Cancer cure for 32 cancer types: results from the EUROCARE-5 study

Estimating cure and risk of death from other causes of adolescent and young adult cancer patients in Europe

BACKGROUND

Adolescents and young adults (AYAs), aged 15-39, face unique challenges as cancer survivors, including long-term health issues treatment. This study applies a novel approach to estimate the relative risk (RR) of mortality from non-cancer causes in AYA cancer patients compared to the general population and the cure fraction (CF) for AYA patients.

METHODS

Conventional and new mixture cure models with various parametric survival functions were applied to the most common AYA cancers. EUROCARE-6 cases diagnosed between 1998 and 2002, with follow-up to 2014, were selected. Qualitative and quantitative criteria were used to select the optimal model. CFs and RRs were estimated by cancer type, age group, and sex.

FINDINGS

RRs> 1 were found in both sexes for leukaemia, chronic myeloid leukaemia, lymphoma, central nervous system (CNS) tumours, and skin melanoma, and for testicular germ cell, breast and cervix cancers, with RR generally higher in younger patients and decreasing with age. For acute myeloid leukaemia, colorectal cancer, bone sarcoma for both sexes and soft tissue sarcoma, acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL), and ovary germ cell in females, there was no indication for extra risk. Higher CFs were found in adolescents compared to older AYAs (30-39 years), especially for ALL, CNS tumours in males, and colorectal cancer in females.

CONCLUSION

Further studies are needed to understand why RRs are elevated in AYA patients, to investigate comorbidities and side effects of treatment. Accurate estimation of cancer mortality and CF is vital for resource allocation, tailored follow-up care, and imporving patient quality of life.

Prevalence and indicators of cure of Italian women with vulvar squamous cell carcinoma: A population-based study

OBJECTIVE

Five-year net survival and conditional survival from vulvar squamous cell carcinoma (VSCC) patients in Italy have shown no progress during the past three decades. This study aims to estimate the complete prevalence and multiple indicators of cure.

METHODS

Observed prevalence was estimated using 31 Italian cancer registries covering 47 % of Italian women. A subset of 22 cancer registries was used to estimate model-based long-term survival and indicators of cure, i.e., complete prevalence, cure fraction (CF), time to cure (TTC), proportion of 'already cured' patients, and cure prevalence.

RESULTS

In 2018, VSCC patients alive in Italy (complete prevalence) were 6620 or 22 per 100,000 women. The cure fraction (the proportion of newly diagnosed patients who will not die of VSCC) did not change between 2000 and 2010 both for all patients (32 %) and in each age group. The time to cure (5-year conditional net survival >95 %) was 11 years for patients aged ≥44 years, but excess mortality remained for >15 years in the other age groups. This led to a negligible (5 %) proportion of 'already cured' patients (living longer than time to cure). The proportion of patients alive <2 years (21 %) was the same as that of patients surviving ≥15 years. The cure prevalence (patients who will not die of VSCC) was 64 %. A considerable proportion of patients will not be cured even among those who survived ≥5 years.

CONCLUSION

There is an urgent need to reshape the current vulvar care model in Italy.

Incidence and temporal patterns of true recurrences and second primaries in women with breast cancer: A 10-year competing risk-adjusted analysis

INTRODUCTION

We report a population-based, competing risk-adjusted analysis of the risk and timing of true recurrences and second primaries in women with breast cancer (BC), that are still ill-defined.

METHODS

We performed a manual review of medical charts of 1988 BC patients from a cancer registry in northern Italy (2000-2013). The occurrence and timing of true recurrences (TRs, including local, regional and distant recurrences) and second BCs (SBCs, including ipsilateral and contralateral SBC) during 10 years of follow-up were evaluated. The prognostic factors for TRs and SBCs were identified using the Fine and Gray model.

RESULTS

The cumulative incidence was 13.7 % (95 % confidence interval (CI), 12.2-15.3 %) for TRs and 4.6 % (95 % CI, 3.7-5.7 %) for SBCs. The median time to detection varied between 3.4 (TRs) and 5.1 (SBCs) years. The risk of TRs had two peaks, one between the 2nd and the 3rd year of follow-up and another between the 7th and the 8th year. The subhazard of SBCs fluctuated for five years, had a drop between the 6th and the 7th year and a marked peak between the 8th and the 9th year. Prognostic factors for TRs (tumour stage and grade, lymph node status and residual disease) and SBCs (patient age and -inverse association- hormone therapy) were different. In the 9th-10th year of follow-up, the excess incidence of total BC episodes as compared with the expected incidence of BC was no longer significant (standardised incidence ratio, 1.15; 95 % CI, 0.86-1.53).

CONCLUSIONS

The multifaceted results of this study warrant further research into the risk and timing of all types of BC recurrence.

Cure models, survival probabilities, and solid organ transplantation for patients with colorectal cancer

A previous cancer diagnosis can preclude patients from consideration for solid organ transplantation. Statistical models may improve candidate selection. We fitted statistical cure models and estimated 5-year cancer-specific survival (5yCSS) for colorectal cancer patients in the United States using registry data. The median cure probability at cancer diagnosis for patients in the general population was 0.67. Among 956 colorectal cancer patients who underwent solid organ transplantation, the median time since diagnosis was 6.3 years and the median 5yCSS at transplantation was 0.96. Patients with a 5yCSS below 0.90 had increased posttransplant cancer-specific mortality (hazard ratio 3.31, 95% CI 1.52-7.21). Compared with recently published guidelines, our models suggested shorter wait times for some groups of colorectal cancer patients (eg, stage IIA cancers) and longer wait times for others (stages IIB, IIIB, IIIC, IV). In conclusion, colorectal cancer patients undergoing solid organ transplantation had excellent prognoses, reflecting selection incorporating existing guidelines and clinical judgment. Nonetheless, 5yCSS probabilities estimated from cure models offer additional prognostic information for patients considered for transplantation and identify situations where current guidelines might be revised. We developed a web-based tool for clinicians to calculate 5yCSS probabilities for use in transplant evaluation for individual colorectal cancer patients (https://dceg.cancer.gov/tools/risk-assessment/calculator-of-colorectal-cancer-survival-probability).

Evolving trends in oral cancer burden in Europe: a systematic review

Introduction

Oral cavity cancer (OCC), primarily oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC), is a growing concern in Europe, particularly among younger populations. Preventable lifestyle factors and social determinants of health contribute significantly to the disease burden. Limited access to healthcare and delayed diagnoses further complicate treatment and reduce survival rates.

Methods

This systematic literature review adhered to PRISMA guidelines to explore trends in OSCC epidemiology, etiology, diagnosis, treatment, and survival across Europe. A comprehensive search strategy using PubMed, GLOBOCAN data, and the EUROCARE-5 study identified relevant articles focusing on human populations in Europe with a primary interest in OSCC epidemiology. Only peer-reviewed publications in English with full-text access were included.

Results

This study investigated the burden of OSCC across Europe, revealing variations in incidence, mortality, and prognosis. Eastern and Central Europe displayed the highest burden. Males exhibited a significantly higher risk compared to females. Age-related disparities existed in life expectancy and time to achieve favorable outcomes. HPV emerged as a growing risk factor for oropharyngeal cancer. Public health strategies should target modifiable risk factors and improve early detection.

Conclusion

This review reveals concerning disparities in European OSCC. Region, sex, and age all influence burden and prognosis. Future research should focus on controlling risk factors and personalized medicine to optimize treatment. This will lead to a Europe with reduced OSCC incidence and demonstrably better patient outcomes.

The care pathway experienced by cutaneous melanoma survivors: A qualitative longitudinal study

BACKGROUND

The optimal management of cutaneous melanoma is based on implementing a multidisciplinary tumour board. No studies report cutaneous melanoma patients' perspective along the whole care pathway, taking us through their care experience longitudinally.

AIMS

To explore the patients' perspective on the cutaneous melanoma care journey in a skin cancers' tertiary referral centre.

METHODS

A longitudinal qualitative study was designed, using semi-structured interviews. Cutaneous melanoma patients were interviewed three times (T0, after diagnosis; T1, after the first postoperative visit; and T2, at the follow-up). Data were analysed using the inductive framework method.

RESULTS

Fifteen patients agreed to participate, and 8 completed all three interviews. We generated three themes describing how patients experienced the care pathway: (i) the evolving need for support during the care pathway, (ii) the development of emotions and expectations for the journey's end, (iii) the changing perceptions of hospital services, the care pathway itself, and the Skin Cancer Unit. We have emphasised the shifts in the experience of receiving assistance from the diagnosis to the follow-up stage. The more the care process progressed, the stronger the need for a relationship with healthcare professionals. The emotional impact of becoming a cancer survivor exacerbated the experience and reflected on patients' perceptions of the care pathway.

