The epidemiology of influenza

Unusual pediatric lung infections: imaging findings

Pediatric lung infections continue to be a leading cause of pediatric morbidity and mortality. Although both pediatric and general radiologists are familiar with typical lung infections and their imaging findings in children, relatively rare lung infections continue to present a diagnostic challenge. In addition, the advances in radiological imaging and emergence of several new lung infections in recent years facilitated the need for up-to-date knowledge on this topic. In this review article, we discuss the imaging findings of pediatric lung infections caused by unusual/uncommon and new pathogens. We review the epidemiological, clinical, and radiological imaging findings of viral (coronavirus disease 2019, Middle East respiratory syndrome, bird flu), bacterial (Streptococcus anginosus, Francisella tularensis, Chlamydia psittaci), and parasitic lung infections (echinococcosis, paragonimiasis, amoebiasis). Additional disorders whose clinical course and imaging findings may mimic lung infections in children (hypersensitivity pneumonitis, pulmonary hemorrhage, eosinophilic pneumonia) are also presented, to aid in differential diagnosis. As the clinical presentation of children with new and unusual lung infections is often non-specific, imaging evaluation plays an important role in initial detection, follow-up for disease progression, and assessment of potential complications.

Forecasting influenza hospital admissions within English sub-regions using hierarchical generalised additive models

BACKGROUND

Seasonal influenza places a substantial burden annually on healthcare services. Policies during the COVID-19 pandemic limited the transmission of seasonal influenza, making the timing and magnitude of a potential resurgence difficult to ascertain and its impact important to forecast.

METHODS

We have developed a hierarchical generalised additive model (GAM) for the short-term forecasting of hospital admissions with a positive test for the influenza virus sub-regionally across England. The model incorporates a multi-level structure of spatio-temporal splines, weekly cycles in admissions, and spatial correlation. Using multiple performance metrics including interval score, coverage, bias, and median absolute error, the predictive performance is evaluated for the 2022-2023 seasonal wave. Performance is measured against autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and Prophet time series models.

RESULTS

Across the epidemic phases the hierarchical GAM shows improved performance, at all geographic scales relative to the ARIMA and Prophet models. Temporally, the hierarchical GAM has overall an improved performance at 7 and 14 day time horizons. The performance of the GAM is most sensitive to the flexibility of the smoothing function that measures the national epidemic trend.

CONCLUSIONS

This study introduces an approach to short-term forecasting of hospital admissions for the influenza virus using hierarchical, spatial, and temporal components. The methodology was designed for the real time forecasting of epidemics. This modelling framework was used across the 2022-2023 winter for healthcare operational planning by the UK Health Security Agency and the National Health Service in England.

Editorial: Global Surveillance of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Viruses in Poultry, Wild Birds, and Mammals to Prevent a Human Influenza Pandemic

Strains of avian influenza A, believed to have originated in poultry with transmission to wild birds, have been associated with epidemics and four major pandemics in humans in the past century. The 1918 influenza pandemic was caused by an avian strain of the influenza A(H1N1) virus that initially adapted to infect humans and then rapidly spread between humans. Since 2021, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus subtypes have been identified in poultry and wild birds. In October 2022, the HPAI virus variant A(H5N1) was isolated from intensively farmed American mink. The World Health Organization (WHO), the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and the European Union Reference Laboratory for Avian Influenza (EURL) have stated that the risk of human infection from birds and mammals and human-to-human transmission from known HPAI viruses is currently low. However, they recommend increased infection surveillance and preparedness. This editorial aims to present the status of HPAI virus transmission in poultry, wild birds, and mammals to highlight the importance of international infection surveillance, control, and preparedness to prevent the next human influenza pandemic.

Expanding the Pathogen Panel in Wastewater Epidemiology to Influenza and Norovirus

Since the start of the 2019 pandemic, wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has proven to be a valuable tool for monitoring the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2. With methods and infrastructure being settled, it is time to expand the potential of this tool to a wider range of pathogens. We used over 500 archived RNA extracts from a WBE program for SARS-CoV-2 surveillance to monitor wastewater from 11 treatment plants for the presence of influenza and norovirus twice a week during the winter season of 2021/2022. Extracts were analyzed via digital PCR for influenza A, influenza B, norovirus GI, and norovirus GII. Resulting viral loads were normalized on the basis of NH4-N. Our results show a good applicability of ammonia-normalization to compare different wastewater treatment plants. Extracts originally prepared for SARS-CoV-2 surveillance contained sufficient genomic material to monitor influenza A, norovirus GI, and GII. Viral loads of influenza A and norovirus GII in wastewater correlated with numbers from infected inpatients. Further, SARS-CoV-2 related non-pharmaceutical interventions affected subsequent changes in viral loads of both pathogens. In conclusion, the expansion of existing WBE surveillance programs to include additional pathogens besides SARS-CoV-2 offers a valuable and cost-efficient possibility to gain public health information.

The Continued Threat of Influenza A Viruses

Influenza A virus (IAV) is a major cause of respiratory infections worldwide, with the most severe cases occurring in the very young and in elderly individuals [...]

Editorial: A Decline in Influenza During the COVID-19 Pandemic and the Emergence of Potential Epidemic and Pandemic Influenza Viruses

There have been five viral pandemics in the past century, four were due to influenza, and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is due to SARS-CoV-2 infection. During the COVID-19 pandemic, there has been a 99% global reduction in the diagnosis of influenza. Also, from 2020, global mortality rates from influenza fell to record levels during the influenza seasons in the southern and northern hemispheres. However, as social restrictions become lifted and the winter season begins in the northern hemisphere, it is expected that influenza will re-emerge. The World Health Organization (WHO) FluNet surveillance platform provides global surveillance data on influenza, and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) records national weekly infection rates. Both surveillance programs have identified zoonotic avian and swine influenza variants in humans. The WHO Pandemic Influenza Preparedness (PIP) Framework requires WHO Member States to share data on cases of emerging influenza viruses with pandemic potential in a regular and timely way. The WHO PIP Framework organizes the Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System (GISRS), a global network of public health laboratories developing candidate virus vaccines. This Editorial aims to present the reasons for concern regarding the emergence of pandemic influenza viruses driven by the social and public health responses to the COVID-19 pandemic and highlights the importance of global influenza surveillance at this time.

