Transient demographic dynamics of recovering fish populations shaped by past climate variability, harvest, and management

Large-scale commercial harvesting and climate-induced fluctuations in ocean properties shape the dynamics of marine populations as interdependent drivers at varied timescales. Persistent selective removals of larger, older members of a population can distort its demographic structure, eroding resilience to fluctuations in habitat conditions and thus amplifying volatility in transient dynamics. Many historically depleted marine fish stocks have begun showing signs of recovery in recent decades following the implementation of stricter management measures. But these interventions coincide with accelerated changes in the oceans triggered by increasingly warmer, more variable climates. Applying multilevel models to annual estimates of demographic metrics of 38 stocks comprising 11 species across seven northeast Atlantic ecoregions, this study explores how time-varying local and regional climates contributed to the transient dynamics of recovering populations exposed to variable fishing pressures moderated by management actions. Analyses reveal that progressive reductions in fishing pressure and shifting climate conditions discontinuously shaped rebuilding patterns of the stocks through restorations of maternal demographic structure (reversing age truncation) and reproductive capacity. As the survival rate and demographic structure of reproductive fish improved, transient growth became less sensitive to variability in recruitment and juvenile survival and more to that in adult survival. As the biomass of reproductive fish rose, recruitment success also became increasingly regulated by density-dependent processes involving higher numbers of older fish. When reductions in fishing pressure were insufficient or delayed, however, stocks became further depleted, with more eroded demographic structures. Although warmer local climates in spawning seasons promoted recruitment success in some ecoregions, changing climates in recent decades began adversely affecting reproductive performances overall, amplifying sensitivities to recruitment variability. These shared patterns underscore the value of demographic transients in developing robust strategies for managing marine resources. Such strategies could form the foundation for effective applications of adaptive measures resilient to future environmental change.

Generation time and seasonal migration explain variation in spatial population synchrony across European bird species

Spatial population synchrony is common among populations of the same species and is an important predictor of extinction risk. Despite the potential consequences for metapopulation persistence, we still largely lack understanding of what makes one species more likely to be synchronized than another given the same environmental conditions. Generally, environmental conditions in a shared environment or a species' sensitivity to the environment can explain the extent of synchrony. Populations that are closer together experience more similar fluctuations in their environments than those populations that are further apart and are therefore more synchronized. The relative importance of environmental and demographic stochasticity for population dynamics is strongly linked to species' life-history traits, such as pace of life, which may impact population synchrony. For populations that migrate, there may be multiple environmental conditions at different locations driving synchrony. However, the importance of life history and migration tactics in determining patterns of spatial population synchrony have rarely been explored empirically. We therefore hypothesize that increasing generation time, a proxy for pace of life, would decrease spatial population synchrony and that migrants would be less synchronized than resident species. We used population abundance data on breeding birds from four countries to investigate patterns of spatial population synchrony in growth rate and abundance. We calculated the mean spatial population synchrony between log-transformed population growth rates or log-transformed abundances for each species and country separately. We investigated differences in synchrony across generation times in resident (n = 67), short-distance migrant (n = 86) and long-distance migrant (n = 39) bird species. Species with shorter generation times were more synchronized than species with longer generation times. Short-distance migrants were more synchronized than long-distance migrants and resident birds. Our results provide novel empirical links between spatial population synchrony and species traits known to be of key importance for population dynamics, generation time and migration tactics. We show how these different mechanisms can be combined to understand species-specific causes of spatial population synchrony. Understanding these specific drivers of spatial population synchrony is important in the face of increasingly severe threats to biodiversity and could be key for successful future conservation outcomes.

