Evidence of anthropogenic impacts on global drought frequency, duration, and intensity

Drought: A context-dependent damper and aggravator of plant diseases

Drought dynamically influences the interactions between plants and pathogens, thereby affecting disease outbreaks. Understanding the intricate mechanistic aspects of the multiscale interactions among plants, pathogens, and the environment-known as the disease triangle-is paramount for enhancing the climate resilience of crop plants. In this review, we systematically compile and comprehensively analyse current knowledge on the influence of drought on the severity of plant diseases. We emphasise that studying these stresses in isolation is not sufficient to predict how plants respond to combined stress from both drought and pathogens. The impact of drought and pathogens on plants is complex and multifaceted, encompassing the activation of antagonistic signalling cascades in response to stress factors. The nature, intensity, and temporality of drought and pathogen stress occurrence significantly influence the outcome of diseases. We delineate the drought-sensitive nodes of plant immunity and highlight the emerging points of crosstalk between drought and defence signalling under combined stress. The limited mechanistic understanding of these interactions is acknowledged as a key research gap in this area. The information synthesised herein will be crucial for crafting strategies for the accurate prediction and mitigation of future crop disease risks, particularly in the context of a changing climate.

ENSO effects on the relationship between aerosols and evapotranspiration in the south of the Amazon biome

The effects of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events have local, regional, and global consequences for water regimes, causing floods or extreme drought events. Tropical forests are strongly affected by ENSO, and in the case of the Amazon, its territorial extension allows for a wide variation of these effects. The prolongation of drought events in the Amazon basin contributes to an increase in gas and aerosol particle emissions mainly caused by biomass burning, which in turn alter radiative fluxes and evapotranspiration rates, cyclically interfering with the hydrological regime. The ENSO effects on the interactions between aerosol particles and evapotranspiration is a critical aspect to be systematically investigated. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the ENSO effect on a site located on the southern portion of the Amazonian region. In addition to quantifying and testing possible differences between aerosols and evapotranspiration under different ENSO classes (El Niño, La Niña and Neutrality), this study also evaluated possible variations in evapotranspiration as a function of the aerosol load. A highly significant difference was found for air temperature, relative humidity and aerosol load between the El Niño and La Niña classes. For evapotranspiration, significant differences were found for the El Niño and La Niña classes and for El Niño and Neutrality classes. Under the Neutrality class, the aerosol load correlated significantly with evapotranspiration, explaining 20% of the phenomenon. Under the El Niño and La Niña classes, no significant linear correlation was found between aerosol load and evapotranspiration. However, the results showed that for the total data set, there is a positive and significant correlation between aerosol and evapotranspiration. It increases with a quadratic fit, i.e., the aerosol favors evapotranspiration rates up to a certain concentration threshold. The results obtained in this study can help to understand the effects of ENSO events on atmospheric conditions in the southern Amazon basin, in addition to elucidating the role of aerosols in feedback to the water cycle in the region.

Spatiotemporal characteristics of meteorological drought events in 34 major global river basins during 1901-2021

Meteorological drought is a crucial driver of various types of droughts; thus, identifying the spatiotemporal characteristics of meteorological drought at the basin scale has implications for ecological and water resource security. However, differences in drought characteristics between river basins have not been clearly elucidated. In this study, we identify and compare meteorological drought events in 34 major river basins worldwide using a three-dimensional drought-clustering algorithm based on the standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index on a 12-month scale from 1901 to 2021. Despite synchronous increases in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET), with precipitation increasing by more than three times the PET, 47 % (16/34) of the basins showed a tendency towards drought in over half their basin areas. Drought events occurred frequently, with more than half identified as short-term droughts (lasting less than or equal to three months). Small basins had a larger drought impact area, with major drought events often originating from the basin boundaries and migrating towards the basin centre. Meteorological droughts were driven by changes in sea surface temperature (SST), especially the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or other climate indices. Anomalies in SST and atmospheric circulation caused by ENSO events may have led to altered climate patterns in different basins, resulting in drought events. These results provide important insights into the characteristics and mechanisms of meteorological droughts in different river basins worldwide.

Drought alters aboveground biomass production efficiency: Insights from two European beech forests

The fraction of photosynthetically assimilated carbon that trees allocate to long-lasting woody biomass pools (biomass production efficiency - BPE), is a key metric of the forest carbon balance. Its apparent simplicity belies the complex interplay between underlying processes of photosynthesis, respiration, litter and fruit production, and tree growth that respond differently to climate variability. Whereas the magnitude of BPE has been routinely quantified in ecological studies, its temporal dynamics and responses to extreme events such as drought remain less well understood. Here, we combine long-term records of aboveground carbon increment (ACI) obtained from tree rings with stand-level gross primary productivity (GPP) from eddy covariance (EC) records to empirically quantify aboveground BPE (= ACI/GPP) and its interannual variability in two European beech forests (Hainich, DE-Hai, Germany; Sorø, DK-Sor, Denmark). We found significant negative correlations between BPE and a daily-resolved drought index at both sites, indicating that woody growth is de-prioritized under water limitation. During identified extreme years, early-season drought reduced same-year BPE by 29 % (Hainich, 2011), 31 % (Sorø, 2006), and 14 % (Sorø, 2013). By contrast, the 2003 late-summer drought resulted in a 17 % reduction of post-drought year BPE at Hainich. Across the entire EC period, the daily-to-seasonal drought response of BPE resembled that of ACI, rather than that of GPP. This indicates that BPE follows sink dynamics more closely than source dynamics, which appear to be decoupled given the distinctive climate response patterns of GPP and ACI. Based on our observations, we caution against estimating the magnitude and variability of the carbon sink in European beech (and likely other temperate forests) based on carbon fluxes alone. We also encourage comparable studies at other long-term EC measurement sites from different ecosystems to further constrain the BPE response to rare climatic events.

Increasing radial growth in old-growth high-elevation conifers in Southern California, USA, during the exceptional "hot drought" of 2000-2020

Hot droughts, droughts attributed to below-average precipitation and exceptional warmth, are increasingly common in the twenty-first century, yet little is known about their effect on coniferous tree growth because of their historical rarity. In much of the American West, including California, radial tree growth is principally driven by precipitation, and narrow ring widths are typically associated with either drier or drought conditions. However, for species growing at high elevations (e.g., Larix lyalli, Pinus albicaulis), growth can be closely aligned with above-average temperatures with maximum growth coinciding with meteorological drought, suggesting that the growth effects of drought span from adverse to beneficial depending on location. Here, we compare radial growth responses of three high-elevation old-growth pines (Pinus jeffreyi, P. lambertiana, and P. contorta) growing in the San Jacinto Mountains, California, during a twenty-first-century hot drought (2000-2020) largely caused by exceptional warmth and a twentieth-century drought (1959-1966) principally driven by precipitation deficits. Mean radial growth during the hot drought was 12% above average while 18% below average during the mid-century drought illustrating that the consequences of environmental stress exhibit spatiotemporal variability. We conclude that the effects of hot droughts on tree growth in high-elevation forests may produce responses different than what is commonly associated with extended dry periods for much of western North America's forested lands at lower elevational ranges and likely applies to other mountainous regions (e.g., Mediterranean Europe) defined by summer-dry conditions. Thus, the climatological/biological interactions discovered in Southern California may offer clues to the unique nature of high-elevation forested ecosystems globally.

Earth at risk: An urgent call to end the age of destruction and forge a just and sustainable future

Human development has ushered in an era of converging crises: climate change, ecological destruction, disease, pollution, and socioeconomic inequality. This review synthesizes the breadth of these interwoven emergencies and underscores the urgent need for comprehensive, integrated action. Propelled by imperialism, extractive capitalism, and a surging population, we are speeding past Earth's material limits, destroying critical ecosystems, and triggering irreversible changes in biophysical systems that underpin the Holocene climatic stability which fostered human civilization. The consequences of these actions are disproportionately borne by vulnerable populations, further entrenching global inequities. Marine and terrestrial biomes face critical tipping points, while escalating challenges to food and water access foreshadow a bleak outlook for global security. Against this backdrop of Earth at risk, we call for a global response centered on urgent decarbonization, fostering reciprocity with nature, and implementing regenerative practices in natural resource management. We call for the elimination of detrimental subsidies, promotion of equitable human development, and transformative financial support for lower income nations. A critical paradigm shift must occur that replaces exploitative, wealth-oriented capitalism with an economic model that prioritizes sustainability, resilience, and justice. We advocate a global cultural shift that elevates kinship with nature and communal well-being, underpinned by the recognition of Earth's finite resources and the interconnectedness of its inhabitants. The imperative is clear: to navigate away from this precipice, we must collectively harness political will, economic resources, and societal values to steer toward a future where human progress does not come at the cost of ecological integrity and social equity.

