Regional trade agreement burdens global carbon emissions mitigation

How do FDI and tax competition of local governments affect PM2.5 rebound effects? Evidence from China

Rebound effects of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution occurs when improvements in environmental efficiency fail to achieve the expected mitigation. Under economic tournaments, local government competition plays a critical role in addressing the rebound effects. However, it remains unclear whether local government competition exacerbates or mitigates the rebound effects based on different competition means. Particularly in China, local governments often attract foreign direct investment (FDI) and take tax incentives to gain economic advantages. Therefore, this study aims to explore how local government competition affects PM2.5 rebound effects using dynamic spatial Durbin model, focusing on the differences between FDI and tax competition. The results reveal an inverted-U relationship between FDI competition and PM2.5 rebound effects, with an inflection point at 20.706 billion Chinese Yuan. While for every 1% increase in tax competition, the PM2.5 rebound effects consistently increase by 0.137%. Notably, the impact of FDI competition shows significant regional heterogeneity. In economically developed regions, FDI competition surpasses the inflection point of the inverted-U curve, whereby a 1% increase in FDI competition mitigates the rebound effects by 0.064%. While in underdeveloped regions, FDI competition remains at the promotion interval, exacerbating the rebound effects by 0.122% per 1% FDI competition increase. This study offers a theoretical framework to explain how local government competition yields different environmental consequences. The evidence-based findings also guide policymakers to promote environmental-friendly FDI with regional conditions and curb tax competition, balancing economic and environmental priorities.

Livestock sector can threaten planetary boundaries without regionally differentiated strategies

The livestock sector represents major challenges to safeguarding environmental integrity. This study comprehensively analyzes ten environmental footprints of the livestock sector from 1995 to 2022, with projections until 2030, and juxtaposes them with the planetary boundaries. We quantify greenhouse gas emissions, land use, water use, particulate matter formation, and biochemical flows associated with the livestock sector. Our findings indicate that the livestock sector alone poses a significant challenge to planetary boundaries and has the potential to threaten several of these boundaries by 2030. Scenario modeling shows that a "one-size-fits-all" strategy for all countries can be suboptimal. Conversely, a region-specific strategy that requires developed regions to align meat consumption with the Eat-Lancet diet while developing regions focus on improvement of production efficiency is optimal for reducing livestock's global environmental footprints. These findings highlight the need for targeted policy measures and regional strategies to effectively mitigate the environmental impacts of the livestock sector and ensure sustainable practices.

Spillover effects of structure-adjustment pollution reduction measures in China's iron and steel industry

The iron and steel industry (ISI) is a significant source of sulfur dioxide and particulate matter pollution in China. Existing research on regional environmental regulation or ISI emission reduction strategies tends to overlook spillover effects and the enterprise perspective. During the heating season, production limitations in ISI are potential policy measures for achieving structural emission reductions in heavily polluted cities in China's Jing-Jin-Ji and surrounding regions. We adopt a bottom-up modeling approach, incorporating effective production time to describe enterprise behavior and establishing a quantitative trade model based on trade theory. By modeling three types of production restriction policies outlined in policy documents, we evaluate the emission reduction effects of structure-adjustment measures using the example of reduced effective production time for steel-producing enterprises in the air pollution transmission channel in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area. The results indicate the following: (1) Reducing the effective production time of ISI enterprises can help decrease domestic production value and total factor productivity in pollution-intensive industries, including but not limited to ISI. It also leads to reduced emissions of various pollutants in the implementation regions. (2) Due to interprovincial trade and input-output linkages, structural reduction measures in certain regions have implications for almost all other provinces' industrial structures. Differences in initial industrial structures, factor endowments, and geographical locations contribute to varying directions and magnitudes of industrial structural changes. Pollution-intensive industries' share tends to increase higher in less developed regions. (3) Our estimated pollution reduction is smaller compared to the literature evaluating clean air policies in similar regions using top-down strategies. This discrepancy arises because we analyze a single policy tool rather than modeling industry-wide emission fluctuations from the top down. Additionally, our modeling approach allows us to examine dynamic changes in comparative advantages. The increase in production scale for certain industries in policy-affected regions partially offsets the decline in pollution emissions. These findings enhance our understanding of structure-adjustment reduction measures' role and highlight their potential advantages and limitations.

