopulation quasi-extinction risk for taxa vulnerable to drought increased exponentially as flowing habitats contracted within the river network, whereas the risk for taxa with resistance and resilience traits remained stable. Our results suggest that drought can be a synchronizing agent in riverscapes, potentially leading to regional quasi-extinction of species with lower resistance and resilience abilities. Better recognition of drought-driven synchronization may increase realism in species extinction forecasts as hydroclimatic extremes continue to intensify worldwide.

Long-term data reveal unimodal responses of ground beetle abundance to precipitation and land use but no changes in taxonomic and functional diversity

While much of global biodiversity is undoubtedly under threat, the responses of ecological communities to changing climate, land use intensification, and long-term changes in both taxonomic and functional diversity over time, has still not been fully explored for many taxonomic groups, especially invertebrates. We compiled time series of ground beetles covering the past two decades from 40 sites located in five regions across Germany. We calculated site-based trends for 21 community metrics representing taxonomic and functional diversity of ground beetles, activity density (a proxy for abundance), and activity densities of functional groups. We assessed both overall and regional temporal trends and the influence of the global change drivers of temperature, precipitation, and land use on ground beetle communities. While we did not detect overall temporal changes in ground beetle taxonomic and functional diversity, taxonomic turnover changed within two regions, illustrating that community change at the local scale does not always correspond to patterns at broader spatial scales. Additionally, ground beetle activity density had a unimodal response to both annual precipitation and land use. Limited temporal change in ground beetle communities may indicate a shifting baseline, where community degradation was reached prior to the start of our observation in 1999. In addition, nonlinear responses of animal communities to environmental change present a challenge when quantifying temporal trends.

The functional composition of nearshore fish communities demonstrated by trait analysis: Response to environmental gradients

There is limited understanding on nearshore fish community functioning in relation to changing environmental gradients. To address this, we investigated the trait composition of fish communities in five regions along the Portuguese coast during 4 years. Northern regions were characterized by higher Chlorophyll-α and small-sized species with short lifespans. The southernmost region was characterized by warmer waters, more intense upwelling events and typical warm-water species. Higher species richness and functional redundancy at the southernmost region suggested that in case of potential species loss, community functioning would be less affected in this region, and thus, a certain level of community resilience is maintained. The central region presented lower functional redundancy and high functional richness, which indicated the presence of rare species with rare traits, suggesting a more vulnerable community. This information on the nearshore fish community distribution may be particularly important towards managing coastal ecosystems in response to changing environmental conditions.

Street lighting has detrimental impacts on local insect populations

Reported declines in insect populations have sparked global concern, with artificial light at night (ALAN) identified as a potential contributing factor. Despite strong evidence that lighting disrupts a range of insect behaviors, the empirical evidence that ALAN diminishes wild insect abundance is limited. Using a matched-pairs design, we found that street lighting strongly reduced moth caterpillar abundance compared with unlit sites (47% reduction in hedgerows and 33% reduction in grass margins) and affected caterpillar development. A separate experiment in habitats with no history of lighting revealed that ALAN disrupted the feeding behavior of nocturnal caterpillars. Negative impacts were more pronounced under white light-emitting diode (LED) street lights compared to conventional yellow sodium lamps. This indicates that ALAN and the ongoing shift toward white LEDs (i.e., narrow- to broad-spectrum lighting) will have substantial consequences for insect populations and ecosystem processes.

Sedimentary ancient DNA shows terrestrial plant richness continuously increased over the Holocene in northern Fennoscandia

The effects of climate change on species richness are debated but can be informed by the past. Here, we generated a sedimentary ancient DNA dataset covering 10 lakes and applied novel methods for data harmonization. We assessed the impact of Holocene climate changes and nutrients on terrestrial plant richness in northern Fennoscandia. We find that richness increased steeply during the rapidly warming Early Holocene. In contrast to findings from most pollen studies, we show that richness continued to increase thereafter, although the climate was stable, with richness and the regional species pool only stabilizing during the past three millennia. Furthermore, overall increases in richness were greater in catchments with higher soil nutrient availability. We suggest that richness will increase with ongoing warming, especially at localities with high nutrient availability and assuming that human activity remains low in the region, although lags of millennia may be expected.

Effects of climate variability on an estuarine green crab Carcinus maenas population

The increase in frequency and intensity of extreme climate events over the last few decades has been leading to profound changes in estuarine and marine ecosystems worldwide, with strong implications for the species inhabiting these ecosystems as well as for the services provided by them. In this study, we analysed the effects of climate variability on the temporal and spatial variations in population dynamics of the green crab Carcinus maenas in the Mondego estuary (Portugal), between 2003 and 2018. In this 15-year period, a greater recruitment of C. maenas was observed during drought periods, periods which was matched by an increase in secondary production. Ontogenic stage segregation was also observed, with juveniles being found mainly in the further upriver areas of the estuary. The estuarine population was mainly composed of the green morphotype, with the orange and red morphotypes present in more downstream areas of the estuary. Redundancy analysis (RDA) showed high spatial and temporal variability of C. maenas in the estuary which was related with environmental changes over the 15-year period. A correlation between C. maenas biological features and several local-scale (salinity and river runoff) and large-scale (North Atlantic Oscillation index and Eastern Atlantic pattern) environmental variables was identified through cumulative sums analysis (CUSUM), indicating a strong environmental control on C. maenas population dynamics. This paper shows the importance of relatively long-term datasets to unravel the effects of extreme weather events due to climate change on key epibenthic estuarine species, and also how they might cope with a changing marine environment.

Intrinsic ecological dynamics drive biodiversity turnover in model metacommunities

Turnover of species composition through time is frequently observed in ecosystems. It is often interpreted as indicating the impact of changes in the environment. Continuous turnover due solely to ecological dynamics-species interactions and dispersal-is also known to be theoretically possible; however the prevalence of such autonomous turnover in natural communities remains unclear. Here we demonstrate that observed patterns of compositional turnover and other important macroecological phenomena can be reproduced in large spatially explicit model ecosystems, without external forcing such as environmental change or the invasion of new species into the model. We find that autonomous turnover is triggered by the onset of ecological structural instability-the mechanism that also limits local biodiversity. These results imply that the potential role of autonomous turnover as a widespread and important natural process is underappreciated, challenging assumptions implicit in many observation and management tools. Quantifying the baseline level of compositional change would greatly improve ecological status assessments.

Combining range and phenology shifts offers a winning strategy for boreal Lepidoptera

Species can adapt to climate change by adjusting in situ or by dispersing to new areas, and these strategies may complement or enhance each other. Here, we investigate temporal shifts in phenology and spatial shifts in northern range boundaries for 289 Lepidoptera species by using long-term data sampled over two decades. While 40% of the species neither advanced phenology nor moved northward, nearly half (45%) used one of the two strategies. The strongest positive population trends were observed for the minority of species (15%) that both advanced flight phenology and shifted their northern range boundaries northward. We show that, for boreal Lepidoptera, a combination of phenology and range shifts is the most viable strategy under a changing climate. Effectively, this may divide species into winners and losers based on their propensity to capitalize on this combination, with potentially large consequences on future community composition.