Are Alternative Strategies Required to Accelerate the Global Elimination of Lymphatic Filariasis? Insights From Mathematical Models

Microplanning improves stakeholders' perceived capacity and engagement to implement lymphatic filariasis mass drug administration

BACKGROUND

Achieving adequate mass drug administration (MDA) coverage for lymphatic filariasis is challenging. We sought to improve stakeholder engagement in MDA planning and increase subsequent MDA coverage through a series of microplanning workshops.

METHODOLOGY

Prior to the 2018 MDA, Haiti's Ministry of Public Health and Population (MSPP) and partners conducted 10 stakeholder microplanning workshops in metropolitan Port-au-Prince. The objectives of the workshops were to identify and address gaps in geographic coverage of supervision areas (SAs); review past MDA performance and propose strategies to improve access to MDA; and review roles and responsibilities of MDA personnel through increased stakeholder engagement. Retrospective pre-testing was employed to assess the effectiveness of the workshops. Participants used a 5-point scale to rank their understanding of past performance, SA boundaries, roles and responsibilities, and their perceived engagement by MSPP. Participants simultaneously ranked their previous year's attitudes and their attitudes about MDA following the 2-day microplanning workshop. Changes in pre- and post-scores were analyzed using Wilcoxon signed-rank tests.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

A total of 356 stakeholders across five communes participated in the workshops. Participants conducted various planning activities, including revising SA boundaries to ensure full geographic reach of MDA, proposing or validating social mobilization strategies, and proposing other MDA improvements. Compared with previous year rankings, the workshops increased participant understanding of past performance by 1.34 points (standard deviation [SD] = 1.05, p <0.001); SA boundaries by 1.14 points (SD = 1.30; p <0.001); their roles and responsibilities by 0.71 points (SD = 0.95, p <0.001); and sense of engagement by 1.03 points (SD = 1.08, p <0.001). Additionally, compared with 2017, drug coverage increased in all five communes during the 2018 MDA.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Participatory stakeholder workshops during MDA planning can increase self-reported engagement of key personnel and may improve staff performance and contribute to achievement of drug coverage targets. Microplanning success was supported by MDA results, with all communes achieving preset MDA coverage targets.

Persons 'never treated' in mass drug administration for lymphatic filariasis: identifying programmatic and research needs from a series of research review meetings 2020-2021

As neglected tropical disease programs rely on participation in rounds of mass drug administration (MDA), there is concern that individuals who have never been treated could contribute to ongoing transmission, posing a barrier to elimination. Previous research has suggested that the size and characteristics of the never-treated population may be important but have not been sufficiently explored. To address this critical knowledge gap, four meetings were held from December 2020 to May 2021 to compile expert knowledge on never treatment in lymphatic filariasis (LF) MDA programs. The meetings explored four questions: the number and proportion of people never treated, their sociodemographic characteristics, their infection status and the reasons why they were not treated. Meeting discussions noted key issues requiring further exploration, including how to standardize measurement of the never treated, adapt and use existing tools to capture never-treated data and ensure representation of never-treated people in data collection. Recognizing that patterns of never treatment are situation specific, participants noted measurement should be quick, inexpensive and focused on local solutions. Furthermore, programs should use existing data to generate mathematical models to understand what levels of never treatment may compromise LF elimination goals or trigger programmatic action.

Distinguishing recrudescence from reinfection in lymphatic filariasis

BACKGROUND

The Global Program to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (GPELF) is the largest public health program based on mass drug administration (MDA). Despite decades of MDA, ongoing transmission in some countries remains a challenge. To optimise interventions, it is critical to differentiate between recrudescence and new infections. Since adult filariae are inaccessible in humans, deriving a method that relies on the offspring microfilariae (mf) is necessary.

METHODS

We developed a genome amplification and kinship analysis-based approach using Brugia malayi samples from gerbils, and applied it to analyse Wuchereria bancrofti mf from humans in Côte d'Ivoire. We examined the pre-treatment genetic diversity in 269 mf collected from 18 participants, and further analysed 1-year post-treatment samples of 74 mf from 4 participants. Hemizygosity of the male X-chromosome allowed for direct inference of haplotypes, facilitating robust maternal parentage inference. To enrich parasite DNA from samples contaminated with host DNA, a whole-exome capture panel was created for W. bancrofti.

FINDINGS

By reconstructing and temporally tracking sibling relationships across pre- and post-treatment samples, we differentiated between new and established maternal families, suggesting reinfection in one participant and recrudescence in three participants. The estimated number of reproductively active adult females ranged between 3 and 11 in the studied participants. Population structure analysis revealed genetically distinct parasites in Côte d'Ivoire compared to samples from other countries. Exome capture identified protein-coding variants with ∼95% genotype concordance rate.

INTERPRETATION

We have generated resources to facilitate the development of molecular genetic tools that can estimate adult worm burdens and monitor parasite populations, thus providing essential information for the successful implementation of GPELF.

FUNDING

This work was financially supported by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (https://www.gatesfoundation.org) under grant OPP1201530 (Co-PIs PUF & Gary J. Weil). B. malayi parasite material was generated with support of the Foundation for Barnes Jewish Hospital (PUF). In addition, the development of computational methods was supported by the National Institutes of Health under grants AI144161 (MM) and AI146353 (MM). The funders had no role in the study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.

Heterogeneity in elimination efforts could increase the risk of resurgence of lymphatic filariasis in Madagascar

BACKGROUND

Progress in lymphatic filariasis (LF) elimination is spatially heterogeneous in many endemic countries, which may lead to resurgence in areas that have achieved elimination. Understanding the drivers and consequences of such heterogeneity could help inform strategies to reach global LF elimination goals by 2030. This study assesses whether differences in age-specific compliance with mass drug administration (MDA) could explain LF prevalence patterns in southeastern Madagascar and explores how spatial heterogeneity in prevalence and age-specific MDA compliance may affect the risk of LF resurgence after transmission interruption.

