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Ward MJ, Sorek‐Hamer M, Henke JA, Little E, Patel A, Shaman J, Vemuri K, DeFelice NB. A Spatially Resolved and Environmentally Informed Forecast Model of West Nile Virus in Coachella Valley, California. GEOHEALTH 2023; 7:e2023GH000855. [PMID: 38077289 PMCID: PMC10702611 DOI: 10.1029/2023gh000855] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/11/2023] [Revised: 10/03/2023] [Accepted: 10/05/2023] [Indexed: 01/11/2024]
Abstract
West Nile virus (WNV) is the most significant arbovirus in the United States in terms of both morbidity and mortality. West Nile exists in a complex transmission cycle between avian hosts and the arthropod vector, Culex spp. mosquitoes. Human spillover events occur when humans are bitten by an infected mosquito and predicting these rates of infection and therefore the risk to humans may be associated with fluctuations in environmental conditions. In this study, we evaluate the hydrological and meteorological drivers associated with mosquito biology and viral development to determine if these associations can be used to forecast seasonal mosquito infection rates with WNV in the Coachella Valley of California. We developed and tested a spatially resolved ensemble forecast model of the WNV mosquito infection rate in the Coachella Valley using 17 years of mosquito surveillance data and North American Land Data Assimilation System-2 environmental data. Our multi-model inference system indicated that the combination of a cooler and dryer winter, followed by a wetter and warmer spring, and a cooler than normal summer was most predictive of the prevalence of West Nile positive mosquitoes in the Coachella Valley. The ability to make accurate early season predictions of West Nile risk has the potential to allow local abatement districts and public health entities to implement early season interventions such as targeted adulticiding and public health messaging before human transmission occurs. Such early and targeted interventions could better mitigate the risk of WNV to humans.
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Affiliation(s)
- Matthew J. Ward
- Environmental Medicine and Public HealthIcahn School of Medicine at Mount SinaiNew YorkNYUSA
| | - Meytar Sorek‐Hamer
- Universities Space Research Association (USRA) at NASA Ames Research CenterMoffett FieldCAUSA
| | | | - Eliza Little
- Connecticut Department of Public HealthHartfordCTUSA
| | - Aman Patel
- Environmental Medicine and Public HealthIcahn School of Medicine at Mount SinaiNew YorkNYUSA
| | - Jeffery Shaman
- Columbia Climate SchoolNew YorkNYUSA
- Mailman School of Public HealthNew YorkNYUSA
| | - Krishna Vemuri
- Environmental Medicine and Public HealthIcahn School of Medicine at Mount SinaiNew YorkNYUSA
| | - Nicholas B. DeFelice
- Environmental Medicine and Public HealthIcahn School of Medicine at Mount SinaiNew YorkNYUSA
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2
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Natasha JA, Yasmin AR, Kumar Sharma RS, Nur-Fazila SH, Nur-Mahiza MI, Arshad SS, Mohammed HO, Kumar K, Keng Loong S, Ahmad Khusaini MKS. Mosquito as West Nile Virus Vector: Global Timeline of Detection, Characteristic, and Biology. PERTANIKA JOURNAL OF TROPICAL AGRICULTURAL SCIENCE 2023; 46:1063-1081. [DOI: 10.47836/pjtas.46.3.18] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 09/02/2023]
Abstract
Mosquitoes are extremely important vectors that transmit zoonotic West Nile virus (WNV) globally, resulting in significant outbreaks in birds, humans, and mammals. The abundance of mosquito vectors combined with the migratory flying behaviour of wild birds across the globe has exacerbated the dynamics of WNV infection. Depth understanding of the WNV infection requires a comprehensive understanding of the character of the vector in terms of their taxonomy, morphology, biology, behaviours, preferences, and factors that promote their breeding. Most susceptible animals and humans may experience serious neurological illnesses such as encephalitis. Little is known about the susceptibility of mosquitoes to WNV infection. This review provides insightful knowledge about the characteristics of mosquitoes that carry WNV and their susceptibility to WNV infection. The context of mosquito’s involvement in WNV transmission is demonstrated through space and time from the 1950’s until to date. The historical timeline of WNV transmission strength was significantly intensified via the complex interactions between vector, virus, and environment. Such knowledge will provide valuable insights into vector control intervention mitigation strategies, especially in tropical climate countries like Malaysia.
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3
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Lian X, Huang J, Li H, He Y, Ouyang Z, Fu S, Zhao Y, Wang D, Wang R, Guan X. Heat waves accelerate the spread of infectious diseases. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2023; 231:116090. [PMID: 37207737 PMCID: PMC10191724 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2023.116090] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/28/2023] [Revised: 04/04/2023] [Accepted: 05/09/2023] [Indexed: 05/21/2023]
Abstract
COVID-19 pandemic appeared summer surge in 2022 worldwide and this contradicts its seasonal fluctuations. Even as high temperature and intense ultraviolet radiation can inhibit viral activity, the number of new cases worldwide has increased to >78% in only 1 month since the summer of 2022 under unchanged virus mutation influence and control policies. Using the attribution analysis based on the theoretical infectious diseases model simulation, we found the mechanism of the severe COVID-19 outbreak in the summer of 2022 and identified the amplification effect of heat wave events on its magnitude. The results suggest that approximately 69.3% of COVID-19 cases this summer could have been avoided if there is no heat waves. The collision between the pandemic and the heatwave is not an accident. Climate change is leading to more frequent extreme climate events and an increasing number of infectious diseases, posing an urgent threat to human health and life. Therefore, public health authorities must quickly develop coordinated management plans to deal with the simultaneous occurrence of extreme climate events and infectious diseases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xinbo Lian
- Collaborative Innovation Center for Western Ecological Safety, College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China
| | - Jianping Huang
- Collaborative Innovation Center for Western Ecological Safety, College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China.
| | - Han Li
- Collaborative Innovation Center for Western Ecological Safety, College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China
| | - Yongli He
- Collaborative Innovation Center for Western Ecological Safety, College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China
| | - Zhi Ouyang
- Collaborative Innovation Center for Western Ecological Safety, College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China
| | - Songbo Fu
- Department of Endocrinology, The First Hospital of Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China
| | - Yingjie Zhao
- Collaborative Innovation Center for Western Ecological Safety, College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China
| | - Danfeng Wang
- Collaborative Innovation Center for Western Ecological Safety, College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China
| | - Rui Wang
- Collaborative Innovation Center for Western Ecological Safety, College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China
| | - Xiaodan Guan
- Collaborative Innovation Center for Western Ecological Safety, College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China
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4
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Huynh LN, Tran LB, Nguyen HS, Ho VH, Parola P, Nguyen XQ. Mosquitoes and Mosquito-Borne Diseases in Vietnam. INSECTS 2022; 13:1076. [PMID: 36554986 PMCID: PMC9781666 DOI: 10.3390/insects13121076] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/03/2022] [Revised: 10/31/2022] [Accepted: 11/17/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
Mosquito-borne diseases pose a significant threat to humans in almost every part of the world. Key factors such as global warming, climatic conditions, rapid urbanisation, frequent human relocation, and widespread deforestation significantly increase the number of mosquitoes and mosquito-borne diseases in Vietnam, and elsewhere around the world. In southeast Asia, and notably in Vietnam, national mosquito control programmes contribute to reducing the risk of mosquito-borne disease transmission, however, malaria and dengue remain a threat to public health. The aim of our review is to provide a complete checklist of all Vietnamese mosquitoes that have been recognised, as well as an overview of mosquito-borne diseases in Vietnam. A total of 281 mosquito species of 42 subgenera and 22 genera exist in Vietnam. Of those, Anopheles, Aedes, and Culex are found to be potential vectors for mosquito-borne diseases. Major mosquito-borne diseases in high-incidence areas of Vietnam include malaria, dengue, and Japanese encephalitis. This review may be useful to entomological researchers for future surveys of Vietnamese mosquitoes and to decision-makers responsible for vector control tactics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ly Na Huynh
- Aix Marseille Univ, IRD, AP-HM, SSA, VITROME, 13005 Marseille, France
- IHU-Méditerranée Infection, 19-21 Boulevard Jean Moulin, 13005 Marseille, France
- Institute of Malariology, Parasitology and Entomology, Quy Nhon (IMPE-QN), MoH Vietnam, Zone 8, Nhon Phu Ward, Quy Nhon City 590000, Vietnam
| | - Long Bien Tran
- Institute of Malariology, Parasitology and Entomology, Quy Nhon (IMPE-QN), MoH Vietnam, Zone 8, Nhon Phu Ward, Quy Nhon City 590000, Vietnam
| | - Hong Sang Nguyen
- Institute of Malariology, Parasitology and Entomology, Quy Nhon (IMPE-QN), MoH Vietnam, Zone 8, Nhon Phu Ward, Quy Nhon City 590000, Vietnam
| | - Van Hoang Ho
- Institute of Malariology, Parasitology and Entomology, Quy Nhon (IMPE-QN), MoH Vietnam, Zone 8, Nhon Phu Ward, Quy Nhon City 590000, Vietnam
| | - Philippe Parola
- Aix Marseille Univ, IRD, AP-HM, SSA, VITROME, 13005 Marseille, France
- IHU-Méditerranée Infection, 19-21 Boulevard Jean Moulin, 13005 Marseille, France
| | - Xuan Quang Nguyen
- Institute of Malariology, Parasitology and Entomology, Quy Nhon (IMPE-QN), MoH Vietnam, Zone 8, Nhon Phu Ward, Quy Nhon City 590000, Vietnam
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5
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Armeanu DS, Gherghina SC, Andrei JV, Joldes CC. Modeling the impact of the COVID‐19 outbreak on environment, health sector and energy market. SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT 2022; 30. [PMCID: PMC9111086 DOI: 10.1002/sd.2299] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/08/2023]
Abstract
The global outbreak of COVID‐19 disease had a significant impact on the entire globe. Such a notable public health event can be seen as a “black swan” that brings unpredictable and unusual forces into the economic context and that it could typically lead to a chain of adverse reactions and market disruptions. Hence, the purpose of this study is to examine how COVID‐19 affects the environment, health, and the oil and energy markets. To achieve this objective, we used daily data for several measures that refer to the environment, health, and oil and energy, for the first wave of the COVID‐19 pandemic (December 31, 2019–May 22, 2020). The variable integration mix led to the approach of the ARDL model, and the Granger causality test was also employed. These empirical techniques allowed us to examine the cointegration between variables and causal relationships. The econometric results of the ARDL models exhibited that the global new cases and new deaths of COVID‐19 have short and long‐term effects on the environment, the health sector, the oil, and energy measures. However, no significant causal connection was found between the pandemic and the environment, the health sector, or the oil and energy industry, according to the Granger causality test. The uniqueness of current approach consists in the investigation of pandemic impact on the health, environment, oil, and energy sector by applying the ARDL model that permits the analysis of cointegration both in the long run and in the short term. This study provides important insights for investors and policy makers.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daniel Stefan Armeanu
- Faculty of Finance, Insurance, Banking and Stock Exchange, Department of FinanceThe Bucharest University of Economic StudiesBucharestRomania
| | - Stefan Cristian Gherghina
- Faculty of Finance, Insurance, Banking and Stock Exchange, Department of FinanceThe Bucharest University of Economic StudiesBucharestRomania
| | - Jean Vasile Andrei
- Faculty of Economic SciencesPetroleum‐Gas University of PloiestiPloiestiPrahovaRomania
- National Institute for Economic Research ‘Costin C. Kiritescu’Romanian AcademyBucharestRomania
| | - Camelia Catalina Joldes
- Faculty of Finance, Insurance, Banking and Stock Exchange, Department of FinanceThe Bucharest University of Economic StudiesBucharestRomania
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6
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Short-term prediction of Culex quinquefasciatus abundance in Central North Georgia, USA, based on the meteorological variability. Neural Comput Appl 2022. [DOI: 10.1007/s00521-022-07324-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/18/2022]
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7
