Surveillance of cirrhosis for hepatocellular carcinoma: a cost-utility analysis

Predicting early recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma after thermal ablation based on longitudinal MRI with a deep learning approach

BACKGROUND

Accurate prediction of early recurrence (ER) is essential to improve the prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) underwent thermal ablation (TA). Therefore, a deep learning model system using longitudinal magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) was developed to predict ER of patients with HCC.

METHODS

From 2014, April to 2017, May, a total of 289 eligible patients with HCC underwent TA were retrospectively enrolled from 3 hospitals and assigned into one training cohort (n = 254) and one external testing cohort (n = 35). Two deep learning models (Pre and PrePost) were developed using the pre-operative MRI and longitudinal MRI (pre- and post-operative) to predict ER for the patients with HCC after TA, respectively. Then, an integrated model (DL_Clinical) incorporating PrePost model signature and clinical variables was built for post-ablation ER risk stratification for the patients with HCC.

RESULTS

In the external testing cohort, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the DL_Clinical model was better than that of the Clinical (0.740 vs 0.571), Pre (0.740 vs 0.648), and PrePost model (0.740 vs 0.689). Additionally, there was a significant difference in RFS between the high- and low-risk groups which were divided by the DL_Clinical model (P = .04).

CONCLUSIONS

The PrePost model developed using longitudinal MRI showed outstanding performance for predicting post-ablation ER of HCC. The DL_Clinical model could stratify the patients into high- and low-risk groups, which may help physicians in treatment and surveillance strategy selection in clinical practice.

Cost-Effectiveness of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Surveillance Strategies in Patients With Compensated Liver Cirrhosis in the United Kingdom

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness (CE) of 4 hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance strategies in the United Kingdom, the GAAD algorithm, which combines Gender (biological sex) and Age with Elecsys® biomarker assays, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and protein induced by vitamin K absence-II (previously Des-γ-carboxy prothrombin); ultrasound (US); US + AFP and GAAD + US.

METHODS

A de novo microsimulation state-transition Markov model was developed in Microsoft Excel® from the perspective of the United Kingdom National Health Service to calculate life-years, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs, incremental CE ratios, and net monetary benefits. Parameters were sourced from peer-reviewed published literature, national guidelines, and public cost databases. Sensitivity and scenario analyses were performed to evaluate the impact of parameter and structural uncertainty on the results.

RESULTS

In a simulated cohort of 100 000 patients, discounted costs and QALYs per patient were £8663 and 6·066 for US, £9095 and 6·076 for US + AFP, £8719 and 6·078 for GAAD alone, and £9114 and 6·086 for GAAD + US. At a CE threshold of £20 000/QALY, GAAD was the most cost-effective strategy; however, although most costly, GAAD + US was the most clinically effective. Sensitivity and scenario analyses indicated that HCC incidence along with costs associated with diagnostic performance influence CE.

CONCLUSION

Considering the cost of US and low incidence of HCC in the United Kingdom, this study suggests that GAAD alone or in combination with US are cost-effective surveillance strategies compared with US and US + AFP. Although GAAD + US showed the highest QALY increase, GAAD alone is considered preferable regarding CE; however, better performance estimates for GAAD + US are needed to confirm.

Hepatocellular Cancer Surveillance in Patients with Advanced Chronic Liver Disease

BACKGROUND

Patients with advanced chronic liver disease (ACLD) are at high risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Therefore, biannual surveillance is recommended. This large-scale multicenter study aimed to stratify the risk of HCC development in ACLD.

METHODS

From 3016 patients with ACLD screened in 17 European and Chinese centers, 2340 patients with liver stiffness measurement (LSM) determined using different techniques (two-dimensional shear-wave elastography [2D-SWE], transient elastography, and point shear-wave elastography) and with different disease severities were included. Cox regression was used to explore risk factors for HCC. We used these data to create an algorithm, named PLEASE, but referred to in this manuscript as "the algorithm"; the algorithm was validated in internal and two external cohorts across elastography techniques.

RESULTS

HCC developed in 127 (5.4%) patients during follow-up. LSM by 2D-SWE (hazard ratio: 2.28) was found to be associated with developing HCC, alongside age, sex, etiology, and platelet count (C-index: 0.8428). We thus established the algorithm with applicable cutoffs, assigning a maximum of six points: platelet count less than 150×109/l, LSM greater than or equal to 15 kPa, age greater than or equal to 50 years, male sex, controlled/uncontrolled viral hepatitis, or presence of steatotic liver diseases. Within 2 years, with a median follow-up of 13.7 months, patients in the high-risk group (≥4 points) had an HCC incidence of 15.6% (95% confidence interval [CI], 12.1% to 18.7%) compared with the low-risk group, at 1.7% (95% CI, 0.9% to 2.5%).

CONCLUSIONS

Our algorithm stratified patients into two groups: those at higher risk of developing HCC and those at lower risk. Our data provide equipoise to test the prospective utility of the algorithm with respect to clinical decisions about screening patients with ACLD for incident HCC. (Funded by the German Research Foundation and others; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03389152.).

Early screening for chronic liver disease: impact of a FIB-4 first integrated care pathway to identify patients with significant fibrosis

Liver fibrosis is often undetected whereas it is the determinant of liver-related mortality. We evaluate a pathway based on the systematic calculation of FIB-4 to screen for advanced hepatic fibrosis. Systematic calculation of FIB-4 was implemented in the centralized laboratory of a French University Hospital in 4 pilot departments. If ≥ 2.67, the FIB-4 result was returned to the prescribers, for patients between 18 and 70 years of age, with an incentive to measure liver stiffness by vibration controlled transient elastography. During a 2-years period, a FIB-4 was calculated in 2963 patients and 135 were ≥ 2.67 (4.6%). After exclusion of patients with a known cause of elevated FIB-4, 47 patients (34.8%) were eligible for elastography. Forty patients underwent elastography, but only 15% (7/47) at the spontaneous request of the referring physician. Fifteen patients were identified with significant fibrosis, among which 8 attended the scheduled specialist consultation, all with a confirmed diagnosis of cirrhosis. A sequential pathway based on the systematic calculation of FIB-4 enables the identification of patients with significant unknown liver fibrosis, allowing to refer them to specialized care. Raising awareness is essential to improve the care pathway.

British Society of Gastroenterology guidelines for the management of hepatocellular carcinoma in adults

Deaths from the majority of cancers are falling globally, but the incidence and mortality from hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is increasing in the United Kingdom and in other Western countries. HCC is a highly fatal cancer, often diagnosed late, with an incidence to mortality ratio that approaches 1. Despite there being a number of treatment options, including those associated with good medium to long-term survival, 5-year survival from HCC in the UK remains below 20%. Sex, ethnicity and deprivation are important demographics for the incidence of, and/or survival from, HCC. These clinical practice guidelines will provide evidence-based advice for the assessment and management of patients with HCC. The clinical and scientific data underpinning the recommendations we make are summarised in detail. Much of the content will have broad relevance, but the treatment algorithms are based on therapies that are available in the UK and have regulatory approval for use in the National Health Service.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma Incidence Threshold for Surveillance in Virologically Cured Hepatitis C Individuals

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Guidelines recommend biannual surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in hepatitis C individuals with cirrhosis if the HCC incidence rate is above 1.5 per 100 person-years (PY). However, the incidence threshold for surveillance in individuals who achieve a virologic cure is unknown. We estimated the HCC incidence rate above which routine HCC surveillance is cost-effective in this growing population of virologically cured hepatitis C individuals with cirrhosis or advanced fibrosis.

