Forecasting the limits of resilience: integrating empirical research with theory

Resilience assessment in complex natural systems

Ecological resilience is the capability of an ecosystem to maintain the same structure and function and avoid crossing catastrophic tipping points (i.e. undergoing irreversible regime shifts). While fundamental for management, concrete ways to estimate and interpret resilience in real ecosystems are still lacking. Here, we develop an empirical approach to estimate resilience based on the stochastic cusp model derived from catastrophe theory. The cusp model models tipping points derived from a cusp bifurcation. We extend cusp in order to identify the presence of stable and unstable states in complex natural systems. Our Cusp Resilience Assessment (CUSPRA) has three characteristics: (i) it provides estimates on how likely a system is to cross a tipping point (in the form of a cusp bifurcation) characterized by hysteresis, (ii) it assesses resilience in relation to multiple external drivers and (iii) it produces straightforward results for ecosystem-based management. We validate our approach using simulated data and demonstrate its application using empirical time series of an Atlantic cod population and marine ecosystems in the North Sea and the Mediterranean Sea. We show that Cusp Resilience Assessment is a powerful method to empirically estimate resilience in support of a sustainable management of our constantly adapting ecosystems under global climate change.

Water filtration by endobenthic sandprawns enhances resilience against eutrophication under experimental global change conditions

Identifying processes that confer resilience against global change is a scientific challenge but is central to managing ecosystem functionality in future. Detecting resilience-enhancing mechanisms is especially relevant in coastal ecosystems, where multi-stressor interactions can drive degradation over time. Here, we quantify the resilience-conferring potential of endobenthic sandprawns against eutrophication, including under high temperatures. We show using a global change mesocosm experiment that sandprawn presence was associated with declines in phytoplankton biomass, particularly under eutrophic conditions, where sandprawns reduced phytoplankton biomass by approximately 74% and prevented a shift to extreme eutrophy. Eutrophic waters were nanophytoplankton-dominated, but sandprawn presence countered this, resulting in even contributions of pico- and nanophytoplankton. Our findings highlight the potential for sandprawns to increase resilience against eutrophication by limiting phytoplankton blooms, preventing extreme eutrophy and counteracting nanophytoplankton dominance. Incorporating endobenthic crustaceans into resilience-based management practices can assist in arresting future water quality declines in coastal ecosystems.

Response of planktonic microbial assemblages to disturbance in an urban sub-tropical estuary

Microbes are sensitive indicators of estuarine processes because they respond rapidly to dynamic disturbance events. As most of the world's population lives in urban areas and climate change-related disturbance events are becoming more frequent, estuaries bounded by cities are experiencing increasing stressors, at the same time that their ecosystem services are required more than ever. Here, using a multidisciplinary approach, we determined the response of planktonic microbial assemblages in response to seasonality and a rainfall disturbance in an urban estuary bounded by Australia's largest city, Sydney. We used molecular barcoding (16S, 18S V4 rRNA) and microscopy-based identification to compare microbial assemblages at locations with differing characteristics and urbanisation histories. Across 142 samples, we identified 8,496 unique free-living bacterial zOTUs, 8,175 unique particle associated bacterial zOTUs, and 1,920 unique microbial eukaryotic zOTUs. Using microscopy, we identified only the top <10% abundant, larger eukaryotic taxa (>10 µm), however quantification was possible. The site with the greater history of anthropogenic impact showed a more even community of associated bacteria and eukaryotes, and a significant increase in dissolved inorganic nitrogen following rainfall, when compared to the more buffered site. This coincided with a reduced proportional abundance of Actinomarina and Synechococcus spp., a change in SAR 11 clades, and an increase in the eukaryotic microbial groups Dinophyceae, Mediophyceae and Bathyoccocaceae, including a temporary dominance of the harmful algal bloom dinoflagellate Prorocentrum cordatum (syn. P. minimum). Finally, a validated hydrodynamic model of the estuary supported these results, showing that the more highly urbanised and upstream location consistently experienced a higher magnitude of salinity reduction in response to rainfall events during the study period. The best abiotic variables to explain community dissimilarities between locations were TDP, PN, modelled temperature and salinity (r = 0.73) for the free living bacteria, TP for the associated bacteria (r = 0.43), and modelled temperature (r = 0.28) for the microbial eukaryotic communities. Overall, these results show that a minor disturbance such as a brief rainfall event can significantly shift the microbial assemblage of an anthropogenically impacted area within an urban estuary to a greater degree than a seasonal change, but may result in a lesser response to the same disturbance at a buffered, more oceanic influenced location. Fine scale research into the factors driving the response of microbial communities in urban estuaries to climate related disturbances will be necessary to understand and implement changes to maintain future estuarine ecosystem services.

Evaluating the combined effect of climate and anthropogenic stressors on marine coastal ecosystems: Insights from a systematic review of cumulative impact assessment approaches

Cumulative impacts increasingly threaten marine and coastal ecosystems. To address this issue, the research community has invested efforts on designing and testing different methodological approaches and tools that apply cumulative impact appraisal schemes for a sound evaluation of the complex interactions and dynamics among multiple pressures affecting marine and coastal ecosystems. Through an iterative scientometric and systematic literature review, this paper provides the state of the art of cumulative impact assessment approaches and applications. It gives a specific attention to cutting-edge approaches that explore and model inter-relations among climatic and anthropogenic pressures, vulnerability and resilience of marine and coastal ecosystems to these pressures, and the resulting changes in ecosystem services flow. Despite recent advances in computer sciences and the rising availability of big data for environmental monitoring and management, this literature review evidenced that the implementation of advanced complex system methods for cumulative risk assessment remains limited. Moreover, experts have only recently started integrating ecosystem services flow into cumulative impact appraisal frameworks, but more as a general assessment endpoint within the overall evaluation process (e.g. changes in the bundle of ecosystem services against cumulative impacts). The review also highlights a lack of integrated approaches and complex tools able to frame, explain, and model spatio-temporal dynamics of marine and coastal ecosystems' response to multiple pressures, as required under relevant EU legislation (e.g., Water Framework and Marine Strategy Framework Directives). Progress in understanding cumulative impacts, exploiting the functionalities of more sophisticated machine learning-based approaches (e.g., big data integration), will support decision-makers in the achievement of environmental and sustainability objectives.

Disturbance legacy of a 100-year flood event: large wood accelerates plant diversity resilience on gravel-bed rivers

Understanding biodiversity resilience after a major disturbance is a key issue in basic and applied science. Plant diversity in gravel-bed rivers is affected by flood events, which are one of the most effective disturbance agents in the flow regime, affecting species distribution, and ecosystem dynamics. Although disturbance plays a critical role in community assembly mechanisms, how plant diversity recovers after a severe disturbance, such as a 100-year flood event remains unknown. The present study examined how the disturbance legacy of large wood in gravel-bed river ecosystems contributes to the resilience of plant diversity. The present study demonstrated that the resilience of plant species in disturbance legacy sites, namely deposited large wood sites, was higher than that in open habitat sites. Indicator species analysis revealed that perennial plants were the most important indicator species of disturbance legacy sites. These results suggest that perennial species richness contributes to the resilience of high plant diversity across the disturbance legacy sites in this region. After major flood events, land managers often remove large wood and debris jams to avoid secondary disasters, such as embankment collapse. However, we suggest that large wood should be retained on the gravel beds to aid the recovery of biodiversity and ecosystems. Furthermore, understanding the relationships between disturbance legacies and ecosystem resilience can contribute to the formulation of strategies for sustainable ecosystem management and biodiversity conservation in the future.

