Estimating Diversification Rates on Incompletely Sampled Phylogenies: Theoretical Concerns and Practical Solutions

A complete and dynamic tree of birds

We present a complete, time-scaled, evolutionary tree of the world's bird species. This tree unites phylogenetic estimates for 9,239 species from 262 studies published between 1990 and 2024, using the Open Tree synthesis algorithm. The remaining species are placed in the tree based on curated taxonomic information. The tips of this complete tree are aligned to the species in the Clements Taxonomy used by eBird and other resources, and cross-mapped to other taxonomic systems including the Open Tree of Life (Open Tree), National Center for Biotechnology Information, and Global Biodiversity Information Facility. The total number of named bird species varies between 10,824 and 11,017 across the taxonomy versions we applied (v2021, v2022, and v2023). We share complete trees for each taxonomy version. The procedure, software, and data stores we used to generate this tree are public and reproducible. The tree presented here is Aves 1.3 and can be easily updated with new phylogenetic information as new estimates are published. We demonstrate the types of large-scale analyses this data resource enables by linking geographic data with the phylogeny to calculate the regional phylogenetic diversity of birds across the world. We will release updated versions of the phylogenetic synthesis and taxonomic translation tables annually. The procedure we describe here can be applied to developing complete phylogenetic estimates for any taxonomic group of interest.

Evolutionary Lability of Sexual Selection and Its Implications for Speciation and Macroevolution

AbstractSexual selection is widely hypothesized to facilitate speciation and phenotypic evolution, but evidence from comparative studies has been mixed. Many previous studies have relied on proxy variables to quantify the intensity of sexual selection, raising the possibility that inconclusive results may reflect, in part, the imperfect measurement of this evolutionary process. Here, we test the relationship between phylogenetic speciation rates and indices of the opportunity for sexual selection drawn from populations of 82 vertebrate taxa. These indices provide a much more direct assessment of sexual selection intensity than proxy traits and allow straightforward comparisons among distantly related clades. We find no correlation between the opportunity for sexual selection and speciation rate, and this result is consistent across many complementary analyses. In addition, widely used proxy variables-sexual dimorphism and dichromatism-are not correlated with the indices employed here. Moreover, we find that the opportunity for sexual selection has low phylogenetic signal and that intraspecific variability in selection indices for many species approaches the range of variation observed across all vertebrates as a whole. Our results potentially reconcile a major paradox in speciation biology at the interface between microevolution and macroevolution: sexual selection can be important for speciation, yet the evolutionary lability of the process over deeper timescales restricts its impact on broad-scale patterns of biodiversity.

Biogeographic Insights Into the Late Miocene Diversification of the Giant Deep-Ocean Amphipod Eurythenes

Mechanisms driving the spatial and temporal patterns of species distribution in the Earth's largest habitat, the deep ocean, remain largely enigmatic. The late Miocene to the Pliocene (~23-2.58 Ma) is a period that was marked by significant geological, climatic, and oceanographic changes. This transitional period spurred widespread species diversification, particularly among widely distributed benthic scavengers, such as amphipods. Here, we take step toward understanding the long-term evolutionary processes of amphipod colonization and diversification in the deep ocean by focusing on the model genus Eurythenes S. I. Smith in Scudder, 1882. These large-bodied scavengers play key roles in benthic communities. We constructed a time-calibrated phylogeny using two mitochondrial DNA genes by analyzing publicly available data on 14 species of Eurythenes across a global depth range from 839 to 8081 m. The resulting phylogenetic tree reveals a diverse clade, with a common ancestor originating around 11.81 Ma. A gradual increase in the effective population size of Eurythenes was observed, particularly during the Pliocene (~4 Ma). The net diversification rate remained almost constant, with slight increases between the Miocene and Pliocene (~8-4 Ma), and most new species appeared during the latter period. Additionally, reconstruction of the ancestral area suggested that the common ancestor of Eurythenes had a global distribution. A combination of dispersal and sympatric processes, along with environmental factors, such as changes in ocean temperature and sea level, contributed to the present biogeographic distribution of these species. Our findings highlight the importance of historical events, such as plate tectonics and changes in deep-water circulation, in driving the rapid speciation of Eurythenes and underscore their essential role in shaping deep-ocean biodiversity.

The Metapopulation Bridge to Macroevolutionary Speciation Rates: A Conceptual Framework and Empirical Test

Whether large-scale variation in lineage diversification rates can be predicted by species properties at the population level is a key unresolved question at the interface between micro- and macroevolution. All else being equal, species with biological attributes that confer metapopulation stability should persist more often at timescales relevant to speciation and so give rise to new (incipient) forms that share these biological traits. Here, we develop a framework for testing the relationship between metapopulation properties related to persistence and phylogenetic speciation rates. We illustrate this conceptual approach by applying it to a long-term dataset on demersal fish communities from the North American continental shelf region. We find that one index of metapopulation persistence has phylogenetic signal, suggesting that traits are connected with range-wide demographic patterns. However, there is no relationship between demographic properties and speciation rate. These findings suggest a decoupling between ecological dynamics at decadal timescales and million-year clade dynamics, raising questions about the extent to which population-level processes observable over ecological timescales can be extrapolated to infer biodiversity dynamics more generally.