Climate change will reduce North American inland wetland areas and disrupt their seasonal regimes

Climate change can alter wetland extent and function, but such impacts are perplexing. Here, changes in wetland characteristics over North America from 25° to 53° North are projected under two climate scenarios using a state-of-the-science Earth system model. At the continental scale, annual wetland area decreases by ~10% (6%-14%) under the high emission scenario, but spatiotemporal changes vary, reaching up to ±50%. As the dominant driver of these changes shifts from precipitation to temperature in the higher emission scenario, wetlands undergo substantial drying during summer season when biotic processes peak. The projected disruptions to wetland seasonality cycles imply further impacts on biodiversity in major wetland habitats of upper Mississippi, Southeast Canada, and the Everglades. Furthermore, wetlands are projected to significantly shrink in cold regions due to the increased infiltration as warmer temperature reduces soil ice. The large dependence of the projections on climate change scenarios underscores the importance of emission mitigation to sustaining wetland ecosystems in the future.

Spatiotemporal evolution of agricultural drought and its attribution under different climate zones and vegetation types in the Yellow River Basin of China

Ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin (YRB) are major national strategies in China. Agricultural drought (AD) is one of the most important stress factors of the ecological security of the YRB. Currently, there is a lack of exploration of the spatiotemporal evolution of AD in the YRB under different climatic zones and vegetation types, and the mechanisms by the driving factors influence AD remain unclear. The Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI) for the YRB in China during 2000-2020 was calculated using Land Surface Temperature (LST) and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). We analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution of AD from the perspective of upstream of the YRB (UYRB), midstream of the YRB (MYRB), and downstream of the YRB (DYRB), as well as different climate zones and vegetation types. The driving factors were selected based on the Pearson correlation analysis, Geographical detector, and Mantel test. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was employed to quantify the direct and indirect effects of the driving factors on AD in the YRB. We found a slowing trend of AD in the YRB, mainly in the Loess Plateau, which is distributed in UYRB and MYRB, but an increasing trend for AD in DYRB. Temperature, which is the most direct influential factor, has exacerbated AD in UYRB and MYRB. However, surface solar radiation (SSR) has the greatest constraining effect on DYRB. AD increased in arid and desert zones, while a decreasing trend is observed for other climatic zones and vegetation types. In arid and semiarid zones, human activities and SSR were the largest indirect factors exacerbating AD. In humid and subhumid zones, the largest indirect factor exacerbating AD was potential evapotranspiration (PET). Temperature is the most direct factor exacerbating AD in cropland and forest, while PET is the largest indirect factor exacerbating AD in grassland. This study elucidates the driving factors and mechanisms of AD in the YRB to provide scientific decision support for mitigating regional drought and promoting regional sustainable development.

Disappearing cities on US coasts

The sea level along the US coastlines is projected to rise by 0.25-0.3 m by 2050, increasing the probability of more destructive flooding and inundation in major cities1-3. However, these impacts may be exacerbated by coastal subsidence-the sinking of coastal land areas4-a factor that is often underrepresented in coastal-management policies and long-term urban planning2,5. In this study, we combine high-resolution vertical land motion (that is, raising or lowering of land) and elevation datasets with projections of sea-level rise to quantify the potential inundated areas in 32 major US coastal cities. Here we show that, even when considering the current coastal-defence structures, further land area of between 1,006 and 1,389 km2 is threatened by relative sea-level rise by 2050, posing a threat to a population of 55,000-273,000 people and 31,000-171,000 properties. Our analysis shows that not accounting for spatially variable land subsidence within the cities may lead to inaccurate projections of expected exposure. These potential consequences show the scale of the adaptation challenge, which is not appreciated in most US coastal cities.

Remote sensing-based drought hazard monitoring and assessment in a coastal plain: A principal component approach

Accurate drought information is essential for preventing agricultural and societal losses. The indicators of how severe a drought is the deficiency in precipitation, soil moisture, and vegetation stress. The indicators were evaluated using the Precipitation Condition Index (PCI), Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), and Temperature Condition Index (TCI).The indices were combined using Principal Component Analysis to create the Synthetic Drought Index (SDI) for the evaluation of drought severity. The indices were estimated using multi-source remote sensing data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Operational Land Imager (OLI) of various years. Temporal analysis showed that the district is drought-prone and deficiency of 65% of precipitation in northeast monsoon of 2016 and below average non-monsoon rainfall in 2017, caused drought and affected 223.5 Km2 in 2017. Below average precipitation in northeast monsoon of 2018 and below average non-monsoon rainfall in 2019, caused drought and affected 423 Km2 in 2019. The northeast coastal regions of Ottapidaram, Thoothukudi, and Vilathikulam taluks of the district were more severely prone to drought. Failure of monsoon is the root cause of water deficit in water bodies. The semi-arid coastal climate accelerates the evaporation of water in water bodies and causes soil moisture deficit that leads to drought in the coastal district. A sequential evaluation of this index can be used to identify the onset of drought and mitigate the effect of drought.

Increased belowground tree carbon allocation in a mature mixed forest in a dry versus a wet year

Tree species differ in their carbon (C) allocation strategies during environmental change. Disentangling species-specific strategies and contribution to the C balance of mixed forests requires observations at the individual tree level. We measured a complete set of C pools and fluxes at the tree level in five tree species, conifers and broadleaves, co-existing in a mature evergreen mixed Mediterranean forest. Our study period included a drought year followed by an above-average wet year, offering an opportunity to test the effect of water availability on tree C allocation. We found that in comparison to the wet year, C uptake was lower in the dry year, C use was the same, and allocation to belowground sinks was higher. Among the five major C sinks, respiration was the largest (ca. 60%), while root exudation (ca. 10%) and reproduction (ca. 2%) were those that increased the most in the dry year. Most trees relied on stored starch for maintaining a stable soluble sugars balance, but no significant differences were detected in aboveground storage between dry and wet years. The detailed tree-level analysis of nonstructural carbohydrates and δ13 C dynamics suggest interspecific differences in C allocation among fluxes and tissues, specifically in response to the varying water availability. Overall, our findings shed light on mixed forest physiological responses to drought, an increasing phenomenon under the ongoing climate change.

JF, Calvo DA, Carbognani M, Cardoni A, Carlyle CN, Castillo-Garcia M, Chang SX, Chieppa J, Cianciaruso MV, Cohen O, Cordeiro AL, Cusack DF, Dahlke S, Daleo P, D'Antonio CM, Dietterich LH, S. Doherty T, Dubbert M, Ebeling A, Eisenhauer N, Fischer FM, Forte TGW, Gebauer T, Gozalo B, Greenville AC, Guidoni-Martins KG, Hannusch HJ, Vatsø Haugum S, Hautier Y, Hefting M, Henry HAL, Hoss D, Ingrisch J, Iribarne O, Isbell F, Johnson Y, Jordan S, Kelly EF, Kimmel K, Kreyling J, Kröel-Dulay G, Kröpfl A, Kübert A, Kulmatiski A, Lamb EG, Larsen KS, Larson J, Lawson J, Leder CV, Linstädter A, Liu J, Liu S, Lodge AG, Longo G, Loydi A, Luan J, Curtis Lubbe F, Macfarlane C, Mackie-Haas K, Malyshev AV, Maturano-Ruiz A, Merchant T, Metcalfe DB, Mori AS, Mudongo E, Newman GS, Nielsen UN, Nimmo D, Niu Y, Nobre P, O'Connor RC, Ogaya R, Oñatibia GR, Orbán I, Osborne B, Otfinowski R, Pärtel M, Penuelas J, Peri PL, Peter G, Petraglia A, Picon-Cochard C, Pillar VD, Piñeiro-Guerra JM, Ploughe LW, Plowes RM, Portales-Reyes C, Prober SM, Pueyo Y, Reed SC, Ritchie EG, Rodríguez DA, Rogers WE, Roscher C, Sánchez AM, Santos BA, Cecilia Scarfó M, Seabloom EW, Shi B, Souza L, Stampfli A, Standish RJ, Sternberg M, Sun W, Sünnemann M, Tedder M, Thorvaldsen P, Tian D, Tielbörger K, Valdecantos A, van den Brink L, Vandvik V, Vankoughnett MR, Guri Velle L, Wang C, Wang Y, Wardle GM, Werner C, Wei C, Wiehl G, Williams JL, Wolf AA, Zeiter M, Zhang F, Zhu J, Zong N, Zuo X. Extreme drought impacts have been underestimated in grasslands and shrublands globally

Climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of short-term (~1 y) drought events-the most common duration of drought-globally. Yet the impact of this intensification of drought on ecosystem functioning remains poorly resolved. This is due in part to the widely disparate approaches ecologists have employed to study drought, variation in the severity and duration of drought studied, and differences among ecosystems in vegetation, edaphic and climatic attributes that can mediate drought impacts. To overcome these problems and better identify the factors that modulate drought responses, we used a coordinated distributed experiment to quantify the impact of short-term drought on grassland and shrubland ecosystems. With a standardized approach, we imposed ~a single year of drought at 100 sites on six continents. Here we show that loss of a foundational ecosystem function-aboveground net primary production (ANPP)-was 60% greater at sites that experienced statistically extreme drought (1-in-100-y event) vs. those sites where drought was nominal (historically more common) in magnitude (35% vs. 21%, respectively). This reduction in a key carbon cycle process with a single year of extreme drought greatly exceeds previously reported losses for grasslands and shrublands. Our global experiment also revealed high variability in drought response but that relative reductions in ANPP were greater in drier ecosystems and those with fewer plant species. Overall, our results demonstrate with unprecedented rigor that the global impacts of projected increases in drought severity have been significantly underestimated and that drier and less diverse sites are likely to be most vulnerable to extreme drought.

