Habitat availability explains variation in climate-driven range shifts across multiple taxonomic groups

With a little help from my friends: the roles of microbial symbionts in insect populations and communities

To understand insect abundance, distribution and dynamics, we need to understand the relevant drivers of their populations and communities. While microbial symbionts are known to strongly affect many aspects of insect biology, we lack data on their effects on populations or community processes, or on insects' evolutionary responses at different timescales. How these effects change as the anthropogenic effects on ecosystems intensify is an area of intense research. Recent developments in sequencing and bioinformatics permit cost-effective microbial diversity surveys, tracking symbiont transmission, and identification of functions across insect populations and multi-species communities. In this review, we explore how different functional categories of symbionts can influence insect life-history traits, how these effects could affect insect populations and their interactions with other species, and how they may affect processes and patterns at the level of entire communities. We argue that insect-associated microbes should be considered important drivers of insect response and adaptation to environmental challenges and opportunities. We also outline the emerging approaches for surveying and characterizing insect-associated microbiota at population and community scales. This article is part of the theme issue 'Towards a toolkit for global insect biodiversity monitoring'.

Range and climate niche shifts in European and North American breeding birds

Species respond dynamically to climate change and exhibit time lags. Consequently, species may not occupy their full climatic niche during range shifting. Here, we assessed climate niche tracking during recent range shifts of European and United States (US) birds. Using data from two European bird atlases and from the North American Breeding Bird Survey between the 1980s and 2010s, we analysed range overlap and climate niche overlap based on kernel density estimation. Phylogenetic multiple regression was used to assess the effect of species morphological, ecological and biogeographic traits on range and niche metrics. European birds shifted their ranges north and north-eastwards, US birds westwards. Range unfilling was lower than expected by null models, and niche expansion was more common than niche unfilling. Also, climate niche tracking was generally lower in US birds and poorly explained by species traits. Overall, our results suggest that dispersal limitations were minor in range shifting birds in Europe and the USA while delayed extinctions from unfavourable areas seem more important. Regional differences could be related to differences in land use history and monitoring schemes. Comparative analyses of range and niche shifts provide a useful screening approach for identifying the importance of transient dynamics and time-lagged responses to climate change. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

A Warm Welcome to the Alps-The Northward Expansion of Trithemis annulata (Odonata, Libellulidae) in Italy

Climate warming has already influenced the distribution, community composition, and phenology of European Odonata. Trithemis annulata had been confined to the southern regions of Italy for over 150 years. In only four decades, it has expanded its range and has recently been observed inhabiting several alpine valleys. A dataset of 2557 geographical distribution data points spanning the years 1825-2023 was compiled using various resources, with the aim to analyse the chrono-story of the expansion of T. annulata. A further aim was to investigate the climatic conditions that best explain its current and future distribution. Over a period of 43 years, the species steadily extended its northern range margin at an approximate rate of 12 km/year. Once it reached the Po Plain, the expansion accelerated to an average speed of 34 km/year. However, its northward shift lagged behind the warming climate as we estimated an average speed of 28 km/year. In the future, the area suitable for T. annulata is expected to significantly increase in Italy. Surprisingly, we did not observe any consistent upward shift. Trithemis annulata has considerably expanded its distribution due to human-induced climate warming. The northernmost populations now inhabit Alpine valleys, potential gateways to central Europe.

Geographical distribution and ecological niche dynamics of Crassostrea sikamea (Amemiya, 1928) in China's coastal regions under climate change

Global climate change drives species redistribution, threatening biodiversity and ecosystem heterogeneity. The Kumamoto oyster, Crassostrea sikamea (Amemiya, 1928), one of the most promising aquaculture species because of its delayed reproductive timing, was once prevalent in southern China. In this study, an ensemble species distribution model was employed to analyze the distribution range shift and ecological niche dynamics of C. sikamea along China's coastline under the current and future climate scenarios (RCP 2.6-8.5 covering 2050 s and 2100 s). The model results indicated that the current habitat distribution for C. sikamea consists of a continuous stretch extending from the coastlines of Hainan Province to the northern shores of Jiangsu Province. By the 2050 s, the distribution range will stabilize at its southern end along the coast of Hainan Province, while expanding northward to cover the coastal areas of Shandong Province, showing a more dramatic trend of contraction in the south and invasion in the north by the 2100 s. In RCP8.5, the southern end retracts to the coasts of Guangdong, whereas the northern end covers all of China's coastal areas north of 34°N. C. sikamea can maintain relatively stable ecological niche characteristics, while it may occupy different ecological niche spaces under future climate conditions. Significant niche expansion will occur in lower temperature. We concluded C. sikamea habitats are susceptible to climate change. The rapid northward expansion of C. sikamea may open new possibilities for oyster farming in China, but it will also have important consequences for the ecological balance and biodiversity of receiving areas. It's imperative that we closely examine and strategize to address these repercussions for a win-win situation.

Significant shifts in latitudinal optima of North American birds

Changes in climate can alter environmental conditions faster than most species can adapt. A prediction under a warming climate is that species will shift their distributions poleward through time. While many studies focus on range shifts, latitudinal shifts in species' optima can occur without detectable changes in their range. We quantified shifts in latitudinal optima for 209 North American bird species over the last 55 y. The latitudinal optimum (m) for each species in each year was estimated using a bespoke flexible non-linear zero-inflated model of abundance vs. latitude, and the annual shift in m through time was quantified. One-third (70) of the bird species showed a significant shift in their optimum. Overall, mean peak abundances of North American birds have shifted northward, on average, at a rate of 1.5 km per year (±0.58 SE), corresponding to a total distance moved of 82.5 km (±31.9 SE) over the last 55 y. Stronger poleward shifts at the continental scale were linked to key species' traits, including thermal optimum, habitat specialization, and territoriality. Shifts in the western region were larger and less variable than in the eastern region, and they were linked to species' thermal optimum, habitat density preference, and habitat specialization. Individual species' latitudinal shifts were most strongly linked to their estimated thermal optimum, clearly indicating a climate-driven response. Displacement of species from their historically optimal realized niches can have dramatic ecological consequences. Effective conservation must consider within-range abundance shifts. Areas currently deemed "optimal" are unlikely to remain so.