CONCLUSIONS

Adopting a relational approach to reassuring melanoma patients is essential. Our participants expressed needing a medical reference figure as a favourable element. When this is unfeasible, inter-professional training is desirable to help professionals cooperate in a multidisciplinary group and make this collaboration visible to patients.

General Population Mortality Adjustment in Survival Extrapolation of Cancer Trials: Exploring Plausibility and Implications for Cost-Effectiveness Analyses in HER2-Positive Breast Cancer in Sweden

BACKGROUND

In economic evaluations of novel therapies, assessing lifetime effects based on trial data often necessitates survival extrapolation, with the choice of model affecting outcomes. The aim of this study was to assess accuracy and variability between alternative approaches to survival extrapolation.

METHODS

Data on HER2-positive breast cancer patients from the Swedish National Breast Cancer Register were used to fit standard parametric distribution (SPD) models and excess hazard (EH) models adjusting the survival projections based on general population mortality (GPM). Models were fitted using 6-y data for stage I and II, 4-y data for stage III, and 2-y data for stage IV cancer reflecting an early data cutoff while maintaining sufficient events for comparison of model estimates with actual long-term outcomes. We compared model projections of 15-y survival and restricted mean survival time (RMST) to 15-y registry data and explored the variability between models in extrapolations of long-term survival.

RESULTS

Among 11,224 patients compared with the observed registry 15-y RMST estimates across the disease stages, EH cure models provided the most accurate estimates in patients with stage I to III cancer, whereas EH models without cure most closely matched survival in patients with stage IV cancer, in which cure assumption was less plausible. The Akaike information criterion-averaged model projections varied as follows: -8.2% to +5.3% for SPD models, -4.9% to +5.2% for the EH model without a cure assumption, and -19.3% to -0.2% for the EH model with a cure assumption. EH models significantly reduced between-model variance in the predicted RMSTs over a 50-y time horizon compared with SPD models.

CONCLUSIONS

EH models may be considered as alternatives to SPD models to produce more accurate and plausible survival extrapolation that accounts for general population mortality.

HIGHLIGHTS

Excess hazard (EH) methods have been suggested as an approach to incorporate background mortality rates in economic evaluation using survival extrapolation.We highlight that EH models with or without a cure assumption can produce more accurate survival projections and significantly reduce between-model variability in comparison with standard parametric distribution models across cancer stages.EH models may be a preferred modeling method to reduce model uncertainty in health economic modeling since models that would otherwise have produced implausible extrapolations are constrained by the EH framework.Reduced uncertainty in economic evaluations will enhance the application of evidence-based health care decision making.

Indicators of cure for women living after uterine and ovarian cancers: a population-based study

This study aims to estimate long-term survival, cancer prevalence, and several cure indicators for Italian women with gynecological cancers. Thirty-one cancer registries, representing 47% of the Italian female population, were included. Mixture cure models were used to estimate net survival, cure fraction, time to cure (when 5-year conditional net survival becomes > 95%), cure prevalence (women who will not die of cancer), and already cured (living longer than time to cure). In 2018, 0.4% (121 704) of Italian women were alive after diagnosis of corpus uteri cancer, 0.2% (52 551) after cervical cancer, and 0.2% (52 153) after ovarian cancer. More than 90% of patients with uterine cancers and 83% with ovarian cancer will not die from their neoplasm (cure prevalence). Women with gynecological cancers have a residual excess risk of death <5% at 5 years after diagnosis. The cure fraction was 69% for corpus uteri, 32% for ovarian, and 58% for cervical cancer patients. Time to cure was ≤10 years for women with gynecological cancers aged <55 years; 74% of patients with cervical cancer, 63% with corpus uteri cancer, and 55% with ovarian cancer were already cured. These results can contribute to improving follow-up programs for women with gynecological cancers and supporting efforts against discrimination of already cured ones. This article is part of a Special Collection on Gynecological Cancers.

Cure indicators and prevalence by stage at diagnosis for breast and colorectal cancer patients: A population-based study in Italy

People alive many years after breast (BC) or colorectal cancer (CRC) diagnoses are increasing. This paper aimed to estimate the indicators of cancer cure and complete prevalence for Italian patients with BC and CRC by stage and age. A total of 31 Italian Cancer Registries (47% of the population) data until 2017 were included. Mixture cure models allowed estimation of net survival (NS); cure fraction (CF); time to cure (TTC, 5-year conditional NS >95%); cure prevalence (who will not die of cancer); and already cured (prevalent patients living longer than TTC). 2.6% of all Italian women (806,410) were alive in 2018 after BC and 88% will not die of BC. For those diagnosed in 2010, CF was 73%, 99% when diagnosed at stage I, 81% at stage II, and 36% at stages III-IV. For all stages combined, TTC was >10 years under 45 and over 65 years and for women with advanced stages, but ≤1 year for all BC patients at stage I. The proportion of already cured prevalent BC women was 75% (94% at stage I). Prevalent CRC cases were 422,407 (0.7% of the Italian population), 90% will not die of CRC. For CRC patients, CF was 56%, 92% at stage I, 71% at stage II, and 35% at stages III-IV. TTC was ≤10 years for all age groups and stages. Already cured were 59% of all prevalent CRC patients (93% at stage I). Cancer cure indicators by stage may contribute to appropriate follow-up in the years after diagnosis, thus avoiding patients' discrimination.

Patients with cancer who will be cured and projections of complete prevalence in Italy from 2018 to 2030

BACKGROUND

The number and projections of cancer survivors are necessary to meet the healthcare needs of patients, while data on cure prevalence, that is, the percentage of patients who will not die of cancer by time since diagnosis, are lacking.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Data from Italian cancer registries (duration of registration ranged from 9 to 40 years, with a median of 22 years) covering 47% of the population were used to calculate the limited-duration prevalence, the complete prevalence in 2018, projections to 2030, and cure prevalence, by cancer type, sex, age, and time since diagnosis.

RESULTS

A total of 3 347 809 people were alive in Italy in 2018 after a cancer diagnosis, corresponding to 5.6% of the resident population. They will increase by 1.5% per year to 4 012 376 in 2030, corresponding to 6.9% of the resident population, 7.6% of women and ∼22% after age 75 years. In 2030, more than one-half of all prevalent cases (2 million) will have been diagnosed by ≥10 years. Those with breast (1.05 million), prostate (0.56 million), or colorectal cancers (0.47 million) will be 52% of all prevalent patients. Cure prevalence was 86% for all patients alive in 2018 (87% for patients with breast cancer and 99% for patients with thyroid or testicular cancer), increasing with time since diagnosis to 93% for patients alive after 5 years and 96% after 10 years. Among patients who survived at least 5 years, the excess risk of death (1 - cure prevalence) was <5% for patients with most cancer types except for those with cancers of the breast (8.3%), lung (11.1%), kidney (13.2%), and bladder (15.5%).

CONCLUSIONS

Study findings encourage the implementation of evidence-based policies aimed at improving long-term clinical follow-up and rehabilitation of people living after cancer diagnosis throughout the course of the disease. Updated estimates of complete prevalence are important to enhance data-driven cancer control planning.

Long-term survival for lymphoid neoplasms and national health expenditure (EUROCARE-6): a retrospective, population-based study

BACKGROUND

Management of lymphoid malignancies requires substantial health system resources. Total national health expenditure might influence population-based lymphoid malignancy survival. We studied the long-term survival of patients with 12 lymphoid malignancy types and examined whether different levels of national health expenditure might explain differences in lymphoid malignancy prognosis between European countries and regions.

METHODS

For this observational, retrospective, population-based study, we analysed the EUROCARE-6 dataset of patients aged 15 or older diagnosed between 2001 and 2013 with one of 12 lymphoid malignancies defined according to International Classification of Disease for Oncology (third edition) and WHO classification, and followed up to 2014 (Jan 1, 2001-Dec 31, 2014). Countries were classified according to their mean total national health expenditure quartile in 2001-13. For each lymphoid malignancy, 5-year and 10-year age-standardised relative survival (ASRS) was calculated using the period approach. Generalised linear models indicated the effects of age at diagnosis, gender, and total national health expenditure on the relative excess risk of death (RER).