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Asgarian TS, Moosa-Kazemi SH, Sedaghat MM. Impact of meteorological parameters on mosquito population abundance and distribution in a former malaria endemic area, central Iran. Heliyon 2021; 7:e08477. [PMID: 34934829 PMCID: PMC8661000 DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2021.e08477] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/13/2021] [Revised: 08/28/2021] [Accepted: 11/22/2021] [Indexed: 01/16/2023] Open
Abstract
Meteorological parameters, have been identified as an important factor involved in the transmission of vector-borne diseases. Mosquitoes are extremely sensitive to weather conditions. The aim of this study was investigate the correlation between meteorological parameters and the abundance of mosquitoes in Kashan County. Mosquitoes were collected using four different traps, including hand catch, animal baited bed net trap (usually a cow), human baited bed net trap and BG-Sentinel trap with CO2 from May to December 2019. A total number of mosquitoes collected were 1756 out of which 1621 (92.31%) were Culex, 22 (1.25%) Culiseta and 113 (6.44%) Anopheles in nine species. Most mosquitoes were collected by BG-Sentinel trap with CO2 (63.78%). Monthly distribution of the mosquitoes indicated different monthly peaks. Their high density were recorded in September and were low in December. The spearman's correlation of the mosquito abundance and the meteorological parameters shows that correlation of the number of total collected mosquitoes with relative humidity and precipitation (Rainfall) was weak negative, and there was week correlation with wind speed, and positive strong correlation with temperature. Data collected with various trap types and mosquito correlation with meteorological parameters in this study can be used for mosquito surveillance and control programs. However, meteorological parameters affect the abundance of mosquitoes, but their impact is complex and most of these variables are species specific.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tahereh Sadat Asgarian
- Department of Medical Entomology & Vector Control, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Seyed Hassan Moosa-Kazemi
- Department of Medical Entomology & Vector Control, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Mohammad Mehdi Sedaghat
- Department of Medical Entomology & Vector Control, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
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8
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Does Heterogeneity in COVID-19 News Affect Asset Market? Monte-Carlo Simulation Based Wavelet Transform. JOURNAL OF RISK AND FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT 2021. [DOI: 10.3390/jrfm14100463] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
The current study investigates the connectedness between US COVID-19 news, Dowes Jones Index (DJI), green bonds, gold, and bitcoin prices for the period 22 January 2020–3 August 2021. The study has employed wavelet coherency, the continuous wavelet transform, and the wavelet-based Granger causality methods to obtain the dependence result. The continuous wavelet transform (CWT) analysis reveals that the United States equity market prices are extremely sensitive with regard to spreading coronavirus (USCOVID-19) news and changes in the oil price. Green bonds, gold, and bitcoin have minimal connectedness with the equity market, which might lead to the hedge and safe haven role of these assets during the COVID-19 crisis period. Lastly, very strong comovement was found between bitcoin and gold during the entire sample. The results of the present study offer a number of fresh and noticeable policy implications for international investors and asset managers.
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9
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Vadyala SR, Betgeri SN, Sherer EA, Amritphale A. Prediction of the number of COVID-19 confirmed cases based on K-means-LSTM. ARRAY 2021; 11:100085. [PMID: 35083430 PMCID: PMC8378999 DOI: 10.1016/j.array.2021.100085] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/07/2021] [Accepted: 08/10/2021] [Indexed: 01/25/2023] Open
Abstract
COVID-19 is a pandemic disease that began to rapidly spread in the US, with the first case detected on January 19, 2020, in Washington State. March 9, 2020, and then quickly increased with total cases of 25,739 as of April 20, 2020. Although most people with coronavirus 81%, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), will have little to mild symptoms, others may rely on a ventilator to breathe or not at all. SEIR models have broad applicability in predicting the outcome of the population with a variety of diseases. However, many researchers use these models without validating the necessary hypotheses. Far too many researchers often "overfit" the data by using too many predictor variables and small sample sizes to create models. Models thus developed are unlikely to stand validity check on a separate group of population and regions. The researcher remains unaware that overfitting has occurred, without attempting such validation. In the paper, we present a combination algorithm that combines similar days features selection based on the region using Xgboost, K-Means, and long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks to construct a prediction model (i.e., K-Means-LSTM) for short-term COVID-19 cases forecasting in Louisana state USA. The weighted k-means algorithm based on extreme gradient boosting is used to evaluate the similarity between the forecasts and past days. The results show that the method with K-Means-LSTM has a higher accuracy with an RMSE of 601.20 whereas the SEIR model with an RMSE of 3615.83.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shashank Reddy Vadyala
- Department of Computational Analysis and Modeling, Louisiana Tech University, Ruston, LA, United States
| | - Sai Nethra Betgeri
- Department of Computational Analysis and Modeling, Louisiana Tech University, Ruston, LA, United States
| | - Eric A Sherer
- Department of Chemical Engineering, Louisiana Tech University, Ruston, LA, United States
| | - Amod Amritphale
- Department of Internal Medicine, Division of Cardiology, University of South Alabama, Mobile, AL, United States
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10
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Danforth ME, Fischer M, Snyder RE, Lindsey NP, Martin SW, Kramer VL. Characterizing Areas with Increased Burden of West Nile Virus Disease in California, 2009-2018. Vector Borne Zoonotic Dis 2021; 21:620-627. [PMID: 34077676 PMCID: PMC8380797 DOI: 10.1089/vbz.2021.0014] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/27/2022] Open
Abstract
West Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquito-borne flavivirus that can cause severe neurological disease in humans, for which there is no treatment or vaccine. From 2009 to 2018, California has reported more human disease cases than any other state in the United States. We sought to identify smaller geographic areas within the 10 California counties with the highest number of WNV cases that accounted for disproportionately large numbers of human cases from 2009 to 2018. Eleven areas, consisting of groups of high-burden ZIP codes, were identified in nine counties within southern California and California's Central Valley. Despite containing only 2% of California's area and 17% of the state's population, these high-burden ZIP codes accounted for 44% of WNV cases reported and had a mean annual incidence that was 2.4 times the annual state incidence. Focusing mosquito control and public education efforts in these areas would lower WNV disease burden.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mary E. Danforth
- California Department of Public Health, Sacramento, California, USA
| | - Marc Fischer
- Arboviral Diseases Branch, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
| | - Robert E. Snyder
- California Department of Public Health, Sacramento, California, USA
| | - Nicole P. Lindsey
- Arboviral Diseases Branch, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
| | - Stacey W. Martin
- Arboviral Diseases Branch, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
| | - Vicki L. Kramer
- California Department of Public Health, Sacramento, California, USA
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Muthuraman Y, Lakshminarayanan I. A review of the COVID-19 pandemic and its interaction with environmental media. ENVIRONMENTAL CHALLENGES (AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS) 2021; 3:100040. [PMID: 38620635 PMCID: PMC7866852 DOI: 10.1016/j.envc.2021.100040] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/31/2020] [Revised: 02/03/2021] [Accepted: 02/03/2021] [Indexed: 05/03/2023]
Abstract
Viruses are biologically active parasites that only exist inside a host they are submicroscopic level. The novel coronavirus disease, or COVID-19, is generally caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus and is comparable to severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). As a result of globalization, natural alterations or changes in the SARS-CoV-2 have created significant risks to human health over time. These viruses can live and survive in different ways in the atmosphere unless they reach another host body. At this stage, we will discuss the details of the transmission and detection of this deadly SARS-CoV-2 virus via certain environmental media, such as the atmosphere, water, air, sewage water, soil, temperature, relative humidity, and bioaerosol, to better understand the diffusion, survival, infection potential and diagnosis of COVID-19.
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Key Words
- +ssRNA, single-stranded DNA
- ACE2, Angiotensin-converting enzyme 2
- COVID-19
- COVID-19, coronavirus disease 2019
- CoV, coronavirus
- Diagnosis
- Environmental media
- HCoV, Human coronavirus
- MERS, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome
- MERS-CoV, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus
- MERS-CoV, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus, RSV, Respiratory syncytial virus
- NSP, Non-Structured Protein
- ORFs, Open Reading Frames
- PPE, Personal Protecting Equipments
- RNA, Ribonucleic acid
- SARS, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
- SARS-CoV-2, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2
- Structure
- Transmission
- WHO, World Health Organization
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Affiliation(s)
- Yuvaraj Muthuraman
- Agricultural College and Research Institute, Vazhavachanur, Tiruvannamalai, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, India
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12
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Meteorological parameters and COVID-19 spread-Russia a case study. ENVIRONMENTAL RESILIENCE AND TRANSFORMATION IN TIMES OF COVID-19 2021. [PMCID: PMC8137802 DOI: 10.1016/b978-0-323-85512-9.00033-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/15/2023]
Abstract
An attempt was made in this chaper to understand the meteorological controls on SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) spread in Russia. Russia is one of the most affected country for COVID-19 and significant death cases were recorded. A continuous seven-month data from 31 January to 23 August 2020 from different locations in the country was collected through the commonly available websites. COVID data (total cases (966189), daily new cases (11656), daily deaths (232), and total recovered (777960)) and meteorological parameters (temperature, dew, precipitation, humidity, and wind speed) were used for this analysis. The results show an increasing trend of daily new cases and daily deaths during lock down period, and it gradually decreased or stabilized in the post lock down period. It infers the effectiveness of movement control during the lock down period, that stops further spreading. The positive correlation between COVID cases and temperature indicate that the increase of temperature increases the spreading and vice versa. The negative relationship of humidity with death cases also facilitates the pandemic spread. Thus, the outcome of this study may help to address concerns about the COVID-19 pandemic among the public and policymakers.
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Doğan B, Ben Jebli M, Shahzad K, Farooq TH, Shahzad U. Investigating the Effects of Meteorological Parameters on COVID-19: Case Study of New Jersey, United States. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2020; 191:110148. [PMID: 32877703 PMCID: PMC7456582 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2020.110148] [Citation(s) in RCA: 26] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/22/2020] [Revised: 08/23/2020] [Accepted: 08/23/2020] [Indexed: 05/07/2023]
Abstract
This research aims to explore the correlation between meteorological parameters and COVID-19 pandemic in New Jersey, United States. The authors employ extensive correlation analysis including Pearson correlation, Spearman correlation, Kendall's rank correlation and auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) to check the effects of meteorological parameters on the COVID new cases of New Jersey. In doing so, PM 2.5, air quality index, temperature (°C), humidity (%), health security index, human development index, and population density are considered as crucial meteorological and non-meteorological factors. This research work used the maximum available data of all variables from 1st March to 7th July 2020. Among the weather indicators, temperature (°C) was found to have a negative correlation, while humidity and air quality highlighted a positive correlation with daily new cases of COVID-19 in New Jersey. The empirical findings illustrated that there is a strong positive association of lagged humidity, air quality, PM 2.5, and previous infections with daily new cases. Similarly, the ARDL findings suggest that air quality, humidity and infections have lagged effects with the COVID-19 spread across New Jersey. The empirical conclusions of this research might serve as a key input to mitigate the rapid spread of COVID-19 across the United States.