Impacts of climate change on the fate of contaminants through extreme weather events

The direct impacts of climate change involve a multitude of phenomena, including rising sea levels, intensified severe weather events such as droughts and flooding, increased temperatures leading to wildfires, and unpredictable fluctuations in rainfall. This comprehensive review intends to examine firstly the probable consequences of climate change on extreme weather events such as drought, flood and wildfire. This review subsequently examines the release and transformation of contaminants in terrestrial, aquatic, and atmospheric environments in response to extreme weather events driven by climate change. While drought and flood influence the dynamics of inorganic and organic contaminants in terrestrial and aquatic environments, thereby influencing their mobility and transport, wildfire results in the release and spread of organic contaminants in the atmosphere. There is a nascent awareness of climate change's influence of climate change-induced extreme weather events on the dynamics of environmental contaminants in the scientific community and decision-making processes. The remediation industry, in particular, lags behind in adopting adaptive measures for managing contaminated environments affected by climate change-induced extreme weather events. However, recognizing the need for assessment measures represents a pivotal first step towards fostering more adaptive practices in the management of contaminated environments. We highlight the urgency of collaboration between environmental chemists and climate change experts, emphasizing the importance of jointly assessing the fate of contaminants and rigorous action to augment risk assessment and remediation strategies to safeguard the health of our environment.

Nonstationary frequency analysis and uncertainty quantification for extreme low lake levels in a large river-lake-catchment system

Extreme hydrological events have become increasingly frequent on a global scale. The middle Yangtze River also faces a substantial challenge in dealing with extreme flooding and drought. However, the long-term characteristics of the extreme hydrological regime have not yet been adequately recognized. Moreover, there is uncertainty in the extreme value estimation, and this uncertainty needs to be distinguished and quantified. In this study, we investigated the nonstationary frequency characteristics of extreme low lake levels (ELLLs), taking the Poyang Lake as an example. Daily lake levels from 1960 to 2022 were utilized to estimate the return level using the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD). The uncertainty from three sources, i.e., the parameter estimator, threshold selection, and covariate, was quantified via variance decomposition. The results indicate that (1) the parameter estimator is the predominant source of uncertainty, with a contribution rate of approximately 87 %. The total uncertainty of the covariate, threshold, and interaction term is only 13 %. (2) Two indexes, namely the annual minimum water level (WLmin) and the days with peak over the 90 % threshold per year (DPOT90), decreased (0.01-0.03 m/year) and increased (0.17-1.39 days/year), respectively, indicating a progressively severe drought trend for Poyang Lake. (3) The return level with return period of 5 to 100 years significantly decreased after the early 21st century. A large spatial heterogeneity was identified for the variation in the return level, and the change rate of the return level with a 100-year return period ranged from 5 % to 40 % for the whole lake. (4) The ELLLs had a stronger correlation with the catchment discharge than with the Yangtze River discharge and the large-scale atmospheric circulation indices. This study provides a methodology with reduced uncertainty for nonstationary frequency analysis (NFA) of ELLLs exemplified in large river-lake systems.

Peatland restoration pathways to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and retain peat carbon

Peatlands play a crucial role in the global carbon (C) cycle, making their restoration a key strategy for mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and retaining C. This study analyses the most common restoration pathways employed in boreal and temperate peatlands, potentially applicable in tropical peat swamp forests. Our analysis focuses on the GHG emissions and C retention potential of the restoration measures. To assess the C stock change in restored (rewetted) peatlands and afforested peatlands with continuous drainage, we adopt a conceptual approach that considers short-term C capture (GHG exchange between the atmosphere and the peatland ecosystem) and long-term C sequestration in peat. The primary criterion of our conceptual model is the capacity of restoration measures to capture C and reduce GHG emissions. Our findings indicate that carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most influential part of long-term climate impact of restored peatlands, whereas moderate methane (CH4) emissions and low N2O fluxes are relatively unimportant. However, lateral losses of dissolved and particulate C in water can account up to a half of the total C stock change. Among the restored peatland types, Sphagnum paludiculture showed the highest CO2 capture, followed by shallow lakes and reed/grass paludiculture. Shallow lakeshore vegetation in restored peatlands can reduce CO2 emissions and sequester C but still emit CH4, particularly during the first 20 years after restoration. Our conceptual modelling approach reveals that over a 300-year period, under stable climate conditions, drained bog forests can lose up to 50% of initial C content. In managed (regularly harvested) and continuously drained peatland forests, C accumulation in biomass and litter input does not compensate C losses from peat. In contrast, rewetted unmanaged peatland forests are turning into a persistent C sink. The modelling results emphasized the importance of long-term C balance analysis which considers soil C accumulation, moving beyond the short-term C cycling between vegetation and the atmosphere.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10533-023-01103-1.

Interactions with fungi vary among Tripsacum dactyloides genotypes from across a precipitation gradient

Plant-associated microbes, specifically fungal endophytes, augment the ability of many grasses to adapt to extreme environmental conditions. Tripsacum dactyloides (Eastern gamagrass) is a perennial, drought-tolerant grass native to the tallgrass prairies of the central USA. The extent to which the microbiome of T. dactyloides contributes to its drought tolerance is unknown. Ninety-seven genotypes of T. dactyloides were collected from native populations across an east-west precipitation gradient in Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas, and then grown together in a common garden for over 20 years. Root and leaf samples were visually examined for fungal density. Because fungal endophytes confer drought-tolerant capabilities to their host plants, we expected to find higher densities of fungal endophytes in plants from western, drier regions, compared to plants from eastern, wetter regions. Results confirmed a negative correlation between endophyte densities in roots and precipitation at the genotype's original location (r = -0.21 P = 0.04). Our analyses reveal that the host genotype's origin along the precipitation gradient predicts the absolute abundance of symbionts in the root, but not the relative abundances of particular organisms or the overall community composition. Overall, these results demonstrate that genetic variation for plant-microbe interactions can reflect historical environment, and reinforce the importance of considering plant genotype in conservation and restoration work in tallgrass prairie ecosystems.

Integrated drought vulnerability and risk assessment for future scenarios: An indicator based analysis

The dynamic interplay between climate change and socioeconomic development has brought about significant changes in drought hazard, vulnerability, and risk within the global socioeconomic system. However, there is a prevailing lack of understanding about how these changes will manifest in an increasingly globalized economy under global warming. To address this knowledge gap, this study utilizes various climatic, geographical, and socioeconomic data from historical period and future projections to comprehensively map and assess the changes in global drought vulnerability and risk of population in the 2030s and 2050s under the SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585 scenarios. This study finds that the future population at risk of drought is projected to increase by 21.96 % - 25.95 % in the 2030s and 36.64 % - 45.40 % in the 2050s, driven by rapid population growth and substantial changes in drought hazard and vulnerability. This includes varying increases in drought hazard in approximately 58 % of global land area, alongside decreases in drought vulnerability in 50 % - 80 % of global land areas. Most arid and semi-arid regions, including Africa, Central Asia, West Asia, and Australia with less developed economies, are more susceptible to the adverse effects of climate change, leading to significant increases in future drought hazards, vulnerability, and risk, particularly under higher emission scenarios. In contrast, most humid and semi-humid regions exhibit varying degrees of drought vulnerability and risk of population across regions, despite the overall increasing drought hazard, with disproportionate impact of climate change and socioeconomic development. Specifically, projected increases in drought vulnerability and risk are observed in the Amazon, central and western U.S., while decreases are projected in the eastern part of China delimited by the Hu Line, southern India, Japan, Korea, most of Southeast Asia, northern Europe, and South America excluding the Amazon. The eastern U.S. is expected to experience reduced vulnerability but increased drought risk. This study can assist decision makers to develop targeted strategies and measures of adaptation and mitigation in an increasingly globalized economy under global warming.