METHODS

We developed a Markov-based microsimulation model of the natural history of HCC in individuals with hepatitis C who achieved virologic cure with oral direct-acting antivirals. We used published data on the natural history of hepatitis C, competing risk post virologic cure, HCC tumor progression, real-world HCC surveillance adherence, contemporary HCC treatment options and associated costs, and utilities of different health states. We estimated the HCC incidence above which biannual HCC surveillance using ultrasound and alpha-fetoprotein would be cost-effective.

RESULTS

In virologically cured hepatitis C individuals with cirrhosis or advanced fibrosis, HCC surveillance is cost-effective if HCC incidence exceeds 0.7 per 100 PY using $100,000 per quality-adjusted life year willingness-to-pay. At this HCC incidence, routine HCC surveillance would result in 2650 and 5700 additional life years per 100,000 cirrhosis and advanced fibrosis persons, respectively, compared with no surveillance. At $150,000 willingness-to-pay, surveillance is cost-effective if HCC incidence exceeds 0.4 per 100 PY. Sensitivity analysis showed that the threshold mostly remained below 1.5 per 100 PY.

CONCLUSIONS

The contemporary HCC incidence threshold is much lower than the previous 1.5% incidence value used to guide HCC surveillance decisions. Updating clinical guidelines could improve the early diagnosis of HCC.

Effectiveness of HCC surveillance programs using multitarget blood test: A modeling study

BACKGROUND

The effectiveness of ultrasound-based surveillance for HCC in patients with cirrhosis is limited by suboptimal sensitivity for early tumor detection and poor adherence. Emerging blood-based biomarkers have been proposed as an alternative surveillance strategy. We aimed to evaluate the comparative effectiveness of a multitarget HCC blood test (mt-HBT)-with and without improved adherence-against ultrasound-based HCC surveillance.

METHODS

We developed a Markov-based mathematical model that simulated a virtual trial in patients with compensated cirrhosis comparing potential surveillance strategies: biannual surveillance using ultrasound, ultrasound plus AFP, and mt-HBT with or without improved adherence (+10% increase). We used published data to inform underlying liver disease progression rates, HCC tumor growth patterns, performance characteristics of surveillance modalities, and efficacy of treatments. Primary outcomes of interest were the number of early-stage HCCs detected and life years gained.

RESULTS

Per 100,000 patients with cirrhosis, mt-HBT detected 1680 more early-stage HCCs than ultrasound alone and 350 more early-stage HCCs than ultrasound + AFP, yielding an additional 5720 and 1000 life years, respectively. mt-HBT with improved adherence detected 2200 more early-stage HCCs than ultrasound and 880 more early-stage HCCs than ultrasound + AFP, yielding an additional 8140 and 3420 life years, respectively. The number of screening tests needed to detect one HCC case was 139 with ultrasound, 122 with ultrasound + AFP, 119 with mt-HBT, and 124 with mt-HBT with improved adherence.

CONCLUSIONS

mt-HBT is a promising alternative to ultrasound-based HCC surveillance, particularly given anticipated improved adherence with blood-based biomarkers could increase HCC surveillance effectiveness.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk Scores Predict Patients Under Surveillance at Low Risk of Benefit and High Risk of Harm

AIMS

Surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is recommended for patients with cirrhosis. Multiple risk scores aim to stratify HCC risk, potentially allowing individualized surveillance strategies. We sought to validate four risk scores and quantify the consequences of surveillance via the calculation of numbers needed to benefit (NNB) and harm (NNH) according to classification by risk score strata.

METHODS

Data were collected on 482 patients with cirrhosis during 2013-2014, with follow-up until 31/12/2019. Risk scores (aMAP, Toronto risk index, ADRESS HCC, HCC risk score) were derived from index clinic results. The area under the receiving operating characteristic curve (AUC) was calculated for each. Additionally, per-risk strata, NNB was calculated as total surveillance ultrasounds per surveillance diagnosed early HCC (stage 0/A) and NNH as total ultrasounds performed per false positive (abnormal surveillance with normal follow-up imaging).

RESULTS

22 (4.6%) patients developed HCC. 77% (17/22) were diagnosed through surveillance, of which 13/17 (76%) were early stage. There were 88 false positives and no false negatives (normal surveillance result however subsequent HCC detection). Overall NNB and NNH were 241 and 36, respectively. No score was significantly superior using AUC. Patients classified as low risk demonstrated no surveillance benefit (AMAP, THRI) or had a high NNB of > 300/900 (ADRESS HCC, HCC risk score), with low NNH (24-38).

CONCLUSION

Given the lack of benefit and increased harm through false positives in low-risk groups, a risk-based surveillance strategy may have the potential to reduce patient harm and increase benefit from HCC surveillance.

CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION

This was not a clinical trial and the study was not pre-registered.

What to do about hepatocellular carcinoma: Recommendations for health authorities from the International Liver Cancer Association

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a major public health problem worldwide for which the incidence and mortality are similar, pointing to the lack of effective treatment options. Knowing the different issues involved in the management of HCC, from risk factors to screening and management, is essential to improve the prognosis and quality of life of affected individuals. This document summarises the current state of knowledge and the unmet needs for all the different stakeholders in the care of liver cancer, meaning patients, relatives, physicians, regulatory agencies and health authorities so that optimal care can be delivered to patients. The document was commissioned by the International Liver Cancer Association and was reviewed by senior members, including two ex-presidents of the Association. This document lays out the recommended approaches to the societal management of HCC based on the economic status of a given region.

Duration and cost-effectiveness of hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance in hepatitis C patients after viral eradication

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Successful treatment of chronic hepatitis C with oral direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) leads to virological cure, however, the subsequent risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) persists. Our objective was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of biannual surveillance for HCC in patients cured of hepatitis C and the optimal age to stop surveillance.

METHODS

We developed a microsimulation model of the natural history of HCC in individuals with hepatitis C and advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis who achieved virological cure with oral DAAs. We used published data on HCC incidence, tumor progression, real-world HCC surveillance adherence, and costs and utilities of different health states. We compared biannual HCC surveillance using ultrasound and alpha-fetoprotein for varying durations of surveillance (from 5 years to lifetime) vs. no surveillance.

RESULTS

In virologically cured patients with cirrhosis, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of biannual surveillance remained below $150,000 per additional quality-adjusted life year (QALY) (range: $79,500-$94,800) when surveillance was stopped at age 70, irrespective of the starting age (40-65). Compared with no surveillance, surveillance detected 130 additional HCCs in 'very early'/early stage and yielded 51 additional QALYs per 1,000 patients with cirrhosis. In virologically cured patients with advanced fibrosis, the ICER of biannual surveillance remained below $150,000/QALY (range: $124,600-$129,800) when surveillance was stopped at age 60, irrespective of the starting age (40-50). Compared with no surveillance, surveillance detected 24 additional HCCs in 'very early'/early stage and yielded 12 additional QALYs per 1,000 patients with advanced fibrosis.