Effects of COVID-19 lockdowns on shorebird assemblages in an urban South African sandy beach ecosystem

Human pressures are pervasive in coastal ecosystems, but their effect magnitudes are masked by methodological limitations. Government lockdowns associated with the global COVID-19 pandemic can address this gap since lockdowns are effectively manipulations of human presence in ecosystems at scales unachievable otherwise. We illustrate this using a study on shorebirds in an urban South African sandy beach ecosystem. Data collected prior to (2019) and during the COVID-19 (2020) pandemic indicated an inverse relationship between shorebird and human numbers, but this was stronger in 2020. In 2020, human exclusion resulted in a six-fold increase in shorebird abundance relative to 2019. Following easing of lockdowns, shorebird abundance declined by 79.6% with a 34.1% increase in human density. Our findings highlight the sensitivity of shorebirds to recreational disturbance, the potential for current methodological approaches to underestimate repercussions of disturbance and the capacity for COVID-19 lockdowns to refine understanding of human-induced stress in ecosystems.

Quantifying the dynamics of rocky intertidal sessile communities along the Pacific coast of Japan: implications for ecological resilience

Long-term patterns in trajectories of natural communities provide insights into ecological resilience, but their assessment requires long-term census data. We analyzed 16-year census data for intertidal communities from 30 rocky shores along Japan’s Pacific coast to assign community change to four possible trajectories (stable, reversible, abrupt, or linear) representing different aspects of ecological resilience, and to estimate multiple metrics of temporal invariability (species richness, species composition, and community abundance). We examined (1) how the prevalence of the four trajectories differs among regions, (2) how the features (model coefficients) of each trajectory vary among regions, and (3) how the temporal invariabilities differ among trajectories and regions. We found that the stable trajectory was the most common. Its features differed among regions, with a faster recovery to steady-state equilibrium in low-latitude regions. Furthermore, trajectories and temporal invariabilities both varied among regions, seemingly in association with the strength of ocean current fluctuations. Thus, the relationship between community temporal invariability and trajectory may be weak or absent, at least at the regional scale.

Saltmarsh resilience controlled by patch size and plant density of habitat-forming species that trap shells

Habitat fragmentaion into small patches is regarded as a vital cause of biodiversity loss. Fragmentationof habitat-forming species is especially harmful, as patchiness of such species often controls ecosystem stability and resilience by density and patch size-dependent self-reinforcing feedbacks. Although fragmentation are expected to weaken or even break such feedbacks, it remains unclear how the resulting patchiness of habitat-forming species affect ecosystem resilience to environmental stresses. Here, using Spartian alterniflora, the habitat-forming species in saltmarshes as a model, we investigate how patch size, plant density, and shell aggregation interactively control the persistence of a degrading salt marsh that suffered from erosion induced by hydrodynamics. Our results demonstrate that large patches can trap more shells along the patch edge than the smaller ones, therefore significantly facilitating plant re-growth within the patch. Shell removal experiments further reveal that large patches trapping more shells along patch edges reinforce their own persistence by decreasing erosion and thus facilitating plant recovery. By contrast, small patches with lesser plants cannot persist as they trap less shells along patch edges but are able to accumulate more shells at interior locations where they hinder plant re-growth, indicating a critical threshold of patch size ~20 m² below which ecosystem collapses. The current study highlights the importance to identify critical threshold of stress-resistant patch sizes in transition-prone ecosystems as early-warning to alert undesired ecosystem collapse and restoration practice.

An intertidal life: Combined effects of acidification and winter heatwaves on a coralline alga (Ellisolandia elongata) and its associated invertebrate community

In coastal marine ecosystems coralline algae often create biogenic reefs. These calcareous algal reefs affect their associated invertebrate communities via diurnal oscillations in photosynthesis, respiration and calcification processes. Little is known about how these biogenic reefs function and how they will be affected by climate change. We investigated the winter response of a Mediterranean intertidal biogenic reef, Ellissolandia elongata exposed in the laboratory to reduced pH conditions (i.e. ambient pH - 0.3, RCP 8.5) together with an extreme heatwave event (+1.4 °C for 15 days). Response variables considered both the algal physiology (calcification and photosynthetic rates) and community structure of the associated invertebrates (at taxonomic and functional level). The combination of a reduced pH with a heatwave event caused Ellisolandia elongata to significantly increase photosynthetic activity. The high variability of calcification that occurred during simulated night time conditions, indicates that there is not a simple, linear relationship between these two and may indicate that it will be resilient to future conditions of climate change. In contrast, the associated fauna were particularly negatively affected by the heatwave event, which impoverished the communities as opportunistic taxa became dominant. Local increases in oxygen and pH driven by the algae can buffer the microhabitat in the algal fronds, thus favouring the survival of small invertebrates.

Phenotypic plasticity under rapid global changes: The intrinsic force for future seagrasses survival

Coastal oceans are particularly affected by rapid and extreme environmental changes with dramatic consequences for the entire ecosystem. Seagrasses are key ecosystem engineering or foundation species supporting diverse and productive ecosystems along the coastline that are particularly susceptible to fast environmental changes. In this context, the analysis of phenotypic plasticity could reveal important insights into seagrasses persistence, as it represents an individual property that allows species' phenotypes to accommodate and react to fast environmental changes and stress. Many studies have provided different definitions of plasticity and related processes (acclimation and adaptation) resulting in a variety of associated terminology. Here, we review different ways to define phenotypic plasticity with particular reference to seagrass responses to single and multiple stressors. We relate plasticity to the shape of reaction norms, resulting from genotype by environment interactions, and examine its role in the presence of environmental shifts. The potential role of genetic and epigenetic changes in underlying seagrasses plasticity in face of environmental changes is also discussed. Different approaches aimed to assess local acclimation and adaptation in seagrasses are explored, explaining strengths and weaknesses based on the main results obtained from the most recent literature. We conclude that the implemented experimental approaches, whether performed with controlled or field experiments, provide new insights to explore the basis of plasticity in seagrasses. However, an improvement of molecular analysis and the application of multi-factorial experiments are required to better explore genetic and epigenetic adjustments to rapid environmental shifts. These considerations revealed the potential for selecting the best phenotypes to promote assisted evolution with fundamental implications on restoration and preservation efforts.