DateLife: Leveraging Databases and Analytical Tools to Reveal the Dated Tree of Life

Chronograms-phylogenies with branch lengths proportional to time-represent key data on timing of evolutionary events, allowing us to study natural processes in many areas of biological research. Chronograms also provide valuable information that can be used for education, science communication, and conservation policy decisions. Yet, achieving a high-quality reconstruction of a chronogram is a difficult and resource-consuming task. Here we present DateLife, a phylogenetic software implemented as an R package and an R Shiny web application available at www.datelife.org, that provides services for efficient and easy discovery, summary, reuse, and reanalysis of node age data mined from a curated database of expert, peer-reviewed, and openly available chronograms. The main DateLife workflow starts with one or more scientific taxon names provided by a user. Names are processed and standardized to a unified taxonomy, allowing DateLife to run a name match across its local chronogram database that is curated from Open Tree of Life's phylogenetic repository, and extract all chronograms that contain at least two queried taxon names, along with their metadata. Finally, node ages from matching chronograms are mapped using the congruification algorithm to corresponding nodes on a tree topology, either extracted from Open Tree of Life's synthetic phylogeny or one provided by the user. Congruified node ages are used as secondary calibrations to date the chosen topology, with or without initial branch lengths, using different phylogenetic dating methods such as BLADJ, treePL, PATHd8, and MrBayes. We performed a cross-validation test to compare node ages resulting from a DateLife analysis (i.e, phylogenetic dating using secondary calibrations) to those from the original chronograms (i.e, obtained with primary calibrations), and found that DateLife's node age estimates are consistent with the age estimates from the original chronograms, with the largest variation in ages occurring around topologically deeper nodes. Because the results from any software for scientific analysis can only be as good as the data used as input, we highlight the importance of considering the results of a DateLife analysis in the context of the input chronograms. DateLife can help to increase awareness of the existing disparities among alternative hypotheses of dates for the same diversification events, and to support exploration of the effect of alternative chronogram hypotheses on downstream analyses, providing a framework for a more informed interpretation of evolutionary results.

Low human interest for the most at-risk reef fishes worldwide

Human interest in biodiversity is essential for effective conservation action but remains poorly quantified at large scales. Here, we investigated human interest for 2408 marine reef fishes using data obtained from online public databases and social media, summarized in two synthetic dimensions, research effort and public attention. Both dimensions are mainly related to geographic range size. Research effort is also linked to fishery importance, while public attention is more related to fish aesthetic value and aquarium trade importance. We also found a strong phylogenetic bias, with certain fish families receiving disproportional research effort and public attention. Most concerningly, species at the highest risk of extinction and those most vulnerable to future climate change tend to receive less research effort and public attention. Our results provide a lens through which examining the societal attention that species garner, with the ultimate goals to improve conservation strategies, research programs, and communication plans.

Phylogenomics recovers multiple origins of portable case making in caddisflies (Insecta: Trichoptera), nature's underwater architects

Caddisflies (Trichoptera) are among the most diverse groups of freshwater animals with more than 16 000 described species. They play a fundamental role in freshwater ecology and environmental engineering in streams, rivers and lakes. Because of this, they are frequently used as indicator organisms in biomonitoring programmes. Despite their importance, key questions concerning the evolutionary history of caddisflies, such as the timing and origin of larval case making, remain unanswered owing to the lack of a well-resolved phylogeny. Here, we estimated a phylogenetic tree using a combination of transcriptomes and targeted enrichment data for 207 species, representing 48 of 52 extant families and 174 genera. We calibrated and dated the tree with 33 carefully selected fossils. The first caddisflies originated approximately 295 million years ago in the Permian, and major suborders began to diversify in the Triassic. Furthermore, we show that portable case making evolved in three separate lineages, and shifts in diversification occurred in concert with key evolutionary innovations beyond case making.

Macroevolutionary Dynamics in Micro-organisms: Generalists Give Rise to Specialists Across Biomes in the Ubiquitous Bacterial Phylum Myxococcota

Prokaryotes dominate the Tree of Life, but our understanding of the macroevolutionary processes generating this diversity is still limited. Habitat transitions are thought to be a key driver of prokaryote diversity. However, relatively little is known about how prokaryotes successfully transition and persist across environments, and how these processes might vary between biomes and lineages. Here, we investigate biome transitions and specialization in natural populations of a focal bacterial phylum, the Myxococcota, sampled across a range of replicated soils and freshwater and marine sediments in Cornwall (UK). By targeted deep sequencing of the protein-coding gene rpoB, we found >2,000 unique Myxococcota lineages, with the majority (77%) classified as biome specialists and with only <5% of lineages distributed across the salt barrier. Discrete character evolution models revealed that specialists in one biome rarely transitioned into specialists in another biome. Instead, evolved generalism mediated transitions between biome specialists. State-dependent diversification models found variation in speciation rates across the tree, but this variation was independent of biome association or specialization. Our findings were robust to phylogenetic uncertainty, different levels of species delineation, and different assumed amounts of unsampled diversity resulting in an incomplete phylogeny. Overall, our results are consistent with a "jack-of-all-trades" tradeoff where generalists suffer a cost in any individual environment, resulting in rapid evolution of niche specialists and shed light on how bacteria could transition between biomes.

The macroevolutionary singularity of snakes

Snakes and lizards (Squamata) represent a third of terrestrial vertebrates and exhibit spectacular innovations in locomotion, feeding, and sensory processing. However, the evolutionary drivers of this radiation remain poorly known. We infer potential causes and ultimate consequences of squamate macroevolution by combining individual-based natural history observations (>60,000 animals) with a comprehensive time-calibrated phylogeny that we anchored with genomic data (5400 loci) from 1018 species. Due to shifts in the dynamics of speciation and phenotypic evolution, snakes have transformed the trophic structure of animal communities through the recurrent origin and diversification of specialized predatory strategies. Squamate biodiversity reflects a legacy of singular events that occurred during the early history of snakes and reveals the impact of historical contingency on vertebrate biodiversity.

Diversification dynamics of a common deep-sea octocoral family linked to the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum

The deep-sea has experienced dramatic changes in physical and chemical variables in the geological past. However, little is known about how deep-sea species richness responded to such changes over time and space. Here, we studied the diversification dynamics of one of the most diverse octocorallian families inhabiting deep sea benthonic environments worldwide and sustaining highly diverse ecosystems, Primnoidae. A newly dated species-level phylogeny was constructed to infer their ancestral geographic locations and dispersal rates initially. Then, we tested whether their global and regional (the Southern Ocean) diversification dynamics were mediated by dispersal rate and abiotic factors as changes in ocean geochemistry. Finally, we tested whether primnoids showed changes in speciation and extinction at discrete time points. Our results suggested primnoids likely originated in the southwestern Pacific Ocean during the Lower Cretaceous ∼112 Ma, with further dispersal after the physical separation of continental landmasses along the late Mesozoic and Cenozoic. Only the speciation rate of the Southern Ocean primnoids showed a significant correlation to ocean chemistry. Moreover, the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum marked a significant increase in the diversification of primnoids at global and regional scales. Our results provide new perspectives on the macroevolutionary and biogeographic patterns of an ecologically important benthic organism typically found in deep-sea environments.

