Biomarker variability and cardiovascular disease residual risk

Associations of metabolic variabilities and cardiovascular outcomes according to estimated glomerular filtration rate in chronic kidney disease: a nationwide observational cohort study

BACKGROUND

The impact of baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) on the risk of adverse outcomes according to metabolic parameter variabilities in chronic kidney disease has rarely been investigated.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective nationwide cohort study using the National Health Insurance System data in Korea from 2007 to 2013 to identify individuals with three or more health screenings. The metabolic components variability was defined as intraindividual variability between measurements using the variability independent of the mean. The metabolic variability score was defined as the total number of high-variability metabolic components. Multivariable-adjusted Cox regression analysis was conducted to evaluate the risks of all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction, and ischemic stroke.

RESULTS

During a mean follow-up of 6.0 ± 0.7 years, 223,531 deaths, 107,140 myocardial infarctions, and 116,182 ischemic strokes were identified in 9,971,562 patients. Low eGFR categories and higher metabolic variability scores were associated with a higher risk of adverse outcomes. The degree of association between metabolic variability and adverse outcomes was significantly larger in those with low eGFR categories than in those with preserved eGFR (p for interaction < 0.001). Representatively, those with high metabolic variability in the eGFR of <15 mL/min/1.73 m2 group showed a prominently higher risk for all-cause mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 5.28; 95% confidence interval [CI], 4.02-6.94) when the degree was compared to the findings in those with preserved (eGFR of ≥60 mL/min/1.73 m2) kidney function (aHR, 2.55; 95% CI, 2.41-2.69).

CONCLUSION

The degree of adverse association between metabolic variability and poor prognosis is accentuated in patients with impaired kidney function.

Visit-to-visit lipid variability on long-term major adverse cardiovascular events: a prospective multicentre cohort from the CORE-Thailand registry

Lipid variability (LV) has been studied and proposed as a potential predictor for cardiovascular disease (CVD), and increased LV may contribute to adverse clinical outcomes. This study aimed to investigate the association of various LV parameters with the risk of long-term major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) among the Thai population. The study used data from the CORE-Thailand Registry, a prospective multicentre study of adults with high cardiovascular risk or established CVD. The primary outcome was 4-point MACE, including non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, heart failure hospitalisation, and all-cause mortality. LV was defined as visit-to-visit variability in individual and combined lipid parameters using the coefficient of variation (CV), and patients were stratified into four groups according to CV quartiles. The hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI), adjusted for potential confounders, were calculated using the Cox proportional hazards model. In a total of 9,390 patients, 6,041 patients with data of intra-individual LV were included. After adjusting covariates in the Cox proportional hazards model, higher LV was independently associated with an increased risk of 4-point MACE (HR for quartiles 2, 3, and 4 of the CV of total cholesterol, compared to first quartile, were 3.63 (95% CI 3.20-4.06, P < 0.001), 6.85 (95% CI 6.23-7.47, P < 0.001), and 8.91 (95% CI 8.18-9.64, P < 0.001), respectively). The present study demonstrated that higher visit-to-visit LV, particularly in the higher quartiles, was independently associated with MACE, MI, and all-cause mortality in the Thai population at high cardiovascular risk or established atherosclerotic CVD, indicating that LV might be useful as a potential risk indicator.

Variability in Lipid Profiles During Young Adulthood and the Risk of Coronary Artery Calcium Incidence in Midlife: Insights From the CARDIA Study

BACKGROUND

Intraindividual variability in lipid profiles is recognized as a potential predictor of cardiovascular events. However, the influence of early adulthood lipid profile variability along with mean lipid levels on future coronary artery calcium (CAC) incidence remains unclear.

METHODS

A total of 2395 participants (41.6% men; mean±SD age, 40.2±3.6 years) with initial CAC =0 from the CARDIA study (Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults) were included. Serial lipid measurements were obtained to calculate mean levels and variability of total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (non-HDL-C), and triglycerides. CAC incidence was defined as CAC >0 at follow-up.

