Climate, changing phenology, and other life history traits: nonlinearity and match-mismatch to the environment

Anatomy of a range contraction: Flow-phenology mismatches threaten salmonid fishes near their trailing edge

Climate change is redistributing life on Earth, with profound impacts for ecosystems and human well-being. While repeat surveys separated by multidecadal intervals can determine whether observed shifts are in the expected direction (e.g., poleward or upslope due to climate change), they do not reveal their mechanisms or time scales: whether they were gradual responses to environmental trends or punctuated responses to disturbance events. Here, we document population reductions and temporary range contractions at multiple sites resulting from drought for three Pacific salmonids at their ranges' trailing edge. During California's 2012 to 2016 historic multiyear drought, the 2013 to 2014 winter stood apart because rainfall was both reduced and delayed. Extremely low river flows during the breeding season ("flow-phenology mismatch") reduced or precluded access to breeding habitat. While Chinook (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) experienced a down-river range shift, entire cohorts failed in individual tributaries (steelhead trout, O. mykiss) and in entire watersheds (coho salmon, O. kisutch). Salmonids returned to impacted sites in subsequent years, rescued by reserves in the ocean, life history diversity, and, in one case, a conservation broodstock program. Large population losses can, however, leave trailing-edge populations vulnerable to extinction due to demographic stochasticity, making permanent range contraction more likely. When only a few large storms occur during high flow season, the timing of particular storms plays an outsized role in determining which migratory fish species are able to access their riverine breeding grounds and persist.

Chasing the Niche: Escaping Climate Change Threats in Place, Time, and Space

Climate change is creating mismatches between species' current environments and their historical niches. Locations that once had the abiotic and biotic conditions to support the persistence of a species may now be too warm, too dry, or simply too different, to meet their niche requirements. Changes in behaviors, altered phenology, and range shifts are common responses to climate change. Though these responses are often studied in isolation by scientists from disparate subfields of ecology, they all represent variants of the same solution-strategies to realign the conditions populations experience with their niche. Here, we aim to (1) identify the physiological and ecological effects, and potential alignment, of these three ecological responses: shifts in behavior, phenology, or ranges, (2) determine the circumstances under which each type of response may be more or less effective at mitigating the effects of climate change, and (3) consider how these strategies might interact with each other. Each response has been previously reviewed, but efforts to consider relationships between ecological (or with evolutionary) responses have been limited. A synthetic perspective that considers the similarities among ecological responses and how they interact with each other and with evolutionary responses offers a more robust view on species' resilience to climate change.

Climate change and the cost-of-living squeeze in desert lizards

Climate warming can induce a cost-of-living "squeeze" in ectotherms by increasing energetic expenditures while reducing foraging gains. We used biophysical models (validated by 2685 field observations) to test this hypothesis for 10 ecologically diverse lizards in African and Australian deserts. Historical warming (1950-2020) has been more intense in Africa than in Australia, translating to an energetic squeeze for African diurnal species. Although no net impact on Australian diurnal species was observed, warming generated an energetic "relief" (by increasing foraging time) for nocturnal species. Future warming impacts will be more severe in Africa than in Australia, requiring increased rates of food intake (+10% per hour active for diurnal species). The effects of climate warming on desert lizard energy budgets will thus be species-specific but potentially predictable.

Global Crop-Specific Fertilization Dataset from 1961-2019

As global fertilizer application rates increase, high-quality datasets are paramount for comprehensive analyses to support informed decision-making and policy formulation in crucial areas such as food security or climate change. This study aims to fill existing data gaps by employing two machine learning models, eXtreme Gradient Boosting and HistGradientBoosting algorithms to produce precise country-level predictions of nitrogen (N), phosphorus pentoxide (P2O5), and potassium oxide (K2O) application rates. Subsequently, we created a comprehensive dataset of 5-arcmin resolution maps depicting the application rates of each fertilizer for 13 major crop groups from 1961 to 2019. The predictions were validated by both comparing with existing databases and by assessing the drivers of fertilizer application rates using the model's SHapley Additive exPlanations. This extensive dataset is poised to be a valuable resource for assessing fertilization trends, identifying the socioeconomic, agricultural, and environmental drivers of fertilizer application rates, and serving as an input for various applications, including environmental modeling, causal analysis, fertilizer price predictions, and forecasting.

Soilscapes of Mortality Risk Suggest a Goldilocks Effect for Overwintering Ectotherms

AbstractChanging climates are driving population declines in diverse animals worldwide. Winter conditions may play an important role in these declines but are often overlooked. Animals must not only survive winter but also preserve body condition, a key determinant of growing season success. We hypothesized that ectotherms overwintering in soil face a trade-off between risks of cold damage (including freezing) near the surface and elevated energy use at deeper depths. To test this hypothesis, we developed landscapes of mortality risk across depth for overwintering bumble bee queens. These critical pollinators are in decline in part because of climate change, but little is known about how climate affects overwintering mortality. We developed a mechanistic modeling approach combining measurements of freezing points and the temperature dependence of metabolic rates with soil temperatures from across the United States to estimate mortality risk across depth under historic conditions and under several climate change scenarios. Under current conditions, overwintering queens face a Goldilocks effect: temperatures can be too cold at shallow depths because of substantial freezing risk but too hot at deep depths where they risk prematurely exhausting lipid stores. Models suggest that increases in mean temperatures and in seasonal and daily temperature variation will increase risk of overwinter mortality. Better predictions of effects of changing climate on dormant ectotherms require more measurements of physiological responses to temperature during dormancy across diverse taxa.

Germination responses to changing rainfall timing reveal potential climate vulnerability in a clade of wildflowers

The seasonal timing of life history transitions is often critical to fitness, and many organisms rely upon environmental cues to match life cycle events with favorable conditions. In plants, the timing of seed germination is mediated by seasonal cues such as rainfall and temperature. Variation in cue responses among species can reflect evolutionary processes and adaptation to local climate and can affect vulnerability to changing conditions. Indeed, climate change is altering the timing of precipitation, and germination responses to such change can have consequences for individual fitness, population dynamics, and species distributions. Here, we assessed responses to the seasonal timing of germination-triggering rains for eleven species spanning the Streptanthus/Caulanthus clade (Brassicaceae). To do so, we experimentally manipulated the onset date of rainfall events, measured effects on germination fraction, and evaluated whether responses were constrained by evolutionary relationships across the phylogeny. We then explored the possible consequences of these responses to contemporary shifts in precipitation timing. Germination fractions decreased with later onset of rains and cooler temperatures for all but three Caulanthus species. Species' germination responses to the timing of rainfall and seasonal temperatures were phylogenetically constrained, with Caulanthus species appearing less responsive. Further, four species are likely already experiencing significant decreases in germination fractions with observed climate change, which has shifted the timing of rainfall towards the cooler, winter months in California. Overall, our findings emphasize the sensitivity of germination to seasonal conditions, underscore the importance of interacting environmental cues, and highlight vulnerability to shifting precipitation patterns with climate change, particularly in more northern, mesic species.

