Herbarium specimens show contrasting phenological responses to Himalayan climate

Climate change is leading to rapid shifts in seasonality in the himalaya

Climate change has significantly impacted vegetation phenology across the globe with vegetation experiencing an advance in the spring green-up phases and a delay in fall senescence. However, some studies from high latitudes and high elevations have instead shown delayed spring phenology, owing to a lack of chilling fulfillment and altered snow cover and photoperiods. Here we use the MODIS satellite-derived view-angle corrected surface reflectance data (MCD43A4) to document the four phenological phases in the high elevations of the Sikkim Himalaya and compared the phenological trends between below-treeline zones and above-treeline zones. This analysis of remotely sensed data for the study period (2001-2017) reveals considerable shifts in the phenology of the Sikkim Himalaya. Advances in the spring start of the season phase (SOS) were more pronounced than delays in the dates for maturity (MAT), senescence (EOS), and advanced dormancy (DOR). The SOS significantly advanced by 21.3 days while the MAT and EOS were delayed by 15.7 days and 6.5 days respectively over the 17-year study period. The DOR showed an advance of 8.2 days over the study period. The region below the treeline showed more pronounced shifts in phenology with respect to an advanced SOS and a delayed EOS and DOR that above treeline. The MAT, however, showed a greater delay in the zone above the treeline than below. Lastly, unlike other studies from high elevations, there is no indication that winter chilling requirements are driving the spring phenology in this region. We discuss four possible explanations for why vegetation phenology in the high elevations of the Eastern Himalaya may exhibit trends independent of chilling requirements and soil moisture due to mediation by snow cover.

The influence of climate warming on flowering phenology in relation to historical annual and seasonal temperatures and plant functional traits

Climate warming has the potential to influence plant flowering phenology which in turn can have broader ecological consequences. Herbarium collections offer a source of historical plant data that makes possible the ability to document and better understand how warming climate can influence long-term shifts in flowering phenology. We examined the influence of annual, winter, and spring temperatures on the flowering phenology of herbarium specimens for 36 species collected from 1884-2015. We then compared the response to warming between native and non-native, woody and herbaceous, dry and fleshy fruit, and spring vs summer blooming species. Across all species, plants flowered 2.26 days earlier per 1 °C increase in annual average temperatures and 2.93 days earlier per 1 °C increase in spring onset average temperatures. Winter temperatures did not significantly influence flowering phenology. The relationship of temperature and flowering phenology was not significantly different between native and non-native species. Woody species flowered earlier than herbaceous species only in response to increasing annual temperatures. There was no difference in the phenological response between species with dry fruits and those fleshy fruits for any of the temperature periods. Spring blooming species exhibited a significantly greater phenological response to warming yearly average temperatures than summer blooming species. Although herbarium specimens can reveal climate change impacts on phenology, it is also evident that the phenological responses to warming vary greatly among species due to differences in functional traits such as those considered here, as well as other factors.

Species distribution modeling of a cucurbit Herpetospermum darjeelingense in Darjeeling Himalaya, India

Herpetospermum darjeelingense (C.B.Clarke) H. Schaef. & S.S. Renner is a rare cucurbit found in Darjeeling, Himalaya. It is known for its use as food and medicine with possible pharmaceutical applications. Here we assess the current and future habitat suitability of H. darjeelingense in the study area using MaxEnt modeling. In order to obtain accurate results for future models, the ensemble method was used. The current suitable habitat covers only 13% of the study area, while the future models for 2050 and 2070 show zero habitat suitability for the species. This strongly indicates a possible local extinction of the species indicating a need for rapid and decisive conservation efforts.

Systematic Review of Multi-Dimensional Vulnerabilities in the Himalayas

The Himalayan region is a fragile high mountain landscape where the population experiences acute vulnerability within a complex coupled human-natural system due to environmental, social, and economic linkages. The lack of significant regional and spatial knowledge of multi-faceted vulnerabilities hinders any potential recommendations to address these vulnerabilities. We systematically reviewed the literature to recommend mitigation interventions based on the region's socio-economic and ecological vulnerability research to date. We applied the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting of Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis) criteria to search for results from four comprehensive databases. For our assessment, we compiled a final sample (n = 59) of vulnerability research papers to examine the vulnerability types, spatial variation, assessment methodology, and significant drivers of change. Our study represented all Himalayan countries, namely, India, Nepal, Pakistan, China, and Bhutan. More than half of the vulnerability studies were conducted in the central Himalayan region, a quarter in the western Himalayas, and a few in the eastern Himalayas. Our review revealed that the primary drivers of change were climate change, land use/land cover, and glacial lake formation. The vulnerability assessments in the Himalayan region primarily used social science methods as compared to natural science methods. While the vulnerability studies seldom assessed mitigation interventions, our analysis identified fourteen recommendations. The recommended interventions mainly included policy interventions, livelihood improvement, and adaptation measures. This study emphasized that sustainable development requires cross-sectoral interventions to manage existing resources and mitigate the confronting vulnerabilities of the region.

Flowering time advances since the 1970s in a sagebrush steppe community: Implications for management and restoration

Climate change is widely known to affect plant phenology, but little is known about how these impacts manifest in the widespread sagebrush ecosystem of the Western United States, which supports a number of wildlife species of concern. Shifts in plant phenology can trigger consequences for the plants themselves as well as the communities of consumers that depend upon them. We assembled historical observations of first-flowering dates for 51 species collected in the 1970s and 1980s in a montane sagebrush community in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem and compared these to contemporary phenological observations targeting the same species and locations (2016-2019). We also assembled regional climate data (average spring temperature, day of spring snowmelt, and growing degree days) and tested the relationship between first-flowering time and these variables for each species. We observed the largest change in phenology in early-spring flowers, which, as a group, bloomed on average 17 days earlier, and as much as 36 days earlier, in the contemporary data set. Mid-summer flowers bloomed on average 10 days earlier, nonnative species 15 days earlier, and berry-producing shrubs 5 days earlier, while late summer flowering plants did not shift. The greatest correlates of early-spring and mid-summer flowering were average spring temperature and day of snowmelt, which was 21 days earlier, on average, in 2016-2019 relative to the 1973-1978 observations. The shifts in flowering phenology that we observed could indicate developing asynchronies or novel synchronies of these plant resources and wildlife species of conservation concern, including Greater Sage-grouse, whose nesting success is tied to availability of spring forbs; grizzly bears, which rely heavily on berries for their fall diet; and pollinators. This underscores the importance of maintaining a diverse portfolio of native plants in terms of species composition, genetics, phenological responsiveness to climatic cues, and ecological importance to key wildlife and pollinator species. Redundancy within ecological niches may also be important considering that species roles in the community may shift as climate change affects them differently. These considerations are particularly relevant to restoration and habitat-enhancement projects in sagebrush communities across western North America.