METHODOLOGY

We used LYMFASIM model with parameters in line with the context of southeastern Madagascar and explored a wide range of scenarios with different MDA compliance for adults and children (40-100%) to estimate the proportion of elimination, non-elimination and resurgence events associated with each scenario. Finally, we evaluated the risk of resurgence associated with different levels of migration (2-6%) from surrounding districts combined with varying levels of LF microfilaria (mf) prevalence (0-24%) during that same study period.

RESULTS

Differences in MDA compliance between adults and children better explained the observed heterogeneity in LF prevalence for these age groups than differences in exposure alone. The risk of resurgence associated with differences in MDA compliance scenarios ranged from 0 to 19% and was highest when compliance was high for children (e.g. 90%) and low for adults (e.g. 50%). The risk of resurgence associated with migration was generally higher, exceeding 60% risk for all the migration levels explored (2-6% per year) when mf prevalence in the source districts was between 9% and 20%.

CONCLUSION

Gaps in the implementation of LF elimination programme can increase the risk of resurgence and undermine elimination efforts. In Madagascar, districts that have not attained elimination pose a significant risk for those that have achieved it. More research is needed to help guide LF elimination programme on the optimal strategies for surveillance and control that maximize the chances to sustain elimination and avoid resurgence.

An Ensemble Framework for Projecting the Impact of Lymphatic Filariasis Interventions Across Sub-Saharan Africa at a Fine Spatial Scale

BACKGROUND

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a neglected tropical disease targeted for elimination as a public health problem by 2030. Although mass treatments have led to huge reductions in LF prevalence, some countries or regions may find it difficult to achieve elimination by 2030 owing to various factors, including local differences in transmission. Subnational projections of intervention impact are a useful tool in understanding these dynamics, but correctly characterizing their uncertainty is challenging.

METHODS

We developed a computationally feasible framework for providing subnational projections for LF across 44 sub-Saharan African countries using ensemble models, guided by historical control data, to allow assessment of the role of subnational heterogeneities in global goal achievement. Projected scenarios include ongoing annual treatment from 2018 to 2030, enhanced coverage, and biannual treatment.

RESULTS

Our projections suggest that progress is likely to continue well. However, highly endemic locations currently deploying strategies with the lower World Health Organization recommended coverage (65%) and frequency (annual) are expected to have slow decreases in prevalence. Increasing intervention frequency or coverage can accelerate progress by up to 5 or 6 years, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

While projections based on baseline data have limitations, our methodological advancements provide assessments of potential bottlenecks for the global goals for LF arising from subnational heterogeneities. In particular, areas with high baseline prevalence may face challenges in achieving the 2030 goals, extending the "tail" of interventions. Enhancing intervention frequency and/or coverage will accelerate progress. Our approach facilitates preimplementation assessments of the impact of local interventions and is applicable to other regions and neglected tropical diseases.

Subnational Projections of Lymphatic Filariasis Elimination Targets in Ethiopia to Support National Level Policy

BACKGROUND

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a debilitating, poverty-promoting, neglected tropical disease (NTD) targeted for worldwide elimination as a public health problem (EPHP) by 2030. Evaluating progress towards this target for national programmes is challenging, due to differences in disease transmission and interventions at the subnational level. Mathematical models can help address these challenges by capturing spatial heterogeneities and evaluating progress towards LF elimination and how different interventions could be leveraged to achieve elimination by 2030.

METHODS

Here we used a novel approach to combine historical geo-spatial disease prevalence maps of LF in Ethiopia with 3 contemporary disease transmission models to project trends in infection under different intervention scenarios at subnational level.

RESULTS

Our findings show that local context, particularly the coverage of interventions, is an important determinant for the success of control and elimination programmes. Furthermore, although current strategies seem sufficient to achieve LF elimination by 2030, some areas may benefit from the implementation of alternative strategies, such as using enhanced coverage or increased frequency, to accelerate progress towards the 2030 targets.

CONCLUSIONS

The combination of geospatial disease prevalence maps of LF with transmission models and intervention histories enables the projection of trends in infection at the subnational level under different control scenarios in Ethiopia. This approach, which adapts transmission models to local settings, may be useful to inform the design of optimal interventions at the subnational level in other LF endemic regions.

How Does the Proportion of Never Treatment Influence the Success of Mass Drug Administration Programs for the Elimination of Lymphatic Filariasis?

BACKGROUND

Mass drug administration (MDA) is the cornerstone for the elimination of lymphatic filariasis (LF). The proportion of the population that is never treated (NT) is a crucial determinant of whether this goal is achieved within reasonable time frames.

METHODS

Using 2 individual-based stochastic LF transmission models, we assess the maximum permissible level of NT for which the 1% microfilaremia (mf) prevalence threshold can be achieved (with 90% probability) within 10 years under different scenarios of annual MDA coverage, drug combination and transmission setting.

RESULTS

For Anopheles-transmission settings, we find that treating 80% of the eligible population annually with ivermectin + albendazole (IA) can achieve the 1% mf prevalence threshold within 10 years of annual treatment when baseline mf prevalence is 10%, as long as NT <10%. Higher proportions of NT are acceptable when more efficacious treatment regimens are used. For Culex-transmission settings with a low (5%) baseline mf prevalence and diethylcarbamazine + albendazole (DA) or ivermectin + diethylcarbamazine + albendazole (IDA) treatment, elimination can be reached if treatment coverage among eligibles is 80% or higher. For 10% baseline mf prevalence, the target can be achieved when the annual coverage is 80% and NT ≤15%. Higher infection prevalence or levels of NT would make achieving the target more difficult.

CONCLUSIONS

The proportion of people never treated in MDA programmes for LF can strongly influence the achievement of elimination and the impact of NT is greater in high transmission areas. This study provides a starting point for further development of criteria for the evaluation of NT.

