Stomatal density in Pinus sylvestris as an indicator of temperature rather than CO2 : Evidence from a pan-European transect

The commonly observed negative relationship between stomatal density (SD) and atmospheric CO₂ has led to SD being proposed as an indicator of atmospheric CO₂ concentration. The use of SD as a proxy for CO₂ , however, has been hampered by an insufficient understanding of the intraspecific variation of this trait. We hypothesized that SD in Pinus sylvestris, a widely distributed conifer, varies geographically and that this variation is determined by major climatic variables. By sampling needles from naturally growing trees along a latitudinal range of 32.25°, equivalent to 13.7°C gradient of mean annual temperature (MAT) across Europe, we found that SD decreased from the warmest southern sites to the coldest sites in the north at a rate of 4 stomata per mm² for each 1°C, with MAT explaining 44% of the variation. Additionally, samples from a provenance trial exhibited a positive relationship between SD and the MAT of the original localities, suggesting that high SD is an adaptation to warm temperature. Our study revealed one of the strongest intraspecific relationships between SD and climate in any woody species, supporting the utility of SD as a temperature, rather than direct CO₂ , proxy. In addition, our results predict the response of SD to climate warming.

Genetic data improves niche model discrimination and alters the direction and magnitude of climate change forecasts

Ecological niche models (ENMs) have classically operated under the simplifying assumptions that there are no barriers to gene flow, species are genetically homogeneous (i.e., no population-specific local adaptation), and all individuals share the same niche. Yet, these assumptions are violated for most broadly distributed species. Here, we incorporate genetic data from the widespread riparian tree species narrowleaf cottonwood (Populus angustifolia) to examine whether including intraspecific genetic variation can alter model performance and predictions of climate change impacts. We found that (1) P. angustifolia is differentiated into six genetic groups across its range from México to Canada and (2) different populations occupy distinct climate niches representing unique ecotypes. Comparing model discriminatory power, (3) all genetically informed ecological niche models (gENMs) outperformed the standard species-level ENM (3-14% increase in AUC; 1-23% increase in pROC). Furthermore, (4) gENMs predicted large differences among ecotypes in both the direction and magnitude of responses to climate change and (5) revealed evidence of niche divergence, particularly for the Eastern Rocky Mountain ecotype. (6) Models also predicted progressively increasing fragmentation and decreasing overlap between ecotypes. Contact zones are often hotspots of diversity that are critical for supporting species' capacity to respond to present and future climate change, thus predicted reductions in connectivity among ecotypes is of conservation concern. We further examined the generality of our findings by comparing our model developed for a higher elevation Rocky Mountain species with a related desert riparian cottonwood, P. fremontii. Together our results suggest that incorporating intraspecific genetic information can improve model performance by addressing this important source of variance. gENMs bring an evolutionary perspective to niche modeling and provide a truly "adaptive management" approach to support conservation genetic management of species facing global change.

Willow phenological modelling at different altitudes in central Italy

In order to estimate the impact of climate change on the phenological parameters and to compare them with the historical record, a decision support system (DSS) has been applied employing a Phenological Modelling Platform. Biological observations of two willow species (Salix acutifolia and smithiana Willd) in 3 gardens at different altitudes located in Central Italy were utilized to identify suitable phenological models related to four main vegetative phase timings (BBCH11, BBCH91, BBCH 94, BBCH95), and male full flowering (BBCH 65) clearly identifiable in these species. The present investigation identifies the best phenological models for the main phenophases allowing their practical application as real-time monitoring and plant development prediction tools. Sigmoid model revealed high performances in simulating spring vegetative phases, BBCH11 (First leaves unfolded), and BBCH91 (Shoot and foliage growth completed). Salix acutifolia Willd. development appeared to be more related to temperature amount interpreted by phenological models in comparison to Salix smithiana Willd. above all during spring (BBCH11 and 91), probably due to a different grade of phenotypic plasticity between the 2 considered species.