Interannual temperature variability is a principal driver of low-frequency fluctuations in marine fish populations

Marine fish populations commonly exhibit low-frequency fluctuations in biomass that can cause catch volatility and thus endanger the food and economic security of dependent coastal societies. Such variability has been linked to fishing intensity, demographic processes and environmental variability, but our understanding of the underlying drivers remains poor for most fish stocks. Our study departs from previous findings showing that sea surface temperature (SST) is a significant driver of fish somatic growth variability and that life-history characteristics mediate population-level responses to environmental variability. We use autoregressive models to simulate how fish populations integrate SST variability over multiple years depending on fish life span and trophic position. We find that simulated SST-driven population dynamics can explain a significant portion of observed low-frequency variability in independent observations of fisheries landings around the globe. Predictive skill, however, decreases with increasing fishing pressure, likely due to demographic truncation. Using our modelling approach, we also show that increases in the mean and variance of SST could amplify biomass volatility and lessen its predictability in the future. Overall, biological integration of high-frequency SST variability represents a null hypothesis with which to explore the drivers of low-frequency population change across upper-trophic marine species.

van der Sleen et al. introduce the use of an autoregressive null model to explain low-frequency variability in populations of marine fishes. Using time series of fisheries landings from a global database, their model shows that interannual sea surface temperature variation is integrated through each trophic level of the food web and can underlie observed low-frequency population dynamics.

Introgression from farmed escapees affects the full life cycle of wild Atlantic salmon

After a half a century of salmon farming, we have yet to understand how the influx of genes from farmed escapees affects the full life history of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) in the wild. Using scale samples of over 6900 wild adult salmon from 105 rivers, we document that increased farmed genetic ancestry is associated with increased growth throughout life and a younger age at both seaward migration and sexual maturity. There was large among-population variation in the effects of introgression. Most saliently, the increased growth at sea following introgression declined with the population’s average growth potential. Variation at two major-effect loci associated with age at maturity was little affected by farmed genetic ancestry and could not explain the observed phenotypic effects of introgression. Our study provides knowledge crucial for predicting the ecological and evolutionary consequences of increased aquaculture production worldwide.

Age-dependent patterns of spatial autocorrelation in fish populations

The degree of spatial autocorrelation in population fluctuations increases with dispersal and geographical covariation in the environment, and decreases with strength of density dependence. Because the effects of these processes can vary throughout an individual's lifespan, we studied how spatial autocorrelation in abundance changed with age in three marine fish species in the Barents Sea. We found large interspecific differences in age-dependent patterns of spatial autocorrelation in density. Spatial autocorrelation increased with age in cod, the reverse trend was found in beaked redfish, while it remained constant among age classes in haddock. We also accounted for the average effect of local cohort dynamics, i.e. the expected local density of an age class given last year's local density of the cohort, with the goal of disentangling spatial autocorrelation patterns acting on an age class from those formed during younger age classes and being carried over. We found that the spatial autocorrelation pattern of older age classes became increasingly determined by the distribution of the cohort during the previous year. Lastly, we found high degrees of autocorrelation over long distances for the three species, suggesting the presence of far-reaching autocorrelating processes on these populations. We discuss how differences in the species' life history strategies could cause the observed differences in age-specific variation in spatial autocorrelation. As spatial autocorrelation can differ among age classes, our study indicates that fluctuations in age structure can influence the spatio-temporal variation in abundance of marine fish populations.

The effects of population synchrony, life history, and access constraints on benefits from fishing portfolios

Natural resources often exhibit large interannual fluctuations in productivity driven by shifting environmental conditions, and this translates to high variability in the revenue resource users earn. However, users can dampen this variability by harvesting a portfolio of resources. In the context of fisheries, this means targeting multiple populations, though the ability to actually build diverse fishing portfolios is often constrained by the costs and availability of fishing permits. These constraints are generally intended to prevent overcapitalization of the fleet and ensure populations are fished sustainably. As linked human-natural systems, both ecological and fishing dynamics influence the specific advantages and disadvantages of increasing the diversity of fishing portfolios. Specifically, a portfolio of synchronous populations with similar responses to environmental drivers should reduce revenue variability less than a portfolio of asynchronous populations with opposite responses. We built a bioeconomic model based on the Dungeness crab (Metacarcinus magister), Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), and groundfish fisheries in the California Current, and used it to explore the influence of population synchrony and permit access on income patterns. As expected, synchronous populations reduced revenue variability less than asynchronous populations, but only for portfolios including crab and salmon. Synchrony with the longer-lived groundfish population was not important because environmentally driven changes in groundfish recruitment were mediated by growth and natural mortality over the full population age structure, and overall biomass was relatively stable across years. Thus, building a portfolio of diverse life histories can buffer against the impacts of poor environmental conditions over short time scales. Increasing access to all permits generally led to increased revenue stability and decreased inequality of the fleet, but also resulted in less revenue earned by an individual from a given portfolio because more vessels shared the available biomass. This means managers are faced with a trade-off between the average revenue individuals earn and the risk those individuals accept. These results illustrate the importance of considering connections between social and ecological dynamics when evaluating management options that constrain or facilitate fishers' ability to diversify their fishing.