Prevalence and predictors of influenza vaccination among residents of long-term care facilities

Influenza is a respiratory illness which results in significant morbidity and mortality, especially in the older population. Older people living in Long-Term Care Facilities (LTCFs) have a significantly higher risk of infection and complications from influenza. Influenza vaccine is considered the best strategy to prevent infection in high-risk populations. In Australia, the Communicable Diseases Network Australia (CNDA) suggests a vaccination coverage rate of 95% in both staff and residents¹. This study aims to measure the vaccination coverage rates for residents in LTCFs and identify predictors of vaccination uptake for these individuals. This study was conducted in nine LTCFs in four sites from March to September 2018. This was done via medical record reviews for residents over 65 years old in these LTCFs, collecting information such as vaccination status, age, gender, ethnicity and occupation. Simple and multivariable logistic regression was used to calculate the Odds Ratio (OR) to determine significant predictors of influenza vaccination uptake. The overall vaccination rate among LTCF residents was 83.6%. Significant predictors of vaccination were LTCF location, ethnicity and previous year vaccination status. Residents in LTCF Site D were less likely to be vaccinated compared to Site A (OR 0.11, 95% CI 0.02-0.61), non-Caucasians were less likely to get vaccinated (OR 0.09, 95% CI 0.01-0.67), and residents who refused the 2017 vaccine were less likely to be vaccinated (OR 0.04, 95% CI 0.01-0.15). Compared with previous Australian studies on LTCF vaccination rates, the overall vaccination rate was high in these LTCFs (83.6% versus 66-84%), but it varied across different sites. Reasons for varying vaccination rates should be explored further - for example, lower rates in non-Caucasians with diverse cultural backgrounds. Better understanding the causes of under-vaccination can help improve vaccination programs in LTCFs.

p-STAT1 regulates the influenza A virus replication and inflammatory response in vitro and vivo

Influenza A virus infection activates various intracellular signaling pathways, which is mediated by the transcription factors. Here, a quantitative phosphoproteomic analysis of A549 cells after infection with influenza A virus (H5N1) was performed and we found that the transcription factor STAT1 was highly activated. Unexpectedly, upon inhibition of p-STAT1, titers of progeny virus and viral protein synthesis were both reduced. The STAT1 inhibitor Fludarabine (FLUD) inhibited an early progeny step in viral infection and reduced the levels of influenza virus genomic RNA (vRNA). Concomitantly, there was reduced expression of inflammatory cytokines in p-STAT1 inhibited cells. In vivo, suppression of p-STAT1 improved the survival of H5N1 virus-infected mice, reduced the pulmonary inflammatory response and viral burden. Thus, our data demonstrated a critical role for p-STAT1 in influenza virus replication and inflammatory responses. We speculate that STAT1 is an example of a putative antiviral signaling component to support effective replication.

Outbreak of influenza A in a boarding school in South Africa, 2016

Introduction

We investigated an outbreak of influenza-like illness (ILI) at a boarding school in Eastern Cape Province, South Africa. We aimed to confirm the etiological agent, estimate attack rates and identify risk factors for illness.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective cohort study including senior school boarders (n=308). Students with ILI (cough and fever) were identified through school medical records. We also conducted a questionnaire-based cross-sectional study among senior students including boarders (n=107) and day students (n=45). We collected respiratory specimens for respiratory pathogen testing by real-time polymerase chain reaction from a subset of symptomatic students. We calculated attack rates of medically attended ILI (medILI) and identified factors associated with medILI using logistic regression. We calculated seasonal influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) against medILI.

Results

Influenza A (H3N2) virus was detected in 61% (23/38) of specimens. Attack rate for medILI was 13% among boarders (39/308) in the cohort study and 20% in both day students (9/45) and boarders (21/107) in the cross-sectional study. Playing squash was associated with medILI (aOR 5.35, 95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 1.68-17.07). Of the boarders, 19% (57/308) were vaccinated before the outbreak. The adjusted VE against medILI was 18% (aOR 0.82, 95% CI 0.38-1.78). The outbreak led to cancellation of several events and the need for academic remedial sessions.

Conclusion

We confirmed an influenza A (H3N2) virus outbreak with a high attack rate. The outbreak affected academic and sports activities. Participation in sports and social gatherings while experiencing ILI should be discouraged to reduce viral transmission and impact on school activities.

Potential common factors associated with predisposition to common cold in middle-aged and elderly Japanese: A community-based cross-sectional study

People worldwide frequently catch a common cold, which occasionally develops into secondary severe conditions such as pneumonia. However, it is unclear whether predisposition to the common cold is associated with the individual's characteristics including age, body weight, lifestyles, diets, and intestinal functions, besides exposure to a responsible pathogen. We addressed this issue epidemiologically considering many relevant clinical factors.We reviewed data from a cross-sectional study consisting of 39,524 apparently healthy Japanese aged 40 to 79 years (26,975 men and 12,549 women) who underwent a checkup in 2007. Self-reported predisposition to common cold (SPCC) and relevant clinical conditions and parameters were considered.We observed no significant difference in most clinical parameters including age, body mass index (BMI), glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), and prevalence of men and current smokers between subjects with and without SPCC. In univariate analysis, circulating white blood cell (WBC) count and serum alanine-aminotransferase (ALT) were significantly higher in subjects with SPCC than in those without, whereas serum high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and duration of sleep were lower. In logistic regression analysis after full adjustment for relevant confounding factors, BMI categories except BMI of ≥27.0 kg/m were significantly associated with SPCC compared with BMI of 23.0 to 24.9 kg/m. Short duration of sleep (≤5 hours), occasional alcohol drinking, and no-exercise were significantly associated with SPCC compared with 7 hours sleep duration, no-drinking alcohol, and low frequent exercise (twice per month), respectively. All gastrointestinal disorders (gastric complaints, constipation, and diarrhea) were independently associated with SPCC. Imbalanced diet and taking a snack were also associated with SPCC in a degree dependent manner. Furthermore, WBC count, serum ALT, and HDL-C (as continuous variables) were associated with SPCC (HDL-C was inversely), whereas no significant association was observed between SPCC and age, smoking, HbA1c, and pharmacotherapy for diabetes, hypertension, and dyslipidemia.Our results demonstrated that multifactorial conditions and parameters might be simultaneously associated with the predisposition to common cold. Prospective studies including detailed common cold questionnaire and measurements are needed to confirm currently suspected causative and protective factors.