RESULTS

During a mean follow-up of 9.0 years, 534 individuals (22.3%) exhibited CAC incidence. Higher mean levels of total cholesterol, LDL-C, and non-HDL-C were associated with a greater risk of future CAC incidence. Similarly, 1-SD increment of lipid variability, as assessed by variability independent of the mean, was associated with an increased risk of CAC incidence (LDL-C: hazard ratio, 1.139 [95% CI, 1.048-1.238]; P=0.002; non-HDL-C: hazard ratio, 1.102 [95% CI, 1.014-1.198]; P=0.022; and triglycerides: hazard ratio, 1.480 [95% CI, 1.384-1.582]; P<0.001). Combination analyses demonstrated that participants with both high lipid levels and high variability in lipid profiles (LDL-C and non-HDL-C) faced the greatest risk of CAC incidence. Specifically, elevated variability of LDL-C was associated with an additional risk of CAC incidence even in low mean levels of LDL-C (hazard ratio, 1.396 [95% CI, 1.106-1.763]; P=0.005). These findings remained robust across a series of sensitivity and subgroup analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

Elevated variability in LDL-C and non-HDL-C during young adulthood was associated with an increased risk of CAC incidence in midlife, especially among those with high mean levels of atherogenic lipoproteins. These findings highlight the importance of maintaining consistently low levels of atherogenic lipids throughout early adulthood to reduce subclinical atherosclerosis in midlife.

REGISTRATION

URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT00005130.

Association between visit-to-visit lipid variability and risk of ischemic heart disease: a cohort study in China

AIMS

To explore the associations between visit-to-visit lipid variability and risk of ischemic heart disease (IHD) in a population-based cohort in China.

METHODS

We evaluated lipid variability in 30,217 individuals from the Yinzhou Health Information System who had ≥3 recorded lipid measurements during 2010-2014. We used various indicators including standard deviation (SD), coefficient of variation (CV), variability independent of the mean (VIM), and average real variability (ARV) to quantify the variability in triglycerides, total cholesterol (TC), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C). We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

Overall, a total of 1305 participants with IHD were identified during the follow-up of 194,421 person-years. Subjects in Q4 had a 21% elevated risk of IHD (HR = 1.21, 95% CI: 1.03-1.41) for LDL-C variability (CV) compared with the reference (Q1). The HRs for Q4 vs Q1 were 1.21 (95% CI: 1.04-1.42) for HDL-C variability, and 1.28 (95% CI: 1.10-1.50) for TC variability. However, no association was observed between triglycerides variability and risk of IHD.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher variability in LDL-C, HDL-C, and TC levels was associated with an elevated risk of IHD, suggesting that lipid variability could be considered as an independent risk factor of IHD.

Persistence and Adherence to PCSK9 Inhibitor Monoclonal Antibodies Versus Ezetimibe in Real-World Settings

INTRODUCTION

The cardiovascular disease risk reduction benefits of proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 inhibitor monoclonal antibodies (PCSK9i mAb) and ezetimibe are dependent on remaining on treatment and being persistent and adherent. We estimated the percentage of patients on therapy, persistent and adherent at 182 and 365 days among US adults with health insurance who initiated a PCSK9i mAb (n = 16,588) or ezetimibe (n = 83,086) between July 2015 and December 2019.

METHODS

Using pharmacy fill claims, being on therapy was defined as having a day of medication supply in the last 60 of 182 and 365 days following treatment initiation, being persistent was defined as not having a gap of 60 days or more between the last day of supply from one prescription fill and the next fill, and being adherent was defined by having medication available to take on ≥ 80% of the 182 and 365 days following treatment initiation. We estimated multivariable-adjusted risk ratios for being persistent and adherent comparing patients initiating PCSK9i mAb versus ezetimibe using Poisson regression.

