A revised model for end-stage liver disease optimizes prediction of mortality among patients awaiting liver transplantation

Evaluating the Correlation Between Anteroposterior Diameter, Body Surface Area, and Height for Liver Transplant Donors and Recipients

Background

Small stature and female sex correlate to decreased deceased donor liver transplant (DDLT) access and higher waitlist mortality. However, efforts are being made to improve access and equity of allocation under the new continuous distribution (CD) system. Liver anteroposterior diameter (APD) is a method used by many centers to determine size compatibility for DDLT but is not recorded systematically, so it cannot be used for allocation algorithms. We therefore seek to correlate body surface area (BSA) and height to APD in donors and recipients and compare waitlist outcomes by these factors to support their use in the CD system.

Methods

APD was measured from single-center DDLT recipients and donors with cross-sectional imaging. Linear, Pearson, and PhiK correlation coefficient were used to correlate BSA and height to APD. Competing risk analysis of waitlist outcomes was performed using United Network for Organ Sharing data.

Results

For 143 pairs, donor BSA correlated better with APD than height (PhiK = 0.63 versus 0.20). For recipient all comers, neither BSA nor height were good correlates of APD, except in recipients without ascites, where BSA correlated well (PhiK = 0.63) but height did not. However, among female recipients, BSA, but not height, strongly correlated to APD regardless of ascites status (PhiK = 0.80 without, PhiK = 0.70 with). Among male recipients, BSA correlated to APD only in those without ascites (PhiK = 0.74). In multivariable models, both BSA and height were predictive of waitlist outcomes, with higher values being associated with increased access, decreased delisting for death/clinical deterioration, and decreased living donor transplant (model concordance 0.748 and 0.747, respectively).

Conclusions

Taken together, BSA is a good surrogate for APD and can therefore be used in allocation decision making in the upcoming CD era to offset size and gender-based disparities among certain candidate populations.

Development of a nomogram for predicting in-hospital mortality in patients with liver cirrhosis and sepsis

In this study, we aimed to investigate the risk factors associated with in-hospital mortality in patients with cirrhosis and sepsis, establish and validate the nomogram. This retrospective study included patients diagnosed with liver cirrhosis and sepsis in the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV). Models were compared by the area under the curve (AUC), integrated discriminant improvement (IDI), net reclassification index (NRI) and decision curve analysis (DCA). A total of 1,696 patients with cirrhosis and sepsis were included in the final cohort. Our final model included the following 9 variables: age, heartrate, total bilirubin (TBIL), glucose, sodium, anion gap (AG), fungal infections, mechanical ventilation, and vasopressin. The nomogram were constructed based on these variables. The AUC values of the nomograms were 0.805 (95% CI 0.776-0.833), which provided significantly higher discrimination compared to that of SOFA score [0.684 (95% CI 0.647-0.720)], MELD-Na [0.672 (95% CI 0.636-0.709)] and ABIC [0.674(95% CI 0.638-0.710)]. We established the first nomogram for predicting in-hospital mortality in patients with liver cirrhosis and sepsis based on these factors. This nomogram can performs well and facilitates clinicians to identify people at high risk of in-hospital mortality.

Model for end-stage liver disease-3.0 vs. model for end-stage liver disease-sodium: mortality prediction in Korea

BACKGROUND/AIMS

The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) serves as an indicator for short-term mortality among patients diagnosed with liver cirrhosis (LC) and is used to prioritize patients for liver transplantation. In 2021, the updated version of MELD, MELD-3.0, was introduced to improve the accuracy of the mortality prediction of MELD. Therefore, this study aimed to compare the efficacy of MELD 3.0 and MELD-Na in predicting mortality among Korean patients with LC.

METHODS

A retrospective review was conducted using the medical records of patients diagnosed with LC who were admitted to Konkuk University Hospital From 2011 to 2021. The study calculated the predictive values of MELD-Na and MELD-3.0 for 3- and 6-months mortality using the area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) and compared the results using the DeLong test.

RESULTS

Of the 3,034 patients enrolled in the study, 339 (11.2%) died within 3 months and 421 (14.4%) died within 6 months. The AUROCs values for predicting 3 months mortality were 0.846 for MELD-Na and 0.851 for MELD-3.0. The corresponding AUROC values for predicting 6 months mortality were 0.843 for MELD-Na and 0.848 for MELD-3.0. MELD-3.0 exhibited better discrimination ability than MELD-Na for both 3 (p = 0.03) and 6 months mortality (p = 0.01).

CONCLUSION

Our study found a significant difference between the performance of MELD-3.0 and MELD-Na in Korean patients with LC.

Hyponatremia in the Context of Liver Disease

Hyponatremia is common in patients with liver disease and is associated with increased mortality, morbidity, and a reduced quality of life. In liver transplantation, the inclusion of hyponatremia in organ allocation scores has reduced waitlist mortality. Portal hypertension and the resulting lowering of the effective arterial blood volume are important pathogenetic factors, but in most patients with liver disease, hyponatremia is multifactorial. Treatment requires a multifaceted approach that tries to reduce electrolyte-free water intake, restore urinary dilution, and increase nonelectrolyte solute excretion. Albumin therapy for hyponatremia is a peculiarity of advanced liver disease. Its use appears to be increasing, while the vaptans are currently only given in selected cases. Osmotic demyelination is a special concern in patients with liver disease. Serial checks of serum sodium concentrations and urine volume monitoring are mandatory.

Revising model for end-stage liver disease from calendar-time cross-sections with correction for selection bias

BACKGROUND

Eurotransplant liver transplant candidates are prioritized by Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD), a 90-day waitlist survival risk score based on the INR, creatinine and bilirubin. Several studies revised the original MELD score, UNOS-MELD, with transplant candidate data by modelling 90-day waitlist mortality from waitlist registration, censoring patients at delisting or transplantation. This approach ignores biomarkers reported after registration, and ignores informative censoring by transplantation and delisting.

METHODS

We study how MELD revision is affected by revision from calendar-time cross-sections and correction for informative censoring with inverse probability censoring weighting (IPCW). For this, we revised UNOS-MELD on patients with chronic liver cirrhosis on the Eurotransplant waitlist between 2007 and 2019 (n = 13,274) with Cox models with as endpoints 90-day survival (a) from registration and (b) from weekly drawn calendar-time cross-sections. We refer to the revised score from cross-section with IPCW as DynReMELD, and compare DynReMELD to UNOS-MELD and ReMELD, a prior revision of UNOS-MELD for Eurotransplant, in geographical validation.

RESULTS

Revising MELD from calendar-time cross-sections leads to significantly different MELD coefficients. IPCW increases estimates of absolute 90-day waitlist mortality risks by approximately 10 percentage points. DynReMELD has improved discrimination over UNOS-MELD (delta c-index: 0.0040, p < 0.001) and ReMELD (delta c-index: 0.0015, p < 0.01), with differences comparable in magnitude to the addition of an extra biomarker to MELD (delta c-index: ± 0.0030).

CONCLUSION

Correcting for selection bias by transplantation/delisting does not improve discrimination of revised MELD scores, but substantially increases estimated absolute 90-day mortality risks. Revision from cross-section uses waitlist data more efficiently, and improves discrimination compared to revision of MELD exclusively based on information available at listing.

Retrospective Analysis of the Impact of High- and Low-Quality Donor Livers for Patients with High-Acuity Illness

BACKGROUND Patients with high-acuity liver failure have increased access to marginal and split liver options, owing to historically high waitlist mortality rates. While most research states that donor liver quality has no impact on patients with high-acuity illness, there have been inconsistencies in recent research on how liver quality impacts post-transplant outcomes for these patients. We aimed to quantify donor liver quality with various post-transplantation patient outcomes for patients with high-acuity illness. MATERIAL AND METHODS Using the liver donor risk index (LDRI), model for end stage liver disease (MELD), and clinically relevant recipient factors, we used multivariate logistic regression to analyze how donor liver quality affects varying measures of patient outcomes for 9923 high-acuity patients from June 18, 2013, to June 18, 2022. RESULTS Using LDRI, high-quality livers had a significant protective impact on high-acuity patient mortality, compared with low-quality livers (OR=0.695 [0.549, 0.879], P=0.002). High-quality livers also had significant impact on graft survival (OR=0.706 [0.558, 0.894], P=0.004). Two sensitivity patient mortality analyses, excluding patients with status 1A and hepatocellular carcinoma, showed significant protective findings for high-quality livers. High-quality livers had insignificant outcomes on long-term survivor mortality, length of hospitalization, and primary non-function outcomes, compared with low-quality donor livers. CONCLUSIONS While our findings suggest donor quality has an impact on high-acuity patient outcomes, these findings indicate further research is needed in intent-to-treat analysis on clinical offer data to provide a clearer finding of how donor quality affects patients with high-acuity illness.