Adaptive variation for growth and resistance to a novel pathogen along climatic gradients in a foundation tree

Natural ecosystems are under pressure from increasing abiotic and biotic stressors, including climate change and novel pathogens, which are putting species at risk of local extinction, and altering community structure, composition and function. Here, we aim to assess adaptive variation in growth and fungal disease resistance within a foundation tree, Corymbia calophylla to determine local adaptation, trait heritability and genetic constraints in adapting to future environments. Two experimental planting sites were established in regions of contrasting rainfall with seed families from 18 populations capturing a wide range of climate origins (~4,000 individuals at each site). Every individual was measured in 2015 and 2016 for growth (height, basal diameter) and disease resistance to a recently introduced leaf blight pathogen (Quambalaria pitereka). Narrow-sense heritability was estimated along with trait covariation. Trait variation was regressed against climate-of-origin, and multivariate models were used to develop predictive maps of growth and disease resistance. Growth and blight resistance traits differed significantly among populations, and these differences were consistent between experimental sites and sampling years. Growth and blight resistance were heritable, and comparisons between trait differentiation (Q ST) and genetic differentiation (F ST) revealed that population differences in height and blight resistance traits are due to divergent natural selection. Traits were significantly correlated with climate-of-origin, with cool and wet populations showing the highest levels of growth and blight resistance. These results provide evidence that plants have adaptive growth strategies and pathogen defence strategies. Indeed, the presence of standing genetic variation and trait heritability of growth and blight resistance provide capacity to respond to novel, external pressures. The integration of genetic variation into adaptive management strategies, such as assisted gene migration and seed sourcing, may be used to provide greater resilience for natural ecosystems to both biotic and abiotic stressors.

Temperature and soil fertility as regulators of tree line Scots pine growth and survival-implications for the acclimation capacity of northern populations

The acclimation capacity of leading edge tree populations is crucially important in a warming climate. Theoretical considerations suggest that adaptation through genetic change is needed, but this may be a slow process. Both positive and catastrophic outcomes have been predicted, while empirical studies have lagged behind theory development. Here we present results of a 30-year study of 55,000 Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) trees, planted in 15 common gardens in three consecutive years near and beyond the present Scots pine tree line. Our results show that, contrary to earlier predictions, even long-distance transfers to the North can be successful when soil fertility is high. This suggests that present northern populations have a very high acclimation capacity. We also found that while temperature largely controls Scots pine growth, soil nutrient availability plays an important role-in concert with interpopulation genetic variation-in Scots pine survival and fitness in tree line conditions. These results suggest that rapid range expansions and substantial growth enhancements of Scots pine are possible in fertile sites as seed production and soil nutrient mineralization are both known to increase under a warming climate. Finally, as the ontogenetic pattern of tree mortality was highly site specific and unpredictable, our results emphasize the need for long-term field trials when searching for the factors that control fitness of trees in the variable edaphic and climatic conditions of the far North.

How do steppe plants follow their optimal environmental conditions or persist under suboptimal conditions? The differing strategies of annuals and perennials

For a species to be able to respond to environmental change, it must either succeed in following its optimal environmental conditions or in persisting under suboptimal conditions, but we know very little about what controls these capacities. We parameterized species distribution models (SDMs) for 135 plant species from the Algerian steppes. We interpreted low false-positive rates as reflecting a high capacity to follow optimal environmental conditions and high false-negative rates as a high capacity to persist under suboptimal environmental conditions. We also measured functional traits in the field and built a unique plant trait database for the North-African steppe. For both perennial and annual species, we explored how these two capacities can be explained by species traits and whether relevant trait values reflect species strategies or biases in SDMs. We found low false-positive rates in species with small seeds, flowers attracting specialist pollinators, and specialized distributions (among annuals and perennials), low root:shoot ratios, wide root-systems, and large leaves (perennials only) (R2 = .52-58). We found high false-negative rates in species with marginal environmental distribution (among annuals and perennials), small seeds, relatively deep roots, and specialized distributions (annuals) or large leaves, wide root-systems, and monocarpic life cycle (perennials) (R2 = .38 for annuals and 0.65 for perennials). Overall, relevant traits are rarely indicative of the possible biases of SDMs, but rather reflect the species' reproductive strategy, dispersal ability, stress tolerance, and pollination strategies. Our results suggest that wide undirected dispersal in annual species and efficient resource acquisition in perennial species favor both capacities, whereas short life spans in perennial species favor persistence in suboptimal environmental conditions and flowers attracting specialist pollinators in perennial and annual species favor following optimal environmental conditions. Species that neither follow nor persist will be at risk under future environmental change.

