Rapid growth of the US wildland-urban interface raises wildfire risk

Next-gen regional fire risk mapping: Integrating hyperspectral imagery and National Forest Inventory data to identify hot-spot wildland-urban interfaces

The increasing threat of high-severity wildfires in Mediterranean Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) areas demands to develop effective fire risk assessment and management strategies. Simultaneously, the newfound accessibility of spaceborne hyperspectral data represents a significant potential for generating fire severity assessments, whereas National Forest Inventories (NFI) offer a vast dataset related to vegetation and fuel loads, which is essential for shaping the planning and strategies of forest services. This research work aims to advance the state-of-the-art in WUI fire risk mapping in the western Mediterranean Basin by combining PRISMA spaceborne hyperspectral data and Spanish NFI data. The proposed methodology had three main stages: (i) fire severity assessment at local scale (a wildfire) by using PRISMA hyperspectral data and Multi-Endmember Spectral Mixture Analysis (MESMA) leveraging field-based measurements of the Composite Burn Index (70 plots); (ii) development of a high fire severity probability map at regional scale from the extrapolation of a Random Forest predictive model calibrated from fire severity estimates, NFI data and topo-climatic variables at local scale (overall accuracy = 92 %; Kappa = 0.8); and (iii) identification and characterization of zones that concentrate WUIs with high probability of high fire severity if a fire event occurs (hot-spot WUIs) by crossing the information from the previous regional high fire severity probability map and a WUI cartography developed at regional scale. Study area was Castilla y León Autonomous Region (larger Spanish region, 94,226 km2), where the second-largest extreme Spanish wildfire event (28,000 ha) occurred. We identified hot-spot WUIs so that stakeholders and decision-makers could (i) prioritize resources and interventions for effective fire management and mitigation, (ii) allocate resources for prevention, and (iii) plan evacuation measures to safeguard lives and property. This study contributes to the development of next-generation fire risk assessment methods that combine remote sensing technologies with comprehensive ground-level datasets.

Mortality attributable to PM2.5 from wildland fires in California from 2008 to 2018

In California, wildfire risk and severity have grown substantially in the last several decades. Research has characterized extensive adverse health impacts from exposure to wildfire-attributable fine particulate matter (PM2.5), but few studies have quantified long-term outcomes, and none have used a wildfire-specific chronic dose-response mortality coefficient. Here, we quantified the mortality burden for PM2.5 exposure from California fires from 2008 to 2018 using Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system wildland fire PM2.5 estimates. We used a concentration-response function for PM2.5, applying ZIP code-level mortality data and an estimated wildfire-specific dose-response coefficient accounting for the likely toxicity of wildfire smoke. We estimate a total of 52,480 to 55,710 premature deaths are attributable to wildland fire PM2.5 over the 11-year period with respect to two exposure scenarios, equating to an economic impact of $432 to $456 billion. These findings extend evidence on climate-related health impacts, suggesting that wildfires account for a greater mortality and economic burden than indicated by earlier studies.

The relational shift in urban ecology: From place and structures to multiple modes of coproduction for positive urban futures

This perspective emerged from ongoing dialogue among ecologists initiated by a virtual workshop in 2021. A transdisciplinary group of researchers and practitioners conclude that urban ecology as a science can better contribute to positive futures by focusing on relationships, rather than prioritizing urban structures. Insights from other relational disciplines, such as political ecology, governance, urban design, and conservation also contribute. Relationality is especially powerful given the need to rapidly adapt to the changing social and biophysical drivers of global urban systems. These unprecedented dynamics are better understood through a relational lens than traditional structural questions. We use three kinds of coproduction-of the social-ecological world, of science, and of actionable knowledge-to identify key processes of coproduction within urban places. Connectivity is crucial to relational urban ecology. Eight themes emerge from the joint explorations of the paper and point toward social action for improving life and environment in urban futures.

Revisiting the Landscape Mosaic model

The landscape mosaic model quantifies and maps the spatial juxtaposition of different land uses. It provides a landscape perspective of anthropic threats posed by agriculture and urban development, and the spatial-temporal shifting of the landscape mosaic indicates landscapes where anthropic intensity has changed. We use the U.S. Geological Survey provided National Land Cover Database (NLCD) for the years 2001 and 2021 to derive the landscape mosaic at five analysis scales. To improve earlier implementations of the model, we introduce the heatmap, a flexible scheme providing more thematic reporting opportunities and allowing for better quantitative summary reporting across analysis scales as well as for temporal trends. The results are exemplified at regional scale for the Atlanta metropolitan area. We use the improved model to investigate the land cover context over time and at different analysis scales and show how custom color tables detail different thematic features of the landscape mosaic, including the degree and change of anthropic intensity. We conclude with a discussion of potential applications in ecology, landscape planning, and restoration to illustrate the benefits of the revised landscape mosaic model. All assessment tools are now available in open-source software packages.

Wildfire Ashes from the Wildland-Urban Interface Alter Vibrio vulnificus Growth and Gene Expression

Climate change-induced stressors are contributing to the emergence of infectious diseases, including those caused by marine bacterial pathogens such as Vibrio spp. These stressors alter Vibrio temporal and geographical distribution, resulting in increased spread, exposure, and infection rates, thus facilitating greater Vibrio-human interactions. Concurrently, wildfires are increasing in size, severity, frequency, and spread in the built environment due to climate change, resulting in the emission of contaminants of emerging concern. This study aimed to understand the potential effects of urban interface wildfire ashes on Vibrio vulnificus (V. vulnificus) growth and gene expression using transcriptomic approaches. V. vulnificus was exposed to structural and vegetation ashes and analyzed to identify differentially expressed genes using the HTSeq-DESeq2 strategy. Exposure to wildfire ash altered V. vulnificus growth and gene expression, depending on the trace metal composition of the ash. The high Fe content of the vegetation ash enhanced bacterial growth, while the high Cu, As, and Cr content of the structural ash suppressed growth. Additionally, the overall pattern of upregulated genes and pathways suggests increased virulence potential due to the selection of metal- and antibiotic-resistant strains. Therefore, mixed fire ashes transported and deposited into coastal zones may lead to the selection of environmental reservoirs of Vibrio strains with enhanced antibiotic resistance profiles, increasing public health risk.

Anthropogenic warming is a key climate indicator of rising urban fire activity in China

China, one of the most populous countries in the world, has suffered the highest number of natural disaster-related deaths from fire. On local scales, the main causes of urban fires are anthropogenic in nature. Yet, on regional to national scales, little is known about the indicators of large-scale co-varying urban fire activity in China. Here, we present the China Fire History Atlas (CFHA), which is based on 19 947 documentary records and represents fires in urban areas of China over the twentieth century (1901-1994). We found that temperature variability is a key indicator of urban fire activity in China, with warmer temperatures being correlated with more urban fires, and that this fire-temperature relationship is seasonally and regionally explicit. In the early twentieth century, however, the fire-temperature relationship was overruled by war-related fires in large urban areas. We further used the fire-temperature relationship and multiple emissions scenarios to project fire activity across China into the twenty-first century. Our projections show a distinct increase in future urban fire activity and fire-related economic loss. Our findings provide insights into fire-climate relationships in China for densely-populated areas and on policy-relevant time scales and they contribute spatial coverage to efforts to improve global fire models.

Burn pit-related smoke causes developmental and behavioral toxicity in zebrafish: Influence of material type and emissions chemistry

Combustion of mixed materials during open air burning of refuse or structural fires in the wildland urban interface produces emissions that worsen air quality, contaminate rivers and streams, and cause poor health outcomes including developmental effects. The zebrafish, a freshwater fish, is a useful model for quickly screening the toxicological and developmental effects of agents in such species and elicits biological responses that are often analogous and predictive of responses in mammals. The purpose of this study was to compare the developmental toxicity of smoke derived from the burning of 5 different burn pit-related material types (plywood, cardboard, plastic, a mixture of the three, and the mixture plus diesel fuel as an accelerant) in zebrafish larvae. Larvae were exposed to organic extracts of increasing concentrations of each smoke 6-to-8-hr post fertilization and assessed for morphological and behavioral toxicity at 5 days post fertilization. To examine chemical and biological determinants of toxicity, responses were related to emissions concentrations of polycyclic hydrocarbons (PAH). Emissions from plastic and the mixture containing plastic caused the most pronounced developmental effects, including mortality, impaired swim bladder inflation, pericardial edema, spinal curvature, tail kinks, and/or craniofacial deformities, although all extracts caused concentration-dependent effects. Plywood, by contrast, altered locomotor responsiveness to light changes to the greatest extent. Some morphological and behavioral responses correlated strongly with smoke extract levels of PAHs including 9-fluorenone. Overall, the findings suggest that material type and emissions chemistry impact the severity of zebrafish developmental toxicity responses to burn pit-related smoke.