Pre-existing Hepatic Encephalopathy: Really a Contraindication to Elective TIPS?

PURPOSE

To evaluate the impact of pre-transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) hepatic encephalopathy (HE) on developing post-TIPS HE.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

In this retrospective, single center observational study, all patients who underwent successful TIPS placement between January 2005 and May 2020 with data pertaining to HE in their chart were included. Patient demographics and procedural details were recorded. Clinical outcomes post-TIPS, were collected and compared across patients with and without pre-TIPS HE.

RESULTS

Of 326 included patients, 159 (159/326, 48.8%) had a history of pre-TIPS HE. In total those without a history of HE were more likely to develop HE during follow up (136 (136/167, 81.4%) vs 107 (107/159, 67.3%), p = 0.001). When evaluating for predictors of developing HE within 3 months of TIPS placement, no significant variables were found on logistic regression, including prior history of HE (HR 1.16 (95% CI 0.73-1.84), p = 0.529). Univariate and multivariate regression analysis, however, showed that a history of HE was predictive of developing HE at any point in the follow-up period (p = 0.002 and p = 0.008, respectively). However, on Kaplan-Meier analysis no significant difference in the development of HE (p = 0.574) or hospital admission for HE (p = 0.554) post-TIPS was seen between patients with and without pre-TIPS HE. Additionally, there was no difference in 3-month survival (p = 0.412) or overall survival post-TIPS survival (p = 0.798).

CONCLUSION

Pre-TIPS HE did not predict the development of HE within 3 months of TIPS. Outcomes such as hospital admission and survivability were not different between patients with and without prior HE.

Addition of Kidney Dysfunction Type to MELD-Na for the Prediction of Survival in Cirrhotic Patients Awaiting Liver Transplantation in Comparison with MELD 3.0 with Albumin

It is well known that renal dysfunction has a devastating effect on the prognosis of liver cirrhosis. In this study, the aim was to assess whether the incorporation of the kidney dysfunction type into the MELD-Na score enhances its predictive capacity for outcomes in patients awaiting liver transplantation (LT), compared to utilizing the MELD 3.0 score with albumin. In total, 2080 patients awaiting the LT were enrolled at two tertiary care institutions in Korea. Discrimination abilities were analyzed by using Harrell's c-index and iAUC values between MELD-Na-kidney dysfunction type (MELD-Na-KT) and MELD 3.0 with albumin. Clinical endpoints encompassed 3-month survival, 3-month transplant-free survival (TFS), overall survival (OS), and total TFS. Out of the total of 2080 individuals, 669 (32.16%) were male. Regarding the types of renal function impairment, 1614 (77.6%) were in the normal group, 112 (5.38%) in the AKD group, 320 (15.35%) in the CKD group, and 34 (1.63%) were in the AKD on CKD group. MELD 3.0 with albumin showed better discrimination (c-index = 0.714) compared to MELD-Na-KT (c-index = 0.708) in predicting 3-month survival. Similar results were observed for OS, 3-month TFS, and total TFS as well. When divided by sex, MELD 3.0 with albumin showed the comparable prediction of 3-month survival to MELD-Na-KT (c-index 0.675 vs. 0.671, p-value 0.221) in males. However, in the female group, MELD 3.0 with albumin demonstrated better results compared to MELD-Na-KT (c-index 0.733 vs. 0.723, p-value 0.001). The integration of kidney dysfunction types into the MELD-Na did not yield superior prognostic results compared to the MELD 3.0 score with albumin. Rather, in the female group, the MELD 3.0 score with albumin was better able to predict survival. These findings suggest that laboratory values pertaining to liver dysfunction or creatinine levels may be more significant than the type of kidney dysfunction when predicting the short-term prognosis of LT candidates.

Arterial blood pressure waveform in liver transplant surgery possesses variability of morphology reflecting recipients' acuity and predicting short term outcomes

We investigated clinical information underneath the beat-to-beat fluctuation of the arterial blood pressure (ABP) waveform morphology. We proposed the Dynamical Diffusion Map algorithm (DDMap) to quantify the variability of morphology.  The underlying physiology could be the compensatory mechanisms involving complex interactions between various physiological mechanisms to regulate the cardiovascular system. As a liver transplant surgery contains distinct periods, we investigated its clinical behavior in different surgical steps. Our study used DDmap algorithm, based on unsupervised manifold learning, to obtain a quantitative index for the beat-to-beat variability of morphology. We examined the correlation between the variability of ABP morphology and disease acuity as indicated by Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores, the postoperative laboratory data, and 4 early allograft failure (EAF) scores. Among the 85 enrolled patients, the variability of morphology obtained during the presurgical phase was best correlated with MELD-Na scores. The neohepatic phase variability of morphology was associated with EAF scores as well as postoperative bilirubin levels, international normalized ratio, aspartate aminotransferase levels, and platelet count. Furthermore, variability of morphology presents more associations with the above clinical conditions than the common BP measures and their BP variability indices. The variability of morphology obtained during the presurgical phase is indicative of patient acuity, whereas those during the neohepatic phase are indicative of short-term surgical outcomes.

The Model for End-stage Liver Disease 3.0 is not superior to the Model for End-stage Liver Disease-Na in predicting survival: A retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

The Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) 3.0 yields high prognostic performance for patients with end-stage liver disease (ESLD). However, its prognostic performance for patients with alcohol-related liver disease (ARLD) has limited results. The aim of this study was to perform such an evaluation among Chinese patients.

METHODS

Patients hospitalized with ARLD in one institution between 2015 and 2018 were retrospectively included and followed up for 12 months. The original MELD, MELD-Na, MELD 3.0, and modified Maddrey discriminant function (MDF) scores were calculated for each patient at baseline. Their prognostic performances for 1-year survival were assessed. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves were constructed, and AUCs were calculated for each scoring system.

RESULTS

Among the 576 patients included in our analysis, 209 patients had alcoholic hepatitis (AH). By the 1-year follow-up, 14.8% (84/567) of all the patients and 23.4% (49/209) of those with AH had died. Overall, patients who had died had higher MELD, MELD-Na, MELD 3.0, and MDF scores (all p < 0.001) than those who had not. The same was true in the AH subgroup (MELD: p < 0.001, MELD-Na: p < 0.001, MELD 3.0: p = 0.007, MDF: p = 0.017). The AUC of the MELD 3.0 for prediction of 1-year survival among patients with ARLD was 0.682, lower than that of the original MELD (0.728, p < 0.001) and MELD-Na (0.735, p < 0.001). Moreover, in the AH subgroup, the AUC for the prediction of 1-year survival was lower than that in the MELD-Na subgroup (0.634 vs. 0.708, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The MELD 3.0 was not superior to the original MELD or the MELD-Na in predicting the mortality of patients with ARLD.

A Validated Composite Score Demonstrates Potential Superiority to MELD-Based Systems in Predicting Short-Term Survival in Patients with Liver Cirrhosis and Spontaneous Bacterial Peritonitis-A Preliminary Study

BACKGROUND

Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) is a severe complication in cirrhosis patients with ascites, leading to high mortality rates if not promptly treated. However, specific prediction models for SBP are lacking.

AIMS

This study aimed to compare commonly used cirrhotic prediction models (CTP score, MELD, MELD-Na, iMELD, and MELD 3.0) for short-term mortality prediction and develop a novel model to improve mortality prediction.

METHODS

Patients with the first episode of SBP were included. Prognostic values for mortality were assessed using AUROC analysis. A novel prediction model was developed and validated.

RESULTS

In total, 327 SBP patients were analyzed, with HBV infection as the main etiologies. MELD 3.0 demonstrated the highest AUROC among the traditional models. The novel model, incorporating HRS, exhibited superior predictive accuracy for in-hospital in all patients and 3-month mortality in HBV-cirrhosis, with AUROC values of 0.827 and 0.813 respectively, surpassing 0.8.

CONCLUSIONS

MELD 3.0 score outperformed the CTP score and showed a non-significant improvement compared to other MELD-based scores, while the novel SBP model demonstrated impressive accuracy. Internal validation and an HBV-related cirrhosis subgroup sensitivity analysis supported these findings, highlighting the need for a specific prognostic model for SBP and the importance of preventing HRS development to improve SBP prognosis.

The value of intraoperative dynamic liver function test ICG in predicting postoperative complications in patients undergoing staged hepatectomy: a pilot study

PURPOSE

To assess the predictive value of intraoperative indocyanine green (ICG) test in patients undergoing staged hepatectomy.

