Molecular epidemiology and transmission dynamics of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in rural Africa

Determining the risk-factors for molecular clustering of drug-resistant tuberculosis in South Africa

BACKGROUND

Drug-resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB) epidemic is driven mainly by the effect of ongoing transmission. In high-burden settings such as South Africa (SA), considerable demographic and geographic heterogeneity in DR-TB transmission exists. Thus, a better understanding of risk-factors for clustering can help to prioritise resources to specifically targeted high-risk groups as well as areas that contribute disproportionately to transmission.

METHODS

The study analyzed potential risk-factors for recent transmission in SA, using data collected from a sentinel molecular surveillance of DR-TB, by comparing demographic, clinical and epidemiologic characteristics with clustering and cluster sizes. A genotypic cluster was defined as two or more patients having identical patterns by the two genotyping methods used. Clustering was used as a proxy for recent transmission. Descriptive statistics and multinomial logistic regression were used.

RESULT

The study identified 277 clusters, with cluster size ranging between 2 and 259 cases. The majority (81.6%) of the clusters were small (2-5 cases) with few large (11-25 cases) and very large (≥ 26 cases) clusters identified mainly in Western Cape (WC), Eastern Cape (EC) and Mpumalanga (MP). In a multivariable model, patients in clusters including 11-25 and ≥ 26 individuals were more likely to be infected by Beijing family, have XDR-TB, living in Nelson Mandela Metro in EC or Umgungunglovo in Kwa-Zulu Natal (KZN) provinces, and having history of imprisonment. Individuals belonging in a small genotypic cluster were more likely to infected with Rifampicin resistant TB (RR-TB) and more likely to reside in Frances Baard in Northern Cape (NC).

CONCLUSION

Sociodemographic, clinical and bacterial risk-factors influenced rate of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M. tuberculosis) genotypic clustering. Hence, high-risk groups and hotspot areas for clustering in EC, WC, KZN and MP should be prioritized for targeted intervention to prevent ongoing DR-TB transmission.

Detection of M. tuberculosis in the environment as a tool for identifying high-risk locations for tuberculosis transmission

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a leading cause of infectious mortality globally, yet most cases cannot be epidemiologically linked even with extensive contact investigations and whole genome sequencing. Consequently, there remain major gaps in our understanding of where and when M. tuberculosis (Mtb) exposures occur. We aimed to investigate whether Mtb can be detected in environments where TB patients were recently present, which could serve as a tool for characterizing exposure risk. We collected 389 environment surface (ES) swabs from two high TB burden prisons in Brazil, sampling 41 (n = 340) cells occupied by individuals with active TB and 7 (n = 49) cells from individuals without TB. In a subset of pooled swabs (n = 6) and a swab from a cigarette lighter from the cell with active TB patients, we enriched Mtb DNA using RNA-bait hybrid capture assays and performed whole genome sequencing. In prison cells, Mtb DNA was detected in 55/340 (16 %) of ES swabs from cells occupied by active TB patients and none (0/49) from cells in which no active TB patients were present. Mtb was detected in 13/16 (81 %) prison cells occupied by the individuals with high/medium sputum Xpert Mtb load and 8/25 (32 %) with low/very low sputum Mtb load (p = 0.003). Seven hybrid capture samples had a median genomic coverage of 140×. rpoB mutations conferring high-level rifampin resistance were detected in 3/7 ES swabs. Mtb was frequently detectable in environments recently occupied by individuals with active TB. This approach could be applied in congregate environments to identify and characterize high-risk settings for Mtb exposure.

The impact of COVID-19 on TB: a review of the data

Early in the COVID-19 pandemic, models predicted hundreds of thousands of additional TB deaths as a result of health service disruption. To date, empirical evidence on the effects of COVID-19 on TB outcomes has been limited. Here we summarise the evidence available at a country level, identifying broad mechanisms by which COVID-19 may modify TB burden and mitigation efforts. From the data, it is clear that there have been substantial disruptions to TB health services and an increase in vulnerability to TB. Evidence for changes in Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission is limited, and it remains unclear how the resources required and available for the TB response have changed. To advocate for additional funding to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on the global TB burden, and to efficiently allocate resources for the TB response, requires a significant improvement in the TB data available.

Antimicrobial resistance and COVID-19: Intersections and implications

Before the coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic began, antimicrobial resistance (AMR) was among the top priorities for global public health. Already a complex challenge, AMR now needs to be addressed in a changing healthcare landscape. Here, we analyse how changes due to COVID-19 in terms of antimicrobial usage, infection prevention, and health systems affect the emergence, transmission, and burden of AMR. Increased hand hygiene, decreased international travel, and decreased elective hospital procedures may reduce AMR pathogen selection and spread in the short term. However, the opposite effects may be seen if antibiotics are more widely used as standard healthcare pathways break down. Over 6 months into the COVID-19 pandemic, the dynamics of AMR remain uncertain. We call for the AMR community to keep a global perspective while designing finely tuned surveillance and research to continue to improve our preparedness and response to these intersecting public health challenges.

A Framework for Network-Based Epidemiological Modeling of Tuberculosis Dynamics Using Synthetic Datasets

We present a framework for discrete network-based modeling of TB epidemiology in US counties using publicly available synthetic datasets. We explore the dynamics of this modeling framework by simulating the hypothetical spread of disease over 2 years resulting from a single active infection in Washtenaw County, MI. We find that for sufficiently large transmission rates that active transmission outweighs reactivation, disease prevalence is sensitive to the contact weight assigned to transmissions between casual contacts (that is, contacts that do not share a household, workplace, school, or group quarter). Workplace and casual contacts contribute most to active disease transmission, while household, school, and group quarter contacts contribute relatively little. Stochastic features of the model result in significant uncertainty in the predicted number of infections over time, leading to challenges in model calibration and interpretation of model-based predictions. Finally, predicted infections were more localized by household location than would be expected if they were randomly distributed. This modeling framework can be refined in later work to study specific county and multi-county TB epidemics in the USA.

Genotyping of mycobacterium tuberculosis isolated from pulmonary tuberculosis patients among people living with HIV in Addis Ababa: Cross-sectional study

Background

Tuberculosis is a serious infection that is common in people living with HIV and increases the mortality and morbidity from the diseases. The study of genetic diversity among strains of M. tuberculosis has a great impact in studying pathogenicity and transmissibility, design for vaccines production, identification of nominee genes for drug targets, and improving molecular diagnostic techniques. The aim of this study was to characterize Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) isolated from suspected pulmonary tuberculosis among people living with HIV.

Method

A total of 143 sputum samples was collected and transported to Akililu Lemma TB laboratory. The collected samples were processed for culture using Lowenstein-Jensen medium. For 45 culture positive isolates, genotyping of mycobacterial DNA was performed by spoligotyping and isolates were assigned to families using the SpolDB4 and the model-based program 'SPOTCLUST'. Categorical data were analyzed by Chi-square test.