Anthropogenic climate and land-use change drive short- and long-term biodiversity shifts across taxa

Climate change and habitat loss present serious threats to nature. Yet, due to a lack of historical land-use data, the potential for land-use change and baseline land-use conditions to interact with a changing climate to affect biodiversity remains largely unknown. Here, we use historical land use, climate data and species observation data to investigate the patterns and causes of biodiversity change in Great Britain. We show that anthropogenic climate change and land conversion have broadly led to increased richness, biotic homogenization and warmer-adapted communities of British birds, butterflies and plants over the long term (50+ years) and short term (20 years). Biodiversity change was found to be largely determined by baseline environmental conditions of land use and climate, especially over shorter timescales, suggesting that biodiversity change in recent periods could reflect an inertia derived from past environmental changes. Climate-land-use interactions were mostly related to long-term change in species richness and beta diversity across taxa. Semi-natural grasslands (in a broad sense, including meadows, pastures, lowland and upland heathlands and open wetlands) were associated with lower rates of biodiversity change, while their contribution to national-level biodiversity doubled over the long term. Our findings highlight the need to protect and restore natural and semi-natural habitats, alongside a fuller consideration of individual species' requirements beyond simple measures of species richness in biodiversity management and policy.

The ecological and evolutionary consequences of tropicalisation

Tropicalisation is a marine phenomenon arising from contemporary climate change, and is characterised by the range expansion of tropical/subtropical species and the retraction of temperate species. Tropicalisation occurs globally and can be detected in both tropical/temperate transition zones and temperate regions. The ecological consequences of tropicalisation range from single-species impacts (e.g., altered behaviour) to whole ecosystem changes (e.g., phase shifts in intertidal and subtidal habitats). Our understanding of the evolutionary consequences of tropicalisation is limited, but emerging evidence suggests that tropicalisation could induce phenotypic change as well as shifts in the genotypic composition of both expanding and retracting species. Given the rapid rate of contemporary climate change, research on tropicalisation focusing on shifts in ecosystem functioning, biodiversity change, and socioeconomic impacts is urgently needed.

Recent range shifts of moths, butterflies, and birds are driven by the breadth of their climatic niche

Species are altering their ranges as a response to climate change, but the magnitude and direction of observed range shifts vary considerably among species. The ability to persist in current areas and colonize new areas plays a crucial role in determining which species will thrive and which decline as climate change progresses. Several studies have sought to identify characteristics, such as morphological and life-history traits, that could explain differences in the capability of species to shift their ranges together with a changing climate. These characteristics have explained variation in range shifts only sporadically, thus offering an uncertain tool for discerning responses among species. As long-term selection to past climates have shaped species' tolerances, metrics describing species' contemporary climatic niches may provide an alternative means for understanding responses to on-going climate change. Species that occur in a broader range of climatic conditions may hold greater tolerance to climatic variability and could therefore more readily maintain their historical ranges, while species with more narrow tolerances may only persist if they are able to shift in space to track their climatic niche. Here, we provide a first-filter test of the effect of climatic niche dimensions on shifts in the leading range edges in three relatively well-dispersing species groups. Based on the realized changes in the northern range edges of 383 moth, butterfly, and bird species across a boreal 1,100 km latitudinal gradient over c. 20 years, we show that while most morphological or life-history traits were not strongly connected with range shifts, moths and birds occupying a narrower thermal niche and butterflies occupying a broader moisture niche across their European distribution show stronger shifts towards the north. Our results indicate that the climatic niche may be important for predicting responses under climate change and as such warrants further investigation of potential mechanistic underpinnings.

Relicts in the mist: Two new frog families, genera and species highlight the role of Pantepui as a biodiversity museum throughout the Cenozoic

The iconic mountains of the Pantepui biogeographical region host many early-diverging endemic animal and plant lineages, concurring with Conan Doyle's novel about an ancient "Lost World". While this is the case of several frog lineages, others appear to have more recent origins, adding to the controversy around the diversification processes in this region. Due to its remoteness, Pantepui is challenging for biological surveys, and only a glimpse of its biodiversity has been described, which hampers comprehensive evolutionary studies in many groups. During a recent expedition to the Neblina massif on the Brazil-Venezuela border, we sampled two new frog species that could not be assigned to any known genus. Here, we perform phylogenetic analyses of mitogenomic and nuclear loci to infer the evolutionary relationships of the new taxa and support their description. We find that both species represent single lineages deeply nested within Brachycephaloidea, a major Neotropical clade of direct-developing frogs. Both species diverged >45 Ma from their closest relatives: the first is sister to all other Brachycephaloidea except for Ceuthomantis, another Pantepui endemic, and the second is sister to Brachycephalidae, endemic to the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. In addition to these considerable phylogenetic and biogeographic divergences, external morphology and osteological features support the proposition of two new family and genus-level taxa to accommodate these new branches of the amphibian tree of life. These findings add to other recently described ancient vertebrate lineages from the Neblina massif, providing a bewildering reminder that our perception of the Pantepui's biodiversity remains vastly incomplete. It also provides insights into how these mountains acted as "museums" during the diversification of Brachycephaloidea and of Neotropical biotas more broadly, in line with the influential "Plateau theory". Finally, these discoveries point at the yet unknown branches of the tree of life that may go extinct, due to global climate change and zoonotic diseases, before we even learn about their existence, amphibians living at higher elevations being particularly at risk.

Multiple genetic sources facilitate the northward range expansion of an intertidal oyster along China's coast

Coastal artificial structures on the former mudflats provide available habitats for the rocky intertidal species which can establish new populations in these emerging habitats over their former distribution range limits. As a former southern species, the oyster Crassostrea sikamea has become a pioneer and rapidly invaded the artificial shorelines in northern China. We used a seascape genomics approach to investigate the population structure and genetic sources of C. sikamea on the coastal artificial structures, which is crucial for understanding the genetic mechanisms driving species distribution range expansion and invasion pathway of intertidal species. Five C. sikamea populations, including two artificial substrate populations (WGZ and ZAP), one oyster reef population (LS), and two natural rocky shore populations (ZS and XM), were measured using single nucleotide polymorphism (SNPs) obtained from double digest restriction-site associated DNA sequencing (ddRAD-Seq). Redundancy analyses (RDA) were implemented for investigating the relationship between local temperature variables and the temperature adaptability of C. sikamea. Genetic diversity, direction and strength of gene flow, and population structure all revealed that the LS and ZS populations were the genetic sources for the oyster populations on the emerging northern coastal artificial structures. Results of RDA showed that there were different adaptive potentials for northern and southern populations to local temperature variables and the oyster reef population which frequently suffers from heat stress owned high heat adaptability. The ZS population as a genetic source nearby the Yangtze River estuary provided mass larvae for the northern populations, and the other genetic source, the heat-tolerant LS population, in the oyster reef played an important role in the post-settlement success by providing preadapted genotypes. These results highlight the importance of multiple sources with divergent adaptative capabilities for biological invasion, and also emphasize the importance of the oyster reef in coastal biodiversity and conservation.