Wildfires and climate justice: future wildfire events predicted to disproportionally impact socioeconomically vulnerable communities in North Carolina

Wildfire events are becoming increasingly common across many areas of the United States, including North Carolina (NC). Wildfires can cause immediate damage to properties, and wildfire smoke conditions can harm the overall health of exposed communities. It is critical to identify communities at increased risk of wildfire events, particularly in areas with that have sociodemographic disparities and low socioeconomic status (SES) that may exacerbate incurred impacts of wildfire events. This study set out to: (1) characterize the distribution of wildfire risk across NC; (2) implement integrative cluster analyses to identify regions that contain communities with increased vulnerability to the impacts of wildfire events due to sociodemographic characteristics; (3) provide summary-level statistics of populations with highest wildfire risk, highlighting SES and housing cost factors; and (4) disseminate wildfire risk information via our online web application, ENVIROSCAN. Wildfire hazard potential (WHP) indices were organized at the census tract-level, and distributions were analyzed for spatial autocorrelation via global and local Moran's tests. Sociodemographic characteristics were analyzed via k-means analysis to identify clusters with distinct SES patterns to characterize regions of similar sociodemographic/socioeconomic disparities. These SES groupings were overlayed with housing and wildfire risk profiles to establish patterns of risk across NC. Resulting geospatial analyses identified areas largely in Southeastern NC with high risk of wildfires that were significantly correlated with neighboring regions with high WHP, highlighting adjacent regions of high risk for future wildfire events. Cluster-based analysis of SES factors resulted in three groups of regions categorized through distinct SES profiling; two of these clusters (Clusters 2 and 3) contained indicators of high SES vulnerability. Cluster 2 contained a higher percentage of younger (<5 years), non-white, Hispanic and/or Latino residents; while Cluster 3 had the highest mean WHP and was characterized by a higher percentage of non-white residents, poverty, and less than a high school education. Counties of particular SES and WHP-combined vulnerability include those with majority non-white residents, tribal communities, and below poverty level households largely located in Southeastern NC. WHP values per census tract were dispersed to the public via the ENVIROSCAN application, alongside other environmentally-relevant data.

Evidence of increasing wildfire damage with decreasing property price in Southern California fires

Across the Western United States, human development into the wildland urban interface (WUI) is contributing to increasing wildfire damage. Given that natural disasters often cause greater harm within socio-economically vulnerable groups, research is needed to explore the potential for disproportionate impacts associated with wildfire. Using Zillow Transaction and Assessment Database (ZTRAX), hereafter "Zillow", real estate data, we explored whether lower-priced structures were more likely to be damaged during the most destructive, recent wildfires in Southern California. Within fire perimeters occurring from 2000-2019, we matched property price data to burned and unburned structures. To be included in the final dataset, fire perimeters had to surround at least 25 burned and 25 unburned structures and have been sold at most seven years before the fire; five fires fit these criteria. We found evidence to support our hypothesis that lower-priced properties were more likely to be damaged, however, the likelihood of damage and the influence of property value significantly varied across individual fire perimeters. When considering fires individually, properties within two 2003 fires-the Cedar and Grand Prix-Old Fires-had statistically significantly decreasing burn damage with increasing property value. Occurring in 2007 and later, the other three fires (Witch-Poomacha, Thomas, and Woolsey) showed no significant relationship between price and damage. Consistent with other studies, topographic position, slope, elevation, and vegetation were also significantly associated with the likelihood of a structure being damaged during the wildfire. Driving time to the nearest fire station and previously identified fire hazard were also significant. Our results suggest that further studies on the extent and reason for disproportionate impacts of wildfire are needed. In the meantime, decision makers should consider allocating wildfire risk mitigation resources-such as fire-fighting and wildfire structural preparedness resources-to more socioeconomically vulnerable neighborhoods.

Wildland-urban interface wildfire increases metal contributions to stormwater runoff in Paradise, California

The 2018 Camp Fire was a large late-year (November) wildfire that produced an urban firestorm in the Town of Paradise, California, USA, and destroyed more than 18 000 structures. Runoff from burned wildland areas is known to contain ash, which can transport contaminants including metals into nearby watersheds. However, due to historically infrequent occurrences, the effect of wildland-urban interface (WUI) fires, such as the Camp Fire, on surface water quality has not been well-characterized. Therefore, this study investigated the effects of widespread urban burning on surface water quality in major watersheds of the Camp Fire area. Between November 2018 and May 2019, 140 surface water samples were collected, including baseflow and stormflow, from burned and unburned watersheds with varying extent of urban development. Samples were analyzed for total and filter-passing metals, dissolved organic carbon, major anions, and total suspended solids. Ash and debris from the Camp Fire contributed metals to downstream watersheds via runoff throughout the storm season. Increases in concentration up to 200-fold were found for metals Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, and Zn in burned watersheds compared to pre-fire values. Total concentrations of Al, Cd, Cu, Pb, and Zn exceeded EPA aquatic habitat acute criteria by up to 16-fold for up to five months after the fire. To assess possible transport mechanisms and bioavailability, a subset of 18 samples was analyzed using four filters with nominal pore sizes ranging from 0.22 to 1.2 μm to determine the particulate size distribution of metals. Trace and major metals (Al, Ba, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Hg, Mn, Ni, Pb, and Zn) were found mostly associated with larger grain sizes (>0.45 μm), and some metals (Al, Cr, Fe, and Pb) also included a substantial colloidal phase (0.22 to 0.45 μm). This study suggests that fires in the wildland-urban interface increase metal concentrations, mainly through particulate driven transport. The metals with the largest increases are likely from anthropogenic disaster materials, though biomass ash also is a major contributor to water quality. The increase in metals following WUI burning may have adverse ecological impacts.

Satellite-based aerosol optical depth estimates over the continental U.S. during the 2020 wildfire season: Roles of smoke and land cover

Wildfires produce smoke that can affect an area >1000 times the burn extent, with far-reaching human health, ecologic, and economic impacts. Accurately estimating aerosol load within smoke plumes is therefore crucial for understanding and mitigating these impacts. We evaluated the effectiveness of the latest Collection 6.1 MODIS Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) algorithm in estimating aerosol optical depth (AOD) across the U.S. during the historic 2020 wildfire season. We compared satellite-based MAIAC AOD to ground-based AERONET AOD measurements during no-, light-, medium-, and heavy-smoke conditions identified using the Hazard Mapping System Fire and Smoke Product. This smoke product consists of maximum extent smoke polygons digitized by analysts using visible band imagery and classified according to smoke density. We also examined the strength of the correlations between satellite- and ground-based AOD for major land cover types under various smoke density levels. MAIAC performed well in estimating AOD during smoke-affected conditions. Correlations between MAIAC and AERONET AOD were strong for medium- (r = 0.91) and heavy-smoke (r = 0.90) density, and MAIAC estimates of AOD showed little bias relative to ground-based AERONET measurements (normalized mean bias = 3 % for medium, 5 % for heavy smoke). During two high AOD, heavy smoke episodes, MAIAC underestimated ground-based AERONET AOD under mixed aerosol (i.e., smoke and dust; median bias = -0.08) and overestimated AOD under smoke-dominated (median bias = 0.02) aerosol. MAIAC most overestimated ground-based AERONET AOD over barren land (mean NMB = 48 %). Our findings indicate that MODIS MAIAC can provide robust estimates of AOD as smoke density increases in coming years. Increased frequency of mixed aerosol and expansion of developed land could affect the performance of the MAIAC algorithm in the future, however, with implications for evaluating wildfire-associated health and welfare effects and air quality standards.