Result

A high level of diversity was found among the 45 isolates. Twenty six different Spoligo patterns were obtained. The T (46.7%), Family33 (44.4%) and Central Asian (CAS): (4.4%) families were the dominant isolates comprising 91.5% of the total strains. Of 44% of the Euro-American, 6/20(30%) and 9/20(45%), identified were lineage belonged to Spoligo-International-Type (SIT₃₃₆) and SIT₁₄₉. Of the total strains, 12 (22%) were unique and have not been described in SpolDB4 to date.

Conclusion

We found the high diversity of Mtb in pulmonary tuberculosis patients in this setting. T_{3_}ETH family identified as the numerous M.tuberculosis strains circulating in the community.

An explanation for the low proportion of tuberculosis that results from transmission between household and known social contacts

We currently have little idea where Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) transmission occurs in high incidence settings. Molecular studies suggest that only around 8-19% of transmission to adults occurs within-household, or between known social-contacts. This contrasts with findings from social-contact studies, which show that substantial proportions of contact time occur in households, workplaces and schools. A mathematical model of social-contact behaviour and Mtb transmission was developed, incorporating variation in susceptibility and infectiousness. Three types of contact were simulated: household, repeated (individuals outside household contacted repeatedly with daily-monthly frequency) and non-repeated. The model was parameterised using data from Cape Town, South Africa, on mean and variance in contact numbers and contact durations, by contact type, and fitted to an estimate of overdispersion in numbers of secondary cases ('superspreading') in Cape Town. Household, repeated, and non-repeated contacts contributed 36%, 13%, and 51% of contact time, and 13%, 8%, and 79% of disease, respectively. Results suggest contact saturation, exacerbated by long disease durations and superspreading, cause the high proportion of transmission between non-repeated contacts. Household and social-contact tracing is therefore unlikely to reach most tuberculosis cases. A better understanding of transmission locations, and methods to identify superspreaders, are urgently required to improve tuberculosis prevention strategies.

Spatial overlap links seemingly unconnected genotype-matched TB cases in rural Uganda

Introduction

Incomplete understanding of TB transmission dynamics in high HIV prevalence settings remains an obstacle for prevention. Understanding where transmission occurs could provide a platform for case finding and interrupting transmission.

Methods

From 2012–2015, we sought to recruit all adults starting TB treatment in a Ugandan community. Participants underwent household (HH) contact investigation, and provided names of social contacts, sites of work, healthcare and socializing, and two sputum samples. Mycobacterium tuberculosis culture-positive specimens underwent 24-loci MIRU-VNTR and spoligotyping. We sought to identify epidemiologic links between genotype-matched cases by analyzing social networks and mapping locations where cases reported spending ≥12 hours over the one-month pre-treatment. Sites of spatial overlap (≤100m) between genotype-matched cases were considered potential transmission sites. We analyzed social networks stratified by genotype clustering status, with cases linked by shared locations, and compared network density by location type between clustered vs. non-clustered cases.

Results

Of 173 adults with TB, 131 (76%) were enrolled, 108 provided sputum, and 84/131 (78%) were MTB culture-positive: 52% (66/131) tested HIV-positive. Of 118 adult HH contacts, 105 (89%) were screened and 3 (2.5%) diagnosed with active TB. Overall, 33 TB cases (39%) belonged to 15 distinct MTB genotype-matched clusters. Within each cluster, no cases shared a HH or reported shared non-HH contacts. In 6/15 (40%) clusters, potential epidemiologic links were identified by spatial overlap at specific locations: 5/6 involved health care settings. Genotype-clustered TB social networks had significantly greater network density based on shared clinics (p<0.001) and decreased density based on shared marketplaces (p<0.001), compared to non-clustered networks.

Conclusions

In this molecular epidemiologic study, links between MTB genotype-matched cases were only identifiable via shared locations, healthcare locations in particular, rather than named contacts. This suggests most transmission is occurring between casual contacts, and emphasizes the need for improved infection control in healthcare settings in rural Africa.

Drivers of Tuberculosis Transmission

Measuring tuberculosis transmission is exceedingly difficult, given the remarkable variability in the timing of clinical disease after Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection; incident disease can result from either a recent (ie, weeks to months) or a remote (ie, several years to decades) infection event. Although we cannot identify with certainty the timing and location of tuberculosis transmission for individuals, approaches for estimating the individual probability of recent transmission and for estimating the fraction of tuberculosis cases due to recent transmission in populations have been developed. Data used to estimate the probable burden of recent transmission include tuberculosis case notifications in young children and trends in tuberculin skin test and interferon γ-release assays. More recently, M. tuberculosis whole-genome sequencing has been used to estimate population levels of recent transmission, identify the distribution of specific strains within communities, and decipher chains of transmission among culture-positive tuberculosis cases. The factors that drive the transmission of tuberculosis in communities depend on the burden of prevalent tuberculosis; the ways in which individuals live, work, and interact (eg, congregate settings); and the capacity of healthcare and public health systems to identify and effectively treat individuals with infectious forms of tuberculosis. Here we provide an overview of these factors, describe tools for measurement of ongoing transmission, and highlight knowledge gaps that must be addressed.

Transmission of Mycobacterium Tuberculosis in Households and the Community: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

The individual- and population-level impact of household tuberculosis exposure on transmission is unclear but may have implications for the effectiveness and implementation of control interventions. We systematically searched for and included studies in which latent tuberculosis infection was assessed in 2 groups: children exposed and unexposed to a household member with tuberculosis. We also extracted data on the smear and culture status of index cases, the age and bacillus Calmette-Guérin vaccination status of contacts, and study design characteristics. Of 6,176 citations identified from our search strategy, 26 studies (13,999 children with household exposure to tuberculosis and 174,097 children without) from 1929-2015 met inclusion criteria. Exposed children were 3.79 (95% confidence interval (CI): 3.01, 4.78) times more likely to be infected than were their community counterparts. Metaregression demonstrated higher infection among children aged 0-4 years of age compared with children aged 10-14 years (ratio of odds ratios = 2.24, 95% CI: 1.43, 3.51) and among smear-positive versus smear-negative index cases (ratio of odds ratios = 5.45, 95% CI: 3.43, 8.64). At the population level, we estimated that a small proportion (<20%) of transmission was attributable to household exposure. Our results suggest that targeting tuberculosis prevention efforts to household contacts is highly effective. However, a large proportion of transmission at the population level may occur outside the household.

Age- and Sex-Specific Social Contact Patterns and Incidence of Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infection

We aimed to model the incidence of infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis among adults using data on infection incidence in children, disease prevalence in adults, and social contact patterns. We conducted a cross-sectional face-to-face survey of adults in 2011, enumerating "close" (shared conversation) and "casual" (shared indoor space) social contacts in 16 Zambian communities and 8 South African communities. We modeled the incidence of M. tuberculosis infection in all age groups using these contact patterns, as well as the observed incidence of M. tuberculosis infection in children and the prevalence of tuberculosis disease in adults. A total of 3,528 adults participated in the study. The reported rates of close and casual contact were 4.9 per adult per day (95% confidence interval: 4.6, 5.2) and 10.4 per adult per day (95% confidence interval: 9.3, 11.6), respectively. Rates of close contact were higher for adults in larger households and rural areas. There was preferential mixing of close contacts within age groups and within sexes. The estimated incidence of M. tuberculosis infection in adults was 1.5-6 times higher (2.5%-10% per year) than that in children. More than 50% of infections in men, women, and children were estimated to be due to contact with adult men. We conclude that estimates of infection incidence based on surveys in children might underestimate incidence in adults. Most infections may be due to contact with adult men. Treatment and control of tuberculosis in men is critical to protecting men, women, and children from tuberculosis.