Rapid evolution of novel biotic interactions in the UK Brown Argus butterfly uses genomic variation from across its geographical range

Understanding the rate and extent to which populations can adapt to novel environments at their ecological margins is fundamental to predicting the persistence of biological communities during ongoing and rapid global change. Recent range expansion in response to climate change in the UK butterfly Aricia agestis is associated with the evolution of novel interactions with a larval food plant, and the loss of its ability to use an ancestral host species. Using ddRAD analysis of 61,210 variable SNPs from 261 females from throughout the UK range of this species, we identify genomic regions at multiple chromosomes that are associated with evolutionary responses, and their association with demographic history and ecological variation. Gene flow appears widespread throughout the range, despite the apparently fragmented nature of the habitats used by this species. Patterns of haplotype variation between selected and neutral genomic regions suggest that evolution associated with climate adaptation is polygenic, resulting from the independent spread of alleles throughout the established range of this species, rather than the colonization of pre-adapted genotypes from coastal populations. These data suggest that rapid responses to climate change do not depend on the availability of pre-adapted genotypes. Instead, the evolution of novel forms of biotic interaction in A. agestis has occurred during range expansion, through the assembly of novel genotypes from alleles from multiple localities.

Linking climate warming and land conversion to species' range changes across Great Britain

Although increased temperatures are known to reinforce the effects of habitat destruction at local to landscape scales, evidence of their additive or interactive effects is limited, particularly over larger spatial extents and longer timescales. To address these deficiencies, we created a dataset of land-use changes over 75 years, documenting the loss of over half (>3000 km2) the semi-natural grassland of Great Britain. Pairing this dataset with climate change data, we tested for relationships to distribution changes in birds, butterflies, macromoths, and plants (n = 1192 species total). We show that individual or additive effects of climate warming and land conversion unambiguously increased persistence probability for 40% of species, and decreased it for 12%, and these effects were reflected in both range contractions and expansions. Interactive effects were relatively rare, being detected in less than 1 in 5 species, and their overall effect on extinction risk was often weak. Such individualistic responses emphasise the importance of including species-level information in policies targeting biodiversity and climate adaptation.

Key tropical crops at risk from pollinator loss due to climate change and land use

Insect pollinator biodiversity is changing rapidly, with potential consequences for the provision of crop pollination. However, the role of land use-climate interactions in pollinator biodiversity changes, as well as consequent economic effects via changes in crop pollination, remains poorly understood. We present a global assessment of the interactive effects of climate change and land use on pollinator abundance and richness and predictions of the risk to crop pollination from the inferred changes. Using a dataset containing 2673 sites and 3080 insect pollinator species, we show that the interactive combination of agriculture and climate change is associated with large reductions in insect pollinators. As a result, it is expected that the tropics will experience the greatest risk to crop production from pollinator losses. Localized risk is highest and predicted to increase most rapidly, in regions of sub-Saharan Africa, northern South America, and Southeast Asia. Via pollinator loss alone, climate change and agricultural land use could be a risk to human well-being.

Temperature niche composition change inside and outside protected areas under climate warming

Conservation of biodiversity relies heavily on protected areas but their role and effectiveness under a warming climate is still debated. We estimated the climate-driven changes in the temperature niche compositions of bird communities inside and outside protected areas in southern Canada. We hypothesized that communities inside protected areas include a higher proportion of cold-dwelling species than communities outside protected areas. We also hypothesized that communities shift to warm-dwelling species more slowly inside protected areas than outside. To study community changes, we used large-scale and long-term (1997-2019) data from the Breeding Bird Survey of Canada. To describe the temperature niche compositions of bird communities, we calculated the community temperature index (CTI) annually for each community inside and outside protected areas. Generally, warm-dwelling species dominated communities with high CTI values. We modeled temporal changes in CTI as a function of protection status with linear mixed-effect models. We also determined which species contributed most to the temporal changes in CTI with a jackknife approach. As anticipated, CTI was lower inside protected areas than outside. However, contrary to our expectation, CTI increased faster over time inside than outside protected areas and warm-dwelling species contributed most to CTI change inside protected areas. These results highlight the ubiquitous impacts of climate warming. Currently, protected areas can aid cold-dwelling species by providing habitat, but as the climate warms, the communities' temperature compositions inside protected areas quickly begin to resemble those outside protected areas, suggesting that protected areas delay the impacts of climate warming on cold-dwelling species.

Drivers and pressures behind insect decline in Central and Western Europe based on long-term monitoring data

Insect declines have been discussed intensively among experts, policymakers, and the public. Albeit, decreasing trends have been reported for a long time for various regions in Europe and North America, but the controversial discussion over the role of specific drivers and pressures still remains. A reason for these uncertainties lies within the complex networks of inter-dependent biotic and abiotic factors as well as anthropogenic activities that influence habitats, communities, populations, and individual organisms. Many recent publications aim to identify both the extent of the observed declines and potential drivers. With this literature analysis, we provide an overview of the drivers and pressures and their inter-relationships, which were concluded in the scientific literature, using some of the best-studied insect groups as examples. We conducted a detailed literature evaluation of publications on Carabidae (Coleoptera) and Lepidoptera trends with data for at least 6 years in countries of Central and Western Europe, with a focus on agricultural landscapes. From the 82 publications identified as relevant, we extracted all reported trends and classified the respective factors described according to the DPSIR model. Further, we analysed the level of scientific verification (presumed vs correlated vs examined) within these papers for these cited stressors. The extracted trends for both species groups underline the reported overall declining trend. Whether negative or positive trends were reported in the papers, our semi-quantitative analysis shows that changes in insect populations are primarily anthropogenically driven by agriculture, climate change, nature conservation activities, urbanisation, and other anthropogenic activities. Most of the identified pressures were found to act on habitat level, only a fraction attributed to direct effects to the insects. While our analysis gives an overview of existing research concerning abundance and biodiversity trends of carabids and lepidopterans, it also shows gaps in scientific data in this area, in particular in monitoring the pressures along with the monitoring of abundance trends. The scientific basis for assessing biodiversity changes in the landscape is essential to help all stakeholders involved to shape, e.g. agriculture and other human activities, in a more sustainable way, balancing human needs such as food production with conservation of nature.