Contrasting patterns of density-dependent selection at different life stages can create more than one fast-slow axis of life-history variation

There has been much recent research interest in the existence of a major axis of life-history variation along a fast-slow continuum within almost all major taxonomic groups. Eco-evolutionary models of density-dependent selection provide a general explanation for such observations of interspecific variation in the "pace of life." One issue, however, is that some large-bodied long-lived "slow" species (e.g., trees and large fish) often show an explosive "fast" type of reproduction with many small offspring, and species with "fast" adult life stages can have comparatively "slow" offspring life stages (e.g., mayflies). We attempt to explain such life-history evolution using the same eco-evolutionary modeling approach but with two life stages, separating adult reproductive strategies from offspring survival strategies. When the population dynamics in the two life stages are closely linked and affect each other, density-dependent selection occurs in parallel on both reproduction and survival, producing the usual one-dimensional fast-slow continuum (e.g., houseflies to blue whales). However, strong density dependence at either the adult reproduction or offspring survival life stage creates quasi-independent population dynamics, allowing fast-type reproduction alongside slow-type survival (e.g., trees and large fish), or the perhaps rarer slow-type reproduction alongside fast-type survival (e.g., mayflies-short-lived adults producing few long-lived offspring). Therefore, most types of species life histories in nature can potentially be explained via the eco-evolutionary consequences of density-dependent selection given the possible separation of demographic effects at different life stages.

Phenotypic memory drives population growth and extinction risk in a noisy environment

Random environmental fluctuations pose major threats to wild populations. As patterns of environmental noise are themselves altered by global change, there is growing need to identify general mechanisms underlying their effects on population dynamics. This notably requires understanding and predicting population responses to the color of environmental noise, i.e. its temporal autocorrelation pattern. Here, we show experimentally that environmental autocorrelation has a large influence on population dynamics and extinction rates, which can be predicted accurately provided that a memory of past environment is accounted for. We exposed near to 1000 lines of the microalgae Dunaliella salina to randomly fluctuating salinity, with autocorrelation ranging from negative to highly positive. We found lower population growth, and twice as many extinctions, under lower autocorrelation. These responses closely matched predictions based on a tolerance curve with environmental memory, showing that non-genetic inheritance can be a major driver of population dynamics in randomly fluctuating environments.

Animal life history is shaped by the pace of life and the distribution of age-specific mortality and reproduction

Animals exhibit an extraordinary diversity of life history strategies. These realized combinations of survival, development and reproduction are predicted to be constrained by physiological limitations and by trade-offs in resource allocation. However, our understanding of these patterns is restricted to a few taxonomic groups. Using demographic data from 121 species, ranging from humans to sponges, we test whether such trade-offs universally shape animal life history strategies. We show that, after accounting for body mass and phylogenetic relatedness, 71% of the variation in animal life history strategies can be explained by life history traits associated with the fast-slow continuum (pace of life) and with a second axis defined by the distribution of age-specific mortality hazards and the spread of reproduction. While we found that life history strategies are associated with metabolic rate and ecological modes of life, surprisingly similar life history strategies can be found across the phylogenetic and physiological diversity of animals.