"Air That Once Was Breath" Part 2: Wildfire Smoke and Airway Disease - "Climate Change, Allergy and Immunology" Special IAAI Article Collection: Collegium Internationale Allergologicum Update 2023

BACKGROUND

Population growth and climate change have led to more frequent and larger wildfires, increasing the exposure of individuals to wildfire smoke. Notably, asthma exacerbations and allergic airway sensitization are prominent outcomes of such exposure.

SUMMARY

Key research questions relate to determining the precise impact on individuals with asthma, including the severity, duration, and long-term consequences of exacerbations. Identifying specific risk factors contributing to vulnerability, such as age, genetics, comorbidities, or environmental factors, is crucial. Additionally, reliable biomarkers for predicting severe exacerbations need exploration. Understanding the long-term health effects of repeated wildfire smoke exposures in individuals with asthma and addressing healthcare disparities are important research areas.

KEY MESSAGES

This review discusses the need for comprehensive research efforts to better grasp wildfire smoke-induced respiratory health, particularly in vulnerable populations such as farmworkers, firefighters, pregnant women, children, the elderly, and marginalized communities. Effective mitigation would require addressing the current limitations we face by supporting research aimed at a better understanding of wildfire smoke-induced airway disease.

Determination of Soil Contamination at the Wildland-Urban Interface after the 2021 Marshall Fire in Colorado, USA

Wildfires at the wildland-urban interface (WUI) are increasingly common. The impacts of such events are likely distinct from those that occur strictly in wildland areas, as we would expect an elevated likelihood of soil contamination due to the combustion of anthropogenic materials. We evaluated the impacts of a wildfire at the WUI on soil contamination, sampling soils from residential and nonresidential areas located inside and outside the perimeter of the 2021 Marshall Fire in Colorado, USA. We found that fire-affected residential properties had elevated concentrations of some heavy metals (including Zn, Cu, Cr, and Pb), but the concentrations were still below levels of likely concern, and we observed no corresponding increases in concentrations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). The postfire increases in metal concentrations were not generally observed in the nonresidential soils, highlighting the importance of combustion of anthropogenic materials for potential soil contamination from wildfires at the WUI. While soil contamination from the 2021 Marshall Fire was lower than expected, and likely below the threshold of concern for human health, our study highlights some of the challenges that need to be considered when assessing soil contamination after such fires.

Emotion, Fact, and Anthropogenic Disturbances: Undergraduate Attitudes Toward Wildfire and Urbanization after a Brief Intervention

Understanding attitudes towards anthropogenic disturbances, especially among undergraduates, is important to inform educational practices because of the theoretical link between attitude and behavior. We evaluated the attitudes of undergraduate students in a biology majors course and nonmajors course toward two anthropogenic disturbances: wildfire and urbanization. Student attitudes were assessed via an online Wildfire and Urbanization Attitude survey (WUAS) before and after a video intervention, randomly delivered as either fact- or emotion-based versions. Student beliefs regarding wildfire and urbanization were positively correlated with their general intention to act toward environmental issues on both pre- and postintervention surveys, as suggested by theory. Student belief that urbanization was bad for the environment increased from pre- to postintervention. However, beliefs and intention to act did not statistically differ between majors/nonmajors or intervention video type. This study hints that brief interventions can impact student disturbance beliefs, but more research is needed to guide curriculum development. Despite some research suggesting the value of emotion to inspire climate action, our results suggest that more work needs to be done regarding the value of emotion to increase environmental action toward other anthropogenic disturbances.

Mapping multiscale breeding bird species distributions across the United States and evaluating their conservation applications

Species distribution models are vital to management decisions that require understanding habitat use patterns, particularly for species of conservation concern. However, the production of distribution maps for individual species is often hampered by data scarcity, and existing species maps are rarely spatially validated due to limited occurrence data. Furthermore, community-level maps based on stacked species distribution models lack important community assemblage information (e.g., competitive exclusion) relevant to conservation. Thus, multispecies, guild, or community models are often used in conservation practice instead. To address these limitations, we aimed to generate fine-scale, spatially continuous, nationwide maps for species represented in the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) between 1992 and 2019. We developed ensemble models for each species at three spatial resolutions-0.5, 2.5, and 5 km-across the conterminous United States. We also compared species richness patterns from stacked single-species models with those of 19 functional guilds developed using the same data to assess the similarity between predictions. We successfully modeled 192 bird species at 5-km resolution, 160 species at 2.5-km resolution, and 80 species at 0.5-km resolution. However, the species we could model represent only 28%-56% of species found in the conterminous US BBSs across resolutions owing to data limitations. We found that stacked maps and guild maps generally had high correlations across resolutions (median = 84%), but spatial agreement varied regionally by resolution and was most pronounced between the East and West at the 5-km resolution. The spatial differences between our stacked maps and guild maps illustrate the importance of spatial validation in conservation planning. Overall, our species maps are useful for single-species conservation and can support fine-scale decision-making across the United States and support community-level conservation when used in tandem with guild maps. However, there remain data scarcity issues for many species of conservation concern when using the BBS for single-species models.

Upper limits for post-wildfire floods and distinction from debris flows

Upper magnitude limits and scaling with basin size for post-wildfire floods are unknown. An envelope curve was estimated defining post-wildfire flood upper limits as a function of basin area. We show the importance of separating peak flows by floods versus debris flows. Post-wildfire flood maxima are a constant 43 m3 s-1 km-2 for basins from 0.01 to 23 to 34 km2 and then declining with added basin area according to a power law relation. Intense rainfall spatial scaling may cause the envelope curve threshold at 23 to 34 km2. Post-wildfire flood maxima are smaller than unburned flood maxima for similar basin area. Rainstorm comparisons indicate that post-wildfire floods are triggered by smaller precipitation depths than unburned floods. Post-wildfire exceptional floods are driven by extreme rainfall rates, in contrast to post-wildfire debris flows. Runoff rates for post-wildfire envelope floods are consistent with infiltration-excess runoff. Future increases in precipitation intensity or wildfire frequency and extent could increase post-wildfire flood upper limits.

Measuring long-term exposure to wildfire PM2.5 in California: Time-varying inequities in environmental burden

Wildfires have become more frequent and intense due to climate change and outdoor wildfire fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations differ from relatively smoothly varying total PM2.5. Thus, we introduced a conceptual model for computing long-term wildfire PM2.5 and assessed disproportionate exposures among marginalized communities. We used monitoring data and statistical techniques to characterize annual wildfire PM2.5 exposure based on intermittent and extreme daily wildfire PM2.5 concentrations in California census tracts (2006 to 2020). Metrics included: 1) weeks with wildfire PM2.5 < 5 μg/m3; 2) days with non-zero wildfire PM2.5; 3) mean wildfire PM2.5 during peak exposure week; 4) smoke waves (≥2 consecutive days with <15 μg/m3 wildfire PM2.5); and 5) mean annual wildfire PM2.5 concentration. We classified tracts by their racial/ethnic composition and CalEnviroScreen (CES) score, an environmental and social vulnerability composite measure. We examined associations of CES and racial/ethnic composition with the wildfire PM2.5 metrics using mixed-effects models. Averaged 2006 to 2020, we detected little difference in exposure by CES score or racial/ethnic composition, except for non-Hispanic American Indian and Alaska Native populations, where a 1-SD increase was associated with higher exposure for 4/5 metrics. CES or racial/ethnic × year interaction term models revealed exposure disparities in some years. Compared to their California-wide representation, the exposed populations of non-Hispanic American Indian and Alaska Native (1.68×, 95% CI: 1.01 to 2.81), white (1.13×, 95% CI: 0.99 to 1.32), and multiracial (1.06×, 95% CI: 0.97 to 1.23) people were over-represented from 2006 to 2020. In conclusion, during our study period in California, we detected disproportionate long-term wildfire PM2.5 exposure for several racial/ethnic groups.