Estimating the annual attack rate of seasonal influenza among unvaccinated individuals: A systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

Seasonal influenza affects millions of people globally each year, causing significant morbidity and mortality. However, there remains substantial uncertainty about the attack rate (incidence) of influenza, particularly in unvaccinated individuals.

METHODS

We undertook a systematic review of vaccine randomised controlled trials (RCTs) that reported on laboratory-confirmed seasonal influenza in the placebo arm. We calculated the influenza attack rate from included studies as the number of laboratory-confirmed positive seasonal influenza cases in the placebo arm divided by the total number of subjects in this arm. A random effects meta-analysis was conducted to estimate the influenza attack rate among unvaccinated individuals (both symptomatic only as well as symptomatic and asymptomatic combined).

RESULTS

We included 32 RCTs that had a total of 13,329 participants. The pooled estimates for symptomatic influenza were 12.7% (95%CI 8.5%, 18.6%) for children (<18 years), 4.4% (95%CI 3.0%, 6.3%) for adults, and 7.2% (95%CI 4.3%, 12.0%) for older people (65 years and above). The pooled estimates for symptomatic and asymptomatic influenza combined for all influenza were 22.5% (95%CI 9.0%, 46.0%) for children and 10.7% (95%CI 4.5%, 23.2%) for adults. Only one study was identified for symptomatic and asymptomatic combined in older people which had a rate of 8.8% (95%CI 7.0%, 10.8%). There was substantial heterogeneity between studies.

CONCLUSION

Overall, we found that approximately 1 in 5 unvaccinated children and 1 in 10 unvaccinated adults were estimated to be infected by seasonal influenza annually, with rates of symptomatic influenza roughly half of these estimates. Our findings help to establish the background risk of seasonal influenza infection in unvaccinated individuals.

Behavioural consequences of vaccination recommendations: An experimental analysis

Annual vaccination is the most effective way to prevent seasonal influenza. However, globally, the recommendations vary from country to country, ranging from universal recommendations, risk-group-specific recommendations, to no recommendation at all. Due to high diversity both in recommendation practice and country-specific preconditions, it is difficult to determine the effect of different recommendations on vaccine uptake. This incentivised laboratory experiment (N = 288) tests the behavioural consequences of different recommendations in a repeated interactive vaccination game. The participants are part of heterogeneous groups, comprised of low- and high-risk type of players. They receive either a universal, risk-group-specific or no recommendation prior to their vaccination decisions. Results show that individuals are sensitive to the recommendations. In detail, a risk-group-specific recommendation increases vaccine uptake of high-risk types. However, at the same time, it decreases vaccine uptake of low-risk types. The results imply that when the proportion of low-risk types in a population is considerably larger than the high-risk group, a risk-group-specific (vs. universal) recommendation comes at the cost of decreased social benefit of vaccination due to the overall lower vaccine uptake. Policy decision-making should therefore complement epidemiological considerations with potential positive and negative behavioural consequences of vaccination recommendations.

DNAzymes Dz13 target the c-jun possess antiviral activity against influenza A viruses

The emergence of anti-influenza A virus drugs resistant strain highlights the need for more effective therapy. Our earlier study demonstrated that c-jun, a downstream molecule of JNK, might be important in viral infections and inflammatory responses. In the present study, we explored the function of DNAzymes Dz13 that target c-jun in influenza A virus infected mice. Dz13 displayed non-toxic side effects on A549 cells and BALB/c mice. Moreover, Dz13-treated mice had enhanced survival after influenza compared with untreated mice. Simultaneously, the pulmonary inflammatory responses and viral burden were decreased in Dz13 treated mice. Furthermore, proliferation levels of infection-induced CD4⁺ and CD8⁺ T cells were impaired. These data demonstrated that Dz13 could reduce viral replication and inflammatory response in vivo, suggesting that Dz13 may potentially be used to treat influenza A viral infection.

Full Genome Characterization of Human Influenza A/H3N2 Isolates from Asian Countries Reveals a Rare Amantadine Resistance-Conferring Mutation and Novel PB1-F2 Polymorphisms

Influenza A viruses evolve at a high rate requiring continuous monitoring to maintain the efficacy of vaccines and antiviral drugs. We performed next generation sequencing analysis of 100 influenza A/H3N2 isolates collected in four Asian countries (Japan, Lebanon, Myanmar, and Vietnam) during 2012-2015. Phylogenetic analysis revealed several reassortment events leading to the circulation of multiple clades within the same season. This was particularly evident during the 2013 and 2013/2014 seasons. Importantly, our data showed that certain lineages appeared to be fitter and were able to persist into the following season. The majority of A/H3N2 viruses continued to harbor the M2-S31N mutation conferring amantadine-resistance. In addition, an S31D mutation in the M2-protein, conferring a similar level of resistance as the S31N mutation, was detected in three isolates obtained in Japan during the 2014/2015 season. None of the isolates possessed the NA-H274Y mutation conferring oseltamivir-resistance, though a few isolates were found to contain mutations at the catalytic residue 151 (D151A/G/N or V) of the NA protein. These variations did not alter the susceptibility to neuraminidase inhibitors and were not detected in the original clinical specimens, suggesting that they had been acquired during their passage in MDCK cells. Novel polymorphisms were detected in the PB1-F2 open-reading frame resulting in truncations in the protein of 24-34 aminoacids in length. Thus, this study has demonstrated the utility of monitoring the full genome of influenza viruses to allow the detection of the potentially fittest lineages. This enhances our ability to predict the strain(s) most likely to persist into the following seasons and predict the potential degree of vaccine match or mismatch with the seasonal influenza season for that year. This will enable the public health and clinical teams to prepare for any related healthcare burden, depending on whether the vaccine match is predicted to be good or poor for that season.