Phenology varies with phylogeny but not by trophic level with climate change

Shifts in phenology with climate change can lead to asynchrony between interacting species, with cascading impacts on ecosystem services. Previous meta-analyses have produced conflicting results on whether asynchrony has increased in recent decades, but the underlying data have also varied-including in species composition, interaction types and whether studies compared data grouped by trophic level or compared shifts in known interacting species pairs. Here, using updated data from previous studies and a Bayesian phylogenetic model, we found that species have advanced an average of 3.1 days per decade across 1,279 time series across 29 taxonomic classes. We found no evidence that shifts vary by trophic level: shifts were similar when grouped by trophic level, and for species pairs when grouped by their type of interaction-either as paired species known to interact or as randomly paired species. Phenology varied with phylogeny (λ = 0.4), suggesting that uneven sampling of species may affect estimates of phenology and potentially phenological shifts. These results could aid forecasting for well-sampled groups but suggest that climate change has not yet led to widespread increases in phenological asynchrony across interacting species, although substantial biases in current data make forecasting for most groups difficult.

A framework for understanding climate change impacts through non-compensatory intra- and interspecific climate change responses

Understanding and predicting population responses to climate change is a crucial challenge. A key component of population responses to climate change are cases in which focal biological rates (e.g., population growth rates) change in response to climate change due to non-compensatory effects of changes in the underlying components (e.g., birth and death rates) determining the focal rates. We refer to these responses as non-compensatory climate change effects. As differential responses of biological rates to climate change have been documented in a variety of systems and arise at multiple levels of organization within and across species, non-compensatory effects may be nearly ubiquitous. Yet, how non-compensatory climate change responses combine and scale to influence the demographics of populations is often unclear and requires mapping them to the birth and death rates underlying population change. We provide a flexible framework for incorporating non-compensatory changes in upstream rates within and among species and mapping their consequences for additional downstream rates across scales to their eventual effects on population growth rates. Throughout, we provide specific examples and potential applications of the framework. We hope this framework helps to enhance our understanding of and unify research on population responses to climate change.

Responses in the breeding parameters of the collared flycatcher to the changing climate

Global climate change involves various aspects of climate, including precipitation changes and declining surface wind speeds, but studies investigating biological responses have often focused on the impacts of rising temperatures. Additionally, related long-term studies on bird reproduction tend to concentrate on breeding onset, even though other aspects of breeding could also be sensitive to the diverse weather aspects. This study aimed to explore how multiple aspects of breeding (breeding onset, hatching delay, breeding season length, clutch size, fledgling number) were associated with different weather components. We used an almost four-decade-long dataset to investigate the various aspects of breeding parameters of a collared flycatcher (Ficedula albicollis) population in the Carpathian Basin. Analyses revealed some considerable associations, for example, breeding seasons lengthened with the amount of daily precipitation, and clutch size increased with the number of cool days. Parallel and opposing changes in the correlated pairs of breeding and weather parameters were also observed. The phenological mismatch between prey availability and breeding time slightly increased, and fledgling number strongly decreased with increasing mistiming. Our results highlighted the intricate interplay between climate change and the reproductive patterns of migratory birds, emphasizing the need for a holistic approach. The results also underscored the potential threats posed by climate change to bird populations and the importance of adaptive responses to changing environmental conditions.

Climate change is poised to alter mountain stream ecosystem processes via organismal phenological shifts

Climate change is affecting the phenology of organisms and ecosystem processes across a wide range of environments. However, the links between organismal and ecosystem process change in complex communities remain uncertain. In snow-dominated watersheds, snowmelt in the spring and early summer, followed by a long low-flow period, characterizes the natural flow regime of streams and rivers. Here, we examined how earlier snowmelt will alter the phenology of mountain stream organisms and ecosystem processes via an outdoor mesocosm experiment in stream channels in the Eastern Sierra Nevada, California. The low-flow treatment, simulating a 3- to 6-wk earlier return to summer baseflow conditions projected under climate change scenarios in the region, increased water temperature and reduced biofilm production to respiration ratios by 32%. Additionally, most of the invertebrate species explaining community change (56% and 67% of the benthic and emergent taxa, respectively), changed in phenology as a consequence of the low-flow treatment. Further, emergent flux pulses of the dominant insect group (Chironomidae) almost doubled in magnitude, benefitting a generalist riparian predator. Changes in both invertebrate community structure (composition) and functioning (production) were mostly fine-scale, and response diversity at the community level stabilized seasonally aggregated responses. Our study illustrates how climate change in vulnerable mountain streams at the rain-to-snow transition is poised to alter the dynamics of stream food webs via fine-scale changes in phenology-leading to novel predator-prey "matches" or "mismatches" even when community structure and ecosystem processes appear stable at the annual scale.

Bringing traits back into the equation: A roadmap to understand species redistribution

Ecological and evolutionary theories have proposed that species traits should be important in mediating species responses to contemporary climate change; yet, empirical evidence has so far provided mixed evidence for the role of behavioral, life history, or ecological characteristics in facilitating or hindering species range shifts. As such, the utility of trait-based approaches to predict species redistribution under climate change has been called into question. We develop the perspective, supported by evidence, that trait variation, if used carefully can have high potential utility, but that past analyses have in many cases failed to identify an explanatory value for traits by not fully embracing the complexity of species range shifts. First, we discuss the relevant theory linking species traits to range shift processes at the leading (expansion) and trailing (contraction) edges of species distributions and highlight the need to clarify the mechanistic basis of trait-based approaches. Second, we provide a brief overview of range shift-trait studies and identify new opportunities for trait integration that consider range-specific processes and intraspecific variability. Third, we explore the circumstances under which environmental and biotic context dependencies are likely to affect our ability to identify the contribution of species traits to range shift processes. Finally, we propose that revealing the role of traits in shaping species redistribution may likely require accounting for methodological variation arising from the range shift estimation process as well as addressing existing functional, geographical, and phylogenetic biases. We provide a series of considerations for more effectively integrating traits as well as extrinsic and methodological factors into species redistribution research. Together, these analytical approaches promise stronger mechanistic and predictive understanding that can help society mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change on biodiversity.

Climate-driven phenological shifts in emergence dates of British bees

Climate change has a diverse range of impacts on wild bees, including their phenology or timing of life history events. Climate-driven phenological shifts can not only impact individuals at species level but also threaten the vital pollination service that wild bees provide to both wild plants and cultivated crops. Despite their involvement in pollination, for most bee species, especially in Great Britain, little is known about phenological shifts. This study makes use of 40 years of presence-only data for 88 species of wild bees to analyse shifts in emergence dates, both over time and in relation to temperature. The analyses reveal widespread advances in emergence dates of British wild bees, at an average rate of 0.40 ± 0.02 days per year since 1980 across all species in the study data set. Temperature is a key driver of this shift, with an average advance of 6.5 ± 0.2 days per 1°C warming. For change in emergence dates both over time and in relation to temperature, there was significant species-specific variation, with 14 species showing significant advances over time and 67 showing significant advances in relation to temperature. Traits did not appear to explain variation in individual species' responses, with overwintering stage, lecty, emergence period and voltinism considered as possible explanatory traits. Pairwise comparisons showed no differences in sensitivity of emergence dates to increasing temperature between trait groups (groups of species which share all four traits) that differed by only one trait. These results highlight not only a direct impact of temperature on the phenology of wild bees themselves but also the species-specific shifts highlight a possible impact on the temporal structure of bee communities and the pollination networks for which the wild bees are so crucial.