Fuel types misrepresent forest structure and composition in interior British Columbia: a way forward

Background

A clear understanding of the connectivity, structure, and composition of wildland fuels is essential for effective wildfire management. However, fuel typing and mapping are challenging owing to a broad diversity of fuel conditions and their spatial and temporal heterogeneity. In Canada, fuel types and potential fire behavior are characterized using the Fire Behavior Prediction (FBP) System, which uses an association approach to categorize vegetation into 16 fuel types based on stand structure and composition. In British Columbia (BC), provincial and national FBP System fuel type maps are derived from remotely sensed forest inventory data and are widely used for wildfire operations, fuel management, and scientific research. Despite their widespread usage, the accuracy and applicability of these fuel type maps have not been formally assessed. To address this knowledge gap, we quantified the agreement between on-site assessments and provincial and national fuel type maps in interior BC.

Results

We consistently found poor correspondence between field assessment data and both provincial and national fuel types. Mismatches were particularly frequent for (i) dry interior ecosystems, (ii) mixedwood and deciduous fuel types, and (iii) post-harvesting conditions. For 58% of field plots, there was no suitable match to the extant fuel structure and composition. Mismatches were driven by the accuracy and availability of forest inventory data and low applicability of the Canadian FBP System to interior BC fuels.

Conclusions

The fuel typing mismatches we identified can limit scientific research, but also challenge wildfire operations and fuel management decisions. Improving fuel typing accuracy will require a significant effort in fuel inventory data and system upgrades to adequately represent the diversity of extant fuels. To more effectively link conditions to expected fire behavior outcomes, we recommend a fuel classification approach and emphasis on observed fuels and measured fire behavior data for the systems we seek to represent.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s42408-024-00249-z.

Quantification of Bioaccessible and Environmentally Relevant Trace Metals in Structure Ash from a Wildland-Urban Interface Fire

Wildfires at the wildland-urban interface (WUI) are increasing in frequency and intensity, driven by climate change and anthropogenic ignitions. Few studies have characterized the variability in the metal content in ash generated from burned structures in order to determine the potential risk to human and environmental health. Using inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectroscopy (ICP-OES) and inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS), we analyzed leachable trace metal concentration in soils and ash from structures burned by the Marshall Fire, a WUI fire that destroyed over 1000 structures in Boulder County, Colorado. Acid digestion revealed that ash derived from structures contained 22 times more Cu and 3 times more Pb on average than surrounding soils on a mg/kg basis. Ash liberated 12 times more Ni (mg/kg) and twice as much Cr (mg/kg) as soils in a water leach. By comparing the amount of acid-extractable metals to that released by water and simulated epithelial lung fluid (SELF), we estimated their potential for environmental mobility and human bioaccessibility. The SELF leach showed that Cu and Ni were more bioaccessible (mg of leachable metal/mg of acid-extractable metal) in ash than in soils. These results suggest that structure ash is an important source of trace metals that can negatively impact the health of both humans and the environment.

The Impact of Climate Change on Global Oncology

Climate change is the greatest threat to human health of our time, with significant implications for global cancer control efforts. The changing frequency and behavior of climate-driven extreme weather events results in more frequent and increasingly unanticipated disruptions in access to cancer care. Given the significant threat that climate change poses to cancer control efforts, oncology professionals should champion initiatives that help protect the health and safety of patients with cancer, such as enhancing emergency preparedness and response efforts and reducing emissions from our own professional activities, which has health cobenefits for the entire population.

Multiple social and environmental factors affect wildland fire response of full or less-than-full suppression

Wildland fire incident commanders make wildfire response decisions within an increasingly complex socio-environmental context. Threats to human safety and property, along with public pressures and agency cultures, often lead commanders to emphasize full suppression. However, commanders may use less-than-full suppression to enhance responder safety, reduce firefighting costs, and encourage beneficial effects of fire. This study asks: what management, socioeconomic, environmental, and fire behavior characteristics are associated with full suppression and the less-than-full suppression methods of point-zone protection, confinement/containment, and maintain/monitor? We analyzed incident report data from 374 wildfires in the United States northern Rocky Mountains between 2008 and 2013. Regression models showed that full suppression was most strongly associated with higher housing density and earlier dates in the calendar year, along with non-federal land jurisdiction, regional and national incident management teams, human-caused ignitions, low fire-growth potential, and greater fire size. Interviews with commanders provided decision-making context for these regression results. Future efforts to encourage less-than-full suppression should address the complex management context, in addition to the biophysical context, of fire response.

WindCline: Sloping wind tunnel for characterizing flame behavior under variable inclines and wind conditions

Developing accurate computational models of wildfire dynamics is increasingly important due to the substantial and expanding negative impacts of wildfire events on human health, infrastructure, and the environment. Wildfire spread and emissions depend on a number of factors, including fuel type, environmental conditions (moisture, wind speed, etc.), and terrain/location. However, there currently exist only a few experimental facilities that enable testing of the interplay of these factors at length scales <1 m with carefully controlled and characterized boundary conditions and advanced diagnostics. Experiments performed at such facilities are required for informing and validating computational models. Here, we present the design and characterization of a tilting wind tunnel (the "WindCline") for studying wildfire dynamics. The WindCline is unique in that the entire tunnel platform is constructed to pivot around a central axis, which enables the sloping of the entire system without compromising the quality of the flow properties. In addition, this facility has a configurable design for the test section and diffuser to accommodate a suite of advanced diagnostics to aid in the characterization of (1) the parameters needed to establish boundary conditions and (2) flame properties and dynamics. The WindCline thus allows for the measurement and control of several critical wildfire variables and boundary conditions, especially at the small length scales important to the development of high-fidelity computational simulations (10-100 cm). Computational modeling frameworks developed and validated under these controlled conditions can expand understanding of fundamental combustion processes, promoting greater confidence when leveraging these processes in complex combustion environments.

Role of intrinsic apoptosis in environmental exposure health outcomes

Environmental exposures are linked to diseases of high public health concern, including cancer, neurodegenerative disorders, and autoimmunity. These diseases are caused by excessive or insufficient cell death, prompting investigation of mechanistic links between environmental toxicants and dysregulation of cell death pathways, including apoptosis. This review describes how legacy and emerging environmental exposures target the intrinsic apoptosis pathway to potentially drive pathogenesis. Recent discoveries reveal that dynamic regulation of apoptosis may heighten the vulnerability of healthy tissues to exposures in children, and that apoptotic signaling can guide immune responses, tissue repair, and tumorigenesis. Understanding how environmental toxicants dysregulate apoptosis will uncover opportunities to deploy apoptosis-modulating agents for the treatment or prevention of exposure-linked diseases.

Advancing the community health vulnerability index for wildland fire smoke exposure

Wildland fire smoke risks are not uniformly distributed across people and places, and the most vulnerable communities are often disproportionately impacted. This study develops a county level community health vulnerability index (CHVI) for the Contiguous United States (CONUS) using three major vulnerability components: adaptive capacity, sensitivity, and exposure at the national and regional level. We first calculated sensitivity and adaptive capacity sub-indices using nine sensitivity and twenty adaptive capacity variables. These sub-indices were then combined with an exposure sub-index, which is based on the Community Multiscale Air Quality data (2008-2018), to develop CHVI. Finally, we conducted several analyses with the derived indices to: 1) explore associations between the level of fine particulate matter from wildland fires (fire-PM2.5) and the sub-indices/CHVI; 2) measure the impact of fire-PM2.5 on the increase in the annual number of days with 12-35 μg/m3 (moderate) and >35 μg/m3 (at or above unhealthy for sensitive groups) based on the US EPA Air Quality Index categories, and 3) calculate population size in different deciles of the sub-indices/CHVI. This study has three main findings. First, we showed that the counties with higher daily fire-PM2.5 concentration tend to have lower adaptive capacity and higher sensitivity and vulnerability. Relatedly, the counties at high risk tended to experience a greater increase in the annual number of days with 12-35 μg/m3 and >35 μg/m3 than their counterparts. Second, we found that 16.1, 12.0, and 17.6 million people out of 332 million in CONUS reside in the counties in the lowest adaptive capacity decile, highest sensitivity decile, and highest vulnerability decile, respectively. Third, we identified that the US Northwest, California, and Southern regions tended to have higher vulnerability than others. Accurately identifying a community's vulnerability to wildfire smoke can help individuals, researchers, and policymakers better understand, prepare for, and respond to future wildland fire events.

