Reflection on modern methods: a common error in the segmented regression parameterization of interrupted time-series analyses

Changing patterns of opioid agonist therapy prescribing in a network of specialised clinics providing care to people with opioid use disorder in Victoria, Australia, 2015 to 2023

INTRODUCTION

Long-acting injectable buprenorphine (LAIB) reduces the frequency of contact with opioid agonist therapy (OAT) service providers. Limited data exist on OAT prescribing in Australia after the introduction of subsidised LAIB prescribing in September 2019. This ecological study describes trends in OAT prescribing between 2015 and 2023 across a network of primary care services in Victoria, Australia.

METHODS

We utilised electronic medical records from 17 clinics in Victoria that provide services to people with opioid dependence to describe OAT prescribing patterns. We described the annual number and type (methadone, buprenorphine, LAIB) of OAT prescriptions issued, individuals prescribed, and individuals initiating OAT. Interrupted time series assessed changes in quarterly OAT prescribing following the introduction of LAIB.

RESULTS

Between 2015 and 2023, the average annual number of OAT prescriptions issued, and the average number of recipients prescribed OAT were 47,648 and 6470, respectively. Between 2020 and 2023, the proportion of individuals initiating on LAIB increased from 7% (73/1078) to 31% (357/1146). There was increasing quarterly OAT prescribing before the introduction of LAIB, after which methadone and buprenorphine prescribing declined by 2.6% (CR 0.974; 95% CI 0.968-0.980) and 3.2% (CR 0.968; 95% CI 0.963-0.973), respectively. After being introduced, quarterly LAIB prescribing increased by 13.1% (CR 1.131; 95% CI 1.096-1.167).

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

We found substantial changes in OAT prescribing patterns in Victoria between 2015 and 2023, with shifts away from oral methadone and sublingual buprenorphine to LAIB. Alongside ongoing monitoring of prescribing patterns, future research should assess how LAIB impacts patient health and social outcomes.

The impact of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic on umbilical cord blood transplantation in Japan: insights from an interrupted time series analysis

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic disrupted healthcare systems worldwide, particularly affecting hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) activities. Understanding the impact of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic on transplant practices, especially in Japan, where cord blood transplantation (CBT) is prevalent, is crucial. A total of 40,444 allogeneic HSCT cases in Japan between 2011 and 2021 were examined using an interrupted time series analysis to assess the impact of COVID-19 on CBT utilization. Following the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, CBT cases demonstrated a significant increase (11.06 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.87 to 20.25] cases per month), whereas bone marrow transplantation cases decreased, by 10.74 cases per month (95% CI, -19.84 to -1.63 cases per month). Total HSCT cases remained stable with a level change of 5.47 cases per month (95% CI, -10.07 to 21.01 cases per month) and a trend change of -1.11 cases per month (95% CI, -2.22 to 0.004 cases per month). The interrupted time series analysis showed significantly increased CBT cases in Japan, highlighting its crucial role as an alternative transplant source during the pandemic. CBT offset the impact of the decrease in bone marrow transplantation and contributed to the maintenance of HSCT activity in Japan during the unprecedented crisis.

Interpretation of coefficients in segmented regression for interrupted time series analyses

BACKGROUND

Segmented regression, a common model for interrupted time series (ITS) analysis, primarily utilizes two equation parametrizations. Interpretations of coefficients vary between the two segmented regression parametrizations, leading to occasional user misinterpretations.

METHODS

To illustrate differences in coefficient interpretation between two common parametrizations of segmented regression in ITS analysis, we derived analytical results and present an illustration evaluating the impact of a smoking regulation policy in Italy using a publicly accessible dataset. Estimated coefficients and their standard errors were obtained using two commonly used parametrizations for segmented regression with continuous outcomes. We clarified coefficient interpretations and intervention effect calculations.

RESULTS

Our investigation revealed that both parametrizations represent the same model. However, due to differences in parametrization, the immediate effect of the intervention is estimated differently under the two approaches. The key difference lies in the interpretation of the coefficient related to the binary indicator for intervention implementation, impacting the calculation of the immediate effect.

CONCLUSIONS

Two common parametrizations of segmented regression represent the same model but have different interpretations of a key coefficient. Researchers employing either parametrization should exercise caution when interpreting coefficients and calculating intervention effects.

Exploring district implementation of national guidelines and maintenance of essential health services during the COVID-19 pandemic in Uganda

Introduction

The effectiveness of national policies in decentralised health systems depends on local-level implementation. This study examines whether variation in implementation of national guidelines across districts and health system functions explains differences in local health system performance in maintaining continuity of essential maternal health, family planning and child vaccination services during the COVID-19 pandemic in Uganda.

Methods

We used routine health data and an interrupted time-series analysis to estimate district-specific relative declines in service outputs during COVID-19 compared with expected volumes if prepandemic trends continued for maternal health, family planning and child vaccination services. We randomly selected 57 districts across 15 regions and measured the implementation of national guidelines for maintaining essential health services through a web-based survey of district health teams. We generated 'implementation summary scores' by health system function and service category, representing the proportion of guidelines reported implemented by districts. We tested associations between implementation scores and performance.

Results

On average, districts (n=42; 74% response rate) reported implementing 58% (95% CI 54-62) of guidelines across health system functions, ranging from 33% (24-41) for 'financing' and 43% (36-49) for 'service delivery' to 93% (89-96) for 'coordination and communication' and 88% (81-94) for 'monitoring'. Districts reported implementing 60% (53-68) of guidelines requiring national government action. District performance in maintaining child vaccination services was positively associated with vaccine-specific 'financing' and 'national government' implementation summary scores after controlling for geography and district characteristics.

Conclusion

Variation in implementing national-level policy across districts indicates inefficiencies or inequities across geographies in Uganda in terms of ability and capacity to respond to emergencies. Local guideline implementation also varied across health system functions, with financing and service delivery-related guidelines having the lowest implementation scores. Future emergency responses should consider how to balance local adaptations with central support by identifying which health system functions districts can more easily manage and adjust independently.

The impact of a comprehensive strategy on HIV treatment continuum in a highly endemic area of China: an interrupted time series analysis

BACKGROUND

A comprehensive strategy encompassing universal testing and strengthened treatment was promoted to address the severe HIV epidemic in Liangshan. This study aimed to assess the impact of this strategy on HIV treatment continuum.

METHODS

Interrupted time series (ITS) analysis was utilized to evaluate the impact of a comprehensive strategy on HIV treatment outcomes in Liangshan from 2014 to 2021 utilizing data from China's HIV/AIDS Comprehensive Response Information Management System (CRIMS). Poisson or quasi-Poisson segmented regression models were applied to estimate the trends and immediate changes in key outcomes, including the proportion of 30-day antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation, the proportion of 6-month follow-up, and the proportion of viral suppression, following the strategy's implementation in January 2018. The analysis was stratified by sex, age, transmission route, and region, with areas classified as key areas and non-key areas based on an HIV prevalence threshold of 1%.

RESULTS

A total of 37,888 people living with HIV (PLHIV) were identified during the study period, with an increase in diagnoses following comprehensive strategy implementation. Most cases involved males, aged 15-34 years, residents of key areas, and individuals infected through heterosexual transmission. There was a significant increase of 2.50-fold in 30-day ART initiation (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 2.501, 95% CI: 1.694-3.694), 34.0% in 6-month follow-up (1.340, 95% CI: 1.234-1.456), and 17.7% in viral suppression (1.177, 95% CI: 1.068-1.296) in the first month of comprehensive strategy implementation. Over time, all three indicators displayed an upward trend, and by December 2021, their predicted values significantly increased, exceeding the expected levels by 60.3% (IRR 1.603, 95% CI: 1.108-2.318), 62.9% (1.629, 95% CI: 1.430-1.855), and 50.6% (1.506, 95% CI: 1.223-1.855), respectively. Subgroup analysis revealed that while the strategy's effects on these outcomes were generally consistent, the magnitude of improvement varied. Residents of key areas exhibited more significant increases in 30-day ART initiation, while residents of non-key areas, particularly those aged ≥ 60 years, displayed smaller increases in the proportion of 6-month follow-up, and no significant change in the proportion of viral suppression, with a slightly lower average.

CONCLUSIONS

The implementation of a comprehensive strategy substantially improved timely ART initiation, follow-up care after ART and viral suppression for PLHIV in Liangshan, with consistent enhancements across various subpopulations. It is imperative to strengthen comprehensive strategy in non-key areas of Liangshan, and to promote these strategies in other similar regions in order to enhance health benefits for patients.

Healthcare utilization in the departments of obstetrics and gynecology during the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic: time series analysis in Jining, China

INTRODUCTION

Healthcare utilization in China decreased precipitously during the initial outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, and women were disproportionately affected. As the COVID-19 pandemic has proven to be far more pervasive and persistent than many first surmised, a vital question is whether the utilization of non-COVID related healthcare has remained low under China's dynamic zero-COVID policy. This study aimed to estimate the initial and enduring collateral effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the utilization of obstetrics and gynecology care at a tertiary hospital in Jining, Shandong Province, China.

METHODS

An interrupted time series analysis was conducted to estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and mobility restrictions on monthly counts of outpatient visits, inpatient admissions, and surgeries in the obstetrics and gynecology departments at a tertiary hospital in Jining, China. Outpatient visits and surgery volume were abstracted from the hospital's monthly healthcare delivery report, while inpatient admissions were obtained from de-identified individual electronic medical records of inpatients admitted between January 1, 2017 to December 31, 2021. Incidence Rate Ratios (IRRs) representing monthly service counts compared with counterfactual counts (had the pandemic not happened) and the volume (number) of patients lost due to the pandemic were estimated.