MOSAIC - A Unified Trait Database to Complement Structured Population Models

Despite exponential growth in ecological data availability, broader interoperability amongst datasets is needed to unlock the potential of open access. Our understanding of the interface of demography and functional traits is well-positioned to benefit from such interoperability. Here, we introduce MOSAIC, an open-access trait database that unlocks the demographic potential stored in the COMADRE, COMPADRE, and PADRINO open-access databases. MOSAIC data were digitised and curated through a combination of existing datasets and new trait records sourced from primary literature. In its first release, MOSAIC (v. 1.0.0) includes 14 trait fields for 300 animal and plant species: biomass, height, growth determination, regeneration, sexual dimorphism, mating system, hermaphrodism, sequential hermaphrodism, dispersal capacity, type of dispersal, mode of dispersal, dispersal classes, volancy, and aquatic habitat dependency. MOSAIC includes species-level phylogenies for 1,359 species and population-specific climate data. We identify how database integration can improve our understanding of traits well-quantified in existing repositories and those that are poorly quantified (e.g., growth determination, modularity). MOSAIC highlights emerging challenges associated with standardising databases and demographic measures.

Effects of climate on fall migration phenology of monarch butterflies departing the northeastern breeding grounds in Canada

Monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) undergo an iconic multi-generational migration, traveling thousands of kilometers from the summer breeding grounds in southern Canada to overwintering sites in central Mexico. This migration phenomena can be affected by climate change, which may have important implications on fitness and ultimately populations status. We investigated the long-term trends in fall migration phenology of monarchs using a 25-year dataset collected along the coast of Lake Erie in Ontario, Canada. We also investigated local long-term trends in weather covariates that have the potential to influence migration phenology at this site. Patterns in standardized daily counts of monarchs were compared with local weather covariates using two methods (i.e., monthly averages and moving windows) to assess difference in outputs between analytical approaches. Our results suggest that monarch migration timing (migration midpoint, average peak, first peak, and late passage) and weather covariates have been consistent over time, in direct contrast to a similar study in Cape May, New Jersey, which showed a significant increase in both fall temperature and a 16- to 19-day shift in monarch migration timing. Furthermore, our results differed between analytical approaches. With respect to annual variability in air temperature, our monthly average analysis suggested that for each degree increase in September air temperature, late season passage would advance 4.71 days (±1.59 SE, p = .01). However, the moving window analysis suggested that this result is likely spurious and found no significant correlations between migration timing and any weather covariates. Importantly, our results caution against extrapolating the effects of climate change on the migration phenology of the monarch across study regions and the need for more long-term monitoring efforts to better understand regional drivers of variability in migration timing.

The effect of insect food availability on songbird reproductive success and chick body condition: Evidence from a systematic review and meta-analysis

Reports of declines in abundance and biomass of insects and other invertebrates from around the world have raised concerns about food limitation that could have profound impacts for insectivorous species. Food availability can clearly affect species; however, there is considerable variation among studies in whether this effect is evident, and thus a lack of clarity over the generality of the relationship. To understand how decreased food availability due to invertebrate declines will affect bird populations, we conducted a systematic review and used meta-analytic structural equation modelling, which allowed us to treat our core variables of interest as latent variables estimated by the diverse ways in which researchers measure fecundity and chick body condition. We found a moderate positive effect of food availability on chick body condition and a strong positive effect on reproductive success. We also found a negative relationship between chick body condition and reproductive success. Our results demonstrate that food is generally a limiting factor for breeding songbirds. Our analysis also provides evidence for a consistent trade-off between chick body condition and reproductive success, demonstrating the complexity of trophic dynamics important for these vital rates.

Pathways to global-change effects on biodiversity: new opportunities for dynamically forecasting demography and species interactions

In structured populations, persistence under environmental change may be particularly threatened when abiotic factors simultaneously negatively affect survival and reproduction of several life cycle stages, as opposed to a single stage. Such effects can then be exacerbated when species interactions generate reciprocal feedbacks between the demographic rates of the different species. Despite the importance of such demographic feedbacks, forecasts that account for them are limited as individual-based data on interacting species are perceived to be essential for such mechanistic forecasting-but are rarely available. Here, we first review the current shortcomings in assessing demographic feedbacks in population and community dynamics. We then present an overview of advances in statistical tools that provide an opportunity to leverage population-level data on abundances of multiple species to infer stage-specific demography. Lastly, we showcase a state-of-the-art Bayesian method to infer and project stage-specific survival and reproduction for several interacting species in a Mediterranean shrub community. This case study shows that climate change threatens populations most strongly by changing the interaction effects of conspecific and heterospecific neighbours on both juvenile and adult survival. Thus, the repurposing of multi-species abundance data for mechanistic forecasting can substantially improve our understanding of emerging threats on biodiversity.

The emergence and shift in seasonality of Lyme borreliosis in Northern Europe

Climate change has had a major impact on seasonal weather patterns, resulting in marked phenological changes in a wide range of taxa. However, empirical studies of how changes in seasonality impact the emergence and seasonal dynamics of vector-borne diseases have been limited. Lyme borreliosis, a bacterial infection spread by hard-bodied ticks, is the most common vector-borne disease in the northern hemisphere and has been rapidly increasing in both incidence and geographical distribution in many regions of Europe and North America. By analysis of long-term surveillance data (1995-2019) from across Norway (latitude 57°58'-71°08' N), we demonstrate a marked change in the within-year timing of Lyme borreliosis cases accompanying an increase in the annual number of cases. The seasonal peak in cases is now six weeks earlier than 25 years ago, exceeding seasonal shifts in plant phenology and previous model predictions. The seasonal shift occurred predominantly in the first 10 years of the study period. The concurrent upsurgence in case number and shift in case timing indicate a major change in the Lyme borreliosis disease system over recent decades. This study highlights the potential for climate change to shape the seasonal dynamics of vector-borne disease systems.

Environmental refuges from disease in host-parasite interactions under global change

The physiological performance of organisms depends on their environmental context, resulting in performance-response curves along environmental gradients. Parasite performance-response curves are generally expected to be broader than those of their hosts due to shorter generation times and hence faster adaptation. However, certain environmental conditions may limit parasite performance more than that of the host, thereby providing an environmental refuge from disease. Thermal disease refuges have been extensively studied in response to climate warming, but other environmental factors may also provide environmental disease refuges which, in turn, respond to global change. Here, we (1) showcase laboratory and natural examples of refuges from parasites along various environmental gradients, and (2) provide hypotheses on how global environmental change may affect these refuges. We strive to synthesize knowledge on potential environmental disease refuges along different environmental gradients including salinity and nutrients, in both natural and food-production systems. Although scaling up from single host-parasite relationships along one environmental gradient to their interaction outcome in the full complexity of natural environments remains difficult, integrating host and parasite performance-response can serve to formulate testable hypotheses about the variability in parasitism outcomes and the occurrence of environmental disease refuges under current and future environmental conditions.