METHODS

We analyzed intraoperative ICG measurements of future liver remnant (FLR), preoperative ICG, volumetry, and hepatobiliary scintigraphy in 15 patients undergoing associated liver partition and portal vein ligation for staged hepatectomy (ALPPS). Main endpoints were the correlation of intraoperative ICG values to postoperative complications (Comprehensive Complication Index (CCI®)) at discharge and 90 days after surgery, and to postoperative liver function.

RESULTS

Median intraoperative R15 (ICG retention rate at 15 min) correlated significantly with CCI® at discharge (p = 0.05) and with CCI® at 90 days (p = 0.0036). Preoperative ICG, volumetry, and scintigraphy did not correlate to postoperative outcome. ROC curve analysis revealed a cutoff value of 11.4 for the intraoperative R15 to predict major complications (Clavien-Dindo ≥ III) with 100% sensitivity and 63% specificity. No patient with R15 ≤ 11 developed major complications.

CONCLUSION

This pilot study suggests that intraoperative ICG clearance determines the functional capacity of the future liver remnant more accurately than preoperative tests. This may further reduce the number of postoperative liver failures, even if it means intraoperative abortion of hepatectomy in individual cases.

Perioperative clinical practice in liver transplantation: a cross-sectional survey

PURPOSE

The objective of this study was to describe some components of the perioperative practice in liver transplantation as reported by clinicians.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional clinical practice survey using an online instrument containing questions on selected themes related to the perioperative care of liver transplant recipients. We sent email invitations to Canadian anesthesiologists, Canadian surgeons, and French anesthesiologists specialized in liver transplantation. We used five-point Likert-type scales (from "never" to "always") and numerical or categorical answers. Results are presented as medians or proportions.

RESULTS

We obtained answers from 130 participants (estimated response rate of 71% in Canada and 26% in France). Respondents reported rarely using transesophageal echocardiography routinely but often using it for hemodynamic instability, often using an intraoperative goal-directed hemodynamic management strategy, and never using a phlebotomy (medians from ordinal scales). Fifty-nine percent of respondents reported using a restrictive fluid management strategy to manage hemodynamic instability during the dissection phase. Forty-two percent and 15% of respondents reported using viscoelastic tests to guide intraoperative and postoperative transfusions, respectively. Fifty-four percent of respondents reported not pre-emptively treating preoperative coagulations disturbances, and 91% reported treating them intraoperatively only when bleeding was significant. Most respondents (48-64%) did not have an opinion on the maximal graft ischemic times. Forty-seven percent of respondents reported that a piggyback technique was the preferred vena cava anastomosis approach.

CONCLUSION

Different interventions were reported to be used regarding most components of perioperative care in liver transplantation. Our results suggest that significant equipoise exists on the optimal perioperative management of this population.

MELD-GRAIL-Na Is a Better Predictor of Mortality Than MELD in Korean Patients with Cirrhosis

Background and Objectives: The Child–Pugh (CP) score and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) are classical systems for predicting mortality in patients with liver cirrhosis (LC). The MELD-GFR assessment in liver disease–sodium (MELD-GRAIL-Na) was designed to better reflect renal function and, therefore, provide better mortality predictions. This study aimed to compare the prediction accuracy of MELD-GRAIL-Na compared to CP and MELD in predicting short-term (1- and 3-month) mortality in Korean patients. Materials and Methods: Medical records of patients with LC admitted to the Konkuk University Hospital from 2015 to 2020 were retrospectively reviewed. Predictive values of the CP, MELD, and MELD-GRAIL-Na for 1-month and 3-month mortality were calculated using the area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) and were compared using DeLong’s test. Results: In total, 1249 patients were enrolled; 102 died within 1 month, and 146 within 3 months. AUROCs of CP, MELD, and MELD-GRAIL-Na were 0.831, 0.847, and 0.857 for 1-month mortality and 0.837, 0.827, and 0.835 for 3-month mortality, respectively, indicating no statistical significance. For patients with CP classes B and C, AUROCs of CP, MELD, and MELD-GRAIL-Na were 0.782, 0.809, and 0.825 for 1-month mortality and 0.775, 0.769, and 0.786 for 3-month mortality, respectively. There was a significant difference between CP and MELD-GRAIL-Na in predicting 1-month mortality (p = 0.0428) and between MELD and MELD-GRAIL-Na in predicting 1-month (p = 0.0493) and 3-month mortality (p = 0.0225). Conclusions: Compared to CP and MELD, MELD-GRAIL-Na was found to be a better and more useful system for evaluating short-term (1- and 3-month) mortality in Korean patients with cirrhosis, especially those with advanced cirrhosis (CP class B and C).

MELD or MELD-Na as a Predictive Model for Mortality Following Transjugular Intrahepatic Portosystemic Shunt Placement

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) was originally developed to predict survival after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS). The MELD-sodium (MELD-Na) score has replaced MELD for organ allocation for liver transplantation. However, there are limited studies to compare the MELD with MELD-Na to predict mortality after TIPS.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective chart review of patients who underwent TIPS placement between 2006 and 2016 at our institution. The primary outcome was mortality, and the secondary outcomes sought to assess which variables could provide prognostic information for mortality after TIPS placement. We performed receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis to assess the performance of MELD and MELD-Na.

RESULTS

There were 186 eligible patients in the analysis. The mean pre-TIPS MELD and MELD-Na were 13 and 15, respectively. Overall, mortality after TIPS was 15% at 30 days and 16.7% at 90 days. In a comparison of the areas under the ROCs for MELD and MELD-Na, MELD was superior to MELD-Na for 30-day (0.762 vs. 0.709) and 90-day (0.780 vs. 0.730) mortality after TIPS. The optimal cutoff score for 30-day mortality was 15 (0.676-0.848) for MELD and 17 (0.610-0.808) for MELD-Na, whereas the optimal cutoff score for 90-day mortality was 16 (95% CI: 0.705-0.855) for MELD and 17 (95% CI: 0.643-0.817) for MELD-Na. There were 24 patients with high MELD-Na ≥17, but with low MELD <15, and 90-day mortality in this group was 8.3%.

CONCLUSIONS

Although MELD-Na is a superior prognostic tool to MELD for predicting overall mortality in cirrhotic patients, MELD tended to outperform MELD-Na to predict mortality after TIPS.

Mortality scoring systems for liver transplant recipients: before and after model for end-stage liver disease score

The mortality scoring systems for patients with end-stage liver disease have evolved from the Child-Turcotte-Pugh score to the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, affecting the wait list for liver allocation. There are inherent weaknesses in the MELD score, with the gradual decline in its accuracy owing to changes in patient demographics or treatment options. Continuous refinement of the MELD score is in progress; however, both advantages and disadvantages exist. Recently, attempts have been made to introduce artificial intelligence into mortality prediction; however, many challenges must still be overcome. More research is needed to improve the accuracy of mortality prediction in liver transplant recipients.

MELD 3.0 Score for Predicting Survival in Patients with Cirrhosis After Transjugular Intrahepatic Portosystemic Shunt Creation

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The selection of appropriate candidates for transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) is important and challenging. To validate the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) 3.0 in predicting mortality in patients with cirrhosis after TIPS creation.

METHODS

A total of 855 consecutive patients with cirrhosis from December 2011 to October 2019 who underwent TIPS placement were retrospectively reviewed. The prognostic value of the MELD 3.0, MELD, MELD-Na, Child-Pugh and FIPS score was assessed using Harrell's C concordance index (c-index). The Hosmer-Lemeshow test was used to test the goodness of fit of all models and the calibration plot was drawn.

RESULTS

The c-index of the MELD 3.0 in predicting 3-month mortality was 0.727 (0.645-0.808), which were significantly superior to the MELD (0.663 [0.565-0.761]; P = 0.015), MELD-Na (0.672 [0.577-0.768]; P = 0.008) and FIPS (0.582 [0.477-0.687]; P = 0.015). The Child-Pugh score reached c-indices of 0.754 (0.673-0.835), 0.720 (0.649-0.792), 0.705 (0.643-0.766) and 0.665 (0.614-0.716) for 3-month, 6-month, 1-year, and 2-year mortality, respectively, which seems comparable to MELD 3.0. A MELD 3.0 of 14 could be used as a cut-off point for discriminating between high- and low-risk patients. The MELD 3.0 could stratify patients with Child-Pugh grade B (log-rank P < 0.001). The Child-Pugh score could stratify patients defined as low risk by MELD 3.0 (log-rank P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The MELD 3.0 was significantly superior to the MELD, MELD-Na and FIPS scores in predicting mortality in patients with cirrhosis after TIPS creation.

Improvement of sarcopenia is beneficial for prognosis in cirrhotic patients after TIPS placement

BACKGROUND

The relationship between the improvement of sarcopenia and post-TIPS prognosis has not been fully investigated.