FINDINGS

82 cancer registries (61 regional and 21 national) from 27 European countries provided data eligible for 10-year survival estimates comprising 890 730 lymphoid malignancy cases diagnosed in 2001-13. Median follow-up time was 13 years (IQR 13-14). Of the 12 lymphoid malignancies, the 10-year ASRS in Europe was highest for hairy cell leukaemia (82·6% [95% CI 78·9-86·5) and Hodgkin lymphoma (79·3% [78·6-79·9]) and lowest for plasma cell neoplasms (29·5% [28·9-30·0]). RER increased with age at diagnosis, particularly from 55-64 years to 75 years or older, for all lymphoid malignancies. Women had higher ASRS than men for all lymphoid malignancies, except for precursor B, T, or natural killer cell, or not-otherwise specified lymphoblastic lymphoma or leukaemia. 10-year ASRS for each lymphoid malignancy was higher (and the RER lower) in countries in the highest national health expenditure quartile than in countries in the lowest quartile, with a decreasing pattern through quartiles for many lymphoid malignancies. 10-year ASRS for non-Hodgkin lymphoma, the most representative class for lymphoid malignancies based on the number of incident cases, was 59·3% (95% CI 58·7-60·0) in the first quartile, 57·6% (55·2-58·7) in the second quartile, 55·4% (54·3-56·5) in the third quartile, and 44·7% (43·6-45·8) in the fourth quartile; with reference to the European mean, the RER was 0·80 (95% CI 0·79-0·82) in the first, 0·91 (0·90-0·93) in the second, 0·94 (0·92-0·96) in the third, and 1·45 (1·42-1·48) in the fourth quartiles.

INTERPRETATION

Total national health expenditure is associated with geographical inequalities in lymphoid malignancy prognosis. Policy decisions on allocating economic resources and implementing evidence-based models of care are needed to reduce these differences.

FUNDING

Italian Ministry of Health, European Commission, Estonian Research Council.

Gold nanoparticles-mediated photothermal and photodynamic therapies for cancer

Cancer remains one of the major causes of death globally, with one out of every six deaths attributed to the disease. The impact of cancer is felt on psychological, physical, and financial levels, affecting individuals, communities, and healthcare institutions. Conventional cancer treatments have many challenges and inadequacies. Nanomedicine, however, presents a promising solution by not only overcoming these problems but also offering the advantage of combined therapy for treatment-resistant cancers. Nanoparticles specifically engineered for use in nanomedicine can be efficiently targeted to cancer cells through a combination of active and passive techniques, leading to superior tumor-specific accumulation, enhanced drug availability, and reduced systemic toxicity. Among various nanoparticle formulations designed for cancer treatment, gold nanoparticles have gained prominence in the field of nanomedicine due to their photothermal, photodynamic, and immunologic effects without the need for photosensitizers or immunotherapeutic agents. To date, there is no comprehensive literature review that focuses on the photothermal, photodynamic, and immunologic effects of gold nanoparticles. In this review, significant attention has been devoted to examining the parameters pertaining to the structure of gold nanoparticles and laser characteristics, which play a crucial role in influencing the efficacy of photothermal therapy (PTT) and photodynamic therapy (PDT). Moreover, this article provides insights into the success of PTT and PDT mediated by gold nanoparticles in primary cancer treatment, as well as the immunological effects of PTT and PDT on metastasis and recurrence, providing a promising strategy for cancer therapy. In summary, gold nanoparticles, with their unique properties, have the potential for clinical application in various cancer therapies, including the treatment of primary cancer, recurrence and metastasis.

Complete cancer prevalence in Europe in 2020 by disease duration and country (EUROCARE-6): a population-based study

BACKGROUND

Cancer survivors-people living with and beyond cancer-are a growing population with different health needs depending on prognosis and time since diagnosis. Despite being increasingly necessary, complete information on cancer prevalence is not systematically available in all European countries. We aimed to fill this gap by analysing population-based cancer registry data from the EUROCARE-6 study.

METHODS

In this population-based study, using incidence and follow-up data up to Jan 1, 2013, from 61 cancer registries, complete and limited-duration prevalence by cancer type, sex, and age were estimated for 29 European countries and the 27 countries in the EU (EU27; represented by 22 member states that contributed registry data) using the completeness index method. We focused on 32 malignant cancers defined according to the third edition of the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology, and only the first primary tumour was considered when estimating the prevalence. Prevalence measures are expressed in terms of absolute number of prevalent cases, crude prevalence proportion (reported as percentage or cases per 100 000 resident people), and age-standardised prevalence proportion based on the European Standard Population 2013. We made projections of cancer prevalence proportions up to Jan 1, 2020, using linear regression.

FINDINGS

In 2020, 23 711 thousand (95% CI 23 565-23 857) people (5·0% of the population) were estimated to be alive after a cancer diagnosis in Europe, and 22 347 thousand (95% CI 22 210-22 483) in EU27. Cancer survivors were more frequently female (12 818 thousand [95% CI 12 720-12 917]) than male (10 892 thousand [10 785-11 000]). The five leading tumours in female survivors were breast cancer, colorectal cancer, corpus uterine cancer, skin melanoma, and thyroid cancer (crude prevalence proportion from 2270 [95%CI 2248-2292] per 100 000 to 301 [297-305] per 100 000). Prostate cancer, colorectal cancer, urinary bladder cancer, skin melanoma, and kidney cancer were the most common tumours in male survivors (from 1714 [95% CI 1686-1741] per 100 000 to 255 [249-260] per 100 000). The differences in prevalence between countries were large (from 2 to 10 times depending on cancer type), in line with the demographic structure, incidence, and survival patterns. Between 2010 and 2020, the number of prevalent cases increased by 3·5% per year (41% overall), partly due to an ageing population. In 2020, 14 850 thousand (95% CI 14 681-15 018) people were estimated to be alive more than 5 years after diagnosis and 9099 thousand (8909-9288) people were estimated to be alive more than 10 years after diagnosis, representing an increasing proportion of the cancer survivor population.

INTERPRETATION

Our findings are useful at the country level in Europe to support evidence-based policies to improve the quality of life, care, and rehabilitation of patients with cancer throughout the disease pathway. Future work includes estimating time to cure by stage at diagnosis in prevalent cases.

FUNDING

European Commission.

Potential for Cure by Stage across the Cancer Spectrum in the United States

BACKGROUND

Cure fraction-the proportion of persons considered cured of cancer after long-term follow-up-reflects the total impact of cancer control strategies, including screening, without lead-time bias. Previous studies have not reported stage-stratified cure fraction across the spectrum of cancer types.

METHODS

Using a mixture cure model, we estimated cure fraction across stages for 21 cancer types and additional subtypes. Cause-specific survival for 2.4 million incident cancers came from 17 US Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registries for adults 40 to 84 years at diagnosis in 2006 to 2015, followed through 2020.

RESULTS

Across cancer types, a substantial cure fraction was evident at early stages, followed by either a sharp drop from stages III to IV or a steady decline from stages I to IV. For example, estimated cure fractions for colorectal cancer at stages I, II, III, and IV were 62% (95% confidence interval: 59%-66%), 61% (58%-65%), 58% (57%-59%), and 7% (7%-7%), respectively. Corresponding estimates for gallbladder cancer were 50% (46%-54%), 24% (22%-27%), 22% (19%-25%), and 2% (2%-3%). Differences in 5-year cause-specific survival between early-stage and stage IV cancers were highly correlated with between-stage differences in cure fraction, indicating that survival gaps by stage are persistent and not due to lead-time bias.

CONCLUSIONS

A considerable fraction of cancer is amenable to cure at early stages, but not after metastasis.

IMPACT

These results emphasize the potential for early detection of numerous cancers, including those with no current screening modalities, to reduce cancer death.

A new method of estimating prevalence of childhood cancer survivors (POCCS): example of the 20-year prevalence in The Netherlands

BACKGROUND

Estimating the number of childhood cancer survivors is crucial for cancer control, including clinical guidelines. To compare estimates across countries despite data sharing restrictions, we propose a new method of computing limited-duration prevalence of childhood cancer survivors (POCCS) using aggregated data.

METHODS

We developed a Markov model that simulates, for each calendar year and birth cohort in a population, the proportion of individuals in the following health states: healthy, newly diagnosed with cancer, surviving with cancer, and deceased. Transitions between health states were informed using annual sex- and age-specific incidence rates, conditional 1-year net survival probabilities from the Netherlands Cancer Registry (1989-2011), and annual mortality probability by sex and age group for The Netherlands from the Human Mortality Database. Applying a Markov model, we computed 20-year prevalence of childhood cancer survivors. The resulting POCCS estimates, stratified by sex, were compared with SEER*Stat estimates derived from individual cancer records from the same registry.