Bat responses to climate change: a systematic review

Understanding how species respond to climate change is key to informing vulnerability assessments and designing effective conservation strategies, yet research efforts on wildlife responses to climate change fail to deliver a representative overview due to inherent biases. Bats are a species-rich, globally distributed group of organisms that are thought to be particularly sensitive to the effects of climate change because of their high surface-to-volume ratios and low reproductive rates. We systematically reviewed the literature on bat responses to climate change to provide an overview of the current state of knowledge, identify research gaps and biases and highlight future research needs. We found that studies are geographically biased towards Europe, North America and Australia, and temperate and Mediterranean biomes, thus missing a substantial proportion of bat diversity and thermal responses. Less than half of the published studies provide concrete evidence for bat responses to climate change. For over a third of studied bat species, response evidence is only based on predictive species distribution models. Consequently, the most frequently reported responses involve range shifts (57% of species) and changes in patterns of species diversity (26%). Bats showed a variety of responses, including both positive (e.g. range expansion and population increase) and negative responses (range contraction and population decrease), although responses to extreme events were always negative or neutral. Spatial responses varied in their outcome and across families, with almost all taxonomic groups featuring both range expansions and contractions, while demographic responses were strongly biased towards negative outcomes, particularly among Pteropodidae and Molossidae. The commonly used correlative modelling approaches can be applied to many species, but do not provide mechanistic insight into behavioural, physiological, phenological or genetic responses. There was a paucity of experimental studies (26%), and only a small proportion of the 396 bat species covered in the examined studies were studied using long-term and/or experimental approaches (11%), even though they are more informative about the effects of climate change. We emphasise the need for more empirical studies to unravel the multifaceted nature of bats' responses to climate change and the need for standardised study designs that will enable synthesis and meta-analysis of the literature. Finally, we stress the importance of overcoming geographic and taxonomic disparities through strengthening research capacity in the Global South to provide a more comprehensive view of terrestrial biodiversity responses to climate change.

Quantifying the importance of day length in process-based models for the prediction of temperate spring flowering phenology

Owing to climate change and frequent extreme weather events, changes in spring flowering phenology have been observed in temperate forests. The flowering time response to climate change is divergent among species and is difficult to predict due to the complexity of flowering mechanisms. To compare the effects of spring warming, winter chilling, and day length on spring flowering time, we evaluated eight process-based models (two types of forcing models, two types of chilling-forcing models, and four models with the effect of day length added to the aforementioned four models). We used flowering data of seven temperate species (Cornus officinalis, Rhododendron mucronulatum, Forsythia koreana, Prunus yedoensis, Rhododendron yedoense f. poukhanense, Rhododendron schlippenbachii, and Robinia pseudoacacia) observed in nine different arboretums in South Korea over 9 years. Generally, the forcing model performed better than the sequential chilling-forcing model, regardless of the species. The performance gap between the models was reduced when day length term was included in model, but the chilling-forcing model did not outperform the forcing model. The effect of day length on flowering time differed depending on the species. Prunus yedoensis, which had a particularly low warming sensitivity compared to other species, was more dependent on day length than other species. On the other hand, day length had little effect on the flowering time of Robinia pseudoacacia and Cornus officinalis, mostly found in the early successional stage. These findings imply that the effect of chilling on flowering time would be minor for the seven species inhabiting the warm-temperate forest, and the effect of day length on flowering time was species-specific and dependent on species' temperature (warming) sensitivity and life strategy. In the future warm climate, the flowering time of day length sensitive species would not advance significantly, which may result in a phenological mismatch and endanger their life.

Lizards from warm and declining populations are born with extremely short telomeres

Aging is the price to pay for acquiring and processing energy through cellular activity and life history productivity. Climate warming can exacerbate the inherent pace of aging, as illustrated by a faster erosion of protective telomere DNA sequences. This biomarker integrates individual pace of life and parental effects through the germline, but whether intra- and intergenerational telomere dynamics underlies population trends remains an open question. Here, we investigated the covariation between life history, telomere length (TL), and extinction risk among three age classes in a cold-adapted ectotherm (Zootoca vivipara) facing warming-induced extirpations in its distribution limits. TL followed the same threshold relationships with population extinction risk at birth, maturity, and adulthood, suggesting intergenerational accumulation of accelerated aging rate in declining populations. In dwindling populations, most neonates inherited already short telomeres, suggesting they were born physiologically old and unlikely to reach recruitment. At adulthood, TL further explained females' reproductive performance, switching from an index of individual quality in stable populations to a biomarker of reproductive costs in those close to extirpation. We compiled these results to propose the aging loop hypothesis and conceptualize how climate-driven telomere shortening in ectotherms may accumulate across generations and generate tipping points before local extirpation.

Species differences in the green-up date of typical vegetation in Inner Mongolia and climate-driven mechanism based on process-based phenology models

Different species within the same community may exhibit distinct phenological responses to climate change, so it is necessary to study species differences in the green-up date among abundant species within a wide area, and a suitable phenology model should be introduced to explain the associated climate-driven mechanism. Although various models have been developed, very few studies have aimed to compare their efficiency and robustness, and the relative contributions of climate driving factors have not been sufficiently examined. We analyzed phenology data for 12 species across 17 stations in Inner Mongolia and found that essential spatiotemporal and interspecies differences existed in the green-up date. Five process-based models were established for each species and their performance was comprehensively evaluated. The two-phase models (sequential model, parallel model, unified model and unified model combined with precipitation driving) generally performed better than the one-phase model (thermal time model), and the model considering precipitation performed the best, which indicates that it is necessary to introduce the chilling effect and precipitation driving effect to improve the model accuracy in arid environments. We proposed a method to estimate the contribution rates of various climate driving factors, and significant differences in the relative demand for the various climate driving factors among different species were clearly revealed. The results indicated that for natural vegetation in Inner Mongolia, the need for the chilling and temperature driving is relatively high, and the precipitation driving is very important for herbaceous vegetation, which leads to considerable spatial and interspecies differences in green-up date. We demonstrated the feasibility of quantitatively evaluating the contributions of different climate driving factors with a process-based model, and the contradiction in phenological changes among different studies may eventually be clarified.