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Affiliation(s)
- Buhari Doğan
- Department of Economics, Suleyman Demirel University, Isparta, Turkey.
| | - Mehdi Ben Jebli
- FSJEG Jendouba, University of Jendouba, Tunisia & QUARG UR17ES26, ESCT, Campus University of Manouba, 2010, Tunisia.
| | - Khurram Shahzad
- Key Laboratory of Resource Biology and Biotechnology in Western China, Ministry of Education, College of Life Sciences, Northwest University, Xi'an, PR China.
| | - Taimoor Hassan Farooq
- College of Life Science and Technology, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha, 410004, Hunan Province, PR China.
| | - Umer Shahzad
- School of Statistics and Applied Mathematics, Anhui University of Finance and Economics, Bengbu 233030, PR China.
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14
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Shahzad K, Shahzad U, Iqbal N, Shahzad F, Fareed Z. Effects of climatological parameters on the outbreak spread of COVID-19 in highly affected regions of Spain. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2020; 27:39657-39666. [PMID: 32827296 DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-30377/v1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/01/2020] [Accepted: 08/17/2020] [Indexed: 05/22/2023]
Abstract
The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic is infecting the human population, killing people, and destroying livelihoods. This research sought to explore the associations of daily average temperature (AT) and air quality (PM2.5) with the daily new cases of COVID-19 in the top four regions of Spain (Castilla y Leon, Castilla-La Mancha, Catalonia, and Madrid). To this end, the authors employ Pearson correlation, Spearman correlation, and robust panel regressions to quantify the overall co-movement between temperature, air quality, and daily cases of COVID-19 from 29 February to 17 July 2020. Overall empirical results show that temperature may not be a determinant to induce COVID-19 spread in Spain, while the rising temperature may reduce the virus transmission. However, the correlation and regression findings illustrate that air quality may speed up the transmission rate of COVID-19. Our findings are contrary to the earlier studies, which show a significant impact of temperature in raising the COVID-19 spread. The conclusions of this work can serve as an input to mitigate the rapid spread of COVID-19 in Spain and reform policies accordingly.
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Affiliation(s)
- Khurram Shahzad
- Key Laboratory of Resource Biology and Biotechnology in Western China, Ministry of Education, College of Life Sciences, Northwest University, Xi'an, People's Republic of China
| | - Umer Shahzad
- School of Statistics and Applied Mathematics, Anhui University of Finance and Economics, Bengbu, 233030, People's Republic of China.
| | - Najaf Iqbal
- School of Finance, Anhui University of Finance and Economics, Bengbu, 233030, People's Republic of China
| | - Farrukh Shahzad
- School of Economics and Management, Guangdong University of Petrochemical Technology, Maoming, Guangdong, People's Republic of China
| | - Zeeshan Fareed
- School of Business, Huzhou University, Huzhou City, Zhejiang, Province, People's Republic of China
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15
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Shahzad K, Shahzad U, Iqbal N, Shahzad F, Fareed Z. Effects of climatological parameters on the outbreak spread of COVID-19 in highly affected regions of Spain. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2020; 27:39657-39666. [PMID: 32827296 PMCID: PMC7442890 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-020-10551-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 32] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/01/2020] [Accepted: 08/17/2020] [Indexed: 04/15/2023]
Abstract
The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic is infecting the human population, killing people, and destroying livelihoods. This research sought to explore the associations of daily average temperature (AT) and air quality (PM2.5) with the daily new cases of COVID-19 in the top four regions of Spain (Castilla y Leon, Castilla-La Mancha, Catalonia, and Madrid). To this end, the authors employ Pearson correlation, Spearman correlation, and robust panel regressions to quantify the overall co-movement between temperature, air quality, and daily cases of COVID-19 from 29 February to 17 July 2020. Overall empirical results show that temperature may not be a determinant to induce COVID-19 spread in Spain, while the rising temperature may reduce the virus transmission. However, the correlation and regression findings illustrate that air quality may speed up the transmission rate of COVID-19. Our findings are contrary to the earlier studies, which show a significant impact of temperature in raising the COVID-19 spread. The conclusions of this work can serve as an input to mitigate the rapid spread of COVID-19 in Spain and reform policies accordingly.
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Affiliation(s)
- Khurram Shahzad
- Key Laboratory of Resource Biology and Biotechnology in Western China, Ministry of Education, College of Life Sciences, Northwest University, Xi’an, People’s Republic of China
| | - Umer Shahzad
- School of Statistics and Applied Mathematics, Anhui University of Finance and Economics, Bengbu, 233030 People’s Republic of China
| | - Najaf Iqbal
- School of Finance, Anhui University of Finance and Economics, Bengbu, 233030 People’s Republic of China
| | - Farrukh Shahzad
- School of Economics and Management, Guangdong University of Petrochemical Technology, Maoming, Guangdong People’s Republic of China
| | - Zeeshan Fareed
- School of Business, Huzhou University, Huzhou City, Zhejiang, Province People’s Republic of China
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16
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Sharma P, Singh AK, Agrawal B, Sharma A. Correlation between weather and COVID-19 pandemic in India: An empirical investigation. JOURNAL OF PUBLIC AFFAIRS 2020; 20:e2222. [PMID: 32837322 PMCID: PMC7404574 DOI: 10.1002/pa.2222] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/22/2020] [Revised: 06/04/2020] [Accepted: 06/11/2020] [Indexed: 05/07/2023]
Abstract
This study is an attempt to find and analyze the correlation between Covid-19 pandemic and weather conditions in Indian context. Secondary data analysis of surveillance data of COVID-19 is taken from Wikipedia (updating information from World Health Organization) & statista.com and weather data through Power Data Access Viewer (DAV) (power.Iarc.nasa.gov) from NASA after mentioning latitude and longitude of India. The minimum temperature (°C) at 2 metre, maximum temperature (°C) at 2 metre, temperature (°C) at 2 metre and relative humidity (%) are taken as component of weather. To find the association, Spearman's rank correlation test was applied. The minimum, maximum temperature (°C) at 2 m, temperatures (°C) at 2 m and humidity at 2 m are significantly correlated with COVID-19 pandemic cases (r = 0.93, 0.94, 0.83, and 0.30) at 99% two-tailed significance level. The findings serve as an initial evidence to reduce the incidence rate of COVID-19 in India and useful in policy making.
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Affiliation(s)
- Prayas Sharma
- School of BusinessUniversity of Petroleum and Energy StudiesDehradunUttarakhandIndia
| | - Ashish Kumar Singh
- Department of Management StudiesRaj Kumar Goel Institute of TechnologyGhaziabadUttar PradeshIndia
| | - Bharti Agrawal
- Shri Vaishnav Institute of ManagementIndoreMadhya PradeshIndia
| | - Anukriti Sharma
- School of BusinessUniversity of Petroleum and Energy StudiesDehradunUttarakhandIndia
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17
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Relationship between Weather Variables and New Daily COVID-19 Cases in Dhaka, Bangladesh. SUSTAINABILITY 2020. [DOI: 10.3390/su12208319] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/15/2023]
Abstract
The present study investigated the relationship between the transmission of COVID-19 infections and climate indicators in Dhaka, Bangladesh, using coronavirus infections data available from the Institute of Epidemiology, Disease Control and Research (IEDCR), Bangladesh. The Spearman rank correlation test was carried out to study the association of seven climate indicators, including humidity, air quality, minimum temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, mean temperature, and wind speed with the COVID-19 outbreak in Dhaka, Bangladesh. The study found that, among the seven indicators, only two indicators (minimum temperature and average temperature) had a significant relationship with new COVID-19 cases. The study also found that air quality index (AQI) had a strong negative correlation with cumulative cases of COVID-19 in Dhaka city. The results of this paper will give health regulators and policymakers valuable information to lessen the COVID-19 spread in Dhaka and other countries around the world.
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Tosepu R, Gunawan J, Effendy DS, Ahmad LOAI, Lestari H, Bahar H, Asfian P. Correlation between weather and Covid-19 pandemic in Jakarta, Indonesia. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2020; 725:138436. [PMID: 32298883 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv2020.138436] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/02/2020] [Accepted: 04/02/2020] [Indexed: 05/21/2023]
Abstract
This study aims to analyze the correlation between weather and covid-19 pandemic in Jakarta Indonesia. This study employed a secondary data analysis of surveillance data of covid-19 from the Ministry of Health of the Republic of Indonesia and weather from the Meteorological Department of the Republic of Indonesia. The components of weather include minimum temperature (°C), maximum temperature (°C), temperature average (°C), humidity (%), and amount of rainfall (mm). Spearman-rank correlation test was used for data analysis. Among the components of the weather, only temperature average (°C) was significantly correlated with covid-19 pandemic (r = 0.392; p < .01). The finding serves as an input to reduce the incidence rate of covid-19 in Indonesia.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ramadhan Tosepu
- Deparment of Environmental Health, Faculty of Public Health, University of Halu Oleo, Indonesia.
| | - Joko Gunawan
- Poltekkes Kemenkes Pangkal Pinang, Bangka Belitung, Indonesia
| | - Devi Savitri Effendy
- Deparment of Health Nutrition, Faculty of Public Health, University of Halu Oleo, Indonesia
| | - La Ode Ali Imran Ahmad
- Deparment of Health Administration, Faculty of Public Health, University of Halu Oleo, Indonesia
| | - Hariati Lestari
- Deparment of Epidemiology, Faculty of Public Health, University of Halu Oleo, Indonesia
| | - Hartati Bahar
- Deparment of Health Promotion, Faculty of Public Health, University of Halu Oleo, Indonesia
| | - Pitrah Asfian
- Deparment of Occupational Health, Faculty of Public Health, University of Halu Oleo, Indonesia
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19
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Tosepu R, Gunawan J, Effendy DS, Ahmad LOAI, Lestari H, Bahar H, Asfian P. Correlation between weather and Covid-19 pandemic in Jakarta, Indonesia. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2020; 725:138436. [PMID: 32298883 PMCID: PMC7270847 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138436] [Citation(s) in RCA: 387] [Impact Index Per Article: 77.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/02/2020] [Accepted: 04/02/2020] [Indexed: 04/13/2023]
Abstract
This study aims to analyze the correlation between weather and covid-19 pandemic in Jakarta Indonesia. This study employed a secondary data analysis of surveillance data of covid-19 from the Ministry of Health of the Republic of Indonesia and weather from the Meteorological Department of the Republic of Indonesia. The components of weather include minimum temperature (°C), maximum temperature (°C), temperature average (°C), humidity (%), and amount of rainfall (mm). Spearman-rank correlation test was used for data analysis. Among the components of the weather, only temperature average (°C) was significantly correlated with covid-19 pandemic (r = 0.392; p < .01). The finding serves as an input to reduce the incidence rate of covid-19 in Indonesia.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ramadhan Tosepu
- Deparment of Environmental Health, Faculty of Public Health, University of Halu Oleo, Indonesia.