The evolution of ectomycorrhizal symbiosis in the Late Cretaceous is a key driver of explosive diversification in Agaricomycetes

Ectomycorrhizal (EcM) symbiosis, a ubiquitous plant-fungus interaction in forests, evolved in parallel in fungi. Why the evolution of EcM fungi did not necessarily increase ecological opportunities for explosive diversification remains unclear. This study aimed to reveal the driving mechanism of the evolutionary diversification in the fungal class Agaricomycetes, specifically by testing whether the evolution of EcM symbiosis in the Late Cretaceous increased ecological opportunities. The historical character transitions of trophic state and fruitbody form were estimated based on phylogenies inferred from fragments of 89 single-copy genes. Moreover, five analyses were used to estimate the net diversification rates (speciation rate minus extinction rate). The results indicate that the unidirectional evolution of EcM symbiosis occurred 27 times, ranging in date from the Early Triassic to the Early Paleogene. The increased diversification rates appeared to occur intensively at the stem of EcM fungal clades diverging in the Late Cretaceous, coinciding with the rapid diversification of EcM angiosperms. By contrast, the evolution of fruitbody form was not strongly linked with the increased diversification rates. These findings suggest that the evolution of EcM symbiosis in the Late Cretaceous, supposedly with coevolving EcM angiosperms, was the key drive of the explosive diversification in Agaricomycetes.

Completing a molecular timetree of apes and monkeys

The primate infraorder Simiiformes, comprising Old and New World monkeys and apes, includes the most well-studied species on earth. Their most comprehensive molecular timetree, assembled from thousands of published studies, is found in the TimeTree database and contains 268 simiiform species. It is, however, missing 38 out of 306 named species in the NCBI taxonomy for which at least one molecular sequence exists in the NCBI GenBank. We developed a three-pronged approach to expanding the timetree of Simiiformes to contain 306 species. First, molecular divergence times were searched and found for 21 missing species in timetrees published across 15 studies. Second, untimed molecular phylogenies were searched and scaled to time using relaxed clocks to add four more species. Third, we reconstructed ten new timetrees from genetic data in GenBank, allowing us to incorporate 13 more species. Finally, we assembled the most comprehensive molecular timetree of Simiiformes containing all 306 species for which any molecular data exists. We compared the species divergence times with those previously imputed using statistical approaches in the absence of molecular data. The latter data-less imputed times were not significantly correlated with those derived from the molecular data. Also, using phylogenies containing imputed times produced different trends of evolutionary distinctiveness and speciation rates over time than those produced using the molecular timetree. These results demonstrate that more complete clade-specific timetrees can be produced by analyzing existing information, which we hope will encourage future efforts to fill in the missing taxa in the global timetree of life.

Global hotspots of plant phylogenetic diversity

Regions harbouring high unique phylogenetic diversity (PD) are priority targets for conservation. Here, we analyse the global distribution of plant PD, which remains poorly understood despite plants being the foundation of most terrestrial habitats and key to human livelihoods. Capitalising on a recently completed, comprehensive global checklist of vascular plants, we identify hotspots of unique plant PD and test three hypotheses: (1) PD is more evenly distributed than species diversity; (2) areas of highest PD (often called 'hotspots') do not maximise cumulative PD; and (3) many biomes are needed to maximise cumulative PD. Our results support all three hypotheses: more than twice as many regions are required to cover 50% of global plant PD compared to 50% of species; regions that maximise cumulative PD substantially differ from the regions with outstanding individual PD; and while (sub-)tropical moist forest regions dominate across PD hotspots, other forest types and open biomes are also essential. Safeguarding PD in the Anthropocene (including the protection of some comparatively species-poor areas) is a global, increasingly recognised responsibility. Having highlighted countries with outstanding unique plant PD, further analyses are now required to fully understand the global distribution of plant PD and associated conservation imperatives across spatial scales.

Global distribution and evolutionary transitions of floral symmetry in angiosperms

Floral symmetry plays an important role in plant-pollinator interactions and may have remarkable impacts on angiosperm diversification. However, spatiotemporal patterns in floral symmetry and drivers of these patterns remain unknown. Here, using newly compiled floral symmetry (actinomorphy versus zygomorphy) data of 279,877 angiosperm species and their distributions and phylogenies, we estimated global geographic patterns and macroevolutionary dynamics of floral symmetry. We found that frequency of actinomorphic species increased with latitude, while that of zygomorphic species decreased. Solar radiation, present-day temperature, and Quaternary temperature change correlated with geographic variation in floral symmetry frequency. Evolutionary transitions from actinomorphy to zygomorphy dominated floral symmetry evolution, although the transition rate decreased with decreasing paleotemperature throughout the Cenozoic. Notably, we found that zygomorphy may not favor diversification of angiosperms as previously observed in some clades. Our study demonstrates the influence of (paleo)climate on spatiotemporal patterns in floral symmetry and challenges previous views about role of flower symmetry in angiosperm diversification.

Phylogenomics reveals the history of host use in mosquitoes

Mosquitoes have profoundly affected human history and continue to threaten human health through the transmission of a diverse array of pathogens. The phylogeny of mosquitoes has remained poorly characterized due to difficulty in taxonomic sampling and limited availability of genomic data beyond the most important vector species. Here, we used phylogenomic analysis of 709 single copy ortholog groups from 256 mosquito species to produce a strongly supported phylogeny that resolves the position of the major disease vector species and the major mosquito lineages. Our analyses support an origin of mosquitoes in the early Triassic (217 MYA [highest posterior density region: 188-250 MYA]), considerably older than previous estimates. Moreover, we utilize an extensive database of host associations for mosquitoes to show that mosquitoes have shifted to feeding upon the blood of mammals numerous times, and that mosquito diversification and host-use patterns within major lineages appear to coincide in earth history both with major continental drift events and with the diversification of vertebrate classes.