A novel framework for investigating the mechanisms of climate change and anthropogenic activities on the evolution of hydrological drought

Climate change and anthropogenic activity are the primary drivers of water cycle changes. Hydrological droughts are caused by a shortage of surface and/or groundwater resources caused by climate change and/or anthropogenic activity. Existing hydrological models have primarily focused on simulating natural water cycle processes, while limited research has investigated the influence of anthropogenic activities on water cycle processes. This study proposes a novel framework that integrates a distributed hydrological model and an attribution analysis method to assess the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on hydrological drought The distributed dualistic water cycle model was applied to the Fuhe River Basin (FRB), and it generated a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient > 0.85 with a relative error of <5 %. Excluding the year with extreme drought conditions, our analysis revealed that climate change negatively impacted the average drought duration (-105.5 %) and intensity (-23.6 %) because of increasing precipitation. However, anthropogenic activities continued to contribute positively to the drought, accounting for 5.5 % and 123.6 % of the average drought duration and intensity, respectively, because of increased water consumption. When accounting for extreme drought years, our results suggested that climate change has contributed negatively to the average duration of drought (-113.2 %) but positively to its intensity (7.8 %). Further, we found that anthropogenic activities contributed positively to both the average drought duration and intensity (13.2 % and 92.2 %, respectively). While climate change can potentially mitigate hydrological drought in the FRB by boosting precipitation levels, its overall effect may exacerbate drought through the amplification of extreme climate events resulting from global climate change. Therefore, greater attention should be paid to the effects of extreme drought.

Compensatory response of ecosystem carbon-water cycling following severe drought in Southwestern China

Climate change has increased the frequency and length of droughts, but many uncertainties remain regarding the impacts of this aridification on terrestrial ecosystem function. Vegetation water use efficiency and carbon sequestration capacity are crucial determinants that both respond to and mediate the effects of drought. However, it is important to note that the consequences of drought on these processes can persist for years. A deeper exploration of these "drought legacy effects" will help improve our understanding of how climate change alter ecosystem carbon-water cycling. Here, we investigate the spatial patterns of drought legacy effects on remotely-sensed vegetation greenness (NDVI), net primary productivity (NPP) and water use efficiency (WUE) in southwestern China, a biodiversity hotspot that was impacted by an extreme drought in 2009-2010, with a particular focus on the tradeoff between WUE and NPP. Despite widespread negative drought legacy effects in NDVI (impacting 61.26 % of the study region), there was a general increase in NPP (58.68 %) and a decrease in WUE (67.53 %) in the year following drought (2011). This drought legacy effect was most evident in forests, while drought legacies in grasslands were less common. Drought legacies were also most apparent in relatively warm and humid areas. During the study period (2002 to 2018), we found that drought impacts on WUE also lagged behind changes in NPP by 1-2 years in forests, which highlights how drought legacies may manifest differently across ecosystem processes. Our study demonstrated that severe drought conditions may significantly affect the carbon sequestration capacity and water use efficiency of vegetation in southwestern China, and that forests may compensate for the detrimental effects of water stress by increasing water use and biomass growth after drought episodes.

Tracking canopy chlorophyll fluorescence with a low-cost light emitting diode platform

Chlorophyll fluorescence measured at the leaf scale through pulse amplitude modulation (PAM) has provided valuable insight into photosynthesis. At the canopy- and satellite-scale, solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) provides a method to estimate the photosynthetic activity of plants across spatiotemporal scales. However, retrieving SIF signal remotely requires instruments with high spectral resolution, making it difficult and often expensive to measure canopy-level steady-state chlorophyll fluorescence under natural sunlight. Considering this, we built a novel low-cost photodiode system that retrieves far-red chlorophyll fluorescence emission induced by a blue light emitting diode (LED) light source, for 2 h at night, above the canopy. Our objective was to determine if an active remote sensing-based night-time photodiode method could track changes in canopy-scale LED-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (LEDIF) during an imposed drought on a broadleaf evergreen shrub, Polygala myrtifolia. Far-red LEDIF (720-740 nm) was retrieved using low-cost photodiodes (LEDIFphotodiode) and validated against measurements from a hyperspectral spectroradiometer (LEDIFhyperspectral). To link the LEDIF signal with physiological drought response, we tracked stomatal conductance (gsw) using a porometer, two leaf-level vegetation indices-photochemical reflectance index and normalized difference vegetation index-to represent xanthophyll and chlorophyll pigment dynamics, respectively, and a PAM fluorimeter to measure photochemical and non-photochemical dynamics. Our results demonstrate a similar performance between the photodiode and hyperspectral retrievals of LEDIF (R2 = 0.77). Furthermore, LEDIFphotodiode closely tracked drought responses associated with a decrease in photochemical quenching (R2 = 0.69), Fv/Fm (R2 = 0.59) and leaf-level photochemical reflectance index (R2 = 0.59). Therefore, the low-cost LEDIFphotodiode approach has the potential to be a meaningful indicator of photosynthetic activity at spatial scales greater than an individual leaf and over time.

Environmental Conditions Modulate Plant Virus Vertical Transmission and Survival of Infected Seeds

Seed transmission is a major mode for plant virus persistence and dispersal, as it allows for virus survival within the seed in unfavorable conditions and facilitates spread when they become more favorable. To access these benefits, viruses require infected seeds to remain viable and germinate in altered environmental conditions, which may also be advantageous for the plant. However, how environmental conditions and virus infection affect seed viability, and whether these effects modulate seed transmission rate and plant fitness, is unknown. To address these questions, we utilized turnip mosaic virus, cucumber mosaic virus, and Arabidopsis thaliana as model systems. Using seeds from plants infected by these viruses, we analyzed seed germination rates, as a proxy of seed viability, and virus seed transmission rate under standard and altered temperature, CO2, and light intensity. With these data, we developed and parameterized a mathematical epidemiological model to explore the consequences of the observed alterations on virus prevalence and persistence. Altered conditions generally reduced overall seed viability and increased virus transmission rate compared with standard conditions, which indicated that under environmental stress, infected seeds are more viable. Hence, virus presence may be beneficial for the host. Subsequent simulations predicted that enhanced viability of infected seeds and higher virus transmission rate may increase virus prevalence and persistence in the host population under altered conditions. This work provides novel information on the influence of the environment in plant virus epidemics. [Formula: see text] Copyright © 2023 The Author(s). This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license.

Substantial increase in abrupt shifts between drought and flood events in China based on observations and model simulations

Drought-flood abrupt alternation (DFAA) refers to the rapid transformation between droughts and floods, posing serious threats to ecological security, food production, and human safety. Previous studies have insufficiently investigated DFAA events at large regional scales using high-resolution observations and model simulations. In this study, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index was used to construct the DFAA magnitude index, which considers the asymmetric effects of drought and flood alternations. Four types of DFAA events were then investigated using high-resolution station observations and NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 model simulations. The results showed that hotspot areas of drought-flood and flood-drought alternation events were mainly in the northern and eastern parts of China, while the hotspot areas of drought-flood-drought and flood-drought-flood alternation events were obviously smaller than those of drought-flood and flood-drought alternation events. Drought-flood, flood-drought, and drought-flood-drought alternation events showed significant upward trends at rates of 0.075, 0.057, and 0.051 events/decade, respectively, and these increases were attributed to significant increases in moderate, severe, and extreme events across China during 1981-2020. Generally, the total number of DFAA events above moderate grade in the northern, central, and some areas in the southern parts of China increased obviously (>50 %) during 2001-2020 compared to 1981-2000. NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 can reasonably represent the multi-year averages and long-term trends of precipitation, temperature, and DFAA events in China. Except for the flood-drought-flood alternation events, the other three types of DFAA events showed significant increasing trends in the future, with higher rates under the SSP585 scenario than under the SSP245 scenario (e.g., drought-flood alternation events at rates of 0.033 and 0.046 events/decade under SSP245 and SSP585, respectively, during 1981-2100). DFAA events above the moderate grade were predicted to increase significantly in both 2032-2065 and 2066-2099 compared to 1981-2014, especially in northern China for the 2066-2099 under the SSP585 scenario.