RESULTS

During the study period, there were a total of 1 181 120 outpatient visits, 89 550 inpatient admissions and 49 056 surgeries in the obstetrics department; and 847 124 outpatient visits, 42 644 inpatient admissions and 39 653 surgeries of these totals occurred in the gynecology department. Compared to the expected estimates had the pandemic not occurred, a 55.4% (95% CI: 52.6-57.9%; p < 0.001), 31.1% (95% CI: 27.2 - 34.7%; p < 0.001), and 27.6% (95% CI: 23.2- 31.8%; p < 0.001) decrease was observed in obstetric outpatient visits, inpatient admissions, and surgeries, respectively in the month of February 2020 when the lockdown was enforced; and a 87.4% (95% CI: 86.0 - 88.4%; p < 0.001), 74.6% (95% CI: 71.0 -79.2%; p < 0.001), and 75.5% (95% CI: 70.9 - 77.8%; p < 0.001) decrease was observed in gynecologic outpatient visits, inpatient admissions, and surgeries, respectively. As of December 2021, outpatient (IRR = 0.86; 95% CI: 0.80-0.94; p < 0.001), surgery (IRR = 0.88; 95% CI: 0.82-0.95; p < 0.001), and inpatient (IRR = 0.73; 95% CI: 0.68-0.79; p < 0.0001) services in the obstetrics department, and outpatient visits (IRR = 0.90; 95% CI: 0.82-0.89; p = 0.007) in the gynecology department had not fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels. Rural residents experienced a larger immediate decrease in inpatient care utilization in both obstetrics and gynecology in the month of February 2020, and the return to pre-pandemic levels in care utilization was also slower than that of urban residents.

CONCLUSIONS

The COVID-19 pandemic led to sizable disruptions in routine delivery and utilization of obstetrics and gynecology care. Disruptions were particularly substantial during the initial wave of the outbreak, and full recovery to pre-pandemic levels has not yet been achieved. The impact was more dramatic for women from rural areas, highlighting the need for policies and programs that address inequities in pandemic response and preparedness.

Substantial underdiagnosis and underreporting: changes in reported HIV and AIDS cases in 31 provinces in China at the beginning of COVID-19

Background China implemented extensive non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to contain COVID-19. Methods National and provincial data on monthly reported HIV and AIDS cases from January 2017 to December 2020 were collected from the National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China. We used interrupted time series analysis to assess whether COVID-19-related NPIs had an impact on reported HIV and AIDS cases in 31 provinces in China, and estimated underreported numbers of HIV and AIDS cases in the first month of the COVID-19 pandemic. Results A total of 393,357 HIV cases and 254,735 AIDS cases were recorded in China from January 2017 to December 2020. Nationally, the number of reported HIV cases decreased by 25.1% in the first month of the NPIs period (January 2020) compared with the counterfactual (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.749; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.664-0.845), whereas the number of reported AIDS cases decreased by 36.5% (IRR 0.635, 95% CI 0.543-0.741). An estimated 2208 HIV cases (95% CI 1209-3335) and 1525 AIDS cases (95% CI 927-2233) were underdiagnosed and underreported in the first month of the NPIs in China. The highest numbers of underdiagnosed and underreported HIV cases in the first month of NPIs were estimated in Sichuan (IRR 577, 95% CI 239-978), Guangdong (IRR 185, 95% CI 170-200) and Henan (IRR 170, 95% CI 77-286). Conclusions There was substantial underdiagnosis and underreporting of HIV and AIDS cases during the first month of the COVID-19 pandemic in China and certain provinces. Health departments should consider the specific barriers encountered during the pandemic, such as disrupted healthcare access and resource limitations, and implement targeted strategies to strengthen HIV surveillance and report systems.

Impact of Mobile Health (mHealth) Use by Community Health Workers on the Utilization of Maternity Care in Rural Malawi: A Time Series Analysis

Purpose

Maternal mortality in Malawi is high, with low coverage of maternity care being a contributing factor. To improve maternal health coverage, an Android-based, integrated mobile health (mHealth) app called YendaNafe was introduced to community health workers (CHWs) in the Neno district, rural Malawi. This study evaluates the impact of this app on the uptake of antenatal care (ANC), facility-based births, and postnatal care (PNC), compared to a reference period where CHWs provided the same services without mHealth, using the interrupted time series analysis.

Patients and Methods

Using aggregated monthly data and segmented quasi-Poisson regression models, we compared the effects of mHealth on selected maternal health outcomes. The models were adjusted for the COVID-19 pandemic, the occurrence of cyclones, and a cholera epidemic. We analyzed data from six eligible health facilities and their respective catchment areas in which CHWs were using YendaNafe, and compared 12 months before and 12 months after its introduction.

Results

The use of YendaNafe was associated with a 22% immediate increase in facility-based births (aIRR 1.22, 95% CI 1.12-1.33, p<0.001) but not an immediate increase in new ANC visits (aIRR 1.02,95% CI 0.90-1.14, p=0.77), ANC in the first trimester (aIRR 1.17, 95% CI 0.95-1.45 p=0.13), or PNC visits (aIRR 1.03, 95% CI 0.79-1.36, p=0.81). For long-term effect, YendaNafe was associated with an increase in new ANC visits (aIRR 1.04, 95% CI 1.01-1.07, p <0.01) and ANC in the first trimester (aIRR 1.03,95% CI 1.00-1.07 p=0.046), but not facility-based births (aIRR 1.01, 95% CI 0.99-1.03, p=0.46) or PNC (aIRR 0.97 95% CI 0.93-1.01, p=0.14).

Conclusion

mHealth shows potential of increasing utilization of new ANC visits, ANC in the first trimester and facility-based births. Further research is needed to understand why mHealth did not have an effect on PNC.

The association between the health promotion levy and employment in South Africa: an interrupted time series analysis

BACKGROUND

The production and consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) have been increasing over the past years, globally. However, there is overwhelming evidence linking SSBs to the rising prevalence in obesity and its comorbidities. In South Africa, the prevalence of overweight and obesity is high and is among the highest in Sub-Saharan Africa. In response to rising prevalence in obesity and its comorbidities, on 1 April 2018 the South African government introduced an SSB tax, known as the Health Promotion Levy (HPL). However, the levy has been opposed by the sugar industry, claiming that it leads to jobs losses. Against this backdrop, this study seeks to investigate the association between the HPL and employment in the sugar industry.

METHODS

We employed single-group interrupted time series analyses using the Quarterly Labour Force Survey data from Statistics South Africa.

RESULTS

Our results show that the HPL has not been associated with job losses (or generation) in the sugar-related industries in South Africa. These findings are consistent with the findings on the effects of SSB taxes on employment in other jurisdictions.

CONCLUSIONS

Considering that the HPL does not impede employment, and the overwhelming evidence on the effectiveness of SSB taxes, together with the relatively low tax burden, it is imperative that the government raises the HPL from the current 8% of the retail price to the WHO-recommended 20% threshold. The government should also consider expanding the HPL to fruit juices. Such strategies are important in encouraging people to reduce the intake of SSBs, while enabling the government to raise additional revenue for the fiscus.

Examining the Potential Impact of Recreational Cannabis Legalization on Individuals Receiving Treatment for Substance Use Disorder: An Interrupted Time Series Study in Guelph, Ontario, Canada

Objective

The present research evaluated the impact of legalizing recreational cannabis among individuals with substance use disorders (SUDs) who may already use cannabis at high rates.

Method

Using an interrupted time series study design, we evaluated the potential impact of legalizing recreational cannabis among individuals seeking treatment for SUD within a hospital-based treatment setting in Guelph, Ontario. We examined 2,925 individuals who entered an inpatient SUD treatment program between April 2017 and December 2021. We performed segmented regression analyses using both the date of cannabis legalization and the date of edibles legalization as the interruption time point. We also performed stratified analyses to examine potential sex differences.

Results

We found no significant changes in the frequency of cannabis use using either of the interruption time points. However, among the subsample who had used cannabis, there was evidence of increasing CUD severity post-legalization of edibles, as well as an overall decreasing trend in readiness to quit over time. Stratified analyses also suggested possible sex differences in frequency of cannabis use, CUD severity, and readiness to quit.

Conclusions

Results point to some small but potentially important impacts of recreational cannabis legalization that may only continue with time. Nevertheless, there is a need to continue to monitor cannabis use trends over time to understand any potential lagged effects.

Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Home Medical Care Utilization in Japan: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic affected healthcare utilization worldwide, but changes in home medical care utilization have not been fully revealed.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to clarify the changes in the use of home medical care services in Japan due to the pandemic.

DESIGN

Interrupted time series analysis of national medical claims data.

PARTICIPANTS

Individuals with home medical care use occurring in Japan between April 2019 and March 2022.

INTERVENTIONS

The declaration of a state of emergency (April 2020) by the Japanese government.

MAIN MEASURES

The outcomes were the monthly uses of regular home visits, emergency house calls, terminal care, and in-home deaths. Terminal care was stratified by care setting (home or nursing home) and the type of home medical care facilities (enhanced home care support clinics and hospitals (HCSCs), conventional HCSCs, and general clinics and hospitals).

KEY RESULTS

Regular home visits showed no significant change, but emergency house calls exhibited an upward trend (1258 uses/month, 95% CI 43 to 2473). Both terminal care and in-home deaths experienced an immediate increase in level (1116 uses/month, 95% CI 549 to 1683; 1459 uses/month, 95% CI 612 to 2307), followed by a gradual increase in trend (141 uses/month, 95% CI 73 to 209; 215 uses/month, 95% CI 114 to 317). The immediate increase of terminal care occurred only for home patients. Enhanced HCSCs showed the most prominent increase in both level and trend, followed by conventional HCSCs, and general clinics and hospitals.

CONCLUSIONS

The COVID-19 pandemic increased the use of emergency house calls and terminal care among home medical care in Japan, particularly for home patients and enhanced HCSCs. These findings suggest that the pandemic revitalized the importance of home medical care as a patient-centered care delivery model and highlight the need for strategic healthcare planning and home medical care resource allocation to anticipate future pandemics.

Sociodemographic differences in the response to changes in COVID-19 testing guidelines

During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, Sweden emphasized voluntary guidelines over mandates. We exploited a rapid change and reversal of the Public Health Agency of Sweden's COVID-19 testing guidelines for vaccinated and recently infected individuals as a quasi-experiment to examine sociodemographic differences in the response to changes in pandemic guidelines. We analyzed daily polymerase chain reaction tests from 1 October 2021 to 15 December 2021, for vaccinated or recently infected adults (≥20 years; n = 1 596 321) from three Swedish regions (Stockholm, Örebro, and Dalarna). Using interrupted time series analysis, we estimated abrupt changes in testing rates at the two dates when the guidelines were changed (1 November and 22 November). Stratified analysis and meta-regression were employed to explore sociodemographic differences in the strength of the response to the guideline changes. Testing rates declined substantially when guideline against testing of vaccinated and recently infected individuals came into effect on 1 November [testing rate ratio: 0.50 (95% confidence interval, CI 0.41, 0.61)], and increased again from these lowered levels by a similar amount upon its reversal on 22 November [testing rate ratio: 2.19 (95% CI: 1.69, 2.85)]. Being Sweden-born, having higher household income, or higher education, were all associated with a stronger adherent response to the guideline changes. Adjusting for stratum-specific baseline testing rates and test-positivity did not influence the results. Our findings suggest that the population was responsive to the rapid changes in testing guidelines, but with clear sociodemographic differences in the strength of the response.