RESULTS

At 182 days following initiation, 80% and 68% were on therapy and 76% and 64% were persistent among patients who initiated a PCSK9i mAb and ezetimibe, respectively. Among patients who were on therapy and persistent at 182 days following initiation, 88% and 81% of those who initiated a PCSK9i mAb and ezetimibe, respectively, were on therapy at 365 days. Among those on therapy and persistent at 182 days following initiation, being persistent and being adherent at 365 days were each more common among PCSK9i mAb versus ezetimibe initiators (persistent: 82% versus 76%, multivariable-adjusted risk ratio 1.07; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.06-1.08; adherent: 74% versus 71%, multivariable-adjusted risk ratio 1.02; 95% CI 1.01-1.03).

CONCLUSIONS

These data suggest approaches to increase persistence and adherence to PCSK9i mAb and ezetimibe should be implemented prior to or within 182 days following treatment initiation.

Metabolic and Vascular Risk Factor Variability Over 25 Years Relates to Midlife Brain Volume and Cognition

BACKGROUND

Metabolic and vascular risk factors (MVRF) are associated with neurodegeneration and poor cognition. There is a need to better understand the impact of these risk factors on brain health in the decades that precede cognitive impairment. Longitudinal assessments can provide new insight regarding changes in MVRFs that are related to brain imaging features.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate whether longitudinal changes in MVRF spanning up to 25 years would be associated with midlife brain volume and cognition.

METHODS

Participants were from the CARDIA study (N = 467, age at year 25 = 50.6±3.4, female/male = 232/235, black/white = 161/306). Three models were developed, each designed to capture change over time; however, we were primarily interested in the average real variability (ARV) as a means of quantifying MVRF variability across all available assessments.

RESULTS

Multivariate partial least squares that used ARV metrics identified two significant latent variables (partial correlations ranged between 0.1 and 0.26, p < 0.01) that related MVRF ARV and regional brain volumes. Both latent variables reflected associations between brain volume and MVRF ARV in obesity, cholesterol, blood pressure, and glucose. Subsequent bivariate correlations revealed associations among MVRF factors, aggregate brain volume and cognition.

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrates that MVRF variability over time is associated with midlife brain volume in regions that are relevant to later-life cognitive decline.

Risk for Behçet's disease gauged via high-density lipoprotein cholesterol: a nationwide population-based study in Korea

Behçet’s disease (BD) is a chronic inflammatory disease. Low levels of plasma high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) are associated with Crohn’s disease, another chronic inflammatory disease. However, the effects of low HDL-C levels on BD are unclear. We investigated the effects of HDL-C levels, and variability therein, on the risk for BD. We used the Korean National Health Insurance System database to identify 5,587,754 adults without a history of BD who underwent ≥ 3 medical examinations between 2010 and 2013. Mean HDL-C levels at each visit were used to calculate variability independent of the mean (VIM) and the coefficient of variation (CV). There were 676 new cases of BD (0.012%). The risk for BD was increased in participants with highly variable and low mean HDL-C levels. In a multivariate-adjusted model, the hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for BD incidence were 1.335 (1.058–1.684) in a high mean/high VIM group, 1.527 (1.211–1.925) in a low mean/low VIM group, and 2.096 (1.67–2.63) in a low mean/high VIM group compared to a high mean/low VIM group. Low mean HDL-C levels, and high variability therein, are independent risk factors for BD.

Excessive Visit-to-Visit Small and Dense Low-Density Lipoproteins Elevate Cerebral Small Vessel Disease Progression Risk in the Elderly

Objective

Small and dense low-density lipoprotein (sdLDL) elevation may be among the most sensitive early biomarkers for nascent cardiovascular disease. This study, therefore, investigated the association between visit-to-visit changes in sdLDL and cerebral small vessel disease (CSVD) progression in older individuals, and the influence of Apolipoprotein E (APOE) genotype on this association.

Methods

Between April 2007 and July 2009, 1,143 participants ≥60 years old were recruited from the Shandong region of China, and sdLDL was measured at baseline and at each follow-up visit. White matter hyperintensities (WMHs), lacunes, microbleeds, and enlarged perivascular spaces (EPVSs) were assessed by magnetic resonance imaging. The APOE genotype was determined and participants were stratified as ε4-positive or ε4-negative.