Sampling frequency, duration and the Southern Oscillation influence the ability of long-term studies to detect sudden change

Ecologists have long acknowledged the importance of context dependency related to position along spatial gradients. It is also acknowledged that broad-scale climate patterns can directly and indirectly alter population dynamics. What is not often addressed is whether climate patterns such as the Southern Oscillation interact with population-level temporal patterns and affect the ability of time-series data, such as long-term state of the environment monitoring programmes, to detect change. Monitoring design criteria generally focus on number of data points, sampling frequency and duration, often derived from previous information on species seasonal and multi-year temporal patterns. Our study questioned whether the timing of any changes relative to Southern Oscillation, interacting with species populations dynamics, would also be important. We imposed a series of simulated reductions on macrofaunal abundance data collected regularly over 29 years from two sites, using species selected for observed differences in temporal dynamics. We hypothesized that (1) high within-year sampling frequency would increase detection ability for species with repeatable seasonality cycles and (2) timing of the reduction in abundance relative to the Southern Oscillation was only likely to affect detection ability for long-lived species with multi-year cyclic patterns in abundance. However, regardless of species population dynamics, we found both within-year sampling frequency and the timing of the imposed reduction relative to the Southern Oscillation Index affected detection ability. The latter result, while apparently demonstrating a confounding influence on monitoring, offers the opportunity to improve our ability to detect and interpret analyses of monitoring data, and thus our ability to make recommendations to managers.

Natural recovery of a marine foundation species emerges decades after landscape-scale mortality

Globally, the conditions and time scales underlying coastal ecosystem recovery following disturbance remain poorly understood, and post-disturbance examples of resilience based on long-term studies are particularly rare. Here, we documented the recovery of a marine foundation species (turtlegrass) following a hypersalinity-associated die-off in Florida Bay, USA, one of the most spatially extensive mortality events for seagrass ecosystems on record. Based upon annual sampling over two decades, foundation species recovery across the landscape was demonstrated by two ecosystem responses: the range of turtlegrass biomass met or exceeded levels present prior to the die-off, and turtlegrass regained dominance of seagrass community structure. Unlike reports for most marine taxa, recovery followed without human intervention or reduction to anthropogenic impacts. Our long-term study revealed previously uncharted resilience in subtropical seagrass landscapes but warns that future persistence of the foundation species in this iconic ecosystem will depend upon the frequency and severity of drought-associated perturbation.

Resilience of Tropical Ecosystems to Ocean Deoxygenation

The impacts of ocean deoxygenation on biodiversity and ecosystem function are well established in temperate regions, and here we illustrate how the study of hypoxia in tropical ecosystems can offer insights of general importance. We first describe how mechanisms of resilience have developed in response to naturally occurring hypoxia across three tropical ecosystems: coral reefs, seagrass beds, and mangrove forests. We then suggest that the vulnerability of these systems to deoxygenation lies in interactions with other stressors that are increasing rapidly in the Anthropocene. Finally, we advocate for the adoption of a broader community- and ecosystem-level perspective that incorporates mutualisms, feedbacks, and mechanisms of self-rescue and recovery to develop a better predictive understanding of the effects of deoxygenation in coastal ecosystems.

Biodiversity Loss Threatens the Current Functional Similarity of Beta Diversity in Benthic Diatom Communities

The global biodiversity loss has increased the need to understand the effects of decreasing diversity, but our knowledge on how species loss will affect the functioning of communities and ecosystems is still very limited. Here, the levels of taxonomic and functional beta diversity and the effect of species loss on functional beta diversity were investigated in an estuary that provides a naturally steep environmental gradient. The study was conducted using diatoms that are among the most important microorganisms in all aquatic ecosystems and globally account for 40% of marine primary production. Along the estuary, the taxonomic beta diversity of diatom communities was high (Bray-Curtis taxonomic similarity 0.044) and strongly controlled by the environment, particularly wind exposure, salinity, and temperature. In contrast, the functional beta diversity was low (Bray-Curtis functional similarity 0.658) and much less controlled by the environment. Thus, the diatom communities stayed functionally almost similar despite large changes in species composition and environment. This may indicate that, through high taxonomic diversity and redundancy in functions, microorganisms provide an insurance effect against environmental change. However, when studying the effect of decreasing species richness on functional similarity of communities, simulated species loss to 45% of the current species richness decreased functional similarity significantly. This suggests that decreasing species richness may increase variability and reduce the stability and resilience of communities. These results highlight the importance of high taxonomic biodiversity for the stable functioning of benthic communities.

Seawater Acidification Affects Beta-Diversity of Benthic Communities at a Shallow Hydrothermal Vent in a Mediterranean Marine Protected Area (Underwater Archaeological Park of Baia, Naples, Italy)

One of the most important pieces of climate change evidence is ocean acidification. Acidification effects on marine organisms are widely studied, while very little is known regarding its effects on assemblages’ β-diversity. In this framework, shallow hydrothermal vents within a Marine Protected Area (MPA) represent natural ecosystems acting as laboratory set-ups where the continuous carbon dioxide emissions affect assemblages with consequences that can be reasonably comparable to the effects of global water acidification. The aim of the present study is to test the impact of seawater acidification on the β-diversity of soft-bottom assemblages in a shallow vent field located in the Underwater Archeological Park of Baia MPA (Gulf of Naples, Mediterranean Sea). We investigated macro- and meiofauna communities of the ‘Secca delle fumose’ vent system in sites characterized by sulfurous (G) and carbon dioxide emissions (H) that are compared with control/inactive sites (CN and CS). Statistical analyses were performed on the most represented macrobenthic (Mollusca, Polychaeta, and Crustacea), and meiobenthic (Nematoda) taxa. Results show that the lowest synecological values are detected at H and, to a lesser extent, at G. Multivariate analyses show significant differences between hydrothermal vents (G, H) and control/inactive sites; the highest small-scale heterogeneities (measure of β-diversity) are detected at sites H and G and are mainly affected by pH, TOC (Total Organic Carbon), and cations concentrations. Such findings are probably related to acidification effects, since MPA excludes anthropic impacts. In particular, acidification markedly affects β-diversity and an increase in heterogeneity among sample replicates coupled to a decrease in number of taxa is an indicator of redundancy loss and, thus, of resilience capacity. The survival is assured to either tolerant species or those opportunistic taxa that can find good environmental conditions among gravels of sand.

The impacts of polyethylene terephthalate microplastics (mPETs) on ecosystem functionality in marine sediment

The effects of microplastics (MPs) on the ecological functioning in marine sediments is largely unknown. However, coastal marine sediments and their resident communities play critical roles in the transformation of organic matter and the cycling of nutrients that influence both local and global processes. To investigate how microplastics influence ecosystem functions associated with sediment biogeochemistry, large bivalves and microphytobenthos, we conducted a 31-day laboratory experiment. The experiment tested the role of micro-polyethylene terephthalate (mPETs) at five concentrations (0%, 1%, 3%, 6%, and 8% based on wet weight of top 1 cm sediment). Canonical principle of coordinate analysis (CAP) was applied to assess change on the ecosystem functionality with increasing concentrations of mPETs. Our results highlight that stress effects on ecosystem function are the product of the interaction between Macomona liliana, microphytobenthos and mPETs.