Staggered interventions with no control groups

The limitations of the two-way fixed effects for the impact evaluation of interventions that occur at different times for each group have meant that 'staggered interventions' have been highlighted in recent years in the econometric literature and, more recently, in epidemiology. Although many alternative strategies (such as staggered difference-in-differences) have been proposed, the focus has predominantly been on scenarios in which one or more control groups are available. However, control groups are often unavailable, due to limitations in the available data or because all units eventually receive the intervention. In this context, interrupted time series (ITS) designs can constitute an appropriate alternative. The extent to which common model specifications for ITS analyses are limited in the case of staggered interventions remains an underexplored area in the methodological literature. In this work, we aim to demonstrate that standard ITS model specifications typically yield biased results for staggered interventions and we propose alternative model specifications that were inspired by recent developments in the difference-in-differences literature to propose adapted analytical strategies.

Impact of Broadening Trial Eligibility Criteria on the Inclusion of Patients With Brain Metastases in Cancer Clinical Trials: Time Series Analyses for 2012-2022

PURPOSE

In October 2017, an ASCO, Friends of Cancer Research (FoCR), and US Food and Drug Administration (ASCO/FoCR/FDA) task force recommended that common eligibility criteria be modified to make trials more inclusive. We examined whether patterns of exclusions regarding patients with brain metastases changed over time in relation to these recommendations.

METHODS

Trial eligibility criteria were abstracted from ClinicalTrials.gov for phase I-III US-based interventional clinical trials for patients with advanced breast, colorectal, lung, or melanoma cancers from January 2012 to December 2022. Trials were examined to determine whether patients with brain metastases were not excluded, conditionally excluded (ie, excluded in some circumstances), or wholly excluded. An interrupted time series analysis with multinomial logistic regression was used to determine whether the ASCO/FoCR/FDA recommendations were associated with changes in brain metastases criteria.

RESULTS

We evaluated N = 3,077 trials. Patients with brain metastases were not excluded in 506 trials (16.4%), conditionally excluded in 2,263 trials (73.5%), and wholly excluded in 308 trials (10.0%). In the postrecommendation period, we estimated a 68% increase in the odds of brain metastases not excluded compared with conditionally excluded (odds ratio, 1.68 [95% CI, 1.06 to 2.66], P = .03). The proportion of trials in which patients with brain metastases were not excluded increased (from 11.5% v 17.3%) and conditionally excluded decreased (from 82.3% to 75.2%, P = .03). We found no difference in the proportion of trials in which patients with brain metastases were wholly excluded (7.5% v 6.2%, P = .42).

CONCLUSION

The ASCO/FoCR/FDA task force recommendations were associated with a shift in patterns of brain metastases exclusion criteria from conditionally excluded to not excluded. These findings demonstrate that the cancer clinical trial community has begun to change the way trials are written to be more inclusive.

Trends in falls among older adults before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in Ontario, Canada: A retrospective observational study

BACKGROUND

The public health measures associated with the COVID-19 pandemic may have indirectly impacted other health outcomes, such as falls among older adults. The purpose of this study was to examine trends in fall-related hospitalizations and emergency department visits among older adults before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in Ontario, Canada.

METHODS

We obtained fall-related hospitalizations (N = 301,945) and emergency department visit (N = 1,150,829) data from the Canadian Institute for Health Information databases from 2015 to 2022 for adults ages 65 and older in Ontario. Fall-related injuries were obtained using International Classification of Diseases, 10th edition, Canada codes. An interrupted time series analysis was used to model the change in weekly fall-related hospitalizations and emergency department visits before (January 6, 2015-March 16, 2020) and during (March 17, 2020-December 26, 2022) the pandemic.

RESULTS

After adjusting for seasonality and population changes, an 8% decrease in fall-related hospitalizations [Relative Rate (RR) = 0.92, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.85, 1.00] and a 23% decrease in fall-related emergency department visits (RR = 0.77, 95%CI: 0.59, 1.00) were observed immediately following the onset of the pandemic, followed by increasing trends during the pandemic for both outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Following an abrupt decrease in hospitalizations and emergency department visits immediately following the onset of the pandemic, fall-related hospitalizations and emergency department visits have been increasing steadily and are approaching pre-pandemic levels. Further research exploring the factors contributing to these trends may inform future policies for public health emergencies that balance limiting the spread of disease among this population while supporting the physical, psychological, and social needs of this vulnerable group.

Speed limits and their effect on air pollution in Mexico City: A quasi-experimental study

Speed limits are an evidence-based intervention to prevent traffic collisions and deaths, yet their impact on air pollution in cities is understudied. The objective of this study was to investigate the association between lower speed limits and air pollution. We leverage the introduction of a new road safety policy in Mexico City in December 2015 which lowered speed limits, increased fines, and installed speed radars to enforce compliance. We tested whether the policy had an impact on particulate matter (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) at the city level, and whether air-quality monitoring stations' proximity to speed radars moderated this effect due to more acceleration and deceleration around radars. NO2 and PM2.5 concentrations from January 2014 to December 2018 were obtained from the National System of Air Quality Information. Air-quality monitoring stations were classified as in close-proximity or far-from-speed radars. Interrupted time series analyses were conducted for each outcome separately, using linear mixed models and adjusting for seasonality and time-varying confounders: registered vehicles, temperature, wind-speed and relative humidity. The results suggest improvement in both contaminants after the speed limits policy. For NO2, the pre-policy trend was flat, while the post-policy trend showed a decline in concentrations of 0.04 ppb/week. For PM2.5, concentrations were increasing pre-policy by 0.08 μg/m3 per week, then this trend flattened in the post-policy period to a weekly, non-significant, increase of 0.03 μg/m3 (p = 0.08). Air-quality monitors' proximity to speed radars did not moderate the effect of the policy on either of the pollutants. In conclusion, the speed limits policy implemented in Mexico City in 2015 was associated with improvements in air pollution.

The acute care burden of asthma in children was profoundly reduced during the COVID-19 pandemic: A multi-centre Canadian retrospective study

Objectives

Asthma is a chronic lung condition that can be exacerbated when triggered by viruses. Pandemic public health restrictions aimed to reduce COVID-19 transmission indirectly effected other circulating viruses. This study assessed the impact of the pandemic and associated public health measures on acute paediatric asthma across four tertiary sites in three Canadian provinces. We queried whether pandemic-related changes would impair preventive care and delay presentation to care, increasing asthma exacerbation severity.

Methods

This retrospective study compared the frequency of acute care access and severity of presentation to emergency departments (ED) for acute asthma to four tertiary care children's hospitals during the COVID-19 pandemic (from March 17, 2020 to June 30, 2021) to a pre-lockdown control period (July 1, 2018 to March 16, 2020). Data was subjected to interrupted time series and Chi-square analysis.

Results

Our study included 26,316 acute asthma visits to ED. Sites experienced a 63% to 89% reduction in acute asthma visits during the pandemic, compared with pre-lockdown controls, and a 17% to 85% reduction in asthma, that is out of proportion as a fraction of all-cause ED visits. For asthma, there was no difference in severity measured by rate of ward admission or rate of Paediatric Intensive Care Unit (PICU) admission.

Conclusions

Public health measures appear to have resulted in a specific protective association on acute asthma with reduced acute care utilization over and above the reduction in all-cause presentations, without an increase in severity upon presentation. Our study indicates an importance to antiviral public health and engineering strategies to reduce viral transmission and thereby asthma morbidity.

Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on depression incidence and healthcare service use among patients with depression: an interrupted time-series analysis from a 9-year population-based study

BACKGROUND

Most studies on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on depression burden focused on the earlier pandemic phase specific to lockdowns, but the longer-term impact of the pandemic is less well-studied. In this population-based cohort study, we examined the short-term and long-term impacts of COVID-19 on depression incidence and healthcare service use among patients with depression.

METHODS

Using the territory-wide electronic medical records in Hong Kong, we identified all patients aged ≥ 10 years with new diagnoses of depression from 2014 to 2022. We performed an interrupted time-series (ITS) analysis to examine changes in incidence of medically attended depression before and during the pandemic. We then divided all patients into nine cohorts based on year of depression incidence and studied their initial and ongoing service use patterns until the end of 2022. We applied generalized linear modeling to compare the rates of healthcare service use in the year of diagnosis between patients newly diagnosed before and during the pandemic. A separate ITS analysis explored the pandemic impact on the ongoing service use among prevalent patients with depression.

RESULTS

We found an immediate increase in depression incidence (RR = 1.21, 95% CI: 1.10-1.33, p < 0.001) in the population after the pandemic began with non-significant slope change, suggesting a sustained effect until the end of 2022. Subgroup analysis showed that the increases in incidence were significant among adults and the older population, but not adolescents. Depression patients newly diagnosed during the pandemic used 11% fewer resources than the pre-pandemic patients in the first diagnosis year. Pre-existing depression patients also had an immediate decrease of 16% in overall all-cause service use since the pandemic, with a positive slope change indicating a gradual rebound over a 3-year period.

CONCLUSIONS

During the pandemic, service provision for depression was suboptimal in the face of increased demand generated by the increasing depression incidence during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings indicate the need to improve mental health resource planning preparedness for future public health crises.

Laboratory Data Timeliness and Completeness Improves Following Implementation of an Electronic Laboratory Information System in Côte d'Ivoire: Quasi-Experimental Study on 21 Clinical Laboratories From 2014 to 2020

BACKGROUND

The Ministry of Health in Côte d'Ivoire and the International Training and Education Center for Health at the University of Washington, funded by the United States President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, have been collaborating to develop and implement the Open-Source Enterprise-Level Laboratory Information System (OpenELIS). The system is designed to improve HIV-related laboratory data management and strengthen quality management and capacity at clinical laboratories across the nation.

OBJECTIVE

This evaluation aimed to quantify the effects of implementing OpenELIS on data quality for laboratory tests related to HIV care and treatment.