Reducing the Antigen Prevalence Target Threshold for Stopping and Restarting Mass Drug Administration for Lymphatic Filariasis Elimination: A Model-Based Cost-effectiveness Simulation in Tanzania, India and Haiti

BACKGROUND

The Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (GPELF) aims to reduce and maintain infection levels through mass drug administration (MDA), but there is evidence of ongoing transmission after MDA in areas where Culex mosquitoes are the main transmission vector, suggesting that a more stringent criterion is required for MDA decision making in these settings.

METHODS

We use a transmission model to investigate how a lower prevalence threshold (<1% antigenemia [Ag] prevalence compared with <2% Ag prevalence) for MDA decision making would affect the probability of local elimination, health outcomes, the number of MDA rounds, including restarts, and program costs associated with MDA and surveys across different scenarios. To determine the cost-effectiveness of switching to a lower threshold, we simulated 65% and 80% MDA coverage of the total population for different willingness to pay per disability-adjusted life-year averted for India ($446.07), Tanzania ($389.83), and Haiti ($219.84).

RESULTS

Our results suggest that with a lower Ag threshold, there is a small proportion of simulations where extra rounds are required to reach the target, but this also reduces the need to restart MDA later in the program. For 80% coverage, the lower threshold is cost-effective across all baseline prevalences for India, Tanzania, and Haiti. For 65% MDA coverage, the lower threshold is not cost-effective due to additional MDA rounds, although it increases the probability of local elimination. Valuing the benefits of elimination to align with the GPELF goals, we find that a willingness to pay per capita government expenditure of approximately $1000-$4000 for 1% increase in the probability of local elimination would be required to make a lower threshold cost-effective.

CONCLUSIONS

Lower Ag thresholds for stopping MDAs generally mean a higher probability of local elimination, reducing long-term costs and health impacts. However, they may also lead to an increased number of MDA rounds required to reach the lower threshold and, therefore, increased short-term costs. Collectively, our analyses highlight that lower target Ag thresholds have the potential to assist programs in achieving lymphatic filariasis goals.

Distinguishing recrudescence from reinfection in lymphatic filariasis: a genomics-based approach for monitoring worm burden

Background

The Global Program to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis is the largest public health program based on mass drug administration (MDA). Despite decades of MDA, ongoing transmission in some countries remains a challenge. To optimize interventions, it is essential to differentiate between recrudescence (poor drug response and persistent infection) and new infections (ongoing transmission). Since adult filariae are inaccessible in humans, an approach that relies on genotyping the offspring microfilariae (mf) is required.

Methods

We utilized Brugia malayi adults and mf obtained from gerbils with a known pedigree to develop and validate our whole-genome amplification and kinship analysis approach. We then sequenced the genomes of Wuchereria bancrofti mf from infected humans from Côte d'Ivoire (CDI), characterized the population genetic diversity, and made inferences about the adult breeders. We developed a whole-exome capture panel for W. bancrofti to enrich parasite nuclear DNA from lower-quality samples contaminated with host DNA.

Results

We established a robust analysis pipeline using B. malayi adult and mf. We estimated the pre-treatment genetic diversity in W. bancrofti from 269 mf collected from 18 individuals, and further analyzed 1-year post-treatment samples of 74 mf from 4 individuals. By reconstructing and temporally tracking sibling relationships across pre- and post-treatment samples, we differentiated between new and established maternal families, suggesting reinfection in one subject and recrudescence in three subjects. Estimated reproductively active adult females ranged between 3 and 9 in the studied subjects. Hemizygosity of the male X-chromosome allowed for direct inference of haplotypes, facilitating robust maternal parentage inference, even when the genetic diversity was low. Population structure analysis revealed genetically distinct parasites among our CDI samples. Sequence composition and variant analysis of whole-exome libraries showed that the hybridization capture approach can effectively enrich parasite nuclear DNA and identify protein-coding variants with ∼95% genotype concordance rate.

Conclusions

We have generated resources to facilitate development of field-deployable genotyping tools that can estimate worm burdens and monitor parasite populations. These tools are essential for the success of lymphatic filariasis MDA programs. With further expansion of the databases to include geographically diverse samples, we will be able to spatially track parasite movement associated with host/vector migration.

Diethylcarbamazine elicits Ca2+ signals through TRP-2 channels that are potentiated by emodepside in Brugia malayi muscles

Filarial nematode infections are a major health concern in several countries. Lymphatic filariasis is caused by Wuchereria bancrofti and Brugia spp. affecting over 120 million people. Heavy infections can lead to elephantiasis, which has serious effects on individuals' lives. Although current anthelmintics are effective at killing microfilariae in the bloodstream, they have little to no effect against adult parasites found in the lymphatic system. The anthelmintic diethylcarbamazine is one of the central pillars of lymphatic filariasis control. Recent studies have reported that diethylcarbamazine can open transient receptor potential (TRP) channels in the muscles of adult female Brugia malayi, leading to contraction and paralysis. Diethylcarbamazine has synergistic effects in combination with emodepside on Brugia, inhibiting motility: emodepside is an anthelmintic that has effects on filarial nematodes and is under trial for the treatment of river blindness. Here, we have studied the effects of diethylcarbamazine on single Brugia muscle cells by measuring the change in Ca2+ fluorescence in the muscle using Ca2+-imaging techniques. Diethylcarbamazine interacts with the transient receptor potential channel, C classification (TRPC) ortholog receptor TRP-2 to promote Ca2+ entry into the Brugia muscle cells, which can activate Slopoke (SLO-1) Ca2+-activated K+ channels, the putative target of emodepside. A combination of diethylcarbamazine and emodepside leads to a bigger Ca2+ signal than when either compound is applied alone. Our study shows that diethylcarbamazine targets TRP channels to promote Ca2+ entry that is increased by emodepside activation of SLO-1 K+ channels.