Life-history evolution under fluctuating density-dependent selection and the adaptive alignment of pace-of-life syndromes

We present a novel perspective on life-history evolution that combines recent theoretical advances in fluctuating density-dependent selection with the notion of pace-of-life syndromes (POLSs) in behavioural ecology. These ideas posit phenotypic co-variation in life-history, physiological, morphological and behavioural traits as a continuum from the highly fecund, short-lived, bold, aggressive and highly dispersive 'fast' types at one end of the POLS to the less fecund, long-lived, cautious, shy, plastic and socially responsive 'slow' types at the other. We propose that such variation in life histories and the associated individual differences in behaviour can be explained through their eco-evolutionary dynamics with population density - a single and ubiquitous selective factor that is present in all biological systems. Contrasting regimes of environmental stochasticity are expected to affect population density in time and space and create differing patterns of fluctuating density-dependent selection, which generates variation in fast versus slow life histories within and among populations. We therefore predict that a major axis of phenotypic co-variation in life-history, physiological, morphological and behavioural traits (i.e. the POLS) should align with these stochastic fluctuations in the multivariate fitness landscape created by variation in density-dependent selection. Phenotypic plasticity and/or genetic (co-)variation oriented along this major POLS axis are thus expected to facilitate rapid and adaptively integrated changes in various aspects of life histories within and among populations and/or species. The fluctuating density-dependent selection POLS framework presented here therefore provides a series of clear testable predictions, the investigation of which should further our fundamental understanding of life-history evolution and thus our ability to predict natural population dynamics.

Food availability as a major driver in the evolution of life-history strategies of sibling species

Life‐history theory predicts trade‐offs between reproductive and survival traits such that different strategies or environmental constraints may yield comparable lifetime reproductive success among conspecifics. Food availability is one of the most important environmental factors shaping developmental processes. It notably affects key life‐history components such as reproduction and survival prospect. We investigated whether food resource availability could also operate as an ultimate driver of life‐history strategy variation between species. During 13 years, we marked and recaptured young and adult sibling mouse‐eared bats (Myotis myotis and Myotis blythii) at sympatric colonial sites. We tested whether distinct, species‐specific trophic niches and food availability patterns may drive interspecific differences in key life‐history components such as age at first reproduction and survival. We took advantage of a quasi‐experimental setting in which prey availability for the two species varies between years (pulse vs. nonpulse resource years), modeling mark‐recapture data for demographic comparisons. Prey availability dictated both adult survival and age at first reproduction. The bat species facing a more abundant and predictable food supply early in the season started its reproductive life earlier and showed a lower adult survival probability than the species subjected to more limited and less predictable food supply, while lifetime reproductive success was comparable in both species. The observed life‐history trade‐off indicates that temporal patterns in food availability can drive evolutionary divergence in life‐history strategies among sympatric sibling species.

Colonial, more widely distributed and less abundant bird species undergo wider population fluctuations independent of their population trend

Understanding temporal variability in population size is important for conservation biology because wide population fluctuations increase the risk of extinction. Previous studies suggested that certain ecological, demographic, life-history and genetic characteristics of species might be related to the degree of their population fluctuations. We checked whether that was the case in a large sample of 231 European breeding bird species while taking a number of potentially confounding factors such as population trends or similarities among species due to common descent into account. When species-specific characteristics were analysed one by one, the magnitude of population fluctuations was positively related to coloniality, habitat, total breeding range, heterogeneity of breeding distribution and natal dispersal, and negatively related to urbanisation, abundance, relative number of subspecies, parasitism and proportion of polymorphic loci. However, when abundance (population size) was included in the analyses of the other parameters, only coloniality, habitat, total breeding range and abundance remained significantly related to population fluctuations. The analysis including all these predictors simultaneously showed that population size fluctuated more in colonial, less abundant species with larger breeding ranges. Other parameters seemed to be related to population fluctuations only because of their association with abundance or coloniality. The unexpected positive relationship between population fluctuations and total breeding range did not seem to be mediated by abundance. The link between population fluctuations and coloniality suggests a previously unrecognized cost of coloniality. The negative relationship between population size and population fluctuations might be explained by at least three types of non-mutually exclusive stochastic processes: demographic, environmental and genetic stochasticity. Measurement error in population indices, which was unknown, may have contributed to the negative relationship between population size and fluctuations, but apparently only to a minor extent. The association between population size and fluctuations suggests that populations might be stabilized by increasing population size.