Climate warming-driven phenological shifts are species-specific in woody plants: evidence from twig experiment in Kashmir Himalaya

Experimental evidences in support of climate warming-driven phenological shifts are still scarce, particularly from the developing world. Here, we investigated the effect of experimental warming on flowering phenology of selected woody plants in Kashmir Himalaya. We selected the twigs of four congeneric pairs of temperate woody species (Prunus, Populus, Ulmus, Viburnum)-typical spring-flowering plants in the region. Using randomised block design, we monitored these winter dormant twigs in controlled growth chambers to study the effect of different temperature regimes (9, 17, 20 and 23 °C) and species identity on the patterns of phenological shifts. We observed a significant phenological shift in all the species showing preponement in the first flower out and senescence phases ranging from 0.56 to 3.0 and 0.77 to 4.04 days per degree increase in temperature, respectively. The duration of flowering phase in all the species showed a corresponding decrease along the gradient of increasing temperature, which was more driven by preponement of the flower senescence than the start of flowering. The patterns of phenological shifts were highly species-specific, and the magnitude of these shifts significantly varied in all the four pairs of congeneric species despite their phylogenetic similarity. Our study provides experimental support to the previous long-term observation and herbarium-based studies showing that the patterns of phenological shifts in response to global climate warming are likely to vary between species, even those belonging to same evolutionary stock. Our findings highlight that a one-size-fits-all strategy to manage the likely impacts of climate warming-induced phenological shifts will seldom succeed, and should instead be designed for the specific phenological responses of species and regions.

Forest wildflowers bloom earlier as Europe warms: lessons from herbaria and spatial modelling

Today plants often flower earlier due to climate warming. Herbarium specimens are excellent witnesses of such long-term changes. However, the magnitude of phenological shifts may vary geographically, and the data are often clustered. Therefore, large-scale analyses of herbarium data are prone to pseudoreplication and geographical biases. We studied over 6000 herbarium specimens of 20 spring-flowering forest understory herbs from Europe to understand how their phenology had changed during the last century. We estimated phenology trends with or without taking spatial autocorrelation into account. On average plants now flowered over 6 d earlier than at the beginning of the last century. These changes were strongly associated with warmer spring temperatures. Flowering time advanced 3.6 d per 1°C warming. Spatial modelling showed that, in some parts of Europe, plants flowered earlier or later than expected. Without accounting for this, the estimates of phenological shifts were biased and model fits were poor. Our study indicates that forest wildflowers in Europe strongly advanced their phenology in response to climate change. However, these phenological shifts differ geographically. This shows that it is crucial to combine the analysis of herbarium data with spatial modelling when testing for long-term phenology trends across large spatial scales.

Tree-Ring Oxygen Isotope Variations in Subalpine Firs from the Western Himalaya Capture Spring Season Temperature Signals

We analyzed the tree-rings δ18O of Abies spectabilis (fir) growing at the subalpine treeline ecotone in the Magguchatti valley. The valley is located in the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) dominated region of western Himalaya and also receives snow precipitation derived by westerly disturbances (WDs) during the winter months. The 60 year developed (1960–2019 CE) tree-ring δ18O chronology revealed a strong positive correlation with the temperature of late winter and spring months (February to April). Strong negative correlations are also apparent for snowcover, soilmoisture, and relative humidity for the same spring season. Our findings partly contrast the significant correlation results of tree-ring δ18O with summer precipitation and drought indices recorded from other summer monsoon-dominated regions in the Himalayas. The spatial correlation analyses with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and climate parameters showed subdued signals of tropical Pacific at the site, but with a shift to more moisture influx from the Arabian Sea during the last two decades. Moreover, a significant negative correlation with North Atlantic Oscillation further justifies the strongly captured spring temperature and snowcover signals and the weak effect of summer precipitation in fir trees. A temperature rising trend during the latter half of the 20th century and the elevation effect are taken as important factors controlling the moisture source at the treeline ecotone zones.

Using Convolutional Neural Networks to Efficiently Extract Immense Phenological Data From Community Science Images

Community science image libraries offer a massive, but largely untapped, source of observational data for phenological research. The iNaturalist platform offers a particularly rich archive, containing more than 49 million verifiable, georeferenced, open access images, encompassing seven continents and over 278,000 species. A critical limitation preventing scientists from taking full advantage of this rich data source is labor. Each image must be manually inspected and categorized by phenophase, which is both time-intensive and costly. Consequently, researchers may only be able to use a subset of the total number of images available in the database. While iNaturalist has the potential to yield enough data for high-resolution and spatially extensive studies, it requires more efficient tools for phenological data extraction. A promising solution is automation of the image annotation process using deep learning. Recent innovations in deep learning have made these open-source tools accessible to a general research audience. However, it is unknown whether deep learning tools can accurately and efficiently annotate phenophases in community science images. Here, we train a convolutional neural network (CNN) to annotate images of Alliaria petiolata into distinct phenophases from iNaturalist and compare the performance of the model with non-expert human annotators. We demonstrate that researchers can successfully employ deep learning techniques to extract phenological information from community science images. A CNN classified two-stage phenology (flowering and non-flowering) with 95.9% accuracy and classified four-stage phenology (vegetative, budding, flowering, and fruiting) with 86.4% accuracy. The overall accuracy of the CNN did not differ from humans (p = 0.383), although performance varied across phenophases. We found that a primary challenge of using deep learning for image annotation was not related to the model itself, but instead in the quality of the community science images. Up to 4% of A. petiolata images in iNaturalist were taken from an improper distance, were physically manipulated, or were digitally altered, which limited both human and machine annotators in accurately classifying phenology. Thus, we provide a list of photography guidelines that could be included in community science platforms to inform community scientists in the best practices for creating images that facilitate phenological analysis.

Substantial shifts in flowering phenology of Sternbergia vernalis in the Himalaya: Supplementing decadal field records with historical and experimental evidences

In an age of anthropocene, shifting plant phenology is one of the most striking biological indicators of global environmental change. Majority of the studies reporting shifts in plant phenology are available from the North America and Europe and largely scarce from the developing world, including the Himalaya; and studies integrating multiple methodological approaches to investigate the climate-driven phenological shifts are too rare. Here, we report the shifts in spring flowering phenology of model plant species, Sternbergia vernalis in response to the changing climate in Kashmir Himalaya, by integrating decadal field observational records with long-term herbarium and dated-photograph data, and supported with experimental evidences. Our results revealed a significant increasing trend of 0.038, 0.016 and 0.023 °C/year in the annual mean maximum temperature (T_max), mean minimum temperature (T_min) and diurnal temperature range (DTR) respectively; but an insignificant decreasing trend in annual precipitation of -1.24 mm/year over the last four decades (1980-2019) in this Himalayan region. The flowering phenology of S. vernalis has significantly advanced by 11.8 days/°C and 27.8 days/°C increase in T_max and T_min respectively, indicating that the climate warming has led to substantial shifts in flowering phenology of the model plant species. We also observed a strong association of seasonal T_max (December-February) and DTR on the early onset of spring flowering, however precipitation had no significant effect on the timing of flowering. The greenhouse experiment results further supported a significant effect of temperature in triggering the phenological shifts, wherein the model plant grown under different temperature treatments flowered 9-20 days earlier compared to the control. Our study showcases the integrated use of multiple methodological approaches for unravelling the long-term phenological shifts in response to climate change, and contributes in filling the knowledge gaps in the phenological research from the developing world in general and the Himalaya in particular.