Vertebrate Phenological Plasticity: from Molecular Mechanisms to Ecological and Evolutionary Implications

Seasonal variation in the availability of essential resources is one of the most important drivers of natural selection on the phasing and duration of annually recurring life-cycle events. Shifts in seasonal timing are among the most commonly reported responses to climate change and the capacity of organisms to adjust their timing, either through phenotypic plasticity or evolution, is a critical component of resilience. Despite growing interest in documenting and forecasting the impacts of climate change on phenology, our ability to predict how individuals, populations, and species might alter their seasonal timing in response to their changing environments is constrained by limited knowledge regarding the cues animals use to adjust timing, the endogenous genetic and molecular mechanisms that transduce cues into neural and endocrine signals, and the inherent capacity of animals to alter their timing and phasing within annual cycles. Further, the fitness consequences of phenological responses are often due to biotic interactions within and across trophic levels, rather than being simple outcomes of responses to changes in the abiotic environment. Here, we review the current state of knowledge regarding the mechanisms that control seasonal timing in vertebrates, as well as the ecological and evolutionary consequences of individual, population, and species-level variation in phenological responsiveness. Understanding the causes and consequences of climate-driven phenological shifts requires combining ecological, evolutionary, and mechanistic approaches at individual, populational, and community scales. Thus, to make progress in forecasting phenological responses and demographic consequences, we need to further develop interdisciplinary networks focused on climate change science.

Does mast seeding shape mating time in wild boar? A comparative study

In seasonal environments, the timing of reproduction often matches with the peak of food resources. One well-known effect of global warming is an earlier phenology of resources, leading to a possible mismatch between the timing of reproduction for consumers and food peak. However, global warming may also change the dynamics of food resources, such as the intensity and frequency of pulsed mast seeding. How quantitative changes in mast seeding influence the timing of reproduction of seed consumers remains unexplored. Here, we assess how yearly variation in mast seeding influences mating time in wild boar (Sus scrofa), a widespread seed consumer species. We took advantage of the intensive monitoring of both female reproduction (1636 females) and acorn production over 6 consecutive years across 15 populations of wild boar in the wild. We found that mating time occurs earlier when acorn production increases in most but not all populations. In two out of 15 populations, heavy females mated earlier than light ones. Our findings demonstrate that mast seeding advances the mating time in some populations, which could perhaps impact how boars respond to climate change.

Climatic conditions and prevalence of melanistic snakes-contrasting effects of warm springs and mild winters

Climate change is one of the greatest challenges that wildlife is facing. Rapid shifts in climatic conditions may accelerate evolutionary changes in populations as a result of strong selective pressure. Most studies focus on the impact of climatic conditions on phenologies and annual cycles, whereas there are fewer reports of empirical support for climate-driven changes in the phenotypic variability of free-living populations. We investigated whether climatic variables explain the prevalence of colour polymorphism in a population of the grass snake (Natrix natrix) with two morphotypes, the melanistic and non-melanistic ones, in the period 1981-2013. We found that the prevalence of the black phenotype was negatively related to spring temperature and winter harshness, expressed as the number of snow days. According to the thermal melanism hypothesis, a high predation rate during warmer springs may override relaxed thermal benefits and vice versa, i.e. black individuals may perform better than typical ones when thermal conditions in spring are unfavourable. In turn, because they are smaller, melanistic individuals may be exposed to a higher risk of winter mortality, particularly during longer winters. We highlight the need for more studies on the effects of climatic conditions on temporal variation in melanism prevalence in other populations and species as well as in various geographic regions.

Effects of phenological mismatch under warming are modified by community context

Climate change is altering the relative timing of species interactions by shifting when species first appear in communities and modifying the duration organisms spend in each developmental stage. However, community contexts, such as intraspecific competition and alternative resource species, can prolong shortened windows of availability and may mitigate the effects of phenological shifts on species interactions. Using a combination of laboratory experiments and dynamic simulations, we quantified how the effects of phenological shifts in Drosophila-parasitoid interactions differed with concurrent changes in temperature, intraspecific competition, and the presence of alternative host species. Our study confirmed that warming shortens the window of host susceptibility. However, the presence of alternative host species sustained interaction persistence across a broader range of phenological shifts than pairwise interactions by increasing the degree of temporal overlap with suitable development stages between hosts and parasitoids. Irrespective of phenological shifts, parasitism rates declined under warming due to reduced parasitoid performance, which limited the ability of community context to manage temporally mismatched interactions. These results demonstrate that the ongoing decline in insect diversity may exacerbate the effects of phenological shifts in ecological communities under future global warming temperatures.

Phenological Response of Flood Plain Forest Ecosystem Species to Climate Change during 1961–2021

The present study analyses 61 years of phenological observations (1961–2021) of five herb, five shrub, four tree, and one bird species representing the prevalent spring species of floodplain forest ecosystems in the Czech Republic, central Europe. The in situ observations were conducted at the Vranovice site (48°48′ N, 16°46′ E, 170 m above mean sea level) representing the Plaček’ forest National Reserve. The observed plants and bird species showed statistically significant (p < 0.05) shifts in phenological terms to an earlier date of the year, but the rate of the shift among the observed species differed. The most progressive shifts were detected for the herbs (14 days), followed by the shrubs (13 days), trees (9 days), and finally by the bird species (8 days). All the phenophases were significantly correlated with the daily maximum temperature (r = 0.72–0.91). The results also showed a decline in the correlation for species among the phenophases of the herbs and trees. The phenophases that were highly correlated in the past were less correlated and had higher variability in the last decades. We conclude that the phenological response of the ecosystem to warming in the spring resulted in higher variability and a lower correlation among the observed phenophases mainly caused by the most expressive phenological shifts of the early herbs.

Community science reveals links between migration arrival timing advance, migration distance, and wing shape

Substantial global data show that many taxa are shifting their phenologies in response to climate change. For birds, migration arrival dates in breeding regions have been shifting earlier, and there is evidence that both evolutionary adaptation and behavioural flexibility influence these shifts. As more efficient flyers may be able to demonstrate more flexibility to respond to changing conditions during migratory flight, we hypothesize that differences among passerine species in flight efficiency, as reflected by morphology, may be associated with the magnitude of shifts in arrival date in response to climate warming. We applied a logistic model to eighteen years of eBird data to estimate mean arrival date for 44 common passerines migrating to northeast North America. We then used linear mixed-effects models to estimate changes in mean arrival date and compared these changes to morphological proxies for flight efficiency and migratory distance using phylogenetic generalized least squares models. On average, passerine species shifted their arrival dates 0.120 days earlier each year, with 27 of the 44 species shifting to significantly earlier arrival times, and two shifting to significantly later ones. Of the 15 species with non-significant shifts, 13 trended toward earlier arrivals. Longer migration distances and higher wing aspect ratios were associated with greater shifts towards earlier arrivals. Migration distance and aspect ratio were also significantly correlated to each other. This suggests that changes in arrival date are affected by factors pertaining to migratory flight over long distances namely, flight efficiency and migration distance. These traits may be able predict the magnitude of arrival date shift, and by extension identify species that are most at risk to climate change due to inflexible arrival timing.

