The estimation of additive genetic variance of body size in a wild passerine is sensitive to the method used to estimate relatedness among the individuals

Assessing additive genetic variance is a crucial step in predicting the evolutionary response of a target trait. However, the estimated genetic variance may be sensitive to the methodology used, e.g., the way relatedness is assessed among the individuals, especially in wild populations where social pedigrees can be inaccurate. To investigate this possibility, we investigated the additive genetic variance in tarsus length, a major proxy of skeletal body size in birds. The model species was the collared flycatcher (Ficedula albicollis), a socially monogamous but genetically polygamous migratory passerine. We used two relatedness matrices to estimate the genetic variance: (1) based solely on social links and (2) a genetic similarity matrix based on a large array of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Depending on the relatedness matrix considered, we found moderate to high additive genetic variance and heritability estimates for tarsus length. In particular, the heritability estimates were higher when obtained with the genetic similarity matrix instead of the social pedigree. Our results confirm the potential for this crucial trait to respond to selection and highlight methodological concerns when calculating additive genetic variance and heritability in phenotypic traits. We conclude that using a social pedigree instead of a genetic similarity matrix to estimate relatedness among individuals in a genetically polygamous wild population may significantly deflate the estimates of additive genetic variation.

Growth in marine mammals: a review of growth patterns, composition and energy investment

Growth of structural mass and energy reserves influences individual survival, reproductive success, population and species life history. Metrics of structural growth and energy storage of individuals are often used to assess population health and reproductive potential, which can inform conservation. However, the energetic costs of tissue deposition for structural growth and energy stores and their prioritization within bioenergetic budgets are poorly documented. This is particularly true across marine mammal species as resources are accumulated at sea, limiting the ability to measure energy allocation and prioritization. We reviewed the literature on marine mammal growth to summarize growth patterns, explore their tissue compositions, assess the energetic costs of depositing these tissues and explore the tradeoffs associated with growth. Generally, marine mammals exhibit logarithmic growth. This means that the energetic costs related to growth and tissue deposition are high for early postnatal animals, but small compared to the total energy budget as animals get older. Growth patterns can also change in response to resource availability, habitat and other energy demands, such that they can serve as an indicator of individual and population health. Composition of tissues remained consistent with respect to protein and water content across species; however, there was a high degree of variability in the lipid content of both muscle (0.1-74.3%) and blubber (0.4-97.9%) due to the use of lipids as energy storage. We found that relatively few well-studied species dominate the literature, leaving data gaps for entire taxa, such as beaked whales. The purpose of this review was to identify such gaps, to inform future research priorities and to improve our understanding of how marine mammals grow and the associated energetic costs.

Thermal adaptation best explains Bergmann's and Allen's Rules across ecologically diverse shorebirds

Bergmann’s and Allen’s rules state that endotherms should be larger and have shorter appendages in cooler climates. However, the drivers of these rules are not clear. Both rules could be explained by adaptation for improved thermoregulation, including plastic responses to temperature in early life. Non-thermal explanations are also plausible as climate impacts other factors that influence size and shape, including starvation risk, predation risk, and foraging ecology. We assess the potential drivers of Bergmann’s and Allen’s rules in 30 shorebird species using extensive field data (>200,000 observations). We show birds in hot, tropical northern Australia have longer bills and smaller bodies than conspecifics in temperate, southern Australia, conforming with both ecogeographical rules. This pattern is consistent across ecologically diverse species, including migratory birds that spend early life in the Arctic. Our findings best support the hypothesis that thermoregulatory adaptation to warm climates drives latitudinal patterns in shorebird size and shape.

Global patterns in animal size and shape have been long observed, but their underlying drivers are not well understood. Here the authors suggest latitudinal patterns in shorebird size and shape are best explained by thermal adaptation to warm climates.

Genetics and Plasticity Are Responsible for Ecogeographical Patterns in a Recent Invasion

Patterns of covariation between phenotype and environment are presumed to be reflective of local adaptation, and therefore translate to a meaningful influence on an individual’s overall fitness within that specific environment. However, these environmentally driven patterns may be the result of numerous and interacting processes, such as genetic variation, epigenetic variation, or plastic non-heritable variation. Understanding the relative importance of different environmental variables on underlying genetic patterns and resulting phenotypes is fundamental to understanding adaptation. Invasive systems are excellent models for such investigations, given their propensity for rapid evolution. This study uses reduced representation sequencing data paired with phenotypic data to examine whether important phenotypic traits in invasive starlings (Sturnus vulgaris) within Australia appear to be highly heritable (presumably genetic) or appear to vary with environmental gradients despite underlying genetics (presumably non-heritable plasticity). We also sought to determine which environmental variables, if any, play the strongest role shaping genetic and phenotypic patterns. We determined that environmental variables—particularly elevation—play an important role in shaping allelic trends in Australian starlings and may also reinforce neutral genetic patterns resulting from historic introduction regime. We examined a range of phenotypic traits that appear to be heritable (body mass and spleen mass) or negligibly heritable (e.g. beak surface area and wing length) across the starlings’ Australian range. Using SNP variants associated with each of these phenotypes, we identify key environmental variables that correlate with genetic patterns, specifically that temperature and precipitation putatively play important roles shaping phenotype in this species. Finally, we determine that overall phenotypic variation is correlated with underlying genetic variation, and that these interact positively with the level of vegetation variation within a region, suggesting that ground cover plays an important role in shaping selection and plasticity of phenotypic traits within the starlings of Australia.