CONCLUSION

Biannual surveillance for HCC in patients cured of hepatitis C is cost-effective until the age of 70 for patients with cirrhosis, and until the age of 60 for patients with stable advanced fibrosis.

LAY SUMMARY

Individuals who are cured of hepatitis C using oral antiviral drugs remain at risk of developing liver cancer. The value of lifelong screening for liver cancer in these individuals is not known. By simulating the life course of hepatitis C cured individuals, we found that ultrasound-based biannual screening for liver cancer is cost-effective up to age 70 in those with cirrhosis and up to age 60 in those with stable advanced fibrosis.

Surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma with a 3-months interval in "extremely high-risk" patients does not further improve survival

BACKGROUND

An enhanced surveillance schedule has been proposed for cirrhotics with viral etiology, who are considered at extremely high-risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

AIMS

We compared the 3- and 6-months surveillance interval, evaluating cancer stage at diagnosis and patient survival.

METHODS

Data of 777 HBV and HCV cirrhotic patients with HCC diagnosed under a 3-months (n = 109, 3MS group) or a 6-months (n = 668, 6MS group) surveillance were retrieved from the Italian Liver Cancer database. Survival in the 3MS group was considered as observed and adjusted for lead-time bias, and survival analysis was repeated after a propensity score matching.

RESULTS

The 3-months surveillance interval neither reduced the share of patients diagnosed outside the Milano criteria, nor increased their probability to receive curative treatments. The median survival of 6MS patients (55.0 months [45.9-64.0]) was not significantly different from the observed (47.0 months [35.0-58.9]; p = 0.43) and adjusted (44.9 months [33.4-56.4]; p = 0.30) survival of 3MS patients. A propensity score analysis confirmed the absence of a survival advantage for 3MS patients.

CONCLUSIONS

A tightening of surveillance schedule does not increase the diagnosis of early-stage tumors, the feasibility of curative treatments and the survival. Therefore, we should maintain the 6-months interval in the surveillance of viral cirrhotics.

The second Mexican consensus on hepatocellular carcinoma. Part I: Epidemiology and diagnosis

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is more frequently manifesting as one of the main complications of cirrhosis of the liver, its principal risk factor. There have been modifications in its incidence over the past decade, related to an epidemiologic transition in the etiology of cirrhosis, with a decrease in the prevalence of hepatitis C and an increase in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) as a cause, as well as the development of HCC in the non-cirrhotic liver due to NAFLD. Genetic markers associated with the disease have been identified, and surveillance and diagnosis have improved. Regarding treatment, surgical techniques, in both resection and transplantation, have advanced and radiologic techniques, at the curative stage of the disease, have enhanced survival in those patients. And finally, there have been radical changes in the systemic approach, with much more optimistic expectations, when compared with the options available a decade ago. Therefore, the Asociación Mexicana de Hepatología decided to carry out the Second Mexican Consensus on Hepatocellular Carcinoma, which is an updated review of the available national and international evidence on the epidemiology, risk factors, surveillance, diagnosis, and treatment of the disease, to offer the Mexican physician current information on the different topics regarding hepatocellular carcinoma. In this first part of the document, the topics related to epidemiology and diagnosis are presented.

[Current Status and Future Directions of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Surveillance Test Based on Cost-effective Analysis]

Detection of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) at an early stage enables patients to receive curative treatment with survival gains. Current international liver society guidelines recommend the enrollment of patients at high risk for HCC in surveillance programs. In Korea, surveillance for HCC advocated for patients with chronic hepatitis B, chronic hepatitis C, and liver cirrhosis. The established surveillance tool for HCC is liver ultrasonography plus serum alpha-fetoprotein measurement every 6 months. However, there would be obstacles to the improvement of efficacy and cost-effectiveness of the HCC surveillance test. Assessing who is at risk of developing HCC remains incompletely validated. Also, which surveillance tools to use according to patients' characteristics are controversial. The present paper reviews the latest knowledge regarding the strategies and cost-effectiveness of HCC surveillance.

The global burden of cirrhosis: A review of disability-adjusted life-years lost and unmet needs

Cirrhosis is a burden on the individual and on public health. The World Health Organization's metric of public health burden is the disability-adjusted life-year (DALY), the sum of years of life lost due to premature death and years of life lived with disability. The more DALYs attributable to a disease, the greater its burden on public health. Cirrhosis was responsible for 26.8% fewer DALYs in 2019 than in 1990, which is positive, but the reduction in DALYs across the spectrum of diseases in and outside the liver was 34.4%. Hepatitis C (26% of DALYs), alcohol (24%), and hepatitis B (23%) contribute almost equally to the global burden of cirrhosis. The contribution from non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (8%) is small but increasing. There is substantial global variation in the burden and causes of cirrhosis. We find that the poorest countries carry the greatest burden of cirrhosis, and that this burden is primarily caused by cirrhosis from hepatitis B infection. Interventions targeting hepatitis B infection are known, but not fully implemented. In more affluent countries, alcohol and hepatitis C are the dominant causes of cirrhosis, but non-alcoholic fatty liver will likely become a dominant cause of cirrhosis in parallel with the increasing prevalence of obesity. We also argue that the World Health Organization underestimates the public health burden associated with cirrhosis because it assigns zero disability to compensated cirrhosis and considers decompensated cirrhosis as only mildly disabling.

A Systematic Review and Narrative Synthesis of Health Economic Evaluations of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Screening Strategies

OBJECTIVES

Many economic evaluations of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) screenings have been conducted; however, these vary substantially with regards to screening strategies, patient group, and setting. This review aims to report the current knowledge of the cost-effectiveness of screening and describe the published data.

METHODS

We conducted a search of biomedical and health economic databases up to July 2020. We included full and partial health economic studies if they evaluated the costs or outcomes of HCC screening strategies.

RESULTS

The review included 43 studies. Due to significant heterogeneity in key aspects across the studies, a narrative synthesis was conducted. Most studies reported using ultrasound or alpha fetoprotein as screening strategies. Screening intervals were mostly annual or biannual. Incidence, diagnostic performance, and health state utility values were the most critical parameters affecting the cost-effectiveness of screening. The majority of studies reported HCC screening to be cost-effective, with the biannual ultrasound + alpha fetoprotein standing out as the most cost-effective strategy. However, few studies considered the utilization rate, and none considered the diagnostic performance of ultrasound in the context of central adiposity. Computed tomography and magnetic resonance imaging were also evaluated, but its cost-effectiveness was still controversial.

CONCLUSIONS

Although many studies suggested HCC screening was cost-effective, substantial limitations of the quality of these studies means the results should be interpreted with caution. Future modeling studies should consider the impact of central adiposity on the precision of ultrasound, real-world utilization rates and projections of increased HCC incidence.