Vegetation Response to Holocene Climate Change in the Qinling Mountains in the Temperate–Subtropical Transition Zone of Central–East China

Global warming is having a profound influence on vegetation and biodiversity patterns, especially in alpine areas and high latitudes. The Qinling Mountain range is located in the transition zone between the temperate and subtropical ecosystems of central–east China and thus the vegetation of the area is diverse. Understanding the long-term interactions between plant diversity and climate change can potentially provide a reference for future landscape management and biodiversity conservation strategies in the Qinling Mountains region. Here, we use a pollen record from the Holocene sediments of Daye Lake, on Mount Taibai in the Qingling Mountains, to study regional vegetation changes based on biomes reconstruction and diversity analysis. Temperature and precipitation records from sites close to Daye Lake are used to provide environmental background to help determine the vegetation response to climate change. The results indicate that climate change was the main factor influencing vegetation and palynological diversity in the Qinling Mountains during the Holocene. The cold and dry climate at the beginning of the early Holocene (11,700–10,700 cal yr BP) resulted in a low abundance and uneven distribution of regional vegetation types, with the dominance of coniferous forest. During the early Holocene (10,700–7,000 cal yr BP), temperate deciduous broadleaf forest expanded, palynological diversity and evenness increased, indicating that the warm and humid climate promoted vegetation growth. In the middle Holocene (7,000–3,000 cal yr BP), the climate became slightly drier but a relatively warm environment supported the continued increase in palynological diversity. After ∼3,000 cal yr BP, palynological diversity and the evenness index commenced a decreasing trend, in agreement with the decreased temperature and precipitation in the Qinling Mountains. It’s noteworthy that human activity at this time had a potential influence on the vegetation. During the past few centuries, however, palynological diversity has increased along with the global temperature, and therefore it is possible that in the short-term ongoing climatic warming will promote vegetation development and palynological diversity in the area without human interference.

The growing and vital role of botanical gardens in climate change research

Botanical gardens make unique contributions to climate change research, conservation, and public engagement. They host unique resources, including diverse collections of plant species growing in natural conditions, historical records, and expert staff, and attract large numbers of visitors and volunteers. Networks of botanical gardens spanning biomes and continents can expand the value of these resources. Over the past decade, research at botanical gardens has advanced our understanding of climate change impacts on plant phenology, physiology, anatomy, and conservation. For example, researchers have utilized botanical garden networks to assess anatomical and functional traits associated with phenological responses to climate change. New methods have enhanced the pace and impact of this research, including phylogenetic and comparative methods, and online databases of herbarium specimens and photographs that allow studies to expand geographically, temporally, and taxonomically in scope. Botanical gardens have grown their community and citizen science programs, informing the public about climate change and monitoring plants more intensively than is possible with garden staff alone. Despite these advances, botanical gardens are still underutilized in climate change research. To address this, we review recent progress and describe promising future directions for research and public engagement at botanical gardens.

Extirpated prairie species demonstrate more variable phenological responses to warming than extant congeners

PREMISE

Shifting phenology in response to climate is one mechanism that can promote population persistence and geographic spread; therefore, species with limited ability to phenologically track changing environmental conditions may be more susceptible to population declines. Alternatively, apparently nonresponding species may demonstrate divergent responses to multiple environmental conditions experienced across seasons.

METHODS

Capitalizing on herbarium records from across the midwestern United States and on detailed botanical surveys documenting local extinctions over the past century, we investigated whether extirpated and extant taxa differ in their phenological responses to temperature and precipitation during winter and spring (during flowering and the growing season before flowering) or in the magnitude of their flowering time shift over the past century.

RESULTS

Although warmer temperatures across seasons advanced flowering, extirpated and extant species differed in the magnitude of their phenological responses to winter and spring warming. Extirpated species demonstrated inconsistent phenological responses to warmer spring temperatures, whereas extant species consistently advanced flowering in response to warmer spring temperatures. In contrast, extirpated species advanced flowering more than extant species in response to warmer winter temperatures. Greater spring precipitation tended to delay flowering for both extirpated and extant taxa. Finally, both extirpated and extant taxa delayed flowering over time.

CONCLUSIONS

This study highlights the importance of understanding phenological responses to seasonal warming and indicates that extirpated species may demonstrate more variable phenological responses to temperature than extant congeners, a finding consistent with the hypothesis that appropriate phenological responses may reduce species' likelihood of extinction.

Geopolitics of bitterness: Deciphering the history and cultural biogeography of Quassia amara L

ETHNOPHARMACOLOGICAL RELEVANCE

Quassia amara L. recently came into the spotlight in French Guiana, when it became the object of a biopiracy claim. Due to the numerous use records throughout the Guiana shield, at least since the 18th century, a thorough investigation of its origin seemed relevant and timely. In the light of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) and the Nagoya protocol, questions about the origin of local knowledge are important to debate.

AIM OF THE STUDY

Defining cultural biogeography as the dynamics through space and time of biocultural complexes, we used this theoretical framework to shed light on the complex biogeographical and cultural history of Q. amara. We explored in particular the possible transfer of medicinal knowledge on an Old World species to a botanically related New World one by enslaved Africans in Suriname.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Historical and contemporary literature research was performed by means of digitized manuscripts, archives and databases from the 17th to the 21st century. We retrieved data from digitized herbarium vouchers in herbaria of the Botanic Garden Meise (Belgium); Naturalis Biodiversity Center (the Netherlands); Missouri Botanical Garden, the Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History, the Field Museum (USA); Royal Botanic Gardens Kew (UK); the IRD Herbarium, French Guiana and the Museum National d'Histoire Naturelle (France). Vernacular names were retrieved from literature and herbarium specimens and compared to verify the origin of Quassia amara and its uses.

RESULTS

Our exploration of digitized herbarium vouchers resulted in 1287 records, of which 661 were Q. amara and 636 were Q. africana. We observed that the destiny of this species, over at least 300 years, interweaves politics, economy, culture and medicine in a very complex way. Quassia amara's uses are difficult to attribute to specific cultural groups: the species is widely distributed in Central and South America, where it is popular among many ethnic groups. The species spread from Central to South America during the early 18th century due to political and economic reasons. This migration possibly resulted from simultaneous migration by religious orders (Jesuits) from Central America to northern South America and by Carib-speaking Amerindians (from northern South America to Suriname). Subsequently, through colonial trade networks, Q. amara spread to the rest of the world. The absence of African-derived local names in the Guiana shield suggests that Q. africana was not sufficiently familiar to enslaved Africans in the region that they preserved its names and transferred the associated medicinal knowledge to Q. amara.

CONCLUSIONS

Cultural biogeography has proven an interesting concept to reconstruct the dynamics of biocultural interactions through space and time, while herbarium databases have shown to be useful to decipher evolution of local plant knowledge. Tracing the origin of a knowledge is nevertheless a complex adventure that deserves time and interdisciplinary studies.