Results

During an average follow-up of 86.0 months, 225 participants (19.7%) developed WMH progression, 193 (16.9%) lacune progression, 170 (14.9%) microbleed progression, and 185 (16.2%) EPVS progression. Compared with patients in the first (lowest) tertile of visit-to-visit mean sdLDL, those in the second and third tertiles demonstrated significantly greater risks of WMH progression (53.5 and 105.3% higher), lacune progression (53.3 and 60.8%), microbleed progression (47.2 and 127.6%), and EPVS progression (54.0 and 135.0%) after adjustment for confounders (all adjusted P values for trends <0.001). Compared with patients in the first tertile of visit-to-visit sdLDL SD, those in the second and third tertiles also demonstrated significantly greater risks of WMH progression (49.9% and 143.6%), lacune progression (75.3 and 178.0%), microbleed progression (12.7 and 64.7%), and EPVS progression (41.7 and 114.6%) after adjustment (all P < 0.001). There were significant and positive visit-to-visit mean sdLDL × visit-to-visit sdLDL SD, visit-to-visit mean sdLD×ε4-positive, visit-to-visit sdLDL SD×ε4-positive, and visit-to-visit mean sdLDL×visit-to-visit sdLDL SD×ε4-positive interactions influencing CSVD progression after confounder adjustment (all P < 0.05).

Conclusion

Large and variable visit-to-visit changes in sdLDL are independent predictors of aggressive CSVD progression, and this association is strongly influenced by APOE ε4 allele genotype.

Lipid Variability and Risk of Cardiovascular Diseases and All-Cause Mortality: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Cohort Studies

No consensus has yet been reached on the associations of lipid variability (LV) with cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and all-cause mortality. We aimed to quantify the associations of different types and metrics of LV with CVDs and all-cause mortality. PubMed, Medline, and Embase databases were searched for eligible cohort studies published until 14 December 2021. Lipids included total cholesterol (TC), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), and triglycerides (TG). Metrics of variability included standard deviation (SD), coefficient of variation (CV), and variation independent of the mean (VIM). The primary outcomes were CVDs and all-cause mortality. Random-effects meta-analysis was used to generate a summary of the relative risks (SRRs). Sources of heterogeneity were explored by subgroup analysis and meta-regression. A total of 11 articles based on seven cohorts were included. Participants in the top quartile of TC variability had an increased risk of CVDs (vs. bottom quartile: TC-CV: SRR 1.29, 95% CI 1.15-1.45; TC-SD: 1.28, 1.15-1.43; TC-VIM: 1.26, 1.13-1.41, respectively) and all-cause mortality (vs. bottom quartile: TC-CV: 1.28, 1.15-1.42; TC-SD: 1.32, 1.22-1.44; TC-VIM: 1.32, 1.25-1.40, respectively). Participants in the top quartile of HDL-C variability had an increased risk of CVDs (vs. bottom quartile: HDL-C-CV: 1.11, 1.07-1.15; HDL-C-SD: 1.18, 1.02-1.38; HDL-C-VIM: 1.18, 1.09-1.27, respectively) and all-cause mortality (vs. bottom quartile: HDL-C-CV: 1.29, 1.27-1.31; HDL-C-SD: 1.24, 1.09-1.41; HDL-C-VIM: 1.25, 1.22-1.27, respectively). LDL-C variability was also associated with an increased risk of CVDs (for top vs. bottom quartile; LDL-C-SD: 1.09, 1.02-1.17; LDL-C-VIM: 1.16, 1.02-1.32, respectively) and all-cause mortality (for top vs. bottom quartile; LDL-C-CV: 1.19, 1.04-1.36; LDL-C-SD: 1.17, 1.09-1.26, respectively). The relationships of TG variability with the risk of CVDs and all-cause mortality were inconclusive across different metrics. The effects of SRR became stronger when analyses were restricted to studies that adjusted for lipid-lowering medication and unadjusted for mean lipid levels. These findings indicate that the measurement and surveillance of lipid variability might have important clinical implications for risk assessment of CVDs and all-cause mortality.

