Joint U.S./Russian studies of population exposures resulting from nuclear production activities in the southern Urals

Revisiting the Historic Strontium-90 Ingestion Beagle Study Conducted at the University of California Davis: Opportunity in Archival Materials

Strontium-90 is a radionuclide found in high concentrations in nuclear reactor waste and nuclear fallout from reactor accidents and atomic bomb explosions. In the 1950s, little was known regarding the health consequences of strontium-90 internalization. To assess the health effects of strontium-90 ingestion in infancy through adolescence, the Atomic Energy Commission and Department of Energy funded large-scale beagle studies at the University of California Davis. Conducted from 1956 to 1989, the strontium-90 ingestion study followed roughly 460 beagles throughout their lifespans after they were exposed to strontium-90 in utero (through feeding of the mother) and fed strontium-90 feed at varying doses from weaning to age 540 days. The extensive medical data and formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tissues were transferred from UC Davis to the National Radiobiology Archive in 1992 and subsequently to the Northwestern University Radiobiology Archive in 2010. Here, we summarize the design of the strontium-90 ingestion study and give an overview of its most frequent recorded findings. As shown before, radiation-associated neoplasias (osteosarcoma, myeloproliferative syndrome and select squamous cell carcinomas) were almost exclusively observed in the highest dose groups, while the incidence of neoplasias most frequent in controls decreased as dose increased. The occurrence of congestive heart failure in each dose group, not previously assessed by UC Davis researchers, showed a non-significant increase between the controls and lower dose groups that may have been significant had sample sizes been larger. Detailed secondary analyses of these data and samples may uncover health endpoints that were not evaluated by the team that conducted the study.

How the Science of Radiation Biology Can Help Reduce the Crippling Fear of Low-level Radiation

ABSTRACT

The fear of radiation has been present almost since the discovery of radiation, but has intensified since the "dawn of the atomic age" over 75 y ago. This fear has often served as an impediment to the safe and beneficial uses of radiation and radioactive material. The underlying causes of such fear are varied, can be complex, and are often not associated with any scientific knowledge or understanding. The authors believe that a clear understanding of the current scientific knowledge and understanding of the effects of radiation exposure may be useful in helping to allay some of the fear of radiation. This manuscript attempts to (1) address several scientific questions that we believe have contributed to the fear of radiation, (2) review the data derived from research that can be used to address these questions, and (3) summarize how the results of such scientific research can be used to help address the fear of low-dose and low-dose-rate radiation. Several examples of how fear of radiation has affected public perception of radiological events are discussed, as well as a brief history of the etiology of radiation fear. Actions needed to reduce the public fear of radiation and help fulfill the full societal benefits of radiation and radioactive materials are suggested.

Radiobiology of Select Radionuclides in Hanford Site Tank Waste

There are several important radionuclides involved in the "clean-up" or environmental isolation of nuclear waste contained in US Department of Energy Hanford Site underground waste tanks that drive many of the decisions associated with this activity. To make proper human health risk analyses and ensure that the most appropriate decisions are made, it is important to understand the radiation biology and the human health risk associated with these radionuclides. This manuscript provides some basic radiological science, in particular radiation biology, for some of these radionuclides, i.e., 3 H, 90 Sr, 137 Cs, 99 Tc, 129 I, and the alpha emitters 239, 240 Pu, 233,234,235,238 U, and 241 Am. These radionuclides were selected based on their designation as "constituents of potential concern," historical significance, or potential impact on human health risk. In addition to the radiobiology of these select radionuclides, this manuscript provides brief discussions of the estimated cost of planned management of Hanford tank waste and a comparison with releases into the Techa River from activities associated with the Mayak Production Association. A set of summary conclusions of the potential human health risks associated with these radionuclides is given.

