Repeated hospitalizations and self-rated health among the elderly: a multivariate failure time analysis

Syphilis Exposure During Pregnancy and Childhood Hospital Admissions in Brazil

Importance

While the short-term impacts of congenital syphilis are well documented, the long-term outcomes and effects on children exposed to syphilis during pregnancy but without congenital infection detected at birth remain unclear.

Objective

To compare the rates of all-cause hospitalization in children younger than 5 years between those exposed to syphilis during pregnancy (with and without congenital syphilis) and those unexposed to syphilis during pregnancy.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Population-based study using linked data from the Center of Data and Knowledge Integration for Health Birth Cohort, including singleton live births between January 1, 2011, and December 31, 2015. Children were followed up until age 5 years, death, or December 31, 2018, whichever occurred first. Data were made available in 2020 and analyzed between March and September 2024.

Exposures

In this study, syphilis during pregnancy was categorized into 3 groups: (1) maternal syphilis, (2) congenital syphilis, and (3) no exposure, for those without syphilis records.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Primary outcomes were: (1) general and age-stratified first hospital admission rates, (2) length of stay for the first hospital admission, and (3) International Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision diagnoses of the first hospitalization. Secondary outcomes included: (1) recurrent hospital admissions and (2) mortality.

Results

The study included 8 286 867 singleton births, with 30 039 exposed to maternal syphilis (15 482 [51.5%] male, 7642 [25.4%] Asian, 2442 [8.1%] Black, and 16 930 [56.4%] Pardo [denotes individuals who are White and Indigenous, White and Black, Black and Indigenous, or Black and another race]) and 36 443 with congenital syphilis (18 286 [50.2%] male, 6977 [19.1%] Asian, 3769 [10.3%] Black, 16 930 [56.4%] Pardo). Exposed births were more prevalent in Black, single, and less educated women. Compared with children with no exposure, those with congenital syphilis had an increased risk of first hospitalization (hazard ratio [HR], 6.19; 95% CI, 6.11-6.28), as did those exposed to maternal syphilis (HR, 1.90; 95% CI, 1.86-1.94). The highest risk of first hospitalization was observed in the first month of life, among those with congenital syphilis (HR, 11.53; 95% CI, 11.36-11.70). Although the risk decreased with age, children exposed to syphilis continued to have higher hospitalization rates than the nonexposed group until the age of 36 months. Live-born children exposed to syphilis during pregnancy also had more and longer hospital admissions. Those with congenital syphilis had a lower prevalence of respiratory and digestive diagnoses than those with maternal syphilis and the nonexposed group.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cohort study, we observed that those children exposed to syphilis during pregnancy, even without congenital syphilis detected at birth, had a higher risk of hospital admission and were hospitalized for longer periods. These findings underscore the need for close monitoring of exposed children and emphasize the importance of preventing syphilis in women of childbearing age.

Screening for frequent hospitalization risk among community-dwelling older adult between 2016 and 2023: machine learning-driven item selection, scoring system development, and prospective validation

BACKGROUND

Screening for frequent hospitalizations in the community can help prevent super-utilizers from growing in the inpatient population. However, the determinants of frequent hospitalizations have not been systematically examined, their operational definitions have been inconsistent, and screening among community members lacks tools. Nor do we know if what determined frequent hospitalizations before COVID-19 continued to be the determinant of frequent hospitalizations at the height of the pandemic. Hence, the current study aims to identify determinants of frequent hospitalization and their screening items developed from the Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment (CGA), as our 273-item CGA is too lengthy to administer in full in community or primary care settings. The stability of the identified determinants will be examined in terms of the prospective validity of pre-COVID-selected items administered at the height of the pandemic.

METHODS

Comprehensive Geriatric Assessments (CGAs) were administered between 2016 and 2018 in the homes of 1,611 older adults aged 65+ years. Learning models were deployed to select CGA items to maximize the classification of different operational definitions of frequent hospitalizations, ranging from the most inclusive definition, wherein two or more hospitalizations over 2 years, to the most exclusive, wherein two or more hospitalizations must appear during year two, reflecting different care needs. In addition, the CGA items selected by the best-performing learning model were then developed into a random-forest-based scoring system for assessing frequent hospitalization risk, the validity of which was tested during 2018 and again prospectively between 2022 and 2023 in a sample of 329 older adults recruited from a district adjacent to where the CGAs were initially performed.

RESULTS

Seventeen items were selected from the CGA by our best-performing algorithm (DeepBoost), achieving 0.90 AUC in classifying operational definitions of frequent hospitalizations differing in temporal distributions and care needs. The number of medications prescribed and the need for assistance with emptying the bowel, housekeeping, transportation, and laundry were selected using the DeepBoost algorithm under the supervision of all operational definitions of frequent hospitalizations. On the other hand, reliance on walking aids, ability to balance on one's own, history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and usage of social services were selected in the top 10 by all but the operational definitions that reflect the greatest care needs. The prospective validation of the original risk-scoring system using a sample recruited from a different district during the COVID-19 pandemic achieved an AUC of 0.82 in differentiating those rehospitalized twice or more over 2 years from those who were not.

CONCLUSION

A small subset of CGA items representing one's independence in aspects of (instrumental) activities of daily living, mobility, history of COPD, and social service utilization are sufficient for community members at risk of frequent hospitalization. The determinants of frequent hospitalization represented by the subset of CGA items remain relevant over the course of COVID-19 pandemic and across sociogeography.

Self-Rated Health and Mortality Among Older Adults in Israel: A Comparison Between Jewish and Arab Populations

Background: Self-rated health (SRH) has been shown to predict mortality across a lifespan. However, its predictive value might differ between populations. We compared the association between SRH and mortality in Israeli Jewish and Arab older adults (65+). Methods: A prospective cohort study was conducted among Jewish (n = 1463) and Arab (n = 298) participants in the first National Health and Nutrition Survey of Older Adults (2005-2006). SRH was measured on a four-point scale. Mortality data were available from baseline (2005-2006) through 2019. A survival analysis was performed using Cox models. Results: Mean baseline age (SD) was 75 (6) years among Jewish participants (54% women) and 72 (5) years among Arab participants (50% women). Jewish participants were more likely to rate their health as not good (35% vs. 29%) or poor (11% vs. 8%) than Arab participants (p = 0.01). During a median follow-up of 13.3 years, 896 deaths occurred; 744 in the Jewish group (mean age [SD] 77.8 [6.6] years) and 152 in the Arab group (mean age [SD] 74.0 [5.2] years). The age- and sex-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for mortality in the Arab vs. Jewish participants was 1.33 (95% CI: 1.12-1.60). Mortality risk increased with declining SRH, with multivariable-adjusted HRs in the lowest vs. most-favorable SRH categories of 2.46 (95% CI: 1.66-3.63) in the Jewish sample and 2.60 (95% CI: 0.98-6.93) in the Arab sample. Conclusions: Although Jewish participants reported poorer SRH, their survival rate was better than Arab participants. Lower SRH was consistently and strongly associated with higher mortality in both groups in a dose-response manner.

Risk factors for hospitalisation in community-dwelling pre-frail and frail older people: results of a longitudinal study

BACKGROUND

Older adults account for a large proportion of hospital admissions. In this study we aim to bridge a gap between medical and psychosocial factors in predicting hospitalisation.

METHODS

Demographic and social characteristics of community-dwelling pre-frail and frail older people were collected by questionnaires every six months during a two year follow-up. Hospital admission within this period was dichotomised as yes/no. To define pre-frailty and frailty the Fried frailty criteria were used. Analysis of risk factors for hospitalisation was performed using multivariable logistic regression.

RESULTS

Hospitalised participants (n = 1803) were more often male and frail in comparison to not-hospitalised participants. They also experienced more chronic diseases (54.5% ≥ 4 chronic diseases), poorer self-perceived health (SPH) (76.4% fair to very poor) and lack of informal care (20.1%). In multivariable logistic regression male gender (Odds ratio (OR) 1.65, p < 0.001), frailty (vs. pre-frailty) (OR 1.66, p = 0.002), reporting lower SPH (OR 3.12, p < 0.001) and lacking informal care (OR 1.69, p < 0.001) showed significant associations with hospital admission. Subgroup analysis of pre-frail and frail participants, showed consistent associations between male gender (respectively OR 1.61, p < 0.001 ; OR 1.72, p = 0.085), lower SPH (OR 2.23, p = 0.001; OR 31.16, p < 0.001), lack of informal care (OR 1.64, p = 0.005; OR 2.63, p = 0.012) and hospitalisation.