Impacts of Taxon-Sampling Schemes on Bayesian Tip Dating Under the Fossilized Birth-Death Process

Evolutionary timescales can be inferred by molecular-clock analyses of genetic data and fossil evidence. Bayesian phylogenetic methods such as tip dating provide a powerful framework for inferring evolutionary timescales, but the most widely used priors for tree topologies and node times often assume that present-day taxa have been sampled randomly or exhaustively. In practice, taxon sampling is often carried out so as to include representatives of major lineages, such as orders or families. We examined the impacts of different densities of diversified sampling on Bayesian tip dating on unresolved fossilized birth-death (FBD) trees, in which fossil taxa are topologically constrained but their exact placements are averaged out. We used synthetic data generated by simulations of nucleotide sequence evolution, fossil occurrences, and diversified taxon sampling. Our analyses under the diversified-sampling FBD process show that increasing taxon-sampling density does not necessarily improve divergence-time estimates. However, when informative priors were specified for the root age or when tree topologies were fixed to those used for simulation, the performance of tip dating on unresolved FBD trees maintains its accuracy and precision or improves with taxon-sampling density. By exploring three situations in which models are mismatched, we find that including all relevant fossils, without pruning off those that are incompatible with the diversified-sampling FBD process, can lead to underestimation of divergence times. Our reanalysis of a eutherian mammal data set confirms some of the findings from our simulation study, and reveals the complexity of diversified taxon sampling in phylogenomic data sets. In highlighting the interplay of taxon-sampling density and other factors, the results of our study have practical implications for using Bayesian tip dating to infer evolutionary timescales across the Tree of Life. [Bayesian tip dating; eutherian mammals; fossilized birth-death process; phylogenomics; taxon sampling.].

Phylogenetic diversity and the structure of host-epiphyte interactions across the Neotropics

Understanding the mechanisms driving community assembly has been a major focus of ecological research for nearly a century, yet little is known about these mechanisms in commensal communities, particularly with respect to their historical/evolutionary components. Here, we use a large-scale dataset of 4,440 vascular plant species to explore the relationship between the evolutionary distinctiveness (ED) (as measured by the 'species evolutionary history' (SEH)) of host species and the phylogenetic diversity (PD) of their associated epiphyte species. Although there was considerable variation across hosts and their associated epiphyte species, they were largely unrelated to host SEH. Our results mostly support the idea that the determinants of epiphyte colonization success might involve host characteristics that are unrelated to host SEH (e.g., architectural differences between hosts). While determinants of PD of epiphyte assemblages are poorly known, they do not appear to be related to the evolutionary history of host species. Instead, they might be better explained by neutral processes of colonization and extinction. However, the high level of phylogenetic signal in epiphyte PD (independent of SEH) suggests it might still be influenced by yet unrecognized evolutionary determinants. This study highlights how little is still known about the phylogenetic determinants of epiphyte communities.

Trait-dependent diversification in angiosperms: Patterns, models and data

Variation in species richness across the tree of life, accompanied by the incredible variety of ecological and morphological characteristics found in nature, has inspired many studies to link traits with species diversification. Angiosperms are a highly diverse group that has fundamentally shaped life on earth since the Cretaceous, and illustrate how species diversification affects ecosystem functioning. Numerous traits and processes have been linked to differences in species richness within this group, but we know little about their relative importance and how they interact. Here, we synthesised data from 152 studies that used state-dependent speciation and extinction (SSE) models on angiosperm clades. Intrinsic traits related to reproduction and morphology were often linked to diversification but a set of universal drivers did not emerge as traits did not have consistent effects across clades. Importantly, SSE model results were correlated to data set properties - trees that were larger, older or less well-sampled tended to yield trait-dependent outcomes. We compared these properties to recommendations for SSE model use and provide a set of best practices to follow when designing studies and reporting results. Finally, we argue that SSE model inferences should be considered in a larger context incorporating species' ecology, demography and genetics.

Diverse mangroves deviate from other angiosperms in their genome size, leaf cell size and cell packing density relationships

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

While genome size limits the minimum sizes and maximum numbers of cells that can be packed into a given leaf volume, mature cell sizes can be substantially larger than their meristematic precursors and vary in response to abiotic conditions. Mangroves are iconic examples of how abiotic conditions can influence the evolution of plant phenotypes.

METHODS

Here, we examined the coordination between genome size, leaf cell sizes, cell packing densities and leaf size in 13 mangrove species across four sites in China. Four of these species occurred at more than one site, allowing us to test the effect of climate on leaf anatomy.

RESULTS

We found that genome sizes of mangroves were very small compared to other angiosperms, but, like other angiosperms, mangrove cells were always larger than the minimum size defined by genome size. Increasing mean annual temperature of a growth site led to higher packing densities of veins (Dv) and stomata (Ds) and smaller epidermal cells but had no effect on stomatal size. In contrast to other angiosperms, mangroves exhibited (1) a negative relationship between guard cell size and genome size; (2) epidermal cells that were smaller than stomata; and (3) coordination between Dv and Ds that was not mediated by epidermal cell size. Furthermore, mangrove epidermal cell sizes and packing densities covaried with leaf size.

CONCLUSIONS

While mangroves exhibited coordination between veins and stomata and attained a maximum theoretical stomatal conductance similar to that of other angiosperms, the tissue-level tradeoffs underlying these similar relationships across species and environments were markedly different, perhaps indicative of the unique structural and physiological adaptations of mangroves to their stressful environments.