Niche-trait relationships at individual and population level in three co-occurring passerine species

The niche variation hypothesis (NVH) predicts that populations with wider niches exhibit greater morphological variation through increased interindividual differences in both niche and morphology. In this study, we examined niche-trait relationships in three passerine species (Cyanoderma ruficeps, Sinosuthora webbiana, and Zosterops simplex). A total of 289 C. ruficeps from 7 sites, 259 S. webbiana from 8 sites, and 144 Z. simplex from 6 sites were sampled along an elevation gradient (0-2,700 m) in Taiwan from 2009 to 2017. We measured bill traits (length, width, and depth of bill) and body size traits (length of head, tarsus, and wing) of the birds, which were reduced to four principal components (bill PC1, bill PC2, body size PC1, and body size PC2). We collected feather tissues for stable carbon and nitrogen isotope analyses to quantify their isotope niche. We quantified interindividual differences in isotope space and trait space with four diversity metrics (divergence, dispersion, evenness, and uniqueness) and tested whether interindividual differences in isotope space and trait space are positively associated. We quantified population isotope niche width by Bayesian ellipse area and population morphological variation by variances of the PCs. The results showed that individual uniqueness in isotope niche and bill morphology (average closeness of individuals within the population isotope/trait space) were positively associated across three species. Furthermore, isotope niche width and bill PC1 (reflecting the size of bill) variation at population level were also positively associated across the three species, supporting the NVH. Of the three species, C. ruficeps and S. webbiana showed stronger support for the NVH than Z. simplex, possibly due to the latter having narrower elevational distribution and a more specialized, plant-based diet. The diversity metrics represented different aspects of interindividual differences in niche/trait space, and for the passerines, individual uniqueness appeared to play an important role in their niche-trait dynamics.

Life history and habitat do not mediate temporal changes in body size due to climate warming in rodents

Temporal changes in body size have been documented in a number of vertebrate species, with different contested drivers being suggested to explain these changes. Among these are climate warming, resource availability, competition, predation risk, human population density, island effects and others. Both life history traits (intrinsic factors such as lifespan and reproductive rate) and habitat (extrinsic factors such as vegetation type, latitude and elevation) are expected to mediate the existence of a significant temporal response of body size to climate warming but neither have been widely investigated. Using examples of rodents, we predicted that both life history traits and habitat might explain the probability of temporal response using two tests of this hypothesis. Firstly, taking advantage of new data from museum collections spanning the last 106 years, we investigated geographical and temporal variation in cranial size (a proxy for body size) in six African rodent species of two murid subfamilies (Murinae and Gerbillinae) of varying life history, degree of commensality, range size, and habitat. Two species, the commensal Mastomys natalensis, and the non-commensal Otomys unisulcatus showed significant temporal changes in body size, with the former increasing and the latter decreasing, in relation with climate warming. Commensalism could explain the increase in size with time due to steadily increasing food availability through increased agricultural production. Apart from this, we found no general life history or habitat predictors of a temporal response in African rodents. Secondly, in order to further test this hypothesis, we incorporated our data into a meta-analysis based on published literature on temporal responses in rodents, resulting in a combined dataset for 50 species from seven families worldwide; among these, 29 species showed no significant change, eight showed a significant increase in size, and 13 showed a decline in size. Using a binomial logistic regression model for these metadata, we found that none of our chosen life history or habitat predictors could significantly explain the probability of a temporal response to climate warming, reinforcing our conclusion based on the more detailed data from the six African species.

Bergmann's rule is followed at multiple stages of postembryonic development in a long-distance migratory songbird

Bergmann’s rule is a well‐established, ecogeographical principle that states that body size varies positively with latitude, reflecting the thermoregulatory benefits of larger bodies as temperatures decline. However, this principle does not seem to easily apply to migratory species that are able to avoid the extreme temperatures during winter at higher latitudes. Further, little is known about the ontogeny of this relationship across life stages or how it is influenced by ongoing global climate change. To address these knowledge gaps, we assessed the contemporary relationship between latitude and body size in a long‐distance migratory species, the prothonotary warbler (Protonotaria citrea) across life stages (egg to adult) on their breeding grounds. We also measured historic eggs (1865‐1961) to assess if the relationship between latitude and size during this life stage has changed over time. In accordance with Bergmann’s rule, we found a positive relationship between latitude and body mass during all post‐embryonic life stages, from early nestling stage through adulthood. We observed this same predicted pattern with historic eggs, but contemporary eggs exhibited the reverse (negative) relationship. We suggest that these results indicate a genetic component to this pattern and speculate that selection for larger body size in altricial nestlings as latitude increases may possibly drive the pattern in migratory species as even rare extreme cold weather events may cause mortality during early life stages. Furthermore, the opposite relationships observed in eggs, dependent on time period, may be related to the rapidly warming environments of higher latitudes that is associated with climate change. Although it is unclear what mechanism(s) would allow for this recent reversal in eggs (but still allow for its maintenance in later life stages). This evidence of a reversal suggests that anthropogenic climate change may be in the process of altering one of the longest‐standing principles in ecology.