Surveillance as Determinant of Long-Term Survival in Non-Transplanted Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients

PURPOSE

We aimed at assessing the impact of surveillance on long-term survival in HCC patients.

METHODS

From the ITA.LI.CA database, we selected 1028 cases with long (≥5 years, LS group) and 2721 controls with short-term survival (<5 years, SS group). The association between surveillance and LS was adjusted for confounders by multivariable logistic regression analysis. Survival of surveilled patients was presented both as observed and corrected for the lead-time bias, and the comparison of survival between surveillance and no surveillance groups was also performed after balancing the baseline characteristics with inverse probability weights (IPW).

RESULTS

LS patients were more frequently diagnosed under surveillance (p < 0.0001), and had more favorable baseline characteristics. Surveillance was an independent predictor of LS (OR = 1.413, 95% CI 1.195-1.671; p < 0.0001). The observed and the lead-time corrected survival of surveilled patients were significantly longer compared to the survival of not surveilled patients (p < 0.0001 and p = 0.0008, respectively). In IPW adjusted populations, no survival differences were demonstrated between the two groups (p = 0.30).

CONCLUSIONS

Surveillance, increasing early-stage diagnosis and applicability of curative treatments, is a fundamental determinant of long-term survival in HCC patients. A wide implementation of surveillance programs should be pursued in order to improve HCC patients' prognosis.

Current status of image-based surveillance in hepatocellular carcinoma

Although the overall prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains poor, curative treatment may improve the survival of patients diagnosed at an early stage through surveillance. Accordingly, ultrasonography (US)-based HCC surveillance programs proposed in international society guidelines are now being implemented and regularly updated based on the latest evidence to improve their efficacy. Recently, other imaging modalities such as magnetic resonance imaging have shown potential as alternative surveillance tools based on individualized risk stratification. In this review article, we describe the current status of US-based surveillance for HCC and summarize the supporting evidence. We also discuss alternative surveillance imaging modalities that are currently being studied to validate their diagnostic performance and cost-effectiveness.

Argentinian clinical practice guideline for surveillance, diagnosis, staging and treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma

The A.A.E.E.H has developed this guideline for the best care of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) from Argentina. It was done from May 2018 to March 2020. Specific clinical research questions were systematically searched. The quality of evidence and level of recommendations were organized according to GRADE. HCC surveillance is strongly recommended with abdominal ultrasound (US) every six months in the population at risk for HCC (cirrhosis, hepatitis B or hepatitis C); it is suggested to add alpha-feto protein (AFP) levels in case of inexeperienced sonographers. Imaging diagnosis in patients at risk for HCC has high specificity and tumor biopsy is not mandatory. The Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer algorithm is strongly recommended for HCC staging and treatment-decision processes. Liver resection is strongly recommended for patients without portal hypertension and preserved liver function. Composite models are suggested for liver transplant selection criteria. Therapies for HCC with robust clinical evidence include transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) and first to second line systemic treatment options (sorafenib, lenvatinib, regorafenib, cabozantinib and ramucirumab). Immunotherapy with nivolumab and pembrolizumab has failed to show statistical benefit but the novel combination of atezolizumab plus bevacizumab has recently shown survival benefit over sorafenib in frontline.

Surveillance and diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) appears in most of cases in patients with advanced liver disease and is currently the primary cause of death in this population. Surveillance of HCC has been proposed and recommended in clinical guidelines to obtain earlier diagnosis, but it is still controversial and is not accepted worldwide.

AIM

To review the actual evidence to support the surveillance programs in patients with cirrhosis as well as the diagnosis procedure.

METHODS

Systematic review of recent literature of surveillance (tools, interval, cost-benefit, target population) and the role of imaging diagnosis (radiological non-invasive diagnosis, optimal modality and agents) of HCC.

RESULTS

The benefits of surveillance of HCC, mainly with ultrasonography, have been assessed in several prospective and retrospective analysis, although the percentage of patients diagnosed in surveillance programs is still low. Surveillance of HCC permits diagnosis in early stages allows better access to curative treatment and increases life expectancy in patients with cirrhosis. HCC is a tumor with special radiological characteristics in computed tomography and magnetic resonance imaging, which allows highly accurate diagnosis without routine biopsy confirmation. The actual recommendation is to perform biopsy only in indeterminate nodules.

CONCLUSION

The evidence supports the recommendation of performing surveillance of HCC in patients with cirrhosis susceptible of treatment, using ultrasonography every 6 mo. The diagnosis evaluation of HCC can be established based on noninvasive imaging criteria in patients with cirrhosis.

Status of, and strategies for improving, adherence to HCC screening and surveillance

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) represents the second leading cause of cancer deaths worldwide and the main cause of death in patients with cirrhosis. Secondary prevention of HCC can be accomplished through the serial application of screening tests (ultrasound with or without alpha-fetoprotein) to detect the presence of subclinical lesions amenable to potentially curative treatment, such as surgery and ablation. The efficacy of HCC screening is accepted by hepatologists in terms of decline in cancer-specific mortality, but its translation into clinical practice is less than ideal. The effectiveness of HCC screening is hampered by several factors: failure to identify at-risk patients, failure to access care and failure to detect HCC. For each of these steps, possible improvements are discussed in order to face the changing etiology of cirrhosis and expand the screening of at-risk populations by including selected nonalcoholic fatty liver disease patients.

Cost-Utility Analysis of Imaging for Surveillance and Diagnosis of Hepatocellular Carcinoma

OBJECTIVE. The purpose of this study is to compare imaging-based surveillance and diagnostic strategies in patients at risk for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) while taking into account technically inadequate examinations and patient compliance. MATERIALS AND METHODS. A Markov model simulated seven strategies for HCC surveillance and diagnosis in patients with cirrhosis: strategy A, ultrasound (US) for surveillance and CT for diagnosis; strategy B, US for surveillance and complete MRI for diagnosis; strategy C, US for surveillance and CT for inadequate or positive surveillance; strategy D, US for surveillance and complete MRI for inadequate or positive surveillance; strategy E, surveillance and diagnosis with CT followed by complete MRI for inadequate surveillance; strategy F, surveillance and diagnosis with complete MRI followed by CT for inadequate surveillance; and strategy G, surveillance with abbreviated MRI followed by CT for inadequate surveillance or complete MRI for positive surveillance. Two compliance scenarios were evaluated: optimal and conservative. For each scenario, the most cost-effective strategy was based on a willingness-to-pay threshold of $50,000 (Canadian) per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). Sensitivity analyses were performed. RESULTS. Base-case analysis revealed that strategy E was the most cost-effective when compliance was optimal ($13,631/QALY), and strategy G was the most cost-effective when compliance was conservative ($39,681/QALY). Sensitivity analyses supported the base-case analysis in the optimal compliance scenario, but several parameters altered the most cost-effective strategy in the conservative compliance scenario. CONCLUSION. In an optimal compliance scenario, CT for HCC surveillance and diagnosis and complete MRI for inadequate CT was most cost-effective. In a conservative compliance scenario, abbreviated MRI may be an alternative to US-based surveillance.