Integrating climate change induced flood risk into future population projections

Flood exposure has been linked to shifts in population sizes and composition. Traditionally, these changes have been observed at a local level providing insight to local dynamics but not general trends, or at a coarse resolution that does not capture localized shifts. Using historic flood data between 2000-2023 across the Contiguous United States (CONUS), we identify the relationships between flood exposure and population change. We demonstrate that observed declines in population are statistically associated with higher levels of historic flood exposure, which may be subsequently coupled with future population projections. Several locations have already begun to see population responses to observed flood exposure and are forecasted to have decreased future growth rates as a result. Finally, we find that exposure to high frequency flooding (5 and 20-year return periods) results in 2-7% lower growth rates than baseline projections. This is exacerbated in areas with relatively high exposure to frequent flooding where growth is expected to decline over the next 30 years.

Using high-resolution land cover data to assess structure loss in the 2018 Woolsey Fire in Southern California

There are growing concerns about increases in the size, frequency, and destructiveness of wildfire events. One commonly used mitigation strategy is the creation and maintenance of defensible space, a zone around buildings where vegetation is managed to increase potential for structures to survive during wildfires. Despite widespread acceptance and advocacy of defensible space, few studies provide empirical evidence documenting the efficacy of different fuel modification practices under real wildfire conditions. The 2018 Woolsey Fire in Los Angeles County, California, occurred a short time after high-resolution (0.07 m2) land cover data were created, providing a unique opportunity to quantify vegetation before the fire. We integrated measurements from this high-resolution land cover data with parcel data, building attributes, and environmental context. We then used Random Forests models to analyze the extent to which these factors predicted structure loss in the wildfire. Variable importance scores showed vegetation around buildings was not a strong predictor of building-level damage outcomes compared to building materials and landscape features such as paved land cover per parcel, elevation, building density, and distance to road networks. Among building materials, multi-paned windows and enclosed eaves were most highly associated with building survival. These results are consistent with other studies that conclude building materials and environmental context are more related to survivorship than defensible space.

Rising wildfire risk to houses in the United States, especially in grasslands and shrublands

Wildfire risks to homes are increasing, especially in the wildland-urban interface (WUI), where wildland vegetation and houses are in close proximity. Notably, we found that more houses are exposed to and destroyed by grassland and shrubland fires than by forest fires in the United States. Destruction was more likely in forest fires, but they burned less WUI. The number of houses within wildfire perimeters has doubled since the 1990s because of both housing growth (47% of additionally exposed houses) and more burned area (53%). Most exposed houses were in the WUI, which grew substantially during the 2010s (2.6 million new WUI houses), albeit not as rapidly as before. Any WUI growth increases wildfire risk to houses though, and more fires increase the risk to existing WUI houses.

Protecting vulnerable patient populations from climate hazards: the role of the nation's cancer centers

Individuals diagnosed with cancer are a vulnerable population during disasters. Emergency preparedness efforts are crucial for meeting the health and safety needs of patients, health-care professionals, health-care facilities, and communities before, during, and after a disaster. Recognizing the importance of advancing emergency preparedness expertise to cancer control efforts nationwide, especially in the era of climate change, we searched National Cancer Institute-designated cancer centers' websites to examine emergency preparedness information sharing and evidence of research efforts focused on disaster preparedness. Of 71 centers, 56 (78.9%) presented some emergency preparedness information, and 36 (50.7%) presented information specific to individuals diagnosed with cancer. Only 17 (23.9%) centers provided emergency preparedness information for climate-driven disasters. Informed by these data, this commentary describes an opportunity for cancer centers to lead knowledge advancement on an important aspect of climate change adaptation: disaster preparedness.

The persistence of smoke VOCs indoors: Partitioning, surface cleaning, and air cleaning in a smoke-contaminated house

Wildfires are increasing in frequency, raising concerns that smoke can permeate indoor environments and expose people to chemical air contaminants. To study smoke transformations in indoor environments and evaluate mitigation strategies, we added smoke to a test house. Many volatile organic compounds (VOCs) persisted days following the smoke injection, providing a longer-term exposure pathway for humans. Two time scales control smoke VOC partitioning: a faster one (1.0 to 5.2 hours) that describes the time to reach equilibrium between adsorption and desorption processes and a slower one (4.8 to 21.2 hours) that describes the time for indoor ventilation to overtake adsorption-desorption equilibria in controlling the air concentration. These rates imply that vapor pressure controls partitioning behavior and that house ventilation plays a minor role in removing smoke VOCs. However, surface cleaning activities (vacuuming, mopping, and dusting) physically removed surface reservoirs and thus reduced indoor smoke VOC concentrations more effectively than portable air cleaners and more persistently than window opening.

Climate change is narrowing and shifting prescribed fire windows in western United States

Escalating wildfire activity in the western United States has accelerated adverse societal impacts. Observed increases in wildfire severity and impacts to communities have diverse anthropogenic causes-including the legacy of fire suppression policies, increased development in high-risk zones, and aridification by a warming climate. However, the intentional use of fire as a vegetation management tool, known as "prescribed fire," can reduce the risk of destructive fires and restore ecosystem resilience. Prescribed fire implementation is subject to multiple constraints, including the number of days characterized by weather and vegetation conditions conducive to achieving desired outcomes. Here, we quantify observed and projected trends in the frequency and seasonality of western United States prescribed fire days. We find that while ~2 C of global warming by 2060 will reduce such days overall (-17%), particularly during spring (-25%) and summer (-31%), winter (+4%) may increasingly emerge as a comparatively favorable window for prescribed fire especially in northern states.

Edible fire buffers: Mitigation of wildfire with multifunctional landscapes

Wildfires ravage lands in seasonally dry regions, imposing high costs on infrastructure maintenance and human habitation at the wildland-urban interface. Current fire mitigation approaches present upfront costs with uncertain long-term payoffs. We show that a new landscape intervention on human-managed wildlands-buffers of a low-flammability crop species such as banana irrigated using recycled water-can mitigate wildfires and produce food profitably. This new intervention can complement existing fire mitigation approaches. Recreating a recent, major fire in simulation, we find that a medium-sized (633 m) banana buffer decreases fireline intensity by 96%, similar to the combination of prescribed burns and mechanical thinning, and delays the fire by 316 min, enabling safer and more effective firefighting. We find that under climate change, despite worsened fires, banana buffers will still have a protective effect. We also find that banana buffers with average yield could produce a profit of $56k USD/hectare through fruit sales, in addition to fire mitigation.

Measuring Firebrand Heat Flux with a Thin-Skin Calorimeter

While the impact of wildland-urban interface fires is growing, firebrand exposure is a significant but not well understood contributor to fire spread. The ignition threat of firebrand exposures can be characterized by measuring the heat transfer of glowing firebrands to a surface. The current study presents a novel method for conducting time-resolved heat transfer measurements from individual firebrands across a range of flow conditions. Experiments are conducted with individual glowing firebrands generated from birch discs and placed on a copper thin skin calorimeter of the same diameter, which is embedded in the substrate. The net heat flux from the firebrand to the thin skin calorimeter is obtained from the thermal energy storage in the thin skin calorimeter, plus heat conduction losses to the substrate. Values of peak net heat flux, total heating, duration of heating are reported under different flow conditions from 0.05 m/s to 1.6 m/s. The average peak net heat flux for the disc-shaped birch firebrands is 45 kW/m2, and does not change significantly with flow condition. However, there is an increase in the total heating, duration of heating, and total mass consumed as the flow velocity increases.