Spatial predictors of genomic and phenotypic variation differ in a lowland Middle American bird (Icterus gularis)

Spatial patterns of intraspecific variation are shaped by geographical distance among populations, historical changes in gene flow and interactions with local environments. Although these factors are not mutually exclusive and operate on both genomic and phenotypic variation, it is unclear how they affect these two axes of variation. We address this question by exploring the predictors of genomic and phenotypic divergence in Icterus gularis, a broadly distributed Middle American bird that exhibits marked geographical variation in body size across its range. We combined a comprehensive single nucleotide polymorphism and phenotypic data set to test whether genome-wide genetic and phenotypic differentiation are best explained by (i) isolation by distance, (ii) isolation by history or (iii) isolation by environment. We find that the pronounced genetic and phenotypic variation in I. gularis are only partially correlated and differ regarding spatial predictors. Whereas genomic variation is largely explained by historical barriers to gene flow, phenotypic diversity can be best predicted by contemporary environmental heterogeneity. Our genomic analyses reveal strong phylogeographical structure coinciding with the Chivela Pass at the Isthmus of Tehuantepec that was formed during the Pleistocene, when populations were isolated in north-south refugia. In contrast, we found a strong association between body size and environmental variables, such as temperature and precipitation. The relationship between body size and local climate is consistent with a pattern produced by either natural selection or environmental plasticity. Overall, these results provide empirical evidence for why phenotypic and genomic data are often in conflict in taxonomic and phylogeographical studies.

No evidence that warmer temperatures are associated with selection for smaller body sizes

Reductions in animal body size over recent decades are often interpreted as an adaptive evolutionary response to climate warming. However, for reductions in size to reflect adaptive evolution, directional selection on body size within populations must have become negative, or where already negative, to have become more so, as temperatures increased. To test this hypothesis, we performed traditional and phylogenetic meta-analyses of the association between annual estimates of directional selection on body size from wild populations and annual mean temperatures from 39 longitudinal studies. We found no evidence that warmer environments were associated with selection for smaller size. Instead, selection consistently favoured larger individuals, and was invariant to temperature. These patterns were similar in ectotherms and endotherms. An analysis using year rather than temperature revealed similar patterns, suggesting no evidence that selection has changed over time, and also indicating that the lack of association with annual temperature was not an artefact of choosing an erroneous time window for aggregating the temperature data. Although phenotypic trends in size will be driven by a combination of genetic and environmental factors, our results suggest little evidence for a necessary ingredient-negative directional selection-for declines in body size to be considered an adaptive evolutionary response to changing selection pressures.

Temporally replicated DNA methylation patterns in great tit using reduced representation bisulfite sequencing

Seasonal timing of reproduction is an important fitness trait in many plants and animals but the underlying molecular mechanism for this trait is poorly known. DNA methylation is known to affect timing of reproduction in various organisms and is therefore a potential mechanism also in birds. Here we describe genome wide data aiming to detect temporal changes in methylation in relation to timing of breeding using artificial selection lines of great tits (Parus major) exposed to contrasting temperature treatments. Methylation levels of DNA extracted from erythrocytes were examined using reduced representation bisulfite sequencing (RRBS). In total, we obtained sequencing data from 63 libraries over four different time points from 16 birds with on average 20 million quality filtered reads per library. These data describe individual level temporal variation in DNA methylation throughout the breeding season under experimental temperature regimes and provides a resource for future studies investigating the role of temporal changes in DNA methylation in timing of reproduction.

Evolutionary stasis of a heritable morphological trait in a wild fish population despite apparent directional selection

Comparing observed versus theoretically expected evolutionary responses is important for our understanding of the evolutionary process, and for assessing how species may cope with anthropogenic change. Here, we document directional selection for larger female size in Atlantic salmon, using pedigree-derived estimates of lifetime reproductive success as a fitness measure. We show the trait is heritable and, thus, capable of responding to selection. The Breeder's Equation, which predicts microevolution as the product of phenotypic selection and heritability, predicted evolution of larger size. This was at odds, however, with the observed lack of either phenotypic or genetic temporal trends in body size, a so-called "paradox of stasis." To investigate this paradox, we estimated the additive genetic covariance between trait and fitness, which provides a prediction of evolutionary change according to Robertson's secondary theorem of selection (STS) that is unbiased by missing variables. The STS prediction was consistent with the observed stasis. Decomposition of phenotypic selection gradients into genetic and environmental components revealed a potential upward bias, implying unmeasured factors that covary with trait and fitness. These results showcase the power of pedigreed, wild population studies-which have largely been limited to birds and mammals-to study evolutionary processes on contemporary timescales.