The c-Jun N-terminal kinase (JNK) is involved in H5N1 influenza A virus RNA and protein synthesis

The activation of c-jun N-terminal kinases (JNK) was previously shown to be required for efficient influenza A virus replication, although a detailed mechanism has not been reported. In this study, we found that replication of H5N1 influenza virus was influenced by the JNK inhibitor SP600125. The results of time course experiments suggested that SP600125 inhibited an early post-entry step of viral infection but did not affect nucleocytoplasmic trafficking of the viral ribonucleoprotein complex. The levels of influenza virus genomic RNA (vRNA), but not the corresponding cRNA or mRNA, were specifically reduced by SP600125 in virus-infected cells, indicating that the JNK protein is intimately involved in vRNA synthesis. Additionally, SP600125 affected H5N1 virus protein synthesis, because NS1, PB1, PB2, HA and M1 protein production was impaired. Thus, our data demonstrated a critical role of the JNK protein in the regulation of vRNA and protein synthesis during virus infection. This enhances our understanding of the complicated signal transduction network involved in influenza A virus replication.

Seasonality of absolute humidity explains seasonality of influenza-like illness in Vietnam

BACKGROUND

Experimental and ecological studies have shown the role of climatic factors in driving the epidemiology of influenza. In particular, low absolute humidity (AH) has been shown to increase influenza virus transmissibility and has been identified to explain the onset of epidemics in temperate regions. Here, we aim to study the potential climatic drivers of influenza-like illness (ILI) epidemiology in Vietnam, a tropical country characterized by a high diversity of climates. We specifically focus on quantifying and explaining the seasonality of ILI.

METHODS

We used 18 years (1993-2010) of monthly ILI notifications aggregated by province (52) and monthly climatic variables (minimum, mean, maximum temperatures, absolute and relative humidities, rainfall and hours of sunshine) from 67 weather stations across Vietnam. Seasonalities were quantified from global wavelet spectra, using the value of the power at the period of 1 year as a measure of the intensity of seasonality. The 7 climatic time series were characterized by 534 summary statistics which were entered into a regression tree to identify factors associated with the seasonality of AH. Results were extrapolated to the global scale using simulated climatic times series from the NCEP/NCAR project.

RESULTS

The intensity of ILI seasonality in Vietnam is best explained by the intensity of AH seasonality. We find that ILI seasonality is weak in provinces experiencing weak seasonal fluctuations in AH (annual power <17.6), whereas ILI seasonality is strongest in provinces with pronounced AH seasonality (power >17.6). In Vietnam, AH and ILI are positively correlated.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results identify a role for AH in driving the epidemiology of ILI in a tropical setting. However, in contrast to temperate regions, high rather than low AH is associated with increased ILI activity. Fluctuation in AH may be the climate factor that underlies and unifies the seasonality of ILI in both temperate and tropical regions. Alternatively, the mechanism of action of AH on disease transmission may be different in cold-dry versus hot-humid settings.

Small intestinal injury in mice infected with respiratory influenza A virus: evidence for virus induced gastroenteritis

OBJECTIVES

Influenza in humans is often accompanied by gastroenteritis-like symptoms such as diarrhea and abdominal pain nausea, but the underlying mechanism remains unclear.

RESULTS

Mice infected with three subtypes of respiratory influenza A virus (IAV), particularly H5N1 and H7N2, developed intestinal injury. The avian H5N1 and H7N2 IAV were detected in the small intestine, whereas the human H1N1 was not detected. Section staining with the sialic acid (SA) receptor demonstrated that the small intestine mainly expressed SA α2, 3 Gal instead of SA α2, 6 Gal which preferentially binds to avian IAV. The number of goblet and sIgA cells in the small intestine increased, whereas CD4(+) and CD8(+) T cells decreased in all infected mice except for CD8(+) T cells increased in H7N2 infected mice.

CONCLUSIONS

Respiratory IAV infection, particularly infected by avian IAV, can cause small intestine structural damage and modify the local immune response, thereby resulting in gastroenteritis-like symptoms.

Factors affecting the success of influenza laboratory diagnosis

Influenza is one of the most common human infectious diseases, and has profound health and economic consequences. The laboratory diag- nosis of influenza virus infections plays an important role in the global surveillance of influenza. Therefore, there is a growing demand for highly sensitive and rapid methods for detecting influenza. The performance of particular diagnostic methods is affected by various factors. In this study, we assess the effects of patients' age and time to diagnosis on the probability of detecting influenza using four diagnostic methods (virus isolation, rapid test, RT-PCR and real-time RT-PCR). We examined 3,546 samples from central and eastern Slovakia during the influenza seasons from 2005-2006 to 2010-2011. In general, the probability of influenza detection significantly decreased with the time from onset of illness to sample collection (T1) as well as with patients' age (AGE). On the contrary, time from sample collection to delivery (T2) did not play a role in the prob- ability of influenza detection. As judged by odds ratios, the virus isolation method was most sensitive to T1, followed by the rapid test and RT-PCR methods. For the effect of AGE, the rapid test and virus isolation methods were more sensitive than PCR-based methods. The effects of T1 and AGE were independent of each other. Laboratories which participate in inifluenza surveillance should use several methods to enable rapid and accurate influenza A and B virus detection.

The community impact of the 2009 influenza pandemic in the WHO European region: a comparison with historical seasonal data from 28 countries

BACKGROUND

The world has recently experienced the first influenza pandemic of the 21st century that lasted 14 months from June 2009 to August 2010. This study aimed to compare the timing, geographic spread and community impact during the winter wave of influenza pandemic A (H1N1) 2009 to historical influenza seasons in countries of the WHO European region.