Air pollution and suicide in rural and urban America: Evidence from wildfire smoke

Air pollution poses well-established risks to physical health, but little is known about its effects on mental health. We study the relationship between wildfire smoke exposure and suicide risk in the United States in 2007 to 2019 using data on all deaths by suicide and satellite-based measures of wildfire smoke and ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations. We identify the causal effects of wildfire smoke pollution on suicide by relating year-over-year fluctuations in county-level monthly smoke exposure to fluctuations in suicide rates and compare the effects across local areas and demographic groups that differ considerably in their baseline suicide risk. In rural counties, an additional day of smoke increases monthly mean PM2.5 by 0.41 μg/m3 and suicide deaths by 0.11 per million residents, such that a 1-μg/m3 (13%) increase in monthly wildfire-derived fine particulate matter leads to 0.27 additional suicide deaths per million residents (a 2.0% increase). These effects are concentrated among demographic groups with both high baseline suicide risk and high exposure to outdoor air: men, working-age adults, non-Hispanic Whites, and adults with no college education. By contrast, we find no evidence that smoke pollution increases suicide risk among any urban demographic group. This study provides large-scale evidence that air pollution elevates the risk of suicide, disproportionately so among rural populations.

Building water resilience in the face of cascading wildfire risks

Severe wildfire is altering the natural and the built environment and posing risks to environmental and societal health and well-being, including cascading impacts to water systems and built water infrastructure. Research on wildfire-resilient water systems is growing but not keeping pace with the scale and severity of wildfire impacts, despite their intensifying threat. In this study, we evaluate the state of knowledge regarding wildfire-related hazards to water systems. We propose a holistic framework to assess interactions and feedback loops between water quality, quantity, and infrastructure hazards as determinants of post-fire water availability and access. Efforts to address the evolving threat of wildfires to water systems will require more interdisciplinary research on the complex relationships shaping wildfire's threat to water availability and access. To support this, we need reliable long-term data availability, consistent metrics, greater research in shared contexts, more extensive research beyond the burn area, and multistakeholder collaboration on wildfire risks to water systems.

The global wildland-urban interface

The wildland-urban interface (WUI) is where buildings and wildland vegetation meet or intermingle1,2. It is where human-environmental conflicts and risks can be concentrated, including the loss of houses and lives to wildfire, habitat loss and fragmentation and the spread of zoonotic diseases3. However, a global analysis of the WUI has been lacking. Here, we present a global map of the 2020 WUI at 10 m resolution using a globally consistent and validated approach based on remote sensing-derived datasets of building area4 and wildland vegetation5. We show that the WUI is a global phenomenon, identify many previously undocumented WUI hotspots and highlight the wide range of population density, land cover types and biomass levels in different parts of the global WUI. The WUI covers only 4.7% of the land surface but is home to nearly half its population (3.5 billion). The WUI is especially widespread in Europe (15% of the land area) and the temperate broadleaf and mixed forests biome (18%). Of all people living near 2003-2020 wildfires (0.4 billion), two thirds have their home in the WUI, most of them in Africa (150 million). Given that wildfire activity is predicted to increase because of climate change in many regions6, there is a need to understand housing growth and vegetation patterns as drivers of WUI change.

Association of Wildfire Exposure While Recovering From Lung Cancer Surgery With Overall Survival

Importance

With a changing climate, wildfire activity in the US has increased dramatically, presenting multifaceted and compounding health hazards. Individuals discharged from the hospital following surgical resection of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) are potentially at higher risk from wildfires' health hazards.

Objective

To assess the association between wildfire exposure and postoperative long-term overall survival among patients with lung cancer in the US.

Design, Setting, and Participants

In this cohort study, individuals who underwent curative-intent NSCLC resection between January 1, 2004, and December 31, 2019, were selected from the National Cancer Database. Daily wildfire information was aggregated at the zip code level from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Fire Information for Resource Management System. The data analysis was performed between July 19, 2022, and April 14, 2023.

Exposure

An active wildfire detected at the zip code of residence between 0 and 3, 4 and 6, or 7 and 12 months after NSCLC surgery.

Main Outcome

Overall survival was defined as the interval between age at hospital discharge and age at death, last contact, or study end, whichever came first. Cox proportional hazards were used for estimating hazard ratios (HRs) adjusted for sex, region, metropolitan category, health insurance type, comorbidities, tumor size, lymph node involvement, era, and facility type.

Results

A total of 466 912 individuals included in the study (249 303 female and [53.4] and 217 609 male [46.6%]; mean [SD] age at diagnosis, 67.3 [9.9] years), with 48 582 (10.4%) first exposed to a wildfire between 0 and 3 months, 48 328 (10.6%) between 4 and 6 months, and 71 735 (15.3%) between 7 and 12 months following NSCLC surgery. Individuals exposed to a wildfire within 3 months (adjusted HR [AHR], 1.43; 95% CI, 1.41-1.45), between 4 and 6 months (AHR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.37-1.41), and between 7 and 12 months (AHR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.15-1.19) after discharge from the hospital following stage I to III NSCLC resection had worse overall survival than unexposed individuals.

Conclusions

In this cohort study, wildfire exposure was associated with worse overall survival following NSCLC surgical resection, suggesting that patients with lung cancer are at greater risk from the health hazards of wildfires and need to be prioritized in climate adaptation efforts.

Wildfire Exposure and Health Care Use Among People Who Use Durable Medical Equipment in Southern California

BACKGROUND

People using electricity-dependent durable medical equipment (DME) may be vulnerable to health effects from wildfire smoke, residence near wildfires, or residence in evacuation zones. To our knowledge, no studies have examined their healthcare utilization during wildfires.

METHODS

We obtained 2016-2020 counts of residential Zip Code Tabulation Area (ZCTA) level outpatient, emergency department (ED), and inpatient visits made by DME-using Kaiser Permanente Southern California members 45+. We linked counts to daily ZCTA-level wildfire particulate matter (PM) 2.5 and wildfire boundary and evacuation data from the 2018 Woolsey and 2019 Getty wildfires. We estimated the association of lagged (up to 7 days) wildfire PM 2.5 and residence near a fire or in an evacuation zone and healthcare visit frequency with negative binomial and difference-in-differences models.

RESULTS

Among 236,732 DME users, 10 µg/m 3 increases in wildfire PM 2.5 concentration were associated with the reduced rate (RR = 0.96; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.94, 0.99) of all-cause outpatient visits 1 day after exposure and increased rate on 4 of 5 subsequent days (RR range 1.03-1.12). Woolsey Fire proximity (<20 km) was associated with reduced all-cause outpatient visits, whereas evacuation and proximity were associated with increased inpatient cardiorespiratory visits (proximity RR = 1.45; 95% CI = 0.99, 2.12, evacuation RR = 1.72; 95% CI = 1.00, 2.96). Neither Getty Fire proximity nor evacuation was associated with healthcare visit frequency.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results support the hypothesis that wildfire smoke or proximity interrupts DME users' routine outpatient care, via sheltering in place. However, wildfire exposures were also associated with increased urgent healthcare utilization in this vulnerable group.

Association between wildfires and coccidioidomycosis incidence in California, 2000-2018: a synthetic control analysis

The frequency and severity of wildfires in the Western United States have increased over recent decades, motivating hypotheses that wildfires contribute to the incidence of coccidioidomycosis, an emerging fungal disease in the Western United States with sharp increases in incidence observed since 2000. While coccidioidomycosis outbreaks have occurred among wildland firefighters clearing brush, it remains unknown whether fires are associated with an increased incidence among the general population.

Methods

We identified 19 wildfires occurring within California's highly endemic San Joaquin Valley between 2003 and 2015. Using geolocated surveillance records, we applied a synthetic control approach to estimate the effect of each wildfire on the incidence of coccidioidomycosis among residents that lived within a hexagonal buffer of 20 km radii surrounding the fire.

Results

We did not detect excess cases due to wildfires in the 12 months (pooled estimated percent change in cases: 2.8%; 95% confidence interval [CI] = -29.0, 85.2), 13-24 months (7.9%; 95% CI = -27.3, 113.9), or 25-36 months (17.4%; 95% CI = -25.1, 157.1) following a wildfire. When examined individually, we detected significant increases in incidence following three of the 19 wildfires, all of which had relatively large adjacent populations, high transmission before the fire, and a burn area exceeding 5,000 acres.

Discussion

We find limited evidence that wildfires drive increases in coccidioidomycosis incidence among the general population. Nevertheless, our results raise concerns that large fires in regions with ongoing local transmission of Coccidioides may be associated with increases in incidence, underscoring the need for field studies examining Coccidioides spp. in soils and air pre- and post-wildfires.