METHODS

This evaluation used a quasi-experimental design to perform an interrupted time-series analysis to estimate the changes in the level and slope of 3 data quality indicators (timeliness, completeness, and validity) after OpenELIS implementation. We collected paper and electronic records on clusters of differentiation 4 (CD4) testing for 48 weeks before OpenELIS adoption until 72 weeks after. Data collection took place at 21 laboratories in 13 health regions that started using OpenELIS between 2014 and 2020. We analyzed the data at the laboratory level. We estimated odds ratios (ORs) by comparing the observed outcomes with modeled counterfactual ones when the laboratories did not adopt OpenELIS.

RESULTS

There was an immediate 5-fold increase in timeliness (OR 5.27, 95% CI 4.33-6.41; P<.001) and an immediate 3.6-fold increase in completeness (OR 3.59, 95% CI 2.40-5.37; P<.001). These immediate improvements were observed starting after OpenELIS installation and then maintained until 72 weeks after OpenELIS adoption. The weekly improvement in the postimplementation trend of completeness was significant (OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.02-1.05; P<.001). The improvement in validity was not statistically significant (OR 1.34, 95% CI 0.69-2.60; P=.38), but validity did not fall below pre-OpenELIS levels.

CONCLUSIONS

These results demonstrate the value of electronic laboratory information systems in improving laboratory data quality and supporting evidence-based decision-making in health care. These findings highlight the importance of OpenELIS in Côte d'Ivoire and the potential for adoption in other low- and middle-income countries with similar health systems.

Design and statistical analysis reporting among interrupted time series studies in drug utilization research: a cross-sectional survey

INTRODUCTION

Interrupted time series (ITS) design is a commonly used method for evaluating large-scale interventions in clinical practice or public health. However, improperly using this method can lead to biased results.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate design and statistical analysis characteristics of drug utilization studies using ITS design, and give recommendations for improvements.

METHODS

A literature search was conducted based on PubMed from January 2021 to December 2021. We included original articles that used ITS design to investigate drug utilization without restriction on study population or outcome types. A structured, pilot-tested questionnaire was developed to extract information regarding study characteristics and details about design and statistical analysis.

RESULTS

We included 153 eligible studies. Among those, 28.1% (43/153) clearly explained the rationale for using the ITS design and 13.7% (21/153) clarified the rationale of using the specified ITS model structure. One hundred and forty-nine studies used aggregated data to do ITS analysis, and 20.8% (31/149) clarified the rationale for the number of time points. The consideration of autocorrelation, non-stationary and seasonality was often lacking among those studies, and only 14 studies mentioned all of three methodological issues. Missing data was mentioned in 31 studies. Only 39.22% (60/153) reported the regression models, while 15 studies gave the incorrect interpretation of level change due to time parameterization. Time-varying participant characteristics were considered in 24 studies. In 97 studies containing hierarchical data, 23 studies clarified the heterogeneity among clusters and used statistical methods to address this issue.

CONCLUSION

The quality of design and statistical analyses in ITS studies for drug utilization remains unsatisfactory. Three emerging methodological issues warranted particular attention, including incorrect interpretation of level change due to time parameterization, time-varying participant characteristics and hierarchical data analysis. We offered specific recommendations about the design, analysis and reporting of the ITS study.

Evaluating the impact of minimum unit pricing for alcohol on road traffic accidents in Scotland after 20 months: An interrupted time series study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

On 1 May 2018, Scotland implemented Minimum Unit Pricing (MUP) of £0.50 per unit of alcohol with the aim to lower alcohol consumption and related harms, and reduce health inequalities. We measured the impact of MUP on the most likely categories of road traffic accidents (RTAs) to be affected by drink-driving episodes (fatal and nighttime) up to 20 months after the policy implementation. Further, we checked whether any association varied by level of socio-economic deprivation.

METHODS

An interrupted time series design was used to evaluate the impact of MUP on fatal and nighttime RTAs in Scotland and any effect modification across socio-economic deprivation groups. RTAs in England and Wales (E&W) were used as a comparator. Covariates representing severe weather events, bank holidays, seasonal and underlying trends were adjusted for.

RESULTS

In Scotland, MUP implementation was associated with 40.5% (95% confidence interval: 15.5%, 65.4%) and 11.4% (-1.1%, 24.0%) increases in fatal and nighttime RTAs, respectively. There was no evidence of differential impacts of MUP by level of socio-economic deprivation. While we found a substantial increase in fatal RTAs associated with MUP, null effects observed in nighttime RTAs and high uncertainty in sensitivity analyses suggest caution be applied before attributing causation to this association.

CONCLUSION

There is no evidence of an association between the introduction of minimum unit pricing for alcohol in Scotland and a reduction in fatal and nighttime road traffic accidents, these being outcome measure categories that are proxies of outcomes that directly relate alcohol consumption to road traffic accidents.

Interruptions in HIV and Behavioral Health Care for Criminal-Legal Involved People Living with HIV Following Implementation of Decarceration and Shelter in Place in San Francisco, California

Decarceration policies, enacted for SARS-CoV-2 mitigation in carceral settings, potentially exacerbated barriers to care for people living with HIV (PWH) with criminal legal involvement (CLI) during Shelter-in-Place (SIP) by limiting opportunities for engagement in provisions of HIV and behavioral health care. We compared health care engagement for PWH with CLI in San Francisco, California before and after decarceration and SIP using interrupted time series analyses. Administrative data identified PWH booked at the San Francisco County Jail with at least one clinic encounter from 01/01/2018-03/31/2020 within the municipal health care network. Monthly proportions of HIV, substance use, psychiatric and acute care encounters before (05/01/2019-02/29/2020) and after (03/01/2020-12/31/2020) SIP and decarceration were compared using Generalized Estimating Equation (GEE) log-binomial and logistic regression models, clustering on the patient-level. Of 436 patients, mean age was 43 years (standard-deviation 11); 88% cisgender-male; 39% white, 66% homeless; 67% had trimorbidity by Elixhauser score (medical comorbidity, psychotic disorder or depression, and substance use disorder). Clinical encounters immediately dropped following SIP for HIV (aOR = 0.77; 95% CI: 0.67, 0.90) and substance use visits (aRR = 0.83; 95% CI: 0.70, 0.99) and declined in subsequent months. Differential reductions in clinical encounters were seen among Black/African Americans (aRR = 0.93; 95% CI: 0.88, 0.99) and people experiencing homelessness (aRR = 0.92; 95% CI: 0.87, 0.98). Significant reductions in care were observed for PWH with CLI during the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly among Black/African Americans and people experiencing homelessness. Strategies to End the HIV Epidemic must improve engagement across diverse care settings to improve outcomes for this key population.

A Comprehensive Analysis of the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Lung Cancer in Delaware

Background

COVID-19 has greatly impacted the U.S. health system. What is not as well-understood is how this has altered specific aspects of lung cancer care. While cancer incidence and screening have been affected, it is not known whether pre-existing racial and socioeconomic disparities worsened or if treatment standards changed. The purpose of this study is to provide a comprehensive analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on lung cancer in the state of Delaware.

Methods

Health care claims were analyzed from the Delaware Healthcare Claims Database for the years 2019-2020. Patients with a new lung cancer diagnosis and those who had undergone lung cancer screening were identified. Demographic and socioeconomic variables including gender, age, race, and insurance were studied. Patients were analyzed for type of treatment by CPT code. The intervention of interest in this study was the institution of restrictions at the end of March 2020. An interrupted time series analysis (ITSA) was utilized to evaluate baseline levels and overall trend changes.

Results

The incidence of lung cancer diagnoses and lung cancer screenings decreased in the nine-month time period after the initiation of COVID-19 lockdowns. Demographic and socioeconomic variables including gender, race, income, and education level were not affected; however, statistical differences were seen in the most elderly subgroup. Treatment modalities including number of surgeries, chemotherapy, and radiation therapy did not change significantly.

Conclusions

COVID-19 has had a significant impact on lung cancer care within the state of Delaware. Lung cancer incidence, screenings, and elderly patients were affected the most.

The Effectiveness of National Expanded Program on Immunization With Hepatitis A Vaccines in the Chinese Mainland: Interrupted Time-Series Analysis

BACKGROUND

The high prevalence of hepatitis A delivered a blow to public health decades ago. The World Health Organization (WHO) set a goal to eliminate viral hepatitis including hepatitis A by 2030. In 2008, hepatitis A vaccines were integrated into the Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI) in China to alleviate the burden of hepatitis A, although the effectiveness of the EPI has not been well investigated.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to evaluate the intervention effect at both provincial and national levels on the incidence of hepatitis A in the Chinese mainland from 2005 to 2019.

METHODS

Based on the monthly reported number of hepatitis A cases from 2005 to 2019 in each provincial-level administrative division, we adopted generalized additive models with an interrupted time-series design to estimate province-specific effects of the EPI on the incidence of hepatitis A among the target population (children aged 2-9 years) from 2005 to 2019. We then pooled province-specific effect estimates using random-effects meta-analyses. We also assessed the effect among the nontarget population and the whole population.

RESULTS

A total of 98,275 hepatitis A cases among children aged 2-9 years were reported in the Chinese mainland from 2005 to 2019, with an average annual incidence of 5.33 cases per 100,000 persons. Nationally, the EPI decreased the hepatitis A incidence by 80.77% (excess risk [ER] -80.77%, 95% CI -85.86% to -72.92%) during the study period, guarding an annual average of 28.52 (95% empirical CI [eCI] 27.37-29.00) cases per 100,000 persons among the target children against hepatitis A. Western China saw a more significant effect of the EPI on the decrease in the incidence of hepatitis A among the target children. A greater number of target children were protected from onset in Northwest and Southwest China, with an excess incidence rate of -129.72 (95% eCI -135.67 to -117.86) and -66.61 (95% eCI -67.63 to -64.22) cases per 100,000 persons on average, respectively. Intervention effects among nontarget (ER -32.88%, 95% CI -39.76% to -25.21%) and whole populations (ER -31.97%, 95% CI -39.61% to -23.37%) were relatively small.

CONCLUSIONS

The EPI has presented a lasting positive effect on the containment of hepatitis A in the target population in China. The EPI's effect on the target children also provided a degree of indirect protection for unvaccinated individuals. The continuous surveillance of hepatitis A and the maintenance of mass vaccination should shore up the accomplishment in the decline of hepatitis A incidence to ultimately achieve the goal set by the WHO.

Interpretation of coefficients in segmented regression for interrupted time series analyses

Background

Segmented regression, a common model for interrupted time series (ITS) analysis, primarily utilizes two equation parametrizations. Interpretations of coefficients vary between the two segmented regression parametrizations, leading to occasional user misinterpretations.

