Changes in the pattern of infant and childhood mortality in upper river division, The Gambia, from 1989 to 1993

The effects of extreme heat on human health in tropical Africa

This review examines high-quality research evidence that synthesises the effects of extreme heat on human health in tropical Africa. Web of Science (WoS) was used to identify research articles on the effects extreme heat, humidity, Wet-bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT), apparent temperature, wind, Heat Index, Humidex, Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), heatwave, high temperature and hot climate on human health, human comfort, heat stress, heat rashes, and heat-related morbidity and mortality. A total of 5, 735 articles were initially identified, which were reduced to 100 based on a set of inclusion and exclusion criteria. The review discovered that temperatures up to 60°C have been recorded in the region and that extreme heat has many adverse effects on human health, such as worsening mental health in low-income adults, increasing the likelihood of miscarriage, and adverse effects on well-being and safety, psychological behaviour, efficiency, and social comfort of outdoor workers who spend long hours performing manual labour. Extreme heat raises the risk of death from heat-related disease, necessitating preventative measures such as adaptation methods to mitigate the adverse effects on vulnerable populations during hot weather. This study highlights the social inequalities in heat exposure and adverse health outcomes.

The Etiology of Childhood Pneumonia in The Gambia: Findings From the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) Study

BACKGROUND

Pneumonia remains the leading cause of death in young children globally. The changing epidemiology of pneumonia requires up-to-date data to guide both case management and prevention programs. The Gambia study site contributed a high child mortality, high pneumonia incidence, low HIV prevalence, Haemophilus influenzae type b and pneumococcal conjugate vaccines-vaccinated rural West African setting to the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) Study.

METHODS

The PERCH study was a 7-country case-control study of the etiology of hospitalized severe pneumonia in children 1-59 months of age in low and middle-income countries. Culture and nucleic acid detection methods were used to test nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal swabs, blood, induced sputum and, in selected cases, lung or pleural fluid aspirates. Etiology was determined by integrating case and control data from multiple specimens using the PERCH integrated analysis based on Bayesian probabilistic methods.

RESULTS

At The Gambia study site, 638 cases of World Health Organization-defined severe and very severe pneumonia (286 of which were chest radiograph [CXR]-positive and HIV-negative) and 654 age-frequency matched controls were enrolled. Viral causes predominated overall (viral 58% vs. bacterial 28%), and of CXR-positive cases respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) accounted for 37%, Streptococcus pneumoniae 13% and parainfluenza was responsible for 9%. Nevertheless, among very severe cases bacterial causes dominated (77% bacterial vs. 11% viral), led by S. pneumoniae (41%); Mycobacterium tuberculosis, not included in "bacterial", accounted for 9%. 93% and 80% of controls ≥1 year of age were, respectively, fully vaccinated for age against Haemophilus influenzae and S. pneumoniae.

CONCLUSIONS

Viral causes, notably RSV, predominated in The Gambia overall, but bacterial causes dominated the severest cases. Efforts must continue to prevent disease by optimizing access to existing vaccines, and to develop new vaccines, notably against RSV. A continued emphasis on appropriate case management of severe pneumonia remains important.

Long-term trends in seasonality of mortality in urban Madagascar: the role of the epidemiological transition

Background: Seasonal patterns of mortality have been identified in Sub-Saharan Africa but their changes over time are not well documented.Objective: Based on death notification data from Antananarivo, the capital city of Madagascar, this study assesses seasonal patterns of all-cause and cause-specific mortality by age groups and evaluates how these patterns changed over the period 1976-2015.Methods: Monthly numbers of deaths by cause were obtained from death registers maintained by the Municipal Hygiene Office in charge of verifying deaths before the issuance of burial permits. Generalized Additive Mixed regression models (GAMM) were used to test for seasonality in mortality and its changes over the last four decades, controlling for long-term trends in mortality.Results: Among children, risks of dying were the highest during the hot and rainy season, but seasonality in child mortality has significantly declined since the mid-1970s, as a result of declines in the burden of infectious diseases and nutritional deficiencies. In adults aged 60 and above, all-cause mortality rates are the highest in the dry and cold season, due to peaks in cardiovascular diseases, with little change over time. Overall, changes in the seasonality of all-cause mortality have been driven by shifts in the hierarchy of causes of death, while changes in the seasonality within broad categories of causes of death have been modest.Conclusion: Shifts in disease patterns brought about by the epidemiological transition, rather than changes in seasonal variation in cause-specific mortality, are the main drivers of trends in the seasonality of all-cause mortality.

Under-five mortality in the Rongo Sub-County of Migori County, Kenya: Experience of the Lwala Community Alliance 2007-2017 with evidence from a cross-sectional survey

Introduction

Childhood mortality remains a pressing problem in rural Kenya, and reducing under-five deaths is a key target of the Sustainable Development Goals. We aim to describe the reduction in under-five mortality in a rural Kenyan community served by the Lwala Community Alliance and factors associated with under-five mortality in this community.

Methods

A cross-sectional survey containing a complete birth history was administered to a representative sample of the catchment area of the Lwala Community Alliance. Survival analysis techniques were used to describe temporal trends and risk factors related to under-five mortality.

Results

1,362 children were included in the study, and 91 children died before the fifth birthday. The most common causes of death among children under five were malaria (19%), respiratory infection (13%), and anemia (11%). The under-five mortality rate was 104.8 per 1,000 live births from 1999 to 2006 and 53.0 per 1,000 after the founding of the Lwala Community Alliance in 2007. Factors associated with under-five mortality included year of birth (HR 0.931; 95% CI: 0.877, 0.988; p = 0.019), multiple-gestation pregnancy (HR 6.201; 95% CI: 2.073, 18.555; p < 0.001), and birth in the long rain season (HR 1.981; 95% CI: 1.350, 2.907; p < 0.001). Birth spacing greater than 18 months was negatively associated with under-five mortality (HR 0.345; 95% CI: 0.203, 0.587; p < 0.001).

Conclusions

There was a significant decrease in under-five mortality before and after the presence of the Lwala Community Alliance. Multiple-gestation pregnancies, birth season, and short birth spacing were associated with under-five mortality and provide possible targets to further reduce mortality in the region. This provides both hyper-local data necessary for implementation efforts and generalizable data and sampling methods that may be useful for other implementing organizations in sub-Saharan Africa.

Zinc as an adjunct therapy in the management of severe pneumonia among Gambian children: randomized controlled trial

Background

The benefit of zinc as an adjunct therapy for severe pneumonia is not established. We assessed the benefit of adjunct zinc therapy for severe pneumonia in children and determined whether the study children were zinc deficient.

Methods

This was a randomized, parallel group, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial with an allocation ratio of 1:1 conducted in children with severe pneumonia to evaluate the efficacy of daily zinc as an adjunct treatment in preventing 'treatment failure' (presence of any sign of severe pneumonia) on day-5 and day-10 and in reducing the time to resolution of signs of severe pneumonia. Six hundred and four children 2-59 months of age presenting with severe pneumonia at six urban and rural health care facilities in The Gambia were individually randomised to receive placebo (n = 301) or zinc (n = 303) for seven days. To determine if the study children were zinc deficient, supplementation was continued in a randomly selected subgroup of 121 children from each arm for six months post-enrolment, and height-gain, nutritional status, plasma zinc concentrations, and immune competence were compared.

Results

Percentage of treatment failure were similar in placebo and zinc arms both on day 5 (14.0% vs 14.1%) and day 10 (5.2% vs 5.9%). The time to recovery from lower chest wall indrawing and sternal retraction was longer in the placebo compared to zinc arm (24.4 vs 23.0 hours; P = 0.011 and 18.7 vs 11.0 hours; P = 0.006 respectively). The time to resolution for all respiratory symptoms of severity was not significantly different between placebo and zinc arms (42.3 vs 30.9 hours respectively; P = 0.242). In the six months follow-up sub-group, there was no significant difference in height gain, height-for-age and weight-for-height Z-scores, mid upper arm circumference, plasma zinc concentrations, and anergy at six months post-enrolment.

Conclusions

In this population, zinc given as an adjunct treatment for severe pneumonia showed no benefit in treatment failure rates, or clinically important benefit in time to recovery from respiratory symptoms and showed marginal benefit in rapidity of resolution of some signs of severity. This finding does not support routine use of zinc as an adjunct treatment in severe pneumonia in generally zinc replete children.

Trial registration

ISRCTN33548493.

A systematic review and synthesis of the strengths and limitations of measuring malaria mortality through verbal autopsy

Background

Lack of valid and reliable data on malaria deaths continues to be a problem that plagues the global health community. To address this gap, the verbal autopsy (VA) method was developed to ascertain cause of death at the population level. Despite the adoption and wide use of VA, there are many recognized limitations of VA tools and methods, especially for measuring malaria mortality. This study synthesizes the strengths and limitations of existing VA tools and methods for measuring malaria mortality (MM) in low- and middle-income countries through a systematic literature review.