Stress induced by crude glycerol in a thermophilic digester: microbial community divergence and resilience, but slow process recovery

Recovery from stress is an important property for anaerobic digestion (AD). Although AD is quite adaptable with regard to waste composition, new substrates added to stable systems may cause process decline. We tested whether crude glycerol would cause stress to a thermophilic AD microbiome previously stabilized long-term on a low C/N ratio feedstock. Three-percent (v/v) crude glycerol was added to the basal substrate (poultry litter) for two hydraulic retention time (HRT) periods. This caused stress where biogas volume and methane percentage dramatically decreased and VFA levels increased. When the basal substrate was resumed, secondary inhibition occurred, resulting in even greater stress (biogas production ceased, methane 3.6%). Unassisted recovery of system processes required eight HRT periods. In contrast, crude glycerol applied at a lower organic loading rate did not cause inhibition. Crude glycerol caused changes in dominance in the microbial community (16S rRNA pyrotags). Although process resilience was slow, the recovery of digester functions occurred in conjunction with the recovery of community structure, particularly putative syntrophic acetate-oxidizing bacteria. KEY POINTS: • Crude glycerol caused stress in thermophilic co-digestion with poultry litter. • Unassisted resilience of digester functions (methane) required 8 HRT. • Syntrophic acetate-oxidizing bacteria implicated for keystone resilience functions. Graphical abstract.

Higher fire frequency impaired woody species regeneration in a south-eastern Amazonian forest

Understorey wildfires harm tropical forests by affecting natural regeneration, but the trajectories of fire-disturbed forests after disturbance are poorly understood. To fill this gap, we conducted experimental burns in a transitional forest between the Amazon forests and the Brazilian Savanna (Cerrado) and investigated their effects on plant community diversity of regeneration. The experiment consisted of three 50-ha plots that between 2004 and 2010 were burned either annually (six times), every three years (thrice) or not at all (Control). To evaluate early post-fire recovery, we recorded grass occurrence and regenerating stems (≤1 cm in diameter at breast height). We noted that high fire-frequency plots had a reduction of species richness (62%) and abundance (84%) and were associated with floristic and structural changes, dominance of few species and increase of grass colonization when compared with low fire-frequency. We observed that resprouts were the main pathway for forest restoration in both burned regimes, particularly in low fire-frequency. However, the forest can recover from fires by means of resprouting, until a threshold in fire frequency is reached, when resprouts and seedlings declined for most of the species, with a few fire-tolerant species becoming dominant.

Heat wave intensity can vary the cumulative effects of multiple environmental stressors on Posidonia oceanica seedlings

Climate change is introducing new stressors into already stressed ecosystems. Among these, extreme events such as heat waves play a crucial role in determining the structure of ecosystems. We tested single and combined effects of overgrazing, burial and heat waves on the seedlings of the habitat-forming species Posidonia oceanica. At current heat wave temperatures, overgrazing in isolation had more deleterious effects than seed burial, and effects were synergistic and additive when both factors co-occurred. The combined effect of overgrazing and seed burial with current heat waves could hamper P. oceanica seedling development, with similar or even higher levels than the sole effect of heat waves in the near future (29 °C). The effects of overgrazing and seed burial are expected to be overridden if heat waves temperatures exceed 29 °C. These results suggest that co-occurring environmental stressors, in combination with current heat waves, could compromise the sexual recruitment of this seagrass.

Compensatory indirect effects of an herbicide on wetland communities

The direct effects of large-scale disturbances are readily studied because their effects are often apparent and result in large changes to ecosystems. Direct effects can cascade through the ecosystem, leading to indirect effects that are often subtle and difficult to detect. Managing anthropogenic disturbances, such as chemical contamination, requires an understanding of both direct and indirect effects to predict, measure, and characterize the impact. Using a replicated whole-ecosystem experiment and path analyses (assesses the effects of a set of variables on a specified outcome, similar to multiple regression), we examined the direct and indirect effects of a glyphosate-based herbicide and nutrient enrichment on wetland communities. The latter did not impact any measured endpoints. The strongest drivers of macrophyte, benthic invertebrate, and amphibian assemblages were the ephemerality and the size of wetlands, factors which were not altered by herbicide applications. The herbicide had a direct negative effect on macrophyte cover, amphibian larval abundance, and the proportion of predatory benthic invertebrates. However, both amphibians and invertebrates were positively affected by the reduction in the macrophyte cover caused by the herbicide applications. The opposing directions of the direct and indirect effects lead to no net change in either group. The compensatory dynamics observed herein highlight the need for a better understanding of indirect effects pathways to determine whether common anthropogenic disturbances alter the ecological communities in small wetland ecosystems.

Resilience of aquatic systems: Review and management implications

Our understanding of how ecosystems function has changed from an equilibria-based view to one that recognizes the dynamic, fluctuating, nonlinear nature of aquatic systems. This current understanding requires that we manage systems for resilience. In this review, we examine how resilience has been defined, measured and applied in aquatic systems, and more broadly, in the socioecological systems in which they are embedded. Our review reveals the importance of managing stressors adversely impacting aquatic system resilience, as well as understanding the environmental and climatic cycles and changes impacting aquatic resources. Aquatic resilience may be enhanced by maintaining and enhancing habitat connectivity as well as functional redundancy and physical and biological diversity. Resilience in aquatic socioecological system may be enhanced by understanding and fostering linkages between the social and ecological subsystems, promoting equity among stakeholders, and understanding how the system is impacted by factors within and outside the area of immediate interest. Management for resilience requires implementation of adaptive and preferably collaborative management. Implementation of adaptive management for resilience will require an effective monitoring framework to detect key changes in the coupled socioecological system. Research is needed to (1) develop sensitive indicators and monitoring designs, (2) disentangle complex multi-scalar interactions and feedbacks, and (3) generalize lessons learned across aquatic ecosystems and apply them in new contexts.

Biodiversity breakpoints along stress gradients in estuaries and associated shifts in ecosystem interactions

Denitrification in coastal sediments can provide resilience to eutrophication in estuarine ecosystems, but this key ecosystem function is impacted directly and indirectly by increasing stressors. The erosion and loading of fine sediments from land, resulting in sedimentation and elevated sediment muddiness, presents a significant threat to coastal ecosystems worldwide. Impacts on biodiversity with increasing sediment mud content are relatively well understood, but corresponding impacts on denitrification are uncharacterised. Soft sediment ecosystems have a network of interrelated biotic and abiotic ecosystem components that contribute to microbial nitrogen cycling, but these components (especially biodiversity measures) and their relationships with ecosystem functions are sensitive to stress. With a large dataset spanning broad environmental gradients this study uses interaction network analysis to present a mechanistic view of the ecological interactions that contribute to microbial nitrogen cycling, showing significant changes above and below a stressor (mud) threshold. Our models demonstrate that positive biodiversity effects become more critical with a higher level of sedimentation stress, and show that effective ecosystem management for resilience requires different action under different scenarios.