High rate of adaptive evolution in two widespread European pines

Comparing related organisms with differing ecological requirements and evolutionary histories can shed light on the mechanisms and drivers underlying genetic adaptation. Here, by examining a common set of hundreds of loci, we compare patterns of nucleotide diversity and molecular adaptation of two European conifers (Scots pine and maritime pine) living in contrasted environments and characterized by distinct population genetic structure (low and clinal in Scots pine, high and ecotypic in maritime pine) and demographic histories. We found higher nucleotide diversity in Scots pine than in maritime pine, whereas rates of new adaptive substitutions (ω_a ), as estimated from the distribution of fitness effects, were similar across species and among the highest found in plants. Sample size and population genetic structure did not appear to have resulted in significant bias in estimates of ω_a . Moreover, population contraction-expansion dynamics for each species did not affect differentially the rate of adaptive substitution in these two pines. Several methodological and biological factors may underlie the unusually high rate of adaptive evolution of Scots pine and maritime pine. By providing two new case studies with contrasting evolutionary histories, we contribute to disentangling the multiple factors potentially affecting adaptive evolution in natural plant populations.

Competitive success of southern populations of Betula pendula and Sorbus aucuparia under simulated southern climate experiment in the subarctic

Global warming has been commonly accepted to facilitate species' range shifts across latitudes. Cross-latitudinal transplantations support this; many tree species can well adapt to new geographical areas. However, these studies fail to capture species' adaptations to new light environment because the experiments were not designed to explicitly separate species' responses to light and temperature. Here we tested reaction norms of tree seedlings in reciprocal transplantations 1,000 km apart from each other at two latitudes (60°N and 69°N). In contrast to past studies, we exposed our experimental plants to same temperature in both sites (temperature of 60°N growing site is recorded to adjust temperature of 69°N site in real time via Internet connection) while light environment (photoperiod, light quality) remained ambient. Shoot elongation and autumn coloration were studied in seedlings of two deciduous trees (Betula pendula and Sorbus aucuparia), which were expected to respond differently to day length. Sorbus as a member of Rosaceae family was assumed to be indifferent to photoperiod, while Betula responds strongly to day length. We hypothesized that (1) southern and northern populations of both species perform differently; (2) southern populations perform better in both sites; (3) autumn phenology of southern populations may delay in the northern site; (4) and Sorbus aucuparia is less dependent on light environment. According to the hypotheses, shoot elongation of northern population was inherently low in both species. An evolutionary consequence of this may be a competitive success of southern populations under warming climate. Southern population of B. pendula was delayed in autumn coloration, but not in growth cessation. Sorbus aucuparia was less responsive to light environment. The results suggest that light provides selection pressure in range shifts, but the response is species dependent.

Genetic heterogeneity underlying variation in a locally adaptive clinal trait in Pinus sylvestris revealed by a Bayesian multipopulation analysis

Local adaptation is a common feature of plant and animal populations. Adaptive phenotypic traits are genetically differentiated along environmental gradients, but the genetic basis of such adaptation is still poorly known. Genetic association studies of local adaptation combine data over populations. Correcting for population structure in these studies can be problematic since both selection and neutral demographic events can create similar allele frequency differences between populations. Correcting for demography with traditional methods may lead to eliminating some true associations. We developed a new Bayesian approach for identifying the loci underlying an adaptive trait in a multipopulation situation in the presence of possible double confounding due to population stratification and adaptation. With this method we studied the genetic basis of timing of bud set, a surrogate trait for timing of yearly growth cessation that confers local adaptation to the populations of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris). Population means of timing of bud set were highly correlated with latitude. Most effects at individual loci were small. Interestingly, we found genetic heterogeneity (that is, different sets of loci associated with the trait) between the northern and central European parts of the cline. We also found indications of stronger stabilizing selection toward the northern part of the range. The harsh northern conditions may impose greater selective pressure on timing of growth cessation, and the relative importance of different environmental cues used for tracking the seasons might differ depending on latitude of origin.