RESULTS

In 2011, POCCS predicted 654 males [95% confidence interval (95% CI): 637-672] and 539 females (95% CI: 523-555) per million persons living in The Netherlands after childhood cancer diagnosed within the previous 20 years. Using SEER*Stat, the 20-year prevalence was 665 males (95% CI: 647-683) and 544 females (95% CI: 529-560) per million persons on 1 July 2011.

CONCLUSIONS

Using the POCCS model and aggregated cancer data, our estimates of childhood cancer survivors limited-duration prevalence were consistent with those computed by a standard method requiring individual cancer records. The POCCS method provides relevant information for planning follow-up and care for childhood cancer survivors.

Obesity associated pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma: Therapeutic challenges

Obesity is a prominent health issue worldwide and directly impacts pancreatic health, with obese individuals exhibiting a significant risk for increasing pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). Several factors potentially explain the increased risk for the development of PDAC, including obesity-induced chronic inflammation within and outside of the pancreas, development of insulin resistance and metabolic dysfunction, promotion of immune suppression within the pancreas during inflammation, pre- and malignant stages, variations in hormones levels (adiponectin, ghrelin, and leptin) produced from the adipose tissue, and acquisition of somatic mutations in tumor once- and suppressor proteins critical for pancreatic tumorigenesis. In this manuscript, we will explore the broad impact of these obesity-induced risk factors on the development and progression of PDAC, focusing on changes within the tumor microenvironment (TME) as they pertain to prevention, current therapeutic strategies, and future directions for targeting obesity management as they relate to the prevention of pancreatic tumorigenesis.

Pathological Nodal and Vascular Involvement Significantly Impacts the Recurrence Risk in Different Time Frames in Patients With Resectable and Borderline Resectable Pancreatic Cancer: Long-term Conditional Recurrence-free Survival Analysis in the Setting of a Neoadjuvant Treatment Strategy

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the long-term dynamics of recurrence risk and the significance of prognostic variables using conditional recurrence-free survival (C-RFS) analysis in neoadjuvant treatment (NAT) for resectable (R) and borderline resectable (BR) pancreatic cancer (PC).

BACKGROUND

C-RFS analysis assesses the probability of achieving additional RFS according to the RFS already accrued.

METHODS

Patients with NAT and subsequent resection for R/BRPC were enrolled. In the C-RFS analysis, the actual 5-year RFS (5yRFS) rate was calculated separately in the subgroup that had already gained a given amount of RFS. The significance levels of prognostic variables associated with 5yRFS were assessed regarding their time-dependent dynamics in a conditional fashion.

RESULTS

Among the total 397 patients, 160 survived for more than 5 years without recurrence after surgery (actual 5yRFS rate: 45%). The probability of 5yRFS incrementally increased based on the RFS already accrued. Pathological nodal and vascular involvement were significant influencers of 5yRFS. The patients with nodal involvement consistently remained at significantly higher risk of recurrence than those without, even after 5yRFS, whereas positivity of vascular involvement was significantly associated with the risk of recurrence only during the early postoperative period and lost its significance after 3yRFS accrued.

CONCLUSIONS

In NAT for R/BRPC, the probability of gaining additional RFS increases as a function of RFS already accrued, and the significance of prognostic variables time-dependently evolves in their own patterns during the long-term postoperative period.

Impact of Laparoscopic Gastrectomy on the Completion Rate of the Perioperative Chemotherapy Regimen in Gastric Cancer: A Swedish Nationwide Study

BACKGROUND

Omission of prescheduled chemotherapy following surgery for gastric cancer is a frequent clinical problem. This study examined whether laparoscopic gastrectomy (LG) had a positive impact on compliance with adjuvant chemotherapy compared with open (OG).

METHODS

Patients with cT2-4aN0-3M0 adenocarcinoma treated with gastrectomy and perioperative chemotherapy between 2015 and 2020 were identified in the Swedish national register. Additional information regarding chemotherapy was retrieved from medical records. Regression models were used to investigate the association between surgical approach and the following outcomes: initiation of adjuvant chemotherapy, modification, and time interval from surgery to start of treatment.

RESULTS

A total of 247 patients were included (121 OG and 126 LG, conversion rate 11%), of which 71.3% had performance status ECOG 0 and 77.7% clinical stage II/III. In total, 86.2% of patients started adjuvant chemotherapy, with no significant difference between the groups (LG 88.1% vs OG 84.3%, p = 0.5). Reduction of chemotherapy occurred in 37.4% of patients and was similar between groups (LG 39.4% vs OG 35.1%, p = 0.6), as was the time interval from surgery. In multivariable analysis, LG was not associated with the probability of starting adjuvant chemotherapy (OR 1.36, p = 0.4) or the need for reduction (OR 1.29, p = 0.4). Conversely, major complications had a significant, negative impact on both outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

This nationwide study demonstrated a high rate of adjuvant chemotherapy initiation after curative intended surgery for gastric cancer. A beneficial effect of LG compared with OG on the completion rate was not evident.

Quantitative estimates of preventable and treatable deaths from 36 cancers worldwide: a population-based study

BACKGROUND

Cancer is a leading cause of premature mortality globally. This study estimates premature deaths at ages 30-69 years and distinguishes these as deaths that are preventable (avertable through primary or secondary prevention) or treatable (avertable through curative treatment) in 185 countries worldwide.

METHODS

For this population-based study, estimated cancer deaths by country, cancer, sex, and age groups were retrieved from the International Agency for Research on Cancer's GLOBOCAN 2020 database. Crude and age-adjusted cancer-specific years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated for 36 cancer types.

FINDINGS

Of the estimated all-ages cancer burden of 265·6 million YLLs, 182·8 million (68·8%) YLLs were due to premature deaths from cancer globally in 2020, with 124·3 million (68·0%) preventable and 58·5 million (32·0%) treatable. Countries with low, medium, or high human development index (HDI) levels all had greater proportions of YLLs at premature ages than very high HDI countries (68·9%, 77·0%, and 72·2% vs 57·7%, respectively). Lung cancer was the leading contributor to preventable premature YLLs in medium to very high HDI countries (17·4% of all cancers, or 29·7 million of 171·3 million YLLs), whereas cervical cancer led in low HDI countries (26·3% of all preventable cancers, or 1·83 million of 6·93 million YLLs). Colorectal and breast cancers were major treatable cancers across all four tiers of HDI (25·5% of all treatable cancers in combination, or 14·9 million of 58·5 million YLLs).

INTERPRETATION

Alongside tailored programmes of early diagnosis and screening linked to timely and comprehensive treatment, greater investments in risk factor reduction and vaccination are needed to address premature cancer inequalities.

FUNDING

Erasmus Mundus Exchange Programme and the International Agency for Research on Cancer.

TRANSLATIONS

For the German, French, Spanish and Chinese translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Conditional survival in breast cancer up to 10 years in the Nordic countries

BACKGROUND

Survival in breast cancer (BC) has developed favorably but late recurrences are still a problem.

METHODS

We model survival data from the NORDCAN database and analyze 1-, 5-, and 10-year relative survival and 5/1- and 10/5-year conditional survival in BC from Denmark (DK), Finland (FI), Norway (NO), and Sweden (SE) between 1971 and 2020. Conditional survival measures survival in those who had survived year 1 to reach year 5 (5/1), or in those who had survived year 5 to reach year 10 (10/5).

RESULTS

Almost all survival metrics were best for SE but survival in all countries improved in the course of time approaching the SE levels which were 98.3% for 1-year, 92.3% for 5-year, and 87.8% for 10-year survival. Conditional 10/5-year survival, covering 5 years, was better than 5/1-year survival, covering 4 years. A contributing factor is most likely the high rate of recurrence in period 2-5 years. The difference was observed for all countries but for DK 10/5-year survival approached 1-year survival and for NO and SE 10/5-year survival was only barely better than 5/1-year survival. The explanation to this was the excellent 10/5-year survival in DK compared to SE and particularly to NO. Literature search suggested that the reason for the relatively low 10/5-year survival in NO might be stagnant survival development in old patients.

CONCLUSIONS

We assume that late mortality is critically limiting survival in BC and either interference with the late metastatic process or effective treatment will be key to future improvements in BC survival.

Genetic counselling referral practices for patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma: A French retrospective multicentre observational cohort study (CAPANCOGEN)

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Genetic counselling (GC) is a key step in the identification of inherited germline mutations. However, the oncogenetic practices are poorly described for pancreatic adenocarcinoma (PA) in Europe. The CAPANCOGEN study aimed to describe the GC referral practices in France and assess the implementation of international guidelines in patients with PA.