| | - Joko Gunawan
- Poltekkes Kemenkes Pangkal Pinang, Bangka Belitung, Indonesia
| | - Devi Savitri Effendy
- Deparment of Health Nutrition, Faculty of Public Health, University of Halu Oleo, Indonesia
| | - La Ode Ali Imran Ahmad
- Deparment of Health Administration, Faculty of Public Health, University of Halu Oleo, Indonesia
| | - Hariati Lestari
- Deparment of Epidemiology, Faculty of Public Health, University of Halu Oleo, Indonesia
| | - Hartati Bahar
- Deparment of Health Promotion, Faculty of Public Health, University of Halu Oleo, Indonesia
| | - Pitrah Asfian
- Deparment of Occupational Health, Faculty of Public Health, University of Halu Oleo, Indonesia
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20
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Brenner SJ, Jorgensen JG. Declines of Black-Billed Magpie (Pica hudsonia) and Black-Capped Chickadee (Poecile atricapillus) in the North-Central United States Following the Invasion of West Nile Virus. WEST N AM NATURALIST 2020. [DOI: 10.3398/064.080.0208] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/20/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Stephen J. Brenner
- Nongame Bird Program, Nebraska Game and Parks Commission, Lincoln, NE 68503
| | - Joel G. Jorgensen
- Nongame Bird Program, Nebraska Game and Parks Commission, Lincoln, NE 68503
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Camp JV, Nowotny N. The knowns and unknowns of West Nile virus in Europe: what did we learn from the 2018 outbreak? Expert Rev Anti Infect Ther 2020; 18:145-154. [PMID: 31914833 DOI: 10.1080/14787210.2020.1713751] [Citation(s) in RCA: 57] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/12/2022]
Abstract
Introduction: West Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquito-borne human and animal pathogen with nearly worldwide distribution. In Europe, the virus is endemic with seasonal regional outbreaks that have increased in frequency over the last 10 years. A massive outbreak occurred across southern and central Europe in 2018 with the number of confirmed human cases increasing up to 7.2-fold from the previous year, and expanding to include previously virus-free regions.Areas covered: This review focuses on potential causes that may explain the 2018 European WNV outbreak. We discuss the role genetic, ecological, and environmental aspects may have played in the increased activity during the 2018 transmission season, summarizing the latest epidemiological and virological publications.Expert opinion: Optimal environmental conditions, specifically increased temperature, were most likely responsible for the observed outbreak. Other factors cannot be ruled out due to limited available information, including factors that may influence host/vector abundance and contact. Europe will likely experience even larger-scale outbreaks in the coming years. Increased surveillance efforts should be implemented with a focus on early-warning detection methods, and large-scale host and vector surveys should continue to fill gaps in knowledge.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jeremy V Camp
- Viral Zoonoses, Emerging and Vector-Borne Infections Group, Institute of Virology, University of Veterinary Medicine Vienna, Vienna, Austria
| | - Norbert Nowotny
- Viral Zoonoses, Emerging and Vector-Borne Infections Group, Institute of Virology, University of Veterinary Medicine Vienna, Vienna, Austria.,Department of Basic Medical Sciences, College of Medicine, Mohammed Bin Rashid University of Medicine and Health Sciences, Dubai, United Arab Emirates
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22
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Nguyen-Tien T, Lundkvist Å, Lindahl J. Urban transmission of mosquito-borne flaviviruses - a review of the risk for humans in Vietnam. Infect Ecol Epidemiol 2019; 9:1660129. [PMID: 31528273 PMCID: PMC6735309 DOI: 10.1080/20008686.2019.1660129] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/29/2019] [Accepted: 08/20/2019] [Indexed: 01/18/2023] Open
Abstract
Vietnam is a tropical country where mosquito-borne diseases are common. This review explores the transmission of mosquito-borne flaviviruses in urban areas of Vietnam. It concludes that urban transmission has mainly been studied for Dengue virus, and so far, much less for Japanese encephalitis virus. Dengue is the most common flavivirus in Vietnam. Due to fast urbanization and favorable climatic conditions, the viral transmission concentrates mainly to large cities with high population density including Ha Noi, Nha Trang and Ho Chi Minh. Human cases of Japanese encephalitis have been controlled by an expanded immunization program. However, this virus is still circulating throughout the country, also in cities due to the pig rearing practices in urban and peri-urban areas. Zika virus is an additional major concern because it has long circulated in the Northern area and is now increasingly diagnosed in urban areas of the Central, Central Highlands and Southern regions using the same mosquito vectors as Dengue virus. There was alarge outbreak of Zika disease from 2016 to early 2017, with most infections observed in Ho Chi Minh city, the largest town in Vietnam. Other flaviviruses circulate in Vietnam but have not been investigated in terms of urban transmission.
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Affiliation(s)
- Thang Nguyen-Tien
- Department of Medical Biochemistry and Microbiology, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
- International Livestock Research Institute, Hanoi, Vietnam
| | - Åke Lundkvist
- Department of Medical Biochemistry and Microbiology, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Johanna Lindahl
- Department of Medical Biochemistry and Microbiology, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
- International Livestock Research Institute, Hanoi, Vietnam
- Department of Clinical Sciences, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden
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23
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Khan MD, Thi Vu HH, Lai QT, Ahn JW. Aggravation of Human Diseases and Climate Change Nexus. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2019; 16:E2799. [PMID: 31390751 PMCID: PMC6696070 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph16152799] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/17/2019] [Revised: 07/31/2019] [Accepted: 08/01/2019] [Indexed: 01/24/2023]
Abstract
For decades, researchers have debated whether climate change has an adverse impact on diseases, especially infectious diseases. They have identified a strong relationship between climate variables and vector's growth, mortality rate, reproduction, and spatiotemporal distribution. Epidemiological data further indicates the emergence and re-emergence of infectious diseases post every single extreme weather event. Based on studies conducted mostly between 1990-2018, three aspects that resemble the impact of climate change impact on diseases are: (a) emergence and re-emergence of vector-borne diseases, (b) impact of extreme weather events, and (c) social upliftment with education and adaptation. This review mainly examines and discusses the impact of climate change based on scientific evidences in published literature. Humans are highly vulnerable to diseases and other post-catastrophic effects of extreme events, as evidenced in literature. It is high time that human beings understand the adverse impacts of climate change and take proper and sustainable control measures. There is also the important requirement for allocation of effective technologies, maintenance of healthy lifestyles, and public education.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mohd Danish Khan
- Resources Recycling Department, University of Science and Technology, (UST), 217, Gajeong-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon-34113, Korea
- Center for Carbon Mineralization, Mineral Resources Research Division, Korea Institute of Geosciences and Mineral Resources (KIGAM), 124 Gwahak-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon-34132, Korea
| | - Hong Ha Thi Vu
- Center for Carbon Mineralization, Mineral Resources Research Division, Korea Institute of Geosciences and Mineral Resources (KIGAM), 124 Gwahak-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon-34132, Korea
| | - Quang Tuan Lai
- Resources Recycling Department, University of Science and Technology, (UST), 217, Gajeong-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon-34113, Korea
- Center for Carbon Mineralization, Mineral Resources Research Division, Korea Institute of Geosciences and Mineral Resources (KIGAM), 124 Gwahak-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon-34132, Korea
| | - Ji Whan Ahn
- Center for Carbon Mineralization, Mineral Resources Research Division, Korea Institute of Geosciences and Mineral Resources (KIGAM), 124 Gwahak-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon-34132, Korea.
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24
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Caminade C, McIntyre KM, Jones AE. Impact of recent and future climate change on vector-borne diseases. Ann N Y Acad Sci 2019; 1436:157-173. [PMID: 30120891 PMCID: PMC6378404 DOI: 10.1111/nyas.13950] [Citation(s) in RCA: 302] [Impact Index Per Article: 50.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/04/2018] [Revised: 07/12/2018] [Accepted: 07/17/2018] [Indexed: 12/22/2022]
Abstract
Climate change is one of the greatest threats to human health in the 21st century. Climate directly impacts health through climatic extremes, air quality, sea-level rise, and multifaceted influences on food production systems and water resources. Climate also affects infectious diseases, which have played a significant role in human history, impacting the rise and fall of civilizations and facilitating the conquest of new territories. Our review highlights significant regional changes in vector and pathogen distribution reported in temperate, peri-Arctic, Arctic, and tropical highland regions during recent decades, changes that have been anticipated by scientists worldwide. Further future changes are likely if we fail to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Many key factors affect the spread and severity of human diseases, including mobility of people, animals, and goods; control measures in place; availability of effective drugs; quality of public health services; human behavior; and political stability and conflicts. With drug and insecticide resistance on the rise, significant funding and research efforts must to be maintained to continue the battle against existing and emerging diseases, particularly those that are vector borne.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cyril Caminade
- Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, Institute of Infection and Global HealthUniversity of LiverpoolLiverpoolUK
- NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Emerging and Zoonotic InfectionsLiverpoolUK
| | - K. Marie McIntyre
- Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, Institute of Infection and Global HealthUniversity of LiverpoolLiverpoolUK
- NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Emerging and Zoonotic InfectionsLiverpoolUK
| | - Anne E. Jones
- Department of Mathematical SciencesUniversity of LiverpoolLiverpoolUK
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25
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Salama M, Amitai Z, Lustig Y, Mor Z, Weiberger M, Chowers M, Maayan S, Zimhony O, Ben-Ami R, Chazan B, Zaltzman-Bershadsky N, Cohen R, Tsyba E, Sheffer R, Anis E, Glazer Y, Pessah S, Mendelson E, Leshem E. Outbreak of West Nile Virus disease in Israel (2015): A retrospective analysis of notified cases. Travel Med Infect Dis 2018; 28:41-45. [PMID: 30016649 DOI: 10.1016/j.tmaid.2018.07.008] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/23/2018] [Revised: 07/12/2018] [Accepted: 07/13/2018] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND West Nile Virus (WNV) is mosquito-borne virus that is endemic in Israel. In 2015, national disease surveillance demonstrated a sharp increase in disease cases, with 149 cases diagnosed. METHODS Clinical data was extracted from the patients' medical files and laboratory analysis on blood, cerebrospinal fluid or urine was carried out. Data on climate was extracted from the Israel Meteorological Service. RESULTS Neuroinvasive disease was reported in 70% of cases and case-fatality rate was 16%. Simultaneously with the outbreak, an intense heat wave and an upsurge in summer temperatures occurred. CONCLUSIONS Clinical data shows substantial morbidity and mortality of WNV disease in Israel. Climatic measures are consistent with previous reports and point to the importance of temperature monitoring and rapid implementation of preventive environmental measures during the summer to reduce potential mosquito breeding sites. WNV disease should be suspected as a cause of fever or neurologic disease in travelers returning from endemic countries.