Magnetic Resonance Imaging Is Cost-Effective for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Surveillance in High-Risk Patients With Cirrhosis

Ultrasonography (US) is generally recommended for the surveillance of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients at risk. However, in patients with cirrhosis who have sufficiently high HCC incidence, surveillance using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) with liver-specific contrast showed markedly higher sensitivity in detecting early-stage HCC than US. This study aimed to compare the cost-effectiveness of semiannual surveillance using MRI versus US in patients with compensated cirrhosis and to identify the population that would gain optimal cost-effectiveness through MRI surveillance. We designed a Markov model to compare the expected costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), between MRI and US, with a 20-year time horizon, from the health care system perspective. The starting age of the cohort was 50 years, and 71% had hepatitis B virus-associated cirrhosis. The cycle length was 6 months. Transition probabilities and costs were obtained mainly from a prospective cohort study (the PRIUS study, NCT01446666). Cost and effectiveness were discounted at 5%. An incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated and tested using sensitivity analyses. The cost-effectiveness analysis indicated that the use of MRI incurred $5,562 incremental costs, 0.384 incremental life-years (LYs), and 0.221 incremental QALYs compared to US. The annual HCC incidence was the most influential factor on the ICER. The ICERs were $14,474/LY and $25,202/QALY at an annual HCC incidence of 3%. When the HCC incidence rate was >1.81%, the ICER was below $50,000/QALY. With increased HCC incidence, MRI surveillance was acceptable as a cost-effective option, even with an increased MRI/US cost ratio. Conclusion: Semiannual surveillance using MRI with liver-specific contrast may be more cost-effective than US in patients with virus-associated compensated cirrhosis at sufficiently high HCC risk despite the higher test cost of MRI.

Cost Effectiveness of Transplanting HCV-Infected Livers Into Uninfected Recipients With Preemptive Antiviral Therapy

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Guidelines do not recommend transplanting hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected livers into HCV-uninfected recipients. Direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) can be used to treat donor-derived HCV infection. However, the added cost of DAA therapy is a barrier. We evaluated the cost effectiveness of transplanting HCV-positive livers into HCV-negative patients with preemptive DAA therapy.

METHODS

A previously validated Markov-based mathematical model was adapted to simulate a virtual trial of HCV-negative patients on the liver transplant waitlist. The model compared long-term clinical and economic outcomes in patients willing to accept only HCV-negative livers vs those willing to accept any liver (HCV negative or HCV positive). Recipients of HCV-positive livers received 12 weeks of preemptive DAA therapy. The model incorporated data from the United Network for Organ Sharing and published sources.

RESULTS

For patients with a model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score ≥ 22, accepting any liver vs waiting for only HCV-negative livers was cost effective, with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios ranging from $56,100 to $91,700/quality-adjusted life-year. For patients with a MELD score of 28 (the median MELD score of patients undergoing transplantation in the United States), accepting any liver was cost effective at an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $62,600/quality-adjusted life year. In patients with low MELD scores, which may not accurately reflect disease severity, accepting any liver was cost effective, irrespective of MELD score.

CONCLUSIONS

Using a Markov-based mathematical model, we found transplanting HCV-positive livers into HCV-negative patients with preemptive DAA therapy to be a cost-effective strategy that could improve health outcomes.

Weighing the benefits of hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance against potential harms

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most common primary liver cancer and usually occurs in people with liver cirrhosis. Both the incidence and mortality of HCC are increasing worldwide, making it a growing public health issue. HCC diagnosed at an early stage has a far better prognosis than HCC diagnosed at a late stage, mainly because early stage HCC can be treated with potentially curative therapies such as resection and transplantation. This makes surveillance for HCC in patients with liver cirrhosis an important strategy in improving outcomes. Serial measurements of serum alpha fetoprotein (AFP) and abdominal ultrasound (US) are the established methods of surveillance. Surveillance using a combination of these techniques has reasonable sensitivity and specificity and reduces mortality from HCC by varying degrees, depending on the patient population. However, there are potential harms. The main harms result from false-positive and false-negative results. False-positive results commit patients to undergo further, potentially invasive and ultimately unnecessary diagnostic testing – which has both financial and emotional costs. False-negative results can have devastating consequences for patients who later present with more advanced HCC. Obesity is increasingly prevalent and reduces the sensitivity of US in detecting HCC. Obesity-associated non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) presents an additional challenge, where HCC can develop in the absence of cirrhosis. As surveillance with US and AFP is not cost-effective in NAFLD without cirrhosis, it is not advocated. These aspects will be reviewed.

Transplanting hepatitis C virus-positive livers into hepatitis C virus-negative patients with preemptive antiviral treatment: A modeling study

Under current guidelines, hepatitis C virus (HCV)-positive livers are not transplanted into HCV-negative recipients because of adverse posttransplant outcomes associated with allograft HCV infection. However, HCV can now be cured post-LT (liver transplant) using direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) with >90% success; therefore, HCV-negative patients on the LT waiting list may benefit from accepting HCV-positive organs with preemptive treatment. Our objective was to evaluate whether and in which HCV-negative patients the potential benefit of accepting an HCV-positive (i.e., viremic) organ outweighed the risks associated with HCV allograft infection. We developed a Markov-based mathematical model that simulated a virtual trial of HCV-negative patients on the LT waiting list to compare long-term outcomes in patients: (1) willing to accept any (HCV-negative or HCV-positive) liver versus (2) those willing to accept only HCV-negative livers. Patients receiving HCV-positive livers were treated preemptively with 12 weeks of DAA therapy and had a higher risk of graft failure than those receiving HCV-negative livers. The model incorporated data from published studies and the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS). We found that accepting any liver regardless of HCV status versus accepting only HCV-negative livers resulted in an increase in life expectancy when Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) was ≥20, and the benefit was highest at MELD 28 (0.172 additional life-years). The magnitude of clinical benefit was greater in UNOS regions with higher HCV-positive donor organ rates, that is, Regions 1, 2, 3, 10, and 11. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated that model outcomes were robust.

CONCLUSION

Transplanting HCV-positive livers into HCV-negative patients with preemptive DAA therapy could improve patient survival on the LT waiting list. Our analysis can help inform clinical trials and minimize patient harm. (Hepatology 2018;67:2085-2095).

Biomarkers development for early detection of cancer: Reducing the burden of cancer in the ageing society

The ageing process in the European society will become one of the key driving forces of change over the next decades. The specific demands of older generations constitute a key market of the future, and the pressure to improve and expand health services increases, especially as far as chronic diseases, such as cancer. Availability of cost effective cancer early detection protocols, based on predictive biomarkers, will improve patients management reducing consequently the high costs associated to treating patients when the disease is at an advanced stage.

Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease/Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis and Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Although hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is more common in the setting of cirrhosis, there is increasing evidence that it can develop in the setting of noncirrhotic nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD)/nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and that steatosis alone can promote carcinogenesis. In addition, obesity, diabetes, and metabolic syndrome are recognized risks for the development of HCC. A better understanding of the mechanisms involved in the development of NAFLD/NASH-related HCC will allow the discovery of new targets for therapeutic and preventive intervention. The surveillance for HCC in the setting of noncirrhotic NAFLD/NASH, obesity, diabetes, and metabolic syndrome remains an area of uncertainty.