Heritability of head size in a hunted large carnivore, the brown bear (Ursus arctos)

Wild animal populations experience selection pressures from both natural and anthropogenic sources. The availability of extensive pedigrees is increasing along with our ability to quantify the heritability and evolvability of phenotypic traits and thus the speed and potential for evolutionary change in wild populations. The environment may also affect gene expressions in individuals, which may in turn affect the potential of phenotypic traits to respond to selection. Knowledge about the relationship between the genetic and environmental components of phenotypic variation is particularly relevant, given ongoing anthropogenically driven global change. Using a quantitative genetic mixed model, we disentangled the genetic and environmental components of phenotypic variance in a large carnivore, the brown bear (Ursus arctos). We combined a pedigree covering ~1,500 individual bears over seven generations with location data from 413 bears, as well as data on bear density, habitat characteristics, and climatic conditions. We found a narrow-sense heritability of 0.24 (95% CrI: 0.06-0.38) for brown bear head size, showing that the trait can respond to selection at a moderate speed. The environment contributed substantially to phenotypic variation, and we partitioned this into birth year (5.9%), nonadditive among-individual genetic (15.0%), and residual (50.4%) environmental effects. Brown bear head circumference showed an evolvability of 0.2%, which can generate large changes in the trait mean over some hundreds of generations. Our study is among the first to quantify heritability of a trait in a hunted large carnivore population. Such knowledge about the degree to which species experiencing hunting can respond to selection is crucial for conservation and to make informed management decisions. We show that including important environmental variables when analyzing heritability is key to understanding the dynamics of the evolutionary potential of phenotypic traits.

Are animals shrinking due to climate change? Temperature-mediated selection on body mass in mountain wagtails

Climate change appears to affect body size of animals whose optimal size in part depends on temperature. However, attribution of observed body size changes to climate change requires an understanding of the selective pressures acting on body size under different temperatures. We examined the link between temperature and body mass in a population of mountain wagtails (Motacilla clara) in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, between 1976 and 1999, where temperature increased by 0.18 [Formula: see text]C. The wagtails became lighter by 0.035 g per year. Partitioning this trend, we found that only a small part of the effect (0.009 g/year) was due to individuals losing weight and a large part (0.027 g/year) was due to lighter individuals replacing heavier ones. Only the latter component was statistically significant. Apparently, the wagtails were reacting to selection for reduced weight. Examining survival, we found that selection was temperature-mediated, i.e., lighter individuals survived better under high temperatures, whereas heavier individuals survived better under low temperatures. Our results thus support the hypothesis that temperature drove the decline in body mass in this wagtail population and provides one of the first demonstrations of the selective forces underlying such trends.

Effects of parental and nest-site characteristics on nestling quality in the Tree Swallow (Tachycineta bicolor)

Natal environment and parental quality can influence offspring phenotype, including physiological and morphological traits. We investigated how offspring morphology and feather corticosterone (CORTf; a physiological index of allostatic load) may be related to nest environment and parental characteristics by cross-fostering 3-day-old nestling Tree Swallows (Tachycineta bicolor (Vieillot, 1808)) between quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) and plywood nest boxes that differed in microclimate. We evaluated the relative importance of natal influences, common rearing environment, and nest-box environment on nestling quality. Nestlings raised in quaking aspen boxes tended to have lower CORTf, although this result only approached significance. Nestling body mass was best predicted by the biological mother’s mass and random effects of natal and rearing nest identity, wing length was best predicted by random effects of rearing nest, and head–bill length was best predicted by random effects of natal nest. Therefore, nest microclimate was more important than maternal characteristics in predicting nestling physiology (CORTf), while nestling morphology was influenced by maternal morphology, as well as natal and rearing nest environments. Our study provides important information about how environmental and parental influences affect nestling phenotype and will help future studies interpret similar morphological and physiological indices of nestling quality.

Characterizing selection in black-throated blue warblers using a sexual network approach

Our understanding of trait evolution is built upon studies that examine the correlation between traits and fitness, most of which implicitly assume all individuals experience similar selective environments. However, accounting for differences in selective pressures, such as variation in the social environment, can advance our understanding of how selection shapes individual traits and subsequent fitness. In this study, we test whether variation in the social environment affects selection on individual phenotype. We apply a new sexual network framework to quantify each male's social environment as the mean body size of his primary competitors. We test for direct and social selection on male body size using a 10-year data set on black-throated blue warblers (Setophaga caerulescens), a territorial species for which body size is hypothesized to mediate competition for mates. We found that direct selection on body size was weak and nonsignificant, as was social selection via the body size of the males' competitors. Analysing both types of selection simultaneously allows us to firmly reject a role for body size in competitive interactions between males and subsequent male fitness in this population. We evaluate the application of the sexual network approach to empirical data and suggest that other phenotypic traits such as song characteristics and plumage may be more relevant than body size for male-male competition in this small passerine bird.

Climate change and body size trends in aquatic and terrestrial endotherms: Does habitat matter?