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Affiliation(s)
- Matanelle Salama
- Tel Aviv District Health Office, Ministry of Health, Tel Aviv, Israel.
| | - Ziva Amitai
- Tel Aviv District Health Office, Ministry of Health, Tel Aviv, Israel
| | - Yaniv Lustig
- Central Virology Laboratory, Ministry of Health, Tel-Hashomer, Israel
| | - Zohar Mor
- Tel Aviv District Health Office, Ministry of Health, Tel Aviv, Israel
| | - Miriam Weiberger
- Infectious Disease Unit, Assaf Harofeh Medical Center, Israel; Sackler School of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
| | | | - Shlomo Maayan
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Barzilai Medical Center, Israel
| | - Oren Zimhony
- Infectious Diseases, Kaplan Medical Center, Israel
| | - Ronen Ben-Ami
- Infectious Diseases Unit, Tel Aviv Sourasky Medical Center, Tel Aviv, Israel; Sackler School of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
| | | | | | - Regev Cohen
- Infectious Diseases Unit, Sanz Medical Center, Laniado Hospital, Israel
| | - Evgenia Tsyba
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Barzilai Medical Center, Israel
| | - Rivka Sheffer
- Tel Aviv District Health Office, Ministry of Health, Tel Aviv, Israel
| | - Emilia Anis
- Division of Epidemiology, Ministry of Health, Jerusalem, Israel
| | - Yael Glazer
- Division of Epidemiology, Ministry of Health, Jerusalem, Israel
| | - Silvia Pessah
- Division of Epidemiology, Ministry of Health, Jerusalem, Israel
| | - Ella Mendelson
- Central Virology Laboratory, Ministry of Health, Tel-Hashomer, Israel
| | - Eyal Leshem
- Sackler School of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel; Internal Medicine C', The Chaim Sheba Medical Center, Tel Hashomer, Israel
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26
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Wang Y, Pons W, Fang J, Zhu H. The impact of weather and storm water management ponds on the transmission of West Nile virus. ROYAL SOCIETY OPEN SCIENCE 2017; 4:170017. [PMID: 28878963 PMCID: PMC5579078 DOI: 10.1098/rsos.170017] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/16/2017] [Accepted: 07/17/2017] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
West Nile virus (WNV) is the most widely distributed arbovirus in the world and the spread is influenced by complex factors including weather conditions and urban environmental settings like storm water management ponds (SWMP). The purpose of this work was to develop an ordinary differential equation model to explore the impacts of SWMP, temperature and precipitation on WNV vector abundance and the transmission of WNV between mosquito and bird populations. The model was used to analyse how weather conditions and SWMP can influence the basic reproduction number. The results found that an excess of precipitation and fiercer intraspecific competition will reduce vector population and the peak value of infectious vectors and birds. This information can be used to identify measures that would be useful to control larval abundance in SWMP and the transmission of WNV.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yiyuan Wang
- LAMPS, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Wendy Pons
- Environmental Health, Peel Public Health, Ontario, Canada
| | - Jessica Fang
- Toronto and Region Conservation Authority, Brampton, Ontario, Canada
| | - Huaiping Zhu
- LAMPS, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
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27
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Elmberg J, Berg C, Lerner H, Waldenström J, Hessel R. Potential disease transmission from wild geese and swans to livestock, poultry and humans: a review of the scientific literature from a One Health perspective. Infect Ecol Epidemiol 2017; 7:1300450. [PMID: 28567210 PMCID: PMC5443079 DOI: 10.1080/20008686.2017.1300450] [Citation(s) in RCA: 32] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/17/2016] [Accepted: 12/23/2016] [Indexed: 12/16/2022] Open
Abstract
There are more herbivorous waterfowl (swans and geese) close to humans, livestock and poultry than ever before. This creates widespread conflict with agriculture and other human interests, but also debate about the role of swans and geese as potential vectors of disease of relevance for human and animal health. Using a One Health perspective, we provide the first comprehensive review of the scientific literature about the most relevant viral, bacterial, and unicellular pathogens occurring in wild geese and swans. Research thus far suggests that these birds may play a role in transmission of avian influenza virus, Salmonella, Campylobacter, and antibiotic resistance. On the other hand, at present there is no evidence that geese and swans play a role in transmission of Newcastle disease, duck plague, West Nile virus, Vibrio, Yersinia, Clostridium, Chlamydophila, and Borrelia. Finally, based on present knowledge it is not possible to say if geese and swans play a role in transmission of Escherichia coli, Pasteurella, Helicobacter, Brachyspira, Cryptosporidium, Giardia, and Microsporidia. This is largely due to changes in classification and taxonomy, rapid development of identification methods and lack of knowledge about host specificity. Previous research tends to overrate the role of geese and swans as disease vectors; we do not find any evidence that they are significant transmitters to humans or livestock of any of the pathogens considered in this review. Nevertheless, it is wise to keep poultry and livestock separated from small volume waters used by many wild waterfowl, but there is no need to discourage livestock grazing in nature reserves or pastures where geese and swans are present. Under some circumstances it is warranted to discourage swans and geese from using wastewater ponds, drinking water reservoirs, and public beaches. Intensified screening of swans and geese for AIV, West Nile virus and anatid herpesvirus is warranted.
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Affiliation(s)
- Johan Elmberg
- Division of Natural Sciences, Kristianstad University, Kristianstad, Sweden
| | - Charlotte Berg
- Department of Animal Environment and Health, SLU Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Skara, Sweden
| | - Henrik Lerner
- Department of Health Care Sciences, Ersta Sköndal Bräcke University College, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Jonas Waldenström
- Centre for Ecology and Evolution in Microbial Model Systems, Linneaus University, Kalmar, Sweden
| | - Rebecca Hessel
- Division of Natural Sciences, Kristianstad University, Kristianstad, Sweden
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28
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Friese C, Nuyts N. Posthumanist critique and human health: how nonhumans (could) figure in public health research. CRITICAL PUBLIC HEALTH 2017. [DOI: 10.1080/09581596.2017.1294246] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/20/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Carrie Friese
- Sociology Department, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK
| | - Nathalie Nuyts
- Sociology Department, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK
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29
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Rossati A. Global Warming and Its Health Impact. THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF OCCUPATIONAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL MEDICINE 2017; 8:7-20. [PMID: 28051192 PMCID: PMC6679631 DOI: 10.15171/ijoem.2017.963] [Citation(s) in RCA: 142] [Impact Index Per Article: 17.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/21/2016] [Accepted: 11/29/2016] [Indexed: 12/30/2022]
Abstract
Since the mid-19th century, human activities have increased greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide in the Earth's atmosphere that resulted in increased average temperature. The effects of rising temperature include soil degradation, loss of productivity of agricultural land, desertification, loss of biodiversity, degradation of ecosystems, reduced fresh-water resources, acidification of the oceans, and the disruption and depletion of stratospheric ozone. All these have an impact on human health, causing non-communicable diseases such as injuries during natural disasters, malnutrition during famine, and increased mortality during heat waves due to complications in chronically ill patients. Direct exposure to natural disasters has also an impact on mental health and, although too complex to be quantified, a link has even been established between climate and civil violence. Over time, climate change can reduce agricultural resources through reduced availability of water, alterations and shrinking arable land, increased pollution, accumulation of toxic substances in the food chain, and creation of habitats suitable to the transmission of human and animal pathogens. People living in low-income countries are particularly vulnerable. Climate change scenarios include a change in distribution of infectious diseases with warming and changes in outbreaks associated with weather extreme events. After floods, increased cases of leptospirosis, campylobacter infections and cryptosporidiosis are reported. Global warming affects water heating, rising the transmission of water-borne pathogens. Pathogens transmitted by vectors are particularly sensitive to climate change because they spend a good part of their life cycle in a cold-blooded host invertebrate whose temperature is similar to the environment. A warmer climate presents more favorable conditions for the survival and the completion of the life cycle of the vector, going as far as to speed it up as in the case of mosquitoes. Diseases transmitted by mosquitoes include some of the most widespread worldwide illnesses such as malaria and viral diseases. Tick-borne diseases have increased in the past years in cold regions, because rising temperatures accelerate the cycle of development, the production of eggs, and the density and distribution of the tick population. The areas of presence of ticks and diseases that they can transmit have increased, both in terms of geographical extension than in altitude. In the next years the engagement of the health sector would be working to develop prevention and adaptation programs in order to reduce the costs and burden of climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Antonella Rossati
- Department of Infectious Diseases, University Hospital "Maggiore della Carità", Novara, Italy.
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Tantely ML, Goodman SM, Rakotondranaivo T, Boyer S. Review of West Nile virus circulation and outbreak risk in Madagascar: Entomological and ornithological perspectives. Parasite 2016; 23:49. [PMID: 27849515 PMCID: PMC5112766 DOI: 10.1051/parasite/2016058] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/29/2016] [Accepted: 10/23/2016] [Indexed: 12/24/2022] Open
Abstract
West Nile fever (WNF) is a zoonotic disease, occurring nearly globally. In Madagascar, West Nile virus (WNV) was first detected in 1978 from wild birds and the virus is currently distributed across the island, but no epidemic or epizootic period has been recorded. One fatal human case of WNV infection was reported in 2011, suggesting a "tip of the iceberg" phenomenon of a possible WNF epidemic/epizootic on the island. The main objective of this literature-based survey is to review patterns of WNV circulation in Madagascar from the entomological and ornithological points of view. Among the 235 mosquito species described from Madagascar, 29 species are widely associated with WNV infection; 16 of them are found naturally infected with WNV on the island and categorized into major, candidate, and potential vectors of WNV according to their vector capacity. This study upholds the hypothesis that WNV enzooticity is independent of annual movements of migratory birds passing through Madagascar. Moreover, the lack of regular migratory bird flux between Africa and Madagascar would reduce the probability of transmission and the subsequent reintroduction of the virus into locally occurring mosquito species. Given that Palearctic migratory birds are strongly implicated in the transmission of WNV, we highlight notable differences in the movements and species diversity of these birds in Madagascar as compared to eastern and northern Africa. Risk factors from this two-pronged approach are presented for the emergence of WNF outbreak.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michaël Luciano Tantely
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Medical Entomology Unit, Institut Pasteur de Madagascar, Ambatofotsikely BP 1274 Antananarivo 101 Madagascar
| | - Steven M. Goodman
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Field Museum of Natural History 1400 South Lake Shore Drive Chicago
60605 Illinois USA
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Association Vahatra BP 3972 Antananarivo 101 Madagascar
| | - Tsirinaina Rakotondranaivo
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Medical Entomology Unit, Institut Pasteur de Madagascar, Ambatofotsikely BP 1274 Antananarivo 101 Madagascar
| | - Sébastien Boyer
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Medical Entomology Unit, Institut Pasteur de Madagascar, Ambatofotsikely BP 1274 Antananarivo 101 Madagascar
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Semenza JC, Tran A, Espinosa L, Sudre B, Domanovic D, Paz S. Climate change projections of West Nile virus infections in Europe: implications for blood safety practices. Environ Health 2016; 15 Suppl 1:28. [PMID: 26961903 PMCID: PMC4895699 DOI: 10.1186/s12940-016-0105-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 31] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/21/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND West Nile virus (WNV) is transmitted by mosquitoes in both urban as well as in rural environments and can be pathogenic in birds, horses and humans. Extrinsic factors such as temperature and land use are determinants of WNV outbreaks in Europe, along with intrinsic factors of the vector and virus. METHODS With a multivariate model for WNV transmission we computed the probability of WNV infection in 2014, with July 2014 temperature anomalies. We applied the July temperature anomalies under the balanced A1B climate change scenario (mix of all energy sources, fossil and non-fossil) for 2025 and 2050 to model and project the risk of WNV infection in the future. Since asymptomatic infections are common in humans (which can result in the contamination of the donated blood) we estimated the predictive prevalence of WNV infections in the blood donor population. RESULTS External validation of the probability model with 2014 cases indicated good prediction, based on an Area Under Curve (AUC) of 0.871 (SD = 0.032), on the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (ROC). The climate change projections for 2025 reveal a higher probability of WNV infection particularly at the edges of the current transmission areas (for example in Eastern Croatia, Northeastern and Northwestern Turkey) and an even further expansion in 2050. The prevalence of infection in (blood donor) populations in the outbreak-affected districts is expected to expand in the future. CONCLUSIONS Predictive modelling of environmental and climatic drivers of WNV can be a valuable tool for public health practice. It can help delineate districts at risk for future transmission. These areas can be subjected to integrated disease and vector surveillance, outreach to the public and health care providers, implementation of personal protective measures, screening of blood donors, and vector abatement activities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jan C Semenza
- European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Stockholm,, SE-171 83, Sweden.