Chilling and Heat Accumulation of Fruit and Nut Trees and Flower Bud Vulnerability to Early Spring Low Temperatures in New Mexico: Meteorological Approach

Fruit and nut trees production is an important activity across the southwest United States and this production is greatly impacted by the local climate. Temperature is the main environmental factor influencing the growth and the productivity of the fruit and nut trees as it affects the trees’ physiology and the vulnerability of flower bud, flowers, and young fruit and nut to the low temperatures or spring frost. The objective of the present study is to estimate the chilling and heat accumulation of fruit and nut trees across New Mexico. Three study sites as Fabian Garcia, Los Lunas, and Farmington were considered and climate variables were collected at hourly time step. The Utah model and the Dynamic model were used to estimate the accumulated chilling while the Forcing model was used for the heat accumulation. The possible fruit and nut trees endodormancy and ecodormancy periods were also determined at the study sites. The results obtained chilling hours of 715 ± 86.60 h at Fabian Garcia, 729.53 ± 41.71 h at Los Lunas, and 828.95 ± 83.73 h at Farmington using the Utah model. The accumulated chill portions during trees’ endodormancy was 3.12 ± 3.05 CP at Fabian Garcia, 42.23 ± 5.08 CP at Los Lunas, and 56.14 ± 1.84 CP at Farmington. The accumulated heat was 8735.52 ± 1650.91 GDH at Fabian Garcia, 7695.43 ± 212.90 GDH at Los Lunas, and 5984.69 ± 2353.20 GDH at Farmington. The fruit and nut trees are at no risk of bud flowers vulnerability at Fabian Garcia while they are under high risk of bud flowers and or young fruit and nut vulnerability to low temperatures early spring as hourly temperature can still drop below 0 °C in April at the end of ecodormancy and flower blooming and young fruits and nuts development stage at Los Lunas and Farmington. Severe weather, especially frost conditions during winter and early spring, can be a significant threat to sustainable nut and fruit production in the northern New Mexico while high chilling requirement fruit and nut trees might not meet chill requirements in the southern New Mexico.

Effects of winter chilling vs. spring forcing on the spring phenology of trees in a cold region and a warmer reference region

Regions at high latitudes and high altitudes are undergoing a more pronounced winter warming than spring warming, and such asymmetric warming will affect chilling and forcing processes and thus the spring phenology of plants. We analyzed winter chilling and spring forcing accumulation in relation to the spring phenology of three tree species (Ulmus pumila, Populus simonii, and Syringa oblata) growing in a cold region (CR) compared with trees in a warmer reference region (WR), using the Dynamic Model and the Growing Degree Hour (GDH) model. We tested that forcing rather than chilling affects the spring phenology of trees in CR (hypothesis I), and that trees in CR have both lower mean chilling and forcing temperature and thus longer accumulation periods than trees in WR (hypothesis II). The modeling results confirmed that chilling and forcing occur simultaneously during the early spring when temperature gradually increases. In line with our hypotheses, forcing played a crucial role in spring phenology in CR, but chilling and forcing combined to determine spring phenology in WR. The temperature during the chilling and forcing periods was lower and the accumulation period started earlier and ended later in CR than in WR. Moreover, the chilling accumulation was broken into two periods by the low deep winter temperature in CR, and that interruption will be removed by future strong winter warming. Future asymmetric warming, with a stronger temperature increase in winter than in spring, could decrease the forcing accumulation effects and increase the chilling effects on the spring phenology of plants in CR. This change in the balance between chilling and forcing will lead to a shift in plant phenology, which will further have major impacts on biogeochemical cycles and on ecosystem functions and services.

Herbarium records indicate variation in bloom-time sensitivity to temperature across a geographically diverse region

Anthropogenic warming's effects on phenology across environmental and temporal gradients are well recognized. Long-term phenological monitoring data are often limited in duration and geographic scope, but recent efforts to digitize herbaria collections make it possible to reliably reconstruct historic flowering phenology across broad geographic scales and multiple species, lending to an increased understanding of community response to climate change. In this study, we examined collection dates (1901 to 2015) of 8540 flowering specimens from 39 native species in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region of North America. We hypothesized that flowering phenology would be sensitive to temperature but that sensitivity would vary depending on blooming season and geographic range position. As expected, we found that early-season bloomers are more sensitive to temperature than later-season bloomers. Sensitivity to temperature was significantly greater at low elevations and in the maritime (western) portion of the PNW than at higher elevations and in the eastern interior, respectively. The elevational and longitudinal effects on flowering sensitivity reflect spring "arriving" earlier at low elevations and in the maritime portion of the PNW. These results demonstrate that phenological responses to warming vary substantially across climatically diverse regions, warranting careful and nuanced consideration of climate warming's effects on plant phenology.

A century of pollination success revealed by herbarium specimens of seed pods

A widely observed pollinator decline around the world has led to the prediction that terrestrial ecosystems could be disrupted as plant pollination suffers, but declining pollination success has not been tested rigorously in wild plants, and it still remains unclear how pollination success of plant species responds differently in the context of pollinator decline. By viewing the number of seeds per pod as a quantitative measure of successful pollination, we examined seed pods in 4637 herbarium specimens of 109 obligately outcrossing legumes collected over the past century. We found that only 13 species showed significant temporal change with nine of those as an increase. None of the three subfamilies of legumes showed a consistent trend, and the subfamily Papilionoideae with the most specialized flowers, had increasing seed number per pod more often than decreasing. We conclude that legume pollination in China shows no sign of disruption and the effects of plant-pollinator disruption may be more complicated than simplistic predictions have allowed.

Assessment of North American arthropod collections: prospects and challenges for addressing biodiversity research

Over 300 million arthropod specimens are housed in North American natural history collections. These collections represent a "vast hidden treasure trove" of biodiversity -95% of the specimen label data have yet to be transcribed for research, and less than 2% of the specimens have been imaged. Specimen labels contain crucial information to determine species distributions over time and are essential for understanding patterns of ecology and evolution, which will help assess the growing biodiversity crisis driven by global change impacts. Specimen images offer indispensable insight and data for analyses of traits, and ecological and phylogenetic patterns of biodiversity. Here, we review North American arthropod collections using two key metrics, specimen holdings and digitization efforts, to assess the potential for collections to provide needed biodiversity data. We include data from 223 arthropod collections in North America, with an emphasis on the United States. Our specific findings are as follows: (1) The majority of North American natural history collections (88%) and specimens (89%) are located in the United States. Canada has comparable holdings to the United States relative to its estimated biodiversity. Mexico has made the furthest progress in terms of digitization, but its specimen holdings should be increased to reflect the estimated higher Mexican arthropod diversity. The proportion of North American collections that has been digitized, and the number of digital records available per species, are both much lower for arthropods when compared to chordates and plants. (2) The National Science Foundation's decade-long ADBC program (Advancing Digitization of Biological Collections) has been transformational in promoting arthropod digitization. However, even if this program became permanent, at current rates, by the year 2050 only 38% of the existing arthropod specimens would be digitized, and less than 1% would have associated digital images. (3) The number of specimens in collections has increased by approximately 1% per year over the past 30 years. We propose that this rate of increase is insufficient to provide enough data to address biodiversity research needs, and that arthropod collections should aim to triple their rate of new specimen acquisition. (4) The collections we surveyed in the United States vary broadly in a number of indicators. Collectively, there is depth and breadth, with smaller collections providing regional depth and larger collections providing greater global coverage. (5) Increased coordination across museums is needed for digitization efforts to target taxa for research and conservation goals and address long-term data needs. Two key recommendations emerge: collections should significantly increase both their specimen holdings and their digitization efforts to empower continental and global biodiversity data pipelines, and stimulate downstream research.