Association between Variability of Metabolic Risk Factors and Cardiometabolic Outcomes

Despite strenuous efforts to reduce cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk by improving cardiometabolic risk factors, such as glucose and cholesterol levels, and blood pressure, there is still residual risk even in patients reaching treatment targets. Recently, researchers have begun to focus on the variability of metabolic variables to remove residual risks. Several clinical trials and cohort studies have reported a relationship between the variability of metabolic parameters and CVDs. Herein, we review the literature regarding the effect of metabolic factor variability and CVD risk, and describe possible mechanisms and potential treatment perspectives for reducing cardiometabolic risk factor variability.

Attenuating the Variability of Lipids Is Beneficial for the Hypertension Management to Reduce the Cardiovascular Morbidity and Mortality in Older Adults

Objective: To investigate the beneficial of attenuating the variability of lipids to the hypertension management in older adults.

Methods: Between April 2008 and November 2010, 1,244 hypertensive patients aged ≥60 years were recruited and randomized into placebo and rosuvastatin groups. Outcomes and inter-visit plasma lipids variability were assessed.

Results: Over an average follow-up of 83.5 months, the coefficients of variation (CVs) in total cholesterol (TCHO), triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-c), and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-c) were significantly lower in the rosuvastatin group than the placebo group (p < 0.05). The risks of composite cardiovascular event, myocardial infarction, coronary revascularization, heart failure, total stroke, ischemic stroke, cardiovascular death, and all-cause death were significantly lower in the rosuvastatin group than the placebo group (all p < 0.05). The differences in the risks were significantly diminished after the CVs for TCHO, triglycerides, HDL-c, and LDL-c were separately included as confounders. One-SD of CVs for TCHO, triglycerides, HDL-c, and LDL-c increment were significantly associated with the risks of composite cardiovascular event, myocardial infarction, heart failure, total stroke, ischemic stroke, cardiovascular death, and all-cause death, respectively (all p < 0.05).

Conclusions: Rosuvastatin significantly attenuated the intra-visit variability in lipids and decreased the risk of cardiovascular mortality and morbidity. Controlling the variability of lipids is as important as antihypertensive treatment to reduce the cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in the management of older hypertensive patients.

Clinical Trial Registration:ChiCTR.org.cn, ChiCTR-IOR-17013557.

Visit-to-visit variability of lipid and cardiovascular events in patients with familial hypercholesterolemia

Background

Visit-to-visit variability in lipid has been suggested as a predictor of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs). However, no evidence exists on the prognostic value of lipid variability in patients with familial hypercholesterolemia (FH). This prospective cohort study aimed to investigate whether lipid variability affects future MACEs in patients with FH receiving standard lipid-lowering therapy.

Methods

A total of 254 patients with FH were consecutively enrolled and followed for MACEs. Variability in the triglyceride, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C), low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C) and lipoprotein (a) [Lp(a)] were evaluated from 3 months after discharge using the standard deviation (SD), coefficient of variation (CV) and variability independent of the mean (VIM).

Results

During a mean follow-up of 49 months, 22 (8.7%) events occurred. Visit-to-visit variability in Lp(a) was significantly higher in the MACE group compared to the non-MACE group. In the multivariate Cox analysis, only Lp(a)-related parameters were independent predictors for MACEs. The hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals of each 1-SD increase of SD, CV, and VIM of Lp(a) were 1.42 (1.12-1.80), 1.50 (1.11-2.02) and 1.60 (1.16-2.22), respectively. Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed that patients with higher Lp(a) variability presented lower event-free survival. The results were consistent in various subgroups.

Conclusions

Our study firstly suggested that Lp(a) variability was associated with MACEs in real-world patients with FH, which emphasized the importance of regular lipid monitoring in the patients with high risk.