Clinical, molecular and drug sensitivity pattern of mycobacterial isolates from extra-pulmonary tuberculosis cases in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

In conjunction with the spread of HIV infection, tuberculosis (TB) remains a major cause of illness and death worldwide. The Ethiopian national report reveals that extra pulmonary tuberculosis is on the rise and that case detection rate is exceeding that of smear positive or negative cases in many parts of the country. Different studies indicated that host and/or pathogen related factors are associated with the rise of extra pulmonary cases. However, the reason for this is not clearly known in our setting.

METHODS

Specimens were taken from clinically suspected extra pulmonary patients and confirmed by cytology, histopathology and culture. Deletion typing and Spoligotyping was utilized to identify the strains. The isolates were then assigned to lineage using conformal Bayesian network (rules model) algorithm and dendrograms were drawn using UPGMA methods. In addition, drug sensitivity test was done using the indirect proportion and 24 well plate methods.

RESULTS

Out of the 200 clinically suspected extra pulmonary tuberculosis patients, 106 (53 %) were between 15 and 35 years of age and 167 (83.5 %) were new while 33 (16.5 %) were retreatment cases. The culture yield was 29.5 % (59). Of these only one was M. bovis and 58 were M. tuberculosis strains with 31 different spoligotype patterns grouped into seven clusters. The largest cluster (ST53) comprised 12 (20.3 %) isolates. There was higher clustering of CAS isolates in TBLN than in any other form of extra pulmonary tuberculosis cases. Resistance to rifampicin was higher (22 %) than that for INH, STM and EMB (8.1 %, 5 % and 3 % respectively). Out of the 37 isolates tested for resistance, only 2 isolates were resistant for both STM and INH and no MDR strain was found.

CONCLUSIONS

There is an ongoing active recent transmission among extra pulmonary tuberculosis in the study areas as shown by the presence of clusters. Although no MDR case was observed, there is a risk of emergence of MDR as noted from the high proportion of resistance to rifampicin. Detailed study at population level is recommended to monitor its trend.

Prisons as reservoir for community transmission of tuberculosis, Brazil

We conducted a population-based study of tuberculosis (TB) cases in Dourados, Brazil, to assess the relationship between incarceration and TB in the general population. Incarceration was associated with TB in an urban population; 54% of Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains were related to strains from persons in prisons. TB control in prisons is critical for reducing disease prevalence.

Identifying locations of recent TB transmission in rural Uganda: a multidisciplinary approach

OBJECTIVES

Targeting high Tuberculosis (TB) transmission sites may offer a novel approach to TB prevention in sub-Saharan Africa. We sought to characterise TB transmission sites in a rural Ugandan township.

METHODS

We recruited adults starting TB treatment in Tororo, Uganda, over 1 year. Fifty four TB cases provided names of frequent contacts, sites of residence, health care, work and social activities, and two sputum samples. Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) culture-positive specimens underwent spoligotyping to identify strains with shared genotypes. We visualised TB case social networks, and obtained, mapped and geo-coded global positioning system measures for every location that cases reported frequenting 1 month before treatment. Locations of spatial overlap among genotype-clustered cases were considered potential transmission sites.

RESULTS

Six distinct genotypic clusters were identified involving 21 of 33 (64%) MTB culture-positive, genotyped cases; none shared a home. Although 18 of 54 (33%) TB cases shared social network ties, none of the genotype-clustered cases shared social ties. Using spatial analysis, we identified potential sites of within-cluster TB transmission for five of six genotypic clusters. All sites but one were healthcare and social venues, including sites of drinking, worship and marketplaces. Cases reported spending the largest proportion of pre-treatment person-time (22.4%) at drinking venues.

CONCLUSIONS

Using molecular epidemiology, geospatial and social network data from adult TB cases identified at clinics, we quantified person-time spent at high-risk locations across a rural Ugandan community and determined the most likely sites of recent TB transmission to be healthcare and social venues. These sites may not have been identified using contact investigation alone.

Role of casual contacts in the recent transmission of tuberculosis in settings with high disease burden

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. It is expected that combining multiple molecular methods will further help in focusing contact investigations. We performed a population-based molecular epidemiological study in six sites in China between 1 June 2009 and 31 December 2010. A genotyping method combining 7-loci MIRU-VNTR and IS6110-based RFLP was employed to determine predictors of recent transmission. A second interview was performed with the clustered patients to identify potential epidemiological links. The molecular clustering analysis revealed that 187 isolates (15.3%) were clustered by sharing identical VNTR-IS6110 combined patterns, with an estimated recent transmission index being 8.9%. None of these patients reported having contacts with other members within the same cluster. Nineteen of 121 reported having a history of contact with a TB case within 2 years before the current TB diagnosis. Additionally, geographical correlation was established for 19 cases in nine clusters, while only one possible epidemiological link was established in secondary interview. The results underscore the role of casual contact or reactivation of latent TB as a driving factor maintaining the current endemicity in rural China, with high disease burdens of tuberculosis.

Transmission of tuberculosis in a South African community with a high prevalence of HIV infection

BACKGROUND

In settings of high tuberculosis transmission, little is known of the interaction between human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) positive and HIV-negative tuberculosis disease and of the impact of antiretroviral treatment (ART) programs on tuberculosis transmission dynamics.

METHODS

Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates were collected from patients with tuberculosis who resided in a South African township with a high burden of tuberculosis and HIV infection. Demographic and clinical data were extracted from clinic records. Isolates underwent IS6110-based restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis. Patients with unique (nonclustered) M. tuberculosis genotypes and cluster index cases (ie, the first tuberculosis case in a cluster) were defined as having tuberculosis due to reactivation of latent M. tuberculosis infection. Secondary cases in clusters were defined as having tuberculosis due to recent M. tuberculosis infection.

RESULTS

Overall, 311 M. tuberculosis genotypes were identified among 718 isolates from 710 patients; 224 (31%) isolates were unique strains, and 478 (67%) occurred in 87 clusters. Cluster index cases were significantly more likely than other tuberculosis cases to be HIV negative. HIV-positive patients were more likely to be secondary cases (P = .001), including patients receiving ART (P = .004). Only 8% of cases of adult-adult transmission of tuberculosis occurred on shared residential plots.

CONCLUSIONS

Recent infection accounted for the majority of tuberculosis cases, particularly among HIV-positive patients, including patients receiving ART. HIV-negative patients may be disproportionally responsible for ongoing transmission.

Molecular characterization of Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolated from pulmonary tuberculosis patients in Felege Hiwot Referral Hospital, northwest Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis (TB), caused by the Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC), is a serious infection in humans and animals. Ethiopia is one of the countries in Sub-Saharan Africa with the highest burden of TB. However, limited information is available on the genotypic characteristics of M. tuberculosis strains infecting humans. The objective of the present study was to characterize the mycobacterial species isolated from pulmonary TB patients using molecular typing.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A cross-sectional study was conducted on 123 patients with smear-positive pulmonary TB, using Ziehl Neelsen staining and bacteriological culturing. Molecular characterizations of the mycobacterial isolates were performed using region of difference 9 (RD9) deletion typing and spoligotyping methods.