Phenotypic variation in the molt characteristics of a seasonal coat color-changing species reveals limited resilience to climate change

The snowshoe hare (Lepus americanus) possesses a broad suite of adaptations to winter, including a seasonal coat color molt. Recently, climate change has been implicated in the range contraction of snowshoe hares along the southern range boundary. With shortening snow season duration, snowshoe hares are experiencing increased camouflage mismatch with their environment reducing survival. Phenological variation of hare molt at regional scales could facilitate local adaptation in the face of climate change, but the level of variation, especially along the southern range boundary, is unknown. Using a network of trail cameras and historical museum specimens, we (1) developed contemporary and historical molt phenology curves in the Upper Great Lakes region, USA, (2) calculated molt rate and variability in and among populations, and (3) quantified the relationship of molt characteristics to environmental conditions for snowshoe hares across North America. We found that snowshoe hares across the region exhibited similar fall and spring molt phenologies, rates and variation. Yet, an insular island population of hares on Isle Royale National Park, MI, completed their molt a week earlier in the fall and initiated molt almost 2 weeks later in the spring as well as exhibited slower rates of molting in the fall season compared to the mainland. Over the last 100 years, snowshoe hares across the region have not shifted in fall molt timing; though contemporary spring molt appears to have advanced by 17 days (~ 4 days per decade) compared to historical molt phenology. Our research indicates that some variation in molt phenology exists for snowshoe hares in the Upper Great Lakes region, but whether this variation is enough to offset the consequences of climate change remains to be seen.

Precipitation buffers temperature-driven local extinctions of moths at warm range margins

Species' distributions are moving polewards in response to climate change, and although range expansions of relatively warm-adapted species are widely reported, reports of range retractions in cool-adapted species are less common. Here, we analysed species' distribution shifts for 76 cool-adapted moths in Great Britain using citizen science occurrence records from the National Moth Recording Scheme over a 40-year period. Although we find evidence for trailing edge shifts to higher latitudes, shifts in species' range centroids are oriented towards the north-west, and are more closely correlated with directional changes in total precipitation than average temperature. We also found that species' local extinction risk is higher in areas where temperature is high and precipitation is low, but this risk diminishes as precipitation increases. Adaptation efforts should therefore focus on maintaining or increasing water availability as the climate continues to change.

Red-listed plants are contracting their elevational range faster than common plants in the European Alps

Mountain ecosystems are exposed to multiple anthropogenic pressures that are reshaping the distribution of plant populations. Range dynamics of mountain plants exhibit large variability with species expanding, shifting, or shrinking their elevational range. Using a dataset of more than 1 million records of common and red-listed native and alien plants, we could reconstruct range dynamics of 1,479 species of the European Alps over the last 30 y. Red-listed species were not able to track climate warming at the leading edge of their distribution, and further experienced a strong erosion of rear margins, resulting in an overall rapid range contraction. Common natives also contracted their range, albeit less drastically, through faster upslope shift at the rear than at the leading edge. By contrast, aliens quickly expanded upslope by moving their leading edge at macroclimate change speed, while keeping their rear margins almost still. Most red-listed natives and the large majority of aliens were warm-adapted, but only aliens showed high competitive abilities to thrive under high-resource and disturbed environments. Rapid upward shifts of the rear edge of natives were probably driven by multiple environmental pressures including climate change as well as land-use change and intensification. The high environmental pressure that populations encounter in the lowlands might constrain the ability of expanding species to shift their range into more natural areas at higher elevations. As red-listed natives and aliens mostly co-occurred in the lowlands, where human pressures are at their highest, conservation should prioritize low-elevation areas of the European Alps.

The role of climate change and niche shifts in divergent range dynamics of a sister-species pair

Species ranges are set by limitations in factors including climate tolerances, habitat use, and dispersal abilities. Understanding the factors governing species range dynamics remains a challenge that is ever more important in our rapidly changing world. Species ranges can shift if environmental changes affect available habitat, or if the niche or habitat connectivity of a species changes. We tested how changes in habitat availability, niche, or habitat connectivity could contribute to divergent range dynamics in a sister-species pair. The great-tailed grackle (Quiscalus mexicanus) has expanded its range northward from Texas to Nebraska in the past 40 years, while its closest relative, the boattailed grackle (Quiscalus major), has remained tied to the coasts of the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico as well as the interior of Florida. We created species distribution and connectivity models trained on citizen science data from 1970-1979 and 2010-2019 to determine how the availability of habitat, the types of habitat occupied, and range-wide connectivity have changed for both species. We found that the two species occupy distinct habitats and that the great-tailed grackle has shifted to occupy a larger breadth of urban, arid environments farther from natural water sources. Meanwhile, the boattailed grackle has remained limited to warm, wet, coastal environments. We found no evidence that changes in habitat connectivity affected the ranges of either species. Overall, our results suggest that the great-tailed grackle has shifted its realized niche as part of its rapid range expansion, while the range dynamics of the boat-tailed grackle may be shaped more by climate change. The expansion in habitats occupied by the great-tailed grackle is consistent with observations that species with high behavioral flexibility can rapidly expand their geographic range by using human-altered habitat. This investigation identifies how opposite responses to anthropogenic change could drive divergent range dynamics, elucidating the factors that have and will continue to shape species ranges.

Climate warming has compounded plant responses to habitat conversion in northern Europe

Serious concerns exist about potentially reinforcing negative effects of climate change and land conversion on biodiversity. Here, we investigate the tandem and interacting roles of climate warming and land-use change as predictors of shifts in the regional distributions of 1701 plant species in Sweden over 60 years. We show that species associated with warmer climates have increased, while grassland specialists have declined. Our results also support the hypothesis that climate warming and vegetation densification through grazing abandonment have synergistic effects on species distribution change. Local extinctions were related to high levels of warming but were reduced by grassland retention. In contrast, colonisations occurred more often in areas experiencing high levels of both climate and land-use change. Strong temperature increases were experienced by species across their ranges, indicating time lags in expected warming-related local extinctions. Our results highlight that the conservation of threatened species relies on both reduced greenhouse gas emissions and the retention and restoration of valuable habitat.