Methods

To illustrate differences in coefficient interpretation between two common parametrizations of segmented regression in ITS analysis, we derived analytical results and present an illustration evaluating the impact of a smoking regulation policy in Italy using a publicly accessible dataset. Estimated coefficients and their standard errors were obtained using two commonly used parametrizations for segmented regression with continuous outcomes. We clarified coefficient interpretations and intervention effect calculations.

Results

Our investigation revealed that both parametrizations represent the same model. However, due to differences in parametrization, the immediate effect of the intervention is estimated differently under the two approaches. The key difference lies in the interpretation of the coefficient related to the binary indicator for intervention implementation, impacting the calculation of the immediate effect.

Conclusions

Two common parametrizations of segmented regression represent the same model but have different interpretations of a key coefficient. Researchers employing either parametrization should exercise caution when interpreting coefficients and calculating intervention effects.

Declines in Physical Activity and Cardiorespiratory Fitness After Implementing new National School Guidelines

PURPOSE

We examined whether introduction of national guidelines limiting sports club activities at school was associated with adolescents' exercise and cardiorespiratory fitness.

METHODS

We conducted interrupted time-series analysis to quantify the changes in prefecture-level aggregated data on exercise or sports activities and 20-m shuttle run (indicator of cardiorespiratory fitness) among adolescents in Japan before (2013-2017) and after (2018-2022) the introduction of the guidelines using data from the National Survey of Physical Fitness, Athletic Performance and Exercise Habits.

RESULTS

The introduction of the guidelines was associated with reductions in exercise and sports activities duration (boys, -4.8 [95% CI -5.9, -3.8] min/day; girls, -5.5 [95% CI -6.2, -4.8] min/day) and performance of 20-m shuttle run (boys, -1.2 [95% CI -1.4, -1.0] laps; girls, -2.3 [95% CI -2.5, -2.2] laps).

DISCUSSION

After introducing guidelines limiting sports club activities at school, levels of exercise or sports and cardiorespiratory fitness declined among adolescents.

Changes in surgery rates among hospitalized patients with inflammatory bowel disease in Japan from 2015 to 2019: A nationwide administrative database analysis

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Treatment of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), consisting of ulcerative colitis (UC) and Crohn's disease (CD), has advanced with the application of biologics or Janus kinase inhibitor (JAKi); however, some patients still need surgery. We assessed time trends of surgery and biologics or JAKi variety in Japan.

METHODS

Patients hospitalized due to IBD were analyzed using Diagnosis Procedure Combination data between 2015 and 2019. Longitudinal trend analysis was performed for demographics, and interrupted time-series analysis was performed to examine the association between surgery rates and an increase in the types of biologics or JAKi.

RESULTS

Totally, 37 867 cases with UC and 35 493 cases with CD were analyzed. Over 5 years, the surgery rate decreased in both UC and CD. The proportion of biologics and JAKi usage increased in UC and stabilized in CD. Between decreasing surgery and expanding treatment options of biologic or JAKi, interrupted time-series analysis results showed no significant correlation (level change in UC, -1.13, 95% confidence interval [CI]: -2.11 to -0.16, P = 0.0235; slope change in UC, -0.05, 95% CI: -0.26 to 0.16, P = 0.6372; level change in CD, -0.55, 95% CI: -1.82 to 0.71, P = 0.3815; slope change in CD, -0.22, 95% CI: -0.63 to 0.19, P = 0.2892).

CONCLUSIONS

In Japan, from 2015 to 2019, the use of biologics or JAKi increased for UC and slightly decreased for CD, while the number of surgeries decreased in both. Our findings suggest that more widespread use of biologics or JAKi therapy could reduce surgeries in patients with IBD.

Counts and child protection reports of diagnosed child maltreatment before and after the COVID-19 pandemic onset

BACKGROUND

Mechanisms for reporting child maltreatment (CM) were affected by changes in service provision immediately following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.

OBJECTIVE

To examine changes in counts and CPS reporting of CM medical encounters before and after the onset of COVID-19.

PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING

All emergency department and inpatient medical encounters with at least one CM diagnosis during the study period at Rady Children's Hospital San Diego, the largest pediatric hospital in California between 2016 and November 2021.

METHODS

Using linked medical record and CPS administrative data, interrupted time series models tested for changes in monthly counts and percentages of CM medical encounters reported to CPS with the onset of COVID-19. Logistic regression tested for the likelihood of a CPS report being associated with a CM encounter.

RESULTS

CM medical encounters totaled 2528, including 793 after the onset of COVID-19. Interrupted time series models indicated with the onset of the pandemic, the counts of CM encounters increased 18 % (RR: 1.18, 95 % CI 1.03-1.34) and the percentages reported to CPS increased 10 % (RR: 1.10, 95 % CI: 1.05-1.17). CM encounters that occurred after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic had increased odds of a CPS report (fully adjusted model: OR: 1.08; 95 % CI: 1.05-1.12).

CONCLUSIONS

This study found increases in monthly counts and a higher percentage of CM medical encounters with CPS reports after the pandemic onset.

Trends and Prescriber Variation in the Duration of Oxaliplatin-Containing Adjuvant Chemotherapy for Stage III Colon Cancer From 2007 to 2019: A Population-Based Retrospective Cohort Study

INTRODUCTION

The International Duration Evaluation of Adjuvant Therapy (IDEA) collaboration in 2017 established 3 months of adjuvant therapy as an alternative to 6 months of therapy for stage III colon cancer. We determined the association between the IDEA publication, changes in clinical practice, and prescriber variation.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Using linked databases, we identified Ontarians aged ≥18 years at diagnosis of stage III colon cancer between 2007 and 2019 who received oxaliplatin-containing adjuvant therapy. The outcome was duration of therapy, categorized as ≤25%, >25% to ≤50%, >50% to ≤75%, and >75% of a 6-month course of therapy to approximate treatment durations in the IDEA collaboration. We examined trends in duration over time using an interrupted time series regression model. We analyzed treatment duration after accounting for patient and prescriber characteristics, using multivariable mixed effects logistic regression models to quantify between-prescriber variation.

RESULTS

We included 4695 patients with stage III colon cancer who received oxaliplatin-containing adjuvant chemotherapy, of whom 77.5% initiated treatment pre-IDEA and 22.5% initiated treatment post-IDEA. Post-IDEA, there was a 16.4% (95% CI, 12.5%-20.3%) absolute increase in the proportion of patients treated with ≤50% of a maximal course of therapy. This trend was greatest among patients with low-risk tumors. Prescriber variation increased pre-IDEA to 15.6% post-IDEA (variance partition coefficient 5.4% pre-IDEA and 15.6% post-IDEA).

CONCLUSION

The publication of IDEA was associated with increases in short duration adjuvant therapy and prescriber-level practice variation for stage III colon cancer. Clinicians should be better supported to make consistent recommendations about adjuvant duration under conditions of uncertainty and trade-offs.

The Impact of COVID-19 on Infant Maltreatment Emergency Department and Inpatient Medical Encounters

OBJECTIVE

To assess the counts of infant maltreatment-related medical encounters at a large medical system during a 21-month span of the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

Retrospective data for this study came from all inpatient and emergency department medical encounters for infants from January 1, 2016, through November 30, 2021, at a single children's hospital system in California. Distributions of medical encounters were tabulated and plotted over time. Interrupted time series models were used to evaluate changes in child maltreatment medical encounters.

RESULTS

Medical encounters for infants with child maltreatment diagnoses increased following the onset of COVID-19. Monthly counts of encounters with indicated maltreatment trended upward following the start of the pandemic. Interrupted time series models showed that the count of maltreatment encounters increased 64% with the onset of COVID-19.

CONCLUSIONS

We found an increase in infant maltreatment medical encounters during a 21-month period following the onset of COVID-19. These findings suggest that the pandemic may have adversely affected the safety of infants and ongoing work is needed to understand better the pandemic impacts on child maltreatment.

Impact of age, race, and family history on COVID-19-related changes in breast cancer screening among the Boston mammography cohort study

PURPOSE

We studied women enrolled in the Boston Mammography Cohort Study to investigate whether subgroups defined by age, race, or family history of breast cancer experienced differences in the incidence of screening or diagnostic imaging rates during the COVID-19 lockdown and had slower rebound in the incidence of these rates during reopening.

METHODS

We compared the incidence of monthly breast cancer screening and diagnostic imaging rates over during the pre-COVID-19 (January 2019-February 2020), lockdown (March-May 2020), and reopening periods (June-December 2020), and tested for differences in the monthly incidence within the same period by age (< 50 vs ≥ 50), race (White vs non-White), and first-degree family history of breast cancer (yes vs no).

RESULTS

Overall, we observed a decline in breast cancer screening and diagnostic imaging rates over the three time periods (pre-COVID-19, lockdown, and reopening). The monthly incidence of breast cancer screening rates for women age ≥ 50 was 5% higher (p = 0.005) in the pre-COVID-19 period (January 2019-February 2020) but was 19% lower in the reopening phase (June-December 2020) than that of women aged < 50 (p < 0.001). White participants had 36% higher monthly incidence of breast cancer diagnostic imaging rates than non-White participants (p = 0.018).

CONCLUSION

The rebound in screening was lower in women age ≥ 50 and lower in non-White women for diagnostic imaging. Careful attention must be paid as the COVID-19 recovery continues to ensure equitable resumption of care.

Dynamic zero-COVID policy and healthcare utilization patterns in China during the Shanghai COVID-19 Omicron outbreak

BACKGROUND

In April 2022, an outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 virus Omicron variant in Shanghai precipitated an extensive lockdown. We assessed changes in healthcare utilization during this outbreak and investigated the relationship between the stringency of mitigation strategies and disruptions in healthcare utilization.

METHODS

Using provincial-level data from routine health information systems covering all hospitals across Mainland China, we conducted an interrupted time series analysis to examine changes in healthcare utilization during the Shanghai outbreak. Linear regression was used to evaluate the direction and magnitude of the association between the relative changes in the move-out movement index, a proxy for the stringency in population-level mitigation strategies, and the estimated relative changes in healthcare utilization.