CONCLUSION

Frailty, male gender, lower SPH and lack of informal care are risk factors for hospitalisation within community-dwelling older people, showing the need of a holistic approach to possibly prevent hospitalisation. Further research should focus on evaluating individual factors for hospitalisation, particularly targeting pre-frail individuals.

Self-Rated Health in Middle Age and Risk of Hospitalizations and Death: Recurrent Event Analysis of the ARIC Study

BACKGROUND

Self-rated health is a simple measure that may identify individuals who are at a higher risk for hospitalization or death.

OBJECTIVE

To quantify the association between a single measure of self-rated health and future risk of recurrent hospitalizations or death.

PARTICIPANTS

Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study, a community-based prospective cohort study of middle-aged men and women with follow-up beginning from 1987 to 1989.

MAIN MEASURES

We quantified the associations between initial self-rated health with risk of recurrent hospitalizations and of death using a recurrent events survival model that allowed for dependency between the rates of hospitalization and hazards of death, adjusted for demographic and clinical factors.

KEY RESULTS

Of the 14,937 ARIC cohort individuals with available self-rated health and covariate information, 34% of individuals reported "excellent" health, 47% "good," 16% "fair," and 3% "poor" at study baseline. After a median follow-up of 27.7 years, 1955 (39%), 3569 (51%), 1626 (67%), and 402 (83%) individuals with "excellent," "good," "fair," and "poor" health, respectively, had died. After adjusting for demographic factors and medical history, a less favorable self-rated health status was associated with increased rates of hospitalization and death. As compared to those reporting "excellent" health, adults with "good," "fair," and "poor" health had 1.22 (1.07 to 1.40), 2.01 (1.63 to 2.47), and 3.13 (2.39 to 4.09) times the rate of hospitalizations, respectively. The hazards of death also increased with worsening categories of self-rated health, with "good," "fair," and "poor" health individuals experiencing 1.30 (1.12 to 1.51), 2.15 (1.71 to 2.69), and 3.40 (2.54 to 4.56) times the hazard of death compared to "excellent," respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Even after adjusting for demographic and clinical factors, having a less favorable response on a single measure of self-rated health taken in middle age is a potent marker of future hospitalizations and death.

Emerging health disparities among college graduates: Understanding the health consequences of education-occupation mismatch

This study examines the health consequences and underlying pathways of education-occupation mismatch. Using a longitudinal sample of college graduates from the Panel Studies of Income Dynamics (1984-2019) and employing longitudinal hybrid models, we found that contemporary vertical mismatch (between education level and educational requirements of occupation) was associated with poorer psychological well-being and bio-behaviors (obesity and smoking), but not physical health. In contrast, horizontal mismatch (between field of study and field required for occupation) did not show clear health consequences. Sequence analysis was employed to uncover the mismatch trajectories and revealed that persistent vertical mismatch over one's career had a greater impact on psychological distress and smoking than episodic mismatch experiences. Furthermore, the linkage between vertical mismatch and health outcomes was likely shaped by psychosocial processes rather than reduced material well-being. These findings imply that education-occupation vertical (mis)match produces health disparities between occupationally matched and mismatched college graduates.

Self-rated health and chronic inflammation are related and independently associated with hospitalization and long-term mortality in the general population

The subjective indicator of health self-rated health (SRH) and the chronic inflammation biomarker soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) are both robust predictors of healthcare use and mortality. However, the possible relationship between SRH and suPAR in the assessment of hospitalization and mortality risk is unknown. We used data from the Danish population-based Inter99 cohort to examine the association between SRH and suPAR and test their individual and combined associations with 2-year risk of acute hospitalization and 5- and 15-year mortality. SRH and serum suPAR levels were measured in 5490 participants (median age 45.1 years, 48.7% men). Poorer SRH was associated with elevated suPAR. In unadjusted analyses, SRH and suPAR were individually associated with higher risks of acute hospitalization and mortality, and both measures remained independently associated with higher risks of hospitalization and 15-year mortality after mutual adjustments. The association of suPAR with mortality was stronger in poorer SRH categories, and when combined, SRH and suPAR could identify different groups of individuals with increased risk of acute hospitalization and mortality. Both SRH and suPAR were independently associated with risk of acute hospitalization and mortality, and different combinations of the two measures could identify different groups of individuals at increased risk.

M, Srivastava S. Cross-sectional associations of physical frailty with fall, multiple falls and fall-injury among older Indian adults: Findings from LASI, 2018

BACKGROUND

Although there has been a range of studies that focused on physical frailty and associated fall outcomes within developed countries, similar studies from developing countries have been limited. This study aimed to examine the relationship between physical frailty and the prevalence of falls, multiple falls and fall-related injuries among the ageing population within the Indian context.

METHODS

Individual-level data from the first wave of the Longitudinal Aging Study in India (LASI) with 28,285 older adults aged 60 years and above (male 48.9%) was used for this study. Physical frailty was assessed through the physical frailty phenotype adapted from Fried's criteria. Multivariable logistic regression was employed to examine the association of frailty status with falls, multiple falls, and fall-related injuries among Indian older adults.

RESULTS

The prevalence of frailty was found to be 29.94% within the sample and frail older adults had a higher prevalence of falls (15.43% vs 11.85%), multiple falls (7.73% vs 5.25%), and fall related injuries (6.68% vs 5.29%). The odds of falling among frail older adults were significantly higher in reference to the odds of falling among non-frail older adults [aOR: 1.24; CI: 1.09-1.41]. Similarly, the odds of multiple falls among frail older adults were significantly higher in reference to the odds of multiple falls among non-frail older adults [aOR: 1.24; CI: 1.05-1.48]. Moreover, the odds of fall-related injury among frail older adults were significantly higher in reference to the odds of fall-related injury among non-frail older adults [aOR: 1.21; CI: 1.01-1.45]. Falls, multiple falls and fall-related injuries were found to be significantly associated with employment and poor self-rated health, whereas, females and lone living older adults had a significantly higher likelihood of suffering from falls and multiple falls.

CONCLUSION

Older individuals with physical frailty were found to be at increased risk of falls, multiple falls and fall-related injuries in India. The findings of our study also have important clinical implications in the measures undertaken to reduce falls and enable future healthcare practitioners and policymakers to factor in the key determinant of physical frailty.

Relationship of Cognitive and Social Engagement to Health and Psychological Outcomes in Community-Dwelling Older Adults

BACKGROUND

Cognitive and social engagement is an important yet underdocumented aspect of older adult engagement and function.

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study was to examine relationships between cognitive and social engagement and health and psychological outcomes in a cohort of community-dwelling older adults aged approximately 55-70 years.

METHODS

Analysis of data from the Wisconsin Registry for Alzheimer's Prevention, a multiwave cohort study with 1,582 participants, using a 1:1 prospective case-control design to examine whether lower cognitive and social engagement at Visit 4 (baseline) is associated with worse health and psychological outcomes at Visit 5 (2 years after Visit 4). Wisconsin Registry for Alzheimer's Prevention participants were included in this study if they had complete data on cognitive and social engagement and self-rated health at both visits.

RESULTS

After matching potential covariates using propensity scores, participants with low cognitive and social engagement (cases) at baseline continued to have significantly lower cognitive and social engagement than the controls (participants with high cognitive and social engagement at baseline) at Visit 5, and they had lower self-rated health and higher surgery rate. Depressive symptoms, cognitive status, and hospitalization at Visit 5 did not significantly differ between cases and controls.

DISCUSSION

This study provides evidence supporting cognitive and social engagement as an important marker of early decline in activity engagement that may indicate a potential later decline in functional, psychological, and health outcomes.

Functional modeling of recurrent events on time-to-event processes

In clinical practice, it is often the case where the association between the occurrence of events and time-to-event outcomes is of interest; thus, it can be modeled within the framework of recurrent events. The purpose of our study is to enrich the information available for modeling survival with relevant dynamic features, properly taking into account their possibly time-varying nature, as well as to provide a new setting for quantifying the association between time-varying processes and time-to-event outcomes. We propose an innovative methodology to model information carried out by time-varying processes by means of functional data, modeling each time-varying variable as the compensator of marked point process the recurrent events are supposed to derive from. By means of Functional Principal Component Analysis, a suitable dimensional reduction of these objects is carried out in order to plug them into a Cox-type functional regression model for overall survival. We applied our methodology to data retrieved from the administrative databases of Lombardy Region (Italy), related to patients hospitalized for Heart Failure (HF) between 2000 and 2012. We focused on time-varying processes of HF hospitalizations and multiple drugs consumption and we studied how they influence patients' overall survival. This novel way to account for time-varying variables allowed to model self-exciting behaviors, for which the occurrence of events in the past increases the probability of a new event, and to quantify the effect of personal behaviors and therapeutic patterns on survival, giving new insights into the direction of personalized treatment.