Several studies have claimed that reduction in body size comprises a nearly universal response to global warming; however, doubts about the validity of this pattern for endothermic species have been raised recently. Accordingly, we assessed temporal changes in body mass for 27 bird and 17 mammal species, to evaluate if a reduction in body size during the 20^th century is a widespread phenomenon among endothermic vertebrates. In addition, we tested if there are differences in the temporal change in size between birds and mammals, aquatic and terrestrial species, and the first and second half of the 20^th century. Overall, six species increased their body mass, 21 species showed no significant changes in size, and 17 species decreased their body mass during the 20th century. Temporal changes in body mass were similar for birds and mammals, but strongly differ between aquatic and terrestrial species: while most of the aquatic species increased or did not change in body mass, most terrestrial species decreased in size. In addition, we found that, at least in terrestrial birds, the mean value of the correlation between body mass and year of collection differs between the first half and the second half of the 20^th century, being close to zero for the former period but negative for the later one. To our knowledge, this is the first study showing that temporal changes in body mass differ between aquatic and terrestrial species in both mammals and birds.

Long-term continental changes in wing length, but not bill length, of a long-distance migratory shorebird

We compiled a >50‐year record of morphometrics for semipalmated sandpipers (Calidris pusilla), a shorebird species with a Nearctic breeding distribution and intercontinental migration to South America. Our data included >57,000 individuals captured 1972–2015 at five breeding locations and three major stopover sites, plus 139 museum specimens collected in earlier decades. Wing length increased by ca. 1.5 mm (>1%) prior to 1980, followed by a decrease of 3.85 mm (nearly 4%) over the subsequent 35 years. This can account for previously reported changes in metrics at a migratory stopover site from 1985 to 2006. Wing length decreased at a rate of 1,098 darwins, or 0.176 haldanes, within the ranges of other field studies of phenotypic change. Bill length, in contrast, showed no consistent change over the full period of our study. Decreased body size as a universal response of animal populations to climate warming, and several other potential mechanisms, are unable to account for the increasing and decreasing wing length pattern observed. We propose that the post‐WWII near‐extirpation of falcon populations and their post‐1973 recovery driven by the widespread use and subsequent limitation on DDT in North America selected initially for greater flight efficiency and latterly for greater agility. This predation danger hypothesis accounts for many features of the morphometric data and deserves further investigation in this and other species.

Evidence for r- and K-selection in a wild bird population: a reciprocal link between ecology and evolution

Understanding the variation in selection pressure on key life-history traits is crucial in our rapidly changing world. Density is rarely considered as a selective agent. To study its importance, we partition phenotypic selection in fluctuating environments into components representing the population growth rate at low densities and the strength of density dependence, using a new stochastic modelling framework. We analysed the number of eggs laid per season in a small song-bird, the great tit, and found balancing selection favouring large clutch sizes at small population densities and smaller clutches in years with large populations. A significant interaction between clutch size and population size in the regression for the Malthusian fitness reveals that those females producing large clutch sizes at small population sizes also are those that show the strongest reduction in fitness when population size is increased. This provides empirical support for ongoing r- and K-selection in this population, favouring phenotypes with large growth rates r at small population sizes and phenotypes with high competitive skills when populations are close to the carrying capacity K This selection causes long-term fluctuations around a stable mean clutch size caused by variation in population size, implying that r- and K-selection is an important mechanism influencing phenotypic evolution in fluctuating environments. This provides a general link between ecological dynamics and evolutionary processes, operating through a joint influence of density dependence and environmental stochasticity on fluctuations in population size.

Do foraging methods in winter affect morphology during growth in juvenile snow geese?

Physical exertion during growth can affect ultimate size and density of skeletal structures. Such changes from different exercise regimes may explain morphological differences between groups, such as those exhibited by lesser snow geese (Chen caerulescens caerulescens; hereafter snow geese) foraging in southwest Louisiana. In rice‐prairie habitats (hereafter rice‐prairies), snow geese bite off or graze aboveground vegetation, whereas they dig or grub for subterranean plant parts in adjacent coastal marshes. Grubbing involves considerably more muscular exertion than does grazing. Thus, we hypothesized that rates of bone formation and growth would be lower for juveniles wintering in rice‐prairies than those in coastal marshes, resulting in smaller bill and skull features at adulthood. First, we tested this exertion hypothesis by measuring bills, skulls, and associated musculature from arrival to departure (November–February) in both habitats in southwest Louisiana, using both banded birds and collected specimens. Second, we used the morphological data to test an alternative hypothesis, which states that smaller bill dimensions in rice‐prairies evolved because of hybridization with Ross's geese (C. rossii). Under the exertion hypothesis, we predicted that bill and skull bones of juveniles would grow at different rates between habitats. However, we found that bill and skull bones of juveniles grew similarly between habitats, thus failing to support the exertion hypothesis. Morphometrics were more likely to differ by sex or change with sampling date than to differ by habitat. We predicted that significant, consistent skewness toward smaller birds could indicate hybridization with Ross's geese, but no skewness was observed in our morphological data, which fails to support the hybridization hypothesis. Further research is needed to clarify whether snow geese wintering in Louisiana represent a single polymorphic population that segregates into individually preferred habitats, which we believe at present to be more likely as an explanation than two ecologically and spatially distinct morphotypes.