RESULTS

The proportion of culture positivity was 95.9% (118/123). All the 118 isolates were confirmed to be M. tuberculosis by polymerase chain reaction-based RD9 deletion typing. Further characterization of all isolates using spoligotyping resulted in the identification of 36 different spoligotype patterns. Out of these, 32 (88.9%) patterns have already been reported in the SpolDB database, whereas the remaining four (11.1%) patterns were new and not registered in the database. The isolates were further grouped into 17 clustered (99 isolates) and 19 nonclustered patterns. The most predominant spoligotypes were SIT25 and SIT53, consisting of 22 isolates and 14 isolates, respectively. Classification of the spoligotype patterns using TB-insight RUN SPOTCLUST showed that the dominant lineages identified in the present study were Euro-American and Central Asian genotypes consisting of 64 isolates and 37 isolates, respectively.

CONCLUSION

This study confirmed the presence of known M. tuberculosis strains and revealed new strains circulating in northwest Ethiopia and the distribution of the major phylogenetic families. It thus contributes to a better understanding of the genotypic profile of M. tuberculosis strains circulating in Ethiopia.

Spoligotyping of Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates among pulmonary tuberculosis patients in Amhara Region, Ethiopia

The aim of this study was to characterize Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates circulating in the Amhara Region of Ethiopia. Sputum samples were collected from new pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) patients in the Region. Genotyping of mycobacterial DNA was performed by spoligotyping and isolates were assigned to families using the SpolDB4 and the model-based program 'Spotclust'. A high level of diversity was found among the 237 isolates. Sixty-five different spoligopatterns were obtained. The T (30.8%), Central Asian (CAS; 21.1%) and U (17.7%) families were the predominant isolates comprising 69.6% of the total strains. Eighty-five per cent of the U lineage belonged to Spoligo-International-Type (SIT) 910 and SIT 1729. Only a few of these strains are included in SpolDB4 to date. Of the total strains, 41 (17.3%) were unique and have not been described in SpolDB4 to date. This study indicated that the TB epidemic in Amhara Region, Ethiopia, is characterized by the circulation of numerous M. tuberculosis strain families. The high proportion of SIT 910 and SIT 1729 strains may indicate an increase in the importance of these lineages in the transmission of TB in the study region.

Influence of sampling on clustering and associations with risk factors in the molecular epidemiology of tuberculosis

Molecular epidemiologic studies may use genotypic clustering of isolates as an indicator of recent transmission. It has been shown that missing cases lead to underestimating clustering, and modelling studies suggested that they may also lead to underestimating odds ratios for clustering. Using a national, comprehensive database from the Netherlands covering 15 years between 1993 and 2007 and including over 12,000 patients and their isolates, the authors determined the effects of sampling at random, in time, and by geographic area. As expected, sampling reduced the observed clustering percentages. However, sampling did not reduce the observed odds ratios for clustering. The main explanations for this discrepancy with model outcomes were that a substantial proportion of clustered cases were found in large clusters and that risk factors for clustering tended to be-among clustered cases-also risk factors for large clusters. The authors conclude that, in settings where risk factors for clustering may be interpreted as risk factors for recent transmission, these risk factors are also associated with larger cluster sizes. As a result, odds ratios would show limited sampling bias.

Married to M. tuberculosis: risk of infection and disease in spouses of smear-positive tuberculosis patients

OBJECTIVES

To quantify the risk of infection and disease in spouses of tuberculosis patients and the extent to which intervention could reduce the risk in this highly exposed group.

METHODS

We compared HIV prevalence, TB prevalence and incidence and tuberculin skin test (TST) results in spouses of TB patients and community controls. HIV-positive spouses were offered isoniazid preventive therapy (IPT), and TST was repeated at 6, 12 and 24 months.

RESULTS

We recruited 148 spouses of smear-positive patients ascertained prospectively and 3% had active TB. We identified 203 spouses of previously diagnosed smear-positive patients, 11 had already had TB, and the rate of TB was 2.4 per 100 person years(py) over 2 years (95% CI 1.15-5.09). 116 were found alive and recruited. HIV prevalence was 37% and 39% in the prospective and retrospective spouse groups and 17% in controls. TST was ≥10 mm in 80% of HIV negative and in 57% of HIV-positive spouses ascertained retrospectively; 74% HIV negative and 62% HIV-positive spouses ascertained prospectively, and 48% HIV negative and 26% HIV-positive community controls. Of 54 HIV-positive spouses, 18 completed 6-month IPT. At 2 year follow-up, 87% of surviving spouses had TST ≥10 mm and the rate of TB was 1.1 per 100 py (95% CI 0.34-3.29).

CONCLUSIONS

Spouses are a high-risk group who should be screened for HIV and active TB. TST prevalence was already high by the time the spouses were approached but further infections were seen to occur. Uptake and adherence to IPT was disappointing, lessening the impact of short-duration therapy.

Typing of Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains isolated in Community Health Centers of Rio de Janeiro City, Brazil

Fingerprinting of Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains from tuberculosis (TB) patients attended in Community Health Centers (CHCs) of Rio de Janeiro was performed to verify possible risk factors for TB transmission. A prospective community-based study was performed during the period of July 1996 to December 1996 by collecting sputum samples of 489 patients in 11 different CHCs in four different planning areas (APs) of the city. Bacteriological, clinical, and epidemiological information was collected and M. tuberculosis genotypes defined after restriction fragment length polymorphism (IS6110-RFLP) and double repetitive element (DRE) fingerprinting of RFLP-clustered cases. Risk factors for TB transmission were looked for using three levels of cluster stringency. Among 349 (71%) positive cultures obtained, IS6110-RFLP typing could be performed on strains from 153 different patients. When using identity of RFLP patterns as cluster definition, 49 (32%) of the strains belonged to a cluster and none of the clinical or epidemiologic characteristics was associated with higher clustering levels. However, higher clustering level was observed in the AP including the central region of the city when compared to others. This strongly suggests that more recent transmission occurs in that area and this may be related with higher incidence of TB and HIV in this region.

Tuberculosis transmission in a high incidence area: a retrospective molecular epidemiological study of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in Casablanca, Morocco

Like in most developing countries, tuberculosis represents a major public health problem in Morocco. This paper describes the first study combining molecular and conventional epidemiology of tuberculosis in Casablanca, the economic capital of this country. Molecular fingerprinting of the genomic DNA recovered from cultures of sputum of 150 patients was performed by MIRU-VNTR. This molecular marker revealed that 53.1% of the total cases were clustered. These cases were classified into 23 clusters ranging in size from 2 to 13 patients, suggesting a rate of 37% of recent transmission in the sample under study. In a multivariate analysis, there were no independent predictors of clustering. However, the clinical form was associated with drug resistance (odds ratio=9.9; P value=0.0006). The phylogenetic analysis showed that the heterogeneity found in this population includes also the members from a same patient family, and that the 2 major families distributed in Casablanca were the Latin-American-Mediterranean (LAM) and Haarlem families. All the results of this work allow to understand better the tuberculosis transmission in Casablanca, and suggest that different clones of M. tuberculosis seem to circulate in this city, and that the reactivation of latent infections would be mainly responsible for the endemic situation of this disease. These findings indicate also that the transmission of TB in Morocco is not optimally controlled, and that efforts for control strategies should be sustained in all developing countries where the incidence of TB is high and still raising.