Within- and among-population variation in vital rates and population dynamics in a variable environment

Understanding the causes of within- and among-population differences in vital rates, life histories, and population dynamics is a central topic in ecology. To understand how within- and among-population variation emerges, we need long-term studies that include episodic events and contrasting environmental conditions, data to characterize individual and shared variation, and statistical models that can tease apart shared and individual contribution to the observed variation. We used long-term tag-recapture data to investigate and estimate within- and among-population differences in vital rates, life histories, and population dynamics of marble trout Salmo marmoratus, an endemic freshwater salmonid with a narrow range. Only ten populations of pure marble trout persist in headwaters of Alpine rivers in western Slovenia. Marble trout populations are also threatened by floods and landslides, which have already caused the extinction of two populations in recent years. We estimated and determined causes of variation in growth, survival, and recruitment both within and among populations, and evaluated trade-offs between them. Specifically, we estimated the responses of these traits to variation in water temperature, density, sex, early life conditions, and extreme events. We found that the effects of population density on traits were mostly limited to the early stages of life and that growth trajectories were established early in life. We found no clear effects of water temperature on vital rates. Population density varied over time, with flash floods and debris flows causing massive mortalities (>55% decrease in survival with respect to years with no floods) and threatening population persistence. Apart from flood events, variation in population density within streams was largely determined by variation in recruitment, with survival of older fish being relatively constant over time within populations, but substantially different among populations. Marble trout show a fast to slow continuum of life histories, with slow growth associated with higher survival at the population level, possibly determined by food conditions and age at maturity. Our work provides unprecedented insight into the causes of variation in vital rates, life histories, and population dynamics in an endemic species that is teetering on the edge of extinction.

Ten principles from evolutionary ecology essential for effective marine conservation

Sustainably managing marine species is crucial for the future health of the human population. Yet there are diverse perspectives concerning which species can be exploited sustainably, and how best to do so. Motivated by recent debates in the published literature over marine conservation challenges, we review ten principles connecting life‐history traits, population growth rate, and density‐dependent population regulation. We introduce a framework for categorizing life histories, POSE (Precocial–Opportunistic–Survivor–Episodic), which illustrates how a species’ life‐history traits determine a population's compensatory capacity. We show why considering the evolutionary context that has shaped life histories is crucial to sustainable management. We then review recent work that connects our framework to specific opportunities where the life‐history traits of marine species can be used to improve current conservation practices.

The intensity of horizontal and vertical search in a diving forager: the harbour seal

BACKGROUND

Free ranging foraging animals can vary their searching intensity in response to the profitability of the environment by modifying their movements. Marine diving animals forage in a three dimensional space and searching intensity can be varied in both the horizontal and vertical planes. Therefore understanding the relationship between the allocation of searching effort in these two spaces can provide a better understanding of searching strategies and a more robust identification of foraging behaviour from the multitude of foraging indices (FIs) available. We investigated the movement of a widespread marine coastal predator, the harbour seal (Phoca vitulina), and compared two sets of foraging indices reflecting searching intensity respectively in the horizontal plane (displacement speed, extensive vs. intensive movement types, residence time) and in the vertical dimension (time at the bottom of a dive). We then tested how several factors (dive depth, direction of the trip with respect to haul-out site, different predatory tactics, the presence of factors confounding the detection of foraging, and temporal resolution of the data) affected their relationships.

RESULTS

Overall the indices only showed a very weak positive correlation across the two spaces. However controlling for various factors strengthened the relationships. Resting at sea, a behaviour intrinsically static in the horizontal plane, was found to be strongly negatively related to the time spent at the bottom of the dives, indirectly weakening the relationship between horizontal and vertical foraging indices. Predatory tactic (benthic vs. pelagic) was found to directly affect the relationship. In benthic (as opposed to pelagic) foraging a stronger positive relationship was found between vertical and horizontal indices.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results indicated that movement responses, leading to an intensification of search, are similar in the two spaces (positive relationship), but additional factors need to be taken into account for this relationship to emerge. Foraging indices measuring residence in the horizontal plane tend to be inflated by resting events at sea, while vertical indices tend to distinguish mainly between periods of activity and inactivity, or of benthic and pelagic foraging. The simultaneous consideration of horizontal and vertical movements, as well as topographic information, allows additional behavioural states to be inferred, providing greater insight into the interpretation of foraging activity.