Methods

The authors searched PubMed, Cochrane Library, Popline, WHOLIS, Google Scholar, and INDEPTH Network Health and Demographic Surveillance System sites’ websites from 1 January 1990 to 15 January 2016 for articles and reports on MM measurement through VA. Inclusion criteria: article presented results from a VA study where malaria was a cause of death; article discussed limitations/challenges related to measurement of MM through VA. Two authors independently searched the databases and websites and conducted a synthesis of articles using a standard matrix.

Results

The authors identified 828 publications; 88 were included in the final review. Most publications were VA studies; others were systematic reviews discussing VA tools or methods; editorials or commentaries; and studies using VA data to develop MM estimates. The main limitation were low sensitivity and specificity of VA tools for measuring MM. Other limitations included lack of standardized VA tools and methods, lack of a ‘true’ gold standard to assess accuracy of VA malaria mortality.

Conclusions

Existing VA tools and methods for measuring MM have limitations. Given the need for data to measure progress toward the World Health Organization’s Global Technical Strategy for Malaria 2016–2030 goals, the malaria community should define strategies for improving MM estimates, including exploring whether VA tools and methods could be further improved. Longer term strategies should focus on improving countries’ vital registration systems for more robust and timely cause of death data.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12936-017-2071-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Seasonal variation in child mortality in rural Guinea-Bissau

Objectives

In many African countries, child mortality is higher in the rainy season than in the dry season. We investigated the effect of season on child mortality by time periods, sex and age in rural Guinea‐Bissau.

Methods

Bandim health project follows children under‐five in a health and demographic surveillance system in rural Guinea‐Bissau. We compared the mortality in the rainy season (June to November) between 1990 and 2013 with the mortality in the dry season (December to May) in Cox proportional hazards models providing rainy vs. dry season mortality rate ratios (r/d‐mrr). Seasonal effects were estimated in strata defined by time periods with different frequency of vaccination campaigns, sex and age (<1 month, 1–11 months, 12–59 months). Verbal autopsies were interpreted using InterVa‐4 software.

Results

From 1990 to 2013, overall mortality was declined by almost two‐thirds among 81 292 children (10 588 deaths). Mortality was 51% (95% ci: 45–58%) higher in the rainy season than in the dry season throughout the study period. The seasonal difference increased significantly with age, the r/d‐mrr being 0.94 (0.86–1.03) among neonates, 1.57 (1.46–1.69) in post‐neonatal infants and 1.83 (1.72–1.95) in under‐five children (P for same effect <0.001). According to the InterVa, malaria deaths were the main reason for the seasonal mortality difference, causing 50% of all deaths in the rainy season, but only if the InterVa included season of death, making the argument self‐confirmatory.

Conclusion

The mortality declined throughout the study, yet rainy season continued to be associated with 51% higher overall mortality.

A Weather-Based Prediction Model of Malaria Prevalence in Amenfi West District, Ghana

This study investigated the effects of climatic variables, particularly, rainfall and temperature, on malaria incidence using time series analysis. Our preliminary analysis revealed that malaria incidence in the study area decreased at about 0.35% annually. Also, the month of November recorded approximately 21% more malaria cases than the other months while September had a decreased effect of about 14%. The forecast model developed for this investigation indicated that mean minimum (P = 0.01928) and maximum (P = 0.00321) monthly temperatures lagged at three months were significant predictors of malaria incidence while rainfall was not. Diagnostic tests using Ljung-Box and ARCH-LM tests revealed that the model developed was adequate for forecasting. Forecast values for 2016 to 2020 generated by our model suggest a possible future decline in malaria incidence. This goes to suggest that intervention strategies put in place by some nongovernmental and governmental agencies to combat the disease are effective and thus should be encouraged and routinely monitored to yield more desirable outcomes.

Childhood pneumonia and crowding, bed-sharing and nutrition: a case-control study from The Gambia

SETTING

Greater Banjul and Upper River Regions, The Gambia.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate tractable social, environmental and nutritional risk factors for childhood pneumonia.

DESIGN

A case-control study examining the association of crowding, household air pollution (HAP) and nutritional factors with pneumonia was undertaken in children aged 2-59 months: 458 children with severe pneumonia, defined according to the modified WHO criteria, were compared with 322 children with non-severe pneumonia, and these groups were compared to 801 neighbourhood controls. Controls were matched by age, sex, area and season.

RESULTS

Strong evidence was found of an association between bed-sharing with someone with a cough and severe pneumonia (adjusted OR [aOR] 5.1, 95%CI 3.2-8.2, P < 0.001) and non-severe pneumonia (aOR 7.3, 95%CI 4.1-13.1, P < 0.001), with 18% of severe cases estimated to be attributable to this risk factor. Malnutrition and pneumonia had clear evidence of association, which was strongest between severe malnutrition and severe pneumonia (aOR 8.7, 95%CI 4.2-17.8, P < 0.001). No association was found between pneumonia and individual carbon monoxide exposure as a measure of HAP.

CONCLUSION

Bed-sharing with someone with a cough is an important risk factor for severe pneumonia, and potentially tractable to intervention, while malnutrition remains an important tractable determinant.

Decreasing child mortality, spatial clustering and decreasing disparity in North-Western Burkina Faso

Within relatively small areas, there exist high spatial variations of mortality between villages. In rural Burkina Faso, with data from 1993 to 1998, clusters of particularly high child mortality were identified in the population of the Nouna Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS), a member of the INDEPTH Network. In this paper, we report child mortality with respect to temporal trends, spatial clustering and disparity in this HDSS from 1993 to 2012. Poisson regression was used to describe village-specific child mortality rates and time trends in mortality. The spatial scan statistic was used to identify villages or village clusters with higher child mortality. Clustering of mortality in the area is still present, but not as strong as before. The disparity of child mortality between villages has decreased. The decrease occurred in the context of an overall halving of child mortality in the rural area of Nouna HDSS between 1993 and 2012. Extrapolated to the Millennium Development Goals target period 1990-2015, this yields an estimated reduction of 54%, which is not too far off the aim of a two-thirds reduction.

Seasonal and temporal trends in all-cause and malaria mortality in rural Burkina Faso, 1998-2007

BACKGROUND

High mortality levels in sub-Saharan Africa are still a major public health problem. Children are the most affected group with malaria as one of the major causes of death in this region. To plan health interventions, reliable empirical information on cause-specific mortality patterns is essential, yet such data are often not available in developing countries. Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems (HDSS) implementing the verbal autopsy (VA) method provide such data on a longitudinal basis. Physician Coded VA is usually used to determine cause of death, but recently a computerized method, Interpreting VA (InterVA) was alternatively introduced. This study investigates the effect of season on all-cause and malaria mortality analysing cause of death data from 1998 to 2007 obtained by the Nouna HDSS in rural Burkina Faso and derived by InterVA.

METHODS

Monthly mortality rates were calculated for different age groups (infants, children, adolescents, adults, elderly). Seasonal and temporal trends were modelled with parametric Poisson regression adjusted for sex, area of residence and year of death.

RESULTS

Overall, 7,378 deaths occurred corresponding to a mortality rate of 11.9/1,000 with highest rates in infants (56.8/1,000) and children (22.0/1,000). Young children were most affected by malaria. Malaria mortality patterns in children showed significantly higher rates during the rainy season and a stagnant long-term trend. The seasonal trend is well described parametrically with a sinusoidal function. InterVA assigned about half as many deaths to malaria than physicians.

CONCLUSIONS

Malaria mortality remains highly seasonal in rural Burkina Faso. The InterVA method appears to determine reasonably well seasonal mortality patterns, which should be considered for the planning of health resources and activities.

Disease-specific mortality burdens in a rural Gambian population using verbal autopsy, 1998-2007

Objective

To estimate and evaluate the cause-of-death structure and disease-specific mortality rates in a rural area of The Gambia as determined using the InterVA-4 model.

Design

Deaths and person-years of observation were determined by age group for the population of the Farafenni Health and Demographic Surveillance area from January 1998 to December 2007. Causes of death were determined by verbal autopsy (VA) using the InterVA-4 model and ICD-10 disease classification. Assigned causes of death were classified into six broad groups: infectious and parasitic diseases; cancers; other non-communicable diseases; neonatal; maternal; and external causes. Poisson regression was used to estimate age and disease-specific mortality rates, and likelihood ratio tests were used to determine statistical significance.

Results

A total of 3,203 deaths were recorded and VA administered for 2,275 (71%). All-age mortality declined from 15 per 1,000 person-years in 1998–2001 to 8 per 1,000 person-years in 2005–2007. Children aged 1–4 years registered the most marked (74%) decline from 27 to 7 per 1,000 person-years. Communicable diseases accounted for half (49.9%) of the deaths in all age groups, dominated by acute respiratory infections (ARI) (13.7%), malaria (12.9%) and pulmonary tuberculosis (10.2%). The leading causes of death among infants were ARI (5.59 per 1,000 person-years [95% CI: 4.38–7.15]) and malaria (4.11 per 1,000 person-years [95% CI: 3.09–5.47]). Mortality rates in children aged 1–4 years were 3.06 per 1,000 person-years (95% CI: 2.58–3.63) for malaria, and 1.05 per 1,000 person-years (95% CI: 0.79–1.41) for ARI. The HIV-related mortality rate in this age group was 1.17 per 1,000 person-years (95% CI: 0.89–1.54). Pulmonary tuberculosis and communicable diseases other than malaria, HIV/AIDS and ARI were the main killers of adults aged 15 years and over. Stroke-related mortality increased to become the leading cause of death among the elderly aged 60 years or more in 2005–2007.