Short-interval severe fire erodes the resilience of subalpine lodgepole pine forests

Subalpine forests in the northern Rocky Mountains have been resilient to stand-replacing fires that historically burned at 100- to 300-year intervals. Fire intervals are projected to decline drastically as climate warms, and forests that reburn before recovering from previous fire may lose their ability to rebound. We studied recent fires in Greater Yellowstone (Wyoming, United States) and asked whether short-interval (<30 years) stand-replacing fires can erode lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia) forest resilience via increased burn severity, reduced early postfire tree regeneration, reduced carbon stocks, and slower carbon recovery. During 2016, fires reburned young lodgepole pine forests that regenerated after wildfires in 1988 and 2000. During 2017, we sampled 0.25-ha plots in stand-replacing reburns (n = 18) and nearby young forests that did not reburn (n = 9). We also simulated stand development with and without reburns to assess carbon recovery trajectories. Nearly all prefire biomass was combusted ("crown fire plus") in some reburns in which prefire trees were dense and small (≤4-cm basal diameter). Postfire tree seedling density was reduced sixfold relative to the previous (long-interval) fire, and high-density stands (>40,000 stems ha-1) were converted to sparse stands (<1,000 stems ha-1). In reburns, coarse wood biomass and aboveground carbon stocks were reduced by 65 and 62%, respectively, relative to areas that did not reburn. Increased carbon loss plus sparse tree regeneration delayed simulated carbon recovery by >150 years. Forests did not transition to nonforest, but extreme burn severity and reduced tree recovery foreshadow an erosion of forest resilience.

Monitoring for tipping points in the marine environment

Increasingly studies are reporting sudden and dramatic changes in the structure and function of communities or ecosystems. The prevalence of these reports demonstrates the importance for management of being able to detect whether these have happened and, preferably, whether they are likely to occur. Ecological theory provides the rationale for why such changes occur and a variety of statistical indicators of approach that have generic properties have been developed. However, whether the theory has successfully translated into monitoring programmes is unknown. We searched the literature for guidelines that would drive design of monitoring programmes able to detect past and approaching tipping points and analysed marine monitoring programmes in New Zealand. We found very few guidelines in the ecological, environmental or monitoring literature, although both simulation and marine empirical studies suggest that within-year sampling increases the likelihood of detecting approaching tipping points. The combination of the need to monitor both small and medium scale temporal dynamics of multiple variables to detect tipping points meant that few marine monitoring programmes in New Zealand were fit for that purpose. Interestingly, we found many marine examples of studies detecting past and approaching TP with fewer data than was common in the theoretical literature. We, therefore, suggest that utilizing ecological knowledge is of paramount importance in designing and analyzing time-series monitoring for tipping points and increasing the certainty for short-term or infrequent datasets of whether a tipping point has occurred. As monitoring plays an important role in management of tipping points by providing supporting information for other locations about when and why a tipping point may occur, we believe that monitoring for tipping points should be promoted.

Assessing sensitivities of marine areas to stressors based on biological traits

Analysis of the biological traits (e.g., feeding mode and size) that control how organisms interact with their environment has been used to identify environmental drivers of, or impacts on, species and to explain the importance of biodiversity loss. Biological trait analysis (BTA) could also be used within risk-assessment frameworks or in conservation planning if one understands the groups of traits that predict the sensitivity of habitats or communities to specific human activities. Deriving sensitivities from BTA should extend sensitivity predictions to a variety of habitats, especially those in which it would be difficult to conduct experiments (e.g., due to depth or risk to human life) and to scales beyond the norm of most experiments. We used data on epibenthos, collected via video along transects at 27 sites in a relatively pristine region of the seafloor, to determine scales of natural spatial variability of derived sensitivities and the degree to which predictions of sensitivity differed among 3 stressors (extraction of species, sedimentation, and suspended sediments) or were affected by underlying community compositions. We used 3 metrics (weighted abundance, abundance of highly sensitive species, and number of highly sensitive species) to derive sensitivity to these stressors and simulated the ability of these metrics to detect a range of stressor intensities. Regardless of spatial patterns of sensitivities across the sampled area, BTA distinguished differences in sensitivity to different stressors. The BTA also successfully separated differences in community composition from differences in sensitivity to stressors. Conversely, the 3 metrics differed widely in their ability to detect simulated impacts and likely reflect underlying ecological processes, suggesting that use of multiple metrics would be informative for spatial planning and allocating conservation priorities. Our results suggest BTA could be used as a first step in strategic prioritization of protected areas and as an underlying layer for spatial planning.

Benthic responses to an Antarctic regime shift: food particle size and recruitment biology

Polar ecosystems are bellwether indicators of climate change and offer insights into ecological resilience. In this study, we describe contrasting responses to an apparent regime shift of two very different benthic communities in McMurdo Sound, Antarctica. We compared species-specific patterns of benthic invertebrate abundance and size between the west (low productivity) and east (higher productivity) sides of McMurdo Sound across multiple decades (1960s-2010) to depths of 60 m. We present possible factors associated with the observed changes. A massive and unprecedented shift in sponge recruitment and growth on artificial substrata observed between the 1980s and 2010 contrasts with lack of dramatic sponge settlement and growth on natural substrata, emphasizing poorly understood sponge recruitment biology. We present observations of changes in populations of sponges, bryozoans, bivalves, and deposit-feeding invertebrates in the natural communities on both sides of the sound. Scientific data for Antarctic benthic ecosystems are scant, but we gather multiple lines of evidence to examine possible processes in regional-scale oceanography during the eight years in which the sea ice did not clear out of the southern portion of McMurdo Sound. We suggest that large icebergs blocked currents and advected plankton, allowed thicker multi-year ice, and reduced light to the benthos. This, in addition to a possible increase in iron released from rapidly melting glaciers, fundamentally shifted the quantity and quality of primary production in McMurdo Sound. A hypothesized shift from large to small food particles is consistent with increased recruitment and growth of sponges on artificial substrata, filter-feeding polychaetes, and some bryozoans, as well as reduced populations of bivalves and crinoids that favor large particles, and echinoderms Sterechinus neumayeri and Odontaster validus that predominantly feed on benthic diatoms and large phytoplankton mats that drape the seafloor after spring blooms. This response of different guilds of filter feeders to a hypothesized shift from large to small phytoplankton points to the enormous need for and potential value of holistic monitoring programs, particularly in pristine ecosystems, that could yield both fundamental ecological insights and knowledge that can be applied to critical conservation concerns as climate change continues.

Translating Ecological Integrity terms into operational language to inform societies

It is crucial that societies are informed on the risks of impoverished ecosystem health for their well-being. For this purpose, Ecological Integrity (EI) is a useful concept that seeks to capture the complex nature of ecosystems and their interaction with social welfare. But the challenge remains to measure EI and translate scientific terminology into operational language to inform society. We propose an approach that simplifies marine ecosystem complexity by applying scientific knowledge to identify which components reflect the state or state change of ecosystems. It follows a bottom-up structure that identifies, based on expert knowledge, biological components related with past and present changing conditions. It is structured in 5 stages that interact in an adaptive way: stage 1, in situ observations suggest changes could be happening; stage 2 explores available data that represent EI; stage 3, experts' workshops target the identification of the minimum set of variables needed to define EI, or the risk of losing EI; an optative stage 4, where deviance from EI, or risk of deviance, is statistically assessed; stage 5, findings are communicated to society. We demonstrate the framework effectiveness in three case studies, including a data poor situation, an area where lack of reference sites hampers the identification of historical changes, and an area where diffuse sources of stress make it difficult to identify simple relationships with of ecological responses. The future challenge is to operationalise the approach and trigger desirable society actions to strengthen a social-nature link.