METHODS

Information about GC referrals with PA was collected in 13 French centres from September 2019 to October 2021. In the 5 largest centres, personal and familial histories of cancers and diseases associated with a higher risk of germline mutations were collected in 460 patients, according to international, American, European and French GC referral guidelines. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis were performed to identify the factors influencing GC referral.

RESULTS

Among 833 patients, a total of 100 patients (12%) had an indication of GC according to local multidisciplinary tumour board meetings (MTBM). Among these patients, 41% did not undergo GC. The median time between MTBM and GC was 55 days (IQR: 14.5-112). Among 460 patients with collected personal and familial history, 31.5% were not referred to a GC despite an existing indication. In multivariate logistic regression analysis, suspected CDKN2A (p = 0.032) or BRCA mutation (p < 0.001), familial pancreatic cancer history (p < 0.001) and controlled disease with first-line platinum-based chemotherapy (p < 0.001) increased the referral rate. Conversely, older age (p = 0.002) and a locally advanced PA (p = 0.045) decreased the risk of GC referral.

CONCLUSIONS

GC referral is inadequate despite valuable information in patients' medical files.

Long-Term Periodic and Conditional Survival Trends in Prostate, Testicular, and Penile Cancers in the Nordic Countries, Marking Timing of Improvements

Survival studies are important tools for cancer control, but long-term survival data on high-quality cancer registries are lacking for all cancers, including prostate (PC), testicular (TC), and penile cancers. Using generalized additive models and data from the NORDCAN database, we analyzed 1- and 5-year relative survival for these cancers in Denmark (DK), Finland (FI), Norway (NO), and Sweden (SE) over a 50-year period (1971-2020). We additionally estimated conditional 5/1-year survival for patients who survived the 1st year after diagnosis. Survival improved early for TC, and 5-year survival reached 90% between 1985 (SE) and 2000 (FI). Towards the end of the follow-up, the TC patients who had survived the 1st year survived the next 4 years with comparable probability to the background population. For PC, the 90% landmark was reached between 2000 (FI) and after 2010 (DK). For penile cancer, 5-year survival never reached the 90% landmark, and the improvements in survival were modest at best. For TC, early mortality requires attention, whereas late mortality should be tackled for PC. For penile cancer, the relatively high early mortality may suggest delays in diagnosis and would require more public awareness and encouragement of patients to seek medical opinion. In FI, TC and penile cancer patients showed roughly double risk of dying compared to the other Nordic countries, which warrants further study and clinical attention.

Cost-Effectiveness of brexucabtagene autoleucel for relapsed/refractory mantle cell lymphoma

Brexucabtagene autoleucel is a chimeric anti CD19 antigen receptor T-cell therapy that allows durable responses in relapsed/refractory (R/R) mantle cell lymphoma (MCL). The present study compared the clinical and economic outcomes of R/R MCL patients (pre-exposed to ibrutinib and chemoimmunotherapy) treated with brexucabtagene autoleucel versus Rituximab, bendamustine, cytarabine (R-BAC) in the Italian Healthcare System. A partitioned-survival model extrapolated survival and healthcare costs of R/R MCL patients over a lifetime horizon. Discounted and quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALY) was 6.40 versus 1.20 for brexucabtagene autoleucel versus R-BAC and lifetime costs were €411,403 versus €74,415, respectively, which corresponds to a cost of €64,798 per QALY gained. The results were highly sensitive to brexucabtagene autoleucel acquisition cost and to assumptions on long-term survival, therefore the cost-effectiveness of brexucabtagene autoleucel for patients with R/R MCL requires validation with longer follow-up data and in specific risk subgroups.

Complete prevalence and indicators of cancer cure: enhanced methods and validation in Italian population-based cancer registries

Objectives

To describe the procedures to derive complete prevalence and several indicators of cancer cure from population-based cancer registries.

Materials and methods

Cancer registry data (47% of the Italian population) were used to calculate limited duration prevalence for 62 cancer types by sex and registry. The incidence and survival models, needed to calculate the completeness index (R) and complete prevalence, were evaluated by likelihood ratio tests and by visual comparison. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to explore the effect on the complete prevalence of using different R indexes. Mixture cure models were used to estimate net survival (NS); life expectancy of fatal (LEF) cases; cure fraction (CF); time to cure (TTC); cure prevalence, prevalent patients who were not at risk of dying as a result of cancer; and already cured patients, those living longer than TTC at a specific point in time. CF was also compared with long-term NS since, for patients diagnosed after a certain age, CF (representing asymptotical values of NS) is reached far beyond the patient's life expectancy.

Results

For the most frequent cancer types, the Weibull survival model stratified by sex and age showed a very good fit with observed survival. For men diagnosed with any cancer type at age 65-74 years, CF was 41%, while the NS was 49% until age 100 and 50% until age 90. In women, similar differences emerged for patients with any cancer type or with breast cancer. Among patients alive in 2018 with colorectal cancer at age 55-64 years, 48% were already cured (had reached their specific TTC), while the cure prevalence (lifelong probability to be cured from cancer) was 89%. Cure prevalence became 97.5% (2.5% will die because of their neoplasm) for patients alive >5 years after diagnosis.

Conclusions

This study represents an addition to the current knowledge on the topic providing a detailed description of available indicators of prevalence and cancer cure, highlighting the links among them, and illustrating their interpretation. Indicators may be relevant for patients and clinical practice; they are unambiguously defined, measurable, and reproducible in different countries where population-based cancer registries are active.

Long-term survival trends in solid cancers in the Nordic countries marking timing of improvements

Survival studies are an important indicator of the success of cancer control. We analyzed the 5-year relative survival in 23 solid cancers in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden over a 50-year period (1970-2019) at the NORDCAN database accessed from the International Agency for Research on Cancer website. We plotted survival curves in 5-year periods and showed 5-year periodic survival. The survival results were summarized in four groups: (1) cancers with historically good survival (>50% in 1970-1974) which include melanoma and breast, endometrial and thyroid cancers; (2) cancers which constantly improved survival at least 20% units over the 50 year period, including cancers of the stomach, colon, rectum, kidney, brain and ovary; (3) cancer with increase in survival >20% units with changes taking place in a narrow time window, including oral, oropharyngeal, testicular and prostate cancers; (4) the remaining cancers with <20% unit improvement in survival including lung, esophageal, liver, pancreatic, bladder, soft tissue, penile, cervical and vulvar cancers. For cancers in groups 1 and 2, the constant development implied multiple improvements in therapy, diagnosis and patient care. Cancers in group 3 included testicular cancers with known therapeutic improvements but for the others large incidence changes probably implied that cancer stage (prostate) or etiology (oropharynx) changed into a more tractable form. Group 4 cancers included those with dismal survival 50 years ago but a clear tendency upwards. In 17 cancers 5-year survival reached between 50% and 100% while in only six cancers it remained at below 50%.

Surgical resection as a predictor of cancer-specific survival by stage at diagnosis and cancer type, United States, 2006-2015

BACKGROUND

When solid tumors are amenable to definitive resection, clinical outcomes are generally superior to when those tumors are inoperable. However, the population-level cancer survival benefit of eligibility for surgery by cancer stage has not yet been quantified.

METHODS

Using Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results data allowing us to identify patients who were deemed eligible for and received surgical resection, we examined the stage-specific association of surgical resection with 12-year cancer-specific survival. The 12-year endpoint was selected to maximize follow-up time and thereby minimize the influence of lead time bias.

RESULTS

Across a variety of solid tumor types, earlier stage at diagnosis allowed for surgical intervention at a much higher rate than later-stage diagnosis. At every stage, surgical intervention was associated with a substantially higher rate of 12-year cancer-specific survival, with absolute differences of up to 51% for stage I, 51% for stage II, and 44% for stage III cancer, and stage-specific mortality relative risks of 3.6, 2.4, and 1.7, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Diagnosis of solid cancers in early stages often enables surgical resection, which reduces the risk of death from cancer. Receipt of surgical resection is an informative endpoint that is strongly associated with long-term cancer-specific survival at every stage.

A new cure model that corrects for increased risk of non-cancer death: analysis of reliability and robustness, and application to real-life data

BACKGROUND

Non-cancer mortality in cancer patients may be higher than overall mortality in the general population due to a combination of factors, such as long-term adverse effects of treatments, and genetic, environmental or lifestyle-related factors. If so, conventional indicators may underestimate net survival and cure fraction. Our aim was to propose and evaluate a mixture cure survival model that takes into account the increased risk of non-cancer death for cancer patients.