Key innovations and the diversification of Hymenoptera

The order Hymenoptera (wasps, ants, sawflies, and bees) represents one of the most diverse animal lineages, but whether specific key innovations have contributed to its diversification is still unknown. We assembled the largest time-calibrated phylogeny of Hymenoptera to date and investigated the origin and possible correlation of particular morphological and behavioral innovations with diversification in the order: the wasp waist of Apocrita; the stinger of Aculeata; parasitoidism, a specialized form of carnivory; and secondary phytophagy, a reversal to plant-feeding. Here, we show that parasitoidism has been the dominant strategy since the Late Triassic in Hymenoptera, but was not an immediate driver of diversification. Instead, transitions to secondary phytophagy (from parasitoidism) had a major influence on diversification rate in Hymenoptera. Support for the stinger and the wasp waist as key innovations remains equivocal, but these traits may have laid the anatomical and behavioral foundations for adaptations more directly associated with diversification.

Bird lineages colonizing urban habitats have diversified at high rates across deep time

Aim

Urbanization exposes species to novel ecological conditions. Some species thrive in urban areas, whereas many others are excluded from these human-made environments. Previous analyses suggest that the ability to cope with rapid environmental change is associated with long-term patterns of diversification, but whether the suite of traits associated with the ability to colonize urban environments is linked to this process remains poorly understood.

Location

World.

Time period

Current.

Major taxa studied

Passerine birds.

Methods

We applied macroevolutionary models to a large dataset of passerine birds to compare the evolutionary history of urban-tolerant species with that of urban-avoidant species. Specifically, we examined models of state-dependent speciation and extinction to assess the macroevolution of urban tolerance as a binary trait, in addition to models of quantitative trait-dependent diversification based on relative urban abundance. We also ran simulation-based model assessments to explore potential sources of bias.

Results

We provide evidence that historically, species with traits promoting urban colonization have undergone faster diversification than urban-avoidant species, indicating that urbanization favours clades with a historical tendency towards rapid speciation or reduced extinction. In addition, we find that past transitions towards states that currently impede urban colonization by passerines have been more frequent than in the opposite direction. Furthermore, we find a portion of urban-avoidant passerines to be recent and to undergo fast diversification. All highly supported models give this result consistently.

Main conclusions

Urbanization is mainly associated with the loss of lineages that are inherently more vulnerable to extinction over deep time, whereas cities tend to be colonized by less vulnerable lineages, for which urbanization might be neutral or positive in terms of longer-term diversification. Urban avoidance is associated with high rates of recent diversification for some clades occurring in regions with relatively intact natural ecosystems and low current levels of urbanization.

Global variation in diversification rate and species richness are unlinked in plants

Species richness varies immensely around the world. Variation in the rate of diversification (speciation minus extinction) is often hypothesized to explain this pattern, while alternative explanations invoke time or ecological carrying capacities as drivers. Focusing on seed plants, the world's most important engineers of terrestrial ecosystems, we investigated the role of diversification rate as a link between the environment and global species richness patterns. Applying structural equation modeling to a comprehensive distribution dataset and phylogenetic tree covering all circa 332,000 seed plant species and 99.9% of the world's terrestrial surface (excluding Antarctica), we test five broad hypotheses postulating that diversification serves as a mechanistic link between species richness and climate, climatic stability, seasonality, environmental heterogeneity, or the distribution of biomes. Our results show that the global patterns of species richness and diversification rate are entirely independent. Diversification rates were not highest in warm and wet climates, running counter to the Metabolic Theory of Ecology, one of the dominant explanations for global gradients in species richness. Instead, diversification rates were highest in edaphically diverse, dry areas that have experienced climate change during the Neogene. Meanwhile, we confirmed climate and environmental heterogeneity as the main drivers of species richness, but these effects did not involve diversification rates as a mechanistic link, calling for alternative explanations. We conclude that high species richness is likely driven by the antiquity of wet tropical areas (supporting the "tropical conservatism hypothesis") or the high ecological carrying capacity of warm, wet, and/or environmentally heterogeneous environments.

A flexible method for estimating tip diversification rates across a range of speciation and extinction scenarios

Estimates of diversification rates at the tips of a phylogeny provide a flexible approach for correlation analyses with multiple traits and to map diversification rates in space while also avoiding the uncertainty of deep time rate reconstructions. Available methods for tip rate estimation make different assumptions, and thus their accuracy usually depends on the characteristics of the underlying model generating the tree. Here, we introduce MiSSE, a trait-free, state-dependent speciation and extinction approach that can be used to estimate varying speciation, extinction, net diversification, turnover, and extinction fractions at the tips of the tree. We compare the accuracy of tip rates inferred by MiSSE against similar methods and demonstrate that, due to certain characteristics of the model, the error is generally low across a broad range of speciation and extinction scenarios. MiSSE can be used alongside regular phylogenetic comparative methods in trait-related diversification hypotheses, and we also describe a simple correction to avoid pseudoreplication from sister tips in analyses of independent contrasts. Finally, we demonstrate the capabilities of MiSSE, with a renewed focus on classic comparative methods, to examine the correlation between plant height and turnover rates in eucalypts, a species-rich lineage of flowering plants.

Geographic range size and speciation in honeyeaters

BACKGROUND

Darwin and others proposed that a species' geographic range size positively influences speciation likelihood, with the relationship potentially dependent on the mode of speciation and other contributing factors, including geographic setting and species traits. Several alternative proposals for the influence of range size on speciation rate have also been made (e.g. negative or a unimodal relationship with speciation). To examine Darwin's proposal, we use a range of phylogenetic comparative methods, focusing on a large Australasian bird clade, the honeyeaters (Aves: Meliphagidae).

RESULTS

We consider the influence of range size, shape, and position (latitudinal and longitudinal midpoints, island or continental species), and consider two traits known to influence range size: dispersal ability and body size. Applying several analytical approaches, including phylogenetic Bayesian path analysis, spatiophylogenetic models, and state-dependent speciation and extinction models, we find support for both the positive relationship between range size and speciation rate and the influence of mode of speciation.

CONCLUSIONS

Honeyeater speciation rate differs considerably between islands and the continental setting across the clade's distribution, with range size contributing positively in the continental setting, while dispersal ability influences speciation regardless of setting. These outcomes support Darwin's original proposal for a positive relationship between range size and speciation likelihood, while extending the evidence for the contribution of dispersal ability to speciation.