Testing presence, assessing attitudes: Study of a 3D virtual tour in an "aesthetically challenged" landscape

This article examines the utility of 3D immersive media for enhancing public attitudes toward rare, open-canopied habitat restoration where the proposed treatments and outcomes may appear risky, unsightly, and at odds with people's sense of place in a forested landscape. We used 360° videos and video game software to build the first desktop-based, virtual tour of fire-dependent Pine Barrens restoration practices in Wisconsin's Northwoods in order to intervene where stakeholders have disapproved of pine barrens through conventional messaging. The study measured changes in attitudes toward clear-cutting, prescribed fire, and pine barrens between participant groups in a 2D- and 3D-media informational intervention including 73 subjects from Wisconsin and Minnesota. Results showed that both media interventions significantly enhanced attitudes across all three target categories, despite increased spatial presence, or immersion, in the 3D format. Against the 2D treatment, the 3D tour significantly enhanced both people's aesthetic sense of pine barrens and their attitudes toward this landscape for those whose initial attitudes were neutral or negative.

Rethinking disaster utopia: the limits of conspicuous resilience for community-based recovery and adaptation

While some communities appear to blossom in the wake of a disaster, others are left to struggle in the ashes. This paper introduces the concept of 'conspicuous resilience' to understand how emergent community-based recovery efforts privilege some needs while marginalising others, contributing to uneven forms of recovery. Drawing on a qualitative case study of the deadly Montecito debris flow in Southern California, United States, in January 2018, an in-depth examination of emergent community-based resilience efforts is gauged next to the social construction of unmet needs. Conspicuous acts of resilience centred around gaps in social and financial support as well as desires for protection from future debris flows. In defining and addressing needs, community-based interventions mirrored existing social inequalities and uneven relationships of power, promoting a false sense of equality and security while reinforcing private interests. To address the limits of conspicuous resilience, a justice-oriented politics of disaster recovery is needed.

Retrospective analysis of wildfire smoke exposure and birth weight outcomes in the San Francisco Bay Area of California

Despite the occurrence of wildfires quadrupling over the past four decades, the health effects associated with wildfire smoke exposures during pregnancy remains unknown. Particulate matter less than 2.5 μms (PM2.5) is among the major pollutants emitted in wildfire smoke. Previous studies found PM2.5 associated with lower birthweight, however, the relationship between wildfire-specific PM2.5 and birthweight is uncertain. Our study of 7923 singleton births in San Francisco between January 1, 2017 and March 12, 2020 examines associations between wildfire smoke exposure during pregnancy and birthweight. We linked daily estimates of wildfire-specific PM2.5 to maternal residence at the ZIP code level. We used linear and log-binomial regression to examine the relationship between wildfire smoke exposure by trimester and birthweight and adjusted for gestational age, maternal age, race/ethnicity, and educational attainment. We stratified by infant sex to examine potential effect modification. Exposure to wildfire-specific PM2.5 during the second trimester of pregnancy was positively associated with increased risk of large for gestational age (OR = 1.13; 95% CI: 1.03, 1.24), as was the number of days of wildfire-specific PM2.5 above 5 μg m-3 in the second trimester (OR = 1.03; 95% CI: 1.01, 1.06). We found consistent results with wildfire smoke exposure in the second trimester and increased continuous birthweight-for-gestational age z-score. Differences by infant sex were not consistent. Counter to our hypothesis, results suggest that wildfire smoke exposures are associated with increased risk for higher birthweight. We observed strongest associations during the second trimester. These investigations should be expanded to other populations exposed to wildfire smoke and aim to identify vulnerable communities. Additional research is needed to clarify the biological mechanisms in this relationship between wildfire smoke exposure and adverse birth outcomes.

Wildfire smoke exposure and emergency department visits in Washington State

Wildfires are increasing in prevalence in western North America due to changing climate conditions. A growing number of studies examine the impact of wildfire smoke on morbidity; however, few evaluate these impacts using syndromic surveillance data that cover many emergency departments (EDs). We used syndromic surveillance data to explore the effect of wildfire smoke exposure on all-cause respiratory and cardiovascular ED visits in Washington state. Using a time-stratified case crossover design, we observed an increased odds of asthma visits immediately after and in all five days following initial exposure (lag 0 OR: 1.13; 95% CI: 1.10, 1.17; lag 1-5 ORs all 1.05 or greater with a lower CI of 1.02 or higher), and an increased odds of respiratory visits in all five days following initial exposure (lag 1 OR: 1.02; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.03; lag 2-5 ORs and lower CIs were all at least as large) comparing wildfire smoke to non-wildfire smoke days. We observed mixed results for cardiovascular visits, with evidence of increased odds emerging only several days following initial exposure. We also found increased odds across all visit categories for a 10 μg m^-3 increase in smoke-impacted PM_2.5. In stratified analyses, we observed elevated odds for respiratory visits among ages 19-64, for asthma visits among ages 5-64, and mixed risk estimates for cardiovascular visits by age group. This study provides evidence of an increased risk of respiratory ED visits immediately following initial wildfire smoke exposure, and increased risk of cardiovascular ED visits several days following initial exposure. These increased risks are seen particularly among children and younger to middle-aged adults.

After the fire: A qualitative study of the role of long-term recovery organizations in addressing rural communities' post-wildfire needs

U.S. wildfire activity has increased over the past several decades, disrupting the systems and infrastructure that support community health and resilience. As the cumulative burden of wildfire damage is projected to increase, understanding an effective community recovery process is critically important. Through qualitative interviews with leaders of long-term recovery organizations (LTROs), a key component of wildfire recovery, we explored barriers and facilitators to LTROs' ability to support post-wildfire needs among rural communities. Between February-May 2022, we conducted surveys and semi-structured interviews with 18 leaders from six LTROs serving rural communities in Washington, Oregon, and California impacted by wildfires between 2015-2020. The Robert Wood Johnson Foundation's Culture of Health Framework informed the semi-structured interview guide and a priori codebook, to examine LTROs' ability to address post-wildfire community needs from a health equity perspective. Additional codes were added through an inductive approach, and emerging themes were identified. Our findings indicate that LTROs face many barriers in addressing community needs post-wildfire, including the policies governing access to and the slow arrival of recovery resources, the intertwined nature of community economic health and built environment restoration, and the challenge of forming a functional LTRO structure. However, participants also identified facilitators of LTROs' work, including the ability of LTROs and their government partners to adapt policies and procedures, and close collaboration with other community organizations. Factors both internal and external to the community and LTROs' organizational characteristics influence their ability to address community needs, essential to health, post-wildfire. This study's findings suggest the need for policy improvements to promote more equitable recovery resource access, that economic recovery should be a core LTRO function, and that recovery planning should be incorporated into community disaster preparedness activities. Future research should focus on LTROs' role in other contexts and in response to other disasters.

Risk of systemic fungal infections after exposure to wildfires: a population-based, retrospective study in California

BACKGROUND

Large-scale wildfires in California, USA, are increasing in both size and frequency, with substantial health consequences. The capacity for wildfire smoke to displace microbes and cause clinically significant fungal infections is poorly understood. We aimed to determine whether exposure to wildfire smoke was associated with an increased risk of hospital admissions for systemic fungal infections.

METHODS

In this population-based, retrospective study, we used hospital administrative data from 22 hospitals in California, USA, to analyse the association between wildfire smoke exposure and monthly hospital admissions for aspergillosis and coccidioidomycosis. We included hospitals that were members of the Vizient Clinical Data Base or Resource Manager during the study and excluded those that did not have complete reporting into Vizient during the study period. Smoke exposure was estimated using satellite-imaged smoke plumes in the hospital county. Incident rate ratios were calculated for all infection types 1 month and 3 months after smoke exposure.

FINDINGS

Between Oct 1, 2014, and May 31, 2018, there were a median of 1638 annual admissions per hospital in the study sample. Individual patient demographics were not collected. We did not observe an association between smoke exposure and rate of hospital admission for aspergillosis. However, hospital admission for coccidioidomycosis increased by 20% (95% CI 5-38) in the month following any smoke exposure. Hospital admission increased by 2% (0-4) for every day that there had been smoke exposure in the previous month, after adjustment for temperature and temporal trend. Similar results were obtained with smoke exposure data from the 3 months before admission.