Cost Effectiveness of Pre- vs Post-Liver Transplant Hepatitis C Treatment With Direct-Acting Antivirals

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Oral direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) for hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment offer new hope to both pre- and post-liver transplant (LT) patients. However, whether to treat HCV patients before vs after LT is not clear because treatment can improve liver function but could reduce the chance of receiving an LT while on the waiting list. Our objective was to evaluate the cost effectiveness of pre-LT vs post-LT HCV treatment with oral DAAs in decompensated cirrhotic patients on the LT waiting list.

METHODS

We used a validated mathematical model that simulated a virtual trial comparing long-term clinical and cost outcomes of pre-LT vs post-LT HCV treatment with oral DAAs. Model parameters were estimated from United Network for Organ Sharing data, SOLAR-1 and 2 trials, and published studies. For each strategy, we estimated the quality-adjusted life-year, life expectancy, cost, and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio.

RESULTS

For lower MELD scores, quality-adjusted life-years were higher with pre-LT HCV treatment compared with post-LT treatment. Pre-LT HCV treatment was cost saving in patients with MELD scores of 15 or less, and cost effective in patients with MELD scores of 16 to 21. In contrast, post-LT HCV treatment was cost effective in patients with MELD scores of 22 to 29 and cost saving if MELD scores were 30 or higher. Results varied by drug prices and by United Network for Organ Sharing regions.

CONCLUSIONS

For cirrhotic patients awaiting LT, pre-LT HCV treatment with DAAs is cost effective/saving in patients with MELD scores of 21 or lower, whereas post-LT HCV treatment is cost effective/saving in patients with MELD scores of 22 or higher.

SOX9 is a proliferation and stem cell factor in hepatocellular carcinoma and possess widespread prognostic significance in different cancer types

SOX9 has been previously shown to be involved in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and other types of cancer. However, prognostic studies so far involved rather small cohorts or lack external validation and experimental data. In this study, we firstly determined the histological expression pattern of SOX9 in human HCC by immunohistochemistry (n = 84) and evaluated its prognostic value. External cohorts of publicly available datasets were used to validate its prognostic relevance in HCC (n = 359) and other types of cancer including breast (n = 3951), ovarian (n = 1306), lung (n = 1926) and gastric cancer (n = 876). Functional SOX9 knock-down studies using siRNA and cancer stem cell models were generated in a panel of liver and breast cancer cell lines. High level of SOX9 was associated with poor survival even after adjustment for other prognostic factors in multivariate analysis (HR = 2.103, 95%CI = 1.064 to 4.156, p = 0.021). SOX9 prevailed a poor prognostic factor in all cancer validation cohorts (p<0.05). Reduced SOX9 expression by siRNA decreased the growth of liver cancer cells (p<0.05). SOX9 expression was associated with stem cell features in all tested cell lines (p<0.05). In conclusion, this study demonstrated in a large number of patients from multiple cohorts that high levels of SOX9 are a consistent negative prognostic factor.

Modeling the benefits and harms of surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma: Information to support informed choices

Surveillance by ultrasonography for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) for individuals with cirrhosis is recommended. There is debate regarding the effectiveness of surveillance in reducing mortality, and there is little information on the harms available to patients considering surveillance. The aim of this study was to provide estimates of both the benefit and harms of surveillance. A Markov model was built to simulate outcomes of individuals aged 50 years with well-compensated cirrhosis entering surveillance. Following identification of a focal lesion by ultrasound surveillance, further investigations were defined by the European Association for the Study of the Liver/European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer recall policy. Benefit and harm outcomes are expressed per 1,000 patients over 5 years. For every 1,000 patients in surveillance over 5 years, there are 13 fewer deaths (95% confidence interval [CI], 12-14) compared with no surveillance, equating to a number needed to screen to prevent one death from HCC of 77. In comparison, many more individuals experienced harm through surveillance. For every 1,000 patients, 150 (95% CI, 146-154) had one or more false-positive tests equating to a number needed to harm from surveillance of 7. As a consequence of a false-positive test, 65 individuals required at least one additional unnecessary computed tomography scan or magnetic resonance imaging and 39 required an unnecessary liver biopsy according to the recall policy. Surveillance benefits were sensitive to the incidence of HCC and the mortality benefit achieved by treatment. Harms were sensitive to the rates of false-positive testing and the frequency of liver biopsy.

CONCLUSION

There is a balance between the small absolute mortality benefit to surveillance for HCC and the numerically more frequent harms resulting from false-positive testing. Implementation of the recently revised American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases recommendations is predicted to reduce harms from unnecessary liver biopsy. (Hepatology 2017;66:1546-1555).

Improved Performance of Serum Alpha-Fetoprotein for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Diagnosis in HCV Cirrhosis with Normal Alanine Transaminase

Background: The utility of alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance is controversial. We aimed to identify factors associated with elevated AFP and define the patients for whom AFP is effective for surveillance.Methods: Data from the NCI Early Detection Research Network phase II HCC biomarker study (233 early-stage HCC and 412 cirrhotic patients) were analyzed. We analyzed 110 early-stage HCC and 362 cirrhotic hepatitis C virus (HCV) patients for external validation. Sensitivity, specificity, and area under the ROC curve (AUC) for HCC were calculated.Results: HCV etiology, non-White race, and serum alanine transaminase (ALT) predicted elevated AFP in cirrhotics. Non-White race and ALT predicted elevated AFP in HCC patients. Higher AUC of AFP for HCC was noted in patients with HBV (0.85) and alcohol (0.84), whereas it was lower in patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV; 0.80) and nonviral/alcohol etiology (0.76). The AUC was higher in HCV patients with serum ALT ≤40 U/L than patients with serum ALT >40 U/L (0.91 vs. 0.75, P < 0.01). At 90% specificity, the sensitivity of AFP increased from 44% to 74% in Whites with HCV and from 50% to 85% in non-Whites with HCV. There was a trend toward higher AUC in HCV patients with serum ALT ≤40 U/L than those with serum ALT >40 U/L (0.79 vs. 0.69, P = 0.10) in the validation cohort.Conclusions: The satisfactory performance of AFP in HCV patients with normal ALT should be further validated.Impact: The AFP may serve as a valuable surveillance test in HCV patients with normal ALT. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 26(7); 1085-92. ©2017 AACR.