Cautionary tails of grip strength in health inequality studies: An analysis from the Canadian longitudinal study on aging

Self-rated health is widely used in studies of the socioeconomic gradient of health in community-based populations. Its subjectivity may lead to under- or over-estimation of a true underlying socioeconomic gradient and has increased interest in searching for alternative, objective measures of health. Grip strength has emerged as one such alternative for community-based older populations, yet no study has directly assessed the relationship between these two measures and compared their associations with socioeconomic status and health behaviours. Using 26,754 participants aged 45-85 years in the baseline data of the Canadian Longitudinal Study on Aging Comprehensive Cohort, we estimated adjusted-grip strength through indirect standardization using age, sex, height, weight, and their square terms and used ANOVA to assess the variance of adjusted-grip strength within and between each self-rated health category. We ran four separate logistic regression models, examining unhealthy tails (those reporting poor health vs. not and those at the bottom 8th percentile of adjusted-grip strength vs. above) and healthy tails (those reporting excellent health vs. not and those at the top 20th percentile of adjusted-grip strength vs. below). Stronger adjusted-grip strength correlated with better self-rated health, but only 2% of the total variance of adjusted-grip strength was explained by variance between the self-rated health categories. While self-rated health largely showed the expected socioeconomic gradients and positive relationships with health enhancing behaviours, adjusted-grip strength showed no clear, consistent associations with either socioeconomic or health behaviour variables. The results give caution about using grip strength as an objective alternative to self-rated health in studies of social inequalities in health. Empirical approaches demand careful considerations as to which dimensions of health and corresponding measures of health are most relevant to the context being studied.

Obesity and risk of infections: results from men and women in the Swedish National March Cohort

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have shown an association between body mass index (BMI) and infections, but the literature on type-specific community acquired infections is still limited.

METHODS

We included 39 163 Swedish adults who completed a questionnaire in September 1997 and were followed through record-linkages until December 2016. Information on BMI was self-reported and infections were identified from the Swedish National Patient Register using International Classification of Diseases (ICD), Tenth Revision (ICD-10) codes. We fitted multivariable Cox proportional hazards models for time-to-first-event analysis, and we used extensions of the standard Cox model when repeated events were included.

RESULTS

During a 19-year follow-up 32% of the subjects had at least one infection requiring health care contact, leading to a total of 27 675 events. We found an increased incidence of any infection in obese women [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.22; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.12; 1.33] and obese men (HR = 1.25; 95% CI = 1.09; 1.43) compared with normal weight subjects. For specific infections, higher incidences were observed for skin infections in both genders (HR = 1.76; 95% CI = 1.47; 2.12 for obese females and HR = 1.74; 95% CI = 1.33; 2.28 for obese males) and gastrointestinal tract infections (HR = 1.44; 95% CI = 1.19; 1.75), urinary tract infections (HR = 1.30; 95% CI = 1.08; 1.55) and sepsis (HR = 2.09; 95% CI = 1.46; 2.99) in obese females. When accounting for repeated events, estimates similar to the aforementioned ones were found.

CONCLUSIONS

Obesity was associated with an increased risk of infections in both genders. Results from multiple-failure survival analysis were consistent with those from classic Cox models.

The Association Between Patient-reported Clinical Factors and 30-day Acute Care Utilization in Chronic Heart Failure

BACKGROUND

Heart failure patients have high rates of repeat acute care use. Current efforts for risk prediction often ignore postdischarge data.

OBJECTIVE

To identify postdischarge patient-reported clinical factors associated with repeat acute care use.

RESEARCH DESIGN

In a prospective cohort study that followed patients with chronic heart failure for 30 days postdischarge, for 7 days after discharge (or fewer days if patients used acute care within 7 days postdischarge), patients reported health status, heart failure symptoms, medication management, knowledge of follow-up plans, and other issues using a daily interactive automatic phone call.

SUBJECTS

A total of 156 patients who had responded to phone surveys.

MEASURES

The outcome variable was dichotomous 30-day acute care use (rehospitalization or emergency department visit). We examined the association between each patient-reported issue and the outcome, using multivariable logistic regression to adjust for confounders.

RESULTS

Patients were 63 years old (SD=12.4), with 51% African-American and 53% women. Within 30 days postdischarge, 30 (19%) patients used acute care. After adjustment, poor health status [odds ratio (OR)=3.53; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.06-11.76], pain (OR=2.44; 95% CI, 1.02-5.84), and poor appetite (OR=3.05; 95% CI, 1.13-8.23) were positively associated with 30-day acute care utilization. Among 58 reports of pain in follow-up nursing notes, 39 (67%) were noncardiac, 2 (3%) were cardiac, and 17 (29%) were indeterminate.

CONCLUSIONS

Patient-reported poor health status, pain, and poor appetite were positively associated with 30-day acute care utilization. These novel postdischarge markers require further study before incorporation into risk prediction to drive quality improvement efforts.

Factors Related to Self-rated Health in Older Adults: A Clinical Approach Using the International Classification of Functioning, Disability, and Health (ICF) Model

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

A growing population of older adults will require health care professionals to become increasingly knowledgeable in geriatric care. Patient ratings, functional measures, and emphasis on health and wellness should be part of geriatric physical therapy practice. The purpose of the current study was to examine relationships between self-rated health (SRH) and movement-related variables in older adults using the International Classification of Functioning, Disability, and Health (ICF) as a research framework. Associations between body mass index (BMI), gait, and balance confidence were also explored.

METHODS

Thirty older adults (mean age = 74.1 years; 18 women and 12 men) participated in the study and completed the following questionnaires: SRH, Short Activities-specific Balance Confidence scale, Keele Assessment of Participation, and the Neighborhood Environment Walkability Scale-Abbreviated. Spatiotemporal gait parameters, BMI, and isokinetic knee extensor strength were also assessed.

RESULTS

Bivariate results indicated significant associations between SRH and double-support time during gait (rs = -0.6, P < .001), gait speed (rs = 0.4, P = .05), step length (rs = 0.4, P = .05), BMI (rs = -0.4, P = .015), and hilliness of neighborhood (rs = -0.4, P = .015). Individual regression models, controlling for education and age, demonstrated that double-support time was the strongest predictor of SRH (R = 0.50, P = .001). Comparisons of the low versus high BMI groups indicated more favorable balance confidence and gait characteristics for the low BMI group, particularly in double support (t = -3.8, P = .001).

CONCLUSIONS

SRH should be considered as a quick, patient-focused assessment of health in older adults. Measures of double-support time and BMI may provide clinicians with useful information about their geriatric patients' overall health and function.

Obesity moderates the benefit of retirement on health: A 21-year prospective study in the GAZEL cohort

OBJECTIVES

Self-rated health and depressive symptoms have been shown to improve upon retirement. Participants with obesity might benefit more of retirement because of the extra work-related burden they are carrying. The present study aimed to investigate whether the association between retirement and health changes may depend upon obesity in the large French GAZEL occupational cohort during 21 years of follow-up.

METHODS

17,655 men and women were included in the analyses. Self-rated health was measured on a scale from 1 to 8 with 8 being very bad. Depressive symptoms were measured at four time points by the CES-D score. Mixed models examined the association of self-rated health or depressive symptoms with time (i.e. from -10 years before to +10 years after retirement), retirement, body mass index (BMI), and their interactions.

RESULTS

Regardless of retirement, BMI was associated with poorer health. Positive BMI by time interactions showed a less favorable time course of both health indicators in the presence versus the absence of obesity (0.024 versus 0.014 and - 0.19 versus -0.07 points per year for self-rated health and depressive symptoms, respectively). However, negative BMI by retirement interactions showed that the improvement of health observed upon retirement was stronger in with the presence versus the absence of obesity (-0.4 versus -0.3 and - 2.42 versus -1.70 points for self-rated health and depressive symptoms, respectively).

CONCLUSION

Improvement upon retirement was observed in the presence of obesity and was even higher than in the presence of normal weight and overweight.