AIMS

To assess what level of sarcopenia improvement is required for potential benefits to post-TIPS prognosis.

METHODS

In this retrospective study, 109 cirrhotic patients with sarcopenia who underwent TIPS between February 2016 and January 2021 were included. The change in skeletal muscle index (SMI) at 6 months post-TIPS was assessed and the correlations of SMI improvement with clinical outcomes were analyzed.

RESULTS

During follow up, 59 (65.6%) patients reversed from sarcopenic to non-sarcopenic, and the cumulative mortality (8.5 % vs. 26.0%, log rank P = 0.013) and incidence of overt hepatic encephalopathy (OHE) (18.6% vs. 44.0%, log rank P = 0.004) in patients who reversed were significantly lower than who did not. SMI improvement rate was identified as an independent risk factor for mortality and OHE. In addition, the cumulative survival rate of patients with sarcopenia reversal or SMI improvement rate > 10.4% was significantly higher than that of patients with an SMI improvement rate ≤ 10.4% (92.5% vs. 58.6%, log rank P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Reversal of sarcopenia or significant SMI improvement by TIPS could reduce the risk of death and OHE.

Mortality Prediction Model before Surgery for Acute Mesenteric Infarction: A Population-Based Study

Surgery for acute mesenteric infarction (AMI) is associated with high mortality. This study aimed to generate a mortality prediction model to predict the 30-day mortality of surgery for AMI. We included patients ≥18 years who received bowel resection in treating AMI and randomly divided into the derivation and validation groups. After multivariable analysis, the ‘Surgery for acute mesenteric infarction mortality score’ (SAMIMS) system was generated and was including age >62-year-old (3 points), hemodialysis (2 points), congestive heart failure (1 point), peptic ulcer disease (1 point), diabetes (1 point), cerebrovascular disease (1 point), and severe liver disease (4 points). The 30-day-mortality rates in the derivation group were 4.4%, 13.4%, 24.5%, and 32.5% among very low (0 point), low (1−3 point(s)), intermediate (4−6 points), and high (7−13 points)-risk patients. Compared to the very-low-risk group, the low-risk (OR = 3.332), intermediate-risk (OR = 7.004), and high-risk groups (OR = 10.410, p < 0.001) exhibited higher odds of 30-day mortality. We identified similar results in the validation group. The areas under the ROC curve were 0.677 and 0.696 in the derivation and validation groups. Our prediction model, SAMIMS, allowed for the stratification of the patients’ 30-day-mortality risk of surgery for acute mesenteric infarction.

Validating the prognostic value of Freiburg index of posttransjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt survival score and classic scores in Chinese patients with implantation of transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

It is important and challenging to evaluate the survival of cirrhotic patients undergoing transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS). We aimed to validate the Freiburg index of post-TIPS survival (FIPS) score and classic scores for predicting mortality in Chinese patients after TIPS creation.

METHODS

A total of 709 consecutive patients with cirrhosis from December 2011 to July 2018 who underwent TIPS placement were retrospectively reviewed. The prognostic value of the FIPS score, the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, Child-Pugh score and Chronic Liver Failure Consortium Acute Decompensation score was validated with the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and DeLong et al. test.

RESULTS

The MELD-Na score was superior to the FIPS score in predicting 1-month mortality [AUROC, 0.727 (0.692-0.759) vs. 0.588 (0.551-0.625); P = 0.048]. The MELD and MELD-Na scores were significant superior to the FIPS score in predicting 3-month mortality [AUROC, 0.730 (0.696-0.762) vs. 0.598 (0.561-0.634); P = 0.044 and 0.740 (0.706-0.772) vs. 0.598 (0.561-0.634); P = 0.028]. Subgroup analyses revealed that Child-Pugh score was better than FIPS score in predicting 3-month mortality [AUROC, 0.797 (0.745-0.843) vs. 0.578 (0.517-0.637); P = 0.049] in nonviral cirrhosis group.

CONCLUSION

Classic scores still had good risk stratification and predictive ability of post-TIPS mortality. The FIPS score was not superior to the classic scores in the current Chinese cohort. The MELD and MELD-Na scores were significantly superior to the FIPS score in predicting 3-month mortality.

"Beyond MELD" - Emerging strategies and technologies for improving mortality prediction, organ allocation and outcomes in liver transplantation

In this review article, we discuss the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score and its dual purpose in general and transplant hepatology. As the landscape of liver disease and transplantation has evolved considerably since the advent of the MELD score, we summarise emerging concepts, methodologies, and technologies that may improve mortality prognostication in the future. Finally, we explore how these novel concepts and technologies may be incorporated into clinical practice.

Are MELD and MELDNa Still Reliable Tools to Predict Mortality on the Liver Transplant Waiting List?

Liver transplantation is the only curative treatment for end-stage liver disease. Unfortunately, the scarcity of donor organs and the increasing pool of potential recipients limit access to this life-saving procedure. Allocation should account for medical and ethical factors, ensuring equal access to transplantation regardless of recipient's gender, race, religion, or income. Based on their short-term prognosis prediction, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and MELD sodium (MELDNa) have been widely used to prioritize patients on the waiting list for liver transplantation resulting in a significant decrease in waiting list mortality/removal. Recent concern has been raised regarding the prognostic accuracy of MELD and MELDNa due, in part, to changes in recipients' profile such as body mass index, comorbidities, and general condition, including nutritional status and cause of liver disease, among others. This review aims to provide a comprehensive view of the current state of MELD and MELDNa advantages and limitations and promising alternatives. Finally, it will explore future options to increase the donor pool and improve donor-recipient matching.

The MELD Score Is Superior to the Maddrey Discriminant Function Score to Predict Short-Term Mortality in Alcohol-Associated Hepatitis: A Global Study

INTRODUCTION

Several scoring systems predict mortality in alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH), including the Maddrey discriminant function (mDF) and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score developed in the United States, Glasgow alcoholic hepatitis score in the United Kingdom, and age, bilirubin, international normalized ratio, and creatinine score in Spain. To date, no global studies have examined the utility of these scores, nor has the MELD-sodium been evaluated for outcome prediction in AH. In this study, we assessed the accuracy of different scores to predict short-term mortality in AH and investigated additional factors to improve mortality prediction.

METHODS

Patients admitted to hospital with a definite or probable AH were recruited by 85 tertiary centers in 11 countries and across 3 continents. Baseline demographic and laboratory variables were obtained. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality at 28 and 90 days.

RESULTS

In total, 3,101 patients were eligible for inclusion. After exclusions (n = 520), 2,581 patients were enrolled (74.4% male, median age 48 years, interquartile range 40.9-55.0 years). The median MELD score was 23.5 (interquartile range 20.5-27.8). Mortality at 28 and 90 days was 20% and 30.9%, respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for 28-day mortality ranged from 0.776 for MELD-sodium to 0.701 for mDF, and for 90-day mortality, it ranged from 0.773 for MELD to 0.709 for mDF. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for mDF to predict death was significantly lower than all other scores. Age added to MELD obtained only a small improvement of AUC.

DISCUSSION

These results suggest that the mDF score should no longer be used to assess AH's prognosis. The MELD score has the best performance in predicting short-term mortality.

Best Practices in Large Database Clinical Epidemiology Research in Hepatology: Barriers and Opportunities

With advances in computing and information technology, large health care research databases are becoming increasingly accessible to investigators across the world. These rich, population-level data sources can serve many purposes, such as to generate "real-world evidence," to enhance disease phenotyping, or to identify unmet clinical needs, among others. This is of particular relevance to the study of patients with end-stage liver disease (ESLD), a socioeconomically and clinically heterogeneous population that is frequently under-represented in clinical trials. This review describes the recommended "best practices" in the execution, reporting, and interpretation of large database clinical epidemiology research in hepatology. The advantages and limitations of selected data sources are reviewed, as well as important concepts on data linkages. The appropriate classification of exposures and outcomes is addressed, and the strategies needed to overcome limitations of the data and minimize bias are explained as they pertain to patients with ESLD and/or liver transplantation (LT) recipients. Lastly, selected statistical concepts are reviewed, from model building to analytic decision making and hypothesis testing. The purpose of this review is to provide the practical insights and knowledge needed to ensure successful and impactful research using large clinical databases in the modern era and advance the study of ESLD and LT.

MELD 3.0: The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Updated for the Modern Era

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) has been established as a reliable indicator of short-term survival in patients with end-stage liver disease. The current version (MELDNa), consisting of the international normalized ratio and serum bilirubin, creatinine, and sodium, has been used to determine organ allocation priorities for liver transplantation in the United States. The objective was to optimize MELD further by taking into account additional variables and updating coefficients with contemporary data.