METHODS

We assessed the timing of pandemic by comparing the median peak of influenza activity in countries of the region during the last seven influenza seasons. The peaks of influenza activity were selected by two independent researchers using predefined rules. The geographic spread was assessed by correlating the peak week of influenza activity in included countries against the longitude and latitude of the central point in each country. To assess the community impact of pandemic influenza, we constructed linear regression models to compare the total and age-specific influenza-like-illness (ILI) or acute respiratory infection (ARI) rates reported by the countries in the pandemic season to those observed in the previous six influenza seasons.

RESULTS

We found that the influenza activity reached its peak during the pandemic, on average, 10.5 weeks (95% CI 6.4-14.2) earlier than during the previous 6 seasons in the Region, and there was a west to east spread of pandemic A(H1N1) influenza virus in the western part of the Region. A regression analysis showed that the total ILI or ARI rates were not higher than historical rates in 19 of the 28 countries. However, in countries with age-specific data, there were significantly higher consultation rates in the 0-4 and/or 5-14 age groups in 11 of the 20 countries.

CONCLUSIONS

Using routine influenza surveillance data, we found that pandemic influenza had several differential features compared to historical seasons in the region. It arrived earlier, caused significantly higher number of outpatient consultations in children in most countries and followed west to east spread that was previously observed during some influenza seasons with dominant A (H3N2) ifluenza viruses. The results of this study help to understand the epidemiology of 2009 influenza pandemic and can be used for pandemic preparedness planning.

Clinical and socioeconomic impact of seasonal and pandemic influenza in adults and the elderly

Influenza epidemics and pandemics carry a heavy socioeconomic burden. Hospitalization and treatment are more often necessary in high-risk patients, such as the elderly. However, the impact of influenza is not negligible even in adults, mainly because of lost productivity. The World Health Organization estimates that seasonal influenza causes 250,000-500,000 deaths worldwide each year; however, mortality may be very high in pandemic periods. Many estimates of the costs of seasonal influenza have been made in various socioeconomic contexts. For instance, among the adult population in Italy, a cost of €940.39 per case has been estimated. In the US, the average annual influenza burden in 18-49-y-old adults without underlying medical conditions is judged to include approximately 32,000 hospitalizations and 680 deaths. Estimating the influenza burden is a useful aid to determining the best influenza vaccination strategy and preventive and clinical treatments.

Influenza virus and cell signaling pathways

Influenza viruses comprise a major class of human respiratory pathogens, responsible for causing morbidity and mortality worldwide. Influenza A virus, due to its segmented RNA genome, is highly subject to mutation, resulting in rapid formation of variants. During influenza infection, viral proteins interact with host proteins and exploit a variety of cellular pathways for their own benefit. Influenza virus inhibits the synthesis of these cellular proteins and facilitates expression of its own proteins for viral transcription and replication. Infected cell pathways are hijacked by an array of intracellular signaling cascades such as NF-κB signaling, PI3K/Akt pathway, MAPK pathway, PKC/PKR signaling and TLR/RIG-I signaling cascades. This review presents a research update on the subject and discusses the impact of influenza viral infection on these cell signaling pathways.

Intranasal immunization of ferrets with commercial trivalent influenza vaccines formulated in a nanoemulsion-based adjuvant

NB-1008 is a surfactant-stabilized soybean oil-in-water nanoemulsion (NE) adjuvant with influenza virus antigen incorporated into the NE by simple mixing. Intranasal administration of the antigen with NE adjuvant efficiently produces both mucosal and serum antibody responses as well as a robust cellular Th1 immune response. To demonstrate the adjuvant effect of the W(80)5EC NE, a killed commercial influenza vaccine for intramuscular administration (Fluzone or Fluvirin) was mixed with the W(80)5EC NE adjuvant and administered intranasally to naïve ferrets. After a single intranasal immunization, the adjuvanted influenza vaccine elicited elevated serum hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) geometric mean titers (GMTs) ranging from 196 to 905 for the three hemagglutinin (HA) antigens present in the vaccine, which are approximately 19- to 90-fold higher titers at 1/50 the standard intramuscular commercial nonadjuvanted influenza vaccine dose. Seroconversion rates of 67% to 100% were achieved against each of the three viral strains present. The adjuvanted nasal influenza vaccine also produced significant cross immunity to five other H3N2 influenza virus strains not present in the vaccine and produced sterile immunity after challenge with homologous live virus. No safety issues were observed in 249 ferrets receiving the adjuvanted influenza vaccine. These findings demonstrate the ability of W(80)5EC NE to adjuvant nasally administered influenza vaccine and provide a basis for studying the intranasal W(80)5EC-adjuvanted influenza vaccine in humans.

Influenza surveillance in Shenzhen, the largest migratory metropolitan city of China, 2006–2009

Shenzhen is one of the largest migratory metropolitan cities in China. A standardized influenza surveillance system has been operating in Shenzhen for several years. The objectives of the present study were to describe the epidemiology of influenza in Shenzhen and to assess the impact of pandemic H1N1 on influenza activity. An average rate of 71 cases of influenza-like illness (ILI)/1000 consultations was reported, which was greater than the rate in the preceding 3 years. Laboratory surveillance showed that the annual proportion of specimens positive for influenza was 25·4% in 2009, representing a significant increase over the proportions of 5·4%, 11·6% and 12·2% in 2006, 2007 and 2008, respectively. A total of 414 ILI outbreaks were reported in 2009, which was a marked increase compared to the previous 3 years. Influenza activity reached a record high in Shenzhen in 2009. Seasonal A/H3N2 was the dominant strain during the summer and was gradually replaced by pandemic H1N1. A semi-annual cycle for influenza circulation began to appear due to the emergence of pandemic H1N1.