Conclusions

Mortality in the Farafenni HDSS area was dominated by communicable diseases. Malaria and ARI were the leading causes of death in the general population. In addition to these, diarrhoeal disease was a particularly important cause of death among children under 5 years of age, as was pulmonary tuberculosis among adults aged 15 years and above.

Discovery and validation of biomarkers to guide clinical management of pneumonia in African children

Lipocalin 2 distinguishes severe and bacterial pneumonia from nonsevere and nonbacterial pneumonia with a high level of precision. The clinical impact of this biomarker requires large-scale clinical evaluation.

Background. Pneumonia is the leading cause of death in children globally. Clinical algorithms remain suboptimal for distinguishing severe pneumonia from other causes of respiratory distress such as malaria or distinguishing bacterial pneumonia and pneumonia from others causes, such as viruses. Molecular tools could improve diagnosis and management.

Methods. We conducted a mass spectrometry–based proteomic study to identify and validate markers of severity in 390 Gambian children with pneumonia (n = 204) and age-, sex-, and neighborhood-matched controls (n = 186). Independent validation was conducted in 293 Kenyan children with respiratory distress (238 with pneumonia, 41 with Plasmodium falciparum malaria, and 14 with both). Predictive value was estimated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).

Results. Lipocalin 2 (Lpc-2) was the best protein biomarker of severe pneumonia (AUC, 0.71 [95% confidence interval, .64–.79]) and highly predictive of bacteremia (78% [64%–92%]), pneumococcal bacteremia (84% [71%–98%]), and “probable bacterial etiology” (91% [84%–98%]). These results were validated in Kenyan children with severe malaria and respiratory distress who also met the World Health Organization definition of pneumonia. The combination of Lpc-2 and haptoglobin distinguished bacterial versus malaria origin of respiratory distress with high sensitivity and specificity in Gambian children (AUC, 99% [95% confidence interval, 99%–100%]) and Kenyan children (82% [74%–91%]).

Conclusions. Lpc-2 and haptoglobin can help discriminate the etiology of clinically defined pneumonia and could be used to improve clinical management. These biomarkers should be further evaluated in prospective clinical studies.

An analysis of heat effects in different subpopulations of Bangladesh

A substantial number of epidemiological studies have demonstrated an association between atmospheric conditions and human all-cause as well as cause-specific mortality. However, most research has been performed in industrialised countries, whereas little is known about the atmosphere-mortality relationship in developing countries. Especially with regard to modifications from non-atmospheric conditions and intra-population differences, there is a substantial research deficit. Within the scope of this study, we aimed to investigate the effects of heat in a multi-stratified manner, distinguishing by the cause of death, age, gender, location and socio-economic status. We examined 22,840 death counts using semi-parametric Poisson regression models, adjusting for a multitude of potential confounders. Although Bangladesh is dominated by an increase of mortality with decreasing (equivalent) temperatures over a wide range of values, the findings demonstrated the existence of partly strong heat effects at the upper end of the temperature distribution. Moreover, the study demonstrated that the strength of these heat effects varied considerably over the investigated subgroups. The adverse effects of heat were particularly pronounced for males and the elderly above 65 years. Moreover, we found increased adverse effects of heat for urban areas and for areas with a high socio-economic status. The increase in, and acceleration of, urbanisation in Bangladesh, as well as the rapid aging of the population and the increase in non-communicable diseases, suggest that the relevance of heat-related mortality might increase further. Considering rising global temperatures, the adverse effects of heat might be further aggravated.

Seasonal variation in child and old-age mortality in rural Ghana

BACKGROUND

Mortality in tropical countries varies considerably from season to season. As many of these countries have seen mortality moving from child to old-age mortality, we have studied seasonal variation in child and old-age mortality in a rural area in Ghana that currently undergoes an epidemiologic transition.

METHODS

In an annual survey from 2002 through to 2011, we followed 29 642 individuals and obtained the cause and month of death from 1406 deceased individuals by making use of verbal autopsies.

RESULTS

When comparing the seasons, we observed a trend for higher mortality during the wet season. When comparing separate months, we observed 34% more deaths than expected in September (95% CI 1.04-1.69; p = 0.024) at the end of the wet season and 43% more deaths in April (95% CI 1.13-1.80; p = 0.004) at the end of the dry season, while there were 42% less deaths than expected in December (95% CI 0.52-0.70; p = 0.003), shortly after the wet season. Cause-specific analysis indicated that the peak at the end of the wet season was due to excess mortality from infectious diseases in children and older people alike, whereas the peak in old-age mortality at the end of the dry season was due to non-infectious causes in older people only.

CONCLUSIONS

Taken together, our data suggest that during the epidemiologic transition, mortality not only shifts from child to old-age and from infectious to non-infectious, but also from the wet to the dry season.

Selection of antimalarial drug resistance after intermittent preventive treatment of infants and children (IPTi/c) in Senegal

Senegal has since 2003 used sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) for Intermittent Preventive Treatment (IPT) of malaria in risk groups. However, the large-scale IPT strategy may result in increasing drug resistance. Our study investigated the possible impact of SP-IPT given to infants and children on the prevalence of SP-resistant haplotypes in the Plasmodium falciparum genes Pfdhfr and Pfdhps, comparing sites with and without IPTi/c. P. falciparum positives samples (n=352) were collected from children under 5years of age during two cross-sectional surveys in 2010 and 2011 in three health districts (two on IPTi/c and one without IPTi/c intervention) located in the southern part of Senegal. The prevalence of SP-resistance-related haplotypes in Pfdhfr and Pfdhps was determined by nested PCR followed by sequence-specific oligonucleotide probe (SSOP)-ELISA. The prevalence of the Pfdhfr double mutant haplotypes (CNRN and CICN) was stable between years at<10% in the control group (P=0.69), while it rose significantly in the IPTi/c group from 2% in 2010 to 20% in 2011 (P=0.008). The prevalence of the Pfdhfr triple mutant haplotype (CIRN) increased in both groups, but only significantly in the IPTi/c group from 41% to 65% in 2011 (P=0.005). Conversely, the Pfdhps 437G mutation decreased in both groups from 44.6% to 28.6% (P=0.07) and from 66.7% to 47.5% (P=0.02) between 2010 and 2011 in the control and the IPTi/c groups, respectively. Combined with Pfdhfr, there was a weak trend for decreasing prevalence of quadruple mutants (triple Pfdhfr+Pfdhps 437G) in both groups (P=0.15 and P=0.34). During the two cross-sectional surveys, some significant changes were observed in the SP-resistance-related genes. However, since these changes were observed in the two groups, the IPTi/c strategy does only seem to have limited impact on resistance development and other factors as well. However, continuous monitoring will be needed, due to the up-scaling of the IPTi/c strategy in Senegal according to WHO recommendations.

Health Care Utilization and Attitudes Survey: understanding diarrheal disease in rural Gambia

Diarrheal disease causes ∼1.34 million deaths per year among children under 5 years of age globally. We conducted a Health Care Utilization and Attitudes Survey of 1,012 primary caregivers of children aged 0–11, 12–23, and 24–59 months randomly selected from a Demographic Surveillance population in rural Gambia. Point prevalence of diarrhea was 7.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 6.1–9.8); 23.3% had diarrhea within the previous 2 weeks. Caregivers of 81.5% of children with diarrhea sought healthcare outside their home, but only 48.4% of them visited a health center. Only 17.0% (95% CI = 12.1–23.2) of children with diarrhea received oral rehydration solution (ORS) at home. Abbreviated surveys conducted on six occasions over the subsequent 2 years showed no change in prevalence or treatment-seeking behavior. Diarrhea remains a significant problem in rural young Gambian children. Encouraging care-seeking behavior at health centers and promoting ORS use can reduce mortality and morbidity in this population.

Selection of antimalarial drug resistance after intermittent preventive treatment of infants and children (IPTi/c) in Senegal

Our study investigated the possible impact of SP-IPT given to infants and children on the prevalence of SP-resistant haplotypes in the Plasmodium falciparum genes Pfdhfr and Pfdhps, comparing sites with and without IPTi/c. P. falciparum positive samples (N = 352) collected from children < 5 years were analyzed to determine the prevalence of SP resistance-related haplotypes by nested PCR followed by sequence-specific oligonucleotide probe-enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. The prevalence of the Pfdhfr triple mutant haplotype (CIRN) increased in both groups, but only significantly in the IPTi/c group from 41% to 65% in 2011 (P = 0.005). Conversely, the Pfdhps 437G mutation decreased in both groups from 44.6% to 28.6% (P = 0.07) and from 66.7% to 47.5% (P = 0.02) between 2010 and 2011 in the control and the IPTi/c groups, respectively. A weak trend for decreasing prevalence of quadruple mutants (triple Pfdhfr + Pfdhps 437G) was noted in both groups (P = 0.15 and P = 0.34). During the two cross-sectional surveys some significant changes were observed in the SP resistance-related genes.