Which government policies to create sustainable food systems have the potential to simultaneously address undernutrition, obesity and environmental sustainability?

INTRODUCTION

A transformation of food systems is urgently needed, given their contribution to three ongoing and interlinked global health pandemics: (1) undernutrition and food insecurity, (2) obesity and non-communicable diseases (NCDs), and (3) climate change and biodiversity loss. As policymakers make decisions that shape food systems, this study aimed to identify and prioritise policies with double- or triple-duty potential to achieve healthier and more environmentally sustainable food systems.

METHODS

This study undertook a 4-step methodological approach, including (i) a compilation of international policy recommendations, (ii) an online survey, (iii) four regional workshops with international experts and (iv) a ranking for prioritisation. Policies were identified and prioritised based on their double- or triple-duty potential, synergies and trade-offs. Using participatory and transdisciplinary approaches, policies were identified to have double- or triple-duty potential if they were deemed effective in tackling two or three of the primary outcomes of interest: (1) undernutrition, (2) obesity/NCDs and (3) environmental degradation.

RESULTS

The desk review identified 291 recommendations for governments, which were merged and classified into 46 initially proposed policies. Based on the results from the online survey, 61% of those policies were perceived to have double- or triple-duty potential. During the workshops, 4 potential synergies and 31 trade-offs of these policies were identified. The final list of 44 proposed policies for healthier and more environmentally sustainable food systems created was divided into two main policy domains: 'food supply chains' and 'food environments'. The outcome with the most trade-offs identified was 'undernutrition', followed by 'environmental sustainability', and 'obesity/NCDs'. Of the top five expert-ranked food supply chain policies, two were perceived to have triple-duty potential: (a) incentives for crop diversification; (b) support for start-ups, and small- and medium-sized enterprises. For food environments, three of the top five ranked policies had perceived triple-duty potential: (a) affordability of healthier and more sustainable diets; (b) subsidies for healthier and more sustainable foods; (c) restrictions on children's exposure to marketing through all media.

CONCLUSION

This study identified and prioritised a comprehensive list of double- and triple-duty government policies for creating healthier and more environmentally sustainable food systems. As some proposed policies may have trade-offs across outcomes, they should be carefully contextualised, designed, implemented and monitored.

Carbon neutrality along the global value chain: an international embedded carbon network analysis

Using the value-added method in the global input-output framework, embedded carbon transfers between economies are measured. Then, the international embedded carbon network (IECN) models are constructed and analyzed to reveal the real pattern of the IECN. Influential factors of the IECN are further explored with Quadratic Assignment Procedure (QAP). The main findings are as follows: first, the IECN has the characteristics of small world and scale-free. Developed economies led by the USA have high centrality indicators and always occupy the core position in the network; the network position of China and India has risen significantly with different network characteristics. Second, the subgroup relationships of the carbon network implied by international trade are becoming more and more complex and diverse, economies' participation in the global carbon chain is gradually increasing, and the number of edge nodes are decreasing. Third, the results of QAP analysis show that in addition to the negative impact of geographical distance on embedded carbon transfers between economies, inter-country trade agreement relations, differences in industrial structure, energy intensity, environmental regulation, economic size, and population size have a positive impact on embedded carbon transfers between economies. These findings can provide important practice implications for the global carbon neutrality.

Dynamic evolutionary characteristics and influence mechanisms of carbon emission intensity in counties of the Yangtze River Delta, China

Clarifying the intrinsic mechanism of county carbon emission intensity (CEI) is essential for guiding the realization of a low-carbon economy as well as for the strategic goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. However, at present, scholars mostly focus on provincial and city scales, with the identification of influencing factors and spatial effect mechanisms of CEI rarely included in the analysis framework. Herein, with the help of three spatial weight matrices, the spatial autocorrelation, the "F + S" influence factor identification method, and the spatial panel econometric model were used to analyze the evolutionary paths and influencing factors of CEI for 209 counties in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) from 2007 to 2020. The results show that (1) the CEI of the YRD decreased from 1.998t/104 RMB to 0.858t/104 RMB. Furthermore, the spatial pattern was low in the southeast and high in the northwest, with high-value areas concentrated in municipal districts and resource-based counties. (2) Moran's I spatial autocorrelation index indicated significant spatial clustering of county CEI. (3) Financial science and technology expenditure, industrial structure, share of urban built-up land, and the urban-rural income gap affected the change in CEI and its spatial effect, whereas total imports and exports had a significant negative effect on local CEI. Therefore, to achieve China's "double carbon" goal, it is necessary to consider the five development concepts as the core, strengthen inter-county exchanges and collaboration, as well as promote collaborative management of the ecological environment.