Modeling, challenges, and strategies for understanding impacts of climate extremes (droughts and floods) on water quality in Asia: A review

The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme climate events are among the most expected and recognized consequences of climate change. Prediction of water quality parameters becomes more challenging with these extremes since water quality is strongly related to hydro-meteorological conditions and is particularly sensitive to climate change. The evidence linking the influence of hydro-meteorological factors on water quality provides insights into future climatic extremes. Despite recent breakthroughs in water quality modeling and evaluations of climate change's impact on water quality, climate extreme informed water quality modeling methodologies remain restricted. This review aims to summarize the causal mechanisms across climate extremes considering water quality parameters and Asian water quality modeling methods associated with climate extremes, such as floods and droughts. In this review, we (1) identify current scientific approaches to water quality modeling and prediction in the context of flood and drought assessment, (2) discuss the challenges and impediments, and (3) propose potential solutions to these challenges to improve understanding of the impact of climate extremes on water quality and mitigate their negative impacts. This study emphasizes that one crucial step toward enhancing our aquatic ecosystems is by comprehending the connections between climate extreme events and water quality through collective efforts. The connections between the climate indices and water quality indicators were demonstrated to better understand the link between climate extremes and water quality for a selected watershed basin.

Can animals tune tissue mechanics in response to changing environments caused by anthropogenic impacts?

Anthropogenic climate change and pollution are impacting environments across the globe. This Review summarises the potential impact of such anthropogenic effects on animal tissue mechanics, given the consequences for animal locomotor performance and behaviour. More specifically, in light of current literature, this Review focuses on evaluating the acute and chronic effects of temperature on the mechanical function of muscle tissues. For ectotherms, maximal muscle performance typically occurs at temperatures approximating the natural environment of the species. However, species vary in their ability to acclimate to chronic changes in temperature, which is likely to have longer-term effects on species range. Some species undergo periods of dormancy to avoid extreme temperature or drought. Whilst the skeletal muscle of such species generally appears to be adapted to minimise muscle atrophy and maintain performance for emergence from dormancy, the increased occurrence of extreme climatic conditions may reduce the survival of individuals in such environments. This Review also considers the likely impact of anthropogenic pollutants, such as hormones and heavy metals, on animal tissue mechanics, noting the relative paucity of literature directly investigating this key area. Future work needs to determine the direct effects of anthropogenic environmental changes on animal tissues and related changes in locomotor performance and behaviour, including accounting for currently unknown interactions between environmental factors, e.g. temperature and pollutants.

Physiological and Transcriptomic Analyses of the Effects of Exogenous Lauric Acid on Drought Resistance in Peach (Prunus persica (L.) Batsch)

Peach (Prunus persica (L.) Batsch) is a fruit tree of economic and nutritional importance, but it is very sensitive to drought stress, which affects its growth to a great extent. Lauric acid (LA) is a fatty acid produced in plants and associated with the response to abiotic stress, but the underlying mechanism remains unclear. In this study, physiological analysis showed that 50 ppm LA pretreatment under drought stress could alleviate the growth of peach seedlings. LA inhibits the degradation of photosynthetic pigments and the closing of pores under drought stress, increasing the photosynthetic rate. LA also reduces the content of O₂^-, H₂O₂, and MDA under drought stress; our results were confirmed by Evans Blue, nitroblue tetrazolium (NBT), and DAB(3,3-diaminobenzidine) staining experiments. It may be that, by directly removing reactive oxygen species (ROS) and improving enzyme activity, i.e., catalase (CAT) activity, peroxidase (POD) activity, superoxide dismutase (SOD) activity, and ascorbate peroxidase (APX) activity, the damage caused by reactive oxygen species to peach seedlings is reduced. Peach seedlings treated with LA showed a significant increase in osmoregulatory substances compared with those subjected to drought stress, thereby regulating osmoregulatory balance and reducing damage. RNA-Seq analysis identified 1876 DEGs (differentially expressed genes) in untreated and LA-pretreated plants under drought stress. In-depth analysis of these DEGs showed that, under drought stress, LA regulates the expression of genes related to plant-pathogen interaction, phenylpropanoid biosynthesis, the MAPK signaling pathway, cyanoamino acid metabolism, and sesquiterpenoid and triterpenoid biosynthesis. In addition, LA may activate the Ca²⁺ signaling pathway by increasing the expressions of CNGC, CAM/CML, and CPDK family genes, thereby improving the drought resistance of peaches. In summary, via physiological and transcriptome analyses, the mechanism of action of LA in drought resistance has been revealed. Our research results provide new insights into the molecular regulatory mechanism of the LA-mediated drought resistance of peach trees.

Metal distribution behavior based on soil aggregate size in a post-restoration coastal mining area

Soil aggregate size plays an important role in controlling the distribution and transport of metals. Metals immobilized in soil particles will pose potential risks through production/sink flow and infiltration. This study explored the distribution behavior of metals based on soil aggregate size in a restored coastal mining area by establishing Structural Equation Model (SEM) and column experiments. The results showed that hydrological factors and a high degree of weathering accelerated the dissolution of metals from the mine, the desorption of Wa-NH₄⁺-N, the release of F^-, and the leaching of NO₃^-. Driven by soil properties, natural factors, and anthropogenic activities, the total metal content (Total_metal) of Cr, Ni, Zn, Mn, and As showed significant spatial heterogeneity compared to Cd, Co, Cu, and Pb. The geochemical fraction of metals (Geo_metal) indicated that Cd, Co, Pb, Zn, As, and Cu are mainly present in iron‑manganese oxidation bound, organically bound, and residual fractions. The results of SEM showed that the physicochemical properties, Wa-NH₄⁺-N, nitrate nitrogen, and inorganic anions of the soil could explain 69.1 %, 76.4 %, 97.1 %, and 80.0 % of the variation in K_d-Mn, K_d-Pb, K_d-Ni, and K_d-Zn, respectively. While K_d-Cd, K_d-Cu, and K_d-Cr could be predicted by the Total_metal, but the Geo_metal seemed to have little influence on metal K_d. The results of column experiments showed that macroaggregates (>0.25 mm) significantly affected the distribution of Co, Cr, Cu, Mn, Ni, Pb, and Zn in the topsoil. The severe disruption of soil aggregate structure resulted in small fluctuations of anthropogenic Cu, Mn, Pb, Zn, and As in different layers of deep soil. In addition, mineral composition in >0.15 mm particle size was more likely to change. Overall, the hydrological cycle of coastal mines increases the uncertainty of their response to risk. Our study provides a basis for future strategies for priority control and risk prevention.

Potential of growth-promoting bacteria in maize (Zea mays L.) varies according to soil moisture

Climate change has caused irregularities in water distribution, which affect the soil drying-wetting cycle and the development of economically important agricultural crops. Therefore, the use of plant growth-promoting bacteria (PGPB) emerges as an efficient strategy to mitigate negative impacts on crop yield. We hypothesized that the use of PGPB (in consortium or not) had potential to promote maize (Zea mays L.) growth under a soil moisture gradient in both non-sterile and sterile soils. Thirty PGPB strains were characterized for direct plant growth-promotion and drought tolerance induction mechanisms and were used in two independent experiments. Four soil water contents were used to simulate a severe drought (30% of field capacity [FC]), moderate drought (50% of FC), no drought (80% of FC) and, finally, a water gradient comprising the three mentioned soil water contents (80%, 50%, and 30% of FC). Two bacteria strains (BS28-7 Arthrobacter sp. and BS43 Streptomyces alboflavus), in addition to three consortia (BC2, BC4 and BCV) stood out in maize growth performance in experiment 1 and were used in experiment 2. Overall, under moderate drought, inoculation with BS43 surpassed the control treatment in root dry mass and nutrient uptake. Considering the water gradient treatment (80-50-30% of FC), the greatest total biomass was found in the uninoculated treatment when compared to BS28-7, BC2, and BCV. The greatest development of Z. mays L. was only observed under constant water stress conditions in the presence of PGPB. This is the first report that demonstrated the negative effect of individual inoculation of Arthrobacter sp. and the consortium of this strain with Streptomyces alboflavus on the growth of Z. mays L. based on a soil moisture gradient; however, future studies are needed for further validation.

Oceanic and terrestrial origin of precipitation over 50 major world river basins: Implications for the occurrence of drought

The terrestrial and oceanic origins of precipitation over 50 major river basins worldwide were investigated for the period 1980-2018. For this purpose, we used a Lagrangian approximation that calculates the humidity that results in precipitation from the entire ocean area (ocean component of the precipitation, PLO) and the entire land area (land component, PLT) as well as the sum of both components (Lagrangian precipitation, PL). PL and its components were highly correlated with precipitation over the basins, where PLT accounted for >50 % of the PL in most of them. This confirmed the importance assigned by previous studies to terrestrial recycling of precipitation and moisture transport within the continents. However, the amount of PLO in almost all North American river basins was highlighted. The assessment of drought conditions through the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at a temporal scale of 1- and 3-months revealed the number of drought episodes that affected each river basin, especially the Amazon, Congo, and Nile, because of the lower number of episodes but higher average severity and duration. A direct relationship between the severity of drought episodes and the respective severity computed on the oceanic and terrestrial SPI series was also found for the majority of basins. This highlights the influence of the severity of the SPI of oceanic origin for most basins in North America. However, for certain basins, we found an inverse relationship between the severity of drought and the associated severity according to the SPI of oceanic or terrestrial origin, thus highlighting the principal drought attribution. Additionally, a copula analysis provided new information that illustrates the estimated conditional probability of drought for each river basin in relation to the occurrence of drought conditions of oceanic or terrestrial origin, which revealed the possible main driver of drought severity in each river basin.