Lymphatic filariasis endgame strategies: Using GEOFIL to model mass drug administration and targeted surveillance and treatment strategies in American Samoa

American Samoa underwent seven rounds of mass drug administration (MDA) for lymphatic filariasis (LF) from 2000-2006, but subsequent surveys found evidence of ongoing transmission. American Samoa has since undergone further rounds of MDA in 2018, 2019, and 2021; however, recent surveys indicate that transmission is still ongoing. GEOFIL, a spatially-explicit agent-based LF model, was used to compare the effectiveness of territory-wide triple-drug MDA (3D-MDA) with targeted surveillance and treatment strategies. Both approaches relied on treatment with ivermectin, diethylcarbamazine, and albendazole. We simulated three levels of whole population coverage for 3D-MDA: 65%, 73%, and 85%, while the targeted strategies relied on surveillance in schools, workplaces, and households, followed by targeted treatment. In the household-based strategies, we simulated 1-5 teams travelling village-to-village and offering antigen (Ag) testing to randomly selected households in each village. If an Ag-positive person was identified, treatment was offered to members of all households within 100m-1km of the positive case. All simulated interventions were finished by 2027 and their effectiveness was judged by their 'control probability'-the proportion of simulations in which microfilariae prevalence decreased between 2030 and 2035. Without future intervention, we predict Ag prevalence will rebound. With 3D-MDA, a 90% control probability required an estimated ≥ 4 further rounds with 65% coverage, ≥ 3 rounds with 73% coverage, or ≥ 2 rounds with 85% coverage. While household-based strategies were substantially more testing-intensive than 3D-MDA, they could offer comparable control probabilities with substantially fewer treatments; e.g. three teams aiming to test 50% of households and offering treatment to a 500m radius had approximately the same control probability as three rounds of 73% 3D-MDA, but used < 40% the number of treatments. School- and workplace-based interventions proved ineffective. Regardless of strategy, reducing Ag prevalence below the 1% target threshold recommended by the World Health Organization was a poor indicator of the interruption of LF transmission, highlighting the need to review blanket elimination targets.

Diethylcarbamazine elicits Ca 2+ signals through TRP-2 channels that are potentiated by emodepside in Brugia malayi muscles

Filarial nematode infections are a major health concern in several countries. Lymphatic filariasis is caused by Wucheria bancrofti and Brugia spp. affecting over 120 million people. Heavy infections can lead to elephantiasis having serious effects on individuals’ lives. Although current anthelmintics are effective at killing the microfilariae in the bloodstream, they have little to no effect against adult parasites found in the lymphatic system. The anthelmintic diethylcarbamazine is one of the central pillars of lymphatic filariasis control. Recent studies have reported that diethylcarbamazine can open Transient Receptor Potential (TRP) channels on the muscles of adult female Brugia malayi leading to contraction and paralysis. Diethylcarbamazine has synergistic effects in combination with emodepside on Brugia inhibiting motility: emodepside is an anthelmintic that has effects on filarial nematodes and is under trials for treatment of river blindness. Here we have studied the effects of diethylcarbamazine on single Brugia muscle cells by measuring the change in Ca 2+ fluorescence in the muscle using Ca 2+ -imaging techniques. Diethylcarbamazine interacts with the TRPC orthologue receptor TRP-2 to promote Ca 2+ entry into the Brugia muscle cells which can activate SLO-1 Ca 2+ activated K + channels, the putative target of emodepside. A combination of diethylcarbamazine and emodepside leads to a bigger Ca 2+ signal than when either compound is applied alone. Our study shows that diethylcarbamazine targets TRP channels to promote Ca 2+ entry that is increased by emodepside activation of SLO-1 channels.

[Evaluation of therapeutic coverage of mass treatment campaign against lymphatic filariasis in two health districts in Burkina Faso]

Background & rationale

Burkina Faso has been implementing preventive chemotherapy against lymphatic filariasis since 2001. While 61 health districts (HDs) have stopped mass drug administration (MDA), transmission persists in 9 HDs despite good reported MDA coverage. To validate the reported coverage, an independent post-MDA survey was conducted in Tenkodogo and Fada N'Gourma HDs in September 2018.

Materials & methods

The study population consisted of all persons in the visited communities. The Coverage survey sample builder (CSSB) tool was used to calculate the sample size and to conduct the random selection of households. A total of 30 villages per HD were selected. The investigators were Ministry of Education agents and health workers not involved in MDA. Data were collected on smartphones through the KoBoCollect application regarding age, sex, drug ingestion (ivermectin + albendazole), adverse events, and whether respondents understood MDA guidelines. Stata Version 14 software was used for data analysis.

Results

A total of 3,741 individuals were surveyed, 53.3% were female and the median age was 14 years. Surveyed epidemiological coverage was 74% [95% CI: 72-76.1] in Fada N'Gourma and 79.1% [95% CI: 77.2-80.9] in Tenkodogo, compared to reported coverages of 82.6% and 83% respectively. Village-level coverage ranged from 32.9% to 100% in Fada N'Gourma and from 56.7% to 93.3% in Tenkodogo. In total, 99% of those treated said they had swallowed the drugs in front of the community drug distributor (CDD) and confirmed the use of dose poles. The main reasons for non-treatment were non-visitation of the compound by CDD (54%) and absences during MDA (43%). Results showed that surveyed coverage was lower than reported coverage in both HDs, yet both were above the 65% threshold recommended by WHO. However, major variations of coverage have been noted among villages. Directly observed treatment appeared to have been well respected.

Discussion & conclusion

The main challenges to increase coverage will be the systematic revisiting of households with absentees and the targeting of all households in each village.

Evaluating and mitigating the potential indirect effect of COVID-19 on control programmes for seven neglected tropical diseases: a modelling study

Background

In line with movement restrictions and physical distancing essential for the control of the COVID-19 pandemic, WHO recommended postponement of all neglected tropical disease (NTD) control activities that involve community-based surveys, active case finding, and mass drug administration in April, 2020. Following revised guidance later in 2020, and after interruptions to NTD programmes of varying lengths, NTD programmes gradually restarted in the context of an ongoing pandemic. However, ongoing challenges and service gaps have been reported. This study aimed to evaluate the potential effect of the programmatic interruptions and strategies to mitigate this effect.