Trade-off between sex and growth in diatoms: Molecular mechanisms and demographic implications

Diatoms are fast-growing and winning competitors in aquatic environments, possibly due to optimized growth performance. However, their life cycles are complex, heteromorphic, and not fully understood. Here, we report on the fine control of cell growth and physiology during the sexual phase of the marine diatom Pseudo-nitzschia multistriata. We found that mating, under nutrient replete conditions, induces a prolonged growth arrest in parental cells. Transcriptomic analyses revealed down-regulation of genes related to major metabolic functions from the early phases of mating. Single-cell photophysiology also pinpointed an inhibition of photosynthesis and storage lipids accumulated in the arrested population, especially in gametes and zygotes. Numerical simulations revealed that growth arrest affects the balance between parental cells and their siblings, possibly favoring the new generation. Thus, in addition to resources availability, life cycle traits contribute to shaping the species ecological niches and must be considered to describe and understand the structure of plankton communities.

Testing the match-mismatch hypothesis in bighorn sheep in the context of climate change

In species with long gestation, females commit to reproduction several months before parturition. If cues driving conception date are uncoupled from spring conditions, parturition could be mistimed. Mismatch may increase with global change if the rate of temporal changes in autumn cues differs from the rate of change in spring conditions. Using 17 years of data on climate and vegetation phenology, we show that autumn temperature and precipitation, but not vegetation phenology, explain parturition date in bighorn sheep. Although autumn cues drive the timing of conception, they do not predict conditions at parturition in spring. We calculated the mismatch between individual parturition date and spring green-up, assessed whether mismatch increased over time and investigated the consequences of mismatch on lamb neonatal survival, weaning mass and overwinter survival. Mismatch fluctuated over time but showed no temporal trend. Temporal changes in green-up date did not lead to major fitness consequence of mismatch. Detailed data on individually marked animals revealed no effect of mismatch on neonatal or overwinter survival, but lamb weaning mass was negatively affected by mismatch. Capital breeders might be less sensitive to mismatch than income breeders because they are less dependent on daily food acquisition. Herbivores in seasonal environments may access sufficient forage to sustain lactation before or after the spring 'peak' green-up, and partly mitigate the consequences of a mismatch. Thus, the effect of phenological mismatch on fitness may be affected by species life history, highlighting the complexity in quantifying trophic mismatches in the context of climate change.

Trophic significance of microzooplankton to commercially important small pelagic fishes along the southwest coast of India

Microzooplankton is an important component in the plankton food web transferring microbial food web carbon to the higher trophic levels, including fishes. This study investigates the role and significance of microzooplankton in the diet of three economically important small pelagic fishes along the southwest coast of India: Indian oil sardine (Sardinella longiceps), Indian mackerel (Rastrelliger kanagurta) and Commerson's anchovy (Stolephorous commersoni). The diet content of oil sardine was dominated by diatoms throughout the year with an increase in the presence of microzooplankton and copepods during the Northeast Monsoon. Phytoplankton, microzooplankton and copepods represented the diet of Indian mackerel throughout the year. Commerson's anchovy differed considerably in their diet composition from both Indian oil sardine and Indian mackerel as they chiefly depended on a carnivorous diet feeding on copepods, fish eggs, ostracods, lucifers and microzooplankton. The present study concludes that organic carbon from the microbial food web also, through microzooplankton, provides nutritional support to small pelagic fishes along the southwest coast of India but in varying degrees depending on the fish species as well the seasons.

Effect of Climate Change on Introduced and Native Agricultural Invasive Insect Pests in Europe

Climate change and invasive species are major environmental issues facing the world today. They represent the major threats for various types of ecosystems worldwide, mainly managed ecosystems such as agriculture. This study aims to examine the link between climate change and the biological invasion of insect pest species. Increased international trade systems and human mobility have led to increasing introduction rates of invasive insects while climate change could decrease barriers for their establishment and distribution. To mitigate environmental and economic damage it is important to understand the biotic and abiotic factors affecting the process of invasion (transport, introduction, establishment, and dispersal) in terms of climate change. We highlight the major biotic factors affecting the biological invasion process: diet breadth, phenological plasticity, and lifecycle strategies. Finally, we present alien insect pest invasion management that includes prevention, eradication, and assessment of the biological invasion in the form of modelling prediction tools.

Albatrosses respond adaptively to climate variability by changing variance in a foraging trait

The ability of individuals and populations to adapt to a changing climate is a key determinant of population dynamics. While changes in mean behaviour are well studied, changes in trait variance have been largely ignored, despite being assumed to be crucial for adapting to a changing environment. As the ability to acquire resources is essential to both reproduction and survival, changes in behaviours that maximize resource acquisition should be under selection. Here, using foraging trip duration data collected over 7 years on black-browed albatrosses (Thalassarche melanophris) on the Kerguelen Islands in the southern Indian Ocean, we examined the importance of changes in the mean and variance in foraging behaviour, and the associated effects on fitness, in response to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Using double hierarchical models, we found no evidence that individuals change their mean foraging trip duration in response to a changing environment, but found strong evidence of changes in variance. Younger birds showed greater variability in foraging trip duration in poor conditions as did birds with higher fitness. However, during brooding, birds showed greater variability in foraging behaviour under good conditions, suggesting that optimal conditions allow the alteration between chick provisioning and self-maintenance trips. We found weak correlations between sea surface temperature and the ENSO, but stronger links with sea-level pressure. We suggest that variability in behavioural traits affecting resource acquisition is under selection and offers a mechanism by which individuals can adapt to a changing climate. Studies which look only at effects on mean behaviour may underestimate the effects of climate change and fail to consider variance in traits as a key evolutionary force.

Life-history traits are poor predictors of species responses to flow regime change in headwater streams

Recent climate change is altering the timing, duration and volume of river and stream flows globally, and in many regions, perennially flowing rivers and streams are drying and switching to intermittent flows. Profound impacts on aquatic biota are becoming apparent, due in part to the strong influence of flow regime on the evolution of life history. We made predictions of life-history responses for 13 common aquatic invertebrate species (four caddisflies, five mayflies, two stoneflies, a dragonfly and an amphipod), to recent flow regime change in Australian mediterranean climate streams, based on historic studies in the same streams. Size distributions, phenology, voltinism and synchrony were compared, revealing five main responses. More than half of the species were restricted to perennially flowing streams and were absent from those that had switched to intermittent flows (including all four caddisfly species). These formerly common species are at risk of extinction as climate change progresses. Two mayfly species had divergent responses in voltinism and synchrony, and one relied on drought micro-refuges to persist. One stonefly species changed development timing to suit the new flow regime, and the amphipod species retreated to subterranean refuges. Two formerly common species were not detected at all during 2016-2017. In addition, a new mayfly species and a caddisfly species proliferated under new flow regimes, because they had life histories suited to brief hydroperiods. Importantly, previous life history rarely predicted species' actual responses to climate-driven flow regime change, raising doubts about the veracity of predictions based on species traits. This is because a species' potential for flexible phenology or growth rate is not necessarily indicated by life-history traits.