Chrysomya putoria, a putative vector of diarrheal diseases

Background

Chrysomya spp are common blowflies in Africa, Asia and parts of South America and some species can reproduce in prodigious numbers in pit latrines. Because of their strong association with human feces and their synanthropic nature, we examined whether these flies are likely to be vectors of diarrheal pathogens.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Flies were sampled using exit traps placed over the drop holes of latrines in Gambian villages. Odor-baited fly traps were used to determine the relative attractiveness of different breeding and feeding media. The presence of bacteria on flies was confirmed by culture and bacterial DNA identified using PCR. A median of 7.00 flies/latrine/day (IQR = 0.0–25.25) was collected, of which 95% were Chrysomya spp, and of these nearly all were Chrysomya putoria (99%). More flies were collected from traps with feces from young children (median = 3.0, IQR = 1.75–10.75) and dogs (median = 1.50, IQR = 0.0–13.25) than from herbivores (median = 0.0, IQR = 0.0–0.0; goat, horse, cow and calf; p<0.001). Flies were strongly attracted to raw meat (median = 44.5, IQR = 26.25–143.00) compared with fish (median = 0.0, IQR = 0.0–19.75, ns), cooked and uncooked rice, and mangoes (median = 0.0, IQR = 0.0–0.0; p<0.001). Escherichia coli were cultured from the surface of 21% (15/72 agar plates) of Chrysomya spp and 10% of these were enterotoxigenic. Enteroaggregative E. coli were identified by PCR in 2% of homogenized Chrysomya spp, Shigella spp in 1.4% and Salmonella spp in 0.6% of samples.

Conclusions/Significance

The large numbers of C. putoria that can emerge from pit latrines, the presence of enteric pathogens on flies, and their strong attraction to raw meat and fish suggests these flies may be common vectors of diarrheal diseases in Africa.

While it is well recognized that the house fly can transmit enteric pathogens, here we show the common African latrine fly, Chrysomya putoria, is likely to be an important vector of these pathogens, since an average latrine can produce 100,000 latrine flies each year. Our behavioral studies of flies in The Gambia show that latrine flies are attracted strongly to human feces, raw beef and fish, providing a clear mechanism for faecal pathogens to be transferred from faeces to food. We used PCR techniques to demonstrate that these flies are carrying Shigella, Salmonella and E. coli, all important causes of diarrhea. Moreover our culture work shows that these pathogens are viable. Latrine flies are likely to be important vectors of diarrheal disease, although further research is required to determine what proportion of infections are due to this fly.

Intermittent preventive treatment of malaria in children: a qualitative study of community perceptions and recommendations in Burkina Faso and Mali

Background

Intermittent preventive treatment of malaria in children (IPTc) is a highly efficacious method of malaria control where malaria transmission is highly seasonal. However, no studies published to date have examined community perceptions of IPTc.

Methods

A qualitative study was undertaken in parallel with a double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized trial of IPTc conducted in Mali and Burkina Faso in 2008–2009 to assess community perceptions of and recommendations for IPTc. Caregivers and community health workers (CHWs) were purposively sampled. Seventy-two in-depth individual interviews and 23 focus group discussions were conducted.

Findings

Widespread perceptions of health benefits for children led to enthusiasm for the trial and for IPTc specifically. Trust in and respect for those providing the tablets and a sense of obligation to the community to participate in sanctioned activities favoured initial adoption. IPTc fits in well with existing understandings of childhood illness. Participants did not express concerns about the specific drugs used for IPTc or about providing tablets to children without symptoms of malaria. There was no evidence that IPTc was perceived as a substitute for bed net usage, nor did it inhibit care seeking. Participants recommended that distribution be “closer to the population”, but expressed concern over caregivers' ability to administer tablets at home.

Conclusions

The trial context mediated perceptions of IPTc. Nonetheless, the results indicate that community perceptions of IPTc in the settings studied were largely favourable and that the delivery strategy rather than the tablets themselves presented the main areas of concern for caregivers and CHWs. The study identifies a number of key questions to consider in planning an IPTc distribution strategy. Single-dose formulations could increase the success of IPTc implementation, as could integration of IPTc within a package of activities, such as bed net distribution and free curative care, for which demand is already high.

Estimation with Cox models: cause-specific survival analysis with misclassified cause of failure

While epidemiologic and clinical research often aims to analyze predictors of specific endpoints, time-to-the-specific-event analysis can be hampered by problems with cause ascertainment. Under typical assumptions of competing risks analysis (and missing-data settings), we correct the cause-specific proportional hazards analysis when information on the reliability of diagnosis is available. Our method avoids bias in effect estimates at low cost in variance, thus offering a perspective for better-informed decision making. The ratio of different cause-specific hazards can be estimated flexibly for this purpose. It thus complements an all-cause analysis. In a sensitivity analysis, this approach can reveal the likely extent and direction of the bias of a standard cause-specific analysis when the diagnosis is suspect. These 2 uses are illustrated in a randomized vaccine trial and an epidemiologic cohort study, respectively.

Seasonal variations of all-cause and cause-specific mortality by age, gender, and socioeconomic condition in urban and rural areas of Bangladesh

BACKGROUND

Mortality exhibits seasonal variations, which to a certain extent can be considered as mid-to long-term influences of meteorological conditions. In addition to atmospheric effects, the seasonal pattern of mortality is shaped by non-atmospheric determinants such as environmental conditions or socioeconomic status. Understanding the influence of season and other factors is essential when seeking to implement effective public health measures. The pressures of climate change make an understanding of the interdependencies between season, climate and health especially important.

METHODS

This study investigated daily death counts collected within the Sample Vital Registration System (VSRS) established by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS). The sample was stratified by location (urban vs. rural), gender and socioeconomic status. Furthermore, seasonality was analyzed for all-cause mortality, and several cause-specific mortalities. Daily deviation from average mortality was calculated and seasonal fluctuations were elaborated using non parametric spline smoothing. A seasonality index for each year of life was calculated in order to assess the age-dependency of seasonal effects.

RESULTS

We found distinctive seasonal variations of mortality with generally higher levels during the cold season. To some extent, a rudimentary secondary summer maximum could be observed. The degree and shape of seasonality changed with the cause of death as well as with location, gender, and SES and was strongly age-dependent. Urban areas were seen to be facing an increased summer mortality peak, particularly in terms of cardiovascular mortality. Generally, children and the elderly faced stronger seasonal effects than youths and young adults.

CONCLUSION

This study clearly demonstrated the complex and dynamic nature of seasonal impacts on mortality. The modifying effect of spatial and population characteristics were highlighted. While tropical regions have been, and still are, associated with a marked excess of mortality in summer, only a weakly pronounced secondary summer peak could be observed for Bangladesh, possibly due to the reduced incidence of diarrhoea-related fatalities. These findings suggest that Bangladesh is undergoing an epidemiological transition from summer to winter excess mortality, as a consequence of changes in socioeconomic conditions and health care provision.

Reaching millennium development goal 4 - the Gambia

To describe how, through a DSS in a rural area of The Gambia, it has been possible to measure substantial reductions in child mortality rates and how we investigated whether the decline paralleled the registered fall in malaria incidence in the country.

METHODS

Demographic surveillance data spanning 19.5 years (1 April 1989-30 September 2008) from 42 villages around the town of Farafenni, The Gambia, were used to estimate childhood mortality rates for neonatal, infant, child (1-4 years) and under-5 age groups. Data were presented in five a priori defined time periods, and annual rates per 1000 live births were derived from Kaplan-Meier survival probabilities.

RESULTS

From 1989-1992 to 2004-2008, under-5 mortality declined by 56% (95% CI: 48-63%), from 165 (95% CI: 151-181) per 1000 live births to 74 (95% CI: 65-84) per 1000 live births. In 1- to 4-year-olds, mortality during the period 2004-2008 was 69% (95% CI: 60-76%) less than in 1989-1992. The corresponding mortality decline in infants was 39% (95% CI: 23-52%); in neonates, it was 38% (95% CI: 13-66%). The derived annual under-5 mortality rates declined from 159 per 1000 live births in 1990 to 45 per 1000 live births in 2008, thus implying an attainment of MDG4 seven years in advance of the target year of 2015.

CONCLUSION

Achieving MDG4 is possible in poor, rural areas of Africa through widespread deployment of relatively simple measures that improve child survival, such as immunisation and effective malaria control.