| | - Annelise Tran
- CIRAD, UPR Animal et Gestion Intégrée des Risques, Montpellier,, F-34093, France.
| | - Laura Espinosa
- European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Stockholm,, SE-171 83, Sweden.
| | - Bertrand Sudre
- European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Stockholm,, SE-171 83, Sweden.
| | - Dragoslav Domanovic
- European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Stockholm,, SE-171 83, Sweden.
| | - Shlomit Paz
- Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, University of Haifa, Mt. Carmel, Haifa,, 31905, Israel.
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Wu X, Lu Y, Zhou S, Chen L, Xu B. Impact of climate change on human infectious diseases: Empirical evidence and human adaptation. ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 2016; 86:14-23. [PMID: 26479830 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2015.09.007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 406] [Impact Index Per Article: 45.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/22/2015] [Revised: 08/28/2015] [Accepted: 09/02/2015] [Indexed: 05/21/2023]
Abstract
Climate change refers to long-term shifts in weather conditions and patterns of extreme weather events. It may lead to changes in health threat to human beings, multiplying existing health problems. This review examines the scientific evidences on the impact of climate change on human infectious diseases. It identifies research progress and gaps on how human society may respond to, adapt to, and prepare for the related changes. Based on a survey of related publications between 1990 and 2015, the terms used for literature selection reflect three aspects--the components of infectious diseases, climate variables, and selected infectious diseases. Humans' vulnerability to the potential health impacts by climate change is evident in literature. As an active agent, human beings may control the related health effects that may be effectively controlled through adopting proactive measures, including better understanding of the climate change patterns and of the compound disease-specific health effects, and effective allocation of technologies and resources to promote healthy lifestyles and public awareness. The following adaptation measures are recommended: 1) to go beyond empirical observations of the association between climate change and infectious diseases and develop more scientific explanations, 2) to improve the prediction of spatial-temporal process of climate change and the associated shifts in infectious diseases at various spatial and temporal scales, and 3) to establish locally effective early warning systems for the health effects of predicated climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiaoxu Wu
- State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
| | - Yongmei Lu
- Department of Geography, Texas State University, San Marcos, TX 78666-4684, USA.
| | - Sen Zhou
- Center for Earth System Sciences, Tsinghua University Beijing, 100084, China
| | - Lifan Chen
- State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
| | - Bing Xu
- State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; Center for Earth System Sciences, Tsinghua University Beijing, 100084, China; Department of Geography, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 84112, USA.
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Yusa A, Berry P, J Cheng J, Ogden N, Bonsal B, Stewart R, Waldick R. Climate Change, Drought and Human Health in Canada. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2015; 12:8359-412. [PMID: 26193300 PMCID: PMC4515727 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph120708359] [Citation(s) in RCA: 67] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/02/2015] [Revised: 07/03/2015] [Accepted: 07/08/2015] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
Droughts have been recorded all across Canada and have had significant impacts on individuals and communities. With climate change, projections suggest an increasing risk of drought in Canada, particularly in the south and interior. However, there has been little research on the impacts of drought on human health and the implications of a changing climate. A review of the Canadian, U.S. and international literature relevant to the Canadian context was conducted to better define these impacts and adaptations available to protect health. Drought can impact respiratory health, mental health, illnesses related to exposure to toxins, food/water security, rates of injury and infectious diseases (including food-, water- and vector-borne diseases). A range of direct and indirect adaptation (e.g., agricultural adaptation) options exist to cope with drought. Many have already been employed by public health officials, such as communicable disease monitoring and surveillance and public education and outreach. However, gaps exist in our understanding of the impacts of short-term vs. prolonged drought on the health of Canadians, projections of drought and its characteristics at the regional level and the effectiveness of current adaptations. Further research will be critical to inform adaptation planning to reduce future drought-related risks to health.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anna Yusa
- Environmental Health Program, Health Canada, 180 Queen St. West, Toronto, ON M5V 3L7, Canada.
| | - Peter Berry
- Climate Change and Health Office, Health Canada, 269 Laurier Ave. West, Ottawa, ON K1A 0K9, Canada.
| | - June J Cheng
- Sherbourne Health Centre, 333 Sherbourne St., Toronto, ON M5A 2S5, Canada.
| | - Nicholas Ogden
- Centre for Food-Borne, Environmental and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Public Health Agency of Canada, 3200 Sicotte, P.O. Box 5000, Saint-Hyacinthe, QC J2S 7C6, Canada.
| | - Barrie Bonsal
- Watershed Hydrology and Ecology Research Division, Environment Canada, 11 Innovation Blvd., Saskatoon, Saskatchewan S7N 3H5, Canada.
| | - Ronald Stewart
- Department of Environment and Geography, University of Manitoba, 70A Dysart Road, Winnipeg, MB R3T 2N2, Canada.
| | - Ruth Waldick
- Environmental Health, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, 960 Carling Avenue, Ottawa, ON K1A 0Z2, Canada.
- Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, Carleton University, 1125 Colonel By Drive, Ottawa, ON K1S 5B6, Canada.
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Semenza JC. Prototype early warning systems for vector-borne diseases in Europe. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2015; 12:6333-51. [PMID: 26042370 PMCID: PMC4483704 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph120606333] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/11/2015] [Revised: 05/21/2015] [Accepted: 05/25/2015] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
Abstract
Globalization and environmental change, social and demographic determinants and health system capacity are significant drivers of infectious diseases which can also act as epidemic precursors. Thus, monitoring changes in these drivers can help anticipate, or even forecast, an upsurge of infectious diseases. The European Environment and Epidemiology (E3) Network has been built for this purpose and applied to three early warning case studies: (1) The environmental suitability of malaria transmission in Greece was mapped in order to target epidemiological and entomological surveillance and vector control activities. Malaria transmission in these areas was interrupted in 2013 through such integrated preparedness and response activities. (2) Since 2010, recurrent West Nile fever outbreaks have ensued in South/eastern Europe. Temperature deviations from a thirty year average proved to be associated with the 2010 outbreak. Drivers of subsequent outbreaks were computed through multivariate logistic regression models and included monthly temperature anomalies for July and a normalized water index. (3) Dengue is a tropical disease but sustained transmission has recently emerged in Madeira. Autochthonous transmission has also occurred repeatedly in France and in Croatia mainly due to travel importation. The risk of dengue importation into Europe in 2010 was computed with the volume of international travelers from dengue affected areas worldwide.These prototype early warning systems indicate that monitoring drivers of infectious diseases can help predict vector-borne disease threats.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jan C Semenza
- European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Tomtebodavagen 11A, SE-171 83 Stockholm, Sweden.
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Occurrence of West Nile virus antibodies in wild birds, horses, and humans in Poland. BIOMED RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2015; 2015:234181. [PMID: 25866767 PMCID: PMC4383358 DOI: 10.1155/2015/234181] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/31/2014] [Revised: 09/16/2014] [Accepted: 09/22/2014] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
Serum samples of 474 wild birds, 378 horses, and 42 humans with meningitis and lymphocytic meningitis were collected between 2010 and 2014 from different areas of Poland. West Nile virus (WNV) antibodies were detected using competition enzyme linked immunosorbent assays: ELISA-1 ID Screen West Nile Competition, IDvet, ELISA-2 ID Screen West Nile IgM Capture, and ELISA-3 Ingezim West Nile Compac. The antibodies were found in 63 (13.29%) out of 474 wild bird serum samples and in one (0.26%) out of 378 horse serum samples. Fourteen (33.33%) out of 42 sera from patients were positive against WNV antigen and one serum was doubtful. Positive samples obtained in birds were next retested with virus microneutralisation test to confirm positive results and cross-reactions with other antigens of the Japanese encephalitis complex. We suspect that positive serological results in humans, birds, and horses indicate that WNV can be somehow closely related with the ecosystem in Poland.
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Abstract
Dengue is a vector-borne disease that causes a substantial public health burden within its expanding range. Several modelling studies have attempted to predict the future global distribution of dengue. However, the resulting projections are difficult to compare and are sometimes contradictory because the models differ in their approach, in the quality of the disease data that they use and in the choice of variables that drive disease distribution. In this Review, we compare the main approaches that have been used to model the future global distribution of dengue and propose a set of minimum criteria for future projections that, by analogy, are applicable to other vector-borne diseases.
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Austin SE, Ford JD, Berrang-Ford L, Araos M, Parker S, Fleury MD. Public health adaptation to climate change in Canadian jurisdictions. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2015; 12:623-51. [PMID: 25588156 PMCID: PMC4306883 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph120100623] [Citation(s) in RCA: 28] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/23/2014] [Accepted: 12/22/2014] [Indexed: 11/24/2022]
Abstract
Climate change poses numerous risks to the health of Canadians. Extreme weather events, poor air quality, and food insecurity in northern regions are likely to increase along with the increasing incidence and range of infectious diseases. In this study we identify and characterize Canadian federal, provincial, territorial and municipal adaptation to these health risks based on publically available information. Federal health adaptation initiatives emphasize capacity building and gathering information to address general health, infectious disease and heat-related risks. Provincial and territorial adaptation is varied. Quebec is a leader in climate change adaptation, having a notably higher number of adaptation initiatives reported, addressing almost all risks posed by climate change in the province, and having implemented various adaptation types. Meanwhile, all other Canadian provinces and territories are in the early stages of health adaptation. Based on publically available information, reported adaptation also varies greatly by municipality. The six sampled Canadian regional health authorities (or equivalent) are not reporting any adaptation initiatives. We also find little relationship between the number of initiatives reported in the six sampled municipalities and their provinces, suggesting that municipalities are adapting (or not adapting) autonomously.