Reproductive trait differences drive offspring production in urban cavity-nesting bees and wasps

The contrasting and idiosyncratic changes in biodiversity that have been documented across urbanization gradients call for a more mechanistic understanding of urban community assembly. The reproductive success of organisms in cities should underpin their population persistence and the maintenance of biodiversity in urban landscapes. We propose that exploring individual-level reproductive traits and environmental drivers of reproductive success could provide the necessary links between environmental conditions, offspring production, and biodiversity in urban areas. For 3 years, we studied cavity-nesting solitary bees and wasps in four urban green space types across Toronto, Canada. We measured three reproductive traits of each nest: the total number of brood cells, the proportion of parasite-free cells, and the proportion of non-emerged brood cells that were parasite-free. We determined (a) how reproductive traits, trait diversity and offspring production respond to multiple environmental variables and (b) how well reproductive trait variation explains the offspring production of single nests, by reflecting the different ways organisms navigate trade-offs between gathering of resources and exposure to parasites. Our results showed that environmental variables were poor predictors of mean reproductive trait values, trait diversity, and offspring production. However, offspring production was highly positively correlated with reproductive trait evenness and negatively correlated with trait richness and divergence. This suggests that a narrow range of reproductive traits are optimal for reproduction, and the even distribution of individual reproductive traits across those optimal phenotypes is consistent with the idea that selection could favor diverse reproductive strategies to reduce competition. This study is novel in its exploration of individual-level reproductive traits and its consideration of multiple axes of urbanization. Reproductive trait variation did not follow previously reported biodiversity-urbanization patterns; the insensitivity to urbanization gradients raise questions about the role of the spatial mosaic of habitats in cities and the disconnections between different metrics of biodiversity.

Long-term stability in the volume of Atlantic Puffin (Fratercula arctica) eggs in the western North Atlantic

In the eastern North Atlantic, declines in the volume of Atlantic Puffin (Fratercula arctica (Linnaeus, 1758)) eggs have been associated with shifts in the marine ecosystem, such as changes in the abundance of forage fishes and increasing sea-surface temperatures. In the western North Atlantic, where similar shifts in oceanographic conditions and changes in the abundance of forage fishes have presumably occurred, trends in the volume of Atlantic Puffin eggs remain unknown. In this study, we investigate Atlantic Puffin egg volume in the western North Atlantic. We compiled 140 years (1877–2016) of egg volume measurements (n = 1805) and used general additive mixed-effects models to investigate temporal trends and regional variation. Our findings indicate that Atlantic Puffin egg volume differs regionally but has remained unchanged temporally in the western North Atlantic since at least the 1980s.

Migratory strategy drives species-level variation in bird sensitivity to vegetation green-up

Animals and plants are shifting the timing of key life events in response to climate change, yet despite recent documentation of escalating phenological change, scientists lack a full understanding of how and why phenological responses vary across space and among species. Here, we used over 7 million community-contributed bird observations to derive species-specific, spatially explicit estimates of annual spring migration phenology for 56 bird species across eastern North America. We show that changes in the spring arrival of migratory birds are coarsely synchronized with fluctuations in vegetation green-up and that the sensitivity of birds to plant phenology varied extensively. Bird arrival responded more synchronously with vegetation green-up at higher latitudes, where phenological shifts over time are also greater. Critically, species' migratory traits explained variation in sensitivity to green-up, with species that migrate more slowly, arrive earlier and overwinter further north showing greater responsiveness to earlier springs. Identifying how and why species vary in their ability to shift phenological events is fundamental to predicting species' vulnerability to climate change. Such variation in sensitivity across taxa, with long-distance neotropical migrants exhibiting reduced synchrony, may help to explain substantial declines in these species over the last several decades.

Spring understory herbs flower later in intensively managed forests

Many organisms respond to anthropogenic environmental change through shifts in their phenology. In plants, flowering is largely driven by temperature, and therefore affected by climate change. However, on smaller scales climatic conditions are also influenced by other factors, including habitat structure. A group of plants with a particularly distinct phenology are the understory herbs in temperate European forests. In these forests, management alters tree species composition (often replacing deciduous with coniferous species) and homogenizes stand structure, and as a consequence changes light conditions and microclimate. Forest management should thus also affect the phenology of understory herbs. To test this, we recorded the flowering phenology of 16 early-flowering herbs on 100 forest plots varying in management intensity, from near-natural to intensely managed forests, in central and southern Germany. We found that in forest stands with a high management intensity, such as Norway spruce plantations, the plants flowered on average about 2 weeks later than in unmanaged forests. This was largely because management also affected microclimate (e.g., spring temperatures of 5.9°C in managed coniferous, 6.7 in managed deciduous, and 7.0°C in unmanaged deciduous plots), which in turn affected phenology, with plants flowering later on colder and moister forest stands (+4.5 d per -1°C and 2.7 d per 10% humidity increase). Among forest characteristics, the percentage of conifers had the greatest influence on microclimate, but also the age, overall crown projection area, structural complexity and spatial distribution of the forest stands. Our study indicates that forest management alters plant phenology, with potential far-reaching consequences for the ecology and evolution of understorey communities. More generally, our study demonstrates that besides climate change other drivers of environmental change, too, can influence the phenology of organisms.

An organizing feature of bumble bee life history: worker emergence promotes queen reproduction and survival in young nests

Bumble bee queens initiate nests solitarily and transition to living socially once they successfully rear their first cohort of offspring. Bumble bees are disproportionately important for early season pollination, and many populations are experiencing dramatic declines. In this system, the onset of the social stage is critical for nest survival, yet the mechanisms that facilitate this transition remain understudied. Further, the majority of conservation efforts target the social stage of the bumble bee life cycle and do not address the solitary founding stage. We experimentally manipulated the timing of worker emergence in young nests of bumble bee (Bombus impatiens) queens to determine whether and how queen fecundity and survival are impacted by the emergence of workers in the nest. We found that queens with workers added to the nest exhibit increased ovary activation, accelerated egg laying, elevated juvenile hormone (JH) titres and also lower mortality relative to solitary queens. We also show that JH is more strongly impacted by the social environment than associated with queen reproductive state, suggesting that this key regulator of insect reproduction has expanded its function in bumble bees to also influence social organization. We further demonstrate that these effects are independent of queen social history, suggesting that this underlying mechanism promoting queen fecundity is reversible and short lived. Synchronization between queen reproductive status and emergence of workers in the nest may ultimately increase the likelihood of early nesting success in social systems with solitary nest founding. Given that bumble bee workers regulate queen physiology as we have demonstrated, the timing of early worker emergence in the nest likely impacts queen fitness, colony developmental trajectories and ultimately nesting success. Collectively, our findings underline the importance of conservation interventions for bumble bees that support the early nesting period and facilitate the production and maintenance of workers in young nests.

Genomic signatures of thermal adaptation are associated with clinal shifts of life history in a broadly distributed frog

Temperature is a critical driver of ectotherm life‐history strategies, whereby a warmer environment is associated with increased growth, reduced longevity and accelerated senescence. Increasing evidence indicates that thermal adaptation may underlie such life‐history shifts in wild populations. Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and copy number variants (CNVs) can help uncover the molecular mechanisms of temperature‐driven variation in growth, longevity and senescence. However, our understanding of these mechanisms is still limited, which reduces our ability to predict the response of non‐model ectotherms to global temperature change.