Multi-season climate projections forecast declines in migratory monarch butterflies

Climate change poses a unique threat to migratory species as it has the potential to alter environmental conditions at multiple points along a species' migratory route. The eastern migratory population of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) has declined markedly over the last few decades, in part due to variation in breeding-season climate. Here, we combined a retrospective, annual-cycle model for the eastern monarch population with climate projections within the spring breeding grounds in eastern Texas and across the summer breeding grounds in the midwestern U.S. and southern Ontario, Canada to evaluate how monarchs are likely to respond to climate change over the next century. Our results reveal that projected changes in breeding-season climate are likely to lead to decreases in monarch abundance, with high potential for overwintering population size to fall below the historical minimum three or more times in the next two decades. Climatic changes across the expansive summer breeding grounds will also cause shifts in the distribution of monarchs, with higher projected abundances in areas that become wetter but not appreciably hotter (e.g., northern Ohio) and declines in abundance where summer temperatures are projected to increase well above those observed in the recent past (e.g., northern Minnesota). Although climate uncertainties dominate long-term population forecasts, our analyses suggest that we can improve precision of near-term forecasts by collecting targeted data to better understand relationships between breeding-season climate variables and local monarch abundance. Overall, our results highlight the importance of accounting for the impacts of climate changes throughout the full-annual cycle of migratory species.

Pushed Northward by Climate Change: Range Shifts With a Chance of Co-occurrence Reshuffling in the Forecast for Northern European Odonates

Biodiversity is heavily influenced by ongoing climate change, which often results in species undergoing range shifts, either poleward or uphill. Range shifts can occur provided suitable habitats exist within reach. However, poleward latitudinal shifts might be limited by additional abiotic or biotic constraints, such as increased seasonality, photoperiod patterns, and species interactions. To gain insight into the dynamics of insect range shifts at high latitudes, we constructed ecological niche models (ENMs) for 57 Odonata species occurring in northern Europe. We used citizen science data from Sweden and present-day climatic variables covering a latitudinal range of 1,575 km. Then, to measure changes in range and interactions among Odonata species, we projected the ENMs up to the year 2080. We also estimated potential changes in species interactions using niche overlap and co-occurrence patterns. We found that most Odonata species are predicted to expand their range northward. The average latitudinal shift is expected to reach 1.83 and 3.25 km y-1 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, by 2061-2080. While the most warm-dwelling species may increase their range, our results indicate that cold-dwelling species will experience range contractions. The present-day niche overlap patterns among species will remain largely the same in the future. However, our results predict changes in co-occurrence patterns, with many species pairs showing increased co-occurrence, while others will no longer co-occur because of the range contractions. In sum, our ENM results suggest that species assemblages of Odonata-and perhaps insects in general-in northern latitudes will experience great compositional changes.

The role of continental shelf bathymetry in shaping marine range shifts in the face of climate change

As a consequence of anthropogenic climate change, marine species on continental shelves around the world are rapidly shifting deeper and poleward. However, whether these shifts deeper and poleward will allow species to access more, less, or equivalent amounts of continental shelf area and associated critical habitats remains unclear. By examining the proportion of seabed area at a range of depths for each large marine ecosystem (LME), we found that shelf area declined monotonically for 19% of LMEs examined. However, the majority exhibited a greater proportion of shelf area in mid-depths or across several depth ranges. By comparing continental shelf area across 2° latitudinal bands, we found that all coastlines exhibit multiple instances of shelf area expansion and contraction, which have the potential to promote or restrict poleward movement of marine species. Along most coastlines, overall shelf habitat increases or exhibits no significant change moving towards the poles. The exception is the Southern West Pacific, which experiences an overall loss of area with increasing latitude. Changes in continental shelf area availability across latitudes and depths are likely to affect the number of species local ecosystems can support. These geometric analyses help identify regions of conservation priority and ecological communities most likely to face attrition or expansion due to variations in available area.

Where and why are species' range shifts hampered by unsuitable landscapes?

There is widespread concern that species will fail to track climate change if habitat is too scarce or insufficiently connected. Targeted restoration has been advocated to help species adapt, and a "conductance" metric has been proposed, based on simulation studies, to predict effective habitat configurations. However, until now there is very little empirical evidence on how the configuration of habitat is affecting expansion at species' cool range margins. We analysed the colonisation events that have occurred in continuously monitored trap locations for 54 species of southerly distributed moths in Britain between 1985 and 2011. We tested whether the time until colonisation was affected by attributes of each species, and of intervening landcover and climate between the trap and the baseline distribution (1965-1985). For woodland species, the time until colonisation of new locations was predicted by the "conductance" of woodland habitat, and this relationship was general, regardless of species' exact dispersal distances and habitat needs. This shows that contemporary range shifts are being influenced by habitat configuration as well as simple habitat extent. For species associated with farmland or suburban habitats, colonisation was significantly slower through landscapes with a high variance in elevation and/or temperature. Therefore, it is not safe to assume that such relatively tolerant species face no geographical barriers to range expansion. We thus elucidate how species' attributes interact with landscape characteristics to create highly heterogeneous patterns of shifting at cool range margins. Conductance, and other predictors of range shifts, can provide a foundation for developing coherent conservation strategies to manage range shifts for entire communities.

Increasing climatic decoupling of bird abundances and distributions

Species abundances and distributions are changing in response to changing climate and other anthropogenic drivers but how this translates into how well species can match their optimal climate conditions as they change is not well understood. Using a continental-scale 30-year time series, we quantified temporal trends in climate matching of North American bird species and tested whether geographical variation in rates of climate and land use change and/or species traits could underlie variation in trends among species. Overall, we found that species abundances and distributions are becoming more decoupled from climate as it changes through time. Species differences in climate matching trends were related to their ecological traits, particularly habitat specialization, but not to average rates of climate and land use change within the species' ranges. Climatic decoupling through time was particularly prominent for birds that were declining in abundance and occupancy, including threatened species. While we could not discern whether climate decoupling causes or is caused by the negative population trends, higher climatic decoupling in declining species could lead to a feedback as birds experience increasing exposure to suboptimal climatic conditions.