A novel integrated optimization model for carbon emission prediction: A case study on the group of 20

Carbon emission is a central factor in the study of the greenhouse effect and a crucial consideration in environmental policy making. Therefore, it is essential to establish carbon emission prediction models to provide scientific guidance for leaders in implementing effective carbon reduction policies. However, existing research lacks comprehensive roadmaps that integrate both time series prediction and analysis of influencing factors. This study combines the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) theory to classify and qualitatively analyzes research subjects based on national development patterns and levels. Considering the autocorrelated characteristics of carbon emissions and their correlation with other influencing factors, we propose an integrated carbon emission prediction model named SSA-FAGM-SVR. This model optimizes the fractional accumulation grey model (FAGM) and support vector regression (SVR) using the sparrow search algorithm (SSA), considering both time series and influencing factors. The model is subsequently applied to predict the carbon emissions of the G20 for the next 10 years. The results demonstrate that this model significantly improves prediction accuracy compared to other mainstream prediction algorithms, exhibiting strong adaptability and high accuracy.

China's domestic industry redistribution facilitates carbon emissions mitigation

Industry redistribution is a common economic phenomenon that involves a dynamic configuration of the production location across a region, country, or the world. However, measurements of the associated pollutant emission effects have not been well conducted at the domestically regional level. Here, we calculate the CO₂ emission changes induced by China's domestic inter-provincial industry redistribution during 2002-2017 using a counterfactual approach in the multi-regional input-output framework. We find that China's domestic industry redistribution decreased CO₂ emissions during 2002-2017 and has considerable potential to continuously mitigate CO₂ emissions in the future. We emphasize that the pollution haven effect may accompany the process of industry redistribution but can be weakened by effective policies, including stringent access thresholds in the regions undertaking industry relocation and regional industry structural upgrading. This paper provides policy recommendations for strengthening regional coordination to achieve China's transformation to carbon neutrality.

Large Virtual Transboundary Hazardous Waste Flows: The Case of China

The Basel Convention and prior studies mainly focused on the physical transboundary movements of hazardous waste (transporting waste from one region to another for cheaper disposal). Here, we take China, the world's largest waste producer, as an example and reveal the virtual hazardous waste flows in trade (outsourcing waste by importing waste-intensive products) by developing a multiregional input-output model. Our model characterizes the impact of international trade between China and 140 economies and China's interprovincial trade on hazardous waste generated by 161,599 Chinese enterprises. We find that, in 2015, virtual hazardous waste flows in China's trade reached 26.6 million tons (67% of the national total), of which 31% were generated during the production of goods that were ultimately consumed abroad. Trade-related production is much dirtier than locally consumed production, generating 26% more hazardous waste per unit of GDP. Under the impact of virtual flows, 40% of the waste-intensive production and relevant disposal duty is unequally concentrated in three Chinese provinces (including two least-developed ones, Qinghai and Xinjiang). Our findings imply the importance of expanding the scope of transboundary waste regulations and provide a quantitative basis for introducing consumer responsibilities. This may help relieve waste management burdens in less-developed "waste havens".

Spatial-Temporal Evolution and Improvement Measures of Embodied Carbon Emissions in Interprovincial Trade for Coal Energy Supply Bases: Case Study of Anhui, China

On account of the long-term dependence on energy trade and the phenomenon of embodied carbon emissions in interprovincial trade (ECEs-IPT), energy supply bases (ESBs) in the economic integration regions (EIRs) are under unprecedented dual pressure of achieving carbon emissions (CEs) reduction targets and ensuring security and stability of the energy supply. This problem has attracted more and more attention and research by experts and scholars. This paper took Anhui, the coal ESB of the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB), as an example and took the key stage of rapid development of regional economic integration (REI) and accelerated the realization of CEs reduction targets in YREB from 2007 to 2017 as the study period. From the perspectives of regions and industry sectors, we calculated the transfer amount of ECEs-IPT in Anhui among the YREB, analyzed the spatial-temporal evolution pattern of ECEs-IPT, and revealed the industrial characteristics of ECEs-IPT. Then, we classified the industry sectors and proposed the direction of industrial improvement measures. The results showed that, during the decade, the amount of provinces undertaking the net ECEs-IPT outflow from Anhui increased significantly and spatially expanded from only Jiangxi Province to almost all of the YREB. In addition, 39.77% of the net ECEs-IPT outflow of Anhui was concentrated in petroleum processing, coking, and nuclear fuel processing (RefPetraol), metal smelting and rolling processing (MetalSmelt), and electricity and heat production and supply (ElectpowerProd) that trade with Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Jiangxi. The analytical model and results will provide a useful reference for the global similar coal ESBs, especially the coal ESBs within the EIRs, to formulate improvement measures for regions or even the world to ensure stability of the energy supply and achieve regional CEs reduction targets.