How agricultural multiple ecosystem services respond to socioeconomic factors in Mengyin County, China

Provisioning services have always been the main focus of agriculture, and which have led to a decline in biodiversity and have damaged a number of other services. Agriculture should contribute to current and future food security while producing multiple ecosystem services (ES). Restoration outcomes of multiple ES were affected by different socioeconomic drivers, thus a better understanding of how multiple ES respond to socioeconomic drivers can help to restore multiple ES. This paper used rural people's perceptions of ES to quantify and map ecosystem service obtainment and demand in the Mengyin County, China. An integrative index of multiple ecosystem services (IMES) was used to effectively aggregate the values of multiple ES. The threat categorization framework is designed to communicate the degree to which the adequate and sustainable provision of multiple ES is threatened, in order to prioritize conservation actions. The results revealed that 6 townships in the Mengyin County exhibited an excessive obtainment situation (demand is less than obtainment) of multiple ES; an insufficient obtainment situation (demand is greater than obtainment) of multiple ES was mainly situated in the northern part of Mengyin County. Overall, the current state of multiple ES across Mengyin County is classified as "Endangered" classification according to application of threat categorization framework. It is necessary to restructure and manage socioeconomic factors for multiple ES. At national level, the macro decision-making (controlling population density) and the mechanisms (attracting high-quality human resources into the rural) will play an important role in promoting multiple ES management, and it is necessary to provide 3 or more years of tailored educational resources for rural residents to advance multiple ES in agricultural landscape. Development of agricultural PES programs in China that enable farmers to profit from production ES is a sustainable strategy for increasing multiple ecosystem services.

Eutrophication affects the resistance of fucoids to an introduced alga spread

This study investigates whether eutrophication can affect the capacity of the canopy alga Cystoseira brachycarpa to impede or limit the spread of the introduced species Caulerpa cylindracea. By means of a manipulative field study (16 months long), the effects of nutrient enrichment and C. cylindracea removal were tested on the canopy-alga and the associated macroalgal community. Results highlighted deep changes through time due to nutrient enrichment, as C. brachycarpa decreased and Halopteris scoparia increased in cover. Furthermore, C. brachycarpa was also affected by the presence of the introduced species Caulerpa cylindracea which, in turn, was found significantly advantaged by nutrient enrichment. Overall, our findings suggest that eutrophication can drive the substitution of Cystoseira with H. scoparia, leading to the shift from canopy to opportunistic species, which are unable to avoid the spread of C. cylindracea.

Quantifying long-term plant community dynamics with movement models: implications for ecological resilience

Quantification of rates and patterns of community dynamics is central for understanding the organization and function of ecosystems. These insights may support a greater empirical understanding of ecological resilience, and the application of resilience concepts toward ecosystem management. Distinct types of dynamics in natural communities can be used to interpret and apply resilience concepts, but quantitative methods that can systematically distinguish among them are needed. We develop a quantitative method to analyze long-term records of plant community dynamics using principles of movement ecology. We analyzed dissimilarity of species composition through time with linear and nonlinear statistical models to assign community change to four classes of movement trajectories. Compositional change in each sampled plot through time was classified into four classes, stability, abrupt nonlinear change, transient reversible change, and gradual linear drift, each representing a different aspect of ecological resilience. These competing models were evaluated based on estimated coefficients, goodness of fit, and parsimony. We tested our method's accuracy and robustness through simulations, or the ability to distinguish among trajectories and classify them correctly. We simulated 16,000 trajectories of four types, of which 94-100% were correctly classified. Next, we analyzed 13 long-term vegetation records from North American grasslands (annual grasslands with warm-season and cool-season communities, shortgrass, mixedgrass, and tallgrass prairies, and sagebrush steppe), and a record of primary succession at Mt. St. Helens volcano. Collectively, we analyzed 14,647 observations from 775 plots, between 1915 and 2012. Dynamics could be reliably assigned for 705 plots (91%), and overall statistical fit was high (goodness of fit, 0.77 ± 0.15 SD). Among the perennial grasslands, stability was most common (44% of all plots), followed by gradual linear (22%), abrupt nonlinear (17%), and reversible (6%) change. Among annual grasslands, abrupt nonlinear shifts (33%) were more common in the warm-season community than in the cool-season (20%). As expected, abrupt nonlinear change was common during primary succession (51%) while reversible change was rare (3%). Generally, reversible dynamics often required 2-3 decades. Analysis of long-term community change, or trajectories, with principles of movement ecology provides a quantitative basis to compare and interpret ecological resilience within and among ecosystems.

The two facets of species sensitivity: Stress and disturbance on coralligenous assemblages in space and time

Marine coastal ecosystems are affected by a vast array of human-induced disturbances and stresses, which are often capable of overwhelming the effects of natural changes. Despite the conceptual and practical difficulty in differentiating between disturbance and stress, which are often used interchangeably, the two terms bear different ecological meanings. Both are external agents, but the former causes mortality or physical damage (subtraction of biomass), whereas the latter causes physiological alteration (reduction in productivity). Sensitivity of marine organisms may thus have a dual connotation, being influenced in different ways by disturbance and by stress following major environmental change. Coralligenous assemblages, which shape unique biogenic formations in the Mediterranean Sea, are considered highly sensitive to change. In this paper, we propose a method to differentiate between disturbance and stress to assess the ecological status of the coralligenous assemblages. Disturbance sensitivity level (DSL) and stress sensitivity level (SSL) of the sessile organisms thriving in the coralligenous assemblages were combined into the integrated sensitivity level of coralligenous assemblages (ISLA) index. Changes in the coralligenous status were assessed in space, along a gradient of stress (human-induced pressures) at several sites of the western Mediterranean, and in time, from a long-term series (1961-2008) at Mesco Reef (Ligurian Sea) that encompasses a mass mortality event in the 1990s. The quality of the coralligenous assemblages was lower in highly urbanised sites than that in sites in both marine protected areas and areas with low levels of urbanisation; moreover, the quality of the assemblages at Mesco Reef decreased during the last 50years. Reduction in quality was mainly due to the increase in stress-tolerant and/or opportunist species (e.g. algal turfs, hydroids and encrusting sponges), the disappearance of the most sensitive macroalgae (e.g. Udoteaceae and erect Rhodophyta) and macro-invertebrates (e.g. Savalia savaglia, Alcyonium coralloides and Smittina cervicornis), and the appearance of invasive alien algal species. Although the specific indices of SSL or DSL well illustrated the changes in the spatial or temporal datasets, respectively, their integration in the ISLA index was more effective in measuring the change experienced by the coralligenous assemblages in both space and time.