Comparison of Lives Saved Tool model child mortality estimates against measured data from vector control studies in sub-Saharan Africa

BACKGROUND

Insecticide-treated mosquito nets (ITNs) and indoor-residual spraying have been scaled-up across sub-Saharan Africa as part of international efforts to control malaria. These interventions have the potential to significantly impact child survival. The Lives Saved Tool (LiST) was developed to provide national and regional estimates of cause-specific mortality based on the extent of intervention coverage scale-up. We compared the percent reduction in all-cause child mortality estimated by LiST against measured reductions in all-cause child mortality from studies assessing the impact of vector control interventions in Africa.

METHODS

We performed a literature search for appropriate studies and compared reductions in all-cause child mortality estimated by LiST to 4 studies that estimated changes in all-cause child mortality following the scale-up of vector control interventions. The following key parameters measured by each study were applied to available country projections: baseline all-cause child mortality rate, proportion of mortality due to malaria, and population coverage of vector control interventions at baseline and follow-up years.

RESULTS

The percent reduction in all-cause child mortality estimated by the LiST model fell within the confidence intervals around the measured mortality reductions for all 4 studies. Two of the LiST estimates overestimated the mortality reductions by 6.1 and 4.2 percentage points (33% and 35% relative to the measured estimates), while two underestimated the mortality reductions by 4.7 and 6.2 percentage points (22% and 25% relative to the measured estimates).

CONCLUSIONS

The LiST model did not systematically under- or overestimate the impact of ITNs on all-cause child mortality. These results show the LiST model to perform reasonably well at estimating the effect of vector control scale-up on child mortality when compared against measured data from studies across a range of malaria transmission settings. The LiST model appears to be a useful tool in estimating the potential mortality reduction achieved from scaling-up malaria control interventions.

A systematic review and meta-analysis of the efficacy and safety of intermittent preventive treatment of malaria in children (IPTc)

BACKGROUND

Intermittent preventive treatment of malaria in children less than five years of age (IPTc) has been investigated as a measure to control the burden of malaria in the Sahel and sub-Sahelian areas of Africa where malaria transmission is markedly seasonal.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

IPTc studies were identified using a systematic literature search. Meta-analysis was used to assess the protective efficacy of IPTc against clinical episodes of falciparum malaria. The impact of IPTc on all-cause mortality, hospital admissions, severe malaria and the prevalence of parasitaemia and anaemia was investigated. Three aspects of safety were also assessed: adverse reactions to study drugs, development of drug resistance and loss of immunity to malaria. Twelve IPTc studies were identified: seven controlled and five non-controlled trials. Controlled studies demonstrated protective efficacies against clinical malaria of between 31% and 93% and meta-analysis gave an overall protective efficacy of monthly administered IPTc of 82% (95%CI 75%-87%) during the malaria transmission season. Pooling results from twelve studies demonstrated a protective effect of IPTc against all-cause mortality of 57% (95%CI 24%-76%) during the malaria transmission season. No serious adverse events attributable to the drugs used for IPTc were observed in any of the studies. Data from three studies that followed children during the malaria transmission season in the year following IPTc administration showed evidence of a slight increase in the incidence of clinical malaria compared to children who had not received IPTc.

CONCLUSIONS

IPTc is a safe method of malaria control that has the potential to avert a significant proportion of clinical malaria episodes in areas with markedly seasonal malaria transmission and also appears to have a substantial protective effect against all-cause mortality. These findings indicate that IPTc is a potentially valuable tool that can contribute to the control of malaria in areas with markedly seasonal transmission.

Two strategies for the delivery of IPTc in an area of seasonal malaria transmission in the Gambia: a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

The Expanded Programme on Immunisation (EPI) provides an effective way of delivering intermittent preventive treatment for malaria (IPT) to infants. However, it is uncertain how IPT can be delivered most effectively to older children. Therefore, we have compared two approaches to the delivery of IPT to Gambian children: distribution by village health workers (VHWs) or through reproductive and child health (RCH) trekking teams. In rural areas, RCH trekking teams provide most of the health care to children under the age of 5 years in the Infant Welfare Clinic, and provide antenatal care for pregnant women.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

During the 2006 malaria transmission season, the catchment populations of 26 RCH trekking clinics in The Gambia, each with 400-500 children 6 years of age and under, were randomly allocated to receive IPT from an RCH trekking team or from a VHW. Treatment with a single dose of sulfadoxine pyrimethamine (SP) plus three doses of amodiaquine (AQ) were given at monthly intervals during the malaria transmission season. Morbidity from malaria was monitored passively throughout the malaria transmission season in all children, and a random sample of study children from each cluster was examined at the end of the malaria transmission season. The primary study endpoint was the incidence of malaria. Secondary endpoints included coverage of IPTc, mean haemoglobin (Hb) concentration, and the prevalence of asexual malaria parasitaemia at the end of malaria transmission period. Financial and economic costs associated with the two delivery strategies were collected and incremental cost and effects were compared. A nested case-control study was used to estimate efficacy of IPT treatment courses. Treatment with SP plus AQ was safe and well tolerated. There were 49 cases of malaria with parasitaemia above 5,000/µl in the areas where IPT was delivered through RCH clinics and 21 cases in the areas where IPT was delivered by VHWs, (incidence rates 2.8 and 1.2 per 1,000 child months, respectively, rate difference 1.6 [95% confidence interval (CI) -0.24 to 3.5]). Delivery through VHWs achieved a substantially higher coverage level of three courses of IPT than delivery by RCH trekking teams (74% versus 48%, a difference of 27% [95% CI 16%-38%]). For both methods of delivery, coverage was unrelated to indices of wealth, with similar coverage being achieved in the poorest and wealthiest groups. The prevalence of anaemia was low in both arms of the trial at the end of the transmission season. Efficacy of IPTc against malaria during the month after each treatment course was 87% (95% CI 54%-96%). Delivery of IPTc by VHWs was less costly in both economic and financial terms than delivery through RCH trekking teams, resulting in incremental savings of US$872 and US$1,244 respectively. The annual economic cost of delivering at least the first dose of each course of IPTc was US$3.47 and US$1.63 per child using trekking team and VHWs respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

In this setting in The Gambia, delivery of IPTc to children 6 years of age and under by VHWs is more effective and less costly than delivery through RCH trekking clinics.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00376155. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Meeting oxygen needs in Africa: an options analysis from the Gambia

OBJECTIVE

To compare oxygen supply options for health facilities in the Gambia and develop a decision-making algorithm for choosing oxygen delivery systems in Africa and the rest of the developing world.

METHODS

Oxygen cylinders and concentrators were compared in terms of functionality and cost. Interviews with key informants using locally developed and adapted WHO instruments, operational assessments, cost-modelling and cost measurements were undertaken to determine whether oxygen cylinders or concentrators were the better choice. An algorithm and a software tool to guide the choice of oxygen delivery system were constructed.

FINDINGS

In the Gambia, oxygen concentrators have significant advantages compared to cylinders where power is reliable; in other settings, cylinders are preferable as long as transporting them is feasible. Cylinder costs are greatly influenced by leakage, which is common, whereas concentrator costs are affected by the cost of power far more than by capital costs. Only two of 12 facilities in the Gambia were found suitable for concentrators; at the remaining 10 facilities, cylinders were the better option.

CONCLUSION

Neither concentrators nor cylinders are well suited to every situation, but a simple options assessment can determine which is better in each setting. Nationally this would result in improved supply and lower costs by comparison with conventional cylinders alone, although ensuring a reliable supply would remain a challenge. The decision algorithm and software tool designed for the Gambia could be applied in other developing countries.

A trial of intermittent preventive treatment and home-based management of malaria in a rural area of The Gambia

Background

Individual malaria interventions provide only partial protection in most epidemiological situations. Thus, there is a need to investigate whether combining interventions provides added benefit in reducing mortality and morbidity from malaria. The potential benefits of combining IPT in children (IPTc) with home management of malaria (HMM) was investigated.

Methods

During the 2008 malaria transmission season, 1,277 children under five years of age resident in villages within the rural Farafenni demographic surveillance system (DSS) in North Bank Region, The Gambia were randomized to receive monthly IPTc with a single dose of sulphadoxine/pyrimethamine (SP) plus three doses of amodiaquine (AQ) or SP and AQ placebos given by village health workers (VHWs) on three occasions during the months of September, October and November, in a double-blind trial. Children in all study villages who developed an acute febrile illness suggestive of malaria were treated by VHWs who had been taught how to manage malaria with artemether-lumefantrine (Coartem™). The primary aims of the project were to determine whether IPTc added significant benefit to HMM and whether VHWs could effectively combine the delivery of both interventions.

Results

The incidence of clinical attacks of malaria was very low in both study groups. The incidence rate of malaria in children who received IPTc was 0.44 clinical attacks per 1,000 child months at risk while that for control children was 1.32 per 1,000 child months at risk, a protective efficacy of 66% (95% CI -23% to 96%; p = 0.35). The mean (standard deviation) haemoglobin concentration at the end of the malaria transmission season was similar in the two treatment groups: 10.2 (1.6) g/dL in the IPTc group compared to 10.3 (1.5) g/dL in the placebo group. Coverage with IPTc was high, with 94% of children receiving all three treatments during the study period.