Trajectories of self-rated health before and after retirement: evidence from two cohort studies

Objectives

Previous studies have produced conflicting findings on the health consequences of retirement. We aimed at identifying trajectories of self-rated health over retirement transition using repeated measurements and examined which preretirement factors predicted membership to each trajectory.

Methods

The study population consisted of Finnish public sector employees from two independent cohorts (Finnish Public Sector Study (FPS), n=5776 with a 4-year follow-up interval; and Finnish Retirement and Aging Study (FIREA), n=2796 with a 1-year follow-up interval). Both cohorts included assessment of self-rated health one to three times before and one to three times after retirement (average number of measurement points: 3.7 in FPS and 3.5 in FIREA). We used latent trajectory analysis to identify trajectories of self-rated health.

Results

In both cohorts four similar trajectories were identified: ‘Sustained good health’ (47% in FPS and 74% in FIREA), ‘From good to suboptimal health’ (19% and 6%), ‘From suboptimal to good health’ (14% and 8%) and ‘Sustained suboptimal health’ (20% and 12%). There were more women and persons in high occupational status in the ‘From suboptimal to good health’ trajectory group when compared with ‘Sustained suboptimal health’ trajectory group in FPS. Those in the trajectory ‘From good to suboptimal health’ had lower occupational status and higher job strain in comparison with those in the ‘Sustained good health’ trajectory in both cohorts.

Conclusions

A large majority of public sector employees maintain their perceived health status during retirement transition. Adverse trajectory in self-rated health relate to low occupational status and work-related stressors.

Longitudinal adherence to maternal antiretroviral therapy and infant Nevirapine prophylaxis from 6 weeks to 18 months postpartum amongst a cohort of mothers and infants in South Africa

BACKGROUND

Despite improved policies to prevent mother-to-child HIV transmission (MTCT), adherence to maternal antiretroviral therapy (ART) and infant Nevirapine prophylaxis (NVP) is low in South Africa. We describe ART adherence amongst a cohort of HIV-positive mothers and HIV-exposed but uninfected infants from 6 weeks until 18 months post-delivery and identify risk factors for nonadherence.

METHODS

Data were collected in 2012-2014 through a nationally representative survey of PMTCT effectiveness. Mother-infant pairs were enrolled during the infant's first immunization visit at 6 weeks. Mothers and HIV-exposed infants (2811 pairs) were followed to 18 months at 3-month intervals. Mothers who self-reported being on ART at 6 weeks postpartum (N = 1572 (55.9%)) and infants on NVP at 6 weeks (N = 2370 (84.3%)) were eligible for this analysis and information about their adherence was captured at each interview they attended thereafter. We defined nonadherence within each 3-month interval as self-report of missing > 5% of daily ART/NVP doses, estimated adherence using a Cox survival curve with Andersen & Gill setup for recurring events, and identified risk factors for nonadherence with an extended Cox regression model (separately for mothers and infants) in Stata 13. Results are not nationally representative as this is a subgroup analysis of the follow-up cohort.

RESULTS

Amongst mothers on ART at 6 weeks postpartum, cumulative adherence to maternal ART until 18 months was 63.4%. Among infants on NPV at 6 weeks postpartum, adherence to NVP was 74.5%.. Risk factors for nonadherence to maternal ART, controlling for other factors, included mother's age (16-24 years vs. ≥34 years, adjusted Hazard Ratio (aHR): 1.9, 95% CI: 1.4-2.5), nondisclosure of HIV status to anyone (nondisclosure vs. disclosure: aHR: 1.7, 95% CI: 1.3-2.1), and timing of ART initiation (initiated ART after delivery vs. initiated ART before delivery: aHR: 1.6, 95% CI: 1.3-2.0). Provincial variation was seen in nonadherence to infant NVP, controlling for other factors.

CONCLUSION

Maintaining ART adherence until 18 months postpartum remains a crucial challenge, with maternal ART adherence among the six week maternal ART cohort below 65% and infant NVP adherence among breastfeeding infants in this cohort below 75%.This is gravely concerning, given the global policy shift to lifelong ART amongst pregnant and lactating women, and the need for extended infant prophylaxis amongst mothers who are not virally suppressed. Our findings suggest that young mothers and mothers who do not disclose their status should be targeted with messages to improve adherence, and that late maternal ART initiation (after delivery) increases the risk of maternal nonadherence.

Clinical impact of an antimicrobial stewardship program on high-risk pediatric patients

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the clinical impact of an antimicrobial stewardship program (ASP) on high-risk pediatric patients.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

Free-standing pediatric hospital.

PATIENTS

This study included patients who received an ASP review between March 3, 2008, and March 2, 2017, and were considered high-risk, including patients receiving care by the neonatal intensive care (NICU), hematology/oncology (H/O), or pediatric intensive care (PICU) medical teams.

METHODS

The ASP recommendations included stopping antibiotics; modifying antibiotic type, dose, or duration; or obtaining an infectious diseases consultation. The outcomes evaluated in all high-risk patients with ASP recommendations were (1) hospital-acquired Clostridium difficile infection, (2) mortality, and (3) 30-day readmission. Subanalyses were conducted to evaluate hospital length of stay (LOS) and tracheitis treatment failure. Multivariable generalized linear models were performed to examine the relationship between ASP recommendations and each outcome after adjusting for clinical service and indication for treatment.

RESULTS

The ASP made 2,088 recommendations, and 50% of these recommendations were to stop antibiotics. Recommendation agreement occurred in 70% of these cases. Agreement with an ASP recommendation was not associated with higher odds of mortality or hospital readmission. Patients with a single ASP review and agreed upon recommendation had a shorter median LOS (10.2 days vs 13.2 days; P &lt; .05). The ASP recommendations were not associated with high rates of tracheitis treatment failure.

CONCLUSIONS

ASP recommendations do not result in worse clinical outcomes among high-risk pediatric patients. Most ASP recommendations are to stop or to narrow antimicrobial therapy. Further work is needed to enhance stewardship efforts in high-risk pediatric patients.

The association of patient-reported improvement and rehabilitation characteristics with mortality

This study aims to investigate the association of patient-reported improvement and rehabilitation characteristics with mortality among older adults who received rehabilitation. To do so, a national sample of Medicare beneficiaries from the National Health and Aging Trends Study was examined. Among those who reported receiving rehabilitation services in the 2015 interview (N = 1,188), 4.2% were deceased at the 2016 follow-up interview. Mortality was more common among those who had received rehabilitation in nursing home or inpatient and in-home settings compared to outpatient rehabilitation settings. In multivariable analyses accounting for demographics and health status, patient-reported worsening of functioning during rehabilitation (OR=15.69; 95% CI: 1.84-133.45) and cardiovascular disease (OR=4.15; 95% CI: 1.41-12.17) were associated with mortality. Among older adults who received rehabilitation, 1 in 25 were deceased at follow-up. That patient-reported functioning is associated with mortality suggests that more systematically including patient-reported outcomes in rehabilitation care may be clinically pertinent.

Development of a trigger tool for the detection of adverse drug events in Chinese geriatric inpatients using the Delphi method

Background The global trigger tool is a method of retrospective medical record review that identifies possible harm in hospitalized patients using "triggers". Elderly patients with multiple co-morbid illnesses are especially vulnerable to adverse drug events (ADEs) that have high prevalence rates. Objective The purpose of this study was to develop an appropriate trigger tool to detect ADEs in Chinese geriatric inpatients by combining a literature review with the Delphi method. Setting Chinese geriatric inpatients. Methods Two steps were used to develop the trigger tool. First, we conducted a comprehensive literature review for existing ADE triggers (adult or elderly) to form the initial triggers for the Delphi process. Second, a group of clinical experts, including physicians, clinical pharmacists and nurses, was established to score candidate triggers for utility according to the usefulness and feasibility of implementing triggers in clinical practice. Main outcome measures The frequency of the full mark, arithmetic mean and coefficient of variation of each trigger. Results An initial set of 51 triggers was selected by literature review for evaluation. The group of experts was composed of 18 clinical experts: 13 physicians, 4 clinical pharmacists, and 1 nurse. Based on the two-phase Delphi process, 42 triggers in five categories (laboratory index, plasma concentration, antidotes, clinical symptoms and intervention) were retained. Conclusion The 42-trigger tool was developed to identify ADEs in Chinese geriatric inpatients. A pilot study that tests the list of triggers to identify ADEs in Chinese geriatric inpatients is the next step for establishing a specific trigger tool for Chinese geriatric inpatients.