Biological and cellular responses of humans to high-level natural radiation: A clarion call for a fresh perspective on the linear no-threshold paradigm

There remains considerable uncertainty in obtaining risk estimates of adverse health outcomes of chronic low-dose radiation. In the absence of reliable direct data, extrapolation through the linear no-threshold (LNT) hypothesis forms the cardinal tenet of all risk assessments for low doses (≤ 100 mGy) and for the radiation protection principle of As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA). However, as recent evidences demonstrate, LNT assumptions do not appropriately reflect the biology of the cell at the low-dose end of the dose-response curve. In this regard, human populations living in high-level natural radiation areas (HLNRA) of the world can provide valuable insights into the biological and cellular effects of chronic radiation to facilitate improved precision of the dose-response relationship at low doses. Here, data obtained over decades of epidemiological and radiobiological studies on HLNRA populations is summarized. These studies do not show any evidence of unfavourable health effects or adverse cellular effects that can be correlated with high-level natural radiation. Contrary to the assumptions of LNT, no excess cancer risks or untoward pregnancy outcomes have been found to be associated with cumulative radiation dose or in-utero exposures. Molecular biology-driven studies demonstrate that chronic low-dose activates several cellular defence mechanisms that help cells to sense, recover, survive, and adapt to radiation stress. These mechanisms include stress-response signaling, DNA repair, immune alterations and most importantly, the radiation-induced adaptive response. The HLNRA data is consistent with the new evolving paradigms of low-dose radiobiology and can help develop the theoretical framework of an alternate dose-response model. A rational integration of radiobiology with epidemiology data is imperative to reduce uncertainties in predicting the potential health risks of chronic low doses of radiation.

Stochastic parametric skeletal dosimetry model for humans: General approach and application to active marrow exposure from bone-seeking beta-particle emitters

The objective of this study is to develop a skeleton model for assessing active marrow dose from bone-seeking beta-emitting radionuclides. This article explains the modeling methodology which accounts for individual variability of the macro- and microstructure of bone tissue. Bone sites with active hematopoiesis are assessed by dividing them into small segments described by simple geometric shapes. Spongiosa, which fills the segments, is modeled as an isotropic three-dimensional grid (framework) of rod-like trabeculae that “run through” the bone marrow. Randomized multiple framework deformations are simulated by changing the positions of the grid nodes and the thickness of the rods. Model grid parameters are selected in accordance with the parameters of spongiosa microstructures taken from the published papers. Stochastic modeling of radiation transport in heterogeneous media simulating the distribution of bone tissue and marrow in each of the segments is performed by Monte Carlo methods. Model output for the human femur at different ages is provided as an example. The uncertainty of dosimetric characteristics associated with individual variability of bone structure was evaluated. An advantage of this methodology for the calculation of doses absorbed in the marrow from bone-seeking radionuclides is that it does not require additional studies of autopsy material. The biokinetic model results will be used in the future to calculate individual doses to members of a cohort exposed to ^89,90Sr from liquid radioactive waste discharged to the Techa River by the Mayak Production Association in 1949–1956. Further study of these unique cohorts provides an opportunity to gain more in-depth knowledge about the effects of chronic radiation on the hematopoietic system. In addition, the proposed model can be used to assess the doses to active marrow under any other scenarios of ⁹⁰Sr and ⁸⁹Sr intake to humans.

Individual doses for super cohort members exposed to atmospheric radioiodine from the Mayak releases with an emphasis on prenatal doses

Time-dependent thyroid doses were reconstructed for 45,837 members of the Southern Urals Population Exposed to Radiation Cohort (SUPER-C) living in the region around the Mayak Production Association facilities in Russia from ¹³¹I released to the atmosphere from all relevant exposure pathways. The dose calculations are implemented in a Monte Carlo framework that produces best estimates and stochastic realizations of dose time-histories. The arithmetic mean thyroid dose from ¹³¹I for SUPER-C members was 195 mGy; the median was 61 mGy. Overall, ¹³¹I-thyroid doses for about 3.6% of SUPER-C members were larger than 1 Gy. For children born in 1940-1950, the dose was about 10% higher than in previous studies because doses during the prenatal period for 9,117 individuals are included in the current work. Half of the individuals born in the region in 1950-1960 who remained in the study domain through 1972 received 9.4% or more of their total dose during the prenatal period. SUPER-C members residing in areas contaminated by discharges of liquid radioactive releases into the Techa River or the Kyshtym Accident in 1957 received 80% of their thyroid dose from airborne ¹³¹I emissions.