METHODS

All candidates registered on the liver transplant wait list in the US national registry from January 2016 through December 2018 were included. Uni- and multivariable Cox models were developed to predict survival up to 90 days after wait list registration. Model fit was tested using the concordance statistic (C-statistic) and reclassification, and the Liver Simulated Allocation Model was used to estimate the impact of replacing MELDNa with the new model.

RESULTS

The final multivariable model was characterized by (1) additional variables of female sex and serum albumin, (2) interactions between bilirubin and sodium and between albumin and creatinine, and (3) an upper bound for creatinine at 3.0 mg/dL. The final model (MELD 3.0) had better discrimination than MELDNa (C-statistic, 0.869 vs 0.862; P < .01). Importantly, MELD 3.0 correctly reclassified a net of 8.8% of decedents to a higher MELD tier, affording them a meaningfully higher chance of transplantation, particularly in women. In the Liver Simulated Allocation Model analysis, MELD 3.0 resulted in fewer wait list deaths compared to MELDNa (7788 vs 7850; P = .02).

CONCLUSION

MELD 3.0 affords more accurate mortality prediction in general than MELDNa and addresses determinants of wait list outcomes, including the sex disparity.

Long-term survival prediction for transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt in severe cirrhotic ascites: assessment of ten prognostic models

OBJECTIVES

Patients with severe cirrhotic ascites have poor prognosis, yet individual patient survival varies greatly. Therefore, suitable prognostic models can be helpful in clinical decision making. The aim of this study was to evaluate and compare the performance of 10 scores in predicting transplant-free survival (TFS) after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) in severe cirrhotic ascites.

METHODS

Two hundred eighty consecutive cirrhotic patients with severe ascites undergoing TIPS between March 2006 and December 2017 were retrospectively screened and included from nine tertiary Chinese centers, consisting of 123 patients with refractory ascites and 157 with recurrent ascites. Discriminatory ability of these models was further assessed in the whole cohort and subgroups.

RESULTS

TFS rates of all 280 patients were 75.4, 65.7, and 53.6% at 6-month, 1-year, and 2-year follow-up, respectively. Compared with other prognostic systems, the integrated model for end-stage liver disease (iMELD, incorporating serum sodium and age) showed optimal performance in predicting 6-month, 1-year, and 2-year TFS. Cutoffs were determined according to c-index and were used to stratify patients into three strata presenting significantly different TFS for short-term and long-term: iMELD < 32, ≥32 but <38 and ≥38 (log-rank P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The iMELD score proved to be the best prognostic model in predicting TFS in patients with severe cirrhotic ascites receiving TIPS. Meanwhile, the model could stratify patients in three strata to help guiding clinical practice.

Joint modeling of liver transplant candidates outperforms the model for end-stage liver disease: The effect of disease development over time on patient outcome

Liver function is measured regularly in liver transplantation (LT) candidates. Currently, these previous disease development data are not used for survival prediction. By constructing and validating joint models (JMs), we aimed to predict the outcome based on all available data, using both disease severity and its rate of change over time. Adult LT candidates listed in Eurotransplant between 2007 and 2018 (n = 16 283) and UNOS between 2016 and 2019 (n = 30 533) were included. Patients with acute liver failure, exception points, or priority status were excluded. Longitudinal MELD(-Na) data were modeled using spline-based mixed effects. Waiting list survival was modeled with Cox proportional hazards models. The JMs combined the longitudinal and survival analysis. JM 90-day mortality prediction performance was compared to MELD(-Na) in the validation cohorts. MELD(-Na) score and its rate of change over time significantly influenced patient survival. The JMs significantly outperformed the MELD(-Na) score at baseline and during follow-up. At baseline, MELD-JM AUC and MELD AUC were 0.94 (0.92-0.95) and 0.87 (0.85-0.89), respectively. MELDNa-JM AUC was 0.91 (0.89-0.93) and MELD-Na AUC was 0.84 (0.81-0.87). The JMs were significantly (p < .001) more accurate than MELD(-Na). After 90 days, we ranked patients for LT based on their MELD-Na and MELDNa-JM survival rates, showing that MELDNa-JM-prioritized patients had three times higher waiting list mortality.

MELD is MELD is MELD? Transplant center-level variation in waitlist mortality for candidates with the same biological MELD

Recently, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD)-based liver allocation in the United States has been questioned based on concerns that waitlist mortality for a given biologic MELD (bMELD), calculated using laboratory values alone, might be higher at certain centers in certain locations across the country. Therefore, we aimed to quantify the center-level variation in bMELD-predicted mortality risk. Using Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (SRTR) data from January 2015 to December 2019, we modeled mortality risk in 33 260 adult, first-time waitlisted candidates from 120 centers using multilevel Poisson regression, adjusting for sex, and time-varying age and bMELD. We calculated a "MELD correction factor" using each center's random intercept and bMELD coefficient. A MELD correction factor of +1 means that center's candidates have a higher-than-average bMELD-predicted mortality risk equivalent to 1 bMELD point. We found that the "MELD correction factor" median (IQR) was 0.03 (-0.47, 0.52), indicating almost no center-level variation. The number of centers with "MELD correction factors" within ±0.5 points, and between ±0.5-± 1, ±1.0-±1.5, and ±1.5-±2.0 points was 62, 41, 13, and 4, respectively. No centers had waitlisted candidates with a higher-than-average bMELD-predicted mortality risk beyond ±2 bMELD points. Given that bMELD similarly predicts waitlist mortality at centers across the country, our results support continued MELD-based prioritization of waitlisted candidates irrespective of center.

Direct Bilirubin Is More Valuable than Total Bilirubin for Predicting Prognosis in Patients with Liver Cirrhosis

Background/Aims

Most prognostic prediction models for patients with liver cirrhosis include serum total bilirubin (TB) level as a component. This study investigated prognostic performance of serum direct bilirubin (DB) and developed new DB level-based prediction models for cirrhosis.

Methods

A total of 983 hospitalized patients with liver cirrhosis were included. DB-Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score was calculated using MELD score formula, with serum DB level replacing TB level.

Results

Mean age of study population was 56.1 years. Alcoholic liver disease was the most frequent underlying condition (471 patients, 47.9%). Within 6 months, 144 patients (14.6%) died or received liver transplantation due to severe liver dysfunction. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for prediction of 6-month mortality with DB level was significantly higher than that with TB level (p<0.001). The AUROC of DB-MELD score for prediction of 6-month mortality was significantly higher than that of MELD score (p<0.001). Patients were randomly divided into training (n=492) and validation (n=491) cohorts. A new prognostic prediction model, “Direct Bilirubin, INR, and Creatinine” (DiBIC) score, was developed based on the most significant predictors of 6-month mortality. In training set, AUROC of DiBIC score for prediction of 6-month mortality was 0.892, which was significantly higher than that of the MELD score (0.875, p=0.017), but not different from that of DB-MELD score (0.886, p=0.272). Similar results were observed in validation set.

Conclusions

New prognostic models, DB-MELD and DiBIC scores, have good prognostic performance in liver cirrhosis patients, outperforming other currently available models.

Refitting the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease for the Eurotransplant Region

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The United Network for Organ Sharing's Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (UNOS-MELD) score is the basis of liver allocation in the Eurotransplant region. It was constructed 20 years ago in a small US cohort and has remained unchanged ever since. The best boundaries and coefficients were never calculated for any region outside the United States. Therefore, this study refits the MELD (reMELD) for the Eurotransplant region.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

All adult patients listed for a first liver transplantation between January 1, 2007, and December 31, 2018, were included. Data were randomly split in a training set (70%) and a validation set (30%). In the training data, generalized additive models with splines were plotted for each MELD parameter. The lower and upper bound combinations with the maximum log-likelihood were chosen for the final models. The refit models were tested in the validation data with C-indices and Brier scores. Through likelihood ratio tests the refit models were compared to UNOS-MELD. The correlation between scores and survival of prioritized patients was calculated. A total of 6,684 patients were included. Based on training data, refit parameters were capped at creatinine 0.7-2.5, bilirubin 0.3-27, international normalized ratio 0.1-2.6, and sodium 120-139. ReMELD and reMELD-Na showed C-indices of 0.866 and 0.869, respectively. ReMELD-Na prioritized patients with 1.6 times higher 90-day mortality probabilities compared to UNOS-MELD.

CONCLUSIONS

Refitting MELD resulted in new lower and upper bounds for each parameter. The predictive power of reMELD-Na was significantly higher than UNOS-MELD. ReMELD prioritized patients with higher 90-day mortality rates. Thus, reMELD(-Na) should replace UNOS-MELD for liver graft allocation in the Eurotransplant region.