METHODS

We assessed the performance of a corrected mixture cure survival model derived from a conventional mixture cure model to estimate the cure fraction, the survival of uncured patients, and the increased risk of non-cancer death in two settings of net survival estimation, grouped life-table data and individual patients' data. We measured the model's performance in terms of bias, standard deviation of the estimates and coverage rate, using an extensive simulation study. This study included reliability assessments through violation of some of the model's assumptions. We also applied the models to colon cancer data from the FRANCIM network.

RESULTS

When the assumptions were satisfied, the corrected cure model provided unbiased estimates of parameters expressing the increased risk of non-cancer death, the cure fraction, and net survival in uncured patients. No major difference was found when the model was applied to individual or grouped data. The absolute bias was < 1% for all parameters, while coverage ranged from 89 to 97%. When some of the assumptions were violated, parameter estimates appeared more robust when obtained from grouped than from individual data. As expected, the uncorrected cure model performed poorly and underestimated net survival and cure fractions in the simulation study. When applied to colon cancer real-life data, cure fractions estimated using the proposed model were higher than those in the conventional model, e.g. 5% higher in males at age 60 (57% vs. 52%).

CONCLUSIONS

The present analysis supports the use of the corrected mixture cure model, with the inclusion of increased risk of non-cancer death for cancer patients to provide better estimates of indicators based on cancer survival. These are important to public health decision-making; they improve patients' awareness and facilitate their return to normal life.

Quality Indicators Compliance and Survival Outcomes in Breast Cancer according to Age in a Certified Center

Age as a breast cancer (BC) prognostic factor remains debatable. Several studies have investigated clinicopathological features at different ages, but few make an age group direct comparison. The European Society of Breast Cancer Specialists quality indicators (EUSOMA-QIs) allow a standardized quality assurance of BC diagnosis, treatment, and follow-up. Our objective was to compare clinicopathological features, compliance to EUSOMA-QIs and BC outcomes in three age groups (≤45 years, 46-69 years, and ≥70 years). Data from 1580 patients with staged 0-IV BC from 2015 to 2019 were analyzed. The minimum standard and desirable target on 19 mandatory and 7 recommended QIs were studied. The 5-year relapse rate, overall survival (OS), and BC-specific survival (BCSS) were also evaluated. No meaningful differences in TNM staging and molecular subtyping classification between age groups were found. On the contrary, disparities in QIs compliance were observed: 73.1% in ≤45 years and 46-69 years women vs. 54% in older patients. No differences in loco-regional or distant progression were observed between age groups. Nevertheless, lower OS was found in older patients due to concurrent non-oncological causes. After survival curves adjustment, we underscored evidence of undertreatment impacting BCSS in ≥70 years women. Despite a unique exception-more invasive G3 tumors in younger patients-no age-specific differences in BC biology impacting outcome were found. Although increased noncompliance in older women, no outcome correlation was observed with QIs noncompliance in any age group. Clinicopathological features and differences in multimodal treatment (not the chronological age) are predictors of lower BCSS.

Measuring population-level cure patterns for cancer patients in the United States

While the life expectancy of cancer survivors has substantially improved over time in the United States, the extent to which cancer patients are cured is not known. Population-level cure patterns are important indicators to quantify cancer survivorships. This population-based cohort study included 8978,721 cancer patients registered in the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) databases between 1975 and 2018. The primary outcome was cure fractions. Five-year cure probability, time to cure and median survival time of uncured cases were also assessed. All four measures were calculated using flexible parametric models, according to 46 cancer sites, three summary stages, individual age and calendar year at diagnosis. In 2018, cure fractions ranged from 2.7% for distant liver cancer to 100.0% for localized/regional prostate cancer. Localized cancer had the highest cure fraction, followed by regional cancer and distant cancer. Except for localized breast cancer, older patients generally had lower cure fractions. There were 38 cancer site and stage combinations (31.2%) that achieved 95% of cure within 5 years. Median survival time of the uncured cases ranged from 0.3 years for distant liver cancer to 10.9 years for localized urinary bladder cancer. A total of 117 cancer site and stage combinations (93.6%) had increased cure fraction over time. A considerable proportion of cancer patients were cured at the population-level, and the cure patterns varied substantially across cancer site, stage and age at diagnosis. Increases in cure fractions over time likely reflected advances in cancer treatment and early detection.

Adolescent cancer care: What has changed in Spain in the past decade?

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

In 2012, the Adolescents with Cancer Working Group published the results of a survey on care delivery for the adolescent population in Spain as a starting point for future intervention. The aim of this nationwide survey was to outline the current situation and assess whether the implemented strategies have resulted in changes in care delivery.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Survey consisting of the same items analysed and published in 2012. The questionnaire was structured into sections devoted to epidemiology, psychosocial care, infrastructure, treatment and follow-up of adolescents with cancer. It was submitted to all hospitals in Spain with a paediatric haematology and oncology unit. We conducted a descriptive analysis of the results.

RESULTS

The percentage of patients aged up to 18 years managed in paediatric units has increased from 35.9% to 77.5% in the past decade. The proportion of malignant blood tumours treated in paediatric units increased from 31% to 52%, and the proportion of solid tumours from 49% to 85%. In 2012, 30 units (out of 39) reported that new cases in adolescents amounted to up to 10% of the total. At present, only 14 (out of 40) continue to report this percentage. A decade ago, there were no specific adolescent cancer units in Spain. Now, 7 centres (out of 40) have specific multidisciplinary units. There has been little change in psychological support services for adolescents. The follow-up of survivors is carried out by paediatric specialists in 82.5% of the hospitals.

CONCLUSIONS

The efforts made to centralise the care of adolescents with cancer in specific multidisciplinary adolescent units or, failing that, paediatric units, is reflected in the changes in care delivery in Spain in the past decade. Much remains to be done in key components of the management of adolescents with cancer.

PARP Inhibitors in the Management of BRCA-Positive Prostate Cancer: An Overview

Prostate cancer is the second most common form of cancer in men and the fifth leading cause of death among men worldwide. Men with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) often have BRCA-1 or BRCA-2 gene mutations which can make them sensitive to poly-(ADP-ribose) polymerase inhibitors or PARP inhibitors (PARPi), such as Olaparib, Rucaparib, and Niraparib. Although significant advances have been made with PARPi and the prognosis of patients with mCRPC has improved dramatically, resistance often constitutes a challenge that frequently results in tumor escape. This present communication paper explores the role of PARPi in BRCA-positive prostate cancer and sheds light on numerous published and ongoing clinical trials that will determine the future of PARPi at various tumor stages as a monotherapy or polytherapy regime.

Clinicians' and Patients' Perceptions and Use of the Word "Cured" in Cancer Care: An Italian Survey

BACKGROUND

The words "hope" and "cure" were used in a greater number of articles and sentences in narrative and editorial papers than in primary research. Despite concomitant improvements in cancer outcomes, the related reluctance to use these terms in more scientifically oriented original reports may reflect a bias worthy of future exploration. This study aims to survey a group of physicians and cancer patients regarding their perception and use of the word cure.

MATERIALS AND METHOD

An anonymous online and print survey was conducted to explore Italian clinicians' (the sample includes medical oncologists, radiotherapists, and oncological surgeons) and cancer patients' approach to the perception and use of the word "cure" in cancer care. The participants received an email informing them of the study's purpose and were invited to participate in the survey via a linked form. A portion, two-thirds, of questionnaires were also administered to patients in the traditional paper form.

RESULTS

The survey was completed by 224 clinicians (54 oncologists, 78 radiotherapists, and 92 cancer surgeons) and 249 patients. The results indicate a favourable attitude for patients in favour of a new language ("cured" vs. "complete remission") of the disease experience.

CONCLUSIONS

The use of the word cured is substantially accepted and equally shared by doctors and patients. Its use can facilitate the elimination of metaphoric implications and toxic cancer-related connotations registered in all cultures that discourage patients from viewing cancer as a disease with varied outcomes, including cure.

Ten-Year Probabilities of Death Due to Cancer and Cardiovascular Disease among Breast Cancer Patients Diagnosed in North-Eastern Spain

Mortality from cardiovascular disease (CVD), second tumours, and other causes is of clinical interest in the long-term follow-up of breast cancer (BC) patients. Using a cohort of BC patients (N = 6758) from the cancer registries of Girona and Tarragona (north-eastern Spain), we studied the 10-year probabilities of death due to BC, other cancers, and CVD according to stage at diagnosis and hormone receptor (HR) status. Among the non-BC causes of death (N = 720), CVD (N = 218) surpassed other cancers (N = 196). The BC cohort presented a significantly higher risk of death due to endometrial and ovarian cancers than the general population. In Stage I, HR- patients showed a 1.72-fold higher probability of all-cause death and a 6.11-fold higher probability of breast cancer death than HR+ patients. In Stages II-III, the probability of CVD death (range 3.11% to 3.86%) surpassed that of other cancers (range 0.54% to 3.11%). In Stage IV patients, the probability of death from any cancer drove the mortality risk. Promoting screening and preventive measures in BC patients are warranted, since long-term control should encompass early detection of second neoplasms, ruling out the possibility of late recurrence. In patients diagnosed in Stages II-III at an older age, surveillance for preventing late cardiotoxicity is crucial.