Range shifts of overwintering birds depend on habitat type, snow conditions and habitat specialization

Climatic warming is forcing species to shift their ranges poleward, which has been demonstrated for many taxa globally. Yet, the influence of habitat types on within- and among-species variations of distribution shifts has rarely been studied, especially during the non-breeding season. Here, we investigated habitat-specific shift distances of northern range margins and directions of the distribution center based on long-term data of overwintering birds in Finland. Specifically, we explored influences of habitat type, species' snow depth tolerance, species' climatic niche and habitat specialization on range shifts during the past 40 years in 81 bird species. Birds overwintering in arable land shifted more clearly toward north compared to birds of the same species in rural and forest habitats, while the northern range margin shift distances did not significantly differ among the habitat types. Range shifts were more linked with the species' snow depth tolerance rather than species' climatic niche. Snow depth tolerance of species was negatively associated with the eastward shift direction across all habitats, while we found habitat-specific patterns with snow depth for northward shift directions and northern margin shift distances. Species with stronger habitat specializations shifted more strongly toward north as compared to generalist species, whereas the climatic niche of bird species only marginally correlated with range shifts, so that cold-dwelling species shifted longer distances and more clearly eastward. Our study reveals habitat-specific patterns linked to snow conditions for overwintering boreal birds and highlights the importance of habitat availability and preference in climate driven range shifts.

Modulating Effects of Landscape Characteristics on Responses to Warming Differ Among Butterfly Species

Understanding and predicting biodiversity responses to climate change are vital to inform conservation strategies, but this is not straightforward as climate change responses depend on the landscape context and differ among species. Here, we quantified changes in the distribution and abundance of 30 butterfly species in the Netherlands in relation to climate change and in landscapes that vary in the amount and connectivity of (semi-)natural vegetation (SNV). We obtained yearly counts of well-monitored butterfly species from 327 time series over 27 years (1992–2018). We used these counts to build mixed effect hurdle models to relate species’ occurrence and abundance to temperature and the amount and connectivity of SNV around the sites. For 55% of the butterfly species, an increased amount or connectivity of SNV corresponded with stronger increases or reduced decreases in occurrence in response to warming, indicating that SNV may facilitate range expansion or mitigate extirpations due to climate change. However, for the occurrence of the other species we found no or a negative interaction between warming and SNV. Further, we did not find indications of a mitigating effect of SNV on abundance responses to warming. Our results thus suggest that increasing the amount and connectivity of SNV does not offer a “one-size-fits-all” solution, highlighting the need for additional measures if butterfly diversity is to be conserved.

Climate-driven variation in biotic interactions provides a narrow and variable window of opportunity for an insect herbivore at its ecological margin

Climate-driven geographic range shifts have been associated with transitions between dietary specialism and generalism at range margins. The mechanisms underpinning these often transient niche breadth modifications are poorly known, but utilization of novel resources likely depends on phenological synchrony between the consumer and resource. We use a climate-driven range and host shift by the butterfly Aricia agestis to test how climate-driven changes in host phenology and condition affect phenological synchrony, and consider implications for host use. Our data suggest that the perennial plant that was the primary host before range expansion is a more reliable resource than the annual Geraniaceae upon which the butterfly has become specialized in newly colonized parts of its range. In particular, climate-driven phenological variation in the novel host Geranium dissectum generates a narrow and variable 'window of opportunity' for larval productivity in summer. Therefore, although climatic change may allow species to shift hosts and colonise novel environments, specialization on phenologically limited hosts may not persist at ecological margins as climate change continues. We highlight the potential role for phenological (a)synchrony in determining lability of consumer-resource associations at range margins and the importance of considering causes of synchrony in biotic interactions when predicting range shifts. This article is part of the theme issue 'Species' ranges in the face of changing environments (Part II)'.

Evolution of thermal physiology alters the projected range of threespine stickleback under climate change

Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to predict range shifts but could be unreliable under climate change scenarios because they do not account for evolution. The thermal physiology of a species is a key determinant of its range and thus incorporating thermal trait evolution into SDMs might be expected to alter projected ranges. We identified a genetic basis for physiological and behavioural traits that evolve in response to temperature change in natural populations of threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus). Using these data, we created geographical range projections using a mechanistic niche area approach under two climate change scenarios. Under both scenarios, trait data were either static ("no evolution" models), allowed to evolve at observed evolutionary rates ("evolution" models) or allowed to evolve at a rate of evolution scaled by the trait variance that is explained by quantitative trait loci (QTL; "scaled evolution" models). We show that incorporating these traits and their evolution substantially altered the projected ranges for a widespread panmictic marine population, with over 7-fold increases in area under climate change projections when traits are allowed to evolve. Evolution-informed SDMs should improve the precision of forecasting range dynamics under climate change, and aid in their application to management and the protection of biodiversity.

Declines in rodent abundance and diversity track regional climate variability in North American drylands

Regional long-term monitoring can enhance the detection of biodiversity declines associated with climate change, improving future projections by reducing reliance on space-for-time substitution and increasing scalability. Rodents are diverse and important consumers in drylands, regions defined by the scarcity of water that cover 45% of Earth's land surface and face increasingly drier and more variable climates. We analyzed abundance data for 22 rodent species across grassland, shrubland, ecotone, and woodland ecosystems in the southwestern USA. Two time series (1995-2006 and 2004-2013) coincided with phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which influences drought in southwestern North America. Regionally, rodent species diversity declined 20%-35%, with greater losses during the later time period. Abundance also declined regionally, but only during 2004-2013, with losses of 5% of animals captured. During the first time series (wetter climate), plant productivity outranked climate variables as the best regional predictor of rodent abundance for 70% of taxa, whereas during the second period (drier climate), climate best explained variation in abundance for 60% of taxa. Temporal dynamics in diversity and abundance differed spatially among ecosystems, with the largest declines in woodlands and shrublands of central New Mexico and Colorado. Which species were winners or losers under increasing drought and amplified interannual variability in drought depended on ecosystem type and the phase of the PDO. Fewer taxa were significant winners (18%) than losers (30%) under drought, but the identities of winners and losers differed among ecosystems for 70% of taxa. Our results suggest that the sensitivities of rodent species to climate contributed to regional declines in diversity and abundance during 1995-2013. Whether these changes portend future declines in drought-sensitive consumers in the southwestern USA will depend on the climate during the next major PDO cycle.