Optimal timing of hepatitis C treatment for patients on the liver transplant waiting list

The availability of oral direct-acting antivirals has altered the hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment paradigm for both pre-liver transplant (LT) and post-LT patients. There is a perceived trade-off between pre-LT versus post-LT treatment of HCV-treatment may improve liver function but potentially decrease the likelihood of a necessary LT. Our objective was to identify LT-eligible patients with decompensated cirrhosis who would benefit (and not benefit) from pre-LT treatment based on their Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores. We simulated a virtual trial comparing long-term outcomes of pre-LT versus post-LT HCV treatment with oral direct-acting antivirals for patients with MELD scores between 10 and 40. We developed a Markov-based microsimulation model, which simulated the life course of patients on the transplant waiting list and after LT. Simulation of LT integrated data from recent trials of oral direct-acting antivirals (SOLAR 1 and 2), the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS), and other studies. The outcomes of the model included life expectancy, 1-year and 5-year patient survival, and mortality. Model-predicted patient survival was validated with UNOS data. We found that, at the national level, treating HCV before LT increased life expectancy if MELD was ≤27 but could decrease life expectancy at higher MELD scores. Depending on the UNOS region, the threshold MELD score to treat HCV pre-LT varied between 23 and 27 and was lower for UNOS regions 3, 10, and 11 and higher for regions 1, 2, 4, 5, 8, and 9. Sensitivity analysis showed that the thresholds were stable.

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest that the optimal MELD threshold below which decompensated cirrhosis patients should receive HCV treatment while awaiting LT is between 23 and 27, depending on the UNOS region. (Hepatology 2017;65:777-788).

Screening and surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma: perspective of a new era?

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the fifth most common cancer and the third most common cause of cancer-related death with an increasing prevalence worldwide. Early diagnosis of HCC is important since observational studies have reported that, in patients undergoing surveillance, cancer is diagnosed at an earlier stage with increased chances of curative therapies. Anyway, despite the extensive use of screening for HCC, its effectiveness is still a controversial topic since supporting evidence is not unequivocal and some issues need to be explored. Areas covered: The aim of this paper is to review main literature data supporting performance and effectiveness of screening for early detection of hepatocellular carcinoma. Expert commentary: Clinical benefit of screening for HCC is controversial and there are no sufficient data supporting its effectiveness in reducing cancer specific mortality. Since it is unlikely that RCTs will be performed in the future, surveillance should be still reasonably recommended in all at-risk population, until potential data against its effectiveness will be provided. In the future additional and more effective non-invasive tests will be needed, as well as proper surveillance intervals and risk threshold for surveillance enrollment must be assessed and refined by prospective studies.

Hepatocellular carcinoma

Liver cancer is the second leading cause of cancer-related deaths globally and has an incidence of approximately 850,000 new cases per year. Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) represents approximately 90% of all cases of primary liver cancer. The main risk factors for developing HCC are well known and include hepatitis B and C virus infection, alcohol intake and ingestion of the fungal metabolite aflatoxin B1. Additional risk factors such as non-alcoholic steatohepatitis are also emerging. Advances in the understanding of the molecular pathogenesis of HCC have led to identification of critical driver mutations; however, the most prevalent of these are not yet druggable targets. The molecular classification of HCC is not established, and the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer staging classification is the main clinical algorithm for the stratification of patients according to prognosis and treatment allocation. Surveillance programmes enable the detection of early-stage tumours that are amenable to curative therapies - resection, liver transplantation or local ablation. At more developed stages, only chemoembolization (for intermediate HCC) and sorafenib (for advanced HCC) have shown survival benefits. There are major unmet needs in HCC management that might be addressed through the discovery of new therapies and their combinations for use in the adjuvant setting and for intermediate- and advanced-stage disease. Moreover, biomarkers for therapy stratification, patient-tailored strategies targeting driver mutations and/or activating signalling cascades, and validated measurements of quality of life are needed. Recent failures in the testing of systemic drugs for intermediate and advanced stages have indicated a need to refine trial designs and to define novel approaches.

Surveillance of Hepatocellular Carcinoma and Diagnostic Algorithms in Patients with Liver Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most deadly complication of all major chronic liver diseases. Since early detection is the most significant determinant of overall survival, intense screening is of major importance.

METHODS

This overview is based on a systematic review of the available literature on HCC screening and surveillance in the PubMed database.

RESULTS

Over the last decades, major etiological risk factors were identified and the population at highest risk for the development of HCC was clearly defined. Screening in these patients has been repeatedly demonstrated to detect early tumor stages and to be cost-effective. Therefore, screening is recommended by all current guidelines and usually comprises a bi-annual ultrasound examination in Western countries. In some Asian countries biomarkers are also used; however, their efficiency for Western HCCs remains to be determined. The detection of lesions >1 cm during routine screening requires subsequent confirmation of HCC. The diagnosis can be accurately established by modern imaging techniques, i.e. computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging, in the majority of patients. In ambiguous cases and if radiological criteria are not met by two imaging techniques, biopsies remain the gold standard for diagnosis. Furthermore, histology is of key importance for the development of new diagnostic and predictive biomarkers.

CONCLUSION

Screening and detection algorithms for patients at risk for HCC are effective and should be rigorously implemented in clinical routine.

Evidence-Based Diagnosis, Staging, and Treatment of Patients With Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Evidence-based management of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is key to their optimal care. For individuals at risk for HCC, surveillance usually involves ultrasonography (there is controversy over use of biomarkers). A diagnosis of HCC is made based on findings from biopsy or imaging analyses. Molecular markers are not used in diagnosis or determination of prognosis and treatment for patients. The Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer algorithm is the most widely used staging system. Patients with single liver tumors or as many as 3 nodules ≤3 cm are classified as having very early or early-stage cancer and benefit from resection, transplantation, or ablation. Those with a greater tumor burden, confined to the liver, and who are free of symptoms are considered to have intermediate-stage cancer and can benefit from chemoembolization if they still have preserved liver function. Those with symptoms of HCC and/or vascular invasion and/or extrahepatic cancer are considered to have advanced-stage cancer and could benefit from treatment with the kinase inhibitor sorafenib. Patients with end-stage HCC have advanced liver disease that is not suitable for transplantation and/or have intense symptoms. Studies now aim to identify molecular markers and imaging techniques that can detect patients with HCC at earlier stages and better predict their survival time and response to treatment.

A national survey of the provision of ultrasound surveillance for the detection of hepatocellular carcinoma

OBJECTIVE

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), the sixth most common cancer worldwide and third most common cause of cancer related death, is closely associated with the presence of cirrhosis. Survival is determined by the stage of the cancer, with asymptomatic small tumours being more amenable to treatment. Early diagnosis is dependent on regular surveillance and the primary objective of this survey was to gain a better understanding of the baseline attitudes towards and provision of ultrasound surveillance (USS) HCC surveillance in the UK. In addition, information was obtained on the stages of cancer of the patients being referred to and discussed at regional multidisciplinary team meetings.

DESIGN

UK hepatologists, gastroenterologists and nurse specialists were sent a questionnaire survey regarding the provision of USS for detection of HCC in their respective hospitals.

RESULTS

Provision of surveillance was poor overall, with many hospitals lacking the necessary mechanisms to make abnormal results, if detected, known to referring clinicians. There was also a lack of standard data collection and in many hospitals basic information on the number of patients with cirrhosis and how many were developing HCC was not known. For the majority of new HCC cases was currently being made only at an incurable late stage (60%).

CONCLUSIONS

In the UK, the current provision of USS based HCC surveillance is poor and needs to be upgraded urgently.