Enhancements in the Techa River Dosimetry System: TRDS-2016D Code for Reconstruction of Deterministic Estimates of Dose From Environmental Exposures

Waterborne releases to the Techa River from the Mayak plutonium facility in Russia during 1949-1956 resulted in significant doses to persons living downstream. The dosimetry system Techa River Dosimetry System-2016D has been developed, which provides individual doses of external and internal exposure for the members of the Techa River cohort and other persons who were exposed to releases of radioactive material to the Southern Urals. The results of computation of individual doses absorbed in red bone marrow and extraskeletal tissues for the Techa River cohort members (29,647 persons) are presented, which are based on residence histories on the contaminated Techa River and the East Urals Radioactive Trace, which was formed in 1957 as a result of the Kyshtym Accident. Available Sr body-burden measurements and available information on individual household locations have been used for refinement of individual dose estimates. Techa River Dosimetry System-2016D-based dose estimates will be used for verification of risk of low-dose-rate effects of ionizing radiation in the Techa River cohort.

Recent Epidemiologic Studies and the Linear No-Threshold Model For Radiation Protection-Considerations Regarding NCRP Commentary 27

National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements Commentary 27 examines recent epidemiologic data primarily from low-dose or low dose-rate studies of low linear-energy-transfer radiation and cancer to assess whether they support the linear no-threshold model as used in radiation protection. The commentary provides a critical review of low-dose or low dose-rate studies, most published within the last 10 y, that are applicable to current occupational, environmental, and medical radiation exposures. The strengths and weaknesses of the epidemiologic methods, dosimetry assessments, and statistical modeling of 29 epidemiologic studies of total solid cancer, leukemia, breast cancer, and thyroid cancer, as well as heritable effects and a few nonmalignant conditions, were evaluated. An appraisal of the degree to which the low-dose or low dose-rate studies supported a linear no-threshold model for radiation protection or on the contrary, demonstrated sufficient evidence that the linear no-threshold model is inappropriate for the purposes of radiation protection was also included. The review found that many, though not all, studies of solid cancer supported the continued use of the linear no-threshold model in radiation protection. Evaluations of the principal studies of leukemia and low-dose or low dose-rate radiation exposure also lent support for the linear no-threshold model as used in protection. Ischemic heart disease, a major type of cardiovascular disease, was examined briefly, but the results of recent studies were considered too weak or inconsistent to allow firm conclusions regarding support of the linear no-threshold model. It is acknowledged that the possible risks from very low doses of low linear-energy-transfer radiation are small and uncertain and that it may never be possible to prove or disprove the validity of the linear no-threshold assumption by epidemiologic means. Nonetheless, the preponderance of recent epidemiologic data on solid cancer is supportive of the continued use of the linear no-threshold model for the purposes of radiation protection. This conclusion is in accord with judgments by other national and international scientific committees, based on somewhat older data. Currently, no alternative dose-response relationship appears more pragmatic or prudent for radiation protection purposes than the linear no-threshold model.

Implications of recent epidemiologic studies for the linear nonthreshold model and radiation protection

The recently published NCRP Commentary No. 27 evaluated the new information from epidemiologic studies as to their degree of support for applying the linear nonthreshold (LNT) model of carcinogenic effects for radiation protection purposes (NCRP 2018 Implications of Recent Epidemiologic Studies for the Linear Nonthreshold Model and Radiation Protection, Commentary No. 27 (Bethesda, MD: National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements)). The aim was to determine whether recent epidemiologic studies of low-LET radiation, particularly those at low doses and/or low dose rates (LD/LDR), broadly support the LNT model of carcinogenic risk or, on the contrary, demonstrate sufficient evidence that the LNT model is inappropriate for the purposes of radiation protection. An updated review was needed because a considerable number of reports of radiation epidemiologic studies based on new or updated data have been published since other major reviews were conducted by national and international scientific committees. The Commentary provides a critical review of the LD/LDR studies that are most directly applicable to current occupational, environmental and medical radiation exposure circumstances. This Memorandum summarises several of the more important LD/LDR studies that incorporate radiation dose responses for solid cancer and leukemia that were reviewed in Commentary No. 27. In addition, an overview is provided of radiation studies of breast and thyroid cancers, and cancer after childhood exposures. Non-cancers are briefly touched upon such as ischemic heart disease, cataracts, and heritable genetic effects. To assess the applicability and utility of the LNT model for radiation protection, the Commentary evaluated 29 epidemiologic studies or groups of studies, primarily of total solid cancer, in terms of strengths and weaknesses in their epidemiologic methods, dosimetry approaches, and statistical modelling, and the degree to which they supported a LNT model for continued use in radiation protection. Recommendations for how to make epidemiologic radiation studies more informative are outlined. The NCRP Committee recognises that the risks from LD/LDR exposures are small and uncertain. The Committee judged that the available epidemiologic data were broadly supportive of the LNT model and that at this time no alternative dose-response relationship appears more pragmatic or prudent for radiation protection purposes.