Contrasting patterns of genetic variation in core and peripheral populations of highly outcrossing and wind pollinated forest tree species

Gene flow tends to have a homogenising effect on a species' background genetic variation over large geographical areas. However, it is usually unknown to what extent the genetic structure of populations is influenced by gene exchange between core and peripheral populations that may represent stands of different evolutionary and demographic history. In this study, we looked at the patterns of population differentiation in Scots pine-a highly outcrossing and wind pollinated conifer species that forms large ecosystems of great ecological and economic importance in Europe and Asia. A set of 13 polymorphic nuclear microsatellite loci was analysed to infer the genetic relationships among 24 populations (676 individuals) from Europe and Asia Minor. The study included specimens from the primary continuous range and from isolated, marginal stands that are considered to be autochthonous populations representative of the species' putative refugial areas. Despite their presumably different histories, a similar level of genetic variation and no evidence of a population bottleneck was found across the populations. Differentiation among populations was relatively low (average FST = 0.035); however, the population structure was not homogenous, which was clearly evident from the allelic frequency spectra and Bayesian assignment analysis. Significant differentiation over short geographical distances was observed between isolated populations within the Iberian and Anatolian Peninsulas (Asia Minor), which contrasted with the absence of genetic differentiation observed between distant populations e.g., between central and northern Europe. The analysed populations were assigned to several groups that corresponded to the geographical regions of their occurrence. These results will be useful in genetics studies in Scots pine that aim to link nucleotide and phenotypic variation across the species distribution range and for development of sustainable breeding and management programs.

Photoperiod constraints on tree phenology, performance and migration in a warming world

Increasing temperatures should facilitate the poleward movement of species distributions through a variety of processes, including increasing the growing season length. However, in temperate and boreal latitudes, temperature is not the only cue used by trees to determine seasonality, as changes in photoperiod provide a more consistent, reliable annual signal of seasonality than temperature. Here, we discuss how day length may limit the ability of tree species to respond to climate warming in situ, focusing on the implications of photoperiodic sensing for extending the growing season and affecting plant phenology and growth, as well as the potential role of photoperiod in controlling carbon uptake and water fluxes in forests. We also review whether there are patterns across plant functional types (based on successional strategy, xylem anatomy and leaf morphology) in their sensitivity to photoperiod that we can use to predict which species or groups might be more successful in migrating as the climate warms, or may be more successfully used for forestry and agriculture through assisted migration schemes.

Molecular proxies for climate maladaptation in a long-lived tree (Pinus pinaster Aiton, Pinaceae)

Understanding adaptive genetic responses to climate change is a main challenge for preserving biological diversity. Successful predictive models for climate-driven range shifts of species depend on the integration of information on adaptation, including that derived from genomic studies. Long-lived forest trees can experience substantial environmental change across generations, which results in a much more prominent adaptation lag than in annual species. Here, we show that candidate-gene SNPs (single nucleotide polymorphisms) can be used as predictors of maladaptation to climate in maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Aiton), an outcrossing long-lived keystone tree. A set of 18 SNPs potentially associated with climate, 5 of them involving amino acid-changing variants, were retained after performing logistic regression, latent factor mixed models, and Bayesian analyses of SNP-climate correlations. These relationships identified temperature as an important adaptive driver in maritime pine and highlighted that selective forces are operating differentially in geographically discrete gene pools. The frequency of the locally advantageous alleles at these selected loci was strongly correlated with survival in a common garden under extreme (hot and dry) climate conditions, which suggests that candidate-gene SNPs can be used to forecast the likely destiny of natural forest ecosystems under climate change scenarios. Differential levels of forest decline are anticipated for distinct maritime pine gene pools. Geographically defined molecular proxies for climate adaptation will thus critically enhance the predictive power of range-shift models and help establish mitigation measures for long-lived keystone forest trees in the face of impending climate change.