Conclusion

Due to the very low incidence of malaria, no firm conclusion can be drawn on the added benefit of IPTc in preventing clinical episodes of malaria among children who had access to HMM in The Gambia. However, the study showed that VHWs can successfully combine provision of HMM with provision of IPTc.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00944840

Metabolomic analysis in severe childhood pneumonia in the Gambia, West Africa: findings from a pilot study

BACKGROUND

Pneumonia remains the leading cause of death in young children globally and improved diagnostics are needed to better identify cases and reduce case fatality. Metabolomics, a rapidly evolving field aimed at characterizing metabolites in biofluids, has the potential to improve diagnostics in a range of diseases. The objective of this pilot study is to apply metabolomic analysis to childhood pneumonia to explore its potential to improve pneumonia diagnosis in a high-burden setting.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Eleven children with World Health Organization (WHO)-defined severe pneumonia of non-homogeneous aetiology were selected in The Gambia, West Africa, along with community controls. Metabolomic analysis of matched plasma and urine samples was undertaken using Ultra Performance Liquid Chromatography (UPLC) coupled to Time-of-Flight Mass Spectrometry (TOFMS). Biomarker extraction was done using SIMCA-P+ and Random Forests (RF). 'Unsupervised' (blinded) data were analyzed by Principal Component Analysis (PCA), while 'supervised' (unblinded) analysis was by Partial Least Squares-Discriminant Analysis (PLS-DA) and Orthogonal Projection to Latent Structures (OPLS). Potential markers were extracted from S-plots constructed following analysis with OPLS, and markers were chosen based on their contribution to the variation and correlation within the data set. The dataset was additionally analyzed with the machine-learning algorithm RF in order to address issues of model overfitting and markers were selected based on their variable importance ranking. Unsupervised PCA analysis revealed good separation of pneumonia and control groups, with even clearer separation of the groups with PLS-DA and OPLS analysis. Statistically significant differences (p<0.05) between groups were seen with the following metabolites: uric acid, hypoxanthine and glutamic acid were higher in plasma from cases, while L-tryptophan and adenosine-5'-diphosphate (ADP) were lower; uric acid and L-histidine were lower in urine from cases. The key limitation of this study is its small size.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Metabolomic analysis clearly distinguished severe pneumonia patients from community controls. The metabolites identified are important for the host response to infection through antioxidant, inflammatory and antimicrobial pathways, and energy metabolism. Larger studies are needed to determine whether these findings are pneumonia-specific and to distinguish organism-specific responses. Metabolomics has considerable potential to improve diagnostics for childhood pneumonia.

Design and testing for clinical trials faced with misclassified causes of death

With clinical trials under pressure to produce more convincing results faster, we reexamine relative efficiencies for the semiparametric comparison of cause-specific rather than all-cause mortality events, observing that in many settings misclassification of cause of failure is not negligible. By incorporating known misclassification rates, we derive an adapted logrank test that optimizes power when the alternative treatment effect is confined to the cause-specific hazard. We derive sample size calculations for this test as well as for the corresponding all-cause mortality and naive cause-specific logrank test which ignores the misclassification. This may lead to new options at the design stage which we discuss. We reexamine a recently closed vaccine trial in this light and find the sample size needed for the new test to be 32% smaller than for the equivalent all-cause analysis, leading to a reduction of 41 224 participants.

Is mortality among under-five children in Nairobi slums seasonal?

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the seasonal pattern of overall mortality among children aged below 5 years living in two informal settlements in Nairobi City.

METHODS

We used data collected from January 2003 to December 2005 in the Nairobi Urban Health and Demographic Surveillance System on demographic events (birth, death, and migration). Analyses of seasonal effects on under-five mortality are based on Poisson regression controlling for sex, age, study site and calendar year.

RESULTS

During the study period, there were 17 878 children below 5 years in the study sites. Overall 436 under-five deaths were recorded. The overall death rate for the under-five children was 19.95 per 1,000 person years. There is a significant seasonal variation of under-five mortality. The mortality risk was significantly higher in the second and third quarters of year than in the fourth quarter (RR = 1.6, CI: 1.3-2.2 and RR = 1.5, CI: 1.1-2.0).

CONCLUSION

This paper demonstrates that overall mortality among under-five children in the urban poor is seasonal. Overall during the second quarter of the year, the death rate increases by nearly twofold. This evidence generated here may help to support well targeted interventions in reducing under-five mortality in the slums.

Low birth weight and fetal anaemia as risk factors for infant morbidity in rural Malawi

Low birth weight (LBW) and fetal anaemia (FA) are common in malaria endemic areas. To investigate the incidence of infectious morbidity in infants in rural Malawi in relation to birth weight and fetal anaemia, a cohort of babies was followed for a year on the basis of LBW (<2500) and FA (cord haemoglobin < 12.5 g/dl). A matched group of normal birth weight (NBW), non-anaemic (NFA) new-borns were enrolled as controls. Morbidity episodes were recorded at 4-weekly intervals and at each extra visit made to a health centre with any illness. Infants in the NBW NFA group experienced an average of 1.15 (95% C.I. 0.99, 1.31), 1.04 (0.89, 1.19), 0.92 (0.73, 1.11) episodes per year of malaria, respiratory infection and diarrhoea respectively. Corresponding values for the LBW FA group were 0.83 (0.5, 1.16), 0.82 (0.5, 1.16) and 0.76 (0.33, 1.19). FA was not associated with a higher incidence of morbidity, but was significantly associated with a shorter time to first illness episode (p = 0.014). LBW was not a significant risk factor for higher morbidity incidence. LBW and FA were not significant risk factors for incidence of illness episodes in infants.

How access to health care relates to under-five mortality in sub-Saharan Africa: systematic review

An estimated 9.7 million children under the age of five die every year worldwide, approximately 41% of them in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Access to adequate health care is among the factors suggested to be associated with child mortality; improved access holds great potential for a significant reduction in under-five death in developing countries. Theory and corresponding frameworks indicate a wide range of factors affecting access to health care, such as traditionally measured variables (distance to a health provider and cost of obtaining health care) and additional variables (social support, time availability and caregiver autonomy). Few analytical studies of traditional variables have been conducted in SSA, and they have significant limitations and inconclusive results. The importance of additional factors has been suggested by qualitative and recent quantitative studies. We propose that access to health care is multidimensional; factors other than distance and cost need to be considered by those planning health care provision if child mortality rates are to be reduced through improved access. Analytical studies that comprehensively evaluate both traditional and additional variables in developing countries are required.

Age-patterns of malaria vary with severity, transmission intensity and seasonality in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review and pooled analysis

Background

There is evidence that the age-pattern of Plasmodium falciparum malaria varies with transmission intensity. A better understanding of how this varies with the severity of outcome and across a range of transmission settings could enable locally appropriate targeting of interventions to those most at risk. We have, therefore, undertaken a pooled analysis of existing data from multiple sites to enable a comprehensive overview of the age-patterns of malaria outcomes under different epidemiological conditions in sub-Saharan Africa.

Methodology/Principal Findings

A systematic review using PubMed and CAB Abstracts (1980–2005), contacts with experts and searching bibliographies identified epidemiological studies with data on the age distribution of children with P. falciparum clinical malaria, hospital admissions with malaria and malaria-diagnosed mortality. Studies were allocated to a 3×2 matrix of intensity and seasonality of malaria transmission. Maximum likelihood methods were used to fit five continuous probability distributions to the percentage of each outcome by age for each of the six transmission scenarios. The best-fitting distributions are presented graphically, together with the estimated median age for each outcome. Clinical malaria incidence was relatively evenly distributed across the first 10 years of life for all transmission scenarios. Hospital admissions with malaria were more concentrated in younger children, with this effect being even more pronounced for malaria-diagnosed deaths. For all outcomes, the burden of malaria shifted towards younger ages with increasing transmission intensity, although marked seasonality moderated this effect.

Conclusions

The most severe consequences of P. falciparum malaria were concentrated in the youngest age groups across all settings. Despite recently observed declines in malaria transmission in several countries, which will shift the burden of malaria cases towards older children, it is still appropriate to target strategies for preventing malaria mortality and severe morbidity at very young children who will continue to bear the brunt of malaria deaths in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Decreasing childhood mortality and increasing proportion of malaria deaths in rural Burkina Faso

BACKGROUND

Malaria is the leading cause of death among children less than five years of age in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), however, precise estimates on the burden of malaria are lacking. The aim of this study was to describe temporal trends for malaria and all-cause mortality by combining a series of clinical and intervention studies conducted in Burkina Faso.