Differential plasticity of size and mass to environmental change in a hibernating mammal

Morphological changes following changes in species' distribution and phenology have been suggested to be the third universal response to global environmental change. Although structural size and body mass result from different genetic, physiological, and ecological mechanisms, they are used interchangeably in studies evaluating population responses to environmental change. Using a 22-year (1991-2013) dataset including 1768 individuals, we investigated the coupled dynamics of size and mass in a hibernating mammal, the Alpine marmot (Marmota marmota), in response to local environmental conditions. We (i) quantified temporal trends in both traits, (ii) determined the environmental drivers of trait dynamics, and (iii) identified the life-history processes underlying the observed changes. Both phenotypic traits were followed through life: we focused on the initial trait value (juvenile size and mass) and later-life development (annual change in size [Δsize] and mass [Δmass]). First, we demonstrated contrasting dynamics between size and mass over the study period. Juvenile size and subsequent Δsize showed significant declines, whereas juvenile mass and subsequent Δmass remained constant. As a consequence of smaller size associated with a similar mass, individuals were in better condition in recent years. Second, size and mass showed different sensitivities to environmental variables. Both traits benefited from early access to resources in spring, whereas Δmass, particularly in early life, also responded to summer and winter conditions. Third, the interannual variation in both traits was caused by changes in early life development. Our study supports the importance of considering the differences between size and mass responses to the environment when evaluating the mechanisms underlying population dynamics. The current practice of focusing on only one trait in population modeling can lead to misleading conclusions when evaluating species' resilience to contemporary climate change.

Gauging the Purported Costs of Public Data Archiving for Long-Term Population Studies

It was recently proposed that long-term population studies be exempted from the expectation that authors publicly archive the primary data underlying published articles. Such studies are valuable to many areas of ecological and evolutionary biological research, and multiple risks to their viability were anticipated as a result of public data archiving (PDA), ultimately all stemming from independent reuse of archived data. However, empirical assessment was missing, making it difficult to determine whether such fears are realistic. I addressed this by surveying data packages from long-term population studies archived in the Dryad Digital Repository. I found no evidence that PDA results in reuse of data by independent parties, suggesting the purported costs of PDA for long-term population studies have been overstated.

Contrasting effects of climate on juvenile body size in a Southern Hemisphere passerine bird

Despite extensive research on the topic, it has been difficult to reach general conclusions as to the effects of climate change on morphology in wild animals: in particular, the effects of warming temperatures have been associated with increases, decreases or stasis in body size in different populations. Here, we use a fine-scale analysis of associations between weather and offspring body size in a long-term study of a wild passerine bird, the cooperatively breeding superb fairy-wren, in south-eastern Australia to show that such variation in the direction of associations occurs even within a population. Over the past 26 years, our study population has experienced increased temperatures, increased frequency of heatwaves and reduced rainfall - but the mean body mass of chicks has not changed. Despite the apparent stasis, mass was associated with weather across the previous year, but in multiple counteracting ways. Firstly, (i) chick mass was negatively associated with extremely recent heatwaves, but there also positive associations with (ii) higher maximum temperatures and (iii) higher rainfall, both occurring in a period prior to and during the nesting period, and finally (iv) a longer-term negative association with higher maximum temperatures following the previous breeding season. Our results illustrate how a morphological trait may be affected by both short- and long-term effects of the same weather variable at multiple times of the year and that these effects may act in different directions. We also show that climate within the relevant time windows may not be changing in the same way, such that overall long-term temporal trends in body size may be minimal. Such complexity means that analytical approaches that search for a single 'best' window for one particular weather variable may miss other relevant information, and is also likely to make analyses of phenotypic plasticity and prediction of longer-term population dynamics difficult.

What Is a Mild Winter? Regional Differences in Within-Species Responses to Climate Change

Climate change is known to affect ecosystems globally, but our knowledge of its impact on large and widespread mammals, and possibly population-specific responses is still sparse. We investigated large-scale and long-term effects of climate change on local population dynamics using the wild boar (Sus scrofa L.) as a model species. Our results show that population increases across Europe are strongly associated with increasingly mild winters, yet with region-specific threshold temperatures for the onset of exponential growth. Additionally, we found that abundant availability of critical food resources, e.g. beech nuts, can outweigh the negative effects of cold winters on population growth of wild boar. Availability of beech nuts is highly variable and highest in years of beech mast which increased in frequency since 1980, according to our data. We conclude that climate change drives population growth of wild boar directly by relaxing the negative effect of cold winters on survival and reproduction, and indirectly by increasing food availability. However, region-specific responses need to be considered in order to fully understand a species’ demographic response to climate change.