Long-term lichen trends in a rust belt region

Deindustrialization and national air pollution standards greatly reduced air pollution in the USA since the mid-20th century, particularly in the ‘rust belt’ industrial cities of the Great Lakes and Northeastern regions. Still, sprawling urbanization, vehicular traffic and coal-fired power plants may maintain regional heat islands and NOx and SO2 pollution. Lichens are one of the first, and longest used, bioindicators of urban heat island effects and atmospheric pollution, but there are few long-term studies of lichen bioindications. We examined herbaria records for lichens collected between 1869 and 2016 in the Western New York (WNY) region (USA). We hypothesized a long-term trend of increasing pollution-sensitive lichens in the region as well as increased desiccation-tolerant species from urban heat island effects. We also evaluated local (urban and tree land use cover) and regional (ecological zones) influences on pollution-sensitive and desiccation-tolerant lichens. We found that the WNY lichen communities appear to be shaped by urbanization with desiccation- and pollution-tolerant species dominating areas adjacent to the urbanized/industrialized core, and direct local effects of the urban heat island and vehicle traffic within the urban core. These results suggest that despite deindustrialization and tighter air quality standards, an industrial imprint remains on the lichen communities of WNY. However, despite urban filtering toward desiccation- and pollution-tolerant lichen species, the urban landscape contributed unique lichen species to the region, increasing WNY’s overall lichen biodiversity as much as the relatively pristine Allegheny Plateau. Hence, the urbanized areas of WNY contribute unique species to the regional lichen flora.

A new phenological metric for use in pheno-climatic models: A case study using herbarium specimens of Streptanthus tortuosus

PREMISE

Herbarium specimens have been used to detect climate-induced shifts in flowering time by using the day of year of collection (DOY) as a proxy for first or peak flowering date. Variation among herbarium sheets in their phenological status, however, undermines the assumption that DOY accurately represents any particular phenophase. Ignoring this variation can reduce the explanatory power of pheno-climatic models (PCMs) designed to predict the effects of climate on flowering date.

METHODS

Here we present a protocol for the phenological scoring of imaged herbarium specimens using an ImageJ plugin, and we introduce a quantitative metric of a specimen's phenological status, the phenological index (PI), which we use in PCMs to control for phenological variation among specimens of Streptanthus tortuosus (Brassicaceeae) when testing for the effects of climate on DOY. We demonstrate that including PI as an independent variable improves model fit.

RESULTS

Including PI in PCMs increased the model R 2 relative to PCMs that excluded PI; regression coefficients for climatic parameters, however, remained constant.

DISCUSSION

Our protocol provides a simple, quantitative phenological metric for any observed plant. Including PI in PCMs increases R 2 and enables predictions of the DOY of any phenophase under any specified climatic conditions.

Diverse Developmental Responses to Warming Temperatures Underlie Changes in Flowering Phenologies

Climate change has resulted in increased temperature means across the globe. Many angiosperms flower earlier in response to rising temperature and the phenologies of these species are reasonably well predicted by models that account for spring (early growing season) and winter temperatures. Surprisingly, however, exceptions to the general pattern of precocious flowering are common. Many species either do not appear to respond or even delay flowering in, or following, warm growing seasons. Existing phenological models have not fully addressed such exceptions to the common association of advancing phenologies with warming temperatures. The phenological events that are typically recorded (e.g., onset of flowering) are but one phase in a complex developmental process that often begins one or more years previously, and flowering time may be strongly influenced by temperature over the entire multi-year course of flower development. We propose a series of models that explore effects of growing-season temperature increase on the multiple processes of flower development and how changes in development may impact the timing of anthesis. We focus on temperate forest trees, which are characterized by preformation, the initiation of flower primordia one or more years prior to anthesis. We then synthesize the literature on flower development to evaluate the models. Although fragmentary, the existing data suggest the potential for temperature to affect all aspects of flower development in woody perennials. But, even for relatively well studied taxa, the critical developmental responses that underlie phenological patterns are difficult to identify. Our proposed models explain the seemingly counter-intuitive observations that warmer growing-season temperatures delay flowering in many species. Future research might concentrate on taxa that do not appear to respond to temperature, or delay flowering in response to warm temperatures, to understand what processes contribute to this pattern.

Spring- and fall-flowering species show diverging phenological responses to climate in the Southeast USA

Plant phenological shifts (e.g., earlier flowering dates) are known consequences of climate change that may alter ecosystem functioning, productivity, and ecological interactions across trophic levels. Temperate, subalpine, and alpine regions have largely experienced advancement of spring phenology with climate warming, but the effects of climate change in warm, humid regions and on autumn phenology are less well understood. In this study, nearly 10,000 digitized herbarium specimen records were used to examine the phenological sensitivities of fall- and spring-flowering asteraceous plants to temperature and precipitation in the US Southeastern Coastal Plain. Climate data reveal warming trends in this already warm climate, and spring- and fall-flowering species responded differently to this change. Spring-flowering species flowered earlier at a rate of 1.8-2.3 days per 1 °C increase in spring temperature, showing remarkable congruence with studies of northern temperate species. Fall-flowering species flowered slightly earlier with warmer spring temperatures, but flowering was significantly later with warmer summer temperatures at a rate of 0.8-1.2 days per 1 °C. Spring-flowering species exhibited slightly later flowering times with increased spring precipitation. Fall phenology was less clearly influenced by precipitation. These results suggest that even warm, humid regions may experience phenological shifts and thus be susceptible to potentially detrimental effects such as plant-pollinator asynchrony.

Rapid changes in eastern Himalayan alpine flora with climate change

PREMISE OF THE STUDY

With biodiversity and rates of climate change among the highest, the eastern Himalaya are critical for understanding the interaction of these two variables. However, there is a dearth of longitudinal data sets that address the effects of climate change on the exceptional alpine biodiversity of the Himalaya.

METHODS

We established permanent alpine vegetation monitoring plots in three mountain chains of the Hengduan Mountains, the easternmost Himalaya, which have warmed 0.03-0.05°C yr^-1 since 1985. Recently, we resampled plots (176 1-m² quadrat plots and 88 sections of 11 summits in three Hengduan mountain chains) to measure changes in vegetation after 7 years.

KEY RESULTS

Over 7 years, Tibetan alpine vegetation increased in number of species (+8 species/summit; +2.3 species/m² ), in frequency (+47.8 plants/m² ), and in diversity (+1.6 effective species/m² ). Stepwise regressions indicated that warmer temperatures, southerly aspects, and higher elevations were associated with greater increases in these vegetation metrics. Unexpectedly, Himalayan endemic species increased (+1.4 species/m² ; +8.5 plants/m² ), especially on higher-elevation summits. In contrast, the increase in relative abundance of non-alpine species was greater at lower-elevation summits. Plants used by local Tibetans also increased (+1.3 species/m² ; +32 plants/m² ).