Drought impacts on hydrology and water quality under climate change

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted that droughts are projected to affect global hydrology and water quality in varying ways, resulting in a considerable challenge to water availability for society, environment, and ecosystems. This study employed the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to evaluate how drought affects hydrology and water quality in the Miyun Reservoir watershed, coupled with bias-corrected climate projections in the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario, accommodating the intercoupling effects of precipitation shifts and rising temperatures. The standardized precipitation index (SPI), standardized runoff index (SRI), and standardized soil moisture index (SSWI) were used to characterize meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural droughts that occur in the different phases in the hydrological cycle. Climate change had the most significant impact on agricultural drought. SSWI were projected to considerably increase in intensity, frequency, and duration in most subbasins by up to 15 %, 55 %, and 45 %, respectively, and showed a strong correlation with meteorological and hydrological droughts (correlation coefficients r = 0.54, 0.57, and 0.60 with SPI for the baseline, near future and far future periods, and 0.91, 0.87, and 0.89 with SRI for the three periods, respectively). Hydrological components, sediment export, and nutrient loss were highly correlated with changes in drought indexes, with r ranging between -0.68 and 0.34 in the near future period and -0.62 and 0.53 in the far future period. Drought conditions of surface runoff and soil water dominated the changes in sediment export, and hydrological drought was the major cause for reduced nutrient loads. In addition to drought impacts, the synergistic effects of increasing precipitation and rising temperature led to a certain degree of increase in sediment and nutrient exports. The results of this study emphasize the need to enhance the resilience of watershed systems to the predicted increases in the intensity, frequency, and duration of droughts.

Effects of the duration of post-silking drought on the starch physicochemical properties of waxy maize

BACKGROUND

Drought is a major abiotic stress that affects the physicochemical properties of cereal starch. However, quantitative information on the effects of drought duration on the starch quality of waxy maize, a special maize-type starch composed of nearly pure amylopectin, has been lacking. The effects of post-silking drought duration 1-10 (DS10), 1-20 (DS20), and 1-30 (DS30) days after pollination on the physicochemical properties of starch were assessed from 2019 to 2020 using two waxy maize hybrids as materials.

RESULTS

With extending drought duration, the starch granule size and average amylopectin chain length of Jingkenuo2000 (JKN2000) gradually increased, with those of Suyunuo5 (SYN5) being the highest for DS20, followed by DS30. All drought durations decreased the degree of branching of both hybrids, with the lowest value obtained for DS30 and DS20 in JKN2000 and SYN5, respectively. Relative crystallinity increased for DS30 in both hybrids but its responses for DS10 and DS20 differed. Pasting viscosities and gelatinization enthalpy were decreased and retrogradation percentage was increased by drought stress. The lowest pasting viscosities were observed for DS30, and the highest retrogradation percentage was found for DS10 in general.

CONCLUSION

Post-silking drought led to the pasting and retrogradation properties deteriorating, with decreased pasting viscosities and increased retrogradation percentage. The decrease in viscosity was caused by enlarged granules. Meanwhile, the increased proportion of amylopectin chains with a degree of polymerization of 25-36 resulted in lower viscosity and higher retrogradation. © 2022 Society of Chemical Industry.

Cross-sectoral impacts of the 2018-2019 Central European drought and climate resilience in the German part of the Elbe River basin

The 2018-2019 Central European drought was probably the most extreme in Germany since the early sixteenth century. We assess the multiple consequences of the drought for natural systems, the economy and human health in the German part of the Elbe River basin, an area of 97,175 km² including the cities of Berlin and Hamburg and contributing about 18% to the German GDP. We employ meteorological, hydrological and socio-economic data to build a comprehensive picture of the drought severity, its multiple effects and cross-sectoral consequences in the basin. Time series of different drought indices illustrate the severity of the 2018-2019 drought and how it progressed from meteorological water deficits via soil water depletion towards low groundwater levels and river runoff, and losses in vegetation productivity. The event resulted in severe production losses in agriculture (minus 20-40% for staple crops) and forestry (especially through forced logging of damaged wood: 25.1 million tons in 2018-2020 compared to only 3.4 million tons in 2015-2017), while other economic sectors remained largely unaffected. However, there is no guarantee that this socio-economic stability will be sustained in future drought events; this is discussed in the light of 2022, another dry year holding the potential for a compound crisis. Given the increased probability for more intense and long-lasting droughts in most parts of Europe, this example of actual cross-sectoral drought impacts will be relevant for drought awareness and preparation planning in other regions.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10113-023-02032-3.

Assessing the impact of drought-land cover change on global vegetation greenness and productivity

Drought-land cover change (D-LCC) is considered to be an important stress factor that affects vegetation greenness and productivity (VG&P) in global terrestrial ecosystems. Understanding the effects of D-LCC on VG&P benefits the development of terrestrial ecosystem models and the prediction of ecosystem evolution. However, till today, the mechanism remains underexploited. In this study, based on the Theil-Sen median estimator and Mann-Kendall test, Hurst exponent evaluation and rescaled range analysis (R/S), Pearson and Partial correlation coefficient analyses, we explore the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics and future trends of Leaf area index (LAI), Net primary productivity (NPP), Solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF), Standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), Soil moisture (SM), Land cover type (LC), and the impact mechanism of D-LCC on global VG&P. Our results provide four major insights. First, three independent satellite observations consistently indicate that the world is experiencing an increasing trend of VG&P: LAI (17.69 %), NPP (20.32 %) and SIF (16.46 %). Nonetheless, productivity-reducing trends are unfolding in some tropical regions, notably the Amazon rainforest and the Congo basin. Second, from 2001 to 2020, the frequency, severity, duration, and scope of global droughts have been increasing. Third, the impact of land cover change on global VG&P is region-dependent. Finally, our results indicate that the continuous growth of VG&P in the global vegetation area is likely to become more difficult to maintain.

Ecophysiological responses of Nothofagus obliqua forests to recent climate drying across the Mediterranean-Temperate biome transition in south-central Chile

The forests of south-central Chile are facing a drying climate and a megadrought that started in 2010. This study addressed the physiological responses of five Nothofagus obliqua stands across the Mediterranean-Temperate gradient (35.9 ° -40.3° S) using carbon isotope discrimination (Δ¹³ C) and intrinsic water use efficiency (iWUE) in tree rings during 1967-2017. Moreover, δ¹⁸O was evaluated in the northernmost site to better understand the effects of the megadrought in this drier location. These forests have become more efficient in their use of water. However, trees from the densest stand are discriminating more against ¹³C, probably due to reduced photosynthetic rates associated with increasing competition. The strongest associations between climate and Δ¹³C were found in the northernmost stand, suggesting that warmer and drier conditions could have reduced ¹³C discrimination. Tree growth in this site has not decreased, and δ¹⁸O was negatively related to annual rainfall. However, a shift in this relationship was found since 2007, when both precipitation and δ¹⁸O decreased, while correlations between δ¹⁸O and growth increased. This implies that tree growth and δ¹⁸O are coupled in recent years, but precipitation is not the cause, suggesting that trees probably changed their water source to deeper and more depleted pools. Our research demonstrates that forests are not reducing their growth in central Chile, mainly due to a shift towards the use of deeper water sources. Despite a common climate trend across the gradient, there is a non-uniform response of N. obliqua forests to climate drying, being their response site specific. Keywords: Tree rings, stable isotopes, tree physiology, climate gradient, megadrought, climate change.

Effects of chilling on the photosynthetic performance of the CAM orchid Phalaenopsis

INTRODUCTION

Crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) is one of the three main metabolic adaptations for CO₂ fixation found in plants. A striking feature for these plants is nocturnal carbon fixation and diurnal decarboxylation of malic acid to feed Rubisco with CO₂ behind closed stomata, thereby saving considerable amounts of water. Compared to the effects of high temperatures, drought, and light, much less information is available about the effects of chilling temperatures on CAM plants. In addition a lot of CAM ornamentals are grown in heated greenhouses, urging for a deeper understanding about the physiological responses to chilling in order to increase sustainability in the horticultural sector.