The aesthetic value of reef fishes is globally mismatched to their conservation priorities

Reef fishes are closely connected to many human populations, yet their contributions to society are mostly considered through their economic and ecological values. Cultural and intrinsic values of reef fishes to the public can be critical drivers of conservation investment and success, but remain challenging to quantify. Aesthetic value represents one of the most immediate and direct means by which human societies engage with biodiversity, and can be evaluated from species to ecosystems. Here, we provide the aesthetic value of 2,417 ray-finned reef fish species by combining intensive evaluation of photographs of fishes by humans with predicted values from machine learning. We identified important biases in species’ aesthetic value relating to evolutionary history, ecological traits, and International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) threat status. The most beautiful fishes are tightly packed into small parts of both the phylogenetic tree and the ecological trait space. In contrast, the less attractive fishes are the most ecologically and evolutionary distinct species and those recognized as threatened. Our study highlights likely important mismatches between potential public support for conservation and the species most in need of this support. It also provides a pathway for scaling-up our understanding of what are both an important nonmaterial facet of biodiversity and a key component of nature’s contribution to people, which could help better anticipate consequences of species loss and assist in developing appropriate communication strategies.

The most beautiful reef fish are tightly packed into small regions of both the phylogenetic tree and the ecological trait space of the world’s reef fish fauna and are less threatened than unattractive fish. This study highlights likely important mismatches between potential public support for conservation and the species most in need of this support.

Dispersal ability and its consequences for population genetic differentiation and diversification

Dispersal ability is known to influence geographical structuring of genetic variation within species, with a direct relationship between low vagility and population genetic structure, which can potentially give rise to allopatric speciation. However, our general understanding of the relationship between dispersal ability, population differentiation and lineage diversification is limited. To address this issue, we sampled mitochondrial DNA variation within lineages of beetles and spiders across the Canary Islands to explore the relationships between dispersal ability, differentiation within lineages and diversification. We found positive relationships between population genetic structure and diversification for both beetles and spiders. Comparisons between dispersive and non-dispersive lineages revealed significant differences for both lineage differentiation and diversification. For both taxa, non-dispersive lineages had stronger population genetic structure. Genus-level endemic species richness and proxies for diversification rate within genera were higher in non-dispersive taxa for both beetles and spiders. Comparisons of average and maximum node divergences within genera suggest that species turnover may be higher in non-dispersive genera. Our results reveal a model where dispersal limitation may shape the diversity of lineages across evolutionary timescales by positively influencing intraspecific and species diversity, moderated by higher extinction rates compared to more dispersive lineages.

Diversification Rate is Associated with Rate of Molecular Evolution in Ray-Finned Fish (Actinopterygii)

Understanding the factors that drive diversification of taxa across the tree of life is a key focus of macroevolutionary research. While the effects of life history, ecology, climate and geography on diversity have been studied for many taxa, the relationship between molecular evolution and diversification has received less attention. However, correlations between rates of molecular evolution and diversification rate have been detected in a range of taxa, including reptiles, plants and birds. A correlation between rates of molecular evolution and diversification rate is a prediction of several evolutionary theories, including the evolutionary speed hypothesis which links variation in mutation rates to differences in speciation rates. If it is widespread, such correlations could also have significant practical impacts, if they are not adequately accounted for in phylogenetic inference of evolutionary rates and timescales. Ray-finned fish (Actinopterygii) offer a prime target to test for this relationship due to their extreme variation in clade size suggesting a wide range of diversification rates. We employ both a sister-pairs approach and a whole-tree approach to test for correlations between substitution rate and net diversification. We also collect life history and ecological trait data and account for potential confounding factors including body size, latitude, max depth and reef association. We find evidence to support a relationship between diversification and synonymous rates of nuclear evolution across two published backbone phylogenies, as well as weak evidence for a relationship between mitochondrial nonsynonymous rates and diversification at the genus level.

Climatic refugia and reduced extinction correlate with underdispersion in mammals and birds in Africa

Macroevolutionary patterns, often inferred from metrics of community relatedness, are often used to ascertain major evolutionary processes shaping communities. These patterns have been shown to be informative of biogeographic barriers, of habitat suitability and invasibility (especially with regard to environmental filtering), and of regions that function as evolutionary cradles (i.e., sources of diversification) or museums (i.e., regions of reduced extinction). Here, we analyzed continental datasets of mammal and bird distributions to identify primary drivers of community evolution on the African continent for mostly endothermic vertebrates. We find that underdispersion (i.e., relatively low phylogenetic diversity compared to species richness) closely correlates with specific ecoregions that have been identified as climatic refugia in the literature, regardless of whether these specific regions have been touted as cradles or museums. Using theoretical models of identical communities that differ only with respect to extinction rates, we find that even small suppressions of extinction rates can result in underdispersed communities, supporting the hypothesis that climatic stability can lead to underdispersion. We posit that large-scale patterns of under- and overdispersion between regions of similar species richness are more reflective of a particular region's extinction potential, and that the very nature of refugia can lead to underdispersion via the steady accumulation of species richness through diversification within the same ecoregion during climatic cycles. Thus, patterns of environmental filtering can be obfuscated by environments that coincide with biogeographic refugia, and considerations of regional biogeographic history are paramount for inferring macroevolutionary processes.

The causes and ecological context of rapid morphological evolution in birds

Episodic pulses in morphological diversification are a prominent feature of evolutionary history, driven by factors that remain widely disputed. Resolving this question has proved challenging because comprehensive species-level data are generally unavailable at sufficient scale. Combining global phylogenetic and morphological data for birds, we show that pulses of diversification in lineages and traits tend to occur independently and in different contexts. Speciation pulses are preceded by greater differentiation in overall morphology and habitat niche, then followed by increased rates of beak evolution. Contrary to standard hypotheses, pulses of morphological diversification tend to be associated with habitat niche stability rather than adaptation to different diets and habitat types. These patterns suggest that the timing of diversification varies across traits according to their ecological function, and that pulses of morphological evolution may occur when successful lineages subdivide niche space within particular habitat types. Our results highlight the growing potential of functional trait data sets to refine macroevolutionary models.