Calculations of individual doses for Techa River Cohort members exposed to atmospheric radioiodine from Mayak releases

Time-dependent thyroid doses were reconstructed for over 29,000 Techa River Cohort members living near the Mayak production facilities from ¹³¹I released to the atmosphere for all relevant exposure pathways. The calculational approach uses four general steps: 1) construct estimates of releases of ¹³¹I to the air from production facilities; 2) model the transport of ¹³¹I in the air and subsequent deposition on the ground and vegetation; 3) model the accumulation of ¹³¹I in environmental media; and 4) calculate individualized doses. The dose calculations are implemented in a Monte Carlo framework that produces best estimates and confidence intervals of dose time-histories. Other radionuclide contributors to thyroid dose were evaluated. The ¹³¹I contribution was 75-99% of the thyroid dose. The mean total thyroid dose for cohort members was 193 mGy and the median was 53 mGy. Thyroid doses for about 3% of cohort members were larger than 1 Gy. About 7% of children born in 1940-1950 had doses larger than 1 Gy. The uncertainty in the ¹³¹I dose estimates is low enough for this approach to be used in regional epidemiological studies.

Correction of confidence intervals in excess relative risk models using Monte Carlo dosimetry systems with shared errors

In epidemiological studies, exposures of interest are often measured with uncertainties, which may be independent or correlated. Independent errors can often be characterized relatively easily while correlated measurement errors have shared and hierarchical components that complicate the description of their structure. For some important studies, Monte Carlo dosimetry systems that provide multiple realizations of exposure estimates have been used to represent such complex error structures. While the effects of independent measurement errors on parameter estimation and methods to correct these effects have been studied comprehensively in the epidemiological literature, the literature on the effects of correlated errors, and associated correction methods is much more sparse. In this paper, we implement a novel method that calculates corrected confidence intervals based on the approximate asymptotic distribution of parameter estimates in linear excess relative risk (ERR) models. These models are widely used in survival analysis, particularly in radiation epidemiology. Specifically, for the dose effect estimate of interest (increase in relative risk per unit dose), a mixture distribution consisting of a normal and a lognormal component is applied. This choice of asymptotic approximation guarantees that corrected confidence intervals will always be bounded, a result which does not hold under a normal approximation. A simulation study was conducted to evaluate the proposed method in survival analysis using a realistic ERR model. We used both simulated Monte Carlo dosimetry systems (MCDS) and actual dose histories from the Mayak Worker Dosimetry System 2013, a MCDS for plutonium exposures in the Mayak Worker Cohort. Results show our proposed methods provide much improved coverage probabilities for the dose effect parameter, and noticeable improvements for other model parameters.

EURADOS strategic research agenda: vision for dosimetry of ionising radiation

Since autumn 2012, the European Radiation Dosimetry Group (EURADOS) has been developing its Strategic Research Agenda (SRA), which is intended to contribute to the identification of future research needs in radiation dosimetry in Europe. The present article summarises-based on input from EURADOS Working Groups (WGs) and Voting Members-five visions in dosimetry and defines key issues in dosimetry research that are considered important for the next decades. The five visions include scientific developments required towards (a) updated fundamental dose concepts and quantities, (b) improved radiation risk estimates deduced from epidemiological cohorts, (c) efficient dose assessment for radiological emergencies, (d) integrated personalised dosimetry in medical applications and (e) improved radiation protection of workers and the public. The SRA of EURADOS will be used as a guideline for future activities of the EURADOS WGs. A detailed version of the SRA can be downloaded as a EURADOS report from the EURADOS website (www.eurados.org).