INTERPRETATION

In the months following wildfire smoke exposure, California hospitals saw increased coccidioidomycosis infections. Given the projected increase in California wildfires and their expansion in endemic territories of soil-dwelling fungi, the ability for wildfire smoke to carry microbes and cause human disease warrants further research.

FUNDING

None.

Role of land-cover and WUI types on spatio-temporal dynamics of fires in the French Mediterranean area

This work aims at assessing, in the French Mediterranean area, the spatio-temporal trends of fires, including their causes, at fine scale (communities), comparing different periods between 1993 and 2017. These trends were compared to those of land-cover and wildland-urban interface (WUI) which were coupled with a spatial analysis of the ignitions in order to highlight the main drivers and preferential areas. Fire density was highly variable among communities, hotspots being located mostly close to big cities but spatially varying in time in contrast to fire occurrence and burned area. A decrease in the unknown cause proportion and a variation of the cause frequency were highlighted among periods, criminal fires being the most frequent and deleterious, especially before 2009, as well as those due to negligence during private activities, mostly after 2009. Land cover classes significantly varied among periods, artificialized and natural areas presenting a reversed trend compared with agricultural areas. Natural areas were the most affected by ignitions (60%), regardless of the period; this trend is slowly decreasing. WUI represented ∼30% of the study area, the different types varying spatially (denser clustered types mostly located in the South-East) and showed an increase over time, especially for both clustered types but with high variability among communities. Half of the ignitions occurred in WUI, with "very dense clustered" and "scattered" types being the most affected, especially in 2009. Better understanding the spatio-temporal evolution of fires and of their causes should allow refining the fire policies in terms of awareness raising, firefighting means, and land management.

Outcomes for an arboreal folivore after rehabilitation and implications for management

Wildlife rehabilitation is a critical part of animal welfare that contributes to species conservation. Despite the resources that go into rehabilitation, how animals fare after release from care is unknown. This is particularly true for cryptic arboreal species where specialist diets in care and low detectability in the wild present challenges for both care and post-release monitoring. We evaluated post-release outcomes for koalas and assessed if koalas were fed appropriately while in care. We monitored 36 koalas that had experienced one of three categories of medical intervention (none, minor, major) during rehabilitation. We examined the drivers of (i) koala survival and (ii) movements post-release, and (iii) evaluated variation between the species of browse fed in care versus browse selected by koalas in-situ. Overall, the post release survival rate of koalas was 58.5%, with only koalas that received medical intervention experiencing mortality. A critical threshold for mortality occurred at two weeks post-release and mortality was related to the measurable indicators of low body condition and poor climbing ability at time of release. In the month following their release, animals translocated furthest from their capture point moved the furthest. There was poor overlap between the tree species that koalas were fed in care and those they utilized post-release. We provide recommendations to address critical gaps in rehabilitation practices, as well as priorities for monitoring animals post-release to improve outcomes for arboreal folivores.

Unprotected lands: A case study of a wildland-urban interface community in "No-Man's land"

There are areas of the United States that have no formalized fire protection. These lands are colloquially referred to as "no-man's land" but are recognized by many land management agencies as unprotected lands. Unprotected lands are generally rural landscapes and exist in areas that are sparsely populated and lack formalized fire protection. In some cases, lands that are designated as wildland-urban interface are comprised of significant portions of unprotected lands. Currently, there has been little in the way of research completed that pertains to the overall amount of land that is designated as unprotected. Additionally, definitional obfuscation between land management agencies, researchers, and land holders lead to confusion about the overall level of formal fire protection landscapes do or do not have. Research surrounding the social characteristics of human populations that inhabit unprotected lands is even more limited than the geospatial attributes of those landscapes. This research is a case study of one community, located in Washington State, that is located on unprotected lands. Semi-structured, in-depth interviews were conducted with 32 participants who live in the study area. Participants were asked questions to assess their level of knowledge about unprotected lands and to determine their preferences regarding the introduction of formalized fire protection. Over the course of the field work, data was also gathered pertaining to participants' capacity to adapt to wildfire and the social characteristics that are present within the community that could impact their ability to 'live with wildfire.' We discovered that a large proportion of participants were unaware that they had no formalized fire protection and displayed significant lack of knowledge about unprotected lands. Those participants, however, shared social characteristics with the participants that were aware of their level of fire protection that promote a sense of collective self-sufficiency and a rejection of outside interference. Those participants who were aware of the unprotected lands situation did profess a need for some type of additional fire protection for their community, but in general, participants favored managing wildfire risk on their own.

Identification and quantification of Cr, Cu, and As incidental nanomaterials derived from CCA-treated wood in wildland-urban interface fire ashes

In addition to the combustion of vegetation, fires at the wildland-urban interface (WUI) burn structural materials, including chromated copper arsenate (CCA)-treated wood. This study identifies, quantifies, and characterizes Cr-, Cu-, and As-bearing incidental nanomaterials (INMs) in WUI fire ashes collected from three residential structures suspected to have originated from the combustion of CCA-treated wood. The total elemental concentrations were determined by inductively coupled plasma-time of flight-mass spectrometry (ICP-TOF-MS) following acid digestion. The crystalline phases were determined using transmission electron microscopy (TEM), specifically using electron diffraction and high-resolution imaging. The multi-element single particle composition and size distribution were determined by single particle (SP)-ICP-TOF-MS coupled with agglomerative hierarchical clustering analysis. Chromium, Cu, and As are the dominant elements in the ashes and together account for 93%, 83%, and 24% of the total mass of measured elements in the ash samples. Chromium, Cu, and As phases, analyzed by TEM, most closely match CrO₃, CrO₂, eskolaite (Cr₂O₃), CuCrO₂, CuCr₂O₄, CrAs₂O₆, As₂O₅, AsO₂, claudetite (As₂O₃, monoclinic), or arsenolite (As₂O₃, cubic), although a bona fide phase identification for each particle was not always possible. These phases occur predominantly as heteroaggregates. Multi-element single particle analyses demonstrate that Cr occurs as a pure phase (i.e., Cr oxides) as well as in association with other elements (e.g., Cu and As); Cu occurs predominantly in association with Cr and As; and As occurs as As oxides and in association with Cu and Cr. Several Cr, Cu, and As clusters were identified and the molar ratios of Cr/Cu and Cr/As within these clusters are consistent with the crystalline phases identified by TEM as well as their heteroaggregates. These results indicate that WUI fires can lead to significant release of CCA constituents and their combustion-transformed by-products into the surrounding environment. This study also provides a method to identify and track CCA constituents in environmental systems based on multi-element analysis using SP-ICP-TOF-MS.

Denis LA. Shifting social-ecological fire regimes explain increasing structure loss from Western wildfires

Structure loss is an acute, costly impact of the wildfire crisis in the western conterminous United States ("West"), motivating the need to understand recent trends and causes. We document a 246% rise in West-wide structure loss from wildfires between 1999-2009 and 2010-2020, driven strongly by events in 2017, 2018, and 2020. Increased structure loss was not due to increased area burned alone. Wildfires became significantly more destructive, with a 160% higher structure-loss rate (loss/kha burned) over the past decade. Structure loss was driven primarily by wildfires from unplanned human-related ignitions (e.g. backyard burning, power lines, etc.), which accounted for 76% of all structure loss and resulted in 10 times more structures destroyed per unit area burned compared with lightning-ignited fires. Annual structure loss was well explained by area burned from human-related ignitions, while decadal structure loss was explained by state-level structure abundance in flammable vegetation. Both predictors increased over recent decades and likely interacted with increased fuel aridity to drive structure-loss trends. While states are diverse in patterns and trends, nearly all experienced more burning from human-related ignitions and/or higher structure-loss rates, particularly California, Washington, and Oregon. Our findings highlight how fire regimes-characteristics of fire over space and time-are fundamentally social-ecological phenomena. By resolving the diversity of Western fire regimes, our work informs regionally appropriate mitigation and adaptation strategies. With millions of structures with high fire risk, reducing human-related ignitions and rethinking how we build are critical for preventing future wildfire disasters.