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Affiliation(s)
- Stephanie E Austin
- Department of Geography, McGill University, Burnside Hall Building Room 705, 805 Sherbrooke Street West, Montreal, QC H3A 0B9, Canada.
| | - James D Ford
- Department of Geography, McGill University, Burnside Hall Building Room 705, 805 Sherbrooke Street West, Montreal, QC H3A 0B9, Canada.
| | - Lea Berrang-Ford
- Department of Geography, McGill University, Burnside Hall Building Room 705, 805 Sherbrooke Street West, Montreal, QC H3A 0B9, Canada.
| | - Malcolm Araos
- Department of Geography, McGill University, Burnside Hall Building Room 705, 805 Sherbrooke Street West, Montreal, QC H3A 0B9, Canada.
| | - Stephen Parker
- Enteric Surveillance and Population Studies Division, Centre for Food-borne, Environmental and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Public Health Agency of Canada, 255 Woodlawn Road West, Unit 120, Guelph, ON N1H 8J1, Canada.
| | - Manon D Fleury
- Environmental Issues Division, Public Health Agency of Canada, 255 Woodlawn Road West, Unit 120, Guelph, ON N1H 8J1, Canada.
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Community knowledge and experience of mosquitoes and personal prevention and control practices in Lhasa, Tibet. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2014; 11:9919-37. [PMID: 25250847 PMCID: PMC4199058 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph110909919] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/05/2014] [Revised: 05/27/2014] [Accepted: 09/02/2014] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Since 2009, great public attention has been paid in Lhasa City (Tibet, China) to mosquito bites and accompanying inflammatory complications. However, the potential contribution of knowledge levels, experiences, disease control and preventive practices (KEP) towards mosquitoes has not received much attention. To investigate community KEP concerning mosquitoes in Lhasa, a cross-sectional survey was undertaken in four sub-districts of urban Lhasa in 2012. Questionnaires were designed to collect information regarding socio-demographics and KEP concerning the harmful effects of mosquitoes on participants. The scoring for KEP was developed after consultation of literature. A total of 591 eligible questionnaires were examined. The majority of respondents were female (61.8%) with a mean age of 46 years. Nearly all of the respondents were of Tibetan nationality (97.4%) and living in registered native households (92.7%), who have less than primary school education. The averages of overall score, knowledge score, experience score, and practice score were 9.23, 4.53, 1.80, 2.90, respectively. The registered household with the highest overall score, knowledge score and practice score was non-native. Female subjects with monthly incomes between 1000 and 3000 RMB had higher experience scores. The correlation analysis revealed that significant positive linear correlations existed between knowledge and experience, knowledge and practices, and experience and practices towards mosquitoes. Past experiences with mosquitoes can result in a better knowledge of effective mosquito control practices in the present and the future. Though the average of overall scores related to mosquitoes is high among the participants in Lhasa, however, the knowledge about the ecological habits of mosquitoes should be strengthened. The findings in this study may help to develop strategies and measures of mosquito and mosquito-borne diseases in the future, not only in Lhasa, but also in similar altitude, latitude and longitude regions worldwide.
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Tran A, Sudre B, Paz S, Rossi M, Desbrosse A, Chevalier V, Semenza JC. Environmental predictors of West Nile fever risk in Europe. Int J Health Geogr 2014; 13:26. [PMID: 24986363 PMCID: PMC4118316 DOI: 10.1186/1476-072x-13-26] [Citation(s) in RCA: 58] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/18/2014] [Accepted: 04/16/2014] [Indexed: 11/25/2022] Open
Abstract
Background West Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquito-borne pathogen of global public health importance. Transmission of WNV is determined by abiotic and biotic factors. The objective of this study was to examine environmental variables as predictors of WNV risk in Europe and neighboring countries, considering the anomalies of remotely sensed water and vegetation indices and of temperature at the locations of West Nile fever (WNF) outbreaks reported in humans between 2002 and 2013. Methods The status of infection by WNV in relationship to environmental and climatic risk factors was analyzed at the district level using logistic regression models. Temperature, remotely sensed Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Modified Normalized Difference Water Index (MNDWI) anomalies, as well as population, birds’ migratory routes, and presence of wetlands were considered as explanatory variables. Results The anomalies of temperature in July, of MNDWI in early June, the presence of wetlands, the location under migratory routes, and the occurrence of a WNF outbreak the previous year were identified as risk factors. The best statistical model according to the Akaike Information Criterion was used to map WNF risk areas in 2012 and 2013. Model validations showed a good level of prediction: area under Receiver Operator Characteristic curve = 0.854 (95% Confidence Interval 0.850-0.856) for internal validation and 0.819 (95% Confidence Interval 0.814-0.823) (2012) and 0.853 (95% Confidence Interval 0.850-0.855) (2013) for external validations, respectively. Conclusions WNF incidence is increasing in Europe and WNV is expanding into new areas where it had never been observed before. Our model can be used to direct surveillance activities and public health interventions for the upcoming WNF season.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Jan C Semenza
- Head of Health Determinants Programme, Office of the Chief Scientist, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Office of the Chief Scientist, Stockholm, SE-171 83, Sweden.
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Chevalier V, Tran A, Durand B. Predictive modeling of West Nile virus transmission risk in the Mediterranean Basin: how far from landing? INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2013; 11:67-90. [PMID: 24362544 PMCID: PMC3924437 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph110100067] [Citation(s) in RCA: 31] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/23/2013] [Revised: 12/03/2013] [Accepted: 12/04/2013] [Indexed: 12/14/2022]
Abstract
The impact on human and horse health of West Nile fever (WNF) recently and dramatically increased in Europe and neighboring countries. Involving several mosquito and wild bird species, WNF epidemiology is complex. Despite the implementation of surveillance systems in several countries of concern, and due to a lack of knowledge, outbreak occurrence remains unpredictable. Statistical models may help identifying transmission risk factors. When spatialized, they provide tools to identify areas that are suitable for West Nile virus transmission. Mathematical models may be used to improve our understanding of epidemiological process involved, to evaluate the impact of environmental changes or test the efficiency of control measures. We propose a systematic literature review of publications aiming at modeling the processes involved in WNF transmission in the Mediterranean Basin. The relevance of the corresponding models as predictive tools for risk mapping, early warning and for the design of surveillance systems in a changing environment is analyzed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Véronique Chevalier
- Cirad, UPR AGIRs, Montpellier F-34398, France
- Author to whom correspondence should be addressed; E-Mail: ; Tel.: +33-4-6759-3706; Fax: +33-4-6759-3754
| | - Annelise Tran
- Cirad, UPR AGIRs, Montpellier F-34398, France
- Cirad, UMR TETIS, Montpellier F-34398, France; E-Mail:
| | - Benoit Durand
- Anses, Epidemiology Unit, Laboratoire de Santé Animale, Université Paris-Est, Maisons-Alfort F-94706, France; E-Mail:
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Vector-virus interactions and transmission dynamics of West Nile virus. Viruses 2013; 5:3021-47. [PMID: 24351794 PMCID: PMC3967159 DOI: 10.3390/v5123021] [Citation(s) in RCA: 96] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/02/2013] [Revised: 11/04/2013] [Accepted: 11/06/2013] [Indexed: 12/17/2022] Open
Abstract
West Nile virus (WNV; Flavivirus; Flaviviridae) is the cause of the most widespread arthropod-borne viral disease in the world and the largest outbreak of neuroinvasive disease ever observed. Mosquito-borne outbreaks are influenced by intrinsic (e.g., vector and viral genetics, vector and host competence, vector life-history traits) and extrinsic (e.g., temperature, rainfall, human land use) factors that affect virus activity and mosquito biology in complex ways. The concept of vectorial capacity integrates these factors to address interactions of the virus with the arthropod host, leading to a clearer understanding of their complex interrelationships, how they affect transmission of vector-borne disease, and how they impact human health. Vertebrate factors including host competence, population dynamics, and immune status also affect transmission dynamics. The complexity of these interactions are further exacerbated by the fact that not only can divergent hosts differentially alter the virus, but the virus also can affect both vertebrate and invertebrate hosts in ways that significantly alter patterns of virus transmission. This chapter concentrates on selected components of the virus-vector-vertebrate interrelationship, focusing specifically on how interactions between vector, virus, and environment shape the patterns and intensity of WNV transmission.
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Paz S, Semenza JC. Environmental drivers of West Nile fever epidemiology in Europe and Western Asia--a review. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2013; 10:3543-62. [PMID: 23939389 PMCID: PMC3774453 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph10083543] [Citation(s) in RCA: 112] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/01/2013] [Revised: 07/25/2013] [Accepted: 08/01/2013] [Indexed: 12/14/2022]
Abstract
Abiotic and biotic conditions are both important determinants of West Nile Fever (WNF) epidemiology. Ambient temperature plays an important role in the growth rates of vector populations, the interval between blood meals, viral replication rates and transmission of West Nile Virus (WNV). The contribution of precipitation is more complex and less well understood. In this paper we discuss impacts of climatic parameters (temperature, relative humidity, precipitation) and other environmental drivers (such as bird migration, land use) on WNV transmission in Europe. WNV recently became established in southeastern Europe, with a large outbreak in the summer of 2010 and recurrent outbreaks in 2011 and 2012. Abundant competent mosquito vectors, bridge vectors, infected (viremic) migrating and local (amplifying) birds are all important characteristics of WNV transmission. In addition, certain key climatic factors, such as increased ambient temperatures, and by extension climate change, may also favor WNF transmission, and they should be taken into account when evaluating the risk of disease spread in the coming years. Monitoring epidemic precursors of WNF, such as significant temperature deviations in high risk areas, could be used to trigger vector control programs and public education campaigns.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shlomit Paz
- Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, University of Haifa, Mt. Carmel, Haifa 3498837, Israel
| | - Jan C. Semenza
- European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), Tomtebodavägen 11A, Stockholm 17183, Sweden; E-Mail:
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Chen CC, Epp T, Jenkins E, Waldner C, Curry PS, Soos C. Modeling monthly variation of Culex tarsalis (Diptera: Culicidae) abundance and West Nile Virus infection rate in the Canadian Prairies. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2013; 10:3033-51. [PMID: 23880728 PMCID: PMC3734475 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph10073033] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/07/2013] [Revised: 07/15/2013] [Accepted: 07/16/2013] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
The Canadian prairie provinces of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba have generally reported the highest human incidence of West Nile virus (WNV) in Canada. In this study, environmental and biotic factors were used to predict numbers of Culex tarsalis Coquillett, which is the primary mosquito vector of WNV in this region, and prevalence of WNV infection in Cx. tarsalis in the Canadian prairies. The results showed that higher mean temperature and elevated time lagged mean temperature were associated with increased numbers of Cx. tarsalis and higher WNV infection rates. However, increasing precipitation was associated with higher abundance of Cx. tarsalis and lower WNV infection rate. In addition, this study found that increased temperature fluctuation and wetland land cover were associated with decreased infection rate in the Cx. tarsalis population. The resulting monthly models can be used to inform public health interventions by improving the predictions of population abundance of Cx. tarsalis and the transmission intensity of WNV in the Canadian prairies. Furthermore, these models can also be used to examine the potential effects of climate change on the vector population abundance and the distribution of WNV.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chen-Chih Chen
- Large Animal Clinical Sciences, Western College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Saskatchewan, 52 Campus Drive, Saskatoon, SK S7N 5B4, Canada; E-Mails: (T.E.); (C.W.)