HBsAg loss in a New Zealand community study with 28-year follow-up: rates, predictors and long-term outcomes

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

HBsAg seroclearance is the most desired endpoint in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) but occurs uncommonly. Recent studies have shown baseline HBsAg levels to be predictive of HBsAg loss up to 10 years. We report the 28-year rates of HBsAg loss and outcomes in the Kawerau study cohort from New Zealand, and assess the predictive value of baseline HBsAg levels to predict long-term HBsAg loss.

METHODS

The 1984 Kawerau community study identified 572 CHB patients, followed up for 28 years (41 % HBeAg-positive, median age 17 years, range 1-71 years). In 2012, surviving individuals attended a local clinic for an interview, blood tests and transient elastography.

RESULTS

384/218 (74 %) surviving individuals attended the clinic in 2012. Spontaneous HBsAg loss occurred in 145 (33 %) after 12,702 person-years of follow-up (1.14 per 100 person-years). Liver stiffness measurements were significantly lower if HBsAg loss occurred <50 years (mean 6.1 kPa) versus >50 years (mean 11.6 kPa), p = 0.0002. No HCC occurred following HBsAg loss (median follow-up 72 months). Predictors of HBsAg loss were older age and lower baseline HBsAg level (HR for HBsAg loss at 28 years 2.7 (95 % CI 1.7-4.2), 6.7 (95 % CI 3.9-11.4) and 9.4 (95 % CI 5.2-16.9), respectively, for HBsAg 1000-9999, 100-999 and <100 IU/mL compared to HBsAg >10,000 IU/mL at baseline, (p < 0.0001). Baseline HBsAg was a superior predictor of HBsAg loss compared to HBV DNA at all time-points: AUROC at 15 years: 0.87 (95 % CI 0.82-0.93) versus 0.73 (95 % CI 0.66-0.80) (p < 0.0001) and AUROC at 28 years: 0.74 (95 % CI 0.69-0.79) versus 0.67 (95 % CI 0.62-0.72) (p = 0.0007). The optimal cut-off HBsAg level to predict HBsAg seroclearance at 28 years is HBsAg <10,000 IU/mL (sensitivity 72 %, specificity 64 %, NPV 88 %).

CONCLUSIONS

Rates of HBsAg loss in our community cohort were high, and occurred earlier than previously reported. Earlier HBsAg loss was associated with less severe liver fibrosis. Baseline HBsAg level was a good predictor of long-term HBsAg loss up to 28 years and superior to HBV DNA.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma From Epidemiology to Prevention: Translating Knowledge into Practice

The epidemiology of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is characterized by dynamic temporal trends, several major established (i.e., HCV, HBV, alcohol) and emerging (i.e., diabetes, obesity, NAFLD) risk factors. Epidemiologic studies and clinical trials have identified additional demographic, clinical, pharmacological, genetic and life style factors that further affect or modify the likelihood of HCC and can be used in clinical practice to identify at-risk patients (i.e., risk stratification or prognostic algorithms) that can be targeted for prevention and early detection programs. These studies have also paved the way toward several well established preventive measures including HBV vaccination, HBV treatment, HCV treatment and HCC surveillance, and potential chemoprevention using statins, metformin or coffee. However, the effectiveness of HCC prevention in clinical practice and at the population level has lagged behind due to patient, provider, system, and societal factors. The Quality in the Continuum of Cancer Care model provides a framework for evaluating the HCC prevention processes, including potential failures that create a gap between efficacy and effectiveness.

Hospitalized Patients with Cirrhosis Should Be Screened for Clostridium difficile Colitis

BACKGROUND

Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) is an important public health problem in hospitalized patients. Patients with cirrhosis are particularly at risk of increased associated morbidity, mortality, and healthcare utilization from CDI.

AIM

The aim of this study was to assess the pharmacoeconomic impact of CDI screening on hospitalized patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

A Markov model was used to compare costs and outcomes of two strategies for the screening of CDI. The first strategy consisted of screening all patients for CDI and treating if detected (screening). In the second strategy, only patients found to have symptomatic CDI were treated (no screening). The probability of underlying CDI prevalence, symptomatic CDI infection, and likelihood of recurrent infection were varied in a sensitivity analysis. The costs of antibiotics and hospitalization were also assessed. Differences in outcome were expressed in ratio of the total costs associated with screening to the total costs associated without screening.

RESULTS

The results of our model showed that screening for CDI was consistently associated with improved healthcare outcomes and decreased healthcare utilization across all variables in the one- and two-way sensitivity analyses. Using baseline assumptions, the costs associated with the no screening strategy were 3.54 times that of the screening strategy. Moreover, the mortality for symptomatic CDI was lower in the screening strategy than the no screening strategy.

CONCLUSION

The screening strategy results in less healthcare utilization and improved clinical outcomes. Screening for CDI measures favorably.

Economic evaluation and budget impact analysis of the surveillance program for hepatocellular carcinoma in Thai chronic hepatitis B patients

BACKGROUND

The incidence rate and the treatment costs of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are high, especially in Thailand. Previous studies indicated that early detection by a surveillance program could help by down-staging. This study aimed to compare the costs and health outcomes associated with the introduction of a HCC surveillance program with no program and to estimate the budget impact if the HCC surveillance program were implemented.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A cost utility analysis using a decision tree and Markov models was used to compare costs and outcomes during the lifetime period based on a societal perspective between alternative HCC surveillance strategies with no program. Costs included direct medical, direct non-medical, and indirect costs. Health outcomes were measured as life years (LYs), and quality adjusted life years (QALYs). The results were presented in terms of the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) in Thai THB per QALY gained. One- way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were applied to investigate parameter uncertainties. Budget impact analysis (BIA) was performed based on the governmental perspective.

RESULTS

Semi-annual ultrasonography (US) and semi-annual ultrasonography plus alpha-fetoprotein (US plus AFP) as the first screening for HCC surveillance would be cost-effective options at the willingness to pay (WTP) threshold of 160,000 THB per QALY gained compared with no surveillance program (ICER=118,796 and ICER=123,451 THB/QALY), respectively. The semi-annual US plus AFP yielded more net monetary benefit, but caused a substantially higher budget (237 to 502 million THB) than semi-annual US (81 to 201 million THB) during the next ten fiscal years.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggested that a semi-annual US program should be used as the first screening for HCC surveillance and included in the benefit package of Thai health insurance schemes for both chronic hepatitis B males and females aged between 40-50 years. In addition, policy makers considered the program could be feasible, but additional evidence is needed to support the whole prevention system before the implementation of a strategic plan.

Screening for Viral Hepatitis and Hepatocellular Cancer

Accurate tests for at-risk populations are available for hepatitis B virus, hepatitis C virus (HCV), and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Effective treatments for all three diseases exist if diagnosed early. New antivirals are making a significant impact on HCV. Liver transplant is curative for early HCC and is prioritized by the United Network for Organ Sharing in the United States. Screening and surveillance for deadly disease only makes sense if there are identifiable populations at risk for the condition, there are sensitive and specific low-cost tests available for the condition, and there are effective treatments for the condition.