First molecular epidemiology study of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in Burkina Faso

We conducted a molecular epidemiology study on 120 Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates from patients presenting pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) in Burkina Faso. Classical antibiogram studies and genetic characterization, using mycobacterial interspersed repetitive-unit-variable-number tandem-repeat (MIRU-VNTR) typing and spoligotyping, were applied after culture. Molecular analysis of specific signatures showed that all TB cases reported in this study were caused by M. tuberculosis and identified no Mycobacterium bovis or Mycobacterium africanum isolates. This result is unexpected, as M. africanum strains were reportedly the etiologic agent in 20% of TB cases 2 decades ago. The comparison of spoligotypes from Burkina Faso with an international spoligotype database (SpolDB4) showed that the majority of isolates belong to major clades of M. tuberculosis (Haarlem, 9%; Latin American-Mediterranean, 30%; and T, 20%). The predominant group of isolates (30%) corresponds to spoligotype 61, described in Cameroon as the "Cameroon family." In Burkina Faso, as in Cameroon, this family could be associated with recent transmission of TB, suggesting a recent expansion in West Africa. Our data suggest a low level of primary drug resistance that may be a positive result of the Directly Observed Therapy Shortcourse program. Besides, based on spoligotyping plus MIRU-VNTR, data showed a high number of clusters in our sample, suggesting a high level of recent TB transmission in Burkina Faso. Nevertheless, an important genetic polymorphism was observed in this country, reflecting an endemicity situation where the control of TB would have less impact in the main towns.

Population-based prospective molecular and conventional epidemiological study of tuberculosis in Hong Kong

OBJECTIVE

To study the transmission of tuberculosis using conventional and molecular epidemiology in Hong Kong.

METHODS

All patients with positive sputum culture for Mycobacterium tuberculosis residing on the Island of Hong Kong were recruited from May 1999 to April 2002. The restriction fragment length polymorphism technique was used to determine DNA patterns of isolates of M. tuberculosis using the IS6110 probe, supplemented by pTBN12 as a secondary probe.

RESULTS

One thousand five hundred and fifty-three of 2337 (66%) of the patients with bacteriologically confirmed tuberculosis had restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis of their M. tuberculosis isolates. Four hundred and fifty-four (29.2%) patients belonging to 143 clusters were identified; the estimated rate of recent transmission was 20-24%. Significant predictors of clustering included young-age groups (<40 years) versus those >60 years of age (adjusted odds ratio (OR) 1.96, 95% confidence interval 1.47-2.62), permanent residency versus new or non-residents (adjusted OR 3.40, 95% 1.84-6.26) and previous default from treatment versus new cases (adjusted OR 6.12, 95% confidence interval 1.82-20.5). Alcohol and drug abuse, history of imprisonment and HIV infection were not significant risk factors for molecular clustering. Of patients belonging to clusters, 5.1% had definite, 5.5% had probable and 24.4% had possible epidemiological link, suggesting casual contact may be responsible for a high proportion of the clustered cases.

CONCLUSION

One-fifth to one quarter of the new cases of active tuberculosis in Hong Kong are due to recent transmission. In addition to early diagnosis and successful treatment of all active disease, treatment of latent disease should receive more attention in the control of tuberculosis in Hong Kong.

Tuberculosis transmission attributable to close contacts and HIV status, Malawi

In this population, ≈90% of M. tuberculosis infections were transmitted by casual contact, and nearly half from HIV-positive patients.

We conducted the first molecular study of tuberculosis (TB) to estimate the role of household contact and transmission from HIV-positive putative source contacts (PSCs) in a high HIV-prevalence area. TB patients in a long-term population-based study in Malawi were asked about past contact with TB. DNA fingerprinting was used to define clusters of cases with identical strains. Among 143 epidemiologically defined PSC-case pairs, fingerprinting confirmed transmission for 44% of household and family contacts and 18% of other contacts. Transmission was less likely to be confirmed if the PSC were HIV positive than if he or she was HIV negative (odds ratio 0.32, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.14–0.74). Overall, epidemiologic links were found for 11% of 754 fingerprint-clustered cases. We estimate that 9%–13% of TB cases were attributable to recent transmission from identifiable close contacts and that nearly half of the TB cases arising from recent infection had acquired the infection from HIV-positive patients.

“The more I give, the more I receive”

Personal reflections on 12 years as a doctor in Africa.

High rates of clustering of strains causing tuberculosis in Harare, Zimbabwe: a molecular epidemiological study

We examined the pattern of tuberculosis (TB) transmission (i.e., reactivation versus recent transmission) and the impact of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in Harare, Zimbabwe. Consecutive adult smear-positive pulmonary TB patients presenting to an urban hospital in Harare were enrolled. A detailed epidemiological questionnaire was completed, and tests for HIV type 1 and CD4 cell counts were performed for each patient. Molecular fingerprinting of the genomic DNA recovered from cultures of sputum was performed by two molecular typing methods: spacer oligonucleotide typing (spoligotyping) and analysis of variable number of tandem DNA repeats (VNTRs). A cluster was defined as isolates from two or more patients that shared the same spoligotype pattern or the same VNTR pattern, or both. DNA suitable for typing was recovered from 224 patients. The prevalence of HIV infection was 79%. Of 187 patient isolates (78.6%) typed by both spoligotyping and analysis of VNTRs, 147 were identified as part of a cluster by both methods. By spoligotyping alone, 84.1% of patient isolates were grouped into 20 clusters. The cluster size was generally <8 patient isolates, although three large clusters comprised 68, 25, and 23 patient isolates. A total of 89.4% of the patient isolates grouped into 12 clusters defined by analysis of VNTRs, with 2 large clusters consisting of 127 and 13 patient isolates, respectively. Thirty-six percent of patient isolates with a shared spoligotype and 17% with a shared VNTR pattern were geographically linked within Harare, but they were not linked on the basis of the patient's home district. In a multivariate analysis, there were no independent predictors of clustering, including HIV infection status. Comparison with the International Spoligotype database (Pasteur Institute, Pointe a Pitre, Guadeloupe) demonstrated that our three largest spoligotype clusters are well recognized and ubiquitous in Africa. In this epidemiologically well characterized urban population with a high prevalence of HIV infection, we identified a very high level of strain clustering, indicating substantial ongoing recent TB transmission. Geographic linkage could be detected in a proportion of these clusters. A small group of actively circulating strains accounted for most of the cases of TB transmission.