Molecular characterization and comparative analysis of pandemic H1N1/2009 strains with co-circulating seasonal H1N1/2009 strains from eastern India

During the peak outbreak (July-September 2009), a total 1886 patients were screened in eastern India, of which 139 (7.37%) and 52 (2.76%) were positive for pH1N1 and seasonal H1N1, respectively. Full-length HA1, NA, NS1 and PB1-F2 genes of representative strains were sequenced. Phylogenetic analysis of deduced amino acid sequences of pH1N1 strains revealed HA1 and NS1 to be of North American swine lineage, and the NA gene of Eurasian swine lineage. Consistent with previous reports, the PB1-F2 gene of pH1N1 strains was unique due to a mutation resulting in a truncated protein of 11 aa. The HA, NA and NS1 genes of H1N1/2009 strains clustered with H1N1 strains of 2000-2009, whereas a subset of strains contained a pH1N1-like truncated PB1-F2. The truncated PB1-F2 may confer the advantage of lower pathogenicity but higher replication and infectivity to the human H1N1 strains. This is the first report of seasonal H1N1/2009 strains with a pH1N1/2009-like gene segment.

Influenza epidemiology--past, present, and future

In April 2009, Mexican, American, and Canadian authorities announced that a novel influenza virus with pandemic potential had been identified in large segments of the population. Within weeks, it became apparent that the world was dealing with the first influenza pandemic in >40 yrs. Despite the unpredictable nature of influenza severity and spread in the pandemics of the 20th century, understanding the epidemiology of the past pandemics and current influenza pandemic will help prepare physicians, hospitals, and governments to predict and prepare for the subsequent waves and subsequent pandemics. We present a summary of the biology that predisposes influenza to cause sudden pandemics, as well as a summary of the epidemiology of the 20th century pandemics. We also report on the epidemiology, disease severity, and risk factors for severe disease and intensive care admission from the first wave of the current pandemic (April-August 2009). Last, we provide a mathematical model based on transmission dynamics of the H1N1 influenza virus that may provide some guidance in terms of disease incidence and hospital impact.

A profile of the online dissemination of national influenza surveillance data

Background

Influenza surveillance systems provide important and timely information to health service providers on trends in the circulation of influenza virus and other upper respiratory tract infections. Online dissemination of surveillance data is useful for risk communication to health care professionals, the media and the general public. We reviewed national influenza surveillance websites from around the world to describe the main features of surveillance data dissemination.

Methods

We searched for national influenza surveillance websites for every country and reviewed the resulting sites where available during the period from November 2008 through February 2009. Literature about influenza surveillance was searched at MEDLINE for relevant hyperlinks to related websites. Non-English websites were translated into English using human translators or Google language tools.

Results

A total of 70 national influenza surveillance websites were identified. The percentage of developing countries with surveillance websites was lower than that of developed countries (22% versus 57% respectively). Most of the websites (74%) were in English or provided an English version. The most common surveillance methods included influenza-like illness consultation rates in primary care settings (89%) and laboratory surveillance (44%). Most websites (70%) provided data within a static report format and 66% of the websites provided data with at least weekly resolution.

Conclusion

Appropriate dissemination of surveillance data is important to maximize the utility of collected data. There may be room for improvement in the style and content of the dissemination of influenza data to health care professionals and the general public.

2005 and 2006 seasonal influenza vaccination coverage rates in 10 countries in Africa, Asia Pacific, Europe, Latin America and the Middle East

Recommendations for seasonal influenza vaccination are standard in most developed countries. Many rapidly developing countries have recently begun to adopt recommendations for high-risk target groups, such as the elderly. Population-based surveys to determine use, rather than purchases, of seasonal influenza vaccine are rare outside North America and Western Europe. Such surveys can provide important information on the progress of national immunization programs and on the awareness of influenza among the general public. We report the results of a survey conducted in 10 countries in Africa, Asia Pacific, Eastern Europe, Latin America and the Middle East that aimed to determine influenza vaccination coverage among adults, the elderly, and children and to find out how influenza is perceived in these regions. Seasonal influenza vaccine coverage varied markedly across countries, and no single factor guaranteed high coverage. Our results indicate that strong recommendations appear insufficient, and that fully funded immunization programs together with high awareness in the population are key to encouraging high influenza vaccination coverage.

Review of new and newly discovered respiratory tract viruses in children

Respiratory tract viral infection continues to be among the most common reasons for emergency department visits and hospitalization of children, particularly infants younger than 1 year, in the United States. Throughout the years, clinicians have considered respiratory syncytial virus followed by influenza as the most common pathogens responsible. Over the past decade, new viruses have been discovered through both more specific testing and the finding of new agents causing infection. This includes human metapneumovirus, which leads to similar but often epidemiologically more severe clinical symptoms than respiratory syncytial virus. Other agents responsible for lower respiratory tract infection include Coronavirus (severe acute respiratory syndrome), Bocavirus, and others. This review serves to focus on some of the recent literature on these agents and the clinical impact they have on pediatric lung infection.

The effectiveness of national influenza vaccination policies for at-risk populations over 5 seasons in a Scottish general practice

AIM

To determine the effectiveness of serial influenza vaccination.

SCOPE

Studied in a Scottish GP population, the overall seroresponse rate increased with annual influenza vaccinations and after 5 years it increased from 45.1% to 93.3% for influenza virus A (H1) and from 48.4% to 98.3% for influenza virus A (H3). However, there was little boosting effect with further doses after becoming a seroresponder. The pre-vaccination titres were significantly higher in previous year's seroresponders compared to non-responders.

CONCLUSIONS

The policy of annual vaccination is supported by our data in order to increase the disappointing response rate after one dose. However, the lack of a boosting response with subsequent doses and the significant residual immunity after becoming a seroresponder suggests a prior serological immunity check in order to better direct the vaccine supply (in the years of no antigenic drift), to those who need it most.