Divergent extremes but convergent recovery of bacterial and archaeal soil communities to an ongoing subterranean coal mine fire

Press disturbances are stressors that are extended or ongoing relative to the generation times of community members, and, due to their longevity, have the potential to alter communities beyond the possibility of recovery. They also provide key opportunities to investigate ecological resilience and to probe biological limits in the face of prolonged stressors. The underground coal mine fire in Centralia, Pennsylvania has been burning since 1962 and severely alters the overlying surface soils by elevating temperatures and depositing coal combustion pollutants. As the fire burns along the coal seams to disturb new soils, previously disturbed soils return to ambient temperatures, resulting in a chronosequence of fire impact. We used 16S rRNA gene sequencing to examine bacterial and archaeal soil community responses along two active fire fronts in Centralia, and investigated the influences of assembly processes (selection, dispersal and drift) on community outcomes. The hottest soils harbored the most variable and divergent communities, despite their reduced diversity. Recovered soils converged toward similar community structures, demonstrating resilience within 10–20 years and exhibiting near-complete return to reference communities. Measured soil properties (selection), local dispersal, and neutral community assembly models could not explain the divergences of communities observed at temperature extremes, yet beta-null modeling suggested that communities at temperature extremes follow niche-based processes rather than null. We hypothesize that priority effects from responsive seed bank transitions may be key in explaining the multiple equilibria observed among communities at extreme temperatures. These results suggest that soils generally have an intrinsic capacity for robustness to varied disturbances, even to press disturbances considered to be ‘extreme', compounded, or incongruent with natural conditions.

Gene transcription profiling in wild and laboratory-exposed eels: Effect of captivity and in situ chronic exposure to pollution

Aquatic ecosystems are subjected to a variety of man-induced stressors but also vary spatially and temporally due to variation in natural factors. In such complex environments, it remains difficult to detect, dissociate and evaluate the effects of contaminants in wild organisms. In this context, the aim of this study was to test whether the hepatic transcriptome profile of fish may be used to detect in situ exposure to a particular contaminant. Transcriptomic profiles from laboratory-exposed and wild eels sampled along a contamination gradient were compared. During laboratory experiments, fish were exposed during 45days to different pollutants (Hg, PCBs, OCPs or Cd) or natural factors (temperature, salinity or low food supply) at levels close to those found in the sampling sites. A strong difference was observed between the transcriptomic profiles obtained from wild and laboratory-exposed animals (whatever the sites or experimental conditions), suggesting a general stress induced by captivity in the laboratory. Among the biological functions that were up-regulated in laboratory eels in comparison to wild eels, histone modification was the most represented. This finding suggests that laboratory conditions could affect the epigenome of fish and thus modulate the transcriptional responses developed by fish in response to pollutant exposure. Among experimental conditions, only the transcription profiles of laboratory animals exposed to cold temperature were correlated with those obtained from wild fish, and more significantly with fish from contaminated sites. Common regulated genes were mainly involved in cell differentiation and liver development, suggesting that stem/progenitor liver cells could be involved in the adaptive response developed by fish chronically exposed to pollutant mixtures.

The role of time and species identities in spatial patterns of species richness and conservation

Many conservation actions are justified on the basis of managing biodiversity. Biodiversity, in terms of species richness, is largely the product of rare species. This is problematic because the intensity of sampling needed to characterize communities and patterns of rarity or to justify the use of surrogates has biased sampling in favor of space over time. However, environmental fluctuations interacting with community dynamics lead to temporal variations in where and when species occur, potentially affecting conservation planning by generating uncertainty about results of species distribution modeling (including range determinations), selection of surrogates for biodiversity, and the proportion of biodiversity composed of rare species. To have confidence in the evidence base for conservation actions, one must consider whether temporal replication is necessary to produce broad inferences. Using approximately 20 years of macrofaunal data from tidal flats in 2 harbors, we explored variation in the identity of rare, common, restricted range, and widespread species over time and space. Over time, rare taxa were more likely to increase in abundance or occurrence than to remain rare or disappear and to exhibit temporal patterns in their occurrence. Space-time congruency in ranges (i.e., spatially widespread taxa were also temporally widespread) was observed only where samples were collected across an environmental gradient. Fifteen percent of the taxa in both harbors changed over time from having spatially restricted ranges to having widespread ranges. Our findings suggest that rare species can provide stability against environmental change, because the majority of species were not random transients, but that selection of biodiversity surrogates requires temporal validation. Rarity needs to be considered both spatially and temporally, as species that occur randomly over time are likely to play a different role in ecosystem functioning than those exhibiting temporal structure (e.g., seasonality). Moreover, temporal structure offers the opportunity to place management and conservation activities within windows of maximum opportunity.

Multiple stressors, nonlinear effects and the implications of climate change impacts on marine coastal ecosystems

Global climate change will undoubtedly be a pressure on coastal marine ecosystems, affecting not only species distributions and physiology but also ecosystem functioning. In the coastal zone, the environmental variables that may drive ecological responses to climate change include temperature, wave energy, upwelling events and freshwater inputs, and all act and interact at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. To date, we have a poor understanding of how climate-related environmental changes may affect coastal marine ecosystems or which environmental variables are likely to produce priority effects. Here we use time series data (17 years) of coastal benthic macrofauna to investigate responses to a range of climate-influenced variables including sea-surface temperature, southern oscillation indices (SOI, Z4), wind-wave exposure, freshwater inputs and rainfall. We investigate responses from the abundances of individual species to abundances of functional traits and test whether species that are near the edge of their tolerance to another stressor (in this case sedimentation) may exhibit stronger responses. The responses we observed were all nonlinear and some exhibited thresholds. While temperature was most frequently an important predictor, wave exposure and ENSO-related variables were also frequently important and most ecological variables responded to interactions between environmental variables. There were also indications that species sensitive to another stressor responded more strongly to weaker climate-related environmental change at the stressed site than the unstressed site. The observed interactions between climate variables, effects on key species or functional traits, and synergistic effects of additional anthropogenic stressors have important implications for understanding and predicting the ecological consequences of climate change to coastal ecosystems.

Conceptualizing Forest Degradation

Forest degradation is a global environmental issue, but its definition is problematic. Difficulties include choosing appropriate reference states, timescales, thresholds, and forest values. We dispense with many such ambiguities by interpreting forest degradation through the frame of ecological resilience, and with reference to forest dynamics. Specifically, we define forest degradation as a state of anthropogenically induced arrested succession, where ecological processes that underlie forest dynamics are diminished or severely constrained. Metrics of degradation might include those that reflect ecological processes shaping community dynamics, notably the regeneration of plant species. Arrested succession implies that management intervention is necessary to recover successional trajectories. Such a definition can be applied to any forest ecosystem, and can also be extended to other ecosystems.