CONCLUSIONS

As in other alpine areas, biodiversity is increasing with climate change in the Himalaya. Unlike other areas, endemic species are proliferating at the highest summits and are indicators of change.

Temperature controls phenology in continuously flowering Protea species of subtropical Africa

PREMISE OF THE STUDY

Herbarium specimens are increasingly used as records of plant flowering phenology. However, most herbarium-based studies on plant phenology focus on taxa from temperate regions. Here, we explore flowering phenologic responses to climate in the subtropical plant genus Protea (Proteaceae), an iconic group of plants that flower year-round and are endemic to subtropical Africa.

METHODS

We present a novel, circular sliding window approach to investigate phenological patterns developed for species with year-round flowering. We employ our method to evaluate the extent to which site-to-site and year-to-year variation in temperature and precipitation affect flowering dates using a database of 1727 herbarium records of 25 Protea species. We also explore phylogenetic conservatism in flowering phenology.

RESULTS

We show that herbarium data combined with our sliding window approach successfully captured independently reported flowering phenology patterns (r = 0.93). Both warmer sites and warmer years were associated with earlier flowering of 3-5 days/°C, whereas precipitation variation had no significant effect on flowering phenology. Although species vary widely in phenological responsiveness, responses are phylogenetically conserved, with closely related species tending to shift flowering similarly with increasing temperature.

DISCUSSION

Our results point to climate-responsive phenology for this important plant genus and indicate that the subtropical, aseasonally flowering genus Protea has temperature-driven flowering responses that are remarkably similar to those of better-studied northern temperate plant species, suggesting a generality across biomes that has not been described elsewhere.

Using herbaria to study global environmental change

During the last centuries, humans have transformed global ecosystems. With their temporal dimension, herbaria provide the otherwise scarce long-term data crucial for tracking ecological and evolutionary changes over this period of intense global change. The sheer size of herbaria, together with their increasing digitization and the possibility of sequencing DNA from the preserved plant material, makes them invaluable resources for understanding ecological and evolutionary species' responses to global environmental change. Following the chronology of global change, we highlight how herbaria can inform about long-term effects on plants of at least four of the main drivers of global change: pollution, habitat change, climate change and invasive species. We summarize how herbarium specimens so far have been used in global change research, discuss future opportunities and challenges posed by the nature of these data, and advocate for an intensified use of these 'windows into the past' for global change research and beyond.

Overlooked climate parameters best predict flowering onset: Assessing phenological models using the elastic net

Determining the manner in which plant species shift their flowering times in response to climatic conditions is essential to understanding and forecasting the impacts of climate change on the world's flora. The limited taxonomic diversity and duration of most phenological datasets, however, have impeded a comprehensive, systematic determination of the best predictors of flowering phenology. Additionally, many studies of the relationship between climate conditions and plant phenology have included only a limited set of climate parameters that are often chosen a priori and may therefore overlook those parameters to which plants are most phenologically sensitive. This study harnesses 894,392 digital herbarium records and 1,959 in situ observations to produce the first assessment of the effects of a large number (25) of climate parameters on the flowering time of a very large number (2,468) of angiosperm taxa throughout North America. In addition, we compare the predictive capacity of phenological models constructed from the collection dates of herbarium specimens vs. repeated in situ observations of individual plants using a regression approach-elastic net regularization-that has not previously been used in phenological modeling, but exhibits several advantages over ordinary least squares and stepwise regression. When herbarium-derived data and in situ phenological observations were used to predict flowering onset, the multivariate models based on each of these data sources had similar predictive capacity (R²  = 0.27). Further, apart from mean maximum temperature (TMAX), the two best predictors of flowering time have not commonly been included in phenological models: the number of frost-free days (NFFD) and the quantity of precipitation as snow (PAS) in the seasons preceding flowering. By vetting these models across an unprecedented number of taxa, this work demonstrates a new approach to phenological modeling.

Research Progress on Changes in Land Use and Land Cover in the Western Himalayas (India) and Effects on Ecosystem Services

Western Himalaya is an important region in terms of its enriched biodiversity and immense ecosystem services (ESS). However, its biodiversity and ESS are under tremendous pressure from rapid population growth, developmental activities, unplanned urbanization, agricultural expansion, climate change, and the associated changes in land use and land cover (LULC). This study provides a systematic review of the composition and pattern of LULC (from existing literature) and the effects of LULC change on various ESS provided by the western Himalayan ecosystems. Despite being such a significant area, data and studies concerning the impacts of LULC change on the spatial distribution of ESS, focused particularly on the western Himalayan region are inadequately reported. Most existing studies indicate a general decrease in forest cover and an increase in forest fragmentation along with generally increasing trends in built-up areas, croplands, and barren lands. These results imply ecosystem degradation and a reduction in the potential for the sustainable flow of ESS from this region. In this respect, this study suggests that quantification and spatial mapping of ESS in the western Himalayan region is conducted.

Herbarium specimens reveal substantial and unexpected variation in phenological sensitivity across the eastern United States

Phenology is a key biological trait that can determine an organism's survival and provides one of the clearest indicators of the effects of recent climatic change. Long time-series observations of plant phenology collected at continental scales could clarify latitudinal and regional patterns of plant responses and illuminate drivers of that variation, but few such datasets exist. Here, we use the web tool CrowdCurio to crowdsource phenological data from over 7000 herbarium specimens representing 30 diverse flowering plant species distributed across the eastern United States. Our results, spanning 120 years and generated from over 2000 crowdsourcers, illustrate numerous aspects of continental-scale plant reproductive phenology. First, they support prior studies that found plant reproductive phenology significantly advances in response to warming, especially for early-flowering species. Second, they reveal that fruiting in populations from warmer, lower latitudes is significantly more phenologically sensitive to temperature than that for populations from colder, higher-latitude regions. Last, we found that variation in phenological sensitivities to climate within species between regions was of similar magnitude to variation between species. Overall, our results suggest that phenological responses to anthropogenic climate change will be heterogeneous within communities and across regions, with large amounts of regional variability driven by local adaptation, phenotypic plasticity and differences in species assemblages. As millions of imaged herbarium specimens become available online, they will play an increasingly critical role in revealing large-scale patterns within assemblages and across continents that ultimately can improve forecasts of the impacts of climatic change on the structure and function of ecosystems.This article is part of the theme issue 'Biological collections for understanding biodiversity in the Anthropocene'.