Consistent use of lipid lowering therapy in HIV infection is associated with low mortality

BACKGROUND

In people living with HIV (PLWH), statins may be disproportionately effective but remain underutilized. A large prospective trial in patients with low to moderate cardiovascular (ASCVD) risk will reveal whether they should be considered in all PLWH. But its effect size may not apply to real-world PLWH with higher ASCVD and mortality risk. Also, the clinical role of non-statin lipid-lowering therapy (LLT) and LLT adherence in this population is unknown.

METHODS

Comparative multi-level marginal structural model for all-cause mortality examining four time-updated exposure levels to LLT, antihypertensives, and aspirin in a virtual cohort of older PLWH. Incident coronary, cerebrovascular, and overall ASCVD events, serious infections, and new cancer diagnoses served as explanatory outcomes.

RESULTS

In 23,276 HIV-infected US-veterans who were followed for a median of 5.2 years after virologic suppression overall mortality was 33/1000 patient years: > 3 times higher than in the US population. Use of antihypertensives or aspirin was associated with increased mortality. Past LLT use (> 1 year ago) had no effect on mortality. LLT exposure in the past year was associated with a reduced hazard ratio (HR) of death: 0.59, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.51-0.69, p < 0.0001 for statin containing LLT and 0.71 (CI: 0.54-0.93), p = 0.03 for statin-free LLT. For consistent LLT use (> 11/12 past months) the HR of death was 0.48 (CI: 0.35-0.66) for statin-only LLT, 0.34 (CI: 0.23-0.52) for combination LLT, and 0.27 (CI: 0.15-0.48) for statin-free LLT (p < 0.0001 for all). The ASCVD risk in these patients was reduced in similar fashion. Use of statin containing LLT was also associated with reduced infection and cancer risk. Multiple contrasting subgroup analyses yielded comparable results. Confounding is unlikely to be a major contributor to our findings.

CONCLUSIONS

In PLWH, ongoing LLT use may lead to substantially lower mortality, but consistent long-term adherence may be required to reduce ASCVD risk. Consistent non-statin LLT may be highly effective and should be studied prospectively.

Greater variability in lipid measurements associated with cardiovascular disease and mortality: A 10-year diabetes cohort study

AIM

To examine the associations between variability in lipids and the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes based on low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C), the total cholesterol (TC) to high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C) ratio and triglycerides (TG).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A retrospective cohort study included 125 047 primary care patients with type 2 diabetes aged 45-84 years without CVD during 2008-2012. The variability of LDL-C, TC to HDL-C and TG was determined using the standard deviation of variables in a mixed effects model to minimize regression dilution bias. The associations between variability in lipids and CVD and mortality risk were assessed by Cox regression. Subgroup analyses based on patients' baseline characteristics were also conducted.

RESULTS

A total of 19 913 CVD events and 15 329 mortalities were recorded after a median follow-up period of 77.5 months (0.8 million person-years), suggesting a positive linear relationship between variability in lipids and the risk of CVD and mortality. Each unit increase in the variability of LDL-C (mmol/L), the TC to HDL-C ratio and TG (mmol/L) was associated with a 27% (HR: 1.27 [95% CI: 1.20-1.34]), 31% (HR:1.31 [95% CI: 1.25-1.38]) and 9% (HR: 1.09 [95% CI: 1.04-1.15]) increase in the risk of composite endpoint of CVD and mortality, respectively. Age-specific effects were also found when comparing LDL-C variability, with patients aged 45-54 years (HR: 1.70 [95% CI: 1.42-2.02]) exhibiting a 53% increased risk for the composite endpoints than those aged 75-84 years (HR: 1.11 [95% CI: 1.01-1.23]). Similar age effects were observed for both the TC to HDL-C ratio and TG variability. Significant associations remained consistent among most of the subgroups.

CONCLUSIONS

Variability in respective lipids are significant factors in predicting CVD and mortality in primary care patients with type 2 diabetes, with the strongest effects related to LDL-C and the TC to HDL-C ratio and most significant in the younger age group of patients aged 45-54 years. Further study is warranted to confirm these findings.