Individual consistency and phenotypic plasticity in rockhopper penguins: female but not male body mass links environmental conditions to reproductive investment

In marine habitats, increasing ocean temperatures due to global climate change may distinctly reduce nutrient and consequently food availability for seabirds. Food availability is a known driver of body mass and reproductive investment in birds, but these traits may also depend on individual effects. Penguins show extreme intra-annual body mass variation and rely on accumulated body reserves for successful breeding. However, no study so far has tested individual consistency and phenotypic responses in body mass and reproductive investment in this taxon. Using a unique dataset on individually marked female and male southern rockhopper penguins (Eudyptes chrysocome chrysocome) across six years, we investigated 1) the individual consistency in body mass (measured at egg laying), body condition and reproductive investment across years, subsequently 2) identified the best-explanatory temperature-related environmental variables for female and male body mass, and 3) tested the effect of female and male body mass on reproductive investment. Body mass, body condition and reproductive investment were all highly repeatable. As body condition should control for the structural size of the birds, the similarly high repeatability estimates for body mass and body condition suggested that the consistent between-individual body mass differences were independent of structural size. This supported the use of body mass for the subsequent analyses. Body mass was higher under colder environmental conditions (positive Southern Annular Mode), but the overall phenotypic response appeared limited. Reproductive investment increased with female but not male body mass. While environmental effects on body mass in our study period were rather small, one can expect that ongoing global climate change will lead to a deterioration of food availability and we might therefore in the long-term expect a phenotypical decline in body mass and reproductive investment.

Scale-dependent phenological synchrony between songbirds and their caterpillar food source

In seasonal environments, the timing of reproduction has important fitness consequences. Our current understanding of the determinants of reproductive phenology in natural systems is limited because studies often ignore the spatial scale on which animals interact with their environment. When animals use a restricted amount of space and the phenology of resources is spatially variable, selection may favor sensitivity to small-scale environmental variation. Population-level studies of how songbirds track the changing phenology of their food source have been influential in explaining how populations adjust to changing climates but have largely ignored the spatial scale at which phenology varies. We explored whether individual great tits (Parus major) synchronize their breeding with phenological events in their local environment and investigated the spatial scale at which this occurs. We demonstrate marked variation in the timing of food availability, at a spatial scale relevant to individual birds, and that such local variation predicts the breeding phenology of individuals. Using a 45-year data set, we show that measures of vegetation phenology at very local scales are the most important predictors of timing of breeding within years, suggesting that birds can fine-tune their phenology to that of other trophic levels. Knowledge of the determinants of variation in reproductive behavior at different spatial scales is likely to be critical in understanding how selection operates on breeding phenology in natural populations.

Linking macrotrends and microrates: Re-evaluating microevolutionary support for Cope's rule

Cope's rule, wherein a lineage increases in body size through time, was originally motivated by macroevolutionary patterns observed in the fossil record. More recently, some authors have argued that evidence exists for generally positive selection on individual body size in contemporary populations, providing a microevolutionary mechanism for Cope's rule. If larger body size confers individual fitness advantages as the selection estimates suggest, thereby explaining Cope's rule, then body size should increase over microevolutionary time scales. We test this corollary by assembling a large database of studies reporting changes in phenotypic body size through time in contemporary populations, as well as studies reporting average breeding values for body size through time. Trends in body size were quite variable with an absence of any general trend, and many populations trended toward smaller body sizes. Although selection estimates can be interpreted to support Cope's rule, our results suggest that actual rates of phenotypic change for body size cannot. We discuss potential reasons for this discrepancy and its implications for the understanding of Cope's rule.

Severe recent decrease of adult body mass in a declining insectivorous bird population

Migratory bird species that feed on air-borne insects are experiencing widespread regional declines, but these remain poorly understood. Agricultural intensification in the breeding range is often regarded as one of the main drivers of these declines. Here, we tested the hypothesis that body mass in breeding individuals should reflect habitat quality in an aerial insectivore, the tree swallow (Tachycineta bicolor), along a gradient of agricultural intensity. Our dataset was collected over 7 years (2005-2011) and included 2918 swallow captures and 1483 broods. Analyses revealed a substantial decline of the population over the course of the study (-19% occupancy rate), mirrored by decreasing body mass. This trend was especially severe in females, representing a total loss of 8% of their mass. Reproductive success was negatively influenced by intensive agriculture, but did not decrease over time. Interestingly, variation in body mass was independent of breeding habitat quality, leading us to suggest that this decline in body mass may result from carry-over effects from non-breeding areas and affect population dynamics through reduced survival. This work contributes to the growing body of evidence suggesting that declines in migratory aerial insectivores are driven by multiple, complex factors requiring better knowledge of year-round habitat use.

Morphological change to birds over 120 years is not explained by thermal adaptation to climate change

Changes in morphology have been postulated as one of the responses of animals to global warming, with increasing ambient temperatures leading to decreasing body size. However, the results of previous studies are inconsistent. Problems related to the analyses of trends in body size may be related to the short-term nature of data sets, to the selection of surrogates for body size, to the appropriate models for data analyses, and to the interpretation as morphology may change in response to ecological drivers other than climate and irrespective of size. Using generalized additive models, we analysed trends in three morphological traits of 4529 specimens of eleven bird species collected between 1889 and 2010 in southern Germany and adjacent areas. Changes and trends in morphology over time were not consistent when all species and traits were considered. Six of the eleven species displayed a significant association of tarsus length with time but the direction of the association varied. Wing length decreased in the majority of species but there were few significant trends in wing pointedness. Few of the traits were significantly associated with mean ambient temperatures. We argue that although there are significant changes in morphology over time there is no consistent trend for decreasing body size and therefore no support for the hypothesis of decreasing body size because of climate change. Non-consistent trends of change in surrogates for size within species indicate that fluctuations are influenced by factors other than temperature, and that not all surrogates may represent size appropriately. Future analyses should carefully select measures of body size and consider alternative hypotheses for change.