Molecular epidemiology of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in western Sweden

The genetic diversity of Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates among patients from Sweden was determined by a combination of two PCR-based techniques (spoligotyping and variable number of tandem repeats analysis). It resulted in a clustering of 23.6% of the isolates and a rate of recent transmission of 14.1%. The clustered isolates mainly belonged to the Haarlem family (23.2%), followed by the Beijing (9.8%), Latin American and Mediterranean (LAM; 8%), and East African-Indian (EAI; 6.2%) families. A comparison of the spoligotypes with those in the international spoligotyping database showed that 62.5% of the clustered isolates and 36.6% of all isolates typed were grouped into six major shared types. A comparison of the spoligotypes with those in databases for Scandinavian countries showed that 33% of the isolates belonged to an ill-defined T family, followed by the EAI (22%), Haarlem (20%), LAM (11%), Central Asian (5%), X (5%), and Beijing (4%) families. Both the highest number of cases and the proportion of clustered cases were observed in patients ages 15 to 39 years. Nearly 10% of the isolates were resistant to one or more drugs (essentially limited to isoniazid monoresistance). However, none of the strains were multidrug resistant. Data on the geographic origins of the patients showed that more than two-thirds of the clustered patients with tuberculosis were foreign-born individuals or refugees. These results are explained on the basis of both the historical links within specific countries and recently imported cases of tuberculosis into Sweden.

Can we control tuberculosis in high HIV prevalence settings?

The overlap between the epidemiology of HIV and tuberculosis and consequent rapid rise in numbers of patients with tuberculosis in many African countries has put a huge burden on health systems. The stigma of HIV has increased the existing stigma surrounding tuberculosis. There are three mechanisms by which we may reduce the number of cases of tuberculosis in a community: reducing transmission of tuberculosis, reducing reactivation of latent tuberculosis infection and reducing HIV transmission. Reinforcing the existing health service to find more cases, active case-finding in communities or enhanced case-finding in specific groups will reduce transmission of tuberculosis. However, health services that find it difficult to find cases efficiently will also find it difficult to support patients throughout treatment to achieve a cure. Partnership with traditional healers, community-based organizations and private practitioners could reduce this burden. Reactivation of tuberculosis among people living with HIV can be reduced by tuberculosis preventive therapy or by antiretroviral therapy. Programmes that identify people living with HIV can also implement enhanced tuberculosis case-finding increasing the benefits of the programme. However, the impact of widespread use of antiretroviral therapy may be to increase the number of people in a community who are mildly immunocompromised and the incidence of tuberculosis at a community level might rise. Any strategy that successfully reduces HIV transmission will benefit tuberculosis control, since around a third of all HIV-positive individuals will develop tuberculosis before they die. To control tuberculosis in high HIV prevalence settings, we must strengthen health systems to include not only expansion of the DOTS strategy but also full-blooded implementation of voluntary counselling and testing, enhanced and active tuberculosis case-finding, preventive therapy and better care for people living with HIV including antiretroviral therapy. The approach needed to control tuberculosis needs also to be integrated into broader development and poverty reduction goals.

Molecular epidemiology of tuberculosis in Turkey

Our objective was to determine the extent of fingerprint pattern diversity of Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates from Turkey. Of the 320 patient isolates, 81 (25.3%) carried </= 5 copies of IS6110. The combination of two typing procedures on isolates from 317 patients identified 157 strains as unique and clustered 160 isolates in 59 clusters. In spite of the fact that the patients originated from a large geographic area and represented only a small fraction (1.5%) of the patients in the country, 50.5% of the isolates were clustered.

Molecular and conventional epidemiology of tuberculosis in Hong Kong: a population-based prospective study

A prospective population-based molecular and conventional epidemiological study of 65.4% of bacteriologically confirmed cases of tuberculosis was carried out on the island of Hong Kong from May 1999 to Oct 2000 by the IS6110-based restriction fragment length polymorphism technique. Eleven of the isolates had five or fewer bands; 24.5% of the remaining 691 isolates belonged to clusters. The estimated proportion of recently transmitted disease was 15 to 20%.

Evaluation and utilization as a public health tool of a national molecular epidemiological tuberculosis outbreak database within the United Kingdom from 1997 to 2001

The aim of this study was to develop a national model and analyze the value of a molecular epidemiological Mycobacterium tuberculosis DNA fingerprint-outbreak database. Incidents were investigated by the United Kingdom PHLS Mycobacterium Reference Unit (MRU) from June 1997 to December 2001, inclusive. A total of 124 incidents involving 972 tuberculosis cases, including 520 patient cultures from referred incidents and 452 patient cultures related to two population studies, were examined by using restriction fragment length polymorphism IS6110 fingerprinting and rapid epidemiological typing. Investigations were divided into the following three categories, reflecting different operational strategies: retrospective passive analysis, retrospective active analysis, and retrospective prospective analysis. The majority of incidents were in the retrospective passive analysis category, i.e., the individual submitting isolates has a suspicion they may be linked. Outbreaks were examined in schools, hospitals, farms, prisons, and public houses, and laboratory cross-contamination events and unusual clinical presentations were investigated. Retrospective active analysis involved a major outbreak centered on a high school. Contact tracing of a teenager with smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis matched 14 individuals, including members of his class, and another 60 cases were identified in schools clinically and radiologically and by skin testing. Retrospective prospective analysis involved an outbreak of 94 isoniazid-resistant tuberculosis cases in London, United Kingdom, that began after cases were identified at one hospital in January 2000. Contact tracing and comparison with MRU databases indicated that the earliest matched case had occurred in 1995. Subsequently, the MRU changed to an active prospective analysis targeting linked isoniazid-monoresistant isolates for follow up. The patients were multiethnic, born mainly in the United Kingdom, and included professionals, individuals from the music industry, intravenous drug abusers, and prisoners.

The application of geographical information systems to important public health problems in Africa

Africa is generally held to be in crisis, and the quality of life for the majority of the continent's inhabitants has been declining in both relative and absolute terms. In addition, the majority of the world's disease burden is realised in Africa. Geographical information systems (GIS) technology, therefore, is a tool of great inherent potential for health research and management in Africa. The spatial modelling capacity offered by GIS is directly applicable to understanding the spatial variation of disease, and its relationship to environmental factors and the health care system. Whilst there have been numerous critiques of the application of GIS technology to developed world health problems it has been less clear whether the technology is both applicable and sustainable in an African setting. If the potential for GIS to contribute to health research and planning in Africa is to be properly evaluated then the technology must be applicable to the most pressing health problems in the continent. We briefly outline the work undertaken in HIV, malaria and tuberculosis (diseases of significant public health impact and contrasting modes of transmission), outline GIS trends relevant to Africa and describe some of the obstacles to the sustainable implementation of GIS. We discuss types of viable GIS applications and conclude with a discussion of the types of African health problems of particular relevance to the application of GIS.

Controlling tuberculosis in India

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis kills nearly 500,000 people in India each year. Until recently, less than half of patients with tuberculosis received an accurate diagnosis, and less than half of those received effective treatment.

METHODS

We analyzed the effects of new policies introduced in 1993 that have resulted in increased resources, improved laboratory-based diagnosis, direct observation of treatment, and the use of standardized antituberculosis regimens and reporting methods.