Older Adults' Health Care Utilization a Year After Experiencing Fear or Distress from Hurricane Sandy

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether self-reports of disaster-related psychological distress predict older adults' health care utilization during the year after Hurricane Sandy, which hit New Jersey on October 29, 2012.

METHODS

Respondents were from the ORANJ BOWL Study, a random-digit dialed sample from New Jersey recruited from 2006 to 2008. Medicare hospital, emergency department (ED) and outpatient claims data from 2012 and 2013 were matched to 1607 people age 65 and older in 2012 who responded to follow-up surveys conducted from July 2013 to July 2015 to determine their hurricane-related experiences.

RESULTS

In total, 7% (107) of respondents reported they experienced a lot versus 93% (1493) respondents reported they experienced little or no fear and distress from Hurricane Sandy. Those who experienced a lot versus little or no fear and distress had higher probability of all-cause hospital admissions and more ED visits through 3 months (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.19, 95% CI: 1.03-4.63; incidence ratio [IR]: 2.57, 95% CI: 1.21-5.35), and ED and outpatient visits (IR: 2.20, 95% CI: 1.44-3.37; IR: 1.37, 95% CI: 1.02-1.87) through the year after the hurricane.

CONCLUSIONS

A self-reported assessment of disaster-related psychological distress is a strong predictor of older adults' health care needs the year after the disaster. The results indicate that disaster preparedness should extend beyond acute health care needs to address longer-term health consequences of disasters. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2018;12:578-581).

Patient-Reported Outcomes in Functioning Following Nursing Home or Inpatient Rehabilitation

OBJECTIVES

Our study examines factors associated with patient-reported outcomes in functioning among Medicare beneficiaries who reported receiving rehabilitation services in a nursing home or inpatient (ie, hospital or rehabilitation facility) setting in the prior year.

DESIGN

Data are from the 2015 and 2016 rounds of the National Health and Aging Trends Study (NHATS), a longitudinal study of a nationally representative sample of Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 years and older.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

A total of 479 participants in the 2016 sample who reported receiving rehabilitation services in a nursing home or inpatient setting in the past year.

MEASURES

Bivariate and logistic regression analyses examined the association of demographic, socioeconomic status, and health variables (from the 2015 interview) and rehabilitation characteristics (from the 2016 interview) with patient-reported improvement in "functioning and ability to do activities" while receiving rehabilitation services in the past year.

RESULTS

Among Medicare beneficiaries who received rehabilitation services in nursing home or inpatient settings, 33.4% (weighted percent) reported no improvement in functioning while they were receiving rehabilitation. In a regression analysis that accounted for demographics, those with a high school education or less (compared with those with a college degree), instrumental activities of daily living impairments, certain primary conditions for rehabilitation, less than 1-month total duration of rehabilitation services, and no outpatient rehabilitation services had greater odds of reporting no improvement.

CONCLUSIONS/IMPLICATIONS

Our weighted sample represents approximately 2.3 million Medicare beneficiaries who received rehabilitation services in nursing home or inpatient settings. In this sample, 1 in 3 reported no improvement in functioning, with differences in patient-reported outcomes across socioeconomic status, health status, and rehabilitation characteristics domains. Consideration of characteristics across these domains may be clinically pertinent, but investigation as to why these differences are present and whether services can be optimized to further improve patient-reported outcomes is warranted.

Sex differences in the 1-year risk of dying following all-cause and cause-specific hospital admission after age 50 in comparison with a general and non-hospitalised population: a register-based cohort study of the Danish population

OBJECTIVES

We examine the mortality of men and women within the first year after all-cause and cause-specific hospital admission to investigate whether the sex differences in mortality after hospitalisation are higher than in the corresponding general and non-hospitalised population.

DESIGN

This is a population-based, longitudinal study with nationwide coverage. The study population was identified by linking the National Patient Register with the Central Population Register using a 5% random sample of the Danish population.

SETTING

The population born between 1898 and 1961, who was alive and residing in Denmark after 1977, was followed up between 1977 and 2011 with respect to hospital admissions and mortality while aged 50-79.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES

The absolute sex differences in the 1-year risk of dying after all-cause and cause-specific hospital admission. The hospitalised population sex differentials were then compared with the sex differences in a general and a non-hospitalised population, randomly matched by age, sex and hospitalisation status.

RESULTS

The risk of dying was consistently higher for hospitalised men and women. At all ages, the absolute sex differences in mortality were largest in the hospitalised population, were smaller in the general population and were smallest in the non-hospitalised population. This pattern was consistent across all-cause admissions, and with respect to admissions for neoplasms, circulatory diseases and respiratory diseases. For all-cause hospital admissions, absolute sex differences in the 1-year risk of dying resulted in 43.8 excess male deaths per 1,000 individuals within the age range 50-79, while the levels were lower in the general and the non-hospitalised population, at levels of 13.5 and 6.6, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

This study indicates a larger male disadvantage in mortality following hospitalisation, pointing towards an association between the health status of a population and the magnitude of the female advantage in mortality.

Repeat emergency department visits by nursing home residents: a cohort study using health administrative data

BACKGROUND

Nursing home (NH) residents are frequent users of emergency departments (ED) and while prior research suggests that repeat visits are common, there is little data describing this phenomenon. Our objectives were to describe repeat ED visits over one year, identify risk factors for repeat use, and characterize "frequent" ED visitors.

METHODS

Using provincial administrative data from Ontario, Canada, we identified all NH residents 65 years or older who visited an ED at least once between January 1 and March 31, 2010 and then followed them for one year to capture all additional ED visits. Frequent ED visitors were defined as those who had 3 or more repeat ED visits. We used logistic regression to estimate risk factors for any repeat ED visit and for being a frequent visitor and Andersen-Gill regression to estimate risk factors for the rate of repeat ED visits.

RESULTS

In a cohort of 25,653 residents (mean age 84.5 (SD = 7.5) years, 68.2% female), 48.8% had at least one repeat ED visit. Residents who experienced a repeat ED visit were generally similar to others but they tended to be slightly younger, have a higher proportion male, and a higher proportion with minimal cognitive or physical impairment. Risk factors for a repeat ED visit included: being male (adjusted odds ratio 1.27, (95% confidence interval 1.19-1.36)), diagnoses such as diabetes (AOR 1.28 (1.19-1.37)) and congestive heart failure (1.26 (1.16-1.37)), while severe cognitive impairment (AOR 0.92 (0.84-0.99)) and 5 or more chronic conditions (AOR 0.82 (0.71-0.95)) appeared protective. Eleven percent of residents were identified as frequent ED visitors, and they were more often younger then 75 years, male, and less likely to have Alzheimer's disease or other dementias than non-frequent visitors.

CONCLUSIONS

Repeat ED visits were common among NH residents but a relatively small group accounted for the largest number of visits. Although there were few clear defining characteristics, our findings suggest that medically complex residents and younger residents without cognitive impairments are at risk for such outcomes.

The mediation effect of political interest on the connection between social trust and wellbeing among older adults

Previous research has established significant positive associations between social trust and wellbeing among older adults. This study aimed to obtain a deeper understanding of the relationship between different sources of social trust and wellbeing by examining the mediational role of political interest. A sample of 4,406 Italian residents aged 65 years and over was extracted from a national cross-sectional survey during 2013 in Italy, representative of the non-institutionalised population. Measures included trust in people, trust in institutions, political interest, life satisfaction and self-perceived health. Mediation path analysis and structural equation modelling were used to test the mediation effects of political interest on the relationship between trust in people and trust in institutions with life satisfaction and self-perceived health. Associations between trust in people, life satisfaction and self-perceived health, and between trust in institutions and life satisfaction were partially mediated by political interest, while the association between trust in institutions and self-perceived health was fully mediated by political interest. Having high levels of political interest may thus enhance the relationship between social trust and wellbeing among older adults. These results suggest that interventions to enhance wellbeing in older adults may benefit from examining individuals’ levels of political interest.

Religiosity, Social Support and Care Associated with Health in Older Mexicans with Diabetes

The main purpose of this study was to examine the relationships between religiosity, social support, diabetes care and control and self-rated health of people living in Mexico who have been diagnosed with diabetes. Structural equation modeling was used to examine these associations using the Mexican Health and Aging Study, a national representative survey of older Mexicans. Findings indicate that emotional support from one's spouse/partner directly affects diabetes care and control and health. Although there is no direct relationship between religiosity and health, religiosity was positively associated with diabetes care and control, but not significantly related to health.