Climate warming and Bergmann's rule through time: is there any evidence?

Climate change is expected to induce many ecological and evolutionary changes. Among these is the hypothesis that climate warming will cause a reduction in body size. This hypothesis stems from Bergmann's rule, a trend whereby species exhibit a smaller body size in warmer climates, and larger body size under colder conditions in endotherms. The mechanisms behind this rule are still debated, and it is not clear whether Bergmann's rule can be extended to predict the effects of climate change through time. We reviewed the primary literature for evidence (i) of a decrease in body size in response to climate warming, (ii) that changing body size is an adaptive response and (iii) that these responses are evolutionary or plastic. We found weak evidence for changes in body size through time as predicted by Bergmann's rule. Only three studies investigated the adaptive nature of these size decreases. Of these, none reported evidence of selection for smaller size or of a genetic basis for the size change, suggesting that size decreases could be due to nonadaptive plasticity in response to changing environmental conditions. More studies are needed before firm conclusions can be drawn about the underlying causes of these changes in body size in response to a warming climate.

The relative importance of predation risk and water temperature in maintaining Bergmann's rule in a marine ectotherm

Bergmann's rule-an increase in body size with latitude-correlates with latitudinal declines in ambient temperature and predation risk, but relatively few studies simultaneously explore the relative importance of these factors. Along temperate Atlantic shorelines, the isopod Idotea balthica from high latitudes are 53% longer on average than isopods from low latitudes. When reared at 6°-24°C, juveniles increased growth and development rates with temperature. Because the increase in growth rate with temperature outstripped increases in development rate, female size at maturity increased with temperature. This thermal sensitivity of growth cannot account for the latitudinal pattern in body size. Within temperature treatments, females from low latitudes reached sexual maturity at younger ages and at a smaller size than did females from higher latitudes. This shift in life-history strategy is predicted by latitudinal declines in predation pressure, which we tested using field-tethering experiments. Overall, isopods at low latitudes had a 44% greater mortality risk from daytime predators relative to isopods at higher latitudes. We conclude that a latitudinal gradient in predation risk, not temperature, is principally responsible for Bergmann's rule in I. balthica. Increases in body size during future warming of oceans may be constrained by local patterns of predation risk.

Is sociality required for the evolution of communicative complexity? Evidence weighed against alternative hypotheses in diverse taxonomic groups

Complex social communication is expected to evolve whenever animals engage in many and varied social interactions; that is, sociality should promote communicative complexity. Yet, informal comparisons among phylogenetically independent taxonomic groups seem to cast doubt on the putative role of social factors in the evolution of complex communication. Here, we provide a formal test of the sociality hypothesis alongside alternative explanations for the evolution of communicative complexity. We compiled data documenting variations in signal complexity among closely related species for several case study groups--ants, frogs, lizards and birds--and used new phylogenetic methods to investigate the factors underlying communication evolution. Social factors were only implicated in the evolution of complex visual signals in lizards. Ecology, and to some degree allometry, were most likely explanations for complexity in the vocal signals of frogs (ecology) and birds (ecology and allometry). There was some evidence for adaptive evolution in the pheromone complexity of ants, although no compelling selection pressure was identified. For most taxa, phylogenetic null models were consistently ranked above adaptive models and, for some taxa, signal complexity seems to have accumulated in species via incremental or random changes over long periods of evolutionary time. Becoming social presumably leads to the origin of social communication in animals, but its subsequent influence on the trajectory of signal evolution has been neither clear-cut nor general among taxonomic groups.

Cross-generational effects of climate change on expression of a sexually selected trait

Sexually selected traits and early breeding are often correlated with quality in birds: individuals that breed earlier in the season have more elaborate traits and raise more surviving offspring [1, 2]. As global climate warms, breeding date for many temperate birds is advancing [3, 4], but we lack corresponding information on climate-induced variation in sexual selection. Here, we investigated influences of climate on a sexually selected plumage trait in a Himalayan warbler (Phylloscopus humei). We found that when spring is warm, birds breed early. Subsequent to an early-breeding year, adults express relatively large sexually selected traits and rear offspring that also develop large traits. The positive effects of early breeding, plus the across-year correlation between parent and offspring cohorts, predict that warmer climates should lead to increases in trait size. However, trait size has not increased over the past 25 years, even though mean breeding date has advanced. We show that whereas warm springs have positive effects on trait size, warm summers have negative effects due to increased feather wear. Apparent stasis in the size of a sexually selected trait thus masks large, conflicting influences of climate change. Continued climate warming has the potential to affect the honesty of sexual signals, as trait expression and condition become increasingly disassociated.