(135)Cs/(137)Cs isotopic composition of environmental samples across Europe: Environmental transport and source term emission applications

(135)Cs/(137)Cs isotopic analyses represent an important tool for studying the fate and transport of radiocesium in the environment; in this work the (135)Cs/(137)Cs isotopic composition in environmental samples taken from across Europe is reported. Surface soil and vegetation samples from western Russia, Ukraine, Austria, and Hungary show consistent aged thermal fission product (135)Cs/(137)Cs isotope ratios of 0.58 ± 0.01 (age corrected to 1/1/15), with the exception of one sample of soil-moss from Hungary which shows an elevated (135)Cs/(137)Cs ratio of 1.78 ± 0.12. With the exception of the outlier sample from Hungary, surface soil/vegetation data are in quantitative agreement with values previously reported for soils within the Chernobyl exclusion zone, suggesting that radiocesium at these locations is primarily composed of homogenous airborne deposition from Chernobyl. Seawater samples taken from the Irish Sea show (135)Cs/(137)Cs isotope ratios of 1.22 ± 0.11 (age corrected to 1/1/15), suggesting aged thermal fission product Cs discharged from Sellafield. The differences in (135)Cs/(137)Cs isotope ratios between Sellafield, Chernobyl, and global nuclear weapons testing fallout indicate that (135)Cs/(137)Cs isotope ratios can be utilized to discriminate between and track radiocesium transport from different nuclear production source terms, including major emission sources in Europe.

137Cs activities and 135Cs/137Cs isotopic ratios from soils at Idaho National Laboratory: a case study for contaminant source attribution in the vicinity of nuclear facilities

Radiometric and mass spectrometric analyses of Cs contamination in the environment can reveal the location of Cs emission sources, release mechanisms, modes of transport, prediction of future contamination migration, and attribution of contamination to specific generator(s) and/or process(es). The Subsurface Disposal Area (SDA) at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) represents a complicated case study for demonstrating the current capabilities and limitations to environmental Cs analyses. (137)Cs distribution patterns, (135)Cs/(137)Cs isotope ratios, known Cs chemistry at this site, and historical records enable narrowing the list of possible emission sources and release events to a single source and event, with the SDA identified as the emission source and flood transport of material from within Pit 9 and Trench 48 as the primary release event. These data combined allow refining the possible number of waste generators from dozens to a single generator, with INL on-site research and reactor programs identified as the most likely waste generator. A discussion on the ultimate limitations to the information that (135)Cs/(137)Cs ratios alone can provide is presented and includes (1) uncertainties in the exact date of the fission event and (2) possibility of mixing between different Cs source terms (including nuclear weapons fallout and a source of interest).

Dose reconstruction for the million worker study: status and guidelines

The primary aim of the epidemiologic study of one million U.S. radiation workers and veterans [the Million Worker Study (MWS)] is to provide scientifically valid information on the level of radiation risk when exposures are received gradually over time and not within seconds, as was the case for Japanese atomic bomb survivors. The primary outcome of the epidemiologic study is cancer mortality, but other causes of death such as cardiovascular disease and cerebrovascular disease will be evaluated. The success of the study is tied to the validity of the dose reconstruction approaches to provide realistic estimates of organ-specific radiation absorbed doses that are as accurate and precise as possible and to properly evaluate their accompanying uncertainties. The dosimetry aspects for the MWS are challenging in that they address diverse exposure scenarios for diverse occupational groups being studied over a period of up to 70 y. The dosimetric issues differ among the varied exposed populations that are considered: atomic veterans, U.S. Department of Energy workers exposed to both penetrating radiation and intakes of radionuclides, nuclear power plant workers, medical radiation workers, and industrial radiographers. While a major source of radiation exposure to the study population comes from external gamma- or x-ray sources, for some of the study groups, there is a meaningful component of radionuclide intakes that requires internal radiation dosimetry assessments. Scientific Committee 6-9 has been established by the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP) to produce a report on the comprehensive organ dose assessment (including uncertainty analysis) for the MWS. The NCRP dosimetry report will cover the specifics of practical dose reconstruction for the ongoing epidemiologic studies with uncertainty analysis discussions and will be a specific application of the guidance provided in NCRP Report Nos. 158, 163, 164, and 171. The main role of the Committee is to provide guidelines to the various groups of dosimetrists involved in the MWS to ensure that certain dosimetry criteria are considered: calculation of annual absorbed doses in the organs of interest, separation of low and high linear-energy transfer components, evaluation of uncertainties, and quality assurance and quality control. It is recognized that the MWS and its approaches to dosimetry are a work in progress and that there will be flexibility and changes in direction as new information is obtained with regard to both dosimetry and the epidemiologic features of the study components. This paper focuses on the description of the various components of the MWS, the available dosimetry results, and the challenges that have been encountered. It is expected that the Committee will complete its report in 2016.