Methods

For seven NTDs, namely soil-transmitted helminths, schistosomiasis, lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis, trachoma, visceral leishmaniasis, and human African trypanosomiasis, we used mathematical transmission models to simulate the effect of programme interruptions on the dynamics of each of these diseases in different endemic settings. We also explored the potential benefit of implementing mitigation strategies, primarily in terms of minimising the delays to control targets.

Findings

We show that the effect of the COVID-19-induced interruption in terms of delay to achieving elimination goals might in some cases be much longer than the duration of the interruption. For schistosomiasis, onchocerciasis, trachoma, and visceral leishmaniasis, a mean delay of 2–3 years for a 1-year interruption is predicted in areas of highest prevalence. We also show that these delays can largely be mitigated by measures such as additional mass drug administration or enhanced case-finding.

Interpretation

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought infectious disease control to the forefront of global consciousness. It is essential that the NTDs, so long neglected in terms of research and financial support, are not overlooked, and remain a priority in health service planning and funding.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Medical Research Council, and the UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office.

The relevance of studying insect-nematode interactions for human disease

Vertebrate-parasitic nematodes cause debilitating, chronic infections in millions of people worldwide. The burden of these so-called 'neglected tropical diseases' is often carried by poorer socioeconomic communities in part because research on parasitic nematodes and their vertebrate hosts is challenging and costly. However, complex biological and pathological processes can be modeled in simpler organisms. Here, we consider how insight into the interactions between entomopathogenic nematodes (EPN), their insect hosts and bacterial symbionts may reveal novel treatment targets for parasitic nematode infections. We argue that a combination of approaches that target nematodes, as well as the interaction of pathogens with insect vectors and bacterial symbionts, offer potentially effective, but underexplored opportunities.

How modelling can help steer the course set by the World Health Organization 2021-2030 roadmap on neglected tropical diseases

The World Health Organization recently launched its 2021-2030 roadmap, Ending the Neglect to Attain the Sustainable Development Goals , an updated call to arms to end the suffering caused by neglected tropical diseases. Modelling and quantitative analyses played a significant role in forming these latest goals. In this collection, we discuss the insights, the resulting recommendations and identified challenges of public health modelling for 13 of the target diseases: Chagas disease, dengue, gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT), lymphatic filariasis (LF), onchocerciasis, rabies, scabies, schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminthiases (STH), Taenia solium taeniasis/ cysticercosis, trachoma, visceral leishmaniasis (VL) and yaws. This piece reflects the three cross-cutting themes identified across the collection, regarding the contribution that modelling can make to timelines, programme design, drug development and clinical trials.

Evaluation of the in vitro susceptibility of various filarial nematodes to emodepside

Filariae are vector-borne nematodes responsible for an enormous burden of disease. Human lymphatic filariasis, caused by Wuchereria bancrofti, Brugia malayi, and Brugia timori, and onchocerciasis (caused by Onchocerca volvulus) are neglected parasitic diseases of major public health significance in tropical regions. To date, therapeutic efforts to eliminate human filariasis have been hampered by the lack of a drug with sufficient macrofilaricidal and/or long-term sterilizing effects that is suitable for use in mass drug administration (MDA) programs, particularly in areas co-endemic with Loa loa, the causative agent of loiasis. Emodepside, a semi-synthetic cyclooctadepsipeptide, has been shown to have broad-spectrum efficacy against gastrointestinal nematodes in a variety of mammalian hosts, and has been approved as an active ingredient in dewormers for cats and dogs. This paper evaluates, compares (where appropriate) and summarizes the in vitro effects of emodepside against a range of filarial nematodes at various developmental stages. Emodepside inhibited the motility of all tested stages of filariae frequently used as surrogate species for preclinical investigations (Acanthocheilonema viteae, Brugia pahangi, Litomosoides sigmodontis, Onchocerca gutturosa, and Onchocerca lienalis), human-pathogenic filariae (B. malayi) and filariae of veterinary importance (Dirofilaria immitis) in a concentration-dependent manner. While motility of all filariae was inhibited, both stage- and species-specific differences were observed. However, whether these differences were detected because of stage- and/or species-specific factors or as a consequence of variations in protocol parameters among the participating laboratories (such as purification of the parasites, read-out units, composition of media, incubation conditions, duration of incubation etc.) remains unclear. This study, however, clearly shows that emodepside demonstrates broad-spectrum in vitro activity against filarial nematode species across different genera and can therefore be validated as a promising candidate for the treatment of human filariases, including onchocerciasis and lymphatic filariasis.

How modelling can help steer the course set by the World Health Organization 2021-2030 roadmap on neglected tropical diseases

The World Health Organization recently launched its 2021-2030 roadmap, Ending the Neglect to Attain the Sustainable Development Goals , an updated call to arms to end the suffering caused by neglected tropical diseases. Modelling and quantitative analyses played a significant role in forming these latest goals. In this collection, we discuss the insights, the resulting recommendations and identified challenges of public health modelling for 13 of the target diseases: Chagas disease, dengue, gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT), lymphatic filariasis (LF), onchocerciasis, rabies, scabies, schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminthiases (STH), Taenia solium taeniasis/ cysticercosis, trachoma, visceral leishmaniasis (VL) and yaws. This piece reflects the three cross-cutting themes identified across the collection, regarding the contribution that modelling can make to timelines, programme design, drug development and clinical trials.