Admission Serum Bicarbonate Predicts Adverse Clinical Outcomes in Hospitalized Cirrhotic Patients

A low serum bicarbonate (SB) level is predictive of adverse outcomes in kidney injury, infection, and aging. Because the liver plays an important role in acid-base homeostasis and lactic acid metabolism, we speculated that such a relationship would exist for patients with cirrhosis. To assess the prognostic value of admission SB on adverse hospital outcomes, clinical characteristics were extracted and analyzed from a large electronic health record system. Patients were categorized based on admission SB (mEq/L) into 7 groups based on the reference range (22-25) into mildly (18-21), moderately (14-17), and severely (<14) decreased groups and mildly (26-29), moderately (30-33), and severely (>30) increased groups, and the relationship of SB category with the frequency of complications (acute kidney injury/hepatorenal syndrome, portosystemic encephalopathy, gastrointestinal bleeding, ascites, and spontaneous bacterial peritonitis) and hospital metrics (length of stay [LOS], admission to an intensive care unit [ICU], and mortality) was assessed. A total of 2,693 patients were analyzed. Mean SB was 22.9 ± 4.5 mEq/L. SB was within the normal range (22-25 mEq/L) in 1,072 (39.8%) patients, and 955 patients (36%) had a low SB. As the SB category decreased, the incidence of complications progressively increased (p < 0.001). Increased MELD-Na score and low serum albumin also correlated with frequency of complications (p < 0.001). As the SB category decreased, LOS, ICU admission, and mortality progressively increased (p < 0.001). On multivariate analysis, the association of decreased SB with higher odds of complications, LOS, ICU admission, and mortality persisted. Conclusion. Low admission SB in patients with cirrhosis is associated with cirrhotic complications, longer LOS, increased ICU admissions, and increased hospital mortality.

Empirical Treatment With Carbapenem vs Third-generation Cephalosporin for Treatment of Spontaneous Bacterial Peritonitis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Third-generation cephalosporins (TGCs) are recommended as first-line antibiotics for treatment of spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP). However, antibiotics against multidrug-resistant organisms (such as carbapenems) might be necessary. We aimed to evaluate whether carbapenems are superior to TGC for treatment of SBP.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective study of 865 consecutive patients with a first presentation of SBP (275 culture positive; 103 with TGC-resistant bacterial infections) treated at 7 referral centers in Korea, from September 2013 through January 2018. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. We made all comparisons using data from patients whose baseline characteristics were balanced by inverse probability of treatment weighting.

RESULTS

Of patients who initially received empirical treatment with antibiotics, 95 (11.0%) received carbapenems and 655 (75.7%) received TGCs. Among the entire study cohort, there was no significant difference in in-hospital mortality between the carbapenem (25.8%) and TGC (25.3%) groups (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.97; 95% CI, 0.85-1.11; P = .66). In the subgroup of patients with high chronic liver failure-sequential organ failure assessment (CLIF-SOFA) scores (score of 7 or greater, n = 314), carbapenem treatment was associated with lower in-hospital mortality (23.1%) than in the TGC group (38.8%) (aOR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.75-0.94; P=.002). In contrast, among patients with lower CLIF-SOFA scores (n = 436), in-hospital mortality did not differ significantly between the carbapenem group (24.7%) and the TGC group (16.0%) (aOR, 1.06; 95% CI, 0.85-1.32; P = .58).

CONCLUSIONS

For patients with a first presentation of SBP, empirical treatment with carbapenem does not reduce in-hospital mortality compared to treatment with TGCs. However, among critically ill patients (CLIF-SOFA scores ≥7), empirical carbapenem treatment was significantly associated with lower in-hospital mortality than TGCs.

Clinical impact of mild to moderate pulmonary hypertension in living-donor liver transplantation

Severe pulmonary hypertension (PHT) is a contraindication to liver transplantation (LT); however, the prognostic implication of mild to moderate PHT in living-donor LT (LDLT) is unknown. The study cohort retrospectively included 1307 patients with liver cirrhosis who underwent LDLT. PHT was defined as a mean pulmonary artery pressure (PAP) of ≥25 mmHg, measured intraoperatively just before surgery. The primary endpoint was graft failure within 1 year after LDLT, including retransplantation or death from any cause. The secondary endpoints were in-hospital adverse events. In the overall cohort, the median Model for End-stage Liver Disease-Sodium (MELD-Na) score was 19, and 100 patients (7.7%) showed PHT. During 1-year follow-up, graft failure occurred in 94 patients (7.2%). Patients with PHT had lower 1-year graft survival (86% vs. 93.4%, P = 0.005) and survival rates (87% vs. 93.6%, P = 0.011). Mean PAP was associated with a high risk of in-hospital adverse events and 1-year graft failure. Adding the mean PAP to the clinical risk model improved the risk prediction. In conclusion, mild to moderate PHT was associated with higher risks of 1-year graft failure and in-hospital events, including mortality after LDLT in patients with liver cirrhosis. Intraoperative mean PAP can help predict the early clinical outcomes after LDLT.

Prognostic Value of the CLIF-C AD Score in Patients With Implantation of Transjugular Intrahepatic Portosystemic Shunt

Prognostic assessment of patients with liver cirrhosis allocated for implantation of a transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) is a challenging task in clinical practice. The aim of our study was to assess the prognostic value of the CLIF-C AD (Acute Decompensation) score in patients with TIPS implantation. Transplant-free survival (TFS) and 3-month mortality were reviewed in 880 patients who received de novo TIPS implantation for the treatment of cirrhotic portal hypertension. The prognostic value of the CLIF-C AD score was compared with the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score, Child-Pugh score, and albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score using Harrell's C concordance index. The median TFS after TIPS implantation was 40.0 (34.6-45.4) months. The CLIF-C AD score (c = 0.635 [0.609-0.661]) was superior in the prediction of TFS in comparison to MELD score (c = 0.597 [0.570-0.623], P = 0.006), Child-Pugh score (c = 0.579 [0.552-0.606], P < 0.001), and ALBI score (c = 0.573 [0.545-0.600], P < 0.001). However, the CLIF-C AD score did not perform significantly better than the MELD-Na score (c = 0.626 [0.599-0.653], P = 0.442). There were no profound differences in the scores' ranking with respect to indication for TIPS implantation, stent type, or underlying liver disease. Subgroup analyses revealed that a CLIF-C AD score >45 was a predictor of 3-month mortality in the supposed low-risk group of patients with a MELD score ≤12 (14.7% vs. 5.1%, P < 0.001). Conclusion: The CLIF-C AD score is suitable for prognostic assessment of patients with cirrhotic portal hypertension receiving TIPS implantation. In the prediction of TFS, the CLIF-C AD score is superior to MELD score, Child-Pugh score, and ALBI score but not the MELD-Na score.

Natremia and liver transplantation: The right amount of salt for a good recipe

An adequate balance between electrolytes and clear water is of paramount importance to maintaining physiologic homeostasis. Natremia imbalance and, in particular, hyponatremia is the most frequent electrolyte abnormality observed in hospitalized subjects, involving approximately one-fourth of them. Pathological changes occurring during liver cirrhosis predispose patients to an increased risk of sodium imbalance, and hypervolemic hyponatremia has been reported in nearly 50% of subjects with severe liver disease and ascites. Splanchnic vasodilatation, portal-systemic collaterals’ opening and increased excretion of vasoactive modulators are all factors impairing clear water handling during liver cirrhosis. Of concern, sodium imbalance has been consistently reported to be associated with increased risk of complications and reduced survival in liver disease patients. In the last decades clinical interest in sodium levels has been also extended in the field of liver transplantation. Evidence that [Na⁺] in blood is an independent risk factor for in-list mortality led to the incorporation of sodium value in prognostic scores employed for transplant priority, such as model for end-stage liver disease-Na and UKELD. On the other hand, severe hyponatremic cirrhotic patients are frequently delisted by transplant centers due to the elevated risk of mortality after grafting. In this review, we describe in detail the relationship between sodium imbalance and liver cirrhosis, focusing on its impact on peritransplant phases. The possible therapeutic approaches, in order to improve transplant outcome, are also discussed. 