An Examination of Self-Rated Health Among African-American Men

Self-rated health is a concept that has been linked to objective health outcomes but has not received much attention with regard to African-American men. The purpose of this study is to examine the relation of multiple factors (sociodemographic, health behaviors, personal health measures, and personality traits) with self-rated health in a sample of African-American men. The role personality plays in self-rated health in combination with other variables among African-American males has not thoroughly been explored. One hundred and seventy African-American men, ages 30-70 years old, were recruited for this study and completed a questionnaire assessing self-rated health, sociodemographics, health behaviors, personal health measures, and personality traits. Block-wise regression modeling was employed. The blocks were sociodemographics, health behaviors, personal health measures, and personality traits. Variables significantly associated with self-rated health in block-wise regression analyses at P < .05 (household income, BMI, number of health conditions, and neuroticism) were entered into the final multiple logistic regression model. Being obese was associated with greater odds of poor/fair self-rated health compared to being normal weight (OR = 9.02, 95 % CI 2.85-28.51, P < .001). Compared to reporting no health conditions, having more than one health condition was associated with greater odds of reporting poor/fair self-rated health (OR = 4.82, 95 % CI 1.18-19.69, P = .029). This study shows that existing medical conditions are important determinants of self-rated health among African-American men.

Identification of risk factors for hospital admission using multiple-failure survival models: a toolkit for researchers

BACKGROUND

The UK population is ageing; improved understanding of risk factors for hospital admission is required. Linkage of the Hertfordshire Cohort Study (HCS) with Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) data has created a multiple-failure survival dataset detailing the characteristics of 2,997 individuals at baseline (1998-2004, average age 66 years) and their hospital admissions (regarded as 'failure events') over a 10 year follow-up. Analysis of risk factors using logistic regression or time to first event Cox modelling wastes information as an individual's admissions after their first are disregarded. Sophisticated analysis techniques are established to examine risk factors for admission in such datasets but are not commonly implemented.

METHODS

We review analysis techniques for multiple-failure survival datasets (logistic regression; time to first event Cox modelling; and the Andersen and Gill [AG] and Prentice, Williams and Peterson Total Time [PWP-TT] multiple-failure models), outline their implementation in Stata, and compare their results in an analysis of housing tenure (a marker of socioeconomic position) as a risk factor for different types of hospital admission (any; emergency; elective; >7 days). The AG and PWP-TT models include full admissions histories in the analysis of risk factors for admission and account for within-subject correlation of failure times. The PWP-TT model is also stratified on the number of previous failure events, allowing an individual's baseline risk of admission to increase with their number of previous admissions.

RESULTS

All models yielded broadly similar results: not owner-occupying one's home was associated with increased risk of hospital admission. Estimated effect sizes were smaller from the PWP-TT model in comparison with other models owing to it having accounted for an increase in risk of admission with number of previous admissions. For example, hazard ratios [HR] from time to first event Cox models were 1.67(95 % CI: 1.36,2.04) and 1.63(95 % CI:1.36,1.95) for not owner-occupying one's home in relation to risk of emergency admission or death among women and men respectively; corresponding HRs from the PWP-TT model were 1.34(95 % CI:1.15,1.56) for women and 1.23(95 % CI:1.07,1.41) for men.

CONCLUSION

The PWP-TT model may be implemented using routine statistical software and is recommended for the analysis of multiple-failure survival datasets which detail repeated hospital admissions among older people.

Poor Self-Rated Health Influences Hospital Service Use in Hospitalized Inpatients With Chronic Conditions in Taiwan

Our aim was to investigate the association between self-rated health (SRH) and use of hospital services (ie, medical outpatient department, emergency department, and general ward. admissions). Cross-sectional study data were collected from 230 consecutive patients admitted to medical departments of a 2000-bed academic medical center in Taiwan using standardized operating procedures for data collection of SRH (ie, a single-item question inquiring overall perceived health status), medical disorders, depressive symptoms, and combined service utilization over a 1-year period (ie, number of visits to outpatient department, number of visits to emergency department, and number of hospitalizations). Electronic medical records were retrieved, with self-reported external medical visits added to in-hospital frequencies of service use to provide better estimation of health service utilization. Fifty-two percent of study patients rated their health as poor or very poor. Poor SRH was associated with more visits to medical outpatient department, emergency department, and hospital admission. Multivariate logistic regression demonstrated an independent association between poor SRH and services utilization after adjustment for age, gender, hypertension, diabetes, metastatic cancer, number of chronic illness, life-threatening event, life-time suicidal ideation, and depression. SRH may be a useful research tool to model medical service use for inpatients with chronic conditions.

Health behaviors and quality of life predictors for risk of hospitalization in an electronic health record-linked biobank

Background

Hospital risk stratification models using electronic health records (EHRs) often use age and comorbid health burden. Our primary aim was to determine if quality of life or health behaviors captured in an EHR-linked biobank can predict future risk of hospitalization.

Methods

Participants in the Mayo Clinic Biobank completed self-administered questionnaires at enrollment that included quality of life and health behaviors. Participants enrolled as of December 31, 2010 were followed for one year to ascertain hospitalization. Data on comorbidities and hospitalization were derived from the Mayo Clinic EHR. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were used, adjusted for age and sex. We used gradient boosting machines models to integrate multiple factors. Different models were compared using C-statistic.

Results

Of the 8,927 eligible Mayo Clinic Biobank participants, 834 (9.3%) were hospitalized. Self-perceived health status and alcohol use had the strongest associations with risk of hospitalization. Compared to participants with excellent self-perceived health, those reporting poor/fair health had higher risk of hospitalization (HR =3.66, 95% CI 2.74–4.88). Alcohol use was inversely associated with hospitalization (HR =0.57 95% CI 0.45–0.72). The gradient boosting machines model estimated self-perceived health as the most influential factor (relative influence =16%). The predictive ability of the model based on comorbidities was slightly higher than the one based on the self-perceived health (C-statistic =0.67 vs 0.65).

Conclusion

This study demonstrates that self-perceived health may be an important piece of information to add to the EHR. It may be another method to determine hospitalization risk.

When do patient-reported outcome measures inform readmission risk?

OBJECTIVE

To characterize changes in patient-reported outcome measures from hospital discharge to assess when they best inform risk of utilization as defined by readmissions or emergency department use.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients discharged from an urban safety-net hospital.

DESIGN

Longitudinal cohort study.

MAIN MEASURES

We serially administered the Memorial Symptom Assessment Scale (MSAS) and the PROMIS Global Health short form assessing General Self-Rated Health (GSRH), Global Physical (GPH), and Mental (GMH) Health at 0, 30, 90, and 180 days from hospital discharge. Time to first utilization from each survey was plotted by dichotomizing our sample on each patient-reported measure, and equivalence of the time-to-event curves was assessed using the log-rank test. Cox proportional hazard models were used to control for available covariates including prior utilization during the study, Charlson score, age, gender, and race/ethnicity. We assessed each measure's effect on the fit of the predictive models using the likelihood ratio test.

KEY RESULTS

We recruited 196 patients, of whom 100%, 98%, 90%, and 88% completed each respective survey wave. Participants' mean age was 52 years, 51% were women, 60% were non-Hispanic black, and 21% completed the questionnaires in Spanish. In-hospital assessments revealed high symptom burden and poor health status. In-hospital assessments of GMH and GSRH predicted 14-day reutilization, whereas posthospitalization assessments of MSAS and GPH predicted subsequent utilizations. Each measure selectively improved predictive model fit.

CONCLUSIONS

Routine measurement of patient-reported outcomes can help identify patients at higher risk for utilizations. At different time points, MSAS, GPH, GMH, and GSRH all informed utilization risk.

Benefits gained, benefits lost: comparing baby boomers to other generations in a longitudinal cohort study of self-rated health

POLICY POINTS: Despite beliefs that baby boomers are healthier than previous generations, we found no evidence that the health of baby boomers is substantially different from that of the previous or succeeding cohorts. The effects of increased education, higher income, and lower smoking rates on improving self-rated health were nearly counterbalanced by the adverse effect of increasing body mass index (BMI). Assumptions that baby boomers will require less health care as they age because of better education, more prosperity, and less propensity to smoke may not be realized because of increases in obesity.

CONTEXT

Baby boomers are commonly believed to be healthier than the previous generation. Using self-rated health (SRH) as an indicator of health status, this study examines the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on the trajectory of health across 4 generations: World War II (born between 1935 and 1944), older baby boomers (born between 1945 and 1954), younger baby boomers (born between 1955 and 1964), and Generation X (born between 1965 and 1974).