METHODS

Data from a demographic surveillance system was used to follow-up children under five years who participated in five observational and intervention studies between June 1999 and December 2004 in rural north-western Burkina Faso. Mortality data was analyzed with cause-specific mortality ascertained using the verbal autopsy method. Person-years (PY) of observations were computed and age-standardized mortality rates (MR) for all-causes and malaria (adjusted for missing causes of death) were calculated. Rate ratios to investigate mortality variations over years were calculated using multivariate Poisson regression.

RESULTS

The study followed 6,387 children aged less than five years (mean follow-up: 2.8 years; 16,099 PY). During the study period, 443 deaths were registered with malaria accounting for 49% of all deaths. All-cause and malaria-specific MR were 26.7 (95% CI: 24.2-29.2) and 15.8 (95% CI: 14.217.7) per 1,000 PY. All-cause MR declined over years of follow-up (from 31.2 to 16.3 per 1,000 PY in 1999/2000 to 2004, respectively) but malaria MR remained relatively stable (from 15.8 to 12.1 per 1,000 PY in 1999/2000 to 2004, respectively) resulting in an increasing relative effect of malaria on all-cause mortality. Variations in all-cause and malaria-specific mortality were observed with increasing age and across village town clusters.

CONCLUSION

The findings of this study support the continuously decreasing trend of all-cause mortality in most of SSA, but call for more efforts to comprehensively address malaria with existing control tools such as insecticide-treated bed nets and effective first-line combination therapies.

Burden of neonatal infections in developing countries: a review of evidence from community-based studies

INTRODUCTION

Infections are a major contributor to newborn deaths in developing countries. Majority of these deaths occur at home without coming to medical attention. The Millennium Development Goal for child survival cannot be achieved without substantial reductions in infection-specific neonatal mortality. We describe the burden of neonatal infections in developing countries and discuss the need for community-based management approaches to improve survival from neonatal infections in these countries.

METHODS

We reviewed community-based studies published since 1990 from developing countries to estimate the rates of neonatal and young infant infections and infection-specific neonatal mortality.

RESULTS

Thirty-two studies reviewed suggest that infections may be responsible for 8% to 80% of all neonatal deaths and as many as 42% of deaths in the first week of life. Eleven reports provided data on incidence of infections in neonates and infants up to 60 days of life. Rates of neonatal sepsis were as high as 170/1000 live births (clinically diagnosed) and 5.5/1000 live births (blood culture-confirmed).

CONCLUSIONS

Considerable heterogeneity exists among included studies, and more accurate data and standardized methodologies are required. However, data indicate that a significant proportion of neonatal deaths in developing countries are due to infections. Current recommendations of hospitalization and parenteral therapy for managing neonatal infections are inadequately followed in developing countries. Approaches for detecting and managing serious infections within the community, at home or first-level health facilities, may be more effective options in settings where delays and reluctance to seek care, health system inefficiencies, socioeconomic and cultural, as well as logistic constraints exist.

Estimating child mortality due to diarrhoea in developing countries

OBJECTIVE

The major objective of this study is to provide estimates of diarrhoea mortality at country, regional and global level by employing the Child Health Epidemiology Reference Group (CHERG) standard.

METHODS

A systematic and comprehensive literature review was undertaken of all studies published since 1980 reporting under-5 diarrhoea mortality. Information was collected on characteristics of each study and its population. A regression model was used to relate these characteristics to proportional mortality from diarrhoea and to predict its distribution in national populations.

FINDINGS

Global deaths from diarrhoea of children aged less than 5 years were estimated at 1.87 million (95% confidence interval, CI: 1.56-2.19), approximately 19% of total child deaths. WHO African and South-East Asia Regions combined contain 78% (1.46 million) of all diarrhoea deaths occurring among children in the developing world; 73% of these deaths are concentrated in just 15 developing countries.

CONCLUSION

Planning and evaluation of interventions to control diarrhoea deaths and to reduce under-5 mortality is obstructed by the lack of a system that regularly generates cause-of-death information. The methods used here provide country-level estimates that constitute alternative information for planning in settings without adequate data.

Changes in malaria indices between 1999 and 2007 in The Gambia: a retrospective analysis

BACKGROUND

Malaria is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in Africa. International effort and funding for control has been stepped up, with substantial increases from 2003 in the delivery of malaria interventions to pregnant women and children younger than 5 years in The Gambia. We investigated the changes in malaria indices in this country, and the causes and public-health significance of these changes.

METHODS

We undertook a retrospective analysis of original records to establish numbers and proportions of malaria inpatients, deaths, and blood-slide examinations at one hospital over 9 years (January, 1999-December, 2007), and at four health facilities in three different administrative regions over 7 years (January, 2001-December, 2007). We obtained additional data from single sites for haemoglobin concentrations in paediatric admissions and for age distribution of malaria admissions.

FINDINGS

From 2003 to 2007, at four sites with complete slide examination records, the proportions of malaria-positive slides decreased by 82% (3397/10861 in 2003 to 337/6142 in 2007), 85% (137/1259 to 6/368), 73% (3664/16932 to 666/11333), and 50% (1206/3304 to 336/1853). At three sites with complete admission records, the proportions of malaria admissions fell by 74% (435/2530 to 69/1531), 69% (797/2824 to 89/1032), and 27% (2204/4056 to 496/1251). Proportions of deaths attributed to malaria in two hospitals decreased by 100% (seven of 115 in 2003 to none of 117 in 2007) and 90% (22/122 in 2003 to one of 58 in 2007). Since 2004, mean haemoglobin concentrations for all-cause admissions increased by 12 g/L (85 g/L in 2000-04 to 97 g/L in 2005-07), and mean age of paediatric malaria admissions increased from 3.9 years (95% CI 3.7-4.0) to 5.6 years (5.0-6.2).

INTERPRETATION

A large proportion of the malaria burden has been alleviated in The Gambia. Our results encourage consideration of a policy to eliminate malaria as a public-health problem, while emphasising the importance of accurate and continuous surveillance.

Infant morbidity in an Indian slum birth cohort

OBJECTIVE

To establish incidence rates, clinic referrals, hospitalisations, mortality rates and baseline determinants of morbidity among infants in an Indian slum.

DESIGN

A community-based birth cohort with twice-weekly surveillance.

SETTING

Vellore, South India.

SUBJECTS

452 newborns recruited over 18 months, followed through infancy.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Incidence rates of gastrointestinal illness, respiratory illness, undifferentiated fever, other infections and non-infectious morbidity; rates of community-based diagnoses, clinic visits and hospitalisation; and rate ratios of baseline factors for morbidity.

RESULTS

Infants experienced 12 episodes (95% confidence interval (CI) 11 to 13) of illness, spending about one fifth of their infancy with an illness. Respiratory and gastrointestinal symptoms were most common with incidence rates (95% CI) of 7.4 (6.9 to 7.9) and 3.6 (3.3 to 3.9) episodes per child-year. Factors independently associated with a higher incidence of respiratory and gastrointestinal illness were age (3-5 months), male sex, cold/wet season and household involved in beedi work. The rate (95% CI) of hospitalisation, mainly for respiratory and gastrointestinal illness, was 0.28 (0.22 to 0.35) per child-year.

CONCLUSIONS

The morbidity burden due to respiratory and gastrointestinal illness is high in a South Indian urban slum, with children ill for approximately one fifth of infancy, mainly with respiratory and gastrointestinal illnesses. The risk factors identified were younger age, male sex, cold/wet season and household involvement in beedi work.

A trial of the efficacy, safety and impact on drug resistance of four drug regimens for seasonal intermittent preventive treatment for malaria in Senegalese children

In the Sahel, most malaria deaths occur among children 1-4 years old during a short transmission season. A trial of seasonal intermittent preventive treatment (IPT) with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) and a single dose of artesunate (AS) showed an 86% reduction in the incidence of malaria in Senegal but this may not be the optimum regimen. We compared this regimen with three alternatives.

METHODS

2102 children aged 6-59 months received either one dose of SP plus one dose of AS (SP+1AS) (the previous regimen), one dose of SP plus 3 daily doses of AS (SP+3AS), one dose of SP plus three daily doses of amodiaquine (AQ) (SP+3AQ) or 3 daily doses of AQ and AS (3AQ+3AS). Treatments were given once a month on three occasions during the malaria transmission season. The primary end point was incidence of clinical malaria. Secondary end-points were incidence of adverse events, mean haemoglobin concentration and prevalence of parasites carrying markers of resistance to SP.

FINDINGS

The incidence of malaria, and the prevalence of parasitaemia at the end of the transmission season, were lowest in the group that received SP+3AQ: 10% of children in the group that received SP+1AS had malaria, compared to 9% in the SP+3AS group (hazard ratio HR 0.90, 95%CI 0.60, 1.36); 11% in the 3AQ+3AS group, HR 1.1 (0.76-1.7); and 5% in the SP+3AQ group, HR 0.50 (0.30-0.81). Mutations associated with resistance to SP were present in almost all parasites detected at the end of the transmission season, but the prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum was very low in the SP+3AQ group.

CONCLUSIONS

Monthly treatment with SP+3AQ is a highly effective regimen for seasonal IPT. Choice of this regimen would minimise the spread of drug resistance and allow artemisinins to be reserved for the treatment of acute clinical malaria.