On the epidemiology of influenza

The epidemiology of influenza swarms with incongruities, incongruities exhaustively detailed by the late British epidemiologist, Edgar Hope-Simpson. He was the first to propose a parsimonious theory explaining why influenza is, as Gregg said, "seemingly unmindful of traditional infectious disease behavioral patterns." Recent discoveries indicate vitamin D upregulates the endogenous antibiotics of innate immunity and suggest that the incongruities explored by Hope-Simpson may be secondary to the epidemiology of vitamin D deficiency. We identify – and attempt to explain – nine influenza conundrums: (1) Why is influenza both seasonal and ubiquitous and where is the virus between epidemics? (2) Why are the epidemics so explosive? (3) Why do they end so abruptly? (4) What explains the frequent coincidental timing of epidemics in countries of similar latitude? (5) Why is the serial interval obscure? (6) Why is the secondary attack rate so low? (7) Why did epidemics in previous ages spread so rapidly, despite the lack of modern transport? (8) Why does experimental inoculation of seronegative humans fail to cause illness in all the volunteers? (9) Why has influenza mortality of the aged not declined as their vaccination rates increased? We review recent discoveries about vitamin D's effects on innate immunity, human studies attempting sick-to-well transmission, naturalistic reports of human transmission, studies of serial interval, secondary attack rates, and relevant animal studies. We hypothesize that two factors explain the nine conundrums: vitamin D's seasonal and population effects on innate immunity, and the presence of a subpopulation of "good infectors." If true, our revision of Edgar Hope-Simpson's theory has profound implications for the prevention of influenza.

The Influenza Primer Design Resource: a new tool for translating influenza sequence data into effective diagnostics

BACKGROUND

Recent outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza and multiple occurrences of zoonotic infection and deaths in humans have sparked a dramatic increase in influenza research. In order to rapidly identify and help prevent future influenza outbreaks, numerous laboratories around the world are working to develop new nucleotide-based diagnostics for identifying and subtyping influenza viruses. While there are several databases that have been developed for manipulating the vast amount of influenza genetic data that have been produced, significant progress can still be made in developing tools for translating the genetic data into effective diagnostics.

DESCRIPTION

The Influenza Primer Design Resource (IPDR) is the combination of a comprehensive database of influenza nucleotide sequences and a web interface that provides several important tools that aid in the development of oligonucleotides that may be used to develop better diagnostics. IPDR's database can be searched using a variety of criteria, allowing the user to align the subset of influenza sequences that they are interested in. In addition, IPDR reports a consensus sequence for the alignment along with sequence polymorphism information, a summary of most published primers and probes that match the consensus sequence, and a Primer3 analysis of potential primers and probes that could be used for amplifying the sequence subset.

CONCLUSIONS

The IPDR is a unique combination of bioinformatics tools that will greatly aid researchers in translating influenza genetic data into diagnostics, which can effectively identify and subtype influenza strains. The website is freely available at http://www.ipdr.mcw.edu.

Molecular characterization and phylogenetic analysis of H1N1 and H3N2 human influenza A viruses among infants and children in Thailand

The annual influenza outbreaks can cause a high mortality rate among infants and children. In the tropics, influenza shows no clear dependence on seasons. In the present study, we performed molecular and phylogenetic analysis of H1N1 and H3N2 influenza virus isolated from infants and children diagnosed with respiratory tract illness between February 2006 and February 2007. A total of 33 samples (10.92%) were found positive for human influenza virus infection. Characterization of the hemagglutinin gene revealed conserved sequences at the receptor-binding site as well as variations due to amino acid substitutions at the antigenic site, potentially resulting in an N-linked glycosylation site. As for the neuraminidase gene, amino acid substitutions were found in N1 and N2 but not directly at the catalytic or framework sites of this enzyme. Based on the phylogenetic tree, the hemagglutinin 1 (HA1) region and the neuraminidase (NA) gene of both H1N1 and H3N2 isolated subtypes clustered with the current vaccine strain for the Northern Hemisphere 2007-2008. This finding contributes to understanding the evolution of influenza A viruses in humans and is useful for surveillance and vaccine strain selection.

The radiologic manifestations of H5N1 avian influenza

Avian influenza is caused by the H5N1 subtype of the influenza A virus. Human transmission is either directly through close contact with infected birds usually poultry or their secretions. To date 178 people throughout South East Asia have been infected with 85 deaths. Patients usually present with a rapidly progressive pneumonia that can result in respiratory failure and acute respiratory distress syndrome. The chest radiograph therefore remains the most convenient and accessible imaging modality. Studies have shown that most radiographs are abnormal at the time of presentation with multifocal consolidation the commonest radiographic finding. During the course of disease, pleural effusions and cavitation can also develop. Consolidation that involves > or = 4 zones on presentation or at day 7 after the onset of symptoms and subsequent development of acute respiratory distress syndrome are generally associated with an adverse outcome. Chest CT examinations performed during the convalescent period have demonstrated persistent ground glass attenuation and segmental consolidation. Additional features included pseudocavitation, pneumatocoele formation, lymphadenopathy, and centrilobular nodules. Overall the appearances are suggestive of mild fibrosis.

Influenza: the virus and prophylaxis with inactivated influenza vaccine in "at risk" groups, including COPD patients

Influenza is a major respiratory pathogen, which exerts a huge human and economic toll on society. Influenza is a vaccine preventable disease, however, the vaccine strains must be annually updated due to the continuous antigenic changes in the virus. Inactivated influenza vaccines have been used for over 50 years and have an excellent safety record. Annual vaccination is therefore recommended for all individuals with serious medical conditions, like COPD, and protects the vaccinee against influenza illness and also against hospitalization and death. In COPD patients, influenza infection can lead to exacerbations resulting in reduced quality of life, hospitalization and death in the most severe cases. Although there is only limited literature on the use of influenza vaccination solely in COPD patients, there is clearly enough evidence to recommend annual vaccination in this group. This review will focus on influenza virus and prophylaxis with inactivated influenza vaccines in COPD patients and other "at risk" groups to reduce morbidity, save lives, and reduce health care costs.

Estimating the undetected burden of influenza hospitalizations in children

During the 2004-2005 influenza season two independent influenza surveillance systems operated simultaneously in three United States counties. The New Vaccine Surveillance Network (NVSN) prospectively enrolled children hospitalized for respiratory symptoms/fever and tested them using culture and RT-PCR. The Emerging Infections Program (EIP) and a similar clinical-laboratory surveillance system identified hospitalized children who had positive influenza tests obtained as part of their usual medical care. Using data from these systems, we applied capture-recapture analyses to estimate the burden of influenza related-hospitalizations in children aged<5 years. During the 2004-2005 influenza season the influenza-related hospitalization rate estimated by capture-recapture analysis was 8.6/10,000 children aged<5 years. When compared to this estimate, the sensitivity of the prospective surveillance system was 69% and the sensitivity of the clinical-laboratory based system was 39%. In the face of limited resources and an increasing need for influenza surveillance, capture-recapture analysis provides better estimates than either system alone.