Microclimate and resource quality determine resource use in a range-expanding herbivore

The consequences of climate change for biogeographic range dynamics depend on the spatial scales at which climate influences focal species directly and indirectly via biotic interactions. An overlooked question concerns the extent to which microclimates modify specialist biotic interactions, with emergent properties for communities and range dynamics. Here, we use an in-field experiment to assess egg-laying behaviour of a range-expanding herbivore across a range of natural microclimatic conditions. We show that variation in microclimate, resource condition and individual fecundity can generate differences in egg-laying rates of almost two orders of magnitude in an exemplar species, the brown argus butterfly (Aricia agestis). This within-site variation in fecundity dwarfs variation resulting from differences in average ambient temperatures among populations. Although higher temperatures did not reduce female selection for host plants in good condition, the thermal sensitivities of egg-laying behaviours have the potential to accelerate climate-driven range expansion by increasing egg-laying encounters with novel hosts in increasingly suitable microclimates. Understanding the sensitivity of specialist biotic interactions to microclimatic variation is, therefore, critical to predict the outcomes of climate change across species' geographical ranges, and the resilience of ecological communities.

Colonizations cause diversification of host preferences: A mechanism explaining increased generalization at range boundaries expanding under climate change

As species' poleward range limits expand under climate change, generalists are expected to be better colonists than specialists, extending their ranges faster. This effect of specialization on range shifts has been shown, but so has the reverse cause-effect: in a global meta-analysis of butterfly diets, it was range expansions themselves that caused increases in population-level diet breadth. What could drive this unexpected process? We provide a novel behavioral mechanism by showing that, in a butterfly with extensive ecotypic variation, Edith's checkerspot, diet breadths increased after colonization events as diversification of individual host preferences pulled novel hosts into population diets. Subsequently, populations that persisted reverted toward monophagy. We draw together three lines of evidence from long-term studies of 15 independently evolving populations. First, direct observations showed a significant increase in specialization across decades: in recent censuses, eight populations used fewer host genera than in the 1980s while none used more. Second, behavioral preference-testing experiments showed that extinctions and recolonizations at two sites were followed, at first by diversification of heritable preference ranks and increases in diet breadth, and subsequently by homogenization of preferences and contractions of diet breadth. Third, we found a significant negative association in the 1980s between population-level diet breadth and genetic diversity. Populations with fewer mtDNA haplotypes had broader diets, extending to 3-4 host genera, while those with higher haplotype diversity were more specialized. We infer that diet breadth had increased in younger, recently colonized populations. Preference diversification after colonization events, whether caused by (cryptic) host shifts or by release of cryptic genetic variation after population bottlenecks, provides a mechanism for known effects of range shifts on diet specialization. Our results explain how colonizations at expanding range margins have increased population-level diet breadths, and predict that increasing specialization should accompany population persistence as current range edges become range interiors.

Combining range and phenology shifts offers a winning strategy for boreal Lepidoptera

Species can adapt to climate change by adjusting in situ or by dispersing to new areas, and these strategies may complement or enhance each other. Here, we investigate temporal shifts in phenology and spatial shifts in northern range boundaries for 289 Lepidoptera species by using long-term data sampled over two decades. While 40% of the species neither advanced phenology nor moved northward, nearly half (45%) used one of the two strategies. The strongest positive population trends were observed for the minority of species (15%) that both advanced flight phenology and shifted their northern range boundaries northward. We show that, for boreal Lepidoptera, a combination of phenology and range shifts is the most viable strategy under a changing climate. Effectively, this may divide species into winners and losers based on their propensity to capitalize on this combination, with potentially large consequences on future community composition.

Northwestward range expansion of the bumblebee Bombus haematurus into Central Europe is associated with warmer winters and niche conservatism

Species range expansions are crucial for understanding niche formation and the interaction with the environment. Here, we studied the bumblebee Bombus haematurus Kriechbaumer, 1870, a species historically distributed from northern Serbia through northern Iran which has very recently started expanding northwestward into Central Europe without human-mediated dispersal (i.e., it is a natural spread). After updating the global distribution of this species, we investigated if niche shifts took place during this range expansion between newly colonized and historical areas. In addition, we have explored which climatic factors may have favored the natural range expansion of the species. Our results indicated that Bombus haematurus has colonized large territories in 7 European countries outside the historical area in the period from the 1980s to 2018, a natural expansion over an area that equals 20% of the historical distribution. In addition, this bumblebee performs generalism in flower visitation and it occurs in different habitats, although a preference for forested areas clearly emerges. The land-use associated with the species in the colonized areas is similar to the historical distribution, indicating that no major niche shifts occurred during the spread. Furthermore, in recently colonized localities, the range expansion was associated with warming temperatures during the winter and also during both queen overwintering and emergence phases. These findings document a case of natural range expansion due to environmental change rather than due to niche shifts, and specifically they suggest that warmer winters could be linked to the process of natural colonization of new areas.

Insects and recent climate change

Insects have diversified through more than 450 million y of Earth's changeable climate, yet rapidly shifting patterns of temperature and precipitation now pose novel challenges as they combine with decades of other anthropogenic stressors including the conversion and degradation of land. Here, we consider how insects are responding to recent climate change while summarizing the literature on long-term monitoring of insect populations in the context of climatic fluctuations. Results to date suggest that climate change impacts on insects have the potential to be considerable, even when compared with changes in land use. The importance of climate is illustrated with a case study from the butterflies of Northern California, where we find that population declines have been severe in high-elevation areas removed from the most immediate effects of habitat loss. These results shed light on the complexity of montane-adapted insects responding to changing abiotic conditions. We also consider methodological issues that would improve syntheses of results across long-term insect datasets and highlight directions for future empirical work.

Improvements in reports of species redistribution under climate change are required

Studies have documented climate change-induced shifts in species distributions but uncertainties associated with data and methods are typically unexplored. We reviewed 240 reports of climate-related species-range shifts and classified them based on three criteria. We ask whether observed distributional shifts are compared against random expectations, whether multicausal factors are examined on equal footing, and whether studies provide sufficient documentation to enable replication. We found that only ~12.1% of studies compare distributional shifts across multiple directions, ~1.6% distinguish observed patterns from random expectations, and ~19.66% examine multicausal factors. Last, ~75.5% of studies report sufficient data and results to allow replication. We show that despite gradual improvements over time, there is scope for raising standards in data and methods within reports of climate-change induced shifts in species distribution. Accurate reporting is important because policy responses depend on them. Flawed assessments can fuel criticism and divert scarce resources for biodiversity to competing priorities.