- Author to whom correspondence should be addressed; E-Mail: ; Tel.: +1-306-966-7214; Fax: +1-306-966-7159
| | - Tasha Epp
- Large Animal Clinical Sciences, Western College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Saskatchewan, 52 Campus Drive, Saskatoon, SK S7N 5B4, Canada; E-Mails: (T.E.); (C.W.)
| | - Emily Jenkins
- Department of Veterinary Microbiology, Western College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Saskatchewan, 52 Campus Drive, Saskatoon, SK S7N 5B4, Canada; E-Mail:
| | - Cheryl Waldner
- Large Animal Clinical Sciences, Western College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Saskatchewan, 52 Campus Drive, Saskatoon, SK S7N 5B4, Canada; E-Mails: (T.E.); (C.W.)
| | - Philip S. Curry
- Saskatchewan Ministry of Health, 3475 Albert Street, Regina, SK S4S 6X6, Canada; E-Mail:
| | - Catherine Soos
- Environment Canada, Science & Technology Branch, 115 Perimeter Road, Saskatoon, SK S7N 0X4, Canada; E-Mail:
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Civil society organizations and adaptation to the health effects of climate change in Canada. Public Health 2013; 127:403-9. [PMID: 23583032 DOI: 10.1016/j.puhe.2013.02.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/24/2012] [Revised: 10/16/2012] [Accepted: 02/06/2013] [Indexed: 11/22/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Adaptation will be necessary to cope with the impacts of climate change on the health of Canadians. Civil society organizations (CSOs) have an important role in health adaptation, but it is unknown what actions they are undertaking. OBJECTIVES To identify and examine what adaptations are being developed by CSOs to adapt to the health effects of climate change based on a systematic review of the activities of 190 organizations and 1196 reported adaptation actions. RESULTS There were six key findings: (1) health adaptation actions are predominantly led by environmental CSOs; (2) most actions are occurring at national and regional levels; (3) food and/or water contamination and air quality are dominant climate change stimuli for action; (4) responses predominantly reflect awareness and research activities, with limited evidence of substantive intervention; (5) consideration of vulnerable groups is limited; and (6) climate change is usually considered alongside other factors, if at all. CONCLUSIONS The results indicate a deficit in terms of what needs to be done for health adaptation and what is being done; part of a broader adaptation deficit in Canada. Coordinated adaptation planning at federal and provincial level is needed, involving collaboration between CSOs and public health bodies.
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Paz S, Malkinson D, Green MS, Tsioni G, Papa A, Danis K, Sirbu A, Ceianu C, Katalin K, Ferenczi E, Zeller H, Semenza JC. Permissive summer temperatures of the 2010 European West Nile fever upsurge. PLoS One 2013; 8:e56398. [PMID: 23431374 PMCID: PMC3576399 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0056398] [Citation(s) in RCA: 82] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/03/2012] [Accepted: 01/09/2013] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Abstract
Background In the summer of 2010, Europe experienced outbreaks of West Nile Fever (WNF) in humans, which was preceded by hot spells. The objective of this study was to identify potential drivers of these outbreaks, such as spring and summer temperatures, relative humidity (RH), and precipitation. Methods Pearson and lag correlations, binary and multinomial logistic regressions were used to assess the relationship between the climatic parameters and these outbreaks. Results For human morbidity, significant (<0.05) positive correlations were observed between a number of WNF cases and temperature, with a geographic latitude gradient: northern (“colder”) countries displayed strong correlations with a lag of up to four weeks, in contrast to southern (“warmer”) countries, where the response was immediate. The correlations with RH were weaker, while the association with precipitation was not consistent. Horse morbidity started three weeks later than in humans where integrated surveillance was conducted, and no significant associations with temperature or RH were found for lags of 0 to 4 weeks. Conclusions Significant temperature deviations during summer months might be considered environmental precursors of WNF outbreaks in humans, particularly at more northern latitudes. These insights can guide vector abatement strategies by health practitioners in areas at risk for persistent transmission cycles.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shlomit Paz
- Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, University of Haifa, Haifa, Israel
| | - Dan Malkinson
- Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, University of Haifa, Haifa, Israel
| | | | - Gil Tsioni
- Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, University of Haifa, Haifa, Israel
| | - Anna Papa
- Department of Microbiology, Medical School, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece
| | - Kostas Danis
- Hellenic Centre of Disease Prevention & Control, Athens, Greece
| | - Anca Sirbu
- National Center for Surveillance and Control of Communicable Diseases, Bucharest, Romania
| | - Cornelia Ceianu
- Cantacuzino National Institute for Research and Development in Microbiology and Immunology, Bucharest, Romania
| | | | | | - Herve Zeller
- European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Jan C. Semenza
- European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), Stockholm, Sweden
- * E-mail:
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Calzolari M, Albieri A. Could drought conditions trigger Schmallenberg virus and other arboviruses circulation? Int J Health Geogr 2013; 12:7. [PMID: 23409725 PMCID: PMC3614475 DOI: 10.1186/1476-072x-12-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/09/2012] [Accepted: 01/21/2013] [Indexed: 12/22/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND In 2011, a new orthobunyavirus, named the Schmallenberg virus (SBV), was discovered in Europe. Like the related Shamonda virus, SBV is an arbovirus (arthropod-borne virus). After its discovery, the virus was detected in a wide area in north-western Europe, an unexpected finding in a territory where climatic conditions would not seem ideal for arbovirus transmission. This sudden expansion suggests the effect of 2011 drought as a key factor that may have triggered SBV circulation. The possible influence of drought, recorded in north-western Europe in early 2011, on virus circulation was evaluated. METHODS AND RESULTS The locations of SBV detections in Europe until April 2012 were obtained, and area of virus circulation was evaluated by kernel density estimation. Precipitation data in SBV circulation area, summarized by the 3 month precipitation indexes of May, were compared with precipitation data outside that area, confirming driest conditions in that area. CONCLUSIONS The onset of drought conditions recorded in the SBV detection area in early 2011 may have promoted the circulation of this virus. A correlation between circulation of some arboviruses and drought has been reported elsewhere. This was mainly explained by an effect of water deficit on the environment, which altered the relationships between vectors and reservoirs, but this correlation might be also the result of unknown effects of drought on the vectors. The effect of drought conditions on arbovirus circulation is most likely underestimated and should be considered, since it could promote expansion of arboviruses into new areas in a global warming scenario.
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Johnson BJ, Sukhdeo MVK. Drought-induced amplification of local and regional West Nile virus infection rates in New Jersey. JOURNAL OF MEDICAL ENTOMOLOGY 2013; 50:195-204. [PMID: 23427670 DOI: 10.1603/me12035] [Citation(s) in RCA: 32] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/01/2023]
Abstract
ABSTRACT This study looked at the influence of interannual variations in temperature and precipitation on seasonal mosquito abundances, the prevalence of West Nile virus (family Flaviviridae, genus Flavivirus, WNV) in the northeastern United States, and the capacity for local mosquito communities to maintain and transmit WNV, defined as vector community competence. Vector and virus surveillance took place within Middlesex County in New Jersey over two transmission seasons (2010 and 2011). Drought conditions during the 2010 season were associated with significant increases in the number of blood-fed Culex spp. mosquitoes collected per week, and significant increases in vector community competence, or the ability of local vector communities to transmit WNV, when compared with the wetter and milder 2011 season. These increases were associated with significantly higher weekly WNV infection rates in Culex spp. (i.e., Culex pipiens L. and Culex restuans L.) during the 2010 drought season. On a larger scale, the positive influence of drought on the amplification of WNV was also confirmed at the state level where early seasonal (June-July) increases in temperature and decreases in precipitation were strongly correlated with increases in yearly WNV infection rates over a 9-yr period (2003-2011). These data suggest that there may be clear temperature and precipitation thresholds beyond which epidemic levels of WNV transmission occur.
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Affiliation(s)
- B J Johnson
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Natural Resources, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08901, USA.
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Redshaw CH, Stahl-Timmins WM, Fleming LE, Davidson I, Depledge MH. Potential changes in disease patterns and pharmaceutical use in response to climate change. JOURNAL OF TOXICOLOGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH. PART B, CRITICAL REVIEWS 2013; 16:285-320. [PMID: 23909463 PMCID: PMC3756629 DOI: 10.1080/10937404.2013.802265] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/18/2023]
Abstract
As climate change alters environmental conditions, the incidence and global patterns of human diseases are changing. These modifications to disease profiles and the effects upon human pharmaceutical usage are discussed. Climate-related environmental changes are associated with a rise in the incidence of chronic diseases already prevalent in the Northern Hemisphere, for example, cardiovascular disease and mental illness, leading to greater use of associated heavily used Western medications. Sufferers of respiratory diseases may exhibit exacerbated symptoms due to altered environmental conditions (e.g., pollen). Respiratory, water-borne, and food-borne toxicants and infections, including those that are vector borne, may become more common in Western countries, central and eastern Asia, and across North America. As new disease threats emerge, substantially higher pharmaceutical use appears inevitable, especially of pharmaceuticals not commonly employed at present (e.g., antiprotozoals). The use of medications for the treatment of general symptoms (e.g., analgesics) will also rise. These developments need to be viewed in the context of other major environmental changes (e.g., industrial chemical pollution, biodiversity loss, reduced water and food security) as well as marked shifts in human demographics, including aging of the population. To identify, prevent, mitigate, and adapt to potential threats, one needs to be aware of the major factors underlying changes in the use of pharmaceuticals and their subsequent release, deliberately or unintentionally, into the environment. This review explores the likely consequences of climate change upon the use of medical pharmaceuticals in the Northern Hemisphere.
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Affiliation(s)
- Clare H Redshaw
- European Centre for Environment and Human Health, University of Exeter Medical School, Knowledge Spa, Royal Cornwall Hospital, Truro, Cornwall, United Kingdom.
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Lindahl J, Chirico J, Boqvist S, Thu HTV, Magnusson U. Occurrence of Japanese encephalitis virus mosquito vectors in relation to urban pig holdings. Am J Trop Med Hyg 2012; 87:1076-1082. [PMID: 23033401 PMCID: PMC3516078 DOI: 10.4269/ajtmh.2012.12-0315] [Citation(s) in RCA: 45] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/17/2012] [Accepted: 08/27/2012] [Indexed: 12/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) is transmitted to humans from pigs or birds by mosquitoes. In this study, the association between urban pig keeping and mosquito vectors was analyzed. A total of 7, 419 mosquitoes were collected overnight in urban households with and without pigs in Can Tho City, Vietnam. The most prevalent vectors were Culex tritaeniorhynchus (36%), Cx. gelidus (24%), and Cx. quinquefasciatus (15%), which were present in all parts of the city. Pigs were associated with increased numbers of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus. Traps close to pigs had higher numbers of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus and Cx. gelidus than traps close to humans. Increased number of persons in the household was associated with increased numbers of Cx. quinquefasciatus. We demonstrate that JEV vector species are present at urban households with and without pigs, and show that keeping pigs in an urban area increase the number of mosquitoes competent as vectors for JEV.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | | | - Ulf Magnusson
- Department of Clinical Sciences, National Veterinary Institute, Department of Virology, Immunobiology and Parasitology, and Department of Biomedicine and Veterinary Public Health Swedish, University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden; Department of Veterinary Medicine, Can Tho University, Can Tho, Vietnam
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