Species-Level Vegetation Mapping in a Himalayan Treeline Ecotone Using Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) Imagery

Understanding ecological patterns and response to climate change requires unbiased data on species distribution. This can be challenging, especially in biodiverse but extreme environments like the Himalaya. This study presents the results of the first ever application of Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) imagery for species-level mapping of vegetation in the Himalaya following a hierarchical Geographic Object Based Image Analysis (GEOBIA) method. The first level of classification separated green vegetated objects from the rest with overall accuracy of 95%. At the second level, seven cover types were identified (including four woody vegetation species). For this, the suitability of various spectral, shape and textural features were tested for classifying them using an ensemble decision tree algorithm. Spectral features alone yielded ~70% accuracy (kappa 0.66) whereas adding textural and shape features marginally improved the accuracy (73%) but at the cost of a substantial increase in processing time. Contrast in plant morphological traits was the key to distinguishing nearby stands as different species. Hence, broad-leaved versus fine needle leaved vegetation were mapped more accurately than structurally similar classes such as Rhododendron anthopogon versus non-photosynthetic vegetation. Results highlight the potential and limitations of the suggested UAS-GEOBIA approach for detailed mapping of plant communities and suggests future research directions.

Simulated warming enhances biological invasion of Solidago canadensis and Bidens frondosa by increasing reproductive investment and altering flowering phenology pattern

Phenological and reproductive shifts of plants due to climate change may have important influences on population dynamics. Climate change may also affect invasive species by changing their phenology and reproduction, but few studies have explored this possibility. Here, we investigated the impact of climate change on the phenology, reproduction and invasion potential of two alien Solidago canadensis and Bidens frondosa and one native weed, Pterocypsela laciniata, all of which are in the Asteraceae family. The three species responded to simulated climate change by increasing reproductive investments and root/leaf ratio, prolonging flowering duration, and while the two alien species also displayed a mass-flowering pattern. Moreover, our experimental results indicated that the alien invasive species may have greater phenological plasticity in response to simulated warming than that of the native species (P. laciniata). As such, climate change may enhance the invasion and accelerate the invasive process of these alien plant species.

Prediction of Lime Tolerance in Rhododendron Based on Herbarium Specimen and Geochemical Data

Rhododendrons are typically known to be calcifuges that cannot grow well in lime soils. Data on lime tolerance of different taxa in Rhododendron are scarce. Habitats of naturally distributed specimens of genus Rhododendron were compiled as Chinese text-based locations from the Chinese Virtual Herbarium. The locations were then geocoded into latitude/longitude pairs and subsequently connected to soil characteristics including pH and CaCO₃ from the Harmonized World Soil Database (HWSD). Using the upper quartile values of pH > 7.2 and CaCO₃ > 2% weight in topsoil as threshold, we predicted the lime tolerant taxa. A dataset of 31,146 Rhododendron specimens including the information on taxonomy, GPS locations and soil parameters for both top- and subsoil was built. The majority of the specimens were distributed in soils with moderately acidic pH and without presence of CaCO₃. 76 taxa with potential lime tolerance were predicted out of 525 taxa. The large scale data analysis based on combined data of geocoded herbarium specimens and HWSD allows identification of valuable Rhododendron species, subspecies or botanical varieties with potential tolerance to lime soils with higher pH. The predicted tolerant taxa are valuable resources for an in-depth evaluation of lime tolerance or for further use in horticulture and breeding.

Maternal Environment Effect of Warming and Eutrophication on the Emergence of Curled Pondweed, Potamogeton crispus L

Maternal effects may play an important role in life history and offspring performance of aquatic plants. Performance and response of maternal and offspring aquatic plants can affect population dynamics and community composition. Understanding maternal effect can help to fill a gap in the knowledge of aquatic plant life cycles, and provide important insights for species’ responses to climate change and eutrophication. This study showed that maternal warming and eutrophication significantly affected the early life stages of curled pondweed, Potamogeton crispus, a submerged macrophyte. Propagule in warmed condition had higher germination percentages and a shorter mean germination time than those under ambient conditions. However, propagule germination in phosphorus addition treatment was inhibited due to the negative effect of eutrophication, e.g., phytoplankton competition and deteriorated underwater light. Meanwhile, elevated temperature led to a decrease of total nitrogen concentrations and an increase of carbon: nitrogen ratios in plant tissues, which may suggest that P. crispus will allocate more nutrients to propagules in order to resist the adverse effects of high temperature. A subsequent germination experiment in the same ambient condition showed that maternal warming promoted seedling emergence in contrast to maternal phosphorus addition. Consequently, global warming could modify population growth via maternal environmental effects on early life histories, while increased anthropogenic nutrient inputs may result in a decreased submerged macrophyte. These maternal effects on offspring performance may change competition and the survival of early life-history stages under climate warming and eutrophication through changing the ecological stoichiometry of plant tissue.

Contrasting spatial, temporal and environmental patterns in observation and specimen based species occurrence data

Species occurrence data records the location and time of an encounter with a species, and is valuable for many aspects of ecological and evolutionary analyses. A key distinction within species occurrence data is between (1) collected and preserved specimens that can be taxonomically validated (i.e., natural history collections), and (2) observations, which are more error prone but richer in terms of number and spread of observations. In this study we analyse the distribution in temporal, spatial, taxonomic and environmental coverage of specimen- and observation based species occurrence data for land plants in Norway, a region with strong climatic and human population density gradients. Of 4.8 million species occurrence records, the majority (78%) were observations. However, there was a greater species richness in the specimen record (N = 4691) than in the observation record (N = 3193) and most species were recorded more as specimens than observations. Specimen data was on average older, and collected later during the year. Both record types were highly influenced by a small number of prolific contributors. The species most highly represented in the observation data set were widespread or invasive, while in the specimen records, taxonomically challenging species were overrepresented. Species occurrence records were unevenly spatially distributed. Both specimen and observation records were concentrated in regions of Norway with high human population density and with high temperatures and precipitation, but in different regions within Norway. Observation and specimen records thus differ in taxonomic, temporal, spatial and environmental coverage for a well-sampled group and study region, potentially influencing the ecological inferences made from studies utilizing species occurrence data. The distribution of observation data dominates the dataset, so inferences of species diversity and distributions do not correspond to the evolutionary or physiological knowledge of species, which is based on specimen data. We make recommendations for users of biodiversity data, and collectors to better exploit the complementary strengths of these distinct biodiversity data types.

Herbarium specimens can reveal impacts of climate change on plant phenology; a review of methods and applications

Studies in plant phenology have provided some of the best evidence for large-scale responses to recent climate change. Over the last decade, more than thirty studies have used herbarium specimens to analyze changes in flowering phenology over time, although studies from tropical environments are thus far generally lacking. In this review, we summarize the approaches and applications used to date. Reproductive plant phenology has primarily been analyzed using two summary statistics, the mean flowering day of year and first-flowering day of year, but mean flowering day has proven to be a more robust statistic. Two types of regression models have been applied to test for associations between flowering, temperature and time: flowering day regressed on year and flowering day regressed on temperature. Most studies analyzed the effect of temperature by averaging temperatures from three months prior to the date of flowering. On average, published studies have used 55 herbarium specimens per species to characterize changes in phenology over time, but in many cases fewer specimens were used. Geospatial grid data are increasingly being used for determining average temperatures at herbarium specimen collection locations, allowing testing for finer scale correspondence between phenology and climate. Multiple studies have shown that inferences from herbarium specimen data are comparable to findings from systematically collected field observations. Understanding phenological responses to climate change is a crucial step towards recognizing implications for higher trophic levels and large-scale ecosystem processes. As herbaria are increasingly being digitized worldwide, more data are becoming available for future studies. As temperatures continue to rise globally, herbarium specimens are expected to become an increasingly important resource for analyzing plant responses to climate change.