Comparison of all-cause and malaria-specific mortality from two West African countries with different malaria transmission patterns

Background

Malaria is a leading cause of death in children below five years of age in sub-Saharan Africa. All-cause and malaria-specific mortality rates for children under-five years old in a mesoendemic malaria area (The Gambia) were compared with those from a hyper/holoendemic area (Burkina Faso).

Methods

Information on observed person-years (PY), deaths and cause of death was extracted from online search, using key words: "Africa, The Gambia, Burkina Faso, malaria, Plasmodium falciparum, mortality, child survival, morbidity". Missing person-years were estimated and all-cause and malaria-specific mortality were calculated as rates per 1,000 PY. Studies were classified as longitudinal/clinical studies or surveys/censuses. Linear regression was used to investigate mortality trends.

Results

Overall, 39 and 18 longitudinal/clinical studies plus 10 and 15 surveys and censuses were identified for The Gambia and Burkina Faso respectively (1960–2004). Model-based estimates for under-five all-cause mortality rates show a decline from 1960 to 2000 in both countries (Burkina Faso: from 71.8 to 39.0), but more markedly in The Gambia (from 104.5 to 28.4). The weighted-average malaria-specific mortality rate per 1000 person-years for Burkina Faso (15.4, 95% CI: 13.0–18.3) was higher than that in The Gambia (9.5, 95% CI: 9.1–10.1). Malaria mortality rates did not decline over time in either country.

Conclusion

Child mortality in both countries declined significantly in the period 1960 to 2004, possibly due to socio-economic development, improved health services and specific intervention projects. However, there was little decline in malaria mortality suggesting that there had been no major impact of malaria control programmes during this period. The difference in malaria mortality rates across countries points to significant differences in national disease control policies and/or disease transmission patterns.

Is the Expanded Programme on Immunisation the most appropriate delivery system for intermittent preventive treatment of malaria in West Africa?

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the coverage and equity of the Expanded Programme on Immunisation (EPI) and its effect on age schedule, seasonality of malaria risk, and linked intermittent preventive treatment (IPT) in West Africa.

METHOD

Secondary analyses of data from a trial of IPT in Ghana. The potential effectiveness and impact of EPI-linked IPT in West Africa was calculated using the coverage of Diptheria Pertussis Tetanus vaccination obtained from national surveys and the reported protective efficacies of IPT.

RESULTS

In West Africa, where the transmission of malaria is highly seasonal, only 10% of malaria episodes in infants would be averted with the current coverage of EPI.

CONCLUSION

In this setting, the EPI-linked IPT is not necessarily the most appropriate approach and alternative IPT schedules and delivery systems are needed.

Cost-effectiveness of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination in the prevention of child mortality: an international economic analysis

BACKGROUND

Routine vaccination of infants against Streptococcus pneumoniae (pneumococcus) needs substantial investment by governments and charitable organisations. Policymakers need information about the projected health benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of vaccination when considering these investments. Our aim was to incorporate these data into an economic analysis of pneumococcal vaccination of infants in countries eligible for financial support from the Global Alliance for Vaccines & Immunization (GAVI).

METHODS

We constructed a decision analysis model to compare pneumococcal vaccination of infants aged 6, 10, and 14 weeks with no vaccination in the 72 countries that were eligible as of 2005. We used published and unpublished data to estimate child mortality, effectiveness of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine, and immunisation rates.

FINDINGS

Pneumococcal vaccination at the rate of diptheria-tetanus-pertussis vaccine coverage was projected to prevent 262,000 deaths per year (7%) in children aged 3-29 months in the 72 developing countries studied, thus averting 8.34 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) yearly. If every child could be reached, up to 407,000 deaths per year would be prevented. At a vaccine cost of International 5 dollars per dose, vaccination would have a net cost of 838 million dollars, a cost of 100 dollars per DALY averted. Vaccination at this price was projected to be highly cost-effective in 68 of 72 countries when each country's per head gross domestic product per DALY averted was used as a benchmark.

INTERPRETATION

At a vaccine cost of between 1 dollar and 5 dollars per dose, purchase and accelerated uptake of pneumococcal vaccine in the world's poorest countries is projected to substantially reduce childhood mortality and to be highly cost-effective.

Has the 2005 measles mortality reduction goal been achieved? A natural history modelling study

BACKGROUND

In 2002, the UN General Assembly Special Session on Children adopted a goal to reduce deaths owing to measles by half by the end of 2005, compared with 1999 estimates. We describe efforts and progress made towards this goal.

METHODS

We assessed trends in immunisation against measles on the basis of national implementation of the WHO/UNICEF comprehensive strategy for measles mortality reduction, and the provision of a second opportunity for measles immunisation. We used a natural history model to evaluate trends in mortality due to measles.

RESULTS

Between 1999 and 2005, according to our model mortality owing to measles was reduced by 60%, from an estimated 873,000 deaths (uncertainty bounds 634,000-1,140,000) in 1999 to 345,000 deaths (247,000-458,000) in 2005. The largest percentage reduction in estimated measles mortality during this period was in the western Pacific region (81%), followed by Africa (75%) and the eastern Mediterranean region (62%). Africa achieved the largest total reduction, contributing 72% of the global reduction in measles mortality. Nearly 7.5 million deaths from measles were prevented through immunisation between 1999 and 2005, with supplemental immunisation activities and improved routine immunisation accounting for 2.3 million of these prevented deaths.

INTERPRETATION

The achievement of the 2005 global measles mortality reduction goal is evidence of what can be accomplished for child survival in countries with high childhood mortality when safe, cost-effective, and affordable interventions are backed by country-level political commitment and an effective international partnership.

An epidemiologic model of severe morbidity and mortality caused by Plasmodium falciparum

The intensity of Plasmodium falciparum transmission has multifarious and sometimes counter-intuitive effects on age-specific rates of severe morbidity and mortality in endemic areas. This has led to conflicting speculations about the likely impact of malaria control interventions. We propose a quantitative framework to reconcile the various apparently contradictory observations relating morbidity and mortality rates to malaria transmission. Our model considers two sub-categories of severe malaria episodes. These comprise episodes with extremely high parasite densities in hosts with little previous exposure, and acute malaria episodes accompanied by co-morbidity or other risk factors enhancing susceptibility. In addition to direct malaria mortality from severe malaria episodes, the model also considers the enhanced risk of indirect mortality following acute episodes accompanied by co-morbidity after the parasites have been cleared. We fit this model to summaries of field data from endemic areas of Africa, and show that it can account for the observed age- and exposure-specific patterns of pediatric severe malaria and malaria-associated mortality in children. This model will allow us to make predictions of the long-term impact of potential malaria interventions. Predictions for children will be more reliable than those for older people because there is a paucity of epidemiologic studies of adults and adolescents.

The effect of malaria transmission intensity on neonatal mortality in endemic areas

Estimates of the impact of Plasmodium falciparum infections during pregnancy on neonatal mortality have not taken into account how this varies with the level of malaria endemicity and thus do not indicate the possible effects of malaria control strategies that reduce transmission. We now review the relevant literature, and propose a mathematical model for the association between P. falciparum transmission and neonatal death. The excess risk of neonatal mortality in malaria-endemic areas appears to be insensitive to the intensity of P. falciparum transmission over a wide range of endemicity. Moderate reductions in the overall level of malaria transmission in endemic areas are therefore unlikely to significantly reduce neonatal mortality. The magnitude of the excess risk is very uncertain because existing estimates are heavily dependent on the questionable assumption that the effects are mediated by birth weight. Accurate prediction of the impact of malaria control measures targeted at pregnant women requires direct estimates of malaria-attributable neonatal mortality rates.

Review: Intermittent preventive treatment--a new approach to the prevention of malaria in children in areas with seasonal malaria transmission

Intermittent preventive treatment, the administration of a full course of an anti-malarial treatment to a population at risk at specified time points regardless of whether or not they are known to be infected, is now a recommended approach to the prevention of malaria in pregnancy and is being explored as a potential way of preventing malaria in infants. However, in many malaria endemic areas, the main burden of malaria is in older children and increasing use of insecticide treated bednets is likely to increase further the proportion of episodes of malaria that occur in older children. Recently, it has been shown in Senegal and in Mali that intermittent preventive treatment given to older children during the malaria transmission season can be remarkably effective in preventing malaria. This approach to malaria control is likely to be most effective in areas with a high level of malaria transmission concentrated in a short period of the year. However, several issues need to be addressed before intermittent preventive treatment in children can be advocated for use in malaria control programmes. These include: (1) determination of whether intermittent preventive treatment adds to the protection afforded by other control measures such as insecticide-treated bednets; (2) whether an effective and sustainable delivery system can be found; (3) choice of drug to be used; (4) optimum timing of drug administration; (5) the requisite interval between treatments. The potential benefits of intermittent preventive treatment in children are substantial; more research is needed to determine if this is a practical approach to malaria control.