A natural history and copula-based joint model for regional and distant breast cancer metastasis

The few existing statistical models of breast cancer recurrence and progression to distant metastasis are predominantly based on multi-state modelling. While useful for summarising the risk of recurrence, these provide limited insight into the underlying biological mechanisms and have limited use for understanding the implications of population-level interventions. We develop an alternative, novel, and parsimonious approach for modelling latent tumour growth and spread to local and distant metastasis, based on a natural history model with biologically inspired components. We include marginal sub-models for local and distant breast cancer metastasis, jointly modelled using a copula function. Different formulations (and correlation shapes) are allowed, thus we can incorporate and directly model the correlation between local and distant metastasis flexibly and efficiently. Submodels for the latent cancer growth, the detection process, and screening sensitivity, together with random effects to account for between-patients heterogeneity, are included. Although relying on several parametric assumptions, the joint copula model can be useful for understanding - potentially latent - disease dynamics, obtaining patient-specific, model-based predictions, and studying interventions at a population level, for example, using microsimulation. We illustrate this approach using data from a Swedish population-based case-control study of postmenopausal breast cancer, including examples of useful model-based predictions.

Survival trends in solid cancers in the Nordic countries through 50 years

AIMS

Global survival studies in cancer have generally shown favourable development, but studies over extended periods on populations for which medical care is essentially free of charge are lacking.

METHODS

We analyse relative 1- and 5-year survival in all solid cancers in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden through a 50-year period (1970-2019) using the NORDCAN database.

RESULTS

The most recent survival results showed three types of patterns. Cancers of very good survival (5-year survival ∼90%) included common cancers of the breast and prostate, as well as melanoma. The second pattern, which included the largest number of cancers, showed 1-year survival of over 80% and a drop of 10-20 % units in 5-year survival. The third group consisted of eight fatal cancers, sharing poor 5-year survival (around 20%). The 50-year improvement in 1-year survival was largest (30-50 % units) in kidney, brain, gallbladder and liver cancers, and (∼30%) in colon, small intestinal, lung, pleural, pancreas and ovarian cancers. Improvements in 5-year survival were highest (40-50 % units) in prostate and kidney cancers but remained at 10-20 % units for the eight fatal cancers. Survival showed significant sex preferences for a few cancers.

CONCLUSIONS

The analysis over a half-century confirms the progress in 'real-world' cancer control, and in 84% of patients 5-year survival was &gt;60%. Metastases remain a challenge, placing the emphasis on early detection before metastasis occurs. Novel therapies, such as immunotherapy which has curative potential even against metastatic disease, are needed.

ESMO Expert Consensus Statements on Cancer Survivorship: promoting high-quality survivorship care and research in Europe

BACKGROUND

The increased number of cancer survivors and the recognition of physical and psychosocial challenges, present from cancer diagnosis through active treatment and beyond, led to the discipline of cancer survivorship.

DESIGN AND METHODS

Herein, we reflected on the different components of survivorship care, existing models and priorities, in order to facilitate the promotion of high-quality European survivorship care and research.

RESULTS

We identified five main components of survivorship care: (i) physical effects of cancer and chronic medical conditions; (ii) psychological effects of cancer; (iii) social, work and financial effects of cancer; (iv) surveillance for recurrences and second cancers; and (v) cancer prevention and overall health and well-being promotion. Survivorship care can be delivered by structured care models including but not limited to shared models integrating primary care and oncology services. The choice of the care model to be implemented has to be adapted to local realities. High-quality care should be expedited by the generation of: (i) focused and shared European recommendations, (ii) creation of tools to facilitate implementation of coordinated care and (iii) survivorship educational programs for health care teams and patients. The research agenda should be defined with the participation of health care providers, researchers, policy makers, patients and caregivers. The following patient-centered survivorship research areas were highlighted: (i) generation of a big data platform to collect long-term real-world data in survivors and healthy controls to (a) understand the resources, needs and preferences of patients with cancer, and (b) understand biological determinants of survivorship issues, and (ii) develop innovative effective interventions focused on the main components of survivorship care.

CONCLUSIONS

The European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) can actively contribute in the efforts of the oncology community toward (a) promoting the development of high-quality survivorship care programs, (b) providing educational material and (c) aiding groundbreaking research by reflecting on priorities and by supporting research networking.

Cancer Cure and Consequences on Survivorship Care: Position Paper from the Italian Alliance Against Cancer (ACC) Survivorship Care Working Group

A multidisciplinary panel of experts and cancer patients developed a position paper to highlight recent evidence on "cancer cure" (ie, the possibility of achieving the same life expectancy as the general population) and discuss the consequences of this concept on follow-up and rehabilitation strategies. The aim is to inform clinicians, patients, and health-care policy makers about strategies of survivorship care for cured cancer patients and consequences impacting patient lives, spurring public health authorities and research organizations to implement resources to the purpose. Two identifiable, measurable, and reproducible indicators of cancer cure are presented. Cure fraction (CF) is >60% for breast and prostate cancer patients, >50% for colorectal cancer patients, and >70% for patients with melanoma, Hodgkin lymphoma, and cancers of corpus uteri, testis (>90%), and thyroid. CF was >65% for patients diagnosed at ages 15-44 years and 30% for those aged 65-74 years. Time-to-cure was consistently <1 year for thyroid and testicular cancer patients and <10 years for patients with colorectal and cervical cancers, melanoma, and Hodgkin lymphoma. The working group agrees that the evidence allows risk stratification of cancer patients and implementation of personalized care models for timely diagnosis, as well as treatment of possible cancer relapses or related long-term complications, and preventive measures aimed at maintaining health status of cured patients. These aspects should be integrated to produce an appropriate follow-up program and survivorship care plan(s), avoiding stigma and supporting return to work, to a reproductive life, and full rehabilitation. The "right to be forgotten" law, adopted to date only in a few European countries, may contribute to these efforts for cured patients.

Survival of Breast Cancer by Stage, Grade and Molecular Groups in Mallorca, Spain

The aims of this study are: (1) to determine cause-specific survival by stage, grade, and molecular groups of breast cancer, (2) to identify factors which explain and predict the likelihood of survival and the risk of dying from this cancer; and (3) to find out the distribution of breast cancer cases by stage, grade, and molecular groups in females diagnosed in the period 2006–2012 in Mallorca (Spain). We collected data regarding age, date and diagnostic method, histology, laterality, sublocation, pathological or clinical tumor size (T), pathological or clinical regional lymph nodes (N), metastasis (M) and stage, histologic grade, estrogen and progesterone receptors status, HER-2 expression, Ki67 level, molecular classification, date of last follow-up or date of death, and cause of death. We identified 2869 cases. Cause-specific survival for the entire sample was 96% 1 year after diagnosis, 91% at 3 years and 87% at 5 years. Relative survival was 96.9% 1 year after diagnosis, 92.6% at 3 years and 88.5% at 5 years. The competing-risks regression model determined that patients over 65 years of age and patients with triple negative cancer have worse prognoses, and as stages progress, the prognosis for breast cancer worsens, especially from stage III.

Web-Based Personalized Intervention to Improve Quality of Life and Self-Efficacy of Long-Term Breast Cancer Survivors: Study Protocol for a Randomized Controlled Trial

Long-term breast cancer survivors (>5 years free of disease) may suffer late sequelae of cancer that impact on their quality of life. The use of telehealth for cancer care is recommended but little is known about the effectiveness of digital interventions for long-term cancer survivors. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of a web-based personalized intervention based on artificial intelligence instead of usual primary health care to improve the quality of life of long-term survivors of breast cancer and self-efficacy for the management of late sequelae. A randomized controlled trial will be conducted. The sample will consist of long-term breast cancer survivors recruited from primary health centers. Women will be randomly assigned to the intervention group to receive a web-based personalized intervention or to the control group to receive standard primary health care by nurses. Data on quality of life of cancer survivors and self-efficacy for the management of late sequelae of cancer will be collected and assessed at preintervention, and at 3, 6, and 9 months. It is expected that, at the end of the programme, the experimental group will have improved quality of life and improved self-efficacy for the management of late sequelae of cancer.