RESULTS

Overall, there were 22.9 billion outpatient visits and 1.2 billion discharged inpatients during the study period from January 2016 to May 2022, including 9.1 billion (39.7%) and 0.46 billion (38.2%) in the post-COVID-19 period (January 2020-May 2022), respectively. From March through May 2022, the outbreak resulted in an accumulative loss of 23.5 million (47%) outpatient visits and 0.6 million (55%) discharged inpatients in Shanghai, and a loss of 150.3 million (14%) outpatient visits and 3.6 million (7%) discharged inpatients in other regions. We find that for every 10-percentage point reduction in the relative change of move-out index, a 2.7 (95% CI: 2.0-3.4) percentage point decline in the relative change of outpatient visits, and a 4.3 (95% CI: 3.5-5.2) percentage points decline in the relative change of inpatient discharges.

CONCLUSIONS

The Shanghai COVID-19 Omicron outbreak associates with a substantial reduction in outpatient visits and inpatient discharges within Shanghai and other regions in China. The stringency of the COVID-19 lockdown policies associates with more profound reductions in healthcare utilization.

A quasi-experimental study of the volume-based procurement (VBP) effect on antiviral medications of hepatitis B virus in China

Background: The Pilot Plan of National Centralized Volume-Based Procurement (NCVBP) was adopted to cope with the rapid increase in drug expenditures. This research aimed to quantitatively evaluate the impact of the NCVBP on antiviral medications for the hepatitis B virus. Methods: Data on nucleoside analogs (NAs) medications of hepatitis B virus monthly procurement records in the pilot cities from January 2018 to December 2019 were extracted from the China Drug Supply Information Platform (CDSIP). The impacts of the NCVBP on purchased volumes, expenditures, and pre-defined daily dose costs were evaluated by interrupted time-series (ITS) analysis using Stata 16.0. We constructed two segments with one interruptive point (March 2019). Results: Compared to the same period between pre-and post-intervention, the purchased volume of NAs medications were increased by 92.85%, and selected medications were increased by 119.09%. Analysis of changes in the level of NAs medication followed a decrease in purchased expenditure (coefficient: 5364.88, p < 0.001), meanwhile, the purchased volume was increased with statistical significance (coefficient:605.49, p < 0.001). The Defined Daily Dose cost (DDDc) of NAs medication followed a decrease (coefficient: 8.90, p < 0.001). The NCVBP reform was followed by an increase of 618.41 ten thousand Defined Daily Dose (DDD) (p < 0.001) in purchased volume and a reduction of 5273.84 ten thousand Chinese Yuan (CNY) (p < 0.001) in the purchased expenditure of selected medications in the level. The DDDc of selected medications decreased in the level (coefficient: 9.87, p < 0.001), while the DDDc of alternative medications increased in the slope (coefficient:0.07, p = 0.030). The purchased volume and expenditure of bid-winning products increased by 964.08 ten thousand DDD and 637.36 ten thousand CNY in the level (p < 0.001). An increase of 633.46 ten thousand DDD (p < 0.001) in purchased volume and a reduction of 4285.32 ten thousand CNY (p < 0.001) in the purchased expenditure of generic drugs in the level was observed. Conclusion: The NCVBP reduced the DDDc of NAs medication, improved the utilization of the selected medications, and promoted the usage of generic products.

Impact of a double catastrophe, war and COVID-19, on health service utilization of a tertiary care hospital in Tigray: an interrupted time-series study

BACKGROUND

In developing nations with fragile healthcare systems, the effect of war is likely to be much worse than it would be in more developed countries. The presence of COVID-19 will also likely exacerbate the war's impact. This study set out to determine the effect of armed conflict and the COVID-19 pandemic on health service utilization at Ayder Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, in the Tigray region of Ethiopia.

METHODS

An interrupted time-series study design was used to analyze patient visits over forty-eight consecutive months (from July 2017 to June 2021) at inpatient, outpatient, and emergency departments. Data were analyzed using segmented regression analysis with a defined outcome of level and trend changes in the number of patient visits. In addition, negative binomial regression analysis was also used to estimate the impact of both COVID-19 and the war on patient flow.

RESULTS

There were 59,935 admissions, 876,533 outpatient visits, and 127,872 emergency room visits. The effect of COVID-19 was seen as soon as the Tigray regional government imposed comprehensive restrictions. Immediately after COVID-19 appeared, all the service areas exhibited a significant monthly drop in visits; [-35.6% (95% CI: -48.2%, -23.1%)] for inpatient, [-60.6% (95% CI: -71.6%, -49.5%)] for outpatient, and [-44.1% (95% CI: -59.5%, -28.7%)] for emergency department visits. The impact of the war became apparent after a lag time of one month. Controlling the effects of time and COVID-19, the war led to a significant fall in inpatient visits [-44.3% (95% CI: -67.2%, -21.5%)], outpatients [-52.1% (95% CI: -82.7%, -21.5%)], and emergency-room attendances [-45.0% (95% CI: -74.8%, -15.2%)]. An upward trend in outpatient flow was observed after the war [1,219.4 (95% CI: 326.1, 2,112.8)].

CONCLUSIONS

The present study has clearly indicated that the war and COVID-19 have led to a large reduction in admissions, outpatient attendance, and emergency department visits. The evidence from this study suggests that due to this double catastrophe, thousands of patients could not gain access to healthcare, with probable negative consequences. Governments and organizations should implement measures to buttress the healthcare system to maintain pre-war status of service.

Excess All-Cause Mortality in China After Ending the Zero COVID Policy

Importance

In China, the implementation of stringent mitigation measures kept COVID-19 incidence and excess mortality low during the first years of the pandemic. However, China's decision to end its dynamic zero COVID policy (a proactive strategy that deploys mass testing and strict quarantine measures to stamp out any outbreak before it can spread) in December 2022 resulted in a surge in COVID-19 incidence and hospitalizations. Despite worldwide attention given to this event, the actual impact of this sudden shift in policy on population mortality has not been empirically estimated.

Objective

To assess the association of the sudden shift in China's dynamic zero COVID policy with mortality using empirical and syndromic surveillance data.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study analyzed published obituary data from 3 universities in China (2 in Beijing and 1 in Heilongjiang) and search engine data from the Baidu index (BI; weighted frequency of unique searches for a given keyword relative to the total search volume on the Baidu search engine) in each region of China from January 1, 2016, to January 31, 2023. Using an interrupted time-series design, analyses estimated the relative change in mortality among individuals 30 years and older in the universities and the change in BI for mortality-related terms in each region of China from December 2022 to January 2023. Analysis revealed a strong correlation between Baidu searches for mortality-related keywords and actual mortality burden. Using this correlation, the relative increase in mortality in Beijing and Heilongjiang was extrapolated to the rest of China, and region-specific excess mortality was calculated by multiplying the proportional increase in mortality by the number of expected deaths. Data analysis was performed from February 10, 2023, to March 5, 2023.

Exposure

The end to the dynamic zero COVID policy in December 2022 in China.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Monthly all-cause mortality by region.

Results

An estimated 1.87 million (95% CI, 0.71 million-4.43 million; 1.33 per 1000 population) excess deaths occurred among individuals 30 years and older in China during the first 2 months after the end of the zero COVID policy. Excess deaths predominantly occurred among older individuals and were observed across all provinces in mainland China except Tibet.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cohort study of the population in China, the sudden lifting of the zero COVID policy was associated with significant increases in all-cause mortality. These findings provide valuable insights for policy makers and public health experts and are important for understanding how the sudden propagation of COVID-19 across a population may be associated with population mortality.

State Policy Removing the Personal Belief Exemption for Measles, Mumps, and Rubella (MMR) School Immunization Requirement, Washington State, 2014-2022

Objectives. To assess the impact of Washington State's 2019 Engrossed House Bill (EHB) 1638-which removed measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) personal belief exemptions-on MMR vaccine series completion and exemption rates in K-12 students. Methods. We used interrupted time-series analyses to examine changes in MMR vaccine series completion rates before and after EHB 1638 was passed and the χ2 test for differences in exemption rates. Results. EHB 1638 implementation was associated with a 5.4% relative increase in kindergarten MMR vaccine series completion rates (95% confidence interval = 3.8%, 7.1%; P ≤ .001), and results were similar with Oregon as a control state (no change observed in Oregon; P = .68). MMR exemptions overall decreased 41% (from 3.1% in 2018-2019 to 1.8% in 2019-2020; P ≤ .001), and religious exemptions increased 367% (from 0.3% to 1.4%; P ≤ .001). Conclusions. EHB 1638 was associated with an increase in MMR vaccine series completion rates and a decrease in any MMR exemption. However, effects were partially offset by an increase in religious exemption rates. Public Health Implications. Removal of personal belief exemptions for the MMR immunization requirement only may be an effective approach to increase MMR vaccine coverage rates statewide and among underimmunized communities. (Am J Public Health. 2023;113(7):795-804. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2023.307285).

The Impact of Prescribing Monitoring Policy on Drug Use and Expenditures in China: A Multi-center Interrupted Time Series Study

BACKGROUND

A prescribing monitoring policy (PMP) was implemented in November 2015 in Anhui province, China, the first province to pilot this policy to manage the use and costs of select drugs based on their large prescription volumes and/ or costs in hospitals. This study evaluated the impact of PMP on the use and expenditures of different drugs in three tertiary hospitals in Anhui.

METHODS

We obtained monthly drug use and expenditures data from three tertiary hospitals in Anhui (November 2014 through September 2017). An interrupted time series (ITS) design was used to estimate changes in defined daily doses (DDDs per month) and drug expenditures (dollars per month) of policy-targeted and non-targeted drugs after PMP implementation. Drugs were grouped based on whether they were recommended (recommended drugs) by any clinical guidelines or not (non-recommended drugs), or if they were potentially over-used (proton pump inhibitors, PPIs).

RESULTS

After PMP, DDDs and costs of the targeted PPIs (omeprazole) declined while use of non-targeted PPIs increased correspondingly with overall sustained declines in total PPIs. The policy impact on recommended drugs varied based on whether the targeted drugs have appropriate alternatives. The DDDs and costs of recommended drugs that have readily accessible appropriate alternatives (atorvastatin) declined, which offset increases in its alternative non-target drugs (rosuvastatin), while there was no significant change in those recommended drugs that did not have appropriate alternative drugs (clopidogrel and ticagrelor). Finally, the DDDs and costs of non-recommended drugs decreased significantly.

CONCLUSION

PMP policy impact was not the same across different drug groups. PMP did help contain the use and costs of potentially over-used drugs and non-recommended drugs. PMP did not seem to reduce the use of first-line therapeutic drugs recommended by clinical treatment guidelines, especially those lacking alternatives; such drugs are unlikely appropriate candidates for PMP.