Exports Widen the Regional Inequality of Health Burdens and Economic Benefits in India

Both the ever-complex international and subnational supply chains could relocate health burdens and economic benefits across India, leading to the widening of regional inequality. Here, we simultaneously track the unequal distribution of fine particle matter (PM_2.5) pollution, health costs, and value-added embodied in inter- and intranational exports for Indian states in 2015 by integrating a nested multiregional input-output (MRIO) table constructed based on EXIOBASE and an Indian regional MRIO table, Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR), the Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model, and a concentration-response function. The results showed that the annual premature deaths associated with PM_2.5 pollution embodied in inter- and intranational exports were 757,356 and 388,003 throughout India, accounting for 39% and 20% of the total premature deaths caused by PM_2.5 pollution, respectively. Richer south and west coastal states received around half of the national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) induced by exports with a quarter of the health burden, while poorer central and east states bear approximately 60% of the health burden with less than a quarter of national GDP. Our findings highlight the role of exports in driving the regional inequality of health burdens and economic benefits. Therefore, tailored strategies (e.g., air pollution compensation, advanced technology transfer, and export structure optimization) could be formulated.

Examining industrial air pollution embodied in trade: implications of a hypothetical China-UK FTA

Very few developed economies have a full free trade agreement (FTA) with China. This study employs one GTAP model and builds an extended environmental multi-region input-output model to investigate a hypothetical China-UK FTA, concerning embodied industrial emissions of SO2, PM2.5, NOX, and NH3. The economic sectors are also classified based on their embodied pollution intensity and trade advantage index under various FTA scenarios. Results show that the UK's GDP and welfare and China's welfare will increase, along with changes in their trade structures. Overall, this FTA brings about larger net impacts on embodied emissions of SO2 than on PM2.5, NOX and NH3, and both countries are net importers of the latter three pollutants. Key sectors such as non-metallic mineral products, chemical products, and agriculture are inclined to become less competitive and less polluting under the FTA. The inclusion of agri-food sectors exhibits slight counteracting effects in general. The findings are of policy importance as they provide insights into how best to target key sectors, seeking a balance between trade development and environmental protection.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10668-022-02612-z.

Estimation of CO2 Emissions Embodied in Domestic Trade and Their Influencing Factors in Japan

CO2 emissions embodied in domestic trade between Japanese prefectures are gradually increasing and becoming an important growth point in the country’s CO2 emissions. The primary objective of this study is to evaluate the CO2 emissions embodied in Japan’s domestic imports and exports to visualize the carbon transfer paths between prefectures according to the attributes of production and consumption: also to identify the influencing factors of the carbon flow. This study estimated the CO2 emissions embodied in domestic imports and exports by prefectures using input–output analysis, followed by the log-mean Divisia index decomposition approach, which is used to quantify the influencing factor of net export CO2 emissions across prefectures. The results show substantial regional differences in the CO2 emissions embodied in domestic imports and exports across prefectures. Manufacturing prefectures satisfy most of Japan’s domestic demand for industrial products and are the main net exporters of CO2 emissions. Carbon flow is more obvious in economically advanced regions (such as the Kanto and Kansai regions) and covers more prefectures through carbon transfer. Consumer prefectures import the most CO2 emissions and export large amounts of CO2 emissions to other prefectures. Among the three factors influencing net export CO2 emissions, the technology effect has the most significant impact through the carbon intensity of domestic trade flows. These findings highlight the substantial differences in CO2 emissions embodied in domestic trade and the influencing factors across prefectures in Japan. The responsibility for emission reduction is attributable to both manufacturing and consumer prefectures.