RESULTS

By September 2001, more than 200,000 health workers had been trained, and 436 million people (more than 40 percent of the entire population) had access to services. About 3.4 million patients had been evaluated for tuberculosis, and nearly 800,000 had received treatment, with a success rate greater than 80 percent. More than half of all those treated in the past 8 years were treated in the past 12 months.

CONCLUSIONS

India's tuberculosis-control program has been successful in improving access to care, the quality of diagnosis, and the likelihood of successful treatment. We estimate that the improved program has prevented 200,000 deaths, with indirect savings of more than $400 million--more than eight times the cost of implementation. It will be a substantial challenge to sustain and expand the program, given the country's level of economic development, limited primary health care system, and large and mostly unregulated private health care system, as well as the dual threats of the human immunodeficiency virus and multidrug-resistant tuberculosis.

Can tuberculosis be controlled?

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis (TB) is nearly 100% curable. However, the ability of medical and public health interventions to control TB, particularly in developing countries, is often doubted.

METHODS

We reviewed data for the amenability of TB to control. We considered separately control of deaths, prevalence, rate of infection and incidence.

RESULTS

Tuberculosis mortality can be reduced by more than 80% in less than 5 years. The prevalence of TB can be reduced by 30% or more annually; sustained annual decreases of 17% have been documented in a developing country. The TB infection rate can be reduced by 15% annually. In the absence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), TB incidence can be decreased by as much as 25% per year and up to 10% annually in developing countries. A high prevalence of untreated HIV infection in the adult population of a developing country will inevitably result in a significant increase in TB incidence despite optimal use of currently available technologies.

CONCLUSIONS

Tuberculosis can be controlled if appropriate policies are followed, effective clinical and public health management is ensured, and there are committed and co-ordinated efforts from within and outside the health sector. However, in the context of a large epidemic of AIDS, TB incidence will inevitably increase. By 2001, less than 30% of global TB cases were reported to have received effective diagnosis, treatment and monitoring. Rapid expansion of effective TB control services is urgently required, both to avert the continued high burden of morbidity and mortality from TB and because of the HIV pandemic.

Mycobacterium africanum subtype II is associated with two distinct genotypes and is a major cause of human tuberculosis in Kampala, Uganda

The population structure of 234 Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex strains obtained during 1995 and 1997 from tuberculosis patients living in Kampala, Uganda (East Africa), was analyzed by routine laboratory procedures, spoligotyping, and IS6110 restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) typing. According to biochemical test results, 157 isolates (67%) were classified as M. africanum subtype II (resistant to thiophen-2-carboxylic acid hydrazide), 76 isolates (32%) were classified as M. tuberculosis, and 1 isolate was classified as classical M. bovis. Spoligotyping did not lead to clear differentiation of M. tuberculosis and M. africanum, but all M. africanum subtype II isolates lacked spacers 33 to 36, differentiating them from M. africanum subtype I. Moreover, spoligotyping was not sufficient for differentiation of isolates on the strain level, since 193 (82%) were grouped into clusters. In contrast, in the IS6110-based dendrogram, M. africanum strains were clustered into two closely related strain families (Uganda I and II) and clearly separated from the M. tuberculosis isolates. A further characteristic of both M. africanum subtype II families was the absence of spoligotype spacer 40. All strains of family I also lacked spacer 43. The clustering rate obtained by the combination of spoligotyping and RFLP IS6110 analysis was similar for M. africanum and M. tuberculosis, as 46% and 49% of the respective isolates were grouped into clusters. The results presented demonstrate that M. africanum subtype II isolates from Kampala, Uganda, belong to two closely related genotypes, which may represent unique phylogenetic branches within the M. tuberculosis complex. We conclude that M. africanum subtype II is the main cause of human tuberculosis in Kampala, Uganda.

HIV-1/AIDS and the control of other infectious diseases in Africa

The effect of HIV-1 on other infectious diseases in Africa is an increasing public health concern. In this review, we describe the role that three major infectious diseases--malaria, sexually transmitted diseases (STDs), and tuberculosis--have had in the HIV-1 epidemic. The high prevalence of untreated STD infections has been a major factor facilitating the spread of HIV-1 in Africa; with the synergistic interaction between HIV-1 transmission and genital herpes being of special concern for control of both diseases. Increased susceptibility to tuberculosis after infection with HIV-1 has led to a rising incidence and threat of increased transmission of tuberculosis. Clinical malaria occurs with an increased frequency and severity in HIV-1-infected individuals, especially during pregnancy. As with tuberculosis, STDs, and other communicable HIV-1-associated diseases, the net effect of HIV-1 might include increased rates of malaria transmission across communities. In addition to enhancing access to HIV-1 prevention and care, public health surveillance and control programmes should be greatly intensified to cope with the new realities of infectious disease control in Africa.

Molecular epidemiology and drug resistance of Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates from Ethiopian pulmonary tuberculosis patients with and without human immunodeficiency virus infection

We have analyzed the molecular epidemiology and drug resistance of 121 Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates from consecutive patients with culture-positive pulmonary tuberculosis attending a university hospital outpatient department in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis and spoligotyping were used to analyze the DNA fingerprinting patterns. Fifty-one (41.2%) of the isolates were found in 13 clusters with two or more identical DNA patterns. Two such clusters contained 49.0% of all clustered isolates. In a multivariate logistic regression model, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive serostatus was significantly associated with clustering of isolates for patients of both sexes (odds ratio [OR], 2.55; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.17 to 5.80). There was a trend toward increased clustering of isolates from tuberculous women residing in Addis Ababa (OR, 2.10; 95% CI, 0.85 to 5.25). In total, 17 of 121 isolates (14.0%) were resistant to one or more of the antituberculosis drugs isoniazid (8.3%), streptomycin (7.4%), rifampin (2.5%), and ethambutol (1.7%). The high rate of drug-resistant isolates (29.6%) coincided with the peak prevalence of HIV infection (77.8%) in patients 35 to 44 years old. The majority (62.5%) of resistant isolates in this group were found within clusters. The simultaneous accumulation of certain bacterial clones in a patient population likely reflects recent transmission. Hence, we conclude that tuberculosis is commonly caused by recent infection with M. tuberculosis in HIV-positive Ethiopian patients. Furthermore, with the rapidly increasing prevalence of HIV infection in Ethiopia, the burden of tuberculosis, including drug-resistant tuberculosis, is likely to increase. Strengthening of classical tuberculosis control measures by promoting active case finding among HIV-positive adults with tuberculosis is warranted to reduce rates of transmission.

Sampling bias in the molecular epidemiology of tuberculosis

Among the goals of the molecular epidemiology of infectious disease are to quantify the extent of ongoing transmission of infectious agents and to identify host- and strain-specific risk factors for disease spread. I demonstrate the potential bias in estimates of recent transmission and the impact of risk factors for clustering by using computer simulations to reconstruct populations of tuberculosis patients and sample from them. The bias consistently results in underestimating recent transmission and the impact of risk factors for recent transmission.