Impact of policy alterations on elective percutaneous coronary interventions in Japan

OBJECTIVE

Establishing appropriate percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in stable angina pectoris (SAP) has become a distinctive performance measure worldwide. Clinical guidelines call for documenting ischaemia in patients with SAP prior to elective PCI. The Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare introduced a new reimbursement policy in April 2018 to promote the appropriate and judicious implementation of PCI. The 2018 reimbursement changes clarified the required proof of ischaemia. Tests to evaluate functional ischaemia and coronary stenosis have been added as a requirement for reimbursement. We examined whether this reimbursement revision had an impact on PCI procedures for SAP in Japan.

METHODS

We used administrative claims data in Japan's Diagnosis Procedure Combination database from April 2014 through March 2020. We used interrupted time series analyses with a control to ascertain the impacts on elective PCI procedures before and after the Japanese reimbursement revision. The primary outcome was the change in elective PCI procedures per month. Emergent PCI procedures served as a control group.

RESULTS

A total of 773 240 PCI procedures were identified between April 2014 and March 2020: 388 817 and 180 462 elective PCIs before and after the reimbursement revision, respectively. After the 2018 reimbursement revision, significant trend changes were found in elective PCI procedures per month (-106.3, 95% CI -155.8 to -56.8, p<0.01), while the number of emergent PCIs remained stable throughout the study period.

CONCLUSIONS

After revising the reimbursement tariff for elective PCIs in 2018, there was a significant reduction in elective PCI procedures per month.

Evaluation of road safety policies and their enforcement in Mexico City, 2015-2019: an interrupted time-series study

BACKGROUND

Mexico City approved new road safety policies in 2015, which included lower speed limits and higher fines for traffic offences. In 2019, economic fines were replaced by a point penalty system among other changes. This study evaluates these policies on road traffic collisions, injuries and deaths.

METHODS

Collisions data came from insurance collision claims (January 2015 to December 2019) and road traffic deaths from vital registrations (January 2013 to December 2019). We conducted an interrupted time series analysis for each outcome using negative binomial regression models with an offset of insured vehicles (collisions) or total population (deaths). Then, we classified the 16 municipalities in the city into enforcement and no-enforcement groups based on presence or absence of automated traffic enforcement devices and conducted a controlled interrupted time series analysis.

RESULTS

The 2015 road safety policies had no effect on total collisions and collisions resulting in injury but were associated with a 0.2% (95% CI -0.3 to 0.0) decline in the mortality trend. The 2019 policies had no effect on total collisions but were associated with a 1.5% increase in the trend of collisions resulting in injuries and with a 2.7% (95% CI 1.0 to 4.5) increase in the mortality trend. Postpolicy trends in enforcement versus no-enforcement municipalities were not significantly different.

CONCLUSION

Policies that included high economic penalties for speeding and dangerous behaviours were effective in decreasing traffic mortality while removing economic penalties and replacing them with a point penalty system were associated with an increase in collisions, resulting in injury and mortality.

The impact of alcohol taxation increase on all-cause mortality inequalities in Lithuania: an interrupted time series analysis

BACKGROUND

Taxation increases which reduce the affordability of alcohol are expected to reduce mortality inequalities. A recent taxation increase in Lithuania offers the unique possibility to test this hypothesis.

METHODS

Census-linked mortality data between 2011 and 2019 were used to calculate monthly sex- and education-stratified age-standardized mortality rates for the population aged 40 to 70 years. As primary outcome, we analysed the difference in age-standardized all-cause mortality rates between the population of lowest versus highest educational achievement. The impact of the 2017 taxation increase was evaluated using interrupted time series analyses. To identify whether changes in alcohol use can explain the observed effects on all-cause mortality, the education-based mortality differences were then decomposed into n = 16 cause-of-death groupings.

RESULTS

Between 2012 and 2019, education-based all-cause mortality inequalities in Lithuania declined by 18% among men and by 14% among women. Following the alcohol taxation increase, we found a pronounced yet temporary reduction of mortality inequalities among Lithuanian men (- 13%). Subsequent decomposition analyses suggest that the reduction in mortality inequalities between lower and higher educated men was mainly driven by narrowing mortality differences in injuries and infectious diseases.

CONCLUSIONS

A marked increase in alcohol excise taxation was associated with a decrease in mortality inequalities among Lithuanian men. More pronounced reductions in deaths from injuries and infectious diseases among lower as compared to higher educated groups could be the result of differential changes in alcohol use in these populations.

The impact of key monitoring policy on the usage of policy-related drugs in Hubei Province, China

Introduction: This study evaluated quantitatively the impact of the first batch of the catalog of Key Monitoring and Rational Use Drugs (KMRUD) in Hubei Province on policy-related drug use and expenditures. Methods: This study is aimed to provide a basis for the successful implementation of subsequent catalogs of KMRUD, which may promote the standardization of clinical application of related drugs and effectively reduce drug expenses of the patients. Data on the procurement records of policy-related drugs from January 2018 to June 2021 were obtained from the Drug Centralized Procurement Platform of the Public Resources Trading Center in Hubei Province. Interrupted time-series (ITS) analysis was used in this study. Results: After the implementation of the first batch of the catalog of KMRUD, the consumption of policy-related drugs decreased by 83.29% in 2020. The spending on policy-related drugs decreased by 83.93% in 2020. The introduction of the first batch of the catalog of KMRUD was associated with a significant decrease in the spending on policy-related drugs in the level (p = 0.001). Before the implementation of the KMRUD catalog policy, the Defined Daily Doses (DDDs) (β₁ = -32.26 p < 0.001) and spending (β₁ = -3662.19 p < 0.001) on policy-related drugs showed a downward trend. In the aggregated ITS analysis, the Defined Daily Dose cost (DDDc) of policy-related drugs decreased significantly in the trend (p < 0.001). After the implementation of the KMRUD catalog policy, the monthly procurement volume of 10 policy-related drugs have a significant downward trend (p < 0.05), and 4 policy-related drugs have a significant upward trend (p < 0.05). Conclusion: After the policy intervention, the total DDDc on policy-related drugs indicated sustained reductions. The KMRUD policy overall achieved the goal of limiting policy-related drug use and controlling cost increases. And it is recommended that the health department quantify the usage indicator of adjuvant drugs, uniform standards, and apply prescription reviews and dynamic supervision, and other measures to strengthen supervision.

Antimicrobial Stewardship Programs in PICU Settings: A Systematic Review

OBJECTIVES

Development of antimicrobial stewardship programs (ASPs) is strategy for prevention and management of emergence of antimicrobial-resistant organisms. In this study, we systematically reviewed the literature on antimicrobial stewardship interventions in PICUs and analyzed approaches, structure, implementation, and outcomes of the ASPs.

DATA SOURCES

PubMed and Scopus databases were systematically searched for studies published from January 1, 2007, to December 31, 2020, reporting interventions on judicious use of antimicrobials in PICUs (last search performed February 28, 2021).

DATA SELECTION

Studies that evaluated an intervention in a PICU setting or both in PICU and other settings and reported separate results for PICU were eligible for full-text review. Studies that had implemented stewardship in the entire hospital, including the PICU, but without presenting dedicated PICU data were excluded from the analysis.

DATA EXTRACTION

The strategy of intervention, structure of ASP team, implementation, and outcomes were assessed with a checklist tool for all studies included in the analysis. Risk of bias was assessed with the Cochrane Risk-of-Bias in Nonrandomized studies of Interventions tool.

DATA SYNTHESIS

Thirteen articles were found: 11 that applied ASP in PICUs, and two at hospital level. All PICU-dedicated ASPs applied a multimodal intervention combining strategies simultaneously; audit with feedback (6/11) and facility-specific clinical practice guidelines (7/11) were the most common strategies. A multidisciplinary team was formulated in all ASPs except for three biomarker-based interventions. Six of 11 studies included techniques to enhance behavior change and one implemented a behavior-based intervention. Antibiotic consumption was evaluated in all ASPs, cost in three of 11, antibiotic resistance in one of 11, length of hospitalization in six of 11, and mortality in eight of 11. All hospital-wide ASPs used audit with feedback in addition to facility-specific clinical practice guidelines and assessed antimicrobial consumption, expenditures, length of stay, and mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of ASPs in PICUs is limited, and few programs follow all of the currently available recommendations.

The impact of COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions on HIV care continuum in China: An interrupted time series analysis

Background

China implemented strict non-pharmaceutical interventions to contain COVID-19 at the early stage. We aimed to evaluate the impact of COVID-19 on HIV care continuum in China.

Methods

Aggregated data on HIV care continuum between 1 January 2017 and 31 December 2020 were collected from centers for disease control and prevention at different levels and major infectious disease hospitals in various regions in China. We used interrupted time series analysis to characterize temporal trend in weekly numbers of HIV post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) prescriptions, HIV tests, HIV diagnoses, median time intervals between HIV diagnosis and antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation (time intervals, days), ART initiations, mean CD4+ T cell counts at ART initiation (CD4 counts, cells/μL), ART collections, and missed visits for ART collection, before and after the implementation of massive NPIs (23 January to 7 April 2020). We used Poisson segmented regression models to estimate the immediate and long-term impact of NPIs on these outcomes.

Findings

A total of 16,780 PEP prescriptions, 1,101,686 HIV tests, 69,659 HIV diagnoses, 63,409 time intervals and ART initiations, 61,518 CD4 counts, 1,528,802 ART collections, and 6656 missed visits were recorded during the study period. The majority of outcomes occurred in males (55·3-87·4%), 21-50 year olds (51·7-90·5%), Southwestern China (38·2-82·0%) and heterosexual transmission (47·9-66·1%). NPIs was associated with 71·5% decrease in PEP prescriptions (IRR 0·285; 95% CI 0·192-0·423), 36·1% decrease in HIV tests (0·639, 0·497-0·822), 32·0% decrease in HIV diagnoses (0·680, 0·511-0·904), 59·3% increase in time intervals (1·593, 1·270-1·997) and 17·4% decrease in CD4 counts (0·826, 0·746-0·915) in the first week during NPIs. There was no marked change in the number of ART initiations, ART collections and missed visits during the NPIs. By the end of 2020, the number of HIV tests, HIV diagnoses, time intervals, ART initiations, and CD4 counts reached expected levels, but the number of PEP prescriptions (0·523, 0·394-0·696), ART collections (0·720, 0·595-0·872), and missed visits (0·137, 0·086-0·220) were still below expected levels. With the ease of restrictions, PEP prescriptions (slope change 1·024/week, 1·012-1·037), HIV tests (1·016/week, 1·008-1·026), and CD4 counts (1·005/week, 1·001-1·009) showed a significant increasing trend.