Update on liver transplantation-newer aspects

Liver transplantation (LT) remains the only therapeutic option offering gold standard treatment for end-stage liver disease (ESLD) and acute liver failure (ALF), as well as for certain early-stage liver tumors. Currently, the greatest challenge facing LT is the simple fact that there are not enough adequate livers for all the potential patients that could benefit from LT. Despite efforts to expand the donor pool to include living and deceased donors, organ shortage is still a major problem in many countries. To solve this problem, the use of marginal liver grafts has become an inevitable choice. Although the definition of marginal grafts or criteria for expanded donor selection has not been clarified yet, they are usually defined as grafts that may potentially cause primary nonfunction, impaired function, or late loss of function. These include steatotic livers, older donors, donors with positive viral serology, split livers, and donation after cardiac death (DCD). Therefore, to get the best outcome from these liver grafts, donor-recipient selection should be vigilant. Alcohol- related liver disease (ALD) is one of the most common indications for LT in Europe and North America. Traditionally, LT for alcoholic liver disease was kept limited for patients who have achieved 6 months of abstinence, in part due to social and ethical concerns regarding the use of a limited resource. However, the majority of patients with severe alcoholic hepatitis who fail medical therapy will not live long enough to meet this requirement. Besides, the initial results of early liver transplantation (ELT) without waiting for 6 months of abstinence period are satisfactory in severe alcoholic hepatitis (SAH). It will be important to take care of these patients from a newer perspective.

LIV-4: A novel model for predicting transplant-free survival in critically ill cirrhotics

BACKGROUND

Critically ill patients with cirrhosis, particularly those with acute decompensation, have higher mortality rates in the intensive care unit (ICU) than patients without chronic liver disease. Prognostication of short-term mortality is important in order to identify patients at highest risk of death. None of the currently available prognostic models have been widely accepted for use in cirrhotic patients in the ICU, perhaps due to complexity of calculation, or lack of universal variables readily available for these patients. We believe a survival model meeting these requirements can be developed, to guide therapeutic decision-making and contribute to cost-effective healthcare resource utilization.

AIM

To identify markers that best identify likelihood of survival and to determine the performance of existing survival models.

METHODS

Consecutive cirrhotic patients admitted to a United States quaternary care center ICU between 2008-2014 were included and comprised the training cohort. Demographic data and clinical laboratory test collected on admission to ICU were analyzed. Area under the curve receiver operator characteristics (AUROC) analysis was performed to assess the value of various scores in predicting in-hospital mortality. A new predictive model, the LIV-4 score, was developed using logistic regression analysis and validated in a cohort of patients admitted to the same institution between 2015-2017.

RESULTS

Of 436 patients, 119 (27.3%) died in the hospital. In multivariate analysis, a combination of the natural logarithm of the bilirubin, prothrombin time, white blood cell count, and mean arterial pressure was found to most accurately predict in-hospital mortality. Derived from the regression coefficients of the independent variables, a novel model to predict inpatient mortality was developed (the LIV-4 score) and performed with an AUROC of 0.86, compared to the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease, Chronic Liver Failure-Sequential Organ Failure Assessment, and Royal Free Hospital Score, which performed with AUROCs of 0.81, 0.80, and 0.77, respectively. Patients in the internal validation cohort were substantially sicker, as evidenced by higher Model for End-Stage Liver Disease, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Sodium, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation III, SOFA and LIV-4 scores. Despite these differences, the LIV-4 score remained significantly higher in subjects who expired during the hospital stay and exhibited good prognostic values in the validation cohort with an AUROC of 0.80.

CONCLUSION

LIV-4, a validated model for predicting mortality in cirrhotic patients on admission to the ICU, performs better than alternative liver and ICU-specific survival scores.

MELD-GRAIL-Na: Glomerular Filtration Rate and Mortality on Liver-Transplant Waiting List

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Among patients with cirrhosis awaiting liver transplantation, prediction of wait-list (WL) mortality is adjudicated by the Model for End Stage Liver Disease-Sodium (MELD-Na) score. Replacing serum creatinine (SCr) with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) in the MELD-Na score may improve prediction of WL mortality, especially for women and highest disease severity.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

We developed (2014) and validated (2015) a model incorporating eGFR using national data (n = 17,095) to predict WL mortality. Glomerular filtration rate (GFR) was estimated using the GFR assessment in liver disease (GRAIL) developed among patients with cirrhosis. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard analysis models were used to compare the predicted 90-day WL mortality between MELD-GRAIL-Na (re-estimated bilirubin, international normalized ratio [INR], sodium, and GRAIL) versus MELD-Na. Within 3 months, 27.8% were transplanted, 4.3% died on the WL, and 4.7% were delisted for other reasons. GFR as estimated by GRAIL (hazard ratio [HR] 0.382, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.344-0.424) and the re-estimated model MELD-GRAIL-Na (HR 1.212, 95% CI 1.199-1.224) were significant predictors of mortality or being delisted on the WL within 3 months. MELD-GRAIL-Na was a better predictor of observed mortality at highest deciles of disease severity (≥ 27-40). For a score of 32 or higher (observed mortality 0.68), predicted mortality was 0.67 (MELD-GRAIL-Na) and 0.51 (MELD-Na). For women, a score of 32 or higher (observed mortality 0.67), the predicted mortality was 0.69 (MELD-GRAIL-Na) and 0.55 (MELD-Na). In 2015, use of MELD-GRAIL-Na as compared with MELD-Na resulted in reclassification of 16.7% (n = 672) of patients on the WL.

CONCLUSION

Incorporation of eGFR likely captures true GFR better than SCr, especially among women. Incorporation of MELD-GRAIL-Na instead of MELD-Na may affect outcomes for 12%-17% awaiting transplant and affect organ allocation.

Iron homeostasis is dysregulated, but the iron-hepcidin axis is functional, in chronic liver disease

BACKGROUND

Perturbations in iron homeostasis have been reported to be associated with irreversible liver injury in chronic liver disease (CLD). However, it is not clear whether liver dysfunction per se underlies such dysregulation or whether other factors also contribute to it. This study attempted to examine the issues involved.

METHODS

Patients diagnosed to have chronic liver disease (n = 63), who underwent a medically-indicated upper gastrointestinal endoscopy, were the subjects of this study. Patients with dyspepsia, who underwent such a procedure, and were found to have no endoscopic abnormalities, were used as control subjects (n = 49). Duodenal mucosal samples were obtained to study mRNA and protein levels of duodenal proteins involved in iron absorption. A blood sample was also obtained for estimation of hematological, iron-related, inflammatory and liver function-related parameters.

RESULTS

Patients with CLD had impaired liver function, anemia of inflammation and lower serum levels of hepcidin than control subjects. Gene (mRNA) expression levels of duodenal ferroportin and duodenal cytochrome b (proteins involved in iron absorption) were decreased, while that of divalent metal transporter-1 (DMT-1) was unchanged. Protein expression of DMT-1 was, however, decreased while that of ferroportin was unchanged. In the CLD group, serum hepcidin was predicted independently by serum ferritin and hemoglobin, but not by C-reactive protein (a marker of inflammation). CLD patients with serum ferritin greater than 300 μg/dL had significantly greater liver dysfunction (as indicated by significantly higher serum concentrations of bilirubin, AST and ALT, and MELD scores), higher serum concentrations of CRP and hepcidin, and higher ferroportin protein expression, than those with serum ferritin ≤ 300 μg/dL.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with CLD, anemia of inflammation and low serum hepcidin levels were found to paradoxically co-exist. Expression of duodenal proteins involved in iron absorption were either decreased or unaltered in these patients. The hepcidin response to higher body iron levels and/or inflammation appeared to be functional in these patients, despite the presence of liver disease.

Basic principles of liver allocation and development over the years

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Prior to the enactment of the National Organ Transplant Act in 1984, there was no organized system to allocate donor organs in the United States. The process of liver allocation has come a long way since then, including the development and implementation of the Model for End-stage Liver Disease, which is an objective estimate of risk of mortality among candidates awaiting liver transplantation.

RECENT FINDINGS

The Liver Transplant Community is constantly working to optimize the distribution and allocation of scare organs, which is essential to promote equitable access to a life-saving procedure in the setting of clinical advances in the treatment of liver disease. Over the past 17 years, many changes have been made. Most recently, liver distribution changed such that deceased donor livers will be distributed based on units established by geographic circles around a donor hospital rather than the current policy, which uses donor service areas as the unit of distribution. In addition, a National Liver Review Board was created to standardize the process of determining liver transplant priority for candidates with exceptional medical conditions. The aim of these changes is to allocate and distribute organs in an efficient and equitable fashion.

SUMMARY

The current review provides a historical perspective of liver allocation and the changing landscape in the United States.

Integrated model for end-stage liver disease maybe superior to some other model for end-stage liver disease-based systems in addition to Child-Turcotte-Pugh and albumin-bilirubin scores in patients with hepatitis B virus-related liver cirrhosis and spontaneous bacterial peritonitis

OBJECTIVES

For mortality prediction of spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) in patients with cirrhosis, no direct comparisons have been made among the eight models, Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), MELD-Na, integrated MELD (iMELD) score, MELD to sodium (MESO) index, modification of the MELD scoring system (Refit MELD), Refit MELD-Na and Albumin-Bilirubin (ALBI) score.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Between January 2005 and July 2017, 314 patients who met the criteria for liver cirrhosis with the first episode of SBP were enrolled in this retrospective study. Clinical and laboratory data were obtained at diagnosis. Patients were followed up until February 2018 or death.