METHODS

The present study focuses on the impact of chilling temperatures (10°C) for 3 weeks on the photosynthetic performance of the obligate CAM orchid Phalaenopsis 'Edessa'. Detailed assessments of the light reactions were performed by analyzing chlorophyll a fluorescence induction (OJIP) parameters and the carbon fixation reactions by measuring diel leaf gas exchange and diel metabolite patterns.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Results showed that chilling already affected the light reactions after 24h. Whilst the potential efficiency of photosystem II (PSII) (F_v/F_m) was not yet influenced, a massive decrease in the performance index (PI_abs) was noticed. This decrease did not depict an overall downregulation of PSII related energy fluxes since energy absorption and dissipation remained uninfluenced whilst the trapped energy and reduction flux were upregulated. This might point to the presence of short-term adaptation mechanisms to chilling stress. However, in the longer term the electron transport chain from PSII to PSI was affected, impacting both ATP and NADPH provision. To avoid over-excitation and photodamage plants showed a massive increase in thermal dissipation. These considerations are also in line with carbon fixation data showing initial signs of cold adaptation by achieving comparable Rubisco activity compared to unstressed plants but increasing daytime stomatal opening in order to capture a higher proportion of CO₂ during daytime. However, in accordance with the light reactions data, Rubisco activity declined and stomatal conductance and CO₂ uptake diminished to near zero levels after 3 weeks, indicating that plants were not successful in cold acclimation on the longer term.

Impacts of climate change and evapotranspiration on shrinkage of Aral Sea

The massive desiccation of the Aral Sea, the fourth largest lake in the world, has led to severe ecological problems, expansion of cropland was thought to be the main factor driving that shrinkage. But this study performed a long-term land cover and use change assessment for Aral Sea Basin (ASB) to show that the cropland has stopped expanding in 2000, of which the cropland in the ASB plain area has decreased significantly (-140 km²/year) from 2001 to 2019. By contrast, this study finds the hydrological cycle in the ASB has intensified through a spatial and temporal scale approach based on Earth observation. Specifically, there is a 7.21 % (+304.56 × 10⁸ m³) increase in annual total precipitation and a 10.13 % (+376.21 × 10⁸ m³) increase in annual total actual evapotranspiration (AET) for the whole ASB during 1980-2019. In particular, the total annual AET in the ASB plain area has increased by 37.81 % (+718.92 × 10⁸ m³), which almost depletes the water that should have flowed into the Aral Sea. Therefore, the Aral Sea shrank by 5625 × 10⁸ m³ (or 42,944.32km²) from 1980 to 2019. Changing climate and increasing AET have accelerated the desiccation of the Aral Sea, and the expansion of cropland is no longer the main factor of that shrinkage. After more water was conserved in the ASB plain area, evapotranspiration plays a more vital role in the Aral Sea shrinkage. Reducing AET and unproductive water losses are key initiatives in future projects to save the Aral Sea. This study explores the causes of Aral Sea shrinkage from an integrated perspective of climate-land-water-ecological change across the ASB, bridging the limitations of previous studies that have focused on Aral Sea waters and subbasins.

Agricultural Production Space Suitability in China: Spatial Pattern, Influencing Factors and Optimization Strategies

The paper uses the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), spatial autocorrelation analysis, and geographic detectors to reveal the spatial pattern of agricultural production space suitability in China, explores the impact mechanism of agricultural production development, and explores the optimization and promotion strategies for the development of regional agricultural production in various regions in the future. The results show that the resource and environmental carrying capacity, and the agricultural production space suitability under the direction of China's agricultural production function, show a 'polarization' development trend in space, with high levels in the southeast and low levels in the northwest, with significant spatial agglomeration. The factors influencing the suitability of agricultural production have significant spatial differentiation laws in the Nine Agricultural Areas of China. Climate change factors are the dominant factors affecting the areas with poor resource endowment and traditional agricultural areas in the northwest. Factors that reflect the level of urbanization are the main factors that affect the agricultural production space suitability in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and South China. China's agricultural production spatial suitability areas can be divided into nine types of suitable geographical areas. In the future, the impacts of climate change and urbanization on agricultural production space should be considered, and strategies should be taken, according to local conditions, in different regions to improve their suitability.

Wildfires disproportionately affected jaguars in the Pantanal

The Pantanal wetland harbours the second largest population of jaguars in the world. Alongside climate and land-use changes, the recent mega-fires in the Pantanal may pose a threat to the jaguars' long-term survival. To put these growing threats into perspective, we addressed the reach and intensity of fires that have affected jaguar conservation in the Pantanal ecoregion over the last 16 years. The 2020 fires were the most severe in the annual series, burned 31% of the Pantanal and affected 45% of the estimated jaguar population (87% of these in Brazil); 79% of the home range areas, and 54% of the protected areas within home ranges. Fires consumed core habitats and injured several jaguars, the Pantanal's apex predator. Displacement, hunger, dehydration, territorial defence, and lower fecundity are among the impacts that may affect the abundance of the species. These impacts are likely to affect other less mobile species and, therefore, the ecological stability of the region. A solution to prevent the recurrence of mega-fires lies in combating the anthropogenic causes that intensify drought conditions, such as implementing actions to protect springs, increasing the number and area of protected areas, regulating fire use, and allocating fire brigades before dry seasons.

Changes in the spatiotemporal patterns of dry/wet abrupt alternation frequency, duration, and severity in Mainland China, 1980-2019

Changes in extreme events have received increasing attention in the context of climate change. Extreme changes in wet and dry events due to changes in meteorological elements, such as the spatial and temporal redistribution of precipitation and temperature increases, are extreme weather events that have attracted much attention in recent years. In contrast, there is a relative lack of research on extreme compound events that focuses on a transition between wet and dry spells in adjacent months. This paper provides maps of the frequency, duration, and severity of national-scale dry wet abrupt alternation (DWAA) events for 1980-1999 and 2000-2019, aiming to obtain information regarding events in the hotspot areas of DWAA in China during the past four decades in order to analyze their change patterns. This paper performs station-based standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) calculations to characterize local wet and dry spells based on meteorological observations provided by the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) since 1980 with regional analyses based on seven geographic divisions of China. Our finding explicitly discloses the "more-less-more" DWAA variation pattern from North to South China. Additionally, the changes in frequency, duration, and severity in the different regions are revealed. The frequency, duration, and severity of DW increased from 5.08 to 6.74, 17.71 to 24.62, and 12.51 to 17.01, respectively, an increase of 32.53%, 39.04% and 36.01%, while the corresponding WD only increased by 9.45%, 15.22% and 13.51%. In addition, events with a higher severity of DWAA are prone to appear in most regions due to the increasing interval between heavy rainfall and the increase in precipitation under global warming.

A resilience sensing system for the biosphere

We are in a climate and ecological emergency, where climate change and direct anthropogenic interference with the biosphere are risking abrupt and/or irreversible changes that threaten our life-support systems. Efforts are underway to increase the resilience of some ecosystems that are under threat, yet collective awareness and action are modest at best. Here, we highlight the potential for a biosphere resilience sensing system to make it easier to see where things are going wrong, and to see whether deliberate efforts to make things better are working. We focus on global resilience sensing of the terrestrial biosphere at high spatial and temporal resolution through satellite remote sensing, utilizing the generic mathematical behaviour of complex systems-loss of resilience corresponds to slower recovery from perturbations, gain of resilience equates to faster recovery. We consider what subset of biosphere resilience remote sensing can monitor, critically reviewing existing studies. Then we present illustrative, global results for vegetation resilience and trends in resilience over the last 20 years, from both satellite data and model simulations. We close by discussing how resilience sensing nested across global, biome-ecoregion, and local ecosystem scales could aid management and governance at these different scales, and identify priorities for further work. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological complexity and the biosphere: the next 30 years'.

Total Mercury Mass Load from the Paglia-Tiber River System: The Contribution to Mediterranean Sea Hg Budget

The Mediterranean Sea is characterized by a marked mercury (Hg) geochemical anomaly, arising in part from large Hg deposits. Mercury mass loads discharged from the Monte Amiata mining district (Central Italy) to the Mediterranean Sea through the Paglia–Tiber River system were estimated. Data from two seasons showed that up to 40 kg year⁻¹ of Hg are drained to Tiber River and finally to the Mediterranean Sea. The mercury mass loads varied in different seasons, from 3 mg day⁻¹ in the upper section of Paglia River in November to 42 g day⁻¹ before the confluence with Tiber River in June. Along Tiber River, up to 15 ng L⁻¹ of the total Hg found at a site after Rome showed that Hg can be discharged to the sea. The Alviano reservoir along Tiber River acts as a temporary trap for Hg-rich particulate, while dam operations may promote Hg release (up to 223 g day⁻¹). The combination of hydrologic factors controlling Hg transport, the torrential regime in the upper catchment of Paglia River, the waterway steepness, together with Hg-contaminated legacy sediments in the Paglia River floodplain, make the Paglia–Tiber River system a long-lasting intermittent source of Hg to Tiber River and the Mediterranean Sea.