High-elevational occurrence of two tick species, Ixodes ricinus and I. trianguliceps, at their northern distribution range

BACKGROUND

During the last decades a northward and upward range shift has been observed among many organisms across different taxa. In the northern hemisphere, ticks have been observed to have increased their latitudinal and altitudinal range limit. However, the elevational expansion at its northern distribution range remains largely unstudied. In this study we investigated the altitudinal distribution of the exophilic Ixodes ricinus and endophilic I. trianguliceps on two mountain slopes in Norway by assessing larval infestation rates on bank voles (Myodes glareolus).

METHODS

During 2017 and 2018, 1325 bank voles were captured during the spring, summer and autumn at ten trapping stations ranging from 100 m to 1000 m.a.s.l. in two study areas in southern Norway. We used generalized logistic regression models to estimate the prevalence of infestation of both tick species along gradients of altitude, considering study area, collection year and season, temperature, humidity and altitude interactions as extrinsic variables, and host body mass and sex as intrinsic predictor variables.

RESULTS

We found that both I. ricinus and I. trianguliceps infested bank voles at altitudes up to 1000 m.a.s.l., which is a substantial increase in altitude compared to previous findings for I. ricinus in this region. The infestation rates declined more rapidly with increasing altitude for I. ricinus compared to I. trianguliceps, indicating that the endophilic ecology of I. trianguliceps may provide shelter from limiting factors tied to altitude. Seasonal effects limited the occurrence of I. ricinus during autumn, but I. trianguliceps was found to infest rodents at all altitudes during all seasons of both years.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides new insights into the altitudinal distribution of two tick species at their northern distribution range, one with the potential to transmit zoonotic pathogens to both humans and livestock. With warming temperatures predicted to increase, and especially so in the northern regions, the risk of tick-borne infections is likely to become a concern at increasingly higher altitudes in the future.

Habitat amount and distribution modify community dynamics under climate change

Habitat fragmentation may present a major impediment to species range shifts caused by climate change, but how it affects local community dynamics in a changing climate has so far not been adequately investigated empirically. Using long-term monitoring data of butterfly assemblages, we tested the effects of the amount and distribution of semi-natural habitat (SNH), moderated by species traits, on climate-driven species turnover. We found that spatially dispersed SNH favoured the colonisation of warm-adapted and mobile species. In contrast, extinction risk of cold-adapted species increased in dispersed (as opposed to aggregated) habitats and when the amount of SNH was low. Strengthening habitat networks by maintaining or creating stepping-stone patches could thus allow warm-adapted species to expand their range, while increasing the area of natural habitat and its spatial cohesion may be important to aid the local persistence of species threatened by a warming climate.

Research and Conservation in the Greater Gombe Ecosystem: Challenges and Opportunities

The study of chimpanzees in Gombe National Park, Tanzania, started by Jane Goodall in 1960, provided pioneering accounts of chimpanzee behavior and ecology. With funding from multiple sources, including the Jane Goodall Institute (JGI) and grants from private foundations and federal programs, the project has continued for sixty years, providing a wealth of information about our evolutionary cousins. These chimpanzees face two main challenges to their survival: infectious disease - including simian immunodeficiency virus (SIVcpz), which can cause Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) in chimpanzees - and the deforestation of land outside the park. A health monitoring program has increased understanding of the pathogens affecting chimpanzees and has promoted measures to characterize and reduce disease risk. Deforestation reduces connections between Gombe and other chimpanzee populations, which can cause loss of genetic diversity. To promote habitat restoration, JGI facilitated participatory village land use planning, in which communities voluntarily allocated land to a network of Village Land Forest Reserves. Expected benefits to people include stabilizing watersheds, improving water supplies, and ensuring a supply of forest resources. Surveys and genetic analyses confirm that chimpanzees persist on village lands and remain connected to the Gombe population. Many challenges remain, but the regeneration of natural forest on previously degraded lands provides hope that conservation solutions can be found that benefit both people and wildlife. Conservation work in the Greater Gombe Ecosystem has helped promote broader efforts to plan and work for conservation elsewhere in Tanzania and across Africa.

Consistent population declines but idiosyncratic range shifts in Alpine orchids under global change

Mountains are plant biodiversity hotspots considered particularly vulnerable to multiple environmental changes. Here, we quantify population changes and range-shift dynamics along elevational gradients over the last three decades for c. two-thirds of the orchid species of the European Alps. Local extinctions were more likely for small populations, after habitat alteration, and predominated at the rear edge of species’ ranges. Except for the most thermophilic species and wetland specialists, population density decreased over time. Declines were more pronounced for rear-edge populations, possibly due to multiple pressures such as climate warming, habitat alteration, and mismatched ecological interactions. Besides these demographic trends, different species exhibited idiosyncratic range shifts with more than 50% of the species lagging behind climate warming. Our study highlights the importance of long-term monitoring of populations and range distributions at fine spatial resolution to be able to fully understand the consequences of global change for orchids.

Many mountain species are threatened by climate change and habitat loss. Here, the authors investigate population declines and range shifts of orchids in an alpine region in NE Italy over 28 years. For most species, population size decreased, while range shifts were idiosyncratic with over half of the species lagging behind climate change.

Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions

The rapid anthropogenic climate change that is being experienced in the early twenty-first century is intimately entwined with the health and functioning of the biosphere. Climate change is impacting ecosystems through changes in mean conditions and in climate variability, coupled with other associated changes such as increased ocean acidification and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. It also interacts with other pressures on ecosystems, including degradation, defaunation and fragmentation. There is a need to understand the ecological dynamics of these climate impacts, to identify hotspots of vulnerability and resilience and to identify management interventions that may assist biosphere resilience to climate change. At the same time, ecosystems can also assist in the mitigation of, and adaptation to, climate change. The mechanisms, potential and limits of such nature-based solutions to climate change need to be explored and quantified. This paper introduces a thematic issue dedicated to the interaction between climate change and the biosphere. It explores novel perspectives on how ecosystems respond to climate change, how ecosystem resilience can be enhanced and how ecosystems can assist in addressing the challenge of a changing climate. It draws on a Royal Society-National Academy of Sciences Forum held in Washington DC in November 2018, where these themes and issues were discussed. We conclude by identifying some priorities for academic research and practical implementation, in order to maximize the potential for maintaining a diverse, resilient and well-functioning biosphere under the challenging conditions of the twenty-first century. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions'.