The global tuberculosis situation. Progress and problems in the 20th century, prospects for the 21st century

Mycobacterium tuberculosis has been identified in prehistoric remains of humans. Despite references to TB by Hippocrates and Galen, humankind had limited understanding of and few tools to defend itself against TB until the later 19th century. Subsequently, landmark advances in the 20th century provided the means to control and prevent this disease. At the same time, epidemiological developments and fundamental problems related to human behavior, socioeconomic conditions, and political circumstances continue to thwart efforts to diminish the burden of suffering and death caused by TB. This article reviewed some of these issues including the global failure of TB control in the late 20th century, the worldwide emergence of drug-resistant TB, the extensive spread of HIV infection and its impact on TB incidence; and changing health care and political environments. The obstacles to TB control remain and will remain challenges in the coming years. Still, recent developments in immunology, biochemistry, and molecular biology suggest that new knowledge and tools are just around the corner. These will enhance the ability to conquer this microbe by the end of the current century.

Molecular and conventional epidemiology of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in Botswana: a population-based prospective study of 301 pulmonary tuberculosis patients

Little is known about patterns of tuberculosis (TB) transmission among populations in developing countries with high rates of TB and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. To examine patterns of TB transmission in such a setting, we performed a population-based DNA fingerprinting study among TB patients in Botswana. Between January 1997 and July 1998, TB patients from four communities in Botswana were interviewed and offered HIV testing. Their Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates underwent DNA fingerprinting using IS6110 restriction fragment length polymorphism, and those with matching fingerprints were reinterviewed. DNA fingerprints with >5 bands were considered clustered if they were either identical or differed by at most one band, while DNA fingerprints with < or =5 bands were considered clustered only if they were identical. TB isolates of 125 (42%) of the 301 patients with completed interviews and DNA fingerprints fell into 20 different clusters of 2 to 16 patients. HIV status was not associated with clustering. Prior imprisonment was the only statistically significant risk factor for clustering (risk ratio, 1.5; 95% confidence interval, 1.1 to 2.0). In three communities where the majority of eligible patients were enrolled, 26 (11%) of 243 patients overall and 26 (25%) of 104 clustered patients shared both a DNA fingerprint and strong antecedent epidemiologic link. Most of the increasing TB burden in Botswana may be attributable to reactivation of latent infection, but steps should be taken to control ongoing transmission in congregate settings. DNA fingerprinting helps determine loci of TB transmission in the community.

Tuberculosis control and molecular epidemiology in a South African gold-mining community

BACKGROUND

Gold miners have very high rates of tuberculosis. The contribution of infections imported into mining communities versus transmission within them is not known and has implications for control strategies.

METHODS

We did a prospective, population-based molecular and conventional epidemiological study of pulmonary tuberculosis in a group of goldminers. Clusters were defined as groups of patients with Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates with identical IS6110 DNA fingerprints. We compared the frequency of possible risk factors in the clustered and non-clustered patients whose isolates had fingerprints with more than four bands, and re-interviewed members of 45 clusters.

FINDINGS

Of 448 patients, ten were excluded because they had false-positive cultures. Fingerprints were made in 419 of 438, of which 371 had more than four bands. 248 of 371 were categorised into 62 clusters. At least 50% of tuberculosis cases were due to transmission within the community. Patients who had failed treatment at entry to the study were more likely to be in clusters (adjusted odds ratio 3.41 [95% CI 1.25-9.27]). Patients with multidrug-resistant isolates were more likely to have failed treatment but were less likely to be clustered than those with a sensitive strain (0.27 [0.09-0.83]). HIV infection was common (177 of 370 tested) but not associated with clustering.

INTERPRETATION

Despite a control programme that cures 86% of new cases, most tuberculosis in this mining community is due to ongoing transmission. Persistently infectious individuals who have previously failed treatment may be responsible for one third of tuberculosis cases. WHO targets for cure rates are not sufficient to interrupt transmission of tuberculosis in this setting. Indicators that are more closely linked to the rate of ongoing transmission are needed.

Phthisiology at the dawn of the new century

Tuberculosis (TB) has been and continues to be one of the most significant pathogens in terms of human morbidity and mortality. Although the resurgence of TB has been held in check in most developed countries, the epidemic rages on in most developing countries of the world. The specter of drug resistance is becoming a more credible challenge in many parts of the world, dimming the prospects of eventual elimination. However, great opportunities are arising as well, with an unprecedented focus on the global aspects of TB control. This article will review the status of TB today and put into perspective the prospects for its elimination in the coming century.

Spatial implications of the tuberculosis DOTS strategy in rural South Africa: a novel application of geographical information system and global positioning system technologies

We used GIS/GPS technology to document and quantify improved access to tuberculosis treatment through a community-based programme in Hlabisa, South Africa. We plotted tuberculosis supervision points used by the district health system in 1991 (programme's first year) and 1996 (programme fully established), and quantified access by using GIS to measure the mean distance from each homestead in the district to hospital, clinics, community health workers (CHW) and volunteer supervisors. While the tuberculosis caseload tripled, the number of community supervision points used increased from 37 in 1991 to 147 in 1996. Adding clinics and then CHWs to the hospital as treatment points reduced the mean distance from homestead to treatment point from 29.6 km to 4.2 km and to 1.9 km, respectively. Adding volunteers further decreased the distance to 800 m. GIS/GPS effectively documents and quantifies the impact of community-based tuberculosis treatment on access to treatment.

Relapse and mortality among HIV-infected and uninfected patients with tuberculosis successfully treated with twice weekly directly observed therapy in rural South Africa

OBJECTIVE

To determine post-treatment relapse and mortality rates among HIV-infected and uninfected patients with tuberculosis treated with a twice-weekly drug regimen under direct observation (DOT).

SETTING

Hlabisa, South Africa.

PATIENTS

A group of 403 patients with tuberculosis (53% HIV infected) cured following treatment with isoniazid (H), rifampicin (R), pyrazinamide (Z) and ethambutol (E) given in hospital (median 17 days), followed by HRZE twice weekly to 2 months and HR twice weekly to 6 months in the community under DOT.

METHODS

Relapses were identified through hospital readmission and 6-monthly home visits. Relapse (culture for Mycobacterium tuberculosis) and mortality given as rates per 100 person-years observation (PYO) stratified by HIV status and history of previous tuberculosis treatment.

RESULTS

Mean (SD) post-treatment follow-up was 1.2 (0.4) years (total PYO = 499); 78 patients (19%) left the area, 58 (14%) died, 248 (62%) remained well and 19 (5%) relapsed. Relapse rates in HIV-infected and uninfected patients were 3.9 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.5-6.3] and 3.6 (95% CI 1.1-6.1) per 100 PYO (P = 0.7). Probability of relapse at 18 months was estimated as 5% in each group. Mortality was four-fold higher among HIV-infected patients (17.8 and 4.4 deaths per 100 PYO for HIV-infected and uninfected patients, respectively; P<0.0001). Probability of survival at 24 months was estimated as 59% and 81%, respectively. We observed no increase in relapse or mortality among previously treated patients compared with new patients. A positive smear at 2 months did not predict relapse or mortality.

CONCLUSION

Relapse rates are acceptably low following successful DOT with a twice weekly rifampicin-containing regimen, irrespective of HIV status and previous treatment history. Mortality is substantially increased among HIV-infected patients even following successful DOT and this requires further attention.