METHODS

We analyzed Canada's longitudinal National Population Health Survey 1994-2010 (n = 8,570 at baseline), using multilevel growth models to estimate the age trajectory of SRH by cohort, accounting for period and incorporating the influence of changes in education, household income, smoking status, and body mass index (BMI) on SRH over time.

FINDINGS

SRH worsened with increasing age in all cohorts. Cohort differences in SRH were modest (p = 0.034), but there was a significant period effect (p = 0.002). We found marked cohort effects for increasing education, income, and BMI, and decreasing smoking from the youngest to the oldest cohorts, which were much reduced (education and smoking) or removed (income and BMI) once period was taken into account. At the population level, multivariable analysis showed the benefits of increasing education and income and declines in smoking on the trajectory of improving SRH were almost counterbalanced by the effects of increasing BMI (obesity).

CONCLUSIONS

We found no evidence to support the expectation that baby boomers will age more or less healthily than previous cohorts did. We also found that increasing BMI has likely undermined improvements in health that might have otherwise occurred, with possible implications for the need for health care. Period effects had a more profound effect than birth cohort effects. This suggests that interventions to improve health, such as reducing obesity, can be targeted to the entire, or a major portion of the, population and need not single out particular birth cohorts.

Modelling recurrent events: a tutorial for analysis in epidemiology

In many biomedical studies, the event of interest can occur more than once in a participant. These events are termed recurrent events. However, the majority of analyses focus only on time to the first event, ignoring the subsequent events. Several statistical models have been proposed for analysing multiple events. In this paper we explore and illustrate several modelling techniques for analysis of recurrent time-to-event data, including conditional models for multivariate survival data (AG, PWP-TT and PWP-GT), marginal means/rates models, frailty and multi-state models. We also provide a tutorial for analysing such type of data, with three widely used statistical software programmes. Different approaches and software are illustrated using data from a bladder cancer project and from a study on lower respiratory tract infection in children in Brazil. Finally, we make recommendations for modelling strategy selection for analysis of recurrent event data.

Self-rated health in the last 12 years of life compared to matched surviving controls: the Health and Retirement Study

Self-rated health (SRH) is a valid measure of health status and associated with mortality. Based on individual-level biannual repeat data on SRH we sought to characterize the natural history of poor SRH during the 12 years prior to death in men and women in different age groups. We conducted a retrospective analysis of the Health and Retirement Study participants who died between 1998 and 2010 and had at least two SRH measurements in the 12 years prior to death. We used a nested case-control design to compare SRH trajectories of deceased men and women aged 30–64, 65–79 and 80 years versus surviving participants. The cases comprised 3,350 deceased participants who were matched to surviving controls (n = 8,127). SRH was dichotomized into good vs. poor health. Men and women dying at age 65–79 and ≥80 years had 1.5 to 3 times higher prevalence of poor SRH already 11–12 years prior to death compared to surviving controls. The risk estimates remained statistically significant even after adjusting for life-style related risk factors and diagnosed diseases. Prevalence of poor SRH before death was lowest among those aged ≥80 years and highest in 30–64 year-olds. In conclusion, men and women who subsequently die perceive their health worse already 11–12 years prior to death compared to their surviving controls.

Trajectory of overall health from self-report and factors contributing to health declines among cancer survivors

PURPOSE

This study aims to quantify trajectories of overall health pre- and post-diagnosis of cancer, trajectories of overall health among cancer-free individuals, and factors affecting overall health status.

METHODS

Overall health status, derived from self-rated health report, of Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities cohort participants diagnosed with incident cancer [lung (n = 400), breast (n = 522), prostate (n = 615), colorectal (n = 303)], and cancer-free participants (n = 11,634) over 19 years was examined. Overall health was evaluated in two ways: (1) overall health was assessed until death or follow-up year 19 (survivorship model) and (2) same as survivorship model except that a self-rated health value of zero was used for assessments after death to follow-up year 19 (cohort model). Mean overall health at discrete times was used to generate overall health trajectories. Differences in repeated measures of overall health were assessed using linear growth models.

RESULTS

Overall health trajectories declined dramatically within one-year of cancer diagnosis. Lung, breast, and colorectal cancer were associated with a significant decreased overall health score (β) compared to the cancer-free group (survivorship model: lung-7.00, breast-3.97, colorectal-2.12; cohort model: lung-7.63, breast-5.07, colorectal-2.30). Other predictors of decreased overall health score included low education, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and age.

CONCLUSIONS

All incident cancer groups had declines in overall health during the first year post-diagnosis, which could be due to cancer diagnosis or intensive treatments. Targeting factors related to overall health declines could improve health outcomes for cancer patients.

Relationship of self-rated health with fatal and non-fatal outcomes in cardiovascular disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

People who rate their health as poor experience higher all-cause mortality. Study of disease-specific association with self-rated health might increase understanding of why this association exists.

Objectives

To estimate the strength of association between self-rated health and fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease.

Methods

A comprehensive search of PubMed MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, BIOSIS, PsycINFO, DARE, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science was undertaken during June 2013. Two reviewers independently searched databases and selected studies. Inclusion criteria were prospective cohort studies or cohort analyses of randomised trials with baseline measurement of self-rated health with fatal or non-fatal cardiovascular outcomes. 20 studies were pooled quantitatively in different meta-analyses. Study quality was assessed using Newcastle-Ottawa scales.

Results

‘Poor’ relative to ‘excellent’ self-rated health (defined by most extreme categories in each study, most often’ poor’ or ‘very poor’ and ‘excellent’ or ‘good’) was associated over a follow-up of 2.3–23 years with cardiovascular mortality in studies: where varying degrees of adjustments had been made for cardiovascular disease risk (HR 1.79 (95% CI 1.50 to 2.14); 15 studies, I2 = 71.24%), and in studies reporting outcomes in people with pre-existing cardiovascular disease or ischaemic heart disease symptoms (HR 2.42 (95% CI 1.32 to 4.44); 3 studies; I2 = 71.83%). ‘Poor’ relative to ‘excellent’ self rated health was also associated with the combined outcome of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular events (HR 1.90 (95% CI 1.26 to 2.87); 5 studies; I² = 68.61%), Self-rated health was not significantly associated with non-fatal cardiovascular disease outcomes (HR 1.66 (95% CI 0.96 to 2.87); 5 studies; I2 = 83.60%).

Conclusions

Poor self rated health is associated with cardiovascular mortality in populations with and without prior cardiovascular disease. Those with current poor self-rated health may warrant additional input from health services to identify and address reasons for their low subjective health.

Biological health or lived health: which predicts self-reported general health better?

BACKGROUND

Lived health is a person's level of functioning in his or her current environment and depends both on the person's environment and biological health. Our study addresses the question whether biological health or lived health is more predictive of self-reported general health (SRGH).

METHODS

This is a psychometric study using cross-sectional data from the Spanish Survey on Disability, Independence and Dependency Situation. Data was collected from 17,739 people in the community and 9,707 from an institutionalized population. The following analysis steps were performed: (1) a biological health and a lived health score were calculated for each person by constructing a biological health scale and a lived health scale using Samejima's Graded Response Model; and (2) variable importance measures were calculated for each study population using Random Forest, with SRGH as the dependent variable and the biological health and the lived health scores as independent variables.

RESULTS

The levels of biological health were higher for the community-dwelling population than for the institutionalized population. When technical assistance, personal assistance or both were received, the difference in lived health between the community-dwelling population and institutionalized population was smaller. According to Random Forest's variable importance measures, for both study populations, lived health is a more important predictor of SRGH than biological health.

CONCLUSIONS

In general, people base their evaluation of their own health on their lived health experience rather than their experience of biological health. This study also sheds light on the challenges of assessing biological health and lived health at the general population level.

Falls efficacy and self-rated health in older African American adults

Fear of falling and mobility restrictions have a significant negative impact on the quality of life of older adults. Because older African American adults are at increased risk for various modifiable health problems, understanding potential constraints on their overall health and mobility is critical in this population. The current study investigated this issue by analyzing a dataset of 449 older African American adults (mean age=72.3 years) living in Detroit. We characterized and investigated the relationships among the following falls- and health-related variables: previous falls, falls efficacy, mobility, self-rated health (SRH), and depression and well-being. As a whole, participants reported moderate health and well-being, little depression, few mobility problems (mean=8.4/40), and very high falls efficacy (mean=94.9/100) despite the fact that a quarter of the sample experienced a fall within the past year. Correlation results indicated that previous falls, falls efficacy, mobility, SRH and depression and well-being were all inter-related. Regression analyses revealed that higher falls efficacy was more closely associated with better SRH than was having previously fallen. Findings suggest that improving falls efficacy in older African American adults may be beneficial to their mobility and overall health and well-being. Further, by asking a single-item SRH question, clinicians may be able to quickly identify older African American adults who have low falls efficacy and are at high risk for falling.