Widespread sampling biases in herbaria revealed from large-scale digitization

Nonrandom collecting practices may bias conclusions drawn from analyses of herbarium records. Recent efforts to fully digitize and mobilize regional floras online offer a timely opportunity to assess commonalities and differences in herbarium sampling biases. We determined spatial, temporal, trait, phylogenetic, and collector biases in c. 5 million herbarium records, representing three of the most complete digitized floras of the world: Australia (AU), South Africa (SA), and New England, USA (NE). We identified numerous shared and unique biases among these regions. Shared biases included specimens collected close to roads and herbaria; specimens collected more frequently during biological spring and summer; specimens of threatened species collected less frequently; and specimens of close relatives collected in similar numbers. Regional differences included overrepresentation of graminoids in SA and AU and of annuals in AU; and peak collection during the 1910s in NE, 1980s in SA, and 1990s in AU. Finally, in all regions, a disproportionately large percentage of specimens were collected by very few individuals. We hypothesize that these mega-collectors, with their associated preferences and idiosyncrasies, shaped patterns of collection bias via 'founder effects'. Studies using herbarium collections should account for sampling biases, and future collecting efforts should avoid compounding these biases to the extent possible.

Prediction of Arctic plant phenological sensitivity to climate change from historical records

The pace of climate change in the Arctic is dramatic, with temperatures rising at a rate double the global average. The timing of flowering and fruiting (phenology) is often temperature dependent and tends to advance as the climate warms. Herbarium specimens, photographs, and field observations can provide historical phenology records and have been used, on a localised scale, to predict species' phenological sensitivity to climate change. Conducting similar localised studies in the Canadian Arctic, however, poses a challenge where the collection of herbarium specimens, photographs, and field observations have been temporally and spatially sporadic. We used flowering and seed dispersal times of 23 Arctic species from herbarium specimens, photographs, and field observations collected from across the 2.1 million km² area of Nunavut, Canada, to determine (1) which monthly temperatures influence flowering and seed dispersal times; (2) species' phenological sensitivity to temperature; and (3) whether flowering or seed dispersal times have advanced over the past 120 years. We tested this at different spatial scales and compared the sensitivity in different regions of Nunavut. Broadly speaking, this research serves as a proof of concept to assess whether phenology-climate change studies using historic data can be conducted at large spatial scales. Flowering times and seed dispersal time were most strongly correlated with June and July temperatures, respectively. Seed dispersal times have advanced at double the rate of flowering times over the past 120 years, reflecting greater late-summer temperature rises in Nunavut. There is great diversity in the flowering time sensitivity to temperature of Arctic plant species, suggesting climate change implications for Arctic ecological communities, including altered community composition, competition, and pollinator interactions. Intraspecific temperature sensitivity and warming trends varied markedly across Nunavut and could result in greater changes in some parts of Nunavut than in others.

Increased variance in temperature and lag effects alter phenological responses to rapid warming in a subarctic plant community

Summer temperature on the Cape Churchill Peninsula (Manitoba, Canada) has increased rapidly over the past 75 years, and flowering phenology of the plant community is advanced in years with warmer temperatures (higher cumulative growing degree days). Despite this, there has been no overall shift in flowering phenology over this period. However, climate change has also resulted in increased interannual variation in temperature; if relationships between phenology and temperature are not linear, an increase in temperature variance may interact with an increase in the mean to alter how community phenology changes over time. In our system, the relationship between phenology and temperature was log-linear, resulting in a steeper slope at the cold end of the temperature spectrum than at the warm end. Because below-average temperatures had a greater impact on phenology than above-average temperatures, the long-term advance in phenology was reduced. In addition, flowering phenology in a given year was delayed if summer temperatures were high the previous year or 2 years earlier (lag effects), further reducing the expected advance over time. Phenology of early-flowering plants was negatively affected only by temperatures in the previous year, and that of late-flowering plants primarily by temperatures 2 years earlier. Subarctic plants develop leaf primordia one or more years prior to flowering (preformation); these results suggest that temperature affects the development of flower primordia during this preformation period. Together, increased variance in temperature and lag effects interacted with a changing mean to reduce the expected phenological advance by 94%, a magnitude large enough to account for our inability to detect a significant advance over time. We conclude that changes in temperature variability and lag effects can alter trends in plant responses to a warming climate and that predictions for changes in plant phenology under future warming scenarios should incorporate such effects.

Emerging New Crop Pests: Ecological Modelling and Analysis of the South American Potato Psyllid Russelliana solanicola (Hemiptera: Psylloidea) and Its Wild Relatives

Food security is threatened by newly emerging pests with increased invasive potential accelerated through globalization. The Neotropical jumping plant louse Russelliana solanicola Tuthill is currently a localized potato pest and probable vector of plant pathogens. It is an unusually polyphagous species and is widely distributed in and along the Andes. To date, introductions have been detected in eastern Argentina, southern Brazil and Uruguay. Species distribution models (SDMs) and trait comparisons based on contemporary and historical collections are used to estimate the potential spread of R. solanicola worldwide. We also extend our analyses to all described species in the genus Russelliana in order to assess the value of looking beyond pest species to predict pest spread. We investigate the extent to which data on geographical range and environmental niche can be effectively extracted from museum collections for comparative analyses of pest and non-pest species in Russelliana. Our results indicate that R. solanicola has potential for invasion in many parts of the world with suitable environmental conditions that currently have or are anticipated to increase potato cultivation. Large geographical ranges are characteristic of a morphological subgeneric taxon group that includes R. solanicola; this same group also has a larger environmental breadth than other groups within the genus. Ecological modelling using museum collections provides a useful tool for identifying emerging pests and developing integrated pest management programs.

Retrospective analysis of heavy metal contamination in Rhode Island based on old and new herbarium specimens

PREMISE OF THE STUDY

Herbarium specimens may provide a record of past environmental conditions, including heavy metal pollution. To explore this potential, we compared concentrations of copper, lead, and zinc in historical and new collections from four sites in Rhode Island, USA.

METHODS

We compared historical specimens (1846 to 1916) to congener specimens collected in 2015 at three former industrial sites in Providence, Rhode Island, and one nonindustrial site on Block Island. Leaf material was prepared by UltraWAVE SRC Microwave Digestion, and heavy metal concentrations were measured by inductively coupled plasma-atomic emission spectroscopy.

RESULTS

Heavy metal concentrations in the historical and new specimens were measurable for all elements tested, and levels of copper and zinc were comparable in the historical and 2015 collections. By contrast, the concentration of lead declined at all sites over time. Significant variability in heavy metal concentration was observed between taxa, reflecting their varied potential for elemental accumulation.

DISCUSSION

It seems clear that herbarium specimens can be used to evaluate past levels of pollution and assess local environmental changes. With careful sampling effort, these specimens can be a valuable part of environmental science research. Broadening the possible applications for herbarium collections in this way increases their relevance in an era of reduced funding for collections-based research.