How should Indonesia consider its neglected tropical diseases in the COVID-19 era? Hopes and challenges (Review)

During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, some countries, including Indonesia, have faced a double burden with regards to disease control. As Indonesia is a tropical country, it serves as a suitable host for disease vectors and multiple microorganisms of causative agents of disease. In total, five of the neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) should be a consideration in Indonesia during the COVID-19 pandemic, including leprosy, yaws, filariasis, soil-transmitted helminths and schistosomiasis. The present review summarises the preparedness of Indonesia in facing NTDs during the COVID-19 pandemic. Strengthening government leadership will be a valuable factor for combating NTDs in Indonesia. For instance, strong leadership can lead to precise management, by increasing the number of health facilities, engaging in active case identification, conducting health campaigns and instituting new regulations to prevent the stigmatization faced by patients. Preventive medicine in the first level of health facilities can be prioritized and presented to the community via health campaigns, health advocacy and improvement in follow-up after active case surveillance. Government-supported integrated management is also a key component in eliminating NTD. Moreover, healthy lifestyle campaigns that include social distancing, wearing a mask and regularly washing hands should be promoted continuously to reduce the transmission of COVID-19, which is potentially associated with a poor outcome in individuals with NTDs. This review concluded that the Indonesian government should strengthen their efforts toward NTD control using alternative methods, such as involving key citizens in the collaboration of the detection of new cases and introducing mobile health as a means of detecting health problems or following up on patient progress. To reduce the transmission of COVID-19, testing, tracing and treatment must be improved, so that the gap between suspected cases and confirmed cases of COVID-19 can be closed. If the transmission of COVID-19 can be decreased, case detection and efforts toward NTD control can be conducted effectively.

The impact of mass drug administration expansion to low onchocerciasis prevalence settings in case of connected villages

Background

The existence of locations with low but stable onchocerciasis prevalence is not well understood. An often suggested yet poorly investigated explanation is that the infection spills over from neighbouring locations with higher infection densities.

Methodology

We adapted the stochastic individual based model ONCHOSIM to enable the simulation of multiple villages, with separate blackfly (intermediate host) and human populations, which are connected through the regular movement of the villagers and/or the flies. With this model we explore the impact of the type, direction and degree of connectedness, and of the impact of localized or full-area mass drug administration (MDA) over a range of connected village settings.

Principal findings

In settings with annual fly biting rates (ABR) below the threshold needed for stable local transmission, persistence of onchocerciasis prevalence can well be explained by regular human traffic and/or fly movement from locations with higher ABR. Elimination of onchocerciasis will then theoretically be reached by only implementing MDA in the higher prevalence area, although lingering infection in the low prevalence location can trigger resurgence of transmission in the total region when MDA is stopped too soon. Expanding MDA implementation to the lower ABR location can therefore shorten the duration of MDA needed. For example, when prevalence spill-over is due to human traffic, and both locations have about equal populations, then the MDA duration can be shortened by up to three years. If the lower ABR location has twice as many inhabitants, the reduction can even be up to six years, but if spill-over is due to fly movement, the expected reduction is less than a year.

Conclusions/Significance

Although MDA implementation might not always be necessary in locations with stable low onchocerciasis prevalence, in many circumstances it is recommended to accelerate achieving elimination in the wider area.

When infected by onchocerciasis worm parasites, people can eventually develop blindness or severe skin morbidity. Over the past decades, in most places with high onchocerciasis prevalence, annual mass drug administration has become freely available for all inhabitants, regardless of their infection status. This policy has been highly successful in decreasing morbidity. For the next aim, to eliminate onchocerciasis, this intervention is now being expanded to lower prevalence locations. We have adapted an existing simulation model of the spread of onchocerciasis to allow us to model settings where multiple villages are connected, through movement of either humans or blackflies, the intermediate host. By this connection, worms could spill over from a high prevalence village to neighbouring villages with lower prevalence. For such situations, we have examined the impact of implementing treatment only in the high prevalence village, or also in one or two lower prevalence villages. We conclude that for elimination of onchocerciasis transmission, treatment in the lower prevalence villages may not actually be needed, but the total duration of mass drug administration in the entire area can be significantly decreased by expanding treatment to these villages.

Delays in lymphatic filariasis elimination programmes due to COVID-19, and possible mitigation strategies

Background

In view of the current global coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, mass drug administration interventions for neglected tropical diseases, including lymphatic filariasis (LF), have been halted. We used mathematical modelling to estimate the impact of delaying or cancelling treatment rounds and explore possible mitigation strategies.

Methods

We used three established LF transmission models to simulate infection trends in settings with annual treatment rounds and programme delays in 2020 of 6, 12, 18 or 24 months. We then evaluated the impact of various mitigation strategies upon resuming activities.

Results

The delay in achieving the elimination goals is on average similar to the number of years the treatment rounds are missed. Enhanced interventions implemented for as little as 1 y can allow catch-up on the progress lost and, if maintained throughout the programme, can lead to acceleration of up to 3 y.

Conclusions

In general, a short delay in the programme does not cause a major delay in achieving the goals. Impact is strongest in high-endemicity areas. Mitigation strategies such as biannual treatment or increased coverage are key to minimizing the impact of the disruption once the programme resumes and lead to potential acceleration should these enhanced strategies be maintained.

An open label, block randomized, community study of the safety and efficacy of co-administered ivermectin, diethylcarbamazine plus albendazole vs. diethylcarbamazine plus albendazole for lymphatic filariasis in India

Background

Better drug regimens for mass drug administration (MDA) could accelerate the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (LF). This community study was designed to compare the safety and efficacy of MDA with IDA (ivermectin, diethylcarbamazine and albendazole) or DA (diethylcarbamazine and albendazole) in India.

Methodology/Principal findings

This two-armed, open-labelled, block randomised, community study was conducted in LF endemic villages in Yadgir district, Karnataka, India. Consenting participants ≥5 years of age were tested for circulating filarial antigenemia (CFA) and microfilaremia (Mf) before treatment with a single oral dose of IDA or DA. Adverse events (AEs) were monitored actively for two days and passively for five more days. Persons with positive CFA or Mf tests at baseline were retested 12-months post-treatment to assess treatment efficacy.