Detecting the exposure to Cd and PCBs by means of a non-invasive transcriptomic approach in laboratory and wild contaminated European eels (Anguilla anguilla)

Detecting and separating specific effects of contaminants in a multi-stress field context remain a major challenge in ecotoxicology. In this context, the aim of this study was to assess the usefulness of a non-invasive transcriptomic method, by means of a complementary DNA (cDNA) microarray comprising 1000 candidate genes, on caudal fin clips. Fin gene transcription patterns of European eels (Anguilla anguilla) exposed in the laboratory to cadmium (Cd) or a polychloro-biphenyl (PCBs) mixture but also of wild eels from three sampling sites with differing contamination levels were compared to test whether fin clips may be used to detect and discriminate the exposure to these contaminants. Also, transcriptomic profiles from the liver and caudal fin of eels experimentally exposed to Cd were compared to assess the detection sensitivity of the fin transcriptomic response. A similar number of genes were differentially transcribed in the fin and liver in response to Cd exposure, highlighting the detection sensitivity of fin clips. Moreover, distinct fin transcription profiles were observed in response to Cd or PCB exposure. Finally, the transcription profiles of eels from the most contaminated site clustered with those from laboratory-exposed fish. This study thus highlights the applicability and usefulness of performing gene transcription assays on non-invasive tissue sampling in order to detect the in situ exposure to Cd and PCBs in fish.

Threshold and resilience management of coupled urbanization and water environmental system in the rapidly changing coastal region

The concept of thresholds shows important implications for environmental and resource management. Here we derived potential landscape thresholds which indicated abrupt changes in water quality or the dividing points between exceeding and failing to meet national surface water quality standards for a rapidly urbanizing city on the Eastern Coast in China. The analysis of landscape thresholds was based on regression models linking each of the seven water quality variables to each of the six landscape metrics for this coupled land-water system. We found substantial and accelerating urban sprawl at the suburban areas between 2000 and 2008, and detected significant nonlinear relations between water quality and landscape pattern. This research demonstrated that a simple modeling technique could provide insights on environmental thresholds to support more-informed decision making in land use, water environmental and resilience management.

Selective logging: do rates of forest turnover in stems, species composition and functional traits decrease with time since disturbance? - A 45 year perspective

Selective logging, the targeted harvesting of timber trees in a single cutting cycle, is globally rising in extent and intensity. Short-term impacts of selective logging on tropical forests have been widely investigated, but long-term effects on temporal dynamics of forest structure and composition are largely unknown. Understanding these long-term dynamics will help determine whether tropical forests are resilient to selective logging and inform choices between competing demands of anthropogenic use versus conservation of tropical forests. Forest dynamics can be studied within the framework of succession theory, which predicts that temporal turnover rates should decline with time since disturbance. Here, we investigated the temporal dynamics of a tropical forest in Kibale National Park, Uganda over 45 years following selective logging. We estimated turnover rates in stems, species composition, and functional traits (wood density and diameter at breast height), using observations from four censuses in 1989, 1999, 2006, and 2013, of stems ≥ 10 cm diameter within 17 unlogged and 9 logged 200 × 10 m vegetation plots. We used null models to account for interdependencies among turnover rates in stems, species composition, and functional traits. We tested predictions that turnover rates should be higher and decrease with increasing time since the selective logging event in logged forest, but should be less temporally variable in unlogged forest. Overall, we found higher turnover rates in logged forest for all three attributes, but turnover rates did not decline through time in logged forest and was not less temporally variable in unlogged forest. These results indicate that successional models that assume recovery to pre-disturbance conditions are inadequate for predicting the effects of selective logging on the dynamics of the tropical forest in Kibale. Selective logging resulted in persistently higher turnover rates, which may compromise the carbon storage capacity of Kibale's forest. Selective logging effects may also interact with effects from other global trends, potentially causing major long-term shifts in the dynamics of tropical forests. Similar studies in tropical forests elsewhere will help determine the generality of these conclusions. Ultimately, the view that selective logging is a benign approach to the management of tropical forests should be reconsidered in the light of studies of the effects of this practice on long-term forest dynamics.

Community rescue in experimental metacommunities

The conditions that allow biodiversity to recover following severe environmental degradation are poorly understood. We studied community rescue, the recovery of a viable community through the evolutionary rescue of many populations within an evolving community, in metacommunities of soil microbes adapting to a herbicide. The metacommunities occupied a landscape of crossed spatial gradients of the herbicide (Dalapon) and a resource (glucose), whereas their constituent communities were either isolated or connected by dispersal. The spread of adapted communities across the landscape and the persistence of communities when that landscape was degraded were strongly promoted by dispersal, and the capacity to adapt to lethal stress was also related to community size and initial diversity. After abrupt and lethal stress, community rescue was most frequent in communities that had previously experienced sublethal levels of stress and had been connected by dispersal. Community rescue occurred through the evolutionary rescue of both initially common taxa, which remained common, and of initially rare taxa, which grew to dominate the evolved community. Community rescue may allow productivity and biodiversity to recover from severe environmental degradation.

Cross-Scale Variation in Biodiversity-Environment Links Illustrated by Coastal Sandflat Communities

Spatial variation in the composition of communities is the product of many biotic and environmental interactions. A neglected factor in the analysis of community distribution patterns is the multi-scale nature of the data, which has implications for understanding ecological processes and the development of conservation and environmental management practice. Drawing on recently established multivariate spatial analyses, we investigate whether including relationships between spatial structure and abiotic variables enable us to better discern patterns of species and communities across scales. Data comprised 1200 macrozoobenthic samples collected over an array of distances (30 cm to 1 km) in three New Zealand harbours, as well as commonly used abiotic variables, such as sediment characteristics and chlorophyll a concentrations, measured at the same scales. Moran’s eigenvector mapping was used to extract spatial scales at which communities were structured. Benthic communities, representing primarily bivalves, polychaetes and crustaceans, were spatially structured at four spatial scales, i.e. >100 m, 50–100 m, 50–15 m, and < 15 m. A broad selection of abiotic variables contributed to the large-scale variation, whereas a more limited set explained part of the fine-scale community structure. Across all scales, less than 30% of the variation in spatial structure was captured by our analysis. The large number of species (48) making up the 10 highest species scores based on redundancy analyses illustrate the variability of species-scale associations. Our results emphasise that abiotic variables and biodiversity are related at all scales investigated and stress the importance of assessing the relationship between environmental variables and the abundance and distribution of biological assemblages across a range of different scales.

Post-settlement dispersal: the neglected link in maintenance of soft-sediment biodiversity

Seafloor integrity is threatened by disturbances owing to human activities. The capacity of the system to recover from disturbances, as well as maintain resilience and function, depends on dispersal. In soft-sediment systems, dispersal continues after larval settlement, but there are very few measurements of how far the post-settlers disperse in nature. Spatial scales of post-settlement dispersal are, however, likely to be similar to pelagic larval dispersal because of continued, frequent, small-scale dispersal over longer periods. The consequences of this dispersal may be more important for the maintenance of biodiversity and metacommunity dynamics than is pelagic larval dispersal, because of the greater size and competency of the dispersers. We argue that an increased empirical understanding of post-settlement dispersal processes is key for predicting how benthic communities will respond to local disturbances and shrinking regional species pools, with implications for monitoring, managing and conserving biodiversity.