No link between population isolation and speciation rate in squamate reptiles

Rates of species formation vary widely across the tree of life and contribute to massive disparities in species richness among clades. This variation can emerge from differences in metapopulation-level processes that affect the rates at which lineages diverge, persist, and evolve reproductive barriers and ecological differentiation. For example, populations that evolve reproductive barriers quickly should form new species at faster rates than populations that acquire reproductive barriers more slowly. This expectation implicitly links microevolutionary processes (the evolution of populations) and macroevolutionary patterns (the profound disparity in speciation rate across taxa). Here, leveraging extensive field sampling from the Neotropical Cerrado biome in a biogeographically controlled natural experiment, we test the role of an important microevolutionary process-the propensity for population isolation-as a control on speciation rate in lizards and snakes. By quantifying population genomic structure across a set of codistributed taxa with extensive and phylogenetically independent variation in speciation rate, we show that broad-scale patterns of species formation are decoupled from demographic and genetic processes that promote the formation of population isolates. Population isolation is likely a critical stage of speciation for many taxa, but our results suggest that interspecific variability in the propensity for isolation has little influence on speciation rates. These results suggest that other stages of speciation-including the rate at which reproductive barriers evolve and the extent to which newly formed populations persist-are likely to play a larger role than population isolation in controlling speciation rate variation in squamates.

Influence of historical changes in tropical reef habitat on the diversification of coral reef fishes

Past environmental changes are expected to have profoundly impacted diversity dynamics through time. While some previous studies showed an association between past climate changes or tectonic events and important shifts in lineage diversification, it is only recently that past environmental changes have been explicitly integrated in diversification models to test their influence on diversification rates. Here, we used a global reconstruction of tropical reef habitat dynamics during the Cenozoic and phylogenetic diversification models to test the influence of (i) major geological events, (ii) reef habitat fragmentation and (iii) reef area on the diversification of 9 major clades of tropical reef fish (Acanthuridae, Balistoidea, Carangoidea, Chaetodontidae, Haemulinae, Holocentridae, Labridae, Pomacentridae and Sparidae). The diversification models revealed a weak association between paleo-habitat changes and diversification dynamics. Specifically, the fragmentation of tropical reef habitats over the Cenozoic was found to be a driver of tropical reef fish diversification for 2 clades. However, overall, our approach did not allow the identification of striking associations between diversification dynamics and paleo-habitat fragmentation in contrast with theoretical model's predictions.

Empirical and Methodological Challenges to the Model-Based Inference of Diversification Rates in Extinct Clades

Changes in speciation and extinction rates are key to the dynamics of clade diversification, but attempts to infer them from phylogenies of extant species face challenges. Methods capable of synthesizing information from extant and fossil species have yielded novel insights into diversification rate variation through time, but little is known about their behavior when analyzing entirely extinct clades. Here, we use empirical and simulated data to assess how two popular methods, PyRate and Fossil BAMM, perform in this setting. We inferred the first tip-dated trees for ornithischian dinosaurs, and combined them with fossil occurrence data to test whether the clade underwent an end-Cretaceous decline. We then simulated phylogenies and fossil records under empirical constraints to determine whether macroevolutionary and preservation rates can be teased apart under paleobiologically realistic conditions. We obtained discordant inferences about ornithischian macroevolution including a long-term speciation rate decline (BAMM), mostly flat rates with a steep diversification drop (PyRate) or without one (BAMM), and episodes of implausibly accelerated speciation and extinction (PyRate). Simulations revealed little to no conflation between speciation and preservation, but yielded spuriously correlated speciation and extinction estimates while time-smearing tree-wide shifts (BAMM) or overestimating their number (PyRate). Our results indicate that the small phylogenetic datasets available to vertebrate paleontologists and the assumptions made by current model-based methods combine to yield potentially unreliable inferences about the diversification of extinct clades. We provide guidelines for interpreting the results of the existing approaches in light of their limitations, and suggest how the latter may be mitigated.

Accelerated Diversification Explains the Exceptional Species Richness of Tropical Characoid Fishes

The Neotropics harbor the most species-rich freshwater fish fauna on the planet, but the timing of that exceptional diversification remains unclear. Did the Neotropics accumulate species steadily throughout their long history, or attain their remarkable diversity recently? Biologists have long debated the relative support for these museum and cradle hypotheses, but few phylogenies of megadiverse tropical clades have included sufficient taxa to distinguish between them. We used 1,288 ultraconserved element loci (UCE) spanning 293 species, 211 genera and 21 families of characoid fishes to reconstruct a new, fossil-calibrated phylogeny and infer the most likely diversification scenario for a clade that includes a third of Neotropical fish diversity. This phylogeny implies paraphyly of the traditional delimitation of Characiformes because it resolves the largely Neotropical Characoidei as the sister lineage of Siluriformes (catfishes), rather than the African Citharinodei. Time-calibrated phylogenies indicate an ancient origin of major characoid lineages and reveal a much more recent emergence of most characoid species. Diversification rate analyses infer increased speciation and decreased extinction rates during the Oligocene at around 30 million years ago (Ma) during a period of mega-wetland formation in the proto-Orinoco-Amazonas. Three species-rich and ecomorphologically diverse lineages (Anostomidae, Serrasalmidae, and Characidae) that originated more than 60 Ma in the Paleocene experienced particularly notable bursts of Oligocene diversification and now account collectively for 68% of the approximately 2,150 species of Characoidei. In addition to paleogeographic changes, we discuss potential accelerants of diversification in these three lineages. While the Neotropics accumulated a museum of ecomorphologically diverse characoid lineages long ago, this geologically dynamic region also cradled a much more recent birth of remarkable species-level diversity.