Baseline CFA and Mf-rates were 26.4% and 6.9% in IDA and 24.5% and 6.4% in DA villages respectively. 4758 and 4160 participants received IDA and DA. Most AEs were mild after both treatments; fewer than 0.1% of participants experienced AEs with severity > grade 1. No serious AEs were observed. Fever, headache and dizziness were the most common AEs. AE rates were slightly higher after IDA than DA (8.3% vs. 6.4%, P<0.01). AEs were more frequent in females and Mf-positives after either treatment, but significantly more frequent after IDA (40.5% vs 20.2%, P < 0.001).

IDA was more effective for clearing Mf than DA (84% vs. 61.8%, P < 0.001). Geometric mean Mf counts per 60μl in retested Mf-positives decreased by 96.4% from 11.8 after IDA and by 90.0% from 9.5 after DA. Neither treatment was effective for clearing CFA.

Conclusions/Significance

IDA had an acceptable safety profile and was more effective for clearing Mf than DA. With adequate compliance and medical support to manage AEs, IDA has the potential to accelerate LF elimination in India.

Trial registration

Clinical Trial Registry of India (CTRI No/2016/10/007399)

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a major neglected tropical disease that is caused by filarial nematode worms. The strategies of the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis, launched in 2000, are mass drug administration (MDA) of antifilarial medications to kill the parasites and reduce transmission and morbidity management and disability prevention for those who are already affected by the disease. Recent clinical trials have shown that a single co-administered dose of ivermectin, diethylcarbamazine and albendazole (IDA) is more effective for clearing microfilariae (Mf) from the blood than the traditional two-drug regimen (DA). That is important, because blood Mf are essential for mosquitoes to transmit the parasite. As part of a large multicenter study, we assessed the safety of IDA and compared the efficacy of IDA and DA for clearing parasites from the blood. We treated almost 9,000 people in Wuchereria bancrofti endemic villages with either IDA or DA. Adverse events (AE) were monitored actively for two days and passively for another five days. AE rates were slightly higher after IDA than DA, but AEs were mild and self-limited. Infected persons, adults and females had higher AE rates in both treatment areas. We retested infected persons one year after treatment. IDA was significantly more effective for clearing Mf and reducing blood Mf counts than DA. Neither treatment was effective for clearing circulating filarial antigenemia. Our large study showed that IDA was well tolerated and more effective than DA. This new treatment has the potential to hasten LF elimination in India and many other countries.

Statistical methods for linking geostatistical maps and transmission models: Application to lymphatic filariasis in East Africa

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Novel methodology for combining geostatistical mapping and transmission modelling.

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Guide the planning of spatial control programmes by identifying affected areas.

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Current intervention strategy will not be sufficient to eliminate LF in most areas.

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Alternative strategies will be required to accelerate LF elimination in East Africa.

Infectious diseases remain one of the major causes of human mortality and suffering. Mathematical models have been established as an important tool for capturing the features that drive the spread of the disease, predicting the progression of an epidemic and hence guiding the development of strategies to control it. Another important area of epidemiological interest is the development of geostatistical methods for the analysis of data from spatially referenced prevalence surveys. Maps of prevalence are useful, not only for enabling a more precise disease risk stratification, but also for guiding the planning of more reliable spatial control programmes by identifying affected areas. Despite the methodological advances that have been made in each area independently, efforts to link transmission models and geostatistical maps have been limited. Motivated by this fact, we developed a Bayesian approach that combines fine-scale geostatistical maps of disease prevalence with transmission models to provide quantitative, spatially-explicit projections of the current and future impact of control programs against a disease. These estimates can then be used at a local level to identify the effectiveness of suggested intervention schemes and allow investigation of alternative strategies. The methodology has been applied to lymphatic filariasis in East Africa to provide estimates of the impact of different intervention strategies against the disease.

Efficacy and Safety of a Single Dose of Ivermectin, Diethylcarbamazine, and Albendazole for Treatment of Lymphatic Filariasis in Côte d'Ivoire: An Open-label Randomized Controlled Trial

BACKGROUND

Improved drug regimens are needed to accelerate elimination of lymphatic filariasis in Africa. This study determined whether a single co-administered dose of ivermectin plus diethylcarbamazine plus albendazole [IDA] is noninferior to standard 3 annual doses of ivermectin plus albendazole (IA) used in many LF-endemic areas of Africa.

METHODS

Treatment-naive adults with Wuchereria bancrofti microfilaremia in Côte d'Ivoire were randomized to receive a single dose of IDA (n = 43) or 3 annual doses of IA (n = 52) in an open-label, single-blinded trial. The primary endpoint was the proportion of participants who were microfilaria (Mf) negative at 36 months. Secondary endpoints were Mf clearance at 6, 12, and 24 months; inactivation of adult worm nests; and safety.

RESULTS

At 36 months posttreatment with IDA, 18/33 (55%; 95% CI, 38-72%) cleared Mf versus 33/42 (79%; 67-91%) with IA (P = .045). At 6 and 12 months IDA was superior to IA in clearing Mf (89% [77-99%] and 71% [56-85%]), respectively, versus 34% (20-48%) and 26% (14-42%) (P < .001). IDA was equivalent to IA at 24 months (61% [45-77%] vs 54% [38-72%]; P = .53). IDA was superior to IA for inactivating adult worms at all time points. Both treatments were well tolerated, and there were no serious adverse events.

CONCLUSIONS

A single dose of IDA was superior to 2 doses of IA in reducing the overall Mf burden by 24 months. Reinfection may have contributed to the lack of sustained clearance of Mf with IDA.

CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION

NCT02974049.