In this study, we examined the potential role of thermal adaptation in clinal shifts of life‐history traits (i.e. life span, senescence rate and recruitment) in the Columbia spotted frog Rana luteiventris along a broad temperature gradient in the western United States.

We took advantage of extensive capture–recapture datasets of 20,033 marked individuals from eight populations surveyed annually for 14–18 years to examine how mean annual temperature and precipitation influenced demographic parameters (i.e. adult survival, life span, senescence rate, recruitment and population growth). After showing that temperature was the main climatic predictor influencing demography, we used RAD‐seq data (50,829 SNPs and 6,599 putative CNVs) generated for 352 individuals from 31 breeding sites to identify the genomic signatures of thermal adaptation.

Our results showed that temperature was negatively associated with annual adult survival and reproductive life span and positively associated with senescence rate. By contrast, recruitment increased with temperature, promoting the long‐term viability of most populations. These temperature‐dependent demographic changes were associated with strong genomic signatures of thermal adaptation. We identified 148 SNP candidates associated with temperature including three SNPs located within protein‐coding genes regulating resistance to cold and hypoxia, immunity and reproduction in ranids. We also identified 39 CNV candidates (including within 38 transposable elements) for which normalized read depth was associated with temperature.

Our study indicates that both SNPs and structural variants are associated with temperature and could eventually be found to play a functional role in clinal shifts in senescence rate and life‐history strategies in R. luteiventris. These results highlight the potential role of different sources of molecular variation in the response of ectotherms to environmental temperature variation in the context of global warming.

Acclimation to future climate exposes vulnerability to cold extremes in intertidal sea hares

Highly dynamic environments like estuaries will undergo unpredictable shifts in thermal and salinity regimes with ongoing climate change. These interactive stressors fluctuate predictably and seasonally over historical periods, which has facilitated the evolution of wide environmental tolerance in some estuarine inhabitants. However, physiological and behavioral acclimatization is seasonally based for many estuarine species, meaning that a shift in the unpredictability of climate events and trends will disrupt the effectiveness of evolved tolerance mechanisms. Of particular concern are extreme cold events and high-volume precipitation events, which will acutely and unpredictably alter an estuarine habitat. The eelgrass sea hare, Phyllaplysia taylori, has documented euryhaline and eurythermal tolerance to summer conditions, but the winter environment may pose a greater challenge to seasonally relevant acclimatization scenarios. Here, we characterized lower critical thermal limits, and behavioral responses to stimuli leading up to these limits, in two central California P. taylori populations under four temperature-salinity scenarios in a laboratory acclimation experiment. Acclimation to warmer conditions significantly increased critical thermal minima, while fresher conditions resulted in high mortality. However, the surviving individuals in the fresher conditions were able to respond to stimuli more quickly overall, despite their shortest response time being at a higher temperature than the saltier-acclimated individuals. Within the environmental context of their natural habitats, we find that acclimation to climate change-induced warming will hinder sea hares' ability to weather existing and future cold extremes and precipitation events.

Phenological Response in the Trophic Levels to Climate Change in Korea

The response of the phenological events of individual species to climate change is not isolated, but is connected through interaction with other species at the same or adjacent trophic level. Using long-term phenological data observed since 1976 in Korea, whose temperature has risen more steeply than the average global temperature, this study conducted phenological analysis (differ-ences in the phenology of groups, differences in phenological shifts due to climate change, differ-ences in phenological sensitivity to climate by groups, and the change of phenological day differ-ences among interacting groups). The phenological shift of the producer group (plants) was found to be negative in all researched species, which means that it blooms quickly over the years. The regression slope of consumers (primary consumers and secondary consumers) was generally posi-tive which means that the phenological events of these species tended to be later during the study period. The inter-regional deviation of phenological events was not large for any plant except for plum tree and Black locust. In addition, regional variations in high trophic levels of secondary consumers tended to be greater than that of producers and primary consumers. Among the studied species, plum was the most sensitive to temperature, and when the temperature rose by 1 °C, the flowering time of plum decreased by 7.20 days. As a result of checking the day differences in the phenological events of the interacting species, the phenological events of species were reversed, and butterflies have appeared earlier than plum, Korean forsythia, and Korean rosebay since 1990. Using long-term data from Korea, this study investigated differences in phenological reactions among trophic groups. There is a possibility of a phenological mismatch between trophic groups in the future if global warming continues due to differences in sensitivity to climate and phenological shifts between trophic levels.

Geographic clines in Daphnia magna's circadian clock gene expression: Local adaptation to photoperiod

Nearly all organisms show daily and seasonal physiological and behavioural responses that are necessary for their survival. Often these responses are controlled by the rhythmic activity of an endogenous clock that perceives day length. Day length differs not only between seasons but also along latitudes, with different seasonal day lengths between the north and the south. Both seasonal and latitudinal differences in day length are discussed to be perceived/processed by the endogenous clock. Some species are distributed over a wide range of latitudes; it should be highly adaptive for these species to be able to time physiological responses (e.g. migration behaviour and diapause) according to the organisms' respective photoperiod, i.e. their respective seasonal and latitudinal day length. The mediator of day length is the indoleamine hormone melatonin which is synthesized by melatonin-producing enzymes (AANAT and HIOMT). These enzymes are in turn controlled by an endogenous clock. The ubiquitous aquatic keystone organism Daphnia possess clock and melatonin synthesis genes that are rhythmically expressed over 24hours. We were able to show that the 24-h rhythm of D. magna's clock persists in constant darkness and is thus truly circadian. In one particular photoperiod, all D. magna clones produced a similar melatonin concentration due to a fixed AANAT activity. However, we have demonstrated that clones originating from different latitudes are adapted to their respective photoperiod by showing a geographic cline in clock and downstream melatonin synthesis gene expression. These findings hint at the problem locally adapted organisms face when they are forced to leave their respective photoperiod, e.g. because of climate change-driven range-expansion. If such a species is incapable of adjusting its endogenous clock to an unknown photoperiod, it will likely become extinct.

The Impact of Climate Variations on the Structure of Ground Beetle (Coleoptera: Carabidae) Assemblage in Forests and Wetlands

We studied the effect of climate variations on the structure of the assemblage of ground beetles (Coleoptera: Carabidae) in a wetland and surrounding watershed forest. We analyzed the changes in the structure of the assemblage of ground beetles provoked by a two-year dry period against the background of studies carried out during the two-year wet period. Aridization influenced the structure of the assemblage of ground beetles more in wetlands than in forests. It was shown that despite the stabilizing effect of the forest on the structure of assemblages of terrestrial arthropods, the two-year dry period had a negative impact on the assemblage of ground beetles in the studied area. The Simpson dominance index of 4.9 during the wet season increased to 7.2 during the drought period. Although the total number of species during the dry period did not significantly decrease in comparison with the wet period—from 30 to 27 species—changes occurred in the trophic structure: during the drought period, the number of predators decreased. It is concluded that the resistance of forest habitats to climate aridization is somewhat exaggerated and, very likely, the structure of the community of arthropods in forests will change significantly.