Climatic adaptation and ecological divergence between two closely related pine species in Southeast China

Climate is one of the most important drivers for adaptive evolution in forest trees. Climatic selection contributes greatly to local adaptation and intraspecific differentiation, but this kind of selection could also have promoted interspecific divergence through ecological speciation. To test this hypothesis, we examined intra- and interspecific genetic variation at 25 climate-related candidate genes and 12 reference loci in two closely related pine species, Pinus massoniana Lamb. and Pinus hwangshanensis Hisa, using population genetic and landscape genetic approaches. These two species occur in Southeast China but have contrasting ecological preferences in terms of several environmental variables, notably altitude, although hybrids form where their distributions overlap. One or more robust tests detected signals of recent and/or ancient selection at two-thirds (17) of the 25 candidate genes, at varying evolutionary timescales, but only three of the 12 reference loci. The signals of recent selection were species specific, but signals of ancient selection were mostly shared by the two species likely because of the shared evolutionary history. FST outlier analysis identified six SNPs in five climate-related candidate genes under divergent selection between the two species. In addition, a total of 24 candidate SNPs representing nine candidate genes showed significant correlation with altitudinal divergence in the two species based on the covariance matrix of population history derived from reference SNPs. Genetic differentiation between these two species was higher at the candidate genes than at the reference loci. Moreover, analysis using the isolation-with-migration model indicated that gene flow between the species has been more restricted for climate-related candidate genes than the reference loci, in both directions. Taken together, our results suggest that species-specific and divergent climatic selection at the candidate genes might have counteracted interspecific gene flow and played a key role in the ecological divergence of these two closely related pine species.

The effects of phenotypic plasticity and local adaptation on forecasts of species range shifts under climate change

Species are the unit of analysis in many global change and conservation biology studies; however, species are not uniform entities but are composed of different, sometimes locally adapted, populations differing in plasticity. We examined how intraspecific variation in thermal niches and phenotypic plasticity will affect species distributions in a warming climate. We first developed a conceptual model linking plasticity and niche breadth, providing five alternative intraspecific scenarios that are consistent with existing literature. Secondly, we used ecological niche-modeling techniques to quantify the impact of each intraspecific scenario on the distribution of a virtual species across a geographically realistic setting. Finally, we performed an analogous modeling exercise using real data on the climatic niches of different tree provenances. We show that when population differentiation is accounted for and dispersal is restricted, forecasts of species range shifts under climate change are even more pessimistic than those using the conventional assumption of homogeneously high plasticity across a species' range. Suitable population-level data are not available for most species so identifying general patterns of population differentiation could fill this gap. However, the literature review revealed contrasting patterns among species, urging greater levels of integration among empirical, modeling and theoretical research on intraspecific phenotypic variation.

Evolutionary and plastic responses to climate change in terrestrial plant populations

As climate change progresses, we are observing widespread changes in phenotypes in many plant populations. Whether these phenotypic changes are directly caused by climate change, and whether they result from phenotypic plasticity or evolution, are active areas of investigation. Here, we review terrestrial plant studies addressing these questions. Plastic and evolutionary responses to climate change are clearly occurring. Of the 38 studies that met our criteria for inclusion, all found plastic or evolutionary responses, with 26 studies showing both. These responses, however, may be insufficient to keep pace with climate change, as indicated by eight of 12 studies that examined this directly. There is also mixed evidence for whether evolutionary responses are adaptive, and whether they are directly caused by contemporary climatic changes. We discuss factors that will likely influence the extent of plastic and evolutionary responses, including patterns of environmental changes, species' life history characteristics including generation time and breeding system, and degree and direction of gene flow. Future studies with standardized methodologies, especially those that use direct approaches assessing responses to climate change over time, and sharing of data through public databases, will facilitate better predictions of the capacity for plant populations to respond to rapid climate change.

Impacts of predicted climate change on recruitment at the geographical limits of Scots pine

Ongoing changes in global climate are having a significant impact on the distribution of plant species, with effects particularly evident at range limits. We assessed the capacity of Pinus sylvestris L. populations at northernmost and southernmost limits of the distribution to cope with projected changes in climate. We investigated responses including seed germination and early seedling growth and survival, using seeds from northernmost (Kevo, Finland) and southernmost (Granada, Spain) populations. Seeds were grown under current climate conditions in each area and under temperatures increased by 5 °C, with changes in precipitation of +30% or -30% with reference to current values at northern and southern limits, respectively, in a fully factorial controlled-conditions experimental design. Increased temperatures reduced germination time and enhanced biomass gain at both range edges but reduced survival at the southern range edge. Higher precipitation also increased survival and biomass but only under a southern climate. Seeds from the southern origin emerged faster, produced bigger seedlings, allocated higher biomass to roots, and survived better than northern ones. These results indicate that recruitment will be reduced at the southernmost range of the species, whereas it will be enhanced at the northern limit, and that the southern seed sources are better adapted to survive under drier conditions. However, future climate will impose a trade-off between seedling growth and survival probabilities. At the southern range edge, higher growth may render individuals more susceptible to mortality where greater aboveground biomass results in greater water loss through evapotranspiration.