Predicted Impact of COVID-19 on Neglected Tropical Disease Programs and the Opportunity for Innovation

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, many key neglected tropical disease (NTD) activities have been postponed. This hindrance comes at a time when the NTDs are progressing towards their ambitious goals for 2030. Mathematical modelling on several NTDs, namely gambiense sleeping sickness, lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis, schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminthiases (STH), trachoma, and visceral leishmaniasis, shows that the impact of this disruption will vary across the diseases. Programs face a risk of resurgence, which will be fastest in high-transmission areas. Furthermore, of the mass drug administration diseases, schistosomiasis, STH, and trachoma are likely to encounter faster resurgence. The case-finding diseases (gambiense sleeping sickness and visceral leishmaniasis) are likely to have fewer cases being detected but may face an increasing underlying rate of new infections. However, once programs are able to resume, there are ways to mitigate the impact and accelerate progress towards the 2030 goals.

Predicting lymphatic filariasis elimination in data-limited settings: A reconstructive computational framework for combining data generation and model discovery

Although there is increasing importance placed on the use of mathematical models for the effective design and management of long-term parasite elimination, it is becoming clear that transmission models are most useful when they reflect the processes pertaining to local infection dynamics as opposed to generalized dynamics. Such localized models must also be developed even when the data required for characterizing local transmission processes are limited or incomplete, as is often the case for neglected tropical diseases, including the disease system studied in this work, viz. lymphatic filariasis (LF). Here, we draw on progress made in the field of computational knowledge discovery to present a reconstructive simulation framework that addresses these challenges by facilitating the discovery of both data and models concurrently in areas where we have insufficient observational data. Using available data from eight sites from Nigeria and elsewhere, we demonstrate that our data-model discovery system is able to estimate local transmission models and missing pre-control infection information using generalized knowledge of filarial transmission dynamics, monitoring survey data, and details of historical interventions. Forecasts of the impacts of interventions carried out in each site made by the models estimated using the reconstructed baseline data matched temporal infection observations and provided useful information regarding when transmission interruption is likely to have occurred. Assessments of elimination and resurgence probabilities based on the models also suggest a protective effect of vector control against the reemergence of LF transmission after stopping drug treatments. The reconstructive computational framework for model and data discovery developed here highlights how coupling models with available data can generate new knowledge about complex, data-limited systems, and support the effective management of disease programs in the face of critical data gaps.

As modelling becomes commonly used in the design and evaluation of parasite elimination programs, the need for well-defined models and datasets describing the nature of transmission processes in local settings is becoming pronounced. For many neglected tropical diseases, however, data for site-specific model identification are typically sparse or incomplete. In this study, we present a new data-model computational discovery system that couples data-assimilation methods based on existing monitoring survey data with model-generated data about baseline conditions to discover the local transmission models required for simulating the impacts of interventions in typical endemic locations for the macroparasitic disease, lymphatic filariasis (LF). Using data from eight study sites in Nigeria and elsewhere, we show that our reconstructive computational framework is able to combine information contained within partially-available site-specific monitoring data with knowledge of parasite transmission dynamics embedded in process-based models to generate the missing data required for inducing reliable locally applicable LF models. We also show that the models so discovered are able to generate the intervention forecasts required for supporting management-relevant decisions in parasite elimination.

Elimination or Resurgence: Modelling Lymphatic Filariasis After Reaching the 1% Microfilaremia Prevalence Threshold

The low prevalence levels associated with lymphatic filariasis elimination pose a challenge for effective disease surveillance. As more countries achieve the World Health Organization criteria for halting mass treatment and move on to surveillance, there is increasing reliance on the utility of transmission assessment surveys (TAS) to measure success. However, the long-term disease outcomes after passing TAS are largely untested. Using 3 well-established mathematical models, we show that low-level prevalence can be maintained for a long period after halting mass treatment and that true elimination (0% prevalence) is usually slow to achieve. The risk of resurgence after achieving current targets is low and is hard to predict using just current prevalence. Although resurgence is often quick (<5 years), it can still occur outside of the currently recommended postintervention surveillance period of 4-6 years. Our results highlight the need for ongoing and enhanced postintervention monitoring, beyond the scope of TAS, to ensure sustained success.

The roadmap towards elimination of lymphatic filariasis by 2030: insights from quantitative and mathematical modelling

The Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis was launched in 2000 to eliminate lymphatic filariasis (LF) as a public health problem by 1) interrupting transmission through mass drug administration (MDA) and 2) offering basic care to those suffering from lymphoedema or hydrocele due to the infection. Although impressive progress has been made, the initial target year of 2020 will not be met everywhere. The World Health Organization recently proposed 2030 as the new target year for elimination of lymphatic filariasis (LF) as a public health problem. In this letter, LF modelers of the Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs) Modelling Consortium reflect on the proposed targets for 2030 from a quantitative perspective. While elimination as a public health problem seems technically and operationally feasible, it is uncertain whether this will eventually also lead to complete elimination of transmission. The risk of resurgence needs to be mitigated by strong surveillance after stopping interventions and sometimes perhaps additional interventions.

Elimination of lymphatic filariasis in South East Asia

Expanding treatment options alongside ensuring high coverage of mass drug administration can accelerate progress in elimination of lymphatic filariasis, say Sabine Specht and colleagues

Counting Down the 2020 Goals for 9 Neglected Tropical Diseases: What Have We Learned From Quantitative Analysis and Transmission Modeling?

The control of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) has received huge investment in recent years, leading to large reductions in morbidity. In 2012, the World Health Organization set ambitious targets for eliminating many of these diseases as a public health problem by 2020, an aspiration that was supported by donations of treatments, intervention materials, and funding committed by a broad partnership of stakeholders in the London Declaration on NTDs. Alongside these efforts, there has been an increasing role for quantitative analysis and modeling to support the achievement of these goals through evaluation of the likely impact of interventions, the factors that could undermine these achievements, and the role of new diagnostics and treatments in reducing transmission. In this special issue, we aim to summarize those insights in an accessible way. This article acts as an introduction to the special issue, outlining key concepts in NTDs and insights from modeling as we approach 2020.