RESULTS

Patients were predominantly middle-aged male. Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection accounted for the majority of the etiologies (41.7%) with 33.6% of the patients received antivirals. The in-hospital mortality rate was 39.8%. The cumulative 3-month and 6-month mortality rates were 51.6 and 60.2%, respectively. For patients with HBV related, not hepatitis C virus or alcohol related, liver cirrhosis, iMELD had the highest area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and was significantly superior to MELD, MESO, and Refit MELD in addition to CTP and ALBI scores in predicting 3-month and 6-month mortality.

CONCLUSION

For patients with HBV-related liver cirrhosis and SBP, iMELD had the highest AUC among these eight models and was significantly superior to MELD, MESO, and Refit MELD in addition to CTP and ALBI scores in predicting 3-month and 6-month mortalities.

Risk factors and outcomes of acute respiratory distress syndrome in critically ill patients with cirrhosis

AIM

Prior randomized controlled trials of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) excluded critically ill patients with cirrhosis. Data regarding risk factors for ARDS development and outcomes from ARDS in patients with cirrhosis are scarce. We sought to characterize outcomes from ARDS in patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

An observational cohort of patients with cirrhosis admitted to an intensive care unit at a high-volume liver transplant center between 1 January 2012 and 31 December 2014 were reviewed. ARDS cases were identified according to the Berlin definition. Potential risk factors were examined in multivariable logistic regression analysis for ARDS development. Outcomes including in-hospital mortality were compared between ARDS and non-ARDS patients.

RESULTS

A total of 559 patients met the inclusion criteria and 45 (8.1%) developed ARDS. Differences between ARDS and non-ARDS patients included sepsis, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease - Sodium score, and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score. In-hospital mortality was higher in cirrhotic patients with ARDS compared with those without ARDS (82.2% vs. 27.6%, P < 0.001). In multivariable analysis, acute-on-chronic liver failure (OR 8.69, 95% CI 2.28-33.18, P < 0.01) and shock on intensive care unit admission (OR 3.13, 95% CI 1.57-6.24, P = 0.001) were associated with ARDS development, whereas etiology of cirrhosis or alcohol use were not.

CONCLUSIONS

Acute-on-chronic liver failure and shock on intensive care unit admission were risk factors for ARDS development, whereas etiology of cirrhosis and alcohol were not. Mortality from ARDS was markedly increased in patients with cirrhosis. Early recognition and treatment for infection might be important for improving the high mortality in this group of patients.

A Model for Glomerular Filtration Rate Assessment in Liver Disease (GRAIL) in the Presence of Renal Dysfunction

Estimation of glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) in patients with liver disease is suboptimal in the presence of renal dysfunction. We developed a model for GFR assessment in liver disease (GRAIL) before and after liver transplantation (LT). GRAIL was derived using objective variables (creatinine, blood urea nitrogen, age, gender, race, and albumin) to estimate GFR based on timing of measurement relative to LT and degree of renal dysfunction (www.bswh.md/grail). The measured GFR (mGFR) by iothalamate clearance (n = 12,122, 1985-2015) at protocol time points before/after LT was used as reference. GRAIL was compared with the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) and Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD-4, MDRD-6) equations for mGFR < 30 mL/min/1.73 m² . Prediction of development of chronic kidney disease (mGFR < 20 mL/min/1.73 m² , initiation of chronic dialysis) and listing or receipt of kidney transplantation within 5 years was examined in internal cohort (n = 785) and external validation (n = 68,217, 2001-2015). GRAIL had less bias and was more accurate and precise as compared with CKD-EPI, MDRD-4, and MDRD-6 at time points before/after LT for low GFR. For mGFR < 30 mL/min/1.73 m² , the median difference (eGFR-mGFR) was GRAIL: 5.24 (9.65) mL/min/1.73 m² as compared with CKD-EPI: 8.70 (18.24) mL/min/1.73 m² , MDRD-4: 8.82 (17.38) mL/min/1.73 m² , and MDRD-6: 6.53 (14.42) mL/min/1.73 m² . Before LT, GRAIL correctly classified 75% as having mGFR < 30 mL/min/1.73 m² versus 36.1% (CKD-EPI), 36.1% (MDRD-4), and 52.8% (MDRD-6) (P < 0.01). An eGFR < 30 mL/min/1.73 m² by GRAIL predicted development of CKD (26.9% versus 4.6% CKD-EPI, 5.9% MDRD-4, and 10.5% MDRD-6) in center data and needing kidney after LT (48.3% versus 22.0% CKD-EPI versus 23.1% MDRD-4 versus 48.3% MDRD-6, P < 0.01) in national data within 5 years after LT. Conclusion: GRAIL may serve as an alternative model to estimate GFR among patients with liver disease before and after LT at low GFR.

Treatment of AECHB and Severe Hepatitis (Liver Failure)

This chapter describes the general treatment and immune principles and internal management for AECHB and HBV ACLF, including ICU monitoring, general supportive medications/nutrition/nursing, immune therapy, artificial liver supportive systems, hepatocyte/stem cell, and liver transplant, management for special populations, frequently clinical complications and the utilization of Chinese traditional medicines.

Early clinical indicators of severe hepatitis B include acratia, gastrointestinal symptoms, a daily increase in serum bilirubin >1 mg/dL, toxic intestinal paralysis, bleeding tendency and mild mind anomaly or character change, and the presence of other diseases inducing severe hepatitis. Laboratory indicators include T-Bil, PTA, cholinesterase, pre-albumin and albumin. The roles of immune indicators (such as IL-6, TNF-α, and fgl2), gene polymorphisms, HBV genotypes, and gene mutations as early clinical indicators.

Intensive Care Unit monitor patients with severe hepatitis include intracranial pressure, infection, blood dynamics, respiratory function, renal function, blood coagulation function, nutritional status and blood purification process. Nursing care should not only include routine care, but psychological and special care (complications).

Nutrition support and nursing care should be maintained throughout treatment for severe hepatitis. Common methods of evaluating nutritional status include direct human body measurement, creatinine height index (CHI) and subject global assessment of nutrition (SGA). Malnourished patients should receive enteral or parenteral nutrition support.

Immune therapies for severe hepatitis include promoting hepatocyte regeneration (e.g. with glucagon, hepatocyte growth factor and prostaglandin E1), glucocorticoid suppressive therapy, and targeting molecular blocking. Corticosteroid treatment should be early and sufficient, and adverse drug reactions monitored. Treatments currently being investigated are those targeting Toll-like receptors, NK cell/NK cell receptors, macrophage/immune coagulation system, CTLA-4/PD-1 and stem cell transplantation.

In addition to conventional drugs and radioiodine, corticosteroids and artificial liver treatment can also be considered for severe hepatitis patients with hyperthyreosis. Patients with gestational severe hepatitis require preventive therapy for fetal growth restriction, and it is necessary to choose the timing and method of fetal delivery. For patients with both diabetes and severe hepatitis, insulin is preferred to oral antidiabetic agents to control blood glucose concentration. Liver toxicity of corticosteroids and immune suppressors should be monitored during treatment for severe hepatitis in patients with connective tissue diseases including SLE, RA and sicca syndrome. Patient with connective tissue diseases should preferably be started after the antiviral treatment with nucleos(t)ide analogues.

An artificial liver can improve patients’ liver function; remove endotoxins, blood ammonia and other toxins; correct amino acid metabolism and coagulation disorders; and reverse internal environment imbalances. Non-bioartificial livers are suitable for patients with early and middle stage severe hepatitis; for late-stage patients waiting for liver transplantation; and for transplanted patients with rejection reaction or transplant failure. The type of artificial liver should be determined by each patient’s condition and previous treatment purpose, and patients should be closely monitored for adverse reactions and complications. Bio- and hybrid artificial livers are still under development.

MELD score is the international standard for choosing liver transplantation. Surgical methods mainly include the in situ classic type and the piggyback type; transplantation includes no liver prophase, no liver phase or new liver phase. Preoperative preparation, management of intraoperative and postoperative complications and postoperative long-term treatment are keys to success.

Severe hepatitis belongs to the categories of “acute jaundice”, “scourge jaundice”, and “hot liver” in traditional Chinese medicine. Treatment methods include Chinese traditional medicines, acupuncture and acupoint injection, external application of drugs, umbilical compress therapy, drip, blow nose therapy, earpins, and clysis. Dietary care is also an important part of traditional Chinese medicine treatment.