Self-rated health and cardiovascular disease incidence: results from a longitudinal population-based cohort in Norfolk, UK

INTRODUCTION

Self-rated health (SRH) predicts chronic disease morbidity including cardiovascular disease (CVD). In a population-based cohort, we examined the association between SRH and incident CVD and whether this association was independent of socio-demographic, clinical and behavioural participant characteristics.

METHODS

Population-based prospective cohort study (European Prospective Investigation of Cancer-Norfolk). 20,941 men and women aged 39-74 years without prevalent CVD attended a baseline health examination (1993-1998) and were followed for CVD events/death until March 2007 (mean 11 years). We used a Cox proportional hazards model to quantify the association between baseline SRH (reported on a four point scale--excellent, good, fair, poor) and risk of developing CVD at follow-up after adjusting for socio-demographic, clinical and behavioural risk factors.

RESULTS

Baseline SRH was reported as excellent by 17.8% participants, good by 65.1%, fair by 16.0% and poor by 1.2%. During 225,508 person-years of follow-up, there were 55 (21.2%) CVD events in the poor SRH group and 259 (7.0%) in the excellent SRH group (HR 3.7, 95% CI 2.8-4.9). The HR remained significant after adjustment for behavioural risk factors (HR 2.6, 95% CI 1.9-3.5) and after adjustment for all socio-demographic, clinical and behavioural risk factors (HR 3.3, 95% CI 2.4-4.4). Associations were strong for both fatal and non-fatal events and remained strong over time.

CONCLUSIONS

SRH is a strong predictor of incident fatal and non-fatal CVD events in this healthy, middle-aged population. Some of the association is explained by lifestyle behaviours, but SRH remains a strong predictor after adjustment for socio-demographic, clinical and behavioural risk factors and after a decade of follow-up. This easily accessible patient-centred measure of health status may be a useful indicator of individual and population health for those working in primary care and public health.

Planning for baseline medical care needs of a displaced population after a disaster

OBJECTIVE

To build a tool to assist disaster response planning and estimate the numbers of displaced persons that will require special medical care during a disaster.

METHODS

We developed a tool, titled MedCon:PreEvent, which incorporates data from the 2006 National Health Interview Survey, 2005 National Hospital Discharge Survey, and 2004 National Nursing Home Survey to calculate numbers of emergency room/emergency department (ER/ED) visits, surgeries, health care home visits, overnight hospital stays, office visits, and self-rated health status. We then used thresholds of more than 12 office visits or 6 or more ER/ED visits or 6 or more surgeries or more than 4 home visits or more than 6 overnight hospital stays within the past 12 months to calculate rates per million evacuees requiring special medical care, including daily bed hospital and nursing home bed occupancy.

RESULTS

We calculated that 79 428 (95% CI = 76 940-81 770) per million evacuees would need special medical care. The daily occupation of hospital beds would be 1710 beds (95% CI = 1328-2160) per million. The occupation of nursing home beds would be 5094 beds (95% CI = 5040-5148) per million. Changing the threshold to just those who self-rated health as "poor," the demand for special medical care would be 24 348 (95% CI = 23 087-25 535) per million. Using threshold utilization values at half the original level would increase the estimate to 226 988 (95% CI = 224 444-229 384) per million.

CONCLUSIONS

A substantial number of persons with preexisting conditions will need suitable medical care following a disaster. The MedCon:PreEvent tool can assist disaster planners to prepare for medical care needs of large numbers of evacuees and consider re-evaluating the approach to utilizing and augmenting medical care services.

Self-rated health and symptomatic knee osteoarthritis over three years: data from a multicenter observational cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To determine if a previously published model of the influence of self-rated health on physical, mental, and social health among patients with joint replacement surgery could be generalized to persons with symptomatic knee osteoarthritis (OA). Our second purpose was to determine if self-rated health mediated changes in physical, mental, and social health.

METHODS

Persons with symptomatic knee OA (n = 1,127) who participated in the Osteoarthritis Initiative study completed the required measures at baseline and at 1-, 2-, and 3-year intervals. The key variable of interest was a single-item self-rated health measure. In addition, measures of physical, mental, and social health and a set of covariate measures over the 3-year period were analyzed. Structural equation modeling was used to test interrelationships among variables, as well as predictive and mediational relationships among self-rated health and mental, physical, and social health after adjusting for baseline covariates.

RESULTS

The full model demonstrated good statistical fit. Prior self-rated health consistently predicted current mental health and social health. Prior social health predicted current self-rated health. Self-rated health also mediated changes in mental health and social health. Only social health changes were mediated by self-rated health over all time periods.

CONCLUSION

Self-rated health predicts a variety of outcomes of symptomatic knee OA. In addition, self-rated health mediates changes in social health and mental health. The use of self-rated health as a simple and efficient clinical assessment has potential for clinical utility because of its predictive capability and association with multiple health domains.

The association between excess weight and comorbidity and self-rated health in the Italian population

PURPOSE

To evaluate the association of obesity with comorbidity and with subjective health perception in a large sample representative of the Italian population and how the association differs by age and gender.

METHODS

Cross-sectional data were obtained from nine waves of the "Multipurpose Household Survey," conducted by the Italian National Institute of Statistics. Self-reported height and weight, six weight-associated diseases and self-rated health (SRH) were evaluated on 352,020 subjects aged 20 to 89 years. Comorbidity was defined as the presence of two or more diseases.

RESULTS

The prevalence of comorbidity was significantly different between obese and normal weight subjects in all age categories. SRH was worse in obese subjects than in those of normal weight; this difference persisted, at least in females, into older ages.

CONCLUSIONS

Obesity is associated with comorbidity and self-rated health; this association varies across ages and genders. The results found for obese subjects of a given age category were similar to (or worse than) those found for older normal weight subjects of the next age class. For comorbidity, this was true both in males and in females of all the considered age categories; for SRH, this was true in particular for females and younger males.

Marital status, self-rated health, and mortality: overestimation of health or diminishing protection of marriage?

This study challenges two well-established associations in medical sociology: the beneficial effect of marriage on health and the predictive power of self-rated health on mortality. Using The National Health Interview Survey 1986-2004 with 1986-2006 mortality follow-up (789,096 respondents with 24,095 deaths) and Cox Proportional Hazards Models, we find the protective effect of marriage against mortality decreases with deteriorating health so that the married and unmarried in poor health are at similar risk for death. We also find the power of self-rated health to predict mortality is higher for the married than for any unmarried group. By using ordered logistic regression models, we find thresholds shift such that, compared to the unmarried, the married may not report poorer health until developing more severe health problems. These findings suggest the married tend to overestimate their health status. These two phenomena (diminishing protection and overestimation) contribute to but do not completely explain each other.

Self-rated health trajectories in the African American health cohort

BACKGROUND

Self-rated health taps health holistically and dynamically blends prior health histories with current illness burdens and expectations for future health. While consistently found as an independent predictor of functional decline, sentinel health events, physician visits, hospital episodes, and mortality, much less is known about intra-individual changes in self-rated health across the life course, especially for African Americans.

MATERIALS/METHODS

Data on 998 African American men and women aged 50-64 years old were taken from a probability-based community sample that was first assessed in 2000-2001 and re-assessed 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, and 9 years later. Using an innovative approach for including decedents in the analysis, semi-parametric group-based mixture models were used to identify person-centered group trajectories of self-rated health over time. Multivariable multinomial logistic regression analysis was then used to differentiate the characteristics of AAH participants classified into the different group trajectories.

RESULTS

Four self-rated health group trajectories were identified: persistently good health, good but declining health, persistently fair health, and fair but declining health. The main characteristics that differentiated the self-rated health trajectory groups from each other were age, education, smoking, morbidity (angina, congestive heart failure, diabetes, and kidney disease), having been hospitalized in the year prior to baseline, depressive symptoms, mobility limitations, and initial self-rated health.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first study to examine self-rated health trajectories separately among African Americans. Four qualitatively distinct self-rated health group trajectories were identified that call into question the accuracy of prior reports that a single, average self-rated health trajectory for African Americans adequately captures their within-group heterogeneity.