Cancer cost profiles: The Epicost estimation approach

Sustainability of cancer burden is becoming increasingly central in the policy makers' debate, and poses a challenge for the welfare systems, due to trends towards greater intensity of healthcare service use, which imply increasing costs of cancer care. Measuring and projecting the economic burden associated with cancer and identifying effective policies for minimising its impact are important issues for healthcare systems. Scope of this paper is to illustrate a novel comprehensive approach (called Epicost) to the estimation of the economic burden of cancer, based on micro-data collected from multiple data sources. It consists of a model of cost analysis to estimate the amount of reimbursement payed by the National Health Service to health service providers (hospitals, ambulatories, pharmacies) for the expenses incurred in the diagnoses and treatments of a cohort of cancer patients; these cancer costs are estimated in various phases of the disease reflecting patients' patterns of care: initial, monitoring and final phase. The main methodological features are illustrated using a cohort of colon cancer cases from a Cancer Registry in Italy. This approach has been successfully implemented in Italy and it has been adapted to other European countries, such as Belgium, Norway and Poland in the framework of the Innovative Partnership for Action Against Cancer (iPAAC) Joint Action, sponsored by the European Commission. It is replicable in countries/regions where population-based cancer registry data is available and linkable at individual level with administrative data on costs of care.

The relative contribution of the decreasing trend in tumour thickness to the 2010s increase in net survival from cutaneous malignant melanoma in Italy: a population-based investigation

BACKGROUND

The long-term increase in survival from cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) is generally attributed to the decreasing trend in tumour thickness, the single most important prognostic factor.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the relative contribution of decreased tumour thickness to the favourable trend in survival from CMM in Italy.

METHODS

Eleven local cancer registries covering a population of 8 056 608 (13.4% of the Italian population in 2010) provided records for people with primary CMM registered between 2003 and 2017. Age-standardized 5-year net survival was calculated. Multivariate analysis of 5-year net survival was undertaken by calculating the relative excess risk (RER) of death. The relative contribution of the decrease in tumour thickness to the RER of death was evaluated using a forward stepwise flexible parametric survival model including the available prognostic factors.

RESULTS

Over the study period, tumour thickness was inversely associated with 5-year net survival and multivariate RER in both sexes. The median thickness was 0.90 mm in 2003-2007, 0.85 mm in 2008-2012 and 0.75 mm in 2013-2017 among male patients, and 0.78 mm, 0.77 mm and 0.68 mm among female patients, respectively. The 5-year net survival was 86.8%, 89.2% and 93.2% in male patients, and 91.4%, 92.0% and 93.4% in female patients, respectively. In 2013-2017, male patients exhibited the same survival as female patients despite having thicker lesions. For them, the increasing survival trend was more pronounced with increasing thickness, and the inclusion of thickness in the forward stepwise model made the RER in 2013-2017 vs. 2003-2007 increase from 0.64 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.51-0.80] to 0.70 (95% CI 0.57-0.86). This indicates that the thickness trend accounted for less than 20% of the survival increase. For female patients, the results were not significant but, with multiple imputation of missing thickness values, the RER rose from 0.74 (95% CI 0.58-0.93) to 0.82 (95% CI 0.66-1.02) in 2013-2017.

CONCLUSIONS

For male patients in particular, decrease in tumour thickness accounted for a small part of the improvement in survival observed in 2013-2017. The introduction of targeted therapies and immune checkpoint inhibitors in 2013 is most likely to account for the remaining improvement.

Assessment of Serum Urea, Creatinine and Uric Acid in Oral Cancer

Background: Oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) is a common malignancy worldwide, leading to significant disease-associated social and financial burdens. The investigation of underlying mechanisms involved in carcinogenesis and tumor progression in OSCC might provide new therapeutic perspectives with an impact on disease control and patient survival. Our study aims to investigate the interrelation between metabolic processes, expressed through final catabolism products and clinicopathological characteristics in OSCC. Materials and methods: This is a single cancer comparative retrospective study investigating metabolic byproducts, namely serum urea, creatinine and uric acid, detected at the moment of diagnosis in patients with OSCC, in comparison to healthy controls. Clinical and paraclinical data regarding exposure to risk factors, disease staging and pathological characteristics were collected for all patients. Subjects with co-existing systemic or metabolic diseases, or with a history of malignancy, were excluded from the study. Subsequently, the metabolic byproducts revealing significant changes in OSCC patients were considered for a correlation analysis with the disease clinico-pathological characteristics. Results: Blood levels for urea, creatinine and uric acid were determined in a total of 225 subjects: 145 patients diagnosed with OSCC and 80 healthy control subjects admitted to our hospital between 2016 and 2021. The comparative analysis between groups revealed that the serum urea level was significantly lower in OSCC patients (p = 0.0344). Serum creatinine and uric acid did not reveal significant differences between groups. Furthermore, in advanced stages of the disease (stages III and IV), the blood level of urea was significantly lower compared to incipient OSCC (stages I and II) (p = 0.003). We found a negative correlation of serum urea levels with smoking (p = 0.0004) and cervical lymph node metastasis (p = 0.0070), and a positive correlation with aging (p = 0.0000). We found no significant correlation of serum urea with primary tumor size (p = 0.5061) and patient survival (p = 0.2932). Conclusions: Decreased serum urea levels are detected in patients with advanced OSCC, in correlation with lymph node metastasis. The invasive features of tumor cells in OSCC might be promoted in association with dysregulation of protein catabolism processes, facilitating aggressive behavior in OSCC.

Get up, stand up: Alongside adolescents and young adults with cancer for their right to be forgotten

Adolescent and young adult cancer survivors may experience various forms of social difficulties years or even decades after completing their cancer treatments. This article will hopefully help the Italian national project dedicated to adolescents and young adults with cancer promoting political and legal solutions to stop discrimination and supporting the right to be forgotten.

Using population-based data to evaluate the impact of adherence to endocrine therapy on survival in breast cancer through the web-application BreCanSurvPred

We show how the use and interpretation of population-based cancer survival indicators can help oncologists talk with breast cancer (BC) patients about the relationship between their prognosis and their adherence to endocrine therapy (ET). The study population comprised a population-based cohort of estrogen receptor positive BC patients (N = 1268) diagnosed in Girona and Tarragona (Northeastern Spain) and classified according to HER2 status (+ / −), stage at diagnosis (I/II/III) and five-year cumulative adherence rate (adherent > 80%; non-adherent ≤ 80%). Cox regression analysis was performed to identify significant prognostic factors for overall survival, whereas relative survival (RS) was used to estimate the crude probability of death due to BC (P_BC). Stage and adherence to ET were the significant factors for predicting all-cause mortality. Compared to stage I, risk of death increased in stage II (hazard ratio [HR] 2.24, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.51–3.30) and stage III (HR 5.11, 95% CI 3.46–7.51), and it decreased with adherence to ET (HR 0.57, 95% CI 0.41–0.59). P_BC differences were higher in non-adherent patients compared to adherent ones and increased across stages: stage I: 6.61% (95% CI 0.05–13.20); stage II: 9.77% (95% CI 0.59–19.01), and stage III: 22.31% (95% CI 6.34–38.45). The age-adjusted survival curves derived from this modeling were implemented in the web application BreCanSurvPred (https://pdocomputation.snpstats.net/BreCanSurvPred). Web applications like BreCanSurvPred can help oncologists discuss the consequences of non-adherence to prescribed ET with patients.

No Excess Mortality up to 10 Years in Early Stages of Breast Cancer in Women Adherent to Oral Endocrine Therapy: A Probabilistic Graphical Modeling Approach

Breast cancer (BC) is globally the most frequent cancer in women. Adherence to endocrine therapy (ET) in hormone-receptor-positive BC patients is active and voluntary for the first five years after diagnosis. This study examines the impact of adherence to ET on 10-year excess mortality (EM) in patients diagnosed with Stages I to III BC (N = 2297). Since sample size is an issue for estimating age- and stage-specific survival indicators, we developed a method, ComSynSurData, for generating a large synthetic dataset (SynD) through probabilistic graphical modeling of the original cohort. We derived population-based survival indicators using a Bayesian relative survival model fitted to the SynD. Our modeling showed that hormone-receptor-positive BC patients diagnosed beyond 49 years of age at Stage I or beyond 59 years at Stage II do not have 10-year EM if they follow the prescribed ET regimen. This result calls for developing interventions to promote adherence to ET in patients with hormone receptor-positive BC and in turn improving cancer survival. The presented methodology here demonstrates the potential use of probabilistic graphical modeling for generating reliable synthetic datasets for validating population-based survival indicators when sample size is an issue.