The transcriptomics of secondary growth and wood formation in conifers

In the last years, forestry scientists have adapted genomics and next-generation sequencing (NGS) technologies to the search for candidate genes related to the transcriptomics of secondary growth and wood formation in several tree species. Gymnosperms, in particular, the conifers, are ecologically and economically important, namely, for the production of wood and other forestry end products. Until very recently, no whole genome sequencing of a conifer genome was available. Due to the gradual improvement of the NGS technologies and inherent bioinformatics tools, two draft assemblies of the whole genomes sequence of Picea abies and Picea glauca arose in the current year. These draft genome assemblies will bring new insights about the structure, content, and evolution of the conifer genomes. Furthermore, new directions in the forestry, breeding and research of conifers will be discussed in the following. The identification of genes associated with the xylem transcriptome and the knowledge of their regulatory mechanisms will provide less time-consuming breeding cycles and a high accuracy for the selection of traits related to wood production and quality.

Potential for evolutionary responses to climate change - evidence from tree populations

Evolutionary responses are required for tree populations to be able to track climate change. Results of 250 years of common garden experiments show that most forest trees have evolved local adaptation, as evidenced by the adaptive differentiation of populations in quantitative traits, reflecting environmental conditions of population origins. On the basis of the patterns of quantitative variation for 19 adaptation-related traits studied in 59 tree species (mostly temperate and boreal species from the Northern hemisphere), we found that genetic differentiation between populations and clinal variation along environmental gradients were very common (respectively, 90% and 78% of cases). Thus, responding to climate change will likely require that the quantitative traits of populations again match their environments. We examine what kind of information is needed for evaluating the potential to respond, and what information is already available. We review the genetic models related to selection responses, and what is known currently about the genetic basis of the traits. We address special problems to be found at the range margins, and highlight the need for more modeling to understand specific issues at southern and northern margins. We need new common garden experiments for less known species. For extensively studied species, new experiments are needed outside the current ranges. Improving genomic information will allow better prediction of responses. Competitive and other interactions within species and interactions between species deserve more consideration. Despite the long generation times, the strong background in quantitative genetics and growing genomic resources make forest trees useful species for climate change research. The greatest adaptive response is expected when populations are large, have high genetic variability, selection is strong, and there is ecological opportunity for establishment of better adapted genotypes.

Disentangling the roles of history and local selection in shaping clinal variation of allele frequencies and gene expression in Norway spruce (Picea abies)

Understanding the genetic basis of local adaptation is challenging due to the subtle balance among conflicting evolutionary forces that are involved in its establishment and maintenance. One system with which to tease apart these difficulties is clines in adaptive characters. Here we analyzed genetic and phenotypic variation in bud set, a highly heritable and adaptive trait, among 18 populations of Norway spruce (Picea abies), arrayed along a latitudinal gradient ranging from 47°N to 68°N. We confirmed that variation in bud set is strongly clinal, using a subset of five populations. Genotypes for 137 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) chosen from 18 candidate genes putatively affecting bud set and 308 control SNPs chosen from 264 random genes were analyzed for patterns of genetic structure and correlation to environment. Population genetic structure was low (F(ST) = 0.05), but latitudinal patterns were apparent among Scandinavian populations. Hence, part of the observed clinal variation should be attributable to population demography. Conditional on patterns of genetic structure, there was enrichment of SNPs within candidate genes for correlations with latitude. Twenty-nine SNPs were also outliers with respect to F(ST). The enrichment for clinal variation at SNPs within candidate genes (i.e., SNPs in PaGI, PaPhyP, PaPhyN, PaPRR7, and PaFTL2) indicated that local selection in the 18 populations, and/or selection in the ancestral populations from which they were recently derived, shaped the observed cline. Validation of these genes using expression studies also revealed that PaFTL2 expression is significantly associated with latitude, thereby confirming the central role played by this gene in the control of phenology in plants.