Interpretation

HIV care continuum in China was affected by the COVID-19 NPIs at various levels. Preparedness and efforts to maintain the HIV care continuum during public health emergencies should leverage collaborations between stakeholders.

Funding

Natural Science Foundation of China.

Effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on maternal healthcare indices in Southern Iran: an interrupted time series analysis

OBJECTIVES

Epidemics are anticipated to influence the coverage of health services. We assessed the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on maternal healthcare indices and care providers' performance.

SETTING

1801 maternal healthcare centres under the auspices of Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Southern Iran.

PARTICIPANTS

Approximately 63 000 pregnant women.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

In this prospective ecological study, interrupted time series analysis was used to model and compare the trend of maternal healthcare indices before and after the COVID-19 pandemic announcement.

RESULTS

The results showed a significant drop in count of preconception healthcare visits, first routine laboratory tests, first trimester prenatal care, first trimester sonography, prenatal screening for birth defects at weeks 11-13, prenatal care visits at weeks 16-20, second routine laboratory tests, second trimester sonography, prenatal care visits at weeks 24-30, prenatal care visits at weeks 31-34, postpartum care visits at days 10-15 and postpartum care visits at days 30-42 with the start of the COVID-19 pandemic (-50% (95% CI -48.68% to -51.36%), -19.67% (95% CI -22.12% to -17.15%), -25.88% (95% CI -28.46% to -23.21%), -23.84% (95% CI -26.26% to -21.34%), -20.16% (95% CI -23.01% to -17.20%), -18.53% (95% CI -21.25% to -15.71%), -28.63% (95% CI -31.03% to -26.14%), -27.48% (95% CI -30.07% to -24.79%), -31.08% (95% CI -33.43% to -28.61%), -31.84% (95% CI -34.35% to -29.23%), 32.55% (95% CI -35.12% to -29.89%) and -39.28% (95% CI -41.59% to -36.88%), respectively). Nevertheless, the trend in coverage of these services showed recovery in the subsequent months (8.36%, 10.55%, 5.74%, 8.01%, 4.40%, 5.06%, 11.20%, 7.58%, 7.38%, 7.80%, 9.59% and 9.61% per month, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Using ecological data during the COVID-19 pandemic era, we observed a 'level change and slope change' as the major pattern of interruption of maternal healthcare coverage, indicating a possible indirect effect rather than a causative relationship. Such relative predictability might assist with future pandemic planning.

Maternal and Child Health Care Service Disruptions and Recovery in Mozambique After Cyclone Idai: An Uncontrolled Interrupted Time Series Analysis

INTRODUCTION

Climate change-related extreme weather events have increased in frequency and intensity, threatening people's health, particularly in places with weak health systems. In March 2019, Cyclone Idai devastated Mozambique's central region, causing infrastructure destruction, population displacement, and death. We assessed the impact of Idai on maternal and child health services and recovery in the Sofala and Manica provinces.

METHODS

Using monthly district-level routine data from November 2016 to March 2020, we performed an uncontrolled interrupted time series analysis to assess changes in 10 maternal and child health indicators in all 25 districts before and after Idai. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical negative binomial model with district-level random intercepts and slopes to estimate Idai-related service disruptions and recovery.

RESULTS

Of the 4.44 million people in Sofala and Manica, 1.83 (41.2%) million were affected. Buzi, Nhamatanda, and Dondo (all in Sofala province) had the highest proportion of people affected. After Idai, all 10 indicators showed an abrupt substantial decrease. First antenatal care visits per 100,000 women of reproductive age decreased by 23% (95% confidence interval [CI]=0.62, 0.96) in March and 11% (95% CI=0.75, 1.07) in April. BCG vaccinations per 1,000 children under age 5 years declined by 21% (95% CI=0.69, 0.90) and measles vaccinations decreased by 25% (95% CI=0.64, 0.87) in March and remained similar in April. Within 3 months post-cyclone, almost all districts recovered to pre-Idai levels, including Buzi, which showed a 22% and 13% relative increase in the number of first antenatal care visits and BCG, respectively.

CONCLUSION

We found substantial health service disruptions immediately after Idai, with greater impact in the most affected districts. The findings suggest impressive recovery post-Idai, emphasizing the need to build resilient health systems to ensure quality health care during and after natural disasters.

Acceso a la atención del cáncer en los grupos vulnerables de Chile durante la pandemia de COVID-19

Objetivo.

Estudiar la repercusión de la pandemia de COVID-19 en el acceso a la atención del cáncer en Chile, analizando los efectos diferenciales por tipo de seguro, sexo y edad.

Métodos.

Se llevó a cabo un estudio cuasiexperimental mediante análisis de series temporales interrumpidas. Se recurrió a fuentes de datos múltiples con el fin de lograr una evaluación amplia de la utilización de la atención del cáncer de enero del 2017 a diciembre del 2020. Se ajustaron modelos binomiales negativos en función de los grupos de población para una diversidad de servicios y diagnósticos.

Resultados.

Tras una disminución considerable de la utilización de la atención oncológica en marzo, se observó una recuperación lenta e incompleta durante el 2020. Los servicios de atención del cáncer, las confirmaciones diagnósticas y las licencias por enfermedad acumulados se redujeron en un tercio en el 2020; la disminución fue más pronunciada en las mujeres y las personas afiliadas al seguro de enfermedad público. No se hizo un diagnóstico temprano en 5132 personas con cuatro tipos frecuentes de cáncer.

Conclusiones.

La pandemia sobrecargó el sistema de salud chileno y provocó una disminución del acceso a los servicios básicos, con una repercusión profunda en la atención del cáncer. La reducción de los servicios de oncología precedió los confinamientos a gran escala y las interrupciones por parte de los prestadores. Cabe destacar que no todos los grupos de la población se vieron afectados por igual y se observaron pautas que indican un agravamiento de las desigualdades por situación socioeconómica y sexo.

The impacts of the “4+7” pilot policy on the volume, expenditures, and daily cost of Serotonin-Specific Reuptake Inhibitors (SSRIs) antidepressants: A quasi-experimental study

Objectives: The purpose of this study was to quantitatively evaluate the impacts of the”4 + 7” pilot policy on purchase volume, purchase expenditures, and daily cost and to find the changes in the use of SSRIs.

Methods: Data was collected covering 31 months, before, during, and after the “4 + 7” pilot policy was implemented in Shenzhen. Interrupted time-series (ITS) analysis was used to examine whether there had been a significant effect with the onset of the “4 + 7” pilot policy in March 2019.

Findings: The daily cost of policy-related drugs had a substantial drop of 2.93 yuan under the “4 + 7” pilot policy. The result has shown a 76.70% increase in volume and a 3.39% decrease in the expenditure on policy-related drugs. This study found that the “4 + 7” pilot policy increased the proportion of purchasing winning drugs, with an increment of 85.60 percent. After the implementation of the “4 + 7” pilot policy, policy-related drugs decreased by 443.55thousand Chinese yuan. The study indicated that volume of winning products significantly increased as shown in the regression with a level coefficient (β₂) of -224.17 (p < 0.001) and trend coefficient (β₃) of 15.74 (p < 0.001). The result revealed that both volume and expenditures on branded products showed a significant decrease in the regression in the post-intervention period (level coefficient of volume: β₂ = -57.65, p < 0.01, trend coefficient of volume: β₃ = -3.44, p < 0.01; level coefficient of expenditure: β₂ = -712.98, p < 0.01, trend coefficient of expenditure: β₃ = -40.10, p < 0.01).

Conclusion: The volume-based procurement has successfully led to price reductions and improved the affordability of medicines, especially for those with chronic diseases. The volume-based procurement has demonstrated initial success in reshaping the composition of the Chinese pharmaceutical market in favor of generics with high quality and low prices.

Cancer Care Access in Chile's Vulnerable Populations During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Objectives. To examine the COVID-19 pandemic's impact on cancer care access in Chile, analyzing differential effects by insurance type, gender, and age. Methods. We conducted a quasi-experimental study using interrupted time series analysis. We used multiple data sources for a broad evaluation of cancer-related health care utilization from January 2017 to December 2020. We fit negative binomial models by population groups for a range of services and diagnoses. Results. A sharp drop in oncology health care utilization in March was followed by a slow, incomplete recovery over 2020. Cumulative cancer-related services, diagnostic confirmations, and sick leaves were reduced by one third in 2020; the decrease was more pronounced among women and the publicly insured. Early diagnosis was missed in 5132 persons with 4 common cancers. Conclusions. The pandemic stressed the Chilean health system, decreasing access to essential services, with a profound impact on cancer care. Oncology service reductions preceded large-scale lockdowns and supply-side disruptions. Importantly, not all population groups were equally affected, with patterns suggesting that gender and socioeconomic inequalities were exacerbated. (Am J Public Health. 2022;112(S6):S591-S601. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2021.306587).

Geographic social inequalities in information-seeking response to the COVID-19 pandemic in China: longitudinal analysis of Baidu Index

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic alarmed the public and initiated the uptake of preventive measures. However, the manner in which the public responded to these announcements, and whether individuals from different provinces responded similarly during the COVID-19 pandemic in China, remains largely unknown. We used an interrupted time-series analysis to examine the change in Baidu Search Index of selected COVID-19 related terms associated with the COVID-19 derived exposure variables. We analyzed the daily search index in Mainland China using segmented log-normal regressions with data from Jan 2017 to Mar 2021. In this longitudinal study of nearly one billion internet users, we found synchronous increases in COVID-19 related searches during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent local outbreaks, irrespective of the location and severity of each outbreak. The most precipitous increase occurred in the week when most provinces activated their highest level of response to public health emergencies. Search interests increased more as Human Development Index (HDI) -an area level measure of socioeconomic status—increased. Searches on the index began to decline nationwide after the initiation of mass-scale lockdowns, but statistically significant increases continued to occur in conjunction with the report of major sporadic local outbreaks. The intense interest in COVID-19 related information at virtually the same time across different provinces indicates that the Chinese government utilizes multiple channels to keep the public informed of the pandemic. Regional socioeconomic status influenced search patterns.