Biodiversity at the global scale: the synthesis continues

Traditionally, the generation and use of biodiversity data and their associated specimen objects have been primarily the purview of individuals and small research groups. While deposition of data and specimens in herbaria and other repositories has long been the norm, throughout most of their history, these resources have been accessible only to a small community of specialists. Through recent concerted efforts, primarily at the level of national and international governmental agencies over the last two decades, the pace of biodiversity data accumulation has accelerated, and a wider array of biodiversity scientists has gained access to this massive accumulation of resources, applying them to an ever-widening compass of research pursuits. We review how these new resources and increasing access to them are affecting the landscape of biodiversity research in plants today, focusing on new applications across evolution, ecology, and other fields that have been enabled specifically by the availability of these data and the global scope that was previously beyond the reach of individual investigators. We give an overview of recent advances organized along three lines: broad-scale analyses of distributional data and spatial information, phylogenetic research circumscribing large clades with comprehensive taxon sampling, and data sets derived from improved accessibility of biodiversity literature. We also review synergies between large data resources and more traditional data collection paradigms, describe shortfalls and how to overcome them, and reflect on the future of plant biodiversity analyses in light of increasing linkages between data types and scientists in our field.

Extraordinary diversification of the “bristle flies” (Diptera: Tachinidae) and its underlying causes

The family Tachinidae (“bristle flies”) is the most diverse and ecologically important group of insect parasitoids outside the parasitic wasps. It is among the most species rich families of flies (Diptera) and has experienced a recent adaptive radiation across the globe. We make use of a molecular phylogeny of the family to examine its rapid radiation and explore the traits of tachinid lineages that may have contributed to variation in their diversification. We apply a range of diversification analyses to assess the consistency and robustness of effects. We find that the Tachinidae are among the most rapidly diversifying families of animals. Six to eight clades of bristle flies, distributed across the phylogeny, exhibit strong evidence of accelerated diversification. Our results suggest that the use of holometabolous insect larvae, and specifically caterpillars (Lepidoptera), as hosts, is associated with increased diversification rates. However, these effects were inconsistent across analyses. We detected little influence of oviposition strategy (egg type) or host feeding habit, and we recovered evidence that unmeasured “hidden” traits may explain greater variance in diversification. We evaluated the strengths and weaknesses of different Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian approaches for analysing diversification and the potential for extrinsic factors, such as geography, to influence patterns of richness and diversification. In general, we conclude that although certain traits may provide opportunities for diversification, whether this is capitalized on may depend on additional traits and/or historical contingency.

Speciation through chromosomal fusion and fission in Lepidoptera

Changes in chromosome numbers may strongly affect reproductive barriers, because individuals heterozygous for distinct karyotypes are typically expected to be at least partially sterile or to show reduced recombination. Therefore, several classic speciation models are based on chromosomal changes. One import mechanism generating variation in chromosome numbers is fusion and fission of existing chromosomes, which is particularly likely in species with holocentric chromosomes, i.e. chromosomes that lack a single centromere. Holocentric chromosomes evolved repeatedly across the tree of life, including in Lepidoptera. Although changes in chromosome numbers are hypothesized to be an important driver of the spectacular diversification of Lepidoptera, comparative studies across the order are lacking. We performed the first comprehensive literature survey of karyotypes for Lepidoptera species since the 1970s and tested if, and how, chromosomal variation might affect speciation. Even though a meta-analysis of karyological differences between closely related taxa did not reveal an effect on the degree of reproductive isolation, phylogenetic diversification rate analyses across the 16 best-covered genera indicated a strong, positive association of rates of chromosome number evolution and speciation. These findings suggest a macroevolutionary impact of varying chromosome numbers in Lepidoptera and likely apply to other taxonomic groups, especially to those with holocentric chromosomes. This article is part of the theme issue 'Towards the completion of speciation: the evolution of reproductive isolation beyond the first barriers'.

Estimating rates and patterns of diversification with incomplete sampling: a case study in the rosids

PREMISE

Recent advances in generating large-scale phylogenies enable broad-scale estimation of species diversification. These now common approaches typically are characterized by (1) incomplete species coverage without explicit sampling methodologies and/or (2) sparse backbone representation, and usually rely on presumed phylogenetic placements to account for species without molecular data. We used empirical examples to examine the effects of incomplete sampling on diversification estimation and provide constructive suggestions to ecologists and evolutionary biologists based on those results.

METHODS

We used a supermatrix for rosids and one well-sampled subclade (Cucurbitaceae) as empirical case studies. We compared results using these large phylogenies with those based on a previously inferred, smaller supermatrix and on a synthetic tree resource with complete taxonomic coverage. Finally, we simulated random and representative taxon sampling and explored the impact of sampling on three commonly used methods, both parametric (RPANDA and BAMM) and semiparametric (DR).

RESULTS

We found that the impact of sampling on diversification estimates was idiosyncratic and often strong. Compared to full empirical sampling, representative and random sampling schemes either depressed or inflated speciation rates, depending on methods and sampling schemes. No method was entirely robust to poor sampling, but BAMM was least sensitive to moderate levels of missing taxa.

CONCLUSIONS

We suggest caution against uncritical modeling of missing taxa using taxonomic data for poorly sampled trees and in the use of summary backbone trees and other data sets with high representative bias, and we stress the importance of explicit sampling methodologies in macroevolutionary studies.

Trophic innovations fuel reef fish diversification

Reef fishes are an exceptionally speciose vertebrate assemblage, yet the main drivers of their diversification remain unclear. It has been suggested that Miocene reef rearrangements promoted opportunities for lineage diversification, however, the specific mechanisms are not well understood. Here, we assemble near-complete reef fish phylogenies to assess the importance of ecological and geographical factors in explaining lineage origination patterns. We reveal that reef fish diversification is strongly associated with species' trophic identity and body size. Large-bodied herbivorous fishes outpace all other trophic groups in recent diversification rates, a pattern that is consistent through time. Additionally, we show that omnivory acts as an intermediate evolutionary step between higher and lower trophic levels, while planktivory represents a common transition destination. Overall, these results suggest that Miocene changes in reef configurations were likely driven by, and subsequently promoted, trophic innovations. This highlights trophic evolution as a key element in enhancing reef fish diversification.