Modulation of immunity to respiratory viral infection

Acute respiratory tract infections cause approximately 4 million deaths globally each year. Current strategies to combat these infections include vaccines and antiviral drugs. However, a significant proportion of the pathology and illness induced by respiratory viral infection is attributed to an excessive host immune response, rather than the cytopathic nature of the pathogen. Distinct respiratory viruses elicit common immune mediators and cells, which are subsequently the cause of pathology. Therefore, strategies that seek to attenuate the potency of the host’s immune response may provide generic relief from multiple respiratory infections.

Immune response to influenza vaccination in community-dwelling Chinese elderly persons

We investigated the immune antibody response to influenza vaccine in community-dwelling Chinese elderly persons in Hong Kong. One hundred and twenty-eight subjects were recruited in a single-blind, randomized, and placebo-controlled trial. There was no significant baseline difference between the vaccine and placebo groups regarding the seroprotection rates (PR) (haemagglutination inhibition [HI] titre>or=1:40) and geometric mean titres (GMT) of the HI antibody titers. The PR, GMTs and serological response rates increased significantly in the vaccinated versus placebo groups in A-H1N1 at both weeks 4 and month 6. The GMTs and serological response rates but not the PR for A-H3N2 and influenza B increased significantly in vaccinated versus placebo group at week 4 and month 6 post-vaccination. Multivariate logistic regression analyses of the seroconversion rate for A-H3N2 within the vaccinated group showed that gender, coronary heart disease and the serum albumin level were significant predictors (p=0.018, 0.009 and 0.025, respectively). Influenza vaccination provoked a protective HI antibody response in community-living Chinese elderly persons. The mean number of unplanned hospital admissions per subject over 6 months was significantly lower in the vaccinated than in the placebo groups. Hospitalized elderly persons had poorer nutrition, 4-week post-immunization HI antibody titres and lower mini-mental state examination (MMSE) score than non-hospitalized elderly persons. Logistic regression analyses showed that chronic obstructive airway disease significantly increased the risk of hospitalization while the serum albumin level and 4-week A-H3N2 PR (HI>or=40) were independent predictors of a decreased risk of hospitalizations.

Estimating influenza hospitalizations among children

Two surveillance systems gave a better estimate of influenza hospitalizations in children <5 years of age than either system alone.

Although influenza causes more hospitalizations and deaths among American children than any other vaccine-preventable disease, deriving accurate population-based estimates of disease impact is challenging. Using 2 independent surveillance systems, we performed a capture-recapture analysis to estimate influenza-associated hospitalizations in children in Davidson County, Tennessee, during the 2003–2004 influenza season. The New Vaccine Surveillance Network (NVSN) enrolled children hospitalized with respiratory symptoms or fever and tested them for influenza. The Tennessee Emerging Infections Program (EIP) identified inpatients with positive influenza diagnostic test results through review of laboratory and infection control logs. The hospitalization rate estimated from the capture-recapture analysis in children <5 years of age was 2.4 per 1,000 (95% confidence interval 1.8–3.8). When NVSN estimates were compared with capture-recapture estimates, NVSN found 84% of community-acquired cases, EIP found 64% of cases in which an influenza rapid test was performed, and the overall sensitivity of NVSN and EIP for influenza hospitalizations was 73% and 38%, respectively.

Implementation of the community network of reference laboratories for human influenza in Europe

BACKGROUND

The increased need for accurate influenza laboratory surveillance data in the European Union required formalisation of the existing network of collaborating national influenza reference laboratories participating in the European Influenza Surveillance Scheme (EISS).

OBJECTIVE

To establish a Community Network of Reference Laboratories for Human Influenza in Europe (CNRL).

METHODS

Virologists in EISS defined the objective and tasks of the CNRL. Performance of the laboratories in the tasks was monitored by questionnaire-based inventories and quality control assessments (QCA). Subsequently, actions were defined to improve the performance of the CNRL.

RESULTS

The CNRL started in April 2003 and included as of May 2004 32 laboratories in 24 European countries. The objective is to provide high quality reference services for human influenza surveillance, early warning and pandemic preparedness in Europe. The defined basic tasks are direct detection, culture, typing, subtyping and strain characterisation of influenza virus, diagnostic influenza serology and storage of clinical specimens and virus isolates. The questionnaire-based inventories and QCAs revealed that the majority of CNRL laboratories perform well in most of the basic tasks, although improvements are needed in certain areas of virus testing. Therefore, task groups have been established to further improve the methods used in the network. The CNRL has proven its usefulness during the 2003-2004 season by the reporting of accurate data concerning the flu epidemic caused by A/Fujian/411/2002 (H3N2)-like viruses and by the rapid sharing of information, protocols and reagents during the A(H5N1) and A(H7N3) epizootics in Asia and Canada.

CONCLUSION

EISS has established a functioning Community Network of Reference Laboratories for Human Influenza in Europe and laid the foundation for further enhancement and collaborations. Important next steps include improving the laboratories to carry out all basic tasks and collaboration with the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control.

Epidemiology and seasonality of respiratory tract virus infections in the tropics

Acute viral respiratory tract infections are a significant cause of morbidity worldwide. Information on the epidemiology and seasonality of these infections is important in planning vaccination and treatment strategies. In temperate climes, there are distinct seasonal peaks in the winter months. This paper reviews the seasonal trends of respiratory viral infections in the tropics. Despite the absence of a winter season, consistent seasons of infection, albeit less distinct, have been observed. With few exceptions, respiratory syncytial virus and influenza infections have been observed mainly during the rainy seasons in Asian, African and South American countries.