Making waves: Pulling the plug-Climate change effects will turn gaining into losing streams with detrimental effects on groundwater quality

In many parts of the world, climate change has already caused a decline in groundwater recharge, whereas groundwater demand for drinking water production and irrigation continues to increase. In such regions, groundwater tables are steadily declining with major consequences for groundwater-surface water interactions. Predominantly gaining streams that rely on discharge of groundwater from the adjacent aquifer turn into predominantly losing streams whose water seeps into the underground. This reversal of groundwater-surface water interactions is associated with an increase of low river flows, drying of stream beds, and a switch of lotic ecosystems from perennial to intermittent, with consequences for fluvial and groundwater dependent ecosystems. Moreover, water infiltrating from rivers and streams can carry a complex mix of contaminants. Accordingly, the diversity and concentrations of compounds detected in groundwater has been increasing over the past decades. During low flow, stream and river discharge may consist mainly of treated wastewater. In losing stream systems, this contaminated water seeps into the adjoining aquifers. This threatens both ecosystems as well as drinking and irrigation water quality. Climate change is therefore severely altering landscape water balances, with groundwater-surface water-interactions having reached a tipping point in many cases. Current model projections harbor huge uncertainties and scientific evidence for these tipping points remains very limited. In particular, quantitative data on groundwater-surface water-interactions are scarce both on the local and the catchment scale. The result is poor public or political awareness, and appropriate management measures await implementation.

A comprehensive drought monitoring method integrating multi-source data

Droughts are the most expensive natural disasters on the planet. As a result of climate change and human activities, the incidence and impact of drought have grown in China. Timely and effective monitoring of drought is crucial for water resource management, drought mitigation, and national food security. In this study, we constructed a comprehensive drought index (YCDI) suitable for the Yellow River Basin using principal component analysis and the entropy weight-AHP method, which integrated a standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index (scPDSI), vegetation condition index (VCI), and standardized water storage index (SWSI). SWSI is calculated by the terrestrial water storage anomaly (TWSA), which can more comprehensively reflect the impact of surface water resources on drought (as compared with soil moisture-based indexes). The study results showed that: (1) compared with single drought index, YCDI has stronger ability to monitor drought process. In terms of time scale and drought degree, the monitoring results based on YCDI were similar with data presented in the China Flood and Drought Bulletin and Meteorological Drought Yearbook, reaching ~87% and ~69%, respectively. The correlation between drought intensity and crop harvest area was 0.56. (2) By the combined analysis of the Mann-Kendall test and Moving T test, it was found that the abrupt change of YCDI index at the time of 2009, mainly due to the precipitation in 2009 reached the lowest value in the past 30 years in northern China and extreme high temperature weather. (3) The YCDI of Henan and Shandong provinces in the middle and lower reaches of the basin decreased more significantly, with the maximum value reaching 0.097/yr, while the index in the upper reaches showed an increasing trend with the maximum rate of 0.096/yr. (4) The frequency of mild drought, moderate drought, severe drought and extreme drought in the Yellow River basin during the study period was 15.84%, 12.52%, 4.03% and 0.97%, respectively. Among them, the highest frequency of droughts occurred in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia and central Shaanxi provinces. Drought causation in the Yellow River basin is more influenced by human activities than climate change in the middle and lower reaches, while climate change is the main factor in the upper reaches. Overall, YCDI is a reliable indicator for monitoring the spatial and temporal evolution of drought in the Yellow River basin, and it can be used for monitoring soil moisture changes and vegetation dynamics, which can provide scientific guidance for regional drought governance.

Associations between long-term drought and diarrhea among children under five in low- and middle-income countries

Climate change is projected to intensify drought conditions, which may increase the risk of diarrheal diseases in children. We constructed log-binomial generalized linear mixed models to examine the association between diarrhea risk, ascertained from global-scale nationally representative Demographic and Health Surveys, and drought, represented by the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index, among children under five in 51 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Exposure to 6-month mild or severe drought was associated with an increased diarrhea risk of 5% (95% confidence interval 3-7%) or 8% (5-11%), respectively. The association was stronger among children living in a household that needed longer time to collect water or had no access to water or soap/detergent for handwashing. The association for 24-month drought was strong in dry zones but weak or null in tropical or temperate zones, whereas that for 6-month drought was only observed in tropical or temperate zones. In this work we quantify the associations between exposure to long-term drought and elevated diarrhea risk among children under five in LMICs and suggest that the risk could be reduced through improved water, sanitation, and hygiene practices, made more urgent by the likely increase in drought due to climate change.

The sensitivity of aquatic microbial communities to a complex agricultural contaminant depends on previous drought conditions

In intermittent rivers, which represent a prominent part of worldwide rivers, aquatic organisms are exposed to sequential disturbances including flow cessation, potentially associated with water warming, desiccation process and flow resumption. At flow resumption, pollutants stored in soil and washed by rainfalls can reach fresh waters. The interaction between contamination and river intermittency is poorly understood. In this study, we aimed at understanding in what extent the intensity of dry period combined or not to water warming drives the sensitivity of aquatic communities to a complex agricultural run-off (ARO) during rewetting. Phototrophic biofilms, at the basis of freshwater food webs, were chosen as a model of community. Biofilms grown in laboratory were first exposed to a disturbance crossing two temperature conditions (not warmed, 22°C or warmed, 32°C) and three dry periods (no drying, short (3 days), or long (3 months)). Then they were exposed to a chemical mix of nitrates, copper and 3 pesticides at 6 gradual concentrations. Various descriptors associated with biofilm structure and function were assessed one week after ARO addition. When undisturbed biofilms were exposed to ARO, they shifted toward a more heterotrophic state as they lost algal richness and diversity, and gross primary production tended to decrease. Warming alone only slightly modified the sensitivity of biofilms to ARO, with lower effects on algal richness and a trend to increase the effect on gross primary production. In contrast, the association of warming and a dry period strongly modified the sensitivity to ARO, certainly due to the selection of generalist species and/or physiological acclimation inducted by the first disturbance. This study emphasizes the importance of considering water intermittency in the management of the ecological risk of chemicals in aquatic ecosystems.

Analysis of Future Meteorological Drought Changes in the Yellow River Basin under Climate Change

The Yellow River Basin is an important economic belt and key ecological reservation area in China. In the context of global warming, it is of great significance to project the drought disaster risk for ensuring water security and improving water resources management measures in practice. Based on the five Global Climate Models (GCMs) projections under three scenarios of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) (SSP126, SSP245, SSP585) released in the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), this study analyzed the characteristics of meteorological drought in the Yellow River Basin in combination with SPEI indicators over 2015–2100. The result indicated that: (1) The GCMs from CMIP6 after bias correction performed better in reproducing the spatial and temporal variation of precipitation. The precipitation in the Yellow River Basin may exhibit increase trends from 2015 to 2100, especially under the SSP585 scenario. (2) The characteristics of meteorological drought in the Yellow River Basin varied from different combination scenarios. Under the SSP126 scenario, the meteorological drought will gradually intensify from 2040 to 2099, while the drought intensity under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios will likely be higher than SSP126. (3) The spatial variation of meteorological drought in the Yellow River Basin is heterogeneous and uncertain in different combination scenarios and periods. The drought tendency in the Loess Plateau will increase significantly in the future, and the drought frequency and duration in the main water conservation areas of the Yellow River Basin was projected to increase.

Hydrological Drought Assessment in a Small Lowland Catchment in Croatia

Hydrological drought is critical from both water management and ecological perspectives. Depending on its hydrological and physical features, the resilience level of a catchment to groundwater drought can differ from that of meteorological drought. This study presents a comparison of hydrological and meteorological drought indices based on groundwater levels from 1987 to 2018. A small catchment area in Croatia, consisting of two sub-catchments with a continental climate and minimum land-use changes during the observed period, was studied. The first analysis was made on a comparison of standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The results showed their very high correlation. The correlation between the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized groundwater index (SGI) of different time scales (1, 3, 6, 12, 24 and 48 months) showed different values, but had the highest value in the longest time scale, 48 months, for all observation wells. Nevertheless, the behavior of the SPI and groundwater levels (GW) correlation showed results more related to physical catchment characteristics. The results showed that groundwater drought indices, such as SGI, should be applied judiciously because of their sensitivity to geographical, geomorphological, and topographical catchment characteristics, even in small catchment areas.